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 SIXTH EDITION

Stats
Modeling The World
David E. Bock
Ithaca High School (Retired)

Floyd Bullard
North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics

Paul F. Velleman
Cornell University

Richard D. De Veaux
Williams College

with contributions by

Corey Andreasen
The American School of The Hague

and

Jared Derksen
Rancho Cucamonga High School
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To Greg and Becca, great fun as kids and great friends as adults,
and especially to my wife and best friend, Joanna,
for her understanding, encouragement, and love
—Dave

To my husband Rick, who is always supportive and caring and

loving, and to whom I am so grateful for everything
—Floyd

To my sons, David and Zev, from whom I’ve learned so much,

and to my wife, Sue, for taking a chance on me
—Paul

To Sylvia, who has helped me in more ways than she’ll ever know,
and to Nicholas, Scyrine, Frederick, and Alexandra,
who make me so proud in everything that they are and do
—Dick
MEET THE AUTHORS

David E. Bock taught mathematics at Ithaca High School for 35 years. He has taught
Statistics at Ithaca High School, Tompkins-Cortland Community College, Ithaca College,
and Cornell University. Dave has won numerous teaching awards, including the MAA’s
Edyth May Sliffe Award for Distinguished High School Mathematics Teaching (twice),
Cornell University’s Outstanding Educator Award (three times), and has been a finalist for
New York State Teacher of the Year.
Dave holds degrees from the University at Albany in Mathematics (B.A.) and
Statistics/Education (M.S.). Dave has been a reader and table leader for the AP Statistics
exam and a Statistics consultant to the College Board, leading workshops and institutes
for AP Statistics teachers. His understanding of how students learn informs much of this
book’s approach.

Floyd Bullard first taught high school math as a Peace Corps volunteer in Benin, West
Africa, when he was 23 years old. Today he teaches at the North Carolina School of
Science and Mathematics in Durham, North Carolina, where he has been since 1999.
Floyd has served on the AP Statistics test development committee and presents regularly
at workshops and conferences for Statistics teachers.
Floyd’s academic degrees are from the Johns Hopkins University (B.S., Applied
Mathematics, 1991), the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (M.S., Statistics, 1997),
and Duke University (Ph.D., Statistics, 2009). He plays Dungeons & Dragons regularly and
also enjoys playing the piano.

Paul F. Velleman has an international reputation for innovative Statistics education. He

is the author and designer of the multimedia Statistics program ActivStats, for which he
was awarded the EDUCOM Medal for innovative uses of computers in teaching statistics,
and the ICTCM Award for Innovation in Using Technology in College Mathematics. He
also developed the award-winning statistics program, Data Desk, the Internet site Data
and Story Library (DASL) (DASL.datadesk.com), which provides data sets for teaching
Statistics (and is one source for the datasets used in this text), and the tools referenced in
the text for simulation and bootstrapping. Paul’s understanding of using and teaching with
technology informs much of this book’s approach.
Paul taught Statistics at Cornell University, where he was awarded the MacIntyre
Award for Exemplary Teaching. He is Emeritus Professor of Statistical Science from
Cornell and lives in Maine with his wife, Sue Michlovitz. He holds an A.B. from
Dartmouth College in Mathematics and Social Science, and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in
Statistics from Princeton University, where he studied with John Tukey. His research
often deals with statistical graphics and data analysis methods. Paul co-authored (with
David Hoaglin) ABCs of Exploratory Data Analysis. Paul is a Fellow of the American
Statistical Association and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Paul is the father of two boys. In his spare time he sings with the a capella group VoXX
and studies tai chi.

v
vi MEET THE AUTHORS

Richard D. De Veaux is an internationally known educator and consultant. He has taught

at the Wharton School and the Princeton University School of Engineering, where he won
a “Lifetime Award for Dedication and Excellence in Teaching.” He is the C. Carlisle and
M. Tippit Professor of Statistics at Williams College, where he has taught since 1994. Dick
has won both the Wilcoxon and Shewell awards from the American Society for Quality.
He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and an elected member of the
International Statistical Institute (ISI). In 2008, he was named Statistician of the Year by
the Boston Chapter of the ASA and was the 2018–2021 Vice-President of the ASA. Dick
is also well known in industry, where for more than 30 years he has consulted for such
Fortune 500 companies as American Express, Hewlett-Packard, Alcoa, DuPont, Pillsbury,
General Electric, and Chemical Bank. Because he consulted with Mickey Hart on his book
Planet Drum, he has also sometimes been called the “Official Statistician for the Grateful
Dead.” His real-world experiences and anecdotes illustrate many of this book’s chapters.
Dick holds degrees from Princeton University in Civil Engineering (B.S.E.) and
Mathematics (A.B.) and from Stanford University in Dance Education (M.A.) and Statistics
(Ph.D.), where he studied dance with Inga Weiss and Statistics with Persi Diaconis. His
research focuses on the analysis of large data sets and data mining in science and industry.
In his spare time, he is an avid cyclist and swimmer. He also is the founder of the
“Diminished Faculty,” an a cappella Doo-Wop quartet at Williams College and sings bass
in the college concert choir and with the Choeur Vittoria of Paris. Dick is the father of
four children.
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface xi

PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

1 Stats Starts Here 1
So, What Is (Are?) Statistics? Statistics in a Word But What Are Data? Who and
What How the Data Are Collected More About Variables (What ?)

2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 14

The Three Rules of Data Analysis The Area Principle Frequency Tables: Making
Piles Bar Charts Pie Charts Contingency Tables: Children and First-Class Ticket
Holders First? Conditional Distributions Other Types of Graphs Is the Difference
Meaningful?

3 Displaying and Summarizing Quantitative Data 44

Histograms Stem-and-Leaf Displays (aka Stemplots) Dotplots Cumulative
Distribution Graphs Think Before You Draw, Again The Shape of a Distribution A
Measure of Center: The Median Spread: Home on the Range Spread: The Interquartile
Range 5-Number Summary Boxplots Summarizing Symmetric Distributions: The
Mean Mean or Median? What About Spread? The Standard Deviation What to Tell
About a Quantitative Variable

4 Understanding and Comparing Distributions 86

The Big Picture Comparing Groups with Histograms Comparing Groups with Boxplots
Outliers Timeplots: Order, Please! Looking into the Future *Re-expressing Data:
A First Look

5 The Standard Deviation as a Ruler and the Normal Model 110

The Standard Deviation as a Ruler Standardizing with z-Scores Shifting Data: Move
the Center Rescaling Data: Adjust the Scale Back to z-Scores When Is a z-Score
BIG? The 68–95–99.7 Rule The First Three Rules for Working with Normal Models
Determining Normal Percentiles From Percentiles to Scores: z in Reverse *Are You
Normal? Find Out with a Normal Probability Plot The Truth About Assessing Normality

Review of Part I Exploring and Understanding Data 143

PART II Exploring Relationships Between Variables

6 Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation 155
Looking at Scatterplots; Describing Associations Roles for Variables Correlation
Correlation Conditions Correlation Properties Accidental Correlation Warning:
Correlation ≠ Causation

vii
viii CONTENTS

7 Linear Regression 179

Residuals Squared Residuals as a Measure of Fit Correlation and the Line How
Big Can Predicted Values Get? The Regression Line in Real Units Residuals Revisited
The Typical Residual Size (aka Standard Error) Different Samples, Different Regression
Lines R 2—The Variation Accounted For How Big Should R 2 Be? More About
Regression Assumptions and Conditions A Tale of Two Regressions Reality Check: Is
the Regression Reasonable?

8 Regression Wisdom 215

Getting the “Bends”: When the Residuals Aren’t Straight Extrapolation: Reaching
Beyond the Data Outliers, Leverage, and Influence Lurking Variables and Causation
Working with Summary Values

9 Re-expressing Data: Get It Straight! 239

Straight to the Point Goals of Re-expression The Ladder of Powers Plan B: Attack
of the Logarithms Why Not Just Use a Curve?

Review of Part II Exploring Relationships Between Variables 264

PART III Gathering Data

10 Understanding Randomness 276
It’s Not Easy Being Random Let’s Simulate!

11 Sample Surveys 290

Idea 1: Examine a Part of the Whole Bias Idea 2: Randomize Idea 3: It’s the
Sample Size Does a Census Make Sense? Populations and Parameters Simple
Random Samples Stratified Sampling Stratified Sampling: A Simulation Cluster and
Multistage Sampling Systematic Samples The Valid Survey Lots Can Go Wrong:
How to Sample Badly

12 Experiments and Observational Studies 315

Observational Studies Randomized, Comparative Experiments The Four Principles
of Experimental Design Diagrams Does the Difference Make a Difference?
Experiments and Samples Control Treatments Blinding Placebos Blocking
Adding More Factors Confounding Lurking or Confounding? Statistical
Significance, Revisited

Review of Part III Gathering Data 343

PART IV Randomness and Probability

13 From Randomness to Probability 354
Random Phenomena The Law of Large Numbers The Nonexistent “Law of Averages”
Modeling Probability Subjective Probability The First Three Rules for Working with
Probability Formal Probability Checking for Independence
 CONTENTS ix

14 Probability Rules! 374

The General Addition Rule It Depends . . . Independence Independent ≠ Disjoint
Tables, Venn Diagrams, and Probability The General Multiplication Rule Drawing
Without Replacement Tree Diagrams Reversing the Conditioning

15 Random Variables 402

Expected Value: Center First Center, Now Spread . . . Representations of Random
Variables More About Means and Variances Continuous Random Variables

16 Probability Models 429

Searching for Simone: Bernoulli Trials The Geometric Model: Waiting for Success The
Binomial Model: Counting Successes The Normal Model to the Rescue! Should I Be
Surprised? A First Look at Statistical Significance

Review of Part IV Randomness and Probability 450

PART V From the Data at Hand to the World at Large

17 Sampling Distribution Models 460
The Sampling Distribution of a Proportion Can We Always Use a Normal Model? A
Sampling Distribution Model for a Proportion The Sampling Distributions of Other
Statistics Simulating the Sampling Distribution of a Mean The Fundamental Theorem
of Statistics Assumptions and Conditions But Which Normal? The CLT When
the Population Is Very Skewed About Variation The Real World vs. the Model World
Sampling Distribution Models

18 Confidence Intervals for Proportions 488

A Confidence Interval What Does “95% Confidence” Really Mean? Margin of Error:
Degree of Certainty vs. Precision Critical Values Assumptions and Conditions
Choosing Your Sample Size The Proof is in the Pudding

19 Testing Hypotheses About Proportions 511

Hypotheses A Jury Trial as a Hypothesis Test P-Values: Are We Surprised?
Alternative Alternatives The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing P-Values and
Decisions: What to Tell About a Hypothesis Test Hypothesis Testing by Simulation

20 More About Tests and Intervals 535

Zero In on the Null How to Think About P-Values Alpha Levels Practical vs.
Statistical Significance Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests *A 95% Confidence
Interval for Small Samples Making Errors Power

21 Comparing Two Proportions 562

Another Ruler The Standard Deviation of the Difference Between Two Proportions
Assumptions and Conditions A Confidence Interval Screen Time Before Bed:
A Cultural Difference? Everyone into the Pool The Two-Proportion z-Test *A
Permutation Test for Two Proportions

Review of Part V From the Data at Hand to the World at Large 583
x CONTENTS

PART VI Learning About The World

22 Inferences About Means 593
Getting Started: The Central Limit Theorem (Again) The Story of Gosset’s t A
Confidence Interval for Means Assumptions and Conditions Using Table T to Find
t-Values Be Careful When Interpreting Confidence Intervals A Hypothesis Test for the
Mean Intervals and Tests Choosing the Sample Size

