Final Vol 2 (BOA 96-185)

27 th International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental
and Coastal Engineering (HYDRO 2022 INTERNATIONAL) at Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh,
India during December 22 -24, 2022
Heavy metal contamination in agricultural region of Yamuna-Hindon

inter-basin, India
Divya Thakur1*, Anupma Sharma1, Mayank Raturi1, Dhiraj Kumar1
1*
Research Associate, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667, India;
Email: divyathakur18@gmail.com
2
Scientist, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667, India;
Email: asharma.nih@gmail.com
3
Junior Research Fellow, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667, India;
Email: mraturi031@gmail.com
4
Junior Research Fellow, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667, India;
Email: dhirajsonkar.nihr@gmail.com
Abstract
The present study aims at identifying sources of trace metal contamination in surface and
groundwater bodies in alluvial region of Upper Yamuna Basin. Total 142 water samples were
collected from various districts from handpumps, tubewells and village ponds. The results
show slightly acidic to alkaline (6.8-8.7 in handpumps, 6.6-7.5 in tubewells and 7.05-8.96 in
ponds) nature of water with lower and negative ORP values confined to ponds and handpumps.
In handpumps, the samples have exceeded permissible limits of BIS, 2012 in 60.5% of samples
for Fe, 8.3% of samples for Mn, 2.8% of samples for Al and 14.7% of samples for Pb. while in
tubewells, only Fe and Mn have exceeded the BIS limit in 7.7% and 3.8% of samples. In ponds,
only 01 sample each for Fe and Mn and 44.4% samples for Al have exceeded the BIS limit. In
groundwater samples, the maximum concentration of Fe is 20.87 mg/L while in ponds it is 1.56
mg/L only. Similarly, the maximum value of Mn concentration is 0.69 mg/L in groundwater
and 0.43 mg/L in ponds. The dissolution of Mn and Fe containing minerals is supported by the
presence of lower redox conditions which has resulted in higher concentration of these metals
in handpump water. Higher Pb concentration (upto 0.27 mg/L) is present in 14.7% handpumps
exceeding its permissible limit of 0.01 mg/L. Al is also present in maximum concentrations
(0.61 mg/L in groundwater and 1.02 mg/L in ponds) which is above permissible limit i.e., 0.03
mg/L. The study concludes that at many locations water from shallow aquifers is not suitable
for human consumption without treatment. Further, village ponds that store domestic waste
water may also lead to the degradation of water quality in shallow aquifers.
Keywords: Yamuna basin, heavy metal contamination, water quality, lead, manganese
1. Introduction
Groundwater is the largest source of freshwater for domestic, irrigational and industrial uses.
Increasing dependence due to rising population has stressed the quality on freshwater resources
in many ways via increased salinity, trace metals, fertilizers etc. Among these, trace metal
contamination is increasingly being detected in surface and sub-surface water bodies across the
globe, especially underdeveloped and developing countries lacking in waste management and
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treatment techniques (Wyatt et al., 1998; Ahmad and Goni, 2009; Sany et al., 2012). In North
Mexico, drinking water contains 3.5 times Iron (Fe) than the recommended level and 2 times
higher Arsenic (As) than the permitted level (Wyatt et al., 1998). The Port Klang coastal area
of Malaysia contains significantly higher concentrations of As, Cd, Hg, and Pb in sediments
and water because of high industrial wastewater effluents and port activities (Sany et al., 2012).
The concentration of Cu, Fe, and Cd in irrigation water and Cd content in soil were much above
the recommended level in Dhaka and surrounding regions of Bangladesh (Ahmad and Goni,
2009). The presence of trace metals in water bodies not only water affects the quality but also
has serious impacts on human health through the direct consumption and indirectly ingestion
through foods from the contaminated soil and water (Milovanovic 2007; Sharma et al., 2007).
The introduction of trace metals may occur through mineral weathering, industrial effluents,
and use of chemical in agricultural fields (Karbassi et al. 2007; Nouri et al. 2008). Release of
trace metals to the water bodies during water-rock interaction occur in varying proportions
depending upon the geological setup and soil types. However, an extensive use of chemicals
in the form of fertilizers, fungicides and pesticides in the agricultural fields may also enhance
their concentration in water bodies and may have an adverse effect on the water quality as well
as on human health.
In India, there are certain reports of heavy metal contamination of soil, river water and
groundwater that in some cases is linked with intense use of fertilizers and pesticides, and
improper industrial waste management. The Swarnamukhi river basin has considerable to very
high degree of contamination of Cu, Cr, Pb and Zn in soil and water possibly because of
residential wastes, sewer outfall, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. (Patel et al., 2017). A study from
sub-urban areas of Varanasi indicates the contamination of Cd, Pb and Ni in the soil and
vegetables because of using treated and untreated wastewater for irrigation (Sharma et al.,
2007). The drinking water in the Kamrupa district of Assam has Cd, Mn and Pb contamination
(Chakrabarty and Sharma, 2010). The Kabini river in Karnataka, a tributary of river Cauvery,
carries significant Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn introduced through natural and anthropogenic
sources in form of industrial effluents, agricultural return flows and domestic sewage (Hejabi
et al., 2011).
The Yamuna River basin is located in the extensive Indo-Gangetic alluvial plains. A marked
enrichment of Cd and Ni had been observed in the sediments of the Yamuna River in Haryana-
Delhi NCR mainly through the inputs from industrial sources (Kaushik et al., 2009). Another
study from Delhi NCR indicated high contamination of heavy metals in soil and water due to
anthropogenic inputs from Najafgarh drains and Okhla barrage (Sehgal et al., 2012). The
presence of Mn in suspended and bed sediments of the Yamuna River have been reported by
Chakrapani and Subramanian (1996) and Dalai et al. (2004). Chakrapani and Subramanian
(1996) have reported elevated Mn concentrations mainly in residual forms of authigenic origin,
followed by their organic matter. The present investigations were carried out in the inter-basin
of Yamuna and Hindon rivers in the Upper Yamuna basin covering 04 districts of Uttar
Pradesh, India. The study focuses on the occurrence of trace metals and identification of their
sources in surface and ground water. The study area is agriculture dominated region with
intensive use of fertilizers and other chemicals in the irrigated fields. Thus, the effect of
chemicals on the water bodies is also assessed.
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2. Materials and Methods
A total of 142 water samples in pre-monsoon season of year 2022 were collected from
handpumps (n=107), tubewells (n=26) and village ponds (n=09) covering 04 districts viz.
Saharanpur, Shamli, Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar, located in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India.
Prior to collection of groundwater samples, handpumps and borewells were pumped for ten
minutes to get the representative water sample.
All the chemical analyses were done in accordance with the standard methods specified by the
American Public Health Association (1975, 1995). Measurement of physical parameters i.e.,
pH, temperature, EC, DO and ORP were made onsite using portable measuring kits of Hach,
USA make HQ40d handheld multimeter. Prior to use, the instruments were calibrated with
given buffer solutions of known pH (4.01, 7.0 and 10.0 of Merck®) and EC (1413 µS/cm KCl
in-house solution and 1000 µS/cm NaCl solution of Merck®). The samples were then stored in
60 ml high quality polyethylene Tarson bottles for further analyses of trace metals in the
laboratory. The samples were filtered through 0.45 µm nylon filter paper and were injected
with conc. HNO3 to restrict organic growth. Trace metals (Al, Mn, Fe and Pb) were measured
using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometry (Agilent-5110). Prior to use
for the analysis, the instrument was calibrated with Merck standards. All the results are reported
with an analytical precision of less than 5%.
2.1.Study Area
The present study was undertaken in the inter-basin region bounded by River Yamuna on one
side and River Hindon (a tributary of Yamuna) on the other side. The study area covers 04
districts viz. Saharanpur, Shamli, Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar, in Uttar Pradesh, India.s The
area mainly covers the agricultural land with major sources of irrigation as private
borewells/tubewells with maximum depth of 300 ft bgl. Village ponds (locally termed Johad)
that store waste water from domestic drains apart from rainwater are also used for irrigating
the agricultural fields located nearby. Geologically, the area comprises of alluvium (gravels,
sand, silt and clays) of Quaternary sediments in varying proportions. Major rabi crops
cultivated in the area include wheat and mustard while kharif crops include water-intensive
crops i.e., paddy and sugarcane.
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Figure 1: Index map of study area showing the sampling locations.
3. Results and Discussions
The range of the physical parameters and trace metals in different sampling sources and its
comparison with BIS limits are given in Table 1 and Fig. 2 respectively. Water is slightly acidic
to alkaline in nature with pH varying from 6.8-8.7 in handpumps, 6.6-7.5 in tubewells and 7.05-
8.96 in village ponds. DO ranged from 1.28-8.55 mg/L, 1.19-5.27 mg/L and 0.59 to 8.68 mg/L
in handpumps, tubewells and ponds respectively. Lower DO values indicate the presence of
pollutants and higher organic content in water bodies resulting in deteriorating of its quality for
human consumption. Further, a wide range of Oxidation Reduction Potential (ORP) is observed
i.e., -211.6 mV in ponds to 275.2 mV in tubewells with low and negative ORP present mostly
in handpump and pond water (Table 1). About 35.5% (38 no. of samples) of the handpump
water and 11.1% (01 no. of sample) of ponds have negative ORP indicating presence of
reducing environment. Higher ORP values are present in Baghpat district while in Shamli and
Saharanpur, low and negative ORP values are observed. Stratification of redox zones in the
aquifers due to decomposition of organic matter at varying depths aids the dissolution of Mn
and Fe rich minerals (Christensen, 2000; Appelo, 2005).
Page 4
Table 1: Variation among the trace metal concentration in the study area (Green color and red
color shows values above acceptable and permissible limit respectively).
Handpump (n=107) Tubewell (n=26) Pond (n=09) BIS, 2012 (mg/L)
Parameters Acceptable Permissible
(mg/L) Min Max Average Min Max Average Min Max Average limit limit
Temp. (°C) 22.7 31.1 27.40 24 31 27.83 28.8 35.9 31.1
DO 1.28 8.55 2.44 1.19 5.27 2.79 0.59 8.68 4.84
ORP (mV) -211.6 252.2 42.71 44.2 275.2 182.72 -105.3 123.2 42.39
pH 6.76 8.7 7.30 6.64 7.51 7.10 7.05 8.96 7.60 6.5 8.5
Fe 0.01 20.87 3.06 0.01 3.12 0.29 0.01 1.56 0.48 0.3 No relaxation
Mn 0.0007 0.69 0.14 0.01 0.38 0.11 0.001 0.43 0.18 0.10 0.30
Al 0.015 0.61 0.05 0.02 0.20 0.05 0.0372 1.021 0.31 0.03 0.20
Pb 0.00009 0.27 0.008 0.001 0.003 0.0004 0.00008 0.006 0.001 0.010 No relaxation
3.1. Spatial Variation among Trace Metals
The presence of trace metal concentrations above the WHO guidelines in drinking water has
been reported by many researchers in various regions (Massmann, 2007; Farnsworth, 2011).
Among the trace metals, concentration of Fe, Mn, Pb and Al exceeding acceptable and
permissible limits of BIS (2012) were found at many sampling sites. Spatial variation in the
trace metal concentration is given in Fig. 3 (a-d).
Elevated concentrations of Fe (>0.3 mg/L) and Mn (>0.1 mg/L) are found in most of the
sampling sites (Fig. 3a). The concentration of Mn is above acceptable limit in all the samples
taken from Saharanpur district. However, in Shamli, Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat the
concentration is comparatively low at majority of the locations (Fig. 3b). The desirable and
permissible limit of Fe in drinking water is 0.3 mg/L (BIS 2012). In the present study, 60.5%
of the handpump water samples with maximum concentration of 20.87 mg/L have exceeded
the permissible limit. In addition, yellow color stains and foul smell in water is also observed
which indicate the presence of rusting and bacterial activity. However, in tubewells it has
exceeded only in 7.7% samples respectively with maximum concentration of 3.1 mg/L.
Further, Mn concentration ranged from 0.001 to 0.69 mg/L in handpumps; 0.01 to 0.38 mg/L
in tubewells and 0.001 to 0.43 mg/L in ponds. It has exceeded in 9.3% samples in handpumps,
3.8% in tubewells and 11.1% in ponds. The concentration of Mn is above acceptable limit in
all the samples taken from Saharanpur district. However, in Shamli, Muzaffarnagar and
Baghpat the concentration is comparatively low at majority of the locations (Fig. 3b). The
amount of dissolved Fe and Mn in groundwater is also associated with inflow of oxygen rich
water primarily during monsoon season, however seasonal variation for a given region may
also occur depending on the geological setup and chemicals used in the agricultural fields.
Since highly oxygenated water prevents dissolution of Fe and Mn ions, lower DO and pH
values of water accelerate their dissolution (WHO, 1996). In the study area, the dissolution of
Fe and Mn containing minerals is supported by the presence of lower redox conditions and
rusting of pipes in handpumps due to their less usage in comparison to tubewells.
Page 5
Geogenic sources of Mn generally comprise of minerals such as manganite, pyrolusite,

rhodochrosite, sugilite, purpurite, and rhodonite. Weathering of Mn rich minerals releases Mn
(II) which form Mn (III/IV) oxides on oxidation (Ramachandran et al. 2021). The secondary
oxides thus formed can subsequently dissolve partially or remain insoluble under suboxic to
anoxic conditions and remain visible as black suspended particles in tapped water. The
presence of Mn in suspended and bed sediments of the Yamuna River has been reported by
Chakrapani and Subramanian (1996) and Dalai et al. (2004). Chakrapani and Subramanian
(1996) have also reported that higher Mn concentrations are mainly in residual forms of
authigenic origin, followed by their organic origin. In the present study, high Mn concentration
is mainly associated with the sampling sites having reduced redox potential in shallow
handpumps and only 01 pond. Since the study area lies in an agricultural belt of Yamuna basin
with wheat, paddy and sugarcane as major crops along with mango orchards, the large scale
use of fertilizers and fungicides in the cultivated fields is common. The use of dithiocarbamate
fungicide containing a mixture of Mn and zinc was confirmed by the villagers during sampling.
Therefore, apart from its geogenic origin reported earlier by Chakrapani and Subramanian
(1996) and Dalai et al. (2004), high Mn concentration in water may also have resulted due to
the leaching of fungicides used in agricultural fields in the region.
The long term usage of Pb rich water for drinking purposes causes cardiovascular, blood
pressure, kidney and reproductive problems in human. The acceptable limit of Pb in drinking
water given is 0.01 mg/L with no further relaxation (BIS, 2012). In the present study, its
concentration has exceeded in 16.8% of handpumps with a maximum of 0.27 mg/L in
Muzaffarnagar. It is present in isolated patches all the districts (Fig. 3c). Pb is not present in
the water samples taken from tubewells and ponds. The presence of Pb is mainly associated
with the mineral weathering and leaching of fertilizers rich water from agricultural fields. The
Al concentration ranged from 0.015 to 0.61 mg/L in handpumps; 0.02 to 0.2 mg/L in tubewells
and 0.037 to 1.02 mg/L in ponds (Table 1). Higher concentration i.e. above acceptable limit
(0.03 mg/L) is present in most of the locations constituting 79.4% and 84.6% of handpumps
and tubewells respectively (Fig. 3d). The concentration has exceeded the permissible limit only
in 07 no. of samples (04 handpumps and 03 ponds). The presence of high Al concentration is
mainly attributed to the dissolution of clay minerals.
The results indicate that handpump water with depths upto 160 ft represents the shallow
aquifers and is unsuitable for human consumption without treatment in majority of the
sampling sites. The presence of high Fe, Mn and Al in the pond water ascertain that these
metals are also being added through anthropogenic sources. Since village ponds that are
receiving domestic waste water from villages are also being used for irrigating the agricultural
fields at few locations, these are also leading to the degradation of water quality in shallow
aquifers.
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(a) (b)
(c) (d)
(e) (f)
Figure 2: Scatter plots showing the range of physio-chemical parameters with respect to BIS,
2012 guidelines (Blue dotted line: Acceptable limit and Black solid line: Permissible limit).
Page 7
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 3: Spatial distribution of trace metals in the study area (pink colour shows concentration
above acceptable limit given by BIS (2012)).
Page 8
3.2.Societal Impact
Trace metals in higher concentrations in surface and groundwater can be hazardous to human
population. Mn is a powerful neurotoxin and its high and prolonged consumption can cause
neurological disorders, parkinsonism and compulsive behaviors in human, lung diseases and
low fetal birth weight. (Beuter et al. 1999; WHO, 2003; Zota et al. 2009; Guilarte 2010;
Bouchard et al. 2011). High Mn in water may also develop slimy texture in water pipes as a
result of bacterial growth. The use of dithiocarbamate fungicide which contains 16% of Mn,
may also cause serious health issues. Similarly, Fe and Al can also cause stomach disorders,
nausea and development of Alzheimer disease in human (WHO, 1997). High intake of Pb can
cause cardiovascular and reproductive problems in adults.
Several effective methods for removing Fe and Mn from drinking water can be adopted such
as reverse osmosis and distillation at point of use, aeration followed by filtration, and frequent
chlorination of water tanks. Pb contamination can also be treated through adsorption and
chemical precipitation method. In regions with elevated concentrations of trace metals in
shallow aquifers, drilling wells at deeper depths can also serve as an effective way to access
good quality water.
4. Conclusions
The present study evaluates the quality of groundwater and surface water in 04 districts falling
in inter-basin region of Yamuna and Hindon rivers which is extensively being used for
agricultural practices. Groundwater is utilized by the farmers for irrigating the croplands.
Village ponds that store rainwater and waste water from domestic drains are another source of
irrigation.
The results indicate slightly acidic to alkaline nature of water with pH varying from 6.8-8.7 in
handpumps, 6.6-7.5 in tubewells and 7.05-8.96 in ponds. Lower and negative ORP values are
confined to ponds and shallow aquifers. Fe, Mn and Al have exceeded the acceptable limit in
majority of the locations indicating the deterioration of water quality for human consumption.
The dissolution of Mn and Fe containing minerals is supported by the presence of lower redox
conditions which has resulted in higher concentration of these metals in handpump water.
Decomposition of organic matter at varying depths also results in stratification of redox zones
which aids dissolution of Mn and Fe rich minerals in soil. Pb is carcinogenic in nature and
intake of Pb rich water is hazardous for inhabitants. On the whole, water withdrawn from
shallow aquifers at many locations is not suitable for human consumption without treatment.
Irrigation of agricultural fields using water from village ponds is also degrading the water
quality of study area.
Acknowledgements
Authors thank the Director, National Institute of Hydrology for providing the necessary
infrastructure and laboratory facilities to carry out the present work. This work is funded by
Page 9
Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India under the National Hydrology Project aided by the
World Bank.
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Critical Appraisal of Different Approaches to Model Hydrodynamic

Characteristics of River Confluence
Sandilya, S.S.1 and Das, B.S2
1
Ph.D. Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology, Patna-800005 INDIA; Email:
sss.nitp@gmail.com
2
Assistant professor, National Institute of Technology, Patna-800005 INDIA; Email:
bsd.ce@nitp.ac.in.
Abstract
River confluence is the critical node within the fluvial network where two or more channel
having independent flow and sediment regime merges in a single channel downstream.
Confluence acts as an important geomorphological node that controls the downstream sediment
and flow routing. The sediment motion associated with flow at the confluence causes distorted
bed morphology and a more complex pattern of flow at confluences. The complex
characteristics of flow as a backwater and flow separation at river confluence indicate the
potential of submerged flooding disaster within the confluence zone. Understanding of
confluence flow characteristics downstream of confluence found from the stage-discharge
study is essential for flood control, evaluation of flood risk, and solving river engineering
problems. Different approaches to modeling hydrodynamic characteristics of river confluence
are laboratory experiments, field experiments, empirical equations, theoretical approaches, and
numerical modeling. Software used to model river confluence are ANSYS-CFX, ANSYS
FLUENT, 3D OpenFOAM (Open-source Field Operation And Manipulation), SSIIM 1 and
SSIIM 2 (Sediment Simulation In Intakes with Multiblock option), etc. The main factor that
influences the flow characteristics are confluence angle, ratios of flow parameters (e.g.,
velocity, discharge, and momentum) of merging channels, and bed discordance. From a
practical point of view, investigating the influence of channel complexities on flow structures
and pattern is important for better designing and management of hydraulic structures and
associated river engineering works. From the scientific point of view, understanding the
hydrodynamics mechanism of flow mixing at complex river confluences helps to facilitate and
develop theories and models in open channel hydraulics as modeling of the turbulent and
mixing layer. The behavior of hydrodynamics and response of flows at the confluence (such as
backwater, circulation, and separation), turbulence and coherent structure (as resistance and
shear stress), and system responses (like flooding and discharge influences) are explained by
various experimental and numerical studies. Therefore, investigating flow characteristics at
river confluence may bring better theories and practices in river hydraulics. In this paper, a
critical review of the different models of hydrodynamic characteristics derived from principles
of mass conservation, momentum conservation, and energy conservation has been carried out.
Keywords: River Confluence, Flow Separation, Stage Discharge Relationship, Confluence

Hydrodynamic Zone
Page 1
1. Introduction
A river confluence is a place where two rivers with the same or different characteristics merge.
The merging of rivers takes many forms. In some, a small river (the lateral flow) enters a large
one (the main flow) to form an open channel flow in others, two non-parallel rivers flowing in
approximately no parallel direction meet to form a single stream. The merging of rivers forms
a confluence zone characterized by unique flow and morphological conditions. In natural
circumstances, such zones are continuously developing as different water and sediment regime
of the merging rivers. The understanding of the local hydro morphological processes is
essential as these zones might be sensitive points of the river system causing e.g., navigational
problems, and flood disasters. The following characteristics were found to be most relevant at
the river confluence the bed level difference between the merging rivers, confluence Junction
angles, and momentum ratio between the merging rivers.
Confluences are associated with a significant change in flow dynamics, sediment transport, and
bed morphology. Studies revealed that the hydrodynamic processes are the most dominant
phenomena occurring in a wide range of confluence configurations. Best (1987) proposed a
conceptual model that distinguishes six hydrodynamic zones in a confluence channel: flow
deflection, flow stagnation, flow separation, maximum velocity, shear layer, and flow recovery
as shown in figure 1.
Location dependent on
discharge rate
Shear Plane
Contracted
flow
Possible location of Zone of

stagnation point Separation
depending on
discharge ratio
Figure 1 Characteristics of flow at channel confluence

The bed morphology at a river channel confluence can be broadly divided into three elements:
1) distinct, and commonly steep, avalanche faces that form at the mouth of each of the confluent
channels, 2) a region of pronounced scour within the center of the junction and, 3) bars of
sediment which are formed within the post confluence channel Best (1987).
From the scientific point of view, it is important to understand the hydrodynamic mechanism
of mixing flow at complex river confluences, in order to facilitate the development of theory
and models in open channel hydraulics, such as modeling of turbulence and mixing layers.
Page 2
Many previous experimental and numerical studies have focused on the behavior of
hydrodynamics and response of open channel flows at the confluence (backwater, separation,
and circulation), turbulence and coherent structure (resistance and shear stress), and system
responses (flooding and discharge influences).
With regards to the flow structure and patterns at the channel confluence, Taylor (1944) first
discussed the influence of depth changes on the open channel flows in a rectangular open
channel junction. Webber and Greated (1966) proposed a theoretical flow pattern based on
experimental observations. Through various experimental and numerical studies, the impacts
of flow confluences at different channel junctions on the flow pattern and structures were
widely investigated in the last decades by various researchers (e.g., Best and Reid 1984,
Zhang et al. 2015, Creelle et al. 2017). The result of these studies has shown that the flow
junction with different properties (e.g., Size ratio, angle, and water depth changes due to
discordant bed) greatly influences the hydrodynamic responses at the confluence zone. This
indicates that flow junction characteristics have to be included in the hydraulic modeling
processes to obtain a better physical interpretation and accurate numerical prediction.
Many researchers after understanding the importance and influence of processes of flow
structure and pattern made efforts to quantify and model the turbulence at the confluence.
Rhoads and Sukhodolov (2001a and 2001b), were analyzed and explained the physical
mechanism and process of turbulence formation at confluence junction based on their obtained
experimental data and numerical results. Furthermore, the studies of Rhoads and Sukhodolov
(2001b and 2004) also demonstrated the characteristics of turbulence and coherent turbulent
structures within the shear layer through a field system study of three stream confluences and
Yang et al. (2014) analyzed the influence of turbulence characteristics at confluence junctions
on the open-channel confluence flows based on numerical and experimental studies. However,
the previous studies turbulence behavior and characteristics at confluence could not be fully
understood and generally represented by the current turbulence model and theory, which need
to be further investigated.
Regarding the system responses at the confluence, several studies have been made by various
researchers. Some study shows that flooding in the upstream stream of the confluence junction
is more predominant than in the stream downstream of the junction. These results and findings
were validated by the numerical simulation of Roca et al. (2009). Furthermore, Kharua et al.
(2012) proposed an improved stage-discharge method by considering the momentum transfer
in a compound channel.
The above discussion draws an inference that understanding and investigating the
characteristics of flow at river confluence may have great practical significance, such as flood
control, navigation, and management in river engineering.
Page 3
2. Different approaches for modelling river confluence
2.1 Experimental Modelling
There are basically two types of confluence planform junctions considered by researchers Best
1988, Weerakon et al. (1991), Best and Roy (1991), Biron (1996), Weber (2001), etc for
experimental studies of confluence flow are Asymmetric and symmetric confluence.
Table 1 Summary of geometric shape and dimensions of different confluence channels used in
previous experimental studies
Main Channel Branch Channel Post Confluence

Author Shape Dimensions (m) Dimensions (m) Dimensions (m)
L B H L B H L B H
15°-90°
Best and Reid angle
- 0.15 - - 0.15 - - 0.15 -
(1984) Confluence
60° angle
Weerakon et
Confluence - 0.5 - - 0.3 - - 0.5 0.0
al. (1991)
Parallel
Best and Roy channels 0.13 0.0
3 0.135 0.1 3 - - -
(1991) of unequal 5 5
depth
30° angle
Biron (1996) - 0.12 - - 0.08 - - 0.15 -
Confluence
90° angle
Shumate 0.91 16. 0.91
Confluence 5.48 0.914 - 3.65 - -
(1998) 4 45 4
Weber et al. 90° angle 7.4
16.46 0.91 - 5.59 0.91 - - -
(2001) Confluence 2
Yang et al. 90° angle 0.91
2 0.914 - - - 7 - -
(2011) Confluence 4
Yu et al. 90°, 30°
(2022) angle 0.7 0.4 0.4 3 0.3 0.4 3 0.3 -
Confluence
Baranya et al. 90° angle
- 500 6 - 50 2 - - -
(2017) * Confluence
L-Length, B-Width, H-Depth of the channel; * Field Experiment
Asymmetric confluences are those in which the post-confluence channel is a linear extension
of the main channel while in the case of symmetric confluence the confluence junction is more
Page 4
or less in a ‘Y’ shape. These two fundamental distinctions help in the study of bed morphology
at river confluence by investigating the effect of different confluence angles and discharge
ratios. Best and Reid (1984) investigated the relationship between separation zone length and
discharge ratio at different confluence angles varying from 15°-90°. Best and Roy (1991) use
Parallel channels of unequal depth. Weerakon et al. (1991), Biron (1996), and Weber (2001)
use confluence angles of 30°, 60°and 90° respectively to investigate the complex confluence
flow pattern although in the case of Weber (2001) the branch channel walls can be rearranged
to form junction angles from 45° to 90° for observation. Two different confluence angles 30°
and 90° have been taken by Yu et al. (2022) in the study. Different geometric parameters such
as length, width, and depth of channel for the main channel, branch channel, and post-
confluence channel are summarised in Table 1. The maximum width of the main channel and
branch channel has been taken as 0.91m by Weber (2001) while the Minimum width of the
main channel and branch channel has been taken by Biron (1996) as 0.12 m and 0.08m
respectively, which is evident from a perusal of Table 1.
Baranya et al. (2017) conducted an extensive field experiment in China on the mainstream of
the river Danube (having average width, depth, and discharge were 500 m, 6 m, and 2000
m3/sec respectively) and the tributary stream of the river Hron almost perpendicular
confluences (having average width, depth, velocity and discharge were 50 m, 2 m, and 60
m3/sec respectively).
2.2 Numerical Modelling
Numerical models used for the study of river confluence by various researchers have been
summarised in Table 2. To investigate the performance of simulated numerical models has
been validated with experimental results. Experimental data used for the validation of the
numerical model has been obvious from the examination of Table 2. Liu et al., (2009), Zeng
and Li, (2010), and Yang et al., (2011) validated their simulated numerical model with their
own experimentally observed data while others rely on the previously conducted experimental
studies of Shumate (1998), Shumate and Weber (1998), Weber et al. (2001). It is clearly evident
from a perusal of Table 2 that the experimental study of Weber et al. (2001) is a benchmark for
the validation of numerical models Shaheed et al. (2021).
The different turbulence models used for the simulation of the numerical modeling of the
confluence of the flow are summarized in Table 2.
Table 2 Summary of the numerical model selected for river confluence modeling
Validated with
Author experimental Model used Key Findings
study
strength of secondary flow was
Huang et al.,
Shumate (1998) k-Omega underestimated
(2002)
Page 5
An upstream end of the junction

The turbulence
holds well with the
model was not
Sivakumar et Weber et al. experimental result while the
specified, The CFD
al., (2004) (2001) discrepancy increases as moves
software PHONIX
downstream
was used.
The numerical model agreed
Zhang et al., Weber et al. well with the experimental
3D k-Omega
(2009) (2001) result.
Analytical solutions hold well

Liu et al., Liu et al.,
LES model with the experimental result
(2009) (2009)
There are approximately three
numbers of counter-rotating
Shakibaeinia et Shumate and RNG form of k- helical cells are appeared just
al., (2010) Weber (1998) Epsilon after the junction due to
secondary flow.
The established new hybrid

Zeng and Li
RANS-LES turbulence model
(2010) set up an
Established hybrid performs better than the RANS
Zeng and Li, experimental
RANS-LES model in addition it saves
(2010) arrangement
turbulence model computational effort more than
based on Weber
LES turbulence model.
et al. (2001)
The secondary flow predicted
by turbulence models at the
Standard k-Epsilon,
Yang et al., Yang et al., section just after confluence
RNG k-Epsilon, and
(2011) (2011) was lesser than the experimental
RSM
result.
Mignot et al., Mignot et al., RNG form of k- Simulation data holds well with
(2012) (2012) Epsilon the measured data.
Standard k- Epsilon,
k-ω is the most preferred
Yang et al., Weber et al. realizable k-
turbulence model for simulating
(2013) (2001) Epsilon, and k-
confluence flow.
Omega
Some geometrical adjustments

Mohammadiun Weber et al.
Reynolds Stress significantly improve the Flow
et al., (2015) (2001)
pattern of the model.
Schindfessel et - LES model Due to the flow of the tributary,
Page 6
al., (2015) new features of the flow

patterns were induced.
For non-rectangular shapes, a

significant difference in the
Schindfessel et
- LES model separation zone dimensions was
al., (2017)
observed.
Standard k– Epsilon The realizable k–ε model is

Shaheed et al.,
Shumate (1998) and the realizable k– better than the Standard k–
(2019)
Epsilon Epsilon
The contaminants mixing
Tang et al., basically happens in the mixing
- (RANS and RSM)
(2018) layer at the interface of two
confluent flows
A modified 1D
nonlinear dynamic
model and fully 3D The principle of 1D and 3D
Luo et al., Weber et al. non-hydrostatic, modeling may be applied to
(2018) (2001) Reynolds-averaged other flow diversion problems
Navier–Stokes like a river meander
equations (RANS)
model
Oversimplification of free
surface numerical processing
Ramos et al., Weber et al.
LES model leads to lower accuracy of
(2019) (2001)
secondary flow and turbulent
kinetic energy predictions.
RANS -Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations, RSM- Reynolds Stress turbulence model, RNG-Realized, LES-Large
Eddy Simulation.
2.3 ANN Modelling
Sun et al. (2014) investigated the capability of artificial neural network (ANN) models for
modeling confluence channel flow velocity distribution. ANN model was constructed by using
data derived from CFD models. This study uses training and validation data selected from the
orthogonal sampling method. The performance of ANN models to predict confluence flow
velocities of cases having varied discharges is satisfactory with NS indices higher than 0.8. It
is also concluded that in the case of smaller zones modeling ANN model has better performance
as the local model usually performs better than the global model.
Zaji and Bonakdari (2015) use the artificial neural network (ANN) and three-dimensional
Page 7
modeling to investigate the flow velocity in a 90◦ confluence channel. A modified genetic
algorithm was introduced first and then the ANN model was optimized for predicting the flow
velocity in a confluence channel. ANSYS-CFX software was used for the 3-D simulation of
free surface flow. It was evident from the result that the performance of ANN was better than
CFX when compared with the laboratory data in prediction confluence flow velocity.
3. Methodology
3.1 Experimental Modelling
A surface dye tracer has been used to establish the shape and dimensions of the separation
zone, which is captured by vertical photography. Video recordings have also been used as a
refinement, for measurements of time-averaged quantities. To enhance flow visualization
neutrally buoyant particles were used in separate runs by Best and Reid (1984). Best (1988),
Best and Reid (1984), and Weerakoon et al. (1991) introduce dye tracers for flow visualization
and experimental observation has been captured by still photographs and recording videos.
Table 3 Summary of previous experimental work on River confluence
Author Geometry Laboratory Parameters Significant Findings

Set up studied
Best (1988) 90° angled Self-formed Different The discharge ratio decreases, scour
confluence sand bed discharge ratios hole depth increases, and junction
and junction angle increases, depth of scour hole
angles increases.
Best and 90° angled Fixed bed, Different Discharge ratio and junction angle
Reid (1984) confluence rectangular discharge ratios increase, and the size of the lateral
cross- and junction recirculation zone increases.
section angles
Weerakoon 60 ° angle Fixed bed, Training wall The experimental comparison holds
et al. (199 confluence rectangular removed well with numerical simulation.
1) cross-
section
Best and Parallel Fixed bed, Depth ratio of To enhance mixing and entrainment
Roy (1991) channels of rectangular 0·5, velocity ratio of cross-stream fluid the shear layer
unequal cross- of 1.0, and the distortion towards the shallower
depth section effect of bed channel.
discordance
Page 8
Biron et al. 30 ° angle Fixed bed, Depth ratio of Secondary circulation was
(1996) confluence rectangular 0·81, velocity intensified due to bed discordance.
cross- ratio of 1.6, and
section the effect of bed
discordance
The fixed A different flow Information provided with 3-D

90° angle bed has a ratio q* is water surface mapping of velocity
confluence rectangular employed which proved to be the benchmark for the
with cross- is the ratio of the validation of the 3D CFD models.
Weber et al. adjustable section main channel
(2001) branch flow (Qm) to the
channel to total flow (Qt).
form
junction
angle from
45° to 90°
Impact of
Yang et al. rectangular
90° angle roughness height Higher roughness height results in
(2011) cross-
Confluence on separation lower width of the separation zone.
section
zone.
Yu et al.
The
(2022) Different
deformed The formation of the mid‐channel
discharge ratio of
90°, 30° bed has a scour hole was mainly due to the
3:2 and 2:3 for
Confluence rectangular secondary flow and high turbulence
both confluence
cross- above it.
angles of 90°, 30°
section
Depth, velocity, and discharge ratio are values in the branch channel divided by the value in the main channel unless it is
specified in Table 3.
Yu et al. (2020) employed two pumps having the same fixed flow rate (30 L/s) for performing
experiments on different discharge ratios of 3:2 and 2:3 for both confluence angles of 90°, and
30°. A deformed bed rectangular channel has been set up for the experiment by Yu et al. (2020)
while others used a fixed bed rectangular channel for the experiment, which is evident from
Table 2. Best and Reid (1984), and Best (1988) performed experiments with different
confluence angles and different discharge ratios to investigate separation zone and scour holes.
Different flow ratio q* is employed which is defined as the ratio of the main channel flow (Qm)
to the total flow (Qt) by Weber (2001). Yang et al. (2011) considered the discharge of the main
and branch channel as 0.127 m3/sec and 0.043 m3/sec respectively and the discharge ratio as
0.25 to study the impact of roughness height on the width of the separation zone.
Page 9
Generally, the results obtained from these experiments are limited by the number of confluence
geometries that can be examined in a reasonable amount of time. This limitation may be
overcome by numerical models, in which confluence geometry is more readily varied, and data
is acquired more rapidly. Bradbrook et al. (1998)
The velocity of water was determined with a miniature current meter, electromagnetic
velocimeter, acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), a Nortek Vectrino Acoustic Doppler
Velocimeter (ADV) by Best and Reid (1984), Weerakoonet al. (1991, Weber et al. (2001), Yu
et al. (2022) respectively at suitable points along the different cross-sections selected for the
study. No of the location selected for velocity measurement at the different cross-sections for
the confluence study are of higher order for the post-confluence channel comprising main and
branch channels as shown in figure 2.
Main Post-confluence
Channel Channel
Branch
Channel
Figure 2 Location of cross sections selected in previous studies for confluence flow
Baranya et al. (2017) conducted a field experiment in China to investigate of hydrodynamic

structure formation at a river confluence. An ultrasonic bathymetry survey has been done along
a suitably selected cross-section with an average spacing of 40 m using a single beam
echosounder for the selected study area. Velocity measurements have been using 1200 kHz
RDI ADCP in both fixed and moving modes. Bed material samples were taken using a drag-
bucket sampler and suspended sediment concentration was surveyed using a Lisst-SL
instrument which is based on the principle of laser diffraction to measure the time series of the
particles size distribution (PSD) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) which offers a
detailed snapshot of the sediment concentration pattern.
3.2 Numerical Modelling
Mathematical equations derived for the numerical models are based on the principle of mass
conservation, momentum conservation, and energy conservation. For 3D steady flow, an
Page 10
elliptical form of the Reynolds average Navier-Stokes equation has been considered. The
turbulent Reynolds stress term in Reynolds average Navier-Stokes equation cannot be
calculated directly and it requires additional equations different turbulence model has been
used as additional equations for the solution (Bradbrook et al., 1998).
3.2.1 Boundary conditions
For numerical modeling sets of boundary conditions considered should include the inlet, outlet,
free surface, and walls as shown in figure 3.
Figure 3 General boundary condition considered for the river confluence

(Huang et al., 2002) considered zero normal gradients at the free surface. At the inlet’s
boundaries of the main and branch channels velocity of flow and turbulence quantities were
specified, and the standard wall function was assigned to walls. At the outlet boundary, the free
surface was specified and fixed pressure was considered. Sivakumar et al. (2004) applied a No-
slip boundary condition at walls. At two inlets and an outlet of the confluence channel zero-
gauge, pressure has been assigned as boundary conditions for the planes above the water
surface. Shaheed et al. (2018) The boundary conditions included the flow discharge with initial
velocities at the inlets of the two channels, a zero gradient at the outlet of the channel, the
pressure, and turbulent viscosity defined as zero gradients for the inlet and outlet, the standard
wall function for the walls, and a symmetry plane for the channel surface.
Yang et al. (2011), Yang et al. (2013), Mohammadiun et al. (2015), and Tang et al. (2018)
simulated their numerical model using CFD software The FLUENT software (ANSYS, Inc.,
Canonsburg, PA, USA). OpenFOAM an open-source CFD-based software was used by
Shaheed et al. (2018) for the simulation of the confluence of flow.
3.2.2 Model Validation
Model validation involved the comparison of modeled results with experimentally observed
data in order to establish assurance in the prediction capability of a numerical model.
Liu et al., (2009), Zeng and Li, (2010), and Yang et al., (2011) validated their simulated
numerical model with their own experimentally observed data. Ramos et al., (2019), Luo et al.,
(2018), Mohammadiun et al., (2015), Yang et al., (2013), Sivakumar et al., (2004), Zhang et
al., (2009) validate their simulated numerical models using experimental observation of the
Weber et al. (2001). Huang et al., (2002) and shaheed et al. (2018) validated with experimental
Page 11
results of the Shumate (1998) and Shumate and Weber (1998) experimental observation was
used by Shakibaeinia et al., (2010).
Sun et al. (2014) investigated the capability of artificial neural network (ANN) models for
modeling confluence channel flow velocity distribution. ANN model was constructed by using
data derived from CFD models. This study uses training and validation data selected from the
orthogonal sampling method. The performance of ANN models to predict confluence flow
velocities of cases having varied discharges is satisfactory with NS indices higher than 0.8. It
is also concluded that in the case of smaller zones modeling ANN model has better performance
as the local model usually performs better than the global model.
Zaji and Bonakdari (2015) use the artificial neural network (ANN) and three-dimensional
modeling to investigate the flow velocity in a 90◦ confluence channel. A modified genetic
algorithm was introduced first and then the ANN model was optimized for predicting the flow
velocity in a confluence channel. ANSYS-CFX software was used for the 3-D simulation of
free surface flow. It was evident from the result that the performance of ANN was better than
CFX when compared with the laboratory data in prediction confluence flow velocity.
4. Summary
As the flow structure formed around a river confluence are quite complex and complicated.
The field experiment to study the complex flow behavior proves to be cumbersome and
uneconomical compared to the other methods. The physical model prepared in the laboratory
for the study of the flow structures around the river confluence by various researchers and
presented results gives an insight into the velocity field, scour hole, separation zone, mixing
layer, and a shear layer formed near the river confluence. 3-D numerical modeling is
considered an efficient tool for predicting hydrodynamics at the river confluence. Several
comparisons study has been conducted by various researchers to determine the performance of
the 3D numerical model for predicting flow structures formed around the confluence.
Simulated results of most numerical studies hold well with the laboratory or field data.
The planform of river confluence acts as an important role in the formation of the strength of
secondary flow and the turbulence at the confluence increases as the confluence angle
increases. It has been also suggested by some of the researchers that the middle bar of the
channel is advanced in symmetric river confluence whereas in asymmetric river confluence,
sediment deposition occurs at the downstream junction of the branch channel and sediment
erosion occurs at the bank opposite to the branch channel. Advanced turbulence models should
be used for applications that require a very high level of accuracy such as LES and DNS, but
for most applications RANS models are found to be adequately satisfactory. Generally. k–
ε turbulence model is the most widely used turbulence model. However, there is still a
requirement for improvement of the turbulence models and numerical schemes to improve their
performance without substantially increasing the computational costs.
Page 12
5. Conclusions
In this review article, three different modeling techniques have been discussed such as
experimental modeling, numerical modeling, and ANN modeling. Each modeling method has
its own merits and demerits. Three-dimensional CFD models were found to be both economical
and efficient in predicting velocity flow field and change in flow structure with change in flow
parameters. The variation in flow direction and instabilities at the mixing are the main reason
for the sediment transport, sediment reworking, sediment deposition, and sediment erosion at
the river confluence. In recent days soft computing techniques such as ANN, ANFIS, SVM,
etc. may be utilized to model the confluence of rivers.
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Zaji, A. H., & Bonakdari, H. (2015). Efficient methods for prediction of velocity fields in open
channel junctions based on the artifical neural network. Engineering Applications of
Computational Fluid Mechanics, 9(1), 220-232.
Zeng, C., & Li, C. W. (2010). A hybrid RANS-LES model for combining flows in open-channel
T-junctions. Journal of Hydrodynamics, 22(1), 154-159.
Zhang, T., Xu, W. L., & Chao, W. U. (2009). Effect of discharge ratio on flow characteristics in
90 equal-width open-channel junction. Journal of Hydrodynamics, Ser. B, 21(4), 541-549.
Page 15
27 thInternational Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental and Coastal
Engineering (HYDRO 2022 INTERNATIONAL) at Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh, India during
December 22 -24, 2022
Hydrodynamic Performance of Raceway Pond using k- Turbulence Model
Rozy Kumari1, Sweety Rajput2 and Dr. B.S Das3

1
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology
Patna, Patna, India– 800005; Email: rozynitp@gmail.com
2
Phd Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering,National Institute of Technology
Patna, Patna, India – 800005;Email: sweetyrajput113@gmail.com
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology
Patna, Patna, India – 800005; E-mail: bsd.ce@nitp.ac.in
Abstract
Raceway pond is a manmade recirculation channel which is very important for the growth of
algae. Algae can be used in production of bio-fuels and also in food industry and
pharmaceutical industry. The geometry of the raceway pond is generally oval in shape, which
consist of central middle wall and semicircular deflector. The material used for construct a
raceway pond are concrete/aluminum/ glass/plastic etc. Paddle wheel is used for the
circulation of water in the channel. In light of huge requirement of algae, production of large
number of algae should be needed. Thus, raceway pond modelling is necessary for the better
performance of pond. In this study raceway pond modelling is done using ANSYS-fluent
software in which k-ɛ turbulence model has been used for the simulation. Different aspect
ratios (length to width) are taken into consideration at constant flow velocity to check the
performance of raceway pond. Four aspect ratios have been chosen for the present model i.e.,
5, 10, 15 and 20. Paddle wheel is placed at different location of the channel and variation of
velocity contour is observed. Wall boundary condition is used at the bottom and inner and
outer wall whereas symmetry boundary condition is used at the top surface. At the location of
paddle wheel velocity inlet is taken. The main problem is the development of dead zone due
to occurrence of low flow velocity. To overcome this problem deflector is used and
modification in the shape of middle wall is created. The performance of the model is
analyzed based on the velocity distributions, shear distribution, variation of eddy viscosity,
and pressure distribution over the raceway pond.
Keywords: Raceway Pond, ANSYS (fluent), k-ɛ turbulence model, Paddle wheel, Deflector
1. Introduction
Due to depleting sources of crude oil and natural gas, the contribution of renewable energy in
global energy supply has been increasing. To reduce the demand of fossil fuel production of
algae is required because the biofuels from algae have high lipid content (15-300 times higher
than traditional crops) as compared with other terrestrial crops (Chishti,2007). Algae
productions do not have require standard environmental conditions and can be produced in
aqueous suspensions where sufficient light and carbon dioxide is available. (Sawant et
al.,2017). Growth of algal biomass is high in closed photo bioreactors, but the cost of
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December 22 -24, 2022
building and operating such systems is too high. On the other hand, the open-air systems,
commonly known as raceway ponds (RWP), suffer from lesser control over growth
conditions, but they are far more cost effective for large scale production (Chisti.,2007).
Turbulent mixing can be enhanced by increasing the paddle wheel rotational speed. However,
this requires more electrical power and a mixing velocity must be greater than 0.1 m/s to
prevent settling of algae cells in raceway ponds (Weissman et al., 1988). However, higher
mixing rates damage algae cell membrane, similar to the case of multicellular cylindrical
Spirulina, which has a weaker membrane than the unicellular spherical Chlorella. Therefore,
an optimized paddle wheel rotational speed at which algae cells experience sufficient sunlight
without damaging their mechanical structure is required (Barbosa et al., 2003). In addition to
paddle wheel rotational speeds, the degree of mixing also depends on the geometrical features
of algal ponds like corner bends, flow deflectors, and baffles (Ali et al.,2014). Design
innovation and refinement will need to draw heavily on the experience which has been gained
through the operation of systems employing a wide variety of designs. System has been
designed for the autotrophic production of microalgae (Terry and Raymond 1985). Mixing
and circulation are produced by a paddlewheel. The paddlewheel operates all the time to
prevent sedimentation. Flow is guided around bends by baffles placed in the flow channel
(Chisti 2007). The corners of the raceway pond should be angled and flow deflectors
prevented excessive eddying around the bends (Weissman et al.1987). Material used for the
construction of raceway pond are Concrete/SRF PVCcoated Fibric/ Glassetc. Open raceway
pond is cost effective for large scale production. Raceway ponds for mass culture of
microalgae have been used since the 1950s (Chisti 2007). Open raceway pond relatively
cheap ease to clean good for mass cultivation. Experimental Studies of Vertical Mixing in an
Open Channel Raceway for Algae Biofuel Production has been done by (Voleti 2012).
Experimental Studies of Vertical Mixing in an Open Channel Raceway for Algae Biofuel
Production has been done by (Voleti2012). The major problem in the raceway pond is the
development of dead zone due to low flow velocity. To overcome this problem different
studied have been proposed that aspect ratio (ratio of length and width) should be more than
10 (Hadiyanto et al., 2012). By installing three flow deflectors at each end (Sompech et al.,
2014). Raceway pond with flow deflectors and using baffles decreased the dead zone (Zang
et al., 2015). More the aspect ratio lesser will be the dead zone (Lima et al., 2021). Second
main issue in the raceway pond is the high-power consumption. To overcome this issue
different researcher have found in their studies that power can be consumed by providing
sloping baffles and flow deflector (Huang et al., 2015). By providing side entry axial flow
impeller and paddle wheel (Sawant et al., 2017).
This paper focus on the study of hydrodynamics performance of raceway pond with respect
to modification in geometry. For analysis of CFD model, ANSYS fluent software is used in
which k-ɛis used for simulation. Simulation using k-ɛ turbulence model have been done by
(Hadiyanto et al., 2012; Liffmen et al., 2012; Sawant et al., 2017.
2.1 Modelling using ANSYS Fluent
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December 22 -24, 2022
Three-dimensional flow simulations were carried out with the use of the commercial software
ANSYS Fluent 19.1. The simulation condition is k-ɛ.
1. Boundary condition used in the present study is

2. At the location of paddle wheel pressure inlet and pressure outlet is taken. At pressure
inlet turbulent kinetic energy is taken as 0.00064 (m2/s2) and specified dissipation rate
is 1.533 (m2/s3) and velocity magnitude is 0.3 m/s and free surface level is 0.40 m.
3. The flow is turbulent, and the turbulence is expressed by the k-ɛ, k-ω and LES model.
4. At the raceway bottom wall boundary conditions are adopted where roughness height
is 0.000266.
5. At Inner and outer walls, wall boundary condition is adopted where roughness height
is 0.015 and roughness constant is 0.50
6. At the topmost surface of raceway wall boundary condition with specified shear is
adopted.
7. The flow is steady
8. The flow is incompressible
A raceway pond is made of a closed loop recirculation channel that is typically about 0.40 m
deepFigure 1.
Figure 1 Schematic diagram of Raceway Pond using ANSYS Fluent
Figure 2 Flow chart of Ansys fluent
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
The fluid motion under the above-mentioned conditions can be expressed by the Reynolds-
averaged Navier-Stokes equation and the continuity equation in the form
1
(→.→) → = − → 𝑝 + →.→ + → (1)
𝑢 ∇ 𝑢 𝜌 ∇ ∇ 𝑇 𝑠
where u is the velocity (m/s) vector, ρ is the fluid density (kg/m3), p is the pressure (Pa), T is
the Reynolds stress (m2/s2) tensor and s is the source term. The elements of the stress tensor,
Tij, are expressed by the eddy viscosity μ (N s/ m2) in the form
𝜇 𝜕𝑢𝑖 𝜕𝑢𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = ( + ) (2)
𝜌 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑖
Where uij denotes components of the velocity vector u and xij denotes directions of the
coordinate axes. The k-ɛ model includes transport equations for the turbulent kinetic energy k
(m2/s2) and the turbulent energy dissipation rate ɛ (m2/s3). The eddy viscosity is then defined
by the relation
𝑘2
µ = 𝜌𝑐𝜇 (3)
𝜀
𝜕𝜀 𝜕𝜀 𝜕 𝜇𝑡 𝜕𝜀 𝜀 𝜕𝑢𝑖 𝜀2
𝑝 + 𝑝𝑢𝑗 = [(𝜇 + ) ] + 𝐶𝜀1 𝜏𝑖𝑗 − 𝐶𝜀2 𝑝 (4)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜎𝜀 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝑘 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝑘
where 𝑐𝜇 = 0.09 is a coefficient. The transport equations of turbulent kinetic energy k and
dissipation rate ɛ are presented Eq. (3) and (4).
𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝑢𝑖 𝜕 𝜇𝑡 𝜕𝑘
𝑝 + 𝑝𝑢𝑗 = 𝜏𝑖 𝑗 + [(𝜇 + ) ] − 𝑝𝜀 (5)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑥𝑗
𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝑢𝑖 𝜕 𝜇𝑡 𝜕𝑘
𝑝 + 𝑝𝑢𝑗 = 𝜏𝑖 𝑗 + [(𝜇 + ) ] − 𝑝𝜀 (6)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑥𝑗
where 𝜕𝑘 = 1.0 and 𝜕∈ = 1.3 are the turbulent Schmidt numbers for k and ɛ respectively, 𝐶𝜀1 =
= 1.44 and 𝐶∈2 = 1.92 are coefficients and S (m2/s3) is the production due to shear,
expressed in the form
𝜇
𝑠 = 𝐸𝑖𝑗 𝐸𝑖𝑗 (7)
𝜌
where the component 𝐸𝑖𝑗 (s-1) denotes the rate of deformation.
Table 1Different geometric parameters used in the present study of raceway pond
Length(m) Width(m) Depth(m) Aspect Velocity
L W D ratio (m/s)
20 4 0.40 5 0.30
20 2 0.40 10 0.30
30 2 0.40 15 0.30
40 2 0.40 20 0.30
3.1 Effect of velocity distribution on aspect ratio

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December 22 -24, 2022
The raceway pond has been designed for various aspect ratio as shown in Figure 3 to analyze
the effect of velocity distribution. It has been observed that most of the dead zone can be
observed near adjacent edge of centre wall in all cases. The increase in velocity is not suitable
for growth of microalgae as reported in literature. The velocity less than 0.1 m/s is termed as
dead zone (Sompech et al., 2012) where there is chances of settlement of algae cell. In Figure
3(a) the formation of dead zone is more near adjacent edge of centre wall. The maximum
inlet velocity is varied from 0.165 m/s to 0.219 m/s which start decreasing as it moves toward
centre wall. The increase in velocity can be observed near wall also. In Figure 3 (b) the
increase of velocity near wall is more as compared to aspect ratio 5. Near bend also slight
formation of dead zone can be observed. In Figure 3 (c) for aspect ratio 15 the formation of
dead zone is reducing near centre wall and also increase of velocity near wall is reducing.
The inlet velocity of magnitude 0.149 m/s is observed. Similarly for aspect ratio 20 the
formation of dead zone is reduced as compared to other aspect ratio and velocity reduction
near side wall is also observed. Hence it can be stated that increasing the aspect ratio
reduction in flow velocity can be observed. Larger the aspect ratio lesser will be the velocity
of flow. The maximum increase of velocity can be observed for smaller aspect ratio. The
formation of dead zone is mostly observed at the bend and near the central wall, this may also
be due to the formation of vortex flow with high velocity at the smallest distance near the
edge of the central wall and low velocity at a longer radius of curvature near the curved bend
(Hickin, 2003). Also around the curved portion, the level of liquid may vary from higher
hydrostatic pressure near the curved portion to lower hydrostatic pressure near the edge of the
center wall. As per Bernoulli’s principle, the outer wall having higher pressure is followed by
lower flow velocity, whereas the low pressure near the inner curve is followed by large flow
velocity, and this explains the phenomenon of dead zone (Sompech et al., 2012)
3.2 Effect of pressure distribution on various aspect ratio
For various design of raceway pond as shown in Figure 4 (a)-(d) the significant effect of
pressure can be observed. The negative pressure can be observed at inlet and at mid portion
of raceway pond as shown in Figure 4 (a) for smaller aspect ratio which starts increasing
towards outlet. In Figure 4 (b) the negetive pressure is experienced at inlet which increases as
the flow progress towards bend. Similar observation can be observed for other aspect ratio
also as shown in Figure 4 (c) –(d). The pressure exerted is more for smaller aspect ratio this
may be due to increase of velocity in that particular region.
3.3 Effect of Eddy viscosity on various aspect ratio
The eddy viscosity leads to damage to algae cell so the region were formation of eddy is
more is not suitable for production of algae. In Figure 5 (a) the formation of eddy is more
near bend which significantly reduces near edge of centre wall. The negligible formation of
eddy id observed at outlet in all cases. In Figure 5 (b) the formation of eddy is more near wall
of centre wall and bends. Also for aspect ratio 15 the formation of eddy is more at bend and
near wall of centre wall as shown in Figure 5 (c). This finding significantly reduces for larger
aspect ratio i.e 20 the formation of eddy is less as compared to other aspect ratio at mid depth
of pond. Hence it can be stated that aspect ratio 20 leads to less formation of eddy.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 3Longitudinal velocity contour at for aspect ratio (a) 5.0, (b) 10.0, (c) 15.0 and (d)
20.0
Figure 4Longitudinal pressure contour at for aspect ratio (a) 5.0, (b) 10.0, (c) 15.0 and (d)
20.0
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 5Longitudinal eddy viscosity contour at for aspect ratio (a) 5.0, (b) 10.0, (c) 15.0 and
(d) 20.0
Figure 6compare of longitudinal velocity contour for two different location of paddle wheel
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 7compare of longitudinal velocity contour graph for two different location of paddle
wheel (a) for 0.25 L (b) 0.50 L
4. Conclusions
The following conclusions are obtained from present study:

(i) The results stressed that the hydrodynamic performance of raceways is highly sensitive to
the aspect ratio of the raceway pond.
(ii) The dead zone decreases as aspect ratio increases.contour of velocity along lateral
direction shows that the magnitude of velocity increases as going away from the middle
wall.
References
Amini, H., Hashemisohi, A., Wang, L., Shahbazi, A., Bikdash, M., KC, D. and Yuan, W. (2016).
Numerical and experimental investigation of hydrodynamics and light transfer in open raceway
ponds at various algal cell concentration and medium depth.Chemical Engineering
Science,156,11-23.
Hadiyanto, H., Elmore, S., Van Gerven, T. and Stankiewicz, A. (2013). Hydrodynamic evaluations in
high-rate algae pond (HRAP) design, Chemical Engineering Journal, 217, 231–239.
Liffmen, K., Paterson, D.A., Liovic, P., Bandopadhayay, P. (2013). Comparing the energy efficiency
of different high rate algal raceway pond designs using computational fluid dynamics.Chemical
Engineering Research and Design, 91(2), 221–226.
Lima, A., Marinho, B. and Morios, T. (2020). Hydrodynamics analysis of flow in raceway ponds for
algae cultivation for versetile condition. Aquaculture International, (29), 19-35.
Morera, R.P.M., Reina, A.C., Molina, P.S., Perez, J.A.S. and Puma, G.L. (2021). Computational fluid
dynamics (CFD) modeling of removal of contaminants of emerging concern in solar photo-
Fenton raceway pond reactors. Chemical Engineering Journal,413, 127-192.
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
R, Hreiz., B, Sialve., J, Morchain., R, Escudie., J, P. Steyer., P, Guiraud. (2014). Experimental and

numerical investigation of hydrodynamics in raceway reactors used for algaculture.Chemical
Engineering Journal,250,230-239.
Sawant, S.S., Khadamkar, H.P., Mathpati, C.S, Pandit, R. and Lali, A.M. (2017). Computational and
experimental studies of high depth algal raceway pond photo-bioreactor. Renewable Energy an
International Journal,118,152-159.
Sompech, K., Chisti, Y., Srinophakun, T. (2012). Design of raceway ponds for producing microalgae.
Biofuels, 3(4),387–397. Terry KL, Raymond LP. (1985). System design for the autotrophic
production of microalgae. Enzyme Microb Technol,7, 474–87.
Y, Chisti. (2007). Biodiesel from microalgae. Biotechnology advanced,25,294-306C.
Page 9
27 th International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental and Coastal
December 22 -24, 2022
Hydraulic Conductivity of Porous Media: Influence

of Grain-size distribution and Angularity
Rajnish Chaudhary1, Abhishish Chandel2, Vijay Shankar3
1
P.G. Scholar, National Institute of Technology, Hamirpur, India
2
Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology, Hamirpur, India
3
Associate Professor, National Institute of Technology, Hamirpur, India
Email: rajnishrc746@gmail.com, abhishishchandel@gmail.com, vsdogra12@gmail.com
Abstract
Hydraulic Conductivity (K) is regarded as one of the most crucial parameters in groundwater
and soil mechanics. It depends on several factors i.e., grain-size distribution, grain-size(dg),
angularity(η), and porosity of the porous media. The study focuses on K variation in relation
to grain-size distribution and η. Five samples with varying grain-size distributions were taken
for the experimental work. Hydraulic conductivity was measured experimentally for the five
soil samples using a constant head permeameter and a theoretical model for K estimation has
been developed by examining the dependence of η and dg on K. Further, the K values
obtained from the experimental results were compared with the developed theoretical model
and pre-existing empirical formulas i.e., Hazen, Beyer, Kozeny-Carman, Slichter, Terzaghi,
and United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) formula. Based on the analysis of
estimated K using empirical formulas, it was concluded that the best overall estimation of K
is obtained using the Kozeny-Carman formula followed by the Hazen formula. Also, the K
computed using the theoretical model results in the precise estimation of K values.
Keywords: Angularity, Hydraulic Conductivity, Porosity, Permeameter
1. Introduction
The hydraulic conductivity (K) represents the ability of a porous medium to transmit water
through its interconnected voids and its precise estimation is important in aquifer studies. Its
magnitude and variability significantly influence groundwater flow patterns. Determining K
is an important parameter for various water resources and geotechnical projects and can be
determined by field & laboratory tests, and empirical relationships. Accurate estimation of K
in the field environment by the field methods is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of
aquifer geometry and hydraulic boundaries (Uma et al., 1989). Also, the field methods
involve cost factors and a long testing time which makes them a less reliable approach.
Laboratory tests, on the other hand, present formidable problems in the sense of obtaining
representative samples and long testing times (Holtz et al., 2011).
Because of these limitations of laboratory and field methods, indirect methods, such as
predicting K from easily measurable soil properties, have been developed (Cirpka, 2003). As
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December 22 -24, 2022
Head and Epps (2011) suggested, K is affected by the shape and texture of soil grains.
Elongated or irregular particles create flow paths that are more tortuous than those spherical
particles. Several research works conclude that particle shape influences the properties of
porous media and K is among the documented properties affected by particle shape. In most
of the early investigations, spherical particles were used as the bed material. For this reason,
it has become customary to choose the sphere as a reference shape and to introduce the idea
of the shape factor if the shape is different from the spherical one. In other words, shape
factors are intended to describe quantitatively the deviation of the particle configuration from
that sphere (Wadell, 1935).
Notably, the textural properties of the soils are more easily obtained, hence, a potential
alternative for estimating the K of porous media is from grain-size distribution (Odong,
2007). Hence, methods of estimating K from empirical formulae based on easy-to-measure
grain-size distribution characteristics have been developed by various researchers. Numerous
investigators have derived different formulae based on their research work. Kozeny (1927)
proposed a formula that was then modified by Carman (1937, 1956) to become the Kozeny-
Carman equation. Other researchers including Hazen (1892), Beyer (1964), Slichter (1899),
Terzaghi (1925), and C. Mallet & J. Pacquant (USBR formula, 1951) also proposed empirical
formulae to estimate K. The applicability of these formulae depends on the type of soil for
which K is to be estimated. Vukovic & Soro (1992) noted that the applications of different
empirical formulae to the same porous medium material can yield different values of K,
which may differ by a factor of 10 or even 20.
From the literature review, it has been observed that limited research work has been exported
to propose a K model using η and dg of porous media.
The objectives of the study are:
i) To study the variation between the Friction factor (Fr) and Reynold’s number (Re) to
govern the flow regime.
ii) To derive a relationship for the K estimation of porous media using η and dg.
1.1 Established Empirical Formulae:

Vukovic & Soro (1992) summarized several empirical methods from previous studies and
presented a general equation for hydraulic conductivity:
K = (g/υ). C. f(n). (de)2 (1)
where C is the sorting coefficient, f(n) represents the porosity function and de is the effective
grain diameter.
The values of C, f(n) and de are dependent on the different methods used in the grain-size
analysis. Porosity (n) may be derived from the empirical relationship with the coefficient of
grain uniformity (U) as follows:
n = 0.255(1 + 0.83U) (2)
where U is the uniformity coefficient and is given by:
U = d60/d10 (3)
where, d60 & d10 represent the grain diameter in (mm) for which, 60% & 10% of the sample
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December 22 -24, 2022
respectively, are finer.
1.1.1 Hazen’s formula:

g
K = υ × 6 × 10-4[1+10(n - 0.26)] d210 (4)
Hazen formula was originally developed for the determination of K of uniformly graded sand
but is also useful for fine sand to gravel range, provided the sediment has U < 5 & d10 values
varying between 0.1 mm and 3 mm.
1.1.2 Beyer’s formula:
g
K = υ × 6 × 10-4 log(500/U) d210 (5)
This method does not consider porosity and therefore, the porosity function takes on value 1.
Beyer formula is often considered most useful for materials with heterogeneous distributions
and poorly sorted grains with U between 1 and 20 & d10 values between 0.06 mm and 0.6
mm.
1.1.3 Kozeny-Carman equation:
g 𝑛3
K= × 8.3 × 10-3 [(1−𝑛)2 ] d210 (6)
υ
This equation is suitable for gravel, sand, and silty soil with d 10 less than 3.0 mm.
1.1.4 Slichter’s formula:
g
K = υ × 8.3 × 10-3 × n3.287 × d210 (7)
The formula is most applicable for d10 values between 0.01 mm and 5 mm.
1.1.5 Terzaghi’s formula:
g 𝑛−0.013 2
K = υ ×[(1−𝑛)1/3 ] × d210 (8)
-3 -3
where Ct is the sorting coefficient and it varies between 6.3×10 and 10.7×10 . In this study,
an average value of Ct = 8.4×10-3 is used. Terzaghi formula is most applicable for large-grain
sand.
1.1.6 USBR formula:
g
K = υ × 4.8 × 10-4 × d2.320 (9)
The formula calculates K from the effective grain size (d20) and does not depend on porosity;
hence porosity function is unity and is most suitable for medium-grain sand with U < 5.
2. Materials and Methodology

In the present study, five soil samples of varying grain sizes i.e., Dolomite (2.24 cm, 2.64 cm,
3.15 cm), Marble chips (0.63 cm, 1 cm, 1.12 cm), River gravel (1.6 cm, 2 cm, 2.24cm), Sand
(0.03 cm, 0.085 cm, 0.118 cm), and Crushed quartzite (0.4cm, 0.63 cm, 0.8 cm), were used.
The soil samples were tested for grain size distribution according to the standard procedures
by carrying out a dry sieve analysis. The distribution of the particles was analyzed by plotting
a semi-logarithmic graph between percentage passing and grain sizes to obtain grain-size
distribution curves for each sample, which is shown in figure 1. From these curves, the values
of d10, d20, d30, d50, and d60 were determined and the values of U & n were also calculated
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December 22 -24, 2022
(shown in table 1). Further, K values for all five soil samples were computed using the
aforementioned empirical formulae.
110
100
90
Percentage Passing (%)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0.01 0.1 1 10
Grain size (cm)
Dolomite Marble chips River gravel Sand Crushed quartzite
Figure 1 Grain size distribution curve
Table 1 Parameters obtained from grain size distribution curve

d10 d20 d30 d50 d60
S. No. Material U n
(cm) (cm) (cm) (cm) (cm)
1 Dolomite 2.3 2.54 2.78 2.9 3.05 1.326 0.454
2 Marble Chips 0.92 1.12 1.24 1.37 1.6 1.739 0.439

3 River Gravel 2.1 2.25 2.4 2.72 2.78 1.324 0.454
4 Sand 0.036 0.042 0.062 0.08 0.115 3.194 0.396
Crushed
5 0.49 0.52 0.57 0.9 0.97 1.98 0.431
Quartzite
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December 22 -24, 2022
Experimental values of K were determined using a vertical flow type constant head
permeameter with the main permeameter section consisting of a 10.16 cm internal diameter
having a total and test length of 106 cm and 46.5 cm respectively. Four pressure tapings were
provided along the circumference of the permeameter at the starting and ending points of the
test length. The permeameter's inlet was controlled by a 2.54 cm diameter outlet sluice valve.
Discharge was measured by collecting water in a graduated container for a certain period
using a stopwatch. The manometers were supported on a wooden board with a graduated
scale in cm. The arrangement of pressure tapings helps in recording the manometer readings.
The permeameter receives its water supply from an overhead tank where a constant head is
maintained using a continuous supply of water. The inlet portion of the permeameter was
taken off to fill the permeameter with the materials to be tested. The weight of the material to
be filled in permeameter is calculated as:
Ws = (1 – n) VT× Gs× γw (10)
where n is porosity, VT is the volume of the tube, Gs is the specific gravity of the material and
γw is the specific weight of the water.
The material was packed within the permeameter in layers, with each layer compacted using
a steel rod after the surface leveling. The number of blows for compacting the material varied
for different materials. Then, the permeameter was fixed in the vertical position and
connected to the water supply. The inlet and outlet valves were kept open for some time to
make the material saturated. Also, the air in the manometer tubes was removed before
carrying out the test. After removing the air, the outlet value was completely opened to start
the test with maximum discharge. The specific gravity of the materials was determined by
using the pycnometer method which was further used to compute the porosity values.
2.1 Angularity test:

A cylinder having a diameter of 15 cm and a depth of 30.5 cm is filled in three layers with
each layer subjected to 100 blows of tamping rod at a rate of about two blows per second.
After the third layer of aggregate has been tamped, the cylinder shall be filled to overflowing,
and the aggregate struck off level with the top, using the tamping rod as a straight edge. For
the finishing process, individual aggregate is added by rolling into the surface by rolling the
tamping rod across the upper edge of the cylinder (IS 2386-1, 1963).
Angularity is determined as a measure of the angularity number which is calculated as:
Wc
Angularity, η = 100[1 − WwGs ] (11)
η = 100(1 – n) (12)
Angularity number (A.N.) = η – 33 (13)
where n is the porosity or percentage voids when the material is compacted in a standard
manner, Wc is the weight of the aggregate in the cylinder, Ww is the weight of the water
required to fill the cylinder and G s is the specific gravity of the aggregates.
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
3. Results and Discussion

3.1 Relationship between angularity and size of particles
The experimental data of angularity number tests were analyzed to investigate the
relationship between angularity and the size of the materials used. A study of these results
reveals that the angularity of the material decreases with increasing size. Figure 2 depicts a
graph plotted between the log of angularity (log η) and the log of the geometric mean
diameter (log dg) which follows the equation:
log η = k log dg + log C' (14)
This equation can be simplified as:
η = C'dkg (15)
The value of index k in this equation was found to be constant at – 0.0439 for all the
materials from figure 2. The above equation can be written as:
C' = ηd0.0439
g (16)
C' is the parameter defining the angularity and depends on the shape of the particles.
1.68
1.67
1.66
1.65
1.64
log η
1.63
1.62
1.61
1.6
1.59
-1.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.9
log dg
Figure 2 Curve of log η vs log dg
3.2 Variation between Friction factor (Fr) and Reynold’s number (Re)
The results of the experimental investigation, for different materials used, are plotted on a
log-log graph as Fr vs Re which is shown in figure 3-7.
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
1000
Friction Factor (Fr)
100
100 1000
Reynold's Number (Re)
Dolomite
Figure 3 Curve of Friction Factor vs Reynold’s Number for Dolomite
1000
100
10 100 1000
Marble Chips
Figure 4 Curve of Friction Factor vs Reynolds Number for Marble Chips
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
1000
100
100 1000
River gravel
Figure 5 Curve of Friction Factor vs Reynolds Number for River Gravel
100000
10000
1000
100
0.01 0.1 1 10
Sand
Figure 6 Curve of Friction Factor Vs Reynolds Number for Sand

Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
10000
1000
100
10
1 10 100
Crushed quartzite
Figure 7 Curve of Friction Factor Vs Reynolds Number for Crushed quartzite
3.3 Suggested model for K estimation

The variations between Fr and Re were found to follow a straight line, showing that the flow
is in a linear regime. The results follow an equation of the form:
C
Fr = R1 (17)
e
2igdg C1
= ρvdg (18)
v2
μ
Putting v = Ki
K 2ρg
= (19)
dg2 μC1
K 2g
= νC = C (20)
dg2 1
Where C1 is a constant that for a given porosity depends only on the shape of particles and C
is the parameter defining the permeability of the materials.
From equation 16, it is obvious that the coefficient C′ depends on the shape of the particles.
Similarly, factor C in equation 20, which defines the K of the material, is also dependent on
shape only provided that the porosity and other factors are constant. Therefore, we can write
that, C′ is a function of C. Mathematically, this can be expressed as.
C′ = F (C) (21)
Further, to study the relationship between C′ and C, values of C′ and C obtained from
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
experimental results are plotted as log C vs log C′ in figure 8.
3
log C
1.5
0
1.56 1.58 1.6 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.68 1.7
log C'
Figure 8 Curve of log C vs log C′
All the points in figure 8 appear to follow the straight-line law given by
log C′ = log B + m log C (22)
Equation 22 can be simplified as
C′ = B Cm (23)
The value of B and m in the above equation are obtained with the help of figure 8.
The final equation can be written as:
C′ = 22.99 C0.3134 (24)
22.99
C- 0.3134 = C′ (25)
Putting the value of C' and C from equation 16 and equation 20 respectively, the above
equation can be expressed as:
K −0.3134 22.99
[ 2
] = ηdg0.0439 (26)
dg
4 ×10−5 × dg2.14
K= (27)
η−3.19
The proposed formula i.e., equation 27, can be used to estimate the K of porous media by
using the angularity and grain-size characteristics.
3.4 Results of different empirical approaches

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December 22 -24, 2022
Overall results showed that the Beyer approach is most effective when applied to the analysis
of porous samples that have high angularity values. Because of this, it was determined to be
the most accurate approach for estimating K values for marble chips, crushed quartzite, and
river gravel. However, the method underestimated the K values for samples with low
angularity, such as sand. The Kozeny–Carman formula, which takes into account particle size
distribution and shape, is usually more accurate than the Hazen formula, which solely
considers the d10 particle size. The results obtained from empirical formulae are then
compared with experimental and theoretical results as depicted in table 2.
Table 2 Comparison of K-values

Empirical
Experi Theor
S. No. Material mental etical Hazen K-C Beyer Slichter Terzaghi USBR
(cm/s) (cm/s) (cm/s) (cm/s) (cm/s) (cm/s) (cm/s) (cm/s)
1 Dolomite 44.61 23.13 90.776 134.231 79.503 38.415 67.975 79.455
Marble
2 18.1 8.15 13.795 18.440 12.139 5.514 9.734 12.083
chips
River
3 45.77 34.95 75.697 111.998 66.297 32.044 56.702 60.121
gravel
4 Sand 1.6 0.37 0.0178 0.017 0.016 0.006 0.0104 0.0063
Crushed
5 29.88 3.13 3.800 4.808 3.364 1.471 2.594 2.069
quartzite
4. Conclusion
The study involves a comparison of K values obtained from experimental work, empirical
formulae, and a proposed K equation based on angularity & grain size. The proposed formula
can be used to estimate the K values for comparable shape particles of a given size simply by
performing the angularity tests and sieve analysis. The study infers that η of the material
decreases with increasing grain size. To govern the flow regime, variations between Fr and
Re for different materials were studied, which were found to be linear, meaning, flow is in a
Darcy regime. It has been observed that angularity relates inversely to the K value, which
means as the angularity of the material increases the K value decreases. Analysis of empirical
formulae revealed that the Kozeny-Carman formula, followed by the Hazen formula,
provided the most accurate estimation of K values for the samples under study. The Beyer
formula, on the other hand, is best for estimating K values for heterogeneous soil samples.
Page 11
December 22 -24, 2022
5. References
Uma, K. O., Egboka, B. C. E., & Onuoha, K. M. (1989). New statistical grain-size method
for evaluating the hydraulic conductivity of sandy aquifers. Journal of Hydrology, 108, 343-
366.
Holtz, R. D., Kovacs, W. D., & Sheahan, T. C. (1981). An introduction to geotechnical
engineering (Vol. 733). Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
Cirpka, O. A. (2003). Environmental fluid mechanics I: flow in natural hydro
systems. Journal of Hydrology, 283, 53-66.
Head, K. H., & Epps, R. J. (2011). Manual of Soil Laboratory Testing Volume II:
Permeability, Shear Strength and Compressibility Tests. Whittles, Caithness.
Wadell, H. (1935). Volume, shape, and roundness of quartz particles. The Journal of
Geology, 43(3), 250-280.
Odong, J. (2007). Evaluation of empirical formulae for determination of hydraulic
conductivity based on grain-size analysis. Journal of American Science, 3(3), 54-60.
Kozeny, J. (1927). Via capillary conduit the water in the ground. Royal Academy of Science,
Vienna, Proc. Class I, 136, 271-306.
Carman, P. C. (1937). Fluid flow through granular beds. Trans. Inst. Chem. Eng., 15, 150-
166.
Carman, P. C. (1956). Flow of gases through porous media.
Hazen, A. (1892). Some physical properties of sands and gravels, with special reference to
their use in filtration. Massachusetts State Board of Health, 24th Annual Report, 539–556.
Beyer, W. (1964). On the determination of hydraulic conductivity of gravels and sands from
grain-size distributions. Wasserwirtschaft-wassertechnik, 14(6), 165-169.
Slichter, C. S. (1899). Theoretical investigation of the motion of ground waters. The 19th
Ann. Rep. US Geophys Survey., 304-319.
Terzaghi, K. A. R. L. (1925). Principles of soil mechanics. Engineering News-Record, 95(19-
27), 19-32.
Mallet, C., & Pacquant, J. (1951). Earth dams. Editions Eyrolles, Paris,
Milan, V., & Andjelko, S. (1992). Determination of hydraulic conductivity of porous media
from grain-size composition (No. 551.49 V 986).
IS2386–Part, I. I. I. (1963). Methods of test for aggregates for concrete. Bureau of Indian
Standards, 11-4.
Page 12
Modelling of Local Scour Depth around Bridge Piers using Large Eddy
Simulation
Baranwal, A.1, Das, B.S.2
1
Ph.D. Research Scholar, Civil Engineering Department, NIT Patna, India
(anubhavnitp18@gmail.com)
2
Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department, NIT Patna, India (Orcid:0000-0003-
1140-0432)
ABSTRACT
The study of scouring around bridge piers is very significant for the safe and economical design
of bridges over waterways. The process of scouring occurred due to obstruction of flow in the
river causing a formation of horseshoe vortices around the piers due to these vortices sediment
around the pier gets eroded and flows out with the water. Clear-water scours condition occurred
when the shear stress of the bed sediments equals the critical stress after that scouring of bed
sediment does not happen and live bed scour condition exits till scour depth varies continuously
as sediment inflow and outflow from scour hole. In these conditions, scour depth around the
pier continuously changes but equilibrium scour depth remains the same. To model the scour
depth around the bridge piers in recent days computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is widely
used as it is cost-effective and time-saving. In this study, an attempt has been made to model
the local scour depth around bridge piers by using the large eddy simulation (LES) model for
simulation purposes. To model the scour depth, Melville (1975) experimental is used. For the
analysis, bridge pier is placed at different locations on the upstream and downstream sides of
the rectangular flume. The wall boundary condition is used at the bottom and inner and outer
walls whereas the symmetry boundary condition is used at the top surface only. At the
beginning of the flume, the velocity is taken as an inlet boundary condition. The performance
of the model is analyzed based on the variation of velocity and eddy viscosity around the bridge
pier.
Keywords: Local scour, ANSYS (FLUENT), LES turbulence model, CFD
1. Introduction
The bridge piers built in rivers or water bodies come across various hydraulic forces due to the
flowing water. These forces are maximum during flood periods. If a bridge is unable to bear
these forces, destabilization of the structure occurs. This can lead to huge life loss, property
loss, money loss etc. Over the past three decades, some interesting studies have attempted to
reproduce the flow patterns around bridge piers using a detailed 3D representation of the
turbulent horseshoe vortex system that triggers scour at bridge piers as shown in Figure 1. Two
equations of eddy-viscosity models are used to solve the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes
(RANS) equations, such as one equation for the turbulence kinetic energy and the second
equation associated with the turbulent length scale (Menter 1993). To simulate the flow field
and sediment transport, most CFD investigations incorporate hydrodynamic and morphologic
Page 1
models. There are three types of hydrodynamic models: stable Reynolds-Averaged Navier-
Stokes (RANS) equations, unsteady RANS (URANS), and Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The
k-ε and k-ω turbulence closures are the most important RANS simulation models. The Navier-
Stokes (N-S) equations explain the motion of the fluid, which is generally connected with
turbulence. The spatial and temporal range of turbulence can be resolved by the Navier-Stokes
(N-S) equations of direct numerical simulation (DNS). Although DNS is the most accurate
method for scour depth modelling, it is limited to low Reynolds values due to its prohibitive
computing cost.
Figure 1 Flow pattern around a circular pier (Hammil 1999)
A simplified model would combine the continuity equation with the RANS equations
compared to DNS in modelling scour depth around bridge pier (Nagata et al. 2005; Liu and
Garca 2008; Kirkil et al. 2009; Aghaee and Hakimzadeh 2010; Zhao et al. 2010; Zhou 2017;
Zaid et al. 2019; and Yu and Zhu 2020). Large Eddy Simulation (LES) was initially introduced
for simulating atmospheric flows in the 1960s (Smagorinsky 1963) and has become one of the
most successful methodologies for eddy-resolved modelling of turbulent flows (Zhiyin 2014).
Olsen and Melaaen (1993) presented the first three-dimensional (3D) numerical investigation
on local scour, predicting the formation of a scour hole at the base of a circular pier using a
steady state Navier– Stokes solver and a sediment transport algorithm. Despite being widely
used, the k-ε model has several drawbacks including a lack of sensitivity to adverse pressure
gradients. The model overestimates shear stress which is a common issue in flow separation
modelling (Menter, 1993). Fukuoka et al. (1994) and Olsen and Kjellesvig (1998) investigated
the three-dimensional scour depth around the bridge pier using the finite volume method
(FVM) with k- turbulence model and reported that the maximum scour depth calculated from
the developed numerical model is approximately similar to selected empirical formulas. Breuer
(1998) studied the numerical and modelling influences on Large Eddy simulations for the flow
past a circular cylinder. Tseng et al. (2000) performed the three-dimensional flow analysis
around the circular and square shapes of piers using the experimental work of Dargahi (1989)
and found that the LES model can provide better results. Ali and Karim (2002) used the
experimental data of Yanmaz and Altinbilek (1990) to conduct a numerical simulation of the
flow around a bridge pier with the help of the ANSYS (FLUENT) CFD model. It is reported
Page 2
that ANSYS (FLUENT) is not capable of predicting turbulent bursts which causes the removal
of sediment from the bed. Catalano (2003) performed LES simulations of the flow around a
circular cylinder at high Reynolds numbers. Salaheldin et al. (2004) utilized the experimental
data of Melville (1975), Dargahi (1987), and Ahmed and Rajaratnam (1998) for the three-
dimensional flow analysis of scouring around circular bridge piers. Reynolds stress model
(RSM) has been used for modelling the scour depth and suggested checking the strength of the
model while applying it to the complex flow problem. Kuroda et al. (2007) studied the flow
around a rectangular cylinder (applying LES) and then compared the results with particle image
velocimetry (PIV) data. Using the data set of Roulund et al. (2005), Liu and Garcia (2008)
performed a study using the 3D CFD model for local sediment scour with free water surface
and mesh deformation. The volume of fluid (VOF) approach is used to simulate the free
surface, whereas the moving mesh method is used to model the scouring process. To capture
the complicated scouring characteristics, the Eulerian approach was applied. Zhao and Huhe
(2006) presented a 3D LES of the flow around a cylindrical pier. Kirkil et al. (2009) combined
the unsteady RANS and LES or detached-eddy simulations (DES) approach and strengthened
the understanding of the complex scour initiation phenomenon by comparing the observed
numerical results to experimental works. Khosonejad et al. (2012) investigated local scour
around cylinder, square, and diamond-shaped bridge piers in clear water using both
experimental and computational methods. The fluid-structure interaction curvilinear immersed
boundary (FSI-CURVIB) approach is used to manage movable-bed channels with embedded
hydraulic structures. The ability of unsteady RANS morpho-dynamic k- model to predict
scour depth for diamond-shaped pier improves significantly, where sediment transport is
predominantly influenced by shear layers generated from the sharp edges of the pier. The
URANS model underestimates both the scour depth at the nose of the pier and the rate of scour
growth for piers with blunt leading edges, such as circular and square shapes. This is because
the model is unable to resolve the energetic horseshoe vortex system at the pier and bed
junction. Reviews of advances in the use of LES to study flow around bodies can be found in
Majeed et al. (2015) and Schanderl and Manhart (2016), with the latter focused on the bed
shear stress around a cylinder. Burkow (2016) conducted a study with help of the LES
turbulence model with the Smagorinsky approach to calculate the scouring around a
rectangular shape of the obstruction with help of a fully three-dimensional numerical
simulation of the sediment transport. Sediment transport and its relationship to shear stress and
transport rates are observed to be controlled by the typical vortex system. Zhang (2017)
observed that the flow field and local scour around the three neighbouring piles are
significantly impacted by the dimensionless pile spacing. It was discovered that the RNG k-
ε model, which does not require a very fine mesh, might significantly reduce calculation time
more than the LES model. The RNG k -ε model could be used to characterise low-intensity
turbulence flows, which are more precise for studying the scouring of silt and have stronger
shear zones. Omara et al. (2018) conducted a study to assess the simulation of local scour
phenomenon both hydrodynamically and morphologically around vertical and inclined bridge
piers. FLOW-3D v. 11.2, including sediment transport equations (Ahmed and Rajaratnam
1998) has been used to calculate the scour around the pier. It is observed that the FLOW-3D
model unfortunately underestimated the vertical velocity upstream of the pier. It is reported
that the 3D hydro morphological model can be effectively used to predict the scour depth
around piers. Zaid et al. (2019) mentioned that CFD multiphase models are fairly new and there
Page 3
are very few approaches like the volume of fluid (VOF), Euler-Euler and Euler-Lagrange
procedure available to effectively model scour around bridge piers. It is suggested that for the
numerical analysis LES model performed better than RANS turbulent model for capturing the
vortex shedding behind the pier. Yu and Zhu (2020) used novel inlet turbulent boundary
conditions with the Self-sustaining model (SSM), k-ԑ turbulence model, and sediment collapse
model and reported that the scour depth of the square nose shape of the pier is the maximum,
while the scour depth of the sharp nose shape of the pier is the shortest among the selected four
pier shapes sharp nose, cylinder, round nose, and square nose shapes of the pier. The k- ω
model equations, according to Aly and Dougherty (2021), can simulate adverse pressure
gradients; however, the k-ε equations consistently proposed better in approximating the
experimental data, particularly in term of velocity components. Liu et al. (2022) developed a
numerical model using a finite element solver and k-ω turbulence model to calculate the local
scour depth around two vertical piles and compared the scour depth results with Roulund et al.
(2005).
2. ANSYS (FLUENT)
ANSYS (FLUENT) is an advanced software which enables one to do all the engineering-related
simulations of problems related to fluid dynamics, chemical engineering, environmental
engineering, hydrodynamics, metaphysics, electromagnetic, structural mechanics and so on. In this
project, we have particularly used FLUENT because we are concerned with the system’s fluid
dynamics. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a mathematical tool based on computer
programming. The growing interest in the field of CFD-based simulations has been widely used by
engineers in all those areas where experimental or numerical analysis becomes cumbersome.
Determination of the movement of fluid in detail by solving a system set of nonlinear governing
equations after the use of specified boundary conditions over the ambit of interest is the basic
principle which is used in the analysis of CFD problems. The simulations based on CFD are
contingent upon combined numerical accuracy, cost of computations and precision of modelling.
Using ANSYS (FLUENT) CFD, virtually, the system of fluid flow can be simulated using
computer analysis. Analysis can be started by first creating a mathematical model of the physics
problem associated. The CFD method of solving entails 3 approaches: 1) Finite Difference
Method, 2) Finite Element Method and 3) Finite Volume Method
3. Numerical Model
The LES approach is used in this article. In the LES approach, the scales larger than the filter
width are resolved with the spatially filtered 3-D, time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations.
The governing equations are discretized using a second-order accurate cell-cantered finite-
volume method with the up-winding scheme. A second-order implicit scheme is used for all
time-dependent terms, which is unconditionally stable concerning the time-step size. The
pressure-velocity coupling scheme of the Pressure-Implicit with Splitting of Operators
(PISO)is used, which can reduce the number of iterations required for convergence.
3.1 Experimental Model Setup
Page 4
The purpose of this study is to provide a model for industrial development. Since ANSYS
(FLUENT) is a well-known commercial CFD software that is used by many engineers globally,
it was employed in this work to facilitate quicker acceptance by the industry. The current
simulation requires the use of mesh morphological models for mesh motion and deformation,
which are built-in features of this software for modelling diverse flows using turbulence
models. Additionally, FLUENT has a user-defined function (UDF), which enables users to
create custom C language subroutines to customise the simulations being run. The simulated
scour findings, including the development pattern, were comprehensively compared with
Melville (1975) experimental results to ensure the developed 3D CFD simulation approach.
The Melville (1975) used flume with dimensions 19.0 m long and 0.456 m wide is
considered for modelling purposes. The flume was then gradually filled with running water
until it reached the necessary depth of 15.0 cm. The flume bed also has a 1/10,000
longitudinal slope, and an interior bridge pier model with a diameter of 5.08 cm is placed.
Figure 2 Plan view of Melville (1975) experimental setup
The model of circular bridge piers was positioned at 15.0 m from the upstream (U/S) side of
the flume as shown in Figure 2. The experiment was started by simultaneously opening the
downstream (D/S) sluice gate and the valve controlling discharge to a predetermined opening.
The average flow velocity is fixed at 0.25 m/s, and the bed medium sand diameter (d 50) is
established at 0.385 mm. Throughout this experiment, several experimental data sets were
properly recorded, and they provided a useful verification object for numerous numerical
simulations.
3.2 Mesh Geometrical Dimensions
The accuracy of the numerical results increases with the increase in the fineness of the meshing.
But it also leads to a greater time required to solve the model. Mesh generation is an important
pre-processing step in CFD. For two-dimensional flow situations, simple meshing such as
rectangular grid meshing can be used and for three-dimensional flow or complex flow
situations, tetrahedral meshing is used as shown in Figure 3. In Table 1 details of the mesh size,
meshing quality and mesh statics are depicted.
Page 5
Figure 3 The meshing of the circular pier
Table 1 A list of the details of mesh (Circular pier)

Defaults
Element order Quadratic
Element size 0.1 m
Sizing
Growth rate Default (1.2)
Max size Default (0.2 m)
Mesh defeaturing size Default (5e-004 m)
Minimum edge length 0.15 m
Average surface area 2.32 m2
Quality
Check mesh quality Yes, Errors
Target skewness Default (0.900000)
Smoothing High
Mesh matric None
Statistics
Nodes 14400
Elements 2320
3.3 Setup
The most crucial pre-processing phase in ANSYS (FLUENT) is setup. To solve the continuity
equation, momentum equation, and energy equation in this configuration, a bridge pier circular
model is employed. The multiphase model is deactivated for single-phase flow. The Reynolds
Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation is solved using k- with the Standard and SST
turbulence model due to turbulence of the flow. Flow circumstances have an impact on the
properties of the material. In the present investigation, water liquid with a circular pier shape
is chosen to flow across the riverbed.
3.4 Boundary Conditions

Page 6
Boundary conditions should be given at the inlet, outflow, top surface, bottom surface, and
flow domain side wall locations for numerical simulations. Their logical definitions play a
crucial role in fulfilling real physics. A no-slip condition is applied to the inlet and exit,
including the bed and pier surfaces, as shown in Figure 4. The symmetrical condition is placed
on the top surface, side surfaces, and bottom surfaces due to the limited computer resources.
Since the actual top boundary is a free surface, such a method could cause mistakes in flow
modelling. The fully developed turbulent flow is used at the outlet boundary. The velocity
profile and turbulence for the inlet are not known from experiments.
Figure 4 Computational domain and boundary conditions
The formulation of the specified boundary conditions in ANSYS (FLUENT) is shown in Table
2, where ux, uy, and uz are the flow velocity components in the x, y, and z directions.
Table 2 The input parameters at the boundary conditions

Section at the flume Boundary conditions Input parameters
Inlet Velocity inlet ux = 0.25 m/s, uy and uz = 0 m/s
Outlet Outflow ux, uy, and uz are free
Flow domain side wall Symmetry uy = 0 m/s, ux and uz = free
Top surface Symmetry ux and uy = free, uz = 0 m/s
Bottom surface Wall ux, uy, and uz = 0 m/s
Circular pier Wall ux, uy, and uz = 0 m/s
This study used the same empty computational domain, the same grid structure, the standard
k- turbulent model, and other simulation parameters. An established velocity and turbulence
profile after a sufficiently lengthy simulation will be transferred to the intake boundary of the
simulation with the pier included.
4.1 Velocity Distribution around the Cylindrical Pier

Page 7
The longitudinal velocity distribution is simulated through contour from the U/S side to the
D/S side at eight different sections having distances of X1, X2, X3 and X4 at 8 cm, 6 cm, 4 cm
and 2 cm respectively towards the upstream side from the centre of the bridge pier, X5 section
at centre and X6, X7, and X8 is 2 cm, 4 cm, and 6 cm towards D/S from centre of the bridge
pier respectively. In Figure. 5(a-c), on the U/S side of the bridge pier, indicates that the velocity
variation increases from the top to bottom as the flow approaches towards bridge piers. Figures.
5(g), and 5(h) indicate the velocity contour towards D/S of the bridge pier at the section X7
and X8 from the centre of the pier. It indicates that the velocity variation increases from the
top to bottom as the flow approaches towards bridge piers. In Figure. 6(a-c) velocity
distribution around the cylindrical shape of the bridge, pier is presented from the 0.1y, 0.5y and
0.9y distance from bottom to top where y is the flow depth of the stream in meter. In Figure.
6(b) at the mid of the bridge piers depth, the velocity is in the range of 0.21 to 0.24 m/s and
gradually increases towards the lateral direction. In Figure. 6(c) the velocity value was found
to be more than the inlet value and gradually increase towards the D/S side due to the slope of
the bed of the channel.
Figure 5 Velocity distribution around the cylindrical shape of the bridge pier from the centre
of the bridge pier at different sections (a-d) X1, X2, X3, X4 sections in the U/S side, (e) X5
section at centre and (f-h) X6, X7, X8 distance in the D/S side
Page 8
Figure 6 Velocity distribution around the cylindrical pier from bottom to top distance (a) at
0.1y, (b) at 0.5y (mid of the flume) and (c) at 0.9y where y is the flow depth of stream in meter
Figure 7 Eddy viscosity contour from the centre of the bridge pier at different sections (a-d)
X1, X2, X3, X4 sections in the U/S side, (e) X5 section and (f-h) X6, X7, X8 distance in the
D/S side
4.2 Variation of Eddy Viscosity around the Bridge Piers

In Figure 7(a-c), on the U/S side of the bridge pier, indicates that the eddy viscosity increases
from the side wall to the middle of section as the flow approaches towards bridge piers. Figure
Page 9
7(c) and Figure 7(e) indicate the eddy viscosity is maximum at the left side of the bridge pier
for the section at section X3 and X5 from the centre of the pier. It indicates that the eddy
viscosity increases from the U/S to D/S as the flow approaches towards bridge piers. In Figure.
8(a-c) eddy viscosity distribution around the cylindrical shape of the bridge pier is presented
from the 0.1y, 0.5y and 0.9y distance from bottom to top where y is the flow depth of the stream
in meter. In Figure 8(b) at the mid of the bridge piers depth, the viscosity variation gradually
increases towards the lateral direction. In Figure 8(c) viscosity variation was found to be more
and gradually increased towards the D/S side due to the slope of the bed of the channel.
Figure 8 Eddy viscosity around the cylindrical pier from bottom to top distance (a) at 0.1y, (b)
at 0.5y (mid of the flume) and (c) at 0.9y where y is the flow depth of stream in meter
Figure 9 Comparison of local mean velocity obtained from present numerical model (LES)
with Melville (1975) at X1 to X5 section in U/S side
Page 10
Figure 10 Comparison of local mean velocity obtained from present numerical model (LES)
with Melville (1975) at X5 to X8 section in D/S side
In Figure 9, developed LES model underestimated the local mean velocity component with the
Melville (1975) results at X5 section and overestimated at X1, X2, X3 and X4 sections. In
Figure 10, the developed LES model underestimated the local mean velocity component with
the Melville (1975) results at X5 section and overestimated at X6, X7, and X8 sections. For
section X6, X7 and X8, Melville (1975) local mean velocity for component value are not
available from the centre of the bridge pier to 2.0 cm to right side of flume, therefore, LES
model data is not included in Figure 10.
Conclusions
A CFD-based simulation has been conducted for bridge pier scour using LES turbulent models.
In the present study, the following conclusions are drawn:
 Local mean velocity variation increases from the top to bottom near the bridge pier on
the downstream side as the flow approaches towards bridge piers and its value was
found to be more than the inlet value and gradually increases towards the D/S side due
to the slope of the bed of the channel.
 The developed LES model underestimated the local mean velocity component with the
Melville (1975) results at X5 section and overestimated at X1, X2, X3 and X4 sections
on the U/S side and X6, X7, and X8 section on the D/S side.
 The eddy viscosity increases from the side wall to the centre of the bridge pier as the
flow approaches towards bridge piers and it is maximum at the left side of the bridge
pier for the section at section X3 and X5 from the centre of the pier.
This study will help in analysing the local mean velocity and eddy viscosity distributions
around the pier for the problem of scouring around the bridge pier.
References
Page 11
Aghaee, Y., and Hakimzadeh. H. (2010). Three dimensional numerical modeling of flow
around bridge piers using LES and RANS. River Flow 2010, 211-218.
Ahmed, F., and Rajaratnam, N. (1998). Flow around bridge piers. J. Hydraul. Eng., 124(3),
288-300.
Aly, A. M., and Dougherty, E. (2021). Bridge pier geometry effects on local scour potential: A
comparative study. Ocean Engineering, 234, 109326.
Breuer, A. (1998). Numerical and modeling influences on large eddy simulations for the flow
past a circular cylinder. International. J. Heat and Fluid Flow, 19, 512-521.
Burkow, M., and Griebel, M. (2016). A full three-dimensional numerical simulation of the
sediment transport and the scouring at a rectangular obstacle. Computers & Fluids, 125,
1-10.
Catalano, P. Wang, M., Iaccarino, G. and Moin, P. (2003). Numerical simulation of the flow
around a circular cylinder at high Reynolds numbers. Int. J. Heat and Fluid Flow, 24,
463–469.
Dargahi, B. (1987). Flow Field and local scouring around a pier. Bulletin No. 137, Hydraulic
Laboratory, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
Dargahi, B. (1989). The turbulent flow field around a circular cylinder. Experiments in
fluids, 8(1), 1-12.
Fukuoka, S., Tomita, K., Hotta, T., and Miyagawa, T. (1994). Practical numerical simulation
of local scour around a bridge pier. Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, 497, 71-79.
Hammil, L. (1999). Bridge Hydraulics. E and F Spon, London and New York.
Khosronejad, A., Kang, S., and Sotiropoulos, F. (2012). Experimental and computational
investigation of local scour around bridge piers. Advances in Water Resources, 37, 73-
85.
Kirkil, G., Constantinescu, G. and Ettema, R. (2009). Detached Eddy Simulation investigation
of turbulence at a circular pier with scour hole. J. Hydraul. Eng., 135(11): 888-901.
Kuroda, M., Tamura, T., and Suzuki, M. (2007). Applicability of LES to the turbulent wake of
a rectangular cylinder—Comparison with PIV data. Journal of Wind Engineering and
Industrial Aerodynamics, 95(9-11), 1242-1258.
Liu, J., Chen, X., and Liu, X. (2022). A test method to study scour effects on the lateral response
of rigid piles in sand under real scour conditions. Ocean Engineering, 262, 112292.
Liu, X., and García, M. H., (2008). Three-dimensional numerical model with free water surface
and mesh deformation for local sediment scour. J. of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and
Ocean Engineering. 134 (4): 203-217.
Majeed, H., Wright, N. and Sleigh, A. (2015). Large eddy simulations and analysis for bridge
scour development. E-proceedings of the 36th IAHR World Congress, Hague,
Netherlands.
Melville, B. W. (1975) Local scour at bridge sites. Rep. No. 117, Dept. of Civil Engineering,
School of Eng., Univ. of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Menter, F. R., (1993). Zonal two equation kw turbulence models for aerodynamic flows. In
23rd Fluid Dynamics, Plasmadynamics, and Lasers Conference. 2906.
Nagata, N., T. Hosoda, T. Nakato, Y. Muramoto. (2005). Three-dimensional numerical model
for flow and bed deformation around river hydraulic structures. J. Hydraul. Eng. 131(12):
1074–1087.
Olsen, N. R., and Kjellesvig, H. M. (1998). Three-dimensional numerical flow modeling for
Page 12
estimation of maximum local scour depth. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 36(4), 579-
590.
Olsen, N. R., and Melaaen, M. C. (1993). Three-dimensional calculation of scour around
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Omara, H., and Tawfik, A. (2018). Numerical study of local scour around bridge piers. In IOP
Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 151(1): 012013.
Roulund, A., Sumer, B.M., Fredsøe, J., and Michelsen, J., (2005). Numerical and experimental
investigation of flow and scour around a circular pile. J. Fluid Mech, 534: 351-401.
Salaheldin, T. M., Imran, J., and Chaudhry, M. H. (2004). Numerical modeling of three-
dimensional flow field around circular piers. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 130(2),
91-100.
Schanderl, W. and Manhart, M. (2016). Reliability of wall shear stress estimations of the flow
around a wall mounted cylinder. Computers and Fluids, 128.
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Weather Rev., 91, 99–165.
Tseng, M. H., C. Yen, and C. Song. (2000). Computation of three‐dimensional flow around
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227.
Yanmaz, A.M., and Altinbilek, H.D., (1991), Study of time-dependent local scour around
bridge piers, J. Hydr. Eng., 117(10), 1247-1268.
Yu P., and L. Zhu. (2020). Numerical simulation of local scour around bridge piers using novel
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Zaid, M., Z. Yazdanfar, H. Chowdhury, and F. Alam. (2019). A review on the methods used
to reduce the scouring effect of bridge pier. Energy Procedia, 160: 45-50.
Zhang, Q., Zhou, X. L., & Wang, J. H. (2017). Numerical investigation of local scour around
three adjacent piles with different arrangements under current. Ocean Engineering, 142,
625-638.
Zhao M., L. Cheng, and Z. Zang. (2010). Experimental and numerical investigation of local
scour around a submerged vertical circular cylinder in steady currents. Coastal
Engineering. 57: 709-721.
Zhao, W. and Huhe, A. (2006). Large-Eddy simulation of three-dimensional turbulent flow around a
circular pier. J. Hydrodynamics. 218(6):765-772.
Zhiyin, Y. (2014). Large-eddy simulation: past, present and the future. Chinese J. Aeronautic.
28(1):11-24.
Zhou, L. (2017). Numerical modelling of scour in steady flows. PhD diss., Université de Lyon.
Page 13
27 thInternational
ational Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources
Resources,, Environmental and Coastal
December 22 -24, 2022
Integrating Multiple
tiple Land Use and Asse
Assessment of Evapotranspiration for
Sustainable Management of Land and Water Resources in Upper Yamuna
Basin
Prakhar Sharma1, P. K. Mishra2 and Anupma Sharma3
1. Junior Research Feellow, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667,
247667,
Uttarakhand, India
India; email: prakharsharma8643@gmail.com m
2. Scientist D, National
ational Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667,
247667, Uttarakhand, India;
India
email: erprabhash@gmail.com
3. Scientist G, National
ational Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee-247667,
247667, Uttarakhand, India;
India
email: asharma.nih@gmail.com
Abstract
In the Upper Yamuna Basin (UYB)(UYB),, population growth and unsustainable practices such as
over-exploitation
exploitation of water for agricultural purposes and deforestation, are some of the major
concerns. As a result, sustainable land and water resource
resources management is critical. Water
Accounting Plus (WA+) is a systematic assessment of the current state and trends in water
supply, demand, accessibility, and use in specific domains that can assist in meeting this goal.
WA+ utilizes open access satellite datasets in conjunction with various hydrological model
outputss to develop the water accounts.
accounts.In
In this study, spatially distributed satellite data from a
variety of sources are integrated into a Water Accounting Based Land Use (WALU) map to
arrive at 80 global classes. Usually, MODIS (MOD-12) 12) LULC data (Spatial Resolution –
500m) is a major input for WALU generation. However, in th the present study for Upper
Yamuna Basin, the WALU has been generated using NRSC RSC LULC (Spatial Resolution -
250m), an Indian product. The integrated WALU is further classified into four categories as -
(i) Protected
ted Land Use (PLU), (ii) Modified Land Use (MLU), (iii) Utilized Land Use (ULU)
and (iv) Managed water Use (MWU) for better Land and Water management. For the UYB,
the percentage of land under PLU is 4%, MLU is 8%, ULU is 48% and MWU is 40%.
Further, with the use of satellite inputs, evapotranspiration (ET) was categorised as beneficial
and non-beneficial for managing water resources. ET classification was performed for each
water year (May to June) using data from the 19 19-year
year period 2001 to 2019. The beneficial
component of total ET for the year 2010-2011 was 36.26%.. By better understanding how
different land use plans affect how much water is utilised, we may be able to use these
insights to set land and water usage policies.
Keywords: Sustainability, Water Accounting, Land Use,

Us Water Resources Management,
Management
Evapotranspiration
1. Introduction
Precipitation, surface water, groundwater, etc. make up a basin's water resources. A basin's
land use is significantly altered by human activity. Particularly, changes in land use and land
management have an impact on the hydrology that governs the availab availability
ility of water for
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
human and environmental needs(Wheater

(Wheater and Evans, 2009).As
2009).As a result, land use changes and
cultivation techniques can control and regulate a basin's water resources (Karimi et al. 2013).
Typically, water management practises are focused on controlling water resources rather than
land use (Karimi, 2014).
Water and land use management are required to address the growing water scarcity.Water
scarcity.
Accounting Plus (WA+) is a systematic assessment of the current state and trends in water
supply, demand, accessibility, and use in specific domains that will assist us in meeting this
goal (FAO, 2012). The WA+, a python based framework is being developed
developed by IHE
IHE-Delft in
partnership with IWMI, FAO, and the World Water Assessment Program (WWAP). WA+
utilizes open access satellite datasets in conjunction with various hydrological model outputs
to develop the water accounts.
Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of water balance; consequently,

understanding ET management, the impact of land use on ET, and the alternatives for
lowering the negative consequences of water depletion while enhancing the benefits are all
critical for better water resource
ource management.
Multiple satellite-based
based datasets are combined in this study to produce a more accurate Water
Accounting-based
based Land Use (WALU) for better land and water resource management in the
Upper Yamuna Basin.The The WA+ framework manages a basin's land and water resources by
utilising spatially distributed satellite data. The WA+ framework is utilised in this study to
analyse and classify ET for water management in the Upper Yamuna Basin (UYB).
2.1 Study Area
The study area extends

nds between the latitudes 76° 50' 27.27"E and 78° 37' 34.84
34.84" E, and the
longitudes 28° 20' 14.40" N and 31° 23' 26.16"N. The Upper Yamuna Basin encompasses the
whole Yamuna River basin, from its headwaters in Uttarkashi to the confluence of the
Hindonn and Yamuna just outside Delhi. The topographic elevation of UYB delineates an area
of approximately 24,995 km2. Figure 1 depicts districts from various states viz., Uttarakhand,
Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh,
adesh, Haryana, and Delhi - UT, falling in the selected study area.
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 1:: Study Area in Upper Yamuna Basin.
2.2 Data Source
The WALU is created by combining spatially distributed satellite data from various sources.
Satellite data from eight different sources were used and integrated to develop WALU for the
study for example, the maps of o IWMI irrigated land map, Population denssity map and
Globcover map are shown in Figgures 2, 3 and 4 respectively. Table 1 displays the input data
in detail.
Table 1: The satellite data inputs used in generation of WALU.

