ERE 722

Dr. Qasem Abdelal

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Introduction to Modeling

Ch1, Ref 1

Ref1: Modeling tools for Environmental engineers and

scientists , N. Nirmala Khandan, CRC press, 2002
WHAT IS MODELING?
Modeling can be defined as the process of application
of fundamental knowledge or experience to simulate
or describe the performance of a real system to
achieve certain goals.

In a broad sense, the goals and objectives of modeling

can be twofold: research-oriented or management-
oriented
WHAT IS MODELING?
Specific goals of modeling efforts can be one or more
of the following:

1. to interpret the system; analyze its behavior;

2. to manage, operate, or control it to achieve desired

outcomes;

3. to design methods to improve or modify it; to test

hypotheses about the system;

4. or to forecast its response under varying conditions

Modeling Types:

Physical Mathematical

Empirical
PHYSICAL MODELING
Physical modeling involves
representing the real system by a
geometrically and dynamically
similar, scaled model and conducting
experiments on it to make
observations and measurements.

The results from these experiments

are then extrapolated to the real
systems.
Dimensional analysis and similitude theories are used in the
process to ensure that model results can be extrapolated to
the real system with confidence
EMPERICAL MODELING
A “black box” type of model. This is based on a data
based approach in which past observed data are used to
develop relationships between variables.

The resulting model reflects only what changes could be

expected in the system performance due to changes in
inputs

Even though the utility value of this approach is limited to

predictions, it has proven useful in the case of complex
systems where the underlying science is not well
understood.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
Theoretical concepts and process fundamentals
are used to derive the equations that establish
relationships between the system variables.

By feeding known system variables as inputs,

these equations or “models” can then be solved to
determine a desired, unknown result
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
In the pre-computer era, mathematical modeling
could be applied to model only those problems
with closed-form solutions; application to complex
and dynamic systems was not feasible due to lack
of computational tools.

Now, things are different and several

mathematical methods are available, using
computers, to solve large sets of equations at
nearly no time.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
Unlike empirical models, the mathematical models are
based on theoretical approach. Theory helps establish
relations between variables known to be significant .

The resulting model can be calibrated using historical

data from the real system and validated using additional
data.

Mathematical modeling, in essence, involves the

transformation of the system under study from its natural
environment to a mathematical environment in terms of
abstract symbols and equations.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING

• velocity of a particle • can model the

falling under gravity temperature profile
• logarithmic growth in a one-
of a microbial dimensional heat
population transfer problem
• the concentration of
a pollutant in a one-
dimensional
diffusion problem
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
 The immediate product of the design process is a report, a
set of calculations, and/or a drawing that are abstractions of
hardware.

The subject of the design may be a process, an element or

component of a larger assembly, or an entire system.

system design: a system is defined as a collection of

components with interrelated performance.

Thermal systems, where fluids and energy in the form of

heat and work are conveyed and converted. Renewable
Energy thermal Systems are part of thermal systems

The technical engineering activity blends in an engineering

undertaking

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 The Methodology of engineering undertakings
involves analyzing the steps and procedures used
in reaching decisions. Since the starting point, the
goal, and the side conditions differ from one
undertaking to the next, the procedures must vary

Do we need to analyze the decision process ??

Yes, in complex undertakings, the analysis leads to
a more logical coordination of the many individual
efforts constituting the entire venture.

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 The flow diagram next
shows typical steps
followed in the
conception, evaluation,
and execution of the
plan.

The flow diagram

shows only how this
design procedure fits
into the larger pattern
of the undertaking.
◦ rectangular boxes
represent
considerable effort
and expenditures on
large projects.
◦ Diamond boxes
represent decisions

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 NEED OR OPPORTUNITY
The word "opportunity" has
positive connotations,
whereas "need“ suggests a
defensive action.

For example, an industrial

firm may recognize a new
product as an opportunity,
but if the company does not
then expand its line of
products, business is likely
to decline.

Thus "the introduction of a

new product is also a need.

typical needs or
opportunities lie in the
renovation or expansion of
facilities to manufacture or
distribute a current product.

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 Possible Criteria of
Success
◦ Showing a profit
◦ The degree to which
the need is satisfied
in relation to the cost
◦ Comprehensiveness
of the line of
products
◦ Being a good
neighbor !

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 Plans and designs are always directed
toward the future, for which only
probability, not certainty, is applicable.

for expressing uncertainty in the decision

making process, the normal distribution
curve (Fig. 2) is a good starting point to
measure the probability of success.

The equation of normal distribution is

The area under the curve between X1 and

X2, for example, represents the
probability P of the event's occurring
between values X 1 and X 2.

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 Example
suppose that a new product or'
facility is proposed and that the
criterion for success is a 10 percent
rate of return on the investment for
a 5-year life of the plant.

After a preliminary design, the

probability distribution curve is
shown

The expected rate of return is

attractive enough, however, to
proceed to a complete design,
including cost estimates

If the most probable return on

investment after this complete
design were 16 percent, for
example, the confidence in this
figure would be greater than the
confidence in the 18 percent figure
after the preliminary design because
costs have now been analyzed more
carefully
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 The probability distribution curves at two other
stages, after construction and after 1 year of
operation, show progressively greater degrees
of confidence in the rate of return after a 5-
year life. After 5 years, the rate of return is
known exactly, and the probability distribution
curve degenerates into a curve that is
infinitesimally thin and infinitely high.

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 To get an indication of favorable
reaction by the potential consumer,
we do market analysis

An ideal form of the information

provided by a market analysis would be a set of curves like those
in Fig. 1-5.

With an increase in price, the potential volume of sales decreases

until such a high price is reached that no sales can be made.