23 Comparing Means 624

Plot the Data Comparing Two Means Assumptions and Conditions Another One
Just Like the Other Ones? A Test for the Difference Between Two Means Back into
the Pool? *The Pooled t-Test (In Case You’re Curious) Is the Pool All Wet? *A
Permutation Test for Two Means

24 Paired Samples and Blocks 652

Paired Data Assumptions and Conditions Confidence Intervals for Matched Pairs
Effect Size Blocking

Review of Part VI Learning About The World 675

Part VII Inference When Variables Are Related

25 Comparing Counts 689
Goodness-of-Fit Tests Homogeneity: Comparing Observed Distributions Chi-Square
Test of Independence Chi-Square and Causation

26 Inferences for Regression 720

The Model and the Data Assumptions and Conditions Intuition About Regression
Inference Standard Error for the Slope Regression Inference Another Example:
Breaking Up Is Hard to Predict Different Samples, Different Slopes

Review of Part VII Inference When Variables Are Related 753

Appendixes
A Selected Formulas A-1 B Guide to Statistical Software A-3 C Answers A-29
D Photo and Text Acknowledgments A-79 E Index A-87 F Tables A-97
P R E FA C E

About the Book

Yes, a preface is supposed to be “about this book”—and we’ll get there—but first we
want to talk about the bigger picture: the ongoing growth of interest in Statistics. These
days it seems Statistics is everywhere, from Major League Baseball’s innovative StatsCast
analytics to the challenges of predicting election outcomes to Wall Street Journal and New
York Times articles touting the explosion of job opportunities for graduates with degrees
in Statistics. Public awareness of the widespread applicability, power, and importance
of statistical analysis has never been higher. Each year, more students sign up for Stats
courses and discover what drew us to this field: it’s interesting, stimulating, and even fun.
Statistics helps students develop key tools and critical thinking skills needed to become
well-informed consumers, parents, and citizens. We think Statistics isn’t as much a math
course as a civics course, and we’re delighted that our books can play a role in preparing
a generation for life in the Information Age.

New to the Sixth Edition

This new edition of Stats: Modeling the World extends the series of innovations pioneered
in our books, teaching Statistics and statistical thinking as it is practiced today. We’ve
made some important revisions and additions, each with the goal of making it even easier
for students to put the concepts of Statistics together into a coherent whole.
Full inclusion of all new topics in the AP Statistics syllabus. In the Fall of 2020 the
College Board updated the AP Statistics syllabus to better reflect the way the course
is taught in colleges around the United States. With this edition of Stats: Modeling
the World we incorporate all the changes so that teachers and students can prepare
for the exam without needing to supplement the text. The new topics range from new
graphical tools like the cumulative distribution plot to stricter guidelines on how to
carry out some hypothesis tests. Every change is reflected in the exercises as well as
the text, to give students opportunities to practice what they've learned.
Updated examples, exercises, and data. We’ve updated our innovative Think/
Show/Tell Step-by-Step examples with new contexts and data. We’ve added hun-
dreds of new exercises and updated continuing exercises with the most recent data.
Whenever possible, we’ve provided those data, available through MyLab Statistics
or at www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources. Many of the examples and
exercises are based on recent news stories, research articles, and other real-world
sources. We’ve listed many of those sources so students can explore them further.

Our Goal: Read This Book!

The best text in the world is of little value if students don’t read it. Starting with the first
edition, our goal has been to create a book that students would willingly read, easily learn
from, and even like. We’ve been thrilled with the glowing feedback we’ve received from
instructors and students using the first five editions of Stats: Modeling the World. Our
conversational style, our interesting anecdotes and examples, and even our humor1 engage

1
And, yes, those footnotes!
xi
xii PREFACE

students’ interest as they learn statistical thinking. We hear from grateful instructors that
their students actually do read this book (sometimes even voluntarily reading ahead of the
assignments). And we hear from (often amazed) students that they actually enjoyed their
textbook.
Here are some of the ways we have made Stats: Modeling the World, Sixth Edition,
engaging:
Readability. You’ll see immediately that this book doesn’t read like other Statistics
texts. The style is both colloquial and informative, enticing students to actually read
the book to see what it says.
Informality. Our informal style doesn’t mean that the subject matter is covered super-
ficially. Not only have we tried to be precise, but wherever possible we offer deeper
explanations and justifications than those found in most introductory texts.
Focused lessons. The chapters are shorter than in most other texts, making it easier
for both instructors and students to focus on one topic at a time.
Consistency. We’ve worked hard to demonstrate how to do Statistics well. From
the very start and throughout the book we model the importance of plotting data, of
checking assumptions and conditions, and of writing conclusions that are clear, com-
plete, concise, and in context.
The need to read. Because the important concepts, definitions, and sample solutions
aren’t set in boxes, students won’t find it easy to just to skim this book. We intend that
it be read, so we’ve tried to make the experience enjoyable.

Continuing Features
Along with the improvements we’ve made, you’ll still find the many engaging, innovative,
and pedagogically effective features responsible for the success of our earlier editions.
Chapter 1 (and beyond). Chapter 1 gets down to business immediately, looking at
data. And throughout the book chapters lead with new up-to-the-minute motivating
examples and follow through with analyses of the data, and real-world examples pro-
vide a basis for sample problems and exercises.
Think, Show, Tell. The worked examples repeat the mantra of Think, Show, and Tell
in every chapter. They emphasize the importance of thinking about a Statistics ques-
tion (What do we know? What do we hope to learn? Are the assumptions and condi-
tions satisfied?) and reporting our findings (the Tell step). The Show step contains the
mechanics of calculating results and conveys our belief that it is only one part of the
process.
Step-by-Step examples guide students through the process of analyzing a problem by
showing the general explanation on the left and the worked-out solution on the right.
The result: better understanding of the concept, not just number crunching.
For Example. In every chapter, an interconnected series of For Example elements
present a continuing discussion, recapping a story and moving it forward to illustrate
how to apply each new concept or skill.
Just Checking. At key points in each chapter, we ask students to pause and think with
questions designed to be a quick check that they understand the material they’ve just
read. Answers are at the end of the exercise sets in each chapter so students can easily
check themselves.
 PREFACE xiii

TI Tips. Each chapter’s easy-to-read “TI Tips” show students how to use TI-84 Plus
CE Statistics functions with the StatWizard operating system. (Help using a TI-Nspire
appears in Appendix B, and help with a TI-89 is available through MyLab Statistics or
at www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources. As we strive for a sound understand-
ing of formulas and methods, we want students to use technology for actual calcula-
tions. We do emphasize that calculators are just for “Show”—they cannot Think about
what to do or Tell what it all means.
Math Boxes. In many chapters we present the mathematical underpinnings of the
statistical methods and concepts. By setting these proofs, derivations, and justifica-
tions apart from the narrative, we allow students to continue to follow the logical
development of the topic at hand, yet also explore the underlying mathematics for
greater depth.
TI-Nspire Activities. Margin pointers identify demonstrations and investigations for
TI-Nspire handhelds to enhance each chapter. They’re available through MyLab
Statistics or at www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources.
What Can Go Wrong? Each chapter still contains our innovative What Can Go
Wrong? sections that highlight the most common errors people make and the miscon-
ceptions they have about Statistics. Our goals are to help students avoid these pitfalls
and to arm them with the tools to detect statistical errors and to debunk misuses of
statistics, whether intentional or not.
What Have We Learned? Chapter-ending study guides help students review key
concepts and terms.
Exercises. We’ve maintained the pairing of examples so that each odd-numbered
exercise (with an answer in the back of the book) is followed by an even-numbered
exercise illustrating the same concept. Exercises are ordered by approximate level of
complexity.
Practice Exams. At the end of each of the book’s seven parts you’ll find a prac-
tice exam, consisting of both multiple choice and free response questions. These
cumulative exams encourage students to keep important concepts and skills in mind
throughout the course while helping them synthesize their understanding as they build
connections among the various topics.
Reality Check. We regularly remind students that Statistics is about understanding
the world with data. Results that make no sense are probably wrong, no matter how
carefully we think we did the calculations. Mistakes are often easy to spot with a little
thought, so we ask students to stop for a reality check before interpreting their result.
Notation Alerts. Clear communication is essential in Statistics, and proper notation is
part of the vocabulary students need to learn. We’ve found that it helps to call atten-
tion to the letters and symbols statisticians use to mean very specific things.
On the Computer. Because real-world data analysis is done on computers, at the end
of each chapter we summarize what students can find in most Statistics software, usu-
ally with an annotated example.

Our Approach
We’ve been guided in the choice of topics and emphasis on clear communication by the
requirements of the Advanced Placement Statistics course. In our order of presentation,
we have tried to ensure that each new topic fits logically into the growing structure of
understanding that we hope students will build.
xiv PREFACE

GAISE Guidelines
We have worked to provide materials to help each class, in its own way, follow the guide-
lines of the GAISE (Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education)
project sponsored by the American Statistical Association. That report urges that Statistics
education should
1. emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking,
2. use real data,
3. stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures,
4. foster active learning,
5. use technology for developing concepts and analyzing data, and
6. make assessment a part of the learning process.

Mathematics
Mathematics traditionally appears in Statistics texts in several roles:
1. It can provide a concise, clear statement of important concepts.
2. It can embody proofs of fundamental results.
3. It can describe calculations to be performed with data.
Of these, we emphasize the first. Mathematics can make discussions of Statistics
concepts, probability, and inference clear and concise. We have tried to be sensitive
to those who are discouraged by equations by also providing verbal descriptions and
numerical examples.
This book is not concerned with proving theorems about Statistics. Some of these
theorems are quite interesting, and many are important. Often, though, their proofs are
not enlightening to Introductory Statistics students and can distract the audience from
the concepts we want them to understand. However, we have not shied away from the
mathematics where we believed that it helped clarify without intimidating. You will find
some important proofs, derivations, and justifications in the Math Boxes that accompany
the development of many topics.
Nor do we concentrate on calculations. Although statistics calculations are gener-
ally straightforward, they are also usually tedious. And, more to the point, they are often
unnecessary. Today, virtually all statistics are calculated with technology, so there is little
need for students to work by hand. The equations we use have been selected for their focus
on understanding concepts and methods, and we point out to students when they should
use technology to do the computational heavy lifting.

Technology and Data

To experience the real world of Statistics, it’s best to explore real data sets using modern
technology. This fact permeates Stats: Modeling the World, Sixth Edition, where we use
real data for the book’s examples and exercises. Technology lets us focus on teaching
statistical thinking rather than getting bogged down in calculations. The questions that
motivate each of our hundreds of examples are not “How do you find the answer?” but
“How do you think about the answer?”

Technology. We assume that students are using some form of technology in this Statistics
course. That could include a graphing calculator along with a Statistics package or spread-
sheet. Rather than adopt any particular software, we discuss generic computer output.
“TI-Tips”—included in most chapters—show students how to use Statistics features of the
TI-84 Plus series. In Appendix B, we offer general guidance (by chapter) to help students
 PREFACE xv

get started on common software platforms (StatCrunch, Excel, MINITAB, Data Desk, and
JMP) and a TI-Nspire. MyLab Statistics and the resource site (www.pearsonhighered.com/
mathstatsresources) include additional guidance for students using a TI-89. Applets that let
students explore key concepts are also included.

Data. Because we use technology for computing, we don’t limit ourselves to small, arti-
ficial data sets. In addition to including some small data sets, we have built examples and
exercises on real data with a moderate number of cases—usually more than you would
want to enter by hand into a program or calculator. These data are included in MyLab
Statistics and at www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources.