S.No. Data Data Type Resolution (m)
1 Land Use Land Cover NRSC Raster 250
2 Globcover(Figure
Globcover 4) Raster 300
3 IWMI Irrigated land(Figure
land 2) Raster 250
4 MIRCA Rainfed
R Raster 10000
5 MIRCA Irrigated
I Raster 10000
6 MODIS Land Use Raster 500
7 Population Density(Figure
Density 3) Raster 1000
8 Global Surface water Raster 90
9 World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) Vector
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 2: IWMI crop map Figure 3: Population density map
Figure 4:
4 Globcover land use map
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
The inputs, their temporal resolution, time series and sources that are utilized in the WA+
framework to generate the evapotranspir
evapotranspiration sheet are shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Inputs
nputs used for generation of evapotranspiration sheet
Temporal
S. No. Data Time series Source
Resolution
Evapotranspiration Simplified Surface Energy Balance
1 Monthly 2001 - 2019
(ET) (SSEBop)
Monthly/ The Tropical Rainfall Measuring
2 Precipitation (P) 2001 - 2019
Daily Mission (TRMM)
LAI (Leaf Area
3 8-Daily 2001 - 2019 MODIS MOD15
Index)
GPP (Gross Moderate Resolution Imaging
4 Primary 8-Daily 2001 - 2019 Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
Production) (MOD17)
Moderate Resolution Imaging
NPP (Net Primary
5 Yearly 2001 - 2019 Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
Production)
(MOD17)
Number of Rainy
6 Monthly 2001 - 2019 Calculated from Precipitation
Days (n)
Net Dry Matter 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑁𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝐺𝑃𝑃
7 Monthly 2001 - 2019 𝑁𝐷𝑀 =
(NDM) 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝐺𝑃𝑃
2.3 Methodology
WA+ utilizes open access satellite datasets in conjunction with various hydrological model
outputs to develop the water accounts.
Land use and land cover (LULC) influence a basin's water balance as well as the potential
benefits to society and the environment. As a result, the spatial information on LULC is
critical information required by WA+. LU describes the use of land (for example, pastures),
while LC refers to the physical state of the associated land area (e.g. gra grass).
ss). There are
numerous global and regional land cover databases based on satellite data produced using
various algorithms (e.g. Bartholome and Belward, 2005; Bontemps et al., 2010; Friedl et al.,
2010).). These satellite products primarily give LC data, how
however
ever information on LU is sparse.
The LULC map of the UYB in this study was generated using both MODIS and NRSC data.
The LULC map is available from NRSC at a scale of 1:250000. This LULC mapping is
carried out utilising IRS (Indian Remote Sensing) multi
multi-temporal
temporal AWiFS (Advanced Wide
Field Sensor) datasets. RiSAT (Radar Imaging Satellite) data was used to supplement
supplemen the
cloud-covered and quality-affected
affected AWiFS data.
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
The above- mentioned satellite-based

based datasets are used as inputs in the python-based
python WA+
framework and are incorporated into Water Accounting based Land Use(WALU)
Use(WALU).Usually,
only MODIS land use, which has a resolution of 500 m, is used as one of the inputs for
developing the WALU. However, in the present study, in addition to MODIS land use, NRSC
land use (with resolution 250 m) is also integrated in the development of WALU.
2.3.1. Water Accounting based Land Use (WALU)
The integrated WALU has 80 LULC classes at global scale. These 80 classes are further
classified into four categories for better water and land management
managemen as –
(i) Protected Land Use (PLU): These are the conserved or protected natural reserves
and biospheres where any human intervention is not permitted.
(ii) Utilized Land Use (ULU): These land use generally represent the land uses which
use the natural resource
resourcess to a minor extent such as forests, savannahs etc.
(iii) Modified Land Use (MLU): This term refers to the land in which the natural
resources are better utilsed by modifying the land use only e.g. the rainfed areas.
(iv) Managed water Use (MWU): In this land use class,

class, both the land use as well the
water flow is modified e.g. The irrigated crop areas.
These classes have been formulated based on the fact that resources exploitation is done
either by changing the land use or water flow in a basin. For example, in the MLU (Rainfed
area), only land use is modified rather than the flow. But, in the case of MWU both the land
use and flow are significantly modified through interventions.
2.3.2 Separation of Evaporation, Transpiration and Interception
Using the spatially distributed input data and WALU, the total ET is separated into
evaporation (E), transpiration (T) and interception (I). The methodolog
methodologyy used to separate the
ET into E, T and I is shown in Figure
igure 5.
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
Spatially Distributed
Satellite data and WALU
I = LAI * (1 - (1 + (P/n) * (1 - exp(-0.5 *

LAI)) * (1/LAI)) ^^-1) * n
T = minimum((NDM * NDMmax),
(NDM) * 0.95)) * (ET - I)
E = ET - T - I
Separation of ET into beneficial and non-

non
beneficial ET based on estimated E, T, I,
landuse classes and empirical relations.
Generation of
Evapotranspiration
Sheet
Figure 5: The flowchart of methodology used for generation of evapotranspiration sheet.
Figure 6 shows the WALU generated by using only the MOD

MODIS IS LULC map as a major input.
The prepared WALU has only 24 land use classes out of the 80 global classes.
Figure 6: WALU map of UYB developed using only MODIS LULC map
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 7: WALU map of UYB integrated using NRSC and MODIS maps
Figure 7 shows that the integrated MODIS and NRSC WALU has 30 land use classes out of
80 global land use classes, compared to the MODIS WALU's 24 LU classes. Figures 6 and 7
show that the land use in the top half of the UYB is primarily savannah, woodlands, and
protected
otected areas, but in the lower section of the UYB, irrigated crops constitute the dominating
land use. However, the NRSC-MODIS
MODIS integrated map contains more features since there are
more land use classes (30 classes) than the MODIS
MODIS WALU, which includes fewer land use
classes (24 classes).
The MODIS – NRSC integrated WALU is classified into 4 major land use management
classes which is shown in Figure 8.
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 8: Major management classes for the integrated WALU
As illustrated in Figure 8, the WALU is organised into four key land use management
classifications. It shows the proportion of UYB that falls into each of the four categories.
ca The
analysis reveals that Utilised Land Use accounts for 48% 48% of UYB, Managed Water Use
accounts for 40% of UYB, Modified Land Use accounts for 8% of UYB, and Protected Land
Use
se accounts for just 4% of UYB.
3.1 Evaporation Sheet
The evapotranspiration sheet calculates the water consumption for the various Land Use U
classes on the WALU map. The evapotranspiration sheet is also used to link water usage to
benefits, with ET classified as Beneficial ET or Non Beneficial ET. The definitions of
"beneficial" and "non-beneficial"
beneficial" can vary in accordance with the user's intended purpose and
may be adjusted to reflect the user's local value judgments.. With the exception of floating
crops, wastelands, and weeds, all transpiration is regarded beneficial, whereas all interception
and evaporation are considered non
non-beneficial,, with the exception of evaporation from water
bodies and industry (Karimi et. al. 2013).
ET classification was performed for each water year (May to June) using data for
f the 19year
period i.e. 2001 to 2019. The
he beneficial component
co of total ET for a typical year 2010-2011
is found to be 36.26%.The computed ET sheet for the period June 2010 – May 2011 is shown
in Figure 9.
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 9: Evapotranspiration sheet for wet year (2010-2011)

(2010
4. Conclusions
Water resource management is becoming increasingly critical as a result of rising water stress
and depleting water resources. WA+ is an analytical framework for enhanced water resource
management that combines watershed processes with land use. In this research, arch, spatially
distributed satellite data from various sources are integrated to a Water Accounting Based
Land Use (WALU) map of Upper Yamuna Basin (UYB) to produce 80 worldwide classes.
For improved Land and Water management, the integrated WALU with 80 LULC classes is
further divided into four categories: (i) Protected Land Use (PLU), (ii) Modified Land Use
(MLU), (iii) Utilized Land Use (ULU), and (iv) Managed Water Use (MWU).
The satellite-based
based datasets are utilised as inputs in the python-based
python WA+ framework and
are incorporated into Water Accounting based Land Use (WALU) first with only the MODIS
LULC map and then with both the NRSC and the MODIS LULC map. In the integrated
MODIS and NRSC WALU has 30 land use classes out of 80 global land use classes, classes
compared to the MODIS WALU's 24 LU classes. classes It was observed that in both WALUs, the
land use in the upper region of the UYB is primarily savannah, woodlands, and protected
areas, whereas the land use in the bottom section of the UYB is primarily irrigated crops
(particularly irrigated crops).However,
However, the NRSC-MODIS
NRSC integrated map has more features
than the MODIS WALU since it has more land use classes (30 classes) than the MODIS
WALU, which has fewer land use classes (24 classes).
classes).The
The WALU for the UYB and its
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27 thInternational
December 22 -24, 2022
classification into 4 management classes is very useful in developing water accounting

ccounting for the
basin.
The WA+ methodology is further used in the study to assess and classify the ET in the Upper
Yamuna Basin. The WA+ framework divides ET into three categories: evaporation,
transpiration, and interception. Additionally, ET is classed as beneficial and non-beneficial
non
ET.
ET classification was performed for each water

water year (May to June) using data for
f the 19year
period from 2001 to 2019. For or a typical year 2010-2011, the non-beneficial
beneficial components
outweighed the beneficial components. This implies that a considerable amount of water in
the UYB contributes to the non- beneficial component. These findings can help us understand
the impacts of various land use plans on water usage, which can be useful in developing land
and water use policies.
References
Bartholomé, E. and Belward, A.S. (2005) GLC2000: A Ne Neww Approach to Global Land Cover
Mapping from Earth Observation Data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26, 1959 1959-
1977.https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160412331291297
https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160412331291297
Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., Van Bogaert, E., Kalogirou, V. and Arino, O., 2010. GlobCover 2009
- Products Description and
nd Validation Report Available
at:http://due.esrin.esa.int/files/GLOBCOVER2
http://due.esrin.esa.int/files/GLOBCOVER2009_Validation_Report_2.2.pdf
FAO (2012). Coping with water scarcity; an action framework for agriculture and food security, FAO
water reports 38, FAO, Rome.
Friedl, M. A., Sulla-Menashe,
Menashe, D., Tan, B., Schneider, A., Ramankutty, N., Sibley, A., and
Huang, X., 2010. MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and
characterization of new datasets, Remote Sens. Environ. 114, pp. 168 168–182.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.016
Karimi, P. (2014). Water accounting plus for water resources reporting and river basin planning.
planning
Karimi, P., Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., and Molden, D. (2013): Water Accounting Plus (WA+) – a water
accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements. Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 17, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2459-2013
Wheater, H., & Evans, E. (2009). Land use, water management and future flood risk. Land Use
Policy, 26, S251–S264. https://doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.08.019
Page 11
Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Land Cover Change on Tapi
River Basin, India
Dharavath B1, Mirajkar A.B2
1
Research scholar, Civil Engineering Department, VNIT Nagpur-440010, Email:
dharavath.balaji93@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, VNIT Nagpur-440010, Email:
ashmirajkar@gmail.com
Abstract
The discharge pattern of a river basin could be changed with different factors like change of
LULC, climate change, diversion of water through channels, artificial water storage structures
in river. This paper aim is to see the impact of climate change and decadal LULC changes on
water resources of the Tapi river basin using SWAT model for 30 years (1980-2011). Tapi
river basin is receiving large amount of rainfall during monsoon period (June-September),
however, the spatial variation of rainfall is irregular ranging over the basin, and this irregular
distribution is due to the topographic and geographical properties. The model executed the
runoff variability is high at the sub-basin level than at the basin level, because the variation of
climate change and LULC changes are more at sub-basin level. In Tapi River, apart from upper
reach the basin is lacking the streamflow and this is happened due to the anthropogenic
activities involved in the basin like agriculture pattern change, forest cover decreasing,
urbanization, dam construction and etc. It was observed that Maximum amount of rainfall is
occurring during the monsoon period only and in rest of the season the basin is dry and facing
water scarcity in the upper Tapi river basin with areas as compared to other two sub basins,
because the flow is flowing towards Western Ghats and predicted flows was relatively low for
Girna, moderate for Yerli and high for Ghala and Burhanpur sub-catchment.
Key words: LULC, Climate Change, SWAT, River Basin, Spatial Variability.
1. Introduction
As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by the end of the 21 st century
the mean average temperature will increase by 4o. If this could be happened by 21st century it
will have catastrophic effects on availability of water, on living organisms and etc. According
to the (UNSDG) United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, for human being survival
clear water and sanitization are more important, if it’s not present, it will have great impact on
food security, livelihood of the people and the human health. In order to sustain in the current
environmental scenario the availability of water should be clear from pollution for human
beings and also the availability of water should meet the demands of different water users. The
water resources for availability water are surface or groundwater, if the climate change exhibits
erratic nature it will exert significant influences water resources and also on hydrologic cycle
there it may increase or decrease the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events like
drought and flood which ultimately shows the effects on availability of fresh water and on its
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management. Due to climate change fresh water system is going to be become pollutant where
the quality and quantity of water changes because of sediment deposits, and also changes the
streamflow pattern. From the ancient days to current generation the population growth has been
increased drastically, living standards of the people has been changed, agricultural activities
and industrial development has increased the water stress level over the world especially in
arid and semi-arid regions, and this water stress level increase even in future. In order to meet
the water demands for different stakeholders, for water management department it’s a bottle
neck problem because of the constant available water resources. Not only the climate change
exhibiting the effects on water resources but also the (LULC) Land Use Land Cover effecting
the water resources over the globe. Now a days, Land Use activities are increasing more due
to deforestation used for agriculture activities purpose, increasing the urban areas where the
surface runoff increasing due to the impervious surface area will increase.
The water is majorly used for agriculture, domestic, industrial and other stakeholders. These
water dependents are depending on the streamflow of a river basin for a region. Streamflow
will give the idea about the quantity of water available for different seasons. So assessment of
streamflow is the major part for any region in order to estimate the quantum of water available
for different region. In hydrologic cycle streamflow is the major constitutes and its variability
assessment at basin level will give more impact due to climate change (CC) and Land Use Land
Cover Change (LULCC). The major reason for changing the streamflow pattern are due to non-
stationary behavior of climatic variables like precipitation, temperature, evaporation,
evapotranspiration and wind speed on the earth. Many of the research work has been done at
region and basin level scale but basin level results would have given good results in order to
do better analysis on this. The major reasons have been identified for the change of streamflow
pattern are population growth, atmospheric circulation, land use land cover change,
urbanization, deforestation, global warming, increasing the withdrawal water from the rivers
and manmade constructions across the rivers.
The qualitative analysis i.e. spatio-temporal will give clear idea about the behavior of the
climatic variables. The precipitous or sharp changes in the climatic variable will be due to the
local and region scale parameters. So, these changes may be gradual or steep or complex in
nature and cause changes the mean, median and variance of the time series data like
precipitation, temperature and streamflow patterns.
From the different analysis it was assessed that the scarcity of water over the globe has been
found 288 basins and world population facing the water shortage issue with <110m3/sec (PCD)
and water shortage was 10% in 1965 and in 38% in 2010. According to CWC estimated per
capita water demand availability as 1550 m3/year in 2011. Further, due to climate change and
land use land cover will induce the water shortage in future and it may increase exponentially,
if proper management not done. Thus, it is essential to estimate the effects of climate change
and anthropogenic on water resources for different stakeholders and food security and for
sustainability of ecosystem.
For Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh Agriculture, Domestic and Industrial water is
supplied from Tapi River only. Around 60% - 70% people of these states are depending on
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Tapi River for their basic water and food necessities. Many of the studies had been carried on
Tapi river basin related to seasonal streamflow analysis, peak flow analysis with respect to the
trends of it.
In further studies, it’s identified that the Tapi River basin is experiencing hydro climatic
disturbances on eco-system with sever detrimental nature. So, in the current study such regions
are assessed to detect, attribute, quantify and simplify of streamflow changes for climatic
variables like precipitation and temperature and for land use land cover changes sensitive of
the Tapi River basin.
2.1 Study area: Tapi River Basin
Godavari, Krishna, Cauvery and Narmada are the Indian rivers, along with this Tapi River is
also a major river in India and second largest river which flows/drains in western part of Indian
Peninsular. Before draining into the Arabian Sea, it flows through Maharashtra, Gujarat and
Madhya Pradesh and Tapi River is the lifeline for these states for their basic and food
necessities. The length of the river is about 724kms and drainage area/catchment area is about
65500kms. The longitude and latitudes of the Tapi River basin are 72o33’ to 78o18’E and 20o9’
to 21o50’N respectively.
Figure 1Index Map of the study area Tapi River Basin
The Tapi river basin has many major and minor tributaries namely Purna River, Girna River,
Gomai, Panzara, Pedhi and Arna. Purna River is the primary tributary of the Tapi river basin
and flows from uppar part of the Tapi River and maximum length of Purna River is in the
Maharashtra i.e. through Akola, Amravati and Bhuldana districts and Madhya Pradesh Betul
district. Purna river has perineal flow among all tributaries. Again Tapi River basin is divided
into three sub-basins as Upper Tapi Basin, Middle Tapi Basin and Lower Tapi Basin.
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Tapi river basin is further classified based on climatic condition into three categories like
Tropical wet 17.6%, Tropical dry 50.1% and hot summer 38% respectively. Observing these
the Tapi River is facing issue with the water shortage for agriculture, domestic and for other
needs.
Figure 2shows the three parts of the Tapi River basin Lower Tapi Basin a), Middle Tapi River (b) and Upper Tapi Basin (c)
respectively
2.2 Model used
2.2.1 SWAT
The study employed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed, process-based,
river basin model that operates on a daily time step to model the major hydrological processes
such as precipitation, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil and root zone infiltration, and
base flow. Based on the topographical information about the watershed, SWAT models the
watershed as an accumulation of a number of sub-watersheds or sub-basins each of which
consists of a number of Hydrologic Response Units (HRU). An HRU is a unit of area with
homogeneous land use, management, topographical, and soil characteristics without reference
to their actual spatial position within each sub-catchment. While water balance is the driving
force behind all the processes in SWAT, simulation of watershed hydrology is separated into
the land phase, which controls the amount of water, sediment, and nutrient loadings to the main
channel in each sub basin, and the routing phase, which accounts for the movement of water
and sediments through the channel network of the watershed to the outlet.
The study applied QSWAT, a Quantum GIS interface for SWAT for modeling the hydrological
water balance of the Tapi River basins & sub-basins. QSWAT incorporates the effects of
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surface runoff, groundwater flow, evapotranspiration, weather, crop growth, land and
agricultural management practices to assess the hydrological behavior of the watershed.
2.2.2 Data collection and data used for SWAT set up
SWAT requires data related to topography, land use, soil, weather, and stream discharge data
as input in order to assess the water balance of the basin. Daily climatic data precipitation and
temperature are collected from IMD (Indian Meteorological Department), under the Tapi
division like Pune, Nasik, Surat and Gandhi Nagar. The LULC changes data over the period
from 1980-2011 given in table below. Soil file downloaded from FAO and the DEM from earth
explorer.
2.3 Methodology
Figure 3Methodology flow chart
From the LULC classification, in three sub-basins or in sub-catchments forest area was
decreased where deforestation was done, fallow land also decreased and water bodies
decreased, whereas agriculture area was increased and build up area also increased over the
period of 1980 to 2011. Over the three decadal LULC has been changed in large amounts.
Considering some of the sub-basins and their LULC changes, in Burhanpur forest area,
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agriculture area, fallow land, built up area and water bodies’ areas has changed as 72% - 60%,
10% to 25%, 16% to 9%, 0.5% to 2% and 1.2% to 1.8% over the period of 1980, 1990, 2000
and 2011 respectively. Similarly, in Purna River basin forest area, agriculture area, fallow land,
built up area and water bodies’ areas has changed as 22% to 15%, 21% to 44.5%, 50% to
32.5%, 1% to 3.8% and 1.5% to 2.6% respectively, in Girna basin forest area, agriculture area,
fallow land, built up area and water bodies’ areas has changed as 24% to 16.5%, 66.8% to 76%,
5% to 4% and 0.5% to 2.5% respectively, in Lower Tapi Basin, forest area, agriculture area,
fallow land, built up area and water bodies’ areas has changed as 20.4% to 11.5%, 50.8% to
69.4%, 20.9% to 13.5%, 0.46% to 3.9% and 1.5% to 2.8% respectively, in Middle Tapi basin
forest area, agriculture area, fallow land, built up area and water bodies’ areas has changed as
24.5% to 17%, 32.5% to 54.5%, 38.5% to 17.8% and 0.8% to 8.4% respectively.
From the analysis forest area has been decreased in large amount, agriculture area and built up
area has been increased drastically which are majorly depends on water resources but the
increasing in the water bodies areas are very less which is negligible quantity. Maximum
amount of rainfall is occurring during monsoon period i.e. June to August and in rest of the
months the river is empty and sometime water dependents has to depend on groundwater
resources. Uppar Tapi River basin have the adequate amount of water and it’s a perineal river
but other two basins are dry after the rainy season. If proper management practices are done
there is even problem in financial also. The water stress levels at different basins have been
shown below.
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Figure 4 Monthly flows at different basins and Dams
Due to non-availability of data sources only few points have been considered for the analysis.
Figure 5Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Stress Levels at different places for baseline (1980) period
From the figure (a) baseline scenario (1980), the water scarcity is more at the end of the Middle
Tapi River basin and in some part of the Upper Tapi River basin, and the scarcity of water to
the current period that is in 2011 has been increased in Upper Tapi River basin and it is absolute
nature shown in figure (b) present scenario (2011)
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Figure 6 Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Stress Levels at different places for present (2011) period
4. Conclusions
After gone through some analysis some of the following conclusion has made:
(i) Maximum amount of rainfall is occurring during the monsoon period only and in rest of
the season the basin is dry and facing water scarcity in the upper Tapi river basin with
areas as compared to other two sub basins, because the flow is flowing towards Western
Ghats.
(ii) It has been observed that predicted flows was relatively low for Girna, moderate for Yerli
and high for Ghala and Burhanpur sub-catchment.
References
Aragaw, H. M., Goel, M. K., & Mishra, S. K. (2021). Hydrological responses to human-induced land
use/land cover changes in the Gidabo River basin, Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66(4),
640–655. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1890328
Astuti, I. S., Sahoo, K., Milewski, A., & Mishra, D. R. (2019). Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC)
Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed. Water Resources
Management, 33(12), 4087–4103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02320-w
Bulti, D. T., & Abebe, B. G. (2020). Analyzing the impacts of urbanization on runoff characteristics in
Adama city, Ethiopia. SN Applied Sciences, 2(7), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-
2961-3
Hengade, N., & Eldho, T. I. (2016). Assessment of LULC and climate change on the hydrology of ashti
catchment, India using VIC model. Journal of Earth System Science, 125(8), 1623–1634.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0753-3
Kiprotich, P., Wei, X., Zhang, Z., Ngigi, T., Qiu, F., & Wang, L. (2021). Assessing the impact of land
use and climate change on surface runoff response using gridded observations and swat+.
Hydrology, 8(1), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010048
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Nair, S. C., & Mirajkar, A. (2021a). Land use-land cover anomalies and groundwater pattern
with climate change for Western Vidarbha: a case study. Arabian Journal of Geosciences,
14(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06823-y
Nair, S. C., & Mirajkar, A. (2022a). Drought vulnerability assessment across Vidarbha region,
Maharashtra, India. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 15(4), 1–9.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-09623-0
Sinha, R. K., & Eldho, T. I. (2018). Effects of historical and projected land use/cover change
on runoff and sediment yield in the Netravati river basin, Western Ghats, India.
Environmental Earth Sciences, 77(3), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7317-6
Sinha, R. K., Eldho, T. I., & Subimal, G. (2020). Assessing the impacts of land use/land cover
and climate change on surface runoff of a humid tropical river basin in Western Ghats,
India. International Journal of River Basin Management, 0(0), 1–38.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2020.1809434
Saraf, V. R., & Regulwar, D. G. (2016). Assessment of Climate Change for Precipitation and
Temperature Using Statistical Downscaling Methods in Upper Godavari River Basin,
India. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 08(01), 31–45.
https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2016.81004
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December 22 -24, 2022
Numerical studies on oblique weirs

Sadan P. P.1, Ghare A. D.2, Vasudeo A. D.3, Kapoor A.4, Nair P. S.5
1
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur
440010, INDIA
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur 440010,
INDIA
3
INDIA
4
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, G H Raisoni Institute of Engineering and Technology,
Nagpur 440028, INDIA
5
440010, INDIA
Email: prasadsadan97@gmail.com
Abstract
One of the most practical solutions for reducing the upstream head to pass higher discharge
with constant channel width is to provide an oblique weir. The present study investigates the
effects of the placement of a weir obliquely to the flow direction, using computational fluid
dynamics (CFD) simulations. A rectangular weir with four different oblique angles of 90°,
125°, 135°, and 150° to the flow direction (anticlockwise) is used. The two-equation RNG
turbulent model is employed to integrate the effects of turbulence. Based on simulations, the
discharge coefficients of oblique weirs are determined, and the efficiency of oblique weirs in
respect of linear weir is also presented. The obtained values of discharge coefficients from
the simulations are compared to the formulae available in the literature. Results indicate that
for the same value of head over the crest, discharge is increasing with the higher values of
oblique angle due to increases in the effective length of the weir. It is interpreted that
increasing the effective length of the weir by aligning it obliquely at some angle to the flow
direction can be an effective practice to enhance the conveyance capacity of the weir without
foregoing the freeboard limit at upstream.
Keywords: Oblique weir, CFD, RNG, Discharge coefficients.
1. Introduction
A large amount of water is used in numerous agricultural processes as part of production

activities. An estimated 70% of freshwater withdrawals worldwide are used for agriculture
alone. Water conservation has become crucial for farms due to some regions of the world
experiencing severe droughts, dwindling reservoirs, and freshwater shortages. An essential
part of any process' effective management is determining how much water is utilized during
it. Typically, open channels that enable flow measurements are used to measure this quantity,
specifically in volume per unit time. Continuous flow measurements in open channels are
often made using hydraulic structures that create a certain head-discharge relationship. Weirs
and control flumes are the two main types of classification for these hydraulic structures.
Weirs can broadly be categorized into three types based on the shape of opening, viz.,
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December 22 -24, 2022
rectangular weir, triangular weir, trapezoidal weir. These weirs are generally aligned normal
to the direction of flow. But a linear weir, normal to flow direction, might not be able to pass
the necessary flood discharge with the restricted freeboard. Widening the canal to allow high
discharges is impractical for most applications and hence increasing effective length of weir
is one of the alternative to enhance discharge capacity without raising the total upstream
head. Weirs classified based on their shape i.e., circular, parabolic, labyrinth, etc., facilitate
the increased effective length of the weir within limited channel width. An oblique weir,
which is placed such that the weir axis is inclined to the channel axis, also offers more
effective length of weir for passage of flow.
The following mathematical statement is used to describe the flow over a sharp-crested weir
(Q) in a channel under free flow conditions.
3
2
Q= 𝐶 √2𝑔𝐿𝐻 2 (1)
3 𝑑
where, 𝐶𝑑 = coefficient of discharge depending upon characteristics of flow and dimensions

of the channel and the weir, g = acceleration due to gravity, L = effective length of crest, H =
head over the crest.
Eq. (1) without 𝐶𝑑 is derived with assumption of no pressure and parallel streamlines at the
weir crest. Also, surface tension, viscosity, and the approach velocity are neglected. The
discharge coefficient (𝐶𝑑 ) is essential for experimental mesurements and is empirically
determined. The various discharge-coefficient formulae with the limitation on the head for
sharp crested weir are given by Bazin (1886), SSAE (1926), Rehbock I and Rehbock II
(1920), Kindsvater and Carter (1957).
Rehbock (1929), Rouse (1936), and Kindsvater and Carter (1957) conducted experiments to
study the behavior of sharp-crested rectangular normal weirs. These studies attempted to
determine the significant parameters that affected the estimation of coefficient of discharge
and presented different equations for measuring discharges passing over the weir. The
presented equations are in terms of the ratio of head over the crest to height of weir. For low
values of the ratio of head over crest to crest width of normal rectangular weir, Johnson
(2000) and Daneshfaraz (2021) found that the crest width can be considered one of the
crucial parameter affecting the flow over weir equation.
The conveyance capacity of weir and its performance can be enhanced by increasing the
length of crest or by improving the discharge coefficient (𝐶𝑑 ) or by using either alternatives
simultaneously. Long crested weirs like Oblique weirs, Curved weirs, Labyrinth weirs, etc.,
offer increased crest lengths for passing over the discharges and ultimately increase the
conveyance capacity of the weir. With constrained channel width, these types of weirs solve
the issue of upstream submergence. Aichel (1953) was one of the first researchers who
performed studies on oblique weirs and presented a correlation for the discharges of linear
weirs and weirs placed at different angles. Later, De Vries (1959) studied the effect placing a
sharp crested weir at different angles to flow direction on the discharge capacity. Tullis
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(1995) studied labyrinth weirs having a trapezoidal plan and recommended a design
procedure for labyrinth weirs.
Borghei (2003) performed experiments on oblique sharp-crested weirs to determine the

discharge coefficient (𝐶𝑑 ). A linear relationships between 𝐶𝑑 and H/P is found with H/P
ranging between 0.08 to 0.20 for oblique angles varying between 26° to 61°.The coefficient
of discharge (𝐶𝑑 ) for free flow over a rectangular sharp-crested weir is,
𝐵 𝐵 𝐻
𝐶𝑑 = (0.701 − 0.121 𝐿 ) + (2.229 𝐿 − 1.663) 𝑃 (2)
where, B = clear width of the channel, L = effective crest length of weir, H = head over the
crest, and P = weir height.
Later, Borghei (2006) extended his prior analysis by employing incomplete self-similarity
and developed the design charts. These charts can be used to design an oblique sharp-crested
rectangular weir and, to predict discharge for both free flow and submerged flow. Coefficient
of discharge (𝐶𝑑𝑠 ) for submerged flow as suggested by Borghei (2006) is,
𝐿 𝐿 𝐻 3 2
𝐶𝑑𝑠 = [(0.008 𝐵 + 0.985) + (0.161 𝐵 − 0.479) ( 𝐻𝑑 ) ] (3)
where, 𝐻𝑑 = downstream head, and L, B, H same meaning as mentioned in (2).

Chilmeran (2005) enhanced the performance of oblique weirs with the use of weir with semi-
circular crests and proposed a model for estimating the coefficient of discharge. The head
over crest, radius of crest and oblique angle of weir are important parameters Chilmeran
(2005) incorporated to enhance the performance the weir. Tingey (2011) tested different weir
models with three different crest shapes viz., sharp, half-round, and quarter-round crested
weirs having multiple oblique angles and concluded that weir models with half round crest
offer high conveyance capacity and shows an improved performance than weir models with
other crest shapes. Bachaya (2019) presented a study on the effectiveness of linear and
oblique weirs having semi-circular crest with flood embankments and found the decrease in
the coefficient of discharge as the crest radius and height of weir increases. Bahzad (2020)
performed experiments on circular crested oblique weirs to increase their hydraulic
performance and reported the largest percentage increases in discharges ranged between
147.3% and 174.9%. Recently, few researchers have tried to numerically simulate the flow
over oblique weirs. Yuce (2015), Maranzoni (2021), and Noori (2022) used ANSYS, a
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software to study flow passing over an oblique weir.
In the most recent study, Sinclair (2022) re-examined the experimental studies presented by
Rajaratnam and Muralidhar (1971) on flow over a sharp-crested weir using FLOW-3D® CFD
software.
In present study, numerical simulation of free flow overpassing oblique weirs has been
presented using a CFD software, Flow-3D®. A 3D modelling is always beneficial to resolve
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the flow structure accurately and provide a high degree of detail in the analysis of the flow
dynamics, ultimately improving the understanding of the weir performance. Also, 3D
simulation models are a viable substitute for experimental studies for studying complex flow
processes like weir flows.
2.1 Computational Fluid Dynamics
In present study, flow over oblique weir is examined using computational fluid dynamics.
Flow-3D, a CFD software with the capacity to produce more precise free-surface models, is
utilized for the analysis. FLOW-3D® numerically simulates standard flow equation such as
the Navier–Stokes equations, which compraises of momentum equations and continuity
equation, to simulate incompressible fluid flow by discretizing and solving for each
computational grid. It uses finite-volume method, in which the entire control volume is
divided into smaller control volumes, called as grids. The meshing in FLOW-3D® is quite
easy as it facilitates orthogonal meshing, i.e., every grid is of a rectangular shape. Structured
rectangular grids offer an advantage to develop numerical methods with ease, accuracy, and
stability. The inputed boundary conditions and the information passed by each grid to the
adjacent grid are used by solver to examine each grid for solving various flow variables. The
vector values are solved on the cell faces and scalar quantities are solved in the cell centers.
FLOW-3D® makes use of the volume-of-fluid (VOF) technique, which offers a precise
approach for locating and tracking the free surface by means of structured meshes. FLOW-
3D® has a unique way to integrate geometry of the model. It uses Fractional Area-Volume
Obstacle Representation (FAVOR) technique which computes the volumetric ratios and area
ratios of the grids. The Generalized Minimal Residual Method (GMRES) with its accuracy,
efficiency and quick convergence can solve the pressure implicitly. The momentum
advection is approximated using upwind-differencing method. The two equation RNG
turbulent model is used to simulate the effects of turbulence in the present study.
2.2 Model Setup
To set up the hydraulic model of oblique weirs, total geometry of the channel with weir can
either be constructed within the FLOW-3D® software or can be imported as STL file
constructed using any CAD software like AutoCAD, CATIA, Solidworks, etc. Using the
appropriate facilities of AutoCAD, geometry is created in the present study. A rectangular
channel of 30 cm clear width (B), 40 cm clear depth (D), and 400 cm total length is used with
weir of 20 cm height (P) and 3.33 cm thickness (t). The effective crest length (L) of weir is
varied by placing it obliquely to the flow direction. For oblique angles (α) of 90°, 125°, 135°,
and 150° the effective crest length obtained is 30 cm, 36.6 cm, 42.42 cm, and 60 cm
respectively. The weir is placed such that center of effective crest length lies exactly at the
centerline of the channel,1.5 m from the upstream end. The thickness of weir is calculated as
𝑃
suggested by Tullis (1995), i.e., t = 6. The thickness of the channel bed and side walls is kept
5 cm. The geometry created in AutoCAD and the plan of weirs placed at different oblique
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angles is shown in figure 1 and figure 2 respectively.
Figure 1 Geometry created using AutoCAD
The arrow shows the direction of the flow

Figure 2 Plan view of channel with weir placed at different oblique angles
`
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In this study, 20 simulations of oblique weirs with four different angles, each provided with
five different discharges are studied.
Table 1 Numerical simulation models with varying discharges and oblique angles
Discharges in LPS
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
α1 (90°, 9.48) (90°, 11.91) (90°, 14.53) (90°, 17.36) (90°, 20.34)
Oblique
α2 (125°, 9.48) (125°, 11.91) (125°, 14.53) (125°, 17.36) (125°, 20.34)
angles
α3 (135°, 9.48) (135°, 11.91) (135°, 14.53) (135°, 17.36) (135°, 20.34)
α4 (150°, 9.48) (150°, 11.91) (150°, 14.53) (150°, 17.36) (150°, 20.34)
2.3 Simulation of Numerical Model
A flow chart of modelling steps for setting up a numerical model in Flow-3D® is shown in
Figure 3. Simulation finish time can be provided in Global dock widget. FLOW-3D® contains
various physics models out of which Gravity and Non-inertial Reference frame, and
Renormalized Group Model (RNG) turbulence model are selected. ‘Water at 20’ is a built-in
option available in FLOW-3D® for selecting water as simulation fluid.
Boundary
Global Physics Fluids Geometry Meshing
Conditions
Initial Mesurement
Output FAVOR Simulate
Conditions Devices
Figure 3 Flow chart for setting up numerical model in FLOW-3D®
2.3.1 Geometry and Meshing
The channel and weir model created on AutoCAD is imported in FLOW-3D® as STL file
through Geometry dock widget. Two non-conforming mesh blocks are provided, one with
coarser mesh throughout the geometry and other with finer mesh nested within coarser mesh,
around the area of weir. The total cell count for simulations varies between 4,00,000 to
5,40,000. The cell size ratio for nested block is kept 1:3. The mesh planes are added at
necessary intervals to detail geometry. The coarser mesh (blue color) and finer mesh (yellow
color) are shown in figure 4.
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Figure 4 Sideview of the geometry with coarse mesh and nested fine mesh
2.3.2 Boundary conditions and initial conditions
The ability to specify a boundary condition at different boundaries of a computational region

is an important and useful computational tool. The boundaries of both meshes are simulated
using boundary conditions in Table 2. Five different volume flow rates are provided at the
Ymin boundary for each oblique angle with fluid elevation type- Natural inlet, Subcritical flow.
At the Zmax, the pressure condition with the fluid fraction equal to zero is inputed. Figure 5
gives better visualization of these conditions.
Table 2 Boundary conditions used for the simulations
X boundary Y boundary Z boundary

Xmin Xmax Ymin Ymax Zmin Zmax
Volume Pressure
Mesh 1 Wall Wall Outflow Wall
flow rate (FF = 0)
(Coarse) (W) (W) (O) (W)
(Q) (P)
Mesh 2 Symmetry Symmetry Symmetry Symmetry Symmetry Symmetry
(Fine) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S)
Figure 5 Boundary conditions for Mesh 1 and Mesh 2

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December 22 -24, 2022
Flow-3D® facilitates the user defined initial conditions that can be provided to meet the
practical conditions. The fluid elevation throughout and a fluid region on upstream of the
weir are provided in the simulation model. The computational time required for the
simulation is optimized with the use of mentioned initial conditions.
Figure 6 Channel section with Initial conditions, History probes and Flux surfaces
2.3.3 Measurement Devices
The measurement devices provided in the present study are history probes and flux surfaces
as shown in figure 6. The history probe is a diagnostic feature for computing flow parameters
at the specified location. While Flux surfaces are baffles with 100% porosity, used for
tracking the discharge and gives information about the particle count passing through it.
Besides, every output selected in output dock widget can be analyzed in the ‘Analyze’ tab.
The results of simulation model are then analyzed to determine the coefficient of discharge
for all models of oblique weir. Variation of head over the crest with discharge for the oblique
weirs of varied oblique angle is shown in Figure 7. Figure 7 clearly indicates that for the
same value of discharge, head over the crest decreases as oblique angle increases, due to
increases in the effective length of the weir. So, it can be concluded that for the same head,
the discharge capacity of weir increases with increase in its obliquity.
The graph between 𝐶𝑑 and H/P is shown in Figure 8 for the weirs of different oblique angles.
It can be seen that the value of 𝐶𝑑 decreases with an increase in obliquity of weir. For the
normal weir i.e., α = 90°, the 𝐶𝑑 value increases with H/P satisfying the Rehbock (1929)
equation for 𝐶𝑑 . Also, obtained 𝐶𝑑 values are matching considerably with 𝐶𝑑 values
calculated using Tullis (1995) formula for normal weir. The rate of increase of 𝐶𝑑 with H/P
decreases with increase of oblique angle up to α < 135°. For α = 135°, the 𝐶𝑑 values slightly
decreased with H/P and became almost constant for α = 150°.
An efficient weir passes excess discharge for the same head and width of the channel. To
investigate the effectiveness of the oblique weir with different oblique angles, ratio of
discharges over the oblique weir (Q) and discharge over linear weir (QL), i.e., Q/QL is plotted
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
with H/P in figure 9. The efficiency of oblique weir is high for high oblique angle and shows
an increasing trend with increase of H/P. For H/P = 0.35, the weirs with oblique angle (α)
125°, 135°, and 150° are respectively 1.08, 1.13, and 1.24 times more efficient than the linear
weir i.e., α = 90°.
α=90° α=125° α=135° α=150°

0.11
0.09
H (m)
0.07
0.05
0.03
5 10 15 20 25
Q (l/s)
Figure 7 Variation of head with discharge for the weirs of different oblique angles
α=90° α=125° α=135° α=150°

0.80
0.75
0.70
Cd
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50
H/P
Figure 8 Variation of 𝐶𝑑 with H/P ratio for the weirs of different oblique angles
The values obtained for 𝐶𝑑 from the CFD simulations are compared with the 𝐶𝑑 calculated
using the formulas proposed by Tullis (1995) for linear weir and Borghei (2003) for the other
oblique angles. Table 3 shows the percentage error by which 𝐶𝑑 values obtained from the
CFD simulations are overpredicted or underpredicted. For α = 90°and 125°, 𝐶𝑑 values are
showing a good match. For α = 135°, the percentage error shows considerable results while
the error shows an increasing trend (16% to 36%) with H/P for α = 135°.
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
α=90° α=125° α=135° α=150°
1.3
1.2
1.1
Q/QL
0.9
0.8
0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55
H/P
Figure 9 Variation of Q/QL with H/P for the weirs of different oblique angles
Table 3 Comparison of the obtained 𝐶𝑑
α = 90°, B = 0.3 m, L = 0.3 m, P = 0.2 m α = 125°, B = 0.3 m, L = 0.366 m, P = 0.2 m

𝑪𝒅 𝑪𝒅
Q Head Error Q Head Error
(l/s) (m) Present Tullis (%) (l/s) (m) Present Borghei (%)
study (1995) study (2003)
9.48 0.060 0.710 0.736 (-) 3.49 9.48 0.056 0.665 0.648 (+) 2.69
11.91 0.070 0.726 0.749 (-) 3.07 11.91 0.064 0.676 0.655 (+) 3.28
14.55 0.079 0.735 0.756 (-) 2.78 14.55 0.073 0.687 0.661 (+) 3.89
17.36 0.089 0.744 0.759 (-) 1.98 17.36 0.082 0.688 0.669 (+) 2.79
20.34 0.098 0.752 0.760 (-) 1.03 20.34 0.091 0.674 0.677 (-) 0.36
α = 135°, B = 0.3 m, L = 0.424 m, P = 0.2 m α = 150°, B = 0.3 m, L = 0.6 m, P = 0.2 m

𝑪𝒅 𝑪𝒅
Q Head Error Q Head Error
(l/s) (m) Present Borghei (%) (l/s) (m) Present Borghe (%)
study (2003) study i (2003)
9.48 0.051 0.653 0.593 (+) 10.07 9.48 0.043 0.606 0.523 (+) 15.69
11.91 0.060 0.653 0.590 (+) 10.75 11.91 0.050 0.603 0.503 (+) 19.87
14.55 0.068 0.660 0.586 (+) 12.60 14.55 0.057 0.608 0.485 (+) 25.42
17.36 0.077 0.646 0.582 (+) 11.00 17.36 0.064 0.607 0.466 (+) 30.39
20.34 0.087 0.638 0.578 (+) 10.39 20.34 0.071 0.606 0.446 (+) 35.91
Signs (+) and (-) denotes overpredicted and underpredicted values respectively.
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December 22 -24, 2022
4. Conclusions
The following are the conclusions of the present study:

(i) Use of oblique weir can be an effective practice to enhance the conveyance capacity
without foregoing the freeboard limit at upstream.
(ii) The increase in the values of H/P, 𝐶𝑑 shows decreasing trend for α ≥ 135° and negligible
effect for α = 150° i.e., 𝐶𝑑 nearly equal to 0.61.
(iii)The efficiency of oblique weir when compared with linear weir, increases with increase in
oblique angle. Also, efficiency shows an increasing trend with H/P. For H/P = 0.35, the
weirs with oblique angle (α) 125°, 135°, and 150° are respectively 1.08, 1.13, and 1.24
times more efficient than the linear weir i.e., α =90°.
(iv) The comparision of 𝐶𝑑 values for α = 150° shows large difference. Hence, further
investigation with wider range of H/P is required to find the limitations.
References
Montes, S. (1998). Hydraulics of open channel flow, ASCE, Reston, Va

Rehbock, T. (1929). Hydraulic laboratory practice. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New
York, NY, 111-242.
Rouse, H. (1936). Discharge characteristics of the free overfall: Use of crest section as a control
provides easy means of measuring discharge. Civil Engineering, 6(4), 257-260.
Kindsvater, C. E., & Carter, R. W. (1957). Discharge characteristics of rectangular thin-plate
weirs. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 83(6), 1453-1.
Johnson, M. C. (2000). Discharge coefficient analysis for flat-topped and sharp-crested
weirs. Irrigation science, 19(3), 133-137.
Daneshfaraz, R., Minaei, O., Abraham, J., Dadashi, S., & Ghaderi, A. (2021). 3-D numerical
simulation of water flow over a broad-crested weir with openings. ISH Journal of Hydraulic
Engineering, 27(sup1), 88-96.
Aichel, O. G. (1953). Discharge ratio for oblique weirs. Zeitschrift des Vereins Deutscher
Ingenieure, 95(1), 26-27.
De Vries, M. (1959). Oblique weirs. Report WL. Delft Hydraulics. [In Dutch.].
Borghei, S. M., Vatannia, Z., Ghodsian, M., & Jalili, M. R. (2003, June). Oblique rectangular sharp-
crested weir. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water and Maritime
Engineering (Vol. 156, No. 2, pp. 185-191). Thomas Telford Ltd.
Borghei, S. M., Kabiri-Samani, A. R., & Nekoee, N. (2006). Oblique weir equation using incomplete
self-similarity. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 33(10), 1241-1250.
AH Chilmeran, T., & MA Noori, B. (2005). Characteristics of flow over normal and oblique weirs
with semicircular crests. Al-Rafidain Engineering Journal (AREJ), 13(1), 49-61.
Tingey, S. E. (2011). Discharge coefficients of oblique weirs. M.Sc. Thesis, Department of
Mechanical Engineering. Logan, Utah, U.S.A: Utah State University.
Bachaya, A., Hashmi, H. N., Baluch, M. A., ALI, Z., & Latif, A. (2019). Flow Characteristics Over
the Weir with Semi-Circular Crest in Normal and Oblique Plane. Technical Journal, 24(01), 1-8.
Noori, B. M. A. (2020). Hydraulic performance of circular crested oblique weirs. Ain Shams
Engineering Journal, 11(4), 875-888.
Yuce, M. I., Al-Babely, A. A., & Al-Dabbagh, M. A. (2015). Flow simulation over oblique cylindrical
weirs. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 42(6), 389-407.
Maranzoni, A., & Tomirotti, M. (2021). 3D CFD analysis of the performance of oblique and
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composite side weirs in converging channels. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 59(4), 586-604.
Noori, B. M. A., Hussein, B. S., & Aaref, N. T. (2022). Numerical simulation and experimental study
of hydraulic performance of circular crested normal weirs. Journal of Duhok University, 25(1),
49-62.
Sinclair, J. M., Venayagamoorthy, S. K., & Gates, T. K. (2022). Some Insights on Flow over Sharp-
Crested Weirs Using Computational Fluid Dynamics: Implications for Enhanced Flow
Measurement. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 148(6), 04022011.
Rajaratnam, N., & Muralidhar, D. (1971). Pressure and velocity distribution for sharp-crested
weirs. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 9(2), 241-248.
Tullis, J. P., Amanian, N., & Waldron, D. (1995). Design of labyrinth spillways. Journal of
hydraulic engineering, 121(3), 247-255.
Page 12
Linear and Non-Linear Stability Analysis of an Open Channel Flow

P. D. Jiwane1, A. D. Vasudeo2 and A. K. Singh3
1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of
Technology, Nagpur, India – 440010; Email: pratik.d.jiwane@gmail.com
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology,
Nagpur, India - 440010; Email: avasudeo@yahoo.com
3
Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Visvesvaraya National
Institute of Technology, Nagpur, India – 440010; E-mail: aksinghb@gmail.com
Abstract
Hydraulic jump is an important phenomenon in water resource engineering. Present study

involves linear and nonlinear stability analysis of hydraulic jump in an open channel flow.
Linear stability of the governing differential equations about steady state flow predicts a critical
Froude number equal to unity at which hydraulic jump occurs. This result is also confirmed
with nonlinear analysis. Further, the frequency analysis of the open channel flow equations is
carried out. Variation of the frequency is studied for the change in Froude. Effect of Manning’s
constant and bed slope is also investigated on hydraulic jump with frequency analysis.
Keywords: Froude number, Hydraulic jump, Stability of flow, St. Venant equations.
1. Introduction
In an open channel flow, it is important for hydraulic jump to occur in order to protect the
channel bed from erosion and scouring (Cassidy et al, 1998). Hydraulic jump is governed by a
system of equations which are known as St. Venant equations. These equations are basically a
set of nonlinear-coupled-hyperbolic partial differential equations. A closed form solution of
the equations may not be found under realistic conditions (Cassidy et al, 1998). Hence, it is
necessary to carry out linear stability analysis of the St. Venant equations to understand its
steady-state flow behavior.
Studies related to linear stability and frequency analysis of open channel flow have been
previously reported by various authors. Binnie and Orkney (1955) performed the experiments
to investigate different types of hydraulic jump by varying Froude numbers and they have also
validated the Belanger’s equation. Ghidaoui and Kolyshkin (1999) have also carried out the
linear stability analysis of lateral motions in compound channel. Defina and Susin (2003)
presented a theoretical criterion to predict stability of a stationary hydraulic jump in a
rectangular channel considering upward sloping channel for stable and unstable flow. Litrico
and Fromion (2004) investigated frequency analysis of St. Venant equations for open channel
at different flow conditions. They have also used a new computational method to obtain a
frequency domain model of the Saint-Venant equations around stationary regime (Litrico and
Fromion,2004). However, their studies are more focused on the controlling the hydraulic jump.
Velioglu and Tokyay (2012) studied the effect of different roughness types on the
Page 1
characteristics of hydraulic jump De Lima and Izumi (2014) have carried out a linear stability
analysis of flow in an open-channel which was partially covered with vegetation. Naraigh et al
(2014) compared the linear and nonlinear stability of three-dimensional double layer in laminar
flow. Carolo et al (2015) experimented hydraulic jumps on rough beds where the effect of
roughness was studied on the sequent depth ratio and Froude number (Fr). Hafnaoui et al.
(2016) used the numerical modelling to predict the location of the hydraulic jump using St.
Venant equations and Maccormak finite difference scheme. Chentouf and Smaoui (2018)
performed linear stability and numerical simulation in open channel hydraulic system for
unsteady flow in river. Kumar et al. (2019) investigated hydraulic jump for over rough sloping
floor by prismatic channel by experiment the different gravel sizes on the bed and different bed
slopes and compared the observed values of the sequent depth ratio with the calculated values.
Despite extensive experimental and numerical studies on hydraulic jump, there are issues
which are not reported in literature. For example, it is not known in literature how the location
of hydraulic jump is predicted theoretically. In the present analysis, we have carried out linear
and nonlinear stability analysis of St. Venant equations for channel flow to understand the
origin and location of hydraulic jump.
2. Governing Equations
The governing equations for unsteady open channel flow, which are also known as St. Venant
equations, are generally expressed as (Cassidy et al, 1998)
𝜕𝑦 𝜕𝑦 𝜕𝑉
+𝑉 +𝐷 =0 (1)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
𝜕𝑦 𝜕𝑉 𝜕𝑉
𝑔 + +𝑉 = 𝑔(𝑆0 − 𝑆𝑓 ) (2)
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥
where x is the spatial location ( m ), t is time in second (s), 𝑦 indicates the flow depth of water
(m), 𝑉 represents flow velocity (m/s) and 𝑔 is acceleration due to gravity (m/s2). Further, 𝑆0
and 𝑆𝑓 signify slope of the channel bottom and the slope of energy grade line respectively. In
addition, 𝐷 is the hydraulic depth (m).
Now assuming that the open channel is rectangular in cross section. Thus, hydraulic depth (D)
of a rectangular channel is equal to the flow depth y and 𝑆𝑓 is given following expression
𝑛2 𝑉 2
𝑆𝑓 =
𝐵𝑦 4/3 (3)
(𝐵 + 2𝑦)
where, n is manning’s roughness coefficient and B is bed width of the channel. It is worth
mentioning that Equation (1) is basically the law of mass conservation. Equation (2), on the
other hand, is derived from the law conservation of momentum (Chow, 1985). In the present
study, linear stability analysis of above system of above Equations (1-3) is carried out about
steady state flow. The results are further confirmed with nonlinear solutions of the Equations
Page 2
(1-3).
3. Linear Stability Analysis
Stability of depth-varying flows in the y-direction is considered below because the importance
of the channel bottom topography on the occurrence of shear instabilities (Reniers et al., 1997).
Steady flow is perturbed with respect to steady state values 𝑦𝑠 , 𝑉𝑠 and 𝑆𝑓 . Hence, assuming
𝑠
that 𝑉 = 𝑉𝑠 + 𝑉 ′ , 𝑦 = 𝑦𝑠 + 𝑦 ′ and 𝑆𝑓 = 𝑆𝑓 + 𝑆𝑓 ′ in view of Equations. (1-3). Where, 𝑦 ′ , 𝑉 ′
𝑠
and 𝑆𝑓 ′ are the complex amplitudes of the normal perturbations. Equations. (1-2) are modified
further as following
𝜕𝑦′ 𝜕𝑦𝑠 𝜕𝑦′ 𝜕𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑉′

+ (𝑉𝑠 + 𝑉 ′ ) ( + ) + (𝑦𝑠 + 𝑦′) ( + )=0 (4)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
𝜕𝑦𝑠 𝜕𝑦 ′ 𝜕𝑉 ′ ′
𝜕𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑉 ′
𝑔( + )+ + (𝑉𝑠 + 𝑉 ) ( + ) = 𝑔(𝑆0 − 𝑆𝑓 − 𝑆𝑓 ′) (5)
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝑠
Linearizing 𝑆𝑓 too about steady state, we obtain the equation for 𝑆𝑓 ′ as:
4
𝑛2 𝑉𝑠2 4 2𝑉 ′ 8 𝑦′ 4 𝑦′ 1
𝑆𝑓 ′ = 4
(𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 )3 (𝑦𝑠3 (1 + + − ) − 4)
𝑉𝑠 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 3 𝑦𝑠 (6)
𝑏3 𝑦𝑠3
Neglecting the time derivative terms of Equations (1-2) to enforce steady state conditions
results in
𝜕𝑦𝑠 𝜕𝑉𝑠
𝑉𝑠 + 𝑦𝑠 =0 (7)
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
𝑔 + 𝑉𝑠 = 𝑔(𝑆0 − 𝑆𝑓 ) (8)
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝑠
Inserting Equations (7-8) in Equations (4-5) to yield
𝜕𝑦′ 𝜕𝑦′ 𝜕𝑦𝑠 𝜕𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑉′

+ 𝑉𝑠 + 𝑉′ + 𝑦′ + 𝑦𝑠 =0 (9)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
𝜕𝑉 ′ 𝜕𝑦 ′ 𝜕𝑉 ′ 𝜕𝑉𝑠
+𝑔 + 𝑉𝑠 + 𝑉′ = −𝑔𝑆𝑓 ′ (10)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
Also inserting 𝑆𝑓 ′ equation in Equation (10) modifies further as
Page 3
𝜕𝑉 ′ 𝜕𝑦 ′ 𝜕𝑉 ′ 𝜕𝑉𝑠
+𝑔 + 𝑉𝑠 + 𝑉′
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
4
𝑛2 𝑉𝑠2 4 2𝑉 ′ 8 𝑦′ 4 𝑦′ 1 (11)
= −𝑔 4
(𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 )3 (𝑦𝑠3 (1 + + − ) − 4)
𝑉𝑠 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 3 𝑦𝑠
𝑏3 𝑦𝑠3
For getting the perturbed solutions of Equations (9) and (11), assuming that 𝑦 ′ = 𝐴𝑒 𝑖(𝑘𝑥+𝜔0𝑡)
and 𝑉 ′ = 𝐵𝑒 𝑖(𝑘𝑥+𝜔0𝑡) , where 𝑘 is wave number, 𝜔0 is angular frequency, 𝑖 is complex number,
A and B are the amplitudes of the perturbed solution.
Inserting values of y’ and V’ in Equation (9) and (11)
𝑖𝜔0 𝐴 + 𝑉𝑠 𝑖𝑘𝐴 + 𝐵 + 𝑦𝑠 𝐵𝑖𝑘 + 𝐴 =0 (12)
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
𝜕𝑉𝑠
𝑖𝜔0 𝐵 + 𝑔𝑖𝑘𝐴 + 𝑉𝑠 𝐵𝑖𝑘 + 𝐵
𝜕𝑥
4
𝑛2 𝑉𝑠2 4 2𝐵 8 𝐴 4𝐴 1 (13)
+ 𝑔 [ 4 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 )3 (𝑦𝑠3 (1 + + − ) − 4 )] = 0
𝑉𝑠 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 3 𝑦𝑠
𝑏3 𝑦3 𝑠
4 4
𝑛2 𝑉𝑠2
Upon simplifying Equation (13), assuming that 𝑔 4 (𝐵 + 2𝑦𝑠 )3 𝑦𝑠3 = 𝑀 and
𝐵3
4
𝑛2 𝑉𝑠2 (𝐵+2𝑦𝑠 )3
𝑔 4 4 = 𝑁, these result in
𝐵3 𝑦𝑠3
𝜕𝑉𝑠 2𝑀𝐵 8 𝑀𝐴 4 𝑀𝐴
𝑖𝑖𝜔0 𝐵 + 𝑔𝑖𝑘𝐴 + 𝑉𝑠 𝐵𝑖𝑘 + 𝐵 +𝑀+ + − −𝑁 =0 (14)
𝜕𝑥 𝑉𝑠 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 3 𝑦𝑠
For nontrivial solution of A and B, expressing Equations (12) and (14) in matrix form
𝜕𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑦𝑠
𝑖𝜔0 + 𝑉𝑠 𝑖𝑘 + + 𝑦𝑠 𝑖𝑘
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝐴
(𝑀 − 𝑁) +
8 𝑀 4𝑀 𝜕𝑉𝑠 2𝑀 [𝐵 ] = 0
𝑔𝑖𝑘 + − 𝑖𝜔0 + 𝑉𝑠 𝑖𝑘 + +
[ 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 3 𝑦𝑠 𝜕𝑥 𝑉𝑠 ]
Expansion of above determinant gives rise to Equations (15-16) as
2 2 2 𝜕𝑉𝑠 2 2𝑀 𝜕𝑉𝑠 8
2
𝑀 𝜕𝑦𝑠 4 𝑀 𝜕𝑦𝑠
−𝜔0 − 2𝜔0 𝑘𝑉𝑠 −𝑘 𝑉𝑠 + 𝑔𝑦𝑠 𝑘 + ( ) − + =0 (15)
𝜕𝑥 𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑥 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 𝜕𝑥 3 𝑦𝑠 𝜕𝑥
Page 4
𝜕𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑉𝑠 2𝑀 2𝑀 𝜕𝑦𝑠 8 𝑀 4

𝑖(2𝜔0 + 2𝑉𝑠 𝑘 + 𝜔0 + 𝑉𝑠 𝑘 − 𝑔𝑘 − 𝑦𝑠 𝑘 + 𝑀𝑘) = 0 (16)
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥 𝑉𝑠 𝑉𝑠 𝜕𝑥 3 (𝑏 + 2𝑦𝑠 ) 3
Equations (15) and (16) are solved numerically for obtaining frequency of the flow. This is
𝑑𝑦 𝜕𝑉
done using root solver ‘fsolve’ in Matlab by obtaining the equations for 𝑑𝑥𝑠 and 𝜕𝑥𝑠 as
𝑑𝑦𝑠 𝑆0 − 𝑆𝑓 𝑠
=
𝑑𝑥 𝑉𝑠 2 (17)
1 − 𝑔𝐷
𝑑𝑉𝑠 𝑆0 − 𝑆𝑓
𝑠
= (18)
𝑉 𝑦
𝑑𝑥 ( 𝑠 − 𝑠 )
𝑔 𝑉𝑠
Equations (17-18) are obtained from the steady state Equations (7-8). These equations are used
in root solver to numerically solve Equations (15-16) in Matlab. The frequency response for
different Froude number is studied. Effect of roughness coefficient and bed slope is also
investigated to understand their effect on frequency of perturbed flow.
Figure 1 presents the frequency response of the open channel flow as function of Froude
number (Fr). It is observed that at supercritical flow there is dominant frequency response
indicating there is frequency variations in supercritical flow (Figure1). For the subcritical flow,
the frequency response is significantly less, therefore indicating there is not much variation in
frequency in the subcritical flow regime. As energy gets dissipated during the transition of flow
during the hydraulic jump. It is also observed that sudden rise in the frequency response is seen
at the critical Fr =1.
Page 5
Figure 1. Frequency of flow vs. Froude number of an open channel flow.

Figure 2 shows the spatial variation of Froude number for the open channel flow. It is observed
that Fr decreases with distance until that reaches to Fr=1. Moreover, it is also seen that distance
of jump increases with Froude number. Similar results are also reported in literature (Mageed,
2015). The reason for this observation is attributed to increased upstream flow velocity causes
the hydraulic jump to occur after covering more distance whereas when the velocity is less,
jump is formed earlier.
Figure 2. Variation of Froude number along the distance for open channel flow
Figure 3 shows the frequency vs. Fr for different Manning constants (Mn) or roughness
Page 6
coefficient. It is observed that as Mn increases, the corresponding frequency also increases

and the frequency reaches to maximum Fr=1. For example, frequency of flow rises from 0.056
to 0.173 as roughness coefficient increases from 0.010 to 0.017.
Figure 3. Frequency analysis for changing roughness coefficients.
Figure 4 illustrates the nonlinear solution of Equations (7-8) for different Mn. It is observed
that there is a change in the behavior of flow at Fr=1. However, the distance of hydraulic jump
decreases with increase in roughness coefficient. The explanation for this observation is
attributed to dissipation of flow energy as bed of the channel becomes rougher, hence, the
velocity decreases and the jump is formed earlier as the roughness increases (Subramanya,
2009).
Page 7
Figure 4. Froude number dependence distance of hydraulic jump for different value of
Manning coefficient.
Figure 5 presents the frequency of perturbed flow vs. Froude Number for different bed slope
(S0) of the channel. It is observed that frequency decreases upon increasing, the frequency peak
still being at Fr =1. It is observed that frequency decreases from 0.1 to 0.06 as S0 is increased
from 0.0001 to 0.0007.
Figure 5. Frequency analysis for changing bed slopes
Figure 6 presents the nonlinear solution at different value S0 of the bed slope. It is observed the
change in the behavior is at Fr=1. At the same time, increase in the bed slope results in hydraulic
Page 8
jump at longer distance. The reason for this observation may be attributed to increase in flow
velocity upon increasing bed slope, hence the jump forms later. This observation is consistent
with the experimental results of Abdel (2015).
Figure 6. Froude number variations for changing bed slopes.
Although present analysis discusses the hydraulic jump under the conditions of steady state, it
would be interesting to carry out transient analysis of the St. Venant Equations (1-2). Since the
solution of these equations will provide insight both spatial and temporal variation of the
hydraulic jump in a channel.
5. Conclusions
The linear stability analysis of the governing equations of open channel flow is carried out
about steady state. Dominant change of frequency is found to be at the critical Froude number
equal to one. This result is further validated with corresponding nonlinear analysis. Effect of
roughness coefficient and bed slope on hydraulic jump also are evident at Froude number equal
to one. Frequency increases with roughness coefficient, while an increase in bed slope reduces
the frequency. It is also observed that the distance, at which hydraulic jump occurs, decreases
with increase in roughness of the bed. However, the opposite trend is seen in case of variation
of bed slope.
References
Abdel-Mageed, N., 2015. Effect of channel slope on hydraulic jump characteristics. Physical Science
International Journal, 7(4), pp.223-233.
Binnie, A.M. and Orkney, J.C., 1955. Experiments on the flow of water from a reservoir through an
open horizontal channel II. The formation of hydraulic jumps. Proceedings of the Royal Society
of London. Series A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 230(1181), pp.237-246.
Page 9
Carollo, F.G., Ferro, V. and Pampalone, V., 2007. Hydraulic jumps on rough beds. Journal of Hydraulic
Engineering, 133(9), pp.989-999.
Cassidy, J.J., Chaudhry, M.H. and Roberson, J.A., 1998. Hydraulic engineering. John Wiley & Sons,
Limited.
Chentouf, B. and Smaoui, N., 2018. Stability analysis and numerical simulations of a one dimensional
open channel hydraulic system. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 321, pp.498-511.
de Lima, A.C. and Izumi, N., 2014. Linear stability analysis of open-channel shear flow generated by
vegetation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 140(3), pp.231-240.
Defina, A. and Susin, F.M., 2003. Stability of a stationary hydraulic jump in an upward sloping channel.
Physics of Fluids, 15(12), pp.3883-3885.
Ghidaoui, M.S. and Kolyshkin, A.A., 1999. Linear stability analysis of lateral motions in compound
open channels. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 125(8), pp.871-880.
Hafnaoui, M.A., Carvalho, R.F. and Debabeche, M., 2016. Prediction of Hydraulic Jump location in
Some Types of Prismatic Channels using Numerical Modelling.
Kumar, M., Mishra, N. and Kumar, S., 2021. Investigation of Hydraulic Jump Over Rough Sloping
Floor in Prismatic Rectangular Channel—An Experimental Study. In Advances in Civil
Engineering and Infrastructural Development (pp. 221-231). Springer, Singapore.
Litrico, X. and Fromion, V., 2004. Frequency modeling of open-channel flow. Journal of hydraulic
engineering, 130(8), pp.806-815.
Litrico X. and Fromion V., Analytical approximation of open-channel flow for controller design, Appl.
Math. Model. 28 (2004) 677–695.
Reniers, A. J. H. M., Battjes, J. A., Falque´s, A., and Huntley, D.A. (1997). ‘‘A laboratory study of the
shear instability of longshore currents.’’ J. Geophys. Res., 102(C4), 8597–8609.
Subramanya, K., 2009. Flow in open channels. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
V.T. Chow, Open Channel Hydraulics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1985.
Velioglu, D. and Tokyay, N.D., 2012. Effects of Bed Roughness on the Characteristics of Hydraulic
Jumps. In 10th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical
University, Ankara, Turkey. a.Dawson, C. W., and Wilby, R. (1998). An artificial neural network
approach to rainfall-runoff modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 43(1), 47-66.
Witten, I. H., and Frank, E. (2005). Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques.
Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Francisco, USA.
Yeh, W. W. G. (1985). Reservoir management and operations models: A state‐of‐the‐art review. Water
Resources Research, 21(12), 1797-1818.
Page 10
Prediction of Discharge in Compound Channel with Converging and

Diverging Floodplains by ANN-PSO and MARS
Shekhar D.1, Das B. S.2, Khuntia J. R3 and Devi K.4
1
M. Tech Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Patna,
INDIA, 800005 Email: divyanshu2408@gmail.com
2
Asst. Prof, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Patna,
INDIA,800005 Email: bsd.ce@nitp.ac.in
3
Asst. Prof., Department of Civil Engineering, Chaitanya Bharathi Institute of Technology,
Hyderabad, INDIA Email: jnanaranjan444@gmail.com
4
Associate Prof., Department of Civil Engineering, Vidya Jyothi Institute of Technology
Hyderabad, INDIA Email: kamalinidevi1@gmail.com
Abstract
Estimation of the discharge plays an important role in optimizing flood management techniques
and to build essential flood defense systems and drainage systems. During the normal season,
the water completely flows in the main channel, but during the flood the watercourse overflows
its bank into the floodplains causing devastating effects and loss of livelihood. In nature, most
of the rivers comprise of the main channel and floodplains known as compound channel.
Discharge in non-prismatic compound channels such as converging and diverging compound
channels are difficult to compute using numerical methods. These methods are generally very
complex as it will require a system of non-linear equations to be solved and the traditional
methods give a poor result with large errors. Therefore, many soft computing techniques like
artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO), adaptive neuro-fuzzy
interface system (ANFIS), gene expression programming (GEP), multivariate adaptive
regression splines (MARS) are used to solve the complex problems. In this paper, a hybrid soft
computing technique, ANN-PSO, and MARS are used for the modelling of the discharge of
non-prismatic compound channels. The analysis is done by considering nine non-dimensional
parameters such as bed slope, relative flow depth, relative longitudinal distance, hydraulic
radius ratio, angle of convergence or divergence, flow aspect ratio, relative friction factor, and
area ratio as the influencing factor. For the best combination of the input variables, gamma test
is used and M-test is performed to get the best training length. The developed model found to
provide satisfactory results with mean absolute percentage error less than 12% and R2 value is
found to be greater than 0.85.
Keywords: Non-Prismatic Compound Channel, Gamma test, ANN-PSO, MARS
1. Introduction
Scientists and engineers are fascinated by rivers for a long time. The river is one of the
important sources of providing water for domestic, industrial, and agriculture. For a long time,
easy access to water attracted the establishment of civilization as well as industries in their
immediate surrounding floodplains. Due to numerous settlements on the bank of river, the
Page 1
floodplain's width is reduced in some places and extended in others, giving rise to a converging
or diverging shape to the floodplain known as non-prismatic floodplains. When the watercourse
overflows its bank, it causes flood due to which catastrophic impacts and a loss of livelihood
can be observed. Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters that occur near river
sections. These occurrences, can range in frequency from low-flow floods to high-flow floods
and have the ability to adversely affect urban areas, agricultural areas, and commercial and
industrial activities. This makes the proper estimation of discharge is very essential during
floods. By the estimation of flow discharge in floodplains, its severity can be determined and
can be later used for the development of flood prevention strategies. Many works have been
done to predict the discharge of the river, especially in a flooded river. Accurate prediction of
the discharge of the flooded river is one of the key challenges in river engineering because of
changes in the river geometry and hydraulic properties.
In natural rivers bodies, the pattern of the flow might change from uniform to non-uniform
because of variations in the cross-sectional area. In these circumstances, the hydraulic analysis
will be more difficult than in the case of simple uniform flow. Researchers Bousmar et al.
(2006), Proust et al. (2010), Rezaei and Knight (2009), and Rezaei and Knight (2011) observed
velocity distribution in the converging and diverging compound channel. (Meherbani et al.)
done an experimental study of floodplain vegetation in converging flood plain. The non-
prismatic compound channel has been the subject of a very small number of studies. (Bousmar
et al., 2006) conducted studies in diverging compound channels to compare the flow behaviour
between converging and diverging compound channels. Rezaei (2006) built an analytical
model for computing water surface profile based on an experiment in converging compound
channels.
Over the past 25 years, a variety of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have been employed
to calculate the channel's discharge capacity. (Das et al., 2021) and (Das et al., 2020) developed
a GEP and ANFIS model to estimate the rate of flow in the non-prismatic compound
channel. (Yonesi et al., 2022) used GMDH and MARS models in order to estimate discharge
in compound channels having non-prismatic floodplains. . (Jahanpanah et al., 2022)estimated
discharge with free overfall in rectangular channels using AI methods.
Prediction of discharge in converging and diverging compound channel using different

numerical method is very complex and also gives less accurate results. Many soft computing
methods like artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO), adaptive
neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), gene expression programming (GEP), and multivariate
adaptive regression splines (MARS) are used to solve complex problems rises during use of
the analytical method. In this study hybrid soft computing techniques, ANN-PSO and MARS
are used for discharge modeling of non-prismatic compound channels.
Page 2
2.1 Data collection
Data were collected through experiments performed by different authors on converging and
diverging compound channels. 290 data sets of experimental data for converging and diverging
compound channels were collected. Out of these 218 data were randomly selected for the
training of ANN-PSO and the rest data is used for the testing of the model. The maximum,
minimum, Std. The Div, Mean, and Median of the data are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Statistical index of the data being considered..

Statistical index fr Ar Rr β S0 δ* α Xr θ q/qmc
Maximum 2.608 22.590 35.090 0.5390 0.002003 6.54 5.82 1.000 14.57 12.31
Minimum 0.009 0.396 1.322 0.1110 0.000880 1.41 1.33 0.000 -13.38 1.136
Std. Div 0.343 3.398 2.672 0.1248 0.000357 1.51 1.26 0.334 8.35 2.262
Mean 0.789 3.384 3.198 0.3142 0.001279 3.69 2.80 0.442 1.80 2.685
Median 0.716 2.048 2.685 0.3050 0.001100 3.82 2.51 0.500 3.81 1.956
2.2 Gamma Test (GT)
GT is first reported by (Agalbjorn et al., 1997), later discussed in detail and improvised by
many researchers (Tsui, 1999; Durrant, 2001; Tsui et al., 2002). This novel technique enables
us to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean-squared error achieved by a smooth model
on unseen data for a given selection of inputs, before model construction. The GT results can
be organized by considering another term V-ratio, which restores a scaled invariant clamor
evaluation in the vicinity of 0 and 1. The V-ratio equation is shown below.
γ
v − ratio = σ2(y) (1)
σ is the variance of yield y. If V-ratio is close to zero, it indicates that there is a high degree
2
of predictability of the output in the model. (Evans and Jones, 2002).
Table 2 Results obtained from the Gamma test

Combination of the Gamma Gradient Std.error V-ratio Masking
input parameters
Ar,δ*,α, Xr,θ -0.000580 0.2447 0.0012 -0.017 010001111
Ar,β,So,δ*,θ -0.000370 0.0746 0.0006 -0.011 010111001
Rr,β,So,δ*,θ -0.000270 0.0844 0.0005 -0.008 001111001
Ar,Rr,β,θ -0.000100 1.2974 0.0029 -0.003 011100001
Ar,Rr,β,So,θ 0.000170 0.5232 0.0030 0.005 011110001
All-β 0.000298 0.1015 0.0011 0.008 111011111
δ*,α,Xr,θ 0.000533 0.2552 0.0015 0.016 000001111
Ar,Rr,So,δ*,α 0.000569 0.2236 0.0005 0.017 011011100
Ff,Rr,β,So,θ 0.000713 0.6449 0.0034 0.021 101110001
Page 3
More than 75 different input combinations are made to predict discharge using WinGamma
software. Here the best ten input combinations of the gamma test are presented in Table 2. In
Table 2, it can be seen that the combination of five parameters (Rr, β, So, δ*, θ) with mask
[001111001] provided a Gamma value close to zero, as along with the least gradient as
compared to other combinations chosen for developing the model.
2.3 ANN-PSO: -
ANN has evolved as a popular technique for modelling complex nonlinear relationships,
particularly when developing qualitative or conventional regression models becomes difficult
or time-consuming. ANN is a computer-based method with biological roots that replicate the
behavior and learning processes of the human brain. This method does not need an explicit
understanding of the physical phenomenon under investigation. ANN relies purely on the
historical input-output dataset to discover the relationship between the data through training.
The ANN-based model has outstanding performance for extremely complex data sets that are
generally very difficult to predict using mathematical modeling. ANN is a potent artificial
intelligence technology that is utilized in numerous active research fields.
2.4 Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO): -
The creation of particle swarm optimization was motivated by the social cooperative behavior
of flocking birds in their search for food. Individuals are referred to as particles while the
population is referred to as a swarm. The population-based model that the PSO algorithm uses
moves stochastically through their search space. This directs the swarm toward the ideal
objective by utilizing the capacity of each particle to draw on the expertise of others.
Figure 1 Flowchart of ANN-PSO algorithm0
Page 4
2.5 MARS
The multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) was introduced by (Friedman, 1991).
The MARS model can accurately predict the non-linear relationships between a set of input
and output variables. This model is among one of the local non-parametric models. The non-
parametric term is used in this model because the structure of the model is unknown prior to
modelling. Furthermore, the MARS model divides data into subcategories and then performs
the modelling operation for each of these subcategories, rather than using all data together.
Such subcategories' mathematical models are local. The MARS model can detect a hidden non-
linear pattern in a data set with a large number of variables. It is possible to define the
estimation function in this method, and there is no need to combine several statistical methods.
To obtain good results with MARS, input variables should not be highly correlated and no data
should be missing. MARS-based designed equations are used to predict the discharge ratio in
converging and diverging floodplains.
2.6 Qmc% model used in the present study for comparison
Three empirical model developed by Knight and Demetriou, (1983), Khatua and Patra (2007)
and (Devi et.al., 2016) has also been used for determining the Qmc %.
(Knight and Demetriou, 1983) developed an empirical formula for determining the Qmc..
100 α−1 0.25 4
Qmc % = [{(α−1)β+1}] + 108 [ ] [3.3β]α e−9.9β (3)
α
(Khatua and Patra, 2007) also developed a formula for determining Qmc% eq (4).
100 0.9643
Qmc % = 1.2338 [{(α−1)β+1}] (4)
(Devi et.al,2016), formula for calculation Qmc% is given below.

100δ∗ (δ+n+nβ)
Qmc% = 1.715 {δ∗(δ′ +n)+nβ(δ−2δ∗)+δ∗βδ(α−1)} (5)
3. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS
The results of the best fitting examination of the ANN-PSO model for a given number of nodes,
swarm size, and acceleration factors (C1and C2) with their evaluating index (MAPE, RMSE,
and R2) are depicted in Table 3. For the training and testing stage of the modeling, it was
observed that with change in the acceleration factors and swarm size, and the number of nodes,
RMSE and R2 values also changes. It can be easily observed from the Table 3 that trials with a
number of nodes equal to 5 and swarm size equal to 35, acceleration factors C1 and C2 as 1.5
and 2.5 respectively provides the high R2 value, and less RMSE and MAPE value. During
training RMSE, R2 and MAPE was found to be 0.029, 0.975 and 17.07% respectively. During
the testing phase value of MAPE, RMSE, R2 was found to be 21.618, 0.0412, 0.958
respectively. Therefore, the most optimized model obtained by the fitting examination is
observed as 5-35-1.5-2.5.
Page 5
During optimization with change in the acceleration factors, it was observed that the best output
was coming from 1.5 and 2.5 as the value of c1 and c2 respectively (Rukhaiyar et al. 2017).
The quality of result deteriorates with trials with different acceleration factors. Work done by
the earlier researcher does not focus on the fitting experiments for the best optimized ANN-
PSO model. Keeping the parameter as constant can be considered a primitive approach and
more study for optimizing the model is needed.
Table 3 Parametric study of ANN-PSO Model

Acc_factor
Number Swarm Training stage Testing stage
of nodes Size C1 C2
MAPE RMSE R2 MAPE RMSE R2
5 10 1.5 2.5 16.02 0.043 0.94 23.498 0.049 0.94
5 20 1.5 2.5 16.91 0.053 0.91 29.812 0.061 0.91
5 30 1.5 2.5 17.02 0.049 0.93 32.724 0.062 0.90
5 35 1.5 2.5 17.07 0.029 0.98 21.618 0.041 0.96
5 40 1.5 2.5 17.27 0.036 0.96 22.828 0.039 0.96
5 50 1.5 2.5 17.71 0.036 0.96 25.447 0.049 0.94
8 10 1.5 2.5 18.31 0.047 0.93 31.134 0.061 0.91
8 15 1.5 2.5 19.10 0.039 0.96 29.774 0.051 0.95
8 20 1.5 2.5 21.14 0.042 0.95 30.240 0.051 0.94
8 30 1.5 2.5 21.15 0.047 0.93 30.442 0.056 0.93
8 40 1.5 2.5 22.98 0.059 0.89 30.442 0.056 0.93
8 50 1.5 2.5 23.35 0.031 0.97 20.409 0.047 0.94
9 50 1.5 2.5 25.46 0.041 0.95 31.823 0.061 0.92
9 10 1.5 2.5 23.78 0.029 0.98 22.291 0.042 0.95
9 20 1.5 2.5 24.42 0.047 0.93 30.882 0.059 0.92
9 30 1.5 2.5 24.66 0.045 0.94 26.774 0.045 0.95
9 40 1.5 2.5 24.71 0.033 0.97 26.179 0.051 0.93
10 10 1.5 2.5 26.12 0.075 0.84 52.424 0.089 0.88
10 20 1.5 2.5 26.77 0.043 0.94 31.823 0.051 0.94
10 30 1.5 2.5 28.39 0.027 0.98 23.732 0.044 0.95
10 40 1.5 2.5 31.79 0.027 0.98 23.280 0.040 0.96
10 50 1.5 2.5 18.94 0.036 0.96 20.544 0.043 0.95
Table 4 MARS Model results.

Number
of Training Testing
iterations
MAPE RMSE R2 MAPE RMSE R2
2 9.576 0.0162 0.992 13.759 0.0244 0.977
3 9.128 0.0164 0.992 13.864 0.0224 0.980
4 8.545 0.0153 0.993 12.903 0.0236 0.978
Page 6
The result came after trying different number of iterations on the MARS model is shown in
Table 4. All the best fitting trials is done considering maxfunction equal to 50. The model with
iterations equal to 4 and maxfuncs as 50 came out as best fitting model as it has best R2, RMSE
and least MAPE then other. The value of MAPE, RMSE and R2 for training stage was found
as 8.545, 0.0153 and 0.993 respectively. And for testing stage the value of MAPE, RMSE and
R2 for training stage was found as 12.903, 0.0236 and 0.978 respectively. The model MARS
based model gives sightly accurate results then ANN-PSO model
Table 5 Basis functions and their coefficient of the MARS Model developed
Basis Function coefficient
B_F1 = max(0, So -0.13816) -0.043885

B_F2 = max(0,0.13816 - So) 6.3359
B_F3 = max(0,0.13246 - δ*) 2.7497
B_F4 = max(0, Rr -0.10431) -1.0873
B_F5 = max(0,0.10431 - Rr) 1.2768
B_F6 = max(0,0.41934 - θ). -0.19179
B_F7 = max(0,0.109 - δ*) -76.889
B_F8 = max(0, δ* -0.066566) 0.42591
B_F9 = max(0,0.85327 - β) -0.40753
B_F10 = B_F9 * max(0,0.31984 - θ) 0.44953
B_F11 = max(0, δ* -0.066566) * max(0,0.85327 - β) * max(0, θ - 0.31984) * 114.16
max(0,0.085794 - Rr)
B_F12 = B_F8 * max(0, Rr -0.17708) 15.675
B_F13 = B_F8 * max(0,0.17708 - Rr) -3.3857
B_F14 = B_F3 * max(0, Rr -0.060182) 16.301
B_F15 = B_F3 * max(0,0.060182 - Rr) 303.66
B_F16 = B_F16 = B_F5 * max(0,0.13816 - So) 47.171
B_F17 = B_F12 * max(0,0.1215 - β) -205.08
B_F18 = max(0, θ -0.41934) * max(0, β -0.70187) -0.56633
B_F19 = max(0, θ -0.41934) * max(0,0.70187 - β) 0.10997
B_F20 = B_F8 * max(0, x5 -0.60352) -0.39571
B_F21 = max(0,0.10431 - Rr) * max(0, So -0.13816) * max(0,0.19104 - θ) 103.06
B_F22 = max(0,0.10431 - Rr) * max(0, So -0.13816) * max(0, θ -0.41934) -7.889
B_F23 = max(0,0.10431 - Rr) * max(0, So -0.13816) * max(0,0.41934 - θ) -22.449
B_F24 = max(0, β -0.91425) 0.84718
B_F25 = max(0,0.10431 - Rr) * max(0, So -0.13816) * max(0, θ -0.19104) * max(0, 11.24
β -0.25397)
Page 7
Total 25 basis function was obtained from the developed MARS model as shown in Table 5.
The output of the MARS model came out in the form of equation as shown in equation 6.
25
𝑄/𝑄𝑚𝑐 = 0.11725 + ∑ 𝐵_𝐹𝑖 × 𝐶𝑖 (6)

𝑖=1
Table 6 Error analysis of all the methods used ANN-PSO, MARS, Knight, and
(Demetriou,1983), (Khatua and Patra,2007) and (Devi et.al.,2016)
Method MAE MAPE MSE RMSE R2
ANN-PSO 7.952 15.09 131.13 11.451 0.7188
MARS 3.642 7.17 28.95 5.381 0.9200
KandD 25.481 80.77 872.22 29.533 0.3184
KandP 24.643 79.43 855.76 29.253 0.2630
Devi et.al. 29.072 90.53 1097.86 33.134 0.2514
The author data set has been utilized to predict Q/Qmc value using the present approach i.e.,
ANN-PSO and MARS model. The correlation diagram shown in Figure 2 indicates that the
model predicts discharge very accurately for the Naik and Khatua (2016), Das(2018), and
Yonesi et al. (2013). For Rezaei,(2006) with converging angle of 1.91 ANN-PSO came out as
an better method that MARS.
Page 8
Figure 2 Correlation between the observed data of different authors and predicted data using
ANN-PSO and MARS
Page 9
Figure 2 Correlation graph of Qmc% determined by ANN-PSO, MARS.
Discharge of the main channel (Qmc%) has been found by two AI methods i.e. ANN-PSO, and
MARS, and three empirical formulas developed by Knight and Demetriou(1983), Khatua and
Patra(2007), and Devi et.al,(2016). The observed Vs predicted Qmc% has been plotted in
Figure 3
4. Conclusions
In the present study ANN-PSO and MARS soft computing approaches are successfully utilized
to predict the discharge in the converging and diverging compound channels. MARS and ANN-
PSO gave a satisfactory result in predicting the discharge however, it was observed that MARS
Model came out as a slightly better method than ANN-PSO Model as mentioned
5. References
Agalbjorn, S., Koncar, N., and Jones, A. J. (1997). A note on the gamma test. Neural
Comput Appl, 5(3), 131-133.
Alam, M. (2016). Codes in MATLAB for training artificial neural network using particle swarm
optimization. Research Gate, 1-16.
Bousmar, D. (2002). Flow modelling in compound channels. Unire de Genie Civil et
Environnemental.
Page 10
Bousmar, D., Proust, S., and Zech, Y. (2006, September). Experiments on the flow in a
enlarging compound channel. In River Flow 2006: Proceedings of the International
Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, Lisbon, Portugal, 6–8 September 2006 (pp. 323-332).
Leiden, Netherlands: Taylor and Francis.
Das, B. S. (2018). Non-uniform flow modelling in compound channels with non-prismatic
floodplains (Doctoral dissertation).
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Page 12
27 thInternational Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources
December 22 -24, 2022
An experimental and CFD based study on the effect of End Sill in energy
dissipation of Stilling Basins
Bhaswati Sen1, Satyaki Biswas2 and Mahendra Bera3
1
Third Year
ear Undergraduate, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of
Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur,
Shibpu India – 711103;
Email: sen.bhaswati2020ce@gmail.com
2
Fourth Year Undergraduate,
raduate, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of
Technology Kharagpur, India – 721302; Email: satyaki030701@gmail.com
3
Fourth Year
ear Undergraduate (Dual Degree),, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian
Institute
ute of Technology Kharagpur, India – 721302; E-mail: mahendrabera507@gmail.com
Abstract
A dam is essentially equipped with a spillway for releasing excess water from the reservoir at
times of flood. Thehe water flowing over spillways accelerates and gains kinetic energy as it
glides to the foot of the spillway and unless dissipated, even if partially, may lead to erosion
of the riverbed, thus undermining the stability of the dam. To this end, stilling b basins are
commonly used in dam-spillways
spillways as devices for dissipating a part of the flow energy
downstream by the formation of a hydraulic jump. Stilling basins are usually provided with
an end-sill
sill but the extent of reduction in downstream riverbed scour with with and without its
presence is not widely reported. Further, the effect of the end-sill end sill on the turbulence
characteristics of the flow near the bed is not discussed in previously published references.
This paper
er evaluates performance of the hydraulic jump stilling
stilling basin without and with the
end-sill on the flow behaviour, energy
energy dissipation and scouring characteristics. Experiments
are conducted on a hydraulic flume and the observations are supplemented using the
computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model ANSYS-FLUENT.
ANSYS FLUENT. The “Volume-of-Fluid
“Volume
(VoF)” technique is employed in the model to track the free surface for the numerical
simulations under different inflow discharges.
discharge On the basis of experimental and numerical
simulations, it is concluded that the addition of end-sill
sill reduces both the extent of scour as
well as the sequent depth. The CFD studies further throw light on the detailed velocity field
and the magnitude of turbulence in the entire flow,
Keywords: Hydraulic jump, Energy Dissipation,

Dissipation Stilling Basin, End Sill,, Computational
Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model, Scour
1. Introduction
Energy dissipation in the spillways of dams is required for reducing the impact of the flow
taking place and for restricting the extent of scour in the unprotected riverbed downstream.
The choice of energy dissipatorsrs generally varies between: (a) hydraulic jump stilling basin;
(b) ski-jump bucket, also called as flip
flip-bucket or trajectory bucket, and (c) solid or slotted
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
roller buckets. According to IS:10137

S:10137 (BIS. 1982), for dam spillways, the type of energy
dissipator should be decided on the joint consideration of tail water rating curve (TWC) and
the jump rating curve (JRC). The first of these is the observed water levels plotted against
discharge for
or a section downstream of the dam, while the second is the theoretical sequent
depths computed at the foot of the spillway for different discharges. A hydraulic jump type
stilling basin is recommended when the TWC and JRC nearly coincide for most of the
discharge range IS:4997 (BIS, 1968).
1968) Two important dams of the country,, the spillways of
which are equipped with stilling basin energy dissipators are the Bhakra Dam on river Sutlej
and the Sardar Sarovar Dam on river Narmada.
Narmada The stilling basin may be either er horizontal,
horizontal as
in Bhakra Dam or slightly inclined as in Sardar Sarovar Dam, which are both oth recommended
by IS:4997 (BIS, 1968) depending upon hydraulic conditions,
According to Hager (1992), it was Rehbock (1917) who first introduced the concept of an
“end-sill”
sill” of a hydraulic jump stilling basin for reducing scour on the unprotected riverbed on
the downstream of the structure. Several studies have been conducted, especially pecially by the
United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and the recommendations are enshrined in
documents like USBR (1965) and USBR (1987). (1987) In India, too, studies have been conducted,
most notably in the Central Water and Power Station (CWPRS) on spillways spillways and energy
dissipators such as Chitale (1959), Gaikwad et al. (1987), Khatsuria et al. (1988), Rama Rao
et al. (2014), etc. The comprehensive compendium on spillways and energy dissipators by
Khatsuria also discusses the hydraulics of the jump type stilling
stilling basin (Ch. 20 of Khatsuria,
2005). According to IS:4997 (BIS, 1968), the Indian standard recommends four types of
stilling basin energy dissipators. Types I and II basins are horizontal basin basins,, while types III
and IV are partially inclined and partially
partially horizontal basins. In types I and II, the basins have
combinations of the structural components: end-sill, sill, basin block and chute block;
block while types
III and IV have only end-sill located at the downstream end of the stilling basin. In this paper,
the role of the end-sill in reducing scour on the unprotected downstream riverbed is
investigated using a hydraulic model of a spillway and a removable end-sill sill such that the
effect on energy dissipation may be studied with and without its presence. Further, we also
study the hydraulics of the flow taking place in each case and draw inferences from the
velocity and turbulence structures obtained by running the ANSYS-Fluent Fluent computation fluid
dynamics (CFD) software package.
2.1 Experimental setup in hydraulic flume
A 5m long hydraulic flume available with the Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering
Laboratory of the Department of Civil Engineering in IIT Kharagpur is used for conducting
the physical experiments. A schematic of the model is shown in Figure 1. A closed-loop
recirculatory system is used in the setup to pump the water through the flume. The model
spillway and the sloping stilling basin are available as accessories with the Armfield make
hydraulic flume. The original model
mo stilling basin does not have an end-sill and thus the
appurtenance is fabricated from Perspex (8mm by 8mm section) and used for the studies
studies.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 1. Schematic of hydraulic recirculatory flume used in the experimental studies
The experimental setup p shown in Figure 1 is used in study: (a) the tail-water
water depths required
for the formation of hydraulic jump at the toe of the spillway for three different discharges,
and (b) the extent of scour observed in the sand box for the discharges
discharges and corresponding
correspondin tail-
water levels. As is known, for different discharges, the hydraulic jump will form at a specific
point at the foot of the spillway only if the tail-water
tail water is maintained accordingly. Hence, the
discharges were varied and the tail-water
tail levels noted aboveve a datum. Similarly, for changing
discharges and tail-water
water levels, the extent of scour would
would vary. Hence, the sand box, filled
with sand of average mean grain size (d50) as 1mm, was used in all the experiments.
experiments Since the
intent of the study was to evaluate the effect of end-sill,
sill, the stilling basin in the model was
used twice: once without an end--sill (Set 1), and subsequently with the end-sill (Set 2)2).
It may be mentioned that the 5m long flume is 0.075m wide and is primarily used for
educational purposes. A flow regulator in the circulation pipe was used to control the
discharge, while a tail gate (shown in Figure 1) was used to adjust the tail water level to
maintain the formation of the hydraulic jump at the specific location at the foot of the
spillway. The water levels in the flume were measured with point gauges while the profile of
the scoured bed downstream of the energy dissipator was noted with a hand hand-held laser
distance measurer. The different conditions used in the study are mentioned iin Table 1. A
photograph of a laboratory run is shown in Figure 2.
Table 1. Discharge conditions and discharges used in the experimental studies

Discharge condition A. Low B. Medium C. High
Discharge (Q, m3/s) 0.346 0.656 1.115
3
Unit Discharge (q, m /s per m) 0.0046 0.0087 0.0149
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 2. Photograph showing the side view of the model setup during an experiment.
2.2 Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software package ANSYS-Fluent

ANSYS
The ANSYS-Fluent
Fluent software package (student version) is used in this study for carrying out
the numerical computations. The details of the model are explained below.
2.2.1 Equation solver in ANSYS-Fluent

ANSYS
The software solves the equations of continuity and momentum in three dimensions using the
2D RANS-VOF multiphase finite volume
volu technique. In the present study, however, only a
two-dimensional
imensional flow field is studied as the flow is considered uniform across the channel’s
width. The RNG k-ε is used as the turbulence closure model.
The numerical studies are used here only to study the flow field and turbulence.
turbulence The
phenomenon of scouring is not replicated by numerical simulations and the experimentally
observed scoured bed profiles are used to define the bottom geometry in the computation
domain. A typical gridded mesh of the computations
compu is shown in Figure 3. It may be noticed
that for tracking the free-surface,
surface, a higher mesh density is used near the crest of the spillway
and along its face all the way up to the location where the jump is formed and beyond.
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 3. A typical computation mesh used in ANSYS

ANSYS-Fluent numerical simulation
simulation.
2.2.2 Boundary conditions for ANSYS-Fluent

ANSYS model setup
Appropriate boundary conditions,

conditions matching those of the experiments, need to be applied for
obtaining exact results. The boundary conditions applied ed to the computation domain include
pressure outlet at the exit and top free-air
free surface. Inflow
nflow discharge is applied by converting it
to an equivalent velocity at the inlet. The downstream water level is specified independently.
2.3 Parameters for comparison of energy dissipation: without and with end
end-sill
sill
The physical and numerical experiments conducted in this study were aimed at comparing the
efficiency of a hydraulic jump stilling basin without an end-sill
end sill versus one with an end-sill.
end
This has been attempted in two ways, as mentioned below:
below
1. By comparing the post-jump
jump depth (y2) corresponding to a given pre-jump
pre jump depth (y1),
the latter of which depends upon the discharge, and
2. By comparing the extent of scour on the riverbed downstream of the stilling basin
basin, for
example the maximum scour depth, y_sc, below a datum.
Figure 4 explains the variables mentioned above, which are compared for different discharges
mentioned in Table 1; for both types of stilling basins – without and with end-sill.
sill. For
Fo a given
discharge, the pre-jump
jump depth (y1) is the same for either case, since it is in the supercritical
flow region, before the hydraulic jump. On the other hand, the post-jump
post jump depth (y2) will
change, if there is a difference in the energy loss in the hydraulic
hydraulic jump. In general, the value
of y2 is smaller for a stilling basin with end-sill
end sill as compared to one without an end-sill.
end
Similarly, a greater energy loss due to the presence of an end-sill

end can be also confirmed by
comparing the maximum depth of sscour cour (y_sc) for the two stilling basins under different flow
conditions. It is expected that since end-sills dissipate a greater amount of energy than
without an end-sill,
sill, the value of y_sc will be lower in the former than that of the latter.
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 4. Definition sketch for y1, y2

y2, x_sc and y_sc.
Three discharges are tested for both without and with end-sills
end s in the hydraulic experiments
(Table 1). Accordingly, six sets of data are compared for the following parameters:
parameters
1. Differences
ces in y2, for the same discharge and corresponding y1;
2. Maximum scour depth (y_sc y_sc);
3. Location of the maximum scour (x_sc), and
4. Volume of scoured material, computed below a datum.
The same three flow conditions for the two types of stilling basin (without and with end
end-sill)
are tested in ANSYS-Fluent
Fluent for understanding the flow hydrodynamics. The following
sections discuss these results before drawing the final conclusions.
3.1 Comparison of sequent depth, y2
The post-jump
jump depth (y2) is measured both from the physical experiments and confirmed
from numerical simulation results under different discharges. The values are presented in
Table 2, which shows clearly that y2 is less for the experiments conducted with end-sills.
end
Table 2. Pre-jump
jump (y1) and post-jump
post (y2) depths for the experimental studies.. A, B, and C:
three discharge conditions ranging from low to high. Note the reduction in y2 for each case.
Unit Discharge, q A. 0.0046 m2/s B. 0.0087 m2/s C. 0.0149 m2/s
Parameter y1 (m) y2 (m) y1 (m) y2 (m) y1 (m) y2 (m)
Without end-sill 0.0018 0.0168 0.00485 0.0311 0.00900 0.0449
With end-sill 0.0018 0.0166 0.00485 0.0281 0.00900 0.0407
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
3.2 Comparison of the extent of scour
The scour parameters x_sc (location of maximum scour), y_sc (maximum scour depth below
datum as shown in Figure 4), and the volume of scoured material below the datum line are
presented in Table 3.
Table 3. Scour parameters from experimental studies under three discharge conditions.
Unit Discharge,
A. 0.0046 m2/s B. 0.0087 m2/s C. 0.0149 m2/s
q
Vol Vol Vol
Scour x_sc y_sc x_sc y_sc x_sc y_sc
(10-6 (10-6 (10-6
Parameter  (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m)
m3) m3) m3 )
Without end-sill 0.035 0.014 120 0.157 0.019 236 0.170 0.025 363
With end-sill 0.033 0.004 9 0.095 0.009 52 0.120 0.018 197
From the above table, it is observed that the maximum depth of scour and the volume of
scoured material both are substantially lower for the stilling basin with end
end-sill.
The scoured profiles for the two types of stilling basin (without and with endend-sill) are also
plotted in Figures 5 and 6 respectively. A visual comparison of the two figures also confirms
that for the same discharge, the stilling basin with an end-sill
end indicates a smaller scour than
that without an end-sill.
3.3 Observations on the flow field and turbulence from CFD simulations
The CFD model ANSYS-Fluent Fluent (student version) is run to provide additional insight into the
flow field and turbulence characteristics for the two types of stilling basins (that is, without
and with end-sill). Since there are three discharge conditions as given in Table 1, six different
model setups are created using and and run with the appropriate boundary conditions. As
mentioned previously, the scoured riverbed for the different conditions are digitized and
applied as the bottom surface of the corresponding models. The number of cells in the
computation mesh for the different
ferent model setups is of the order of 2,00,000 and each model
takes a few hours to run on a desktop PC. Some of the setups were run on the High
Performance Computing (HPC) machines of IIT Kharagpur, in which it takes two to three
hours to complete each run.
Figures 7 and 8 compare the flow field for the flow condition C (unit discharge, q = 0.0149
m2/s)) for the two types of stilling basins. It may be noticed that the flow of the stilling basin
without end-sill
sill (Figure 7) shoots down towards the unprotected riverbed. In contrast, for the
stilling basin with end-sill
sill (Figure 8) it is observed that the flow is deflected upwa
upwards and
away from the riverbed. This explains the reason of a greater amount of scour for the stilling
basin without end-sill in n comparison to one with an end-sill.
end It may also be noted from
figures that the surface of the hydraulic jump is also more violent in case of no end end-sill
(Figure 7) in comparison with that with end-sill
end (Figure 8).
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
y (m)
Exp 1A Exp 1B Exp 1C
0.02
0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
x (m)
lot of scour profile for the stilling basin without end-sill under three discharges.
Figure 5. Plot
y (m)
Exp 2A Exp 2B Exp 2C

0.02
0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
x (m)
lot of scour profile for the stilling basin with end-sill under three discharges.
Figure 6. Plot
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
lot of water volume fraction for the stilling basin without end-sill for discharge condition
Figure 7. Plot
A (q = 0.0149 m2/s).
lot of water volume fraction for the stilling basin with end-sill for discharge condition A
Figure 8. Plot
(q = 0.0149 m2/s).
A comparison of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is made for the two flow conditions in
Figures 9 and 10, respectively corresponding to without and with end-sill
end sill stilling basin. The
parameter TKE gives an estimate of the strength of turbulence within the flow and is
responsible for enhancing the scour at a location.
As may be observed from the figures, the TKE near the stilling basin floor and riverbed is
more for the case of no end-sill
sill (Figure 9) in comparison with that with end-sill
end sill (Figure 10).
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
lot of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) for the stilling basin without end-sill
Figure 9. Plot sill for discharge
condition A (q = 0.0149 m2/s).
lot of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) for the stilling basin with end-sill
Figure 10. Plot sill for discharge
condition A (q = 0.0149 m2/s).
A further comparison is made in Figures 11 and 12 of the x-direction

x direction velocity magnitude and
TKE along a vertical section at the downstream edge of the stilling basin (that is, at the
beginning of the unprotected riverbed) respectively for the cases of without and with endend-sill
stilling basins. It is clearly observed that both the maximum velocity as well as the maximum
TKE is shifted away from the bed by the introduction of the end-sill.
end Since the velocity near
the riverbed as well as turbulence in the flow close to the bed are responsible for the erosion
of the bed material (Hoffmans
Hoffmans and Verheij. 2017), the extent of scour for the stilling basin
with end-sill
sill is lower than that without end-sill.
end
Page 10
December 22 -24, 2022
Without end sill With End Sill

0.16
Depth (m)
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
-0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
x Velocity (m/s)
Figure 11. Plot of x-component

component of velocity for stilling basin with and without end end-sill at the
downstream edge of the basin (that is, at the beginning of the unprotected riverbed).
Without End Sill With End Sill

0.16
0.14
0.12
Depth (m)
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
TKE (J/kg)
Figure 12. Plot of TKE for stilling basin with and without end-sill at basin’s downstream end.
Page 11
December 22 -24, 2022
4. Summary and Conclusions
An end-sill
sill is essentially provided with hydraulic jump stilling basins in practical projects of
dams and barrages. This paper attempts to investigate the reasons behind the effectiveness of
the end-sill in energy dissipation by simultaneously employing the following two techniques:
(i) Conducting
onducting physical experiments
experiment in a hydraulic flume, and
(ii) Conducting
onducting numerical experiments using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code
ANSYS-Fluent.
Three sets of discharge conditions are tested, each for stilling basins without and with end end-
sill. On the basis of the physical and numerical experiments on each of these,, the following
observations are made and conclusions drawndrawn:
a) There is a reduction in sequent
equent depth for the same discharge for the stilling basins with
an end-sill as compared to one without the end-sill,
end , which equivalently indicates a loss
of energy by comparing the total energy heads
head in the two cases,
b) There is a reduction in scour of the unprotected
u riverbed for the basin with an end
end-sill
in comparison with the one that is not having one, indicating a reduction in near-bed
velocity (and consequently shear-stress) and local turbulent energy of the flow (a
function of turbulentt fluctuations close to the bed) due to the presence of an end
end-sill,
c) The results from the CFD runs, in addition, show that the presence of an end-sillend in a
stilling basin deflects the flow velocity near bed away from the bed, thus helping in
reducing scour, and
d) Also from the CFD runs it is seen that the t near-bed
bed turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is
also reduced substantially by the presence of the end-sill,
end sill, also aiding in the reduction of
scour.
The above observations thus provide insights into the reasons behind the reducti
reduction of
riverbed scour by end-sills
sills in stilling basins, which are commonly used in many spillways of
dams and barrages.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the support of Mr. Debasish Ghosh and Mrs. Eshita, laboratory technical
officers of the HWRE laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Kharagpur for providing all
help during the experiments. The authors are also grateful to Mr. Pankaj Singh, research scholar, for
helping us in conducting the physical experiments as well as in running the numerical
umerical simulations in
i
the CFD platform ANSYS-Fluent
Fluent using the HPC of IIT Kharagpur.
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P.B. and Bhosekar V.V. (Mrs.) (1987) "Consideration of macro turbulent pressure
fluctuations in design of divide walls of stilling basins", Proceedings of International
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Page 13
Flood modelling and mapping for a reach of the

Narmada River
Anoop Pandey1, Rajesh Srivastava2

1
Ph.D. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Kanpur, Kanpur-208016, UP, India; Email: anoop20@iitk.ac.in
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Kanpur, Kanpur-208016, UP, India; Email: rajeshs@iitk.ac.in
Abstract
The identification and mapping of flood-prone areas is a vital element of any flood management
program. A combination of hydraulic modelling and remote sensing has been used for decades
to predict flood events. In the present study, flood mapping has been done for a 92 km stretch
of the Narmada River from Hoshangabad to Nemawar, using the geospatial technique and
hydraulic modelling approach. Digital elevation model (DEM) data of the river with a
resolution of 1 arc second has been obtained from the shuttle radar topographic mission
(SRTM). Daily flow data for 30 years has been acquired from the WRIS-India for the gauging
site at Hoshangabad. For 2-D flow simulation, Land cover data has been used for roughness
estimation. Using HEC-RAS, flood simulation has been performed for various flood events.
The effect of flow discharge on the inundation area has been analysed and showed an increase
of 103.38% in the inundation area when discharge changes from 8000 cumecs to 16000
cumecs. Further increase in discharge to 24000 cumecs, resulted in a 69.27% increase in the
inundation area. 1-D and 2-D unsteady flow events have been simulated using HEC-RAS and
show that, for the same flow data, inundation area obtained by 1D flood modelling is 58.47%
of that obtained by 2-D flood modelling. The effect of the computation time interval and mesh
size of the 2-D flow area has also been analysed. Flow parameters are less sensitive to mesh
size and time intervals, but the extent of inundation shows high sensitivity to mesh size. Flood
hazard mapping has been done by considering the depth and velocity of 100-year flow
discharge and potential hotspots have been identified.
Keywords: Digital Elevation Model, Geospatial Technique, Flood Modelling, Inundation

Mapping, Hotspots
1. Introduction
Floods are caused by flows exceeding the transporting capacity of waterbodies (Getahun and
Gebre, 2015). It is a recurring event in floodplains of monsoon rainfall areas like India, where
over 75% of rainfall falls in 4 months from June to September. Recent studies show that floods
may cause significant problems in future because of climatic changes. Increased temperature
of the global environment provides higher energy to the earth system, which leads to more
evaporation and higher precipitation. Also, an increased population fueled by economic
competition increases the exposure of valuable properties and human beings to waterbodies.
Page 1
Flood maps showing the extent of flooding for given extreme events contain helpful
information for the government and the public for planning and monitoring different remedial
measures (Dewan, 2013). Mao et al. (2019) and Aryal et al. (2020) used a 1-D hydrodynamic
model and calculated flood inundation areas with the help of GIS and HEC-RAS. Nguyen et
al. (2015) used a 2-D hydrodynamic model and developed a flood map of high resolution (10
m) consisting of flow depth and velocity. Flood-prone areas can be classified based on flow
depth, flow velocity and multiplication of flow depth and flow velocity, but a ranking of flood-
prone areas and hazards map relies on the end user’s requirement (Merz et al., 2007). This
paper analyses the flood risk for a stretch of the Narmada River based on 1-D and 2-D
hydrodynamic modelling approaches. For 2-D modelling, the model performance has been
compared among different mesh-size and time-interval combinations.
2. Data requirement and methodology
Smith et al. (2006) reviewed the data requirement for flood modelling. The principal data need
for flood modelling is a high-quality Digital Elevation Model, which represents the bare earth
and should not be affected by vegetation cover or building artefacts. Another key dataset is
boundary conditions at inlet and outlet in the form of flow, stage, or rating curve. The only
parameter which is required by the model is friction, specified as a lumped coefficient which
subsumes all the losses which cannot be explicitly used in the momentum equations. Lastly,
for accessing the efficacy of the flood map, a validation map is required. After collecting the
data, a model can be run in the HEC-RAS and results can be exported for PostGIS analysis.
2.1 Model Description
HEC RAS with the combination of QGIS can be used for the efficient modelling and mapping
of any flood event (Dyhouse et al., 2003). For this DEM data has been processed in QGIS and
is imported into HEC-RAS for simulating various flood events. RAS-Mapper has been used
for editing the geometry of the river. There are four options available in HEC-RAS for
floodplain modelling: -
1. Extended cross-section
2. Extended cross-section with ineffective flow
3. Lateral spills with storage units
4. Lateral spills with parallel channel
We use the first approach, in which the cross-sections are extended to the full width of the
floodplain. During that extension, sections must remain perpendicular to the main channel and
hence may need to be dog-legged. This approach assumes that water level in all parts of a cross
section is same. Steady flow modelling has been performed for return periods of 10 years, 25
years, 50 years, and 100 years. The steady flow component can simulate subcritical,
supercritical, and mixed flow conditions. Since the flow discharge is very high, supercritical
flow condition has been simulated. The basic computational procedure involves the solution of
a one-dimensional energy equation (Brunner, 2016). Energy losses have been computed for
friction (Manning’s n) and contraction/expansion effects (loss coefficient multiplied by the
change in velocity head).
Page 2
𝛼1 𝑣1 2 𝛼2 𝑣2 2 𝛼2 𝑣2 2 𝛼1 𝑣1 2
𝑊𝑆𝐸𝐿2 = 𝑊𝑆𝐸𝐿1 + ( − ) + 𝐿𝑠̅𝑓 + 𝐶𝑒,𝑐 | − |
2𝑔 2𝑔 2𝑔 2𝑔
where, 𝐿𝑠̅𝑓 is the loss due to friction between two locations, 𝑠̅𝑓 is average energy slope
𝛼2 𝑣2 2 𝛼1 𝑣1 2
between two locations, 𝐶𝑒,𝑐 | − | is energy loss due to expansion and contraction
2𝑔 2𝑔
between two locations. 𝐶𝑒,𝑐 are expansion and contraction coefficients. Generally, values of
𝐶𝑐 and 𝐶𝑒 are 0.1 and 0.3, respectively, for subcritical flow and 0.05 and 0.1, for super-critical
flow for natural channels.
Unsteady flow simulation is more realistic than the steady flow simulation for most of the river.
It solves the 1-D Saint Venant equation (Brunner, 2016):
𝜕𝐴 𝜕(𝑣𝐴)
Continuity Equation + =𝑞
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥
𝜕𝑣 𝜕𝑣 𝜕𝑦
Momentum Equation +𝑣 +𝑔 − 𝑔(𝑠0 − 𝑠𝑓 ) = 0
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑥
Where A = flow area, t = time, v = velocity, x = distance along the flow path, q = lateral inflow
per unit length of channel, y = hydraulic depth, 𝑠0 = bed slope, and 𝑠𝑓 = friction slope. In
unsteady solver, channel and floodplain modelling has been performed by dividing the
geometry into two separate channels and writing continuity and momentum equation for each
channel (Smith, 1978).
The fundamental principle underlying 2-D flood simulation through HEC-RAS is to discretize
the floodplain and its channel area into a collection of individual cells. Each computational grid
cell consists of elevation data and roughness factor to represent the surface elevation and
friction effect of the surface. In HEC-RAS, 2-D flow area can be generated for same 1-D
geometry under 2-D flow area window. HEC-RAS uses combination of finite difference
method and finite volume method to compute water surface elevation at the center of each
computational grid cell. The fundamental equation that HEC-RAS uses for computation is 2-
D shallow water equation that is derived from the 2-D Navier stokes equation. Shallow water
equations are derived by neglecting vertical velocity term of Navier stokes equation (Brunner,
2016):
𝜕𝐻 𝜕(ℎ𝑢) 𝜕(ℎ𝑣)
Continuity equation: - + + +𝑞 =0
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑦
𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝐻 𝜕2 𝑢 𝜕2 𝑢
Momentum Equation: - + 𝑢 𝜕𝑥 + 𝑣 𝜕𝑦 = −𝑔 𝜕𝑥 + 𝜈[𝜕𝑥 2 + 𝜕𝑦 2 ] − 𝑢𝑐𝑓 + 𝑓𝑣
𝜕𝑡
𝜕𝑣 𝜕𝑣 𝜕𝑣 𝜕𝐻 𝜕2 𝑣 𝜕2 𝑣
+ 𝑢 𝜕𝑥 + 𝑣 𝜕𝑦 = −𝑔 𝜕𝑥 + 𝜈[𝜕𝑥 2 + 𝜕𝑦 2 ] − 𝑣𝑐𝑓 + 𝑓𝑢
𝜕𝑡
where  = kinematic viscosity, 𝑐𝑓 = friction coefficient, u = velocity in x direction, v = velocity

in y direction, H = average water surface elevation, h = water depth, f = Coriolis parameter.
Page 3
In some shallow water flows the barotropic pressure gradient and bottom friction term are
dominant and advection, viscous and unsteady terms may be disregarded. The momentum
equation then becomes a 2-D diffusion wave equation which is easier to solve numerically.
2.2 Study Area and Data Source
2.2.1 Study Area
This work is done for a 92 km stretch of the Narmada River, from Hoshangabad to Nemawar
(Figure 1). The Narmada River is the 5th longest river and overall, longest westward flowing
river in India. This river flows through the states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat. It rises from
Amarkantak Plateau in Annupur district, Madhya Pradesh and flows westward over a length of
1312 km before draining in the Gulf of Khambhat. Narmada basin extends over an area of
92672.42 km2 and lies between east longitudes 72°38′ to 81°48′ and north lattitudes 21°27′ to
23°37′ (Narmada Basin Report, 2001).
Figure 1 Study area for flood simulation
2.2.2 Data and their Sources
Flood modelling tools require four set of data for simulating any flood event which are
geometry data, boundary conditions, friction parameter, and flood map for validation of model.
DEM data of study area has been obtained from USGS-SRTM having resolution of 1 arc
second (30 m). Stage and discharge data for Hoshangabad gauging site of Narmada river were
Page 4
taken from WRIS-India (Water Resource Information System) at the daily scale. Manning’s n
value for 1-D modelling for different cross-section has been taken from literature (n = 0.035
for main channel, n = 0.05 for the overbanks). For 2-D flow simulation, Manning’s n value is
estimated from the land cover data, as recorded by Landsat-8 during August 2013, and
downloaded from the USGS website. Landsat-8 OLI layer has been classified with the help of
maximum likelihood classifier. Different data and their sources have been listed in Table 1.
Table 1 Data and their sources
S.no Type of data Source
1 Daily discharge data (For 30 year) India WRIS
2 DEM data (1 arc second) USGS earth explorer or SRTM

downloader plugin in QGIS
3 Land Use Land Cover Band set Landsat-8/USGS Earth explorer
2.3 Data Processing
Raw data acquired from different sources cannot be directly incorporated into the model.
Processing of each set of data is required for efficient simulation. DEM data is processed in
QGIS and sink has been filled by Wang and Liu approach (Wang and Liu, 2006). The sink
filled DEM data has been exported as a Raster .tiff file. Daily discharge data for Hoshangabad
gauging site of Narmada River were obtained for a 30-year period from WRIS-India. For steady
flow modelling, flood frequency analysis has been performed for annual peak flow data by
Gumbel method (Type  Extreme Value distribution) and shown in Table 2. Gringorten (1963)
plotting position method has been used to compare the theoretical and calculated return period
for same annual peak flow series (Figure 2).
Table 2 Flow data for steady flow modelling
Return Period (Years) 5 10 25 50 100
Discharge (cumec) 16,860 20,702 25,558 29,159 32,734
Page 5
Figure 2 Gumbel distribution fitting for annual peak flow data of 30 year
For unsteady flow simulation, discharge data from 1 Aug-2013 to 30 Aug-2013 were used at
the interval of 24-hours. The major source of uncertainty in any flow model is the measuring
technique of gauge data (stage or discharge). In India, as per CWC, these data should be
recorded at hourly basis in the monsoon seasons (RD-4) and three times in a day during non-
monsoon seasons (RD-3 at 8:00, 13:00, 18:00 hrs.). Roughness data for 2-D unsteady flow
modelling is entered in the form of land cover data. For that land use land cover data for selected
area were obtained from USGS and processed into QGIS using supervised classification. For
different area class such as waterbody, agricultural area, barren land, and forest area,
Manning’s n has been assigned as 0.035, 0.05, 0.05, 0.1 respectively.
2.4 Setting up HEC-RAS model
Esri project file of the area is imported into RAS-Mapper and a new terrain is created by
importing raster file of selected area. 1-D geometry editing is performed by analysing the DEM
data of the area (Figure 3). Center line of the river has been marked as the deepest point at any
cross-section which has been identified with the help of profile tool. Riverbanks have been
marked and flow path has been created based on the 100-year flow boundaries. Cross-section
data were edited perpendicular to flow direction by making them dog-legged. Care has been
taken while cutting the cross-sections that these must be extended over the entire flood extent
and must be digitized from left to right. Manning’s n value has been set for different cross-
sections in the geometry tool of HEC-RAS. For 2-D geometry, a storage area is created based
on the flow boundaries of 100-year flow. Simulation for 2-D flow area has been performed for
50 m and 100 m grid sizes with 30 sec, 1-minute and 2-minute computation time intervals.
Page 6
Figure 3 1-D geometry of study area
After a successful model run, several pieces of information can be obtained by viewing the
different result layers, such as depth, velocity, water surface elevation, shear stress, inundation
area, and depth multiplied by velocity. Steady flow modelling has been performed for 10-year
return period, 25-year, 50-year and 100-year return period flood. The model has computed all
the hydraulic parameters for each cross-section. As a flood modeller, the variation of these
parameters along the cross-section is more important than the parameters at any cross-section.
The HEC-RAS interface provides access to view the variation of different hydraulic parameters
along the river. A brief output is presented in Table 3 for some cross-sections.
As expected, the extent of inundation increases with an increase in discharge. As discharge

increases from 12000 cumecs to 16000 cumecs, the percentage increment in the inundation
area is 41.17%, and when discharge reaches 20000 cumecs, percentage increment is 34.78%.
For a further increase in discharge to 24000, the increment in inundation area is 25.58%. So,
we can conclude that with the same increment in discharge, incremental increase in inundation
area increases. Variation of inundation area with the flow is shown in Figure 4. For different
return periods of flow, inundation areas were computed using raster calculator, and it has been
found that inundation in the upper reach is more than that in the lower reach.
Flow depth and velocity layer from HEC-RAS have been exported in the Raster format and
have been mapped into QGIS. These maps are shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6, respectively.
In QGIS, area related to each depth class has been calculated using raster calculator and is
presented in Figure 7.
Page 7
Table 3 Variation of hydraulic parameters long the reach for 50-year return period flow
Reach Station Discharge Chnl WSE EG slope Vel Flow area Top Frct Fr
cumec elev(m) (m) Chnl(m/sec) (sqm) Width(m) Loss No
Reach 1 302029 29158.99 287.95 303.32 0.000293 2.94 12280.82 2547.72 0.08 0.24
Reach 1 301050 29158.99 287.9 303.29 0.000254 2.69 14034.03 2736.73 0.06 0.23
Reach1 300274 29158.99 287.85 303.27 0.000225 2.5 15131.72 3195.61 0.08 0.21
Reach 1 299032 29158.99 287.79 303.21 0.000223 2.48 18546.68 4105.38 0.07 0.21
Reach 1 298061 29158.99 287.73 303.08 0.000027 2.72 16307.73 3409.49 0.1 0.23
Reach1 296945 29158.99 287.67 302.89 0.000333 3.05 14646.85 3040.33 0.18 0.26
Reach 1 295494 29158.99 287.59 302.52 0.000498 3.57 12046.14 2778.89 0.25 0.31
Reach 1 294043 29158.99 287.51 302.12 0.000642 3.97 10753.28 3044.28 0.21 0.35
Figure 4 Variation of inundation area with discharge
Page 8
Figure 5 Flow depth map for different return period flows
Figure 6 Flow velocity for different return period flows
Page 9
250
Low Moderate High Very High
200
Area in Sq km
150
100
50
0
10 25 50 100
Return Period
Figure 7 Area corresponding to different hazards classes for different return period flow
1-D unsteady flood modelling for the same geometry results in better calibration of the
rating curve for the gauging site than the steady flow modelling. Generally, steady flow
simulation gives a conservative result and overestimates the stage values for the same flow.
In the RAS-Mapper viewer, we can explore different types of output layers such as Depth,
Velocity, Water surface elevation, flow (1D Only), Inundation Boundary, Courant
(Velocity/length), Courant (Residence Time, 2D only), Froude No., Shear Stress, and
Depth×Velocity. Maximum depth and velocity profiles show the instantaneous maximum
values of depth and velocity at each point in the flow area. These maximum values can
occur at different times at each location, so the plot is not a snapshot of any actual situation.
From the following map, it can also be observed that the maximum value of any parameter
(for example, depth of flow) does not necessarily relate to the maximum value of another
parameter (for example, velocity).
The stage at the upstream river station has also been simulated and compared with the
observed stage data at the gauging site Hoshangabad (Figure 8). The difference between
the observed and simulated rating curves reflects the error in the digital elevation model
and the error in the zero of the gauge at the gauging site. Both steady and unsteady flow
simulation starts with the same geometry and roughness data, but the water surface profiles
for the same flow are somewhat different (in the range of 0.03-0.3 m or more than that).
This difference is due to the difference in the computational procedure of steady and
unsteady profiles. Since the actual flow in the river is unsteady, the 1-D unsteady flood
modelling produced a similar trend of rating curve to that of the actual rating curve.
Page 10
304
Rating Curve
302
300
Water Surface Elevation(m)
298
296
294
292
1D Unsteady Output
290
Actual Rating Curve
288
Steady Flow Output
286
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Discharge(cumec)
Figure 8 Simulated and actual stage discharge relation for upstream river station
2-D unsteady flow simulation has been performed by dividing the study area into 50 m and
100 m square grids. It has been observed that 2-D flow modelling produces better flow
connectivity than 1-D flow modelling. This is because the model computes the flow parameters
at the center of each grid in 2-D flow modelling. Also, the spatial distribution of roughness data
is considered, which makes the simulation more efficient. The inundation area estimated by 2-
D flood modelling is more than the inundation area estimated by 1-D flood modelling, which
is due to the increment in computational points.
The comparison of model performance for different grid sizes indicates no significant
difference in the results. However, the extent of inundation varies with grid size, which is
shown in Table 4. With a coarser grid size, the time for computation also reduces due to the
reduction of computational points. Routed hydrograph from a different set of 2-D simulations
has been presented in Figure 9. For a space interval of 50 m and a time interval of 2 min, the
model became unstable while computing flow parameters. For all other space and time
intervals, the model was found to be stable.
Page 11
Table 4 Inundation area computed from different type of simulation
S. No Type of Simulation Inundation Area (Sq. km)
2 min 1 min 30 sec
1 1-D Unsteady 217.637 217.377 215.937
2 2-D with 100m grid 323.653 341.828 369.30
3 2-D with 50m grid 311.642 321.724 336.27
Routed Hydrograph
30000 100m-30 sec 100m-1min
100m-2 min 50m-2min
25000 50m-1min 50m-30sec
Inflow
20000
Flow(CMS)
15000
10000
5000
0
8/1/2013 8/6/2013 8/11/2013 8/16/2013 8/21/2013 8/26/2013 8/31/2013
Time
Figure 9 Routed hydrograph at downstream of the selected reach
Courant number has been estimated at each location of the floodplain, and it has been found
that for different simulations, Courant number is highest for the simulation with a grid size of
50 m and time-step of 2 min. The percentage area of floodplain for different Courant numbers
for different models is shown in Table 5. In our model, best simulation is obtained for 2-D flow
area having a grid size of 100 m, and computational time-step of 30 sec, which is followed by
the performance of the model of 50 m-30 sec, 100 m-1 min and 50 m-1 min.
Page 12
Table 5 Percentage area of floodplain for different Courant number for different models
Courant number 100m-2min 100m-1min 100m-30sec 50m-2min 50m-1min 50m-30sec
0-0.5 60.95 74.61 87.61 53.83 63.58 76.08
0.5-1 12.55 10.75 11.93 8.75 11.48 9.50
1-1.5 5.66 11.00 0.38 6.60 5.1 10.17
1.5-2.0 4.46 3.05 0.03 4.86 4.1 3.55
>2.0 16.38 0.59 0.05 25.96 15.74 0.7
4. Conclusions
Flood events have been simulated in HEC-RAS for different conditions and results of each
simulation have been imported into the QGIS for flood mapping for different end user
requirements. In the present study, bathymetric DEM data of resolution 30 m is used as
geometric data, but better results may be obtained with finer resolution. The estimation of
inundation area using steady flood modelling for selected river reach revealed that with the
same increment in discharge, incremental increase in inundation area increases. Steady flow
simulation results were used for flood mapping of the investigation area. Hazards mapping for
the study area has been done by considering the depth of flow as a critical parameter for a flood.
After mapping, areas having higher depths have been marked as a hotspot.
Unsteady flow modelling of same 1-D river geometry results in better simulation of rating
curve for Hoshangabad site than that simulated by steady flow modelling. 2-D flow simulation
of investigated area is more realistic in terms of roughness parameter selection and results in
better flow connectivity than the 1-D flow simulation of same reach. Inundation area have been
computed for each simulation performed with different grid sizes and different time step for
computation and it has been found that model output is very sensitive to space interval and
time step for computation. Stability analysis for different model output shows that smaller time
step with smaller space interval results in stable output. It has also been seen that as grid size
reduces but time step for computation remains same, model shows deviation from other
simulations. Courant number for different flow simulation at a particular flow profile signify
the performance of model with different space and time interval.
Despite, advancement in resolution of different datasets, still bathymetry DEM data with better
resolution is a problem in flood modelling. Development of technologies such as wide-swath
bathymetry and side-scan sonar for small river channel or water bodies may be a significant
solution here. Manning’s roughness data for the study area has been chosen based on the
literatures available for different category of land cover while it is very subjective and depends
upon the soil and terrain profile. Flow data for unsteady analysis has been taken as the observed
data at gauging site while a good flood modelling requires flood hydrograph corresponding to
Page 13
severest metrological conditions. Further, cross-sections have been edited using RAS-mapper
by analysing DEM data which might have some error and thus model may show significant
deviation from the actual scenario.
Acknowledgements
We thank Dr. Shivam Tripathi, Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Kanpur,
for providing technical support and computational resources during the entire work. We thank
WRIS-India and Central Water Commission (CWC) for providing the discharge and stage data
to conduct the present study. We also thank USGS for providing the Digital elevation and Land
cover data for the study site.
References
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Concepts and Challenges. Flood Risk Management in Europe, 231–251.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4200-3_13
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Page 14
December 22 -24, 2022
Addressing the Characteristic Length Enigma in Non-linear Filtration