The sales-volume to price relationship affects the size of the

plant or process because the unit price is often lower in a large
plant.

For this reason, the marketing and plant capabilities must be

evaluated in conjunction with each other.
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 Design may be applied to
the act of selecting a single
member or part, e.g., the size
of a tube in a heat exchanger; to
a larger component, e.g., the entire shell-and-tube heat exchanger;
or to the design of the system in which the heat exchanger is only
one component.

Design activities can be directed toward mechanical devices which

incorporate linkages, gears, and other moving solid members,
electrical or electronic systems, thermal systems, environmental
systems, natural or engineered and many others.
This step is where the largest portion of engineering time is spent.

System design as an activity lies somewhere between the study and

analysis of individual processes or components and the larger
decisions, which are heavily economic.
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 The feasibility study and the
subsequent feasibility decision
refer to whether the project is
even possible.

If an undertaking is shown to be infeasible, either alternatives

must be found or the project must be dropped.

A project may be feasible, or possible, but not economical.

Infeasibility may result from:
1. unavailability of investment capital
2. Unavailability of land, labor, or favorable zoning
regulations.
3. Safety codes or other regulatory laws may prohibit the
enterprise.

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 The results from research and development (R&D)
is important input to the decision process.

Research efforts may provide the origin or

improvement of the basic idea, and development
work may supply working models or a pilot plant,
depending upon the nature of the undertaking.

The possibility of the ideas originating in the

research group should also be exploited and is
indicated by the dashed line in Fig .1-1.

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 The decision-making process involves many
iterations, Each pass through the loop improves
the amount and the quality of information and
data.

Optimization of operation: The challenge to

operate the facility in the best possible manner in
the light of factors as actual costs and prices. This
comes after the completion of the flow diagram
from before

A challenging activity occurs when the project is

not profitable and the objective becomes that of
minimizing the loss.

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Chapter 2, Reference 2

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 The distinction between designing a workable
system and an optimum system is very important
step in Designing any system.

It is so often said that "there are many possible

answers to a design problem" that the idea is
sometimes conveyed that all solutions are equally
desirable.

Actually only one solution is the optimum, where

the optimum is based on some defined criterion,
e.g., cost, size, or weight.

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 a workable system is infinitely preferable to a
nonworkable system.

Furthermore, extensive effort in progressing from a

workable toward an optimum system may not be
justified because of limitations in calendar time, cost of
engineering time, or even the reliability of the
fundamental data on which the design is based.

Sometimes, superior solutions may also be precluded

by fixing interconnecting parameters between
components and selecting the components based on
these parameters instead of letting the parameters
float until the optimum total system emerges.

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 A workable system is the one which performs the
assigned tasks within the imposed constraints, i.e.,

1. Meets the requirements of the purposes of the

system, e.g., providing the required amount of
power, heating, cooling, or fluid flow, or
surrounding a space with a specified environment so
that people will be comfortable
2. Will have satisfactory life and maintenance costs
3. Abides by all constraints, such as size, weight,
temperatures, pressure, material properties, noise,
pollution, etc.

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 The two major steps in achieving a workable
system are
1. to select the concept to be used and

2. to fix whatever parameters are necessary to

select the components of the system.
These parameters must be chosen so that
the design requirements and constraints are
satisfied.

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Creative or not ??!
Can engineering design be a creative
activity ?

It may not be practiced that way (creatively) due to

time, laziness, discouragement of the supervisor or the
whole surrounding environment

Creativity typically happens in selecting the concept,

which is the very early in the engineering process.

Engineers need to discipline themselves to look at

several alternative concepts, not the tried ones only
 Example: Suppose that the pump and piping are to be
selected to convey 3 kg/s from one location to another
250 m away from the original position and 8 m higher

250 m

8m

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Workable system
• The elevation of 8 m imposes a pressure difference of (8
m)(1000 kg/m3)(9.807 m/s2) = 78.5 kPa

• Arbitrarily choose an additional 100 kPa to compensate for

friction in the 250 m of pipe.

•Select a pump which delivers 3 kg/s against a pressure

difference of 178.5 kPa.

• Finally, select a pipe size from a handbook such that the

pressure drop in 250 m of length is 100 kPa or less.

• A pipe size of 50 mm (2 in) satisfies the requirement.

 Optimum Design Procedure
• Set a criterion “minimum life time cost”
• Three major contributors to life time cost
• First cost of pump
• First cost of pipe and
• Running cost of pumping (pumping cost)
• All three costs depend on the outlet pressure
of the pump.
• Establish cost pressure relation and draw as
in the figure below
• Choose the pump pressure which gives minimum
total cost.

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 Location S in Fig. 2-3 is an
adequate source of water, and
location A, B, and C are points at
which water must be provided at
the following rates of
flow:

Points S , A, B, and C are all at the

same elevation. The demands for
water at A and C occur
intermittently and only during the
working day, and they may
coincide. The demand for water at
B occurs only during nonworking
hours and is also intermittent.
Ground-level access exists in a 3-
m border surrounding the building.
Access is not permitted over,
through, or under the building.

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 1. Describe all the concepts of workable methods you can devise
to fulfill the assignment.
2. The influence of such factors as the expected life of the system
has resulted in the decision to use a system in which a pump
delivers water into an elevated storage tank, which supplies the
piping system. A water level switch starts and stops the pump.
Design the system; this includes sketching the pipe network
chosen, listing all the pipe sizes, selecting the pump, and
specifying the elevation of the storage tank. Use pressure drop
data from Fig. 2-4 and pump performance from Fig. 2-5.
(Neglect the pressure drop in the pipe fittings and pressure
conversions due to kinetic energy.) Fill out Table 2.2.
3. Review the design and list the decisions that preclude possible
optimization later in the design

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