MyLab Statistics Resources for Success

MyLab Statistics is available to accompany Pearson’s market-leading text options, includ-
ing Stats: Modeling the World, 6th Edition (access code required).
MyLab™ is the teaching and learning platform that empowers you to reach every
student. MyLab Statistics combines trusted author content—including full eText and
assessment with immediate feedback—with digital tools and a flexible platform to
personalize the learning experience and improve results for each student.
MyLab Statistics supports all learners, regardless of their ability and background,
to provide an equal opportunity for success. Accessible resources support learners for a
more equitable experience no matter their abilities. And options to personalize learning
and address individual gaps helps to provide each learner with the specific resources they
need to achieve success.

Student Resources
Motivate Your Students - Students are motivated to succeed when they’re engaged in the
learning experience and understand the relevance and power of data and statistics.
NEW Applets designed to help students understand a wide range of topics covered in
introductory statistics by presenting the opportunity to further explore data in interac-
tive versions of the distribution tables and test the randomization inference methods
described in their textbook.
xvi PREFACE

Real-World Data Examples and Data Sets - Statistical concepts are applied to
everyday life through the extensive current, real-world data examples and exer-
cises provided throughout the text. Data sets from the book are available in file
formats to apply in most statistical analysis software, including TI, Excel, and
StatCrunch.

Example Video Program Updated Step-by-Step Example videos guide students

through the process of analyzing a problem using the “Think, Show, and Tell” strategy
from the textbook.

Integrated directly into MyLab Statistics, StatCrunch® is a powerful web-based

statistical software that allows users to perform complex analyses, share data sets,
and generate compelling reports of their data. The vibrant online community offers
tens of thousands shared data sets for students to analyze.
• Collect. Users can upload their own data to StatCrunch or search a large library
of publicly shared data sets, spanning almost any topic of interest. Data sets from
the text and from online homework exercises can also be accessed and analyzed
in StatCrunch. An online survey tool allows users to quickly collect data via web-
based surveys.
• Crunch. A full range of numerical and graphical methods allows users to ana-
lyze and gain insights from any data set. Interactive graphics help users understand
statistical concepts, and are available for export to enrich reports with visual repre-
sentations of data.
• Communicate. Reporting options help users create a wide variety of visually
appealing representations of their data.
 PREFACE xvii

StatCrunch is also available by itself to qualified adopters. It can be accessed on your

laptop, smartphone, or tablet when you visit the StatCrunch website from your device’s
browser.

Technology Tutorial Videos offer step-by-step guidance with popular technologies,

including Excel, JMP, Minitab, SPSS, and R. These are also available within the
homework learning aids for every exercise where technology is expected to perform
statistical procedures.

New! Personal Inventory Assessments are a collection of online exercises designed

to promote self-reflection and metacognition in students. These 33 assessments include
topics such as a Stress Management Assessment, Diagnosing Poor Performance and
Enhancing Motivation, and Time Management Assessment.

Address Under Preparedness - Each student learns at a different pace. Personalized

learning pinpoints the precise areas where each student needs practice, giving all students
the support they need—when and where they need it—to be successful.
Getting Ready questions can be used to help students prepare for key statistical
procedures with a full understanding of prerequisite mathematic skills and concepts.
Personalized Homework - With Personalized Homework, students take a quiz or
test and receive a subsequent homework assignment that is personalized based on
their performance. This way, students can focus on just the topics they have not yet
mastered.

Other student resources include:

Pearson eText - The eText is “reflowable” to adapt to use on tablets and smart-
phones. You can insert your own highlights, notes, and bookmarks. It is also fully
accessible using screen-readers. Download the Pearson+ app to access your eText on
your smartphone or tablet anytime—even offline.
Study Slides - PowerPoint slides featuring key ideas and examples are available
for students within the Video & Resource Library. These slides are compatible with
screen readers.
Graphing Calculator Manual, is organized to follow the sequence of topics in
the text, and is an easy-to-follow, step-by-step guide on how to use the TI-84 Plus,
TI-Nspire, and Casio graphing calculators. It provides worked-out examples to help
students fully understand and use the graphing calculator.
xviii PREFACE

StatTalk Videos follow fun-loving statistician Andrew Vickers as he takes to the

streets of Brooklyn, NY to demonstrate important statistical concepts through inter-
esting stories and real-life events. This series of 24 videos will actually help you
understand statistics.

Instructor Resources
Your course is unique. So whether you’d like to build your own assignments, teach mul-
tiple sections, or set prerequisites, MyLab gives you the flexibility to easily create your
course to fit your needs.

Pre-Built Assignments are designed to maximize students’ performance. All assignments

are fully editable to make your course your own.

MyLab Statistics Question Library is correlated to the exercises in the text, reflect-
ing each author’s approach and learning style. They regenerate algorithmically to give
students unlimited opportunity for practice and mastery. Below are a few exercise types
available to assign:
▼ New! Applet Exercises use the enhanced applets to solve key statistical questions as
they explore real-world, modern data through simulations.
Updated! Real data exercises with jittering applied where necessary to ensure appro-
priate variation.
T exercises identify problems that require the use of technology to perform the statis-
tical procedures.
Getting Ready questions. 450 questions that help prepare students with the math-
ematical foundations to explore statistical processes and procedures.
Conceptual Questions. 1,000 questions that go beyond the textbook problems to
assess students conceptual understanding of critical statistical topics.

Learning Catalytics - With Learning Catalytics, you’ll hear from every student when it
matters most. You pose a variety of questions in class (choosing from pre-loaded questions
or your own) that help students recall ideas, apply concepts, and develop critical-thinking
skills. Your students respond using their own smartphones, tablets, or laptops.

Performance Analytics enable instructors to see and analyze student performance

across multiple courses. Based on their current course progress, individuals’ perfor-
mance is identified above, at, or below expectations through a variety of graphs and
visualizations.

Now included with Performance Analytics, Early Alerts use predictive analytics to iden-
tify struggling students—even if their assignment scores are not a cause for concern. In
both Performance Analytics and Early Alerts, instructors can email students individually
or by group to provide feedback.

Accessibility - Pearson works continuously to ensure our products are as accessible as pos-
sible to all students. Currently we work toward achieving WCAG 2.1 AA for our existing
products and Section 508 standards, as expressed in the Pearson Guidelines for Accessible
Educational Web Media (https://www.pearson.com/accessibility-guidelines.html).
 PREFACE xix

Other instructor resources include:

Instructor’s Edition eText A page-for-page eText of the Instructor’s Edition is avail-
able within the Instructor Resources section of MyLab Math.
Instructional Lessons provide daily topical lessons, activities, instructional tips and
resources to guide students through each unit.
Instructor Solution Manual - The Instructor’s Solutions Manual provides complete
solutions for all end-of-section exercises.
PowerPoint Lecture Slides feature editable presentations written and designed specifi-
cally for this text, including figures and examples from the text.
Online test bank and resource guide contains chapter-by-chapter comments on
major concepts; tips on presenting topics (and what to avoid); teaching examples; sug-
gested assignments; Web links and lists of other resources; additional sets of chapter
quizzes, unit tests, and investigative tasks; TI-Nspire activities; and suggestions for
projects.
TestGen enables instructors to build, edit, print, and administer tests using a comput-
erized bank of questions developed to cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is
algorithmically based, allowing instructors to create multiple but equivalent versions
of the same questions or test with the click of a button. Instructors can also modify
test bank questions or add new questions. The software and test bank are available for
download at pearson.com.
Learn more at pearson.com/mylab/statistics
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many people have contributed to this book in all five of its editions. This edition would
have never seen the light of day without the assistance of the incredible team at Pearson.
Deirdre Lynch, was central to the genesis, development, and realization of the book
from day one. Suzy Bainbridge and Laura Briskman, Content Strategy Managers; Karen
Montgomery, Product Manager; and Dawn Murrin, Director, Content Strategy, provided
much needed support. Rachel Reeve, Senior Content Producer; Prerna Rochlani, Assistant
Content Producer; and Monique Bettencourt, Associate Analyst, were essential in manag-
ing all of the behind-the-scenes work that needed to be done for both the print book and the
eText. Jean Choe, Producer, and Bob Carroll, Manager Content Development, put together
a top-notch media package for this book. Demetrius Hall, Product Marketer, and Jordan
Longoria, Marketing Manager, Savvas Learning Company, are spreading the word about
Stats: Modeling the World. Carol Melville, Manufacturing Buyer, LSC Communications,
worked miracles to get the print book in your hands. Special thanks go out to Straive
for the wonderful work they did on this book, and in particular to Rose Kernan, Project
Manager, for her close attention to detail, for keeping the cogs from getting into the wheels
where they often wanted to wander, and for keeping the authors on task and on schedule
. . . no easy feat!
We would like to thank Corey Andreasen of The American School of The Hague and
Jared Derksen of Rancho Cucamonga High School for their invaluable help with updat-
ing the exercises, answers, and data sets. We’d also like to thank our accuracy checkers
whose monumental task was to make sure we said what we thought we were saying. They
are Bill Craine, Lansing High School, Lansing, NY and Adam Yankay, Highland School,
Warrenton VA.
We extend our sincere thanks for the suggestions and contributions made by the following
reviewers, focus group participants, and class-testers:

John Arko Bill Craine Landy Godbold

Glenbrook South High School, Lansing High School, NY The Westminster Schools, GA
IL
Sybil Coley Randall Groth
Kathleen Arthur Woodward Academy, GA Illinois State University, IL
Shaker High School, NY
Kevin Crowther Donnie Hallstone
Allen Back Lake Orion High School, MI Green River Community
Cornell University, NY College, WA
Caroline DiTullio
Beverly Beemer Summit High School, NJ Howard W. Hand
Ruben S. Ayala High St. Marks School of Texas, TX
Jared Derksen
School, CA
Rancho Cucamonga High Bill Hayes
Judy Bevington School, CA Foothill High School, CA
Santa Maria High School, CA
Sam Erickson Miles Hercamp
Susan Blackwell North High School, WI New Palestine High School,
First Flight High School, NC IN
Laura Estersohn
Gail Brooks Scarsdale High School, NY Michelle Hipke
McLennan Community Glen Burnie Senior High
Laura Favata
College, TX School, MD
Niskayuna High School, NY
Walter Brown Carol Huss
David Ferris
Brackenridge High School, Independence High School,
Noblesville High School, IN
TX NC
Linda Gann
Darin Clifft Sam Jovell
Sandra Day O’Connor High
Memphis University School, Niskayuna High School, NY
School, TX
TN

xx
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxi

Peter Kaczmar John Maceli Karl Ronning

Lower Merion High School,
PA
John Kotmel
Lansing High School, NY
Beth Lazerick
St. Andrews School, FL
Michael Legacy
Greenhill School, TX
Guillermo Leon
Coral Reef High School, FL
John Lieb
The Roxbury Latin School,
MA
Mark Littlefield
Newburyport High School, MA
Martha Lowther
The Tatnall School, DE
Ithaca College, NY Davis Senior High School, CA
Jim Miller Bruce Saathoff
Alta High School, UT Centennial High School, CA
Timothy E. Mitchell Agatha Shaw
King Philip Regional High Valencia Community College,
School, MA FL
Maxine Nesbitt Murray Siegel
Carmel High School, IN Sam Houston State University,
TX
Jordan Pare
St. Francis High School Chris Sollars
CA Alamo Heights High School,
TX
Elizabeth Ann Przybysz
Dr. Phillips High School, FL Darren Starnes
The Webb Schools, CA
Diana Podhrasky
Hillcrest High School, TX Jane Viau
The Frederick Douglass
Rochelle Robert
Academy, NY
Nassau Community College, NY