Through Granular Porous Media.
Ashes Banerjee1, Srinivas Pasupuleti 2, Mritunjay Kumar Singh3

1
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Alliance College of Engineering
and Design, Alliance University, Anekal, Karnataka 562106, India;
Email: ashes742@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian
School of Mines), Dhanbad-826004, Jharkhand, India,
Email: srinivas@iitism.ac.in
3
Professor, Dept. of Mathematics and Computing, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian
School of Mines), Dhanbad-826004, Jharkhand, India,
Email: drmks29@iitism.ac.in
Abstract
Defining characteristic length in porous media has remained a difficult undertaking over the years.
Going by the definition, characteristic length in porous media depends on the size and geometry of the
pores. However, the uncertainty associated with the size and shape of the pore channels is the reason
why the fundamental hydrodynamic laws cannot be applied directly to model flows in porous media.
A proper physical interpretation of the pore channels is extremely difficult due to the pore’s intricate
interconnections and dimensions. As a result, attempts were made to model the flow using easily
measurable parameters such as particle size and porosity as the characteristic length. However, the
results of these studies vary from packing to packing, and thus their applicability is limited. To add
further complication, the size and orientation of the pores in a porous packing with homogeneous
media can depend on a variety of factors, including size, shape, surface roughness of the media,
packing porosity, etc. The conventional method considers a single parameter mostly media size and
thereby disregards all other parameters that can have a significant effect on flow properties. However,
definition of characteristic length should be chosen with care and must contain as many of these
parameters as possible. The present study compares the various characteristic length definitions
reported in the literature through the performances of their corresponding Reynolds number
definition. Outcomes from this study indicates that the characteristic length definitions which account
for both media size and porosity are more applicable for modeling flow in porous media. It was also
observed that the prediction accuracy of matrix properties such as hydraulic conductivity enhances
greatly when compared against characteristic length definition that contains both media size and
porosity.
Keywords: Non-linear filtration, Darcy’s law, Porous media, hydraulic gradient, Discharge
Velocity
1 Introduction:
Flow through porous media has remained fascinating and equally challenging to understand
even after almost two century since the fundamental relationship developed by Henry Darcy
in 1856. The crux of the problem lies in understanding and defining pore size which is the
characteristic length in case of flow through porous media (Banerjee et al., 2018a). However,
the measurement of pore size is quite difficult even in case of controlled laboratory
experiments. This is due to the randomness of the pore size and their distribution in porous
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packing. Like pipe flow, proper understanding about the measurement of characteristic length
is crucial in porous media. This is because both flow transition in porous media and pressure
drop depends on the definition of characteristic length.
It has been concluded by several researchers that the Darcy’s linear relationship can explain
flow in porous media till a certain velocity range (Banerjee et al., 2021; Dan et al., 2016;
Dudgeon, 1967). Beyond this range the relationship between velocity and gradient of
hydraulic head follows a binomial or power law type trend (Banerjee et al., 2018b). This type
of flows has been referred by various nomenclature in the literature such as “high velocity
flows”, “non-Darcy flows”, “post laminar flows” etc. (Firoozabadi and Katz, 1979;
Hassanizadeh and Gray, 1987). It is needless to say the relationship between velocity and
gradient of hydraulic head is crucial for researchers, and planners dealing with a wide range
of applications including flow through rockfill dams (Curtis and Lawson, 1967; Ferdos et al.,
2015; Hansen, 1992; Parkin et al., 1966; Sedghi-Asl et al., 2013; Shih, 1991; Siddiqua et al.,
2011), flow through water filters, discharge estimation in aquifers, oil and gas wells (Fang
and Zhu, 2018; Holditch and Morse, 1976; Houben et al., 2018; Vincent et al., 1999), water
inrush in coal mines etc. Since the relationship depends on flow regime, therefore,
identification of flow regime is a prerequisite for any type of analysis or design of porous
system. However, identification of flow transition from Darcy’s regime to non-Darcy regime
has remained an enigma for the researchers till date.
Reynolds number (Re), defined as the ratio between inertia force and viscous force, has been
mostly used to distinguish among different regimes of flow. However, there have been
several definition of Reynolds numbers proposed in the literature (Bear, 1972; Kovacs,
1971). The crux of the problem lies in the definition of characteristic length and characteristic
velocity. In pipe flow, characteristic length dimension is pipe diameter; in channel flow it is
depth of flow and distance from the leading edge is the characteristic length in boundary
layer problems. On similar lines, size of the pore must be characteristic linear dimension in
porous media flow. However, geometry of the pore is very complex and is not easily
adaptable to mathematical modelling, as it is influenced by particle size (Huang and Ayoub,
2008; Nezhad et al., 2019; Salahi et al., 2015; van Lopik et al., 2020), porosity (Dan et al.,
2016), shape and surface roughness, convergent angle (Banerjee and Pasupuleti, 2019; Reddy
and Rao, 2004; Reddy, 2006, 2005; Thiruvengadam and Kumar, 1997) etc. Thus, various
forms of expressions have come into use for computing Reynolds number (Kovacs, 1971).
These definitions mostly differ due to the definition of the characteristic length and can be
classified into three primary categories.
The first category considers media diameter as the characteristic length (Andrade Jr et al.,
1999; Blick and Civan, 1988; Bu et al., 2014; Fourar et al., 2004; Green Jr and Duwez, 1951;
Horton and Pokrajac, 2009; Jolls and Hanratty, 1966; Latifi et al., 1989; Lesage et al., 2004;
Rode et al., 1994; Wegner et al., 1971). It is easy to calculate and therefore convenient for the
researchers and designers to use as characteristic length. However, the diameter of media
does not accurately represent the pore size, therefore the obtained results are not widely
applicable. Therefore, efforts were made to improve the characteristic length definition
through incorporating factors.
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The second category attempts to represent the effect of pore size and geometry through
hydraulic conductivity (Beavers and Sparrow, 1969; Berg, 2014) or intrinsic permeability
(Carman, 1937; Kovacs, 1971; Ward, 1964). Several models have been developed for
expressing permeability in terms of media and packing properties (Glover et al., 2006; Glover
and Walker, 2009; Johnson et al., 1986; Johnson and Sen, 1988; Katz and Thompson, 1987,
1986; Schwartz et al., 1989) According to the Darcy’s law, permeability can be considered as
a function of the aperture available for the flow to take place and the connectedness of the
packing (Glover and Walker, 2009). Though there are several researchers who supports the
applicability of permeability characteristic length; it is just another estimation of the pore
geometry and can vary with factors such as interlinking of the pores and tortuosity etc.
(Walker and Glover, 2010).
The third category considers the pore size as a function of measurable packing and media
properties such as media size, porosity, shape factor (Ergun, 1952; Kovacs, 1971; Niven,
2002). There have been several representations attempted in the literature through hydraulic
diameter (Takatsu and Masuoka, 2005), throat diameter, pore diameter(Seguin et al., 1998),
pore throat radius (Thauvin and Mohanty, 1998), strut diameter etc. Some cases in order to
enhance the degree of freedom tortuosity is also added in the expression (Comiti et al., 2000;
Wahyudi et al., 2002). However, these definitions are often difficult to use in case of a real
porous packing due to the randomness of pore size distribution across the packing.
Various definitions of characteristic lengths results in different expression of Reynolds

number. As the expression of Reynolds number itself varies, the limit of critical Reynolds
numbers also varies widely with its expression (Andrade Jr et al., 1999; Bu et al., 2015, 2015;
Hellström and Lundström, 2006; Zeng and Grigg, 2006). Further, the characteristic length
definitions proposed in the research were mostly validated in a specific experimental set up.
Therefore, applicability of these models is very much limited. The application of these
definitions has never been tested for wide range of dataset across different set-up. However,
in order to enhance the applicability of these definitions and their limiting values, it is
imperative to check their applicability for wide range of data.
The present study attempts to evaluate the performance of three different categories of
characteristic lengths which has been used in the literature. The most widely used expression
of characteristic length out of these categories have been selected in the present study. The
outcomes from the study can aid the designers and researchers to identify the best expression
for the characteristic length. Further research work can be taken up based on this finding to
understand and model the flow characteristics in porous packing.
2 Materials and Methods:
Characteristic lengths play a crucial role in determining the flow characteristic in all type of
flows. Determination of characteristic length in case of pipe flow or open channel flow is
considerably simple. However, in case of porous media it is quite challenging to measure or
even model this parameter. It is due to randomness associated with the pore sizes and its
geometry. Each porous packing contains numerous pores of various size and shape. Further
they are oriented in extremely complex and random manner. Therefore, getting a direct
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measurement of the pore size is almost impossible in case of porous media. Therefore, efforts
were made in the literature to estimate this property through measurable parameters. The
present study attempts to evaluate the performance of these definitions through the
expression of Reynolds number. Reynolds number can be expressed (Banerjee et al., 2019;
Burcharth and Christensen, 1991; Thiruvengadam and Kumar, 1997) as
VC LC
Re = (1)

where Vc, Lc and ν is defined as characteristic length, characteristic velocity and kinematic
viscosity. The Reynolds number expressions using the various characteristic length
definitions were compared with a reference Reynolds number (Eq. 2) to find the best
performing expression among the available options.
Vb d
Reb = (2)

where Reb is considered as the reference Reynolds number with Vb as the bulk velocity, d as
the volume diameter of the media. Based on statistical and graphical analysis, the best model
for the characteristic length was selected. Table 1 presents different forms of characteristic
linear dimension, characteristic velocity and Reynolds number used in the represent study.
Table 1: Different forms of VC, LC and Re
Characteristic Characteristic Length

Sl. No Proposed by Reynolds Number (Re)
Velocity (VC) (LC)
Ward (Ward, Vb
1 Vb k0 ReW = k0
1964) 
Kovacs(Kovacs, Vb k0 Vb k0
2 80 Re K = 80
1971) n n  n3
Kozeny – Vb k0 k0 Vb 1 - n
3 Carman 5 (1 − n )  Re K -C = 5 
(Carman, 1937) n n3 n3  n
Vb nd V d
4 Ergun, (1952) Re E = b
n (1 − n) (1 − n) 
n d Vb  n  d
5 Present Study Vb Re R =
(1 − n)   (1 − n)   
2.1 Collection and Compilation of the Dataset:
One of the biggest issues with empirical model in porous media is their applicability outside
the specific experimental conditions. In order to avoid such experimental bias, a combined
dataset was used in the present study collected from the literature. The study presently
focuses only on regular shaped materials (glass sphere) to avoid the complexities arising from
the irregular shape of the materials. The volume diameter and porosity of the different regular
shaped materials used in the study are presented in Table: 2. The reference Reynolds number
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used in the present study was calculated using the volume diameter, kinematic viscosity and
velocity reported in these studies.
Table 2: Characteristics of media used
Volume Porosity Volume Porosity Volume Porosity

Diameter (mm) (%) Diameter (mm) (%) Diameter (mm) (%)
3.25 0.49 33.42 0.53 3.80 0.30
4.73 0.47 17.51 0.47 20.00 0.43
10.26 0.48 25.46 0.52 5.80 0.49
11.64 0.44 33.42 0.54 16.70 0.59
13.10 0.43 14.60 0.44 7.80 0.51
39.50 0.48 17.50 0.42 9.00 0.46
1.40 0.48 28.37 0.43 12.30 0.47
2.15 0.59 16.00 0.50 20.00 0.56
18.03 0.42 15.41 0.42 35.00 0.54
Most of studies that attempt to understand the non-linear filtration process in porous media
begins with the assumption that Darcy’s linear model is not valid for their range of
experimentation. Therefore, it is very difficult to get the values of permeability from the
reports of non-linear filtration study. Therefore, the reported result by Thiruvengadam and
Kumar, (1997) was plotted in (Fig. 1 (a)) to prepare a working relation between volume
diameter and hydraulic conductivity of the medium (Eq.3).
K = 6523.7d2 + 15.135d; R2=0.959 (3)
where, K is defined as hydraulic conductivity (m/s) and d is defined as dimeter of the particle
(m). However, it was observed that hydraulic conductivity represents a stronger relationship
with hydraulic radius (Fig. 1(b)) compared to diameter of the packing (Eq.4).
K = 121438r2 + 376.96r; R² = 0.991 (4)
where r represents the hydraulic radius of the media (m). The Eq. (4) was used in the present
study to calculate the values of K for different media size and porosity. Finally using the
values of hydraulic conductivity, intrinsic permeability was calculated using Eq. (5)
K
k0 = (5)
g
where k0 is the intrinsic permeability (m2), K is hydraulic conductivity (m/s), ν is the
kinematic viscosity (m2/s), and g is the acceleration due to gravity (m/s2).
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10 10
Hydraulic Conducitivity
Hydraulic Conducitivity
8 8
6 6
(m/s)
(m/s)
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 0 0.0025 0.005 0.0075
Diameter (m) Hydraulic radius (m)
Fig.1 Variation of Hydraulic conductivity with (a) Diameter (b) Hydraulic radius
2.2 Reliability:
Reliability of the present investigation is ascertained by plotting the relationship between

reference Reynolds number with the friction factor as reported by various researchers
(Dudgeon, 1967; Jayachandra, 2006; Venkataraman and Rao, 1998). The friction factor (λ)
was calculated using Eq. (6) and reference Reynolds number was calculated using Eq. (2).
igd
= (6)
V2
where i is hydraulic gradient, d is the volume diameter (m) of the media and V is the
superficial velocity (m/s) through the packing. The relationship between λ and Re for the
collected media size is presented in Fig. 2. The nature of the plots were found to be similar
to the plots reported in the literature (Dudgeon, 1967; Jayachandra, 2006; Venkataraman
and Rao, 1998) thus ascertaining the reliability of the present experimentation.
250 800
15.41 mm 16 mm
Friction factor
Friction factor
200
600
150
400
100
200
50
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Reynolds Number Reynolds Number
(a) (b)
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40 40
16.7 mm 17.51 mm
Friction factor
30 30
Friction factor
20 20
10 10
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
(c) (d)
40 35
18.03 mm 20 mm
Friction factor 30
30 25
Friction factor
20
20
15
10 10
5
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
(e) (f)
11 300
25.46 mm 28.37 mm
10.5 250
Friction factor
Friction factor
10 200
9.5 150
9 100
8.5 50
8 0
500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500 2000
(g) (h)
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20 20
33.42 mm 35 mm
Friction factor
15 15
Friction factor
10 10
5 5
0 0
0 250 500 750 1000 0 2500 5000 7500 10000
(i) (j)
Fig.2 Variation of Friction factor with Reynolds number for glass spheres of (a) 15.41 mm
(b) 16 mm (c) 16.7 mm (d) 17.51 mm (e)18.03 mm (f) 20 mm (g) 25.46 mm (h) 28.37 mm
(i)33.42 mm (j) 35 mm
3 Result Analysis and Discussion:
Before discussing the results from the study, it is important to state the assumptions that
were made in the study
a. Flow is single phase, steady and one dimensional.
b. Porosity of medium is uniform, and the medium is homogeneous as well as inert.
The Reynolds number values calculated using the characteristic length definition presented
in Table. 1 was compared against the reference Reynolds number to identify the best
characteristic length definition among them. The results obtained from the analysis is
discussed in the following section.
3.1 Comparison of Reynolds numbers:

The performance of three categories of characteristic length definition has been evaluated in
the present study. The first type attempts to define characteristic length using the value of
intrinsic permeability of the packing. The intrinsic permeability is often considered to be a
representation of the matrix properties. Therefore, serval researchers have considered it as a
representation of pore size. The present study investigates three definition of characteristic
length provided by Ward (Ward, 1964), Kozeny-Carman (Carman, 1937) and Kovacs
(Kovacs, 1971).
The Reynolds numbers corresponding to each definition of characteristic length were
calculated. The relationship of these Reynolds number definitions with the reference
Reynolds number (Eq. 2) was analyzed graphically (Fig. 3(a-c)) and statistically (Table 3).
Page 8
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250 9000
y = 0.0217x
Reynolds Number (Ward)
y = 0.9422x
(Kozeny – Carman)
R² = 0.9143 7500
200 R² = 0.8975
Reynolds Number
6000
150
4500
100
3000
50 1500
0 0
0 5000 10000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Reynolds number (reference) Reynolds number (reference)
(a) (b)
16000
Reynolds Number
y = 1.3047x
12000 R² = 0.9823
(Kovacs)
8000
4000
0
0 2500 5000 7500 10000
Reynolds number (reference)
(c)
Fig.3 Variation of Reynolds number definitions using characteristic length proposed by (a)
Ward (b) Kozeny-Carman (c) Kovacs with the reference Reynolds number
Table 3: Statistical analysis of various definition of characteristic length
Ward Kozeny – Carman Kovacs Ergun hydraulic radius

SD 0.174 0.185 0.175 0.175 0.174
SE 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.006
NSE 0.922 0.905 0.968 0.968 0.968
The Reynolds number definition proposed by Kozeny-Carman indicates maximum scattering

k
when compared with the reference Reynolds number. The definition uses 5 03 (1 − n )  as
n
the characteristic length. However, it can be clearly understood from Figure 3(b) that the
characteristic length and velocity does not capture all the variables in the system which
results in the scattering of the dataset.
The Reynolds number definitions proposed by Ward, (1964) and Kovacs, (1971) provides a
much better co-relation compared to the definition proposed by Kozeny-Carman. The
definitions proposed by both Kovacs and Kozeny-Carman uses pore velocity as
characteristic velocity. However, the performance of Kovacs definition is much better
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compared to Kozeny-Carman. The Reynolds number definition proposed by Ward used k0

k0
as the characteristic length, whereas a similar definition 80 was used by Kovacs.
n
The intrinsic permeability accounts for the properties of the porous media matrix. Therefore,
incorporating factors such as void ratio and shape factor again in the model may become
counterproductive. This may be the reason for higher degree of scattering observed in
Kozeny-Carman equation. Though the R2 values obtained from Kovacs and Ward are
satisfactory still it can be observed that the deviation is significant when the experimental set
up is altered. Further the calculation of intrinsic permeability itself is a challenging
undertaking and require elaborate experimental program.
The present study therefore investigated the performance of several other definitions of
Reynolds number which does not include intrinsic permeability as characteristic length. The
Reynolds number using Ergun’s definition of characteristic length and hydraulic radius as
characteristic length proposed by Carman, (1937) was plotted against the reference Reynolds
number in Fig.4. Interestingly both Reynolds numbers represents similar accuracy (R2
=0.98) when fitted against the reference Reynolds number. Further the degree of scattering is
also reduced significantly compared to the Reynolds number definitions proposed by
Kozeny-Carman (Carman, 1937) and Ward, (1964). The statistical parameters presented in
Table 3 indicates the performance of Reynolds numbers definitions proposed by Kovacs
(1971), Ergun (1952) and in the present study are identical. The characteristic length
definition by Kovacs contains intrinsic permeability as the characteristic length. Therefore, it
can very much useful to analyze the flow in natural systems where estimation of separate
packing properties is extremely difficult. In case of synthetic porous media used for
laboratory experimentation or industrial application Ergun’s definition or hydraulic radius is
more suitable.
20000 4000
y = 1.9571x y = 0.3262x
Reynolds Number
(Hydraulic Radius)
Reynolds Number
16000 R² = 0.9823 R² = 0.9823

3000
(Ergun)
12000
2000
8000
1000
4000
0 0
0 2500 5000 7500 10000 0 2500 5000 7500 10000
Reynolds number (reference) Reynolds number (reference)
(a) (b)
Fig. 4 Variation of Reynolds number definitions with (a) characteristic length proposed by
Ergun (b) Hydraulic Radius as characteristic length with the reference Reynolds number
The study only presents a comparative analysis between the most utilized characteristic
length definitions used in the literature. However, all these characteristic length definitions
proposed in the study are estimates only. In case of flow through porous media, the accurate
measurement of characteristic length is pore size. Therefore, efforts need to be made to
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identify ways so that the pore size and its geometry can be presented with maximum
accuracy.
4 Conclusions:
The study attempts to investigate the performance of various definitions of characteristic
length proposed in the literature. The definition of characteristic lengths proposed in the
literature can be broadly classified in to two groups. The first group attempts to incorporate
the effect of porous media through intrinsic permeability. The second group attempts to use
various media and packing properties to estimate the characteristic length. In order to
understand the accuracy of these characteristic length dimensions, different expressions for
Reynolds numbers using these characteristic lengths were compared with a reference
Reynolds number (Re b). Relationship between individual Reynolds numbers with reference
Reynolds number is analyzed graphically and statistically.
It was observed that intrinsic permeability is very much capable to represent the characteristic
length. However, adding matrix properties such as void ratio in the definition with intrinsic
permeability can be counterproductive. This parameter can be used as characteristic length
for natural porous media where estimating individual packing properties can be difficult.
The Reynolds number defined using Ergun’s definition of characteristic length and hydraulic
radius as characteristic length also present similar degree of applicability. These models
attempt to define characteristic length through a combination of individual packing and
media properties such as media size, porosity, shape factor etc. Therefore, these models can
be used in case of synthetic porous media used for laboratory experimentation or industrial
application Ergun’s definition or hydraulic radius is more suitable.
The present study only attempts to present a comparative analysis between the different
characteristic length definitions which are frequently used by researchers. Most of these
definitions are only estimates of the pore size, which is considered to be the actual
characteristic length for flow in porous media. Therefore, efforts should be made by
researchers to identify ways of accurate.
5 Conflicts of Interest:
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
6 Acknowledgements:
Authors wish to thank the authorities of Indian Institute of Technology (ISM), Dhanbad and
Alliance University Bangalore for providing necessary facilities and extending support for
carrying out the research work.
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Structural countermeasures for local scour around the bridge pier: A

Review
Rahul Bharadwaj 1, Lav Kumar Gupta2, Manish Pandey3
1
PG Student, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Warangal,
Warangal, India – 506004; Email: rmce21407@student.nitw.ac.in
2
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology
Warangal, Warangal, India – 506004; Email: lkumar@student.nitw.ac.in
3
Warangal, Warangal – 506004; E-mail: mpandey@nitw.ac.in
Abstract
Scouring around hydraulic structures such as bridge piers, abutments, spur dikes, caisson
foundations, etc., is a global problem because it affects the safety of structures, causing loss of
lives and the economy resulting in political consequences. More than 60% of bridges fail due
to flooding and scouring around them. Scouring is a problem that is not always foreseeable at
the design stage but emerges later. Due to the potential devastation and public safety concern
associated with the scouring, a retrofit solution is something that is essential. The
countermeasures for local scour are extremely beneficial as they can be installed to solve an
existing scour problem or prevent future scour problems. This paper critically reviews
structural countermeasures, especially pier geometry modifications such as pier shape, pier
texture, slot and collar. It is observed that the collar as a countermeasure is the most effective
and active area of research. Lenticular pier showed more efficiency of 66.67%, followed by the
trapezoidal nosed pier, triangular nosed pier and oblong pier with efficiencies of 59.85%,
46.21% and 28.79%, respectively, compared to the rectangular pier. Surface texture for pier
reduces scour by 30% only. Pier slot reduces scour by 30%, whereas the sigma slot is more
efficient than a parallel slot, T-slot and Y-slot. The collar can be hooked with different shapes
such as circular, rectangular, hexagonal, octagonal and airfoil shaped. Collar fixed on the bed
elevation with its size varying from 2 to 3 times the pier diameter gives better efficiency.
Keywords: Local scour, Countermeasures, Slot, Collar
1. Introduction
Designing and building bridges has always been a complex process, especially spanning over
water. A large majority of bridges in the U.S., approximately 83% of the 583,000 bridges
recorded in the U.S. National Bridge Inventory (NBI) in 2007, are constructed over water
(Lagasse, 2007). It is unavoidable to place piers within the water in many situations due to the
distances being spanned, which subjects the bridge to a major failure mechanism known as
scouring. Scour is the erosion of bed material around the bridge piers due to flowing water
(Arneson et al., 2012). This is problematic because the foundations can become undermined,
jeopardizing the bridge's structural integrity. This creates a concern for infrastructure and
public safety. Also, scour has led to 60% of the bridge failures in the U.S. (Lagasse, 2007). Of
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the 500 bridges mentioned, 31 were deemed unsafe and required rebuilding, as scour reached
depths between 4 to 6 m (Arneson et al., 2012). It is evident that scour is a widespread problem,
and it has proven, through many incidents, to cause a large quantity of damage.
In the transportation system, bridges constitute an essential part. Bridges are required where
roads and railways cross waterways. Piers on which the deck of these bridges rests play a vital
role in their stability and safety. These piers often resist loads coming on them with the help of
the friction between themselves and the soil around them. The frictional force depends on the
contact area between the pier and the soil. For a given pier, the contact area depends on the
grip length of the pier below the river bed. In the case of alluvial rivers, the grip length is to be
reckoned not from the original bed of the river but the scoured bed around the pier.
Scour countermeasures are defined by the Hydraulic Engineering Circular No. 23 (HEC23) as
the methods designed to prevent, delay, or reduce scour severity (Lagasse et al., 2009). There
are numerous countermeasures used today. Each one is unique as they have their own
advantages and disadvantages. This makes choosing a countermeasure challenging. Therefore,
the need for further research into the scouring countermeasures is crucial.
1.1 Causes of bridge failure
Natural factors like floods, scouring, earthquakes, landslides, debris flow, hurricanes, wind and
human factors like imperfect design or construction method, vehicle overloading, fire
accidents, terrorist attacks and improper maintenance make pier fail to result in bridge collapse
(Deng et al., 2016). Between 1989 to 2000, out of 500 bridges analyzed in the United States,
53% of failures were attributed to floods and scour (Wardhana et al., 2003). Scouring around
the bridge piers by the stream is the main contributing factor to bridge failure (Wang et al.,
2017). From Figure 1, almost 50% of bridge failures are attributed to floods and scouring.
Figure 1 Major factors attributing to the failure of the bridges (Wardhana et al., 2003)
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1.2 Classification of scouring
Scouring can be classified as general scour, contraction scour and local scour. General scour is
the result of the change in river characteristics. It is short-term if scouring is caused due to a
single flood, bedform migration and a shift in meandering stream or long-term if scouring is
caused due to land use and climatic changes. Contraction scour is caused by the accelerated
flow due to a reduction in channel width. Local scour occurs due to structural obstruction along
the flow path, creating a scour hole around that structure. In live bed condition, bed material
gets transported from upstream and in clear water condition, bed material transported from
upstream is negligible. As live bed condition comprises alternate erosion and deposition, its
cyclic nature can be seen in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Temporal variation depicting live bed and clear water conditions (Brandimarte et al.,
2012)
1.3 Mechanism of scouring
Pier obstruction makes velocity zero at the vertical face of the pier creating a stagnation
pressure. Due to the pressure gradient, downflow is developed which is directed downwards.
The diving force of the downflow creates a scour hole. Water takes a helical path in the scour
hole resulting in the formation of a horseshoe vortex which moves downstream resulting in
flow separation. On the downstream of the obstruction, wake vortices are created due to the
suction effect which keeps sediment suspended in the stream. A bow wave is created adjacent
to the pier at the free surface on downstream rotating in the opposite direction of the horseshoe
vortex and has a minimal role in scour process.
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Figure 3 Scouring mechanism around the pier (Gazi & Afzal, 2020)
2. Structural countermeasures
The countermeasures against pier scour can be flow-altering and bed-armoring. Structural
countermeasures are of flow-altering type and can be divided into two categories depending on
which part of the pier is being altered. Foundation strengthening pertains to the portion of the
pier below the riverbed, whereas pier geometry modifications, pier texture, slots and collars
pertain to the portion of the pier above the riverbed which is where the main focus is levied in
this review.
Flow-altering countermeasures decrease the intensity of the downflow and the horseshoe
vortices. Bed-armoring countermeasures provide a physical barrier for the bed against the pier
scour (Tafarojnoruz et al., 2012).
2.1 Pier shape modifications
Vijayasree et al., (2019) conducted experiments using sand with mean grain size of 0.8 mm
and flow intensities ranging from 0.94 to 0.55 with rectangular, oblong, trapezoidal, triangular
and lenticular piers.
Table 1 Effect of pier shape modifications on maximum scour depth for flow intensity of 0.94
Efficiency
Volume
Maximum Time for with
Shape of Length Width of
scour equilibrium respect to
pier (m) (m) scour
depth (m) (hrs) rectangular
(m3)
pier (%)
Rectangular 0.15 0.03 0.068 4 0.0114 -
Oblong 0.15 0.03 0.047 2.5 0.0073 28.79
Trapezoidal 0.15 0.09 0.0265 1.2 0.0049 59.85
Triangular 0.15 0.03 0.0355 1.5 0.0067 46.21
Lenticular 0.15 0.03 0.022 1 0.0045 66.67
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From Table 1, it is observed that lenticular and trapezoidal are efficient in minimizing scour
depth and scour volume.
Al-Shukur & Obeid, (2016) conducted experiments with different shaped piers and reported
that stream-lined, hexagonal and sharp nose shaped piers gave lesser scour depths than
elliptical, octagonal, Joukowsky and chamfer shaped piers.
2.2 Pier texture
Threading is wrapping the cable around the pier helically. It was proposed by Dey et al., (2006).
Threading creates a frictional surface on the face of the pier which reduces the downflow
potential and part of the horseshoe vortices are diverted resulting in scour reduction. Number
of threading, threading angle (αt) and cable diameter (dt) are the influencing factors for scour
reduction. Dey et al., (2006) suggested the best combination for maximum scour reduction of
46.3% for the triple threading, αt = 15o and dt = 2cm under monochromatic waves and a steady
current. Decreasing threading angle and increasing number of threading as shown in Figure 4,
may yield higher efficiencies.
Figure 4 (a) Single, (b) Double and (c) Triple threading around the pier (Tafarojnoruz et al.,
2012)
Gris, (2010) used a specially designed sheath around a pier. It has directional rugosity in front
of collar which creates inclined vortices, diminishing the intensity of downflow. The non-
directional rugosity in the rest of the surface with golf ball like projections create turbulence
thereby decreasing the intensity of wake vortices. Maximum scour is reduced by 30%.
Figure 5 Artificial sheath around the pier (Gris et al., 2010)
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2.3 Slots
Pier slot is a vertical cut made on the downstream face of the pier. It directs the downflow away
from the bed reducing its scour potential and decreases the intensity of horseshoe vortex
(Bestawy et al., 2020). Factors affecting the slot’s efficiency are slot width (ws), length (L) and
sinking depth (d) and the best possible combination with average scour reduction of 30% is
ws/b = 1/4, zs/h = 1/3 where when b = diameter of the pier and h = depth of water (h) (Grimaldi
et al., 2009). The scour depth decreases as the slot length increases (Moncada-M et al., 2009).
Bestawy et al., (2020) experimented with parallel slot, Y-slot, T-slot and sigma slot and
obtained scour reduction efficiencies of 22%, 47.5%, 50.8%, 59.3% respectively. There are
practical limitations for it as creation of slots for already existing piers is almost not possible
(Kumar et al.,1999).
(a) (b)
Figure 6 (a) Arrangement of slots, (b) Types of slots
2.4 Collars
Collars are generally flat circular plates fixed around a pier while a hooked collar is projected
upwards along its circumference. The collar takes a downflow impact if it is placed at the bed
level. Width of the collar (wc), distance from free surface (dc), thickness of collar (tc) affects its
efficiency in scour reduction. Tafarojnoruz et al., (2012) obtained maximum scour reduction
of 28.7% with wc = 3b and dc = h where b = diameter of pier and h = water depth. Jahangirzadeh
et al., (2014) conducted laboratory experiments and numerical modelling (SSIM-Sediment
simulation in intakes with multiblock) was done for circular and rectangular collars around a
circular pier of 3cm diameter (b). Scour reduction by circular & rectangular collars is 69.8%
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and 77.5% respectively for experimental and 71.5% and 79.2% respectively for numerical
simulations. These results were achieved in all the cases with both the collars placed 0.15mm
below the bed level with collar width 𝑤𝑐 = 3.5b. Chen et al., (2018) conducted laboratory
experiments with a single hook and numerical tests by Flow 3D with double hook using collar
widths of 1.25 b & hook height of 0.25b where b = pier diameter. Pier with a single hooked
collar placed on the bed reduced scouring by 42% and a pier with a double hooked collar placed
on the bed reduced scouring by 50%. Memar et al., (2020) used two circular collars in tandem
as shown in Figure 7. Maximum scour depth reduction occurred for collar width 𝑤𝑐 = 3b and
spacing between upstream and downstream as 3b with both the collars in tandem placed on the
bed. Equilibrium scour depth reduction at upstream and downstream piers is 74.13% and 71.5%
respectively. Pandey et al., (2022) obtained a maximum scour depth reduction of 41.3% for
collar width 𝑤𝑐 = 1.5b for 𝑑50 = 0.4 mm and 26.4% for collar width 𝑤𝑐 = 2.3b for 𝑑50 = 0.27
mm and collar placed on bed in both the cases. Maximum scour depth reduction occurred for
the collar widths of 1.5b ≤ 𝑤𝑐 ≤2.5b. Farooq et al., (2022) used a plain lenticular collar for a
pier with lenticular cross-section with collar width as 3b. It yielded maximum scour depth as
37%. Use of hooked lenticular collar as shown in Figure 8, with hook height 0.3b and collar
width 2b located at the bed level attained the scour reduction efficiency of 60.2%.
Figure 7 Circular collars in tandem arrangement (Memar et al., 2020)
Figure 8 Lenticular hooked collar (Farooq et al., 2022)
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3. Experiments conducted with airfoil-shaped collar
The experiments were conducted in the Fluid Mechanics laboratory of the Civil Engineering
Department at NIT Warangal, Telangana, India. The flume is 10.3 m in length, 0.8 m in width
and 0.4 m in depth. The flume has a working section of 2.3 x 0.8x 0.3 m. This study uses
uniform sediment of average particle diameter (𝑑50 ) 0.32 mm with a geometric standard
deviation (σg) of 1.30 and pier diameter (b) of 6 cm, which is placed perpendicular to the flow
at the center of the working section.
The airfoil-shaped collar having a diameter (bc) of 2b and a length (lc) of 4b is used with a
thickness of 4 mm as shown in Figure 9. It is fixed at four locations, i.e., bed level and y/4, y/2,
3y/4 above the bed level where y is the depth of flow kept as constant of 10 cm throughout the
experimental runs. All the experimental runs were conducted under clear water conditions with
a flow intensity of 95%.
Figure 9 Description of airfoil collar
From Figure 10, it can be observed that without airfoil collar, maximum scour depth is 8.1 cm
and with airfoil at various locations, i.e., bed level and y/4, y/2, 3y/4 above the bed level,
maximum scour depth is 0.8 cm. 3.3 cm, 4.3 cm and 6.5 cm respectively. As the location of
the airfoil above the bed level increases, scour depth also increases. Less scour is observed
when the airfoil is on the bed level which gives 90.12% scour reduction.
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Figure 10 Temporal variation of scour depth for different elevations of airfoil collar above
the bed level
4. Conclusions
Structural countermeasures are an approach which alter only the pier itself to reduce scour or
increase the pier’s stability. From the above discussion, following can be concluded:
(i) Structural countermeasures minimize the scouring by increasing the structural stability
and decreasing the intensity of horseshoe vortices.
(ii) Out of the structural countermeasures discussed above, collars are found to be efficient
and practically feasible.
(iii) Sigma slot showed more efficiency than parallel, T and Y slots.
(iv) Under clear water conditions, airfoil, lenticular and hooked collars can have higher scour
reduction efficiencies located on the bed level.
(v) Lenticular pier showed 66.67% and airfoil collar showed 90.12% efficiency in scour
reduction.
(vi) There are specific conditions like oblique and debris flows, live bed condition which limit
and restrict the collar efficiency.
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Temporal Evolution of Pressure-flow Scour due to Vertical Contraction

Sofi Aamir Majid1 and Shivam Tripathi1
1
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur – 208016
E-mail: aamirm@iitk.ac.in
Abstract
The vertical contraction of the flow occurs when the water level in the river rises above the
bottom chord of the bridge. The flow inside the vertical contraction is driven by the pressure
gradient existing between the upstream and the downstream end of the contraction. The
transition of the flow from open channel flow to pressure flow is accompanied with the
modification of the flow velocity characteristics. The increased bed shear stresses inside the
contraction increase the scour already present inside the contraction or may initiate scour on a
previously non-eroded bed. Numerous studies have established empirical relations between the
magnitude of pressure-flow scour, flow properties and geometry and bed characteristics.
However, only a few studies have reported the temporal evolution of the pressure-flow scour.
In the present study, long duration laboratory experiments on pressure-flow scour are carried
out to study its temporal evolution. The centerline scour profile is recorded using a side
mounted camera and a laser. The temporal evolution is compared with the models available in
the literature. In addition, the scour profile is studied as a function of time and the equilibrium
scour profile is compared with the previously published model.
Keywords: Vertical contraction, Pressure flow, Equilibrium scour, Equilibrium time
1. Introduction
Bridge foundation failure due to scouring is one of the major reasons for the bridge failure.
Therefore, estimation of scouring is an important prerequisite in the design of bridges.
Scouring, defined as the removal of bed sediment, can occur because of local flow obstruction
like a bridge pier or abutment or due to flow contraction. Contraction of flow can either be
horizontal or vertical. Horizontal contraction scour occurs due when the waterway is contracted
laterally due to the presence of bridge structures. On the other hand, vertical contraction occurs
when the upstream water level in the channel rises above the bottom chord of the bridge. The
flow is forced to accelerate inside the contraction which increases the scouring potential of the
flow.
A schematic of vertical contraction is shown is Figure (1b). The upstream flow depth, 𝐻𝑎 ,
having a depth averaged velocity, 𝑉, is contracted vertically at the bridge site. Due to the
presence of the bridge of streamwise length, 𝐿, the vertical flow passage decreases to 𝐻𝑏 and
the average velocity inside the contraction increases to 𝑉𝑏 . The amount of contraction, 𝐻, is
given by 𝐻 = 𝐻𝑎 − 𝐻𝑏 . Besides, unlike open channel flow, as free surface is absent, pressure
flow exists inside the contraction. Due to the flow acceleration, the flow field is modified inside
the contraction with increased velocity gradients close to the bed which leads to pressure-flow
scour, 𝑦𝑚𝑒 . Unlike other forms of scouring which have been studied extensively, pressure-flow
Page 1
scour has received less focus and only a handful of studies have investigated this problem
(Arneson and Abt, 1998; Umbrell et al., 1998; Shan et al., 2012; Kocyigit and Karakurt, 2019).
These studies have mainly focused on the investigation of equilibrium scour depth, 𝑦𝑚𝑒 , as a
function of bed and flow properties, and flow geometry. The flow properties include the
approach velocity, 𝑉𝑎 , and approach flow depth, 𝐻𝑎 , the bed properties include the mean
sediment size, 𝐷50 , and the flow geometry include the bridge opening, 𝐻𝑏 , and length of bridge,
𝐿. Many aspects of pressure-flow scour are still unexplored. Two such aspects are the temporal
evolution and the location of the pressure flow scour hole.
Hahn and Lyn (2010) conducted clear water experiments of pressure flow scour and reported
that the pressure flow scour hole develops downstream of the contraction. They further reported
that the development of the scour hole is slow and becomes noticeable only after few hours of
the start of the experiment. On the other hand, Kumcu (2016) and Zhai (2010) who also
conducted clear water experiments, reported that the pressure flow scour development is quick
at the start with considerable scouring taking place within a small fraction of the equilibrium
time. They further reported that the location of the scour hole is within the contraction.
In the present study, experiments are carried out to investigate the location and temporal
evolution of pressure-flow scour. Both types of pressure-flow scour were achieved - a quickly
forming scour hole inside the contraction and a slowly evolving scour hole downstream of the
contraction. The paper starts with description of the experimental setup and the methodology
used to analyze the data. Results and discussions are presented next, followed by the
concluding remarks.
Page 2
Figure 1 (a) Schematic of the experimental setup and (b) schematic of the vertical contraction.
2. Experimental setup and methodology
2.1 Flume and model bridge
A schematic of the experimental setup is shown in Figure (1a). The experiments are conducted
using the recirculating flume in the HWRE Lab at IIT Kanpur. The flume is 15 m long, 0.3 m
wide and 0.45 m deep. An electromagnetic flow meter is used to measure the flow discharge
and a tail end gate is used to adjust the flow depth in the flume. A floating horizontal plate is
used at the entrance section of the flume to reduce the flow disturbances associated with the
pumping of the water. Sand of uniform size, 𝐷50 = 0.71 mm, is used to form the mobile bed.
The sand bed is made over a length of approximately 8 m. Just before the sand bed, a sloping
gravel of length 1 m is placed. The gravel bed aids in the flow development before the flow
reaches to the sand bed. The vertical contraction to the flow is created at approximately 4 m
from the start of the sand bed to ensure that the flow is fully developed at the test section. The
vertical contraction is created using rectangular model bridges. The model bridge is made of
glass to ensure the transparency to laser beam. The ends of the bridge are covered with synthetic
rubber and tightened against the walls of the flume. The bridges are exactly positioned using
point gauge and spirit level so that the bridge opening is 𝐻𝑏 .
Page 3
2.2 Scour depth measurement
The continuous underwater scour depth measurement for studying temporal development of
scour is one of the biggest challenges in the hydraulic engineering. The problem is partly solved
by using flumes having glass walls. In that case, with the assumption that the scour profile is
two dimensional, the scour profile near the glass wall is recorded with time. However, in the
present study, some lateral non-uniformity of scour is observed towards the wall due to side
wall effects. Due to this reason, an alternate method is developed to record the centerline scour
profile with time. A laser and a camera assembly are used where laser is used to illuminate the
centerline and the camera takes the images of the illuminated area. The images are later
processed to extract the scour profile. The details of the process are depicted in Figure (2) and
discussed below.
2.2.1 Image acquisition
The laser is placed over the flume in such a way that the centerline of the flume is illuminated
(Figure 1a). The camera is placed on the side of the flume to record the images. The camera is
placed in such a way that the camera axis is perpendicular to the flume walls. The room is made
dark to avoid image contamination due to other sources of light. Typical image obtained in the
experiments is shown in Figure (2a). One image is recorded every minute from the start of the
experiment. Additionally, calibration image is taken which is used to convert the photographic
pixels into real world distances. Due to the presence of the bridge and the surface waves
generated downstream of the contraction, the entire region is not uniformly lit as can be seen
in Figure (2a). In general, a good illumination of the entire scour hole is observed.
2.2.2 Image conversion
In the experiments, laser emits light having wavelength corresponding to visible red light. The
images obtained are later converted into grayscale images. The conversion is done in such a
way that the depth of grayscale image corresponds to the depth of red component in the original
image. A typical grayscale image is shown in Figure (2b). The images are then cropped to
retain the useful part only (Figure 2c). The cropping is very useful in the subsequent processing
of the images. The images are then converted into binary images. The binarization of the image
can be done in several ways, like by edge detection methods. However, in the present study,
an alternate method was used in which the pixels that had intensity less than a fixed threshold
were assigned a value of zero and those having more than threshold were assigned a value of
one. A typical binary image is shown in Figure (2d) where the white region shows the areas
where intensity is more than the threshold.
2.2.3 Scour profile extraction
The binary image is then used to extract the scour profile. In the process, all the pixels at a
particular longitudinal distance are averaged to get the mean scour (in pixels) at that distance.
This process is repeated for the whole image from left to right to get the scour profile in
photographic coordinates. Calibration image is then used to convert the photographic
Page 4
coordinates into physical distances. The typical scour profile obtained at the end of this step is
shown in Figure (2e).
Figure 2 Processes involved in the scour measurement using the laser and camera setup.
2.3 Experimental design
Two experiments are carried out to achieve the pressure-flow scour, both inside and
downstream of the contraction. The details of the experiments are listed in Table 1 below.
Following Lyn (2008) the critical velocity, 𝑉𝑐 , of the approach flow is calculated using the
Equation (1). In Equation (1), 𝑔 is the acceleration due to gravity and 𝑠 = 2.65 is the specific
gravity of the sand. For both the experiments, the set of independent variables is same except
for the approach velocity, 𝑉𝑎 . Accordingly, the non-dimensional group, 𝑉𝑎 /𝑉𝑐 is 0.75 for C1
and 0.45 for C2. In C1, the scour is observed inside the contraction, the process is quick at the
start of the experiment and the rate of scouring is very small after 20 hours. So, the experiment
was stopped after 24 hours. In comparison, significant scouring is observed in C2 even after
72 hours and due to lab constraints, the experiment had to be stopped at 96 hours.
1
𝐻𝑎 6
𝑉𝑐 = 1.52√𝑔(𝑠 − 1)𝐷50 ( ) (1)
𝐷50
Page 5
Table 1 Summary of the experimental parameters.

𝑉𝑎 𝐻𝑎 𝐻𝑏 𝐿 𝐷50 𝑦𝑚𝑒
Experiment 𝐻𝑏 /𝐻𝑎 𝑉𝑎 /𝑉𝑐 𝑦𝑚𝑒 /𝐻𝑎
(m/s) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m)
C1 0.28 0.1 0.06 0.15 0.0007 0.049 0.6 0.75 0.49
C2 0.17 0.1 0.06 0.15 0.0007 0.060 0.6 0.45 0.60
3.1 Validation of the measurements by the laser and camera
The scour profiles at different times are obtained using the methodology discussed above. At
the end of the experiment, the water is drained from the flume slowly so that the scour hole is
not disturbed. A digital point gauge having an accuracy of 0.5 mm is used to measure the scour
profile along the centerline. Figure (3) shows the comparison of the point gauge measurements
and the scour profile obtained using the laser and camera just before stopping the experiment.
A good agreement is observed between the two measurements. The region upstream of the
bridge cannot be resolved due to poor illumination. In general, the main features of the scour
hole including the maximum scour depth is easily identifiable.
Figure 3 Comparison of the scour profile obtained using a point gauge and the laser and camera
setup.
3.2 Magnitude of pressure-flow scour
Equilibrium pressure-flow scour, 𝑦𝑚𝑒 , has been defined differently by different authors (Majid
and Tripathi 2021). In the present study, we have defined the equilibrium scour depth as the
maximum scour depth observed at the end of the experiment (24 hours for C1 and 96 hours for
C2). Umbrell et al. (1998) and Lyn (2008) have developed models to predict 𝑦𝑚𝑒 based on the
statistical analysis of the laboratory data. For the formulations of the models please see Majid
and Tripathi (2021). Table 2 shows the observed and the predicted scour depth using these
models. 𝑦𝑢 and 𝑦𝑙 are the predicted scour depths using Umbrell et al. and Lyn’s models,
respectively and 𝑦𝑜 is the observed equilibrium scour depth. It is observed that the measured
scour depth for C2 is much higher than the predicted scour depth. In fact, the models predict
more scour depth with increasing 𝑉𝑎 /𝑉𝑐 , which however is not observed in our experiments.
Page 6
Notice that the scour hole developed inside the contraction for C1 and downstream of the
contraction for C2. Hahn and Lyn (2010) also observed higher scour depths when the scour
hole developed downstream of the contraction than that predicted by the models in their
experiments. Although the reason for this anomaly is not known but Hahn and Lyn (2010)
reported that the mechanism for the scouring might be different when it occurs downstream.
Table 2 Comparison of observed and the predicted pressure-flow scour depth.

Experiment 𝑦𝑜 (m) 𝑦𝑢 (m) 𝑦𝑙 (𝑚) 𝑦𝑜 /𝑦𝑢 𝑦𝑜 /𝑦𝑙
C1 0.049 0.033 0.021 1.48 2.33
C2 0.060 0.008 0.004 7.50 15.00
3.3 Temporal evolution of pressure-flow scour
Figure (4) shows the observed scour profiles at different times for C1 and C2. For C1, a
significant scour is observed only after 30 minutes (about 75% of equilibrium scour).
Afterwards the scour hole tends towards an equilibrium shape and no noticeable increase in the
maximum scour is observed after 16 hours. However, some scour continues to take place from
the downstream slope of the scour hole. The location of the maximum scour depth is always
within the contraction.
On contrary, a very small scour is observed in C2 in the first 30 minutes, then it continues to
increase and around 50% of the final scour at the end of experiment takes place in 16 h. The
scour hole starts to develop at the downstream end of the bridge and the location of the
maximum scour keeps shifting downstream as time passes. A significant increase in the scour
depth is observed within the time interval from 24 h to 48 h. Small increase in the scour depth
is even noticeable in the time window from 72 h to 96 h. Although, the experiment was stopped
at 96 h, but it appears that the scour hole had not reached its equilibrium. Similar observation
has also been reported by Hahn and Lyn (2010).
Page 7
Figure 4 Observed scour profiles for C1 and C2 at different times during the experiments.
Figure (5) shows the temporal variation of the magnitude and location of the maximum scour
depth. 𝑦𝑚 and 𝑥𝑚 denote the magnitude and location of maximum scour at a particular time.
In Figure (5a) the temporal evolution model for pressure-flow scour propose by Kumcu (2016)
is also plotted. Interested readers can see Kumcu (2016) for model details. For C1, it is observed
that although the scour predicted by Kumcu model is higher than the observed scour at all the
times but the trend of the of the data follows the Kumcu model. The development of maximum
scour follows logarithmic variation with time. On the other hand, for C2, different regimes are
observed. Noticeable scour is observed after some time after the start of the experiment. The
maximum scour depth does not follow logarithmic variation and a significant variation form
the Kumcu model is observed. Figure (5b) shows the temporal variation of the location of the
maximum scour depth. For C1, the location of maximum scour is always within the contraction
with 𝑥𝑚 /𝐿 ≈ 0.5, while for C2 it keeps on shifting downstream with time. After 96 hours the
location of maximum scour depth is about one bridge length downstream of the contraction
i.e., 𝑥𝑚 /𝐿 ≈ 2. These observations about the magnitude of pressure-flow scour and temporal
evolution of scour also point towards different mechanisms of scour inside and downstream of
the contraction.
Page 8
Figure 5 Temporal evolution of maximum scour: (a) magnitude and (b) location of maximum
scour.
3.4 Pressure-flow scour profile
In this subsection the profile of the equilibrium pressure flow scour is compared with the profile
(Equation 3) reported by Guo et al. (2009). Guo et al. reported that the scour hole in pressure
flow condition develops inside the contraction and at equilibrium the location of maximum
scour is at 𝑥/𝐿 = 0.85. In the present study, the maximum equilibrium scour, 𝑦𝑒𝑚 , is observed
inside the contraction at 𝑥/𝐿 ≈ 0.5 for C1 (Figure 6). However, for C2, the maximum
equilibrium scour is located downstream of the contraction. Additionally, the shape of the
profile in the present experiments does not agree with that reported by Guo et al. (2009). The
scour observed at the upstream and downstream of the contraction in C1 is more than predicted
by the model. Similarly, for C2, significant deposition is observed at 𝑥/𝐿 > 3.5, which is not
predicted by the model.
𝑥 2.5
(−| −0.85| ) 𝑥
−𝑒 𝐿 ≤ 0.85
𝑦 𝐿
= 𝑥 1.8 (2)
𝑦𝑒𝑚 [−0.5( −0.85) ] 𝑥
𝐿
{−1.055𝑒 + 0.055
𝐿
> 0.85
Page 9
Figure 6 Observed and predicted scour profiles of C1 and C2.
4. Conclusions
The present study investigates the temporal evolution of pressure-flow scour for two different
cases, one where maximum scour occurs inside the contraction and other where it occurs
downstream of the contraction. The scour profile is measured using a laser and camera
assembly. The arrangement helps to have a continuous temporal measurement of the bed scour
profile. A fair agreement is observed between the point gauge and the laser and camera
assembly measurements.
Some significant differences are observed when the scouring occurs inside the contraction and
downstream of the contraction. Downstream scouring is observed when the approach velocity
is much less than the critical velocity. On the other hand, when 𝑉𝑎 /𝑉𝑐 increases, scouring takes
place inside the contraction. One of the significant differences between the two cases is the
magnitude of pressure flow scour which is surprisingly higher when downstream scour is
observed. Similarly, the temporal evolution of the downstream scour is very slow as compared
to inside the contraction scour. Besides, while the location of maximum scour does not change
for inside the contraction scouring, the scour hole continues to shift downstream for the
downstream scour hole.
The present study needs to be extended for different sediment sizes and other independent
variables like the amount and length of the contraction and approach velocity. Besides, the
investigation of flow field can also help in understanding the mechanisms of scouring.
Page 10
Acknowledgements
The support provided by the Science and Engineering Research Board (File No. YSS/2015/000574-
SERB) to the second author is also duly acknowledged.
References
Arneson, L. A., and S. R. Abt. 1998. Vertical contraction scour at bridges with water flowing under
pressure conditions. Transp. Res. Rec, 1647 (1): 10–17.
Guo, J., K. Kerenyi, J. E. Pagan-Ortiz, and K. Flora. 2009. Bridge pressure flow scour at clear water
threshold condition. Trans. Tianjin Univ, 15 (2): 79–94.
Hahn, E. M., and D. A. Lyn. 2010. Anomalous contraction scour? Vertical- contraction case. J. Hydraul.
Eng, 136 (2): 137–141.
Kocyigit, M. B., and O. Karakurt. 2019. Pressure flow and weir scour beneath a bridge deck. Can. J.
Civ. Eng, 46 (6): 534–543.
Kumcu, S. Y. 2016. Steady and unsteady pressure scour under bridges at clear-water conditions. Can.
J. Civ. Eng, 43 (4): 334–342.
Shan, H., C. B. Zhaoding Xie, O. Suaznabar, J. S. Steven Lottes, and K. Kerenyi. 2012. Submerged
flow bridge scour under clear water conditions. Publication No. FHWA-HRT-12-034. Washington,
DC: Federal Highway Administration.
Umbrell, E. R., G. K. Young, S. M. Stein, and J. S. Jones. 1998. Clear- water contraction scour under
bridges in pressure flow. J. Hydraul. Eng, 124 (2): 236–240.
Lyn, D. A. 2008. Pressure-flow scour: A reexamination of the HEC-18 equation. J. Hydraul. Eng, 134
(7): 1015–1020.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Effect of Chlorpyrifos Pesticide on Bio-transportation of Escherichia coli

through porous media
Ajay Chalotra1, Richa Babbar2, Dwarikanath Ratha3 and Manoj Baranwal4
1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Thapar Institute of Engineering
and Technology, Patiala, Punjab, India – 147004; Email:
ajay.devraj.chalotra499@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Thapar Institute of Engineering and
Technology, Patiala, Punjab, India – 147004; Email: richa.babbar@thapar.edu
3
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Thapar Institute of Engineering and
Technology, Patiala, Punjab, India – 147004; Email: dnath.ratha@thapar.edu
4
Professor, Department of Biotechnology, Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology,
Patiala, Punjab, India – 147004; Email: manoj.baranwal@thapar.edu
Abstract
In the agriculture system, pesticides have become an inevitable part of the modern
environment as they are widely used in agriculture and extensively distributed throughout
most ecosystems. However, it affects the environment with toxic chemicals resulting in
harmful side effects. Currently, Chlorpyrifos [0,0-diethyl 0-(3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinyl)-
phosphorothioate] (CP) is one of the world’s widely commercially used pesticides with
extensive application in agricultural areas worldwide. Around 40% of all pesticides produced
and used commercially belong to organophosphorus pesticide (OPP). CP is highly toxic and
threatens human health. CP has been widely used to control agricultural insects. Its residuals
are present in the soil environment for a more extended period and contaminate the soil and
groundwater environment. This study investigates the effect of CP concentrations on
microbial contaminant transport/leaching through the subsurface medium to the groundwater
environment. Groundwater and soil contamination is a significant problem of intensive
agricultural systems. However, pesticides' toxicity leaching through the soil environment to
groundwater is still unclear. Therefore, the study aims to provide an overview of current state
of research on effect of pesticide on bio-transportation of Escherichia coli through
groundwater.
Keywords: Chlorpyrifos, Contaminant Transport, Escherichia coli, Groundwater

contamination, Soil medium.
1. Introduction
Agriculture has emerged to be one of the most vital sectors in terms of contributing to nation
development. Indian agriculture system has made an enormous contribution to the nation's
development. Most agricultural fields were explored to fulfill aggressive needs to support the
demand. Despite that, it results in groundwater and environmental pollution due to
uncontrolled agrarian activities. The introduction and extensive application of pesticides to
the agricultural field have caused many environmental problems worldwide. Pesticides are
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
commonly used to protect crops from pests and enhance productivity. It is a toxic chemical
substance used to control and demolish the population of harmful pests, insects, fungi, and
microbes. In agricultural practices, pesticides contain more than one active ingredient that can
kill microorganisms (Zubairi et al., 2021). In the agrarian activity process, water is used to
perform agricultural production. As the water absorbs into groundwater through infiltration
and percolation, it contaminates the groundwater bodies with unwanted chemicals.
Groundwater infiltration may be another cause of OPP pollution in groundwater (Mauffret et
al., 2017, Zhang et al., 2021). A tremendous amount of pesticide residues in the soil
environment severely threatens the soil medium and groundwater environment. Soil health is
dependent on the soil microbial richness and diversity. As natural decomposers,
microorganisms enrich the soil nutrients and improve soil texture. Several researchers have
shown that the OPP always affects the microorganism present in the soil. Some OPP
stimulate the growth of soil microorganisms and some have depressive effects or no effects.
However, the relationship of different structures of OPP to the growth of soil microorganisms
is not easily predictable (Lo 2010, Supreeth et al., 2016). Currently, Chlorpyrifos [0,0-diethyl
0-(3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinyl)-phosphorothioate] (CP) is the most commercially favored
group of pesticides with extensive application worldwide. CP enters the soil environment by
direct application, spray drift or foliar wash-off. Adsorption, desorption, and mobility of CP
in soil and water are greatly dependent on the nature of the adsorbents and water solubility.
In this context, few studies tested the effect of CP on microbial survival in the soil
environment. To the best of the author's knowledge, degradation of Escherichia coli by using
CP in soil medium has not been reported so far. The present study aims to investigate the
influence of CP residual in soil and the leaching potential of microbial contaminant
Escherichia coli through medium to groundwater bodies.
2.1 Chemicals
The experimental study necessitated several chemicals. These included: Chlorpyrifos

pesticide used in soil medium and purchased from HPM Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd, Delhi,
India. Luria Broth (10 g of tryptone, 5 g of yeast extract, 5 g of NaCl per litre of distilled
water) as a growth medium was used for culturing Escherichia coli C3000 (ATCC 15597).
Phosphate buffer saline (PBS 1X) was used to dissolve the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5,
diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) salt for the preparation of the MTT stock solution.
Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) was used to dissolve the formazan crystals formed in the MTT
assay. All chemical were of analytical reagent (AR) grade and procured from HiMedia
Laboratories Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India and the aqueous solution were prepared in sterilized
distilled water.
2.2 Porous medium
The soil sample was locally available river sand used as a porous medium in the column
experiment. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy
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December 22 -24, 2022
(EDS) was conducted for the soil medium's morphological analysis. Analysis revealed that
the particle is of angular and non-uniform shape and has an alumina content of 3.54%.
2.3 Chlorpyrifos
Chlorpyrifos [0,0-diethyl 0-(3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinyl)-phosphorothioate], a crystalline OPP

is one of the most widely used pesticides and the second most detected OPP in water because
of its prevalent usage in agriculture (Verma et al., 2020). Chlorpyrifos has low solubility in
water (1.18 mg/l), but it is readily soluble in most organic solvents. Due to widespread use,
chlorpyrifos and its residues have been detected in soil, surface water, and groundwater
(Hossain et al., 2015). The physical and chemical properties of chlorpyrifos play a significant
role in determining its environmental transport and fate.
2.4 Bacterial suspension
Escherichia coli (ATCC® 15597TM) was used as microbial transport in this study, and it
was purchased from ATCC (American Type Culture Collection). Input bacterial suspension
for transportation through the column was prepared as per (Chalotra et al., 2022). The initial
concentration of the bacterial suspension was determined by measuring the absorbance. The
bacterial suspension was centrifuged at 8,000 rpm for 10 min at 4 °C, and the supernatant was
replaced with sterilized distilled water (Foppen et al., 2005). The resulting bacterial
suspension was pumped with the help of a peristaltic pump at a constant rate 20 ml/min in the
column.
2.5 Experimental setup
Experiments were conducted by maintaining a constant depth of 20 cm in the vertical glass

column. Soil samples were mixed with different concentrations of CP; 0, 50, 100, 150, 200
and 250 ppm in individual column experiment. Glass column packed with a specific
concentration of CP in soil medium was filled in the glass column without the formation of
stratifying layers. The schematic diagram of the experimental setup and glass column details
is drawn in Figure 1. Bacterial suspension was pumped at a constant flow rate with the help
of a peristaltic pump. Bacterial suspension was directed from top to bottom by a peristaltic
pump at a flow rate of 20 ml/min. Glass column had a diameter of 50 cm and a depth of 30
cm. Porous medium filled in the glass column with variations of CP concentration at a depth
of 20 cm in each glass column for the microbial transportation. The wire mesh was placed at
the top of the column, and the glass beads were placed at the bottom of the column to
minimize the loss of medium particles during bacterial suspension transportation. Effluents
were collected within the specified time interval and samples were analyzed by conducting
the MTT [3-(4, 5 dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2-5, diphenyltetrazolium bromide)] assay of the
effluent samples to determine the viable cells in the effluent. The OD (optical density) values
were recorded by measuring absorbance on OD570 nm as a measurement wavelength and
OD620 nm as a reference wavelength on the ELISA plate reader (Chalotra et al., 2022).MTT
assay was used to determine microbial viability due to the effect of the CP present on
microbial transportation through the porous medium. MTT assay was conducted by using the
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
protocol of (Chalotra et al., 2022). Results were plotted in the graphs and breakthrough
curves were analyzed.
Table 1 Variation of CP concentration and parameters obtained during bacterial transport

through medium.
Experiment CP conc., Velocity, Peak conc., Max conc.,
Input culture
No. ppm cm sec-1 min C/Co
EXP 1.1 0 0.055 18 0.2170
EXP 1.2 50 0.055 18 0.1886
EXP 1.3 100 0.055 18 0.1616
Escherichia coli
EXP 1.4 150 0.055 18 0.1304
EXP 1.5 200 0.055 18 0.1076
EXP 1.6 250 0.055 18 0.0763
Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the experimental setup
During the microbial transport through the porous medium, several transport mechanisms
plays an important which impacts the effluent concentration concerning time. CP can have an
effective impact on the microbial transport through the porous medium. The viable
concentration of the microbial content in the effluent was measured by using the MTT assay
technique. Viable concentrations of the Escherichia coli in the effluent samples were
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
measured by using the MTT assay. A 200 µl volume of each collected sample was poured in
the 96 well plate and then 20 µl of the MTT stock solution were added. 96 well plate were
incubated for 4 hours. After incubation at 37 °C for 4 hour in the incubator 170 µl of the
supernatant removed from the well and 100 µl of the DMSO (dimethyl sulphoxide) which
dissolved the crystalline products. Absorbance was measured at 570nm, 620nm as measurement
and reference wavelength respectively. Microbial concentration in the effluent has been
significantly decreases.
3.1 Impact of the CP on microbial transport
Several experiments were conducted by using porous medium in the column at a specific
depth. Table 1 shows the experimental details and results of the parameters of breakthrough
curves obtained at different experimental conditions. CP has a significant impact on the
microbial concentration which transported through the porous medium. CP concentration and
Escherichia coli concentration in the effluent were found to be inversely proportional in time
and space as shown in the Figure 3. In Figure 3, peak concentration has been significantly
affected by increasing the CP concentration in all the experimental conditions. Results show a
diminution in the peak concentration of the Escherichia coli, which states that CP present in
the medium has an adverse effect on the Escherichia coli concentration.
Figure 2 Breakthrough curves were obtained from the experiments at 0, 50, 100, 150, 200
and 250 ppm concentration
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 3 Impact of CP concentration on the peak microbial concentration in individual

concentration
4. Conclusions
In this study, the effect of the CP concentration in the soil medium on the microbial transport
through the medium is studied by using column experiments. CP is already present on the soil
medium at different levels in individual experimental conditions. Experiments were
conducted by varying CP concentration from control to 250 ppm at variable concentration,
details mentioned in Table 1. Several other parameters, such as particle size, travel distance,
surface condition, etc., were maintained constant in all the experiments. It is concluded from
the study that as there is an increment in CP concentration in the soil medium, it decreases the
maximum concentration of Escherichia coli in the effluents. The decrease in the peak
concentration is due to the impact of the CP on the membranes of Escherichia coli and makes
them nonviable in the effluent samples.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support received from the Council of Scientific and Industrial
Research (CSIR) [Project Sanction No: 22(0760)/17/EMR-II]. We gratefully acknowledge the
financial support of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the project grant
which made the study possible.
References
Chalotra, A., Ratha, D., Babbar, R., & Baranwal, M. (2022). A study on transport of Escherichia coli through
saturated porous medium. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 1-16.
Foppen, J. W. A., Mporokoso, A., &Schijven, J. F. (2005).Determining straining of Escherichia coli from
breakthrough curves.Journal of contaminant hydrology, 76(3-4), 191-210.
Hossain, M. S., Chowdhury, M., Pramanik, M. D., Rahman, M. A., Fakhruddin, A. N. M., &Alam, M. K.
(2015). Determination of selected pesticides in water samples adjacent to agricultural fields and removal
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December 22 -24, 2022
of organophosphorus insecticide chlorpyrifos using soil bacterial isolates. Applied Water Science, 5(2),
171-179.
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Supreeth, M., Chandrashekar, M. A., Sachin, N., &Raju, N. S. (2016).Effect of chlorpyrifos on soil microbial
diversity and its biotransformation by Streptomyces sp. HP-11.3 Biotech, 6(2), 1-6.
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Sphingobacterium sp. C1B, a psychrotolerant bacterium isolated from apple orchard in Himachal Pradesh
of India. Extremophiles, 24(6), 897-908.
Zhang, Y., Qin, P., Lu, S., Liu, X., Zhai, J., Xu, J., ...& Wan, Z. (2021). Occurrence and risk evaluation of
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Prediction of hydrodynamics performance of submerged composite porous

breakwater using soft computing techniques
Abhishek Gupta1, Saquib Jawed1 and D. Karmakar2
1
Research Scholar, Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering, National
Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore – 575025, India;
Email: guptaabhishek0710@gmail.com; saquibara304@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering, National
Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore – 575025, India;
Email: dkarmakar@nitk.edu.in
Abstract
In the present study, various configurations of composite breakwaters are modelled and
analysed under the effect of regular waves in a two-dimensional wave flume. The validation
of the experimental results with the results available in the literature is performed along with
the soft computing technique is used to predict the performance of the hydrodynamic
characteristics of the composite breakwater. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is used in
this study the performance of the submerged composite breakwater system. Statistical
methods such as Root-Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and co-efficient of correlation are
computed to analyse the performance of the ANN. The results are checked for all the various
combinations of composite breakwater and the effects are analysed. The study will be helpful
in the design and analysis of the composite breakwater in the near shore and deep-water
regions.
Keywords: Sea-level rise; Composite breakwater; Dissipation and transmission coefficient;
Soft computing techniques; ANN.
1. Introduction
The coastal ecosystem and the people who depend on it are being impacted by sea level rise
and global warming. The rising sea level is causing formation of strong waves, eroding the
shoreline and causing land loss along the coast. The coastal areas of a country are vital in
terms of tourism, trade, service and defence. The protection structures are required to
safeguard the seashore. There are several artificial coastal protections that can be used, the
most notable of which is the breakwater. Breakwaters are often employed to protect and
maintain calmness inside ports and harbours from wave action, to stop siltation near river
mouths, and to safeguard coastal areas and beaches. The breakwater's primary function is to
diffuse wave energy approaching the coast. Furthermore, the breakwater gathers eroding sand
and uses it for coastal regeneration and replenishment. Breakwaters are classified into several
varieties based on their composition and purpose. Submerged breakwaters are one of the most
common types of breakwaters. An effective design of a submerged breakwater, according to
study, can function as a viable means of beach nourishment. Furthermore, one of the key
advantages of submerged breakwaters is their inexpensive construction costs; nevertheless, in
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high and severe wave conditions, a single barrier may not be sufficient to defend coastal
areas. In many cases, damage to these coastal protection structures results in severe loss,
whether to the economy or to people's livelihoods. In these conditions, the usage of a
composite breakwater is advantageous.
For composite breakwaters, various combinations can be used. Iwagaki et al. (1978)
presented a study on combination of different types of breakwaters with the pneumatic one
and it is deduced that the combination of submerged breakwater is more effective in damping
than individual breakwater. Sulisz (1985) formulated a theory to predict wave reflection and
transmission at an infinite rubble mound breakwater of arbitrary cross section. Linear
incident wave was assumed, and it was imposed normal to structure. The study also noted
that transmission coefficients of both the cases correlate rather well. Adams and Sonu (1986)
examined wave transmission across a submerged breakwater at Santa Monica, California
through a 3D Model test. The experimental result agrees with the empirical criteria proposed
by Tanaka (1978) with a correlation coefficient of +.87. Scarlatos and Singh (1987)
developed an analytical model for the study of wave transmission through porous breakwater.
study found that reflection increases with increasing wave steepness and breakwater width,
and decreases with increasing wave number and permeability of the structure. Mostafa et al.
(1999) performed the experimental and numerical study of nonlinear dynamic interaction
among water waves, composite breakwater and sand seabed of finite thickness. Boundary
element and Finite element methods (BEM-FEM) are adopted to simulate this problem. Hu et
al. (2002) provided a two-dimensional analytical solution to analyse the reflection and
transmission of linear water waves passing between a vertical porous wall and a submerged
horizontal plate. Kumar and Sahoo (2006) investigated a flexible porous plate breakwater in
two layers of fluid, where each fluid layer was supposed to be of limited depth and the
breakwater was stretched over the full depth. To solve the boundary value issue, an
orthogonal relation appropriate for a two-layer fluid with a free surface is used in conjunction
with the least-square approximation approach. Hur et al. (2010) studied the response of sandy
seabed for nonlinear wave and composite breakwater. In their study, numerical stimulations
are performed to investigate the pore pressure induced inside the structure foundation by the
seabed under influence of nonlinear waves. Diamantoulaki et al. (2010) investigated the
overall performance of the array of floating breakwater which is hinged under the effect of
monochromatic linear waves in frequency domain. The numerical model is based on the 3D-
hydrodynamic formulation of the floating body. Also, the results of hinged FB are compared
with unhinged FB and the results are compared. Tanimoto et al. (2011) experimentally tested
the composite breakwater foundations under the attack of irregular waves and concluded that
the irregular waves are more destructive than regular waves. He et al. (2013) carried out a
study of experiments over the configuration of floating breakwater with asymmetric
pneumatic chambers and the experiments are carried out under regular wave conditions to
study the effects. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics is used for numerical study for wave
interaction with a composite breakwater located on a permeable bed by Akbari and
Taherkhani (2019).
In the recent years, where all the problems in the world are complex and their precise answer
requires long computation and nonlinear approach, many hard computing techniques fails at
various issues for giving satisfactory answer. Soft computing is an area of computer science
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December 22 -24, 2022
that is built on two primary pillars: approximation precision and the capacity to learn from
experience like a human mind. Hard computing approaches take time and produce accurate
result, but in today's world, nearly everything is estimated for faster decision-making,
illustrating the importance of soft computing. Gent and Boogard (1998) used ANN to predict
horizontal forces on vertical structures to avoid the complex and nonlinear calculation of
physical modelling. Huang et al. (2003) studied the coastal water level predictions using
ANN along South Shore of Long Island, New York. In the study, RNN-WL model is
prepared to predict long term water level waves by using historic data. Prediction of wave
transmission behind low crested breakwater by means of numerical model based on ANN is
performed by Panizzo and Briganti (2007). The study tested the ANN model and some
physical relationships among existing parameters are also established. The review study of
ANN in coastal engineering is performed by Mandal et al. (2008) showing that the ANN has
high degree of freedom and tolerance value for error. Water depth, wave period, wave height
and alongshore velocity are considered as an input parameter by Maanen et al. (2010) to
develop an ANN model to predict the depth integrated alongshore sediment transport rate.
Samani et al. (2011) predicted longshore sediment transport using ANN and Fuzzy logic and
six dominant variables were considered for developing the models. Comparative study
between ANN and Fuzzy logic was also presented. Wave prediction along New Mangalore
Port is studied using ANN by Gopinath and Dwarakish (2015) using Feed Forward Back
Propagation with LM algorithm and a recurrent network called Non-linear Auto Regressive
with exogenous input (NARX) network. Correlation between Feed Forward Back
Propagation and NARX is found to be satisfactory. Robertson et al. (2015) developed ANN
models to study ocean full scale breaking wave heights. Sreedhara et al. (2019) studied the
local scour around the bridge pier using ANN, SVM, ANFIS and PSO. The results obtained
from all the soft computing techniques are compared using various statistical parameters such
as Correlation Coefficient (CC), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), Nash–
Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and Normalized Mean Bias (NMB).
As noted, form the past research, a significant study is performed on different kind of
breakwaters as a single structure using different numerical analytical method. However, the
study in the area of composite breakwater is still limited. So, the experimental study of
submerged composite breakwater is proposed. Further, ANN has offered good results in
different domain of coastal engineering if properly investigated. Although being a prime tool
in the field of analysis, the application of soft computing methods like ANN in the coastal
engineering field is still under utilised. Therefore, in the present study, a composite
breakwater model experimentally investigated against the action of linear waves under
various exposure circumstances, and the data obtained from the experiment is utilized to
examine the performance of the breakwater using ANN, in order to validate the
hydrodynamic performance of the composite breakwater.
2. Artificial Neural Network
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is one of the soft computing models available for
computation. As shown in Figure 1, it processes data in the same way as the human brain
does. It is capable of machine learning as well as pattern recognition. It is a data processing
approach. Not only is the neural network utilized for classification, but it is also employed for
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December 22 -24, 2022
regression of continuous target attributes. ANNs operate on the concept of supervised

learning. It is primarily constituted of two fundamental methods that determine the efficiency
of the output, namely training and testing. ANNs are powerful techniques for analyzing huge
datasets that have a high computing power and are utilized for dataset validation. ANN being
a soft computing technique, has the advantage of learning through the dataset of examples
i.e., according to the realistic environment conditions, gives approximate results and it is
adaptive in nature.
Figure 1: Representative diagram of Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Figure 2: Pictorial Representation of FFBPN Model
In the present study, the Feedforward Back Propagation Network (FFBPN) is developed. The
FFBPN is mainly composed of one input layer, one output layer, and at least one hidden
layer, all of which are made up of active neurons coupled by adjustable weights. This model
incorporates an activation function for non-linear conversion of summed inputs. The
activation function employed can differ among hidden layers as well as between the last
hidden and the output layer. The hyperbolic tangent (tansig) function is utilized between the
input and hidden layers, whereas the linear (purelin) function is used between the hidden and
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December 22 -24, 2022
output layers. The transfer functions are selected on the basis of their performance in the past
studies. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm will be utilized for FFBPN's learning criteria.
LM is widely utilized because of its remarkable performance in terms of memory and speed
among learning algorithms. The schematic representation is shown in Figure 2. The FFBPN
can be mathematically represented by
m n
Zk ( x) = Wkj  Tr ( y) + bko where y = W ji  xi + b ji (1)
j =1 i =1
where x is input value from 1 to n , W ji are the weights between input and hidden layer
nodes and Wkj are the weights between hidden layer and output layer nodes. b ji and bko are
bias values at hidden and output layer respectively including m as hidden layer and Tr ( y) is
activation function. This activation function allows a non-linear conversion of summed
inputs. The activation function as defined earlier can be different among the hidden layers
and between last hidden layer and output layer. Between the input and hidden layer, the
tansig function is used while between hidden and output layer, purelin function is used. The
tansig function to be used will be in the form as defined below:
 2 
Tr ( y) =  − 1 (2)
1 + exp(−2  y) 
where x is the summation of input values with weights and biases. While purelin or linear
function will be in the form of
purelin(n) = n (3)
As already discussed, the main objective of the network is to minimize the error or difference
between the computed and experiment output in the training part of the network. So, the global
error E is defined as
1 pk 2
E =    ( d kp − okp )  (4)
p p =1 k =1 
where, p is the total number of training patterns, d kp is the desired value of the kth output and
the pth pattern, okp is the actual value of the k output and p pattern.
3. Experimental Study and Data Collection
2.2.1 Experimental Study
A scaled physical model was designed to test the performance of the composite breakwater
structure. The data for incident and reflected wave parameters for the composite breakwater
system will be provided by the experimental investigation. The present study is carried out by
generating regular waves in a two-dimensional wave flume accessible at the Marine
Structures Laboratory of the Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering,
National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, India. The sectional view of the NITK
flume is shown in Figure 3.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 3: The Sectional View of the NITK wave flume.
An induction motor of 11kW power at 1450rpm is controlling the flap and the motor is
regulated by an inverter drive (0-50Hz) rotating in the speed of 0-155rpm. By changing the
frequency through inverter, one can generate required wave period and by changing the
eccentricity, one can generate the desired wave height. Asbestos sheets for the purpose of
wave filter in the vertical direction placed vertically at 0.1m distance center to center is
placed to hinder the flow of any debris in the flume and to dampen the disturbance caused by
successive reflections and to polarize the generated waves. The details of the wave flume are
shown in Table 1.
Table 1: The Details of NITK wave flume
Total length 50m

Channel length 42m
Width 0.74m
Channel depth 1.1m
Maximum water depth 0.5m
Wave flume type Two dimensional
Wave Generator Bottom hinged flap type
Waves generated Monochromatic type
Wave absorber Rubble mound spending beach
Range of wave height generation 0.08 m to 0.24 m
Range of wave period generation 0.8 sec to 4.0 sec
The sectional view of the wave flume shows the position of the model in the flume and
investigation was carried out by imposing the regular waves on the structure. The structure's
design was altered as needed for diverse conditions.
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December 22 -24, 2022
2.2.2 Data collection
The experiments were carried out on a model that included a submerged porous trapezoidal
breakwater as the main structure, a floating breakwater, and four alternative configurations of
porous plate as the secondary component for the composite breakwater. The schematic
diagram of model is shown in figure 4. Wave probes regulated by the Data Acquisition
(DAQ) System and EMCON software record changes in water level after imposing waves on
the breakwater.
Figure 4: Schematic diagram of trapezoidal Structure combined with fixed floating

rectangular structure in presence of porous plate.
4. Selection of Input Parameters
The data from the experimental investigation is collected, categorized, restricted, and
organized in a systematic database. Several non-dimensional parameters have been finalized
in order to create an ANN model that can be used to validate the transmission and dissipation
co-efficient. To create the model, Hi / gT 2 , H i / L , d / L , w / L , h1 / L , h / L , h2 / L ,  1 ,  2
and  3 are considered, where Hi / gT 2 is incident wave steepness, Hi is the wave height, T is
the time period, L is wavelength, d is the distance between the structure, w is the thickness
of the structure, h is the water depth, h1 is the depth of the structure and h2 is the height of
the plate,  1 ,  2 ,and  3 are the respective porosities of structure, plate and floating breakwater.
Table 2.: Number of data points and input parameters used to train ANN models.
Input parameters Train Test
2
Hi / gT , H i / L , d / L ,
w / L , h1 / L , h / L , h2 / L , 870 290
 1 ,  2 and  3
The total dataset of 1160 data points were used for the ANN analysis out of which 870 data
points i.e., 75% was used for training part while 290 data points were used for testing.
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December 22 -24, 2022
The ANN model was developed in order to validate the transmission and dissipation
coefficients. The models had specifications of 10-N-1 for both parameters, where 10
represents the number of input parameters in the input layer, N represents the number of
nodes in the hidden layer varying from 2 to 11, and 1 represents the output parameter in the
output layer, which can be either transmission or dissipation coefficient depending on the
output. The results were classified based on the porosity of the porous plate used as the first
barrier against wave impact. As a result, the current investigation yields four sets of results:
10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%. The number of epochs in these four sets was altered, and the
optimum epochs for each set of porosity were determined by trial and error for transmission
and dissipation co-efficient, respectively.
Figure 5: Network diagram of ANN model
Here, to check the performance of Root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) and correlation co-

efficient was used and their respective formulas and notations are given by
2
 ( Ktmi − Ktpi )
1 N
RMSE = (5)
N i =1
The correlation co-efficient is used to check the performance of the ANN model for Kt and
Kd. The graphical representation of the same is shown below. The formula for co-efficient of
correlation CC (also called R 2 ) is given below:
( K − Ktm ) ( Ktpi − Ktp )
N
tmi
CC = i =1
(6)
2
( K − Ktpi )  ( K − Ktp )
N N
2
tmi tpi
i =1 i =1
where, K tmi and Ktpi is the measured and predicted wave transmission coefficient,
respectively, K tm and K tp is the mean value of measured and predicted observations and N is
the number of observations. The same formula is used for dissipation coefficient as well. The
ANN model was programmed and developed by MATLAB code and the models optimized the
number of training epoch to avoid overtraining, which is a common issue when neural network is being
developed.
In the case of transmission co-efficient, the optimum model configuration and epoch value is
given in Table.3.
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Table 3. Optimal Model Configuration for transmission coefficient

Porosity of Plate Model Epochs CC RMSE
10% 10-8-1 4 0.8218 0.0040511
20% 10-6-1 8 0.8086 0.0038435
30% 10-10-1 4 0.8740 0.0029515
40% 10-3-1 5 0.8260 0.0049659
The following are the graphical representation of the optimum model of every configuration
of the model for transmission coefficient.
R2=0.821806 R2=0.8086
1.0 1.0
0.8
Predicted Kt 0.8
Predicted Kt
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Kt Observed Kt
(a) (b)
Figure 6: (a) ANN model 10-8-1 for 10% porosity and (b) ANN model 10-6-1 for 20%
porosity.
R2=0.8740 R2=0.8260
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
Predicted Kt
Predicted Kt
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Kt Observed Kt
(a) (b)
porosity.
Similarly, for dissipation coefficient, the optimum model configuration and epoch value is
given in Table.4.
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Table 4. Optimal Model Configuration for dissipation coefficient

Porosity of Plate Model Epochs CC RMSE
10% 10-5-1 11 0.7555 0.00524
20% 10-8-1 4 0.6093 0.0011809
30% 10-3-1 2 0.8199 0.0011767
40% 10-10-1 2 0.8578 0.0043909
The following are the graphical representation of the optimum model of every configuration
of the model for dissipation coefficient.
R2=0.7555 R2=0.6093
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
Predicted Kd
Predicted Kd
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Kd Observed Kd
(a) (b)
porosity.
R2=0.8578
R2=0.8199
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
Predicted Kd
0.6
Predicted Kd
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Observed Kd Observed Kd
(a) (b)
porosity.
The transmission co-efficient data demonstrate that the correlation value increases with plate
porosity, with a maximum value of 0.8740 attained for a 30%. In addition to supporting the
CC value, the RMSE value is also minimal, i.e., 0.0029515, which is a favorable sign for
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December 22 -24, 2022
validation. Similarly, for the dissipation co-efficient, the 40% porosity plate condition
resulted in the best findings, with a CC of 0.8578, indicating a high correlation when
compared to other scenarios. RMSE values of less than 0.5 indicate that the model can
reasonably predict the data. Besides, coefficient of correlation greater than 0.75 is a
satisfactory value for illustrating accuracy. The optimised ANN model obtained for
dissipation and transmission coefficients fall in this range only. The epoch for each sample is
determined after making many modifications to the model and determining the best value
from all iterations.
6. Conclusions
In the present study, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is used to analyse the
performance of the submerged composite breakwater system. Statistical methods such as
Root-Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and co-efficient of correlation are computed to analyse
the performance of the ANN. The following conclusions drawn from the study are as follows:
• In all the four conditions of porosity of porous plate, one optimized ANN model, each for
transmission as well as dissipation coefficient is obtained having the satisfying CC and
RMSE value.
• The optimum ANN model for transmission coefficient is found for 10-10-1 with 30%
porosity condition having CC value of 0.8740 and optimum epoch value of 4 among all
the four conditions of porosity.
• The optimum ANN model for dissipation coefficient is found for 10-10-1 with 40%
porosity condition having CC value of 0.8578 and optimum epoch value of 2 among all
the four conditions of porosity.
• CC and RMSE is found appealing statistical tool for checking the performance of ANN as
an annalistic tool.
• The ANN model is found useful and dependable for the validation of experimental data.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Ministry of Education, Government of India and National
Institute of Technology Karnataka Surathkal for providing necessary facilities for pursuing
the research work.
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Page 12
Experimental investigation on hydrodynamic performance of stratified

porous breakwater combined with floating structure and submerged
porous plate
Saquib Jawed1, Abhishek Gupta1 and D. Karmakar 2
1
M-Tech student, Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering, National Institute
of Technology Karnataka, India – 575025;
Email: saquibara304@gmail.com; guptaabhishek0710@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering, National
Institute of Technology Karnataka, India – 575025; E-mail: dkarmakar@nitk.edu.in
Abstract
In the present study, the experimental studies on stratified porous breakwaters of various
configurations are presented. The experimental study is performed for regular waves with
varying wave period and porosity. The submerged porous plate along with a floating
rectangular breakwater at a distance in front of the stationary structure, and a fixed trapezoidal
breakwater are considered for the physical model study. The Isaacson’s three probe method is
used to measure wave interaction parameters such as transmission and reflection coefficients.
The hydrodynamic parameters are analysed for varying wave steepness and the most efficient
configuration is identified. The experimental study reveals that the most efficient configuration
corresponds to the porosity 20% and 35.14% of submerged vertical plate and fixed trapezoidal
breakwater. The fill height of the fixed trapezoidal breakwater is found to be an important
design consideration and the transmission coefficient decreases as the fill height increases. The
proposed breakwater demonstrates the performance of the composite breakwater under a wide
range of incident wave period and has promising applications in coastal engineering.
Keywords: Stratified breakwater, Coastal erosion, Reflection and transmission coefficient,

Porosity, Submerged structure.
1. Introduction
The environmental stress on the coastal zone is rapidly growing due to global warming and
there is a need to protect the coastal environment. The development of the coastal structures to
provide protection against the destructive forces of the sea waves and to withstand the action
of waves has been the constant challenge to coastal engineers. The coastal defence such as
seawalls, groins, offshore breakwaters, artificial nourishments have been tried to overcome the
problem of erosion. The use of breakwaters is one of the solutions to dissipate the wave energy.
The breakwaters are barriers, either natural or artificial, that extend into the open water of a sea
or a lake to break the force of the waves and provide calm water in a harbour. Natural
breakwaters are offshore islands and promontories that shelter the shore from waves. Artificial
breakwaters may be attached to the land or separated from it and are constructed in various
shapes and sizes. They can be built of stones and rubble, of masonry, or combination of these.
Page 1
Artificial Breakwater are the primary structures that are constructed in the coastal region to
intercept the incident wave and cause them to break or reflect the wave energy. These
interception of wave helps in achieving tranquillity at port and harbour or protect the beaches
from erosion. The performance of a breakwater is determined by evaluating the reflection,
transmission and dissipation of wave energy. These performance parameters are dynamic in
nature and depends on various factors like beach slope, porosity of structure, incident wave
height, water depth and geometry of the structure.
Functionally, a good breakwater should satisfy these two basic criteria (i)transmission of wave
energy on the lee side of breakwater should be as minimum as possible and (ii) minimize the
reflection of incident wave energy. McCartney (1985) discussed the various types of floating
breakwater and examined their design, cost effectiveness and limitations. Isaacson (1991)
developed three methods to provide the solution for the measurement of incident wave height,
reflection coefficient and phase of the reflected wave train. These methods suggested the use
of two or three fixed probe for the measurement of hydrodynamic responses. Seabrook et al.
(1998) performed physical modelling for wide crested submerged breakwater and concluded
that the relative submergence, incident wave height and width of the crest of submerged
breakwater are important parameter upon which wave reflection and transmission depends.
The data collected during the test was then used to evaluate design equation for submerged
rubble mound breakwater by statical analysis method. Stamos et al (2001) performed numerical
and experimental study to separate the reflection and transmission coefficient of rigid and
flexible submerged rubble mound breakwater. For mathematical study of separation of incident
and reflected wave, continuous wavelet is used and for experimental study single probe method
is used. The study suggest that rigid structure has more reflection when compared with flexible
one, while in case of flexible model the energy-loss coefficient is maximum. Gesraha (2006)
numerically investigated the reflection and transmission co-efficient of Pi-type floating
breakwater using eigenfunction expansion method and the solution is validated with
experimental results. Wang and Sun (2010) performed experimental study of diamond shaped floating
breakwater. The transmitted wave height and mooring forces were analysed the number of breakwaters
was arranged in such a way that wave transmission and mooring force should remain low.
Hydrodynamic performance of single and double wave screen for varying relative depth of
submergence is performed by Krishnakumar (2010) experimentally. The peak pressures on the
screen and reflection coefficient are found to reduce with a decrease in its relative depth of
submergence. Based on data collected during the test an empirical equation is proposed that
can predict the reflection and transmission coefficient as a function of relative water depth,
wave steepness and depth of submergence. Teh and Izami (2012) performed laboratory test to
determine the hydraulic performance of floating breakwater under the action of regular waves.
The results of three different model Box type, U-type and inverted U-type is compared. The
experimental results revealed that the present breakwater design attenuates low wave reflection
and high energy dissipation, when subjected to shorter period waves in shallower waters. Ataur
et. al. (2013) examined the effect of porosity of submerged and emerged porous breakwater
under various wave condition. The test result revealed that the efficiency of breakwater is not
only the porosity of the breakwater, but also the relative submergence and relative width of the
breakwater have strong influences in reflecting wave, transmitting wave and dissipating wave
energy. Karmakar and Guedes Soares (2014) examined the dispersion of oblique surface
Page 2
gravity waves caused by the presence of multiple bottoms standing flexible porous barriers in
finite water depth. The eigenfunction expansion approach is used, and both the wide-spacing
approximation method and the direct approximation method are investigated. Grajewska (2017)
performed an experimental case study on the model of submerged rubble mound breakwater constructed
at Baltic coast. The study suggests that the two factors that affect the wave transmission on the lee side
of the structure was relative crest freeboard and steepness of wave the wave passing over the breakwater.
In the recent years, Fang et al. (2018) performed series of experiment on horizontal screen of
various porosity. The effects of layer number, breakwater width, porosity of the upper plate
and incident wave height are investigated. It is observed that the efficiency under long incident
waves is improved by adding the lower plates compared with that of the conventional single or
double layer. Francis et al. (2020) performed experimental investigation on solitary wave
interaction with vertical porous barriers. An empirical formula is also proposed for maximum
wave run-up on the porous barrier, which can be useful in the planning, design, construction,
and maintenance of coastal protection structures. It is noticed that the reflected and transmitted
waves resulting from the interaction do not have the profile of an exact solitary wave. Koley et
al (2020) performed numerical and experimental study on three types of rubble mound
breakwater such as rubble mound breakwater with still water level at the crest, emerged rubble
mound breakwater and submerged rubble mound breakwater. The experimental result is
compared with the numerical solutions for three different structural height and three different
wave height. Elsheikh et al. (2021) experimentally investigated the effectiveness of different
types permeable breakwater including low crested breakwater, floating breakwater and pile
breakwater. Their results are compared based on the wave energy dissipation.
The literature review performed clearly shows that there is a need for further studies to evaluate
the hydrodynamic characteristics of combination of porous breakwaters. The present
experimental investigation is focused on the effect of changing parameter such as porosity,
relative spacing between floating breakwater and rubble mound breakwater, height of
submergence and emergence on the transmission and reflection coefficient of different
combinations of breakwaters. The experimental responses are recorded in the form of incident
and transmitted wave height in wave flume laboratory corresponding to the wave of different
time period and wavelength using Isaacson’s three probe method.
2. Test facility and Model setup
2.1 Test facility
The experimental investigation is performed in a wave flume of total length of 50 m where

channel length of 41.5 m, 0.71m wide and total depth of 1.10 m designed with a maximum
water depth allowed is 0.70 m deep in the Department of Water Resource and Ocean
Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, India. The wave maker with a bottom
hinge flap is installed in a chamber of 6.3 m long,1.5 m wide and 1.5 m deep. An asbestos
sheets are arranged vertically at a distance of 0.1 metres centre to centre to prevent the flow of
any debris in the flume and to attenuate the disturbance brought on by successive reflections,
and to polarise the waves generated. The wave height of 6, 8, 10, 12 cm is generated by
changing the eccentricity of shaft and generator while the time period of 1.4 sec to 2.8 sec is
Page 3
generated with an interval of 0.2sec by changing the frequency through the invertor. The data
acquisition system is connected with the capacitance type wave probe through an amplifier to
record the response of generated wave. Three probes on the front and one at the back of the
structure are placed to measure the reflection and transmission coefficient. The position of the
probes is shown in the Fig 1. To avoid the wave reflection due flume wall an artificial beach
is provided at both end of the flume consisting of slope and rouble mound stone.
Fig. 1: Schematic representation of experimental setup.
2.2 Model setup
The model consists of combination of three different types of waves intercepting structure. The
submerged porous plate of different porosity within 10%   2  40% is considered by piercing
different sizes of circular holes. A fixed floating breakwater of constant porosity 48.37% is
introduced at distance of 95cm from the submerged plate towards the lee side. At the end a
fixed base rubble mound breakwater was placed.
Fig. 2: Experimental investigation in wave flume.
The construction of trapezoidal shape for rubble mound breakwater is done by sandwiching a
rectangular shape between two triangles. The base width of rubble mound breakwater is 73cm
while top width is 15cm. The height of rubble mound breakwater is kept 41cm and 50cm which
make the relative submergence of structure hb/d = 0.91 for submerged condition while hb/d =
1.11 for emerged condition. The porosity of rubble mound breakwater is achieved by using
Page 4
different sizes of concrete balls. The porosity  2  40.21% and  2  35.14% of rubble mound
breakwater is varied by changing the number of concrete balls. As per the shore protection
manual it is suggested that the optimum porosity for the rubble mound breakwater is 37.5%. In
the present study an effort was made to keep the porosity of rubble mound breakwater close to
the optimum value. The relative spacing s/d between the rubble mound breakwater and floating
breakwater is also varied. The responses are measured using wave probes whose positions are
set according to the wave length L. Based on the responses the reflection coefficient
K r2  4 / H i2 and transmission coefficient Kt  H t / H i is calculated using Isaacson’s formula
where H t is transmitted wave height, H i is incident wave height and  is the function of
incident and reflected wave amplitude.
2.3 Properties of structure
In the experimental studies various configuration was made possible by varying the properties
of the model which are shown in Fig. 3 as well as In Table 1.
Fig 3. Schematic diagram of model
Table 1: Details of the Model

Porosity of rubble mound (  2 ) 35.14% ,40.21%
Porosity of submerged plate (  5 ) 10% ,20%,30%,40%
Porosity of floating breakwater 48.37%
Height of rubble mound (submerged) 41cm
Height of rubble mound (emerged) 50cm
Height of submerged porous plate 22.5cm
Depth of submergence 22.5cm
Relative spacing (s/d) 0.489,0.689,1.8,2.92,4.03
2.4 Dimensional analysis

Page 5
Dimensional analysis is the practice of checking relations amongst physical quantities by

identifying their dimensions and units of measurement. Dimensional analysis is a rational
procedure for combining physical variables into dimensionless parameters, thereby reducing the
number of variables that need to be considered. On application of Buckingham’s  - theorem
(Table 2) an equation of the form is obtained as
H H h h h 
Kt  f1  r , i2 , , , 1 ,   (1)
 i
H gT H i B h 
where, H r / H i is reflection coefficient, H t / H i is transmission coefficient, H i / gT 2 is incident
wave steepness, is h / H i relative wave height, h / B is relative plate length, h1 / h is relative
submergence of the structure or plate,  is the percentage of perforations which is defined as ratio
of area of perforations to the surface area of plate and B is the structure width.
Table 2: Predominant variables

Variable Dimension
Wave parameter
Incident wave height (Hi) [L]
Reflected wave height (Hr) [L]
Transmitted wave height (Ht) [L]
Water depth (h) [L]
Wave period (T) [L]
Wave length (L) [L]
Spacing between the structure (d) [ L]
Structural parameter
Plate length (B) [L]
Percentage perforations (  ) [ M 0 L0T 0 ]
Submergence of plate (h1) [L]
Fluid parameter
Mass density (  ) [ M 0 L3 ]
Dynamic viscosity (  ) [ ML1T 1 ]
External effects
Acceleration due to gravity (g) [ LT 2 ]
Now grouping dimensionless parameters, the reflection coefficient K r and transmission

coefficient K t are given by
H H i h h h1 
Kt  f1  r , , , , ,  (2)
 Hi gT 2 H i B h 
H H i h h h1 
K r  f1  t , , , , ,  (3)
 Hi gT 2 H i B h 
Page 6
In this present study similitude is obtained between model and prototype using non dimensional
parameter such as incident wave steepness H i / gT 2 To simulate field conditions of wave
height, wave period, plate length, by application of Froude’s law as in wave motion gravity
effect is predominant in prototype (Hughes, 1993) a geometrical similar scale of 1:30 is
selected.
The hydrodynamic responses are captured in the form of reflection and transmission coefficient
which are then plotted against wave steepness parameter H i / gT 2 . Only non-breaking waves
are taken into account for the evaluation of reflection and transmission coefficient, so the wave
steepness parameter is considered in the experimental study. Due to the breaking of waves, a
significant amount of energy is released which gives incorrect result of hydrodynamic
responses. If wave number are used instead of wave steepness parameter, then the breaking
waves will also get included in the evaluation of hydrodynamic responses. Thus, to avoid the
inclusion of breaking waves, the wave steepness parameter is considered.
3.1 Effect of the porosity of rubble mound breakwater
In Fig. 3(a,b), the transmission and reflection coefficient for the composite breakwater system is
analysed for varying porosity of the rubble mound breakwater. The K t (Fig. 3a) decreases as the
wave steepness parameter H i / gT 2 increases but in the reflection coefficient K r (Fig. 3b) increases
with increase in H i / gT 2 .
0.8
0.16
2 = 35.14% 2 = 35.14%
0.7
2 = 40.21% 0.14 2 = 40.21%
Transmission coefficient
Reflection coefficient
0.6 0.12
0.10
0.5
0.08
0.4
0.06
0.3
0.04
0.2 0.02
0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
2
Hi/gt Hi/gt2
(a) (b)
Fig. 3: Variation of (a) transmission coefficient (b) reflection coefficient versus wave steepness
parameter H i / gT 2 for varying porosity of rubble mound breakwater.
The variation could be attributed due to fact that as the wave steepness increases the chance of
interaction of wave with the structure increases. The transmission coefficient within
0.32  Kt  0.51 is found to be minimum corresponding to the lower porosity  2  35.14% . This
is because as the porosity decreases the friction between the water particle and rubble mound
increases that causes more loss in wave energy and consequently lowers transmission coefficient
Page 7
on the lee side. The reflection coefficient within 0.08  Kr  0.116 is found to be minimum
corresponding to higher porosity  2  40.21% and lower wave steepness parameter. This may be
due to the passage of waves through the structure due to the higher porosity.
3.2 Effect of porosity of submerged porous plate
In Fig. 4(a,b) the effect of submerged porous plate on transmission and reflection coefficient at
minimum porosity of rubble mound break water  2  35.14% and minimum relative spacing
s / d  0.489. is plotted against wave steepness parameter. The minimum transmission coefficient
of 0.28  Kt  0.46 is found at 20% porosity of submerged porous plate while maximum
transmission coefficient of 0.60  Kt  0.88 is noted at 40% of plate porosity. In the case of
reflection coefficient, the variation is opposite to the transmission coefficient. At 40% of plate
porosity the reflection coefficient is found to be minimum. This may be due to the fact that for
highest porosity most of the waves pass through the structure resulting in minimum reflection
coefficient and consequently higher transmissioncoefficient.
0.7
5 = 40% 0.20 5 = 40%

5 = 30% 5 = 30%
0.6
5 = 20%
5 = 20%
0.16
5 = 10% 5 = 10%
0.5
0.12
0.4
0.08
0.3
0.04
0.2
0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
Hi/gt2 Hi/gt2
(a) (b)
Fig 4. Variation of (a) transmission coefficient (b) reflection coefficient versus wave steepness
parameter H i / gT 2 for varying porosity of submerged porous plate considering porosity of rubble
mound  2  35.14% and relative spacing s / d  0.489 .
0.9 5 = 40% 0.20

5 = 30%
0.8 5 = 20%
5 = 10% 0.15
0.7
0.10
0.6
0.5 0.05 5 = 40%

5 = 30%
0.4 5 = 20%
0.00 5 = 10%
0.3
0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
Hi/gT2
Hi/gT2
(a) (b)
Page 8
parameter H i / gT 2 for varying porosity of submerged porous plate considering porosity of rubble
mound  2  40.21% and relative spacing s / d  2.92.
In Fig. 5(a,b), the variation of transmission coefficient and reflection coefficient are plotted for
maximum porosity of rubble mound  2  40.21% and relative spacing s / d  2.92. The
transmission coefficient decreases with the increase in wave steepness parameter which may
be due to the fact that as the wave steepness parameter increases the height of the incident
waves also increases which led to the increased interaction with the submerged plate. Further
as the wave steepness is low, then most of the waves passes over the submerged plate without
being interacted with the plate. The minimum transmission coefficient of 0.48  Kt  0.73 is
recorded corresponding to the porosity of 30%. The minimum reflection coefficient is also
found corresponding to plate porosity of 10%.
3.3 Effect of relative spacing between the rubble mound and floating breakwater
In Fig. 6(a,b), the effect of relative spacing on transmission and reflection coefficient is plotted
against wave steepness parameter H i / gT 2 keeping the porosity of rubble mound breakwater
and porous plate minimum. The minimum transmission coefficient of 0.22  Kt  0.44 is
found corresponding to the maximum relative spacing of 4.03 while maximum transmission
coefficient of 0.32  Kt  0.50 is found corresponding to minimum relative spacing of 0.489.
The variation in reflection coefficient is found to be negligible with respect to the wave
steepness parameter. The minimum reflection coefficient is found corresponding to the relative
spacing of 2.92. The maximum reflection coefficient is found corresponding to maximum
relative spacing of 4.03. It is concluded that effectiveness of breakwater increases as the relative
spacing increases keeping the porosity of rubble mound and porous plate minimum.
0.7
s/d = 4.03 0.25 s/d = 4.03

0.6
s/d = 2.92 s/d = 2.92
s/d = 1.8 s/d = 1.8
s/d = 0.689 0.20

s/d = 0.689
0.5 s/d = 0.489 s/d = 0.489

0.15
0.4
0.10
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.00
0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
HI/gT2
HI/gT2
(a) (b)
parameter H i / gT 2 for varying relative spacing between floating breakwater and rubble mound
breakwater considering porosity of submerged porous plate  5  10% and porosity of rubble
mound  2  35.14%.
Page 9
1.0 0.20
s/d = 4.03
0.9 s/d = 2.92
0.16
s/d = 1.8
s/d = 0.689
0.8
s/d = 0.489
0.12
0.7
0.08 s/d = 0.489

0.6
s/d = 0.689
s/d = 1.8
0.5 0.04 s/d = 2.92
s/d = 4.03
0.4
0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
HI/gT2 HI/gT2
(a) (b)
mound  2  40.21%.
In case of maximum porosity of the model (Fig. 7a,b) the transmission coefficient is found
minimum of 0.53  Kt  0.81 corresponding to the relative spacing of 0.489 while maximum
transmission coefficient of 0.60  Kt  0.87 corresponding to relative spacing of 0.689. The
reflection coefficient was minimum of 0.08  Kt  0.108 corresponding to relative spacing of
1.8 while maximum reflection coefficient of 0.102  Kt  0.126 is noted corresponding to
minimum relative spacing of 0489. It is concluded that in case of maximum porosity of the
model the minimum transmission coefficient is found corresponding to minimum relative
spacing. On the other hand, minimum reflection coefficient is found for relative spacing of 1.8.
1.4
s/d = 0.489
s/d = 0.689 0.20
1.2
s/d = 1.8
s/d = 2.92
1.0 s/d = 4.03 0.15

0.8
0.10
0.6
0.05 s/d = 0.489
0.4
s/d = 0.689
s/d = 1.8
0.00
s/d = 2.92
0.2 s/d = 4.03
0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
HI/gT2 H /gT 2
(a) (b) I
mound  2  35.14%.
Page 10
The effect of relative spacing between floating breakwater and rubble mound breakwater is
discussed in Fig. (6-8). In Fig. 6 the porosity of rubble mound breakwater and porosity of plate
is kept minimum while in Fig. 7 the porosity of rubble mound breakwater and porosity of plate
is kept maximum. In Fig. 8(a,b) the variation in the transmission coefficient is found to be
minimum with respect to the varying the relative spacing between floating breakwater and rubble
mound breakwater. The minimum transmission coefficient of 0.28  Kt  0.45 is found
corresponding to minimum relative spacing of 0.489 while minimum variation in reflection
coefficient of 0.10  Kr  0.12 is found corresponding to 4.03 of relative spacing. The maximum
transmission coefficient of 0.31  Kt  0.53 is found corresponding to 1.8 relative spacing while
maximum reflection coefficient of 0.09  Kr  0.15 is found corresponding to 0.689 of relative
spacing. The variation in the reflection and transmission coefficient could be the fluid between
smaller relative spacings becomes increasingly agitated and eventually serves as a barrier for the
approaching incident waves. When the spacing between floating breakwater and rubble mound
breakwater is large the agitating energy gets distributed into large volume of fluid thereby the fluid
in large spacing is calmer than the fluid in smaller spacing hence the calmer fluid do not provide
any kind of barrier to incident wave. The variation in the reflection coefficient in all the
configuration was found to be very less.
4 Conclusion
In the present study the combined effect of floating porous break water, rubble mound
breakwater and submerged porous plate is analysed experimentally. A number of tests are
performed on different configuration and wave responses were captured in the form of reflection
and transmission coefficient. The conclusions drawn from the study is as follows:
 The minimum transmission coefficient Kt = 0.281 is recorded at minimum porosity
 5  20% and  2  35.14% of submerged plate and rubble mound breakwater for short
wave.
 The wave steepness parameter is higher at lower line period which enhance the wave
interaction with the structure and causes lower transmission coefficient
 The fluctuation in the reflection coefficient is found to be small as no modification is
made to the floating breakwater's characteristics. The floating porous breakwater
handled most of the reflection characteristics (porosity, relative width, and relative
draught).
 Minimum reflection co-efficient Kr = 0.082 is recorded at the porosity
 2  40.21% and  5  20% of rubble mound breakwater and submerged porous plate
corresponding to smaller wave steepness parameter of 0.001 and relative spacing s/d =
0.489.
 Due to higher porosity most of the waves pass through the structure which may be the
lower reflection in porous barrier.
Page 11
 The study revealed that the relative spacing and submergence of the breakwater, in
addition to its porosity, have a significant impact on the reflected and transmitted wave
energy.
 The transmission coefficient decreases with decrease in relative spacing due to lower
relative spacing is increasingly agitated and serve as a barrier to the further coming
incident wave.
 The best result was given by the configuration having porosity  2  35.14% of rubble
mound breakwater,  5  20% for porous plate and relative spacing corresponding s/d
= 0.489.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Ministry of Education, Government of India and National
Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal for providing necessary facilities for pursuing the
research work.
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Page 13
December 22 -24, 2022
Adaptation strategies for climate change in water resources- India Specific.

