MARKET UPDATE

AIR
Mar 2024
CEVA AIR MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 2024

At a Glance…

US retail spend increase gives rise to airfreight market,

alongside demand from specific markets such as
Bangladesh and Vietnam – a specific response to
resorting to airfreight to combat the Red Sea/Suez Canal
closure

The economy slump in Europe is leading to low air

demand coupled with improved inventories to not have to
resort to higher priced airfreight

Demand from India remains strong – largely consumer

driven but also growth in sectors such as tech/electronics
where manufacturing in India remains opportunistic and
emerging as an important element in air freight volumes
GLOBAL ECONOMY: AIR

Global Indicators
Purchasing Industrial Production Semiconductor Customer Confidence
Manufacturing Index Index Sales Indice
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Industrial Production in the United States The Semiconductor Industry Association The University of Michigan consumer
was revised upward to 52.2 in February decreased 0.23 percent in February of (SIA) announced global semiconductor sentiment for the US was revised
2024 surpassing a preliminary of 51.5 and 2024 over the same month in the previous industry sales totalled $47.6 billion during higher to 79 in January 2024 from a
January’s 50.7. year. the month of January 2024 preliminary of 78.9, the highest since
July 2021.
The Caixin China General Manufacturing China's industrial production expanded This is an increase of 15.2% compared to
PMI was up to 50.9 in February 2024 by 7.0% year-on-year in January- the January 2023 total of $41.3 billion but a Consumer Confidence in China increased
from 50.8 in the prior two months, beating February 2024 combined, faster than a decrease of 2.1% from the December 2023 to 88.90 points in January from 87.60
market estimates of 50.6. It was the fourth6.8% growth in December 2023 and total of $48.7 billion. points in December of 2023. Consumer
straight month of growth in factory activity
beating market forecasts of 5%. It was the Confidence in China averaged 109.90
and the strongest pace since August 2023. fastest expansion in industrial output in Regionally, year-to-year sales were up in
points from 1991 until 2024, reaching an all
almost two years, boosted by robust China (26.6%), the Americas (20.3%), and
time high of 127.00 points in February of
The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI activities in manufacturing, utilities and Asia Pacific/All other (12.8%), but down in
2021 and a record low of 85.50 points in
was revised higher to 46.5 in February mining. Japan (-6.4%) and Europe (-1.4%). Month-
November of 2022
2024, up from a preliminary estimate of to-month sales were down across all
46.1 and compared with January's 10- Industrial production in the Euro Area markets: Asia Pacific/All Other (-1.4%), the The consumer confidence indicator in the
month high of 46.6. The latest reading plunged by 6.7% year-on-year in Americas (-1.5%), China (-2.5%), Europe (- Euro Area rose by 0.6 points from the
signalled the second-slowest deterioration January 2024, marking a stark reversal 2.8%), and Japan (-3.9%). previous month to -15.5 in February
in manufacturing sector conditions since from the downwardly revised 0.2% growth 2024, in line with preliminary estimates.
March 2023, with Germany driving the recorded in December and faring much Across the European Union as a whole,
overall deterioration and contracting the worse than market projections of a 2.9% consumer sentiment went up by 0.4 points
most in four months decline to -15.8 thanks to consumers’ less negative
views regarding their household’s past
financial situation and their intentions to
GT2:GOV make major purchases, which were partly
2 Year 4.63% +87 (1 year)
offset by lower expectations about the
general economic situation in their country.
GT10:GOV
10 Year 4.00% +88 (1 year)

SOURCES: World Economic outlook IMF; semiconductors.org; tradingeconomics.com; STATISTICA:

Bloomberg.com
 Airfreight Indicators

Capacity: Global capacity shows increase of

6.8% YTD on YoY% growth. Top 10 capacity
markets all show YoY growth, notably from
China, Japan and India.

Demand: Demand shows a decline in top 10

markets except India which has risen by 1%.

SOURCES: ACCENTURE, DREWRY

Air Freight Market Trends – Air Cargo Trends week 10 - 2024
Tonnages up +9% 2WoW comparison
WoW comparison shows total worldwide
tonnages were flat. Deciphered from
recovery by +3% in week 9 and by +14%
the previous week, following a -11% drop
around the LNY holiday week
Average global rates showed slight increase
(+2%) to $2.32 per kilo, roughly their level in
the weeks leading up to LNY
Tonnages were up +9% (2Wo2W), driven
mainly by a post-LNY rebound in demand
from Asia Pacific
Tonnages were up by +28% from Asia
Pacific origin points. Including+38% rise
from Asia Pacific to Middle East & South
Asia (MESA); Large rise to Europe (+29%),
North America (+26%), and to other Asia
Pacific destinations (+23%).
Tonnages from MESA origins significant rise
YoY (+17%), although on a 2Wo2W basis
they have slipped slightly (-4%), suggesting
a possible weakening from the extreme
highs of previous weeks.

Source: WorldACD Air

cargo
Air Freight Market trends – Week 10 2024
Global rates -14% YoY level but Capacity up +9%
Global rates are -14% below
levels of same week last year
at US$2.32 per kilo*
Still significantly above pre-
COVID levels at +29%
compared with March 2019
Middle East South Africa
continues to show strongest
average rates on a 2WO2W
average at +6%
Middle East and Africa is the
only origin to show positive
YOY change at +17%
Overall worldwide air cargo
capacity remains up by +9%
on 2022
High increases export Asia
Pacific (+18%) and export
Central & South America
(+14%) YOY

* Rates from region to region varies at different rate levels

Source : WorldACD Air cargo

 AIR MARKET UPDATE FEB 24

Global Airfreight Trade Lane Growth – December 2023

Global demand is at -8.7% YTD, YoY

North America MEA & S.ASIA LATAM Europe APAC Africa

Export: -12.6% Export: +0.5% Export: -0.2% Export: -8.8% Export -10.5% Export: -1.0%
Import: -11.2% Import: -0.5% Import: -5.8% Import: -7.2% Import -12.1% Import: +0.9%
Total Trade: -11.7% Total Trade: -0.1% Total Trade: -2.8% Total Trade: -8.1% Total Trade -11.2% Total Trade: 0.1%
Capacity: +5.2% Capacity: +7.0% Capacity: +8.5% Capacity: +3.5% Capacity: +8.9%% Capacity: +12.2%
MARKET FORECASTING

Air Demand Forecasts YoY Growth based

on month 2022/2023

Jan 2024
-0.5% Y/Y

Feb 2024
-2.6% Y/Y
MARKET FORECASTING

Air Demand Forecasts YoY Growth based

on month 2022/2023

Mar 2024
-3.0% Y/Y

Apr 2024
-1.3% Y/Y
 CEVA LOGISTICS
Ocean Freight Market update

Disclaimer
Market and
Industry Data

This presentation includes estimates of market and industry data and forecasts that
we obtained from publicly available industry publications, surveys and forecasts that
we believe to be reliable, however we have not independently verified any of the
data or forecasts from these sources or the economic assumptions relied upon in
such sources.

10
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