And we’d be especially remiss if we did not applaud the outstanding team of teachers
whose creativity, insight, knowledge, and dedication create the many valuable resources
so helpful for Statistics students and their instructors:
Corey Andreasen John Diehl Janice Ricks
The American School of Hindsdale Central High Marple Newtown High School,
The Hague School, IL PA
Anne Carroll Lee Kucera Jane Viau
Kennett High School, PA Capistrano Valley High The Frederick Douglass
School, CA Academy, NY
Ruth Carver
Germantown Academy in Fort John Mahoney Webster West
Washington, PA Benjamin Banneker Academic Creator of StatCrunch
High School, Washington,
William B. Craine Adam Yankay
D.C.
Lansing High School, NY Highland School, Warrenton
Susan Peters VA
Jared Derksen
University of Louisville, KY
Rancho Cucamonga High
School, CA

David Bock
Floyd Bullard
Paul Velleman
Richard De Veaux

But where shall I
begin?” asked Alice. “Begin
at the beginning,” the King
said gravely, “and go on till
you come to the end: then
stop.
—Lewis Carroll,
Alice’s Adventures
in Wonderland
So, What Is (Are?) Statistics?
1
Stats Starts
Here1
S
tatistics gets no respect. People say things like “You can prove anything with Statis-
tics.” People will write off a claim based on data as “just a statistical trick.” And a
Statistics course may not be your friends’ first choice for a fun elective.
But Statistics is fun! That’s probably not what you heard on the street, but it’s true.
Statistics is about how to think clearly with data. We’ll talk about data in more detail soon,
but for now, think of data as any collection of numbers, characters, images, or other items
that provide information about something. Whenever there are data and a need for under-
standing the world, you’ll find Statistics. A little practice thinking statistically is all it
takes to start seeing the world more clearly and accurately.
How does it feel to live near the dawn of the Information Age? More data are collected
today (a lot of it on us) than ever before in human history. Consider these examples of
how data are used today:
◆ If you have a Facebook account, you have probably noticed that the ads you see online
tend to match your interests and activities. Coincidence? Hardly. According to Wired
magazine,2 much of your personal information has probably been sold to marketing
or tracking companies. Why would Facebook give you a free account and let you
1
We could have called this chapter “Introduction,” but nobody reads the introduction, and we wanted you to read
this. We feel safe admitting this here, in the footnote, because nobody reads footnotes either.
2
http://www.wired.com/story/wired-guide-personal-data-collection/
1
2 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

upload as much as you want to its site? Because your data are valuable! Using your
Q: What is Statistics? Facebook profile, a company might build a profile of your interests and activities:
A: Statistics is a way of what movies and sports you like; your age, sex, education level, and hobbies; where
reasoning, along with a you live; and, of course, who your friends are and what they like.
collection of tools and ◆ Americans spend an average of 4.9 hours per day on their smartphones. About 9.4 tril-
methods, designed to help
lion text messages are sent each year.3 Some of these messages are sent or read while
us understand the world.
the sender or the receiver is driving. How dangerous is texting while driving?
Q: What are statistics? How can we study the effect of texting while driving? One way is to measure reac-
A: Statistics (plural) are tion times of drivers faced with an unexpected event while driving and texting. Research-
particular calculations made ers at the University of Utah tested drivers on simulators that could present emergency
from data. situations. They compared reaction times of sober drivers, drunk drivers, and texting
Q: So what is data? drivers.4 The results were striking. The texting drivers actually responded more slowly
and were more dangerous than drivers who were above the legal limit for alcohol.
A: You mean, “What are data?”
Data is the plural form. The ◆ Many athletes use data-gathering devices while they exercise to motivate themselves and
singular is datum. to share their routines on social media. In early 2018 the New York Times reported5 that
some of this publicly available data could potentially compromise U.S. national security
Q: OK, OK, so what are data?
and even the lives of some of its military service members. Some of the data revealed the
A: Data are values along with times and routes that soldiers were running on military bases worldwide, and even routes
their context.
they traveled between bases when they were not exercising.
With this text you’ll learn how to design good studies and discern messages in data,
should you become a researcher yourself. More important—especially to those who, like
most of us, don’t become researchers—you’ll learn to judge with a more skilled and criti-
cal eye the conclusions drawn from data by others. With so much data everywhere, you
need such judgment just to be an informed and responsible citizen.

ARE YOU A STATISTIC?

The ads say, “Don’t drink and drive; you don’t want to be a statistic.” But you can’t
be a statistic.
We say: “Don’t be a datum.”

Statistics in a Word
It can be fun, and sometimes useful, to summarize a discipline in only a few words. So,
Economics is about . . . Money (and why it is good).
Psychology: Why we think what (we think) we think.
Biology: Life.
Anthropology: Who?
History: What, where, and when?
Philosophy: Why?
Engineering: How?
Accounting: How much?
In such a caricature, Statistics is about . . . Variation.
Some of the reasons why we act and think differently from one another can be
explained—perhaps by our education or our upbringing or how our friends act and think.
But some of that variation among us will always remain unexplained.6 Statistics is largely
about trying to find explanations for why data vary while acknowledging that some
amount of the variation will always remain a mystery.
3
https://www.textrequest.com/blog/texting-statistics-answer-questions/
4
“Text Messaging During Simulated Driving,” Drews, F. A. et al. Human Factors: hfs.sagepub.com/
content/51/5/762
5
“Strava Fitness App Can Reveal Military Sites, Analysts Say,” New York Times, January 21, 2018; https://www.
nytimes.com/2018/01/29/world/middleeast/strava-heat-map.html
6
And that’s a good thing!
 CHAPTER 1 Stats Starts Here 3

But What Are Data?

Amazon.com opened for business in July 1995,
billing itself as “Earth’s Biggest Bookstore.” By
1997, Amazon had a catalog of more than 2.5 mil-
lion book titles and had sold books to more than
1.5 million customers in 150 countries. In 2016, the
company’s sales reached $136 billion (more than a
27% increase from the previous year). Amazon has
sold a wide variety of merchandise, including a
$400,000 necklace, yak cheese from Tibet, and the
largest book in the world. How did Amazon become
so successful and how can it keep track of so many
customers and such a wide variety of products? The
answer to both questions is data.
But what are data? Think about it for a minute.
What exactly do we mean by “data”? You might
think that data have to be numbers, but data can be
text, pictures, web pages, and even audio and
video. If you can sense it, you can measure it. The
amount of data collected in the world is growing
exponentially.
Let’s look at some hypothetical data values that Amazon might collect:

B0000010AA 0.99 Chris G. 902 105-2686834-3759466 1.99 0.99 Illinois

Los Angeles Samuel R. Ohio N B000068ZVQ Amsterdam New York, New York, Katherine H.
Will S. 002-1663369- Beverly Hills N N 103-2628345- 0.99 Massachusetts
6638649 9238664
312 Monique D. 105-9318443-4200264 413 B00000I5Y6 440 B000002BK9 0.99
Canada Detroit 567 105-1372500-0198646 N B002MXA7Q0 Ohio Y

Try to guess what they represent. Why is that hard? Because there is no context. If we
don’t know what values are measured and what is measured about them, the values are
meaningless. We can make the meaning clear if we organize the values into a data table
such as this one:

Order Number Name State/Country Price Area Code Download Gift? ASIN Artist
105-2686834-3759466 Katherine H. Ohio 0.99 440 Amsterdam N B0000015Y6 Cold Play
105-9318443-4200264 Samuel R Illinois 1.99 312 Detroit Y B000002BK9 Red Hot, Chili Peppers
105-1372500-0198646 Chris G. Massachusetts 0.99 413 New York, New York N B000068ZVQ Frank Sinatra
103-2628345-9238664 Monique D. Canada 0.99 902 Los Angeles N B0000010AA Blink 182
002-1663369-6638649 Will S. Ohio 0.99 567 Beverly Hills N B002MXA7Q0 Weezer

Now we can see that these are purchase records for album download orders from
THE W’S: Amazon. The column titles tell what information has been recorded. Each row is about a
WHO particular purchase.
What information would provide a context? Newspaper journalists know that the lead
WHAT and in what units
paragraph of a good story should establish the “Five W’s”: who, what, when, where, and
WHEN (if possible) why. Often, we add how to the list as well. The answers to the first two ques-
WHERE tions are essential. If we don’t know what values are measured and who those values are
measured on, the values are meaningless.
WHY
HOW
4 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

Who and What

In general, the rows of a data table correspond to individual cases about Whom (or about
which—if they’re not people) we record some characteristics. Cases go by different
names, depending on the situation.
◆ Individuals who answer a survey are called respondents.
◆ People on whom we experiment are subjects or participants.
◆ Animals, plants, websites, and other inanimate subjects are often called experimental
units.
◆ Often we simply call cases what they are: for example, customers, hurricanes, or
counties.
◆ In a database, rows are called records—in the hypothetical Amazon data, purchase
records. Perhaps the most generic term is cases, but in any event the rows represent
the who of the data.7
The characteristics recorded about each individual are called variables. These are usu-
ally shown as the columns of a data table, and they should have a name that identifies What
has been measured. The data table of Amazon purchases shows that some of the variables
that Amazon collected data for were Name, Price, and whether the purchase was a Gift.
Often, the cases are a sample of cases selected from some larger population that
we’d like to understand. Amazon certainly cares about its customers, but also wants to
know how to attract all those other Internet users who may never have made a purchase
from Amazon’s site. To be able to generalize from the sample of cases to the larger popu-
lation, we’ll want the sample to be representative of that population—a kind of snapshot
image of the larger world.
We must know who and what to analyze data. Without knowing these two, we don’t
have enough information to start. Of course, we’d always like to know more. The more we
know about the data, the more we’ll understand about the world. If possible, we’d like to
know the when and where of data as well. Values recorded in 1803 may mean something
different than similar values recorded last year. Values measured in Tanzania may differ
in meaning from similar measurements made in Mexico. And knowing why the data were
collected can tell us much about its reliability and quality.

F O R EX AMPLE
Identifying the Who
Consumer Reports included an evaluation of 126 tablets from a variety of
manufacturers.
QUESTION: Describe the population of interest, the sample, and the Who of the study.
ANSWER: The population of interest is all tablets currently available. The sample
(and the Who of the study) is the particular collection of 126 tablets that the consumer
organization purchased and studied.

How the Data Are Collected

How the data are collected can make the difference between insight and nonsense. For
example, as we’ll see later, data that come from a voluntary survey on the Internet are
almost always worthless. One primary concern of Statistics is the design of sound methods

7
If you’re going through the W’s in your head and your data are measurements of objects, “Who” should still
remind you to ask, “What objects were measured?”