Manohar Arora1 and Sanjay Kumar Jain2
1
Scientist F, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India – 247667;
Email: manohararora19@gmail.com
2
Scientist G, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India – 247667;
Email: sanjay.nih@gmail.com
Abstract
Climate change is a global environmental problem which has been receiving attention both at
domestic and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect both the short-term
variability of water resources through increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods,
and long-term changes in mean renewable water supply. The vulnerability of India to climate
change is further driven by underlying socio-economic concerns of poverty and inequality, the
resource needs of an ever-increasing population, and the development priorities of an emerging
economy Adaptation to climate change is still a relatively new field of work. Mitigation and
adaptation need to be viewed as complementary responses to climate change in general, and
more particularly to its impact on the water sector. Adaptive policies are required to increase
society’s capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Current framing
of climate adaptation in the water sector has been largely inadequate for several reasons. To
help address these, climate adaptation in the water sector should explicitly acknowledge the
existence of multiple concerns and multiple stressors at the outset, and also seek ways of
linking basin-scale analysis to individual actions via infrastructure and institutions where
appropriate. This paper attempts to put forward arguments for integrating indigenous
knowledge into formal climate change and mitigation strategies. These results aim to assist
stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the
vulnerability of the sector to climate change. We argue that currently available scientific
knowledge is adequate to plan and implement adaptation practices in India. In Indian context
we recommend some adaptation process for mainstreaming climate change in national/state
policy. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not
taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation
plans should be made locally specific.
Keywords: Adaptation, Climate Change, India, Vulnerability, Water security
1. Introduction
India’s water resources are already under pressure due to population growth, economic
development, industrialization, urbanization, over exploitation of groundwater and most
importantly the inefficient usages of water. It has been further exacerbated by adverse impacts
of climate change due to number of reasons. Climate change is causing, rising temperatures, and
spatio-temporal shifts of precipitation more severe, unpredictable weather are likely to affect
rainfall and its distribution, as well as river flows and groundwater, and impaired water quality.
The climate change has also resulted in an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation, droughts and tropical cyclones. Floods account for almost 47% of natural disasters
in India in the last 100 years and nearly 20% of the total flood-prone area is affected every year.
Climate change is also expected to increase the frequency of droughts in future.
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There is growing agreement that an adaptive approach to water management can

successfully address uncertainty due to climate change. Although there is limited evidence of
the effectiveness of such an approach, the evidence is growing. Many practices identified as
adaptive were originally reactions to climate variability. Climate change provides many
opportunities for “low-regret” solutions, capable of yielding social and/or economic benefits and
adaptive both to variability and to change. Adaptive techniques include scenario planning,
experimental approaches that involve learning from experience, and the development of flexible
solutions that are resilient to uncertainty. A program of adaptation typically mixes “hard”
infrastructural and “soft” institutional measures (Bates et al., 2008; Cooley, 2008; Mertz et al.,
2009; Sadoff and Muller, 2009; UNECE, 2009; Olhoff and Schaer, 2010). Barriers to adaptation
in the freshwater sector include lack of human and institutional capacity, lack of financial
resources, lack of awareness, and lack of communication (Browning-Aiken et al., 2007; Burton,
2008; Butscher and Huggenberger, 2009; Zwolsman et al., 2010). Institutional structures can be
major barriers to adaptation (Goulden et al., 2009; Engle and Lemos, 2010; Huntjens et al., 2010;
Stuart-Hill and Schulze, 2010; Wilby and Vaughan, 2011); structures that promote participation
of and collaboration between stakeholders tend to encourage adaptation. Some adaptation
measures may not pass the test of workability in an uncertain future (Campbell et al., 2008), and
uncertainty can be another significant barrier.
India has to ensure water, food, and energy security to its growing population and also
need to protect its people from water-related disasters which are likely to become more frequent,
intense, and widespread with time. Recently published Sixth Assessment Report (AR6):
Working Group (WG) 1 (The Physical Science Basis) in August, 2021 by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is quite similar but larger than its predecessor AR5 and differs
from it on one main account i.e. the scientists are now more confident that major cause of climate
change are human activities. Therefore, it would be necessary to initiate actions in time so that
the adverse impacts are mitigated and the damage to infrastructure and population is minimized.
This paper attempts to put forward arguments for integrating indigenous knowledge
into formal climate change and adaptation strategies. These results aim to assist stakeholders as
they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the
sector to climate change.
2.0 Impacts and Vulnerability Components
2.1 Synthesis of Impacts and Vulnerabilities
India is among the countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change due to
geographical location as well as topography and economy and population. More than 40
million hectares (12 per cent of land) is prone to floods and river erosion. Nearly 68 percent of
the cultivable area is vulnerable to drought. Large tracts in hilly regions are at risk from
landslides and some are prone to snow avalanches. With an economy closely linked to its
natural resource base and climatically sensitive sectors such as agriculture, livestock, water and
forestry, India may face a major threat because of the projected change in climate. With climate
change, there would be increasing scarcity of water, reduction in yields of agriculture and forest
biomass, and increased risk to human health and livelihood. Outlining its strategy to meet the
climate change challenge, India released its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)
in June 2008. NAPCC advocates a strategy that promotes, firstly, the adaptation to Climate
Change and secondly, further enhancement of the ecological sustainability of India's
December 22 -24, 2022
development path. NAPCC stresses that maintaining a high growth rate is essential for raising
the living standards of the vast majority of people of India and reducing their vulnerability to
the impacts of climate change. Accordingly, it identifies measures that promote the objectives
of sustainable development of India while also yielding to benefits for addressing climate
change.
Heightened vulnerabilities to disaster risks can be related to expanding population,
urbanisation, and industrialisation, development within high-risk zones, environmental
degradation, and climate change. In the context of human vulnerability to disasters, the
economically and socially weaker segments of the population are the ones that are most
seriously affected. Within the vulnerable groups, elderly persons, women, children—
especially women rendered destitute, children orphaned by disasters and differently abled
persons are exposed to higher risks from water sector.
3.0 Adaptation Component

The most effective adaptation approaches are those that address a combination of
environmental stresses and factors. Strategies, policies and programmes that are most likely to
succeed need to link with coordinated efforts aimed at alleviating poverty, enhancing food
security and water availability, increase carbon sink combating land degradation and soil
erosion, reducing loss of biological diversity and ecosystem services as well as improving
adaptive capacity and improving the food production chain within the framework of sustainable
development. Where possible, adaptation strategies should address social inequalities, lack of
access to resources such as credit, education and decision-making that affects people’s ability
to adapt.
Approaches to adaptation to the impacts of climate change on freshwater resources involve
both topdown and bottom-up approaches. Top-down methods involve cascades of information
to support an assessment of impacts and possible adaptation actions (Wilby and Dessai, 2010,
Miller and Yates,2006). The process involves downscaling climate projections, resulting in
local scenarios that are fed into impact models to estimate stream flow or agricultural yield, as
an example. Decision makers then seek to implement strategies that may improve system
performance in the face of those impacts. Bottom-up methods focus on reducing vulnerability
to past and present climate variability, typically in the wake of an extreme event or disaster
such as droughts or floods with the expectation that building resilience to the vagrancies of the
current climate will strengthen capacity to deal with change and extremes in the future. Bottom-
up analysis begins with identifying the vulnerabilities of the system and the factors and
conditions that enable successful coping with climate-related threats at the level of individuals,
household, communities and organizations, and implementing strategies that enhance coping
capacity, with the risk that these coping strategies may involve limited local knowledge and
perception. There are real complementarities of the two methods, and developing specific
policies and methodologies related to adaptation will require a blending of the approaches.
Work on adaptation so far has focussed more on addressing the impacts of climate change than
December 22 -24, 2022
the underlying factors that cause vulnerability to freshwater resources. A successful adaptation
process needs to include adjustments in policies, institutions and attitudes that establish
enabling conditions, accompanied by eventual technological and infrastructural changes. An
effective adaptation process would also hinge on the ability of livelihoods, which includes
social networks, cultural traditions and activities that provide food and income, to be
sufficiently flexible so that no adverse impacts of climate change are discernable on the social
system. Such enabling conditions would clearly facilitate a sustainable development process,
but would also require overcoming factors that cause vulnerability to climate change (Schipper
L. 2007). Climate change challenges the traditional assumption that past hydrological
experience provides a good guide to future conditions. Those responsible for managing water
resources globally are already exploring innovative adaptation strategies in an attempt reduce
their vulnerability to the types of potential climate change impacts described. Existing
assessments show that the need to adapt is greatest in primary sectors, like water resources, but
do not show a clear prioritization for either “hard” or “soft” measures, or for vulnerability- or
impact-focused adaptation. Bates et al (2008). Proposed that integrated water resources
management (IWRM) provides an important framework to achieve adaptation measures across
socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems and also that to be effective,
integrated approaches must occur at the appropriate scales. Water management is based on
minimization of risk and adaptation to changing circumstances. A wide range of adaptation
techniques has been developed and applied in the water sector over decades. One widely used
classification distinguishes between increasing capacity (e.g., building reservoirs or structural
flood defences), changing operating rules for existing structures and systems, managing
demand, and changing institutional practices. The first two often are termed “supply-side”
strategies, whereas the latter two are “demand-side.” Over the past few years, there has been a
considerable increase in interest in demand-side techniques.
3.1 Water Adaptation Options
3.1.1 Diversification of Water Resources
In areas where water supply relies on a single source, the population is highly vulnerable to
reduced rainfall. Diversification of water resources reduces the pressure on single sources and
minimises the risks of water supply systems not providing water of adequate quantity and
quality.
3.1.2 Added Value from Water Resources
With increasing water scarcity, it is crucial to use the available resources in a technically and
economically efficient manner in order to maximise the resulting economic value per amount
of water used. In the development context, it is also important to increase the socially
sustainable value of water by aiming at equitable access and poverty reduction.
3.1.3 Stakeholder Dialogue and Conflict Management
Increasing water scarcity can cause or amplify national or transnational conflicts. Integrated
Water Resources Management (IWRM) aims at the allocation of water resources in an
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equitable, transparent, ecologically sustainable and peaceful manner. Water management

institutions can hereby connect stakeholders and promote policy development.
3.1.4 Strategy and Climate-sensitive Planning
As water is the primary medium through which climate change affects livelihoods and
societies, water expertise must be included in the development of national adaptation strategies.
Cross-sectoral planning instruments and a Nexus approach can improve the quality of water
management and infrastructure, increase technical knowledge, and expand institutional and
financial capacities to enhance water, energy and food security.
3.1.5 Knowledge Management
Knowledge management regarding the interface between climate change and the water sector
is particularly central to reduce uncertainty. Regional climate change projections or impact and
vulnerability assessments help to increase expertise of decision makers and practitioners as
well as public awareness on the need for adaptation.
3.1.6 Ecosystem-based Adaptation
Humankind benefits from a multitude of ecosystem services. Increasing the adaptation capacity
of humans and societies by preserving and making use of these services is called ecosystem-
based adaptation. Floods and droughts, for instance, can be prevented by water storage in
vegetation, soil and aquifers. The main advantage of ecosystem-based adaptation is lower costs
as compared to 'grey' infrastructure investments due to low demand in technical expertise and
materials. Preserving biodiversity is a positive side effect that led to the identification of these
actions.
4.0 Adapted Infrastructure

Changes in amount and intensity of precipitation can lead to a breakdown of the service and
regulation functions of existing infrastructure. As a certain amount of uncertainty always
remains, project design needs to be resilient in dealing with changes that cannot be fully
predicted. Multiuse infrastructure for water storage, flood retention, hydropower production
and/or agriculture has positive effects on all water supply, energy and food security (Nexus
approach) and is hence particularly adapted.
4.1 Proactive Management of Floods
Floods can have serious effects on human health and infrastructure. Early warning and disaster
response systems, a close cooperation of stakeholders, as well as adapted flood protection
infrastructure are needed to lower the impacts of water-related extreme events. Ecosystem-
based adaptation can contribute to flood prevention on the watershed level.
4.2 Inventory of current adaptation actions
The Government of India recognizes that Climate change manifests itself primarily
through changes in the water cycle. As climate changes, droughts, floods, melting glaciers, sea-
level rise and storms intensify or alter, often with severe consequences. Climate change impacts
have direct consequences for water security.
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It is also recognized that climate change adaptation will have to build climate resilience,
strengthened through healthy ecosystem services that rely on well-functioning river basins.
The list of ongoing programme/Scheme in Water Sector are as follows:
1. Namami Gange was approved as a flagship programme by the Union Cabinet in June 2014.
This progamme has created a paradigm shift in the approach to river rejuvenation, pollution
abatement and a holistic approach to river basins.
2. The Swachh Bharat Mission, launched in October 2014, aimed to universalize sanitation
coverage, and has, in the process, improved the water security of communities by reducing the
contamination of surface water and ground water sources.
3. The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana combined the twin objectives of optimizing
investments in storage projects by prioritizing the completion of long pending major and medium
irrigation projects and improving water use efficiency in agriculture through a variety of
measures. This was approved by the Union Cabinet in July 2015.
4. The Dam Rehabilitation and Improvement Programme was approved in 2012, but
implementation started in earnest from 2015. Improving the operation of existing dams,
enhancing their efficiency and life, addressing sedimentation, is an important and sustainable
way to combat floods and enhance water security. The First DRIP programme took up the
rehabilitation of a select number of dams, as well as capacity building of dam operators. Based
on the success of this programme, the Cabinet has, in 2021, approved DRIP phase II, the largest
dam rehabilitation programme in the world.
5. The Jal Shakti Abhiyan was launched in 2019– A national call to action on water recharge and
conservation, making water everybody’s business.
6. The Jal Jeevan Mission was launched in August 2019 to ensure safe drinking water supply to
all rural households of the country. The mission is under implementation in partnership with
States to provide tap water connection to all rural households by 2024, ensuring security of
drinking water to the most vulnerable.
7. The Atal Bhujal Yojana, being implemented from April 2020, heralds a change in the approach
to the management of ground water. Work is in progress to ensure long term sustainability of
ground water resources through a combination of demand and supply side interventions through
community led, Gram Panchayat-wise Water Security Plans through convergence of ongoing
/new schemes. It also aims at inculcating behavioral changes at the grass-root level – creating
water aware communities- toward optimal use of available water through improving the
availability of real time ground water data.
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8. National Water Mission (NWM)- In India, the National Action Plan on Climate Change
(NAPCC) prepared by the Government of India (GoI), in 2008, tasked the National Water
Mission (NWM) with tackling the challenge of climate change in the water sector. The Mission
will take into account the provisions of the National Water Policy and develop a framework to
optimize water use by increasing water use efficiency. Some of the important steps taken by
NWM are as follows-
8.1 Baseline Studies- One of the most important goals of the NWM is to improve the Water
Use Efficiency (WUE) at least by 20%. To achieve this goal, research in the area of increasing
WUE in agriculture, Industry and domestic water is being carried out through State Water and
Land Management Institutes (WALMIs).
8.2 State Specific Action Plan-The State Specific Action Plans (SSAPs) are comprehensive
policy for integrated water resource management to be developed in each State/UT to promote
a sustainable outlook on water governance aligned with the State Action Plan on Climate
Change (SAPCCs) formulated by the States under the National Action Plan for Climate Change
(NAPCC) with technical and monetary support from NWM.
8.3 Sahi Fasal- ‘Sahi Fasal’ campaign was launched by National Water Mission on 14.11.2019
to nudge farmers in the water stressed areas to grow water efficient crops instead of water
intensive crops; and are economically remunerative; are healthy and nutritious; suited to the
agro-climatic-hydro characteristics of the area; and are environmentally friendly.
5.0 Adaptation Priorities

Climate change adaptation in the water sector cannot occur without considering other
changes that are also impacting water availability and demand. Existing agencies in the water
sector have to respond to the exigencies of providing water to all, while addressing concerns
over declining groundwater, disappearing streams, and so on. If climate change is to be
mainstreamed into water sector planning, climate adaptation must become a part and parcel of
existing sector policies and plans.
The initiatives taken in the water sector in the last seven years reflect the understanding of
the importance of water management in reducing vulnerability and building climate resilience.
This understanding has guided our priorities and has informed the design of our flagship
programmes. Focus, in these years, has been on river rejuvenation and holistic river basin
management; enhancing water security sustainably by increasing storage by completing long
pending projects and enhancing the efficiency of existing dams; a national call to action on
water conservation and recharge; sustainable management of ground water; ensuring security
of water supply at the household level with equitable access to water for all, particularly the
most vulnerable. In tandem with this, the hydrological monitoring network has been expanded
significantly, to mitigate the impact of floods and droughts.
The stated goal of NWM is to ‘ensure integrated water resource management helping to
conserve water, minimize wastage and ensure more equitable distribution both across and
December 22 -24, 2022
within states’. The NWM recommends a large number of water supply and demand
management strategies, as well as institutional reform measures. In 2015, the NWM asked that
state governments develop State Specific Action Plans on Water (SSAPs-Water), solely
focused on state-level water management issues, including climate change adaptation.
Although the NWM is officially the agency tasked with climate adaptation in the water
sector, water in India is a state subject; in any case, the vast majority of action needed to address
climate change occurs at lower levels of government. In practice, most states prepared
‘irrigation sector improvement plans’. Frustrated with the lack of a comprehensive, cross-sector
approach to water, in April 2017, NWM began to shift its focus to the preparation of state water
budgets, creating a template that would require states to track all sources and uses of water in
the form of sub-basin-level ‘balance sheets’. Over the next several months, dozens of
consultations were held and a detailed template was presented (GoI 2017). In October 2017,
the then Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) convened a workshop attended by national and
state government officials, as well as non-government actors, at which state governments were
advised to develop SSAPs-Water based on state-level context and requirements.
In Indian context the following adaptation concerns for mainstreaming climate change in
national/ state policy is recommended.
S. No Concern Adaptation Mechanism
1. Flooding Better flood forecasting,
dissemination.
• Improvement of storm water
infrastructure in cities.
Surplus floodwater capture
mechanisms.
Room for the river plans in
rural areas.
2. Declining inflows into reservoirs and groundwater Better management of
recharge. available water resources.
Revise evaporation rate
Decreased dry season flows and springs tables to account for higher
temperatures.
3. Agriculture: Changes in soil moisture, increased • Crop shifting by farmers to
irrigation demand. less water-intensive crops.
Drip Irrigation.
4. Absence of mechanisms to deal with increased Flexibility in inter-state

variability. sharing and within state
reservoir operations.
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5. Decline in Water Quality Interception and Diversion

works to capture the raw
sewage flowing into the river
through open drains and
divert them for treatment.
(I&D)
Sewage Treatment Plants for
treating the diverted sewage.
(STP)
Low Cost Sanitation works
to prevent open defecation
on river banks. (LCS)
River Front Development
works such as improvement
of bathing ghats etc. (RFD)
6.0 Gaps
The climate research and development programs strive to advance the understanding of
the physical, chemical, and biological components of the Earth system, the causes and
consequences of climate and land use change, and the vulnerability and resilience of the earth
system to such changes. A thorough scientific understanding of the causes and historical trends
underlying climate change and its consequences is a must for dealing with the problem. This will
aid in initiating the necessary actions to mitigate the negative consequences. Future climate
projections at the local and regional levels are full of uncertainty. These projections serve as the
foundation for corrective actions such as adaptation projects. As a number of modeling groups
around the world work to improve their models, it is hoped that the regional projections made
by the next generation of models will be less uncertain and useful to planners and policymakers.
The major gaps/barriers in current adaptation planning includes:
(i) Lack of knowledge capacity, financial and human resources, technology, and
infrastructure. - The limited infrastructure and uncertainty in climate change are
the major contributors.
(ii) Poor coordination and awareness - Many organisations, ministries, states are
involved in the water resources management so to manage all the departments is
the main challenge
(iii) Inaccessibility to information and data – The data quality and availability is poor.
(iv) Lack of involvement of user communities – Lack of role of community users in
water conservation.
(v) Other challenges due to growing demands - the challenge is to first provide them
with basic amenities then talk about conserving or adaption.
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7.0 Conclusions
(a) Findings from global assessments of climate and hydrological change are not directly usable
by decision makers at regional levels. There is a need for new guidance on developing
appropriate climate scenarios downscaled to the level of managing water resources.
(b) As climate change adaptation is a complex multi-faceted challenge, better analytical tools
are needed to integrate the various dimensions of the problem. To date, significant effort has
been invested in developing tools to assess the links between climate and hydrology. These
tools offer insights into how large-scale patterns of runoff might change in the future.
Adaptation decisions are not made based on assessments of naturalized runoff but are instead
derived from assessments of how human interactions with hydrology produce positive or
negative outcomes for the economies and ecosystems upon which human communities depend.
These aspects need to be better captured in the available analytical tools.
(c) Integrated water resource development and management framework is required to be
adopted.
(d) Better observational data and data access, work on detection and attribution of present-day
hydrological changes, higher resolution climate models, with better land surface properties and
interactions. This shall be a good way forward for selecting meaningful adaptation options to
development and climate change impacts.
(d) MGNREGA meets basic normative requirements for mainstreamed adaptation action but
that functional and methodological limitations prevent it from taking on a more purposeful role.
Though the scheme is not transformative in nature, it can become part of a multi-pronged
strategy to reduce vulnerability to climate change in India and possibly other developing
countries.
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Ramifications of Climate Change into Hydrological Parameters Using

SWAT : A Review
Verma Priya1, Khare Ruchi2
P.G Research Scholar, Civil Department, MANIT, Bhopal - 462003, India – 160012
1
Email: pristinv6@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Civil Department, MANIT, Bhopal - 462003, India – 160012;
Email: ruchikhare@manit.ac.in
Abstract
The impacts of environmental change brought about by unpredictable atmospheric deviation

should be visible in changes of hydrological factors like precipitation, temperature, and
humidity. These impacts of worldwide environmental change can be deciphered because of the
assertion of meteorological boundaries. The effect of climate change on water assets is being
evaluated utilizing the Regional Climate Model (RCM) under the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) situations and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
hydrological model. A reliable watershed model for simulating the effects of water cycles and
management on water and soil assets is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). By
utilizing non-parametric methods, we anticipate the changing patterns of hydro-climatic
factors, for example, temperature, precipitation for the future which would give a logical
reference to the water resource management. Environmental change contends the existing
water assets management execution by supplementary unpredictability’s. Incorporated water
assets management will upgrade the potential for modification to change. This paper surveys
cutting edge research into the ramifications of climatic changes for the hydrologic cycle and
water resources and talks about the consequences of such changes for future water budgeting
and management.
Keywords: Climate Change, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Water Resources
management, Hydrological Parameters
1. Introduction
The creation of effective adaptation strategies for the administration of water assets that are
adversely effected by scenarios of changes in demand and supply generated by climate change
is one of the biggest problems the scientific community is experiencing(Tabari, 2016). Global
and local climate change is occurring, which can affect rainfall, the allocation of wastewater,
and water supply, according to several publications of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2012, 2013).
Water resources, calamities, hydropower, and environmental factors all play a part in the
hydrological cycle. Understanding land use/land cover, and climatic consequences, and
population changes requires the use of hydrological models. who is able to answer the most
queries utilizing the displayed model. River simulations using hydrological models yield useful
Page 1
information (Viviroli, 2009). Due its significant impact on hydrological cycles, climate change
has been identified as a crucial environmental concern of the twenty-first century. environment
and ecology. Recent studies have concentrated on the implications of climate change on
hydrodynamic problems and water sources (Zhang, 2015). In hydrological models where no
changes other than those resulting from human activities were detected, the considers the needs
on climate change. The authors employed numerous regional climate models to assess the
impact of climate change suppositions in several dynamic hydrological models (Graham,
2007).
Hydrological parameters are influenced by a variety of elements, including long-term effects

like climate change, which modifies the relationship between rainfall and runoff, and short-
term effects connected to human involvement, such dam building and land use and cover
change (LULC). Many academics are concerned about the impact of human-caused climate
change and land-use change on meteorological variables, which have become a significant
issue. Further studies on hydrological processes is required to improve the realism of water
resource management since they continuously predict variable states. For an appropriate
assessment of water resources, watershed modelling must be examined and put into practice.
Arnold first created the river basin or watershed known as SWAT, which stands for soil and
water tool, for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). It is a physically
distributed parameter model created to predict how different land management practises will
impact the production of agricultural chemicals, silt, and streams in huge complexes that
change over time depending on soil, water, and management circumstances. In addition to that,
to setup a SWAT model, a watershed needs to be sub divided into number of sub watersheds.
These are again sub divided into HRUs (Hydrological Response Units) and unique intersection
of soil and land use. In addition to meteorological information, terrain, vegetation, and land use
patterns specific to the basin are also included in this model. It is also used as hydrological tool
for the design of larger river basins.
(Mudigandla, 2022)
2.1 SWAT Model Overview
To forecast the effects of land management on the hydrology, pesticide output, and sediment
productivity of various watersheds under various land uses and soil conditions, the semi-
dispersive, exhaustive continuum hydrologic model SWAT was created (Neitsch, 2009).
In the 1990s, SWAT 94.2 was created and made available, and in 1994 Arnold authored the
first peer-reviewed documentation of a SWAT interface for a geographic information system
(GIS). The SWAT model was created by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) at the
Agricultural Research Service (ARS), which has more than 30 years of modelling expertise.
The USDA-ARS model's essential components are incorporated into the current SWAT model
(Arnold 1998; Hansen, 2013). The goal of the SWAT model is to predict how the climate
Page 2
system would impact water assets, as well as significant sediment and biogeochemical
productions in the area (Holeek, 2001).
Accurate climatic parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, insolation, relative humidity,
and wind speed, are necessary for the model to accomplish this. The model also needs
geographical data, such as DEMs, soil maps, and land use maps, as well as meteorological
parameters, such as river flows..
A physically based parametric dispersion model called the Soil and Water Quality Assessment
Tool (SWAT) was created to forecast runoff, sediment transport, erosion and nutrient transport
in agro - based watersheds under various administration strategies. SWAT use ArcGIS.
Graphical user interface for SWAT tools in ArcSWAT extension.
DEM, Soil Data, LULC
Temperature, Precipitation, Climate SWAT SETUPs
SWAT-CUP
(Parameter Analysis)
Calibration and Validation
NO
Statistically
Satisfactory
YES
Calibrate SWAT model
Result
Figure 1 Flowchart of SWAT methodology

Page 3
2.2 Data Input
2.2.1 DEM Data
Digital elevation models (DEMs) were obtained from diverse sources for various modelled
regions. All maps, including DEM, are preprocessed as follows:
Merge maps (if necessary)
- Data reprojection in the correct UTM range;
- Crop the map to mark the study area with the buffer zone.
- Resample the map to a uniform grid.
- Arrange the layers in an even grid.
ArcGIS Model Builder is used to develop a custom procedure that collects consecutive
commands to automate this operation. These procedures can be adopted by any user who
wishes to preprocess these datasets for model input so that they can be reused in further studies.
2.2.2 Landuse Data
Similar to DEM data, a similar problem arose when building a land use database for model
implementation. The data set had to come from a variety of sources, state and local authorities.
The data needed to be standardized across multiple regions. Data uncertainty had to be adjusted
for location and source.
2.2.3 Soil Data
The same procedures have to be followed for both land use and soil data, but the main
distinction is the data source. FAO provides a worldwide level soil data (Nachtergaele, 2009)
and able to be transformed into SWAT categories. (Gies, 2014). This significantly reduce data
inconsistency and running time.
2.2.4 Other data
In addition, data on management units, crop production, river networks, reservoirs, lakes, and
ponds, as well as data on the monitoring of rivers and water quality, are employed.
2.2.5 Climate change scenarios
Climate scenarios for this study were defined based on IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
(Collins, 2013). RCP4.5 is a stabilization predicament in 2100 in which radiative forcing
decreases by 4.5 Wm-2 without exceeding this value. RCP8.5 assumes moderate technical
advancement, rapid population expansion, and relatively modest wealth growth, all of which
lead to extremely high greenhouse gas emissions. Forcing runoff, sediment, and nutrient
responses in the simulated region with changes in CO2 concentration required corrected values
for daily minimum and maximum temperature, sunshine, humidity and precipitation data.
Page 4
Management procedures, reservoir activity, and groundwater nutrient concentrations were

unaffected, as were other predicted processes.
3. Result and Discussion
SWAT still has certain limitations even though it is frequently utilised in many sectors of
hydrological cycle modelling. There are still some issues and improvements related to the use
of SWAT in India in today's big data era.
(1) Time Scale Problem in SWAT Simulation: Most studies employed the year, season, or
month as the timeframe for modelling and analysis when using the SWAT model, very
seldom used a day as the time interval. The findings mostly support earlier research
showing that SWAT is capable of simulating the hydrological processes of long time
periods, but when the time step is shrunk, the simulations' accuracy declines and, in
particular, the first-class simulations exhibit systematic mistakes.
(2) Uncertainty Issues in SWAT Models: American scientists proposed the SWAT system.
The model's input data, such as the soil type and kind of land use, are based on the
location of the United States. The primary cause of the low accuracy of the model
simulation for the research region with limited data is that Indian scientists must create
an attribution database based on the kind of land use and soil features of the study
region. Concerns exist regarding the simulation's correctness at the parameter input.
Many scientists are now conducting extensive research on parametric uncertainty and
sensitivity analysis.
(3) SWAT Model Update Problem: The link between runoff and precipitation is not
constant in a changing environment, necessitating dynamic real-time flow modelling.
Current SWAT models must be calibrated using current data in order to establish a
restriction and feedback mechanism among the most recent and information to predict
in order to increase the accuracy of forecast outcomes over time. But it takes a lot of
time and effort to use this approach. Future research can include an algorithm based on
the SWAT model's source code so that the calibration process is transformed into the
model's machine learning process, and the model enters learning automatically when
the most recent data is entered into the database. A self-calibration mode for more
precise modelling, this.
(4) Data Sharing and Model Sharing: Data and model sharing are the two fundamental
components of sharing. Sub-regional configurations are possible for data sharing
platforms. Work in regions with few or no land weather stations can be done using the
data set. For instance, Meng et al. (2017) performed SWAT using the CMADS dataset.
SWAT is free software, but users and developers can talk about it. SWAT models are
still based on the GIS platform, which is inconvenient to utilise in actual projects, at the
level of practical application for model users. To make using and implementing the
SWAT model easier, an online version of the model may be developed. You can create
a model sharing platform to accomplish data sharing simultaneously and prevent
Page 5
numerous.
4. Conclusions
Nearly all articles provide positive effects. Numerous hydrologic, morphological, and snow
catchment areas can simply be incorporated to the SWAT model.. In most of the cases, the
model works well. Increased rainfall has an impact on water resources in the form of drainage,
groundwater flow, lateral yields, evaporation, etc. Sensitivity analysis showed that runoff was
primarily affected by soil, groundwater, and plant growth parameters. Depending on time
scales, climate, and land use scenarios, water resource dynamics in response to climate change
will vary. Development of macroscopic hydrological models based on a more physical
understanding of hydrological processes and their interactions. Only by using parameters that
do not require calibration can the problem of climatic and geographical variations be addressed.
Develop approaches for estimating uncertainty in climate prediction scenarios, as well as
hydrological impact modeling and downscaling procedures. Uncertainty measures can provide
estimates of confidence limits for model results and are useful for applying these results to risk.
and political analysis.
5. Suggestions
Based on this assessment, the following recommendations are made to improve the
effectiveness of modeling approaches to assess climate change impacts on hydrological
systems.
(1) Development in Climate Modelling

By developing the capacity to convert existing information into exact mathematical
equations, advance climate modelling. Accurate models of the interconnections
between different processes may be greatly reduced with a better understanding of the
climate system.
(2) Dynamical Downscaling inaccuracy

By increasing the depiction of physical processes at higher resolutions, dynamic scaling
error may be decreased. On the other hand, statistical downscaling's accuracy depends
on the temporal accessibility of regional forecasts so that they may be utilised to
properly examine pertinent factors. When local predictors vary in ways that are not
present in the predictors, many types of variables are employed as predictors. It may be
used to explain any element that has an impact on the local climate.
(3) High Relief in Terrains May Lead to Significant Atmospheric Heterogeneity on a Large
Scale
Large-scale variety of atmospheric factors at various altitudes can result from high
terrain. As a result, testing predictors in these areas at the proper pressure levels can
increase the precision of scaling, modelling, and forecasting for climatic variables.
(4) Climate Simulations Using Different Ensemble Simulations

Page 6
To lessen the bias between observed and simulated climate variables, ensemble
simulations may be built using several GCMs with differing climate sensitivities under
various GHG emission scenarios. We also assume other beginning circumstances.
(5) Climate Change - A New Approach:

The use of advanced statistical approaches (in conjunction with soft computing
techniques) to observe frequency and significant variations in frequency intensity of
severe occurrences. a better knowledge of the linkages between various climatic
variables.
(6) Hydro-Meteorological Model Setups - The Importance of More Comprehensive

Research
More extensive research with better coordinated inputs to model facilities and open
access to hydrometeorological data is urgently needed.
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Page 8
Design of Readout System for Water Quality Assessment with Geospatial

Technologies
Sardar T.1, Mishra S.2, Pandey S.3, Mishra M.4

1,4ProjectAssociate, CSIR-Advanced Materials and Process Research Institute (AMPRI), Bhopal, Madhya
Pradesh 462026, INDIA
2 Principal Scientist, CSIR-Advanced Materials and Process Research Institute (AMPRI), Bhopal, Madhya
Pradesh 462026, INDIA
3 Research Scholar, AcSIR, CSIR-Advanced Materials and Process Research Institute (AMPRI), Bhopal,
Madhya Pradesh 462026, INDIA
Corresponding Email: snmishra07@gmail.com
Abstract
As water is a very precious resource for life, its quality analysis, monitoring, and forecasting
are supreme and critical tasks. Integration of sensors, different components, and different tools
like AI, and IoT controls and alarms society well. Quantum receptor materials prove their
significant role in the sensing mechanism. The active materials change their parameters of
physical, and chemical properties when they come in contact with the target molecules. Optical
sensors are doing significant work with advanced nano receptors. Society relies on the field
test kits like EZ, SPADNS, Quick II by Hach, Sigma, Lamotte for water contamination
detection. These kits are paper-based colorimetry chemo sensors that take nearly 15 to 30 mins
to observe the changes due in the target molecule. The field-based real-time sensor is a portable
and electricity-free chemo sensor that lacks its accuracy in observing the color with an unaided
eye. The sample tested strips are compared with the colored reference strips to know the
contamination level which may vary due to manual errors and environmental light effects. To
compensate, and minimize this issue, a digital readout system is necessary. This study proposes
an advanced readout system for colorimetric paper-based chemosensor. The given system is a
compact, cost-effective, and technically sound wireless readout system. The system reads the
sensing parameter more accurately integrates with the inbuild GPS data. GPS 6M Neo is used
in the proposed system for better quality monitoring.
Keywords: Design, Water Quality Assessment (WQA), Readout system, Arsenic
1. Introduction
Water is fundamental to humanity for a broad range of reasons. Numerous water applications
need quality water for better and safe results[1]–[5]. Water persists in a continual cycle of
evaporation and condensation in the hydrosphere despite the fact, finding pure and clear quality
water is extremely difficult. In society, industrialization is a primary factor that drives growth
and urbanization[3], [6]–[11]. Despite the numerous benefits of industrialization, it has been
highlighted as a serious threat to the ecosystem due to the emission of different harmful
Page 1
substances, gases, solid wastes, and germs of various types into the physical vicinity.
Monitoring the water quality regularly is a perilous and leading task of authorities[10]–[13].
Several material scientists have studied and developed different advanced materials as
receptors for contaminants. Different receptors like Carbon Quantum Dots (CQDs), Graphite
Quantum Dots (GQDs), NPs and several other quantum materials are getting noteworthy as
sensors for contaminants[14]–[21]. Functional groups from adsorbent surfaces often play a
crucial role in determining their adsorption capabilities and features and also determine the
target molecules, which are going to be sensed[22]–[24]. Adsorbents' capability and
performance can be increased with the help of surface modification, which involves adding
certain functional groups to the interface of the receptor under the right reaction conditions and
with the right choice of subunits.
Along with the materials, the industry and researchers have contributed efforts towards the
testing kits of contaminants. Test kits are specially designed for field and offshore applications
to minimize the required time and detect unknown contaminants of water. EZ, SPADNS, and
Quick II by Hach, Sigma, Lamotte are popular paper-based test kits for water
contaminants[25]–[32]. “Varify” Test Kit is capable to check the water quality considering 17
no of parameters such as Lead, Copper, Iron, Fluoride, etc[33]. These test kits are very
important in the field where porting heavy lab equipment and losing time is not feasible. This
paper-based sensing works on the colorimetry principle. The color of the paper spot decides
the quantity of the targeted parameter. But the making difference between color standers by the
naked eye is a complex process that has more possibility of errors[34]–[39].
2. Methodology
Each field test kit contains certain unique chemical sets that must be processed for a specific
time period and then compared to the standard color provided with the assay. Because it is
difficult to identify minor color variations with the naked eye, visible colorimetry has a lower
measurement precision. colorimetry employs instruments such as the photoelectric colorimeter
and the spectrophotometer which are not portable. Color-changing resolution and
concentration determination are needed more accurately with the change in color.
The portable sensing system is incorporation of different components and materials. The device
is separated into several clusters such as input, governing, and output sections. All integrated
sensing systems come under the input unit which is well unified. All device process is
supervised and guided by the driving unit i.e. microcontroller. Figure 1 shows the methodology
chart of the study.
Page 2
Figure 1. Methodology Chart
The full process of sensing the accurate parameter is shown in Figure 2. The water sample is
first collected in the field. The sample water is treated with the chemicals given in the kit. After
the specified time interval, the strip is taken out and scanned in the given proposed design. The
design saves the sample reading and again readout the reference sheets. Based on the reference
sheet, the system draws the intermediated values between the reference spots and gets the
behavior of the reference graph. The value of the sampled water is then correlated with the
reference pattern and then the accurate value of the target parameter is calculated and shown
in the given display.
Scanning the Scanning the Result the

Sample Treating
reference sample accurate
Collection with test kit
sheet sheet value
Figure 2. The process flow diagram.
The proposed design is suitable for all paper-based test kits. The design has the ability to caliber
easily and provides steady results. The design is an integration of different nodes of the module
which are named input, governing, and output sections. All sensors come under the input
section which has GPS 6M Neo, TCS 34725, cuvette, and cuvette holder. The light sensor and
cuvette holder also decides the accuracy of the readings. The strips are tested with different
distances and some optical instruments like a lens (f 15mm) and mirror. The most accurate
results are marked. The integration of different components is simulated electrically with the
Page 3
help of codding and confirmed practically as shown in Figure 3. The programme is codded in
C language with simple functions.
Figure 3. Circuit Simulation of the proposed design.
4. Conclusion
Arsenic is very toxic component of the water which deteriorates the human life cycle.
Numerous field kits are available in the market but lack at accuracy and sensitivity. The unaided
eye is not that accurate with the time and environmental light effects. The optical device is
accurate, and sensitive on the nano level with quantum dots. This research provides a
sophisticated readout technique for a colorimetric paper-based chemosensor. The presented
system is a compact, low-cost, portable, low-powered and technically sound wireless reading
system. The technology reads the sensor parameter more precisely and combines it with the
built-in GPS data. In the suggested system, GPS 6M Neo is employed for enhanced quality
monitoring.
5. Acknowledgement
The authors like to acknowledge Director CSIR-Advanced Materials and Process Research
Institute, Bhopal for every support and suggestion
6. Future Work
Page 4
The plan is to design and develop an integrated sensing system with optical fiber, that maps
the data more accurately with the use of Artificial Intelligence, and Regression models.
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Variation in sinuosity concerning river migration: A case study of the

Sutlej River in Panjab
Nath, A.1, Ahmed S.S.2, Prakash S.3 , Ghosh S.4
1
Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology ,Silchar, INDIA – 788010; Email:
apurban6@gmail.com
2
Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, INDIA – 788010; Email:
sadullasayed@gmail.com
3
Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, INDIA – 144011; Email:
satya14492@gmail.com
4
Dr., Assistant Professor, National Institute of Technology ,Silchar, INDIA – 788010; Email:
susmita@civil.nits.ac.in
Abstract
River channels tend to alter and move due to human and natural influences, which can cause
devastating floods. It is now possible to analyze fluvial regimes in detail using geospatial
analysis and large datasets. The Sutlej River stretches between Ludhiana and Harike site were
explored. The study area has 12 sections (10 Km per section). For each section, sinuosity was
calculated. Three sections (SSI > 1.5) examine meandering, and the rest nine sections
consider as braided as per sinuosity analysis, where maximum sinuosity was observed in
section E (near Miani). Except for segment I (near Bhoda), every section follows a gradual
increase in sinuosity. Therefore, particularly for sections C, F, H, and J, migration rates fell
by about a fifth over the study period. On the other hand, the river moving over each segment
is determined using GIS technology to understand those sections' physical characteristics
better. This study aimed to identify prospective migrating river channel zones and examine
change over 15 years. After a morphological investigation by quantifying river migration, the
study tries to develop a relation between river migrations in context with sinuosity. It had
been observed by this study that a little variation could affect river morphology significantly.
We found a relationship between sinuosity and migration rate change throughout the study.
Where the river becomes more steady as the sinuosity rises, this work is significant because
river development information is valuable to managers of river basins and water resources.
For restoration, determining the river's behavior to channel change is crucial.
Keywords: River Meandering, Sinuosity, River Migration, River Morphology
1. Introduction
Generally, most Indian rivers run maximum length by the alluvial stage. Thus, alluvial river
characteristics are vital for the Indian River management community. Riverbank erosion
frequently occurs in alluvial flood plain rivers (Nath et al., 2013). In this stretch, rivers
regularly diverge, carrying huge amounts of sediment upstream and depositing it
downstream—the river shape changes over time along the reaches. River morphology defines
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December 22 -24, 2022
the cross-sectional shape of a river channel and the process of sedimentation and erosion
from banks and beds (Brice, 1983).
A stream's pattern changes as it flows away from the source via different terrain. The
river can be classed into three stages: straight, mender, and braided (Ikeda et al., 1981). The
most important morphological feature of meandering is sinuous (Barman, P. and Goswami,
D.C. 2015). The four river regimes are sinuous (SSI 1.3), mildly meandering or Braided (SSI
1.3-1.5), meandering (SSI 1.5-2.0), and strongly meandering (SSI 2.0), according to
Schumm's model, 1963. A straight river which is generally observed at the starting stage of
the river never follows the sinuous course(Kumar et al. 2016). Most meandering rivers are
caused by excessive turbulence, river slope, stream-flow, and bed and side resistance. This
meandering nature has always fascinated engineers and scientists (Ashwini et al., 2020).
Progressive migration is a lateral change caused by gradual bank erosion. Migration occurs
by eroding the outside (concave) bank and depositing eroded material on the interior
(convex) bank (Ikeda et al. 1981). A single channel's extemporaneous growth to high
sinuosity values is called meandering.
Any change in river geometry within the framework of a drainage basin's cross-section,
pattern, or network is considered river migration. It helps us understand how the channel
pattern varies across time and space. Other planform aspects of meandering rivers include
width variation and bar development (Brice, 1983). Indeed, researchers have spent years
studying meandering reaches and their geometric properties (Panda and Bora 1992, Aswathy
et al. 2012). A shifting investigation of the Ganga River yielded two outcomes. The first
result showed higher erosion on the river's west bank, and the second showed a river
constantly migrating westward in distinct time series. In this study, the river location was
determined and compared to previous years' data to quantify shifts in river position.
Because the sinuosity of the stream has decreased, the flood potential has also increased
(Bhatt et al. 2018). As a result, river meandering is one of the primary factors influencing
flood scenarios directly and indirectly. Therefore researchers are increasingly using remote
sensing techniques (Kotoky et al.2012, Rawat et al.2015) to map and analyze surface
phenomena such as the determination of sinuosity index and changes in river path over time
can be identified (Singh et al.2014).
Surrounded by the Vindhya Mountains, the Sutlej River is the province's longest river. In
India, it runs across Himachal Pradesh. Its length is 1450 km. The area is part of the Tethys
belt and comprises Precambrian cretaceous strata. The rocks are primarily brittle and prone to
mass movements. Alluvial terraces, strath terraces, alluvial fans, debris cones, fluvial-
lacustrine deposits, scree, and talus cone are the principal geomorphic features found
throughout the valley (Phartiyal B, Kothyari GC, 2014). During this century, there were a
lot of storms that caused problems in the catchments. On August 1, 2000, a 50-foot-high
Sutlej river flood killed 200 people in Kinnaur and Shimla districts. It has shifted by roughly
1.3 to 3.2 kilometers maximum in numerous sites in the Ropar Ludhiana, Jalandhar, and
Firozpur districts between 1990 and 2003.
In the present study, geospatial analysis is performed to understand the meandering
behaviors of the Sutlej River. To compute the migration rate, direction, and sinuosity index
for each time frame, the river courses from 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019 were digitalized and
superimposed. It had been understood by the morphological study that an increment of
sinuosity over the valley improves river stability. Therefore changes in the rate of migration
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December 22 -24, 2022
are decreasing day by day.
2. Materials and Techniques
2.1 Study Area
Sutlej River, situated to the north of Vindhya Mountain Range, is a branch of the Indus River.
It is the longest of the five major rivers in northern India in Punjab. It flows through the
Himachal Pradesh and Punjab states of India. It has 1450 km in length. Its tributaries are
Baspa, Spiti, and Beas. Because of its unique topographical setting and plenty of water, the
Sutlej basin, formed by the Sutlej River, has a large hydropower-producing potential.
Like all rivers of Punjab, Sutlej constantly shifts its course. During the thirteen years
(1990 to 2003), it has shifted by about 1.3 to 3.2 km maximum at several points in the Ropar
Ludhiana, Jalandhar, and Firozpur districts. The Sutlej flows alongside the Ludhiana
boundary with the Jalandhar district for 98 km (60 miles). As it leaves Jagraon Tehsil, it goes
marginally to the north towards its approaching junction with the tributaries Beas. Harike is
the major wetland in northern India, with an area of about 285.1 sq. km. The perennial rivers,
Sutlej and Beas, coalesce at Harike, covering Jalandhar, Amritsar, Kapurthala, and Ferozpur.
Geospatial analysis is performed to understand the meandering behaviors of the Sutlej River.
This investigation has found an increase in sinuosity over the valley in recent decades. The
river courses of 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019 were digitalized and overlaid. It had been
understood by the morphological study that an increment of sinuosity over the valley
improves river stability. Figure 1A depicts the location of our study region, and Figure 1B
represents the drainage patterns of the study area. Our study area is approximately 120 km
long, from Ludhiana to Harike.
Figure 1A Study area: Location map

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Figure 1B Study area: Drainage pattern and DEM
2.2 Data collection
In ArcMap 10.1, topographical sheets from the Survey of India (SOI) from 2005 and Landsat
imagery were projected using the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection and the
World Geodetic System (WGS) 84 datum with the 43N zone (Table 1). The topographical
sheets (scale 1:50000) were digitalized so as to overlay the Landsat images from 2010, 2015,
and 2019.
The United States Geological Survey provided the multispectral remotely sensed data
and multi-temporal Landsat data used in this study (USGS). The detailed information about
data collection is tabulated below (Table 1).
Table 1 Landsat Data collection

Number
S. Acquisition Spatial
Year Satellite Sensor Path Row of
No. Date Resolution
Bands
Landsat
1 2010 4-5 ETM 148 038&039 11-11-2010 7 30
Landsat- OLI-
2 2015 8 TRIS 148 038&039 08-10-2015 11 30
Landsat- OLI-
3 2019 8 TRIS 148 038&039 04-11-2019 11 30
2.3 Technique
Figure 2 shows the techniques used in this investigation of morphological study. And each
one is mentioned one by one.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 2 Flow chart of the methodology
2.2.1 River Sinuosity Index
The sinuosity index was derived by layer stacking various bands. The data were then pre-
processed and digitalized for each decade. Sinuosity index was calculated as the ratio of the
length of the channel's centerline to the straight-line reach under consideration.
The river in the study area was divided into 12 equally offset sections at a distance of 10
km each. The centerline path and straight-line reach between each section were calculated
using topographical sheets from 2005 and Landsat data from 2010, 2015, and 2019 (Table 1).
The following formula has been used to calculate the sinuosity index of each reach (Eq. 1).
(1)
Where P represents the sinuosity index of the reach, Lcmax represents the length of the
channel's centerline in the reach, and LR represents the straight-line extent of the channel. The
outcome of the sinuosity analysis is listed in Table 2.
2.2.2 Computing river migration
The original river course from 2005 was divided into 12 sections. On the river channel from
2010, 2015, and 2019, section lines were set over the river course, and migration length and
direction of migration were estimated at each section. The migration rate was obtained by
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December 22 -24, 2022
dividing the migration by the time interval between 2005 and the Landsat acquisition year.
The migration lengths, rate, and direction of migration of the river sections are shown in
Table 3.
3.1. Analysis of sinuosity of the river:

Table 2 shows the sinuosity index for all different years.
Table 2 Sinuosity Index
Sinuosity Index Average
Section Sinuosity Remarks
2005 2010 2015 2019
A 1.32 1.38 1.39 1.5 1.40 Braided
B 1.20 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.46 Braided
C 1.20 1.4 1.65 1.70 1.50 Meandering
D 1.30 1.38 1.40 1.60 1.42 Braided
E 1.50 1.55 1.58 1.80 1.60 Meandering
F 1.30 1.33 1.39 1.60 1.40 Braided
G 1.4 1.42 1.5 1.70 1.50 Meandering
H 1.4 1.42 1.45 1.60 1.46 Braided
I 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.30 1.35 Braided
J 1.25 1.30 1.40 1.45 1.35 Braided
K 1.20 1.30 1.50 1.60 1.4 Braided
L 1.22 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.28 Braided
The maximum section of the river sinuosity index is less than 1.5 for all reaches
except sections C, E, and G. Therefore, maximum sections are categorized under braided
sections where all the sections within this study area follow an increment trend of sinuosity,
which implies the rate of migration is decreasing day by day, which will make the river more
stable. It is also observed that for section C, the sinuosity was 1.2, which was under the
braided category in the year 2005. But now, due to the increment of sinuosity, it is
categorized as a meandering section of the river. It is also observed for sections B, D, H, and
K, a significant increment of sinuosity over the period. Suppose sinuosity values follow a
similar pattern and the section will soon be categorized from braided to meandering. Figure 3
shows the sinuosity parameter of the Sutlej River for all sections.
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
Average 2005 2010 2015 2019

2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Figure 3 Sinuosity changes over Sutlej River

A massive increment of sinuosity was observed during the last five years. Therefore a
substantial increasing trend was found for the entire segment. Therefore an investigation is
required to understand the impact due to sinuosity increment should be required to
understand the morphological change under the study section.
3.2. Analysis of river morphology

The effect of sinuosity on river movement can be determined by morphological analysis of all
segments. As a result, river migration is measured over time (Figure 4), and the results are
presented below (Table 3).
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 4 Shifting of Sutlej River
Table 3 Morphological Analysis of all sections.
2005-2010 2005-2015 2005-2019

Rate m/year
Rate m/year
Rate m/year
Distance, m
Distance, m
Distance, m
Migration
Migration
Migration
Direction
Direction
Direction
Section
Lateral
Lateral
Lateral
S. No.
1 A 169.27 33.85 N 142.35 14.23 N 151.01 10.79 N
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December 22 -24, 2022
2 B 341.79 68.36 N 461.87 46.19 N 381.50 27.25 N
3 C 402.22 80.44 S 508.69 50.87 S 234.72 16.77 S
4 D 143.39 28.68 N 254.19 25.42 N 320.12 22.87 N
5 E 222.55 44.51 N 428.69 42.87 N 455.61 32.54 N
6 F 718.38 8 N 580.77 58.08 N 472.85 33.78 N
7 G 162.14 32.43 S 210.01 21.00 S 201.65 14.40 S
8 H 60.54 12.11 N 52.70 5.27 N 35.95 2.57 N
9 I 180.05 36.01 S 101.66 10.17 S 645.03 46.07 S
10 J 299.33 59.87 S 266.06 26.61 S 250.13 17.87 S
11 K 406.53 81.31 N 452.43 45.24 N 494.84 35.35 N
12 L 316.40 63.28 S 533.08 53.31 S 647.38 46.24 S
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December 22 -24, 2022
2005-2010
2005-2015
2005-2019
150
100
River Migration Rate (m/year)
North
50
0
A B C D E F G H I J K L Sections
South
-50
-100
Figure 5 The overall course migration in the specific direction of the study area.
A huge decrement in river migration was observed over the sections. Especially for
sections A, B, C, F, J, and K, a significant reduction in migration was observed. Apart from
that, for section I, an increment in river migration was also observed during the last decade.
Therefore, a reduction of sinuosity was also observed during sinuosity analysis.
3.3. Rate of change of Banks
For the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019, the rate of change of both banks was determined,
and a shift in the rate of change of each bank was calculated each year. Figure 6 and 7 show
the rate of change of the upper and lower banks, respectively.
A huge decrement in river migration is observed for all upper and lower bank segments
except section I. Especially for some sections such as sections C, F, H, and J, where the rate
of migration decreased almost one-fifth time within the study period, and for sections, B, G,
and K, almost one-third decrement in river migration was also observed during the study.
Page 10
December 22 -24, 2022
2005-2010
80 2005-2015
2005-2019
Upper Bank Migration Rate (m/year)
60
40
North
20
0
Sections
South
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
Figure 6 Change of the upper banks
2005-2010
250 2005-2015
2005-2019
200
Lower Bank Migration (m/year)
150
100
North
50
0
South
A B C D E F G H I J K L Sections
-50
-100
Figure 7 Change of the lower banks
Page 11
December 22 -24, 2022
Over the study period, the majority of the sections have increased in sinuosity, and as a
result, the rate of migration has decreased. Whereas segment I demonstrated that decreasing
sinuosity could lead to a higher migration rate. Sinuosity has been demonstrated to be linked
to river migration activities. It's crucial to comprehend the relationship between migration
rate and sinuosity to understand river morphology.
3.4. Sinuosity Migration relation
The amount of increment of sinuosity and its effect on river migration are analyzed. The
output of the study is discussed below.
160 2
1.8
140
1.6
120 2005-2010
1.4
100 2005-2015
1.2
80 1 2005-2019
0.8 2005
60
0.6
40 2010
0.4
20 2015
0.2
0 0 2020
Figure 8 Sinuosity migration relation toward morphology
Except for section I, all other portions continue to grow in sinuosity, according to this
investigation (Figure 8). The most effective portion preventing river migration was Section C.
Compared to 2005; the segment has become about 380 % more stable, with the biggest
sinuosity increase across the whole sections (42 %). Sections H and F were more stable, with
more than 300 percent higher stability achieved during the study and a more than 15%
increase in sinuosity. Sections A, B, and J have more than 150 percent stability. Except for
section I, there has been a decrease in migration rate and an increase in sinuosity. In section I,
where river stability is decreased by almost 22% and nearly 4% sinuosity decrement over the
study period. By this study, it has been concluded that a slight change significantly influenced
river migration in sinuosity.
Page 12
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4. Conclusions
The reaches of the Sutlej River between Ludhiana to Harike site, having a length of 120 km
(approx.), was studied. The study area is divided into 12 sections. Out of 12 sections, 3 of
them consider meandering as their SSI value above 1.5. The sinuosity of each section is
calculated for every five-year interval. Shifting was estimated throughout each section to
comprehend the river migration process co-related to sinuosity over time. The highest
sinuosity was found in Section E (near Miani) with an SSI of 1.8. In this study, it was
identified, that section C (near Gidder Pindi) was the most effective at preventing river
movement. The segment has grown 380 percent more stable since 2005, with the most
significant rise in sinuosity across the sections (42 percent ). Sections H (near Sidhwan Bet)
and F (near Rampur) have become 300 % more stable, rising sinuosity by over 15% since
2005. A significant reduction in the rate of migration was observed during this study for all
those sections. Except for section I (near Bhoda), all the sections have become more stable
than in earlier decades with the sustainable rise of sinuosity. But for section I, the sinuosity
was decreased during the study period; therefore, the increment of river migration makes the
zone more vulnerable considering the 2005 scenario.
The rate of migration increased from 36.01m/year to 46.07 m/year. 22 % increment in-
migration rate is observed during this study, which can be prevented with limited protection.
This study found that zones with the greatest migration potential are found throughout the
river. In contrast, intermediate potential migration zones are found across the study region,
aside from the least potential migration zones. There is no research on the effect of river
morphology on sinuosity variations, especially in this area. This study is significant because
information on river development is valuable to specialists and planners who manage river
basins and water resources. Understanding the river's response to channel movement is
critical to setting realistic restoration objectives.
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Page 14
27th International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental
and Coastal Engineering (HYDRO 2022 INTERNATIONAL) at Punjab
Engineering College Chandigarh,
Solution of unsteady one-dimensional advection-diffusion equation using

fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial
Sumit Sen∗1 and Koeli Ghoshal†1,2
1
Department of Mathematics, IIT Kharagpur, Kharagpur-721302, India
2
Corresponding author
November 13, 2022
Abstract
In this work, the vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration in an open channel
turbulent flow has been studied with the aim of improving the concentration model in an unsteady
transport. For that purpose, an eddy viscosity profile has been used, which has been derived based
on mixing length equation. The governing equation which is the unsteady one-dimensional advection-
diffusion equation, has been solved using the fifth kind orthonormal shifted Chebyshev polynomials.
With the use of the spectral collocation method, the partial differential equation has been reduced to
a system of ordinary differential equations and then it has been solved numerically. The method is
unconditionally convergent and converges everywhere, which has been shown through the analysis of
the spectral radius of the scheme. The proposed solution has been verified with existing analytical
and semi-analytical solutions of the one-dimensional unsteady transport model. Finally, the model has
been validated with a set of experimental data under steady transport condition and a good agreement
has been observed everywhere.
Keywords: Unsteady Turbulent Flow, Suspension Concentration Distribution, Eddy Viscosity, fifth
Kind Chebyshev Polynomial, Chebyshev Collocation
1 Introduction
Transport of suspended sediment plays a crucial role in many physical problems, such as the control and
management of water reservoir systems, flood management, geometric evolution of rivers etc. To compute
the suspended load, knowledge of the concentration distribution is essential. Rouse (1937) was the pioneer
in the study of the vertical suspended sediment concentration distribution in open channel flows. After
that, numerous studies have been conducted on the vertical concentration distribution (Cheng, 1984; Liu
and Nayamatullah, 2014; Cantero-Chinchilla et al., 2016; Kumbhakar et al., 2018). Most of the studies
that are available in the literature are concerned with the steady vertical transport of concentration
distribution. Considering the generalized bottom boundary condition, Liu and Nayamatullah (2014)
solved the unsteady 1D transport equation by using the general integral transform technique (GITT).
After that, Mohan et al. (2020) and Kundu (2022) also solved the unsteady 1D transport equation by
∗
sumitsen55052@gmail.com
†
koeli@maths.iitkgp.ac.in
1
using the homotopy analysis method (HAM) and fourth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial, respectively.
Though Kundu (2022) has solved the transport equation using the Chebyshev polynomial, but in that
study the effect of initial concentration near the bottom boundary has not been shown. Also, in these
studies, the three traditional eddy viscosity profiles - constant, linear and parabolic - have been considered.
Recently, Absi (2021) reinvestigated the eddy viscosity profiles and derived two new profiles. These are
- (1) the exponent-type profile of eddy viscosity and (2) an eddy viscosity based on an extension of von
Karman’s similarity hypothesis. It has been shown that these profiles improve the prediction accuracy
for velocity distribution, particularly for high Reynolds numbers. Thus, in this study, the 2nd type of
eddy viscosity profile of Absi (2021) has been considered for the improvement of the accuracy of vertical
concentration distribution.
In recent years, the Chebyshev polynomials have become increasingly crucial in analysis and its
applications due to their principal feature of producing accurate results with fewer degrees of freedom. In
literature, there are four well-known kinds of Chebyshev polynomials. Those are first, second, third and
fourth kinds, which are denoted as Tn (x), Un (x), Vn (x) and Wn (x), respectively. A number of studies
concerned with these four kinds are available in the literature (Sweilam et al., 2015, 2016; Kundu and
Ghoshal, 2021; Kundu, 2022). Applying the extended Sturm-Lioville problem for symmetric functions,
Masjed-Jamei (2006) introduced a basic class of symmetric orthogonal polynomials (BCSOP). The well-
known four kinds of Chebyshev polynomials are particular cases of BCSOP. Also, two new classes of
orthogonal polynomials, namely fifth and sixth kinds of Chebyshev polynomials, can be deduced from
the BCSOP. In the literature, there are some studies regarding the numerical analysis using the fifth kind
shifted Chebyshev polynomial, such as studies of Abd-Elhameed and Youssri (2018) and Ali et al. (2022),
etc. But as far as the authors’ knowledge, no studies have been found in the concentration distribution
using the fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial.
Thus, the work aims to solve the unsteady 1D transport equation with the generalized boundary
condition by using the fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial, which is a more general method than
the four well-known kinds of Chebyshev polynomial. Also, the present study considers a different eddy
viscosity profile other than the linear, constant and parabolic profiles to improve the accuracy of the
vertical concentration distribution.
2 Mathematical Modelling
The advection-diffusion equation is the governing equation for non-equilibrium transport of suspended
sediment. Its generalized form in unsteady three dimensional flow is given as

∂c ∂(uc) ∂(vc) ∂(wc) ∂ ∂c ∂ ∂c ∂ ∂c
+ + + = (εm + εsx ) + (εm + εsy ) + (εm + εsz ) (1)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂z ∂x ∂x ∂y ∂y ∂z ∂z
where c is the mean concentration of suspended sediment; t denotes the time; u, v and w are the mean
velocities along the stream-wise x, transverse y and vertical z direction respectively; εsx , εsy and εsz are
sediment diffusion coefficients; εm is molecular diffusivity, which is negligible in turbulent flow. Then for
an unsteady uniform 1D flow, Eq. (1) reduces to

∂c ∂ ∂ ∂c
− (w0 c) = εsz (2)
∂t ∂z ∂z ∂z
in which the vertical component of velocity w has been replaced by the downward settling velocity of
sediment particles −w0 . The sediment diffusivity εsz is related to the turbulent diffusivity or eddy
viscosity εt by the following relation
εsz = βεt (3)
2
where β is the proportionality factor, also known as the inverse of the Schmidt number. Many expressions
are available in the literature for eddy viscosity εt . Traditional constant, linear and parabolic types eddy
viscosity are expressed as (van Rijn, 1987)
• Constant type
κ
εt = u∗ h (4)
α1
• Linear type
κ
εt = u∗ z (5)
α2
• Parabolic type
εt = κu∗ z(1 − z/h) (6)
where u∗ is the shear velocity, h is the channel depth and κ is the von-Karman constant, whose universal
value is 0.41. According to van Rijn (1987), values of α1 and α2 are 6 and 3, respectively. Based on the
concepts of velocity and length scale, recently, Absi (2021) analytically derived an eddy viscosity based
on an extension of von Karman’s similarity hypothesis. The formulation of that eddy viscosity profile is
given below
εt = wm lm f (z) (7)
where wm is the mixing velocity, lm is the mixing length and f (z) is an additional term to incorporate
the damping effect of turbulence near the free surface. Expression of wm , lm and f (z) are given as
√ p −Ck z
wm = Cµ1/4 k = Cµ1/4 Dk u∗ e h (8)

−z/h
lm = κh 1 − e (9)
f (z) = 1 − e−Bf (1−z/h) (10)

√ 1/4
where k is the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Ck and Dk are empirical constants with Dk = 1/Cµ
and Ck = 1 (Nezu and Nakagawa, 2017) and Bf is a damping coefficient (Hosoda, 1990). Using the
expressions given by Eqs. (8) - (10), Eq. (7) becomes

εt = κhu∗ e−z/h 1 − e−z/h 1 − e−Bf (1−z/h) (11)
Eddy viscosity profiles given by Eqs. (4)-(6) and (11) are plotted along with the experimental data of
Ueda et al. (1977) and Nezu and Rodi (1985) in Fig. 1. It has been observed that the eddy viscosity profile
obtained by Absi (2021) shows better agreement with the experimental data. Thus, in this study, this
profile of eddy viscosity have been considered while comparing with experimental data. The governing
equation (2) has been non-dimensionalized by introducing the following dimensionless parameters
tu∗ z c w0 εt
τ= , η = , C+ = , ω0 = , K(η) = (12)
h h Ca u∗ u∗ h
a
where Ca is the reference concentration at the reference height ηa = h. Then the governing equation
becomes
∂C + ∂C + ∂C +

∂
− ω0 = K(η) (13)
∂τ ∂η ∂η ∂η
3
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
10-3 10-2 10-1 100
Figure 1: Comparison of the eddy viscosity distributions with the experimental data of Ueda et al. (1977)
and Nezu and Rodi (1985).
To solve the dimensionless governing equation (13), an initial condition and a pair of boundary conditions
is needed. The initial condition can be taken as arbitrarily as
C + (η, τ = 0) = C0+ (η) (14)
Following Cheng (1984), the boundary conditions can be taken as
∂C +
K(η) + ω0 C + = 0 at η = 1 (15)
∂η
∂C +
K(η) + (ω0 − B) C + = −BC∗ at η = ηa (16)
∂η
where B and C∗ are depth independent parameters. In this study, the governing equation has been solved
using the fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial. Section 3 presents some basic preliminaries of the
fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial and section 4 describes the procedure of the solution.
3 Some Basic Preliminaries of Fifth Kind Shifted Chebyshev Polyno-

mial
3.1 Chebyshev Polynomials of Fifth Kind
The fifth kind Chebyshev polynomials X̄n (x) are orthogonal polynomials of degree n in x on the closed
interval [−1, 1]. The orthogonality relation of X̄n (x) is defined as (Abd-Elhameed and Youssri, 2018)
Z 1 (
x2 hn , if n = m,
√ X̄n (x)X̄m (x)dt = (17)
1−x 2 0, if n ̸= m,
−1
where (
π
22n+1
, if n even,
hn = π(n+2) (18)
n22n+1
, if n odd.
To normalize the monic Chebyshev polynomials of the fifth kind, Abd-Elhameed and Youssri (2018)
define Xn (x) as
1
Xn (x) = √ X̄n (x) (19)
hn
4
Therefore, polynomials Xn (x) are orthonormal on the closed interval [−1, 1] and Eq. 17 can be re-written
by replacing X̄n (x) with Xn (x) as
Z 1 (
x2 1, if n = m,
√ Xn (x)Xm (x)dt = (20)
−1 1 − x2 0, if n ̸= m.
3.2 Shifted Chebyshev Polynomials of Fifth Kind

To use the orthonormal fifth kind Chebyshev polynomials Xn (t) on [0, 1], the usual transformation x =
2t − 1 is used. The transformed polynomials are defined as shifted Chebyshev polynomials of fifth kind
and it is denoted by Cn (t). Thus Cn (t) can be defined on [0, 1] by
1
Cn (t) = Xn (2t − 1) = √ X̄n (2t − 1) (21)
hi
These√ polynomials are also orthonormal on [0, 1] with respect to the weight function w(y) = (2t −
1)2 / t − t2 as (
Z 1
(2t − 1)2 1, if n = m,
√ Cn (t)Cm (t)dt = (22)
t−t 2 0, if n ̸= m.
0
These shifted Chebyshev polynomials of fifth kind can be generated from the following recurrence formula
(Ali et al., 2022)
s s
hn hn−1
Cn+1 (t) = (2t − 1) Cn (t) + βn+1 Cn−1 (t), for n = 1, 2, 3, ... (23)
hn+1 hn+1
where hi is defined in Eq. (18) and
n2 + n + 1 + (−1)n+1 (2n + 1)
βn+1 = − (24)
4n(n + 1)
q q
with the initial condition C0 (t) = π2 and C1 (t) = 2 3π2
(2t − 1). Now, we are going to state the relation
between Cn (t) and shifted Chebyshev polynomials of 1st kind Tn∗ (t) in the followings:
Proposition 1 The fifth kind polynomials Cn (t) can be expressed in terms of the shifted Chebyshev
polynomials of first kind Tn∗ (t) as (Abd-Elhameed and Youssri, 2018)
n
X
Cn (t) = gn,r Tr∗ (t) (25)
r=0
where 
r
2 δr ,
 if n and r are even,
gn,r = 2 (−1)(n−r)/2 r
n, if n and r are odd, (26)
π 
0, otherwise

and (
1
δr = 2, if r = 0,
(27)
1, if r > 0
5
Shifted Chebyshev polynomials of first Kind The shifted Chebyshev polynomials of first kind
Tn∗ are polynomials of degree n in t on [0,1]. These polynomials can be generated using the following
recurrence formula
∗
Tn+1 (t) = 2(2t − 1)Tn∗ (t) − Tn−1
∗
(t), for n = 1, 2, 3, ... (28)
with the initial values T0∗ (t) = 1 and T1∗ (t) = 2. Therefore, the analytic form of Tn∗ (t) is
n
X n(n + r − 1)!22r r
Tn∗ (t) = (−1)n−r t (29)
(n − r)!(2r)!
r=0
Corollary 1.1 The relation between Cn (t) and Tn∗ (t) can be expressed explicitly from the following two
formulae (Abd-Elhameed and Youssri, 2018)
r n
2X ∗
C2n (t) = 2 (−1)n+r δr T2r (t) (30)
π
r=0
and √ n
2 2 X
∗
C2n+1 (t) = p (−1)n+r (2r + 1)T2r+1 (t) (31)
π(2n + 1)(2n + 3) r=0
where δr is defined in Eq. (27).
Corollary 1.2 Using Eqs. (29), (30) and (31), the explicit analytical expression of Cn (t) can be written
as
n
X
Cn (t) = ρr,n tr , (32)
r=0
where  P n
n/2 (−1) 2 +p−r p δp (2p+r−1)!
2 2r+ 23

2 p=⌊ r+1 ⌋ (2p−r)! , if n is even,
2
ρr,n =p P n−1 n+1 (33)
π(2r)!  (−1) 2 +p−r (2p+1)2 (2p+r)!
√ 1 2
p=⌊ r ⌋ (2p−r+1)! , if n is odd.
n(n+2) 2
where ⌊x⌋ denotes the greatest integer less than or equal to x.
Any square integrable function f (t) can be approximated as the finite combination of shifted Cheby-
shev polynomials of fifth kind as (Abd-Elhameed and Youssri, 2018; Ali et al., 2020)
N
X
f (t) ≈ ai Ci (t) (34)
i=0
where ai , i = 0, 1, 2, ...N are coefficients, which can be determined from

Z 1
(2t − 1)2
ai = √ f (t)Ci (t)dt (35)
0 t − t2
6
Theorem 1. The derivative of order α for the polynomials Cn (t) is given by: (Abd-Elhameed and
Youssri, 2018) (P
n k−α , when n ≥ α,
α k=α ∆k,n t
D Cn (t) = (36)
0, otherwise
and
Γ(k + 1)ρk,n
∆k,n = (37)
Γ(k + 1 − α)
where ρk,n is given in Eq. (33).
4 Numerical Solution
It has already been mentioned in the previous section that shifted Chebyshev polynomials are applied
only to the interval [0, 1]. But in the non-dimensional governing equation of this study, vertical coordinate
η ranges from [ηa , 1]. Thus, for the application of the method, the following transformation has been
used to extend the range of η from [ηa , 1] to [0, 1]
η − ηa
ξ= (38)
1 − ηa
Then Eqs. (13) - (16) are transformed into
∂C + ∂2C + ∂C +
= A(ξ) + D(ξ) (39)
∂τ ∂ξ 2 ∂ξ
C + (ξ, τ = 0) = C0+ (ξ) (40)
K(1) ∂C + (1, τ )
+ ω0 C + (1, τ ) = 0 (41)
(1 − ηa ) ∂ξ
and
K(0) ∂C + (0, τ )
+ (ω0 − B)C + (0, τ ) = −BC∗ (42)
(1 − ηa ) ∂ξ
h i
where A(ξ) = (1−η1 a )2 K(ξ), D(ξ) = (1−η1 a )2 (1 − ηa )ω0 + ∂K
∂ξ , ξ ∈ [0, 1] and τ ≥ 0. To get the solution,
C + (ξ, τ ) is approximated using Eq. (34) as
N
X
+
C + (ξ, τ ) ≈ CN (ξ, τ ) = ϕi (τ )Ci (ξ) (43)
i=0
Substituting Eq. (43) into governing Eq. (39), one gets

N N N
X dϕi (τ ) X d2 Ci (ξ) X dCi (ξ)
Ci (ξ) = A(ξ) ϕi (τ ) + D(ξ) ϕi (τ ) (44)
dτ dξ 2 dξ
i=0 i=0 i=0
Using Eq. (36), Eq. (44) can be expressed as

N N i N i
X dϕi (τ ) X X
k−2
X X
Ci (ξ) = A(ξ) ϕi (τ ) ∆k,i ξ + D(ξ) ϕi (τ ) ∆k,i ξ k−1 (45)
dτ
i=0 i=2 k=2 i=1 k=1
7
p
Now, collocate Eq. (45) at the collocating points ξp = N, where p = 1, 2, ..., N − 1. Then Eq. (45)
becomes
N N i N i
X dϕi (τ ) X X X X
Ci (ξp ) = A(ξp ) ϕi (τ ) ∆k,i ξpk−2 + D(ξp ) ϕi (τ ) ∆k,i ξpk−1 (46)
dτ
i=0 i=2 k=2 i=1 k=1
Additionally, applying the above approximation (Eq. (43)) in the boundary conditions, we get
N i N
K(1) X X X
ϕi (τ ) ∆k,i + ω0 ϕi (τ )Ci (1) = 0 (47)
(1 − ηa )
i=1 k=1 i=0
N N
K(0) X X
ϕi (τ )∆1,i + (ω0 − B) ϕi (τ )Ci (0) = −BC∗ (48)
(1 − ηa )
i=1 i=0
The system of equations (46) - (48) has total N + 1 equations with a total number of N + 1 unknowns,
which are {ϕ0 (τ ), ϕ1 (τ ), ..., ϕN (τ )}. Therefore, the system of equations can be solved using finite difference
method (FDM). The system of equations has been discretized along τ as τj = j.∆τ , where ∆τ is the time
step. Assuming ϕji be the numerical value of ϕi (τ ) at τ = τj , the second order finite approximations of
dϕi (τ )
dτ at τ = τj can be expressed as
dϕi (τ ) ϕji − ϕj−1

i
= (49)
dτ ∆τ
τ =τj
Then after applying FDM, the above system of equations can be expressed as
P Φ(n) = QΦ(n−1) + S (50)
where Φ(n) = (ϕn0 , ϕn1 , ..., ϕnN ), P , Q and S are matrices which can be computed from Eqs, (46) - (49).
Additionally, Eq. (50) can be written as
Φ(n) = P −1 QΦ(n−1) + P −1 S (51)
Now, the system Eq. (51) has been solved with the initial condition Φ(0) = (ϕ00 , ϕ01 , ..., ϕ0N ) which are
determined from the given relation
XN
ϕ0i Ci (ξ) = C0+ (ξ) (52)
i=0
5 Results and Discussions

In order to find the concentration distribution from the governing equation, the value of settling velocity
w0 is required. This study considers the expression of Cheng (1997) for the determination of settling
velocity, whose expression is given as
νf p
w0 = ( 25 + 1.2d2∗ − 5)1.5 (53)
d

∆g 1/3
where νf is the kinematic viscosity, d is the diameter of the uniform sediment particles and d∗ = ( ν 2 ) d
f
is the dimensionless diameter of a particle, in which g is the gravitational acceleration, ∆ = ρρs − 1, ρs

and ρ are the density of sediment and fluid, respectively. The efficiency of the solution of the model using
fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial has been tested by comparing it with existing analytical and
semi-analytical solution.
8
0.995 0.985
0.994 0.984
0.993 0.983
0.992 0.982
Spectral Radius
Spectral Radius
0.991 0.981
0.99 0.98
0.989 0.979
0.988 0.978
0.987 0.977
0.986 0.976
0.985 0.975
5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30
(a) (b)
Figure 2: Spectral radius of P −1 Q for different values of N for - (a) Parabolic eddy viscosity, (b) eddy
viscosity profile derived by Absi (2021).
1 1
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
(a) (b)
1 6
0.9
5
0.8
0.7
4
0.6
0.5 3
0.4
2
0.3
0.2
1
0.1
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
(c) (d)
Figure 3: Comparison of the proposed solution with the analytical solution of Cheng (1984).
5.1 Convergence of the method

To obtain the solution, the proposed method employs the iteration scheme described in Eq. (51), in
which the iteration matrix is E = P −1 Q. The convergence theorem of the iteration scheme asserts that
for a given iterative method and its iteration matrix E, it is convergent if and only if its spectral radius
ρ(E) is less than unity, that is, ρ(P −1 Q) < 1. In Fig. (2), the spectral radius is plotted against different
values of N for different eddy viscosity profiles. Here, N + 1 is the total number of collocating points.
From the figure, it can be observed that spectral radius is less than 1 for all the cases. It has been found
that the spectral radius remains less than 1 regardless of the value of T . This suggests that the method
is convergent. In this study, we have considered N = 30 as it has been observed that for this value of N ,
the solution is stable for all different profiles of eddy viscosity.
9
1 1
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
(a) (b)
1 1
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
(c) (d)
Figure 4: Comparison of the proposed solution with the semi-analytical solution of Mohan et al. (2020).
5.2 Validation of the proposed method with the analytical solution of Cheng (1984)
Cheng (1984) analytically solved an unsteady 1-D transport problem for constant eddy viscosity profile
using Laplace transformation method to determine the non-equilibrium sediment concentration. Fig.
3 depicts the solution of Cheng (1984) and the proposed solution using shifted fifth kind Chebyshev
polynomial, in which continuous lines represent the proposed solution and the dots represent the solution
of Cheng (1984). Values of the parameters V0 , B, C∗ and κ have been considered from the study of
Cheng (1984). Figs. 3(a) - 3(c) depict the vertical sediment concentration distribution at different times
and Fig. 3(d) depicts the bottom concentration distribution with time for four different values of C∗ ,
C∗ = 0.75, 1, 3 and 5. Here κ = 0.35 and A = 0.001 are considered and values of the other parameters
are shown in the figures. The figure shows that the proposed solution agrees well with the analytical
solution of Cheng (1984).
5.3 Validation of the proposed solution with the semi-analytical solution of Mohan
et al. (2020)
Mohan et al. (2020) derived a semi-analytical solution for unsteady 1-D transport problem by employing
Homotopy Analysis Method (HAM). Considering three traditional eddy viscosity profiles - constant,
linear and parabolic, Mohan et al. (2020) showed the distributions of transient sediment concentration
at different times for uniform initial concentration C0 = 1. The comparison between the semi-analytical
solution of Mohan et al. (2020) and proposed solution using fifth kind shifted Chebyshev polynomial has
been presented in Fig. 4. Values of the parameters are displayed in Fig. 4. The results suggest that the
proposed solution corresponds well to the semi-analytical solution.
10
0.9 2
0.8
0.7 1.5
0.6
0.5
1
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5 10 15
(a) (b)
2 2.4
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.7 2
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.3 1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1 1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
(c) (d)
Figure 5: Bottom sediment concentration profiles with - (a), (b) C0 = 0 and (c), (d) C0 = 1.
5.4 Bottom sediment concentration profiles

Fig. 5 plots the bottom sediment concentration profile for different values of B, C∗ and C0 for all the
cases of eddy viscosity. From the figure, it can be observed that the eddy viscosity profile given in Eq.
(11) also shows similar behaviour for bottom concentration as the traditional eddy viscosity profiles.
When uniform initial sediment concentration, C0 = 1, is considered, it can be observed from the figure
that overshooting occurs, i.e. the bottom sediment concentration first exceeds its equilibrium value and
then slowly reduces to it. This happens as the value of B is a non-zero finite positive number, i.e.,
the bed is neither completely absorbing nor reflecting. As a result, when the sediment particles hit the
bottom, there are some of them that remain there and bottom concentration increases. On the other
hand, when C0 = 0 is considered, the bottom sediment concentration does not overshoot its equilibrium.
Additionally, it has been seen from Fig. 5 that the effect of overshooting is magnified when the value of
B is small, .
5.5 Comparison of the model with experimental data under steady condition
It has been observed that at large times, unsteady transport models behave like steady models (Mohan
et al., 2020; Sen et al., 2023). For that purpose, experimental data from Coleman (1981), Xingkui and
Ning (1989) and Einstein and Chien (1955) has been considered to validate the solution of the proposed
model. Two runs from each of the experiment have been considered in this study - Runs 17 and 24
from Coleman (1981), Runs SQ1 and SQ2 from Xingkui and Ning (1989) and Runs S-3 and S-16 from
Einstein and Chien (1955). To validate the model, an expression of eddy viscosity by Absi (2021), given
in Eq. (11), has been used. A Comparison between the proposed solution and experimental data has
been presented in Fig. 6. Good agreement has been observed everywhere, which indicates that the model
11
1 1
Coleman-17 Coleman-24
0.9 Proposed Solution 0.9 Proposed Solution
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(a) (b)
1 1
Xingkui and Ning-SQ1 Xingkui and Ning-SQ2
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(c) (d)
0.5 0.5
Einstein and Chien S-3 Einstein and Chien S-16
0.4 0.4
0.35 0.35
0.3 0.3
0.25 0.25
0.2 0.2
0.15 0.15
0.1 0.1
0.05 0.05
0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(e) (f)
Figure 6: Validation of the present model using exponential eddy diffusivity with the steady experimental
data: (a),(b) Coleman (1981); (c),(d) Xingkui and Ning (1989); (e),(f) Einstein and Chien (1955).
can predict the vertical concentration distribution.
6 Conclusion
Revisiting the advection-diffusion equation, a new solution approach based on the fifth kind shifted
Chebyshev polynomial has been presented in this study for the vertical concentration distribution in an
unsteady, non-equilibrium condition. Besides traditional constant, linear and parabolic profiles, a different
eddy viscosity profile has been used, which has been derived from the mixing length equation. Through
the analysis of spectral radius, it has been shown that the proposed solution method converges for all the
profiles of eddy viscosity. Also, it has been observed that method converges at any time. To validate the
numerical method, the solution has been compared with existing analytical and semi-analytical solution.
Overshooting phenomena has been observed at the bottom for uniform initial concentration. Also, the
12
effect of the depth independent parameters on the bottom concentration has been shown graphically. The
proposed solution of the model also compared with steady experimental data. Good agreement has been
observed everywhere.
References
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fractional differential equations. Computational and Applied Mathematics, 37(3):2897–2921.
Absi, R. (2021). Reinvestigating the parabolic-shaped eddy viscosity profile for free surface flows. Hy-
drology, 8(3):126.
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merical solution for generalized nonlinear fractional integro-differential equations with linear functional
arguments using chebyshev series. Advances in Difference Equations, 2020(1):1–23.
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14
December 22 -24, 2022
A Low-Cost Internet of Things (IoT) based smart sensor system for water
quality monitoring and water pollution detection
Madhuram Mishra1, Shivani Pandey2, Tanmay Sardar1 and Satanand Mishra3

1
Project Associate, CSIR – Advanced Materials and Process Research Institute (AMPRI),
Bhopal
2
Research Scholar, Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR) , CSIR –
Advanced Materials And Process Research Institute (AMPRI), Bhopal
3
Principal Scientist, CSIR – Advanced Materials and Process Research Institute (AMPRI),
Bhopal;
Corresponding E-mail: snmishra07@gmail.com
Abstract
Water is essential for living organisms and used for various purposes which require a certain
quality control, testing and analysis. In present days, due to industrialization and other man-
made and natural activities, the water quality is changing and degrading in many regions.
Many industrial waste and toxic materials are getting mixed in the water sources which
further impose a risk of poisoning. Degradation of water quality affects human and also very
harmful for flora and fauna. In order to address the challenges due to degrading water quality,
there is a need to design a cost-effective water quality monitoring system which is portable
and easy to use for a common man. This work presents a cost-effective detection system for
water quality analysis which is designed to use for water quality monitoring at water sources
near industries for continuous data collection and analysis using optical sensing mechanism.
A battery-operated device is proposed with the capability to measure Arsenic concentration,
pH and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) of water samples. The prototype includes a
communication module for transmitting data for analysis applications. The unique feature of
the setup is that it will serve as an information collection node for further data processing.
This study also demonstrates the capability of the system to process collected data for further
processing. The complete system has different working components for performing specific
tasks like data collection, data processing and transmission. The proposed system is a budget
friendly alternative for preliminary water quality monitoring.
Keywords: Internet of Things (IoT), Optical Sensor, Water Quality, Spectrophotometer,

Color Sensing
1. Introduction
A water contamination detection system with Wi-Fi connectivity is developed and presented
in this work. The system is a cost-effective alternative for water quality analysis. The setup is
portable and can be powered using battery and mobile charger. The proposed detection
system is also used for sensing Arsenic contamination using readily available HACH kit test
strips. The advantage of the proposed system is that it can be used for analysis and
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
contamination detection after proper calibration and further modules can also be added in
future for detection of other water properties [2]. One major advantage of the proposed
system is the provision to transmit data at the central IoT analytics system using internet
connectivity. In the system an optical sensor is used to detect the color variations in the
sample (water solution and test paper). Further we also used test paper strips to study the
working of color detection systems. For the testing of the setup, solution with known
concentrations of Arsenic and test papers are used for obtaining experimental results.
The setup is also used for running MATLAB scripts at IoT analytics platform to analyze the
data and perform different computations. The calibration of the proposed system is performed
by obtaining the values of the light intensity of the known sample and then performing curve
fitting methods. In the setup AS 7341 Sensor is used for detecting the color of paper strips for
obtaining the calibration equation [3].
The unique feature of the system is that it can be updated for detecting different water
contaminants and properties of water. The combined dashboard is added with options to
monitor real time data and different scripts can also be executed remotely for different
applications. A battery-operated setup is also developed for using the system as a portable
gadget to monitor water quality [4]-[8].
The advantage of the proposed system is that it can be used in remote locations for
monitoring water quality and updating real time data. Many systems were developed to
monitor water quality in the past but they lack any option to record the data at the central
system at a low cost. This proposed setup fills the gap and provides a single setup to perform
data analysis, contaminant detection and warning system. An array of the proposed system
can be used to record data for different locations at the same time with cost effective and
user-friendly interface [8].
2. Methodology
In this work a I2C based optical sensor is connected with the microcontroller [3]. The sensor
will collect the light signal from the sample (in liquid form or test paper strip). The optical
sensor will provide a signal according to the light intensity due to the sample [4]. The sensor
AS7341 is capable of detecting colors centered at a total eight different wavelengths [5].
There are provisions in the printed circuit board and the 3D printed enclosure to attach a test
strip. The block diagram of the setup is shown in Figure 1.
Page 2
December 22 -24, 2022
Water Sample
Test Paper
Microcontroller OLED Screen
Optical Sensor
Wi-Fi Connectivity
Inter Integrated
Circuit (I2C) Interface User Device
Figure 1 Block Diagram of the Water Quality Sensor System
2.1 Microcontroller
The major components of the proposed system are illustrated in the block diagram. The main
section of the system is Microcontroller board, the ATMEGA 328 microcontroller and Node
MCU based prototype is used. The local display of the setup includes an OLED screen with
option to display 128x64 pixels using I2C interface techniques.
2.2 IoT Interface
For Internet of Things based data analytics an interface is developed by configuring the Node
MCU development board as a local web server. The data obtained from the sensor connected
at the microcontroller is further stored and visualized at the IoT interface. The option of
running MATLAB scripts is used to make the changes in the setup to display adjusted values
in real time.
2.3 Optical Sensors
The optical sensor AS 7341 provides 8 channels of wavelength specific data for detecting
color in the visible spectrum. In the proposed setup the wavelength of 505-525 nm specific
data from the optical sensor is stored and uploaded at the IoT dashboard.
2.4 Battery Monitoring System
In the battery-operated portable version of the system, a battery management system (BMS)
is added to control the charging of the Li-Ion battery. The battery monitoring system also
helps in controlling the charging and maintaining proper temperature of the battery.
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
3. Experimental Setup
The details of the different sections of the prototype are included in the experimental setup
section
3.1 Electronic System
The setup developed for initial testing and analysis is shown in Figure 2(a) with rechargeable
battery Figure 2(b) OLED screen Figure 2(c) changes observed in the light intensity Figure
2(d) Setup with Wi-Fi connectivity. In this work two different prototypes (Prototype A and
Prototype B) were developed, the major difference between prototype A and prototype B is
that the Prototype A includes a Wi-Fi option which is used for viewing the real time data on a
connected desktop computer or mobile device. Both the variants have support for powering
using the USB charger commonly used for charging mobile phones [1]. In the testing of the
Wi-Fi based variant battery and charging circuit also added and tested for power backup. For
programming and serial data monitoring the Arduino IDE application software is used. Open-
source hardware platform (Arduino) based development board programmed with Arduino
Integrated Development Environment (IDE) software [6].
3.2 The 3D Printed Assembly
For designing the holder and light sensor enclosure an open-source cuvette holder 3D printed
part is used for testing and suitable cuvette holders will also be designed in future for further
simplicity of the complete system. The 3D printer and plastic based holder can also be used
for inserting the HACH Kit test strips for analysis of the color of the testing region at the as
test strips [7].
3.3 Optical Sensor Section
In the prototypes, a light sensor is used for detection of the sample color. The sensor has
wavelength specific sensitive regions that provide digital values according to the light
projected at the sensing area. As illustrated in the figure the optical sensor will detect the
color of the spot at the test strip. The developed detection system is based on Lambert-Beer's
Law [8]-[12].
3.4 Web Page based data viewing
In the prototype with Wi-Fi support, a module with option to display sensor detected values
and water quality is also included. The web page is available on all devices connected to the
same Wi-Fi router. This feature is helpful for testing the system and recording values at a
central lab without the need of manual data entry [13]-[15].
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 2 Images of the Prototype Developed with battery support(a) with rechargeable
battery (b) OLED screen (c) changes observed in the light intensity (d) Setup with Wi-Fi
connectivity
The test of the proposed detection system is performed using known water samples of
Arsenic in different concentrations. The images are also shown in Figure 3(a) Test Paper for
Arsenic Concentration Sensing (b) with Arsenic concentration marked on the paper, of
different test papers with marking of Arsenic concentration in parts per billion (ppb).
Fig. 3 (a) Test Paper for Arsenic Concentration Sensing (b) with Arsenic concentration
marked on the paper
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
After obtaining values of light intensity due to the test strip in the optical chamber, calibration
calculations and the equations were obtained. Microsoft Excel software is used for obtaining
the calibration equations. The equation was added to program code in Arduino IDE after
calibration to detect unknown water samples for detection of Arsenic contamination. The
results of calibration are shown in Figure 4. An IoT based interface for water quality
monitoring is also added with details of temperature and water quality parameters displayed
at the IoT interface. The analytics platform is used for storing and analyzing data in real time.
Images of the IoT dashboard are shown in Figure 5 with light intensity values at local
webpage for different water samples Figure 5(a) 50 ppb and Figure (b) 100 ppb Arsenic (5+)
Known Solutions and Figure 6 with images of TDS values Figure 6(a) Setup for TDS Sensor
Figure 6(b) Distilled Water Sample- 0 ppm Figure 6(c) Tap Water Sample- 138 ppm. An
advanced interface with the option to display MATLAB data analysis output is shown in
Figure 7IoT based dashboard for Water Quality Monitoring Figure 7(a) Temperature
Monitoring Figure 7(b) Humidity Monitoring Figure 7(c) Dew Point Figure 7(d) Indicator to
show water quality along with other sensor data in dashboard. A calibration equation is also
obtained from the data shown in Table 1 and then using the equation 1, the Arsenic
concentration of unknown water sample is calculated. The change in Temperature and
Humidity values are shown in Figure 7 in different rooms and environments.
Table 1 Sensor Values for different Arsenic Concentration

S. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Concentration
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 350 400 450 500
(ppb)
Light Intensity
Value 228 182 177 175 170 162 160 159 157 157 154 150 148 145 147 146
(Range 0 to 1000)
(a) (b)
Figure 4 Curve Fitting Equation for data obtained using the Arsenic Test Strip Experiment
(a) Polynomial (b) Linear Equation
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
Calibration Equation obtained after performing the numerical analysis (linear Equation) is
shown in the Equation 1.
y = -0.114*x + 190 ……… (1)
Figure 5 Sensor data obtained through Webpage for (a) 50 ppb and (b) 100 ppb Arsenic (5+)
Known Solutions
Figure 6 (a) Setup for TDS Sensor (b) Distilled Water Sample, 0 ppm (c) Tap Water Sample,
138 ppm
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 7 IoT based dashboard for Water Quality Monitoring (a) Temperature Monitoring (b)
Humidity Monitoring (c) Dew Point (d) Indicator to show water quality along with other
sensor data in dashboard
5. Conclusion and Future Scope
Results obtained after testing the prototypes for different samples and it is observed that the
device is cost effective and provides comparable results with the HACK Kit test strips. We
also tested the setup with TDS electrodes to measure the TDS of a sample water solution. The
proposed instrument can be used for detecting Arsenic, pH value, TDS, Temperature and
other contaminants in the water sample by making suitable modifications in the program
code. The setup can also be used at different locations and data can be collected at a central
system. Further additions of IoT based data analysis and storage tools can be added for
monitoring and data viewing in info graphic format.
Table 2 Cost of the water quality sensor prototype

S. No. Item Cost Application
1 Arduino UNO 1200 Microcontroller
2 AS 7341 2000 Colour Detection
3 RGB LED 20 Indicator LED
4 LCD Screen 250 Message Display
5 Connecting Wires 100 For Connection
6 Breadboard 150 For Connection
7 Miscellaneous 280 Other Components
Total Rs. 4000
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
The cost of the Arsenic sensing prototype is around Rs. 4000. Detailed information of
individual component cost is included in the Table 2. The proposed prototype is very cost
effective as compared to other systems. A major advantage of the proposed system is that it is
developed with scope of further up gradations or sensing different contaminants. In future,
the setup will be upgraded with solar panel and battery backup for installation at a particular
location. Wireless connectivity with Lo-Ra modules will also be added in the prototype.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express sincere gratitude to the Director, CSIR - AMPRI for providing
guidance and support. This study was supported by CSIR under the MLP 0214 project.
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Page 10
Understanding the nonstationary behavior Indian Summer Monsoon

Rainfall extremes using wavelet analysis
Athira K1, Sarmistha Singh2
1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Palakkad, Kerala, India –
678623; Email: 102004001@smail.iitpkd.ac.in
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Palakkad, Kerala, India –
678623; sarmistha@iitpkd.ac.in
Abstract
Extreme precipitation events often lead to disastrous flood events or drought conditions which
attract critical attention to the design of hydraulic structures and water resource management
across the world. Climate variability is the natural fluctuation in climate in all spatiotemporal
scales, which may cause interannual-interdecadal variability in extreme precipitation. Various
climatic oscillation indices like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Equatorial Indian Ocean
Oscillations (EQUINOO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillations (AMO) have been broadly applied to comprehend the variability of hydroclimatic
extremes. In recent decades, India has been experiencing frequent extreme precipitation events
which not only affect the socio-economic balance but also threaten all sectors of the country’s
economy. In this study, extreme precipitation index called maximum 5-day precipitation
(Rx5day) is used to represent the ISMR extremes and a regional analysis has been carried out
using the different wavelet-based methods to determine the individual and coupled association
of climatic oscillations with Rx5day. Variabilities of extreme precipitation during ISMR period
on decadal to multi-decadal scales mainly occurred due to the association of large-scale
climatic oscillations like ENSO, AMO, PDO and EQUINOO. The results indicated that the
combined influence of climatic oscillations affects variability in extreme precipitation during
ISMR. In particular, AMO-ENSO-EQUINOO and AMO-ENSO-PDO combinations appear to
be sufficient to explain the frequent occurrence of ISMR extremes. The results from this study
provides a comprehensive information regarding all possible relationship between ISMR
extremes and large-scale climatic oscillations.
Keywords: ISMR extremes, climatic oscillations, wavelet coherence, partial wavelet

coherence, multiple wavelet coherence.
1. Introduction
Spatial distribution and amount of precipitation during Indian Summer Monsoon Period
(ISMR) has significant influence on the socio-economic growth of the country. Occurrence of
extreme precipitation substantially disturbed the development of the country. These extremes
show significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities (Webster 1987; Wang et al. 2017;
Falga and Wang 2022) and it could be explained using climatic oscillations (COs) (Goli and
Teegavarapu 2014; Duan et al. 2015; Singh et al. 2021). Hence understanding the risks
Page 1
associated with the frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events and their relationship
with global climate drivers has become critical in preparedness for natural disasters.
Numerous exploratory analyses carried out to find the association between EPIs and
COs include Pearson and Spearman rank correlation, principal component analysis, multiple
correlations, empirical orthogonal function, canonical correlation analysis, and wavelet
analysis (Curtis et al. 2007; Revadekar et al. 2008; Mitra et al. 2014; Tabari and Willems 2018).
Among these methods identified, wavelet analysis provides time and space localized
information, which would be helpful to examine the interannual and interdecadal relationships
between variables (Hu et al. 1998; Anctil and Coulibaly 2004). Rathinasamy et al. (2019)
explored the capability of Wavelet Coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) in
time-series studies and observed that Niño3.4 and IOD were significant drivers of monthly
maximum precipitation in various scales. WC is a time series measure of correlation used to
detect the coherence and phase lag between two time series, and PWC is a method akin to the
partial correlation used to find the standalone relationship between two time series by removing
the effect of a third time series. Apart from WC and PWC, multiple wavelet coherence (MWC)
explains the variability in one time series as a function of two or more time series (Hu et al.
2016; Hu et al. 2017; Song et al. 2020).
In this study, extreme precipitation index called maximum 5-day precipitation
(Rx5day) is used to represent the ISMR extremes and a regional analysis has been carried out
using the different wavelet-based methods to determine the individual and coupled association
of climatic oscillations with Rx5day.
In this study maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) has been considered to
explain the characteristics of ISMR extremes. Monthly ENSO, AMO, and PDO indices from
1901 to 2015 and EQUINOO index from 1950 to 2015 were collected to determine the
teleconnection with precipitation extremes. Seasonal Niño3.4, AMO, PDO, and EQWIN were
calculated for the study period.
2.1 Wavelet analysis
Wavelets are rapidly decaying wave-like oscillations localized in both time and frequency
domain that can be used in the analysis of nonstationary time series in ways that conventional
approaches such as the Fourier transform cannot (Sifuzzaman et al. 2009).
2.1.1 Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC)
Generally, the wavelet coherence is proposed to measure the intensity of the covariance of the
two series in time frequency space, and to reveal the correlations between extreme precipitation
index series and large-scale climate anomalies (Grinsted et al. 2004; Torrence and Compo
1998). Similar to the correlation coefficient, the wavelet coherence coefficient is used to
express the degree of coherence between two-time series. WTC is defined as follows (Grinsted
et al. 2004; Chang et al. 2018):
Page 2
2
2 (𝑎, |𝑆(𝑎−1 𝑊𝑥𝑦 (𝑎,𝜏)|
𝑅 𝜏) = 2 (1)
|𝑆(𝑎−1 𝑊𝑥 (𝑎,𝜏)|2 .|𝑆(𝑎−1 𝑊𝑦 (𝑎,𝜏)|
𝑅 2 (𝑎, 𝜏) is in a range between 0 to 1. 𝑊𝑥 and 𝑊𝑦 are the sum of the rank of observations in
samples 1 and 2 respectively and S is a smoothing operator.
2.1.2 Partial Wavelet Coherence
Partial wavelet coherence analysis is used to find the standalone relationship between a climatic
variable and Extreme Precipitation by removing the effect of a third climatic variable.
Mihanovic et al., 2009 provide an equation similar to the square of partial correlation, where
coherence ranges from 0 to 1, given in equation 2.
2 (𝑠, |𝑅 𝑦,𝑧 (𝑠,𝑡)−𝑅 𝑦,𝑥 (𝑠,𝑡).𝑅 𝑦,𝑧 (𝑠,𝑡)∗ |2
𝑅𝑃𝑦,𝑧,𝑥 𝑡) = , (2)
[1−𝑅 𝑦,𝑥 (𝑠,𝑡)]2 .[1−𝑅𝑧,𝑥 (𝑠,𝑡)]2
where 𝑅 is the wavelet coherence between the two variables. The wavelet coherence between
EPI and climatic variable 𝑧 and 𝑦 after eliminating third climatic variable 𝑥 is determined using
Equation.
2.1.3 Multiple Wavelet Coherence
The Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) method is used when the ordinary methods fail to
account for the anomalies in extreme events at various scales and locations. Similar to the
multiple correlation, it evaluating the temporal scale-dependency of multiple controlling
factors like various climatic oscillations and extreme precipitation during the ISMR period. In
equation 3, wavelet coherence squared is calculated for extreme precipitation index, y in terms
of two climatic variables 𝑧 and 𝑥 at a given time and frequency (Hu and Si, 2016; Hu et al.
2017; Song et al. 2020).
(𝑦,𝑥) (𝑦,𝑧)
2 𝑅2 (𝑠,𝑡)+𝑅2 (𝑠,𝑡)−2𝑅𝑒[𝑅 (𝑦,𝑥) (𝑠,𝑡).𝑅(𝑦,𝑧) (𝑠,𝑡)∗ .𝑅 (𝑥,𝑧) (𝑠,𝑡)∗ ]
𝑅𝑀 (𝑦,𝑧,𝑥) (𝑠, 𝑡) = (𝑧,𝑥) (3)
1−𝑅 2 (𝑠,𝑡)
2.2.1 India
Due to the complexity of topography, India is classified into seven homogeneous zones
(Rathinasamy et al. 2019). Fig. 1 represents the Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) of spatial
variation of Rx5day and shows the presence of significant spatial variation of extreme
precipitation (Rx5day) within the homogeneous regions. Hence 32 grid points representing the
spatial variation of extreme precipitation across the homogenous regions were selected for the
analysis
ISMR dataset was extracted from daily gridded rainfall data of 0.25°×0.25° resolutions
for the period 1901 to 2015 by using the records from 6995 gauging stations from the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) (Pai et al. 2014). The Niño3.4 index was calculated by
Page 3
taking the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) averaged over the Niño3.4 region (5°N–5 °S; 120
°W–170 °W), which was obtained from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/). Seasonal AMO and PDO were obtained
from monthly indices which were collected from the NOAA Earth System
Research(https://psl.noaa.gov/data/) and NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences
Laboratory(http://research.jisao.washington.edu/), respectively. EQUINOO was based on the
surface zonal wind over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The EQWIN index defined by Francis
and Gadgil (2010) was used in this study.
Figure 1 Median absolute deviation of spatial variation of Rx5day
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Wavelet coherence between Rx5day and COs were presented in the fig. 2. Rx5day had an 8–
16-year scale relationship at west-central, north-east, north-west and in most of the cities in the
coastal region. It also shows that from 1901 to 1950, there was a statistically significant
coherence in an interannual scale observed in most of the selected locations in all seven regions.
However, the phase angle relationship was varied for this periodicity due to the effect of El-
Niño and La Niña phase shift (Duan et al., 2015). Besides the inter-annual scale, significant
coherence has been observed on decadal and multidecadal scales (8-16, 16-32-years) in in all
part of the country, which may be due to the influence of other climatic variables.
Since the climatic indices are mutually cross-correlated, partial wavelet coherence analysis
was used to remove the effect of one climatic oscillation to understand the stand-alone
relationship between the other climatic oscillations and EPIs (Song et al. 2020). In this analysis,
partial coherence of ENSO, PDO, EQUINOO, and AMO on Rx5day were inspected and the
results indicate that the values of coherence were observed to be less for PWCs compared to
WCs due to the interdependencies of climatic oscillations. Fig. 3: a illustrates the effect
removal of EQUINOO from ENSO on Rx5day. Observed results show that the significant
coherences were akin to the coherence between extremes and ENSO, which indicates the
independent occurrence of ENSO and EQUINOO. Similar results were obtained by Charlotte
et al. in 2012, and they found that ENSO and EQUINOO independently affect the Indian
monsoon. Likewise, there were no significant changes have been observed in the coherence
between EQUINOO and Rx5day, before and after the removal of ENSO or AMO (Fig. 3b).
Consequently, these results inferred that EQUINOO, ENSO, and AMO are discrete modes and
the development of EQUINOO was found to be independent of other climatic oscillations.
ENSO and PDO are the major factors driving global inter-annual climatic variability
(Beaufort and Grelaud 2017). The effect of removal of long-lived PDO from short-lived ENSO
was given in Fig. 3c and it was found that the decadal to multi-decadal coherence has been
removed in the PWC analysis. For example, observed significant coherence at 8-16-year, and
16–32-year scale at central, hilly, and coastal region for Rx5day was missing in the PWC
analysis.
In MWC analysis, two variable, three variable, and four variable combinations were used
with Rx5day and are given in Fig. 2-9. The two variable combinations (ENSO and EQUINOO/
PDO/ AMO) with Rx5day (Fig. 4-6) gave more coherence at multiple scales and locations in
India. Among these combinations, the ENSO-EQUINOO combination shows high coherence
in the 0-4 and 4-8 scales in all locations and ENSO-AMO with Rx5day had a significant
coherence at decadal to multidecadal scales in Kochi, Bangalore, Delhi, Jammu, and Varanasi.
PDO-AMO combination did not show any significant results compared to other combinations.
Three variable combinations provided better results than two variable combinations (Fig. 7-8).
It was found that AMO-ENSO-EQUINOO and AMO-ENSO-PDO were the best combinations
to explain the interdecadal and multidecadal variabilities of the duration of extreme
precipitation events. The variability of intensity of extremes was also well explained by the
combinations, except for Kochi. The combined effect of all four variables (ENSO-EQUINOO-
PDO-AMO) did not show any additional significance as compared to the three-variable cases
Page 5
(Fig. 9). Based on this analysis, it can be concluded that the combined effect of climatic
oscillations provides a better explanation for the variability of extreme precipitation. Three-
variable combinations were sufficient to explain extreme event variabilities perhaps an increase
in the number of climate variables was not needed to improve the prediction of the variability.
Page 6
Figure 2 Wavelet coherence between Rx5day and climatic oscillations (a. ENSO, b.
EQUINOO, c. PDO, d. AMO)
Page 7
Figure 3a Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) between Rx5day and ENSO by removing
EQUINOO.
Figure 3b Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) between Rx5day and EQUINOO by removing
ENSO.
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Figure 3c Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) between Rx5day and EQUINOO by removing
AMO.
Figure 3d Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) between Rx5day and ENSO by removing PDO.
Page 9
Figure 4 Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) between ENSO-AMO and Rx5day
Figure 5 Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) between ENSO-EQUINOO and Rx5day
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Figure 6 Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) between ENSO-PDO and Rx5day
Figure 7 Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) between three variable combinations (AMO-
ENSO-EQUINOO) with Rx5day
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Figure 8 Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) between three variable combinations (AMO-
ENSO-PDO) with and Rx5day
Figure 9 Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) between four variable combinations (AMO-
ENSO-PDO-EQUINOO) with and Rx5day
4. Conclusions
The following conclusions are derived from the foregoing study:

I. Wavelet coherence, partial wavelet coherence, and multiple wavelet coherence were
used to understand the possible spectral characteristics of extreme precipitation and
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large-scale climatic oscillations. Variations were noticed in the individual relationship

between extremes and climatic variables and the observed changes could be better
explained by combinations of climatic oscillations.
II. Variabilities of extreme precipitation during ISMR period on decadal to multi-decadal
scales mainly occurred due to the association of large-scale climatic oscillations like
ENSO, AMO, PDO and EQUINOO. The results indicated that the combined influence
of climatic oscillations affects variability in extreme precipitation during ISMR. In
particular, AMO-ENSO-EQUINOO and AMO-ENSO-PDO combinations appear to be
sufficient to explain the frequent occurrence of ISMR extremes.
III. Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation values significantly coherent with ENSO,
EQUINOO, and PDO at an 8-16-year scale.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support received from the Science and Engineering Research
Board (SERB), India for this study.
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Impact of climate and landuse change on streamflow of Kuttiyadi river

basin, Kerala
Drissia, T.K.1, Fida E.2, Megha P.3, Aditya B.4, Asika
Sidhana4, Avani S Babu4
1
Principal Scientist, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode,
Kerala – 673571; Email: drissia@cwrdm.org, drissia13@gmail.com
2
M Tech Student, Thrissur Engineering College, Thrissur, Kerala; Email:
tcr19cewr11@gectcr.ac.in
3
Junior Research Fellow, Centre for water Resources Development and management,
Kozhikode, Kerala – 673571; Email: meghapsaji96@gmail.com
4
M Tech Student, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Suratkal
Abstract
Land cover and climate changes are the two key factors affecting the changing hydrological
processes at a river basin scale. Climatic alterations will seriously affect water resources, a
large part of which includes surface water and groundwater. The changes in both Landuse
and climate are affecting the river basins adversely, and the impact varies in each river basin.
Therefore, the study aims at evaluating the combined impact of changes in climate and land
use on streamflow of the Kuttiyadi river basin, Kerala. The impact of land use and climate
change on streamflow is analysed with the help of a hydrological model, Soil Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT). The data used for the SWAT model are Digital Elevation Model
(Cartosat, 30m), Soil map (NBSS), rainfall (gridded data, IMD), Climate data, and land use
maps (1990, 2000, 2014 and 2018). The SWAT model developed is calibrated and validated
by the discharge of the Kuttiyadi gauging station, maintained by the Central Water
Commission. Future climate data is an ensemble from five Global Circulation models (GCM)
i.e., BNU ESM, CAN ESM, CNRM CM5, MPI ESM LR and MPI ESM MR, for two
emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. To find out the changes in streamflow due to the
combined impact of variation in land use and climate, various scenarios such as near future
(2005-2040 climate data; 2030 land use map), mid future (2041-2070 climate data; 2050 land
use map) and far future (2071-2099 climate data; 2075 land use map). The output from
various scenarios is compared with the baseline scenario (1981-2010 climate data and 2000
land use map). From the analysis, it was found that the monthly streamflow decreases in
June, July and August for all scenarios, further from January to May and September to
October; a decrease in streamflow is noticed. .
Keywords: Climate change, hydrologic model, landuse change, SWAT
1. Introduction
The inter panel committee for Climate change (IPCC) says an increase of the approximately
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December 22 -24, 2022
1oC of global warming and likely to reach 1.5oC during 2030-2052 (IPCCC, 2022). Due to
the changes in climate what could be the changes in stream flow and other hydrological
processes are studied by many researchers.
The impact of Landuse/land cover changes on the hydrology of river, especially stream flow
are explored by many researchers. Nugroho et al. (2013) studied the impact of land-use
changes on hydrological processes and river discharge using a GenRiver model. Sajikumar et
al. (2015) studied the effect of land use and land cover on the runoff characteristics of two
watersheds in Kerala, India. Also assessed how the change in land use and land cover in the
last few decades affected the runoff characteristics of these watersheds. Leta et al. (2016)
studied the impact of three climate variable ie, rainfall, temperature and CO2 concentration
change on water balance components of Heeia watershed in Hawaii. Also, evaluated the
applicability and suitability of the SWAT model for streamflow simulation in Heeia under
scarcity of hydrological data. These studies show the changes in the hydrology either due to
LULC changes of climate change. Therefore, the study was extended worldwide to
understand how much is the combined impact of LULC and climate change, which is the real
situation.
Kundu et al., (2017) studied changes in the future water balance by investigating the
independent and integrated impacts of climate and land use changes using SWAT model in a
part of the Narmada river basin in Madhya Pradesh, India. The climatic GCM data along with
the NCEP (National Centres for Environmental Prediction) data had been used to downscale
rainfall and temperature variables. Calibration and validation were carried out and future
downscaled scenario had been projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.
From the literatures cited above, it was known that the variability of climate and land use is
the two essential factors affecting water resources. Evaluation and prediction of future water
resources are essential for the planning of water resources. There are many studies carried out
in global scale and river basin scale, but the impact changes from river basin to river basin.
Kuttiyadi river basin is one of the important river basins in Kerala which constitutes two
reservoirs namely Kuttiyadi reservoir and Kakkayam reservoir. Hence, this study explores a
detailed analysis of land use and climate change and how these changes affect the stream
flow of the Kuttiyadi river basin.
2.1 Methodology
The study includes following phases i) LULC maps generation of past decades and prediction
of future LULC ii) SWAT model development and calibration iii) impact analysis of LULC
and climate change. The historical LULC maps generated from the remote sensing data were
used for predicting future LULC for the years 2030, 2050 and 2075, with the help of Land
Change Modeler (LCM) of IDRISI Terrset. The impact of LULC and climate change is
analyzed using SWAT. For calibration, observed discharge data of years from 2000 to 2006
were selected and for validation, from 2007 to 2010. For base model, SWAT model
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December 22 -24, 2022
simulation period were selected as 1979 to 2010 with two years as warm-up year. The future
scenarios considered for the analysis are i) near future (2011-2040) with LULC 2030, ii) mid
future (2041-2070) with LULC 2050 and iii) far future (2071-2099) with LULC 2075. The
output from the scenarios is compared with the output of the baseline period.
2.2.1 Kuttiyadi River basin
The study area is the Kuttiyadi river basin (75̊35'18'' to 75̊ 85'53'' E and 11̊ 30'19'' to 11̊ 44'
37' N)', which originates in Narikota Range of the western slopes of Wayanad Hills at an
elevation of 1220 m M.S.L and flows through Wayanad and Kozhikode districts and reaches
Arabian sea. The basin, with an area of 657km2, receives an average annual rainfall of 4500
mm. Figure 1 shows the location of the study area. The catchment of Kuttiyadi riverbasin has
two reservoirs, Kakkayam and Kuttiyadi.
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 30m spatial resolution from CARTOSAT was used for
watershed delineation. The grid point climate data such as rainfall, minimum and maximum
temperature, relative humidity, wind and solar radiation of year 1979 to 2015 with resolution
0.25°x0.25° were obtained from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The data on
relative humidity, solar radiation and wind velocity are collected from Climate Forecast
System Reanalysis and interpolated at 0.25o grid size by interpolating to make it the same as
the grid size of rainfall. The discharge data of gauging station Kuttiyadi of year 2000 to 2010
were obtained from Central Water Commission (CWC). Soil data was obtained from
National Bureau of Soil Science (NBSS). For landuse/landcover (LULC) generation, four
Landsat satellite images of years 1990, 2000, 2014 and 2018 were used in the study.
Thematic Mapper (TM) of Landsat 4-5 for 1990, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+)
of Landsat 7 for 2000, Operational Land Imager OLI) of Landsat 8 for 2014 and 2018 were
downloaded from USGS (United State Geological Survey).
Statistical downscaled climate variables, namely precipitation, maximum and minimum

temperature were procured from http://www.regclimindia.in/. Five Global Circulation
Models (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were obtained. The
output from the five GCMs includes Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological
Administration (BNU ESM); Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
(CanESM2); Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM CM5); Max-Planck-
Inst. for Meteorology (MPI ESM MR) and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)
(MPI ESM LR). All GCMs contained essential variables corresponding to historic and
projected climate data determined using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 1 Kuttiyadi River basin
This session describes the output of the LULC and climate change analysis, SWAT modeling
and calibration and impact analysis of LULC and climate change on streamflow. The LULC
change analysis shows, historically, there is a reduction in paddy field, forest whereas a rise
in plantation and urban area (Figure 2). Land use statistics of year 1990-2100 for Kuttiyadi
river basin, projects a decrease of 10.85% in forest and 4.06% in paddy field and
correspondingly an increase of 8.78% in plantation and 3.77% in urban land. Figure 2 shows
comparison of LULC change from base period, 1990 for historical change and 2019 for
future change. There is a sudden increase in urban area from 2000 to 2014. From 1990 to
2000, a sudden increase in plantation and decrease in forest are visible, a conversion of forest
to plantation may be high during this period.
The five GCM models are ensemble to get the final output. Figure 3 shows the plot between
observed and ensemble GCM data as well as the future data for both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP
emission scenario. The ensemble climate data shows a slight decreasing trend in rainfall and
an increasing trend in maximum temperature and minimum temperature (Figure 3). The
future climate was grouped into three, near future 2011-2040, mid future 2041-2070 and far
future 2071-2100.
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Figure 2 LULC change from 1990 to 2100
3.1 SWAT model development and calibration
Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed for the period 1979 – 2010. SWAT-
Calibration and Uncertainty Procedures (SWAT-CUP), is used for the calibration of the
SWAT model. In SWAT-CUP, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) algorithm was used
for calibration. The most sensitive parameters for streamflow are Manning's "n" value for the
main channel (CH_N2) followed by base flow alpha factor in day(ALPHA_BF), SCS runoff
curve number (CN), soil evaporation compensation factors (ESCO), Saturated hydraulic
conductivity (SOL_K), available water capacity of soil layer (SOL_AWC). SWAT model
with 2000 LULC was calibrated for years from 2000 to 2006 in SWAT-CUP. Validation was
performed using the observed monthly discharge data for years from 2007 to 2010. NSE and
R2 are 0.7 and 0.72 for calibration and 0.88 and 0.90 for validation respectively.
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Figure 3 Trend in future ensemble climate data
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3.2 Impact of combine LULC and Climate change
To understand the impact of LULC and climate change, SWAT model was run for the
following scenarios, near future 2011-2040 with 2030 LULC map, mid future 2041-2070
with LULC map of 2050, and far future 2071-2100 with LULC map of 2075 for both
emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Altogether model was run for six scenarios and
compared with the base model, the model for the period 2079-2010 with 2000 LULC map.
Figure 4 shows the spatial variation of changes in surface runoff for near, mid and far future
for emission scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5. There is an increase in the surface runoff, when
compared with the base model in near future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios,
the magnitude of change reduces when we go from near to far future, in the case of RCP 4.5
emission scenario (Figure 4). For RCP 8.5 emission scenario, the surface runoff increases
when compared with the base model in the near future, whereas when we go from mid future
to far future, the surface runoff decreases and far future face more reduction in surface runoff.
Figure 4 Spatial variations of the changes in the stream flow for a) near future, b) mid future
and c) far future
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Figure 5 shows the monthly and seasonal variations in streamflow. The average monthly
discharge is found to be increasing in all months for all scenarios, except in June and July for
mid and far future and in August and September for far future in RCP 8.5. An increase in
discharge is found in all seasons, summer, winter and monsoon, except in monsoon for RCP
8.5 far-future scenario. It can say that flow will be increasing in the Kuttiyadi basin due to
combined impact of climate change and LULC change.
Figure 5 Percentage change in streamflow due to LULC and climate change (a) mean
monthly (b) mean seasonal and annual in the KURB
4. Conclusions
In the present study, the following factors were known.

 Due to LULC change, the surface runoff will increase in 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2100
by 0.49%, 1.03%, 1.51%, and 1.95% in comparison to baseline (2018) land use.
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 Ensemble rainfall for near and mid future will increase due to climate change by
11.71%, 4.53%, but decreases by 0.36% for far future for RCP 4.5 emission scenario,
respectively. For RCP 8.5 emission scenario, rainfall will increase by 12.82% but
decree by 5.07%, and 23.73%, in comparison to baseline (2014).
 Ensemble of surface runoff for near, mid, and far future will increase due to combined
impact of climate change and LULC change by 20.62%, 12%, and 8.19% for RCP 4.5
and 21.42%, but later decrease by 2.14%, and 23.73% for RCP 8.5 emission
scenarios.
 The monthly streamflow decreases in June, July and August for all scenarios, under
the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, further, from January to May and September
to October a decrease in streamflow is noticed.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support received from the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government
of India to carry out the present work. The authors are also thankful to India Meteorological
Department (IMD) and Central Water Commission (CWC) for providing the necessary data to
conduct the present study.
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Comparative Analysis of SVR and ANN in Heatwave Prediction over

Rajasthan
Manali Pal1, Srikanth B2 and Anusha M3
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology,
Warangal, Telangana, India – 506004; Email: manalipal@nitw.ac.in
2
Research Scholar PhD, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology,
Warangal, Telangana, India – 506004; Email: sb712007@student.nitw.ac.in
3
PG Student, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Warangal,
Telangana, India – 506004; E-mail: amce20504@student.nitw.ac.in
Abstract
In the changing climate scenario, the changing heatwave frequency and magnitude have a
direct impact on agriculture, society, the economy, and public health. Hence, the development
of easy and effective tools is essential for quantifying the Heatwave Days (HWD) for better
planning and management towards reducing the impacts of heatwaves. In this study, an attempt
has been made to develop a heatwave prediction model for different lead time using Support
Vector Regression (SVR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Rajasthan has been selected
as the study area that is an arid region and is more susceptible to heat waves. The daily time
series of five meteorological variables namely geopotential height, U-wind, V-wind, air
temperature, and relative humidity from the ECMWF Reanalysis version5 (ERA5) for the time
period of 1991-2020 are used as the predictors. The daily maximum temperature of summer
(May, June, and July) is the predictand and obtained from India Meteorological Department
(IMD) for the same time period i.e.,1991-2020. The study has been performed for 0,1,3 and 7
days lead time. The outcome of both the models show that the total numbers of annual HWD
for overall Rajasthan are predicted almost accurately. However, the grid wise model
performances decrease with increase in lead time. Yet, the model performances are acceptable
considering the temperature being influenced by spatio-temporal variations in the relationships
between HWDs and the predictors. The comparison between two models demonstrated the
better performance of ANN than SVR to predict HWDs for all the lead times. Finally, the
overall outcome suggests the potential of SVR and ANN for robust usage for long lead
heatwave prediction using the spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological variables.
Keywords: Heatwave Days, Machine learning algorithm, Artificial Neural Networks, Support
Vector Regression
1. Introduction
The heatwaves (HWs) are days for a particular place experiencing with aberrantly high
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temperature that is more than its long-term normal value i.e., maximum average temperature
for a given base period (~ 30 years). Heat waves have fatal effects on a variety of systems such
as human health, agriculture, water resources, energy demand, regional economies, and forest
ecosystems. These fatalities due to rising temperatures have become more common in recent
years throughout the globe. Over 70,000 people died as a result of a severe heatwave that hit
Western Europe in 2003 (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012). The heatwave in Russia in 2010
(lasted for one month) (McMichael and Lindgren, 2011) and South Eastern Australia in 2009
caused the death of 54,000 and 374 people respectively. India has also experienced many such
fatalities due to various occurrences of these HWs. For example, the HW occurred in 1988
killed approximately 1300 people (De, U.S. et al.,1998, 2004); in 1998 and 2003 killed
approximately 2042 (Jenamani et al.,2012) and 3054 people (Bhadram et al., 2005),
respectively; and the toll was 2248 across different parts of the country, in the HWs that
occurred in 2015 (Guha et al., 2016).
According to scenario-based projection studies, the global temperature is anticipated to rise by

1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius, potentially leading to a large increase in heat- related death and
morbidity (Meehl et al. 2009; Zhang 2017b). The frequency and duration of warm days have
increased since the 1950s, according to the IPCC assessment, and there will be more
temperature extremes across most of Asia (IPCC 2012). In recent decades, particularly the
urban areas with high population density have been affected more intensely (Christidis et al.
2015; Mishra et al. 2015). Heat waves in India often occur during the pre-monsoon season,
from March to May, affecting various sections of the nation with varying intensity, duration,
and harmful impacts (Pai et al. 2013a). Rohini et al. (2016) used a gridded dataset to investigate
the 'excessive heat factor,' taking into account both the 'excess heat index' and the 'heat stress
index' for the period 1961–2013.The findings revealed that the frequency and length of heat
waves are increasing in some partsof central and northwestern India, but no significant trends
were detected in the remainder of the country. Heat waves may cause more damage in the
coming decades not only in Asia (Khan et al. 2018, 2020b), but also in neighbouring regions.
As heatwaves become more common in the coming years, there is a need for the development
of a robust model for forecasting heatwaves as a potential climate change mitigation measure.
Generally, there are two broad methodologies that have been in practice for the prediction of
HWs: a) Dynamic Climate models and b) Statistical Models. Dodla et al.,2017 used the
dynamical climate model i.e.,Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model for prediction
of HWs for a leadtime of upto 72 hours and found that RMSE value is ranging between 0.8-
2.24 K . Further, Raju et al.,2019 used multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system for
HWs prediction and found that system displays little accuracy for extreme forecast
probabilities after one week lead time. Although the dynamical climate models are physically
based and can capture nonlinear interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean the
dynamical forecasting is generally computationally demanding, requiring significant
investments in data assimilation and significantly more time for model building and
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parameterizations. Recently, a few studies have started to use Machine Learning (ML)
algorithms for the same. The primary benefit of statistical data-based methods is they are
generally easy to implement and require lesser computational resources and also helpful in
providing a baseline level of skill. Khan et.al 2019, used the Quantile Regression Forests (QRF)
and Random Forest (RF) in Pakistan for different time-lags using synoptic climate variables.
The QRF model was able to predict the triggering and departure dates of heat waves with 1 to
10 days lead times at various levels of accuracy for each lead time. Similarly, in another study,
Khan et al., 2020, developed the climate change resilient heatwave prediction model using
Support Vector Regression (SVR), RF and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The SVR
showed superior performance for predicting heatwave days when compared with RF and ANN
and it has the potential for accurate forecasting in the context of climate change. Further,
Dumas et al.,2021 trained a Convolutional Neural Network, using 1000 years of climate model
outputs to forecast extreme HW occurrences and found that model is able to predict them at
three different levels of intensity, and as early as 15 days ahead of the start of the event.
Asadolla et al., 2021, used the Decision tree (DT) and RF and Ada-Boost Regression and
decision tree (ABR-DT) to predict HWs and found that ABR-DT showed superior performance
even when one or multiple variables are removed. Recently, Khan et al., 2022 used
Combination of one-dimensional neural network (Conv 1D) and Long Short-Term Memory
(LSTM) neural network and found that the efficiency of model is reduced to 50% if prediction
is more than 5-days lead time. However, overall these ML algorithms are more efficient due
to their ability to recognize the highly non-linear relationships between the predictors and
predictands and are being extensively used for predicting many climate variables such as
extreme, wind, evapotranspiration (Tao et al. 2018), and many. Hence, keeping in mind the
benefits of using these ML algorithms, combined with the handful numbers of studies
performed using these, the present study aims for the prediction of HWs using SVR and ANN
models and evaluates the relative performances of the models.
2.1 Methodology
The overall methodology of the study includes prediction of heatwave days (HWD) using two
ML algorithms namely SVR and RF. The HWDs are defined as daily maximum temperature
over the 95th percentile of the maximum temperature for the base year for at least 5 consecutive
days (Khan et al., 2019). The study uses the daily maximum temperature of May, June, and
July (MJJ) to calculate the HWDs over the study area for the base period of 1991 to 2020.
Figure 2.1 represents the overall methodology of the study.
Page 3
Figure 2.1 Methodology Flow chart
2.1.1 Support Vector Regression (SVR):
SVR employs the theory of structural risk minimization to reduce the problem of overfitting
(Manali Pal et al., 2020). The non-linear problem is transferred into a higher-dimensional space
Page 4
in SVR to turn it into a linear problem that can be addressed with kernel functions (e.g.
polynomial, radial, sigmoid, and linear). The polynomial and radial kernels are commonly used
in most of the SVR-based prediction models. The mathematical description of SVR is as
follows. Let [(𝑥1 , 𝑦1 ), (𝑥2 , 𝑦2 ) … . (𝑥𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ) … (𝑥𝑙 , 𝑦𝑙 )] be a training dataset with 𝑥𝑖 as an input
vector and 𝑦𝑖 as the output vector and l as the number of data pairs. The SVR finds a regression
function𝑓(𝑥) = (𝑤, 𝑥) + 𝑏) to best describe the observed output 𝑦 having error tolerance ∈ ,
where 𝑤 and 𝑏 are the weighting vector and bias, respectively. The original input domain is
mapped onto a higher dimensionality space for this purpose, with the function underlying the
data assumed to be linear. Solving the following optimization problem identifies the SVR
problem in the transformed space (Wang et al.,2007) as following,
1
Minimize 2 ‖𝑤‖2 + 𝐶 ∑𝑙𝑖=1(𝜀𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖∗ )
𝑌𝑖 − ∑𝐾 𝐿
𝑗=1 ∑𝑖=1 𝑤𝑗 𝑥𝑗𝑖 − 𝑏 ≤∈ +𝜀𝑖 ,
𝐾 𝐿
Subject to
∑ ∑ 𝑤𝑗 𝑥𝑗𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖 ≤ ∈ + 𝜀𝑖∗ ,
𝑗=1 𝑖=1
𝜀𝑖 , 𝜀𝑖∗ ≥ 0,
𝐶 is the capacity parameter cost, which is a positive constant that determines the degree of
penalised loss when a training error occurs to tune the trade-off between model complexity and
tolerance to empirical errors; 𝜀𝑖 , 𝜀𝑖∗ are the slack variables, which measure the distance (in the
target space) of the training samples lying outside the -insensitive tube from the tube
𝐾
𝑓(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑤𝑗 𝑥𝑗 + 𝑏
𝑗−1
where, 𝐾 is the number of support vectors. The optimization problem is solved using the dual
formulation subject to constraints in the loss function and introducing the Lagrange multipliers,
αi and αi*. By solving the optimization problem, the final prediction function is:
f ′ (x) = ∑ αi − αi∗ )k(xi , x) + 𝑏
i∈N
where, 𝑘(… ) is kernel function which computes non-linear dependence between the two input
variables 𝑥𝑖 and 𝑥 where 𝑥𝑖 are the “support vectors” and 𝑏 is the bias. In the present study,
the Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel is used in the prediction of HWDs and can be
mathematically represented with kernel width − γ, as,
𝑘(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥) = exp(−γ‖x − xi ‖2 , γ > 0
Page 5
2.1.2 Artificial Neural Networks (ANN):
The ANN algorithm is modelled after the decision-making mechanisms utilized by the brain
(Kumar et al. 2002). The basic structure of an ANN is made up of layers, each of which is made
up of neurons. A traditional ANN contains three layers: one for receiving inputs, one for
processing input and called the hidden layer, and the third for sending output (Modaresi et al.
2018). The number of hidden layers in a network depends on the problem's complexity. The
architecture of an ANN, specifically the number of hidden layers, is usually developed by trial
and error. Figure 2.2 shown below is an architecture of a typical ANN network consisting of
three inputs, two hidden layers and one output.
Hidden Hidden
Input Layer 1 Layer 2
Layer Input weights
Output
weights 1 1 Layer
1
2 2
2 1
3 3
3
4
4
Figure 2.2: A typical neural network architecture
2.1.3 The performance metrics:
The accuracy of the predictions of the models was quantified by the root of the mean squared
error difference (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation, R, between the observed and the
predicted values. The two metrics are computed by the following equations.
1
RMSE = √N ∑N ̂𝑖 )2
i=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥
where, N is the number of observations, 𝑥𝑖 is actual value and 𝑥̂𝑖 is predicted value
Page 6
∑𝑁 ̂
̅ ) (𝑦̂𝑖 −𝑦
𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖 −𝑦 ̅)
R= 1
√ ∑N ̅)2 (𝑦̂𝑖 −𝑦̅̂ )2
i=1(𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦
N
where, 𝑦𝑖 is the actual value, 𝑦̂ is the predicted value of y, and 𝑦̅ and 𝑦̅̂ are the mean values of
the actual and predicted values respectively.
2.2.1 Rajasthan
The study has selected Rajasthan as its study area due to its diverse climate and geography and
is situated between the latitudes ranging from 23°30'N to 30°1' N and longitudes ranging from
69°29' and 78°17'E (Figure 2.3). It is the driest state in the country and is situated in the
northwest section of India, making it particularly vulnerable to climatic changes. While the
southern region of Rajasthan is hilly and damp, the western part is arid and barren. The winters
in the Thar desert are usually chilly, and the summers are hot and dry. In Rajasthan summer
lasts from April to June, during which, the temperature is quite hot, ranging from 32 to 46 ℃,
and it has recently surpassed 50 degrees. The average temperature in the area is 38℃
Figure 2.3: The study area

Page 7
The daily maximum temperature data of summer (May, June, July) for the period of 1991 to
2020, is obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) at a spatial resolution of
1o × 1o. The daily time series of five meteorological variables are used as the predictors in this
study. Those are geopotential height, U-wind, V-wind, air temperature, and relative humidity
and collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis
version5 (ERA5) for the same time period i.e., 1991-2020 for the months May, June, July are
used as the predictors. It provides detailed record of the global atmosphere, land surface and
ocean waves from 1950 onward (Hersbach et al.,2020).
3.1 SVR and ANN model development:
SVR and ANN models are developed by using the 21 years of data i.e., from a period of 1991
to 2011 (training period) and remaining 9 years of data i.e., from 2011 to 2020 is used for the
testing the models. SVR model is fitted without loss of the generality by selecting the optimal
kernel function i.e., the gaussian kernel with optimal parameter. The SVR is model is tuned
generally with three parameters i.e. box constraint, kernel scale and epsilon. The epsilon values
represent the error tolerance and the box constraints are positive numeric values that aid to
prevent overfitting. Kernel scale represents the width of kernel. Estimated box constraint,
kernel scale and epsilon values for the fitted model are 0.96, 2.57 and 0.013 respectively. The
ANN model fitted by optimizing two parameters namely, number of hidden layers, size of
neurons in hidden layer. Number of hidden layers and size of neurons used to fit this model are
15 and 6 respectively.
3.2 Computation of HWDs
In this study, heatwaves prediction abilities of SVR and ANN have been analyzed for Rajasthan
for the period of 1991-2020. The study attempts to assess the model performances for different
lead times i.e. 0, 3, 5 and 7 days for the months of May, June and July. The time series of
spatially averaged cumulative annual heatwave days are computed using the observed
temperature data from IMD. The same has been predicted with the SVR and ANN with 0, 3,
5, and 7-day lead times. The year of 2014 shows the highest number of cumulative HWDs i.e.
95 days during the months of May, June and July, calculated from IMD observed temperature.
For the same year and same time period (MJJ), the number of cumulative HWDs predicted by
SVR are 60, 55, 45, 45 for 0, 3, 5, and 7 days lead time respectively. The same i.e. the number
of cumulative HWDs predicted by ANN are 65, 70, 65, 60 for 0, 3, 5, and 7 days lead time
respectively. The time series plot has been presented in Figures 3.1 and 3.2. For most of the
cases, it has been observed that both the models underestimates the cumulative annual
Page 8
heatwave days.
Figure 3.1 Time series plot of observed and predicted HWDs by ANN
Figure 3.2 Time series plot of observed and predicted HWDs by SVR
The efficacies of the two models i.e. are SVR and ANN are evaluated by two performance
metrics namely Correlation Coefficient (R) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), in predicting
the HWDs. The range of R for all the four lead times are 0.60 to 0.89 and 0.76 to 0.95, for
SVR and ANN respectively, during training periods. The same are found to be 0.57 to 0.84 and
min 0.60 to 0.95 for SVR and ANN respectively, during model testing periods. The ranges of
RMSE for all the four lead times are 1.2 to 3.4 and 1.15 to 3.1 in SVR and ANN respectively,
during training periods. The same are found to be 1.72 to 3.92 and 2.51 to 3.42 in SVR and
ANN respectively, during model testing periods. It has been observed that the RMSE values
change in the range of 2.69°C and 2.13 for SVR and ANN respectively from lead time 0 day
to 7 days. The average values of performance metrics of both models are shown in Tables 3.1.
Page 9
Table 3.1 Average values of Performance statistics of ANN and SVR Models for the lead
times of 0, 3, 5 and 7 days
ANN SVR
Lead
R RMSE R RMSE
time
Training Testing Training Testing Training Testing Training Testing
0 0.8865 0.8679 1.6694 1.7240 0.8265 0.7679 1.7694 2.5240
3 0.7712 0.7324 1.9043 2.3284 0.7512 0.7324 2.1043 2.3284
5 0.7410 0.7162 2.2954 2.7194 0.7121 0.7162 2.4154 2.7194
7 0.7032 0.6621 2.4879 2.9038 0.6732 0.6221 2.7909 3.4038
3.3 Spatial Distribution of observed and predicted temperature
Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show the spatial distributions of observed and predicted temperature from
ANN and SVR respectively, with 0, 3, 5, and 7 day lead times for the date June 2, 1991 that
had experienced the heatwave (according to the definition mentioned above). For both the
cases, the models show the highest accuracy for no lead time. It is observed that the model
performance decrease with the increase in lead time for both ANN and SVR and shows the
lowest accuracy for 7 days lead time.
Figure 3.3 The spatial distribution of IMD observed and ANN predicted temperature with 0,3, 5, 7-
Page 10
days lead time on 02/06/1991
Figure 3.4 Spatial distribution of IMD observed and SVR predicted temperature with 0,3, 5,
7-days lead time on 02/06/1991
4. Conclusions
Heatwave prediction abilities of SVR and ANN were examined in this study for Rajasthan from
1991 to 2020. The study attempts to evaluate model performance for various lead times, namely
0, 3, 5, and 7 days in the months of May, June, and July. Observed temperature data from IMD
are used to compute a time series of spatially averaged cumulative annual heatwave days. The
same has been predicted for the SVR and ANN with lead times of 0, 3, 5, and 7 days. Overall
findings of the study indicate that the ML algorithms, namely SVR and ANN can be employed
to predict HWDs for Rajasthan using the meteorological variables i.e. the air temperature,
relative humidity, geopotential height, u-wind and v-wind as the predictors. However, the
performance metrics show that with increasing lead times, the performances of both the models
decrease. The performances for both the models are acceptable up to only 3 days of lead time
with RMSE varying from 1.7°C and 1.3°C for SVR and ANN respectively during testing
periods. When comparing the performances of the two models, the ANN is showing more
efficiency than the SVR, for this particular study. Although, as a preliminary study the findings
show the potential of using ML algorithms and meteorological predictors for HWDs prediction,
the study holds its innate limitations. For example, firstly, the temporal variation of spatial
Page 11
correlation between the predictors (air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height, u-
wind and v-wind) and predictand (daily max temperature) is not considered in model
development; secondly, the influences of teleconnections i.e. the ocean-atmospheric
interactions are not assessed and the predictors are selected only from the one atmospheric
pressure level. These gaps pf the study form the future extensions of this current study that
would attempt to include the above mentioned limitations.
Page 12
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Page 14
Assessment of Groundwater Quality for Drinking Purposes in Gajapati
District, Odisha
Papri Mukherjee1, Subhankar Debnath2, Santosh D.T.3

1
Graduate student, School of Agricultural and Bio-Engineering, Centurion University of
Technology and Management, Odisha, India; E-mail: mukherjeepapri31@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, School of Agricultural and Bio-Engineering, Centurion University of
Technology and Management, Odisha, India; E-mail: ddebnathdip@gmail.com
3
Assistant Professor, School of Agricultural and Bio-Engineering, Centurion University of
Technology and Management, Odisha, India: E-mail: santosh.dt@cutm.ac.in
Abstract
Groundwater resources have always been thought of as being something that will always be
naturally accessible to humans. Rapid population growth and excessive irrigation practices put
groundwater under stress. The quality of the groundwater has also declined as a result of the
depletion of the available groundwater. In order to assess the groundwater's suitability for
drinking, a total of 65 groundwater samples were taken from the southern parts of Gajapati
district of Odisha, including 3 blocks, Kasinagar, Paralakhemundi, Rayagada. The study area
has limited irrigation facilities, mostly restricted to minor irrigation projects, lift irrigation
projects and groundwater. With a total irrigation potential of roughly 30,507 hectares in the
district, these serve as the primary irrigation source for about 47% of the net sown area.
Eligibility of groundwater to be used for drinking and irrigation purposes is highly dependent
on degree of mineralization and other constituent effecting human and plant health. The study
mainly focuses on (a) identification of the zones in which most of the groundwater is suitable
for drinking purposes based on chemical analysis of samples collected to present an overview
on groundwater quality, (b) determination of spatial distribution of groundwater quality factors
like, Electrical Conductivity (EC), pH, cations (Ca2+, Mg2+), anions (Cl-, CO32-, HCO-3), using
ARCGIS, (c) finding drinking water quality of study area using Water Quality Index (WQI).
The paper concludes that groundwater from the study area can be used for drinking purposes
with slight or filtration. Besides, they can also be used for cattle feed, broiler feed, and forest
products industry.
Keywords: Groundwater quality, Drinking quality, spatial distribution mapping, chemical

analysis, Water Quality Index (WQI).
1. Introduction
Our earth is flourished with different surface and ground water bodies including, oceans,
lakes, streams, glaciers, groundwater, etc. But even so, only 1% of it is available for human
uses, whose 99% comes from groundwater thus, making it one of the most crucial water
bodies. It is said that, India is globally the largest user of groundwater. At present,
groundwater is the most exploited water body in India, to fulfil her need for different
domestic and farming purposes. When Green revolution started in the 1960s, groundwater
fuelled the movement. But, over the years, the same thing led to overexploitation, resulting in
rapid decline of groundwater in many parts of India. Moreover, both natural and
anthropogenic causes have led to the contamination of this water body. These causes include
industrial wastes, untreated sewage disposal from residential areas, municipal areas, and
farming curriculums, which on the other hand has degraded the water quality and made it
unfit for drinking, resulted in poor water supply, increased expenses for alternate water
resource. Rapid population growth and unchecked use of groundwater have added more
reason as to why the water level before surface is decreasing day by day (Amiri, Rezaei, &
Sohrabi, 2014; Asadi et al., 2019). In many areas, the water quality has degraded to such
extent that most houses have filters to make the groundwater useful. Water contains different
minerals in it, and each element is having a permissible limit given by World Health
Organization (WHO), which determines, if the water is usable or not. This leads us to the
obvious need of water quality test through WQI index method, since, application of poor-
quality water in agriculture or using it for drinking purposes, can result in reduced crop yield,
and can cause human health hazard.
GIS plays an important role when it concerns natural resources and environmental issues. In
case of groundwater, it can be used for analysis of site, prediction of exposure of the water
source to potential pollution and other degrading parameters, groundwater movement
modeling, integration of groundwater quality assessment models with the available spatial data
of the concerned area (Nas, Berktay, & assessment, 2010). The main purpose of this project is
to do the groundwater quality assessment, spatially establish it using ARCGIS, and determine
if the groundwater of the area is usable. For understanding the quality of groundwater in
different areas, we have taken samples from different parts of our study area, conducted
chemical test and thus, estimated the value of the elements that gives the water quality. On the
basis of that, we have identified the areas where the water is suitable for drinking purposes with
the help of Water Quality Index (WQI index).
2. Methodology
2.1.Study Area
Gajapati district is located in Odisha state of India. It covers geographical area of 4325 sq. km
and is located at the South-west part of Odisha state and is divided into 7 administrative blocks.
Our study area involves the southern parts of Gajapati district, including mainly 3 blocks-
Kasinagar, Paralakhemundi, Rayagada. It stretches between 18° 40’N to 19° 10’ N latitudes
and 83° 50’ E to 84° 20’E longitudes. We have collected a total of 65 samples from all the 3
blocks with the help of bore wells. Mostly in these areas, bore well depth ranges from 25-30m,
and in some parts up to 60m.
Fig.1 Layout showing Southern parts of Gajapati district (Study Area)
Table 1. Station details

Elevation
(m above sea
FID Place Lat (N) Longitude (E) level)
0 Stn1 18.8183 84.2219 74.015
1 Stn2 18.81892 84.22137 76.055
2 Stn3 18.80812 84.22409 68.188
3 Stn4 18.81934 84.21891 68.933
4 Stn5 18.80897 84.2443 89.367
5 Stn6 18.80901 84.24429 89.115
6 Stn7 18.80919 84.24342 88.544
7 Stn8 18.80937 84.24295 84.300
8 Stn9 18.81487 84.23226 72.045
9 Stn10 18.97217 84.15986 148.056
10 Stn11 18.97252 84.15963 144.256
11 Stn12 18.97232 84.15733 137.298
12 Stn13 18.97243 84.1582 133.758
13 Stn14 18.97033 84.16006 149.242
14 Stn15 18.96973 84.15933 134.188
15 Stn16 18.91985 84.15324 96.153
16 Stn17 18.88433 84.18734 97.433
17 Stn18 18.88222 84.18818 93.004
18 Stn19 18.88429 84.18851 105.970
19 Stn20 18.88351 84.18877 103.931
20 Stn21 18.86561 84.19095 77.155
21 Stn22 18.86372 84.19671 76.054
22 Stn23 18.86141 84.19086 80.407
23 Stn24 18.86265 84.19526 77.048
24 Stn25 18.86778 84.19631 84.110
25 Stn26 18.85755 83.87958 68.460
26 Stn27 18.85816 83.87996 67.855
27 Stn28 18.85882 83.88132 69.272
28 Stn29 18.85795 83.87777 60.590
29 Stn30 18.85646 83.88032 68.289
30 Stn31 18.85594 83.87781 60.391
31 Stn32 18.85796 83.87772 60.830
32 Stn33 18.85572 83.87951 64.587
33 Stn34 18.85349 83.87966 64.153
34 Stn35 18.85477 83.87943 65.724
35 Stn36 18.77736 84.09178 73.933
36 Stn37 18.77649 84.09332 75.469
37 Stn38 18.77718 84.08876 67.000
38 Stn39 18.77285 84.10341 71.776
39 Stn40 18.77933 84.11343 67.292
40 Stn41 18.78351 84.11453 65.511
41 Stn42 18.79894 84.1294 70.246
42 Stn43 18.83183 84.2097 70.519
43 Stn44 18.83123 84.20584 75.027
44 Stn45 18.83196 84.19942 72.667
45 Stn46 18.83201 84.203 72.463
46 Stn47 18.83202 84.203 72.534
47 Stn48 18.83287 84.20219 73.828
48 Stn49 18.84492 84.18283 70.745
49 Stn50 18.84084 84.17862 73.887
50 Stn51 18.989 84.25 745.561
51 Stn52 18.98876 84.25142 748.081
52 Stn53 18.92722 84.31892 589.408
53 Stn54 18.92751 84.31872 587.298
54 Stn55 18.92765 84.31856 589.363
55 Stn56 18.91232 84.21493 581.571
56 Stn57 18.91288 84.21482 544.119
57 Stn58 18.85399 84.28831 112.115
58 Stn59 18.85577 84.28663 119.500
59 Stn60 18.95298 83.85732 101.669
60 Stn61 18.95154 83.85523 109.951
61 Stn62 18.95568 83.85925 126.393
62 Stn63 18.87336 83.99819 618.621
63 Stn64 18.82452 83.99479 66.750
64 Stn65 18.82456 83.99466 66.289
2.2.Sampling
After identification of the study area, 65 samples are collected from all over almost uniformly.
These samples are taken from bore wells/tube wells during post monsoon season (October
2022). All the water collection sources were accessible and on use by the local dwellers.
Locations, i.e., latitude and longitude of each station is recorded by the help of ‘GPS Map
Camera’. These are collected in pre-washed 350ml polyethylene bottles, and refrigerated for
preserving the chemicals in it, during the chemical analysis period.
2.3.Chemical Analysis
For each sample, we have performed 7 different tests, namely- pH, Electrical Conductivity
(EC), Chloride (Cl-), Calcium (Ca2+), Magnesium (Mg2+), Carbonate (CO32-), Bicarbonate
(BCO3-). After completion of all the experiments, the weight of each tested element per litre in
water sample is calculated by their respective formulas.
2.3.1. pH
pH test is done by pH meter. Firstly, the instrument was standardized with pH 4, pH 7 and
pH 9.2 solutions. After that, the water sample is taken in beaker and the glass rod of the
instrument is dipped in it. After 2 minutes, the value is recorded.
2.3.2. Electrical Conductivity (EC)
EC is measured with the help of EC meter. First it is calibrated with standardized 0.01 N
KCl solution and then the electrode is dipped in a plastic beaker, containing water sample
for 2 minutes. The value will be recorded for each sample.
2.3.3. Calcium (Ca2+)
Calcium was estimated by titrating 10ml water solution with ethylene diamine tetraacetic
acid, EDTA (0.01 N), NaOH (16 %) acted as the buffer while murexide acted as indicator.
2.3.4. Magnesium (Mg2+)
For estimating amount of magnesium in water sample, titration done with EDTA (0.01 N)
solution, in presence of ammonia buffer and EBT indicator.
2.3.5. Chloride (Cl-)
Chloride test is done by titration, where, 5 ml water sample was titrated with standard silver
nitrate (AgNO3) solution (0.05M) and potassium chromate, K2CrO4 (5%) solution acted as
indicator.
2.3.6. Carbonate (CO32-)
Carbonate content is found by titrating water samples with H2 SO4 solution in presence of
phenolphthalein indicator.
2.3.7. Bicarbonate (HCO3-)
Bicarbonate is estimated by titrating water samples with H2 SO4 solution, methyl orange
being the indicator.
2.4.Water Quality Index (WQI)
Water Quality Index (WQI) is a method that helps to understand the status of quality of
water of an area. It was first introduced by Horton (Horton) in the year 1965. He used 8
different parameters to determine water quality. In the year, 1970, a mathematical
expression was developed at the National Sanitation Foundation of USA known as National
Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index (NSFWQI) (a water quality). WQI is a rating
which gives us the information on how different factors are affecting the usual nature of
water. It enlightens the availability of water for different human utilizations. Quality check
of water is difficult for both common people and policy makers ((Akoteyon, Omotayo,
Soladoye, & Olaoye, 2011)) and these difficulties can be overcome best by the help of WQI
(((Tyagi, Sharma, Singh, & Dobhal, 2013)). Till date weighted arithmetic method index
given by Brown et. al. 1970 has given the most effective result in drinking water quality
estimation (evaluation). World Health Organization (WHO), Bureau of Indian Standards
(BIS), and Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) have their own recommendation
for drinking water quality, WQI is estimated by utilizing those standard values ((Singh &
Kamal, 2014)).
WQI is calculated by a series of steps. The first step is to calculate indicated quality rating
scale, qi. For that, the concentration (Ci) of the i parameter, calculated from chemical
analysis should be taken, as because they are the reason to change water quality. S i, i.e.,
standard value for that parameter is taken from WHO drinking quality parameters ((Al-
Khashman, Alnawafleh, Jrai, & Ala’a, 2017)). Then, qi can be calculated by the formula:
qi= (Ci/Si) * 100
Second step is to calculate relative weight (wi) of the parameters,
wi=1/Si
Third and final step is to calculate WQI by,
WQI= Σ qi wi / Σ wi
Water quality has been classified into 5 classes based on WQI, representing excellent,
good, poor, very poor, and inappropriate water for drinking ((Ramakrishnaiah,
Sadashivaiah, & Ranganna, 2009)). The table below shows the different classification of
drinking water quality with WQI range, class and type of water
Table 2. Classification of drinking water quality ()
Classification of drinking water quality

WQI Range Class Type of Water
Below 50 Class I Excellent water
50-100 Class II Good Water
100-200 Class III Poor water
200-300 Class IV Very poor water
300 and above Class V Inappropriate for drinking
In this study, 7 parameters have been used for calculating WQI index, namely, pH,
Electrical Conductivity (EC), Chloride (Cl-), Calcium (Ca2+), Magnesium (Mg2+),
Carbonate (CO32-), Bicarbonate (BCO3-).
Water quality of an area helps us to identify the purposes for which the water available in
that area can be utilized (Chatterjee, Tarafder, Paul, & environment, 2010). World Health
Organization (WHO) has specified the water quality standards (2004). Table 3 gives the
standard amount for each tested parameter in the water by WHO in mg/L ("<Guidelines
for drinking water quality.pdf>,"), while Table 4 shows the concentrations of the same
parameters present in sample water for the 65 stations.
Table 3. WHO standards for water quality
Parameters Units WHO standards

pH - 6.5-8.5
EC mS/cm 0.400
Ca2+ mg/L 100
Mg2+ mg/L 50
Cl- mg/L 250
CO32- mg/L -
HCO- mg/L 125-350
Table 4. Concentration of different parameters tested in 65 water samples.
EC Calcium Magnesium Chloride Carbonate Bicarbonate

FID Place pH (mS/cm) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l)
0 Stn1 7.11 1.113 182.364 55.89 212.7 0 439.344
1 Stn2 7.5 1.374 120.24 46.17 319.05 0 152.55
2 Stn3 7.14 1.629 228.456 111.78 389.95 0 122.04
3 Stn4 7 1.38 178.356 66.825 389.95 0 103.734
4 Stn5 6.37 0.375 202.404 65.61 177.25 0 42.714
5 Stn6 6.53 0.45 88.176 13.365 141.8 0 48.816
6 Stn7 6.83 0.825 110.22 40.095 248.15 0 79.326
7 Stn8 7.2 0.983 98.196 280.665 283.6 0 122.04
8 Stn9 7.24 1.264 114.228 61.965 389.95 0 122.04
9 Stn10 6.74 0.784 82.164 37.665 319.05 0 79.326
10 Stn11 6.48 0.464 56.112 26.73 212.7 0 61.02
11 Stn12 6.34 0.631 82.164 32.805 248.15 0 48.816
12 Stn13 5.85 0.594 84.168 36.45 283.6 0 61.02
13 Stn14 6.41 0.765 102.204 38.88 212.7 0 79.326
14 Stn15 6.27 0.401 54.108 27.945 177.25 0 85.428
15 Stn16 6.07 0.232 44.088 8.505 177.25 0 54.918
16 Stn17 5.9 0.46 70.14 30.375 248.15 0 54.918
17 Stn18 6.44 0.158 30.06 1.215 141.8 0 42.714
18 Stn19 5.96 0.075 6.012 6.075 106.35 0 61.02
19 Stn20 5.97 0.424 42.084 29.16 141.8 0 48.816
20 Stn21 6.37 0.352 24.048 19.44 141.8 0 61.02
21 Stn22 6.5 1.335 26.052 61.965 354.5 0 250.182
22 Stn23 7.3 0.607 88.176 35.235 248.15 0 103.734
23 Stn24 7.24 1.144 90.18 55.89 319.05 0 164.754
24 Stn25 7 0.674 84.168 41.31 212.7 0 134.244
25 Stn26 7.17 0.922 108.216 94.77 319.05 0 158.652
26 Stn27 7.21 0.632 58.116 64.395 283.6 0 140.346
27 Stn28 7 0.827 82.164 149.445 283.6 0 128.142
28 Stn29 7.12 0.925 94.188 109.35 389.95 0 140.346
29 Stn30 7.19 1.133 66.132 93.555 354.5 0 158.652
30 Stn31 6.86 0.695 76.152 43.74 212.7 0 176.958
31 Stn32 7.12 0.826 66.132 72.9 283.6 0 122.04
32 Stn33 7.13 1.1 92.184 91.125 567.2 0 152.55
33 Stn34 7.16 1.086 82.164 86.265 248.15 0 164.754
34 Stn35 7.37 0.668 62.124 82.62 248.15 0 134.244
35 Stn36 7.58 0.606 46.092 19.44 177.25 0 213.57
36 Stn37 7.36 0.559 44.088 52.245 283.6 0 103.734
37 Stn38 7.74 1.88 122.244 139.725 496.3 0 170.856
38 Stn39 7.44 0.439 34.068 27.945 212.7 0 91.53
39 Stn40 7.62 0.517 60.12 42.525 212.7 0 152.55
40 Stn41 7.61 1.69 194.388 81.405 602.65 0 189.162
41 Stn42 7.87 1.84 200.4 31.59 567.2 0 170.856
42 Stn43 7.64 0.956 124.248 69.255 460.85 0 146.448
43 Stn44 7.63 1.232 134.268 92.34 460.85 0 183.06
44 Stn45 7.67 0.967 92.184 58.32 319.05 0 195.264
45 Stn46 7.79 0.859 30.06 32.805 248.15 0 250.182
46 Stn47 8.25 0.419 56.112 35.235 319.05 0 170.856
47 Stn48 7.62 0.816 90.18 85.05 425.4 0 189.162
48 Stn49 7.62 1.014 6.012 14.58 319.05 0 91.53
49 Stn50 7.47 0.339 40.08 34.02 212.7 0 134.244
50 Stn51 8.1 1.102 74.148 31.59 319.05 0 103.734
51 Stn52 7.72 0.332 26.052 42.525 212.7 0 140.346
52 Stn53 7.88 0.18 60.12 35.235 141.8 0 42.714
53 Stn54 7.5 0.192 50.1 37.665 212.7 0 54.918
54 Stn55 7.66 1.12 74.148 51.03 212.7 0 73.224
55 Stn56 6.7 0.598 142.284 23.085 354.5 0 30.51
56 Stn57 7 0.621 136.272 18.225 425.4 0 48.816
57 Stn58 8.1 1.13 84.168 36.45 177.25 0 79.326
58 Stn59 7.8 1.244 94.188 61.965 248.15 0 54.918
59 Stn60 7.3 0.887 138.276 77.76 106.35 0 195.264
60 Stn61 7.5 0.756 112.224 71.685 177.25 0 176.958
61 Stn62 7.2 0.795 118.236 75.33 283.6 0 164.754
62 Stn63 7.7 0.457 88.176 25.515 141.8 0 140.346
63 Stn64 8.28 0.767 150.3 18.225 389.95 0 189.162
64 Stn65 7.9 0.891 110.22 44.955 354.5 0 207.468
Thereafter, in ARCGIS for each element, we have done interpolation by IDW method from
spatial analyst tool extension, for the entire area with the observed dataset. It shows the
approximate spatial distribution of pH, EC, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, CO32-, HCO3- over the southern
parts of Gajapati district (study area). Each map is having 6 classes which shows the
different ranges and over which area it exists.
A B
C D
E F
Fig 2. Spatial distribution of pH (A), EC (B), Ca2+ (C), Mg2+ (D), Cl- (E), HCO- (F)
After interpolation of each parameter, we have calculated the WQI index for the 65 stations
(Table 5) and interpolated it to show the range of water quality index in the southern parts
of Gajapati district (Fig 3.). The research gave that the study area is having WQI index
between the range 56 to 149, which means, the area is mostly having a good quality of
water, suitable for drinking purposes, while some others ranging above 100, are having
poor quality of water and should be used after filtration.
Table 5. WQI quality index of each sample area.
Station number Water Quality Index (WQI)

Stn1 97.416
Stn2 95.052
Stn3 117.066
Stn4 100.101
Stn5 89.284
Stn6 70.077
Stn7 83.671
Stn8 148.669
Stn9 96.527
Stn10 81.031
Stn11 71.841
Stn12 74.776
Stn13 71.790
Stn14 78.548
Stn15 69.686
Stn16 61.501
Stn17 68.864
Stn18 61.293
Stn19 56.171
Stn20 66.125
Stn21 65.803
Stn22 84.975
Stn23 84.431
Stn24 92.470
Stn25 83.143
Stn26 101.991
Stn27 89.804
Stn28 111.865
Stn29 105.011
Stn30 100.379
Stn31 82.323
Stn32 92.365
Stn33 102.895
Stn34 98.039
Stn35 95.863
Stn36 80.040
Stn37 86.656
Stn38 125.046
Stn39 79.268
Stn40 86.857
Stn41 114.060
Stn42 104.184
Stn43 102.172
Stn44 109.893
Stn45 96.461
Stn46 86.195
Stn47 91.087
Stn48 103.154
Stn49 79.036
Stn50 81.288
Stn51 92.355
Stn52 84.769
Stn53 84.656
Stn54 82.121
Stn55 92.258
Stn56 80.160
Stn57 82.093
Stn58 92.771
Stn59 98.314
Stn60 98.602
Stn61 97.264
Stn62 97.106
Stn63 83.991
Stn64 95.220
Stn65 96.355
Fig 3. Map showing Water Quality Index in the study area after interpolation.
4. Conclusion
Identifying and maintenance of groundwater is very essential for any area. It helps to
understand where, when and how one can use the water resources present in an area.
Groundwater quality keeps changing based on land use and land cover of an area. So, it is
essential to keep in check the parameters affecting its’ quality. Use of unchecked water
resource, with toxic constituents in higher level can affect both human health and crop
yield. The main goal of this research was to find out and map the water quality of the
southern parts of Gajapati district, Odisha, including 3 blocks. Spatial distribution of the
different parameters, affecting water quality, has been shown after carrying out
interpolation in ARCGIS software. It has been found after the study that the WQI range is
mostly within safe limit. They range between Class I to Class III of Table 2. The areas
where the groundwater quality is poor, can be used with for drinking purposes with little
bit of filtration. Further studies are expected to be done on Irrigation Groundwater Quality
Index (IWQ) to understand the effectiveness of this groundwater on Irrigation.
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water quality index for the groundwater in Tumkur Taluk, Karnataka State, India. 6(2),
523-530.
Singh, G., & Kamal, R. K. J. C. W. E. (2014). Application of water quality index for assessment
of surface water quality status in Goa. 9(3), 994.
Tyagi, S., Sharma, B., Singh, P., & Dobhal, R. J. A. J. o. w. r. (2013). Water quality assessment
in terms of water quality index. 1(3), 34-38.
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Risk during Crop Growing Seasons in
Odisha and West Bengal
Arindam Chattaraj*, Subhankar Debnath, Santosh D.T.
School of Agricultural and Bio-Engineering, Centurion University of Technology and

Management, Odisha, India
*Corresponding author. E-mail: arindamchattaraj2000@gmail.com
Abstract
Hydrological research has substantially advanced due to spatial and temporal analysis. Its
main goal has always been to create trend assessments of hydrological extremes, which are
essential for managing regional water resources, assessing the risk of hydrological hazards,
and creating climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to analyse the
spatiotemporal analysis for drought risk throughout the crop growing season (June–
November) in India, this article compares Odisha and West Bengal in greater depth. These
two states are among those that experience severe floods as well as drought. Thus, the
probable result would help in identification of distinct changes in vegetation cover, crop
production, and other parameters. The research is based on the 70 years of rainfall data
collected from 1951 to 2019 for study area. The analysis is accomplished by the Mann-
Kendall Trend Test, Sen’s slope, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For the
occurrence of drought during the crop growing seasons, the temporal and spatial variance is
examined. From the analysis, it is expected to witness the drought-prone areas of Odisha and
West Bengal which might indicate major signs of drought during the crop growing season.
From the expected results, a comparative study would be drawn to study the differences in
vegetation and crop production in these two states during these two phases which will further
help in understanding the cause and mitigate problems in the affected areas. This will also
further help to predict the future trends of drought and help in taking precautionary measures
to sustain the same in the drought-affected areas.
Keywords: Drought Risk; Standardized Precipitation Index; Mann-Kendall Trend Test; Sen’s
slope.
1. Introduction
Climate change is one of the most advancing and greatest challenge faced by humanity.
Research and analyses uncovers the fact that climate change has indeed started to impact the
crop production (Dai, Shulski, Hubbard, & Takle, 2016) and the difficulties faced by
agriculture relative are imminent. Drought, heat waves, extreme storms, hurricanes, typhoons
are now common in several parts of the globe. According to a study, it says that in the coming
decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security and
rural livelihoods. Variations in the intensity, length, and frequency of precipitation events are
expected to result from changes in the hydrologic cycle brought on by an increase in
greenhouse gas emissions, a consequence of climate change (Mirhosseini, Srivastava, &
Stefanova, 2013). The southwest summer monsoon, spreads from June to September which is
thee major rainfall period in India as the torrential monsoon rains supplies about 80% of India’s
annual rainfall(Naresh Kumar, Murthy, Sesha Sai, & Roy, 2012). Rainfall during this season
plays a very crucial role in economic development, disaster management and hydrological
planning in the country.
Time series rainfall data analysis of any region helps in better understanding its drought
climatology. In addition to it, detection of changes in intensity, magnitude and duration of
drought, identification of frequent drought affected regions too plays an important role in
drought management. Further, the historical findings provide indication of future plot. The
creation of more targeted management tasks is made possible by knowledge of the spatial and
temporal features of drought occurrence and spread. So, it is essential to have a comprehensive
understanding of drought climatology in order to develop effective drought management
techniques, especially in tropical areas like India.
There are several indicators to measure meteorological dryness, such as simple rainfall
deviation from historic norms, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI). Comparing these indices, SPI has been widely used in recent years
because of its simple calculation and reliable interpretation. Simple measures are preferable to
employing complicated hydrological indices for describing dryness. SPI is a quick and efficient
approach for learning about drought climatology (Lloyd‐Hughes & Saunders, 2002; Olukayode
Oladipo, 1985).
The objective of the study is to develop a long-term monthly SPI time series from the rainfall
data to analyze the SPI derived Area Under Dryness (AUD) for drought spread, frequency and
persistence. The major prominence will be primarily on highlighting the spatial and temporal
variations in the occurrence of meteorological dryness. The forward sections consist the
methodology for computing SPI and determining the trend analysis using Mann-Kendall trend
coefficient and Sen’s Slope, following which it consists the results and discussion which
presents the outcome of the analysis.
2. Methodology
2.1 Study Area
West Bengal and Odisha are two of the largest crops growing states of India. Adding to it these
states are more prone to natural calamities. It can be said they fall under the list of worst
affected state in terms of natural calamities. Sharing almost the same climatic conditions every
year the states are known for their largest agricultural produce in rice, pulses, oilseeds, jute,
coconut and turmeric. Agriculture is the lifeline of these states, where Odisha contributes
around 15% of the gross state domestic product (Santos et al., 2021) and West Bengal
contributes around 23.53% of the gross state domestic produce. Here, agriculture is primarily
rain-fed, and extreme rainfall strains not only agriculture but also other economic endeavors
(Ghosh, 2019). Furthermore, the states’ agricultural sector is endangered to weather changes
as these states are monsoon rainfall dependent. The heat and cold waves that move in from the
northern Indian plains have a significant impact on the states' tropical climate. High
temperatures (40 °C during the hottest part of the summer), high humidity, moderate to heavy
rainfall, and brief and mild winters are all characteristics of this climate. Warm sunshine and
persistent humidity are frequent characteristics of the winters (December to February). Rainfall
in the state occurs from June to September, followed by a brief post-monsoon season from
October to November (Santos et al., 2021).
2.2 Data Source
Daily rainfall data from June to November for 115 years (1901-2016) generated by the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) at a grid size of 0.25x0.25 were used in this study. Monthly
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated using the Pearson III distribution for
different years. The missing data was filled up, gridded precipitation data 0.25° spatial
resolution was been used to achieve meaningful result from the analysis.
2.3 Drought index calculation
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) designed by (McKee, Doesken, & Kleist, 1993) is
been deployed to evaluate the potential drought risk zones of West Bengal and Odisha. SPI has
remained the most widely used indicator when it comes to drought forecasting, frequency
analysis, spatio-temporal analysis and climate change impact studies (Dahal et al., 2016;
Mishra & Singh, 2010). Even World Meteorological Organisation recommends SPI as a means
to determine meteorological drought index (Hayes, Svoboda, Wall, & Widhalm, 2011).
SPI is calculated by fitting the rainfall data at a specified station to a probability distribution,
which is then transformed to a normal distribution with a mean SPI of 0 (Dahal et al., 2016;
Edwards, 1997). If x is any precipitation data series of any desired time scale, then its
probability density function satisfying gamma distribution is,
x
1 −
f ( x) =  x a −1e  β
 ()
Here, α and β stands for shape and scale parameters respectively.
By the means of maximum likelihood classification and integrating the probability density
function with respect to 𝑥 and inserting the values of 𝑎 and 𝑏, the gamma cumulative
distribution function (cdf) is computed at each value of 𝑥. By this the shape and scale
parameters are estimated. Later the ‘ cdf ’ is transformed into standard normal distribution to
yield SPI.
2.4 Mann-Kendall test
Talking about hydrological aspect the Mann-Kendall test is considered the most popular rank-
based method for identifying the trend in hydro climatological variable (Kendall, 1948; Mann,
1945). Here in this study, it is applied to evaluate the trend of seasonal climate data (monsoon
season – June to November) for the historical period (1901-2016) and projected periods (2030
and 2050) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios at 95% confidence level. The Man-Kendall
(MK) test statistic is defined as:
n −1 n
S =   sgn( X j − X i )
i =1 j =i +1
where, n is the length of the data set, X i and X j represent data points in time series 𝑖 and 𝑗,
respectively (𝑖 < 𝑗):

+1 if ( X j − X i )  0

sgn( X j − X i ) = 0, if ( X j − X i ) = 0

−1 if ( X j − X i )  0
It is been found that for 𝑛 ≥ 10, static S is normally distributed with:
𝐸(𝑆) = 0
n(n − 1) (2n + 5) −  i =1 ti (ti − 1) (2ti + 5)

m
V (S ) =
18
where, 𝐸(𝑆) is the mean V ( S ) is the variance of S , m is the number of tied groups, and ti is
the size of the ith tied group. The standard normal test statistics Z is given by:
 S −1
 V ( S ) , if S  0

Z =  0, if S = 0
 S +1
 , if S  0
 V ( S )
The null hypothesis of "no trend in time series" is rejected and a significant trend is found if |Z|
is determined to be bigger than critical value 1.96 at 5% significance level (Debnath et al.,
2021). A rising trend is indicated by a positive Z statistic, and vice versa.
2.5 Modified Man-Kendall’s test
Previously in the Man-Kendall test, it was assumed to have the data as random and
independent. Yet, there’s still remains an existence of positive autocorrection in the data which
in terms upscales the chances of determining trends when it doesn’t exist in actual condition
and vice versa. Keeping this drawback in mind, the Modified Man-Kendall (Hamed & Rao,
1998) test was conducted in this study for determining trends trend in autocorrected time series
by taking in the effect of autocorrection on the variance of the Man-Kendall trend test statistic.
In order to apply this, the following procedures are performed.
At first, all the time series data are examined for possible lag-1 autocorrection (r1) by using the
following relationship given by (Box, Jenkins, Reinsel, & Ljung, 2015)
Ck
rk =
Co
1 n−k
Ck =  ( xi − x) ( xi+k − x)
n i =1
1 n
Co =  ( xi − x)2
n i =1
where, rk is the kth lag autocorrection.
The upper and lower critical values of autocorrection can be acquired from Anderson’s test
(Anderson, 1942) as follows:
 1   n − k −1 
(rk )upper = −   + Z 1−  
 n−k  2  n − k 
 1   n − k −1 
(rk )lower = −   − Z1−  
 n−k  2  n − k 
Where, z1− /2 is the two-tailed standard variate at the α significance level. If rk falls within the
critical values, data is assumed to be serially independent.
Under situation when data is found to have lag-1 autocorrection, modified variance V(S)* is
n
calculated by considering the variance correction factor   into account as follows:
 ns 
n
V ( S )* = V ( S ) 
ns
n −1
n n
ns
= 1+  (n − k ) (n − k − 1) (n − k − 2) rk
n(n − 1) (n − 2) k =1
It should be noted that, only significant values of rk are used to calculate the correction factor.
2.6 Sen’s Slope estimator test (SSE)
(Sen, 1968) derived a method for the determination of Kendall Tau. This technique can be used
to estimate the slope of a linear trend that results from a linear equation as follows:
f (t ) = Qt + B
Here, f (t ) is known as the function of time representing the time series, t is the time, B is
known as the constant, and Q is the slope. Q can be contracted by the equation (Dawood, 2017;
Mohammad et al., 2022):
x j − xk
Qi =
j−k
Here, at time j and k, j > k and i = 1,2,3…., N, x j and xk stand in for the values of the data
pairs. The median of the N values of Qi can be found by using the following by (Dawood,
2017);
Q N +1
  2  ; if N is odd
Q = 1
 Q N  + Q N + 2 
 2  2   2  ; if
 
N is even
When the value of Qi is positive, it can be determined that there is a chance to see a rising limb
in the curve and similarly, a downgrade trend will be visible if the value of Qi is found to be
negative. It should be noted that, when the value is equal to zero, there is no indication of trend
(Dawood, 2017; Salmi, Määttä, Anttila, Ruoho-Airola, & Amnell, 2002).
Results and Discussion
The data were divided into a period of 30 years for the ease of the software to read and easier
for us to study and compute the results. The classified data were divided in a year range of
1901-1930, 1931-1960,1961-1990 and 1991-2016. Thus, from the year range of 1901-1930 it
was found that z value showed a significant range of -2.85 to 3.35., this showed a significant
trend. On computing and visualizing with the SSE it was found that in this of span of 30 years
there have been a significant rise in the increase of drought risk zones during the crop growing
seasons. (Fig1)
For the year range of 1931-1960 the graph depicted much changes. The z value showed a steep
range from -2.75 to 3.46., on applying SSE for identifying the trend it was found that there has
been a sharp increase in the Deceasing Trend of the potential drought risk areas, compared to
the last 30years. (Fig:2)
When computed for the next 30 years, from 1961 to 1990 it was found that, the z value lied
within a range of -5.31 to 3.50, after it was treated with the Sen’s Slope estimator, it was found
that there’s been significant decrease in the increasing trend of drought risk for both the states.
The visualized image is shown in Fig:3.
The final ranges from 1991 to 2016 showed a drastic change in the z value varying from, -4.8
to 2.69, the SSE gave a clear visualization indicating the presence of negligible presence of
potential drought risk areas in both the states in this time frame. The visualized image is shown
in Fig:4.
Fig: 1 Fig: 2
Fig: 3 Fig: 4
Conclusions
After shear calculations and visualizations, it was found that, there has been years which was
found as rainfall deficient. Due to topographical variations, there is large spatial variations
within the regions of Odisha and West Bengal. The Years from 1901 to 1930 showed a very
decreasing trend of precipitation and increasing trend of drought risks. Also, over the years the
trend of precipitation increased which the decreasing trend of drought risk zones which was
quite visible from the mid of the range of 1931 to 1960. In the later years it was observed that
the trend of potential drought risk zones declined over the years from 1961 to 2016.
Reference:
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Box, G. E., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: forecasting
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Lakhankar, T. J. N. h. (2016). Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial
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of Midwest US temperature and precipitation trends during the growing season from 1980 to
2013. 36(1), 517-525.
Dawood, M. J. C. d. (2017). Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann–Kendall
and Sen’s slope approach. 48(3), 783-797.
Debnath, S., Mishra, A., Mailapalli, D., Raghuwanshi, N., Sridhar, V. J. J. o. W., & Change, C. (2021).
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scales. Retrieved from
Ghosh, K. G. J. G. D. (2019). Spatial and temporal appraisal of drought jeopardy over the Gangetic
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Hamed, K. H., & Rao, A. R. J. J. o. h. (1998). A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated
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on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended. 92(4), 485-488.
Kendall, M. G. (1948). Rank correlation methods.
Lloyd‐Hughes, B., & Saunders, M. A. J. I. J. o. C. A. J. o. t. R. M. S. (2002). A drought climatology for
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McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration
to time scales. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied
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(2022). Assessment of spatio-temporal trends of satellite-based aerosol optical depth using
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December 22 -24, 2022
Analysis of Various Breach Parameters using HEC-RAS 2D of

Ramganga Dam, Uttarakhand
Pranav Singh1, Jyothi Prasad2 and H. J. Shiva Prasad3
1
M.Tech Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Govind Ballabh Pant University of
Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar-263145 (Uttarakhand) India
Email: pranavsingh628@gmail.com
2&3
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture
& Technology, Pantnagar-263145 (Uttarakhand) India;
Email: profjyothiprasad@gmail.com, prof.hjsp@gmail.com
Abstract
A dam is a structure constructed across a river to store and supply water for various uses.
Despite the many advantages of dams, the possibility of devastating dam breach floods exists
constantly. It is crucial to analyze and simulate dam failure scenarios to fully understand the
severity of a dam breach flood and identify areas at hazard. This study uses the Hydraulic
Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydraulic model
to analyze the possibility of a dam breach at the Ramganga dam. Ramganga dam is also known
as Kalagarh dam, an earth and rock-fill dam on the Ramganga River, which is 3 km upstream
of Kalagarh in the Pauri Garhwal district of Uttrakhand, India. It is located within Jim Corbett
National Park and has a latitude and longitude of 29°31′13″N and 78°45′35″E, respectively. In
the present study, analysis of breach parameters was carried out to evaluate how each
parameters such as width of the breach (𝐵𝑎𝑣𝑔.), side slope (Z) and formation time of the breach
(𝑡𝑓) would affect the flood hydrographs. The hydrograph of the resulting flood was calculated
using the HEC-RAS model to determine the impact of each parameters. The width of the
breach (𝐵𝑎𝑣𝑔.), side slope (Z) and formation time of the breach (𝑡𝑓) increased by 25%, 50%,
75% and 100% and decreased by 25%, 50% and 75%, respectively. The flood hydrograph was
estimated at two different locations that are Kalagarh and Harewali which are located at 2.5 km
and 16.9 km downstream of the Ramganga dam, respectively. Froehlich method was used with
the overtopping failure mode to determine the impact of each breach parameter and breaching
time at the maximum operational level of 365.3 meters. The results show how the peak
discharge can fluctuate by varying the timing of failure, bottom breach width and side slope.
Keywords: Dam Breach, Analysis of breach parameters, HEC-RAS, Ramganga Dam.
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December 22 -24, 2022
1. Introduction
1.1 General
Dams are hydraulic structures made of relatively impervious material built across rivers to
form reservoirs on their upstream sides for storing water for various purposes. These purposes
include irrigation, hydropower, water supply, flood control, navigation, fishing and
multipurpose reservoir serving as flood control and drought mitigation structures and storage
place for arresting sediment (Hurdowar-Castro et al., 2007). Dams can be designed to serve
one of the aforementioned goals (single purpose or multiple purposes). In the upstream
catchment area, where land use is changing and human activity is interrupted, more soil erosion
and deposits in reservoirs occur. When a high flood occurs, there is not enough space available
to attenuate the impending flood and excess flood overflow over the dam section leading to a
dam breach scenario that generates a massive amount of flood wave inundating downstream
reaches of the dam.
Despite many uses of dams and reservoirs, the disaster caused by the dam failure creates
damages greater than the damages caused by the other disasters altogether. Dam breaches can
be described as partial or catastrophic failures leading to the uncontrolled release of enormous
floods downstream (Fread, 1993). Flood generated from the dam breach is much higher than
flood caused by heavy precipitation. “The bigger the dam, the worse will be the flood when it
breaks”. In the last three decades, the interest in determining the safety of dams has increased
worldwide. Most recently, heavy floods due to the bursting of the Nanda Devi glacier at
Joshimath in the Chamoli district of Uttarakhand reportedly damaged the Rishiganga
hydropower dam, which exacerbated the flood and led to significant human casualties and
property damage (Pandey et al., 2021).One of the aspect of dam safety is reducing loss of life
and damage to downstream properties. Safety management studies often require predicting the
breach shape, outflow hydrograph, and breach deformation time. Therefore, knowing how
existing and proposed dams can fail and the consequences of their failure is crucial for
mitigating disaster risk created by their construction.
The high flood created by the dam breach travel downstream of the dam creating damage to
the life of human beings and properties along the reach of the flood wave (Katopodes &
Strelkoff, 2002; Sakkas&Strelkoff, 2007). Additional problems created by extreme flooding
are socio-civil conflicts, environmental problems and economic losses (Ghimire et al., 2015;
Li & Shi, 2015; Aerts &Botzen, 2011).
The study of over 1065 earthen dam failures reveals that significant causes of earthen dam
failure are overtopping and piping. Spillways, downstream slopes and foundations are the
potential locations at risk for overtopping failure, whereas for the piping failure entire dam
section is at potential risk (Zhang et al., 2009).
Even though we have the latest technologies in design methodologies and construction
techniques, the failure of dams still occurs. Studies conducted on various failures of dams that
occurred in India and all over the world indicated the hazard caused by dam failures. Hence,
emphasis should be given to better managing the flood by preparing an emergency action plan
to minimize the hazards of the flood in the floodplain rather than preventing the flood. It is
necessary to analyze the behavior of floods before suggesting flood management measures, and
Page 2
December 22 -24, 2022
this can be done by analyzing the flood based on the observed floods.
Numerical models simulate the dam breach and flood event based on various parameters.
Hence numerical models are an essential tool for analyzing flood events.
Many researchers have compared one and two-dimensional hydraulic models, among
which the Hydrological Engineering Centre – River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was the
most commonly used model for dam breach analysis (Rendon et al., 2012) because of its
reliable prediction and the fact that it is an open-source tool. Researchers have also preferred
using the HEC-RAS model for flood simulation as it gives accurate results, even though the
complex channel geometry and bed discontinuity exists by approximation, which poses
significant challenges in more robust unsteady hydraulic models. HEC-RAS was developed by
the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to manage and control rivers, channels
and other public works. HEC-RAS software provides simulations like one-dimensional steady
flow, two-dimensional unsteady flow and coupling of one and two-dimensional unsteady flow,
sediment transport and bed load computations.
Most of the models do not directly simulate the breach; instead, the user must determine the
ultimate breach parameters and the time required for breach formation. After providing the
inputs to the hydraulic model, it then progressively simulates the breach development.
Ultimately, the breach parameters are estimated using various empirical equations developed
based on the dam and reservoir characteristics such as dam height and storage volume (Wahl,
1997).
The primary objective of this study was to perform analysis of dam breach parameters for
the Ramganga dam and to predict the percent change in peak flood discharge along with the
time of occurrence at Kalagarh and Harewali.
2.1 Study area

The Ramganga dam, also known as the Kalagarh dam, is an earth and rock-fill dam on
the Ramganga River, which is 3 km upstream of Kalagarh in the PauriGarhwal district of
Uttarakhand, India. It is located within the Jim Corbett National Park and has latitude and
longitude of 29°31′13″N and 78°45′35″E, respectively. The dam is 128 meters in height and
630 meters in length, with a reservoir capacity of 2447 Mcum. The dam is owned and operated
by the Irrigation Department, Government of Uttar Pradesh. The location of the Ramganga
dam site is shown in Figure 1.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 1: Location of Study Area
2.2 Data required for modeling
In the present study, data was collected from the dam authority of Ramganga. The
following are the data used for two-dimensional model:
 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Ramganga dam site.
 Salient features of the dam and its hydraulic structures.
 Design flood hydrograph or probable maximum flood as an upstream boundary
condition.
 Manning’s roughness coefficient value of the site (Chow, V. T. 1959).
 Normal depth downstream of the dam is used as a downstream boundary condition.
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December 22 -24, 2022
2.3 Methodology
HEC-RAS was developed by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The model simulates the
resulting flood wave generated based on the consequences of an upstream event and models the
downstream effect based on the result of a dam breach. HEC-RAS 6.2 model, released on
March 11, 2022 was used for the analysis. The simulation process used in 2D HEC-RAS for
dam breach modeling and analysis of breach parameters are given in the following steps:
Step 1: Download DEM from Online Source and prepare terrain using DEM of the study area
on RAS Mapper.
Step 2: Create 2D Area, Storage Area, SA/2D Connection Using Geometric Data Editor.
Step 3: Input all Data Required Such as Hydraulic Structure detail, Breach Parameters using
Geometric Editor.
Step 4: Input upstream and as downstream Boundary Conditions, Elevation Controlled Gate
data, Initial Condition.
Step 5: Unsteady Flow Analysis was performed.
Step 6: Results were produced using RAS Mapper.
Step 7: Sensitivity Analysis of Breach Model input parameters.
Step 8: Inundation Maps are Prepared Using ArcGIS.
In the present work, the 2D Saint Venant equation was used, which can be obtained
from Reynold’s Navier Stoke Equation by depth averaging method and assuming hydrostatic
pressure distribution and small channel slope and are shown below:
 Conservation of mass:
ℎ (ℎ.𝑢) (ℎ.𝑣)
+ 𝑥 + 𝑦 =0 … (2.1)
𝑡
 Conservation of momentum
(ℎ.𝑢) (ℎ.𝑢2 +0.5𝑔.ℎ2 ) (ℎ.𝑣)
+ + =0
𝑡 𝑥 𝑦 … (2.2)
(ℎ.𝑣) (ℎ.𝑣 2 +0.5𝑔.ℎ2 ) (ℎ.𝑢)
+ + =0 … (2.3)
𝑡 𝑥 𝑦
Where, h = water depth
𝑢 and 𝑣 = horizontal and vertical velocities in X and Y directions respectively.
The simplest approach to breach parameter prediction modeling is by estimating the breach
parameter using various empirical formulae as given by many researchers including Froehlich
(1995), Froehlich (2008), Von Thun and Gillette (1990) and MacDonald et al. (1984) and then
comparing their result with guidelines given by different agencies such as USACE, National
Weather Service (NWS) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). After complete
analysis and calculation, Froehlich's (2008) breach parameters are considered and USACE
2007 guidelines are used in this work with an overtopping failure mode.
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
2.4 Analysis of Breach Parameters
Analysis of breach parameters was carried out by varying the breach width, time of failure
(tf) and side slope (Z) of the breach parameters as obtained from Froehlich’s (2008) equations
by 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%, respectively while keeping the remaining parameters constant to
understand their impact on peak flow (Xiong, 2011; Sidek and Ros, 2011).
The results are developed after hypothetical breach modelling of the Ramganga dam by
using 2D HEC-RAS and the flow hydrographs are compared at Kalagarh and Harewali. Tables
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 represent the percent change in values of peak flow and the time of
occurrence whereas Figures 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 represent the peak flow corresponding to the
variation in breach width, time of failure and side slope.
Table 1: Summary of the % change in Q and TQ(max) for varying breach width (B) at Kalagarh
KALAGARH
B Qmax TQ(max)
% B diff. % Qmax % TQ(max) NOTE
(m) (cumec) (min)
700 100 — — — — A+100%
612.5 75 178510.08 29.74 2:20 -22.22 A+75%
525 50 165861.14 20.55 2:30 -16.67 A+50%
437.5 25 152658.70 10.95 2:40 -11.11 A+25%
350 0 137590.91 0.00 3:00 0.00 Original (A)
262.5 -25 121029.56 -12.04 3:10 5.56 A-25%
175 -50 102046.25 -25.83 3:40 22.22 A-50%
87.5 -75 79203.46 -42.44 4:10 38.89 A-75%
Table 2: Summary of the % change in Q and TQ(max) for varying breach width (B) at Harewali
HAREWALI
B Qmax TQ(max)
% B diff. % Qmax % TQ(max) Remark
(m) (cumec) (min)
700 100 — — — — A+100%
612.5 75 171141.27 27.68 3:10 -17.39 A+75%
525 50 160053.02 19.41 3:20 -13.04 A+50%
437.5 25 147834.17 10.29 3:30 -8.70 A+25%
350 0 134037.75 0.00 3:50 0.00 Original (A)
262.5 -25 118276.38 -11.76 4:20 13.04 A-25%
175 -50 99759.84 -25.57 4:40 21.74 A-50%
87.5 -75 74604.70 -44.34 5:10 34.78 A-75%
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
Table 3: Summary of the % change in Q and TQ(max) for varying Time of failure (Tf) at
Kalagarh
KALAGARH
Tf Qmax TQ(max)
% tf diff. % Qmax % TQ(max) NOTE
(hr) (cumec) (hr)
8.18 100 102794.73 -25.29 3:40 22.22 A+100%
7.16 75 107682.33 -21.74 3:30 16.67 A+75%
6.14 50 114968.40 -16.44 3:20 11.11 A+50%
5.11 25 124421.51 -9.57 3:10 5.56 A+25%
4.09 0 137590.91 0.00 3:00 0.00 Original (A)
3.07 -25 157040.23 14.14 2:40 -11.11 A-25%
2.05 -50 188695.69 37.14 2:00 -33.33 A-50%
1.02 -75 221018.47 60.64 1:00 -66.67 A-75%
Table 4: Summary of the % change in Q and TQ(max) for varying Time of failure (Tf) at
Harewali
HAREWALI
tf Qmax TQ(max)
% tf diff. % Qmax % TQ(max) Remark
(hr) (cumec) (min)
8.18 100 100843.59 -24.77 4:50 26.09 A+100%
7.16 75 105596.96 -21.28 4:40 21.74 A+75%
6.14 50 112440.95 -16.11 4:30 17.39 A+50%
5.11 25 121590.52 -9.29 4:10 8.70 A+25%
4.09 0 134037.75 0.000 3:50 0 Original (A)
3.07 -25 151808.31 13.26 3:30 -8.70 A-25%
2.05 -50 171686.42 28.09 2:40 -30.44 A-50%
1.02 -75 182632.53 36.26 2:10 -43.48 A-75%
Table 5: Summary of the % change in Q and TQ(max) for varying side slope (Z) at Kalagarh
KALAGARH
Qmax TQ(max)
Z % Z diff. % Qmax % TQ(max) NOTE
(cumec) (min)
2 100 144558.77 5.06 2:20 -22.22 A+100%
1.75 75 142330.70 3.44 2:30 -16.67 A+75%
1.5 50 140389.78 2.03 2:30 -16.67 A+50%
1.25 25 138796.70 0.88 2:40 -11.11 A+25%
1 0 137590.91 0.00 3:00 0.00 Original (A)
0.75 -25 136652.38 -0.68 3:00 0.00 A-25%
0.5 -50 136041.88 -1.13 3:10 5.56 A-50%
0.25 -75 135567.66 -1.47 3:20 11.11 A-75%
0 -100 135427.67 -1.57 3:30 16.67 A-100%
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
Table 6: Summary of the % change in Q and TQ(max) for varying side slope (Z) at Harewali
HAREWALI
Qmax TQ(max)
Z % Z diff. % Qmax % TQ(max) Remark
(cumec) (min)
2 100 139635.59 4.18 3:20 -13.04 A+100%
1.75 75 137903.42 2.88 3:30 -8.70 A+75%
1.5 50 136316.58 1.70 3:40 -4.35 A+50%
1.25 25 135044.69 0.75 3:40 -4.35 A+25%
1 0 134037.75 0 3:50 0 Original (A)
0.75 -25 133186.59 -0.64 4:00 4.35 A-25%
0.5 -50 132552.83 -1.11 4:10 8.70 A-50%
0.25 -75 132099.33 -1.45 4:20 13.04 A-75%
0 -100 131982.08 -1.53 4:20 -13.04 A-100%
Based on the results in Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 it can be noticed that the peak
discharge increased when the breach width and side slope are increased and vice versa, i.e.,
peak discharge is directly proportional to the breach width and side slope whereas the peak
discharge decreased when the time of failure is increased and vice versa i.e. the peak discharge is
inversely proportional to the time of failure.
A detailed analysis of flood hydrographs has been carried out for Ramganga dam using
HEC-RAS software and the results are described in the following graphs.
Bavg +75%
Flow Value at Kalagarh Bavg +50%
200000
Bavg +25%
180000 Bavg + 0%
160000 Bavg -25%
Discharge (cumec)
140000 Bavg -50%

120000 Bavg -75%
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Time (hr)
Figure 2: Peak discharge versus time for varying breach width at Kalagarh
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
Bavg +75%
180000
Flow Value at Harewali Bavg +50%
Bavg +25%
160000 Bavg + 0%
Bavg -25%
Discharge (cumec)
140000
Bavg -50%
120000 Bavg -75%
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Time (hr)
Figure 3: Peak discharge versus time for varying breach width at Harewali
tf +100%
Flow value at Kalagarh tf +75%
250000 tf +50%
tf +25%
tf
200000 tf -25%
Discharge (cumec)
tf -50%
tf -75%
150000
100000
50000
0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
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12:00
14:00
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18:00
20:00
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06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Time (hr)
Figure 4: Peak discharge versus time for varying time of failure at Kalagarh
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
tf +100%
Flow value at Harewali tf +75%
200000 tf +50%
180000 tf +25%
tf
160000 tf -25%
140000
Discharge (cumec)
tf -50%
120000 tf -75%
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
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06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Time (hr)
Figure 5: Peak discharge versus time for varying time of failure at Harewali
Z+100%
160000 Flow value at Kalagarh Z+75%
Z+50%
140000 Z+25%
Z
Discharge (cumec)
120000 Z-25%
100000 Z-50%
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
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08:00
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08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Time (hr)
Figure 6: Peak discharge versus time for varying side slope at Kalagarh
Z+100%
Flow value at Harewali Z+75%
160000
Z+50%
140000 Z+25%
Z
Discharge (cumec)
120000 Z-25%
100000 Z-50%
Z-75%
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
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18:00
20:00
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00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
00:00
02:00
04:00
Time (hr)
Figure 7: Peak discharge versus time for varying side slope at Harewali
Page 10
December 22 -24, 2022
4. Conclusions
The analysis was done to know the change in peak flow corresponding to the breach width,
time of failure and side slope. A very small change in the breach width and time of failure
shows a very large change in the value of peak flow whereas a very small change in the side
slope shows a very small change in the value of peak flow. It has been concluded from the
results of the analysis of breach parameters that the peak flow is highly sensitive to the breach
width and time of failure but less sensitive to the side slope i.e., the peak flow is directly
proportional to the breach width and side slope but inversely proportional to the time of failure.
The present study will help the dam authority to develop the effective management plans such
as Emergency Action Plan (EAP) and to design early warning systems to reduce the future
flood risk, loss of life and property.
Acknowledgments
The author acknowledges the financial support received through GATE provided by the MoE,
Government of India. The author also acknowledges the guide and the faculty members of the
College of Technology, Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture and Technology,
Pantnagar for providing the proper guidance to carry out the present work. The author is also
thankful to the dam authority of Ramganga Dam for providing the necessary data of the dam to
conduct the present study.
References
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101-123.
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Hydropower Projects, FERC 0119-1. Office of Hydropower Licensing, pp. 9-17.
Fread, D. 1993. DAMBRK: The Dam Break Flood Forecasting Model. National Weather
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Springs, MD. 121p.
Froehlich, D. C. 2008. Embankment dam breach parameters and their uncertainties. J. Hydraul.
Eng., 134(12): 1708-1721.
Froelich, D. C. 1995. Embankment dam breach parameters revised. In: First International
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Ghimire, R., Ferreira, S., &Dorfman, J. 2015. Flood induced displacement and civil conflict.
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Hurdowar-Castro, D., Tsanis, I., &Simanovskis, I. 2007.Application of Three-dimensional
wind driven circulation model to assess the locations of new drinking water intakes in
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Katopodes, N., &Strelkoff, T. 2002. Computing two-dimensional dam-break flood waves. J.
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Hydrau. Div., 104(9): 1269-1288.

Li, J., & Shi, W. 2015. Effects of alpine swamp wetland change on rainfall season runoff and
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, USA, pp
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Pandey, P., Chauhan, P., Bhatt, C. M., Aggrawal, S. P. 2021. Cause and Process Mechanism of
Rockslide Triggered Flood Event in Rishiganga and Dhauliganga River Valleys,
Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India Using Satellite Remote Sensing and in situ Observations.
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for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma. US Department of Interior,
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Sakkas, J. G., &Strelkoff, T. 2007. Dam-break flood in a prismatic dry channel. J. Hydraul.
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Sidek, L. Y. and Ros, F. C. 2011. Hydrodynamic Dam Breach Modelling of Earth fill Saddle
Dam. Energy Environ. 3(1): 28-32.
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Von Thun, J. L. and Gillette, D. R. 1990. Guidance on Breach Parameters, internal
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Page 12
Optimal variable selection for downscaling of satellite precipitation dataset

using ensemble machine learning algorithms-A case study of Marathwada
region of Maharashtra
Kesarwani, M.1, Neeti N.2, Chaudhuri R.R.,3, Chowdary,

V.M.4
1
PhD Scholar, Department of Natural and Applied Sciences, TERI School of Advanced
Studies, New Delhi - 110070, INDIA; Email: mohit.kesarwani@terisas.ac.in
2
Dr., Associate Professor, Center for climate change and sustainability, Azim Premji
University, Bangalore - 562125, INDIA; Email: neeti@apu.edu.in
3
Dr., Assistant Professor, Department of Regional Water Studies, TERI School of Advanced
Studies, New Delhi - 110070, INDIA; Email: ranjana.chaudhuri@terisas.ac.in
4
Dr., Scientist ‘SG’, National Remote Sensing Center, Hyderabad, 500037 INDIA; Email:
chowdary_isro@yahoo.com
Abstract
Spatio-temporal pattern of drought can be captured using remote sensing precipitation data.
However, commonly used satellite precipitation data is available at much coarser resolution
which makes them unsuitable for local scale drought monitoring. Therefore, spatial
downscaling is an important step for spatio-temporal monitoring of drought condition at local
scale. This study attempts to identify variables i.e., biophysical, elevation, latitude and
longitude that are important to downscale available precipitation data in Marathwada region of
Maharashtra: a semi-arid region. The current study involves spatial downscaling of Integrated
Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG-GPM) dataset using two
ensemble approaches i.e., Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. The auxiliary variable selected
for the study include three bio-physical i.e., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI),
Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) and three static variables i.e.,
elevation and geolocation (latitude and longitude). The result shows that RF algorithm
outperformed XGBoost with temperature, geolocations (latitude and longitude), and elevation
as the important variables in explaining variability in precipitation. The vegetation
characteristics did not play much role in precipitation downscaling in the study area. The result
from this study could be extended to other semi-arid regions and could be useful for policy
makers and local authorities to prepare site-specific drought management strategies.
Keywords: Precipitation downscaling, Machine Learning algorithms, Drought Monitoring,

Random Forest, XGBoost
1. Introduction
Precipitation plays key role in hydrological and ecological process and is one of the key
components of hydrological cycle. The drought condition arises due to below normal
precipitation in the region (Nagarajan, 2010). The low precipitation causes storage i.e., surface
and sub-surface to dry up resulting in loss in crop production. The satellite derived precipitation
data has been widely used in drought monitoring studies with large number of satellite derived
Page 1
precipitation products available in open-source domain with varying spatial and temporal
resolution and different time-period coverage. The spatial resolution of these datasets varies
from 0.05° of Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) to 1°
of Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Although these datasets have been widely
used, they fail to capture the local variability of drought i.e., at village or block level due to
coarse spatial resolution.
Spatial downscaling is one method that can help in bringing the coarse resolution satellite data
to fine spatial resolution making them suitable for local scale drought monitoring. The
orographic and various environmental aspects affect the precipitation in the region (Onema et
al., 2009). Different studies have used these orographic and environmental variables such as
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), elevation,
geolocation (latitude and longitude) for downscaling (e.g., Sharifi et al., 2019; Neeti et al.,
2021). However, there are limited studies quantifying the importance of these predictor
variables in describing variability in precipitation which can then in turn be useful for spatial
downscaling of precipitation. In addition, appropriate method for downscaling also plays an
important role in determining the accuracy of downscaling. There are various methods such as
Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and
Machine Learning (ML) methods that has been used for downscaling (e.g., Chen et al., 2019;
Sharifi et al., 2019; Neeti et al., 2021). Out of these methods, ML methods have shown to
produce more accurate downscaled product. due to their ability to handle high dimension data
and to capture the non-linearity in the data (Ghimire et al., 2012). Among the various ML
techniques available, the ensemble techniques seem to outperform the base classifiers.
The current study therefore aims at selecting appropriate auxiliary variables and ensemble
method out of RF and XGBoost for downscaling precipitation data. The IMERG-GPM data
available at 11km has been used and NDVI, LST, Leaf Area Index (LAI), elevation and
geolocation (latitude and longitude) has been selected as auxiliary variables. The objectives of
the study are as follows: 1) Identification of appropriate auxiliary variables and ensemble
method for downscaling.
2.1 Methodology
The current study uses bio-physical (NDVI, LAI and LST), elevation and geolocation (latitude
and longitude) as the auxiliary variables for downscaling of IMERG-GPM data. The two
ensemble approach i.e., RF and XGBoost have been compared for downscaling of IMERG-
GPM data to 1 km spatial resolution for drought monitoring. The variable importance of the
auxiliary variables has been studied and most important variable for downscaling has been
identified.
Page 2

2.2.1 Marathwada region: Maharashtra
The study is carried out in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra state of India. The study
area lies between 17°38’ and 20°40’ N latitude and 74°35’ and 78°22’ E longitude with mean
precipitation of 882 mm. The region covers approximately 64,590 sq. km. of area covering
approximately 20% of the total geographical area of the state. The Marathwada region consists
of eight districts namely Osmanabad, Jalna, Parbhani, Naded, Aurangabad, Beed, Hingoli, and
Latur. The drought events have significant impact on the livelihood of the farmers as more than
75% of the area is utilised for agriculture activity.
Figure 1 Index map of study area
The satellite data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite on
board terra and aqua and Shuttle Radar Tomography Mission (SRTM) has been used in the
current study. The MODIS derived product i.e., NDVI (250m), LAI (500m) and LST (1km)
has been downloaded and pre-processed at their native resolution. The Digital Elevation Model
(DEM) data from SRTM has been downloaded at 30m spatial resolution and mosaiced for the
study area. The IMERG-GPM final run data has been selected as precipitation data to be
downscaled. The IMERG-GPM data captures precipitation at 0.1° spatial resolution with
spatial coverage between 60° N–60° S. The geolocation (latitude and longitude) has been
derived as central latitude and longitude from IMERG-GPM data at 0.1° km spatial resolution.
The NDVI, LAI, LST, and elevation data was aggregated using mean function to spatial
resolution of IMERG-GPM for model creation.
Page 3
2.3 Machine Learning models
The two ensemble approach i.e., RF and XGBoost that has shown to perform better than base
ML algorithms has been selected for downscaling precipitation data. The RF algorithm has
been employed in various downscaling studies and has shown to outperform other base
algorithms and also produce accurate downscaled product (e.g., Ma et al., 2018; Neeti et al.,
2021; Kesarwani et al., 2022). The XGBoost which is another ensemble algorithm developed
by Chen et al. (2016) has gained popularity in recent times and has also shown superior
performance than other base classifiers.
3.1. Comparison of ensemble algorithm
In the current study two ensemble approach i.e., RF and XGBoost have been compared for
their downscaling capability. Table 1 shows the model performance of both RF and XGBoost
for the selected seasons and selected year. The result suggests that for all the seasons and
selected years RF performed better than XGBoost in terms of RMSE, MAE and Pearson
correlation. Performance of XGBoost and RF were found to be quite similar for the monsoon
and post-monsoon months for the normal years (2009) whereas RF performed better for dry
(2001) and wet (2016) years. However, the model based on RF method outperformed for pre-
monsoon month of dry and normal years but were similar for wet year.
Table 1: Model performance of RF and XGBoost for different season and selected years
Season Year Algorithm RMSE MAE Correlation

2001 RF 7.34 9.93 0.89
XGBoost 8.05 11.14 0.86
2009 RF 17.14 25.15 0.88
July
XGBoost 17.62 25.92 0.88
2016 RF 11.58 14.65 0.95
XGBoost 13.50 16.97 0.93
2001 RF 1.48 2.43 0.77
XGBoost 1.53 2.67 0.73
2009 RF 1.25 1.60 0.48
March
XGBoost 1.32 1.75 0.38
2016 RF 0.84 1.14 0.91
XGBoost 0.86 1.19 0.90
2001 RF 1.53 3.42 0.54
XGBoost 1.62 3.39 0.56
2009 RF 6.71 8.85 0.91
November
XGBoost 8.22 10.75 0.87
2016 RF 0.08 0.15 0.89
XGBoost 0.08 0.16 0.86
Page 4
3.2. Identification of important variables
The study uses three bio-physical variables that are varying in time i.e., LST, NDVI and LAI
and three static variables i.e., elevation, and geolocation (latitude and longitude). The model
was prepared using RF algorithm as its performance was found to be better compared to
XGBoost algorithm. The model was prepared for three seasons and three years. The iterative
model was prepared where least important variable was removed after each model creation.
The mean importance score for each season and year was calculated. The result suggests that
one dynamic variable LST and all the static variables had higher importance in explaining
variability in precipitation compared to other dynamic variables. The NDVI showed
importance (>0.10) for the Monsoon month of dry years and pre-monsoon month of normal
years. The LAI showed importance only for post-monsoon month of dry years and for rest of
the year and month the LAI showed very low (<0.10) importance. The NDVI and LAI did not
showed importance in precipitation downscaling indicating that vegetation has less impact on
the precipitation in the study area. The LST data showed higher importance as LST results in
higher or lower evapotranspiration resulting in regulation of precipitation in the area.
0.90
0.80
Variable Importance
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2001 2009 2016 2001 2009 2016 2001 2009 2016
July March Novemeber
NDVI LST LAI Longitude Latittude elevation
Figure 1: Mean variable importance for all the variable using RF algorithm
4. Conclusions
The study aims at identifying important variables and most suitable ensemble algorithm for
spatial downscaling precipitation data. The three biophysical variables i.e., NDVI, LST and
LAI and three static variables i.e., elevation and geolocation (latitude and longitude) has been
selected for downscaling. The analysis has been carried out in the drought-prone Marathwada
region of Maharashtra. The result suggests that out of the two ensemble methods RF performed
better than XGBoost algorithm. The RF method outperformed XGBoost method in terms of
RMSE, MAE and Pearson’s correlation for all the seasons and years except for monsoon and
post monsoon month of normal year where XGBoost showed similar performance. Out of the
Page 5
six variables selected for downscaling the dynamic variable i.e., LST and all three static
variables i.e., elevation, latitude and longitude showed higher importance in downscaling. The
variables representing vegetation dynamics i.e., NDVI and LAI did not explain much
variability in precipitation and therefore had lower importance in spatial downscaling.
References
Chen, Z., Jiang, F., Cheng, Y., Gu, X., Liu, W., & Peng, J. (2018, January). XGBoost classifier
for DDoS attack detection and analysis in SDN-based cloud. In 2018 IEEE international
conference on big data and smart computing (bigcomp) (pp. 251-256). IEEE.
Chen, S., Zhang, L., She, D., & Chen, J. (2019). Spatial downscaling of tropical rainfall
measuring mission (TRMM) annual and monthly precipitation data over the middle and lower
reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China. Water, 11(3), 568.
Ghimire, B., Rogan, J., Galiano, V. R., Panday, P., & Neeti, N. (2012). An evaluation of
bagging, boosting, and random forests for land-cover classification in Cape Cod,
Massachusetts, USA. GIScience & Remote Sensing, 49(5), 623-643.
Mohit, K., Akash, G., Neeti, N., Maity, S., Mukesh, K., Chowdary, V. M., ... & Kumar, R.
(2022). Machine learning-based meta-classifier for Kharif Bajra (pearl millet) discrimination
in the mixed cropping environment using multi-temporal SAR data. Geocarto International,
1-16.
Ma, Z., He, K., Tan, X., Xu, J., Fang, W., He, Y. and Hong, Y., 2018. Comparisons of spatially
downscaling TMPA and IMERG over the Tibetan Plateau. Remote Sensing, 10(12), p.1883.
Neeti, N., Murali, C.A., Chowdary, V.M., Rao, N.H. and Kesarwani, M., 2021. Integrated
meteorological drought monitoring framework using multi-sensor and multi-temporal earth
observation datasets and machine learning algorithms: A case study of central India. Journal
of Hydrology, 601, p.126638.
Nagarajan, R. (2010). Drought assessment. Springer Science & Business Media.
Onema, J. M. K., & Taigbenu, A. (2009). NDVI–rainfall relationship in the Semliki watershed
of the equatorial Nile. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 34(13-16), 711-721.
Sharifi, E., Saghafian, B., & Steinacker, R. (2019). Downscaling satellite precipitation
estimates with multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks, and spline interpolation
techniques. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(2), 789-805.
Page 6
Dam Site Suitability using Remote sensing and GIS techniques

Harishankar1, Sanat Nalini Sahoo2
1
M.tech Scholar, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, India – 769008;
Email: mharishankar2115@gmail.com
2
Rourkela, India – 769008; Email: sahoosanat@nitrkl.ac.in
Abstract
Increasing the amount of surface water is the efficient way to tackle the water crisis which
directly and indirectly supports the water requirement for humans and increasing the
groundwater table in the surrounding area respectively. Rainfall is one of the major source of
surface water in most of the areas on land. Huge amount of rainwater is carried by rivers which
mixes into ocean at the end which is of no use for human society. Dams are the suitable
structures to store this runoff water and make it available for public demand during water
scarcity. Development of Remote sensing and GIS paves a way for determining the location of
reservoir where trillions of cubic metre of water can be stored at a lesser cross sectional area.
Many environmental and socioeconomic factors were studied in previous studies such as
geology, lineament, soil type, slope and population. In addition to these factors, ground water
potential (GWP) areas, an indirect parameter is also considered to divert the stored surface
water from the dam to those GWP zones in the view of directly replenishing the groundwater
levels. Implementing these factors in decision making techniques like traditional AHP will
provide the information of dam site suitability across a river.
Keywords: Surface water storage, Remote sensing, AHP, Groundwater recharge
1. Introduction
Change of climate especially increase of temperature is emerging as a major issue since the
everyday activities and processes on the earth is dependent on it. The water exists in three
phases and for which the temperature is the major dependent parameter for each phase. As a
generalised view all over the world, the demand for water has been increased to balance both
environmental and socio-economic factors. A mass storage of water can be done on surface
with the use of a dam, and a dam requires its own criteria such as location volume of water to
be stored and the purpose. So, for the selection of a proper site for the construction of dam
which will be more efficiently used to store and utilise the water flowing through the river of
that particular basin eight factors were considered in this study. One of the MCDM techniques
called AHP is used in the GIS environment to predict certain position for placement of Dam.
Since as there were many studies have been carried out using the multi criteria decision making
techniques and the accuracy of the method were also presented in previous studies and
accuracies were good.
ArcGIS software was used to process and create the maps of all the factors affecting site
suitability and the MCDM technique was used from the catalog tools in the same environment.
GIS has the capability of analyzing the special variations of a parameter in detail with high
Page 1
level of accuracy. With the integration of multi criteria decision making and GIS analysis will
be much more accurate and time saving. This has been proven in previous studies in many
other areas of interest. AHP was first developed by saaty where the weight age of the
parameters is given using a scale from 1 to 5. In which one representing lower suitability and
five representing the highest suitability. There is another scale in which numbering is from 1
to 9 where the 1 represents equal importance three represents moderate importance five
represents strong importance seven represents very strong importance nine represents extreme
importance and all other intermediate even numbers represent the intermediate importance. In
this study 1 to 5 saaty scale has been selected for the site suitability of dam. The comparison
of the input parameters was completely acquired from the knowledge kind from the previous
studies done in the same topic.
In Palar basin, the North Western and the Western parts of the basin reviews lower rainfall
compared to the eastern and south-eastern parts. In the year 2021 after a long period a huge
amount of rainfall has been recorded all over Tamil Nadu and especially in this part of the area
the discharge of River was overflowing and it flooded the nearby villages which took a human
life to a risk. And the entire water which was the surface runoff was completely wasted into
the Bay of Bengal. Hence it is an overall demand from the villages of the basin so that the water
can be saved and used in future for both drinking and agriculture purposes.
2.1 MCDM Techniques
2.1.1 AHP
Analytical hierarchical process is an MCDM technique which is employed to determine the

extent of importance of a factor among other parameters. Since AHP is a decision-making
technique, this can be used for the selection of a suitable site for the Dam placement. In the
study for a Dam to be sustained for longer period the geology is the major parameter of
consideration. Suppose if we consider in Geology and distance from roads geology will be
given higher weightage. Similarly, all other parameters will have different weightages and
finally we determine the percentage of weightage given to each parameter and this percentage
distribution is fed into the GIS environment so that a proper site for a dam can be done. The
weightage is calculated in an excel spreadsheet.
1
𝜇(𝑥) =
𝑥 −𝑓1
1+( )
𝑓2
The inputs to the equation are f1, the spread, and f2, the midpoint.
Page 2
2.2.1 Palar River basin
The Palar River Basin is one of Tamilnadu's major river basins. The major Palar River rises in
Nandhi Durg, Kolar district, 800 metres above mean sea level, in the eastern portion of
Karnataka State. It then flows through Kolar and Bangarupet Taluks, forming the enormous
Bethamangal tank, which serves as the primary water supply for Kolar Gold Field and Bharath
Earth Movers Limited. It leaves Karnataka and runs across Andhra Pradesh for a short distance
in Kuppam Taluk in Chitoor District before entering Vellore District of Tamil Nadu and
flowing into the Bay of Bengal, east of Maduranthagam and south of Mahabalipuram. The
Palar River Basin spans a total of 17,633.19 sq km, including 3,123 sq km in Karnataka state,
4,267 sq km in Andhra Pradesh, and 10273.19 sq km in Tamil Nadu.
In Tamil Nadu, the basin includes the districts of Vellore, Thiruvannamalai, Kancheepuram,
Thiruvallur, Villupuram, and Krishnagiri. Poineyar, Kaudinya Nadhi, Malattar, Cheyyar,
Agamar, Kamandalar, Naganadhiar, Killiyar, and Vegavathiar are the significant tributaries.
The Eastern Ghats hill ranges, the plateau region, and the coastal plains make up the three main
topographical divisions of this basin. A plain undulating topography is traced after rolling from
the higher relief of hill ranges (305 to 91 m). It is constrained by numerous low relief zones
that can range in height from 76 to 91 metres. There were several spring channels in the river's
bed when the water table was close to the river's bed level. These spring channels dry out for a
significant portion of the year, and the deep, sandy river bed becomes the primary source of
groundwater for farmers and drinking water delivery schemes. The remaining 1383 sq.km is
mostly covered by sedimentary formations such upper Gondwana, alluvium, and coastal
deposits. Of the total area extent, 10273.19 sq.km are occupied by Archaean crystalline
formations like Gneisses and Charnockites.
The Basin shapefile for palar was obtained from the HydroSHEDS website
(https://www.hydrosheds.org/). The daily rainfall data from 2011 to 2021 were collected from
India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. The geology (1:2M scale) and lineament data
were downloaded from Geological Survey of India (https://bhuvan-
app3.nrsc.gov.in/data/download/index.php). The world soil type data was extracted from FAO
and it was processed to extract for the study area. The land use land cover data was extracted
from Sentinel-2 10-Meter Resolution Land Use/Land Cover from ESRI website as tiles
(https://livingatlas.arcgis.com/landcover/). The tiles were merged and extracted for the area of
interest. Digital elevation model (DEM) SRTM was extracted from USGS earth Explorer
(https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/).
Page 3
2.3 Selection of Input Parameters
As we know that dam is a heavy structure which holds a huge volume of water, the factors
affecting the suitability study should be properly selected. The input parameters were selected
based on the previous studies conducted on site suitability. From fig 2 to fig 9, the thematic
maps are presented which was created using tools of ArcGIS. The mean annual rainfall
intensity varies from 522 to 1661mm in-between the years 2011 to 2021.
Page 4
Figure 2 Geology of study area
Figure 3 LULC of study area
Figure 4 Soil map of study area
Page 5
Figure 5 Drainage Density map of study area
Figure 6 Lineament density map of study area
Figure 7 Rainfall map of study area
Page 6
Figure 8 Road map of study area
Figure 9 Slope map of study area
Variables Weightage
Geology 31.5
Rainfall 14.1
Slope 11.5
Drainage
13.2
Density
LULC 6.2
Lineament 8.3
Soil 12.7
Page 7
Distance
from 2.6
roads
Table 1 Weightage for factors in AHP
The AHP technique gives three suitabilities through the stretch of the river which is low,
medium and high. Most of the northwestern part of the basin comes under low to medium
suitability. The central portion of the river reach is highly suitable for dam construction. And
the locations where the suitability is higher is not been given as a separate point or separate
locations clearly so the suitable locations are divided into three parts which is shown as
numbering in the figure the first polygon represents the higher suitability which shows that the
location of dam is suitable in that stretch. Since the AHP is not showing the results at specific
locations additional factors are required or on site survey is required to increase the accuracy
and get better results.
The majority of the Palar River basin region was made up of zones with moderate and poor
ground water potential. Along the river's course, the good ground water potential zones are
located. The northwestern region of the basin, comprising Vaniyambadi, Ambur, Gudiyatham,
Vellore, and the neighbouring territories, has poor ground water potential zones. The areas
around Arani, Arcot, Gudiyatham, Polur, and Kancheepuram are among those with moderate
ground water potential zones in the basin's centre and northeastern regions. Alluvial flood
plains along the river, as well as the lands near Cheyyar, Uthiramerur, Maduranthagam, and
Chengam, are regarded as good prospective zones (The Groundwater potential was referred
from Palar report from Govt of Tamilnadu). The Dam location can be considered nearby these
areas in the upstream side so that the stored water in the dam can be recharged into ground to
increase the level of groundwater and can be used during the summer or in extreme drought
seasons. The reason of constructing the dams nearby the groundwater potential zones is to
reduce the cost of construction of canals from Dam to the recharge zones and also to reduce
the conveyance charges.
Page 8
Figure 9 Suitable Dam sites using AHP Method
4. Conclusions
Palar basin is the study area in south India was considered which lacks water storage structures.
Eight factors were considered to determine the locations of dam site. AHP, an MCDM
technique was chosen. As we can observe from the fig.9 that AHP technique gives result as
Low, medium and high suitability over the stretch of the river. Specific point or location is not
being shown. Central and south eastern parts of the basin show higher proportion of medium
to high suitability. Slope map also confirms the same. Further onsite surveying is also required
to get the detailed overview of the present situation of the sites before finalizing the dam
location.
References
Vema, V., Sudheer, K. P., & Chaubey, I. (2019). Fuzzy inference system for site suitability evaluation
of water harvesting structures in rainfed regions. Agricultural Water Management, 218, 82-93.
Ahmad, I., & Verma, M. K. (2018). Application of analytic hierarchy process in water resources
planning: a GIS based approach in the identification of suitable site for water storage. Water
Resources Management, 32(15), 5093-5114.
Jamali, A. A., Randhir, T. O., & Nosrati, J. (2018). Site suitability analysis for subsurface dams using
Boolean and fuzzy logic in arid watersheds. Journal of Water Resources Planning and
Management, 144(8), 04018047.
Noori, A. M., Pradhan, B., & Ajaj, Q. M. (2019). Dam site suitability assessment at the Greater Zab
Page 9
River in northern Iraq using remote sensing data and GIS. Journal of Hydrology, 574, 964-979.
Ezzeldin, M., Konstantinovich, S. E., & Igorevich, G. I. (2022). Determining the suitability of rainwater
harvesting for the achievement of sustainable development goals in Wadi Watir, Egypt using GIS
techniques. Journal of Environmental Management, 313, 114990.
Yi, C. S., Lee, J. H., & Shim, M. P. (2010). Site location analysis for small hydropower using geo-
spatial information system. Renewable Energy, 35(4), 852-861.
Ajibade, T. F., Nwogwu, N. A., Ajibade, F. O., Adelodun, B., Idowu, T. E., Ojo, A. O., ... &
Akinmusere, O. K. (2020). Potential dam sites selection using integrated techniques of remote
sensing and GIS in Imo State, Southeastern, Nigeria. Sustainable Water Resources
Management, 6(4), 1-16.
Graham, H. A., Puttock, A., Macfarlane, W. W., Wheaton, J. M., Gilbert, J. T., Campbell-Palmer, R.,
... & Brazier, R. E. (2020). Modelling Eurasian beaver foraging habitat and dam suitability, for
predicting the location and number of dams throughout catchments in Great Britain. European
Journal of Wildlife Research, 66(3), 1-18.
Jamali, A. A., & Ghorbani Kalkhajeh, R. (2020). Spatial modeling considering valley’s shape and rural
satisfaction in check dams site selection and water harvesting in the watershed. Water Resources
Management, 34(10), 3331-3344.
Alem, F., Abebe, B. A., Degu, A. M., Goitom, H., & Grum, B. (2022). Assessment of water harvesting
potential sites using GIS-based MCA and a hydrological model: case of Werie catchment,
northern Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8(3), 1-19.
Darabi, H., Moradi, E., Davudirad, A. A., Ehteram, M., Cerda, A., & Haghighi, A. T. (2021). Efficient
rainwater harvesting planning using socio-environmental variables and data-driven geospatial
techniques. Journal of Cleaner Production, 311, 127706.
Kumar, M. G., Agarwal, A. K., & Bali, R. (2008). Delineation of potential sites for water harvesting
structures using remote sensing and GIS. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 36(4),
323-334.
Ramakrishnan, D., Bandyopadhyay, A., & Kusuma, K. N. (2009). SCS-CN and GIS-based approach
for identifying potential water harvesting sites in the Kali Watershed, Mahi River Basin,
India. Journal of earth system science, 118, 355-368.
Makedon, T., Chatzigogos, N., Vogiatzis, D., Dimopoulos, G., & Karamouzis, D. (2009). The effect of
geology on the suitability of the Olynthios river dam site, Northern Greece. Bulletin of
engineering geology and the environment, 68(3), 355-361.
Hagos, Y. G., Andualem, T. G., Mengie, M. A., Ayele, W. T., & Malede, D. A. (2022). Suitable dam
site identification using GIS-based MCDA: a case study of Chemoga watershed,
Ethiopia. Applied Water Science, 12(4), 1-26.
Page 10
Analysis of reservoir sedimentation using satellite images
Mishra K1, Tiwari HL2 and Tiwari N3

1
P.G. Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology Bhopal, India – 462003; Email: mishra1999kartikeya@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology Bhopal, India –462003; Email: hltiwari@rediffmail.com
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology Bhopal, India – 462003; E-mail: ntmp007@rediffmail.com
Abstract
Sedimentation is the most un-preferable phenomenon for reservoirs. It originates due to soil
erosion through heavy precipitation & winds. Eroded soil particles move and are eventually
deposited in reservoirs via streams or channels. It affects the life of the reservoir as well as the
capacity utilized to hold water in it. For the beneficial utilization of reservoirs, it is must to
know about the amount of deposited sediments. The conventional techniques of capacity
estimation like hydrographic surveys, stream-flow analysis & bathymetric methods were time-
consuming, laborious & also demands a lot of manpower. In this study, a remote sensing
method is applied in addition to the GIS to assess the loss in storage volume of Kaliasote
reservoir located in Bhopal, capital of Madhya Pradesh state in India. Normalized difference
Water Index (NDWI) has been applied on satellite images to clearly represent the water pixels.
From the obtained results, it was clear that 4.106 Mm3 or 11.93 % of storage volume had been
lost from the usable storage volume of the Kaliasote reservoir. The rate of sedimentation in the
reservoir was also correlated with Varshney’s and Joglekar’s empirical relations.
Keywords: Sedimentation, reservoir capacity, remote sensing, NDWI, satellite images.
1. Introduction
Transportation of sediment particles was dependent on the topographical feature of land &
morphological parameter of streams (Singh et al. 2021). Deposition of sediments in the
reservoir is not an easy process, it is deposited in reservoirs because of a lowering in the
velocity of water as a result of rapid enlargement in the cross-sectional area of rivers (Pandey
et al. 2016). The increment in the volume of deposited sediments is directly proportional to the
decrement in the irrigation capacity of reservoirs (Shatnawi 2012). This sedimentation issue,
which is gradually reducing the reservoir's utility, requires attention not only during the project
planning stage but also during the operating stage (Shatnawi & Diabat 2016). The entering
sediment was collected in various zones of the reservoir depending on the form of the reservoir,
the manner of reservoir utilization, silt inflow rates, and particle size distribution (Jain et al.
2010). Initially, the coarser portion of sediments settled in the upper zone of the reservoir due
Page 1
to a reduction in flow velocity. After that finer portions of sediments get deposited in various
elevations of the reservoir (Jain et al. 2002; Khadatare & Jedhe 2017). Sedimentation was
expected to cause a loss of about 1% of the world's existing storage volume each year (Merina
et al. 2016; Wagh & Manekar 2021). The quantity of sediment with its pattern of deposition at
different levels of the reservoir is critical for determining the reservoir's equilibrium life
(Narasayya et al. 2013). The worldwide rate of sediments production is nearly 2 x 1010 tonnes
per year (Goel et al. 2002).
The assessment of sediment volume by hydrographic surveys and streamflow analysis are the
two most popular traditional ways. These traditional approaches are tedious, laborious & time-
consuming (Durbude & Purandara 2005; Mani & Chakravorty 2007; Jeyakanthan & Sanjeevi
2011; Singh et al. 2021). By the use of broad & multifunctional technologies of remote sensing,
determining the reservoir sedimentation has shown to be both cost-effective and convenient
(Avinash & Chandramouli 2018). It has also a limitation that this approach is best suitable for
live storage zone (Mandwar et al. 2014). The remote sensing approach is said to be better
than traditional data collecting methods because they provide data over a longer interval of
time with a wider spectral range (Dadoria et al. 2017). Going through the literature review it
was found that no study had been conducted to date for estimation of sedimentation in Kaliasote
reservoir located in Bhopal.
2.1 Satellite Remote Sensing technique
The reservoir spread region in correspondence of the satellite pass date at known elevation was
the general output produced from the remote sensing investigation. The periphery of the water
region was demarcated using visual and digital tools used for remote sensing data
interpretation. The interpretation of visual approaches is entirely dependent on the expertise
and competence of the interpreter. It was tedious to clearly distinguish between wetland and
water regions about the circumference of the water spread region. Water pixels might easily be
misinterpreted as land and vice versa, but various bands of related satellite pictures have been
thoroughly evaluated using digital techniques. A GIS software, ArcMap was used for digital
processing in this project. The methodology taken in this study is shown in Figure 1.
2.1.1 Downloading, importing, and stacking of satellite bands
The remote sensing data were collected from the USGS website (in .gz format). After that, all
the bands of satellite images were imported into ArcMap software, and then BAND 3 and
BAND 5 were stacked together. The BAND 3 and BAND 5 were known as the Green & NIR
bands respectively. This process was completed one by one for each satellite image of
respective dates shown in Table 1.
2.1.2 Extraction of water pixels
The water transmittance is quite well in the visible band (400-700 nm), although its absorption
Page 2
and reflectance are very moderate. Water absorption rises rapidly in the NIR region, where
both reflectivity and transmissivity are low. At NIR wavelengths, the water looked like a black
mass. The number of water pixels must be determined in order to extract surface water bodies.
Though water has a unique spectral signature from other land uses such as vegetation, built-up
areas, and soil surface, identifying water pixels at the water/soil interface is difficult and
dependent on the analyst's interpretative abilities.
Table 1 Satellite passing date and other information

Satellite Path Row Date of passing Water levels
LANDSAT 145 44 06 December 499.65
8 OLI 2017
LANDSAT 146 44 27 December 497.50
8 OLI 2017
LANDSAT 146 44 08 March 2018 493.45
8 OLI
LANDSAT 145 44 28 November 495.40
8 OLI 2018
LANDSAT 145 44 08 June 2019 489.00
8 OLI
LANDSAT 145 44 14 October 505.67
8 OLI 2019
Bold values indicate the minimum and maximum water level respectively
Mcfeeters (1996) generated an algorithm termed as Normalized Difference Water Index

(NDWI) after studying the spectral characteristics (reflectance) of water pixels. The NDWI is
a method for clearly identifying water pixels by comparing the digital number (DN) value of a
pixel to data from various bands. The NDWI Index is defined as follows:
𝑁𝐷𝑊𝐼 = ((𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 – 𝑁𝐼𝑅))/ (𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 + 𝑁𝐼𝑅) (1)
In our case, this formula may be written as:

𝑁𝐷𝑊𝐼 = (𝐵𝐴𝑁𝐷3 – 𝐵𝐴𝑁𝐷5) / (𝐵𝐴𝑁𝐷3 + 𝐵𝐴𝑁𝐷5) (2)
For NDWI > 0, pixels were treated as water and for NDWI < 0, pixels were treated as non-
water. The NDWI picture was created for each satellite image with water pixels having positive
values & other than water pixels having negative values.
The deep water bodies had a very clear and distinct representation when compared to shallow
water bodies while, water at shallow depths should be carefully investigated to ensure that
pixels were not misguided, particularly at the interface of soil & water. As a result, several
bands were evaluated on the basis of digital numbers in order to clearly distinguish pixels along
the water-soil boundary. The use of two or more bands in a single association resulted in a clear
representation of the water surface based on reflectance and absorption behaviour. On each
geographical grid, these raster pictures were represented by digital number values, so
combining numerous bands for higher digital number values aided in the delineation of water
bodies.
Page 3
2.1.3 Separation of the desired area
The full scene of the satellite was very large, it contains more than two water bodies and
vegetation area. This study was concerned with only the Kaliasote reservoir. Hence, it was
necessary to remove other water bodies. After applying the NDWI approach to each satellite
scene, images were converted into water and non-water regions by utilizing the
“RECLASSIFY” technique from the spatial analyst tool, and then “EXTRACT BY MASK”
function was applied to separate the desired area of the reservoir through spatial analyst tool
on ArcGIS. The finalized reservoir spread regions of minimum observed level and maximum
observed level are represented in Figure 3 for the considered satellite images. For masking
purposes, the shapefile from Google earth pro was created. At the last, number of water pixels
was recorded for all satellite images as per Table 2.
Table 2 Number of water pixels in satellite images corresponding to elevations

Passing date of satellite Elevation (m) No. of water pixels
08 June 2019 489.00 457
08 March 2018 493.45 1444
28 November 2018 495.40 1571
27 December 2017 497.50 2249
06 December 2017 499.65 2344
14 October 2019 505.67 3405
2.1.4 Calculation of revised water region area
When the number of water pixels for all satellite images was obtained, the water region area
was calculated using the given formula-
Area of water region = Number of water pixels × Pixel area
106
Here, pixel area is defined as the resolution of the utilized LANSAT 8 OLI sensor which is
equal to 30 m ×30 m, and the calculated area is termed as the revised water region area.
2.1.5 Estimation of the revised reservoir capacity
The reservoir capacity between two consecutive levels was estimated by the Trapezoidal
formula (Katiyar et al. 2006; Foteh et al. 2018) as given below:
V = H × [A1 + A2 + √(A1 × A2)] / 3 (3)
Page 4
Data collection
Field data
Satellite data
Reservoir Design
elevation capacity
Downloading, importing and
stacking of bands in GIS
software
Computation of actual elevation
and capacity of reservoir
NDWI
corresponding to satellite images
Separation of area of interest
Representation of finalized Integration

water region
Calculation of revised capacity

Estimation of water spread
by Prismoidal formula
Comparison of cumulative
original live storage capacity with
cumulative revised live storage
capacity
Sediment
volume
Figure 1 Adopted methodology
Page 5
Here, H is the height of elevation between two consecutive water levels E1 & E2, A1 & A2 are
the areas of water region at levels E1 & E2 and V is defined as the estimated volume of the
reservoir. The calculation for the revised storage capacity of the Kaliasote dam is given in
Table 3.
Table 3 Calculation of revised reservoir capacity and comparison with original capacity of
reservoir
Water levels Revised Area Revised live storage Cumulative Revised live
(m) (Mm2) capacity (Mm3) storage capacity (Mm3)
486.16 0.052 - 0
489.00 0.411 0.576 0.576
493.45 1.299 3.603 4.179
495.40 1.413 2.631 6.811
497.50 2.024 3.582 10.390
499.65 2.109 4.438 14.830
505.67 3.064 15.47 30.304
The original elevation-capacity table at the time of designing the dam was received from the
Divisional office of Kaliasote dam, Bhopal, the government of Madhya Pradesh. The designed
capacity at the intermediate water levels was estimated from the original elevation-capacity
table by the application of linear interpolation. The comparison between revised capacity and
original capacity at the corresponding water level had been done and the difference between
these two capacities resulted in a loss in storage due to sedimentation as shown in Table 5. At
the lowest sill level (486.16 m), cumulative revised capacity was taken as zero. Above this
level, the consecutive volumes were summed together up to the full reservoir level to obtain
the final cumulative revised reservoir capacity.
2.2.1 Kaliasote River basin
The Kaliasote reservoir is situated at Bhopal, which is the capital of Madhya Pradesh state,
India (as shown in Figure 2). The Lat. & Long. of this dam location were 23°11'51" N &
77°24'30" E respectively. The reservoir was constructed near Pt. Khusilal Sharma Govt.
Ayurveda College in Bhopal district, the Madhya Pradesh state of India, on the river Kaliasote
Page 6
of the Betwa basin. The drainage area of the reservoir is 381.38 km2. The designed gross
storage capacity of the reservoir at full reservoir level (FRL) 505.67 m is 35.387 Mm3, and the
live storage capacity between FRL and lowest sill level (LSL) 486.16 m is 34.41 Mm 3. The
initial dead storage capacity is 0.977 Mm3. The reservoir was first impounded in the year 1988.
This is a major multi-purpose project that has been proposed for irrigation, flood control, and
water supply to the Bhopal district.
Figure 2 Image of Kaliasote reservoir