THINK
SHOW
TELL
More About Variables (What ?)
PRIVACY AND THE
INTERNET
You have many identifiers: a
Social Security number, a
student ID number, possibly
a passport number, a health
insurance number, and prob-
ably a Facebook account
name. Privacy experts are
worried that Internet thieves
may match your identity in
these different areas of your
life, allowing, for example,
your health, education, and
financial records to be
merged. Even online compa-
nies such as Facebook and
Google are able to link your
online behavior to some of
these identifiers, which car-
ries with it both advantages
and dangers. The National
Strategy for Trusted
Identities in Cyberspace
(www.wired.com/images_
blogs/threatlevel/2011/04/
NSTICstrategy_041511.pdf)
proposes ways that we may
address this challenge in the
near future.
CHAPTER 1 Stats Starts Here 5
for collecting data.8 Throughout this book, whenever we introduce data, we’ll provide a
margin note listing the W’s (and H) of the data. Identifying the W’s is a habit we
recommend.
The first step of any data analysis is to know what you are trying to accomplish and
what you want to know. To help you use Statistics to understand the world and make deci-
sions, we’ll lead you through the entire process of thinking about the problem, showing
what you’ve found, and telling others what you’ve learned. Every guided example in this
book is broken into these three steps: Think, Show, and Tell. Identifying the problem and
the who and what of the data is a key part of the Think step of any analysis. Make sure you
know these before you proceed to Show or Tell anything about the data.
The Amazon data table displays information about several variables: Order Number,
Name, State/Country, Price, and so on. These identify what we know about each individ-
ual. Variables such as these can play different roles, depending on how we plan to use
them. While some are merely identifiers, others may be categorical or quantitative. Mak-
ing that distinction is an important step in our analysis.
Identifiers
Amazon wants to know who you are when you sign in again and it doesn’t want to con-
fuse you with some other customer. So it assigns you a unique identifying number.9 Ama-
zon also wants to send you the right product, so it assigns a unique Amazon Standard
Identification Number (ASIN) to each item it carries. Both of these numbers are useful to
Amazon, but they aren’t measurements of anything. They’re generated by Amazon and
assigned uniquely to customers and products. Data like these values are called identifier
variables. Other examples are student ID numbers and Social Security numbers. Identifier
variables are typically used to identify single cases, not to look for patterns in collections
of data, so they are seldom used in data analysis.
Categorical Variables
Some variables just tell us what group or category each individual belongs to. Are you flu-
ent in Spanish? Do you have any piercings? What’s your favorite music genre? We call
variables like these categorical variables.10 Some variables are clearly categorical, like
the variable State/Country. Its values are text and those values tell us what category the
particular case falls into. Descriptive responses to questions are often categories. For
example, the responses to the questions “Who is your cell phone provider?” or “What is
your marital status?” yield categorical values. But numerals are sometimes used to label
categories, so categorical data can also be numerals. ZIP codes, for example, are numerals
but they convey geographic information, which is categorical.
Quantitative Variables
When a variable contains measured numerical values, we call it a quantitative variable.
Quantitative variables typically have units, such as centimeters or years, but they may also
be counts of something associated with each case, such as the number of siblings a person
8
Coming attractions: to be discussed in Part III. We sense your excitement.
9
Or sometimes a code containing numerals and letters.
10
You may also see them called qualitative variables.
6 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

has, or how many languages they speak. Whenever you look at a quantitative variable, be
sure you know what its units are. Without units, the values of a measured variable have no
meaning. It does little good to be promised a raise of 5000 a year if you don’t know
whether it will be paid in euros, dollars, pennies, yen, or bronze knuts.11

Either/Or?
Some variables with numeric values can be treated as either categorical or quantitative
depending on what we want to know. Amazon could record your Age in years. That seems
quantitative, and it would be if the company wanted to know the average age of those cus-
tomers who visit their site after 3 a.m. But suppose Amazon wants to decide which album
to feature on its site when you visit. Then thinking of your age in one of the categories
Child, Teen, Adult, or Senior might be more useful. So, sometimes whether a variable is
treated as categorical or quantitative is more about the question we want to ask than an
intrinsic property of the variable itself.

Ordinal Variables
Suppose a course evaluation survey asks, “How valuable do you think this course
will be to you?” 1 = Worthless; 2 = Slightly; 3 = Somewhat; 4 = Reasonably;
5 = Invaluable. Is Educational Value categorical or quantitative? A teacher might just
count the number of students who gave each response for her course, treating Educational
Value as a categorical variable. Or if she wants to see whether the course is improving, she
might treat the responses as the amount of perceived value—in effect, treating the variable as
quantitative.
But what are the units? There is certainly an order of perceived worth: Higher num-
bers indicate higher perceived worth. A course that averages 4.2 seems more valuable than
one that averages 2.1. But is it twice as valuable? Does that even mean anything? Vari-
ables like this that have a natural order but no units are often called ordinal variables.
Other examples are college class (freshman, sophomore, junior, or senior) and hurricane
level (1, 2, 3, 4, or 5). Ordinal variables can be a little tricky to analyze and for the most
part they are not considered in this text.

F O R EX AMPLE
Identifying the What and Why of Tablets
RECAP: A Consumer Reports article about 126 tablet computers lists each tablet’s
manufacturer, cost, battery life (hours), operating system (Android, IOS, or Windows)
and overall performance score (0–100).
QUESTION: Are these variables categorical or quantitative? Include units where
appropriate, and describe the Why of this investigation.
ANSWER: The variables are:
• manufacturer (categorical)
• cost (quantitative, $)
• battery life (quantitative, hours)
• operating system (categorical)
• performance score (quantitative, with no units—essentially an ordinal variable)
Why? The magazine hopes to provide consumers with information to help them
choose a tablet to meet their needs.

11
Wizarding money. Just seeing who’s paying attention.
 CHAPTER 1 Stats Starts Here 7

JUST CHECKING
In the 2004 Tour de France, Lance Armstrong made history by winning the race for an unprec-
edented sixth time. In 2005, he became the only 7-time winner and set a new record for the
fastest average speed—41.65 kilometers per hour (about 26 mph)—that stands to this day.
Then in 2012, Armstrong was banned for life for doping offenses, stripped of all his titles and
his records expunged. Here are the first three and last nine lines of a data table of all Tour de
France races. Keep in mind that the dataset has over 100 entries.
1. List as many of the W’s as you can for this dataset.

2. Classify each variable as categorical or quantitative; if quantitative, identify the units.

Country of Total Time Avg. Speed Total Distance Starting Finishing

Year Winner Origin Age Team (h/min/s) (km/h) Stages Ridden (km) Riders Riders
1903 Maurice Garin France 32 La Française 94.33.00 25.7 6 2428 60 21
1904 Henri Cornet France 20 Cycles JC 96.05.00 25.3 6 2428 88 23
1905 Louis Trousseller France 24 Peugeot 112.18.09 27.1 11 2994 60 24

2012 Bradley Wiggins Great Britain 32 Sky 87.34.47 39.83 20 3488 198 153
2013 Christopher Froome Great Britain 28 Sky 83.56.40 40.55 21 3404 198 169
2014 Vincenzo Nibali Italy 29 Astana 89.56.06 40.74 21 3663.5 198 164
2015 Christopher Froome Great Britain 30 Sky 84.46.14 39.64 21 3660.3 198 160
2016 Christopher Froome Great Britain 31 Sky 89.04.48 39.62 21 3529 198 174
2017 Christopher Froome Great Britain 32 Sky 86.34 40.997 21 3540 198 167
2018 Geraint Thomas Great Britain 32 Sky 83.28 40.210 21 3349 176 145
2019 Egan Bernal Colombia 22 INEOS 82.57.00 40.576 21 3365.8 176 155
2020 Tadej Pogacar Slovenia 21 UAE Team Emirates 87.20.05 39.872 21 3482.2 176 146

THERE’S A WORLD OF DATA ON THE INTERNET

These days, one of the richest sources of data is the Internet. With a bit of practice,
you can learn to find data on almost any subject. Many of the datasets we use in
this book were found in this way. The Internet has both advantages and disadvan-
tages as a source of data. Among the advantages is the fact that often you’ll be able
to find even more current data than those we present. The disadvantages include the
fact that references to Internet addresses can “break” as sites evolve, move, and die.
Our solution to these challenges is to offer the best advice we can to help you
search for the data, wherever they may be residing. We usually point you to a website.
We’ll sometimes suggest search terms and offer other guidance.
Some words of caution, though: Data found on Internet sites may not be formatted
in the best way for use in statistics software. Although you may see a data table in
standard form, an attempt to copy the data may leave you with a single column of
values. You may have to work in your favorite statistics or spreadsheet program to
reformat the data into variables. You will also probably want to remove commas from
large numbers and extra symbols such as money indicators ($, ¥, £); few statistics
packages can handle these.
8 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

W H AT C A N G O W R O N G ?

◆ Don’t label a variable as categorical or quantitative without thinking about the ques-
tion you want it to answer. The same variable can sometimes take on different roles.
◆ Just because your variable’s values are numbers, don’t assume that it’s quantitative.
Categories are often given numerical labels. Don’t let that fool you into thinking they have quan-
titative meaning. Look at the context.
◆ Always be skeptical. One reason to analyze data is to discover the truth. Even when you are
told a context for the data, it may turn out that the truth is a bit (or even a lot) different. The con-
text colors our interpretation of the data, so those who want to influence what you think may
slant the context. A survey that seems to be about all students may in fact report just the opinions
of those who visited a fan website. The question that respondents answered may be posed in a
way that influences responses.

TI TIPS
Working with Data
You’ll need to be able to enter and edit data in your calculator. Here’s how:

TO ENTER DATA: Hit the STAT button, and choose EDIT from the menu. You’ll see a set of columns
labeled L1, L2, and so on. Here is where you can enter, change, or delete a set of data.
Let’s enter the heights (in inches) of the five starting players on a basketball team:
71, 75, 75, 76, and 80. Move the cursor to the space under L1, type in 71, and hit ENTER
(or the down arrow). There’s the first player. Now enter the data for the rest of the team.

TO CHANGE A DATUM: Suppose the 76′′ player grew since last season; his height should be listed as
78′′ . Use the arrow keys to move the cursor onto the 76, then change the value and ENTER the correction.

TO ADD MORE DATA: We want to include the sixth man, 73′′ tall. It would be easy to simply add this new
datum to the end of the list. However, sometimes the order of the data matters, so let’s place this datum in
numerical order. Move the cursor to the desired position (atop the first 75). Hit 2ND INS (for “insert”), then
ENTER the 73 in the new space.

TO DELETE A DATUM: The 78′′ player just quit the team. Move the cursor there.
Hit DEL. Bye.

TO CLEAR THE DATALIST: Finished playing basketball? Move the cursor atop the L1. Hit CLEAR,
then ENTER (or down arrow). You should now have a blank datalist, ready for you to enter your next set
of values.

LOST A DATALIST? Oops! Is L1 now missing entirely? Did you delete L1 by mistake, instead of just
clearing it? Easy problem to fix: buy a new calculator. No? OK, then simply go to the STAT EDIT menu,
and run SetUpEditor to return lists L1 through L6 to the STAT EDIT screen.
 CHAPTER 1 Stats Starts Here 9

W H AT H AV E W E L E A R N E D ?

We’ve learned that data are information in a context.

◆ The W’s help nail down the context Who, What, When, Why, Where, and hoW.
◆ We must know at least the Who, What, and hoW to be able to say anything useful
based on the data. The Who are the cases. The What are the variables—the measure-
ments made on each case. The hoW—how the data were collected—helps us evalu-
ate the trustworthiness of the data, as does sometimes the Why.
We usually treat variables in one of two basic ways: as categorical or quantitative.
◆ Categorical variables identify a category for each case. (An exception is an identifier
variable that just names each case.)
◆ Quantitative variables record measurements or amounts of something; they must
have units.
◆ Sometimes we treat a variable as categorical or quantitative depending on what we
want to learn from it.

TERMS
Data Systematically recorded information, whether numbers or labels, together with its
context. (p. 1)
Data table An arrangement of data in which each row represents a case and each column represents
a variable. (p. 3)
Context The context ideally tells Who was measured, What was measured, hoW the data were
collected, Where the data were collected, and When and Why the study was performed.
(p. 3)
Case A case is an individual about whom or which we have data. (Who). (p. 4)
Respondent Someone who answers, or responds to, a survey. (p. 4)
Subject A human experimental unit. Also called a participant. (p. 4)
Participant A human experimental unit. Also called a subject. (p. 4)
Experimental unit An individual in a study for whom or for which data values are recorded. Human
experimental units are usually called subjects or participants. (p. 4)
Record Information about an individual in a database. (p. 4)
Variable A variable holds information about the same characteristic for many cases. (What). (p. 4)
Sample The cases we actually examine in seeking to understand the larger population. (p. 4)
Population All the cases we wish we knew about. (p. 4)
Identifier variable A categorical variable that assigns a unique value for each case, used to name or identify
it. (p. 5)
Categorical variable A variable that names categories (whether with words or numerals) is called categorical.
(p. 5)
Quantitative variable A variable in which measured numbers act as numerical values is called quantitative.
Quantitative variables always either have units or are counts of something associated
with the cases. (p. 5)
Units A quantity or amount adopted as a standard of measurement, such as dollars, hours, or
grams. (p. 5)
10 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

ON THE COMPUTER
Data

Computers are useless; Most often we find statistics on a computer using a program, or package, designed for
they can only give you that purpose. There are many different statistics packages, but they all do essentially
the same things. If you understand what the computer needs to know to do what you
answers.
want and what it needs to show you in return, you can figure out the specific details of
—Pablo Picasso most packages pretty easily.
For example, to get your data into a computer statistics package, you need to tell
the computer:
N Where to find the data. This usually means directing the computer to a file stored
on your computer’s disk or to data on a database. Or it might just mean that you
have copied the data from a spreadsheet program or Internet site and it is currently
on your computer’s clipboard. Usually, the data should be in the form of a data
table. Most computer statistics packages prefer the delimiter that marks the
division between elements of a data table to be a tab character and the delimiter
that marks the end of a case to be a return character.
N Where to put the data. (Usually this is handled automatically.)
N What to call the variables. Some data tables have variable names as the first row of
the data, and often statistics packages can take the variable names from the first
row automatically.

EXERCISES

1. Grocery shopping Many grocery store chains offer customers
a card they can scan when they check out, and offer discounts
to people who do so. To get the card, customers must give in-
formation, including a mailing address and e-mail address. The
actual purpose is not to reward loyal customers but to gather
data. What data do these cards allow stores to gather, and why
would they want that data?
2. Online shopping Online retailers such as Amazon.com keep
data on products that customers buy, and even products
they look at. What does Amazon hope to gain from such
information?
3. Parking lots Sensors in parking lots are able to detect and
communicate when spaces are filled in a large covered parking
garage next to an urban shopping mall. How might the owners
of the parking garage use this information both to attract cus-
tomers and to help the store owners in the mall make business
plans?
4. Satellites and global climate change Satellites send back
nearly continuous data on the earth’s land masses, oceans, and
atmosphere from space. How might researchers use this infor-
mation in both the short and long term to help study changes in
the earth’s climate?
5. Super Bowl Sports announcers love to quote statistics. During
the Super Bowl, they particularly love to announce when a
record has been broken. They might have a list of all Super
Bowl games, along with the scores of each team, total scores
for the two teams, margin of victory, passing yards for the
quarterbacks, and many more bits of information. Identify the
Who in this list.
6. Nobel laureates The website www.nobelprize.org allows you
to look up all the Nobel prizes awarded in Any year. The data
are not listed in a table. Rather you drag a slider to the year and
see a list of the awardees for that year. Describe the Who in this
scenario.
7. Health records The National Center for Health Statistics
(NCHS) conducts an extensive survey consisting of an inter-
view and medical examination with a representative sample of
about 5000 people a year. The interview includes demographic,
socioeconomic, dietary, and other health-related questions. The
examination “consists of medical, dental, and physiological
measurements, as well as laboratory tests administered by
highly trained medical personnel” (www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/
about_nhanes.htm). Describe the Who and the What of this
study.
8. Facebook Facebook uploads more than 350 million photos
every day onto its servers. For this collection, describe the Who
and give a plausible What.
9. Gay marriage A May 2020 Gallup poll asked, “Do you think
marriages between same-sex couples should or should not
be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as
traditional marriages?” Sixty-seven percent of respondents
said they should be valid—a new high in approval. If the
choices were “Should be valid” and “Should not be valid,”
what kind of variable is the response?

10. Gay marriage by party The May 2020 Gallup poll cited in
Exercise 9 also differentiated respondents according to the
political party they identified with. Gallup reports that 83% of
Democrats responded that gay marriage should be recognized,
but only 49% of those self-identifying as Republican did so.
What kind of variables were recorded for the responses to
the poll?
11. Medicine A pharmaceutical company conducts an experiment
in which a subject takes 100 mg of a substance orally. The re-
searchers measure how many minutes it takes for half of the
substance to exit the bloodstream. What kind of variable is the
company studying?
12. Stress A medical researcher measures the increase in heart
rate of patients who are taking a stress test. What kind of vari-
able is the researcher studying?
13. The news Find a newspaper or magazine article in which some
data are reported. For the data discussed in the article, identify
as many of the W’s as you can. Include a copy of the article
with your report.
14. Popular media Find a non-news item, such as a blog or twitter
post, that reports on a study or otherwise summarizes some data.
For the data that are discussed, identify Who and What were in-
vestigated and the population of interest. Identify the source of
the item and include a web address if the article is on-line.
(Exercises 15–20) Each of these exercises describes some data. For
each exercise, identify Who and What are described by the data, and
what the population of interest is.
15. Bicycle and pedestrian safety The New York City Depart-
ment of Transportation determined that between 2010 and
2014, left-turning vehicles were the cause of death or injury
for a considerably greater percentage (19%) of killed or
injured pedestrians and bicyclists than were right-turning
vehicles (6%).
16. Investments Some companies offer 401(k) retirement plans to
employees, permitting them to shift part of their before-tax sala-
ries into investments such as mutual funds. Employers typically
match 50% of the employees’ contribution up to about 6% of
salary. One company, concerned with what it believed was a
low employee participation rate in its 401(k) plan, sampled 30
other companies with similar plans and asked for their 401(k)
participation rates.
17. Fake news Researchers at Stanford University studied middle
school, high school, and college students in 12 states to deter-
mine their ability to evaluate the quality of information found in
different online resources. Among other things, they found that
middle school students had difficulty differentiating between
news sources and advertisements, high school students could
not tell the difference between real and fake news sources on
Facebook, and college students did not suspect potential bias
in a tweet from an activist group. (www.npr.org/sections/
thetwo-way/2016/11/23/503129818/study-finds-students-
have-dismaying-inability-to-tell-fake-news-from-real)
18. Not-so-diet soda A look at 474 participants in the San Antonio
Longitudinal Study of Aging found that participants who drank
CHAPTER 1 Stats Starts Here 11
two or more diet sodas a day “experienced waist size increases
six times greater than those of people who didn’t drink diet
soda.” (J Am Geriatr Soc. 2015 Apr; 63(4):708–15. doi:
10.1111/jgs.13376. Epub 2015 Mar 17.)
19. Blindness A study begun in 2011 examines the use of stem
cells in treating two forms of blindness: Stargardt’s disease and
dry age-related macular degeneration. Each of the 24 patients
entered one of two separate trials in which embryonic stem
cells were to be used to treat the condition.
20. Molten iron The Cleveland Casting Plant is a large, highly
automated producer of iron automotive castings for Ford
Motor Company. The company is interested in keeping the
pouring temperature of the molten iron (in degrees Fahrenheit)
close to the specified value of 2550 degrees. Cleveland Casting
measured the pouring temperature for 10 randomly selected
castings.
(Exercises 21–34) For each description of data, identify as many of
the W’s as you can from what’s given, identify what a case is, name
the variables, specify for each variable whether its use indicates that
it should be treated as categorical or quantitative, and, for any
quantitative variable, identify the units in which it was measured (or
note that they were not provided).
21. Weighing bears Because of the difficulty of weighing a bear
in the woods, researchers caught and measured 54 bears, re-
cording their weight, neck size, length, and sex. They hoped to
find a way to estimate weight from the other, more easily deter-
mined quantities.
22. Schools The State Education Department requires local school
districts to keep these records on all students: age, race or eth-
nicity, days absent, current grade level, standardized test scores
in reading and mathematics, and any disabilities or special edu-
cational needs.
23. Arby’s menu A listing posted by the Arby’s restaurant chain
gives, for each of the sandwiches it sells, the type of meat in the
sandwich, the number of calories, and the serving size in
ounces. The data might be used to assess the nutritional value of
the different sandwiches.
24. E-bikes In May of 2020 Bicycling magazine reviewed electric
bicycles. For each bike reviewed, they reported the motor size
(in watts), maximum speed (mph), wheel base (mm), brand
name, and whether the battery can be removed for security.
They also provided pictures of each bike.
25. Babies Medical researchers at a large city hospital investigat-
ing the impact of prenatal care on newborn health collected data
from 882 births during 1998–2000. They kept track of the
mother’s age, the number of weeks the pregnancy lasted, the
type of birth (cesarean, induced, natural), the level of prenatal
care the mother had (none, minimal, adequate), the birth weight
and sex of the baby, and whether the baby exhibited health
problems (none, minor, major).
26. Flowers In a study appearing in the journal Science, a research
team reports that plants in southern England are flowering
earlier in the spring. Records of the first flowering dates for
385 species over a period of 47 years show that flowering has
12 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

advanced an average of 15 days per decade, an indication of
climate warming, according to the authors.
27. Herbal medicine Scientists at a major pharmaceutical firm
conducted an experiment to study the effectiveness of an herbal
compound to treat the common cold. They exposed each patient
to a cold virus, then gave them either the herbal compound or a
sugar solution known to have no effect on colds. Several days
later they assessed each patient’s condition, using a cold severity
scale ranging from 0 to 5. (They found no evidence of the
benefits of the compound.)
28. Vineyards Business analysts hoping to provide information
helpful to American grape growers compiled these data about
vineyards: size (acres), number of years in existence, state,
varieties of grapes grown, average case price, gross sales, and
percent profit.
29. Streams In performing research for an ecology class, students
at a college in upstate New York collect data on local streams
each year. They record a number of biological, chemical, and
physical variables, including the stream name, the substrate of
the stream (limestone, shale, or mixed), the acidity of the water
(pH), the temperature (°C), and the BCI (a numerical measure
of biological diversity).
30. Fuel economy The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
tracks fuel economy of automobile models based on information
from the manufacturers (Ford, Toyota, etc.). Among the data the
agency collects are the manufacturer, vehicle type (car, SUV,
etc.), weight, horsepower, and gas mileage (mpg) for city and
highway driving.
31. Dogs detecting coronavirus In 2020, researchers at the
University of Helsinki studied whether dogs can be trained to
identify coronavirus (COVID-19) by smell. Researchers exposed
dogs who had previously learned to identify cancer by scent to
urine samples from individuals who had either tested positive or
negative for COVID-19. They reported that the dogs were quick
to learn the new scent. (Source: https://www.helsinki.fi/en/
news/health-news/the-finnish-covid-dogs-nose-knows)
32. Walking in circles People who get lost in the desert, mountains,
or woods often seem to wander in circles rather than walk in
straight lines. To see whether people naturally walk in circles
in the absence of visual clues, researcher Andrea Axtell tested
32 people on a football field. One at a time, they stood at the
center of one goal line, were blindfolded, and then tried to
walk to the other goal line. She recorded each individual’s sex,
height, handedness, the number of yards each was able to walk
before going out of bounds, and whether each wandered off
course to the left or the right. (No one made it all the way to
the far end of the field without crossing one of the sidelines.)
(STATS No. 39, Winter 2004)

Year Winner Jockey Trainer Owner Time

1875 Aristides O. Lewis A. Williams H. P. McGrath 2:37.75
1876 Vagrant R. Swim J. Williams William Astor 2:38.25
1877 Baden Baden W. Walker E. Brown Daniel Swigert 2:38
1878 Day Star J. Carter L. Paul T. J. Nichols 2:37.25

2013 Orb J. Rosario S. McGaughey Stuart Janney & Phipps Stable 2:02.89
2014 California Chrome Victor Espinoza Art Sherman California Chrome, LLC 2:03.66
2015 American Pharoah Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert Zayat Stables, LLC 2:03.03
2016 Nyquist M. Gutierrez Doug F. O’Neill Reddam Racing LLC 2:01.31
2017 Always Dreaming J. Velazquez Todd Pletcher Meb Racing Stables 2:03.59
2018 Justify M. Smith Bob Baffert China Horse Club 2:04:.20
2019 Country House Flavien Prat Bill Mott J.O. Shields et al, 2:03.93
2020 Authentic John Velazquez Bob Baffert Spendthrift Farm and others 2:00.61
Source: Excerpt from HorseHats.com. Published by Thoroughbred Promotions.