Source BHUVAN (https://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in)
This project is also linked with Upper lake, Bhopal. The dam of Kailasote reservoir is Eathen
(Homogeneous) type dam. The length of the dam is 1080 m with a top width of 6.10 m. This
dam is designed for the gross commanded area of 4817×104 m2 including a net culturable
command area of 4588×104 m2.
Sedimentation analysis is based on two types of primary data namely the remotely sensed data
and field data. Primarily, the remote sensing data had been downloaded from the USGS website
(https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov). The original area capacity table and salient features of the
Kaliasote reservoir had been collected from the divisional office of the Water Resources
Department, Bhopal as given in Table 4. The water level of reservoirs based on a daily basis
had been downloaded from the MPWRD website (http://www.mpwrd.gov.in).
Page 7
Table 4 Original elevation-capacity table (1988) of the Kaliasote reservoir

Elevation (m) Cumulative capacity (Mm3)
486.16 0.977
489.00 1.966
493.45 4.688
495.40 6.728
497.50 9.900
499.65 14.258
505.67 35.387
In this study, 6 LANDSAT 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) of different dates were utilized
with correspondence of water levels varying from MDDL to FRL as shown in Table 1. The
major advantages of satellite imageries, they were freely available for the public domain along
with a spatial resolution of 30 m & temporal resolution of 16 days, and also cloud independent.
The field data consists of the original area capacity table (given in Table 3), daily water level
fluctuations with maximum and minimum water levels, and salient features of the respective
reservoir.
According to the availability of satellite scenes, six date images were finalized namely 06-12-
2017, 27-12-2017, 08-03-18, 28-11-2018, 08-06-19, & 14-10-19, and elevations on
corresponding days were received from the MPWRD website given in Table 1.
The whole study revealed that the Kaliasote reservoir's revised capacity (2019) in the zone of
live storage zone, levels varying from 486.16 to 505.67 m was 30.304 Mm3, whereas the initial
capacity (1988) was 34.410 Mm3. The gap between the initial capacity and the revised capacity,
4.106 Mm3, was caused by sediment deposition during the past 31 years as calculated in Table
5. In the last 31 years, the reservoir had lost over 11.93 percentage of its useful storage volume.
As a result, the rate of sedimentation in Kaliasote reservoir was determined to be 0.132 Mm3
per year, or 0.385% percentage per year, which lies below the range of 0.5 to 1.5 percentage
per year reported by a survey done in several Indian reservoirs in 2004.
The change in the revised capacity curve with respect to the original capacity curve represents
Page 8
the loss in storage volume due to sedimentation at various elevations in the live storage of the
reservoir. If the sediment deposition is further increasing, it will have an adverse impact on a
reservoir's usable life. Vegetative treatment and structural intervention can help to limit
sediment entering the reservoir. People in nearby communities should be educated on proper
land management methods in order to safeguard the watershed and minimize erosion caused
by intensive irrigated cultivation.
Figure 3 Finalized water spread region of minimum and maximum observed levels for
Kaliasote reservoir
Page 9
Table 5 Estimation of loss in storage volume of Kaliasote reservoir due to sediment deposition
Water Gross storage Live storage Live storage volume as Loss in live
level (m) volume in volume in per this remote sensing storage volume
1988 (Mm3) 1988 (Mm3) survey upto 2019 (Mm3) (Mm3)
I II III IV V = IV-III
FRL
505.67 35.387 34.410 30.304 4.106
It can also be found that the Kailasote reservoir lost 0.132 Mm3 of storage each year, with an
average rate of 0.035 Mm3/100 km2/year. The siltation rate calculated from the remote sensing
method had been correlated with Varshney’s and Joglekar’s empirical relations. The
Varshney’s and Joglekar’s formulas can be given as:
Varshney’s equation:
Y = 0.392/A^0.202 (4)
Khosla’s equation:
Y = 0.323/A^0.28 (5)
Where Y is the yearly silting rate from a watershed of 100 km2 and A is the catchment area in
km2. Because the catchment area of the Kailasote reservoir in Bhopal is 381.38 km2, the rates
of sedimentation calculated using Varshney's formula and Khosla's equation are 0.118
Mm3/100 km2/year and 0.06 Mm3/100 km2/year. It was clear that both Khosla's formula and
Varshney's equation indicate a higher rate of siltation than what was seen in Bhopal’s Kalisote
reservoir. According to the results of this survey, if sedimentation is going on at this rate, it
will definitely deplete the whole storage capacity of the reservoir in the next 230 years. Hence,
it is necessary to take proper measures for preventing the entry of sediments into the reservoir,
and also removal of deposited sediments must be done.
4. Conclusions
The use of remote sensing to estimate revised elevation-area-capacity curves for a reservoir
saves time and money. Though it has certain drawbacks, it is a highly practical method for
analyzing sedimentation in a reservoir's active storage zone. The technique is fully automated,
beginning with the identification of water pixels and ending with the estimation of the water
spread area. Traditional procedures, such as hydrographic surveys, and streamflow analysis,
are time-consuming, tedious, and costly since they require considerable data collection in order
to estimate reservoir capacities and surface area for matching reservoir stages. As a result,
Page 10
hydrographic surveys are being conducted over a longer period of time, ranging from 5 to 15
years, despite the fact that the recommended time interval for reservoir sedimentation
evaluation is every 5 years which can easily be done by remote sensing approach.
(i) The sedimentation in the reservoir's live storage is estimated to be 4.106 Mm3, during a
31-year period (1988-2019).
(ii) In the Kaliasote reservoir, the rate of sedimentation will be 0.132 Mm3 per year, or 0.385
percentage per year, which lies below from the range of 0.5-1.5 percentage per year, with
an average rate of 0.035 Mm3 /100 km2/year.
(iii) Varshney's formula and Khosla's equations yield the rate of siltation as 0.118 and 0.06
Mm3/100km2/year, respectively.
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to Water Resources Department of Madhya Pradesh (MPWRD) and USGS
Explorer for providing the necessary data to conduct the present study.
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Page 12
Assessment of Drought using Meteorological and Remote sensing data

D. Pavan Kumar1, Sanat Nalini Sahoo2
1
M.tech Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology
Rourkela, India – 769008; Email: pavankumardasari0705@gmail.com
2
Rourkela, India – 769008; Email: sahoosanat@nitrkl.ac.in
Abstract
The frequency of droughts has increased in recent years due to global warming, and it is a
complicated natural hazard that is poorly understood. There are four types of droughts:
meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic. Precipitation deficits leads to
meteorological drought. Agricultural drought is a result of several consequences like water
deficits in soil, reduction of evapotranspiration and decreased crop yield. Drought occurrence
cannot be eliminated; however, their consequences can be diminished if decision makers have
access accurate spatio-temporal information about crop status. The objective of the study is to
identify the meteorological and agricultural droughts across Anantapur district of Andhra
Pradesh by using meteorological and remote sensing data. The SPI (Standardized Precipitation
Index) and the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two multiscalar
drought indices that are used to identify Meteorological drought. Agricultural drought is
identified by using IDCI (integrated drought condition index). IDCI was used by integrating
vegetation conditions, temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and potential
evapotranspiration. SPEI, SMCI (Soil Moisture Condition Index) and VCI (Vegetation
Condition Index) are three drought indices that make up IDCI. The IDCI is computed in this
study using Principal component analysis (PCA). The results shows that 2016 and 2018 are
meteorological drought years and 2016,2017 and 2018 are agricultural drought years during
2012-2021in Anantapur district, Andhra Pradesh. The results of the study indicate that drought
can be accurately evaluated by merging various data sources and drought indices, allowing for
the estimation of risk management plans and the signing of new treaties.
Keywords: meteorological drought, SPI, SPEI, agricultural drought, IDCI, PCA.
1. Introduction
Global climate change, which is the most serious threat and the most difficult challenge
confronting humanity, has captured the attention of the governments and public worldwide
(Zhongwei, 1992). Since 1970s, extreme climatic occurrences like drought have become more
frequent and intense. The intensity, duration and frequency of droughts are increasing in a
variety of climatic regions in India. Droughts are a complicated natural hazard. Almost 100
crores of people lack access to drinking water, and around one third of the population in the
world lives in an area with water shortages. Drought (7.5%) is regarded as the geographically
broad hazard with the second-highest global prevalence on earth’s terrestrial area after floods
(11%). From the 1970s to the early 2000s, the percentage of the world affected by severe
drought doubled (Nagarajan 2009). Nearly one-sixth of India's total land area, home to 12% of
Page 1
the population in the country, is prone to drought. Millions of people have died as a result of
drought in India throughout the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries.
The primary cause of India's drought is monsoon failure, which lowers crop yields and has a
negative impact on the country's social and economic conditions. Approximately 68% of India
is at risk of drought to varying degrees. A total of 35% of the region is thought to be drought-
prone (receiving 750 to 1,125 mm of precipitation), while another 33% is thought to be
chronically drought-prone (receiving precipitation below 750 mm). Major drought-prone areas
including northern Karnataka, Rajasthan, southern and eastern Maharashtra, Odisha, Andhra
Pradesh, Gujarat and Telangana are particularly affected.
Drought is a recurring occurrence in India. Drought affects about 107 million hectares of the
nation, or more than 68 percent of India, which is dispersed throughout numerous
administrative districts in various states. One district in Andhra Pradesh (AP) State where
drought conditions have persisted for years is Anantapur. This has put a great deal of strain on
the local economy, particularly the agricultural sector. Drought is complicated, poorly
understood, and has significant effects on both people and the natural world. Droughts have
typically been divided into four categories: meteorological, agricultural, hydrologic, and social-
economic (Mishra and Singh, 2010).
The shortage in precipitation results in Meteorological drought. The result of insufficient soil
moisture throughout the growth period of crops due to a lack of precipitation, high
temperatures, high evapotranspiration, and lack of soil moisture is agricultural drought (Zhao
et al., 2017). Agricultural drought is associated with meteorological and hydrologic
circumstances, as well as vegetation's resistance to water shortage, which have an adverse
effect on agricultural production (Zexi Shen,2019). The major application of drought indices
and indicators is to monitor the conditions of drought, which vary depending on the climate
and region. The standard precipitation index (SPI) was proposed by McKee et al. (1993).
Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010) presented the standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index
(SPEI), which they claimed that the value of SPI has improved by taking interactions between
potential evapotranspiration and precipitation into account.
Drought indices based on remote sensing, such as VCI and NDVI, have the advantage of
describing the spatial pattern. Remote sensing has been shown to be effective for monitoring
agricultural drought and analysing it’s occurrence spatially when combined with a complete
view of the Earth's surface (Gu et al. 2007). Vegetation condition index (VCI), normalised
difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation health index (VHI) and temperature condition
index (TCI) are the remotely sensed drought measures that have been created and implemented
(AghaKouchak et al. 2015; Shefeld and Wood 2012; Kogan 1995). The vegetation condition
index has proven to be the most effective among these indices for tracking drought occurrences
(Ji and Peters 2003; Rhee et al. 2010). Without taking into account meteorological aspects like
precipitation, SMCI is able to define the conditions of drought from the perspective of soil
moisture. However, the delayed effect of soil moisture and agricultural drought on precipitation
changes is large in both space and time. With these ideas in mind, additional elements were
considered in this study, including precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture,
Page 2
and vegetation conditions.
Therefore, by evaluating several drought indices, the current study makes an effort to identify
drought for the Anantapur area. The study area experiences drought frequently due to a lack of
rainfall; the goal was to quickly identify the dry year using meteorological and remote sensing
data. Because of rising population and increased usage of ground water, the levels of ground
water are steadily decreasing. The region's agriculture is entirely dependent on precipitation
because there is no other source of water.
This study combined meteorological, soil moisture, and vegetation conditions to calculate an
integrated drought condition index (IDCI). IDCI is used to monitor the agricultural drought.
The weighted indices for SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), SMCI
(Soil Moisture Condition Index) and VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) are calculated by using
PCA (principal component analysis) in STATA Software.
2.1 Drought Indices
2.1.1 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
McKee et al. proposed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in 1993. The World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) uses this index among others to show how much
precipitation fell over a given time frame. The R-package in R-studio computes SPI. The
spatiotemporal extent and intensity of the meteorological drought event were estimated to be
observed by SPI. The gamma distribution is given as:
1 𝑥
−
𝑔(𝑥) = α 𝑥 α−1 𝑒 β , x > 0
β Γ(α)
where α and β are the parameters of shape and scale, 𝛼 > 0, β >0.
2.1.2 Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
The R-package created by (Beguera et al. 2014) was used to generate the standardized
precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI).
2.1.3 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
On the final NDVI database, the following VCI equation was used:
𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝑖 −𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝑚𝑖𝑛
VCI = 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼
𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝑚𝑖𝑛
where 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝑖 refers to monthly NDVI at location i while 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝑚𝑖𝑛 and 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝑚𝑎𝑥 are the
absolute 10-year (2012–2021) minimum and maximum values of NDVI at location i.
Page 3
2.1.4 Soil moisture condition index (SMCI)
Scaled soil moisture is represented by the soil moisture condition index (SMCI) (Sanchez et
al., 2016):
𝑆𝑀𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑆𝑀𝑖,𝑗,𝑦
SMCI𝑖,𝑗,𝑦 =
𝑆𝑀𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑆𝑀𝑚𝑖𝑛
where SMCI𝑖,𝑗,𝑦 is the reanalysis soil moisture (SM) at pixel i in the jth month of the yth year,
while 𝑆𝑀𝑚𝑎𝑥 and 𝑆𝑀𝑚𝑖𝑛 are 10- year (2012–2021) absolute maximum and minimum values
of SMCI at pixel i.
2.1.5 Integrated drought index (IDCI)
In this study, PCA (Liu et al., 2016) was utilized to construct IDCI by merging VCI for
vegetation condition, SPEI for assessment of relationships between precipitation and potential
evapotranspiration, and SMCI for soil moisture conditions.
IDCI= xi *SMCI +yi *VCI + zi* SPEI
Where x, y and z are the coefficients for SMCI, VCI and SPEI, respectively, at station i.
2.2.1 Anantapur District
The research area is the Rayalaseema Region range's Anantapur District, which is located at
latitudes 14°42′N and 77°36′E in Andhra Pradesh, India. It has a total size of 19,197 km2.
Anantapur district is the seventh most populous district in Andhra Pradesh out of its 13 districts
(Figure 1). This region is underdeveloped economically. The district's average yearly rainfall
is found to be 381 mm. The state administration has classified it as a drought-affected area as
a result of its low and high interannual variability. According to the 2011 census, the population
density increased from 54 people per square kilometer in 1901 to 213 people per square
kilometer. The district's main agricultural products include paddy, jowar, ragi, chili, sugarcane,
onion, and peanut. The two main crops, paddy and groundnut, account for 65,550 and 36,500
gross hectares, respectively.
The average monthly precipitation and temperature are gathered from the IMD, Pune, for the
years 2012 to 2021. The monthly NDVI data for the period of 2012 to 2021 and the monthly
Terra MODIS data with a spatial resolution of 500 m by 500 m were obtained from NASA
LPDAAC COLLECTIONS of USGS Earth Explorer (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). Soil
moisture data from NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA
(https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/), with a spatial resolution of 0.5°× 0.5°, was gathered for the
CPC (Climate Prediction Centre).
Page 4
Figure 1 Study Area Map.
2.3 Data processing
SPI index is calculated by using monthly precipitation. SPEI is computed by using the
precipitation and temperature data. Both indices are calculated by using SPEI package in the
R-studio software. VCI and SMCI are calculated in ARCMAP software by using remote
sensing data (from Modis and NOAA). For IDCI weighted index are calculated by using PCA
(Principal component analysis) in STATA software.
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI):
To assess the drought stress condition, 1-month SPI values were calculated from 2012 to 2021.
As indicated in figures 2 and 3, SPI is taken into account in all months of all years for clear
analysis. SPI can easily identify meteorological drought years and diagnose drought stress
because it is an indicator of both dryness and wetness. Figures 2 and 3 show that the drought
event in the Anantapur district begins with a -3 (negative) and finishes with a +3. (Positive).
Page 5
Due to the fact that we only take into account precipitation values when calculating the SPI
values, we can see that years with more negative value months are classified as meteorological
drought years. Figures 2 and 3 make it clear that the years 2016 and 2018 are years of
meteorological dryness.
Figure2 SPI values from 2012 to 2016
Figure 3 SPI values from 2017 to 2021
Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI):
To monitor the vegetation's drought stress condition, 1-month SPEI values were calculated
from the years 2012 to 2021. Temperature and precipitation data are used to calculate SPEI.
Page 6
SPEI is taken into account in all months of all years as indicated in figures 4 and 5 for clear
analysis. SPEI can quickly identify drought years and drought stress because it is a dryness and
wetness indicator. Figures 4 and 5 show that the drought event in the Anantapur district begins
with a -2 (negative) and finishes with a +2. (Positive). The SPEI values show that years with
more negative value months are considered to be drought years. Figures 4 and 5 make it clear
that the years 2016–2018 are drought years.
Figure 4 SPEI values from 2012 to 2016.
Figure 5 SPEI values from 2017 to 2021.
Page 7
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI):
VCI values are calculated by using the Modis satellite data. Fig 6&7 shows the monthly VCI
values from 2102 to 2021.
Figure 6 VCI values from 2012 to 2016.
Figure 7 VCI values from 2017 to 2021.
Integrated drought index (IDCI):
IDCI is a combined drought index especially used to find the agricultural drought. It is
combination of VCI, SPEI and SMCI. Monthly IDCI values are calculated from 2012 to 2021.
Page 8
Fig 8&9 shows the IDCI values from 2012 to 2021 From Fig.8&9 it was observed that in
Anantapur district drought event starts from -2 and ends with a +2. According to the IDCI
values we observe that the years which have more negative value months treated as agricultural
drought years. From figure 8&9 we can easily observe that 2016 ,2017 and 2018 are
agricultural drought years.
Figure 8 IDCI values from 2012 to 2016.
Figure 9 IDCI values from 2017 to 2021.
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4. Conclusions

(i) We can conclude that 2016 and 2018 are meteorological drought years during 2012 -
2021 in Anantapur district, Andhra Pradesh as per SPI and SPEI indices.
(ii) We can conclude that 2016,2017 and 2018 are agricultural drought years during 2012 -
2021 in Anantapur district, Andhra Pradesh as per SPI, SPEI and IDCI indices.
(iii) Even though 2017 is not a meteorological drought year we get it as agricultural drought
year because in 2017 evapotranspiration is too high which leads to lower SPEI values
that leads to lower IDCI values which leads to agricultural drought.
(iv) In further My study is used to estimate the crop yield by using IDCI values.
References
Agutu, N. O., Awange, J. L., Zerihun, A., Ndehedehe, C. E., Kuhn, M., & Fukuda, Y. (2017). Assessing
multi-satellite remote sensing, reanalysis, and land surface models' products in characterizing
agricultural drought in East Africa. Remote sensing of environment, 194, 287-302.
Alwan, I. A., Ziboon, A. T., Khalaf, A. G., Pham, Q. B., Anh, D. T., & Khedher, K. M. (2022).
Monitoring agricultural and meteorological drought using remote sensing. Arabian Journal of
Geosciences, 15(2), 1-15.
Arun Kumar, K. C., Reddy, G. P. O., Masilamani, P., & Sandeep, P. (2022). Indices-based assessment
of vulnerability to agricultural drought in the tropical semi-arid ecosystem using time-series
satellite and meteorological datasets. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 15(11), 1-18.
Baig, M. H. A., Abid, M., Khan, M. R., Jiao, W., Amin, M., & Adnan, S. (2020). Assessing
meteorological and agricultural drought in Chitral Kabul river basin using multiple drought
indices. Remote Sensing, 12(9), 1417.
Dutta, D., Kundu, A., & Patel, N. R. (2013). Predicting agricultural drought in eastern Rajasthan of
India using NDVI and standardized precipitation index. Geocarto International, 28(3), 192-
209.
Dutta, D., Kundu, A., Patel, N. R., Saha, S. K., & Siddiqui, A. R. (2015). Assessment of agricultural
drought in Rajasthan (India) using remote sensing derived Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space
Science, 18(1), 53-63.
Homdee, T., Pongput, K., & Kanae, S. (2016). A comparative performance analysis of three
standardized climatic drought indices in the Chi River basin, Thailand. Agriculture and Natural
Resources, 50(3), 211-219.
Khosravi, H., Haydari, E., Shekoohizadegan, S., & Zareie, S. (2017). Assessment the effect of drought
on vegetation in desert area using landsat data. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and
Space Science, 20, S3-S12.
Liu, Z., Wang, Y., Shao, M., Jia, X., & Li, X. (2016). Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought
characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology, 534, 281-299.
Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of hydrology, 391(1-2),
202-216.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993, January). The relationship of drought frequency and
duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology (Vol. 17,
No. 22, pp. 179-183).
Page 10
Nagarajan, R. (2009). Drought indices. In Drought assessment (pp. 160-204). Springer, Dordrecht.
Narasimhan, B., & Srinivasan, R. (2005). Development and evaluation of Soil Moisture Deficit Index
(SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought
monitoring. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 133(1-4), 69-88.
Ojha, S. S., Singh, V., & Roshni, T. (2021). Comparison of meteorological drought using SPI and
SPEI. Civil Engineering Journal, 7(12), 2130-2149.
Rhee, J., Im, J., & Carbone, G. J. (2010). Monitoring agricultural drought for arid and humid regions
using multi-sensor remote sensing data. Remote Sensing of environment, 114(12), 2875-2887.
Sharma, A. P. M., Jhajharia, D., Gupta, S., & Yurembam, G. S. (2022). Multiple indices based
agricultural drought assessment in Tripura, northeast India. Arabian Journal of
Geosciences, 15(7), 1-13.
Shen, Z., Zhang, Q., Singh, V. P., Sun, P., Song, C., & Yu, H. (2019). Agricultural drought monitoring
across Inner Mongolia, China: Model development, spatiotemporal patterns and
impacts. Journal of Hydrology, 571, 793-804.
Wolteji, B. N., Bedhadha, S. T., Gebre, S. L., Alemayehu, E., & Gemeda, D. O. (2022). Multiple indices
based agricultural drought assessment in the Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. Environmental
Challenges, 7, 100488.
Zhang, Y., Liu, X., Jiao, W., Zeng, X., Xing, X., Zhang, L., ... & Hong, Y. (2021). Drought monitoring
based on a new combined remote sensing index across the transitional area between humid and
arid regions in China. Atmospheric Research, 264, 105850.
Zhao, H., Gao, G., An, W., Zou, X., Li, H., & Hou, M. (2017). Timescale differences between SC-PDSI
and SPEI for drought monitoring in China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts
a/b/c, 102, 48-58.
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chronology of central China. Climate Dynamics, 6(3), 153-160.
Page 11
December 22 -24, 2022
Measurement of Head Loss in a Fluid Flowing through a Porous Screen

Shravani Mohanty*, Rajendra Kumar
*
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering,
Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan, Deemed to be University,
Bhubaneswar, Odisha-751030, India, Email: shravanimohanty95@gmail.com
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,
Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan, Deemed to be University,
Bhubaneswar, Odisha-751030, India, Email: rajendrakumar@soa.ac.in
Abstract
Flow through porous structures is a common phenomenon in various practical fluid-structure

interactions. Water passing through porous structure is one such case. It is extremely
important to understand this phenomenon to solve complex engineering problems. In general,
the total head loss of the fluid is the sum of the elevation head, velocity head and pressure
head losses. It has been verified through an experimental setup in which energy dissipated
through a porous screen is measured through the head loss. The screen selected for this study
is a perforated screen (acrylic sheet) with circular hole. The discharge is measured with a
rectangular notch attached at the outlet of the flume. The influential factors includes the flow
rate, approaching velocity, pore size, porosity and angle of inclination. A series of
mathematical formulas were used to calculate each of the factors that are used to measure
head loss. It is observed that head loss increases with increase in depth of water.
Keywords: Flume, rectangular notch, head loss, gauge meter.
1. Introduction
A porous medium or a porous material is a material containing pores (voids). The pores are
typically filled with a fluid (liquid or gas). The skeletal material is usually a solid but
structures like foams are often also usefully analyzed using concept of porous screen. A
porous screen is most often characterized by its porosity. The porosity of a material
is decisive when evaluating its durability and resistance to adverse conditions. The porous
screens are commonly used in fluid domain to restrict objects from further advancing. The
characteristics of a porous material vary depending on the size, arrangement and shape of the
pores, as well as the porosity (the ratio of the total pore volume relative to the apparent
volume of the material) and composition of the material itself. The applications include
diverting fish from entering the pump intakes, removing debris from an intake of a cooling
system connected to a power plant and capturing solid wastes in a waste water treatment
plant. The porous structures can also be applied to dissipate wave energy for preventing from
direct wave impact in coastal areas. The distribution of pores and their characteristics defines
the permeability of the material i.e. its ability to store fluids, thus conditioning its physical
and chemical properties.
The volumetric flow of fluid and velocity of the fluid flow through a core are controlled
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December 22 -24, 2022
by pressure, viscosity, wet ability and the pore-size distribution. An important phenomenon
that occurred during the process of fluid flowing through a porous structure is the energy loss
or termed as head loss. Head loss refers to the measurement of the energy dissipated in a fluid
system due to friction along the length of a pipe or hydraulic system and those due to
fittings, valves and other system structures. The head, pressure or energy (they are the same)
lost by water flowing in a pipe or channel as a result of turbulence caused by the velocity of
the flowing water and the roughness of the pipe, channel walls or fittings. The total head loss
of a fluid as it moves through a fluid system is the sum of the elevation head, velocity head
and pressure head losses. Part of the energy losses are caused by the friction of the opening
holes as fluid passing through them and the other part of energy losses are the result of the
turbulence enhanced energy dissipation behind the porous structure. For the design and
application purpose, it is essential to find ways in estimating the total energy losses under
conditions that fluids flow through a porous structure. The head loss for flow passing through
a wedge wire screen was studied experimentally by Yeh and Shrestha (1990). Wang (2004)
conducted a series of extensive tests to measure the head losses for screens used in waste
water treatment plants. The screens tested include bar screens with various bar spacing,
perforated screens of different pore size, stepped screens and others. The head loss
also represents the energy used in overcoming friction caused by the pipe walls and other
technological equipment. Head loss is unavoidable in real moving fluids.
Screen induced head loss can be measured straight forwardly in a setup of an open channel
flow. In this study, experimental measurements were carried out to determine the head losses
for a perforated screen of a pore size placed at 90° angle. The data for the screen head loss
test were collected under various depth conditions. From which discharge and velocity are
calculated for different heights calculated from the tip gauge meter. All data gathered served
as a basis to understand the fundamental properties of porous screens that affect the head loss
and used to eventually estimate the head loss for the screen with a given pore size, porosity
and approaching velocity. In a uniform open-channel flow, for which both kinetic energy and
potential energy are the same at every cross section but potential energy decreases
downstream, the head loss is simply the rate of decrease of elevation head downstream or in
other words the slope of the water surface and bed surface, which is then also equal to the
energy slope.
2. Theoretical Background
The fluid domain is shown in Fig. 1. The fluid is bounded horizontally by the flume floor and
the free surface. The upstream depth is represented by 𝐻1 and 𝐻2 represents the downstream
depth. The screen obstructing the flow is placed at an angle of inclination θ.
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December 22 -24, 2022
FIG. 1. Diagram of the Fluid Domain
The head loss associated with a fluid flowing through a screen can easily be calculated using
the energy equation:
𝑉1 2 𝑉2 2
∆𝐻 = 𝐻1 + − (𝐻2 + ) (1)
2𝑔 2𝑔
Where 𝑉1 and 𝑉2 are respectively the uniform velocities for the upstream and downstream
𝑉2
cross sections. From the energy equation, we find that head loss is directly proportional to 2𝑔.
𝑉2
Plotting head loss against for a screen will result in a function describing their relation.
2𝑔
The ratio of the open area provided by the pores to the total area of a given screen is known
as porosity. The screen used were cut in a pattern known as a round 60° staggered center.
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December 22 -24, 2022
FIG. 2. Diagram of a Porous Screen
No. of holes to be made in the screen is calculated by the following formula.

𝜋
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 × 𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑛 × 4 × 𝐷^2 (2)
The flume used for the tests has a width of 2ft (60.96cm). A fluid is approaching the porous
screen with a velocity 𝑉1 and discharging from the porous screen with a velocity of 𝑉2and the
screen is inclined at an angle θ.
𝑄 = 𝐴×𝑣 = 𝑤×ℎ×𝑣 (3)
Rectangular notch has been used to explain the water flow in the flume. Using the variables
defined in Fig. 3, rectangular notch is described as follows
3
2
𝑄 = 3 × 𝐶𝑑 × 𝐿 × √2𝑔 × 𝐻 2 (4)
Where 𝐶𝑑 is the coefficient of discharge, L is the length of the rectangular notch and H is the
height of nappe.
3. Experiments
3.1 The Hydraulic Lab and Experiment
The hydraulic lab is equipped with a 25ft long (7.62m or 762cm), 2ft wide (0.61m or
60.96cm) and 3ft deep (0.91m or 91.44cm) tilting flume of glass walls and horizontal bottom
(Fig. 3). The flume is supplied by an elevated head tank and delivers water through a vertical
pipe (Fig. 4). The bottom end of the pipe is surrounded by honeycomb boxes to eliminate
turbulence as the water proceeds to the flume. The water discharged from the flume is carried
in a low-level channel to be pumped back into the head tank and recycled.
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December 22 -24, 2022
FIG. 3. A 25ft long, 2ft wide and 3ft deep tilting flume in the Hydraulic Lab
FIG. 4. Head Tank and Control Valves

A constant flow rate was maintained by adjusting the flow control valves located on the
pipes entering and exiting the head tank (Fig. 4).
For calculating head loss, point gauges with 1mm precision were used to measure the
water height in the upstream and downstream of the screen. The point gauge meter is
movable. The structured screen is placed exactly at the middle of both the gates. The
reading was taken just beside the structure in the upstream side. And in the downstream
side, the reading was taken just beside the structure and also 30cm away from the
structure.
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
A thin porous screen was tested during the experiment. The screen (Fig. 5) contained
with 78 no. of holes having 3cm diameter with a length of 7cm from center to center
taking porosity as 10%.
FIG. 5. 3cm Diameter Hole Screen
During the tests, the screen was held in place by 6 no. of upper and lower brackets. The
wooden bracket was clamped at both lower and upper part of the screen in the tilting
flume as shown in Fig. 6. The wooden bracket is 3cm long with 2cm width having
1.5cm height. The wooden bracket was used to lean the porous screen at the desired
angle of inclination θ, i.e. θ = 90º because of the tilting flume. At θ = 90º, the screen is
orthogonal to the channel floor.
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
FIG. 6. Bracket Clamped at the Upper part of Perforated Screen
3.2 Procedure
The tests for determining head loss through a porous screen at a steady flow condition
consists of a total of 7 different water depths in the flume for the screen (3cm diameter
hole screen) with a porosity of 0.1. These water depths ranges from 0.149m - 0.172m.
With the exception from 0.149m - 0.172m, the water depths changes in increments of
0.172m. The upstream and downstream depths of water were recorded in order to be
used in the Equation (1) for determining the head loss. Due to the minor fluctuated
nature of free flowing water, the flow rate and velocity were also calculated for every
water depth. At each water depth, the previously selected angle mentioned were tested to
record the upstream and downstream water depth. The screen (3cm diameter hole
screen) with a porosity of 0.1 were tested at water depths ranging from 0.149m -
0.172m. The brackets were used to support the screen at different water depths, which
resulted in recording of upstream and downstream water heights. There was increments
in both the calculations of discharge and velocities with increase in upstream and
downstream depth of water.
3.3 Behavior of Flow behind Porous Screen

There was a discrepancy between the envelopes of the free surface that were formed
directly behind the screens. In the case of the screen with a porosity of 0.1, the envelope
appeared to have a curve ascent onto the downstream depth with a smooth surface
profile. The free-surface behind the screen showed amplified fluctuation and the water
surface was not as smooth as the cases for screen. The increase of the turbulence
intensity reflects the increase of the head loss for the different approaching water depth.
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
4. Results
With a decreasing water depth there is a decrease in head loss. During analysis, the
variation of the head loss versus water depth was first examined. The head loss for 3cm
diameter screen was plotted against water depth in Fig. 7. The resulting plot indicates
the linear variation between head loss and water depth.
𝑉2
To continue the analysis, head loss for 3cm diameter screen was plotted versus 2𝑔 as shown in
Fig. 8. The plot clearly reflects the linear variation between head loss and the velocity
𝑉2
head 2𝑔. Again for the analysis, head loss was plotted against Q as shown in Fig. 9. Also
𝑄2
plotted against as shown in Fig. 10. The plots reflects the linear variation between head
2𝑔
loss and flow rate.
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Head loss (cm)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5
Water Depth (cm)
FIG. 7. Head Loss plot for different Water depth
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
0.026
0.024
0.022
0.020
Head loss (m)
0.018
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
^- ^- ^- ^- ^- ^- ^- ^- V^2/2g
*10 *10 *10 *10 *10 *10 *10 *10
36 90 74 22 33 04 43 86
8. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. 4. 1.
FIG. 8. Plot of Head Loss by V^2/2g
0.026
0.024
0.022
0.020
Head loss (m)
0.018
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.0025 0.0020 0.0015 0.0010 0.0005 0.0000
Discharge (m^3/sec)
FIG. 9. Head Loss trend of 3cm diameter screen
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
0.026
0.024
0.022
0.020
Head loss (m)
0.018
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 Q^2/2g
^- ^- ^- ^- ^- ^- ^- ^-
*10 *10 *10 *10 *10 *10 *10 *10
44 01 38 24 85 07 29 45
2. 2. 1. 1. 6. 3. 1. 5.
FIG. 10. Plot of Head Loss by Q^2/2g
5. Conclusions
A series of experimental measurements have been carried out to study the head loss as water
flows through a porous screen in an open channel. The influence factors, which include the
flow rate, approaching velocity, pore size, porosity and angle of inclination were calculated.
The general trend for head loss associated with a porous screen is: 1) as the water depth
decreases the head loss decreases and 2) as the flow rate decreases the head loss decreases.
Future study
In the further study head loss will be compared with the wave oscillations through the
perforated screen. A more thorough investigation also needed to better understand the
relationship between head loss and porosity. Based on experiments performed in this study,
more tests on screens with various porosities and fixed thickness should be carried out to
obtain better correlation between the head loss and velocity head for different porosity screen.
References
Balaji, R. and Sundar, V. (2004), Theoretical and experimental investigation on the wave
transmission through slotted screens. Oceanic Engineering International, Vol. 8, pp. 69-90.
Balaji, R. (2011), Characteristics of wave oscillations between two porous barriers. Journal of
Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 17, pp. 50-61.
Channing R.C. Santiago, Ted Chu, K. H. Wang (2007), “Study of the Head Loss Associated
Page 10
December 22 -24, 2022
with a Fluid Flowing through a Porous Screen”. Final Report Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering University of Houston Houston.
Fugazza, M. and Natale, L. (1992), Hydraulic design of perforated breakwaters. Journal of
Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 118, pp. 1-14.
Gunaydin, K. and Kabdasli, M.S. (2004), Performance of solid and perforated u-type
breakwater under regular and irregular waves. Ocean Engineering, Vol. 31, pp. 1377-1405.
Huang, Z.H. (2006), A method to study interactions between narrow-banded random waves
and multi-chamber perforated structures. Acta Mechanica Sinica, Vol. 22, pp. 285-292.
Huang, Z. (2007), Wave interaction with one or two rows of closely spaced rectangular
cylinders. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 34, pp. 1584-
1591.
Li, Y.C.; Dong, G.H.; Liu, H.J.; and Sun, D.P. (2003), The reflection of oblique incident
waves by breakwaters with double-layered perforated wall. Coastal Engineering, Vol. 50, pp.
47-60.
Mansard, E.P.D. and Funke, E.R. (1980), The measurement of incident and reflected spectra
using a least squares method. Proceedings of 17th International Conference on Coastal
Engineering, Sydney, Australia, pp.159-174.
Rageh, O.S. and Koraim, A.S. (2010), Hydraulic performance of vertical walls with
horizontal slot used as breakwater. Costal Engineering, Vol. 57, pp. 745-756.
Rajendra, K. and Balaji, R. (2017), An empirical formula for coefficient of permeability and
its application in theoretical wave-porous structure interaction problems. ISH Journal of
Hydraulic Engineering, DOI:10.1080/09715010.2017.1420496.
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Page 11
Depth variation in soil hydraulic properties of macropores in an

agricultural field
Vashishth, N.1, Ojha, R.2
1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering,
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, India - 208016; Email: nirali@iitk.ac.in
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Kanpur, India - 208016; Email: richao@iitk.ac.in
Abstract
Soil macropores allow faster movement of water and contaminants through the unsaturated
zone, and their presence has been linked to low irrigation efficiency, loss of soil nutrients and
fertilizer, and pollution of groundwater. Therefore, it is important to understand soil
macropores' quantity and spatial distribution in agricultural fields. This study aims to analyse
the depth variation in hydraulic properties of soil macropores in an experimental plot located
in IIT, Kanpur after the wheat cropping season. The measurements are done using Tension
Disc Infiltrometer at three different depths i.e. 10 cm, 25 cm and 50 cm, and for five different
pressure heads in the narrow range of 0 to -15 cm (-15, -12, -9, -6 and -3 cm) at different
locations in the plot. Further, dye tracer test is conducted to quantify the soil macropores. The
measured data will be used to infer and compare the variation of hydraulic conductivity (K)
and macroporosity at three different depths for different suction heads.
Keywords: macropores, tension-disc infiltrometer, soil hydraulic properties
1. Introduction
Preferential flow through macropores has been recognized as a potential mechanism for rapid
hydrologic transport of solutes in both saturated and unsaturated soils (Beven and Germann,
1982; Thomas and Phillips, 1979; and White, 1984). For better prediction of both agricultural
production and environmental impact, it is imperative to understand the physical behaviour of
soil. To this end, measurement of soil hydraulic properties, such as hydraulic conductivity (K)
at different soil-water pressure heads, and quantification of water-conducting macroporosity
and mesoporosity are important (Soracco et al., 2011).
Several methods have been used to obtain macropore parameters, such as tracer-breakthrough
curves, computer tomography, and dye staining and sectioning (Anderson and Bouma,
1977a,b; Elrick and French, 1966; Logsdon et al., 1990; Singh et al., 1991; Warner et al., 1989;
Bouma and Dekker, 1978; and Bouma et al., 1979). Dye tracing and image analysis method is
commonly used for study of soil pores (Qiu et al.,2013). For estimation of hydraulic properties,
tension disc infiltrometer has become a popular tool for in situ quantification of macropore
parameters and infiltration of saturated and near saturated soil water flows (Perroux and White,
1988; Watson and Luxmoore, 1986; Ramos et al., 2006; Ankeny et al., 1991; Šimůnek et al.,
1999a).
The objective of this study is to analyse the spatial variability in hydraulic properties of soil
Page 1
macropores in an experimental plot after wheat cropping season by means of dye tracer and
tension disc infiltrometer experiments.
2.1 Study Area
Field experiments were conducted in an experimental agricultural field (20 m × 30 m) located

at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (26.5168 N, 80.2314 E; altitude 126 m AMSL)
in the Upper Gangetic Plains of Uttar Pradesh, India. The plot size is representative of the
scattered farm holdings of low-income farmers in the region. The mean annual precipitation is
801.5 mm, the mean annual temperature is 32.2 °C, and the warmest and coolest months are
May and January with a mean temperature of 41.3 °C and 8.5 °C, respectively (Panwar et al.,
2019). The study area was divided into 24 subplots with 11 m2 each as shown in Figure 1. The
plot is plain without any microtopology. The field is alternatively cultivated with rice and wheat
crops during kharif and rabi season since August 2017. Three soil samples collected at 10−15
cm depth and at random locations in the field revealed that the soil in the field is silty loam with
a mean 20.9, 69.8 and 9.3 % of sand, silt, and clay textures, respectively.
Figure 1 Geographical location of study area
2.2 Dye Infiltration Experiment
Dye tracers are widely used to study preferential flow phenomena, soil structure and examine
Page 2
the number, size and shape of conducting pores in order to provide water flow characteristics
of soil (Bouma and Dekker, 1978; Sander and Gerke, 2007; Alaoui and Goetz, 2008).
The dye tracer experiment was conducted on an agricultural plot in IIT Kanpur. The soil is silty
loam. A square experimental plot of size 1m×1m was established in situ surrounded by four
metal panels (1m long and 0.6m high) hammered into the soil about 0.45m depth to avoid
lateral leaching (see Figure 2). To dye the soil, brilliant blue FCF solution (5kg/m3) was applied
as a ponded pulse of 0.05m across the area of 1m2. After one day’s infiltration and dyeing,
vertical soil profiles of the plot, which were 1m deep and 1m wide, were dug (Figure 3a).
Photos were taken with a digital camera using a wooden frame (1m×1m) as a spatial reference.
Figure 2. Field set-up for dye-tracer experiment
2.3 Image Analysis
The pictures were processed with the image editing program Adobe Photoshop 2022. The first
step was to de-skew the pictures that could not be photographed orthogonally, then the
saturation of the blue stains was maximized. As a result, three colours (yellow, green, and blue)
and two tinges (light and dark blue) appeared (Figures 3b). The third step was to remove the
brown colour of the unstained areas. In the fourth step, the images were converted to grayscale
and their contrast was increased. Lastly, the images were converted to vector format using
Adobe Illustrator (Figures 3c).
Further image analysis to calculate the percentage of dye-stained area was done using
MATLAB R2021a, the result of which is discussed in Section 3.
a) b) c)
Figure 3. Dye tracer experiment images: (a) vertical profile image, (b) processed image
and (c) grayscale image for wheat field
Page 3
2.4 In-situ Infiltration Test
Tension disc infiltrometers are increasingly used to study the effect of macropores and
preferential flow paths on infiltration in the field. Analysis can be done either by using two
infiltration measurements using two different diameter discs, or imposing different tensions on
a single disc. The latter method was employed in this study.
The infiltration tests were carried out after harvest of wheat crop. A tension disc infiltrometer
manufactured by SOILMOISTURE EQUIPMENT CORP. (Santa Barbara, U.S.A.) was used
to determine steady-state infiltration rate. The infiltrometer disc had a base diameter of 20 cm.
Infiltration measurements were conducted on three different depths of 10, 25 and 50 cm in
three randomly selected plots. To ensure good hydraulic contact between the disc and the soil,
the surface was cleaned and a thin dry sand layer was spread on it. A level was used to assure
that the disc and the reservoir base were always at the same height so that the head between the
bubbling outlet at the bottom of the water supply tube and the disc membrane was constant.
The following h0 values were imposed in sequence without interruption: -15, -12, -9, -6 and -3
cm.
The infiltrometer data was analysed using the methodology suggested by Šimůnek and van
Genuchten (1997) using DISC software package available in HYDRUS-2D. The results
obtained are discussed in Section 3.
Figure 3. Tension disc infiltrometer setup
Page 4
After image analysis, 40.62% dye coverage was observed in the vertical profile photographed
along the wheat plot. A distinct dye stain was also observed at the depth of 0.90m around a
burrow hole. This is in accordance with finding of earlier studies which suggest that water
flows along preferential pathways created by plant roots and fauna.
The general trend as observed from Table 1 shows very low flow at highly negative pressure
heads of 12 cm and 15 cm. The plots showing variation of soil hydraulic properties (water
content and hydraulic conductivity) with pressure and that of cumulative infiltration for
different depths are shown in Figure 4. The cumulative infiltration at three depths varies greatly
with time even though there is only slight difference in their SHPs.
Table 1: Infiltration rate as observed at different depths at different pressure heads

Depth (cm) Infiltration rate (cm/sec)
H=-3cm H=-6cm H=-9cm H=-12cm H=-15cm
10 1.38 0.3 0.0511 0.00033333 0.00018333
25 0.72 0.343 0.219 0.002 0.00206667
50 0.72 0.0453 0 0 8.3333E-05
Hydraulic
a) Properties: Theta vs. h Hydraulic
b) Properties: log K vs. h c)
0.45 -3 35
0.40 -4 30
0.35 -5 25
0.30 -6 20
-7
15
0.25
10
0.20 -8
5
0.15 -9
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0
|Pressure Head| [cm] 0 10000 20000 30000 40000
|Pressure Head| [cm]
Time [sec]
Page 5
Hydraulic
d) Properties: Theta vs. h e)
Hydraulic Properties: log K vs. h f)
0.45
-3 40
0.40 35
-4
0.35 30
-5
25
0.30
-6 20
0.25
15
-7
0.20 10
-8 5
0.15
0 200 400 600 800 1000 -9 0
| Pressure Head| [cm] 0 20000 40000 60000
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Time [sec]
| Pressure Head| [cm]
g)
Hydraulic Properties: Theta vs. h h)
Hydraulic Properties: log K vs. h i)
0.45 -3 16
14
0.40 -4
12
0.35 -5
10
0.30 -6 8
0.25 -7 6
4
0.20 -8
2
0.15 -9 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 10000 20000 30000
| Pressure Head| [cm] | Pressure Head| [cm] Time [sec]
Figure 4: Variation of SHPs with pressure head and cumulative infiltration with time
for depths 10 cm (a, b and c), 25cm (d, e and f) and 50 cm (g, h and i)
4. Conclusions

(i) The results from dye tracer experiment suggest that agricultural activities intensively
increase the presence of macropores in soil. This can be observed by presence of visibly
high dye concentrations in most part of the photographed profile. The effect of these
macropores on water movement needs to be examined further.
(ii) There is only a very slight difference in soil hydraulics properties at the three depths
which can attributed to the fact that the crop was only recently harvested. Presence of
plant root system was observed at the depths where infiltrometer experiments were
conducted.
(iii) Although the SHPs show slight difference from each other, the plot for cumulative
infiltration with time varies greatly for all the three depths. The kinks at different points
in the graphs mark the instances at which pressure had been changed. Higher infiltration
rate was observed at smaller negative heads of -3, -6 and -9 cm as compared to that at -
12 and -15 cm head. This finding is in accordance with the previous studies which defined
Page 6
macropores, mesopores, and micropores as those pores that drain at <3 cm, between 3
and 300 cm, and >300 cm H2O tension, respectively (Luxmoore, 1981).
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MOES) through Project No.
MoES/PAMC/H&C/116/2018-PC-II.
References
Alaoui, A., & Goetz, B. (2008). Dye tracer and infiltration experiments to investigate macropore
flow. Geoderma, 144(1-2), 279-286.
Ankeny, M.D., A. Mushtaque, T. Kaspar, and R. Horton.(1991). Simple field method for determining
unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 55:467–470.
Anderson, J. L., & Bouma, J. (1977). Water movement through pedal soils: I. Saturated flow. Soil
Science Society of America Journal, 41(2), 413-418.Anderson, J. L. and J. Bouma. 1977b. Water
movement through pedal soils: II.Unsaturated flow. 7. Soil ScL Soc. Am. 41:419-423.
Beven, K., & Germann, P. (1982). Macropores and water flow in soils. Water resources
research, 18(5), 1311-1325..
Bouma, J. and L. W. Dekker. 1978. A case study on infiltration into dry clay soil, I. Morphological
observations. Geoderma 20:27-40.
Bouma, J., A. Jongerius and D. Schoonderbeek. 1979. Calculations of saturated hydraulic conductivity
of some pedal clay soils using micromorphometric data. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 43:261-264.
Elrick, D. E. and L. K. French. 1966. Miscible displacement patterns on disturbed and undisturbed soil
cores. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Proc. 30:153-156.
Logsdon, S. D., R. R. AUmaras, L. Wu, J. B. Swan and G. W. Randall. 1990. Macroporosity and its
relation to saturated hydraulic conductivity under different tillage practices. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J.
54:1096-1101.
Luxmoore, R. J. (1981). Micro-, meso-, and macroporosity of soil. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J.;(United
States), 45(3).
Panwar, A. S., Shamim, M., Babu, S., Ravishankar, N., Prusty, A. K., Alam, N. M., ... & Desai, L. J.
(2018). Enhancement in productivity, nutrients use efficiency, and economics of rice-wheat
cropping systems in India through farmer’s participatory approach. Sustainability, 11(1), 122.
Perroux, K.M., and I. White. 1988. Design for disc permeameters. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 52:1205–1215
Qiu, L., Chen, X., and Pan, J. (2013). In situ measurement of soil macropores by dye tracing and image
analysis. Agro-Geoinformatics (Agro-Geoinformatics), 2013 Second International Conference
on (pp. 13-17). IEEE.
Ramos, T. B., Goncalves, M. C., Martins, J. C., Van Genuchten, M. T., & Pires, F. P. (2006). Estimation
of soil hydraulic properties from numerical inversion of tension disk infiltrometer data. Vadose
Zone Journal, 5(2), 684-696.
Sander, T., & Gerke, H. H. (2007). Preferential flow patterns in paddy fields using a dye tracer. Vadose
Zone Journal, 6(1), 105-115.
Simunek, J., & van Genuchten, M. T. (1997). Estimating unsaturated soil hydraulic properties from
multiple tension disc infiltrometer data. Soil Science, 162(6), 383-398.
Šimůnek, J., Wendroth, O., & van Genuchten, M. T. (1999). Estimating unsaturated soil hydraulic
properties from laboratory tension disc infiltrometer experiments. Water Resources
Research, 35(10), 2965-2979.
Singh, P., R. S. Kanwar and M. L. Thompson. 1991. Measurement and characterization of macropores
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by AUTOCAD and automatic image analysis. 7. Environ. Qual. 20:289-294.

Soracco, C. G., Lozano, L. A., Sarli, G. O., Gelati, P. R., & Filgueira, R. R. (2011). Using tension disc
infiltrometer to determine infiltration and water-conducting macroporosity and mesoporosity
relationships in an agricultural silty loam soil. Soil science, 176(9), 459-463.
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Qual. 8(2): 149-152.
Warner, G. S., L D. Moore, J. L. Nieber and R. L. Geise. 1989. Characterization of macropores in soil
by computer tomography. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 53:653-660.
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through soil. Adv. Soil Sci. 3:95-120.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Real Time Structural Health Monitoring of Dam using IoT & AI

Techniques
Khan A.1, Mishra S.2, Pandey S.3 , Sardar T.4, Mishra M5
1,3
PhD Research Scholar, Department of CARS & GM, Academy of Scientific and Innovative
Research (AcSIR) and CSIR-Advanced Materials and Processes Research Institute (AMPRI),
Bhopal- 462026 India;
2
Principal. Scientist, Department of CARS & GM, Academy of Scientific and Innovative
Research (AcSIR) and CSIR-Advanced Materials and Processes Research Institute (AMPRI),
Bhopal- India;
4,5
Project Associate, CARS &GM, CSIR-Advanced Materials and Processes Research
Institute (AMPRI),Bhopal-462026, India;
Corresponding Author’s Email ID: snmishra07@gmail.com
Abstract
Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is an innovative and modern method of observing

hydrological Dam’s integrity, safety and performance without damaging the structure itself
and play the essential and important role for current era and serves the valuable information
to the user agencies, researchers and other administrative officials such as Dam Monitoring
Centre (DMC).Due to earthquake, high floods and other disasters create measure disturbance
in structure of the manmade constructions such as dam, bridge, building etc. The structure's
sustainability is strongly tied not just to its societal and financial advantages, but also to the
individual and asset stability of citizens living near the structure. As a result, it is critical to
use real-time actual data tools to track the condition of hydro dams. Dams safety is closely
tied to the dam area's financial and social advantages as well as the people' individual and
material security. So, it is crucial to use real monitoring tools to keep an eye on the condition
of hydraulic dams. With recent development of Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and Wireless Integrated Sensor Devices (WSD) playing measure roles in
every field of research to examine different parameters of hydrological dam and provide the
information to the cloud-based storage system, which analyze the data and transfer predicted
information to DMC. The primary principal objective of this paper to present a hydrological
dam health monitoring model using IoT based sensor & AI techniques to provide real time
information.
Keywords: Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), Dam, IoT, AI, WSD
1. Introduction
Civil Engineering primarily deals with the designing and strengthening of structures.
Structures may be roads, highways, buildings, dams, canals, tunnels & bridges etc. All these
are collectively called civil structures(Bukenya, Oyo and H. Beushausen2014). The
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
maintenance and construction of these civil structures are carried out by civil engineers with
large workforce at various levels with diverse skills. Reservoirs are constructed for superior
resolutions such as continued water supply, flood protection, irrigation, sedimentation
control, and hydropower generation etc. The strength of reservoir have high impact on the
individual assets and the environment. SHM through different tools is the upmost
requirement of a reservoirs safety. (Bukenya,Moyo and H. Beushausen, 2014;Kang,Li,Zhao,
2018; O. Avci et al., 2020).
Destruction is defined as an alteration in a system's geometric or material features that has a

negative impact on the productivity, security, dependability, and workability. (P. Roshan et
al., 2015). based on this explanation destruction is widely seen in engineering structures
owing to creep, corrode, deformation, fatigue, and washout; nevertheless, harm does not
always signal a total and unexpected breakdown of a structure, (Esmaielzadeh,Ahmadi and
Hosseini, 2018). If no corrective steps are taken, harm might build until the breakdown state
is reached. Generally, based on the type of deterioration, stuctures may fail gradually or
suddenly. Collapse due to fractures, erosion, or fatigue, for example, often occurs over
extended time periods, although earthquakes, storms, and fire-induced deterioration might
result in a quick failure. As a result, it is critical to continuously monitor civil structures in to
assess their physical integrity and offer advance indication of extensive deterioration.
(Singh,Ahmad and Yadav, 2020; Zaman,Ali and Singh, 2016).
To overcome and getting control the mentioned situations, SHM for civil construction is an
approach for detecting and categorizing deterioration. Non-destructive scanning approach
that aims to offer real-time data on the condition of the component materials at every second
during the lifecycle of a construction. The basic goal of SHM of concrete dams is to discover
real anomalous circumstances in order to remove or limit their impacts; hence, SHM will
assist us in achieving enhanced structure lifespan and fitness, cheaper to maintain, and higher
reliability. (Cheng et al., 2015; Patil et al., 2020).
For the better SHM process, the current technological interventions are in demand. The
procedure of evaluating integrity of the structure has become considerably simpler and easier
thanks to technological advancements. Internet of Things(IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
are to be used as a tool which are helpful for the SHM of dams(Xu, He and Li, 2014).
IoT is an intelligent wireless technology that is used in several sectors. IoT has a variety of
uses in the structural infrastructure sector. One of the greatest applications to accomplish
these goals is the SHM method. IoT is employed to monitor a variety of structural
characteristics, including strain, fracture breadth, vibration, temperature, moisture, pressure
and a number of others (Abdelgawad and Yelamarthi, 2017). IoT is an idea that entails
utilising sensors to gather information and the network to distribute that data (Madakam et
al., 2015). Middleware (Web), sensors (Nodes) and knowledge (sematic) are the three
important gears in IoT tool (Kiran and Anwar, 2018). Sensors are mounted on civil
infrastructure and connected with IoT gateway (microcontroller)like Arduino Uno with Wi-Fi
module which collects, processes and transfers data to AI based cloud storage system. Then
processed data analyze by AI techniques and storedataat cloud and then only data accessed by
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December 22 -24, 2022
users to get the required information as a broad meaningful picture (Misra et al., 2020).
Figure 1 shows the typical IoT data acquisition system of Dam with the help of wired and
wireless sensors (Abruzzese et al.,2020).
Figure 1 Typical IoT and AI data acquisition system with wireless or wired sensors.
Various types of software are used to analyze and manipulate the sensed data.The MATLAB
is one of the best software for graphical representation of wireless sensing devices data. The
use of IoT will help us to collect the important parametersof any civil structureinvery less
time with the help of SHM process (Tokognon et al., 2017).
AI is a field of computer science that aims to create machines with human-like ability in
decision making and task performance. Early uses of AI focused on regulation issues that
were cognitively demanding for people (Avci et al., 2020).
AI is demonstrating to be an effective replacement for traditional methodologies. AI provides
benefits for dealing with issues involving uncertainty and is a powerful tool for resolving
such challenging issues. AI also reduce error rates, speed up computing, and boost system
performance (Salehia andBurgueno,2018). Like Pattern Recognition (PR), Machine Learning
(ML) and Deep learning (DL) are upcoming cutting tools of AI performing significant on
efficiency for SHM (Khodaei and Aliabadi, 2014). Figure 2 shows the typical relationship of
PR, ML, and DL with the AI and also shows the different applications of these methods in
civil infrastructure (Hooda et al., 2021).
Figure 2 Different application of AI using ML, PR, DL methods in SHM
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December 22 -24, 2022
Now with the help of current IoT and AI techniques we are able to identify the damage in the
structure with its severity and location in real time with the use of wireless sensing devices.
This is novel technique for SHM of hydrological dam for identification of cracks width,
strain, seepage, displacement etc.
2. Study Area
Figure 3 shows the waterways Betwa branch Kaliasot River serves as the foundation for the
Kaliasot dam (Google Maps). This dam is located in Bhopal and has location of 23°12'3' N
and 77°24'29' E. The reservoir, which was built for agricultural purposes and is close to the
community of Chuna Bhatti, provides water to roughly 10425 hectares of territory in
the districts of Bhopal and Raisen yearly.
River :- Kaliasot
Nearest City :- Bhopal
Completion Year :- 1988
Type :- Earthen
Length :- 1080 m
Ht of Dam :- 67.08 m
Catchment Area :- 365.2 sq km
MWL :- 505.67 m
3. Methodology
The site selection of the study area is very essential and important, this kaliasot dam is under
the age of criticality due to 34 years old since 1988, so proper health monitoring is required in
Kaliasot dam. After selection of dam site, the historic data, current health status and
techniques are collected from concerned organization. With the help of the collected data, the
affecting parameters of dam are analyzed, Strain and uneven cracks are the widely observed
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December 22 -24, 2022
issues. Upcoming sensing technologies such as strain gauge has great potential to identify the
defects in the structure. AI based algorithms are used for processing and analyzing the data.
And also helps to find out the damage location and detection with the severity of the damage.
Figure 4 shows the comprehensive methodology of SHM which is used for this study.
Figure 4 Flow chart of SHM Methodology
3.1 Sensors
We are discussing about two parameter of Dam structure regarding SHM such as strain and
vibration. For these two parameters we have to utilized strain Gauge sensor and piezoelectric
(PZT) sensor.
3.1.1 Strain Gauge Sensor
A strain gauge sensor measure change in length caused by an external force and convert it
into an electrical signal, which is converted to digital values and displayed. This works
because a strain gauge sensor experiences a change in resistance as it is stretched or
compressed. A linear mechanical strain gauge is shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5 Strain Gauge Sensor (Michigan Scientific Corporation (MSC))
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
3.1.2 Piezoelectric vibration sensors
A piezoelectric sensor uses the piezoelectric effect to measure the different unknown
parameters like pressure and vibration and provide the digital values. The observing and
investigating the vibrational signals into patterns like time waveform or frequency spectrum
is necessary in SHM. Vibrations is described both in intensity by amplitude and in periodicity
by frequency. Figure 6 shows the Piezoelectric vibration sensor along with the mechanism.
As the pressure of the water increases with the water level the diaphragm gets stressed and
elongates resulting in the compression of the crystal. The piezoelectric effect of the crystal
shows the potential difference in the circuit.
Figure 6 Piezoelectric Vibration Sensor along with the mechanism(Circuits DIY).
3.2 System Architecture of SHM
Figure 7 shows IoT based system used for different SHM applications such as strain, crack
width, temperature and vibration etc. The “things” in IoT is a civil infrastructure and must be
connected to the Internet system, with embedded sensors and actuators measuring SHM
parameters and passing the data via IoT gateways. The next stage is data collection by using
data acquisition system, which filter enormous amounts of data for further analysis. The next
stage is data analytics and cloud computing in which data pre-process with the use of AI
based machine learning techniques before sending them to the cloud. A cloud centre stores
and analyse large quantities of data. The last stage is SHM data interpretation and user
interface which provide broad meaningful picture to broadcast the appropriate response to the
user.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 7 System Architecture of SHM
The detailed analysis has been carried out for Kaliasot dam and the surrounding catchment
area. Strain and irregular cracks are the main reasons for declining structure health. Structure
health monitoring gives the best possible support to preventive maintenance. Micro Electro
Mechanical System (MEMS) proved huge potential and dependency for SHM. Digital Strain
gauge, crack integrated detector are the main tools of the system which are integrated with
IoT and AI for best possible outcome.
The testing kit is applied to the tank in the lab and the IoT based platform is also designed.
The testing kit is tested in the lab on the tank for the performance and the results are
satisfactory and served from remote places as shown in Figure 8. The Vibrations shown in
the chart is in Hz, and pressure in KN/sq. m. The result takes 15 seconds to show on the
server with the help of a WiFi module and IoT platform. The designed model is ready to
apply on the dam walls.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 8 The Vibrational, Strain and Pressure graph at lab work
5. Conclusion and Future Study
The ageing phenomenon of concrete structures is very thought-provoking to predict

remaining service life and this can lead to damage and mishaps. Concrete structures such as
hydrological dams, bridges, canals, and nuclear plants are so imperative that we have to be
sure; they are in good condition always. This investigation has summarized the main demand
of SHM technology to constantly monitor the structure to prevent it from ultimate failure and
damage. The material degradation, damage and damage location can be observed by properly
analyzing and monitoring the structure and by this maintenance, methods can be selected to
improve the performance of the structure. In order to reduce the damage prevent unnecessary
failures and also prevent unnecessary replacement of components of the structure, a
condition-based maintenance programme might employ the SHM data that was acquired. In
such value added large structure such as hydrological dam, AI based algorithm are designed
and utilized for IoT based processing and analyzing the data from wireless sensing devices to
find real time health status and to predict remaining service life of the structure with severity
of damage.
Acknowledgements
I Acknowledge Director, CSIR-AMPRI, Bhopal for giving opportunity and facility for the
work.
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Study of flash floods and flow prediction by AI techniques
A Uma Maheshwari1, Margaret Wesley2, P Vikesh3, K Rahul4 , Devi K5

1
UG Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Vidya Jyothi Institute of Technology, Aziz Nagar
Gate, C.B Post, Hyderabad, India – 500075,E-mail: umamaheswari.attada@gmail.com
2
UG Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Vidya Jyothi Institute of Technology ,Aziz Nagar
Gate, C.B Post, Hyderabad, India – 500075, E-mail: margaret.wesley1204@gmail.com
3
Gate, C.B Post, Hyderabad, India – 500075, E-mail: Pvikeshyadav@gmail.com
4
Gate, C.B Post, Hyderabad, India – 500075, E-mail:kandakatlarahul18@gmail.com
5
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Vidya Jyothi Institute of Technology
Aziz Nagar Gate, Hyderabad, India – 500075, E-mail: kamalinidevi1@gmail.com
Abstract
Flash flood is a weather phenomenon which is complex. Flash flood is a flood that usually
occurs in a short period of time after heavy rainfall or a sudden massive snow melt. The main
causes for occurrence of flash floods are heavy rainfall, improper urban drainage system, melting
of glaciers and overflowing of rivers. There are many flash floods which occurred in our country.
In this paper, six flash floods that occurred in our country were studied, namely i) Ladakh Flash
Flood 2010 ,ii) Uttarakhand Flash Flood 2013,iii) Kerala Flash Flood 2018 ,iv)Maharashtra
Flash Flood 2019 ,v) Hyderabad Flash Flood 2020, vi) Assam Flash Flood 2020. In this paper,
China Flash Flood 2021 was also studied to understand the nature of flash floods in foreign
countries.
Further, a small catchment was selected nearer to city Hyderabad as the study site at Nalgonda.
The past 30 years (1991-2020) data is collected at site from Central Water Commission and is
analysed to understand the outflow corresponding to precipitation. The years in which maximum
discharge was observed in that 30 years period were studied, reasons behind large outflow were
analysed. An Artificial Intelligence program is designed to predict the outflow at the site
corresponding to rainfall and water level at a particular instant. Machine learning (Linear
regression technique) is used as prediction methodology to predict the discharge in a catchment
area.
Keywords; Flash Flood, Discharge, Artificial Intelligence, Machine learning Technique
1. Introduction
Floods are basically an extreme form of hydrological phenomena (Dhar and Nandargi, 2003) and
it is generated by natural causes or anthropogenic causes representing a classic example of the
pulsed type of disturbance in the river (Knighton, 1998).The impact of a flash flood is primarily
related to the sudden increase in Water level and velocity of flood water(Matthew
Welsh,2022).The phenomena involved in extreme flash flood events are complex and their
prediction is affected by a given degree of uncertainity that makes the warning communication
very difficult to achieve (Caporali Enrico,2010). National weather service gives advice to people
1
in the US to “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN”, it recommends that people should depart
from the area of a flash flood, rather than trying to cross it, these rains often fall on poorly
absorbent and often clay-like soil, which significantly increases the amount of run-off in the
rivers and other water channels which leads to failure of structures and ill-treat of human lives.
Surve(2020) studied the effect of dam failure and reasons behind the failure of Tiware dam (2
July 2019 ) i.e., failure of approach conduit due to which settlement took place and hence dam
lost its strength and led to collapse when the water level increased due to heavy rains. Analysis
of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with an
average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these flash floods translate into a
loss of 1.5 million of the population. There are two powerful floods recorded in India; -1. The
flood of 6th September 1970 on the Narmada River, 2. The flood of 11th August,1979 on the
Machhu River. According to statistics, 12% of India’s land is prone to floods.In India, Bihar is
the most flooded prone state with 76% of the population of north Bihar living under the recurring
thread of flood devastation. These flood devastation triggered heavy synoptic disturbances in
several states of India. e.g., Kerala experienced an abnormally high rainfall from 1 June 2018 to
19 August 2018, these rainfall and runoff data are analyzed by Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD) for Kerala Floods. One of the most devastating events experienced by the
people of Ladakh on 6th August, 2010, due to rainfall of 14 inches within a short span of 2 hours
at midnight in Leh. Yangkey (2020) (a scholar from Duke University) studied the precipitation in
Ladakh and analyzed the change in precipitation patterns in the region. Similarly, Hyderabad city
also experienced flood water (along the Musi River) which is estimated to be submerged under
0.6 m to 1.2m, Rangari et al. (2021) prepared a report on Rapid assessment of the October 2020
Hyderabad urban floods and risk analysis using Geospatial data. Assam state refers to the
significant flood event of the Brahmaputra River in 2020, this flood disaster management was
analyzed by Debbarma & Deen (2020).
On 07 Feb 2021, belоw the Nаndа Devi mountain (Indiа's seсоnd-highest рeаk), the avalanche
led tо flаsh flооds in Uttarakhand. Chauhan and Jaiswal (2021) published a report on the
Uttarakhand floods, which gives information about the effects and Rescue operations in Chamoli
Disaster. Central Water Commission (CWC) is a technical organization of the Government of
India which made a study report by the researchers found that the rainfall in the state is
controlled by the South-west and northeast monsoons. Not only in India, in the last decade, but
the average annual precipitation was also 464.2 to 1193.2 mm in China with a total population of
109.52 million and a permanent population of 96.4 million at the end of 2019. Guo et al. (2020)
from Monash University prepared a research paper titled “Floods in China, COVID-19, and
climate change”, which contains causes, intensity, effects, economic damage, casualties, and
relief measures. According to World Resource Institute (WRI), India tops the list of 163 nations
affected by river floods in terms of number of people. In this paper, major Flash floods that
occurred in India and in foreign country were studied to know the impact of flash floods and
selected a catchment area in Hyderabad to form a relation between Discharge with respect to
causative precipitation and Water Level using AI Techniques.
2
2. Methods
2.1 AI Techniques to Predict Discharge
Artificial intelligence is the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially

computer systems. In this paper machine learning technique is used to predict the discharge in
the Moosi river. The complete implementation of the model is done in google collaboratory and
the dataset is acquired from the Central Water Commission. Packages like NumPy, Pandas and
Scikit learn are imported to implement the model. Matplotlib library is used to create interactive
figures and graphs that can zoom, pan, or update. The iloc() function is used to select a specific
row or column from the dataset. The values which are empty in the data set are directly dropped
from the dataset using the function Dropna (). Linear regression is imported from the Scikit learn
library which fits a linear model to minimize the errors between the observed targets in the
dataset and the targets predicted by linear approximation. The daily hydrological data i.e.,
Rainfall, Water Level, and Discharge of the period 1990-2019 was considered for generating the
A.I. algorithm.
• NumPy( Numerical Python ) is a Python library used for working with arrays.
• Pandas is used for playing with the data such as manipulating the data, analyzing
the data, storing the data and many more.
• Scikit learn is a library which stores all the machine learning algorithms.
• Linear regression is an algorithm used to predict, or visualize, a relationship
between two different features/variables. A linear regression line has an equation of the
form of Y = a + bX.
2.2.1 Case studies
2.2.1.1 Kerala Flash Flood 2018
Kerala State has an average annual precipitation of about 3000. About 90% of the rainfall occurs
during six monsoon months. Kerala experienced an abnormally high rainfall from 1 June 2018 to
19 August 2018.This resulted in severe flooding in 13 out of 14 districts in the State. As per
Indian Meteorological Department IMD data, Kerala received 2346.6 mm of rainfall from 1 June
2018 to 19 August 2018 in contrast to an expected 1649.5 mm of rainfall. This rainfall was about
42% above the normal. Further, the rainfall over Kerala during June, July and 1st to 19th of
August was 15%, 18% and 164% respectively, above normal. Table-2.1 shows month-wise
rainfall for the period, as reported by IMD.
Table 2.1 Month wise actual rainfall, normal rainfall and percentage departure from
normal
Period Normal rainfall Actual rainfall Departure from
(mm) (mm) normal (%)
3
June, 2018 649.8 749.6 15

July, 2018 726.1 857.4 18
August 1-19, 2018 287.6 758.6 164
Total 1649.5 2346.6 42
District wise rainfall realised in Kerala as per IMD records is presented in Table-2.2, where it
can be seen that the rainfall departure in Idukki is the highest viz. 92%.
Table 2.2 District wise rainfall realised during 1 June 2018 to 22 August 2018
Normal Actual Departure from Normal
Districts Rainfall Rainfall (%)
(mm) (mm)
Kerala State 1701.4 2394.1 41 Excess
Alappuzha 1380.6 1784 29 Excess
Kannur 2333.2 2573.3 10 Normal
Ernakulam 1680.4 2477.8 47 Excess
Idukki 1851.7 3555.5 92 Large Excess
Kasaragode 2609.8 2287.1 -12 Normal
Kollam 1038.9 1579.3 52 Excess
Kottayam 1531.1 2307 51 Excess
Kozhikode 2250.4 2898 29 Excess
Causes
Kerala received heavy monsoon rainfall, which was about 116% more than the usual rainfall in
Kerala, on the mid-evening of 8 August, resulting in dams filling to their maximum capacities; in
the first 48 hours of rainfall the state received 310 mm (12 in) of rain
Impacts
Over 483 people died, and 140 are missing, while The Economic Times reported that 33,000
people were rescued. Over 3,274 relief camps had been opened at various locations to
accommodate the flood victims. It is estimated that 1,247,496 people had found shelter in such
camps. The flooding had affected hundreds of villages, destroyed an estimated 10,000 km
(6,200 mi) of roads and thousands of homes have been damaged or destroyed.
Satellite images of Kerala
The figure 2.1(a) and 2.1(b) illustrate satellite images of Kerala on 6th June 2018 and 19th August
2018. This image implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
4
Fig 2.1 (a) 6 June2018 Fig 2.1(b) 19 August2018
2.2.1.2 Ladakh Flash Flood 2010
In the midnight of August 6, 2010, Leh in Ladakh region of North India received a heavy
downpour. The cloud burst occurred all of a sudden that caught everyone unawares. Within a
short span of about 2 h, it recorded a rainfall of 14 inches.
Impacts
34 persons died and over 800 were reported missing. Almost half of the people who died were
local residents (49.6%) and foreigners (10.2%). Age-wise analysis of the deaths shows that the
majority of deaths were reported in the age group of 25-50 years, accounting for 44.4% of
deaths, followed by the 11-25-year age group with 22.2% deaths.
Satellite images of Ladakh
The figure 2.2(a) and 2.2(b) illustrate satellite images of Ladakh on 3rd August 2010 and 20th
August 2010. This image implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
Fig 2.2(a) 3 August 2010 Fig 2.2(b) 20 August 2010
2.2.1.3 Hyderabad Flash Flood 2020
The 2020 Hyderabad floods were a series of floods associated with Deep Depression BOB 02
that caused extensive damage and loss of life as a result of flash flooding in Hyderabad, India in
October 2020. City (along the Musi River), is estimated to be submerged under 0.6 m - 1.2 m of
floodwater, as represented in the below map. Hyderabad had seen its worst rainfall in 117 years,
with 19.2 cm of average rainfall in October, the highest rainfall recorded in October since 1903.
5
Impacts
• The floodgates of the Himayat Sagar were lifted as the water reached full reservoir levels,
and the Musi River flowed full stream, flooding several localities and flowing over two
causeway bridges.
• 2 people died in Vijayawada, and 50 people died on different parts of Telangana, including
19 in Hyderabad. Additionally, 27 people died in Maharashtra. Extreme crop loss in north
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana occurred due to the system.
• Rainfall reached over 110 millimetres (4.3 in) in parts of Hyderabad, with heavier rainfall
amounts outside of the city. With over 80 people having lost their lives and about 40,000
families being displaced, post rain gathering up-to 20,000 tons of waste.
3.3.3 Satellite images of Hyderabad, Telangana
The figure 2.3(a) and 2.3(b) illustrate satellite images of Hyderabad on 6th October 2020 and 14th
October 2020. This images implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
Fig 2.3(a) 6 October 2020 Fig 2.3 (b) 14 October 2020
2.2.1.4 Uttarakhand Flash Flood 2013
The incident began оn 07 Feb 2021 at Nаndа Devi Mountain (Indiа's seсоnd-highest рeаk).
Роwer minister R.K. Singh sаid аn аvаlаnсhe is led tо flаsh flооds thаt sweрt аwаy the smаll
Rishi gаngа hydrо eleсtriс рrоjeсt аnd dаmаged а bigger оne further dоwn the Dhаuligаngа river
being built by stаte firm NTРС. Within minutes the muddy deluge gushed dоwn dаmаging the
13.2 MW Rishi gаngа hydrо роwer рrоjeсt аnd then wаshing аwаy the under-соnstruсtiоn 520
MW Tароvаn-Vishnugаd рrоjeсt downstream.
Causes
There аre mаny hyроtheses сirсulаtingоn the роssible саuses оf the mаssive flооd on Februаry 7,
2021 in the Сhаmоli distriсt оf Uttаrаkhаndhаd killed 72 рeорle till nоw, with 205 рeорle still
missing.The exрerts believe thаt the disаster оriginаted аs а mаjоr snоw, iсe, аnd rосk аvаlаnсhe
аs а result оf Glасiаl Lаke Оutburst Flооd (GLОF). The sоurсe аreа, hаs been identified аs being
lосаted аrоund 3.25 km tо the nоrth оf Nаndа Ghunti рeаk (6,309 m).
6
Satellite images of Uttarakhand
The figure 2.4(a) and 2.4(b) illustrate satellite images of Uttarakhand on 2nd February 2021 and
4th February 2021. This image implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
Fig 2.4(a) 2 February 2021 Fig 2.4(b) 4 February 2021
2.2.1.5 Assam Flash Flood 2020
Floods are an annual occurrence in Assam. It occurs due to the increase in magnitude and
frequency of rainfall, rapid urbanization and inadequate water management practices.2020
Assam floods refers to the significant flood event of the Brahmaputra River due to tropical
monsoon climate, the state of Assam is prone to annual flooding.The reason for the excess
rainfall is attributed to Madden–Julian oscillation, thereby causing prolonged break-monsoon
conditions which decreases the rainfall in North West India and increases it in North East India.
By 21 July, the meteorological subdivision of Assam and Meghalaya had received rainfall of
1,164mm as compared to normal rainfall of 894mm which is an excess of nearly 30%. The
catchment areas of nearby states, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim also received excess rainfall
nearly to the tune of 16% and 45% respectively aggravating the flood situation.
Satellite images of Assam
The figure 2.5(a) and 2.5(b) illustrate satellite images of Assam on 18th May 2020 and 25th May
2020. This image implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
Fig 2.5(a)18 May 2020 Fig 2.5(b)25 May 2020
2.2.1.6 Maharashtra Flash Flood 2019
7
This flood occurred in the year 2019. The dam was constructed in around the year 2000. Around
9:30 p.m. on 2 July 2019, the Tiware dam failed which was overflowing after incessant rains
previous days. The water flooded at least seven villages situated downstream including
Bhendewadi, Daadar, Akle, Riktoli, Ovali, Kalkavne and Nandivase with about population of
3000. Several houses were washed away. At least 19 people died and four more went missing.
Heavy rains caused overflowing of reservoir. The part of wall got crack, it was destroyed by the
force of water and water inundated the land.
Effects
Due to occurrence of heavy floods in 2019, people around the flood area lost their
shelter,livelihood and agricultural lands.
Satellite images of Maharashtra

The figure 2.6(a) and 2.6(b) illustrate satellite images of Maharashtra on 21st June 2019 and 2nd
July 2019 .This images implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
Fig 2.6(a) 21 June 2019 Fig 2.6(b) 2 July 2019
2.2.1.7 China Flash Flood 2021
Henan is a central province of China and an important agricultural region, a comprehensive

transportation hinge, and a communication hub.In the last decade, the average annual
temperature was 12.9 ◦C to 16.5 ◦C, and the average annual precipitation was 464.2–1193.2 mm.
In the middle of July 2021, the province was hit by unusually heavy rainfall, which triggered
severe floods. The event was named the 7.20 Henan rainstorm. Weather stations around the
province logged record-breaking amounts of rainfall and on July 20, Zhengzhou, the provincial
capital, recorded 201.9 millimetres (7.95 in) of rainfall within an hour, the highest ever figure
recorded since measurements began in 1951.
Causes
The 2021 Henan Floods were the result of heavy rainfall in China's Henan Province. The
intensity of the floods was believed to have been exacerbated by extreme weather caused by
climate change in China.The subtropical high in the western Pacific and the continental high-
pressure area in the Sea of Japan and inland Northwest China contributed to the continuous
8
rainfall in the province. The region, in addition, is at the end of the subtropical high in mid-July,
which causes frequent downpours and thunderstorms
Effects
As of 2 August 2021, provincial authorities reported 302 deaths (292 in Zhengzhou), while over
50 were missing. The floods caused the evacuation of 815,000 people, and overall affected 14.5
million people around the province.In the city of Dengfeng, which also experienced flooding, an
aluminium alloy factory owned by Dengfeng Power Group suffered an explosion, but no human
casualties were reported. Total economic loss from the 2021 July floods is estimated to be at
least USD $24 billion. It burst the banks of rivers and overwhelmed dams, causing severe water
logging, traffic disruption, and power outages, and upending the lives of tens of millions.
Satellite images of China

The figure 2.1(a) and 2.1(b) illustrate satellite images of China on 13th July 2021 and 23rd July
2021. This images implies the cloudy sky on the days of Flash Floods.
Fig 2.7(a) 13 July 2021 Fig 2.7(b) 23 July 2021
2.2.2 Application on AI techniques to predict discharge
In this practical study, the study area is Moosa River or Muchukunda River or Musinuru or Musi
River is a tributary of the Krishna River in the Deccan Plateau flowing through Telangana state
in India. Musi is not a transboundary river. It originated in Anantagiri Hills and associated with
Krishna river.The length of the river is 240 km holds a bridge named Puranapul, Nagole Musi
Bridge.The Muchukunda River or Musi River was the cause of frequent flood devastation of
Hyderabad city until the early decades of the 20th century. On 28 September 1908, Hyderabad
was flooded, which included 17 inches of rain in one day, killing around 15,000 people.
2.2.2.1 Data collection
The raingauge station is located near to Damercherla village in Nalgonda district state of
Telangana. Central water Commission (CWC) was monitoring water quality at site Damercherla
since01/01/1980 at the downstream of Musi River ( 6.3 km above from Musi–Krishna
Sangamam at Wazirabad ).Daily rainfall of all the sub basins was extracted from these NRSC
website. Discharge data of Damercherla station in the basin was collected from the Central
Water Commission (CWC) and used for model calibration and validation. Discharge data of
9
1990=2000 was used for model calibration and 2000-2020 data was used for validation of the
model.The Fig 2.8 (a) signifies the map of telangana showing stretch of Musi river and fig 2.8
(b) signifies the catchment area of Musi river.The table 2.3 demonstrates maximum discharge
over the catchment area from 1998 to 2017.
Fig 2.8 (a) Map of Telangana

showing Musi River stretch Fig 2.8 (b) Musi River catchment
Table 2.3 The years considered for maximum discharge study
Years considered for study

1) 1998-99
61
jun jul aug
60 sept oct nov
dec jan feb
59 mar apr may
WL (in m)
58
57
56
55
54
36.8
34.6
37.2
35.6
30.8
30.1
30.0
26.4
28.5
27.0
27.0
21.5
26.0
25.0
19.0
16.9
18.4
20.2
15.0
14.5
14.2
10.5
10.0
10.9
12.4
11.6
11.6
6.5
6.1
6.0
Q (in m3/s)
Fig 2.9 Rating curve of 1998-99

The fig 2.9 shows the maximum discharge due to cyclones in North Indian Ocean from October
13 to 15, 1998.
10
2) 2000-01
58
jun jul aug sept
57.5
oct nov dec jan
57 feb mar apr may
WL (in m)
56.5
56
55.5
55
54.5
54
1.687
1.585
1.501
1.518
1.7
1.512
1.436
1.219
1.108
1.054
1.1
1.1
0.782
0.637
0.634
1.156
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.428
1.251
0.753
0.724
0.701
0.3
0.3
0.708
0.622
0.603
0.603
0.588
Q (in m3/s)

The fig 2.10 shows the maximum discharge due to heavy rainfall at Hyderabad on
23/08/2000.Fig 2.11 shows satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 23rd August
2000.The images implies cloudy sky over the catchment area.
Fig 2.11 Satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla in 23 August, 2000
3) 2008-09
59
jun jul aug sept
58 oct nov dec jan
feb mar apr may
57
WL (in m)
56
55
54
64.5
58.3
54.3
52.4
46.9
43.4
43.4
50.6
48.7
36.9
36.9
36.9
34.0
35.4
35.4
33.8
32.4
32.4
32.4
35.2
31.9
32.4
32.4
30.9
30.9
29.5
26.3
29.5
28.2
28.2
Q ( in m3/s)
The Fig2.12 shows the maximum discharge due to heavy monsoon rains in Andhra Pradesh and
Hyderabad on 10-11 of August..Fig 2.13 shows satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla
on 13th August 2008.The images implies cloudy sky over the catchment area.
11
Fig 2.13 Satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 13 August, 2008
4) 2009-10
64 Jun Jul Aug
Sept Oct Nov
62 Dec Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
WL (in m)
60
58
56
54
2.6 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.1 7.1 4.6 2.6 3.6 3.6
Q (in m3/s)
The Fig 2.14 shows the maximum discharge due to lifting of Nagarjuna Sagar gate on October
(05/10/2009). Fig 2.15 shows satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 5th October
Fig 2.15 Satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 05 October, 2009
5) 2013-14
61
jun jul aug sept
60 oct nov dec jan
59 feb mar apr may
WL (in m)
58
57
56
55
54
4.8 5.0 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.9 3.3 6.2 6.6 4.9
Q(m3/s)
12

The Fig 2.16 shows the maximum discharge due to heavy rains at Hyderabad on October
(26/10/2013)..Fig 2.17 shows satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 28th October
Fig 2.17 Satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 28 October, 2013
6) 2016-17
59
Jun Jul Aug
58 Sept Oct Nov
Dec Jan Feb
WL (in m)
57 Mar Apr May

56
55
54
0.9 1.3 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q(in m3/s)
The Fig 2.18 shows the maximum discharge due to heavy rainfall due to which maximum
discharge is observed on September (24/09/2016). Fig 2.19 shows satellite images of Hyderabad
and Damercherla on 25th September 2016.The images implies cloudy sky over the catchment
area.
Fig 2.19 Satellite images of Hyderabad and Damercherla on 25 September, 2016
By using the data given by the Central Water Commission (CWC), the Fig 2.20 and 2.21 are
plotted to determine the relation between the Precipitation and Discharge, Water Level and
Discharge at station.
13
Fig 2.20 Precipitation vs Discharge Fig 2.21 Water Level vs Discharge

The Fig 2.20 describes the scatter plot of Discharge with respect to the Precipitation at station
and the Fig 2.21 describes the scatter plot of Discharge with respect to Water Level at station
 The data is read by using pandas which is in csv format. The pandas package here converted
the dataset into the data frame. Numpy is imported to work with arrarys. Data frame shape
(df.shape) determined the dimensions of the dataset. Data frame head (df.head) determined
first five rows of the dataset by default.Data frame tail (df.tail) gives the last five rows of
the dataset by default.Data frame column (df.column) determined all the column names in
the dataset.
 The columns in the provided dataset are' PRECTOTCORR ', 'W_L', 'Q'. Now all the
columns are splitted in to two colums, Q in to variable f and x1,x2 variables (Prectotcorr and
Water level ) in to variable t using a function called iloc(),where Q is the predicted variable
using inputs of x1 and x2 using linear regression whose math intuition is based on
y=m(x1+x2)+c
 The data split into 71% and 29%, 71 percent of the data is used in the training phase and 29
percent for the testing phase.Null values are removed using Dropna function.
 Here the fit method is used to train the model to work with data and predict the Discharge.
 Linear regression is imported from the scikit learn library to measure the accuracy of the
model as r2, root mean squared error and mean squared error.
 The individual values of the r2 =0.7703456119493519
Mean squared error = 27.28115672864944
Root mean squared error = 52.23136675279466
 The rainfall, water level for which the discharge value is to be predicted should be added as
the last row of csv data set file. And after running the program, the discharge value is
displayed as Y_Prediction = array([84.75215745, 28.9410116 , 33.00520192, ...,
96.37844742, 92.54802484, 5.87180147]).
3 CONCLUSIONS
14
• It can be concluded that Flash floods are difficult to manage. Reducing the hazard requires
the best mix of structural measures and non-structural measures to reduce impacts due to
flash floods.
• From the case studies considered, we can say that it is impossible to anticipate natural
disasters such as flash floods. However, disaster preparedness plans and protocols in the
civil administration and public health systems could be very helpful in rescue and relief and
in reducing casualties and adverse impact on the human life and socio-economic conditions.
• In order to prevent life and economic loss from floods, some techniques need to be
developed for its prediction.
• The study aims to predict flash floods using AI technique by applying prepared datasets of
water level and rainfall intensity.
• For predicting discharge, linear regression technique was used in which a straight-line
equation was formed. Rainfall and water level are considered as x variables i.e., input
variables and discharge are considered as y variable i.e., output variable.
• The data set collected from CWC is split into 71% and 29%. 71 percent of the data is used in
the training phase and 29 percent for the testing phase. Thus, the equation framed, helps in
predicting the discharge value for given rainfall, water level input values.
4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge and give their warmest thanks and gratitude to the Head of the AI
Department, Dr. A. Obulesh for his support in our collaborative work. We would like to thank Ms. K
Chithra, 3rd year student of AI department for her efforts in explaining the AI technique.
5 REFERENCES
• Dhar, O. N., & Nandargi, S. (2000). A study of floods in the Brahmaputra basin in India. International
Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 20(7), 771-781.
• Ghosh, S. (2013). Estimation of flash flood magnitude and flood risk in the lower segment of Damodar
River basin, India. Int J Geol Earth Environ Sci, 3(2), 97-114.
• BRAHMA, F. (2020). Tibetan Youth Activism Role of Government-in-Exile 1959-1976.
• Rangari, V. A., Bhatt, C. M., Patel, A. K., & Umamahesh, N. V. (2022). Geo-Spatial Analysis of
October 2020 Hyderabad Flood. In Innovative Trends in Hydrological and Environmental
Systems (pp. 33-42). Springer, Singapore.
• Guo, Y., Wu, Y., Wen, B., Huang, W., Ju, K., Gao, Y., & Li, S. (2020). Floods in China, COVID-19,
and climate change. The Lancet Planetary Health, 4(10), e443-e444.
• https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/
• CWC data :http://cwc.gov.in/
• IMD - Indian Meteorological Department. (2018). Hydrometeorological services in IMD. Delhi:
Government of India.
• MHA Report, 2013. A note on the recent devastation in Uttarakhand and Government measures to
tackle this natural disaster in Uttarakhand. October, 2013.
• Ahmed, Z., Rao, D. R. M., Reddy, K. R. M. and Raj, Y. E., Urban flooding – case study of Hyderabad.
Global J. Eng. Des. Technol., 2013, 2(4), 63–66.
15
Groundwater modeling and identification of recharge potential zones using Modflow

and GIS
Kumar, A. , Kumari S.2, Shankar V.3
1
1
PG Student, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Hamirpur,
Himachal Pradesh-177005, INDIA
2
PhD Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Hamirpur,
Himachal Pradesh - 177005, INDIA
3
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology,
Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh - 177005, INDIA
INDIA
Email: abhidogra25@gmail.com, kumarisuman1993@gmail.com, vsdogra@nith.ac.in
Groundwater is a valuable natural resource that contributes considerably to the overall yearly
supply of water. However, overexploitation has significantly reduced groundwater supply and,
in certain cases, caused soil subsidence. Uncontrolled groundwater extraction and insufficient
aquifer recharge is the main cause of groundwater depletion across the globe. As a result,
groundwater management and watershed-level conservation have become more crucial
globally. Assessing the potential zones of groundwater recharge is critical for water quality
preservation and system management. In this study, groundwater assessment and spatial
modeling has been performed using “MODFLOW” and GIS. The primary goal of the study is
to create a groundwater recharge potential zone map and identify the locations for constructing
artificial recharge structures in the study area i.e., Chamba district of Himachal Pradesh in
northern India. The groundwater recharge potential zones were identified by employing several
basin thematic maps such as geology, geomorphology, soil, drainage, slope factor, and land
use/land cover in GIS. Further, MODFLOW was used to create the groundwater flow model
of the study area. To validate the results of spatial modeling, the groundwater flow vector map
was developed and superimposed on the potential zone map. The study substantiates that the
provision of rainwater harvesting structures at recharge potential zones augments the
groundwater level and subsequently reduces stress on the aquifer.
Keywords: GIS, Groundwater management, Groundwater modeling, Modflow, Recharge

potential
1. Introduction
Most of the world's population relies on groundwater to meet their daily water needs.
Uncontrolled pumping and insufficient recharging of aquifers are the primary causes of
groundwater depletion in many regions. Groundwater is a vital source of potable water. Due to
the non-scientific exploitation of groundwater for a variety of purposes, the water table is
rapidly eroding with the passage of time. These phenomena are noticed only in regions with
fresh groundwater. Finding the groundwater potential zones, either at the aquifer or watershed
level, is the current trend to place rainfall harvesting structures and increase local groundwater.
Installing rainwater collection systems in strategic locations can help replenish local aquifers.
New methods, such as geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and
Page 1
numerical modeling (NM), can aid in the efficient and precise selection of the proper place in
this context.
The application of geographic information systems (GIS) to process-based groundwater
models can result in a powerful resource for dealing with, storing, manipulating, visualizing,
and disseminating hydrogeological data. Groundwater modeling information can be broken
down into four distinct types of information: The four primary factors to consider are: (1) the
aquifer system stress factor, (2) the aquifer system geometry, (3) the hydrogeological
parameters, and (4) the key measured variables.
Due to developments in computer technology, mathematical modeling is becoming
increasingly rapid and precise today. MODFLOW, created by the USGS (McDonald and
Harbaugh, 1988), is the most used software among groundwater modelers. Using MODFLOW,
several case studies were conducted to comprehend and forecast groundwater behavior.

GIS Technology
The term "geographic information system" (GIS) refers to a type of software that effectively
links visual data with attribute data kept in a database. Assessing groundwater sensitivity to
pollution, identifying artificial recharge sites, modeling subsurface flow and pollution, and
mapping groundwater quality are all examples of applications where GIS has proven to be an
excellent tool for generating solutions to water resources problems.
MODFLOW
The Visual MODFLOW is organized into three primary sections: input, run, and output. The
input portion of Visual MODFLOW is utilized to
Pumping well, observation well, and attribute definitions for 3D finite difference grids. Zones
of soil properties are defined, and locations and characteristics of border conditions are
assigned.
The software has the following key functions the combination of advanced analytical
capabilities and a logical menu structure.
Simulate the model, apply model characteristics and boundary conditions, calibrate the model
using manual or automated procedures, and visualize the findings with 2D or 3D visuals.
The present Chamba district was established on November 1, 1966. It is bordered on the north-
west by Jammu and Kashmir, on the north-east and east by the Ladakh area of Jammu and
Kashmir state and Lahaul and Bara-Bangal area of Himachal Pradesh, and on the south-east
and south by District Kangra of Himachal Pradesh and District Gurdaspur of Punjab. The
district is located between 32° 11 30" and 33° 13 06" north latitude and 75° 49 00" and 77° 03
30" east longitude. Fig. 1.
The area of the district is 6,522 square kilometers, and Chamba serves as its capital. In the
district, there are 1591 settlements. The district comprises six subdistricts: Chamba, Churah,
Pangi, Bharmaur, Dalhousie, and Chowari. There are 7 tehsils [Chamba, Churah, Salooni,
Pangi, Bharmaur, Dahlhousie, Bhatiyat] & 3 sub-tehsils [Bhallai, Holi, Sihunta]. In addition,
for purposes of development, the district has been divided into seven CD blocks, namely
Chamba, Mehla, Bharmour, Tissa, Salooni, Pangi, and Bhatiyat.
Page 2
The Ravi is the heart and soul of the Chamba people. With its tributaries, it drains the entire
Chamba valley between Dhauladhar and Pangi, the largest and most important area of the
district. Bara Bangahal near Dhauladhar is where the river begins. Main Ravi tributaries are
Budhil, Tundah, Beljedi, Sal, Siul, Siowa. River Chenab or Chandrabhaga rises from the
highlands of Baralacha pass by two heads, the Chandra and the Bhaga. Chenab is the name of
the river after these two sibling streams meet near Tandi.
Chamba lacks major lakes. Khajjiar Lake, Manimahesh Lake, Chamera Lake, Lama Dal,
Gadasru Lake, Maha Kali Dal exist.
.
The daily rainfall data for seventeen rain gauge stations were collected from India
Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune and the daily discharge data for three stream gauging
sites were obtained from Central Water Commission (CWC), Dharmshala, India.
Figure1( Index map of study area)

(Source -GROUND WATER INFORMATION BOOKLET CHAMBA DISTRICT)
Page 3
CLIMATE & RAINFALL
The district's climate ranges from semi-tropical to semi-arctic. Winter lasts from December to
February, summer from March to June, and rainy months from July to September. The wettest
months in the region are July through September.
Hydrogeomorphology
Various hydrogeomorphic units can be delineated from satellite imagery using visual
interpretation. Recharge, transfer, and discharge of groundwater in the basin are governed by
its geomorphology, geology, and structural patterns. To pinpoint the locations of different
geomorphic units and the occurrence of groundwater in each one, hydro-geomorphological
maps are needed.
Model design
This groundwater flow equation, along with the specification of flow and/or initial head
conditions at the borders, comprises a mathematical model of the aquifer system and represents
groundwater flow under non-equilibrium conditions in a heterogeneous and isotropic medium.
The groundwater flow equation is typically solved using numerical methods. This research
made use of mudflow, a piece of software originally created by USGS researchers McDonald
and Harbaugh in 1988. Processing both before and after the model is input.
Hydraulic conductivity
Hydraulic conductivity in Visual MODFLOW 2011 was the hydraulic conductivity along
model rows. For hydraulic conductivity along model columns, it was multiplied by an
anisotropic factor. Model features of the aquifers in the study area are reflected in the model's
hydraulic conductivity. MODFLOW needed the input of a vertical transmission or leakage
term, sometimes known as vertical leaking, between two model layers in order to perform
multi-layer flow simulations. To determine vertical leakage, the software used vertical
hydraulic conductivities and layer thickness.
Page 4
3. Methodology Adopted for ANALYSIS
Satellite Data INTERPRETATION

SOI Toposheet AND PREPARATION
Geology Map OF LAYERS
Literature Soil Map
Geology
Land use
Slope
Preparation of Georeferenced
Relative Relief
Data
Dissection Index
Watershed Boundary
Geomorphology
Demarcation
Drainage Density
Field Investigation
Drainage Frequency
Drainage Texture
Data Integration Using ArcGIS
Environment
Final GIS database
Creation
Groundwater Potential Map

Groundwater Modeling By
MODFLOW
Validation and Comparison of

Results
Fig. 2
Flow chart showing the methodology adopted to develop groundwater potential zone map
Page 5
RESULTING MAPS
Fig.3
Slope Map of Study Area
Slope Map
Slope affects land-use shape and suitability, which hinders agriculture in different topographies
(Worqlul et al. 2017; Zolekar and Bhagat 2015). The slope map was created from Cartosat
DEM and categorized into seven IMSD (Integrated Mission for Sustainable Development
1995) classifications (Fig 2). The slope affects soil depth, GM, LULC, and run-off in this study
(Bandyopadhyay et al. 2009; Kadam et al. 2018; Tsui et al. 2004; Sahu et al. 2018). Due to
steep regions with low GWPs and strong run-off and infiltration, the southwest has a high slope.
Due to practically flat terrain, gentle is ranked higher than steep, which has relatively high run-
off.
Page 6
Fig. 4
Land Use Land Cover Map
The present study is mostly pediment–pediplain with SE–NW-trending striking ridges, residual
hills, and heavy reserve forest trending SW–NE in the diagonal half. Hillocks, mounds, ridges,
reserve forests, and wasteland with plants and scrubs cover the rest of the territory, which is
largely used for agriculture and some human settlements. This area grows wet crops, seasonal
crops, and groundwater-dependent crops (Rajasekhar et al. 2018b). This semi-arid study shows
Page 7
seven LULC patterns (Fig.4). Run-off and evapotranspiration in the research region affect
LULC because they indicate suitable rainwater-harvesting structures. The good GWPs come
from the region's cultivation of groundnuts, red grams, Bengal grams, paddy, cotton, and
vegetables. Agricultural fields and greenery are the best places to find groundwater.
Wastelands and built-up areas have low groundwater potential, while sandy fields have high
GWPs. Table 1 shows the LULC features of Chamba.
LULC Features of Study Area Table 1
S. No. Category Area

1 Land use Forest Cover 272
2 Barren & Uncultivated land 5.5
3 Permanent pasture 350.8
4 Another fallow land 11.8
5 Cultivable Land 44.8
TOTAL 684.9
DRAINAGE DENSITY MAP

Fig.5
Drainage Density
Since DD is inversely related to permeability, it helps identify GWPZs. The DD map is made
using this study's drainage map (Fig. 4). High DD values favor run-off and poor GWP. The
drainage layer of the present study is used to prepare a DD map to identify GWPZs, as DD is
Page 8
an inverse feature of permeability. Landscape, geomorphological patterns, underlying geology,

and land use are directly related to drainage density. Groundwater storage capacity-protected
areas improve stream order (Horton 1932, 1945).
Fig. 6
Soil Map of Study Area
Gritty sandy loam soils have a high sand content. Sandy loam soils drain fast but cannot contain
much water or nutrients for plants Fig.6. Sand particles determine the size of sandy loam grains,
which range from fine to coarse. Silt, sand, and clay content classify soils. Soil qualities depend
on particle size. Sand grains measure 0.05–2 mm. Silt granules measure 0.002–0.05 mm. Clay
granules are less than 0.002 mm. Sand, silt, and clay produce loam. Sandy loam is loam and
sand.
Page 9
Fig. 7
(Source: GROUND WATER INFORMATION BOOKLET CHAMBA DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH)
Geology Map
Paleozoic to Triassic hard rock formations underlie most of the area fig. 7. Older rocks lack
primary porosity. Joints, cracks, and schistose planes allow groundwater to travel through these
rocks. Groundwater moves through pore spaces between sand gravel and tallus material in
younger Tertiary rocks and terrace deposits along major rivers and khads.
The hill region has no ground water reservoir due to steep rising hills with intervening dissected
valleys and the consolidated character and placement of rock formation. Due to steep slopes,
rain and snow runoff this rocky terrain into a dense network of streams and nallahs. During this
process, some water percolates into the underlying rocks. Gravity causes this water to travel
underground and surface as springs on down slopes. During the survey, downstream springs
(lower level) dried out later than upstream springs during dry season. Springs were
concentrated along rivers and khads. These khads and rivers use spring water for irrigation and
Page 10
domestic use.
Groundwater is usually semi-confined. State Irrigation and Public Health Department drilled
motorized handpumps. These handpumps average 35.00–70.12 m bgl. Discharges range
from.25 to.75 lps and water levels range from 10 to 30 mbgl. The valley fill deposits of sand,
gravel, pebbles, and cobbles follow the water table.
Hydrogeology
Fig. 8
(Source: GROUND WATER INFORMATION BOOKLET CHAMBA DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH)
In addition to influent seepage from rivers and inflow from upland areas, snowfall/precipitation
is the primary source of groundwater recharge, whereas discharge from groundwater occurs
mostly in the form of springs and base flow in streams, etc.
Extremely steep slopes characterize the district's rugged topography. The valley regions are
secluded, deep, and narrow. Fig. 7. As a result of their discontinuous aquifer systems, these
regions are excluded from estimates of the groundwater resources.
Groundwater Potential Zoning

The output shall comprise multiple kinds of groundwater potential zones, including Excellent,
Good, Moderate, Poor, and Very Poor Zones. Good potential zones are characterized by
adequate surface and subsurface characteristics, such as the presence of lineaments and
permeable soil forms. According to the groundwater potential map, the mild slope has greater
groundwater potential. Very good potential zones with favorable surface and subsurface
Page 11
conditions, such as the presence of lineaments, permeable formations, and proximity to

recharge factors such as streams, provide a favorable environment for enhanced water yield
and discharge.
Fig.9
Potential Zone Map of Chamba
Rank and weight for different parameters of groundwater potential zone (Table. 2)
Page 12
Sl No. Parameter Classes Ran Weight

k
1. Geomorphology Valley 5 16
Lower plateau 4
Denudational hills 2
Flood plain 5
Structural hills 2
Residual hills 4
2. Slope(degrees) Nearly level (0-5.026317) 5 19
Very gently sloping 4
(5.02631-9.494)
Gently Sloping 3
(9.4941-
14.799712)
Moderately Sloping 2
(14.799-22.897)
Strong Sloping 1
(22.8976-
71.206161)
3. Drainage density Very low (0-53.90919525) 5 11
(km/km 2) Low (53.90919525- 4
138.28880)
Medium (138.28880- 3
234.38780)
High (234.38780- 2
351.5817081)
Very high (351.58170- 1
597.6889)
4. Lineament Very low (0-0.259872993) 1 9
density(Km/K m2) Low (0.2598729- 2
0.7337590)
Medium (0.733759- 3
1.13885)
High (1.138855-1.5210213) 4
Very high (1.52102- 5
1.94904)
5. Land cover use/lan Built up land 4 13
d Paddy area 4
Rocky area 1
Mixed crop 4
Page 13
Forest 2
Cultivable waste land 2
Waterbody 5
6. Rainfall(mm) Moderate (2709.62- 3 22
2958.413)
High (2958.413-3134.41) 4
Very High (3134.41- 5
3436.25)
7. Geology Basic rocks 3 4
Charnockite 3
Khondalite 4
Migmatite complex 3
8. Soil Hilly soil 2 6
Laterite 4
Alluvium 5
Table 2
The groundwater flow modeling has been carried out using Visual Modflow Flex
developed by Waterloo Hydrologic Software Inc. MODFLOW output provides contours of
head equipotential, head difference, drawdown, elevation, net recharge, and water table. It
also provides graphs of calculated vs. observed heads, calibration of the residual histogram,
head vs. time, and drawdown vs. time. The model output also provides velocity vectors
with the direction of flow. By using the input and output screen the model is calibrated.
From the results obtained it was seen that a major part of the study area shows a decline in
subsurface water level and very few locations showed a rise in water level.
5. Conclusions
In hydrology and water resource management, the rapid development of computer technology
has continued to improve modeling techniques. The present work adequately emphasizes the
integration of GIS techniques with MODFLOW and provides an up-to-date evaluation of the
application of these two growing coupling approaches in groundwater hydrology.
When applied carefully for irrigation and drinking water, the given technique has proven to be
an effective tool for understanding groundwater behavior and determining the optimum
management practices at the watershed level. As the study shows, using the wells in the
potential zones can relieve some of the pressure on the watershed.
The groundwater model helps justify the selection of potential zones and provides a more
realistic approach to their utilization, according to the study. The groundwater model also
showed how rainfall collection structures affected the groundwater regime. The results show
that these structures slow groundwater level decline. With optimization approaches, the model
can assess additional scenarios in the future.
Page 14
Acknowledgments
The authors are also thankful to the Central Groundwater Board, North Himalayan Region,
Dharmshala, and State Groundwater Board of Himachal Pradesh.
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Page 16
Climate Change Impact on Rice Cultivation in

Palakkad Region, Kerala
Sreeshna T. R.1, P. Athira. 2

1
MS Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad,
India – 678557; Email: 102103002@smail.iitpkd.ac.in
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology
Palakkad, India – 678557; Email: athira@iitpkd.ac.in
Abstract
Climate change has a significant impact on water availability and crop yield. This paper
analyses the impact of climate change on water availability for rice cultivation with respect to
the blue water and green water concepts. The Malampuzha command area in Palakkad district,
Kerala, has been considered for the study. Palakkad district in Kerala is considered to be a
climate change hotspot and is famous for its rice cultivation. The region contributes around
40% of the rice production in Kerala and thus amplifies the significance of this study. The
green water and blue water use in the study area has been estimated using the SWAT
hydrological model for the Kharif (Virippu) and Rabi (Mundakan) seasons, considering the
relevance of management practices and contributions from eight dams. The crop yield has been
estimated for the short-span rice cultivar, Jyothi, using the DSSAT CERES rice model. The
rice yield, green water, and blue water components for the respective models were simulated
using climate data from EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM1.2-LR, and ACCESS-ESM1.5 GCMs
from 2016 to 2100 under two scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways, ssp245 and ssp585.
The availability of water for rice cultivation has been quantified based on the projected water
footprint at taluk level, which considered five taluks covering the area, named Alathur, Chittur,
Ottapalam, Palakkad, and Talappilly. The results show an increase in the blue and green water
footprint in future under all the GCMs and scenarios considered. The results indicate the
importance of developing adaptation policies with respect to the spatial and temporal
heterogeneity of water availability and crop yield under changing climate.
Keywords: SWAT Hydrological Model, DSSAT CERES Rice model, Green Water, Blue
Water, Water Footprint
1. Introduction
Over the years climate change has been showing an increasing trend and imposing serious
impacts on the hydrological cycle. The major cause leading to climate change could be
attributed to anthropogenic factors which lead to an increased emission rate of greenhouse
gases which in turn causes the whole imbalance. The change in climate leads to irregular trends
in precipitation, temperature, and other climatic factors, which significantly affect water
availability. With about 85% of total available water being used for agricultural purposes, the
agricultural sector becomes the most vulnerable one to the impacts of climate change in India.
Page 1
Agriculture is the prime source of income for the major population and thus hits the economy
with a negative impact. The climate change impact studies on rice cultivation have been
conducted in different parts of the world since rice is the staple food for 70-80% of the world
population (Shreshta et al., 2014; Ohta et al., 2007; Tao et al., 2012). The lack of water
availability is one major concern that significantly influences rice production since it is a water-
intensive crop. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that the
rainfall patterns in the Northern Hemisphere will change progressively and adversely affect the
land and water availability for rice cultivation (Nyugen et al., 2002). The rise in temperature
will significantly influence the rice yield, crop duration, and growth pattern. The studies on
rice productivity under global warming have reported that there will be a reduction in rice
productivity with an increase in temperature (Horie et al., 2019). The adaptation and mitigation
measures have to be implemented to sustain the rice cultivation in the changing climate. The
irregular pattern of rainfall and temperature due to climate change sometimes leads to
catastrophic events like floods and droughts.
Kerala has witnessed extreme rainfall events in the last decade. Palakkad district in Kerala is
considered to be a climate change hotspot as per the State Climate Change Action Council and
Palakkad is famous for its rice cultivation. The region contributes around 40% of the rice
production in Kerala. The farmers in this region use high yield varieties of wet Paddy with an
average duration of 110 days. The Kharif season is a rainfed cultivation period in the command
area. The Malampuzha Irrigation Project is the major source of water for the Rabi and Summer
crops. There is a significant reduction in the rice cultivation area from 111,029 Ha to 77,121
Ha in the last 15 years in Palakkad (Department of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Kerala).
The rice production has reduced by 17% in this time period. The agricultural production in the
region is dependent on the annual rainfall availability. The analysis of climatic data in the
region indicated that there is a significant reduction in the long-term rainfall and the frequency
of occurrence of extreme events in the region has significantly increased in the recent decades
(George and Athira, 2020). The region experienced 3 extreme drought situations and 3 extreme
floods after the year 2000. The analysis of temperature data from 1969-2005 indicates that
there is around 10C rise in the average temperature over this period of 35 years. These
fluctuations in the temperature and rainfall patterns had adversely impacted the agricultural
production of the region. Appropriate analysis of water availability and usage thus becomes a
relevant topic.
Water footprint can be considered as an apt indicator for the assessment of water use. The
indicator accounts for multidimensionality as well as the dynamic variability of water usage.
Water footprint comprise of three components, green water footprint, blue water footprint and
grey water footprint which altogether gives an accountability for the water consumption and
pollution. The blue water component accounts for the surface and groundwater contribution
(Hoekstra et al., 2011). The green water component accounts for the rainwater consumption
and the grey water component accounts for the amount of freshwater required to assimilate
pollutants which enters the freshwater bodies (Aldaya et al., 2012). The concept of consumptive
water footprint for a crop can be accounted by green and blue water components (Falkenmark
and Rockstrom, 2004). Several methods have been implemented to evaluate the green water
and blue water component. Hydrological models like SWAT, WaSiM, UHP-HRU, HBV-light
Page 2
are used for evaluating the green and blue water availability under climate change (Luo et al.,
2016, Badou et al., 2018, Fazeli Farsani et al., 2018). Another method for quantifying blue and
green water footprint was using crop models like CROPWAT and Aquacrop (Mekonnen and
Hoekstra, 2011, Yesilkoy et al, 2020). Also a physically based method was developed to
differentiate the blue and green water evaporation and transpiration with respect to the blue
and green water in each soil layer (Hoekstra and Arjen, 2019). The increasing number of studies
related to water footprint indicates the importance of the concept and its relevance. In this study
our objective is to assess the green and blue water footprint for paddy cultivation in
Malampuzha command area in Palakkad district, Kerala and account for the spatial and
temporal variation of the blue and green water footprint due to change in climate.
2.1 Methodology
A flow chart of the methodology involved in the study is shown in Figure 1. The study was
carried out using an integrated modeling framework comprising the SWAT hydrological model
and DSSAT crop model. The blue water and green water components are evaluated using the
SWAT model and the rice yield in the study area is evaluated using the DSSAT model, which
accounts for the management practices and irrigation application. The SWAT plant module is
ignored to account for the yield as DSSAT is more efficient in terms of yield determination
and has the ability to add and modify different crop management properties and the
environment. The study was carried out at a seasonal spatial extent, accounting for the major
rice cultivation seasons, rabi and kharif in the study area.
SWAT DSSAT
WYLD + GW_RCHG - GW_Q ET + SW KHARIF RABI
BW GW RICE YIELD
3 GCMS (6 SCENARIOS)
GW OR BW FLOW
GW AND BW FOOTPRINT 𝑊𝐹 =
EVALUATION CROP YIELD
ArcGIS
SPATIAL MAP FOR GW AND BW FOOTPRINT

EVALUATION
Figure 1 Methodology: Integrated model framework
The outputs from both the models are combined together to evaluate the blue and green water
Page 3
footprint which accounts for the rice cultivation in the study area. An overview of each
component involved in the integrated modeling framework is provided in the following
sections.
2.2 SWAT Hydrological model
The SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) model is a continuous, process based semi-
distributed river basin model. The model divides the watershed into different subbasins based
on topography and further the subbasins are divided into hydrological response units (HRUs)
based on landuse, soil and slope. The basic input data requirement for SWAT are the digital
elevation model (DEM), soil, landuse and climate data. The major output from SWAT are
streamflow, sediment and nutrients. Hydrological simulations in SWAT are carried out in land
phase and routing phase wherein the water balance equation for each HRU governing the land
phase in SWAT hydrological model (Neitsch et al., 2011) is given as in Equation (1)
𝑡
𝑆𝑊𝑡 = 𝑆𝑊𝑜 + ∑(𝑅𝑑𝑎𝑦 − 𝑄𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓 − 𝐸𝑎 −𝑊𝑠𝑒𝑒𝑝 − 𝑄𝑔𝑤 ) (1)