33. Kentucky Derby 2020 The Kentucky Derby is a horse
race that has been run every year since 1875 at Churchill
Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The race started as a 1.5-mile
race, but in 1896, it was shortened to 1.25 miles because
experts felt that 3-year-old horses shouldn’t run such a long
race that early in the season. (It has been run in May every
year but two—1901—when it took place on April 29, and
2020, when it was held on September 5.) The accompanying
table shows the data for the first four and eight recent
races.
34. Indy 500 2020 The 2.5-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway
has been the home to a race on Memorial Day nearly every year
since 1911. Even during the first race, there were controversies.
Ralph Mulford was given the checkered flag first but took three
extra laps just to make sure he’d completed 500 miles. When
he finished, another driver, Ray Harroun, was being presented
with the winner’s trophy, and Mulford’s protests were ignored.
Harroun averaged 74.6 mph for the 500 miles. In 2013, the
winner, Tony Kanaan, averaged over 187 mph, beating the
previous record by over 17 mph!
 CHAPTER 1 Stats Starts Here 13

Here are the data for the first five races and five recent
Indianapolis 500 races. JUST CHECKING
Answers
Time
1. Who—All Tour de France races from 1903 to 2020. What—
Year Driver (hr:min:sec) Speed (mph)
year, winner, country of origin, age, team, total time, average
1911 Ray Harroun 6:42:08 74.602 speed, stages, total distance ridden, starting riders, finishing
1912 Joe Dawson 6:21:06 78.719 riders; hoW— official statistics at race; Where—France (for
1913 Jules Goux 6:35:05 75.933 the most part); When—1903 to 2020; Why—not specified.
1914 René Thomas 6:03:45 82.474
2. Variable Type Units
1915 Ralph DePalma 5:33:55.51 89.840
Year Quantitative Years

(or identifier)
2015 Juan Pablo Montoya 3:05:56.5286 161.341
Winner Categorical
2016 Alexander Rossi 3:00:02.0872 166.634
Country of Categorical
2017 Takuma Sato 3:13:3.3584 115.395
Origin
2018 Will Power 2:59:42.6365 166.935
Age Quantitative Years
2019 Simon Pagenaud 2:50:39.27948 175.79362
Team Categorical
2020 Takuma Sato 3:10:05.0880 157.824
Total Time Quantitative Hours/minutes/seconds
Average Speed Quantitative Kilometers per hour
Stages Quantitative Counts (stages)
Total Distance Quantitative Kilometers
Starting Riders Quantitative Counts (riders)
Finishing Riders Quantitative Counts (riders)
 2
Displaying and
Describing
Categorical Data

WHO

W
People on the
Titanic hat happened on the Titanic at 11:40 on the night of April 14, 1912, is well
WHAT Name, survival known. Frederick Fleet’s cry of “Iceberg, right ahead” and the three accompany-
status, age, age ing pulls of the crow’s nest bell signaled the beginning of a nightmare that has
category, sex, price become legend. By 2:15 a.m., the Titanic, thought by many to be unsinkable, had sunk.
paid, ticket class Only 712 of the 2208 people on board survived. The others (nearly 1500) met their icy fate
WHEN April 14, 1912 in the cold waters of the North Atlantic.
The table below shows some data about the passengers and crew aboard the Titanic. Each
WHERE North Atlantic
case (row) of the data table represents a person on board the ship. The variables are the per-
HOW A variety of sources son’s Name, Survival status (Lost or Saved), Age (in years), Age Category (Adult or Child),
and Internet sites
Sex (Male or Female), Price paid (in British pounds, £), and ticket Class (First, Second, Third,
WHY Historical interest or Crew). Some of these, such as Age and Price, are quantitative variables. Others, like Sur-
vival and Class, place each case in a single category, so are categorical variables.

Table 2.1
Part of a data table showing seven Name Survived Age Gender Price Class
variables for eleven people aboard ABBING, Mr Anthony LOST 41 Male 7.55 3rd
the Titanic ABBOTT, Mr Eugene Joseph LOST 13 Male 20.25 3rd
ABBOTT, Mr Rossmore Edward LOST 16 Male 20.25 3rd
ABBOTT, Mrs Rhoda Mary “Rosa” SAVED 39 Female 20.25 3rd
ABELSETH, Miss Kalle (Karen) Marie Kristiane SAVED 16 Female 7.65 3rd
ABELSETH, Mr Olaus Jørgensen SAVED 25 Male 7.65 3rd
ABELSON, Mr Samuel LOST 30 Male 24 2nd
ABELSON, Mrs Anna SAVED 28 Female 24 2nd
ABī SA’B, Mr Jirjis Yūsuf LOST 45 Male 7.23 3rd
ABī SA’B, Mrs Sha’nīnah SAVED 38 Female 7.23 3rd
ABī SHADīD, Mr Dāhir LOST 19 Male 7.23 3rd

14
 CHAPTER 2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 15

The problem with a data table like this—and in fact with all data tables—is that you
can’t see what’s going on. And seeing is just what we want to do. We need ways to show
the data so that we can see patterns, relationships, trends, and exceptions.

The Three Rules of Data Analysis

There are three things you should always do first with data:
1. Make a picture. A display of your data will reveal things you are not likely to see in
a table of numbers and will help you to Think clearly about the patterns and relation-
ships that may be hiding in your data.
2. Make a picture. A well-designed display will Show the important features and pat-
terns in your data. A picture will also show you the things you did not expect to see:
the extraordinary (possibly wrong) data values or unexpected patterns.
3. Make a picture. The best way to Tell others about your data is with a well-constructed
picture.
We make graphs for two primary reasons: to understand data better ourselves and to
show others what we have learned and want them to understand. For either purpose, a
graph should be very easy to understand and should represent the facts of the data hon-
estly. Among other things, this requires that if a graph has axes, each should be clearly
labeled with the name of the variable it displays and the variable’s units, if it has any. Any
numeric scales should be easy to read. If colors or special symbols are used in the graph,
then there should be a clear “key” identifying what they mean.1 And all graphs should
carry a title or caption that summarizes what the graph displays.

Figure 2.1 2020 Electoral Vote, U.S. Presidential Election

Same data, different purposes In
November 2020 Joe Biden was NH
VT
elected to be the forty-sixth presi-
dent of the Unites States, winning MA
RI
306 electoral votes compared to 232 CT
won by his Republican opponent, NJ
DE
Donald Trump. Both of the maps to MD
the right accurately show where the DC

electoral votes were won, although

their purposes are different. The Biden
upper map accurately displays the Trump
shapes and relative sizes of the 50
states, but it can leave the impres-
sion that big, sparsely populated
states like Montana have more elec- 306 232
Joseph R. Biden Jr. Donald J. Trump
toral clout than they really do, and
270
that small, densely populated states TO WIN N.H. Maine

like New Jersey have less. The lower Wash.

Vt.
Minn. Mass.
map sacrifices an accurate repre- Idaho Mont. N.D. Wis. Mich.
N.Y.
sentation of states’ shapes and rela- Wyo. S.D.
tive geographic sizes in favor of Nev. Utah Colo. Neb.
Iowa
IIl. Ind. Ohio. Pa. Conn.
R.I.

visually communicating an accurate Ore.

Kan. Mo.
sense of electoral clout, by making N.M.
W.Va.
N.J.

each equally sized square represent Okla.

Ky.
Va.
one electoral vote Ariz.
Md.
Del.
The squares that are pale blue Tenn. D.C.
Ark.
Calif. N.C.
represent electoral votes in states Ga.
S.C Biden
that “flipped” between the elections of La. Miss. Ala. Trump
Texas
2016 and 2020—their electoral votes Hawaii
Win Flip
went to the Republican candidate Alaska Fla.
(Trump) in 2016 but to the Democratic
candidate (Biden) in 2020.
1
Colors and odd symbols should usually not be used if they don’t mean anything at all. Using them risks
puzzling the reader and/or distracting attention from the actual information in the graph.
16 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

The Area Principle

A bad picture can distort our understanding rather than help it. What impression do you
get from Figure 2.2 about who was on board the Titanic?

Figure 2.2
How many people were in each
class on the Titanic? From this
display, it looks as though the
service must have been great, since
most aboard were crew members. Crew
Although the length of each ship
here corresponds to the correct
number, the impression is all wrong.
In fact, only about 40% were crew.

Third

Second

First

0 300 600 900

The Titanic was certainly a luxurious ship, especially for those in first class, but
Figure 2.2 gives the mistaken impression that most of the people on the Titanic were crew
members, with a few passengers along for the ride. The problem is that the graphic uses
the ships’ lengths to indicate counts of people, but our brains tend to be more impressed
by the visual area that they take up on the page. There were about three times as many
crew members as second-class passengers, and that’s accurately represented by those two
ships’ lengths—but the ship image for the crew takes up about nine times as much space
on the page as does the one for the second-class passengers. Graphs shouldn’t leave people
with incorrect impressions—especially easily avoidable ones.
The best graphs observe a fundamental principle called the area principle, which
says that the area occupied by a part of a graph should be proportional to the magnitude of
the value it represents.

Frequency Tables: Making Piles

Categorical variables are easy to summarize in a frequency table that lists the categories
and how many cases belong to each one. For ticket Class, the categories are First, Second,
Third, and Crew:

Class Count Class %

First 325 First 14.77
Second 285 Second 12.95
Third 706 Third 32.08
Crew 885 Crew 40.21

Table 2.2 Table 2.3

A frequency table A relative frequency
of the Titanic table for the same
passengers data
 CHAPTER 2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 17

A relative frequency table like Table 2.3 displays percentages (or proportions)
rather than the counts in each category. A little information (actual counts) is lost, but the
easy interpretability of percentages is gained. (The percentages should total 100%, but the
sum can seem a little too high or too low if the individual category percentages have been
rounded.) Tables like these show what is called the distribution of a categorical variable,
because they show how the cases are distributed among the categories.

Bar Charts
Although not as visually entertaining as the ships in Figure 2.2, the bar charts in
MIND THE GAP Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4 are accurate visual representations of the distribution of
A bar graph should always ticket Class because they obey the area principle.
have gaps separating the
bars, a characteristic that
distinguishes it from its close 1000 40%
cousin the histogram—which
we’ll introduce in the next 800

Relative frequency
30%
chapter.
Frequency

WHAT A BAR CHART IS,
AND ISN’T
For some reason, some
computer programs give the
name “bar chart” to any
graph that uses bars. And
others use different names
according to whether the
bars are horizontal or vertical.
Don’t be misled. “Bar chart”
is the term for a display of
counts or proportions of
a categorical variable
using bars.
600
20%
400
10%
200
0 0
First Second Third Crew First Second Third Crew
Class Class
Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4
People on the Titanic by Ticket The relative frequency bar chart looks the same
Class With the area principle satisfied, as the bar chart (Figure 2.3) but shows the pro-
we can see the true distribution more portion of people in each category rather than
clearly. the counts.
Now it’s easy to see that the crew did not make up a majority of the people on board.
We can also easily see that there were about three times as many crew members as second-
class passengers. Whether the bar chart showing counts or the one showing percentages
is a better display depends on what you want to communicate. Because the Titanic capti-
vates so many people with its human stories, this is a case where we prefer the display of
counts, because they more easily make you think of the people behind the data.