𝑖=1
where, SWt is the final soil water content (mm); SWo is the initial water content (mm), t is the
time (days), Rday is the amount of precipitation on day i (mm), Qsurf is the amount of surface
runoff on day i (mm), Ea is the amount of evapotranspiration on day i (mm), Wseep is the amount
of water entering the vadose zone from the soil profile on day i (mm), and Qgw: the amount of
return flow on day i (mm).
SWAT model has been used for evaluating the green water and blue water component in the
watershed. Blue water flow is taken as the sum of wateryield (WYLD in SWAT) and ground
water storage (difference between the components GW_RCHG and GW_Q in SWAT).
Similarly, green water flow is accounted by the evapotranspiration component (ET) in SWAT
(Jeyrani et al, 2021). The model has been setup considering the source of water for the
agricultural landuse in Malampuzha command area to be from the Malampuzha reservoir.
2.2.1 Calibration and Validation
The SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainity Fitting) program in SWAT-CUP was used for calibration
and validation of the SWAT model setup by comparing the stream discharge in the outlet of
the watershed with the measured discharge data. The model was calibrated from 2011 to 2016
and validated from 2017 to 2019. The model performances after the calibration and validation
analysis was performed by comparing the simulated and measured discharge values at outlet
using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE)
2.3 DSSAT CERES-Rice Crop Model
DSSAT is a software application program which has solar radiation driven crop simulation
models for over 42 crops. Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model is one
Page 4
among the cropping system model which is capable of evaluating the rice crop growth, biomass
and yield under the impact of climate change and different management practices. The present
study utilizes the CERES-Rice crop model for analyzing the impact of climate change in rice
cultivation for Jyothi, which is a short duration rice cultivar. The basic inputs are weather data,
soil and crop management data. The crop genetic information, which includes the cultivar
information has to be provided in the crop species file in DSSAT.
The DSSAT model has been setup for six scenarios (3 GCMs with scenarios ssp245 and ssp585
scenarios each). The model has been setup for both kharif (rainfed) and rabi(irrigated) seasons.
The irrigation is governed by the Malampuzha reservoir release. The major soil properties have
been collected from the Agricultural Department Palakkad. The management practices and
irrigation scheduling has been fixed by considering the data collected based on the general
practice followed in the area for the rice cultivar from Kerala Agricultural University Portal
(http://www.celkau.in).
2.4 Climate Change Scenario
The future climatic conditions are projected using general circulation models (GCMs) which
are developed by various research institutes around the world. This study utilizes future
simulations of 3 downscaled GCMs, EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM1.2-LR, and ACCESS-
ESM1.5 from CMIP6 (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6) under two scenarios of shared
socioeconomic pathways, ssp245 and ssp585. The time window considered for the study ranges
from 2016 to 2100.
2.5.1 Malampuzha Command Area
The study area is the Malampuzha command area (463 km2) which is located in the lower hills
of Western Ghats in Palakkad district at a latitude between 10 37 and 10 53 N and longitude
between 76 24 and 76 51 E in Kerala, India. The Malampuzha reservoir, which is one of the
largest reservoir in Kerala is the major water contributor to study area along with seven other
reservoirs, namely Chulliyar, Pothundi, Meenkara, Mangalam, Walayar, Aliyar and
Thirumoorthy. The map representing the Study area is shown in Figure 2.
The daily rainfall gridded data of 0.25⁰x0.25⁰ resolution and temperature gridded data of 1⁰x1⁰
resolution were collected from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune and the daily
discharge data for one stream gauging site was collected from Cheruthuruthy station, Kerala,
India. The SWAT model used a 30m x 30m grid size DEM from bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in, landuse
map of the year 2015 and FAO soil map for setting up the model. The details about the soil
properties and management practices were obtained from the Agricultural department,
Palakkad.
Page 5
Figure 2 Map of study area, (a) represents the watershed delineated considering the 8 reservoirs
relevant for the study area and (b) represents the Malampuzha command area with five Taluks
(Alathur, Chittur, Ottapalam, Palakkad, Talappilly) distributed across the area.
3.1 Calibration and Validation
The SWAT model was setup for a period from 2009 to 2018 by providing a warmup period of
two years. The watershed (Figure 2) was delineated by considering the contribution of
discharge from the eight surrounding reservoirs to the Bharathapuzha river network which
enters the Malampuzha command area. CN2, CH_N2, CH_K2, ESCO, SURLAG,
ALPHA_BF, SOL_AWC and HRU_SLP were the sensitive parameters obtained by
conducting the SWAT-CUP parameter sensitivity analysis. The R2 and NSE for the calibration
period (2011-2016) were 0.59 and 0.58, respectively and for validation period (2017-2018)
were 0.71 and 0.66, respectively. Thus, the model setup proved to be appropriate for the study.
The measured and simulated discharge values at the watershed outlet during calibration period
is shown in Figure 3.
Page 6
SWAT-CUP Calibration observed simulated

1800
1600
1400
1200
Discharge
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2/26/2011
6/6/2011
9/14/2011
4/1/2012
7/10/2012
1/26/2013
5/6/2013
8/14/2013
3/2/2014
6/10/2014
9/18/2014
4/6/2015
7/15/2015
1/31/2016
5/10/2016
8/18/2016
3/6/2017
6/14/2017
11/18/2010
12/23/2011
10/18/2012
11/22/2013
12/27/2014
10/23/2015
11/26/2016
Duration
Figure 3 Comparison of Observed and simulated discharge at Cheruthuruthy outlet during
Calibration (2011-2016)
3.2 Green Water Flow and Blue Water Flow
A detailed analysis has been carried out on a regional scale for green and blue water flow
assessment for three GCMs (ACCESS-ESM1-5, EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM1-2-LR) under two
scenarios each, ssp245 and ssp585. The blue and green water flow assessment has been carried
out at seasonal scale (rabi and kharif season) considering only the agricultural water use for all
the three GCMs. The dynamic variation of blue water flow under kharif has been shown in
Figure 4 for the GCM EC-Earth3-Veg under ssp245 scenario. The study area has been
classified into 7 classes based on the blue water and green water flow value of a drought year
(2016) and a flood year (2018) as reference. The spatial map shows an increase in blue water
flow for paddy cultivation in kharif season in future. The low blue water flow in 2016 complies
with the occurrence of drought reported in Kerala in 2016. The increase in rainfall during kharif
season contributes to the replenishment of surface and groundwater sources for paddy
cultivation and thus contributes towards higher blue water flow in future. In the year 2016
highest use of blue water source for paddy cultivation has been observed in Palakkad and
Alathur taluk which in future has been spread across all the taluks.
Similarly Figure 5 shows the variation in blue water flow in agricultural production during rabi
season under ssp245 for GCM, EC-Earth3-Veg. As rabi season marks an end for the rainfed
paddy cultivation condition, the blue water flow component decreases. The decline in rainfall
and more dry condition during rabi season contributes towards the decline in blue water flow
component in the study area in future. Palakkad taluk shows the highest value of blue water
flow in 2016. The blue water flow is observed to be low during rabi season in the future years
in all the considered taluks. Similar results were observed for all the GCMs and scenarios
considered.
Page 7
Figure 4 Blue water flow distribution for agricultural production in kharif season for the years
(a) 2016 (b) 2046 (c) 2076 (d) 2100.
Figure 6 shows the variation in green water flow across the five taluks during kharif season.
The green water flow is contributed by rainfall in the study area. The historical year 2016,
being a drought year contributes less amount of rainfall and thus lower value of green water
flow. But in future simulations due to increasing trend of climatic variables like temperature
and rainfall, the evapotranspiration rate increases, thus contributing more towards the green
water flow. Highest increase in green water is observed in major regions of Alathur and
Palakkad taluk, while a lower range of green water component is observed in Chittur and in
major portion of Talappilly and Ottapalam. The green water component increases in all taluks
by the year 2100. Also, the kharif season contributes more rainfall and thus will have more
share of green water flow component compared to the rabi season (Figure 7).
Similarly, Figure 7 shows the green water flow distribution during rabi season. Here the value
of green water flow decreases in future over all the taluks due to lack of rainfall during rabi
season. The highest decline is observed in regions of Palakkad, Talappilly and Ottapalam
taluks. These varying trend of green and blue water flow across the taluks at different temporal
scale shows the significance of climate change and its impact on the agriculture sector of
Page 8
Malampuzha command area.
Figure 5 Blue water flow distribution for agricultural production in rabi season for the years
(a) 2016 (b) 2046 (c) 2076 (d) 2100.
3.3 Water Footprint for Rice Production
The green and blue water footprint for rice production in the Malampuzha command area is
evaluated using an integrated framework comprising of SWAT and DSSAT model. The water
footprint was got by dividing the blue water flow and green water flow components from
SWAT model with the DSSAT model output which is the yield. The water footprint assessment
with respect to green and blue water footprint also gives an idea about the water security in the
considered region. The crop yield was simulated under six scenarios and was observed to be
having a decreasing trend in all the cases. Figure 8 shows the decreasing trend of crop yield in
both kharif and rabi season under the GCM EC-Earth3-Veg under ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios
respectively. The water footprint assessment was carried out for all the three GCMs under two
scenarios each for kharif and rabi season. Figure 10 and Figure 11 show the variation of blue
water footprint and green water footprint simulated by GCM EC-Earth3-Veg under ssp245
scenario in Malampuzha command area. The spatial map representing the blue water footprint
Page 9
for kharif (Figure 10) shows an increase in the blue water footprint as the years passes by, thus
agrees with the increased use blue water flow in future as depicted in Figure 4. Another reason
is the decrease in rice yield as shown in Figure 8. The rice yield is thus an important aspect in
governing the water footprint. Major portions of Palakkad taluk have the highest blue water
footprint followed by a small portion of Alathur taluk. Comparatively lower values of blue
water footprint were observed in Ottapalam and Talappilly taluks. Similar results were obtained
for the blue water footprint assessment of the remaining GCMs as well.
Figure 6 Green water flow distribution for agricultural production in kharif season for the years
(a) 2016 (b) 2046 (c) 2076 (d) 2100.
Page 10
Figure 7 Green water flow distribution for agricultural production in rabi season for the years
(a) 2016 (b) 2046 (c) 2076 (d) 2100.
EC-Earth-Veg ssp245 kharif rabi

4500
4000
Rice yield (kg/ha)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Years
Figure 8 Rice yield simulated for Jyothi cultivar under GCM EC-Earth-Veg ssp585
Page 11
ec-earth-veg ssp 5-8.5 kharif rabi

4500
4000
3500
Rice yield (kg/ha)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Years
Figure 9 Rice yield simulated for Jyothi cultivar under GCM EC-Earth-Veg ssp585
Figure 10 Blue water footprint distribution for agricultural production in rabi season for the
years (a) 2016 (b) 2046 (c) 2076 (d) 2100.
Page 12
Figure 11 Green water footprint distribution for agricultural production in rabi season for the
years (a) 2016 (b) 2046 (c) 2076 (d) 2100.
The green water footprint distribution for rabi season is shown in Figure 11. The map depicts
an increase in green water footprint in future. The declining trend of rice yield during rabi
season (Figure 8) is one of the reasons for the increase observed in green water footprint.
Another important factor is the reduction in rainfall during rabi season. Palakkad and Alathur
taluks have higher value for green water footprint and lower values are observed in Ottapalam
and Talappilly taluks. But the increase in blue water footprint is more than the green water
footprint, thus converging to a conclusion of overuse of surface and subsurface blue water
resources due to climate change. Similar results were obtained for the other GCMs as well.
However, the proposed integrated modeling framework for the green and blue water footprint
assessment for rice cultivation under changing climate was able to provide a clear picture on
the water availability and distribution at regional spatial extent for the study area. All the results
point towards urgent need of considering adaptation and mitigation measure to reduce the green
and blue water footprint.
4. Conclusions
The study reveals that climate change has significant impact in rice cultivation and green and
Page 13
blue water footprint in Malampuzha command area. A declining trend in crop yield along with
an increasing trend of both blue and green water footprint has been observed under all the three
GCMs and scenarios. Higher value of blue water footprint for rice cultivation compared to the
green water footprint shows an indication towards exploitation of surface and ground water
resources for rice cultivation. Also, the spatial maps show that there is significant spatial and
temporal variability in the green and blue water footprint distribution among the five taluks
spread over the study area. Palakkad taluk accounts for the highest value of both blue and green
water footprint while lower values are observed in Ottapalam and Talappilly taluks. The
decreasing trend in the crop yield due to change in climate signifies the importance of
adaptation measures required to be taken up for increasing the crop yield by utilizing the water
available in an efficient and sustainable manner. Thus, future research should focus more on
developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures in the study area to sustain the
available water resources and harvest higher crop yield.
References
Aldaya, M. M., Chapagain, A. K., Hoekstra, A. Y., & Mekonnen, M. M. (2012). The Water Footprint
Assessment Manual: Setting the Global Standard. Taylor & Francis.
Badou, D. F., Diekkrüger, B., Kapangaziwiri, E., Mbaye, M. L., Yira, Y., Lawin, E. A., Oyerinde, G.
T., & Afouda, A. (2018). Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in
the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Hydrological Processes, 32(16),
2526–2542.
Fazeli Farsani, I., Farzaneh, M. R., Besalatpour, A. A., Salehi, M. H., & Faramarzi, M. (2018).
Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green
water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(1–2), 169–184.
Hoekstra, A. Y., & Arjen, Y. (2019). Green-blue water accounting in a soil water balance. Advances
in Water Resources, 112–117.
Horie, T. (2019). Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modelling, impact prediction and
adaptation. Proceedings of the Japan Academy, Series B 95(6),211–245.
Jeyrani, F., Morid, S., Srinivasan. (2021). Assessing basin blue-green available water components under
different management and climate scenarios using SWAT. Agricultural Water Management,
256.
Jose, G., & Athira, P. (2020). Long-term changes in climatic variables over the Bharathapuzha river
basin, Kerala, India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 142: 269-286.
Luo, K. and Tao, F. (2016) Dynamics of green and blue water flows and their controlling factors in
Heihe River basin of northwestern China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,241.
Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R., Williams, J.R. (2011). Soil and Water Assessment Tool:
Theoretical Documentation, Version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute.
Nyugen, N. V. (2002). Global climate changes and rice food security. FAO: Rome, Italy.
Ohta, S., and Kimura, A. (2007). Impacts of climate changes on the temperature of paddy waters and
suitable land for rice cultivation in Japan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 147(3-4),
186-198.
Shrestha, S., Deb, P., & Bui, T. T. T. (2014). Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate
change in Central Vietnam. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 21(1),
15–37.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Evaluation of local scour on parallel bridge piers - a case study

Dalal B1 and Deb S2
1
Ph.D. Research Scholar, Department of Civil engineering, ICFAI University Tripura,
Kamalghat - 799210, INDIA; Email: biswajitdalal.official@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil engineering, ICFAI University Tripura, Kamalghat
- 799210, INDIA; Email: subhrajyotideb@iutripura.edu.in
ABSTRACT
Bridge scour evaluation techniques used for erosion-resistant materials are qualitative and
unreliable or quantitatively over conservative. In this study, evaluation of scour on parallel
bridge piers is computed using the hydraulic model HEC-RAS (5.0.3) in the Burima River
Basin in Tripura, India. Results of this model shows to construct the proposed adjacent bridge
upstream instead of on the downstream side of the existing bridge and it is also seen that in
discharges with a larger return period, increases in scour, especially for bridge lateral piers,
due to the discharge increase, velocity and vortex flow around the piers. In some cases, the
HEC-RAS model estimates scour more than other empirical models like CSU & Larras. In
general overall outcomes the models are in good agreement, so that HEC-RAS can be used in
the study of bridges and their designs to assess precise scouring and depth of bridge pier. The
difference between the computed local scour depth on the existing and adjacent bridge
showed that the HEC-RAS model is a prominent tool for simulating local scour depth in case
of parallel bridges.
Keywords: Local scour, Parallel bridges, Burima River, HEC-RAS model.
1. Introduction
Safety and serviceability of bridges have always been great concerns to the practice
and profession of civil engineering (Kothyari. 2006). When water flows through a river bed,
it excavates and carries away the sediment from the bed the river bed as well as due to the
interaction of the structures, such as bridge pier, abutments (Behzad ghorbani, 2008).
Scouring can be defined as the result of erosive action of the flowing water. The main
characteristic features of the flow is a relatively large secondary vortex flow within the scour
hole and skewed velocity distributions along the circumference of the pier (Dey et al. 1993).
In alluvial stream continuous transportation of sediment can be seen as a geomorphologic
process. If something disrupts this sediment transportation process by constructing barrages,
dams etc, it may cause a long term changes in the stream bed evaluation (Mubeen Beg,
2013). Due to the continuous sediment transportation if it deposits in the reach length and due
to the deposition if river bed increases then it is called aggradations and in an opposite way,
due to the erosion if sediment bed decreased day by day then it is called degradation. But in
total scour aggradations does not have any contribution (Steven p. Smith, 1994). In 1930
Lacey’s regime formula was developed with a very limited field data in Punjab, having a
discharge ranges from 0.70 to 173 m3/s. The work has done in Ganga River (Majumder et al.
2011). The restriction of waterway by 3.6 km to 2 km, abutment scour and contraction scour
change 1.6 times and 3.9 times respectively. So, the waterway has significant role for the
bridge foundation design. By changing angle of attack by 5°, the change in pier scour is 10
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
percent. (Tiwari et al. 2012). The separation of the upstream incoming boundary layer and
formation near the bottom of necklace like vertical structures are commonly known as
horseshoe vortices, which stretch around the pier and fold around its upstream m part are a
consequence of the adverse pressure gradients due to the presence of the pier. If the upstream
flow is turbulent, the location, size and intensity of these vortices are highly variable in time
(Lue et al. 2011).
In this work, the essential hydraulic and hydrological data were used to predict the water
level profile and scour depth using HEC-RAS. From topographic maps in AutoCAD, cross-
sectional data were extracted. After generating topographic maps, sections upstream and
downstream of the river were obtained. Section data including major channels and numerical
section data were extracted and modeled in HEC-RAS. Input data for HEC-RAS include
cross-sectional data, bed slopes, Manning's coefficients, discharges at various recurrence
periods, stretch coefficients, and bridge geometry. This system is a graphical user interface
(GUI) and uses hydraulic parameters. The model is validated along with the observed water
level at a particular cross-section, and model calibration is also performed by changing the
value of Mannings (n) and the shape of the slope when cross-sectional data for that particular
region is obtained.
2. Theoretical Background
Various empirical equations have been developed for predicting scour depth around the
bridge piers. The Colorado State University (CSU) equation predicts maximum pier scour
depths for both live- bed and clear-water pier scour and expressed as
y s  2.0 K 1 K 2 K 3 K 4 a 0.65 y10.35 Fr10.43 (1)
Where, ys = Depth of scour in meter; Kj = Correction factor for pier nose shape; K2 =
Correction factor for angle of attack of flow; K3 = Correction factor for bed condition; K =
Correction factor for armoring of bed material; a = Pier width in meter; yi = Flow depth
directly upstream of the pier in meter. This is taken from the flow distribution output for the
cross section just upstream from the bridge; Fr1 = Froude Number directly upstream of the
pier.
A local pier scour equation developed by Dr. David Froehlich (Froehlich, 1991) has been
added to the HEC-RAS software as an alternative to the CSU equation. This equation given
by compare well against observed data (FHWA, 1996) and given by
y s  0.32 a y10.47 Fr10.22 D500.09  a (2)

0.62
Where,  = Correction factor for pier nose shape; a' = Projected pier width with respect to
the direction of the flow in meter.
The algorithms of CSU (Eq. 1) as well as Froehlich (Eq. 2) are inbuilt in the HEC-RAS
modelling tool. So non-dimensional analysis is done directly from the output data which are
produced by the HEC-RAS.
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December 22 -24, 2022
2.1 Calibrated models
In the present study scour model developed by HEC RAS tool is compared with some other
scour equations (Mueller et al. 1994).
2.1.1 Ahmad (1953) y sp  Kq 2 / 3  y0 (3)
Where, y sp = depth of flow at the bridge pier, including local pier Scour; y 0 =depth of flow
just upstream from the bridge pier or abutment, excluding local scour; K = a coefficient
that is a function of boundary geometry, abutment shape, width of the piers, shape of the
piers, and the angle of the approach flow.
0.25
y 
2.1.2. Blench-Inglis (1949) y sp  1.8b 0.25
q  02
0.5

  y0 (4)
 V0 
Where, b =width of the bridge pier; y sp =regime depth of flow ; q = discharge per unit width
just upstream from the pier; Fb = bed factor; Vo = velocity of the approach flow just upstream
from the bridge pier or abutment, F0 = Froude number of the flow just upstream of the pier;
g = acceleration of gravity.
0.65
 b 
2.1.3.Colorado state university y sp  2.0 y 0 K 1 K 2   F 0.43 (5)
(1975)  y0 
Where, K1 = coefficient based on the shape of the pier nose; K 2 = coefficient based on the
ratio of the pier length to pier width and the angle of the approach flow referenced to the
bridge pier; Fr= Froude number.
0.08
 b   b 
0.62 0.46
 y0 
2.1.4.Froechlich (1988) y sp  0.32b     F 0
0.2
  (6)
b  b   50 
d
Here, b' = width of the bridge pier projected normal to the approach flow;  = coefficient
based on the shape of the pier nose;  = angle of the approach flow referenced to the bridge
pier in degrees; and L = length of the bridge pier.
0.78
y 
2.1.5. Inglis-Poona (1949) y sp  1.73b 0   y0 (7)
 b 
2.1.6. Larras (1963) y sp  1.42K s 2 b 0.75 (8)
Where, y 0 =depth of flow just upstream from the bridge pier or abutment, excluding local
scour. K S 2 = coefficient based on the shape of the pier nose; b =width of the bridge pier
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
2.1.7. Shen-Maza (1964) y sp  3.4FP0.67 (9)
Where, F p = pier Froude number.
3. Data Collection
The study area is located near Golaghati in Tripura over Burima River. The latitude and
longitude of Golaghati are 23° 68' N and 91° 36' E respectively. Thirty year’s peak discharge
data for Burima River is collected from Water Resource Division, Bisalgarh and some other
data also collected from this division. These data includes section of the bridge at various
intervals, HFL, LBL, water depth etc. These data are arranged from the year 1980 to 2010.
The graphical representation of the data is shown in fig.1. It is shown that the maximum peak
discharge over thirty years was occurred during the year 1980 to 2010. In the present study
scouring due to flood has been computed.
Fig.1: Peak discharge data of Burima River for the period 1980 - 2010
Sediment sample were collected from the bridge site using the auger. Dry sieve analysis is
carried for Burima River sediment sample and plotted in the graph as shown in fig. 2. D50
value is calculated for analysis of scour in HEC-RAS modeling tool (Setia, 1997).
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December 22 -24, 2022
120
100
80
60
% Finer
40
20
0
0.01 0.1 1 10
Sieve Size (mm)

Fig. 2: Particle size distribution for the sediment sample of Burima River
4. Model Development in HEC-RAS
HEC-RAS is a superior tool to estimate the local scour and mobile bad computation ( Gibson
et al. 2006). In this study one bridge pier scour model is developed using the HEC-RAS
(5.0.3) tool for Golaghati Bridge over Burima River. Two conditions have been applied. One
is full waterway condition and another is 30 percent restricted waterway condition.
Calibration and validation of this model also have done. Geomantic data of Golaghati Bridge
is entered into the HEC-RAS software.
5.1 Computation of scour depth
Scour depends on many factors like discharge, velocity of flow, water level, angle of attack,
pier diameter etc (Elsebaie. 2013). Present study is considering only discharge, pier diameter
and angle of attack as variable. Angle of attack varies from 0˚ to 15˚ and pier diameter varies
from 1m to 5m. Scour profile is examined for both the conditions. One is full stretch water
way and another is 30 percent restricted water way. Table 1 show all the value of scour which
is generated in HEC-RAS modeling tool for both conditions.
Table 1: Variation of scour depth of Golaghati Bridge

Scour in Pier
Angle of Attack
Types of Flow (m)
(degree)
1 2 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0 2.02 3.31 4.31 4.47 4.88 5.27 5.42
3 2.47 3.67 4.65 4.78 5.17 5.53 6.92
6 2.89 4.04 4.95 5.05 5.42 5.80 6.15
Full Stretch 65 m
9 3.26 4.37 5.25 5.32 5.66 6.01 6.38
12 3.60 4.70 5.51 5.54 5.91 6.27 6.60
15 3.92 4.97 5.77 5.76 6.15 6.48 6.77
Contraction Scour 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59
0 2.41 3.69 4.80 5.23 5.63 4.55 4.82
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
Effective Flow 43.55m 3 2.73 4.09 5.18 5.20 5.97 4.77 5.07
6 3.10 4.50 5.52 5.91 6.25 5.00 5.26
9 3.4 4.87 5.85 6.23 6.53 5.18 5.45
12 3.8 5.24 6.14 6.49 6.81 5.41 5.64
15 4.2 5.53 6.43 6.75 7.09 5.59 5.79
Contraction Scour 2.08 2.24 2.46 2.73 3.06 3.90 --
From the above table it is clear that the scour in river bed increases with the increase of pier
diameter as well as angle of attack. The graphical representation between pier diameter and
scour depth at different angle of attack for Golaghati Bridge is shown in fig.3
8
Ѳ=0˚
7 Ѳ=3˚
Scour depth (m)
6 Ѳ=6˚
5 Ѳ=9˚
4 Ѳ=12˚
Ѳ=15˚
3
2
0 2 4 6
Pier Diameter (m)
(a)
8 Ѳ=0˚
Scour depth (m)
7 Ѳ=3˚
6 Ѳ=6˚
5 Ѳ=9˚
4
Ѳ=12˚
3
Ѳ=15˚
2
0 2 4 6
Pier Diameter (m)
(b)
Fig.3: Variation in scour depth with pier diameter for different angle of attack for Burima
River (a) full water way and (b) Restricted waterway
5.2 Calibration of scour depth
There are many other models of scour prediction. Now a day’s HEC-RAS is using all
worldwide to find the scour depth. It is more acceptable then the other models (Khassaf et al.
2013). There is a scope of comparing scour depth computed by HEC-RAS tool with other
scour models (Haghiabi et al. 2012). In the present study one statistical analysis is done based
on the scour depth. Considering HEC-RAS model as a standard, one bar chart is plotted
shows which models are under estimated and which are over estimated among the seven
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December 22 -24, 2022
scour models with respect to HEC-RAS as shown in fig.4
Table 2: Variation of scour depth using HEC-RAS and other models on Golaghati Bridge
Pier diameter (m)
Models
1.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Ahmad 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41
Blench-Inglis 1.27 2.05 2.57 2.78 2.98 3.15 3.31
CSU 1.98 3.10 4.03 4.46 4.86 5.25 5.62
Froechlich 0.65 1.01 1.29 1.42 1.55 1.66 1.77
Inglis-Poona 1.08 1.72 2.15 2.32 2.48 2.62 2.74
Larras 1.99 3.34 4.53 5.09 5.62 6.14 6.65
Shen-Maza 1.62 3.25 4.87 5.68 6.49 7.31 8.12
Present study 2.15 3.31 4.31 4.47 4.88 5.27 5.42
1
Scour depth (m)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Ahmad Blench-Inglis CSU
Froechlich Inglis-Poona Larras
Shen-Maza
Fig.4: Over estimated and under estimated scour models with respect to HEC-RAS model
5.3 Effect of upstream adjacent bridge on Golaghati Bridge
When a new neighboring bridge upstream is suggested, analysis of the current bridge is done
in this section. The four cases listed below have each been carefully examined: Case-I: The
proposed bridge is situated 4 m from the Golaghati Bridge, Case-II: The proposed bridge is
situated 100 m from the Golaghati Bridge, and Case-III: The proposed bridge is situated 140
m from the Golaghati Bridge. To determine the scour depth on the current bridge for inflow
of 1495 cumecs (1983), 1147 cumecs (1989), 711 cumecs (2010), and 475 cumecs (2002)
flood events, the effect of the next bridge is studied. Table 3 shows the relationship between
scour depth and the Froude number on the existing bridge.
Table 3: Scour depth and Froude’s number on existing bridge

Sr. No. Scour Depth(m) Froude’s Number Flow (m3/s)
1 3.27 0.23 475
2 4.83 0.29 711
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December 22 -24, 2022
3 6.68 0.34 1147

4 6.75 0.33 1495
According to the analysis, there is a lower Froude's number due to the nearby bridge on the
upstream side of the current bridge, which leads to a lower scour depth for carrying capacity
and fewer flood episodes than there would be with just the existing bridge. Table 4 compares
the current single bridge situation to scour depth, Froude's number, and variations in both.
The upstream bridge pier experiences the majority of the water's frictional resistance when
the adjacent bridge is positioned upstream at a distance of 4m, 100m and 140 m respectively
from the present bridge. As a result, there is less frictional resistance on the current bridge
pier, which causes a decrease in the Froude number and scour depth.
Table 4: Variation in scour depth and Froude’s number at existing bridge. When adjacent
bridge placed at 4m, 100m & 140m upstream respectively
4 m upstream 100 m upstream 140 m upstream
Sl. Flow Variation in Variation in Variation in
No. (m3/s) Variation in Variation in Variation in
Froude’s Froude’s Froude’s
scour depth scour depth scour depth
Number Number Number
1 475 - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve
2 711 - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve
3 1147 - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve
4 1495 - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve - ve
5.4 Effect of downstream adjacent bridge on Golaghati Bridge
This section analyses the current bridge when a new bridge is proposed downstream and
adjacent to it. The four cases listed below have each been carefully examined: Case-I: The
proposed bridge is situated 4 m from the Golaghati Bridge, Case-II: The proposed bridge is
situated 100 m from the Golaghati Bridge, and Case-III: The proposed bridge is situated 140
m from the Golaghati Bridge. In order to determine the scour depth on the current bridge for
the discharge of 1495 cumecs (1983), 1147 cumecs (1989), 711 cumecs (2010), and 475
cumecs (2002) flood events, the influence of a neighbouring bridge was examined.
Table 5: Variation in scour depth and Froude’s number at existing bridge. When adjacent
bridge placed at 4m, 100m & 140m downstream respectively
Sl. 4 m upstream 100 m upstream 140 m upstream
Flow Variation in Variation in Variation in
No Variation in Variation in Variation in
(m3/s) scour depth Froude’s
scour depth
Froude’s
scour depth
Froude’s
. Number Number Number
1 475 + ve + ve + ve + ve + ve + ve
2 711 + ve + ve + ve + ve + ve + ve
3 1147 + ve + ve + ve + ve + ve + ve
4 1495 - ve - ve + ve - ve + ve - ve
The results of the analysis show that for the 475, 711, and 1147 cumecs flood occurrences,
there is an increase in Froude's number and scour depth because of the presence of a
neighbouring bridge on the downstream side of the existing bridge, however for the 1495
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December 22 -24, 2022
cumecs flood event, Froude's number reduces and scour depth rises as compared to the
findings for the Golaghati Bridge solely. Table 5 compares the current single bridge scenario
to scour depth, Froude's number, and variations in both. The majority of the water's frictional
resistance was applied to the original bridge pier when the neighboring bridge was positioned
4m, 100m and 140 m respectively downstream of the old bridge.
5.3 Statistical Analysis
After giving input of all these discharge data in HEC-RAS, scour depths are found for all the
discharges and the variation regarding the discharge. Graph between discharge and scour
depth for Golaghati Bridge on Burima River is shown in fig.5. On these graphs one trend line
is drawn. The correlation between the discharge and scour depth is shown on the graph.
2
Scour depth (m)
y = 0.1495x0.43
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Discharge (m3/sec)
Fig.5: Variation of scour depth with discharge in Burima River
5.4 Dimensionless Analysis
The dimensional analysis technique is performed to get the variables affecting the local scour
depth around bridge piers in dimensionless groups. Data from the HEC-RAS model is used to
describe the variation of these dimensionless groups with the local scour.
2.5
y = 1.4055x0.4193
2.1
1.7
ds/b
1.3
0.9
0.5
0 2 1 3 4
y/b
Fig.6: Variation of scour with flow depth in Burima River
Scour depends on many factors. One is flow depth. All the variables are makes to
dimensionless by dividing with the pier diameter (Dey et al. 1995). In the fig.6 it shows the
comparison between scour depth and flow depth. It shows that the scour depth increases with
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December 22 -24, 2022
the increase in flow depth. Data from the hypothetical model showed that velocity of
approach has a direct effect on local scour depth. The effect of the velocity of approach is
considered by studying the effect of pier's Froude number with local scour depth (Ting et al.
2002). Figures 7 showed this variation.
2
y = 2.8926x0.43
1.6
ds/b
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
Fr
Fig.7: Variation of scour with Froude number in Burima River
The angle of attack has an appreciable effect on local scour depth. The local scour depth
increases by 54.02% when the angle of inclination of the pier was changed from 0° to 15° as
shown in Fig. 8.
5
4
3
ds/b
2
1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Angle of attack(degree)
Fig.8: Variation of scour with angle of attack in Burima River
Pier shape and number has a significant effect on local scour depth. The pier number is
described by contraction ratio (summation of the openings between piers divided by total
channel width). Figures 9 showed the effect of the pier shape and number on the local scour
depth.
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December 22 -24, 2022
ds/b 4
0
0.75 0.825 0.9 0.975
Contraction ratio
Fig.9: Variation of scour with contraction ratio in Burima River
5.5 Correlation Analysis
Many techniques for carrying out regression analysis have been developed. Familiar methods
such as linear regression and ordinary least squares regression are parametric. Correlation is a
measure of linear association. If the relationship is not linear, correlation coefficient is not an
appropriate statistic for measuring their association, and if a linear relationship is valid the
correlation coefficient is around one. Correlations between HEC RAS scour depth and other
seven models are done. The correlation factor for seven equations is shown in table 2.
Table 6: Correlation factor between HEC-RAS & other empirical models

Sl No Equation Correlation factor
1 CSU 0.9951
2 Larras 0.9975
3 Ahmed 0.9743
4 Blench-Inglis 0.8905
5 Shen - Maza 0.9241
6 Inglis-Poona 0.9082
7 Froechlich 0.8539
6. Conclusion
Scour depth analysis are necessary for study of river morphology, safety and stability of
bridge piers on a river. In the present study, we have estimated scour depth using HEC RAS
modeling tool and also compared it with five different other empirical models. Some of the
major observation after the result and analysis are listed below:
1. It is more advisable to construct the proposed adjacent bridge upstream instead of on the
downstream side of the existing bridge.
2. In the present study, it was found that an increase in the angle of attack resulted in the
increase in the scour depth. Also it was observable that the scour depth increased with the
increase of pier diameter.
3. On the contrary, scour depth of the selected bridge piers increases when the width of the
cross-section of the river decreases.
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December 22 -24, 2022
4. Scour depth computed by HEC-RAS modeling tool is similar with CSU (1975) and
Larras (1963) and correlation between all these models and the computed scour depth
from HEC-RAS model is strongly correlated with Larras (1963) model.
5. With the increase of discharge, local scour depth also increases. As well as with the
increase of flow depth, Froude number and Reynolds number local scour depth increases,
on the other hand scour depth decreases with the increase in contraction ratio of river.
Acknowledgement
The authors of this paper would like to acknowledge Water Resource Division, Bisalgarh for
providing the necessary dataset which were used in this study. The authors would also like to thank to
the Dean, FST Dean, RND and VC, ICFAI University Tripura for providing necessary laboratory
facilities and giving valuable guidance.
References
Haghiabi, A. H., & Zaredehdasht, E. (2012). Evaluation of HEC-RAS ability in erosion and sediment
transport forecasting. World Applied Sciences Journal, 17(11), 1490-1497.
Setia, B. (1997). Scour around bridge piers: mechanism and protection (Doctoral dissertation, Civil
Engineinerg., Indian Institute of Technology).
Ghorbani, B. (2008). A field study of scour at bridge piers in flood plain rivers. Turkish Journal of
Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 32(4), 189-199.
Mueller, D. S., Miller, R. L., & Wilson, J. T. (1994). Historical and potential scour around bridge
piers and abutments of selected stream crossings in Indiana. Water-Resources Investigations
Report, 93, 4066.
Ting, F. C., Briaud, J. L., Chen, H. C., Gudavalli, R., Perugu, S., & Wei, G. (2001). Flume tests for
scour in clay at circular piers. Journal of hydraulic engineering, 127(11), 969-978.
Tiwari, H., Sharma, N., & Simegen, A. A. (2012). Bridge scour by HEC-RAS model: a case study
over Ganga Bridge. STM Journals, 1-8.
Lu, J. Y., Shi, Z. Z., Hong, J. H., Lee, J. J., & Raikar, R. V. (2011). Temporal variation of scour depth
at nonuniform cylindrical piers. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 137(1), 45-56.
Elsebaie, I. H. (2013). An experimental study of local scour around circular bridge pier in sand
soil. International Journal of Civil & Environmental Engineering IJCEE-IJENS, 13(01), 23-28.
Beg, M. (2013). Predictive competence of existing bridge pier scour depth predictors. European
International Journal of Science and Technology, 2(1), 161-178.
Khassaf, S. I., & Shakir, S. S. (2013). Modeling of Local Scour around Al-kufa Bridge
Piers. International Journal of Advanced Research, 1(8).
Gibson, S., Brunner, G., Piper, S., & Jensen, M. (2006, April). Sediment transport computations in
HEC-RAS. In Eighth Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference (8thFISC), Reno, NV (pp.
57-64).
Smith, S. P. (1994). PRELIMINARY PROCEDURE TO PREDICT SCOUR IN BEDROCK. INTERIM
REPORT (No. CDOT-R-SD-94-14).
Mazumder, S. K., & Kumar, Y. K. (2006, November). Estimation of scour in bridge piers on alluvial
non-cohesive soil by different methods. In IRC Highway Research Bulletin. Oct., 2006,
presented in the 67th IRC Congress at Panchkula.
Dey, S., Bose, S. K., & Sastry, G. L. (1995). Clear water scour at circular piers: a model. Journal of
Hydraulic Engineering, 121(12), 869-876.
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comment. Sadhana, 32(3), 187-197.
Page 12
and Coastal Engineering (HYDRO 2022 INTERNATIONAL) at Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh, India
during December 22 -24, 2022
Quantitative Assessment of Viability of Rainwater Harvesting System for

Households
Mohril R.S.1*, Vasudeo A.D.2, Ghare A.D.3
1
Ph.D. Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, VNIT Nagpur - 440010, INDIA
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, VNIT Nagpur - 440010, INDIA
3
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, VNIT Nagpur - 440010, INDIA
*Email: mohrilradha@gmail.com
Abstract
The rate of water demand is increasing daily as the global population increases. This directly
leads to water stress. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is an effective water conservation technique
that contribute its effect to the reduction in water scarcity. In spite of many years of efforts
from governments to promote RWH in residential areas, the results are not very appreciable.
The primary reason for this is unawareness of the technical viability and financial benefit of
installing the RWH system in the many layers of the population. There are several RWH system
feasibility assessment methodologies; people who are engaged in the domain of water
resources use them often. However, those methodologies are not sufficient to convince
common people in their own terms and language. In this work, an extensive methodology to
estimate the viability of the RWH is developed and tested. In this work a comprehensive
methodology is developed to capture the crucial factors of RWH system; these factors are
captured with the help of simple questions to the user, and further converting these answers
given by the user into the inputs to a mathematical formulation. Furthermore, it provides a
decision support system for the viability and workability of the RWH system for their domestic
household sites. Crucial factors of RWH viz. engineering aspects, biophysical aspects, and
socioeconomic aspects are incorporated by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. Five
households in the region of Chandrapur, Maharashtra, India, are examined. Our widely
applicable, highly flexible technique demonstrated powerful, simple to utilize, and minimal
expensive. Its application is prescribed to help the common people in surveying and expediting
the installation of the RWH System for households.
Keywords: Rainwater Harvesting, Viability assessment, Multicriteria Decision Making
1.Introduction
Around 71% of the earth is covered with water, which appears to be a situation of plenty of
water availability for mankind. However, the fact is that out of this 71% water, 97% water is
saltwater that is not useful for human beings. The remaining i.e., about only 3% of water is
freshwater. This 3% of water, again 2.5% of freshwater is locked in the form of ice caps and
glaciers. That means only 0.5% of water is usable and manageable (Evans, 2020). From the
beginning of 20th Century, use of freshwater or withdrawal of freshwater increased at a high
rate. The rate of water demand is increasing continually as the rate of global population growth
is increasing (Gupta, et al., 1997). Excess use of water by the industries, agricultural fields, and
some urban users is being observed at several places Climate change is also continuously
Page 1
affecting the freshwater supplies. The rate of withdrawal of freshwater has jumped after 1950
to a higher rate (Gardner-Outlaw & Engelman, 1997).
Precipitation over the landmasses is a significant source of freshwater. It replenishes surface

and groundwater and is utilized for farming, industry, and human requirements. In various parts
of world, individuals rely upon precipitation and runoff because of the absence of surface water
like waterways or rivers and lakes. In India, it is estimated that sectoral water requirements are
85% for agriculture,7% for domestic, 5% for industries, and 3% for energy (Dhawan, 2017).
The geographical area of India about 329 million hectares (2.45% of earth landmass), and the
population is 1.384 billion in 2020, which is 17.7% of the world (Kumar, 2011). As the global
population grows and water demand increases, the risk of water scarcity or water stress region
increases.
Water scarcity is the major issue in several parts of India. As water scarcity increases, water
conservation is essential (Gupta, et al., 1997). Water conservation incorporating all the
approaches, procedures, and activities to deal with the regular asset of freshwater, ensure the
hydrosphere, and meet future water demand. As water scarcity concerns water conservation is
only a good solution. Rainwater harvesting is an effective technique of water conservation
(Adham, et al., 2017). Moreover, it is one of the popular measures suggested by the government
to overcome the issue of water scarcity. Many countries have implemented the policies of this,
and they are quite successful in it.
Rainwater Harvesting (RWH) is the activity of the collection of precipitation and recharged
directly into the groundwater. Rainwater harvesting is the activity of collection and storage of
precipitation water, which would have in any case spilled into the runoff or overflow stream
networks (Mechell, 2009). This approach of RWH also helps to avoid flooding, as most of the
rainwater is used in recharging the local water resources instead of allowing water to run off in
the streams. Due to the reasons mentioned above, RWH is considered one of the popular water
conservation approaches.
In the present study, it is proposed to develop a Question answer-based methodology for the
mathematical assessment of the viability of Rainwater Harvesting System (RWHS). With this
methodology, the answers by the house owners will be converted into some predefined ratings,
and the overall rating will suggest a fair idea about the viability of installing the RWHS for
their household sites. This methodology will provide the user a good decision support system,
which can help them in deciding whether they should implement the RWHS considering a
financial and overall benefits.
The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to capture the crucial factors
of RWHS. Information about all crucial factors of RWHS of any particular site will be captured
with the help of questionnaire to the user, convert these answers given by the user into the
inputs for mathematical formulation. Furthermore, provide a decision support system for
viability and workability of the RWHS for their domestic household sites. Crucial factors of
RWHS are the Engineering aspect, biophysical aspect, and socioeconomic aspects were
incorporating by using the multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique. Analytical
Page 2
Hierarchy Process (AHP) is being used considering its benefits, such as easy to use, offers
many criteria, choosing the importance of criteria, and check on consistency. Based on the
weights of the components calculated by AHP, a relation was built, which results in the
viability score for a particular case (Saaty, 2008). This score represents the viability of the
RWHS for the particular scenario. Few households in the region of Chandrapur, Maharashtra,
India, were examined. The methodology presented here is widely applicable, highly flexible
technique demonstrating powerful, simple to utilize, and minimal expense. Its application is
prescribed to help the common man in surveying and improving the installation of the RWHS
for households.
2. Methodology
In this study, to investigate the viability of the RWHS, a number of components were analyzed.
To accomplish the specific objective of viability assessment, finding ratings of all components
is the important step and for that Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used. A
methodology flowchart is arranged in figure 1, which gives a layout of different steps received
in this work.
Figure 1 Flowchart Depicting Overall Methodology for assessing the viability of rainwater
harvesting system (RWHS)
Page 3
2.1. Study of Components
The assortment and storage of precipitation water for later use are defined as rainwater
harvesting. It is just gathering, storing, and refining the pure precipitation that falls upon the
rooftop. Several components are engaged in the action of collection, storage, and purification
of natural rainfall. Among all available components, we took the eight most important
components of this RWHS. The components used in this study are Rainfall, Soil texture,
Groundwater table, Area of Rooftop, Method of Rainwater harvesting, Current source of water,
non-rainy days, and cost. In total there are eight components.
Totally eight main criteria's were derived that are components of RWHS, which were then
classified and got ratings from very low to very high: 2 (very low viability), 4 (low viability),
6 (medium viability), 8 (high viability), and 10 (very high viability). These rating were resolved
in consultation with experts in this type of study and utilizing information data from the
literature. All eight components, their classification, and their ratings are shown in table 1.
Table 1 The Table of Ratings of All Components
Criteria Classes Values Rating

Rainfall Very low viability <350 2
(mm/yr.) Low viability 350-450 4
Medium viability 451-800 6
High viability 801-1500 8
Very high viability >1500 10
Soil Texture Very low viability <8 2
(%clay content) Low viability 8-11 4
Groundwater Table Not viable <2 0
(m bgl) Very low viability 2-5 2
Low viability 5-10 4
Very low viability <50 2
Area of Rooftop Low viability 50-100 4
(sq.m) Medium viability 100-200 6
Current Source of Water Low viability Municipal corporation water 5
High viability Borewell/ Open wells 10
Page 4
Non-rainy Days Very low viability >10 2

(months) Low viability 10-8 4
Very high viability <4 10
Method of rainwater harvesting Low viability Storage for direct use 5
High viability Recharge groundwater aquifer 10
Cost Very low viability >55,000 2
(Rupees) Low viability 55,000-25,000 4
Medium viability 25,000-10,000 6
High viability 10,000-3,500 8
Very high viability <3,500 10
2.2 Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Technique
Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the technique which assists individuals with
settling on choices, as per their inclinations, in situations with more than one conflicting
criteria. After studying MCDM techniques, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to
get the exact weights of all components. The fundamental use of mathematics and expert
judgment are the key points of this process. The fundamental parameter of this whole process
is criteria weights. The steps include in the AHP are showing in the flowchart in figure 2 below:
Figure 2 Flowchart for Analytic Hierarchy Process
Page 5
After constructing the decision hierarchy, the interest turned towards the analysis part, which
was done by pairwise comparison that derives mathematical scales of estimation for the
components. Calculated or considered component weights are shown in Table 2.
Table 2 Weights of Components involved
Criteria Weights
Rainfall 32.32%
Soil Texture 9.73%
Groundwater Table 8.67%
Area of Rooftop 8.66%
Current Source of Water 6.17%
Method of RWHS 6.74%
Non rainy Days 5.84%
Cost 21.83%
Soil Depth 0.00%
Slope 0.00%
Location of RWH 0.00%
2.3 Calculation of the Viability of RWHS
The final step in the assessment methodology was calculation of the overall viability of each
RWH site. The overall RWH viability was calculated by applying the following formula:
𝑉 = ∑8𝑖=1 𝑊𝑖𝑋𝑖 (1)
where,
V = Viability,
W = weight of criteria i,
X = rating of criteria i,
i = number of criteria.
As rating of criteria was classified in the range of 2 to 10 as shown in the section 4.1, the overall
viability will be classified also from 2 to 10, namely, 10 (very high viability), 8 (high viability),
Page 6
6 (medium viability), 4 (low viability) and 2 (very low viability). Description of each
classification of overall viability is in detail explained in the Annexure 1, Table no.1.
3. Demonstration of the methodology
3.1 Study area
Chandrapur is situated on the border areas of Maharashtra in the Vidarbha area. It is situated
between 19.30' N to 20.45'N Latitude and 78.46'E longitude (Anon., 2006). The Chandrapur
district region is limited by the northern area surrounded by Nagpur, Bhandara, Wardha and
Yavatmal district’s and is situated on the western side. Gadchiroli district is the boundaries of
eastern sides; also, the Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are the surrounding boundaries of
Chandrapur district. The feeders of Godavari waterways that flows of stream Vainganga and
Wardha. The stream of Wardha flows from the northern area of the district, while the
Vainganga stream flows from the eastern area of the district.
Figure 3 Location of Study Area
3.2 RWH Viability Estimation for Individual Cases.
To demonstrate this methodology, study of different geographical locations was done. The
study was conducted on 5 different types of households. The complete process and steps of
calculation of viability score are given below. However, the complete calculation steps of case
1 is shown here as the total 5 studies are similar to the calculation process.
Page 7
3.2.1 Demonstration Case 1
This is the first case studied for demonstration of this methodology. All inputs were first taken
using the questionnaire, after taking the inputs, all the values were put in the formulation of the
methodology and their viability score was calculated. Which will inform users about the
validity of RWHS of that site.
The complete process of calculating the viability score for case 1 is as follows:
Step 1: filling questionnaire
Questionnaire for estimating feasibility of Rainwater Harvesting System

{This form requires to fill user information as input to the methodology. And based on their input user
will get information about the feasibility of a rainwater harvesting system for their household.}
Name: XYZ
Address:
Plot no. 81
Address line 1: Civil lines
Address line 2: wasekar layout
City: Chandrapur state: Maharashtra
Area of rooftop (in sq. meter): 112
Current source of water to your house:
Borewell/ Well Water from municipal corporation
Depth of water in borewell/ well (if you have):

(in meter’s) OR (in feet’s) 50
Method of rainwater harvesting:
Recharging groundwater aquifers Storage for direct use
Approximate cost for installation of RWHS (in Rupees): 12,000
***
Figure 4 questionnaire for estimating the viability of RWHS
Page 8
Step 2: Compare Input Data with Ratings of Criteria
Table 3 Main steps for data collection, and calculation for each criterion
Criteria Classes Values Rating Values obtained for case 1
Very low
<350 2
viability
The average rainfall of the city
Low Chandrapur is 1250 mm.
350-450 4
viability This value of rainfall lies
Medium between the values 801 to
451-800 6
Rainfall viability 1500 mm/yr.
(mm/yr.) High The rating assigned to the
801-1500 8
viability rainfall criterion is 8.
Very high
>1500 10
viability
Very low
<8 2
viability The soil type present in this
Low region of Chandrapur is of
8-11 4
viability sandy clay and light clay.
Medium The value of % clay content
11-15 6
viability for this type of soil is in
Soil Texture High between 15 to 20.
(%clay content) 15-20 8
viability The rating assigned to the soil
Very high texture criterion is 8.
>20 10
viability
Not viable <2 0
The groundwater table present
Very low
2-5 2 on the site at 50 ft below
viability
ground level. That is 15.24 m
Low
5-10 4 below ground level.
viability
This value of groundwater
Groundwater Medium
10-20 6 table lies between the value 10
Table viability
to 20 m.
(m bgl) High
20-40 8 The rating assigned to the
viability
groundwater table criterion is
Very high
>40 10 6.
viability
Very low
<50 2 The area of rooftop of the site
viability
is 112 sq m.
Low
50-100 4 This value of area of rooftop
viability
Area of Rooftop lies between the value100 to
Medium
(sq.m) 100-200 6 200 sq m.
viability
The rating assigned to the area
High
200-400 8 of rooftop criterion is 6.
viability
Page 9
Very high
>400 10
viability
Municipal
Low Current source of water of the
corporation 5
viability site is borewell/ well.
Current Source water
So, the assigned rating for this
of Water High
Borewell/wells 10 criterion is 10.
viability
Very low
>10 2
viability
Low
10-8 4 The total non-rainy days of
viability
Chandrapur city is about 8
Medium
8-6 6 months.
Non-rainy Days viability
The rating assigned to the non-
(months) High
6-4 8 rainy days criterion is 6.
viability
Very high
<4 10
viability
Low Storage for direct Recharging groundwater
5
Method of viability use aquifer is adopted method of
RWHS for the given site.
rainwater Recharge
High The rating assigned to the
harvesting groundwater 10
viability method of RWHS criterion is
aquifer 10.
Very low
>55,000 2
viability
Low
55,000-25,000 4 The approximate cost for the
viability
Medium given site coming out to be
25,000-10,000 6 12000.
Cost viability
High The given cost lies in between
(Rupees) 10,000-3,500 8
viability 10000 to 25000.
The rating assigned to the cost
criterion is 6.
Very high
<3,500 10
viability
Step 3: Calculation of the Viability Score of RWHS
The final step in the assessment methodology was calculation of the overall viability of each
RWH site. The overall RWH viability was calculated by applying the equation 1.
8
𝑉 = ∑ 𝑊𝑖𝑋𝑖
𝑖=1
Page 10
V = (weight of rainfall*rating of rainfall) + (weight of soil texture*rating of soil

texture) + (weight of groundwater table*rating of groundwater table) + (weight of area of
rooftop*rating of area of rooftop) + (weight of current source of water*rating of current source
of water) + (weight of non-rainy days*rating of non-rainy days) + (weight of method of
RWHS*rating of method of RWHS) + (weight of cost*rating of cost)
Calculated weights of the criteria’s are given in the table 5 shows below.
Rating of the criteria was calculated in the above table 4.
Table 4 Weights of each criteria
Criteria Weights
Rainfall 32.32%
Soil Texture 9.73%
Groundwater Table 8.67%
Area of Rooftop 8.66%
Current Source of Water 6.17%
Method of RWHS 6.74%
Non rainy Days 5.84%
Cost 21.83%
V = (32.32%* 8) + (9.73%* 8) + (8.67%* 6) + (8.66%* 6) + (6.17%* 10) + (6.74%* 6) +

(5.84%* 10) + (21.83%* 6)
V = (0.3232* 8) + (0.0973* 8) + (0.0867* 6) + (0.0866* 6) + (0.0617* 10) + (0.0674* 6) +

(0.0584* 10) + (0.2183* 6)
V = 7.32
The value of the viability score comes out to be 7.32 for the given first case. This viability
scores also distinguished into different ranges, which inference is mentioned in table 3. So,
according to the classification of final viability score the output of given case is shown below:
The viability score obtained for this case is 7.03.
Prescription: Congratulations! As per the given details, your property location is

good site for implementing RWHS. Considering the estimated installation cost and
benefits you should confidently go for its implementation. Thank you for thinking
about our beloved nature.
Page 11
The criteria weights were calculated for each component involved in the process of RWHS.
The following Figure 5 represents the scores appointed utilizing the pairwise comparison
matrix. The rainfall criterion was given the best weightage, and the non-rainy days criterion
the least, 32.32% and 5.84%, respectively. The ratings of each component (criteria) were
determined, positioned, and renamed dependent on the five different appropriateness classes.
The equation was carried out to get the viability scores for sites. The consistency of every
matrix was resolved to calculate the consistency ratio (CR). For the fundamental criteria matrix,
CR was 4.55%. The requirement of a CR score in the AHP is 10% or less, and it is considered
a more acceptable CR. To demonstrate this methodology, study of different geographical
locations was done. The study was conducted on 5 different types of households, which
includes five demonstration cases. It consisted of different household types, such as a regular
house, a bungalow, a small house, an apartment, and a business complex as site one to five
respectively. A different viability score was obtained for each type of household. The highest
viability score for the RWH site was 8 for site five, which was having a 400m 2 area of the
rooftop. With borewell as a current source of water, the groundwater level was 70 feet, with
40,000 rupees of the approximate cost of installation of RWHS.The least score was 5.64 for
site 3, which was having a 50 m2 area of the rooftop. With water from municipal corporation
as a current source of water, with 4,000 rupees of the approximate cost of installation of RWHS.
The financial standards that are cost and criteria of non-rainy days had critical adverse
consequences on the overall RWH suitability which were more significant part of the local
condition. The most minimal scores were recorded for the financial standards. A few locales
enrolled low execution in such a manner because of the significant expense of carrying out and
keeping up of RWHS and the minimum amount of water harvested. Furthermore, this
methodology gives a clear indication of how practical this installation of RWHS for the site or
household is. Until no such methodology would give those who want to install a RWHS a clear
idea about the system, how useful it is, and how much one can benefit from installing it.
6%
6%
7% 32%
8%
9%
10% 22%
Rainfall Cost Soil Texture

GW Table Area of Rooftop Method of RWHS
Current source of water Non-rainy Days
Figure 5 Weightages of Criteria’s
Page 12
The methodology introduced here was intended to be not difficult to use, to give exact
outcomes without the requirement for complex examination, and to be sufficiently adaptable
to apply under different conditions basically by changing the measures. Hence, the time and
cost required can be kept as sensible cut-off points while conveying exact and helpful data.
Regardless, it should be remembered that in the utilization of AHP, well-qualified experts and
the consulted literature exceptionally influencing the weights appointed to every standard or
criteria. Generous consideration should therefore be taken in the weighting method.
5. Conclusions
Despite of innumerous efforts by governmental agencies over the past decades, the success in
increasing the trend of implementing RWH is not much visible. Incredulity about its
installation, considering the tradeoff with the installation cost, is one of the major reasons for
this. Even being aware of the benefits of implementing RWHS, it is difficult for the common
people to understand its viability, considering the required installation cost. In order to resolve
this significant challenge, the present research paper was formulated and performed. The main
conclusions are:
(1) The methodology provides an accurate evaluation of the viability of the RWH, when
compared with the field investigations of already installed systems.
(2) In the demonstration case study, most sites showed low ratings for the criteria of cost
and non-rainy days, as the study area is having only four months of rain, which resulted
in a low score of the viability of RWHS.
(3) Site characteristics criteria play a more important role in getting more viability scores
than other criteria.
(4) AHP is effectively proven as a better technique, which consumes less time, higher
accuracy, and ability to handle large input data to identify RWH potential sites.
(5) By using this methodology, any common site owner can easily perform the viability
study of implementing RWHS while estimating the overall expenditure.
References
Adham, A. et al., 2017. Development of Methodology for Existing rainwater harvesting assessment
in(semi)-arid regions. Springer, pp. 171-184.
Adham, A. et al., 2018. A GIS-based approach for identifying potential sites for harvesting rainwater
in the Western Desert of Iraq. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, pp. 297-
304.
Anon., 2006. Environmental status and action plan, s.l.: MAHARASHTRA POLLUTION CONTROL
BOARD.
Dhawan, V., 2017. Water and Agriculture in India, s.l.: Federal ministry of food and agriculture.
Evans, M., 2020. Benefits of Water Conservation, s.l.: s.n.
Gardner-Outlaw, T. & Engelman, R., 1997. Sustaining water, easing scarcity: A second update, s.l.:
Revised Data for the Population Action International Report, Sustaining Water: Population and
the Future of Renewable Water Supplies.
Gupta, K. K., Deelstra, J. & Sharma, K. D., 1997. Estimation of water harvesting potential for a semiarid
area using GIS and remote sensing. s.l., s.n., pp. 53-62.
Page 13
Kumar, S. S., 2011. Land Accounting in India: Issues and concerns, s.l.: s.n.
Mechell, J., 2009. Rainwater Harvesting: System Planning, s.l.: Texas AgriLife Extension Service.
College Station, TX.
Mekdaschi Studer , R., 2013. Water harvesting: guidelines to good practice.
Saaty, T. L., 2008. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process.. Int. J. Services Sciences, Vol.
1, pp. 83-98.
Annexure 1
Table 1 Classification of Overall Viability Score and its Prescription
Overall viability score Nomenclature Prescription
2 very low viability For the given details of

your property, considering
the cost of installation, it is
viable to a small extent.
Although it will not result
into much of the desired
benefits in near time
horizon, in the longer run it
will be surely beneficial. It
is recommended to install
RWHS after having formal
consultation from the
experts.
4 low viability For the given details of

viable to a small extent.
will be surely beneficial
6 medium viability For the given details of

viable to a good extent.
Page 14
will be surely beneficial.

This will result into a good
attempt of water
conservation.
8 high viability Congratulations! As per

the given details, your
property location is good
site for implementing
RWHS. Considering the
estimated installation cost
and benefits you should
confidently go for its
implementation. Thank
you for thinking about our
beloved nature.
10 very high viability Congratulations. As per

the given details, your
property location is an
excellent site for
implementing RWHS.
Considering the estimated
installation cost, you
should confidently go for
its implementation. This
will result into a great
attempt of water
conservation. Thank you
for thinking about our
beloved nature
Page 15
Attribution of runoff variation to changes in climate and catchment

characteristics for Brahmani-Baitarani river basin in eastern India
Nehar Mandal1 and Kironmala Chanda2
1
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian
School of Mines), Dhanbad, India, 826004; Email: neharmandal10@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian
School of Mines), Dhanbad, India, 826004; Email: kironmala@iitism.ac.in
Abstract
Climate warming, land use change, and anthropogenic stresses have a significant impact on the
hydrological cycle at the regional scale. Evaluation of the effect of climate change and
anthropogenic stresses on partitioning of precipitation to runoff and evapotranspiration is the
key to understand the complexities of basin-scale hydrology. This study uses a climate
elasticity approach to quantify the relative impact of climatic factors and anthropogenic stresses
on the variations in the runoff of the Brahmani-Baitarani river basins in eastern India. Fu’s
Budyko based equation is employed to partition the impact of watershed surface characteristics
on runoff over the aforementioned river basins. Precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration
(PET), and discharge (Q) are the only three hydrological components used in this study
encompassing the period 1990 to 2019. It is observed that runoff variation is more sensitive to
changes in P compared to changes in PET; the sensitivity coefficient of runoff with respect to
𝜕𝑄
precipitation, i.e., (𝜕𝑃 ) varies between 0.54 to 0.67, while the sensitivity coefficient of runoff
𝜕𝑄
with respect to potential evapotranspiration, i.e., (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) varies between −0.29 to −0.43. Runoff
was found to be reducing over the study period by 33% and 35% at Brahmani and Baitarani
sub-basin outlets respectively. In this study, the contribution to runoff variation by climate and
catchment change has been varied between upper and lower bounds using various
combinations of weighting factors α (0, 0.5, and 1). Results show that, for a weighting factor
value of α = 0.5, catchment characteristics of the Brahmani watershed have a marginally higher
influence (18%) on the runoff reduction than climatic component (15%). On the other hand, at
the Baitarani sub-basin, the climate component has more influence (20%) on runoff reduction
than the catchment characteristics (15%). This study will be helpful towards better water
resources management and in achieving sustainability under climate change.
Keywords: Keywords: Budyko equation, runoff partitioning, Brahmani-Baitarani basin,

catchment characteristics, climatic components
1. Introduction
Runoff is an important component of the hydrological cycle, a key element in closing the water-
energy balance between the land and atmosphere. Several studies have focused on quantifying
trends in runoff change around the world (Li et al., 2020; Yang et al., 2008; Zheng et al., 2018).
Climate change is one of the main driving forces influencing the availability of water resources
Page 1
(Dey & Mishra, 2017; Kundzewicz et al., 2008; Zhang et al., 2021). Rainfall and
evapotranspiration are climatic factors that directly affect runoff variation while anthropogenic
activities, vegetation type, land use changes, etc. are catchment factors that indirectly affect
runoff variation (Wang et al., 2012).
Two modeling approaches are mostly used to evaluate the impact of climate and catchment on
runoff- hydrological modeling and the water balance method based on the Budyko hypothesis
(Zheng et al., 2018). For example, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was
introduced to assess the relative impact of anthropogenic activities and climate change on a
river basin in northwest China (Dong et al., 2014). The results show that climate change has a
14.3% contribution and anthropogenic activity has an 85.7% contribution to overall runoff
reduction. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used in the Qingyi river basin,
China to partition the impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological processes (Liu
et al., 2013). The results indicated that climate change (2.4%) is the main contributor to
streamflow change. Although hydrological models are effective tools for delineating the effects
of climate change and anthropogenic activities on stream flow, many uncertainties such as
model parameter calibration, physical parameter selection, etc. affect the accuracy of the results
(Bao et al., 2012; Swain et al., 2020; Zheng et al., 2018).
In addition to hydrological models, water balance models based on the Budyko hypothesis
(Budyko, 1974) have been widely used in recent years to delineate the contribution of climate
change and catchment characteristics to changes in runoff (Fu et al., 2007; Liang et al., 2013;
Sinha et al., 2018, 2020; Yang et al., 2007; Zheng et al., 2018). The Budyko hypothesis posits
a functional balance between water supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential
evapotranspiration, PET) from the atmosphere (Guo et al., 2019). Budyko equations can be
broadly classified into two categories which are non-parametric Budyko type equations
(Budyko, 1963, 1974; Oldekop, 1911; Pike, 1964; Schreiber, 1904; Turc, 1954) and parametric
Budyko type equations (Choudhury, 1999; Fu et al., 2007; Mezentsev, 1955; Wang & Tang,
2014; Yang et al., 2007; Yang et al., 2008; Zhang et al., 2001). Parametric Budyko type
equations effectively represent various catchment properties (Guo et al., 2019; Jiang et al.,
2015), therefore used in many hydrologic and water resource management studies (Donohue
et al., 2012; Liang et al., 2015; Sinha et al., 2019; Wang & Hejazi, 2011). In addition, some
studies use the concept of runoff sensitivity or elasticity to evaluate the impact of climate
change and catchment characteristics (Sankarasubramanian et al., 2001; Schaake, 1990). A
runoff sensitivity approach based on the Budyko hypothesis has been used in the Weihe,
Wushan, and Shetang catchments of China (Guo et al., 2014). The results show that 23−29%
of the total runoff reduction is contributed by climatic change whereas, 71−77% is contributed
by catchment changes in these basins. A streamflow partitioning study conducted on the
Poyang Lake catchment showed a, 105−212.1% increase in streamflow due to climatic
variability and a 5−112.1% decrease in streamflow due to human activities and land use
changes (Ye et al., 2013). A study on the Taoer River basin, in China, found that 45% of the
total streamflow reduction is contributed by climate change and 55% of the total streamflow
reduction is contributed by anthropogenic activities (Li et al., 2010). The impact of climate
change and anthropogenic activities on runoff for a river basin in northeast China has been
assessed (Zhang et al., 2011). The results show that climate change contributes 43% of the
Page 2
total runoff reduction and anthropogenic activities contribute 57% of the total runoff reduction.
Therefore, different analytical methods with the use of various spatial and temporal datasets
lead to substantially different conclusions in various studies. In the context of Indian river
basins, exploratory studies on streamflow partitioning are scarce. Being a rapidly developing
region under a changing climate, it is essential to study the hydrological response of climate
and catchment characteristics when partitioning the streamflow at the basin scale (Sinha et al.,
2018). In the present study parametric Budyko-FY (Fu et al., 2007; Yang et al., 2007) equation
is used to partition runoff change over the Brahmani-Baitarani river basin of eastern India. This
study addresses the distinct impacts of climate change and the significance of catchment
variability for two selected data-scarce river sub-basins (Swain et al., 2020). Since these river
sub-basins are an agriculturally dominated region of eastern India, changes in streamflow and
other elements of water balance are crucial to portray the risk of water scarcity.
2.1 Budyko hypothesis
The fundamental equation of water balance in a river basin can be expressed as follows:
𝑃 − 𝑄 − 𝐸 = 𝛥𝑆/𝛥𝑡 (1)
where, P is precipitation, Q is the surface runoff, E is the actual evapotranspiration, 𝛥𝑆 is the

change in water storage for the time step 𝛥𝑡. The change in water storage for a catchment is
assumed to be negligible (𝛥𝑆 = 0) in the long term (about 5−10 years) (Sinha et al., 2018).
Therefore, actual evapotranspiration is derived from the difference between precipitation and
surface runoff (Eqn. 2).
𝐸 =𝑃−𝑄 (2)
Budyko (1974), demonstrated a relationship between the evaporation ratio and dryness index
expressed as Eqn 3.
𝜀 = 𝐹(𝜙, 𝜔) (3)
where, 𝜀 is the evaporation ratio, defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration and
𝐸
precipitation, 𝑖. 𝑒. , 𝜀 = 𝑃. 𝜙 is the dryness index expressed as the ratio of potential
𝑃𝐸𝑇
evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation, 𝑖. 𝑒. , 𝜙 = 𝑃 , and ω represents different
catchment characteristics. If ϕ > 1, the evapotranspiration is restricted by the water supply, and
if ϕ < 1, the evapotranspiration is limited by total available energy (ref. Figure 1).
In this study, a popular Budyko framework, the Budyko-FY function (Fu et al., 2007; Yang et
al., 2007) have been considered to describe the relation between evaporation ratio, dryness
index and catchment characteristics of a river basin (Eqn. 4).
Page 3
1/𝜔
𝐸 𝑃𝐸𝑇 𝑃𝐸𝑇 𝜔
=1+ − [1 + ( ) ] (4)
𝑃 𝑃 𝑃
where, ω represents the catchment characteristics of the basin such as anthropogenic activity,
agricultural pattern, land use type, relative infiltration capacity, soil characteristics, etc. The
catchment parameter for this model has been calibrated for this study using station observations
(IMD rainfall, gauge discharge), and satellite derived (GLEAM PET) datasets for each river
basin separately.
2.2 Climate elasticity technique
Climate elasticity is defined as the proportional change in runoff (Q) divided by a proportional
change in climate variables; is considered to be a valuable hypothesis to detect temporal
variability of runoff due to climate change (Sankarasubramanian et al., 2001; Schaake, 1990).
𝜕𝑄
Runoff (Q) sensitivity coefficients are represented by partial derivatives. thus, 𝜕𝑃 is the
𝜕𝑄
sensitivity coefficient of runoff with respect to P, is the sensitivity coefficient of runoff
𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇
𝜕𝑄
with respect to PET, and 𝜕𝑐 is the runoff sensitivity with respect to c. Total differential
equation, assuming that P, PET, and c are independent of each other may be expressed as Eqn.
5.
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝑑𝑄 = 𝑑𝑃 + 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 𝑑𝑃𝐸𝑇 + 𝜕𝑐 𝑑𝑐 (5)
𝜕𝑃
The first two terms right side of the Eqn. 5 are used to calculate runoff variation due to climate
𝜕𝑄
change, whereas the term 𝜕𝑐 𝑑𝑐 is used to calculate the runoff fluctuation due to catchment
change.
A complementary relationship based on the Budyko hypothesis is used to separate

climate and catchment influence on annual runoff change (Zhou et al., 2016). The
complementary relationship between the partial elasticity of runoff with respect to P and with
respect to PET is shown in Eqn. 6, assuming they are independent of each other.
𝜕𝑄/𝑄 𝜕𝑄/𝑄
+ =1 (6)
𝜕𝑃/𝑃 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇/𝑃𝐸𝑇
where runoff (Q) is the difference between P and E in water balance (Eqn. 2). Eqn. 6 can be
expressed as
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝑄= 𝑃 + 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 𝑃𝐸𝑇 (7)
𝜕𝑃
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
and 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 are runoff sensitivity which can be determined for the Budyko-FY model using
𝜕𝑃
Eqn. 1 and Eqn. 4. Based on complementary relation the runoff change may be calculated as
Page 4
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝑑𝑄 = 𝑑𝑃 + 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 𝑑𝑃𝐸𝑇 + 𝑑 (𝜕𝑃 ) 𝑃 + 𝑑 (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) 𝑃𝐸𝑇 (8)
𝜕𝑃
2.3 Partitioning the effect of climate change and catchment change
State space (P, PET, E) has been considered to express the water-energy balance for a specific
watershed. Let the initial state be A (P1, PE1, E1) and final state be D (P2, PE2, E2). Runoff (Q)
and catchment characteristics c, change from Q1 and c1 to Q2 and c2 respectively from the initial
state to the final state. Similarly, sensitivity coefficients change from the initial state of
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
(𝜕𝑃 ) and (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) to (𝜕𝑃 ) and (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) of the final state respectively (H. Yang et al., 2008;
1 1 2 2
Zhou et al., 2016). Figure 1 depicts more details about state space change from initial to the
final state.
The runoff change (𝛥𝑄) can be precisely broken down into two components- a forward
approximation for the contribution of climate variation and a backward approximation for the
contribution of catchment variation,
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝛥𝑄 = (𝜕𝑃 ) 𝛥𝑃 + (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) 𝛥𝑃𝐸𝑇 + 𝑃2 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃 ) + 𝑃𝐸2 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) (9)
1 1
and in a similar way backward approximation for the contribution of climate variation and a
forward approximation for the contribution of catchment variation,
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝛥𝑄 = ( ) 𝛥𝑃 + ( ) 𝛥𝑃𝐸𝑇 + 𝑃1 𝛥 ( ) + 𝑃𝐸𝑇1 𝛥 ( ) (10)
𝜕𝑃 2 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 2 𝜕𝑃 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇
The changes between the ending and starting states of a variable are denoted by the difference
operator (Δ), for example, ΔPET = PET2 −PET1. According to Eqn. 9 and 10, the estimated
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
contribution of climate change to ΔQ varies from [(𝜕𝑃 ) 𝛥𝑃 + (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) 𝛥𝑃𝐸𝑇] to
1 1
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
[(𝜕𝑃 ) 𝛥𝑃 + (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) 𝛥𝑃𝐸𝑇]. Whereas, the contribution of catchment changes varies from
2 2
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
[𝑃2 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃 ) + 𝑃𝐸𝑇2 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇)] to [𝑃1 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃 ) + 𝑃𝐸𝑇1 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇)]. Within these upper and lower
boundaries, the contributions of climate change and catchment change vary with different
linear combinations of Eqn. 9 and 10, but the sum of the two always equals the overall change
in the runoff.
A weighting factor (α) is introduced to generate ranges of possible values of contribution to

𝛥𝑄 from climate change (𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 ) and catchment change (𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 ). The weighting
factor (α) takes a value of 0, 0.5, and 1. While ΔQ can be written as
𝛥𝑄 = 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 + 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 (11)
where the contribution of climate changes to 𝛥𝑄 represented by 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 ,
Page 5
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝛼 [(𝜕𝑃 ) 𝛥𝑃 + (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) 𝛥𝑃𝐸𝑇] + (1 − 𝛼) [(𝜕𝑃 ) 𝛥𝑃 + (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) 𝛥𝑃𝐸𝑇]
1 1 2 2
(12)
Similarly, the contribution of catchment changes to 𝛥𝑄 is represented by 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 ,

𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 𝛼 [𝑃2 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃 ) + 𝑃𝐸𝑇2 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇)] + (1 − 𝛼) [𝑃1 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃 ) + 𝑃𝐸𝑇1 𝛥 (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇)]
(13)
𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 and 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 varies linearly with the values of the weighting factor. For extreme
values of the weighting factor, i.e., α = 0 or 1, 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 indicates the upper and lower bound
respectively. Thus, when 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 reaches its lower bound, 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 reaches its upper
bound. However, the sum of the 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 and 𝛥𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 will be always equal to 𝛥𝑄 for
each value of the weighting factor. This above-mentioned theory is used in the present study
to assess the impacts of climate change and catchment change on runoff variation.
Figure 1 Transition from initial to final state for the Budyko-FY model
2.4.1 Brahmani-Baitarani river basin
The study area consists of Brahmani and Baitarani rivers which flow eastwards over the states
of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha and discharge into the Bay of Bengal. The areal extent
of this river basin is 50,945 Sq. km which is nearly 1.7% geographical area of India. The
Brahmani sub-basin (BRM) and Baitarani sub-basin (BAI) cover 39,033 sq. km and 11,912 sq.
km of landmass respectively. A major part of this river basin is covered by agricultural land
type which covers approximately 52% of the total area. In this study, gauging stations are
selected based on the following criteria (i) availability of long records of reliable daily
discharge data (ii) gauging points located close to the basin outlet and (iii) absence of major
diversion structures upstream. More details about the latitudinal and longitudinal extent of
Page 6
these two sub-basins and the names of gauging stations are provided in Table 1. The study area
map of the BRM and BAI basins is shown in Figure 2. The mean annual precipitation for BRM
during our study period is 1417.5 mm and for BAI is 1563.1 mm.
Figure 2 Study area map of Brahmani-Baitarani river basins
Table 1 Details of Brahmani-Baitarani river sub-basins
River Latitudinal and Station for Study Drainage

River
Sub-basin longitudinal extent discharge data Period Area (km2)
Brahmani Brahmani- 20° 28 ́− 23° 36 ́N and
Jenapur 1990 - 2019 39,033
(BRM) Baitarani 83° 53 ́− 86° 52 ́E
Baitarani Brahmani- 20° 41 ́− 22° 15 ́N and
Anandapur 1990 - 2019 11,912
(BAI) Baitarani 85° 10 ́− 86° 47 ́E
The daily precipitation (P) data are obtained from gridded observations of the India
Meteorological Department (IMD) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° (Pai et al., 2014).
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) datasets are obtained from the Global Land Evaporation
Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° (Martens et al., 2017;
Miralles et al., 2011). Although the resolution of both the P and PET datasets are the same, grid
intersection points are staggered as shown in Figure 3. Daily precipitation observations at each
grid intersection point are combined to produce an annual series, and the mean annual
precipitation is calculated as the average of the precipitation of all grids falling within the basin.
A similar procedure is followed to calculate the mean annual PET from GLEAM. The daily
discharge data (Q) is obtained from the India-WRIS (Water Resources Information System)
portal (https://indiawris.gov.in) for the gauging stations Jenapur and Anandapur situated in the
Page 7
Brahmani and Baitarani sub-basins respectively. The details of the datasets used in this study
and their sources are presented in Table 2.
Table 2 Sources, the spatial and temporal resolution of the datasets used in this study.
Parameter Source Temporal Resolution Spatial

Resolution
Precipitation IMD (India Meteorological Daily (aggregated to 0.25° × 0.25°
Department) (Pai et al., annual)
2014)
Potential GLEAM (Global Land Daily (aggregated to 0.25° × 0.25°
Evapotranspiration Evaporation Amsterdam annual)
Model) (Martens et al.,
2017; Miralles et al., 2011)
Runoff India-WRIS (Water
Resources Information Daily (aggregated to −
System) portal annual)
(https://indiawris.gov.in)
3.1 Runoff and climatic characteristics of the basin
In the present study, the entire study period has been divided into sub-periods of five years.
Sub-period-wise variation of runoff, P, and PET for Brahmani and Baitarani sub-basins are
shown in Figure 4. Mean annual precipitation varies in the range of 1417.5 ± 153 (mean ±
standard deviation) for BRM and 1563.1 ± 128.3 for BAI. Similarly, the Mean annual PET
fluctuates in the range of 1584.5 ± 80 and 1612.1 ± 67.2 for BRM and BAI respectively. Both
mean annual P and PET were found to be marginally higher for BAI during the study period.
Actual evapotranspiration can be calculated as the difference between precipitation and runoff
over a 5-year-long sub-period, neglecting soil moisture and storage changes as discussed in the
methodology section (Eqn. 2). Climatic parameters and calibrated catchment characteristics
(ω) for different sub-periods of BRM and BAI are presented in Table 3a and Table 3b,
respectively. Runoff coefficients (Rc) of BRM and BAI are 0.28 ± 0.03 and 0.25 ± 0.04
respectively.
The spatial distribution of the mean annual dryness index (ϕ) for the study basins is depicted
in Figure 3. The dryness index for BRM is in the range of 1.05 ± 0.04, and for BAI it varies in
the range of 1.03 ± 0.07. Figure 4 illustrates the variation of runoff coefficients with the dryness
index of the basin for different sub-periods. The results show that the runoff coefficients
decrease as the dryness index of the basin increase.
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Table 3a. Average precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (Q),
evapotranspiration (E), runoff coefficients (Rc), and catchment characteristics for each sub-
period of BRM.
Sub- Year P PET Corresponding Q E Rc ω
periods Range (mm) (mm) runoff (mm) (mm)
T1 1990−1994 1570.75 1553.55 Q1 503.61 1067.15 0.32 2.52
T2 1995−1999 1585.28 1596.38 Q2 467.25 1118.03 0.29 2.66
T3 2000−2004 1496.84 1600.22 Q3 428.37 1068.47 0.29 2.58
T4 2005−2009 1440.95 1583.15 Q4 432.78 1008.18 0.30 2.42
T5 2010−2014 1506.68 1587.01 Q5 374.37 1132.31 0.25 2.93
T6 2015−2019 1466.23 1586.68 Q6 336.64 1129.60 0.23 3.02
Table 3b. Average precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (Q),
evapotranspiration (E), runoff coefficients (Rc), and catchment characteristics for each sub-
period of BAI.
Sub- Year P PET Corresponding Q E Rc ω
periods Range (mm) (mm) runoff (mm) (mm)
T1 1990−1994 1570.75 1559.28 Q1 459.55 1111.2 0.29 2.72
T2 1995−1999 1585.28 1617.58 Q2 488.78 1096.5 0.31 2.53
T3 2000−2004 1496.84 1631.68 Q3 310.76 1186.07 0.21 3.23
T4 2005−2009 1728.17 1601.45 Q4 460.55 1267.62 0.27 3.26
T5 2010−2014 1531.34 1622.57 Q5 357.45 1173.88 0.23 3.06
T6 2015−2019 1466.23 1640.27 Q6 299.86 1166.37 0.2 3.16
Figure 3 Mean annual aridity index for Brahmani and Baitarani river sub-basins. The black
star-shaped grid intersection points represent the GLEAM potential evapotranspiration
dataset and the red triangular-shaped grid points correspond to the IMD precipitation dataset.
Page 9
Figure 4 Annual runoff, precipitation (P), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) variations
in the Brahmani- Baitarani river sub-basins.
Figure 5 Variation of runoff coefficients with dryness index
3.2 Runoff sensitivity for Budyko-FY model

𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
Runoff sensitivity with respect to precipitation (𝜕𝑃 ) and potential evapotranspiration (𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇)
𝜕𝑄
for both sub-basins are presented in Table 4. Mean of BRM and BAI is 0.62 and 0.61,
𝜕𝑃
𝜕𝑄
respectively. is always negative indicating an inverse relationship between Q and PET;
𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇
𝜕𝑄
mean 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 for BRM is −0.33 and BAI is −0.35. Figure 6 depicts the variation of runoff
sensitivity with respect to the dryness index (ϕ). Runoff sensitivity coefficients with respect to
precipitation are more responsive than runoff sensitivity with respect to potential
𝜕𝑄
evapotranspiration. 𝜕𝑃 decreases with increase of dryness index, for BRM (R2 = 0.61, p-value
𝜕𝑄
= 0.065) and BAI (R2 = 0.91, p-value = 0.003) (Figure 6a), whereas, the 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇 increases with
increase of dryness index, for BRM (R2 = 0.81, p-value = 0.014) and BAI (R2 = 0.87, p-value
Page 10
= 0.006) (Figure 6b).

The distribution of evaporation ratio (E/P) with respect to catchment characteristics (ω) is
shown in Figure 7. The evaporation ratio shows a significant positive correlation with ω
indicating that as vegetation coverage raise, actual evapotranspiration also increases.
Table 4 Sensitivity coefficients of runoff with respect to P and PET using Budyko FY for each
sub-period of river basins.
BRM BAI
Sub Period 𝝏𝑸 𝝏𝑸 𝝏𝑸 𝝏𝑸
𝝏𝑷 𝝏𝑷𝑬𝑻 𝝏𝑷 𝝏𝑷𝑬𝑻
T1 0.66 −0.35 0.65 −0.36
T2 0.64 −0.35 0.65 −0.33
T3 0.62 −0.31 0.56 −0.32
T4 0.62 −0.29 0.67 −0.44
T5 0.60 −0.34 0.59 −0.34
T6 0.58 −0.32 0.55 −0.30
Figure 6 Sensitivity coefficients of R with respect to P and PET for Budyko FY model.
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Figure 7 Catchment characteristics (ω) versus evapotranspiration ratio.
3.3 Sub-periodic variation in runoff as a result of climate and catchment changes

Runoff change (i.e., observed ΔQ) between two adjacent sub-periods of a river basin is obtained
by the difference between the succeeding state and the preceding state, such as 𝛥𝑄1 = 𝑄2 −
𝑄1. Again, estimated ΔQ for a particular weighting factor α can be obtained from the sum of
△Qclimate and △Qcatchment. In this study, the △Qclimate and △Qcatchment are obtained from the
𝜕𝑄 𝜕𝑄
runoff sensitivity coefficients (i.e., 𝜕𝑃 and 𝜕𝑃𝐸𝑇) as discussed in the earlier sections. △Qclimate
and △Qcatchment varies with the adopted weighting factor α, but the sum of △Qclimate and
△Qcatchment is always equal to ΔQ for a given sub-period regardless of the weighting factor α.
Table 5a presents the △Qclimate and △Qcatchment for different values of α for BRM. The
corresponding values for BAI are shown in Table 5b. The estimated ΔQ for BAI (i.e., −178.02
to 149.79 mm) fluctuates more during the study period than that for BRM (i.e., −58.41 to 4.40
mm). ΔQclimate in BRM varies between (−58.36, 39.63), (−57.18, 38.94), and (−55.99, 38.24)
mm for α equal to 1, 0.5, and 0 respectively. Similarly, with α equal to 1, 0.5, and 0 for BRM,
the values of △Qcatchment varies between (−98.04, 19.48), (−97.34, 18.30), and (−96.64, 17.11)
mm. The range of storage changes in BAI is greater than that of BRM. The range of ΔQclimate
is (−141.15, 139.06), (−132.14, 153.65), and (−123.12, 168.25) mm with α equal to 1, 0.5, and
0, respectively, in BAI. The range of variation of △Qcatchment in for α equal to 1, 0.5, and 0 are
(−116.08, 40.74), (−120.06, 39.97), and (−124.04, 39.20) mm, respectively.
The results indicate the importance of partitioning the contribution to runoff change for a river
basin. For instance, at BRM runoff variation due to climate change with α = 0.5, ΔQclimate, 2 =
−57.18 mm indicating a negative contribution to runoff variation, whereas due to catchment
change, ΔQcatchment, 2 = 18.30 mm represents a positive contribution to runoff variation. On the
other hand, in BAI, the runoff fluctuation due to climate change with α = 0.5, ΔQclimate, 3 =
153.65 mm indicating a positive contribution to runoff fluctuation and ΔQcatchment, 3 = −3.86
mm indicating a negative contribution to runoff fluctuation. This differs from some previous
studies in other river basins where the effects of both climate change and catchment change
were found to be unidirectional (Bao et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2006).
Page 12
Table 5a. △Qclimate (mm) and △Qcatchment (mm) for α = 1, 0.5, and 0 respectively, and observed
and estimated △Q (mm) for BRM.
α=1 α = 0.5 α=0 Estimated Observed

ΔQclimate ΔQcatchment ΔQclimate ΔQcatchment ΔQclimate ΔQcatchment ΔQ ΔQ
ΔQ1 −5.22 −31.13 −5.37 −30.98 −5.52 −30.83 −36.35 −36.35
ΔQ2 −58.36 19.48 −57.18 18.30 −55.99 17.11 −38.88 −38.88
ΔQ3 −29.30 33.70 −29.49 33.90 −29.68 34.09 4.40 4.40
ΔQ4 39.63 −98.04 38.94 −97.34 38.24 −96.64 −58.41 −58.41
ΔQ5 −24.22 −13.52 −23.74 −13.99 −23.27 −14.46 −37.73 −37.73
Table 5b. △Qclimate (mm) and △Qcatchment (mm) for α = 1, 0.5 and 0, respectively and observed
and estimated △Q (mm) for BAI.
α=1 α = 0.5 α=0 Estimated Observed

ΔQclimate ΔQcatchment ΔQclimate ΔQclimate ΔQcatchment ΔQclimate ΔQ ΔQ
ΔQ1 −11.50 40.74 −10.74 39.97 −9.97 39.20 29.23 29.23
ΔQ2 −61.94 −116.08 −57.96 −120.06 −53.98 −124.04 −178.02 −178.02
ΔQ3 139.06 10.73 153.65 −3.86 168.25 −18.46 149.79 149.79
ΔQ4 −141.15 38.05 −132.14 29.04 −123.12 20.02 −103.10 −103.10
ΔQ5 −44.32 −13.27 −42.61 −14.98 −40.90 −16.69 −57.59 −57.59
3.4. Impacts of climate and catchment changes on Runoff variation
To evaluate the comprehensive impact of climate change and catchment change on runoff, the
first sub-period (T1 ~ 1990−1994) is considered as the reference for both of these river basins.
The runoff difference between sub-period Ti+1 and T1 due to climate and catchment change can
′ ′
be expressed as △ 𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒,𝑖 = ∑𝑖1△ 𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒,𝑖 and △ 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑖 = ∑𝑖1△ 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑖
respectively, where, i is the sub-period index (i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and △ 𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒,𝑖 and △
𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑖 are corresponding runoff differences due to climate and catchment change
′
between two adjacent sub-periods. Figure 8 depicts the distribution of the △ 𝑄𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒,𝑖 and
precipitation for BRM and BAI. It indicates that precipitation has a positive correlation with
′
runoff variation due to climate change. The variation of △ 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑖 and catchment
′
characteristics (ω) are shown in Figure 9. △ 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑖 has a negative correlation with the
catchment characteristics of the basin. The runoff difference between different values of α
increases gradually as we move from the initial to the final sub-period (Figure 8 and Figure 9).
This is because we have assumed that changes in soil moisture and water storage between two
neighboring periods are negligible. This results in small errors for neighboring sub-periods and
accumulates errors over time. However, for the Brahmani river basin, the runoff differences
between various values of α are very less or negligible.
Page 13
Figure 8 Changes in ΔR’climate and P across the sub-periods.
Figure 9 Changes in ΔQ’catchment and ω across the sub-periods.
3.5 Partitioning the effects of climate and catchment changes
Figure 10 depicts the runoff difference between the initial sub-period (T1) and a specific sub-
period (Ti) due to climate change and catchment change. Table 7 summarizes the contribution
of climate change and catchment change to the total runoff variation between the initial and
final sub-period. In Figure 10, for a sub-basin the bars between sub-period 1 and 2 represents
△ 𝑄′1, and between sub-period 5 and 6 represents △ 𝑅′5. Between two sub-periods, there are
six bars, the first two bars are runoff change due to climate change and catchment change
corresponding to α = 1, and so on. The Sum of these two bars will give the comprehensive
contribution to runoff change (△ 𝑄′). The bars between sub-period 3 and 4 (i.e., △ 𝑅′3) For
BRM show a positive contribution to △ 𝑅′3 due to catchment change and negative
contributions to △ 𝑅′3 due to climate change. Similarly, △ 𝑅′1 for BAI is positive and majorly
contributed by catchment change in the basin, whereas climate change contributes negatively.
Again, △ 𝑅′3 for BAI is negligible because the contribution of climate change (positive) and
catchment change (negative) are of equal magnitude and in the opposite order. Hence, the
relative contribution of climate and catchment on runoff variation fluctuates spatially (across
the river basins) and temporally (across the sub-period for a specific basin).
The runoff at the basin outlet for both the sub-basins has decreased in the last sub-period as
Page 14
compared to the initial sub-period. Both climate and catchment contributions are negative for
runoff reduction during this study period (Table 7). At BRM the runoff reduction is −166.97
mm (−33 %) compared to the initial sub-period. However, for BRM there is no fluctuation in
the contribution of runoff change for different values of α. Runoff decreased by −159.69 mm
(−35 %) between initial and final sub-periods at BAI and fluctuated for different values of α as
shown in Table 7.
Table 7 Total runoff variation between initial and final sub-period and contribution of
climate and catchment
Name Runoff variation Contribution to runoff variation (in %)

of Total Percentage α=1 α = 0.5 α=0
river variation variation Climate Catchment Climate Catchment Climate Catchment
basin
BRM −166.97 −33 −15 −18 −15 −18 −15 −18
BAI −159.69 −35 −26 −9 −20 −15 −13 −22
Figure 10 Impact of climate change and catchment change on runoff across sub-periods
Page 15
4. Conclusions
This study concentrates on the attribution of runoff variation due to climate change and
catchment characteristics for Brahmani and Baitarani river basins in eastern India. A
complementary technique based on the Budyko hypothesis has been used to partition the
impact of climate change and catchment characteristics on runoff variation. The study period
is divided into five-year sub-periods to investigate the temporal variation of climate change
and catchment characteristics on the river basins. Precipitation, potential evapotranspiration,
and runoff from station observation and satellite datasets have been used in this study. Different
weighting factor (0, 0.5, and 1) is used to partition the influence of climate change and
catchment characteristics on runoff variation. The results indicate that the runoff variation for
the Brahmani river basin does not fluctuate for different weighting factors, unlike the Baitarani
river basin.
In general, the runoff variation due to climate change is proportional to the mean annual
precipitation (P) of the basin whereas, the runoff variation due to catchment characteristics is
inversely proportional to the catchment parameter (ω). Additionally, the contribution of climate
change and catchment characteristics to runoff change varies temporally and spatially. For the
Brahmani river basin catchment change is the major contributor to the runoff variation;
whereas, in the Baitarani river basin climate change is the major contributor to runoff change
while considering a weighting factor of 0.5. Although it is difficult to estimate the precise
contribution of climate change and catchment changes on runoff variation, this study presents
upper and lower bounds on the magnitude of climate change and catchment change on the
Brahmani and Baitarani river basin, which are essential for informed hydrological decision
making.
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An Evaluation of Future Changes in Hydroclimate Extremes across India

Subhasmita Dash1, Riya Dutta2, Rajib Maity3
1
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Kharagpur, Kharagpur - 721302, India; Email: subhasmitadash09@gmail.com
2
Post-doctoral Research Fellow, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of
Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur - 721302, India; Email: riyadutta.iitkgp@gmail.com
3
Kharagpur, Kharagpur - 721302, India; Email: rajib@civil.iitkgp.ac.in
Abstract
Warming induced alterations in the hydrological cycle have resulted in frequent and intensified
hydroclimate extremes. The changing nature of extremes is expected to continue further due to
the influence of potential future warming scenarios. This study attempts to evaluate the
historical and future change in hydroclimate extremes across India through a probability based
approach. Towards this, the observed and future projections of daily precipitation and
temperature are utilized. The future projections are considered from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs), i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Results indicate that the extent of
change in the probability of precipitation and temperature extremes increases with higher
quantiles. Considering the 99th quantile, an increase in the spatial extent of area covering
extreme precipitation is noticed across the eastern coast, north-east and western regions. It is
also noticed that the change in the temperature extremes are spatially more consistent as
compared to the precipitation extremes. This study provides useful insights towards changes in
the probability of hydroclimate extremes under the future warming conditions.
Keywords: Precipitation; Temperature; Extremes; CMIP6; SSPs; Climate change.
1. Introduction
Climate change at a regional scale is primarily perceived through changes in climate extremes
as those are outside the bounds of the past climate. Climate change is inherently linked to
alterations in the hydrological cycle, which in turn has induced changes in the extreme
characteristics of different hydroclimate variables. Consequently, shifts in the frequency,
intensity and spatial distribution of hydroclimate extremes, such as floods, droughts, heatwaves
etc. are evidenced during past several decades around the globe (Bezerra et al., 2018; Klein
Tank et al., 2006; Shrestha et al., 2017), leading to substantial negative consequences on the
societal and environmental systems. Under the potential future warming, hydroclimate
extremes are anticipated to be severe which further increases the associated damages (Li et al.,
2021; Yaduvanshi et al., 2021). For instance, global economic losses due to riverine floods
alone are projected to increase from US$351 billion in 1996-2015 to US$597 billion in 2016-
2035 (Willner et al., 2018). As a result, there is a huge societal and scientific interest to quantify
and understand future changes in the extreme events.
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Extremes lie in the tails of the climate variable's probability distribution. In a warmer climate,
changes in the distribution of different hydroclimate variables are expected (O’Gorman, 2012).
Understanding potential changes in the occurrence of these events is vital for planning future
mitigation and adaption strategies. To this end, the overall objective of this study is to evaluate
spatio-temporal changes in the probability of extreme events considering precipitation and
temperature across Indian mainland during the historical (1971-2020) and future (2026-2100)
time periods. A probability ratio based approach is utilized and changes in the hot and wet
extreme event probability is assessed at different quantiles of the probability distribution.
Towards this, the climate observations and climate model simulations from CMIP6 archive are
considered.
2. Data and Methods
2.1 Observed Data

Daily gridded precipitation data with spatial resolution of 0.25° (latitude) × 0.25° (longitude)
with time period 1901-2020 and maximum daily temperature data with spatial resolution of 1°
(latitude) × 1° (longitude) for the period 1951-2020 are collected from India Meteorological
Department (IMD). The temperature data is re-gridded to the same scale of precipitation by
using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method.
2.2 Climate Model Data

Future projections of daily temperature and precipitation are obtained from NASA Earth
Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) archive (Thrasher et
al., 2022). The archive is comprised of downscaled values with a spatial resolution of 0.25° ×
0.25° for the historical and future time period, developed utilizing the outputs from multiple
General Circulation Models (GCMs), taking part in Climate Model Intercomparison Project,
Phase 6 (CMIP6). Downscaling was carried out using the Bias-Correction Spatial
Disaggregation (BCSD) method, which is a statistical downscaling algorithm. For our study, a
total of seven GCMs are chosen and corresponding downscaled data for the aforementioned
variables are used. Few basic details regarding the chosen models are provided in Table 1 along
with their modelling groups and countries. Simulated data of daily maximum temperature and
precipitation are obtained for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP1-2.6
(+2.6 Wm-2; low forcing sustainability pathway), SSP2-4.5 (+4.5 Wm-2; medium forcing
middle-of-the-road pathway), SSP3-7.0 (+7.0 Wm-2; medium- to high-end forcing pathway),
and SSP5-8.5 (+8.5 Wm-2; high-end forcing pathway) (Cook et al., 2020). The first realization
(r1i1p1) corresponding to each of the models is utilized for analysis.
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Table 1: Global Climate Models from CMIP6 archive along with corresponding Institutions
and Country of origin.
Sl. No. Model Modelling group (Country)

1 BCC-CSM2-MR Beijing Climate Center (China)
2 EC-Earth3 EC-Earth-Consortium (Europe)
3 GFDL-ESM4 NOAA-GFDL (USA)
4 INM-CM4-8 Institute for Numerical Mathematics (Russia)
5 MPI-ESM1-2-HR Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (Germany)
6 MRI-ESM2-0 Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)
7 NorESM2-MM NorESM Climate modeling Consortium (Norway)
2.3 Methodology
Change in the extreme event probability is quantified considering daily precipitation and
maximum temperature for historical (1951-2020) and future (2026-2100) time periods. A brief
outline on the overall methodology is illustrated in Figure 1. The historical time period 1971-
2020 is divided into two 25-year epochs, i.e. T1 (1971-1995) and T2 (1996-2020), wherein T1
is the reference climatological period. Similarly, the future period is divided into three 25-year
epochs, namely F1 (near future: 2026-2050), F2 (middle future: 2051-2075) and F3 (far future:
2076-2100). For the future analysis, T2 (recent past) is considered as the reference period.
Further, precipitation (on wet days, i.e., precipitation > 1 mm) and temperature values lying
below the 25th percentile threshold corresponding to a specific grid location are excluded from
the analysis.
Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution (Boudrissa et al., 2017; Li et al., 2021) is fitted
to the daily climate data for the reference and the subsequent period. Having fitted the GEV
distribution, the temperature or precipitation extremes for different quantiles, and their changes
can be evaluated. Corresponding to the nth quantile of the fitted distribution for reference
period, actual value of the concerned variable is estimated through the inverse GEV function.
Following this, the change in the exceedance probability between the reference and subsequent
periods are computed in terms of probability ratio (𝑃𝑅∝ ).
𝛽
𝑃𝑅∝ = 𝛼 (1)
where, 𝑃𝑅∝ is the Probability Ratio expressing change in the exceedance probability of
considered extreme event; 𝛼 and 𝛽 refers to the exceedance probability of the event in the
reference and subsequent periods, respectively. Thereby, 𝑃𝑅∝ = 1 indicates no change in
extreme event probability, 𝑃𝑅∝ > 1 denotes an increase in extreme event probability, and
𝑃𝑅∝ < 1 marks a decrease in the extreme event probability.
Page 3
Figure 1: Methodological Outline
3.1 Changes in the Probability of Historical Precipitation and Temperature Extremes
Changes in the extreme event probability for daily precipitation and temperature between the
historical time periods, i.e., 1971-1995 (T1) and 1996-2020 (T2) are evaluated using
probability ratio (PR) for the Indian mainland. Summer season (March to May) is considered
for assessing changes in the hot extremes as the country experiences most of the heat related
extremes during this season. Similarly, precipitation extremes are evaluated for the monsoon
season (June to September), the reason being major portion of the annual total precipitation is
received during the monsoon season across many parts of India and agricultural activities in
the country pre-dominantly rely on the monsoonal precipitation pattern. Increased hot extreme
probability (in terms of PR) during T2 with respect to T1 is noticed across the country. More
prominent increase is observed over the southern peninsular and northwest regions, which are
the warmer regions in the country in general. However, the northern and eastern regions are
noticed with decreased hot extreme occurrences. Extreme precipitation event probability has
also increased across many parts, however, with considerable spatial variation. Further,
spatially more consistent changes are noticed for the hot extremes as compared to the heavy
precipitation events.
Page 4
Figure 2: Historical changes in probability of a) temperature extreme events during the

summer season (March-May) and b) precipitation extreme events during the monsoon season
(June-September), expressed through Probability Ratio (PR) at the 99th quantile considering
the periods, T1: 1971-1995 and T2: 1996-2020.
3.2 Changes in the Probability of Future Precipitation and Temperature Extremes
Future changes in the probability of daily temperature and precipitation extremes exceeding
the 99th quantile for three future periods, i.e., F1: 2026-2050, F2: 2051-2075 and F3: 2076-
2100, with reference to the historical period, T2: 1996-2020 are evaluated under four Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Under the
SSP5-8.5 scenario, increasing extreme event probability for hot extremes (Figure 3) during the
summer season (March-May) is noticed across the entire Indian mainland. Higher PR values
are noticed over south-western peninsular regions during F1, F2 and F3. Less change in the hot
extreme probability is noticed across the northern regions of the country.
Figure 3: Changes in the probability of temperature extreme events expressed through

Probability Ratio (PR) during summer season (March-May) between historical (T2: 1996-
2020) and future (F1: 2026-2050, F2: 2051-2075 and F3: 2076-2100) time periods
considering the 99th quantile under SSP 5-8.5 scenario.
Page 5
Considering all four SSPs (Figure 4), higher extent of changes is obtained for SSP5-8.5 with
respect to the three future periods. Further, in case of individual SSPs, larger increase in spatial
extent with higher PR values gradually increased from the near future (F1) to far future (F3)
period. Exception is noticed for SSP1-2.6, wherein the same is noticed during the middle future
(F2) period. Further, in the near future period, out of all SSPs, SSP3-7.0 shows the least change
in probability of hot extremes across the country. Spatial pattern corresponding to larger and
smaller increase in the PR is nearly similar for respective time periods across the four SSPs.
Figure 4: Changes in the probability of temperature extreme events expressed through

Probability Ratio (PR) during the summer season (March-May) between historical (T2:
1996-2020) and near future (F1: 2026-2050), middle future (F2: 2051-2075) and far future
(F3: 2076-2100) time periods at 99th quantile under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs), i.e., SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5 scenario.
Page 6
Considering the monsoon season (June-September) for the three future periods under SSP5-
8.5, increased probability of heavy precipitation is noticed across most of the country (Figure
5), apart from few regions including northwest and eastern parts during the near future (F1). In
the middle (F2) and far future (F3), relatively higher increase is going to be experienced over
the wet regions of the country including western ghats, Indo-Gangetic plains, eastern and
northeast regions.
Figure 5: Changes in the probability of precipitation extreme events expressed through

Probability Ratio (PR) during monsoon season (June-September) between historical (T2:
1996-2020) and future (F1: 2026-2050, F2: 2051-2075 and F3: 2076-2100) time periods
considering the 99th quantile under SSP 5-8.5 scenario.
Considering the near future period (F1), similar spatial pattern of changes is obtained for PR
for all four SSPs (Figure 6). Area with decreasing PR values gets reduced gradually over the
future epochs, except in case of SSP1-2.6. Western ghats region is going to experience larger
increase in heavy precipitation occurrences consistent through most of SSPs and future periods.
Spatial coverage with larger increases in PR gradually extends from SSP1-2.6 through SSP5-
8.5 for all future periods. Further, the maximum probable increases in the extreme precipitation
occurrences is obtained for the SSP5-8.5 during F3 period.
These future changes in precipitation and temperature extremes can pose severe threats towards
the socio-economic conditions of the country. For instance, the agro-economy of India is pre-
dominantly dependent on favourable precipitation and temperature conditions during the
monsoon season. Owing to this, increase in the heavy precipitation frequency during monsoon
season can impart substantial adverse effects on the agricultural activities in the future.
Page 7
Figure 6: Changes in the probability of precipitation extreme events expressed through

Probability Ratio (PR) during the monsoon season (June-September) between historical (T2:
1996-2020) and near future (F1: 2026-2050), middle future (F2: 2051-2075) and far future
(F3: 2076-2100) time periods at 99th quantile under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs), i.e., SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5 scenario.
Page 8
4. Conclusions
In this study, historical and future changes in extreme event probability for precipitation and
temperature are explored using probability ratio (PR) based approach across the Indian
mainland. Towards this, two historical periods i.e., 1971-1995 and 1996-2020 and three future
periods i.e., 2026-2050 (near future), 2051-2075 (middle future) and 2076-2100 (far future) are
considered. The future changes are evaluated for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs). Considering the historical periods, increase in extreme event probability is noticed for
both temperature and precipitation across many regions of the country. Hot extreme
occurrences during the summer season have more prominently increased over the southern
peninsular and northwest regions. Spatially more consistent changes are noticed for the hot
extremes as compared to the heavy precipitation events. Towards the middle and far future,
stronger increase in extreme precipitation frequency is going to be experienced over wet
regions of the country. Spatial pattern with increase in probability of precipitation extremes is
similar for the four SSPs. The maximum probable increases in the extreme precipitation
occurrences is obtained under SSP5-8.5 towards the far future period. On the whole,
quantifying the changes in extreme event probability may help in understanding the region-
oriented climatic processes that influence the hydroclimate extremes.
Acknowledgements
The study was partially supported by a sponsored project supported by Ministry of Earth
Science (MoES). We also acknowledge India Meteorological Department (IMD) and NASA
Center for Climate Simulations (NCCS -THREDDS) for the availability of the observed
historical and future climate datasets.
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Non-parametric trend of projected drought over the upper Bundelkhand

region in central India
Vishwakarma A.1*, Choudhary M.K.2, Chauhan M.S.3

1
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology, Bhopal-462003, India, Email: ankur18vishwa@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology, Bhopal-462003, India, Email: mkchoudhary@manit.ac.in
3
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology, Bhopal-462003, India, Email: mschauhan@manit.ac.in
*Corresponding Author
Abstract
Due to climate variability, frequent drought has been the main crisis in the Bundelkhand region
for the last few years. The development of a drought early warning system for Bundelkhand
has become essential. The best sources for reliably forecasting long-term climate are the latest
generation of regional climate models (RCMs) and the global climate models (GCMs). The
models are frequently updated and improved by an international body, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The present study projects the future drought from 2021 to
2100 over Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the Bundelkhand region by using the two key drought
indicators, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study also found the non-parametric trend of projected
drought on multi-scales (seasonal, non-seasonal, and annual). The increasing number of
drought events for the RCP 4.5 scenario is observed as compared to the RCP 8.5 until the year
2100. The increasing trend of annual drought has also been found over most of the UP in
Bundelkhand. Besides, the study region has observed an insignificant trend on monthly and
seasonal scales. The study results will help policymakers to prepare drought mitigation and
management strategies over the study region.
Keywords: Global climate models (GCMs), Mann-Kendall (MK), Regional climate models
(RCMs), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI)
1. Introduction
Climatic trend analysis is a key approach for predicting future climate scenarios (Choudhary
et al., 2009). Non-parametric statistical tests become more suitable than parametric statistical
tests when significant trends in hydrological parameters, such as a change in groundwater
storage, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, infiltration, precipitation, relative humidity, river
flow, surface runoff and temperature are observed.
The trend test can also be performed to assess the trend of drought indices. Some recent
investigations have been carried over the world to examine drought and its trends. Ganguli and
Page 1
Reddy (2014) examined the trends and multivariate frequency of meteorological drought over
the three meteorological subdivisions of western India, using the SPI at the six-month timescale
of 110 years from 1896 to 2005. The SPI trend was examined by the non-parametric Mann–
Kendall trend test. The study also investigated the SPI trend using the split time steps as 1896–
1931, 1932–1966 and 1967–2005. The study concluded that the long-term trend of SPI for 110
years was found to increase over the three subdivisions, western Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch
and Marathwada regions. Golian et al. (2015) utilized the two drought indices, SPI and
Standardized soil moisture index (SSI), to evaluate the severity of drought in Iran using the
MK test. The study concluded that the central and northern parts of Iran were encountering
increasing trends in droughts. Using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for time scales
of 3, 6 and 12 months, Thomas et al. (2015) used the MK test to see the changes in the drought
scenario throughout the Bundelkhand region in central India. Most of the stations of
Bundelkhand showed a decreasing trend of SPI at a 95% significance level. Das et al. (2016)
examined the drought severity trends using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator
over India and concluded rising trends throughout the Monsoon season in the central and east
regions. Byakatonda et al. (2018) evaluated the trend using the MK Z-statistic and Sen's slope
estimator of two meteorological drought indices, SPI and SPEI, over semi-arid Botswana,
Southern Africa, from 1960 to 2016. The study concluded that the wetting trend was shown for
1960-1979 and the drying trend for the remaining duration after 1979 to 2016. Amrit et al.
(2018) assessed the effect of annual temperature variation on drought frequency in different
parts of India. The study found a significant relationship between temperature variation and
drought frequency. The places observed frequent droughts for temperature variation between
40 to 30oC with once in 3 to 6 years. Pathak and Dodamani (2019) introduced the new
groundwater drought concept and evaluated the non-parametric trend of groundwater drought,
i.e., Standardized Groundwater level Index (SGI) in drought-prone Ghataprabha river basin,
India. The Mann-Kendall trend of SGI was found to decrease, with more than 61% of wells,
average significantly declining by 0.21 m. Sharma and Goyal (2020) also assessed the non-
parametric trends of drought using the SPI index with the help of the Mann-Kendall trend test
and Sen’s slope estimator over the 566 stations across India. The study found that droughts are
becoming more frequent in the eastern, north-eastern and extreme southern regions, whereas
droughts are becoming less common in the northern and southern parts of the country. Swain
et al. (2021) evaluated the trend of the meteorological drought index (simplified rainfall index,
RIs) using the modified MK test over the Narmada river basin. Hence, The MK trend test and
Sen’s slope estimator method found the most appropriate methods to effectively assess the
trends of meteorological variables and drought. The main advantage of both tests is that they
can perform at any time scale.
The current study makes use of bias-corrected projected data to predict future drought episodes
and analyze their trend over the UP state in Bundelkhand using the MK test and Sen's slope
estimator. It also examines the impact of the climatic variance.
2. Study Area and Data
The Bundelkhand region comprises seven districts in the state of UP in central India, which are
shown in Table 2. The UP in Bundelkhand lies between 24°00′ N and 26°30′ N latitude and
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78°11′ E and 81°50′ E longitude, which can be seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1 Location of UP in Bundelkhand, India
Based on the conclusions drawn from Vishwakarma et al., 2020 and Vishwakarma et al., 2022,
a bias-corrected CMIP5 GCM model has been found accurate for central India. Daily historical
observed rainfall data from IMD (https://www.imdpune.gov.in/) and maximum and minimum
temperature data from NASA-POWER platform (https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-
viewer/) of 0.5ox0.5o resolution utilized to find the accuracy of CMIP5 GCMs. The description
of the model is presented in Table 1.
Table 1 Detail of CMIP5-GCM model for the study region
S. No. CMIP5 Driving Contributing CORDEX model

Model CMIP5 Modeling Center
Geophysical Fluid
GFDL-ESM2M-IITM-
1. GFDL-ESM2M Dynamics Laboratory
RegCM4
(GFDL), USA
Observed daily data of temperature have been collected for the rain-gauge (RG) stations of the
study region that comes under the seven districts. The description of the stations is displayed
in Table 2.
3. Methodology
3.1 Trend Analysis Using the Statistical Tests
Using data from the past, trend assessment seeks to predict results for the future. To assess if
Page 3
there is a growing or decreasing trend, all independent meteorological indicators, such as

monthly, annual, and seasonal temperatures, rainfalls, etc., may be statistically examined in
two phases. The first employs the MK technique, while the second Sen's slope estimator
(Mondal et al., 2012). In the current study, the increasing or declining trend has been examined
using normalized test statistics (Z) values at a 95% significant level. According to the
statement, the pattern increases when Z is positive and decreases when Z is negative. The slope
of the trend indicates the annual rate and direction of change.
Table 2 Rain-gauge (RG) stations in UP Bundelkhand
S. Location
No District RG Stations
. Latitude Longitude
1. Jhansi 25.448° N 78.568° E Jhansi, Moth, Magarwara, Barwasagar,
Garautha, Pachwara, Mauranipur,
Tahrauli
2. Lalitpur 24.691° N 78.414° E Lalitpur, Mahroni, Rajghat, Tal Behat
3. Jalaun 26.146° N 79.329° E Jalaun, Kunch, Orai, Mohana, Kalpi
4. Mahoba 25.292° N 79.872° E Mahoba, Kulpahar, Charkhari
5. Hamirpur 25.954° N 80.152° E Hamirpur, Maudaha, Khanna, Ajnar,
Rath, Bijanagar, Sarila, Kaimah,
Bharwara
6. Banda 25.476° N 80.339° E Banda, Pailani, Baberu, Badausa,
Kamasin, Chillaghat, Manikpur, Atarra,
Naraini
7. Chitrakoot 25.216o N 80.921o E Karwi, Mau
3.2 Assessment of Drought
Drought monitoring is a necessary component of managing drought risk. It is typically

described in general terms as a transitory meteorological event that happens when there has
been a protracted lack of precipitation compared to some long-term average phase. However,
droughts vary greatly from one location to the next, develop gradually, and are difficult to
identify. The success of drought preparation and mitigation depends on the early broadcast of
information about the drought's onset, development, and geographic extent. This type of
information may be obtained by monitoring the drought. Monitoring is frequently done using
drought indicators. The SPEI (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010) and SPI (McKee et al., 1993)
indicators have been used in this study. A well-known drought index, SPI is dependent on
Page 4
precipitation. The SPI's advantages are its ease of use and adaptability. It may be calculated
across a wide range of time scales and for any time period. The SPI is calculated as Equation
1 when the probability of precipitation is used:
SPI = (Pr-Prm)/σ (1)
Where Pr is the precipitation at the place, Pr m is the mean precipitation and σ is the standard
deviation. The drought will end when the SPI goes positive. The SPI computation yields the
SPEI, which is a very simple calculation. The SPI is calculated using the monthly precipitation
(or any other scale) as the input data. The SPEI makes use of the variation between Pr and PET.
This is an illustration of a fundamental climatic water balance that is used to determine the
SPEI throughout different time periods. The SPEI and SPI values for the various degrees of
drought severity are shown in Table 3 (Tan et al., 2015).
Table 3 Severity stages for SPEI and SPI
S. No. Drought severity stages SPEI & SPI ranges

1. Mild -1.0 to 0
2. Moderate -1.5 to -1.0
3. Severe -2.0 to -1.5
4. Extreme less than -2.0
4. Results
4.1 Assessment of Future Drought
Compared to the SPI, the SPEI index has been found to be more accurate in predicting
meteorological and agricultural drought. Thus, based on the SPEI index, future drought
occurrences have been evaluated. For the whole region of UP in Bundelkhand, the effects of
drought occurrences have been evaluated. Figure 2 displays the outcomes of a potential drought
across the study area. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, more annual drought occurrences
were discovered in the first century (2011-2040), but the RCP 8.5 scenario found more events
in the end century (2071-2100).
Page 5
Figure 2 Future drought events over UP Bundelkhand region
4.2 Trend Analysis of Future Drought
The MK and Sen's slope approaches have been used to assess the expected drought trend.
Seasonal, non-seasonal, and yearly scales of the trend have all been detected during the period
of 2021-2100. For both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, as well as for both the drought
indices (SPI and SPEI), a trend evaluation of the drought has been computed.
4.2.1 Trend Analysis of Drought for RCP 4.5
SPI has shown that there is no discernible pattern throughout all the months. In April, June,
July, September, and November, the majority of UP Bundelkhand exhibits a non-significant
downward trend, whereas the remaining months shown in Figure 3 exhibit a non-significant
upward trend.
Page 6
Figure 3 Monthly SPI trend in UP Bundelkhand for RCP 4.5
Figure 4 Monthly SPEI trend in UP Bundelkhand for RCP 4.5

Page 7
Similar to this, UP Bundelkhand has shown a non-significant SPEI trend for all of the months,
as seen in Figure 4.
For both SPI and SPEI, the trend analysis has also been done on seasonal (monsoon and non-
monsoon) and yearly time frames. According to the results shown in Figure 5, there is no
statistically significant trend has been found for any of the time scales (seasonal, non-seasonal,
and yearly) used in the study.
Figure 5 Seasonal and annual trend in SPI and SPEI in UP Bundelkhand for RCP 4.5
4.2.2 Trend Analysis of Drought for RCP 8.5
SPI showed no noticeable trend for any month, with the exception of July in the western part
of UP Bundelkhand. In the western region, the majority of the Lalitpur district and a small
portion of the Jhansi district showed a strong declining trend of SPI in July. Similar to this, a
non-significant SPEI trend has been seen for the entirety of UP Bundelkhand in every month
except January. In January, the whole region of Uttar Pradesh's Bundelkhand displayed a
substantial negative SPEI trend. Examination of trend has also been performed for RCP 8.5 on
seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon) and annual time scales for both SPI and SPEI. A non-
significant trend has been noticed for all the time scales except for the annual trend of SPI in
the lower part of the study region. In the western part, a significant declining annual drought
trend has been found in some parts of Jhansi. A significant annual negative trend has also been
seen in southern part of Lalitpur district, as displayed in Figure 6.
Page 8
Figure 6 Seasonal and annual trend in SPI and SPEI in UP Bundelkhand for RCP 8.5
5. Conclusions
In order to predict future drought occurrences and monitor their progression across the UP
Bundelkhand, this study made use of future data. When compared to historical observations,
the impact of climate change on drought in the future has been assessed. Based on the SPEI
index, future drought events have been evaluated. In the next three time periods (2011-2040,
2041-2070, and 2071-2100), the study revealed thirty-four annual drought episodes for the
RCP 4.5 scenario, while thirty-two drought events were discovered for the RCP 8.5 scenario
across the Bundelkhand area of UP.
There is no significant indication of the rising and diminishing trend of drought in terms of
SPEI and SPI on all time scales considered for the study at the 95% significant level, according
to the non-parametric trend analyses of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Therefore, it is necessary to
identify specific drought incidents on various time scales in order to improve future climate
projections over the Bundelkhand region in Uttar Pradesh.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune and the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for providing the necessary online data to conduct this
research work.
References
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27 thInternational Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental and
Coastal Engineering (HYDRO 2022 INTERNATIONAL) at Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh, India during
December 22 -24, 2022
Hydrodynamic Analysis of Raceway Pond using LES Turbulence model
Sweety Rajput1, Dr. B.S Das2, Dr. Anil.Kumar Sharma3

1 Ph.D. Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology,
Patna, Bihar, 800005, Email: sweetyrajput113@gmail.com
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Patna,
Bihar, 800005, Email:bsd.ce@nitp.ac.in

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Patna,
Bihar, 800005, Email:aks.ce@nitp.ac.in
Abstract
The open-closed looped raceway pond is one of the best energy-saving options proposed by
Oswald W.J and his associates in 1950 that can meet several requirements like; energy and
nutritional reclamation, wastewater treatment, and biomass cultivation for biofuel production. At
present Raceway pond (RP) is widely used for producing biofuel using microalgae as feedstock.
The wide use of this technique is because of its low maintenance and construction cost, and its
simplicity in operation. Therefore the hydrodynamic study of RP can be helpful to increase the
productivity of the pond. The hydrodynamic features like depth of flow, shear stress, and velocity
of the fluid play an important role in increasing the efficacy of the pond. The geometric property
such as aspect ratio, the pattern of the paddlewheel, deflectors use, sump, and baffles also affects
its flow pattern. In past decades Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has gained attention in
expressing a wide range of parameters even in multiphase flow with a high degree of accuracy in
raceway ponds. Various numerical simulations using ANSYS Fluent have been suggested by many
authors in existing RP hydrodynamics. Modeling RP is a cost-effective way to determine its
performance under various environmental and physical conditions. Various turbulence models like
k-ε, k-ω, LES, etc. in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are used to determine the hydrodynamic
behavior of the pond. The present study aims to use the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence
model to understand the hydrodynamic behavior of a raceway pond using ANSYS FLUENT
software. The study is performed by taking different aspect ratios (10,and 20) with a constant
velocity of flow to understand the performance of the raceway pond. The wall boundary condition
is used at the bottom, inner and outer sides of the wall. The LES turbulence model is used to
determine the effect of velocity and pressure on the performance of RP by varying the geometry
of RP. The paddlewheel is the mixing mechanism that is used for the distribution of nutrients and
sunlight in the raceway pond. Hence the modeling also understands the hydrodynamic behavior of
Raceway Pond by varying its position with constant rotation speed.
Keywords: Raceway Pond, ANSYS Fluent, Hydrodynamic, LES, CFD

December 22 -24, 2022
1. Introduction
Microalgae are widely used for biodiesel production, thus utilizing CO 2 during the photosynthesis
process and resulting in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Keffer and Kleinheinz, 2002; Li et
al., 2008). The raceway ponds utilize CO 2 and make free use of solar energy for the growth of
microalgae (Borowitzka, 1999; Oswald, 1988). The Raceway Pond (RP) consists of a paddlewheel
which is widely used for mixing nutrients. These paddlewheels also help to transport CO 2 and O2
within the cells of algae. By increasing the paddlewheel rotating speed mixing efficiency can be
increased, but it requires more electricity. Also, agitation velocity should be more than 0.1m/s to
reduce the chance of settling of algae cells in RPs (Grobbelaar, 1990; Vonshak et al., 1982;
Weissman et al., 1988). Setting large-scale experimental setup of RPs is expensive and needs more
time to construct. But advancement in numerical simulation techniques provides access for
researchers to compute various parameters based on an experiment with less time and expense.
Many paddlewheel geometries were designed for minimizing energy losses in RPs and
investigating hydrodynamic properties such as velocity field, shear stress, and dead zones
(Hadiyanto et al., 2013; Liffman et al., 2013). Similarly, Xu et al. (2014) investigated the flow
field during mixing in RPs. In the current scenario, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is
widely used to optimize various parameters of RP to increase its efficiency. Configurations like
bend, dead zone, and dimension have been simulated by CFD and the result showed very
promising agreement with the experimental data. In the majority of research on RP, energy
efficiency and flow velocity were the main parameters to be considered. The present study focus
on the simulation of various geometry of raceway pond using ANSYS Fluent workbench. The
simulation of flow at varying the position of the paddlewheel (beginning of centre wall, 25%, and
50%) using the turbulence LES model is performed to identify the optimal configuration and
turbulence model that can minimize the maximum dead zone from the channel.
2. Methodology
The simulation using ANSYS Fluent is performed using the following steps.
1. Geometry Creation
2. Mesh Generation
3. Setting up of physics
4. Post-Processing Solver
These four steps form the toolbox setup for the analysis of fluid flow using the ANSYS workbench.
2.1 Geometry Creation
The creation of geometry is the primary step in modeling using ANSYS fluent workbench. In
Ansys Design Modeler, fluid and the solid domain are generated. In three-dimensional design
coordinate x depict the direction of flow, direction Y depicts the width of the channel, and Z
direction depicts the depth of flow. The open-closed loop channel is represented by the creation of
an oval object and zone of momentum by a rectangular object in the design modeler. To inculcate
December 22 -24, 2022
boundary conditions the geometry is assigned suitable domain names. The assigned name for
created geometry is Inlet, Outlet, Wall, Bed, and free surface. The raceway pond of aspect ratios
10, and 20 are designed for simulation (Lima et al., 2020). The paddlewheel of width 0.5 m is
placed at the varying position in the raceway pond. The simulation was carried out along the varied
depth of the raceway pond. The central wall is placed at the center of the raceway pond whose
thickness (d) is 0.15m in all cases of simulation. The length of the central wall is taken as, (Lcw=L-
2W-d) where L is the length of the raceway pond, W is the width of the raceway pond and D is the
depth of the raceway pond. The radius (r) of the U-turn of the raceway pond is taken as r= (W+d/2)
(Lima et al.,2020). Table 1 represents all the geometrical parameters taken for simulation using
different aspect ratios by varying the position of the paddlewheel at beginning of the center wall,
25% and 50% length of the raceway pond.
Table 1 Geometrical parameter used for simulation

L (m) W (m) D (m) V (m/s) AR =L/B Lc (m) d (m) r (m)
20 2 0.4 0.3 10 15.85 0.15 2.075
40 2 0.4 0.3 20 35.85 0.15 2.075
2.2 Meshing
The raceway pond is divided into two domains namely the center wall and the source of momentum
generation. The mesh of two-aspect ratio geometry was created using the Meshing tool. The
hexahedral mesh is created for both geometries using a Lagrangian reference frame. The element
size of 0.05 m is provided for both geometries. The element and node contained in geometry having
aspect ratios of 10 and 20 for different locations of the paddlewheel are represented in Table 2.
The total skewness targeted was 0.9 as the default value for both aspect ratios.
Table 2 Meshing Component of different components

AR Position of Paddlewheel Element Node Skewness
10 Beginning of the Centre wall 326592 375246 0.9
10 25% 327848 376605 0.9
10 50% 327176 375858 0.9
20 Beginning of the Centre wall 588232 676674 0.9
20 25% 588232 676674 0.9
20 50% 588232 676674 0.9
2.3 Setting up Physics
The setting up of physics in ANSYS Fluent is an important and deciding tool. After generating a
mesh of high quality, choosing an appropriate turbulence model and assigning physical properties
of the flow domain with appropriate boundary conditions is required to obtain an appropriate
result. After choosing the physics module, the solver type such as pressure-based or time as
December 22 -24, 2022
transient condition is chosen, and thereafter gravitational component value is assigned. The
resolved gravity component (ρgsinϕ, 0,-ρgcosϕ) in x,y, and z directions were chosen, where ϕ is
the angle measured between the channel bed and horizontal level bed. Then after appropriate
model needs to be selected. In the multiphase option, the volume of fluid (VOF) needs to be
selected. The VOF in CFD helps to understand the free surface location and its interaction with a
wide range of pressure discretization options. The analysis of the theory of the multiphase system
can be done using Euler- Lagrange method or the Euler-Euler method. The VOF is Euler- Euler
approach so for open channel flow Euler- Euler approach is selected. This approach helps to
understand the interaction between the free surface and its interface. Then two Eulerian phases i.e.,
air and water is created. The primary phase is selected as air and the secondary phase is selected
as water. The properties of the second phase such as density, viscosity, specific heat, and thermal
conductivity are assigned for the respective flow domain.
2.4 Selection of Turbulence Model
The simulation using the three-dimensional flow of fluid was performed using the software
ANSYS Fluent. The simulation was performed considering the flow is transient, as the LES
turbulence model is applied for transient flow. The generation of flow is placed in the longest
direction of RP. The LES turbulence model is used to determine the performance of RP. The
symmetry boundary condition is chosen at the top surface, whereas at the bottom, inner and outer
walls, the wall boundary condition is adopted. Also, the no-slip condition was applied at the wall
and free surface. The time-dependent Navier-Stokes equation is filtered in either Fourier space or
physical space to obtain the governing LES equation. This filtering process significantly filters the
eddies of smaller scale than the filter width or grid spacing used in computation and therefore
governs the dynamics of large eddies. The RANS equation obtain is represented by Equations (1)
and (2).
 