F O R EXAMPLE
What Do You Think of Congress?
In June 2019 the Gallup poll asked a representative sample of U.S. adults how much
confidence they had in various institutions in American society. The response about
Congress was: (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx)

Great deal 4%
Quite a lot 7%
Some 36%
Very little 48%
None 4%

QUESTION: What kind of table is this? What would be an appropriate display?

18 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

ANSWER: This is a relative frequency table because the numbers displayed are per-
centages, not counts. A bar chart would be appropriate:

How Much Confidence in Congress

60

50

40

Percent
30

20

10

0
Great deal Quite a lot Some Very little None

F OR EX AMPLE
Which Gadgets Do You Use?
The Pew Research Organization asked 1005 U.S. adults which of the following elec-
tronic items they use: cell phone, smartphone, computer, handheld e-book reader
(e.g., Kindle), or tablet. The results were as follows:

Percentage (%)
Device using the device
Cell phone 86.8
Smartphone 54.0
Computer 77.5
E-book reader 32.2
Tablet 41.9

QUESTION: Is this a frequency table, a relative frequency table, or neither? How

could you display these data graphically?
ANSWER: This is not a frequency table because the numbers displayed are not
counts. Although the numbers are percentages, they do not sum to 100%. A person
can use more than one device, so this is not a relative frequency table either. A bar
chart might still be appropriate, but the numbers do not sum to 100%.

Percentage Using Each Device

100

80

60
Percent

40

20

0
Cell phone Smartphone Computer E-book reader Tablet
 CHAPTER 2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 19

Pie Charts
Count Another common display that shows how a whole group breaks into several categories is a
pie chart. Pie charts show the whole group of cases as a circle. They slice the circle into
First Class pieces whose sizes are proportional to the fraction of the whole in each category.
325 Second Class Pie charts give a quick impression of how a whole group is partitioned into smaller
285 groups. Because we’re used to cutting up pies into 2, 4, or 8 pieces, pie charts are good for
Crew
885 seeing relative frequencies near 1/2, 1/4, or 1/8. For example, you may be able to tell that
the pink slice, representing the second-class passengers, is very close to 1/8 of the total.
Third Class It’s harder to see that there were about twice as many third-class as first-class passengers.
706 Which category had the most passengers? Were there more crew or more third-class pas-
sengers? Comparisons such as these are easier in a bar chart.

Figure 2.5
Ticket Class Distribution Number
of Titanic passengers in each ticket
class
Think Before You Draw
Our first rule of data analysis is Make a picture. But what kind of picture? We don’t
have a lot of options—yet. There’s more to statistics than pie charts and bar
charts, and knowing when to use each type of graph is a critical first step in data
analysis. That decision depends in part on what type of data we have.
It’s important to check that the data are appropriate for whatever method of
analysis you choose. Before you make a bar chart or a pie chart, always check the
Categorical Data Condition: The data are counts or percentages of individuals in
non-overlapping categories.

© 2013 Randall Munroe. Reprinted with

permission. All rights reserved.

Contingency Tables: Children and First-Class

Ticket Holders First?
Only 32% of those aboard the Titanic survived. Was that survival rate the same for men
and women? For children and adults? For all ticket classes? Another way to phrase ques-
tions like these is to ask whether two variables are related. For example, was there a rela-
tionship between the kind of ticket a passenger held and the passenger’s chances of
making it into a lifeboat?
To answer that question we can arrange the counts for the two categorical variables,
Survival and ticket Class, in a table. Table 2.4 shows each person aboard the Titanic clas-
sified according to both their ticket Class and their Survival. The columns of this table
show how many people were saved and how many were lost, contingent upon their ticket
Class. And the rows show how many were in each ticket Class, contingent upon their Sur-
vival status. A table like this is called a contingency table.

Table 2.4
Class
Contingency table of ticket Class
First Second Third Crew Total
and Survival The bottom line of
“Totals” is the same as the previous Saved 203 118 178 212 711
Survival

frequency table. Lost 122 167 528 673 1490

Total 325 285 706 885 2201

Each cell of the table gives the count for a combination of values of the two variables.
The margins of the table, both on the right and at the bottom, give totals. The bottom line
of the table is just the frequency distribution of ticket Class. The right column of the table
20 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

is the frequency distribution of the variable Survival. When presented like this, in the mar-
gins of a contingency table, the frequency distribution of one of the variables is called its
marginal distribution. The marginal distribution can be expressed either as counts or
percentages.
If you look down the column for second-class passengers to the first row, you’ll find
the cell containing the 118 second-class passengers who were saved. Looking at the cell to
its right we see that more third-class passengers (178) were saved. But, does that mean
that third-class passengers were more likely to survive? It’s true that more third-class
passengers were saved, but there were many more third-class passengers on board the
ship. To compare the two numbers fairly, we need to express them as percentages—but as
a percentage of what?
For any cell, there are three choices of percentage. We could express the 118 second-
class survivors as 5.4% of all the passengers on the Titanic (the overall percent), as 16.6%
of all the survivors (the row percent), or as 41.4% of all second-class passengers (the col-
umn percent). Each of these percentages is potentially interesting.
Statistics programs offer all three. Unfortunately, they often put them all together in
each cell of the table. The resulting table holds lots of information, but it can be hard to
understand:

Table 2.5
Another contingency table of Class
ticket Class This time we see not First Second Third Crew Total
only the counts for each combina- Count 203 118 178 212 711
tion of Class and Survival (in bold) % of Row 28.6% 16.6% 25.0% 29.8% 100%
but the percentages these counts Saved
% of Column 62.5% 41.4% 25.2% 24.0% 32.3%
represent. For each count, there are
% of Table 9.2% 5.4% 8.1% 9.6% 32.3%
three choices for the percentage: by
row, by column, and by table total. Count 122 167 528 673 1490
Survival

There’s probably too much informa- % of Row 8.2% 11.2% 35.4% 45.2% 100%
Lost
tion here for this table to be useful. % of Column 37.5% 58.6% 74.8% 76.0% 67.7%
% of Table 5.6% 7.6% 24.0% 30.6% 67.7%
Count 325 285 706 885 2201
% of Row 14.8% 12.9% 32.1% 40.2% 100%
Total
% of Column 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
% of Table 14.8% 12.9% 32.1% 40.2% 100%

To simplify the table, let’s first pull out the % of table values:

Class
First Second Third Crew Total
Saved 9.2% 5.4% 8.1% 9.6% 32.3%
Survival

Lost 5.6% 7.6% 24.0% 30.6% 67.7%

Total 14.8% 12.9% 32.1% 40.2% 100%

Table 2.6
A contingency table of Class by Survival with
only the table percentages

These percentages tell us what fraction of all passengers belong to each combination
of column and row category. For example, we see that although 8.1% of the people aboard
the Titanic were surviving third-class ticket holders, only 5.4% were surviving second-
class ticket holders. Is this fact useful? Comparing these percentages, you might think that
the chances of surviving were better in third class than in second. But be careful. There
were many more third-class than second-class passengers on the Titanic, which might be
the only reason there were more third-class survivors. That group is a larger percentage of
A bell-shaped artifact from the the passengers, but that’s not really what we want to know. Overall percentages don’t
Titanic answer questions like this.
 CHAPTER 2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 21

PERCENT OF WHAT?
The English language can be tricky when we talk about percentages. If you’re asked,
“What percent of the survivors were in second class?” it’s pretty clear that we’re
interested only in survivors. It’s as if we’re restricting the Who in the question to the
survivors, so we should look at the number of second-class passengers among all
the survivors—in other words, the row percent.
But if you’re asked, “What percent were second-class passengers who survived?”
you have a different question. Be careful; here, the Who is everyone on board,
so 2201 should be the denominator, and the answer is the table percent.
And if you’re asked, “What percent of the second-class passengers survived?” you
have a third question. Now the Who is the second-class passengers, so the denomi-
nator is the 285 second-class passengers, and the answer is the column percent.
Always be sure to ask “percent of what?” That will help you to know the Who and
whether we want row, column, or table percentages.

F O R EXA MPLE
Finding Marginal Distributions
A recent Gallup poll asked 1008 Americans age 18 and over whether they planned to
watch the upcoming Super Bowl. The pollster also asked those who planned to
watch whether they were looking forward more to seeing the football game or the
commercials. The results are summarized in the table.

Sex
Male Female Total
Game 279 200 479
Response

Commercials 81 156 237

Won’t watch 132 160 292
Total 492 516 1008

QUESTION: What’s the marginal distribution of the responses?

ANSWER: To determine the percentages for the three responses, divide the count for
each response by the total number of people polled:
479 237 292
= 47.5% = 23.5% = 29.0%
1008 1008 1008
According to the poll, 47.5% of American adults were looking forward to watching the
Super Bowl game, 23.5% were looking forward to watching the commercials, and
29% didn’t plan to watch at all.

Conditional Distributions
Rather than look at the overall percentages, it’s more interesting to ask whether the chance
of surviving the Titanic sinking depended on ticket class. We can look at this question in
two ways. First, we could ask how the distribution of ticket Class changes between survi-
vors and nonsurvivors. To do that, we look at the row percentages:
Table 2.7
Class
The conditional distribution of
ticket Class conditioned on each First Second Third Crew Total
value of Survival: Saved and Lost 203 118 178 212 711
Saved
Survival

28.6% 16.6% 25.0% 29.8% 100%

122 167 528 673 1490
Lost
8.2% 11.2% 35.4% 45.2% 100%
22 PART I Exploring and Understanding Data

By focusing on each row separately, we can see the conditional distribution of class
under the condition of surviving or not. (A conditional distribution shows the distribu-
tion on one variable for a subgroup of individuals that satisfy a condition on the other
variable.) The bar charts in Figure 2.6 and Figure 2.7 show two different ways to contrast
the distribution of class among those who were saved and those who were lost.
Figure 2.6 Ticket Class Distribution by Survival Status
The distribution of ticket Class
among those who were saved,
next to that of those who 40% 40%
were lost

30% 30%
Ticket Class
First
20% 20% Second
Third
Crew
10% 10%

0% 0%
First Second Third Crew First Second Third Crew
Saved Lost

Figure 2.7 Ticket Class Distribution by Survival Status

Segmented Bar Chart The same
bars, stacked up neatly. Segmented 100%
bar charts allow clear comparisons
of distributions of categorical data.
75% Ticket Class
First
Second
50% Third
Crew

25%

0%
Saved Lost
Survival Status

Figure 2.6 shows how the distribution of ticket Class among the survivors compares
with the distribution of ticket Class among the victims. Because both distributions have
been given the same scale (percentage of their group), it makes it easier to compare the
distributions. For example, it’s pretty easy to see that first- and second-class passengers
together constitute about 45% of the survivors, but only about 20% of those who were
lost. Figure 2.7 is just like Figure 2.6, only the bars have been stacked on top of one
another, making the differences more obvious. A bar plot like this is called a segmented
bar chart, and is often a good way to compare conditional distributions.

F OR EX AMPLE
Finding Conditional Distributions
RECAP The table shows results of a poll asking adults whether they were looking
forward to the Super Bowl game, looking forward to the commercials, or didn’t plan
to watch.
Another random document with
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