+ ( ) = 0
t  xi u i
(1)
    p  ij
(  ui) + (  u iu j ) = ( ij) − − (2)
t  xj  xj  xi  x j
where u is the velocity of flow (ms-1) in x,y,z direction, ρ is the density of the fluid (kg.m-3), p is
pressure(Pa), τij is Reynolds stress tensor (m2.s-2) and σij is tress tensor due to molecular viscosity.
The stress tensor is represented by Equation (3)
 ij
=  uiu j −  uiu j (3)
The LES turbulence model used in the simulation is represented by Equation (4).
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  p   ui  u j 2  ut   ij
( p ui ) + ( p ui u j ) = − +  ( + −  ij ) − (4)
t  xj  xi   x j  xi 3  xt   x j
 
From Equation (3), τij is achieved by using a subgrid stress model. The present study uses the
standard Samagorinsky–Lily model to get the solution.
2.5 Boundary Condition
Once the turbulence model is selected. The boundary condition for the assigned domain is
incorporated. For the flow domain following boundary condition is adopted as mentioned follows:
• Pressure Inlet
• Pressure Outlet
• Symmetry Conditions
• Wall conditions.
In the present study consisting of two Eulerian phases, the open channel flow is chosen as VOF
Model. Also, it is modeled as the implicit volume of the model. At the inlet flow domain, the
boundary condition with absolute reference of the frame the velocity of flow assigned v= 0.3 m/s
for various aspect ratios at different positions of the paddlewheel. For all cases, the direction
specification method used is normal to the boundary condition. At the outlet, the pressure outlet
boundary condition is adopted. The static pressure which is the same as atmospheric pressure is
determined at the outlet.
2.6 Wall Boundary Condition
In the boundary condition near the wall of the channel, a no-slip condition is provided where the
tangential component of velocity is mentioned as zero. At the free surface mentioned on the top
surface of geometry, the pressure maintained is equal to atmospheric pressure. At the center wall
also the no-slip condition is set near the wall. In the last step to run the calculation, the no of time
steps set was 1000. This is required to converge the solution. The coupling of pressure-velocity in
the transport equation and other equations also used are discretized by second-order upwind
precision and the algorithm used is PISO for validation. After completion of the simulation, the
post-process menu analyzes the result obtained.
The raceway pond of varying lengths (L) of 20 m and 40 m and depth of flow (D) of 0.4 m were
simulated by taking width (B) of 2 m and velocity of flow as 0.3m/s. A total of 54 cases were
studied. In an open channel with two aspect ratios 10 and 20, the effect of varying the position of
the paddlewheel was studied. Figure 1-Figure 3 shows the velocity contour at different depths for
different positions of the paddlewheel i.e., at 5%, 25%, and 50% of the length of the raceway pond
using the LES turbulence model. The medium depth considers for the study is 0.05 m, 0.2 m, and
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0.35 m (Amini et al., 2016; Ali et al., 2015). The formation of dead zone is usually observed at
bends and near ends of central walls. It means this region is an area of no flow or no mixing. The
effect of the formation of such a stagnation zone leads to the accumulation of some amount of
nutrients with reaction mixture which is carried by mainstream inside the dead zone, and this is
released only later after average storage time (Sawant et al., 2019). Therefore uneven velocity
distribution may lead to such formation. The formation of dead zone is mostly observed at the
bend and near the central wall, this may also be due to the formation of vortex flow with high
velocity at the smallest distance near the edge of the central wall and low velocity at a longer radius
of curvature near the curved bend (Hickin, 2003). Also around the curved portion, the level of
liquid may vary from higher hydrostatic pressure near the curved portion to lower hydrostatic
pressure near the edge of the center wall. As per Bernoulli’s principle, the outer wall having higher
pressure is followed by lower flow velocity, whereas the low pressure near the inner curve is
followed by large flow velocity, and this explains the phenomenon of dead zone (Sompech et al.,
2012)
3.1. Effect of Velocity at different Positions of paddlewheel
The raceway pond of aspect ratio 10 is designed to determine the effect of the varying magnitude
of velocity. The paddlewheel is placed at beginning of the raceway pond. For the inlet boundary
condition, the inlet velocity is given as 0.3 m/s. At a medium depth of 0.05 m, as shown in Figure
1A (a), a slight increase in velocity 0.502 m/s -0.565 m/s is observed at the side wall which
decreases as flow progress towards the edge of the center wall. At depth of 0.2 m, the inlet velocity
increases from 0.126 m/s to 0.502 m/s, and a very slight increase in velocity near the wall is
observed as shown in Figure 1A (b). At the bottom depth, the maximum increase in velocity near
the side wall is observed as shown in Figure 1A (c). This sudden increase in the velocity of flow
is observed as the depth increases from top to bottom. This increase in velocity is not favorable for
the growth of microalgae. In all cases, the formation of the dead zone is near the side wall and
center wall. The formation of the dead zone is less at mid-depth i.e., at 0.2 m depth of medium
from the bed. It is reported that when the depth of the medium is increasing, the head loss per unit
volume of the medium is decreasing (Andersen, 2005). The depth of the medium has a less
significant effect on the distribution of velocity at the same channel from the free surface. Similarly
for aspect ratio 20, for an inlet velocity of 0.3 m/s when the paddlewheel is placed at beginning of
the center wall, the volume of the dead zone reduces to a considerable amount as shown in Figure
1B (a) - (c). A very less amount of dead zone can be observed at bends and near the center wall.
Also, a slight increase of the magnitude of velocity 1.392 m/s is observed near the wall which
keeps on decreasing as fluid flows towards the center of the raceway pond. The increase of velocity
near the wall is considerably less at the top surface as shown in Figure 1B (a). The observation
shows the increasing trend of velocity near the wall as depth increases to 0.2m then again decreases
at the bottom surface. The maximum magnitude of the velocity of flow i.e.,0.139 m/s at the inlet
is observed at the mid-depth of the pond as shown in Figure 1B (b). The region where the cell
tends to settle down is characterized by where velocity is less than 0.1 m/s as reported in the
literature (Sompech et al.,2013; Huang et al.,2015). It is observed from Figure 1, the formation of
a dead zone mostly occurs after a bend where there may be chances of occurrence of head loss
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(Huang et al.,2015). The literature reported that an average velocity of 0.05 m/s is sufficient to
keep the algal cell in suspension in a medium (Anderson, 2005). However, maintaining such low
velocity at a bend is challenging because of frictional losses at the channel and corner. In all cases,
the dead zone is observed near the bends where the velocity is less than 0.1 m/s, this may be due
to the effect of the wall near the bend also.
The paddle wheel at the location of 25% distance along the length of the raceway pond is placed
for aspect ratio 10 and 20 respectively as shown in Figure 2A-2B. The dead zone is observed near
the bend and near the center wall. In Figure 2A (a) slight increase in velocity near the wall from
the anticlockwise direction of flow is observed which decreases as flow progress towards the
center of RP. The velocity decreases from the sidewall to the edge of the center wall as shown in
Figure 2A (a)- (c). The less formation of the dead zone is observed in Figure 2A (b). At the top
surface as shown in Figure 2A (a) the sudden increase in velocity is less as compared to the bottom
and mid surface. The maximum uneven distribution of velocity can be observed at the bottom
surface i.e at depth of 0.3 m as shown in Figure 2A (c). For aspect ratio 20 as shown in Figure 2B
(a)-(c) less formation of the dead zone can be observed. It can also be stated that the velocity of
flow increases as the aspect ratio increases. The maximum magnitude of velocity at the inlet is
0.488 m/s in all depths of aspect ratio 20. As shown in Figure 2B (a) the increase of velocity of
flow near the wall is more at the top surface which reduces at mid surface i.e., at depth of 0.2 m as
shown in Figure 2B (b), then again slight increase is observed at a bottom depth of 0.35m as shown
in Figure 2B (c). Among all cases Figure, 2B (b) shows very less unevenness in velocity
distribution which keeps on decreasing as depth decreases. Along the free surface, the distribution
of the magnitude of velocity was analyzed for aspect ratios 10 and 20 as shown in Figure 3A - 3B
(a) –(c). The paddlewheel is placed at a distance of 10 m and 20 m respectively for aspect ratios
10 and 20 along the length of the raceway pond. The inlet boundary condition of 0.3 m/s is adopted
to understand the effect of flow in the raceway pond for both cases. The distribution of velocity
significantly affects the performance of the raceway pond. It affects the distribution and
assimilation of nutrients, light and dark cycle (L/D), and therefore affects the yield of microalgae.
In all cases of Figure 3, the zones of low flow generally termed dead zone (velocity less than 0.1
m/s) is observed along the central wall and near the bends. For the narrow width of the raceway
pond (B=2m), the formation of a dead zone adjacent to the central wall is more. This indicates that
there is no development of flow along the straight channel. The flow development is progressive
and distribution is evenly distributed along the cross-stream direction in the straight section. Such
development of flow is more noticeable in a lower aspect ratio. The formation of the dead zone is
observed at bends and near the central wall in all cases. In Figure 3A (a) at depth of 0.05 m, the
velocity at the inlet is observed as 0.168 m/s. The slight increase in the magnitude of velocity 0.412
m/s at the inlet was observed at 0.35 m depth of the medium i.e., at the bottom depth from the bed
as shown in Figure 3A (c). Among all cases Figure, 3 A (b) shows less formation of the dead zone.
Also, a sudden increase in velocity of flow near the wall is observed at the top surface i.e at depth
December 22 -24, 2022
of 0.05 m as shown in Figure 3A (a) which keeps on decreasing as depth increases as shown in
Figure 3A (b) - (c). Similarly, for aspect ratio 20 placing the paddlewheel at 50% distance along
the length of RP the maximum magnitude of inlet velocity obtained is 0.182 m/s for all cases as
shown in Figure 3B (a) - (c). As shown in Figure 3B (a), at depth of 0.05m the velocity increases
from the edge of the center wall to the wall near the outlet and then decrease as the flow progress
toward the outlet. This observation decreases at depth of 0.2 m as shown in Figure 3B (b) and then
eventually decreases at the bottom depth i.e at depth of 0.35 m as shown in Figure 3B (c). Hence
from all observations, it can be stated that the increase in aspect ratio has a better distribution of
the velocity of flow as compared to a smaller aspect ratio.
Figure 1Longitudinal Velocity contour at a different depth from the bed used for the beginning
position of paddlewheel from the center wall for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for
inlet velocity v = 0.3 m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
Figure 2Longitudinal Velocity contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for
25% distance of paddlewheel for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet velocity v =
0.3 m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
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Figure 3Longitudinal Velocity contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for
50% distance of paddlewheel for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet velocity v =
0.3 m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
3.2. Effect of Eddy viscosity on different positions of paddlewheel
The paddlewheel is the only effective mechanism in the raceway pond to increase the mixing of
nutrients and increase its productivity. Therefore, to avoid damage to microalgae cells,
paddlewheel must generate micro eddies with a length larger than the size of the cell (Thomas et
al.,1990; Berdalet et al.,2007; Hondzo et al.,1999). Also, it is reported in the literature that
increasing the mixing speed may increase the hydrodynamic stresses that may damage the algal
cell (Berdalet et al.,2007; Hondzo et al.,1999; Al-Homoud et al,2007). The formation of eddy
reported in Figure 4,5,6 indicates the zone of damage to algal cells. This eddy formation takes
place because of the high velocity of flow in a particular region.
In Figure 4A (a)-(c) the eddy formation is represented with varying medium depth for aspect ratio
10 at placing paddlewheel at beginning of the central wall. It is observed that eddy formation is
less at depth of 0.2 m as shown in Figure4 A (b) and increases eventually at depth of 0.35 m as
shown in Figure 4A (c). This formation is generally observed near the adjacent edge of the center
wall and in between portions of RP in all cases of aspect ratio 10. The maximum magnitude of
0.122 Pa.s eddy formation can be observed at the top surface of RP which eventually decreases
with the depth to 0.2 m and then eventually increase at depth of 0.35 m as shown in Figure 4A (c).
Similarly, Figure 4B (a)-(c) represent the considerably less formation of eddies for aspect ratio 20
as compared to aspect ratio 10. In Figure 4B (b) the formation of the eddy is more at the top surface
of the raceway pond and considerably less formation is observed at the mid surface as shown in
Figure 4B (b) which eventually rises at the bottom surface as shown in Figure 4B (c). Also, it can
be stated that for a larger aspect ratio the formation of eddy viscosity is less as compared to a
smaller aspect ratio. Also, the formation of eddies is more at the top surface and bottom surface
with a smaller aspect ratio. The paddlewheel positioned at a 25% distance along the length of the
raceway pond is analyzed to determine the impact of eddy viscosity on the raceway pond as shown
in Figure 5A -5B (a) - (c) for different aspect ratios. The maximum magnitude of 0.142 Pa.s is
observed in Figure 5A (a) for aspect ratio 10 at the top surface of the pond. At mid-depth, as shown
in Figure 5A (b) the formation is less. Similarly for all cases (aspect ratio 20) of Figure 5B (a)- (c)
December 22 -24, 2022
the formation of eddy viscosity is more as compared to aspect ratio 10. In Figure 5B (b) at a mid-
depth of the medium, there are fewer chances of damage to the algal cell.
The paddlewheel when placed at a 50% distance along the length of the raceway pond for different
aspect ratios shows a significant change as shown in Figure 6A - 6B (a)-(c). The maximum
formation of eddies takes place at the top surface while changing the position of the paddlewheel
which keeps on increasing as the depth increases as shown in Figure 6A (a)-(c). For the same
position of paddlewheel for aspect ratio 20, the formation of eddies is considerably less which
indicates less damage to cells of algae. This formation of eddies is more near the edge of the center
wall at the top surface as shown in Figure 6B (b) which decreases at the mid-depth of the pond as
shown in figure 6B (b). Hence it can be stated that an increase in aspect ratio and placing the
paddlewheel at a 25% distance along the length of the raceway pond may increase the productivity
of the pond.
Figure 4Eddy Viscosity contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for the
beginning position of paddlewheel from the center wall for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio
20 for inlet velocity v = 0.3 m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
Figure 5Eddy Viscosity contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for 25%
distance of paddlewheel for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet velocity v = 0.3
m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 6Eddy Viscosity contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for 50%
distance of paddlewheel for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet velocity v = 0.3
m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
Figure 7Pressure contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for the beginning
position of paddlewheel from the center wall (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet
velocity v = 0.3 m/s. (a) 0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
Figure 8 Pressure contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for 25% distance
of paddlewheel for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet velocity v = 0.3 m/s. (a)
0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 9 Pressure contour at a different depth from the bed using the LES model for 50% distance
of paddlewheel for (A) aspect ratio 10 and (B) aspect ratio 20 for inlet velocity v = 0.3 m/s. (a)
0.05m (b) 0.2m (c) 0.35m
3.3. Effect of Pressure on different Positions of paddlewheel
A significant change in the distribution of pressure can be observed in the raceway pond while
changing the position of the paddlewheel. The paddlewheel is positioned at beginning of the center
wall for aspect ratios 10 and 20 as shown in Figure 7A-7B (a)-(c). For aspect ratio 10 it is observed
that at the top surface as shown in Figure 7A (a) the negative pressure is experienced near the edge
of the center wall and pressure significantly increases as it moves towards the bend. The negative
pressure is experienced near the adjacent edge of the center wall and an increase of pressure is
observed at a bend in all cases as shown in Figure 7A (b)-(c). It is also observed that there is no
significant effect on pressure distribution by increasing the depth of the medium. Similarly for
aspect ratio 20 the pressure distribution is more even as compared to a smaller aspect ratio. The
negative pressure experienced is very small near the center of the raceway pond up to a certain
distance between the center wall and the side wall. The pressure then increases near the left side
bend of RP as shown in Figure 7B (a)-(c). In a larger aspect ratio also there is no effect of varying
depth of medium on pressure distribution. The location of the paddlewheel is changed at 25%
distance along the length of the raceway pond for aspect ratios 10 and 20 as shown in Figure 8A-
8B. The negative pressure is observed at the mid portion of the raceway pond which extends up to
a certain portion towards the bend and then starts increasing as flow progress towards the outlet.
The maximum pressure is observed at the outlet as shown in Figure 8A (a)-(c). Similarly for aspect
ratio 20 the mid-section of the raceway pond along with the bend experience negative pressure as
shown in Figure 8B (a)-(c). The varying depth of the medium does not affect pressure distribution.
Changing the position of the paddlewheel at 50% distance along the length of the raceway pond
for aspect ratios 10 and 20 does not show any significant effect on varying the medium depth. The
negative pressure for aspect ratio 10 is observed near the inlet which increases towards the bend.
The adjacent side of the center wall also experienced negative pressure as shown in Figure 9A (a)-
(c). Similarly for aspect ratio 20 the negative pressure is experienced at inlet and pressure increase
as flow progress towards the outlet of RP as shown in Figure 9B (a)-(c).
December 22 -24, 2022
4. Conclusion
In the present study, the LES turbulence model has been applied to analyze the velocity, eddy
viscosity, and pressure distribution in the raceway pond by varying the position of the paddlewheel
and aspect ratio. The following conclusion has been drawn from the present study.
• The longitudinal velocity in the raceway pond is found to be increasing with an increase in
depth of flow. The uneven distribution of velocity is observed in RP of a smaller aspect
ratio when the paddlewheel is placed at a 50% distance along the length of the raceway
pond.
• The formation of the dead zone is decreasing as the aspect ratio is increasing and maximum
decrease is observed when the paddlewheel is placed at 50% along the length of RP.
• The formation of eddy viscosity decreases by increasing the aspect ratio. The maximum
decrease of formation of eddy viscosity is observed at depth of 0.2 m when the paddlewheel
is placed at a 50% distance along the length of RP.
• There is no significant effect of pressure distribution on the varying depth of the medium.
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One-dimensional unsteady suspended sediment transport

problem with effect of stratification and hindered settling
Shiv Mohan1 , Koeli Ghoshal2 , and Jitendra Kumar3
1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,
Kharagpur, India-721302. Email: shivmohan58@gmail.com
2
Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,
Kharagpur, India-721302. Email: koeli@maths.iitkgp.ac.in
3
Professor, Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur,
India-721302. Email: jkumar@maths.iitkgp.ac.in
Abstract
The objective of the present work is to study the one-dimensional unsteady suspended sediment
transport in an open channel flow carrying large amount of sediments. The density of the fluid-sediment
mixture is changed due to the presence of particles in the flow, a phenomenon known as ‘density
stratification’, which obstructs the settling of sediment particles. Also that, the settling velocity of a
particle is reduced in a particle mixed fluid from that in clear fluid, which is known as ‘hindered settling’.
Both of these effects have been included in the mathematical modeling and the non-linear governing
partial differential equation (PDE) has been solved numerically. The bottom boundary condition
to solve the PDE has been taken to be the most generalized one out of all existing conditions in the
literature. The model has been validated with existing models under some consideration of parameters.
It is observed that the change between stratified and non-stratified concentration profiles increases with
increase in time and sediment concentration decreases due to the inclusion of stratification effect. Also
that, the hindered settling effect is clearly prominent for each type of sediment diffusion coefficient in
case of uniform sediment concentration at inlet.
Keywords: Open channel flow, Turbulent flow, Suspended sediment concentration, Stratification effect,
Hindered settling effect, Non-linear PDE, Numerical Solution
1 Introduction
Turbulent flows over erodible sediment bed is an important topic of research since long as it helps in
understanding sediment transport rate, sediment pick up process, friction factor and many others which
are directly related to engineering problems. Suspended sediment in the flow influence the structure of
the flow as interaction between fluid and sediment occurs, quantification of which is essential.
Most of the past attempts to understand the distribution of sediment over a water column in an open
channel turbulent flow, were made by diffusion approach (Rouse, 1937; Hunt, 1954; Umeyama, 1992;
Graf and Cellino, 2002; Ghoshal and Kundu, 2013; Chiu et al., 2000). Different models included different
turbulent features; though ultimately in all the cases the differential equation solved was an ordinary one.
1
But when sediment concentration is considered to vary with time or to vary in the main flow direction
apart from the normally considered vertical variation, the governing differential equation becomes partial
in nature which is obviously not as easy to tackle as an ordinary one. May be due to this reason, number
of studies that considered unsteady concentration or spacial variation of concentration is very few in
comparison to study on steady vertical variation of concentration. Hjelmfelt and Lenau (1970) attempted
to solve two-dimensional steady concentration problem with a simple boundary condition by traditional
method of separation of variables. Kobayashi and Seo (1985) developed mathematical model for fluid
and sediment interaction based on conservation of mass and momentum for fluid and sediment. Though
their starting governing equations were unsteady and partial differential equations, but ultimately they
reduced the number of independent variables and ended up in solving ordinary differential equation. Rijn
(1987) started from generalized advection-diffusion equation and solved for steady state with a simple bed
boundary condition. Mendoza (1991) presented solution for two-dimensional steady problem using Shvel’s
method. Liu and Nayamatullah (2014) and Liu (2016) solved the one-dimensional unsteady and two-
dimensional steady problem respectively by Generalized Integral Transform Technique. In both the cases,
they solved simple advection-diffusion equation which is linear partial differential equation (PDE) without
considering important turbulent features. Jing et al. (2018) solved steady two-dimensional advection-
diffusion equation which became non-linear by including one important phenomenon of sediment-laden
flow which is hindered settling and provided numerical solution of the problem. Recently, Mohan et al.
(2020) extended the work of Liu and Nayamatullah (2014) by incorporating hindered settling effect in
one-dimensional unsteady problem and solved the non-linear PDE semi-analytically by Method of Lines-
Homotopy Analysis Method.
All the above mentioned works on PDE except Jing et al. (2018) and Mohan et al. (2020), solved sim-
ply a linear PDE and neglected, sometimes by mentioning, several important turbulent phenomenon. For
example, Liu and Nayamatullah (2014) themselves mentioned that they considered only simple advection-
diffusion equation without considering stratification or any other effect. Long back, Sheng and Villaret
(1989) mentioned that presence of sediments result in a vertical sediment gradient and hence there is
a modification of the flow especially in the bottom boundary layer. Villaret and Trowbridge (1991)
presented a comparative study of theoretical results and laboratory channel flow measurements to test
the applicability of the stratified flow analogy. Smith (1975) and Smith and McLean (1977a,b) made a
qualitative formulation of stratification effect through flux Richardson number. Several works (Ghoshal
and Mazumder, 2005; Kundu and Ghoshal, 2014; Mohan et al., 2019; McLean, 1991; Villaret and Trow-
bridge, 1991) on concentration distribution have been done considering the stratification effect; but all the
works were simply one-dimensional steady problem and as such the governing equation was an ordinary
differential equation. None of the mentioned works in the previous paragraph who worked on PDEs,
considered this important effect.
Apart from stratification effect, another important turbulent phenomenon is hindered settling (already
mentioned once before). Presence of sediment particles influence the settling velocity of a particle in a
particle-laden flow which was named as ‘hindered settling’ by Maude and Whitmore (1958). Richardson
and Zaki (1954) quantified this effect through an expression ω0 (1 − c)nH where ω0 is the particle fall
velocity in clear water, c is the volumetric sediment concentration and nH is the exponent of reduction of
fall velocity. Many researches (Woo et al., 1988; Winterwerp et al., 1990; Ghoshal and Mazumder, 2005;
Mazumder and Ghoshal, 2006; Pal and Ghoshal, 2016, 2017; Mohan et al., 2019) have been carried out
on sediment-laden flow including this effect; but these are all on solving ordinary differential equations.
Out of all the researches who aimed to solved a partial differential equation, only Jing et al. (2018) and
Mohan et al. (2020) considered this effect in their model. Recently, Kundu (2020) studied the unsteady
2
non-equilibrium distribution of suspended sediment in open channel flow by taking effect of stratification,
but did not take the effect of hindered settling may be in order to provide analytical solution of the
problem. In his study, he considered Rouse equation (Rouse, 1937) to get the expression for stratified
sediment diffusion coefficient. However, the stratification effect is prominent when concentration is high
and for that, Hunt equation should be used in place of Rouse equation to derive a more generalized
expression for stratified sediment diffusion coefficient as Rouse equation is valid for low concentration
only.
After consideration of the governing equation, comes the question of fixing the boundary conditions.
The work of Hjelmfelt and Lenau (1970) mentioned previously, considered a simple bed boundary condi-
tion without any deposition or entrainment flux. Previously, Dobbins (1944) considered both entrainment
and deposition, but both were constant. Cheng (1984) generalized the bottom boundary condition by
including both entrainment and deposition and showed that all previously used bottom boundary con-
ditions are special cases of their boundary conditions. Out of the previously mentioned works on PDE,
Liu and Nayamatullah (2014), Liu (2016), Mohan et al. (2020) and Kundu (2020) used Cheng’s bottom
boundary condition.
It is clear from the above literature survey that while studying unsteady vertical distribution of parti-
cles in an open channel flow, either researchers did not consider stratification or hindered settling or did
not take generalized boundary condition. The main objective of this study is to solve one-dimensional
unsteady advection-diffusion equation including two important turbulent features that are stratification
and hindered settling and by using the most generalized boundary conditions, by numerical techniques.
Analytical and numerical solution are two different aspects to solve a mathematical problem and both
are equally important. In order to give an analytical solution, it is not wise to ignore important turbulent
characteristics and to make the governing equation simple. Consideration of important turbulent phe-
nomenon often makes the governing equation highly non-linear where to provide any analytical solution
is almost impossible and numerical methods are the best to solve the problem. To solve the non-linear
PDE arising from the standard advection-diffusion equation, two boundary conditions are required. The
bottom one is already discussed and the top boundary condition comes from considering zero sediment
flux at the free surface which has been used by most of the previous researchers; the initial condition is
an arbitrary concentration at any vertical height. The results have been compared with similar existing
works for the purpose of validation. Physical justification for different features in the model have been
provided.
2 Mathematical Modeling
2.1 Governing Equation
The motion of suspended sediment is governed by the advection diffusion equation. The most generalized
form of the three-dimensional advection diffusion equation is given as follows (Julien, 2010):
∂c ∂(uc) ∂(vc) ∂(wc) ∂ h i ∂c ∂ h i ∂c ∂ h i ∂c

+ + + = m + sx + m + sy + m + sz (2.1)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂z ∂x ∂x ∂y ∂y ∂z ∂z
where c is the volumetric sediment concentration, t denotes times and x, y and z are the stream-wise,
transverse and vertical directions, respectively; u, v and w are the time-averaged velocity components of
fluids in the x, y and z directions, respectively; sx , sy and sz are the sediment diffusion coefficients in the
3
stream-wise, transverse and vertical directions, respectively and m is the molecular diffusion coefficient.
It is observed that in the turbulent flow, molecular diffusion coefficient (m ) is negligible in comparison to
turbulent diffusion coefficients i.e. m ≈ 0. Replacing the vertical velocity component (w) by the settling
velocity (ωs ) of the sediment particles and denoting sz by s in Eq. (2.1), the governing equation for
one-dimensional uniform, unsteady flow in a wide open channel for the distribution of suspended sediment
concentration becomes
∂c ∂ ∂ ∂c
− ωs c = s (2.2)
∂t ∂z ∂z ∂z
where negative sign is due to downward motion of sediment particles. Experiments showed that the
magnitude of settling velocity of sediment particles is less than that of in clear fluid in high concentrated
flows (hindered settling). It happens due to the presence of suspended sediment particles in surroundings.
Richardson and Zaki (1954) provided a relationship between the settling velocity of sediment particles
and the concentration which is given as follows:
ωs = ω0 (1 − c)nH (2.3)
where ω0 is the settling velocity of sediment particles in clear fluid and nH is the exponent of reduction
of settling velocity whose value depends on particle Reynolds number and varies from 2.3 to 4.9. Using
Eq. (2.3) in Eq. (2.2), governing equation becomes
∂c ∂ h i ∂ ∂c
− ω0 c(1 − c)nH = s (2.4)
∂t ∂z ∂z ∂z
Eq. (2.4) represents the one-dimensional unsteady distribution of suspended sediment concentration in
open channel flow by incorporating the effect of hindered settling.
2.2 Stratified sediment diffusion coefficient
Apart from parameter ωs , there is one more parameter s i.e. sediment diffusion coefficient, in Eq. (2.2).
As the suspended-sediment concentration decreases along a vertical direction, the region near to bed
has high concentration in comparison to rest of the region. This stable stratification slows down the
process of turbulent mixing of the fluid momentum and the sediment mass along a vertical, due to which
the distribution of concentration decreases along a vertical. Smith and McLean (1977b) provided an
expression for sediment diffusion coefficients by incorporating the stratification effect in the following
form:
s = s0 (1 − βRf ) = γt0 (1 − βRf ) (2.5)
where γ is the ratio between sediment diffusion coefficient (s ) and turbulent diffusion coefficient (t )
i.e. γ = st , known as inverse Schmidt number, β is the stratification correction parameter and s0 , t0
are neutral sediment and turbulent diffusion coefficients, respectively; Rf is known as flux Richardson
number and can be expressed as follows (Monin and Yaglom, 1971):
dc
g(d − 1)s dz
Rf = − (2.6)
t ( du
dz )
2
where d is the ratio of sediment density ρs to fluid density ρ i.e. d = ρρs and g is the gravitational
acceleration. Using Boussinesq approximation, turbulent shear stress (τ ) in a steady turbulent flow can
be expressed as
du z
τ = ρt = ρu∗ 2 1 − (2.7)
dz h
4
where u∗ is the shear velocity and h is the flow depth. Hunt (1954) proposed a governing equation
for suspended sediment concentration by considering solid phase and fluid phase separately in a steady
uniform sediment-laden turbulent flow in an open channel which can be written as
dc dc
s + (t − s )c + ωs c(1 − c) = 0 (2.8)
dz dz
Using Eq. (2.3), Eq. (2.5), Eq. (2.7) and Eq. (2.8), the expression for Flux Richardson number given
by Eq. (2.6) becomes
gγ(d − 1)ω0 t0 c(1 − c)nH +1

Rf = " # (2.9)
2
βgγ(d−1)ω0 t0 c(1−c)nH +1

4 z
[γ + (1 − γ)c]u∗ 1 − h 1+ 2
z
[γ+(1−γ)c]u∗ 4 1− h
or
1
1 − βRf = (2.10)
1+ 2
z
[γ+(1−γ)c]u∗ 4 1− h
Therefore, the expression for sediment diffusion coefficient given by Eq. (2.5) is converted to
γt0
s = (2.11)
1+ 2
z
[γ+(1−γ)c]u∗ 4 1− h
Eq. (2.11) represents the most generalized expression for sediment diffusion coefficient after considering
concentration dependent settling velocity and incorporating the effect of stratification.
The following non-dimensional variables are introduced to make the governing equation non-dimensional:
c c∗ z tu∗
C= , C∗ = , Z= , T =
ca ca h h
a λ ω0 s t0
A= , B= , V0 = , s + = , K(Z) =
h u∗ u∗ u∗ h u∗ h
where ca is the reference concentration at reference level z = a. Therefore, the governing equation reduces
to the following equation
!
∂C ∂ h i ∂ ∂C
− V0 C(1 − ca C)nH = s + (2.12)
∂T ∂Z ∂Z ∂Z
Using Eq. (2.11), the expression for non-dimensional stratified sediment diffusion coefficient can be
rewritten as
γK(Z)
s + = (2.13)
βγαca K(Z)C(1−ca C)nH +1 2
1+ [γ+(1−γ)ca C] (1 − Z)
g(d−1)V0 h
where α = u∗ 2
is a constant.
5
2.3 Boundary Conditions
To obtain the solution of the PDE Eq. (2.12), two boundary conditions and one initial condition are
needed. As already mentioned in ‘Introduction’, different types of bottom boundary conditions are
available in the literature (Mei, 1969; Hjelmfelt and Lenau, 1970; Apmann and Rumer, 1970; Lee et al.,
1981). Out of these, the bottom boundary conditions provided by Cheng (1984) is the most generalized
one which is considered in the present study. The boundary conditions at the free surface z = h and at
the reference lavel z = a are taken as
∂c
s + ωs c = 0 at z = h (2.14)
∂z
and
∂c
s + ωs c = λ(c − c∗ ) at z = a (2.15)
∂z
where λ and c∗ are depth independent parameters whose values depend on bottom boundary.
Initial condition for concentration distribution is considered as
c(t = 0, z) = c0 (z) (2.16)
Replacing ωs by ω0 and s by s0 in the boundary conditions Eqs. (2.14-2.15) and making them
non-dimensional as per the above specified non-dimensional variables, one has
∂C
γK(Z) + V0 C = 0 at Z = 1 (2.17)
∂Z
∂C
γK(Z) + (V0 − B)C = −BC∗ at Z = A (2.18)
∂Z
and
C(T = 0, Z) = C0 (Z) (2.19)
It can be seen from Eq. (2.12) that the governing equation is a highly non-linear PDE together with the
generalized boundary conditions given by Eqs. (2.17-2.19).
3 Numerical Methodology
Since solving a non-linear PDE analytically is not so easy task, a numerical solution of the problem
together with the non-homogeneous boundary conditions is provided in this section. It can be seen from
Eq. (2.12) that the governing equation to be solved is a parabolic type of non-linear PDE in which two
types of derivatives are involved: (1) space derivative terms with respect to Z and (2) time derivative
terms with respect to time T . To solve it numerically, the computational domain L = 1 − A with
respect to space term is divided into N number of equally spaced interior grid points Zi with the grid
size ∆Z = NL+1 and the derivatives with respect to the space term Z are discretized using the following
second order numerical schemes:

∂C Ci+1 − Ci−1
(δC)i = = (3.1)
∂Z i 2∆Z
∂2C

2 Ci+1 − 2Ci + Ci−1
(δ C)i = = (3.2)
∂Z 2 i ∆Z 2
6
where Ci = Ci (T ) = C(Z = Zi , T ). Using these numerical schemes, Eq. (2.12) is converted to

h i
∂Ci nH
= V0 δ C(1 − ca C) + (s + )i (δ 2 C)i + (δs + )i (δC)i (3.3)
∂T i
where i (= 1, 2, ..., N ) denotes ith grid in Z direction. Clearly, Z = A and Z = 1 corresponds to
i = 0 andi =N + 1 node points, respectively. Using the second order forward difference scheme
∂C −3C0 +4C1 −C2
(δC)i=0 = ∂Z = 2∆Z for bottom boundary condition at Z = A and second order backward
i=0
∂C 3C −4C +C
difference scheme (δC)i=N +1 = ∂Z = N +1 2∆ZN N −1 for the boundary condition at Z = 1,
i=N +1
the values of CN +1 and C0 from Eqs. (2.17) and (2.18) respectively, can be obtained as follows:
K(1)
CN +1 = (4CN − CN − ) (3.4)
3K(1) + 2∆ZV0
1 K(A)
C0 = −3K(A)
− BC∗ + (C2 − 4C1 ) (3.5)
+ (V0 − B) 2∆Z
2∆Z
Now, one can write Eq. (3.3) in the form of
∂Ci
= G(T, Ci−1 , Ci , Ci+1 ) for i = 1, 2, ..., N (3.6)
∂T
where h i
nH
G(T, Ci−1 , Ci , Ci+1 ) = V0 δ C(1 − ca C) + (s + )i (δ 2 C)i + (δs + )i (δC)i (3.7)
i
It is clear from Eq. (3.6) that the governing PDE is converted into a system of ordinary differential
equations. This system of ODEs Eq. (3.6) is solved using fourth order Runge-Kutta method using the
initial condition (2.19).
4 Results and Discussion

In this section, obtained numerical solution of the present problem Eq. (2.12) is validated with the
existing models of Cheng (1984) and Liu and Nayamatullah (2014). Later the results of important physical
phenomenon stratification and hindered settling effect is discussed graphically as well as theoretically.
From Eq. (2.12), it is clear that to access the solution for concentration distribution, known expression
for turbulent diffusion coefficient K(Z) is needed. In literature (Rijn, 1987), three types of profiles namely,
constant, linear and parabolic are available for K(Z) which are as follows:
(1) Constant
κ
K(Z) = (4.1)
α1
(2) Linear
κ
K(Z) = Z (4.2)
α2
and
(3) Parabolic
K(Z) = κZ(1 − Z) (4.3)
where κ is a von-Karman constant; α1 = 6 and α2 = 3 are the model parameters whose details can be
found in Rijn (1987). Apart from these parameters, Eq. (2.12) has two more parameters β and γ. To
avoid computational difficulty, β = 4 and γ = 1 are used throughout the study to get the solution.
7
1 1
Present work Present work
0.9 Cheng (1984) 0.9 Cheng (1984)
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
(a) (b)
1 5.5
Present work
0.9 Cheng (1984) 5
0.8 4.5 Present work

Cheng (1984)
4
0.7
3.5
0.6
3
0.5
2.5
0.4
2
0.3
1.5
0.2 1
0.1 0.5
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
(c) (d)
Figure 1: Validation with analytical solution of Cheng (1984)
4.1 Validation with analytical solution of Cheng (1984)
Cheng (1984) analytically solved one-dimensional unsteady problem, taking constant turbulent diffusion
coefficient and ignoring the stratification and hindered settling effect together with simplified boundary
conditions. It can be seen from Eq. (2.12) that removing the stratification and hindered settling effect
(i.e. β = 0 and nH = 0) and taking V0 = 1 and K(Z) = K, present problem is converted to his problem.
So, we plotted our numerical solution with the Cheng solution and it can be observed from Fig. 1 that
solution agrees well with the Cheng (1984) solution. Figs. 1(a)-1(c) show the variation of suspended
sediment concentration with the vertical height at different time for different set of parameters and Fig
1(d) shows the variation of bottom concentration with time for different values of C∗ .
4.2 Validation with analytical solution of Liu and Nayamatullah (2014)
Liu and Nayamatullah (2014) solved one-dimensional unsteady non-equilibrium suspended sediment
transport problem with arbitrary turbulent diffusion coefficient and generalized boundary conditions
semi-analytically. Taking β = 0 and nH = 0 i.e. removing both the stratification and hindered settling
effect, the present problem becomes same as Liu and Nayamatullah (2014) and variation of suspended
8
1
constant
0.9 linear
parabolic
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.5 1 1.5
Figure 2: Validation with analytical solution of Liu and Nayamatullah (2014)
sediment concentration at a particular time T = 2 with respect to vertical height for different turbu-
lent diffusion coefficients is plotted in Fig. 2. The required parameters are listed within the figure.
Fig. 2 clearly shows that our solution matches quite well with the semi-analytical solution of Liu and
Nayamatullah (2014).
4.3 Effect of stratification
Comparison of suspended sediment concentration with and without stratification effect is depicted in
Fig. 3, Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 for constant, linear and parabolic sediment diffusion coefficients, respectively.
The required parameters are specified within the figures. It is quite clear from the figures that the
concentration distribution decreases in stratified flow in comparison to neutral flow for each type of
diffusion coefficient. It happens because the stratification effect dampens the sediment diffusivity. Also,
it can be seen that the effect of stratification is more at high time comparison to low time. The prominent
change in the concentration profile with and without stratification effect shows the importance of including
this effect in the mathematical model.
1 1 1
0.9 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
0 0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Figure 3: Concentration profiles with and without stratification with C0 (Z) = 0 and nH = 4 for constant
sediment diffusion coefficient at different times.
9
1 1 1
0.9 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
0 0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Figure 4: Concentration profiles with and without stratification with C0 (Z) = 0 and nH = 4 for linear
1 1 1
0.9 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
0 0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Figure 5: Concentration profiles with and without stratification with C0 (Z) = 0 and nH = 4 for parabolic
1 1 1
with n H=4 with n H=4 with n H=4
0.9 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
0 0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(a) (b) (c)
Figure 6: Concentration profiles with and without hindered settling effect taking ca = 0.05 and C0 (Z) = 0
for different sediment diffusion coefficients (a) constant, (b) linear and (c) parabolic.
4.4 Effect of hindered settling
The effect of hindered settling mechanism on sediment concentration through the exponent nH for dif-
ferent types of sediment diffusion coefficients is shown in Fig. 6 and 7 for both cases sediment free inlet
i.e. C0 (Z) = 0 and uniform inlet sediment concentration i.e. C0 (Z) = 1, respectively. Continuous line
stands for distribution of concentration with hindered settling effect i.e. nH = 4 and dotted line stands
for concentration distribution without hindered settling effect i.e. nH = 0. One can see from Fig. 6
10
1 1 1
0.9 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
0 0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
(a) (b) (c)
Figure 7: Concentration profiles with and without hindered settling effect taking ca = 0.05 and C0 (Z) = 1
for different sediment diffusion coefficients (a) constant, (b) linear and (c) parabolic.
that in case of sediment free inlet, the effect of hindered settling is more prominent in the main flow
region for all types of sediment diffusion coefficients. It happens since at the surface of the channel very
less sediment particles are available and in the bed region particles are not in suspension due to high
concentration. On the other hand, for uniform inlet sediment concentration, effect of hindered settling is
also visible at the top of the channel for linear and constant sediment diffusion profiles (see Fig. 7). The
result is in accordance with Mohan et al. (2020).
4.5 Concentration variation with vertical height at different time
Transient suspended sediment concentration profiles for different type of sediment diffusion coefficients
and uniform inlet sediment concentration i.e. C0 (Z) = 1 at different time T = 0.5, T = 2.0, T = 5.0 and
T → ∞ are plotted in Fig. 8. The other required parameters are nH = 4, β = 0, A = 0.05, B = 2.0,
V0 = 0.2, C∗ = 1.0 and ca = 0.05. It can be seen from Fig. 8 that at the beginning of time all profiles are
nearly same except at the top portion of the channel where parabolic profile tends to zero at surface and
at large time linear profiles deviate more in comparison to others. Also that at large time, the pattern
shows the Rouse type concentration profile as in that case unsteady problem behaves like a steady one
(Mohan et al., 2020). Results of Fig. 8 are similar to the result of Liu and Nayamatullah (2014) and
Mohan et al. (2020) which proves the validity of the model.
4.6 Bottom Concentration
Overshooting of bottom boundary concentration is an interesting feature in one-dimensional unsteady

problems. It is observed by many researchers (Cheng, 1984; Liu and Nayamatullah, 2014; Celik and
Rodi, 1988; Jobson and Sayre, 1970) that bottom concentration profiles overshoot its equilibrium in the
beginning of time and later slowly reaches to its equilibrium. From the mathematical point of view one
can analyze this phenomenon. The bottom boundary condition Eq. (2.18) defines the net flux to be equal
to the difference between deposition flux and entrainment flux. On the other hand, initial condition C0 (Z)
is described at T = 0. So at the beginning, bottom boundary condition might not be compatible with
the initial one and behaves like a disturbance. It can be observed from Fig. 9 that parameters V0 , C∗ , B
and the initial condition C0 (Z) affect the overshooting behaviour of bottom concentration. Fig. 9 shows
that the overshooting happen at the beginning irrespective of any type of sediment diffusion coefficient
profile when one considers uniform inlet concentration i.e. C0 (Z) = 1. On the other hand, for sediment
11
1 1
parabolic parabolic
0.9 linear 0.9 linear
constant constant
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
1 1
parabolic parabolic
0.9 linear 0.9 linear
constant constant
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Figure 8: Transient concentration profile with the initial condition C0 (Z) = 1
free inlet i.e. C0 (Z) = 0, no overshooting is observed for any type of sediment diffusion coefficient profile.
These results are in accordance with the results of Liu and Nayamatullah (2014), Liu (2016) and Mohan
et al. (2020).
5 Conclusions
The present work finds a numerical solution for unsteady one-dimensional suspended sediment transport
in an open channel turbulent flow taking into consideration ‘stratification’ and ‘hindered settling’ effect
which are two important turbulent features for flow carrying sediments. The theoretical formulation
of the problem generates a non-linear PDE which has been solved numerically. Under certain specific
conditions, the derived solution shows agreement with previously obtained solutions by other researchers.
It has also been found that concentration distribution decreases when stratification effect is taken into
consideration because sediment diffusivity is damped due to the said effect. Hindered settling effect has
been found to be prominent in the main flow region than near the bed or free surface; because near the
bed particles are not in suspension and near the free surface concentration is too low especially when the
inlet is sediment free. In case of uniform inlet concentration, overshooting of bottom concentration is
observed. All the results can explain the physical behavior of a turbulent flow in the presence of sediments
and hence can be used to model sediment transport in an open channel flow.
12
2 1.1
constant constant
1.9 Linear 1.09 Linear
Parabolic Parabolic
1.8 1.08
1.7 1.07
1.6 1.06
1.5 1.05
1.4 1.04
1.3 1.03
1.2 1.02
1.1 1.01
1 1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
3 1
constant constant
2.8 Linear 0.9 Linear
Parabolic Parabolic
2.6 0.8
2.4 0.7
2.2 0.6
2 0.5
1.8 0.4
1.6 0.3
1.4 0.2
1.2 0.1
1 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Figure 9: Bottom concentration profiles for different turbulent diffusion coefficients
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15
27 th International Confe
Conference
rence on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental and Coastal
December 22 -24, 2022
Reclamation of Wastewaters Using Microalgae and Microalgal

Bioremediation Potential: A Review
Ravish S.1, Khan A.2, Kumari A.3, Singh A.4
1
Assistant Professor, J.C. Bose University of Science and Technology (YMCA), Faridabad,
India – 121006; Email:
Email:- sandeepravish0036@gmail.com
@gmail.com
2,3,4
Under Graduate Students, J.C. Bose University of Science and Technology (YMCA),
Faridabad – 121006; Email: sandeepravish89@jcboseust.ac.in
Abstract
Industries are multiplying; as a result, industries dis

discharge
charge contaminated water into natural
water bodies which causes environmental problems and also affects the health of human
beings. Industrial contamination badly affects water quality, a prime issue in the Faridabad
district in Haryana state. The present study summarized the process of contaminants removal,
microalgal bioremediation potential, and use of wastewater
wastewater-grown
grown microalgal, existing
challenges, and the future scope of microalgae use for the treatment of different types of
wastewater. Treating sewage age has become a significant concern in developing countries like
India, Bangladesh, etc. Globally several methods are used for wastewater treatment, such as
sludge treatment, primary and secondary treatment, ultrafiltration, and electrodialysis
reversal(EDR).
DR). However, most of these methods cannot treat wastewater to the maximum
and are very expensive for developing nations as wastewater consists of various impurities
such as organic-inorganic
inorganic compounds, metals, and heavy metals. Recently sewage treatment
with
ith the help of microalgae has become an effective technique compared to conventional
methods. It is based on the fact that microalgae use nitrogen, phosphorus, and other heavy
metals for their cell growth. Microalgae reduce the amount of carbon
carbon-dioxide
dioxide footprint
fo that is
present in the atmosphere during the process of photosynthesis and produce a sufficient
amount of oxygen. Microalgae can remove approx 90% of impurities from wastewater.
Hence, microalgal bioremediation could be used as a single biological technique or combined
with existing treatment techniques for efficiently reclaiming wastewater.
Keywords: Faridabad, Micro--Algae,

Algae, Organic, Inorganic Compounds, Heavy Metals, etc.
1. Introduction
The continuous increase in the world populace, economic de development

velopment, and rapid
urbanization have raised environmental contamination and resource scarcity scarcity, such as
emerging pollutants in natural water bodies
bodies, heavy metals, nutrients, etc.
etc (Lavrinovičs and
Juhna, 2017). This has occurred in water quality degradati
degradation,
on, which harms human well-being
well
and ecology. Hence, feasible water reuse methods are needed to trace the water quality
deterioration and pure water crisis problems (Hwang et al., 2016). The treated water could be
beneficially applied for several activitie
activities,
s, such as domestic, irrigation, and industrial
purposes. However, there are different methods available for wastewater treatment, such as
primary, secondary,& tertiary, ion exchange, electrodialysis, ultrafiltration, and
Page 1
Conference
December 22 -24, 2022
electrodialysis reversal (EDR), ox

oxidation,
idation, etc. These traditional methods face many problems
as most are neither efficient nor economical. Therefore there is a need for alternate methods
for treating wastewater that would be economical and efficient. Wastewater treatment
(WWT) is one approach ach to recycling and reusing water, but it is still mostly limited to
secondary remediation (Wang et al., 2017; Moondra et al., 2020). Further, this reclaimed
water type does not comply with the required pre pre-eminence
eminence guidelines for reusing water and,
when disposed to water-bodies,
bodies, accounts for high toxicity, deficient dissolved oxygen levels,
pH fluctuations, and dead aquatic zones(Abinandan and Shanthakumar, 2015). These
constraints of established sewage remediation (ESR) have led to advancing more feasibl feasible
methods, such as algae-based
based remediation approaches.
Tam and Wong (1989) have applied the algae

algae-based
based sewage remediation (ABSR) approach in
past years. This approach is rooted in mixing nutrients, like phosphorus and nitrogen, by
micro-algae that exist in sewage for their advancement, which finally decreases the
concentration of nutrients in the examined sewage (Rezaei et al., 2019; Whitton et al., 2016).
According to Goncalves et al. (2017), wastewater remediation (WWR) applying algae
accounts for eliminating
inating organic matter, heavy metals, and nutrients from approximately low
to total removal. Table 1 shows the various types of wastewater, like agrarian, industrial, and
metropolitan, that have been favorably used as a medium for the cultivation of micro micro-algae
(Arcila and Buitrón, 2016; Abou
Abou-Shanab
Shanab et al., 2013; Kothari et al., 2013; Ji et al., 2013; Ji et
al., 2018).
Effluent from dairy and piggery sewage could be treated more efficiently by applying micromicro-
algae benchmarked with factory
factory-made wastewater (Girard et al., 2014). Because the salt
content of factory-made
made wastewater is more, more conductivity might be a factor for the
restriction of advancement for a few micro
micro-algae
algae strains. Several investigators (Wang et al.,
2012) have observed that effluent from digested piggery could be applied as an economical
medium to produce algal biomass without any synthetic additions and give reuse of nutrients.
Additionally, the algal biomass generated could be utilized as a natural substance for biofuels
generation (bioethanol and biodiesel) and other beneficial material, such as carotenoids,
vitamins, antimicrobials, and various other nutritious products (Delanka
(Delanka-Pedige
Pedige et al., 2019;
Schwarz et al., 2019; Campbell et al., 2011).
Hence, integrating WWR and generati

generating value-added
added substances from algal biomass is a
sustainable substitute for ESR approaches with both environmental and economic
advantages. However, despite the added benefits, specific challenges confine the application
of ABWWR. Moreover, there are nume numerous
rous factors on which ABWWR, biomass production,
its amount, and type of value
value-added
added substances generated, nutrients removal, and harvesting
depend, such as the application of microalgal consortia or monoculture for various sewage
types, the mechanism of interactions,
nteractions, algal growth conditions, and algal strain selection
(Acién Fernández et al., 2018; Al Ketife et al., 2017; Ma et al., 2014; Su et al., 2012;
Amengual-Morro
Morro et al., 2012; Li et al., 2011). Further, biotic elements, such as nutrient load,
light intensity, inoculums dose, carbon dioxide, temperature, pH, and abiotic components,
such as pathogens type, exist in wastewater and influence the efficiency of ABWWR(Qu et
al., 2019; Whitton et al., 2016; Wong, 2016). Integrated with the formerly listed fa factors, high
Page 2
Conference
December 22 -24, 2022
operating costs (culture medium expenses and biomass harvesting), public health issues, lack
of convenient technology, and low biomass productivity develop financial viability problems.
Hence, further study must be done to create a more practic
practical
al approach to deal with the
previously defined concerns, which act as critical constraints to the efficient application of
ABWWR.
Table 1 Different sewage types applied as a media for micro

micro-algae
algae cultivation at the global level
Authors Source of Sewage Species applied Remarks
Sewage Types
Wang et al., 2010 Municipal Cenetrate Chlorella sp. Microalgal
production was
more suitable than
the other types of
sewage in centrate,
and the rate of
elimination of
chemical oxygen
demand (COD),
phosphorus, and
nitrog
nitrogen was
absolutely
correlated with the
nutrient content in
the sewage.
AlMomani and Municipal Primary mixed native Production rates for
Örmeci, 2016 sewage, microalgae (MNM), the 03 micro-algae
secondary Neochlorisoleoabundan were not similar in
sewage, s, and Chlorella vulgaris the same
and wastewater. MNM
centrate had superior sewage
reclamation
efficiency than the
other 02 micro-micro
algae strains
Lima et al., 2020 Municipal Primary Autochthonous Observed that the
effluent examined species
had better rates of
elimination of TP
and TN, reaching 61
and 77 percent,
respectively. But
the biochemical
oxygen demand and
COD contents could
not be significantly
Page 3
Conference
December 22 -24, 2022
decreased.
Ji et al., 2013 Municipal Municipal Adding a particular Found that it can
concentration of CO2 enhance lipid
(15%) to municipal productivity and
wastewater microalgae growth
and simultaneously
improve the
removal rate of
nutrients
Lavrinovičs et al., Municipal Municipal Pre-treatment of Observed that it can
2020 phosphorus starvation effectively increase
incr
the removal of
phosphorus
CañizaresVillanu Agricultur Swine Spirulina maxima and It can be applied to
eva et al., 1995 al (diluted to Phormidium sp. feed the animal
50% by
distilled
water)
Wang et al., 2010 Agricultur Dairy Chlorella sp. The maximum
al elimination rate of
COD, phosphorus,
and nitrogen was
found
Zhu et al., 2013 Agricultur Piggery Tubular bubble-column The elimination of
al photobioreactor TP, TN, and COD
was 85.00
85.00–100,
68.96
68.96–82.70, and
65.81
65.81–79.84
percent,
respectively. The
productiviti
productivities of
biodiesel and lipid
were 11.85–30.14
11.85
and 48.69–110.56
48.69
milligrams per liter
per day.
Chen et al., 2020 Agricultur Piggery Chlorella-sorokiniana Efficiencies of the
al AK-1 sewage removal of
TP, TN, and COD
were beyond ninety
percent.
Ganeshkumar et Agricultur Piggery Chlorella sp. MM3 Rates of elimination
al., 2018 al of PO43— and TN
were the maximum,
approaching 56.56
Page 4
Conference
December 22 -24, 2022
and 89.36 percent,

respectively, and
the maximum yield
of biomass can be
observed to
generate a
considerable biofuel
quantity.
Lv J et al., 2018 Agricultur Cow’s Chlorella vulgaris Found that it can
al farm significantly
eliminate
contaminants in the
sewage
El-Kassas and Industrial Textile Chlorella vulgaris It can significantly
Mohamed, 2014; eliminate color,
Rajkumar R and COD, phosphorus,
Sobri, 2016; Lim and nitrogen in
et al., 2010 sewage.
Chinnasamy et Industrial Industrial 15 native stains The nutrient
al., 2010 removal rate can
reach 96 percent,
and the maximum
lipid yield and
biomass were
found.
Pena et al., 2020 Industrial Tannery Tetraselmis sp. Observed that under
stable light-
conditions, the rates
of elimination of
COD, TP, and TN
could approach
56.7, 97.64, and
71.74 percent,
respectively. Also
observed absolute
bio-sorption
efficiency for metal
ions.
Moreno-García et Industrial Tannery Native microalgae Observed that it can
al., 2021 consortium adsorb 99 percent of
Chromium
Therefore, this study explored all the associated details to cover the above
above-listed issues,
including processes, techniques, and various biorefinery options for cultivating microalgae
and microalgal bioremediation of different types of wastewater. Eventually, the main
Page 5
Conference
December 22 -24, 2022
challenges in recreating wastewater using microalgae are highlighted, and

suggestions/recommendations are made to overcome these challen
challenges.
2.1 Phenomena and Affecting Parameters during the Microalgae

Microalgae-Based Sewage
Remediation
2.1.1 Phenomena of Nutrients and Contaminants Elimination
The prime objective of microalgal

microalgal-based
based sewage remediation is to eliminate pollutants
poll from
sewage and transform nutrients into algal biomass. It can generate biofuels, fertilizer, and
animal feed due to microalgae's profound high
high-value
value products like pigments, lipids, and
proteins (Tang et al., 2020). The mechanisms of microalgae to rremove emove pollutants in
wastewater and summarized conditions for culturing microalgae have been presented in
Figure 1 and Table 2. Table 3 shows the microalgae participants' categorization in municipal
sewage remediation.
Muncipal, Agricultural
and Industrial Sewage
Sewage (Rich of Trace

Elements, P, N, C)
Microalgae Cultivation
(Cultivation System: Harvesting of Microlage Nutrients Convert into
Open Ponds and Closed (Sewage Remediation Algal Biomass)
Photobioreactors)
Use of Algal Biomass:

Biofertilizers
Animal Feed
Biofuels
Figure 1 Sewage bioremediation mech
mechanism using microalgal and its use
Page 6
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December 22 -24, 2022
Table 2 Summarized surroundings set for culturing microalgae

Parameter Range Optimal
Temperature (degree Celsius) 16 to 27 18 to 24
Salinity (gram per liter) 12 to 40 20 to 24
pH 7.0 to 9.0 8.2 to 8.7
The intensity
ty of Light (Lux) 1000-10,000 25000 to 5000
Photoperiod (light:darks) 16:8(min.) 24:0(max)
Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous are the essential macronutrients for microalgae growth.
These elements participate in the synthesis of adenosine triphosphate (A (ATP), adenosine
diphosphate (ADP), deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), ribonucleic acid (RNA), enzymes,
chlorophyll, proteins peptides, phospholipids, ATP, nucleic acids, and other substances in
cells of micro-algae
algae (Juneja et al., 2013; Ghosh et al., 2017; Markou et al., 2014; Mirón et al.,
2003; Sniffen et al., 2018). The phenomenon of nutrients and pollutant elimination is
presented in Eqs. 1,2, 3, 4, 5, and 6(Singh and Mishra, 2019; Nagarajan et al., 2020; Leng et
al., 2020).
2H2O + 3ADP + 2NADP++ 3P Light →2H++ 3ATP + 2NADPH + O2 (1)
3CO2+ 6NADPH + 9ATP + 6H+Rubisco→ C3H6O3−phosphate

phosphate + 6NADP++ 9ADP + 8P +
3H2O (2)
Where,
NADPH = Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate
Light Rx. →ATP + NADPH → Dark Rx. (Calvin Cycle) →(Organic C) Triose
Phosphate→Acetyl-CoA →Fatty Acyl
Acyl-ACP→Diacylglyceride→Phosopholipid→Glycolipid
→Diacylglyceride→Phosopholipid→Glycolipid
Fatty Acyl-ACP → Fatty Acyl

Acyl-CoA→(Smooth
→(Smooth Endoplasmic Recticulum) Acyl-CoA
Acyl →
Diacylglyceride→Triacylglyceride→Oil
→Triacylglyceride→Oil bodies] (3)
NO3-→NO2-→NH4+→Glutamine→2
→Glutamine→2-OxoglutarateChloroplast→Glutamate
→Glutamate → Carbohydrates
→Lipids (4)
Organic P →Phosphatase→ PO43- + HPO42- + H2PO4-→ Acid-insoluble

Acid
polyphosphate→Protein+DNA+RNA
→Protein+DNA+RNA (5)
biotransformation/biosorption
Heavy metals (Hms) →Detoxification
Detoxification of HMs using microalgae
(6)
Antibiotics biotransformation/biosorption/biodegradation/photodegradation/hydrolysis→ Antibiotics Removal by
Microalgae (7)
Hence, accurately disposing

posing of the micro
micro-algal bio-mass
mass loaded with heavy metals is a central
Page 7
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December 22 -24, 2022
problem in preventing the secondary contamination of heavy metals in biomass. Presently,

the antibiotic elimination method rooted in microalgae is still in its initial stage. The
microalgae's
oalgae's capacity to eliminate antibiotics in practical sewage remains to be clarified. The
cumulative elimination of intermediate products and numerous antibiotics in antibiotic
detoxification also requires further exploration.
Table 3 Microalgae partic

participants’
ipants’ categorization in municipal sewage purification
(Santhanam, 2009)
Phylum Nomencl Genus Species Utilized Function in
ature Sewage
Purification
Ochro-phyta Red- Sargassum S.-muticum,
muticum, Eliminates dye
plastid Diatoms (methylene-blue)
origin
Cyano-phyta Bluegree Spirulina S.-gracilus
gracilus Biosorption of
n protein
production and
metal ions
Chryso-phyta YellowGr Prymnesium P.-parvam Metal ions
een elimination
Eugleno- Motile Euglena E.-gracilis Embezzle
phyte Green CO2and nutrients
from the water
Chlorophyta Green- Pediastrum, Microactinium, C. sorokiniana, Eliminates
algae Actinastrum, C. vulgaris, S. phosphorus,
Ankistrodesmus, abundans, B. nitrogen,
Botryococcus, Pithophora, braunii, D. salina pathogen, metal
Dunaliella, Scenedesmus, ions, and dye
Chlorella.
2.1.2 Microalgae Affecting Parameters on the Elimination of Contaminants and

Nutrients
Several parameters influence the elimination of contaminants and nutrients using microalgae,
like temperature, light(i.e., light
light-dark ratio, light quality,
uality, and intensity), sewage signatures,
and microalgae species. It has been observed that Scenedesmus sp. and Chlorella sp. can
eliminate antibiotics, metal ions, and nutrients in industrial and agricultural sewage. Several
microalgae species can be app applied
lied in domestic sewage remediation, like Neochloris
oleoabundans, Isochrysis galbana, Haematococcus Pluvialis, Chlorella pyrenoidosa,
Dunaliella salina, Botryococcus braunii, Arthrospira platensis, Spirulina maxima,
Scenedesmus obliquus, and Chlorella vul vulgaris,
garis, (Leong et al., 2020). Figure 2 manifests the
percentage rate of nutrients elimination in domestic sewage using different microalgae
species (Lopez-Pacheco
Pacheco et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2020; Kamarudin et al.,
2013; Kumar et al., 2018).. Various sewage types' chemical and physical properties (i.e.,
Page 8
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December 22 -24, 2022
contaminants, nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorous proportion, hydroxyl ion, and chromaticity
concentration) are discontiguous, which significantly influence microalgae growth and
elimination rate
ate of nutrients (Cai et al., 2013). Usually, longer light time and higher light
intensity can increase the nutrient elimination rate. The microalgae productivity rate under
blue and red light is more than other light pre
pre-eminences
eminences under the same light power
pow (Like
green and yellow light) (Su, 2021). Based on thermal readings, the microalgae's physio physio-
logical metabolism and its efficiency in eliminating pollutants are improved as the
temperature rises. The elimination rate arrives at the maximum when the therthermal cultivation
condition is convenient to the optimum micro
micro-algae
algae production level (Gonçalves et al., 2017).
Comprehensively, microalgae can transform P, N, and C in sewage into biomass. Moreover,
contaminants can be eliminated through biodegradation, biobioaccumulation,
accumulation, and biosorption.
100
Nutrients Removal rate in %age
90
80
70
60
50 COD
40
NH4+
30
20 TN
10 TP
0
Sewage Types
Notation used:
WWTPE- Wastewater treatment plant effluent
RSBPS- Raw sewage before primary sedimentation
WWAPS- Wastewater after primary sedimentation
PE - Primary Effluent
SE- secondary effluent
CMWW - Concentrated Municipal
ipal Wastewater
CN- Centrate
Figure 2 Indicate the percentage rate of nutrients elimination in domestic sewage using
different microalgae species
2.2 Growth Modes and Cultivation System of Microalgae
According to different environmental conditions, mic

microalgae
roalgae can choose various modes of
growth for metabolism, such as mixotrophic, heterotrophic, and autotrophic modes.
Microalgae use various energy and nutrition sources, resulting in different cell composition
and growth characteristics (Chojnacka and Mar
Marquez-Rocha,
Rocha, 2004). Microalgae autotrophic
cultivation uses light sources and inorganic carbon through photosynthesis to accumulate
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biomass that aids in reducing global CO2. However, under phototrophic conditions, the
content of microalgae biomass cultivate
cultivated
d is not high. Gouveia and Oliveir (2009)stated that
the production estimate of micro
micro-algae
algae under optimal conditions of some autotrophic strains
is 0.2 grams per liter per day. The heterotrophic culturing of microalgae does not require light
to maintain their
eir metabolism and average growth and utilizes organic compounds (like acetic
acid, glycerol, and glucose) as sources of energy. Some microalgae species can develop under
heterotrophic conditions with a lack of light and autotrophic conditions with the lig light.
According to Chew et al. (2018), it has been noted that particular microalgae can produce
lipid yields and higher biomass under heterotrophic cultivation than under autotrophic
cultivation. However, the heterotrophic culturing cost is comparatively hig higher due to the
requirement for organic carbon sources. The application of organic elements in sewage can
solve this problem.
Furthermore, the closed photo

photo-bioreactor
bioreactor is more appropriate for its largescale growth as this
culturing approach is prone to poll
pollution
ution due to the presence of organic matter (Chen et al.,
2011). Mixotrophic cultivation under light conditions uses organic and inorganic compounds
as carbon sources for metabolism and growth. For numerous microalgae species, mixotrophic
cultivation can achieve
chieve maximum biomass than individual cultivation of heterotrophic and
autotrophic (Chew et al., 2018).
2.2.1 Cultivation Methods of Microalgae
The large-scale
scale microalgae cultivation method is principally classified under two heads: open
and closed. The microalgae cultivation methods are shown in Figure 3. Further, the merit and
demerits of both the cultivation system have been summarized in Table 4(Pulz, 2001; Pires et
al., 2017).
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Cultivation Sytem
of Microbial Cells
Immobilized/Attached Suspended System

System
Passive/Natural Active/Artificial Open Closed
Confinement, Entrapmen
t with
Polymers, Covalent Photobiorector:
Microbial Biofilm Natural Ponds: Lakes Tubular, Bubble
Coupling, Semi- and Lagoons
Formation Column, Flat Plate
permeable
Memberanes, Adsorption
s
Artificial Ponds: High

Rate Algal and Raceway
Figure 3 Classification of algae cultivation schemes
Table 4 Highlightt the merit and demerits of open and closed microalgae cultivation methods
(Liu and Hong, 2021)
Cultivation Merits Demerits
Methods
Flat-plate Easy to sterilize, low dissolved Low photosynthetic
photobioreactor oxygen accumulation, high efficiency, brutal to scale
biomass productivity, suitable for up and control culture
outdoor
tdoor cultivation, and sizeable temperature
light surface area
Column Easy to sterilize, adjust the light
light- Small light surface area,
photobioreactor dark cycle, operate, compact, high cost compared to
reduced photoinhibition, open ponds
photooxi
photooxidation, and high mass
transfer
Tubular High biomass productivity, Adhesion of microalgae
photobioreactor suitable for outdoor cultivation, cells on the tube wall,
and sizeable light surface area photoinhibition,
hotoinhibition, poor
mass transfer, and high
cost compared to open
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ponds
Open ponds Easy to maintain, clean after It is easily polluted and
cultivation, low energy input and interfered with by the
operation cost weather, low light
utilization rate by
microalgae,
oalgae, large land
area, and water
evaporation.
2.3 Biomass Recovery Methods of Microalgae
After the sewage application to cultivate microalgae, microalgae harvesting is a significant

base for the subsequent processing of algae algae-biomass.
biomass. The prime harvesting
harvesti techniques
include flocculation, flotation, filtration, centrifugation, and gravity sedimentation (Monte et
al., 2018; Junior et al., 2020). The advantages and disadvantages of these recovery methods
and their applications have been shown in tabular for form (Table 5).
Briefly, each recovery technique has its merits and demerits. More effective recovery
methods can be frequently advanced, or multiple processes can be combined to use various
microalgae species to obtain effective microalgae recovery.
Table 5 The advantages and disadvantages of these recovery methods, along with their
applications
Authors Biomass Advantages Disadvantages Microalgae
Recovery Biomass
Methods Application
s
Junior et Centrifugati a) Most a) Maximum energy cost and a) Can be
al., 2020 on generally large shear force generated applied as
applied during the mechanism, which the feed-
technique for may cause cell damage l stock for the
rapid recovery bioactive
of micro-algae, compound
and its output extraction,
can reach 98 generation
percentage of
biofertilizers
, animal
feed, and
biofuels,
Brennan Sedimentati a) Convenient a) The size and density of the b) Due to
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and on for the recovery algae-cells

cells confines slow and the
Owende, of massive rate of settling maximum
2010 micro-algae concentratio
with a particle b) Due to its low settling rate, n of
size > 70 algae recovery with a antioxidants
micro-algae
micron-meter five , vitamins,
particle size of four to five-
micron meters is not feasible. lipids,
b) Micro-algae The sedimentation on working carbohydrat
settling amount is comparatively less, es, and
efficiency with the recovery capacity is proteins, it
high-cell- confined, and the process is can be
density is slow, so it is usually applied applied to
superior to that in amalgamation with generate
of low-density centrifugation, flocculation, value-added
micro-algae and other methods to enhance products
recovery capacity and
decrease the time of
sedimentation
Japar et al., Flotation a) Suitable for a) Not Suitable for
or harvesting
2017 low-density high-density microalgae
harvesting
microalgae
Japar et al. Filtration a) Tangential a) Replacement of the
2017 flow filtration is membrane filter and fouling
considered to be undoubtedly enhance the
more suitable amount
than dead-end
filtration for
suspended algae
with a small cell
volume
b) Membrane
filtration has a
maximum
recovery
capacity
Bhattachar Flocculation a) Biological a) Chemical flocculation and
ya and flocculation has physical flocculation are less
Goswami, the merits of efficient and complex
2020 non-toxicity, operation
safety, simple
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operation, and
energy-efficient,
which has
significant
growth
efficiency
3. Major Challenges and Recommendations for Future Research
Although the application of sewage from various sources, i.e., industrial, agric
agricultural, and
municipal wastewater, to harvest microalgae has been broadly investigated, recently, some
pilot research has progressively generated, and most of the studies remain on the lablab-scale
(Posadas et al.,2015). This research examined the suitability of three semi-industrial
semi outdoor
raceway ponds to remediate secondary municipal wastewater and observed that the
elimination rates of TP, TN, and COD could achieve 57, 79, and 84%, respectively. Along
similar lines, the authors applied a pilot
pilot-scale thin-layer
layer cascade photobioreactor to purify
primary sewage in an urban area (Zurano et al.,2020). The outcomes noted that the
microalgae-bacteria
bacteria system still indicates enormous stability, although the environmental
conditions and composition of the sewage are changed. However, after the mechanism is
developed to a commercial scale, the effectiveness may vary, so under realistic working
environments, its economy and suitability are still an urgent necessity for a planned study.
Hence, the main works in the subssubsequent
equent time still incorporate advancing and screening
effective algae convenient for developing systems or equipment, designing, and various
sewage types.
Moreover, future research can be applied for capture technologies, developing costcost-effective
microalgae
gae separation, optimizing cultivation conditions, and large
large-scale
scale cultivation. Further,
locating the secondary contamination will also become the future research area after the
transformation and absorption of primary contaminants. Future work may focus oon advancing
safety assurance methods for the micro
micro-algae
algae biomass application developed after sewage
treatment. These findings can productively enhance the scientific knowledge in the current
research area for the proper development of the region.
4. Conclusions
The following conclusions are derived from the primary research:

(i) The integrated method based on sewage bioremediation, microalgae biomass
generation, and highly valued products has absolute use prospects. It can cumulatively obtain
multiple objectives
ctives as follows:
a) Treatment of sewage
b) Harvesting of nutrients
c) Generation of value-added
added microalgal biomass
(ii) This review paper highlights the study breakthrough of microalgae in purifying
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industrial, agricultural, and domestic sewage. Further

Further,, the current research paper details
microalgae's process and affecting parameters to eliminate contaminants and nutrients.
(iii) Moreover, the cultivation and harvesting method of microalgae biomass and its use is
explained.
(iv) Comprehensively, most of the present sewage purification and technology of biomass
generation based on micro-algae
algae remain on the lab scale. There are still several challenges in
industrial scale uses, which are worthy of future investigation.
(v) In addition, there is still a vas
vastt space for study on whether sewage contaminants are
invulnerable to microalgae biomass's resource implementation.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the academic support from the Civil Engineering Department, J. C.
Bose University of Science and Technology, YMCA, Faridabad, Haryana, 121 006, to carry
out the present work.
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Page 19
Numerical Modelling of Triangular Central Baffle Flume
Nair P. S.1, Ghare A. D.2, Vasudeo A. D.3, Kapoor A.4, Sadan P. P. 5

1
440010, INDIA
2
INDIA
3
INDIA
4
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, G H Raisoni Institute of Engineering and Technology,
Nagpur 440028, INDIA
5
440010, INDIA
Email: sujith1251992@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
A CFD-based simulations study on the Triangular Central Baffle Flume (TCBF) is presented
in this paper. A TCBF consists of a triangular-shaped baffle placed vertically at the centerline
of the channel to contract the flow. The triangular baffle used for numerical modelling has an
apex angle of 75o for variable base width. The CFD - based numerical simulation of the TCBF
is performed using Flow-3D® which is known to provide accurate and faster simulation results
and has the capability of solving complex free surface flow problems. The numerical
simulations were performed using various turbulence models specifically standard k-ε model,
k-ω two equation model and RNG k-ε model. The results of the numerical simulations were
used to predict flow rate using an existing discharge prediction model for the TCBF. The
numerical simulation results show that the simulation performed using the RNG k-ε turbulence
model is more accurate in simulating the real flow conditions around the triangular central
baffle to be used for flow measurement in open channel.
Keywords: TCBF, simulation, numerical modelling and turbulence model.
1. Introduction
Water must be managed well since it is a priceless, limited, renewable, and shared resource
that is used by many different industries. An increasing amount of stress is being caused by
water scarcity. Water must be productively managed and effectively conserved in order to
lessen this burden. Water is provided through field channels to agricultural fields. A tariff is
charged per unit of water received, and the amount of water given to a field depends on the size
of the field, the type of crop, and the weather. Water measurement is therefore a crucial
component.
Typically, a flume is used to measure discharge in prismatic channels. The Venturiflume
(Cone, 1917), Parshall Flume (Parshall, 1926), Cutthroat Flume (Skogerboe, G. V., and M. L.
Hyatt, 1967), and others are some of the flumes that are frequently employed in open channels.
These flumes, which are usually referred to as fixed flumes, are traditionally built at the same
time as the channels. Hager (1985) used a cylindrical item inserted into a circular channel to
Page 1
first establish the idea of a movable flume. Due to the restricted flow area caused by the inserted
object, the throat section experienced critical flow conditions. Samani et al. (1991, 2017),
Samani, Z., and H. Magallanez (2000, 1993), Ghare and Badar (2012), and Ghare et al. (2020)
all used cylindrical objects to induce critical circumstances in open channels and presented
several modified stage – discharge equation. Using a cylindrical flume axially inserted inside
a trapezoidal channel, Samani et al. (1993) created a computer model. The maximum error in
discharge prediction calculated from computer model was 5.1%, which was later lowered to
4.7% by Badar and Ghare (2012). In studies conducted by Badar and Ghare (2014), the
influence of a cylindrical flume on a rectangular channel when positioned vertically was
investigated. The resulting model accurately predicted discharge with a maximum error of 5%.
By merging the Pi theorem concept with physical models at the laboratory scale, Samani (2017)
created a single calibrated discharge equation for application in trapezoidal, rectangular, and
circular channels. The obstruction used for all 3 different channels was cylindrical in shape.
The use of conical object as obstruction in mobile flumes was also proposed by Hager (1986)
which was later investigated by Kapoor et al. (2019) and proposed the discharge prediction
model using energy concept. A straight forward and inexpensive central baffle flume (CBF)
was proposed by Peruginelli and Bonacci in 1995. It is built utilising a rectangular central baffle
and entrance guide walls that are positioned in the centre of a rectangular channel. Inferring
the stage-discharge formula for a central baffle flume using Buckingham's theorem, Ferro
(2016) calibrated it using experimental results from Peruginelli and Bonacci (1995). Other
experimental runs, according to Ferro (2016), were required to test CBF flumes with various
throat length to channel width ratios.
In the present study CFD-based numerical simulations studies have been conducted on
Triangular Central Baffle Flume (TCBF) proposed by Bijankhan et al. (2019). The main
objective of the study is to develop a numerical model for TCBF and validate it by comparing
the simulation results with experimental results. Bijankhan et al. (2019) proposed a head-
discharge relationship for TCBF expressed in Eq. (1)
𝑄 ℎ 1.5734
= 0.6925 ( ) (1)
𝐵𝑐2.5 ∗ 𝑔0.5 𝐵𝑐
where, h = upstream flow depth (m), Bc = contracted width (m) = B – b, b = width of triangular
baffle (m), g = acceleration due to gravity (m/s2)
Flow
75 b B
Figure 1 Plan view of TCBF
Page 2
2.1 Numerical Model
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a branch of fluid mechanics that uses numerical
analysis and data structures to analyse and solve problems that involve fluid flows. In order to
simulate a physical case related to the fluid flow, the physical properties should be taken into
account accurately. In present study the flow condition is numerically simulated using Flow-
3D® software. Flow-3D® is a CFD software that is helpful in solving complex free surface
problems. Flow-3D employs the innovative Fractional Area Volume Obstacle Representation
(FAVORTM) meshing method. The method allows construction of simple structured
rectangular grids which makes the mesh easy to generate without affecting the numerical
accuracy of the simulation. The present study model is based on assumptions that the flow is
non-viscous and turbulent in nature. The geometry for simulation is created using AutoCAD
and imported in Flow-3D®. The flow area in simulation is replicated from experimental setup.
RNG k − ϵ turbulence model used in simulation. The RNG k − ϵ turbulence model is a
modified form of standard k- ϵ model which solves the two transport equations with Reynolds
stresses for the turbulence kinetic energy (k) and dissipation rate (ϵ). This model is widely used
in free surface calculation.
2.2 Governing Equation
The flow field is described using Continuity equation (2) and Navier-Stokes (Momentum
Conservation) Equation (3)
Continuity Equation
𝜕𝜌 𝜕(𝑢𝑖 ) (2)
+𝜌 =0
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑖
where ρ= Density of fluid, ui and uj are average velocity (i = 1, 2, 3 and j = 1, 2, 3), x, y, z are
Cartesian coordinates, µ = viscosity of fluid, p = pressure of the fluid and g = gravitational
acceleration.
Navier-Stokes Equation (Momentum Conservation)
𝜕𝑢𝑖 𝜕𝑢𝑗 𝜕𝑝 𝜇𝜕 2 𝑢𝑖 (3)
𝜌 + 𝜌𝑢𝑖 =− − 2 + 𝜌𝑔𝑗
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗
𝜕𝑢𝑖 : Local velocity change with time

𝜌
𝜕𝑡
𝜕𝑢𝑗 : Momentum convection
𝜌𝑢𝑖
𝜕𝑥𝑗
𝜕𝑝 : Surface Force/ Pressure gradient
𝜕𝑥𝑗
Page 3
𝜇𝜕 2 𝑢𝑖 : Molecular dependent momentum exchange (Diffusion) or viscosity

𝜕𝑥𝑗2 gradient.
𝜌𝑔𝑗 : Mass force or gravity force
2.3 Turbulence Model

For the present study, the turbulence models were used are; standard 𝑘 − 𝜖 , RNG 𝑘 − 𝜖
and standard k − ω models. All three turbulence models used in the study are two transport
equation type. These turbulence models differ on the basis of formulation. The k − ϵ model
consist of two transport variables i.e. turbulent kinetic energy (k) and dissipation rate (ϵ).
The RNG based 𝑘 − 𝜖 turbulence model provides with both accuracy and efficiency in the
modeling of turbulent flows. This model follows the two equation turbulence modeling
framework and has been derived from the original governing equations for fluid flow using
mathematical techniques called Renormalization Group (RNG) method due to Yakhot and
Orszag (1986). The RNG model provides a more general and fundamental model and is
expected to yield improved predictions of near wall flows, separated flows, flows in curved
geometries and flows that are strained by effects such as impingement or stagnation. Time
dependent flows with large-scale motions, as in turbulent vortex shedding are well
predicted by RNG 𝑘 − 𝜖 turbulence model. This model is modified form of 𝜖 equation and
is more sensitive to flows having strong shear region, due to presence of source term R.
The expression for turbulent kinetic energy (k) and dissipation rate (ϵ) is expressed as Eq.
(4) and Eq. (5), respectively.
𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑘 𝜕 𝜈𝑡 𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑢̅𝑖 𝜕𝑢̅𝑗 𝜕𝑢̅𝑖

+ 𝑢̅𝑖 = ( ) + 𝜈𝑡 ( + ) −𝜖 (4)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜎𝑘 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜕𝑥𝑗
𝜕𝜖 𝜕𝜖 𝜕 𝜈𝑡 𝜕𝜖 𝜖 𝜖2
+ 𝑢̅𝑖 = ( ) + 𝐶1𝜖 𝐺 − 𝐶2𝜖 −R (5)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜎𝜖 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝑘 𝑘
η ϵ2
𝐶µ ∗ η3 (1 − η )
0 𝑘
𝑅= 3
1 + 𝛽η
𝑘
η = ϵ √2 𝑆𝑖𝑗 𝑆𝑖𝑗
where 𝑆𝑖𝑗 is the mean rate of tensor for incompressible flow
1 𝜕𝑢̅𝑖 𝜕𝑢̅𝑗
𝑆𝑖𝑗 = ( + )
2 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑖
Page 4
where G is the generation of k and is given by

𝜕𝑢̅𝑖 𝜕𝑢̅𝑗 𝜕𝑢̅𝑖
𝐺 = 𝜈𝑡 ( + )
𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑖 𝜕𝑥𝑗
The turbulent viscosity is then related to k and 𝜖 by the expression
𝑘2
𝜈𝑡 = 𝐶𝜇
𝜖
The coefficients 𝐶𝜇 , 𝐶1𝜖 , 𝐶2𝜖 , 𝜎𝑘 and 𝜎𝜖 , are constants which have the following empirically
derived values
For standard k-ϵ model, 𝐶𝜇 = 0.09, 𝐶1𝜖 = 1.44, 𝐶2𝜖 = 1.92, 𝜎𝑘 = 1.00, 𝜎𝜖 = 1.30
For RNG k-ϵ model, 𝐶𝜇 = 0.0845, 𝐶1𝜖 = 1.42, 𝐶2𝜖 = 1.68, 𝜎𝑘 = 0.7194, 𝜎𝜖 = 0.7194
(with no R term)
The k-ω model is also called Wilcox k- ω model. The k- ω model is also a two-transport
variable equation, the only difference from the standard k- 𝜖 and RNG model is that the
second transport variable of k- ω model is turbulent frequency (ω), not turbulent dissipation
( 𝜖 ). The Wilcox turbulent model is expressed in Eq. (6) and Eq. (7)
𝜕 𝜕 𝜕𝑢𝑗 𝜕 𝜌𝑘 𝜕𝑘
(𝜌𝑘) + (𝜌𝑢𝑗 𝑘) = 𝜌𝜏𝑖𝑗 − 𝛽 ∗ 𝜌𝑘𝜔 + [(𝜇 + 𝜎 ∗ ) ] (6)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜔 𝜕𝑥𝑗
𝜕 𝜕 𝜔 𝜕𝑢𝑗 𝜕 𝜌𝑘 𝜕𝜔
(𝜌𝜔) + (𝜌𝑢𝑗 𝜔) = 𝛼 𝜌𝜏𝑖𝑗 − 𝛽𝜌𝑘𝜔2 + [(𝜇 + 𝜎 ∗ ) ] (7)
𝜕𝑡 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝑘 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜕𝑥𝑗 𝜔 𝜕𝑥𝑗
Here, α = 5/9, β = 3/40, β* = 9/100, σ = 1/2, and σ* = 1/2.
2.4 Model setup
The simulation model is constructed based on the experimental setup of Bijankhan et al. (2019).
The geometry model is constructed in AutoCAD. The geometry model consists of rectangular
channel having a bed width of 0.5 m, 0.6 m high and 12 m long. The flow is supplied in channel
from centrifugal pump to reservoir of 15 m3. Likewise in experimental setup the geometric
model is created and flow is provided in channel from a reservoir. To constrict the flow a
triangular central baffle flume is placed in 5 m upstream. The dimension of TCBF is shown in
Table. 1.
Page 5
Mesh 3
Mesh 2
Mesh 1
Figure 2 Mesh domain of numerical setup

Mesh generation or Gridding is a process of dividing an entire control volume into a set of small
control volumes. Each small subdivision represents its own approximation to the conservation
laws of momentum, mass and energy. In present simulation the whole computer domain is
divided into 3 mesh blocks (Fig. 2). Mesh block-1 is generated with 15 mm cell size which
covers both u/s reservoir and channel. Mesh block-2 is finer than Mesh block-1 with cell size
of 3.75mm. Mesh block-2 is inserted inside within Mesh block-1 around conical obstruction
vicinity. Mesh block-2 register more accurate information. Mesh block-3 is provided for
reservoir, the cell size of mesh is 4 mm.
Boundary condition for Mesh block-1 is established as wall function and symmetry for all the
boundaries as shown in Fig.3 while Mesh block-2 boundary condition is not assigned , because
it is been nested inside Mesh block-1. The boundary condition at downstream of channel is
outflow function. In numerical simulation, at first flow simulation was performed without any
obstruction for which a finish time of 150 s was specified. Then the simulation was restarted
after insertion of cone in the simulation problem. A simulation time of 200 s was allotted for
completion. All simulations were done in similar manner.
Figure 3 Boundary condition of numerical model

Page 6
The validation using numerical modelling is performed in two steps. In first step, the simulation
problem is validated by comparing upstream head (h) of the water of simulation and
experimental results for the same discharge and flow conditions using three different
turbulence models. The dimensions of TCBF used in simulation is provided in Table. 1. Once
the simulation model setup is validated, second step is the validation of existing discharge
prediction model (Eq. 1), using scaled up version of experimental setup i.e., two times scaled
up version.
Table 1 Dimension of TCBF
Flume B (cm) Bc (cm)

1 12.0 38.0
2 20.5 29.5
3 30.5 19.5
4 41.5 8.5
It is crucial to first validate the model setup created in Flow-3D. In the present study, the
simulation problem setup is verified by comparing the upstream flow depth with experimental
observations of Bijankhan et al. (2019). Table 2 shows the comparison of upstream flow depth
between experimental model and simulation model setup for three different turbulent model.
The numerical outcomes using RNG k- 𝜖 model shows better replication of experimental
observation (Table 2). On comparing upstream flow depth (h), the RNG k- 𝜖 model shows an
absolute mean error of 2.57 % and a maximum error of 5 %. While the results of standard k- 𝜖
model show less similarity to experimental observation. The error in upstream flow depth for
standard k- 𝜖 model was comparatively high as compared to RNG k- 𝜖 model results. The
absolute relative mean error was found to be 5.27 %. Simulation problem setup using standard
k-𝜔 turbulent model showing high variation when compared with the experimental
observations. The maximum difference between the experimental and simulation upstream
flow depth (h) is found to be 17.56 % with the mean error of 11.56 %.
From above validation results, it can be said that the out of all three turbulent models the RNG
k- 𝜖 turbulent model found to be more accurate towards experimental observation compared to
other two turbulent models. Now, all the physical parameter such as boundary conditions, mesh
size, flow condition, etc. along with RNG k- 𝜖 turbulent model is fixed for simulation problem
setup. Using these six physical parameters, another simulation model is created. This
simulation model is two times scaled-up version of the actual experimental setup. The
dimensions of scaled-up TCBF consist of b = 41 cm and Bc = 59 cm. The simulation is
performed for Q = 92 l/s. From the simulation outcome upstream flow depth (h) is calculated
as 17.8 cm. Now using Eq. (1) discharge has been calculated for the scaled version of TCBF.
The discharge value was found to be 88.01 l/s. The error in discharge between the actual
discharge and predicted discharge was found to be 3.46 %.
Page 7
Table 2 Upstream flow depth comparison of experiment and simulations
h
Q (m)
Flume
(l/s)
Experiment RNG k-ϵ Std. k-ϵ Std k-ω
5.34 4.6 4.45 4.3 3,92
16.26 9.1 8.8 8.61 8.04
1 27.01 12.8 12.6 12.08 11.5
40.18 16.5 16.45 15.94 14.78
45.04 17.6 17.32 17.15 15.5
4 3.8 3.71 3.45 4
7.6 7.28 7.12 6.57 7.6
2 8.94 8.63 8.5 7.8 8.94
12.1 11.9 11.7 10.98 12.1
13.74 13.5 13.1 12.2 13.74
2.9 2.76 2.65 2.39 2.9
15.3 14.95 14.55 13.72 15.3
3 24.6 24.2 23.6 22.2 24.6
11 10.8 10.3 9.7 11
29 28.78 27.85 26.2 29
2.2 2.1 2.02 1.85 2.2
5.4 5.2 5.02 4.7 5.4
4 8.3 8.03 7.8 7.3 8.3
11.1 10.81 10.6 9.95 11.1
15.5 15.2 14.96 14.1 15.5
4. Conclusions
From the present study, it can be concluded that the experimental results of TCBF showed
more similarity simulation based on RNG k-ε turbulence model. The upstream flow depth error
between experimental results and RNG-based simulation is less than + 5 %. Whereas for
standard k-ep simulation results the error in upstream flow depth is found to be + 10 %. The
standard k-omega simulation results showed very much variation from experimental results.
Out of three turbulent model RNG model found to be best alternative for numerical modelling
setup. In the present study, the numerical modeling is also performed for scaled up version of
TCBF. Using RNG based simulation the simulation is performed and discharged is predicted
using Eq. (1). The predicted discharge for scaled up version showed 3.46 % of actual discharge
provided.
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Monitoring Soil Erosion Prone Areas for Tawi River Catchment using
SWAT and RUSLE Model.
Rishi Gupta1, Gaurav Fouzdar2 and Vinay Chembolu3

1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Jammu, Jammu, India – 181221; Email: rishi.gupta@iitjammu.ac.in
2
MTech Student, Coca-Cola Department of Regional Water Studies, TERI school of advanced
studies, New Delhi, India – 110070; Email: gaurav.fouzdar@terisas.ac.in
3
Assitant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Jammu,
Jammu India – 181221; E-mail: chembolu.vinay@iitjammu.ac.in
Abstract
Soil erosion has always been a very challenging issue, especially in mountainous ecosystems.
The severity of soil erosion is increasing with rapid changes in climate and anthropogenic
activities. The movement of eroded soil and the reaching of sediment in river streams results
in silting up of river beds or reservoirs, which possibly turns into fluvial disasters. Universally
different rainfall soil transport models are available with the incorporation of different soil loss
equations for the computation of soil erosion. One or more models are suggested to be
ensembled in the data-scare regions. Here in this study, an analytical rainfall-runoff model
SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) has been set up for the Tawi river watershed of the J&K
region of India, with different input parameters such as DEM, soil classes, land use
classification, and meteorological dataset for daily level computation of water erosion. For the
validation of results, a geospatial model InVEST using RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss
Equation) has also been set up for the same, which provides a cumulative result of erosion per
year. The monthly values of soil erosion were evaluated through the SWAT model, which was
calibrated for a 10-year duration (1983-93) and validated for a 4-year duration (1993 to 1997).
A good replica of the hydrograph was achieved with a coefficient of determination (R ) value 2
of 0.86. The RUSLE model was used to calibrate the sediment flow in SWAT for a 5-year
period of the (1993 to 1997) with a R2 value of 0.76. It has been found that agricultural areas
and barren land were more prominent to soil loss than other land use classes. For the simulation
of years 2000- 2014, it was found that 2012 and 2013 had extreme soil erosion of more than
250 t/ha/ year. While for the rest of the years, the average soil erosion was estimated to be
somewhere in the range of 50 t/ha/year. Classification of soil erosion has also been done zone-
wise with the help of InVEST model outputs which can serve as a valuable reference for
watershed management.
Keywords: SWAT, RUSLE, Soil Erosion, Sediment Transport, Zoning
Page 1
1. Introduction
Constantly depleting soil layers induced by various erosion agents (water, glacial, wind, plant,
and humans) is a major land degradation issue worldwide which has been reported by various
researchers in recent decades. Increasing soil erosion has been found affecting the water quality
and reservoir management across the globe (Walling and Collins, 2008). It also impacts the
agricultural attributes with the removal of top soil layer which majorly contributes the nutrients
to plant growth. The soil erosion is majorly derived with the physiographic factors including
the catchment characteristics such as topography, climate, land use and land management
practices (Allan, 2004; Gergel et al. 2002). Anthropogenic factors such as land encroachment
and human activities can contribute directly or indirectly to the land degradation at a catchment
scale. (Alitane et al. 2022). It is noted that Increasing rainfall and temperature with the changing
climate can trigger soil erosion in near future significantly which will have severe effects on
soil and water resources ecosystem worldwide (Chuenchum et al. 2019). In Indian context
water induced erosion has been found to be dominant with 55 % of total land degradation.
Since, the northern Himalayan region (J&K) consists of more barren land and riverine sand, it
is even more exposed to the water induced erosion making it more suitable to be studied
thoroughly (NRSC 2016).
Earlier the assessment of eroded areas was used to be done on the field level measurements
which was much challenging and time consuming for a larger area (Abdelwahab et al. 2018).
This limitation has been overcome with different modeling approaches which were developed
to quantify the soil erosion with inclusion of empirical, conceptual and physics-based (Shen et
al., 2009). Since, the model's background, the necessary data, the equations used to define the
processes, and the outcomes delivered all affect how well the model performs, no best model
for erosion mapping risk exists (Abdelwahab et al., 2018). These models, however, confront
two significant obstacles. First, significant data and knowledge are needed for parameter
selection, calibration, and model testing (Hall et al., 2014). Second, there are still a lot of
unknowns in the field of sediment transport science (De Vente & Poesen, 2005; Morgan et al.,
1998). Particularly, the prediction of point sources of sediment and the deposition of sediment
overland or in streams are important areas of research (Maetens et al., 2012). Majority of the
methods compute gully erosion, which is a major type of water induced soil erosion based on
interrelations of available conditioning factors (Verstraeten et al., 2007). Out of which a
number of literatures have used the RUSEL equation and SWAT model with successful
contributions (Gómez-Gutiérrez et al., 2015; Liu & Fu, 2016). Rawat et. al. 2022 has simulated
RUSLE for Tawi catchment thoroughly and found the RUSLE outputs to be under predicted
in the years of excess sediment yield. They have adopted transport capacity methodology for
the calculation of sediment yield, which underperformed in the northern Himalayan region.
Other hydrologic studies in the catchment were mostly done for the streamflow assessment
under different climate change scenarios and land use land cover change using SWAT
(Suryawanshi et al., 2021; Zi et al., 2016). The Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation
(MUSLE) serves as the foundation for the SWAT model's estimation of soil loss (Chawanda
et al., 2020). A set of tools called InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services
and Tradeoffs) aims to measure and map a variety of ecosystem services, such as the provision
Page 2
of water, pollination, and habitat quality which primarily is an extension to existing RUSLE
equation with some modifications. The sediment retention models used by InVEST are
physics-based and use spatially explicit environmental data as inputs, for instance, the model
first calculates the delivery and retention of sediment over the landscape; after that, the service
can be valued in terms of preventing reservoir sedimentation, stream health degradation,
preventing water treatment, etc. (Bhattarai & Dutta, 2007). More specifically, the hydrologic
routing in the previous iteration of the model mandated that sediment retention was exclusively
provided by the riparian zone, regardless of the topography, and as a result, the retention service
was probably overestimated. The more realistic idea of hydrologic connectedness, one of the
most promising methods for describing sediment transfer across many scales, is the foundation
of the new model theory (Altdorff et al., 2013). Although InVEST is a new soil erosion
modeling approach based on sediment delivery ratio which produces significantly good results
(Borselli et al., 2008), it can be combined with the SWAT model to predict soil erosion more
accurately.
To the best of the authors knowledge, no prior research has been done to examine how these
two methodologies might be combined in this research field. The use of the benefits of these
two models is, in fact, what makes this paper novel. In this study we aim to quantify sediment
transported into river stream (Tawi) from the catchment and to identify the zones of severe soil
erosion. We hope that our research will help researchers better understand how soils degrade
in this study region and serve as a useful resource for decision-making.
2.1.1 Tawi River basin
Tawi River, flowing through the J&K region, is a major tributary of the Chenab River, drains
a catchment of 2160 km area and enters Pakistan to its confluence with Chenab. The 160 km
2
long river traverses through high-altitude mountains, adjoining many tributaries within, and
reaches the downhills at Jammu city with a minimal slope (Rawat et al., 2022; Singh et al.,
2021) . This catchment majorly consists of Loamy soil, which is more prone to erosion due to
its instability. The Catchment also receives an average annual rainfall of (900-1400mm) with
most of its share in monsoonal rain triggering water induced erosion. The Udhampur region in
the catchment receives the maximum rainfall of an average value of more than 1900 mm in a
year, which induces more soil erosion in the region, out of which most of its percentage reaches
the river. This river also shows a high socio-economic impact on the region as it serves almost
20 % of its population for drinking, agricultural and industrial purposes. However, change in
land use pattern, deforestation, low growth of vegetation, and construction of new roads and
bridges has accelerated the already existing severe problem of erosion in the catchment. Figure
-1 shows a brief overview of catchment, which consists of Soil classification, stream network
and topography of the river basin.
Page 3
The SWAT model considers many input features for the necessary hydrologic process, such as
topography, land use, soil classification, and slope. Additionally, meteorological data
comprising precipitation, temperature (maximum and minimum), wind speed, solar radiation,
and relative humidity is also required. Here, the digital elevation model (DEM) has been
considered from SRTM (shuttle radar topography mission) at 30 m spatial resolution. A land
cover Map has been extracted from ESA (European Space Agency) for the year 2020 at 10 m
spatial resolution. The source for the soil classification map was the global dataset provided by
the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) at 0.25 km resolution. The meteorological data
has been prepared by merging IMD and CFSR data provided by Texas A&M University
(TAMU) to incorporate wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity. The data was
Page 4
regarded at 0.1 resolution and prepared for 20 grid points falling in the catchment. The
0
precipitation and temperature from IMD data were merged with solar, wind, and relative
humidity data of TAMU for the years 1979-2014. The same was used for the simulations of
the model. Since it is a data-scare region, a monthly discharge hydrograph has been
reconstructed with NIH report 2016 for calibration and validation of the model. Soil texture
raster for InVEST has been used from a dataset prepared by Soil texture classes (USDA system)
for 6 standard soil depths (0, 10, 30, 60, 100 and 200 cm) at 250 m. Derived from predicted
soil texture fractions using the soil texture package in R.
Table 1 Input data and its source

Spatial
S.no Data Type Source
Resolution
Digital elevation mode SRTM (shuttle radar
1 Raster 30m
(DEM) topography mission)
Land use and land cover ESA (European Space
2 Raster 10m
map (2020) Agency)
FAO (food and agriculture
3 Soil map Vector 0.25km
organization)
IMD (India Metrological
4 Metrological data Text 10.1 km
department)
CHIRPS (Climate Hazards
Group InfraRed
6 Precipitation data Raster 30m
Precipitation with Station
Data)
Soil texture classes (USDA
7 Soil texture classes Raster 250m
system)
2.2 Methodology
2.2.1 SWAT Setup

SWAT is a continuous time, semi distributed and process based deterministic River runoff
model, which can be used robustly to predict the impact of management on water, sediment
and other basin parameters. The primary method by which the program operates is to first
calculate the fluxes for each hydrologic response unit (HRU), which is a special combination
of topography, land use, and soil cover. Next, the results are aggregated into sub-basin outputs
based on the percentage of HRUs, and the sub-basin outputs are then routed through a river
reach within the channel network (De Vente & Poesen, 2005; Douglas-Mankin et al., 2010;
Neitsch et al., 2005). SWAT model simulates the hydrological process with input parameters
like DEM and slope, land cover, soil classification and meteorological data. The basin
boundary has been delineated from HydroSHEDS and then with the help of 30-m DEM (Digital
Elevation Model) stream network has been generated for the drainage threshold of 50 km2.
With addition of a desired outlet at the Jammu location the watershed is divided into 20 sub-
watersheds, further divided into 357 hydraulic response units (HRUs). The SWAT uses a water
balance equation to derive the hydrological processes which impact plant growth and sediment
Page 5
transport (Arnold et al., 2012). The hydrologic components of the model are based on the
following water balance equation (Arnold et al., 1998):
SWt =SWo + ∑ti=1 (R day -Qsurf -Ea -Wseep -Qgw ) (1)
Where, SWt is the soil water content at time t; SWo is initial soil water content; t = time (in
days); R day is the amount of precipitation on day; Qsurf is the amount of surface runoff on day;
Ea is the amount of evapotranspiration on day; Wseep is the water percolation to the bottom of
the soil profile on day; Qgw is the amount of water returning to the ground water on day.
SWAT takes into account spatial and temporal variation based on several potential physical
variables, it can be a useful tool in estimating sediment yield based on the total sediments
produced by overland flow, gully, and stream channel erosion, especially at the
watershed scale. Additionally, this model helps us to improve comprehension of processes
involving sediment transport and deposition by overland flow which enables accuracy in
prediction. The capacity of runoff to convey sediment is the primary determinant of overall
sediment output (Mutchler et al., 1988). According to (Neitsch, 2005), deterioration and
aggradation are factors in sediment transport in the channel network. The present model uses
the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) to estimate sediment yield for each HRU
and routes the maximum quantity of sediment in a reach as a function of the peak channel
velocity (Williams, 1975):
0.56
Qsed =11.8× (Vφ ×Qp ×area(HRU)) × K × L × S × C × P × CRFG (2)
Where, Qsed is the sediment yield (ton per day); Vφ is the stream flow volume (m³); Qp is the
peak flow (m³/s); L and S are topographic factors influenced with slope, length and steepness;
K is soil erodibility in (Mg ha h ha−1); C and P factors are land use management and supporting
management factors that describe land use; CRFG is the coarse fragment factor.
2.2.2 Setup of InVEST Model

The SDR (sediment retention ratio) module in invest model computes the sediment reaching to
stream on the basis of RUSLE equation, which is function of rainfall intensity, climate,
topography and soil texture. The average amount of soil loss computation is governed by the
flowing equation-
usle = R × K × LS × C × P (3)
Where, R represents rainfall erosivity (MJ.mm(ha.hr)-1), K represents soil erodibility

(ton/ha/hr), LS is used for slope-length gradient factor, C is used for cover management factor
and P represents support practice factor (Renard et al. 1997).
These factors were computed with different set of equations suggested by InVEST module. For
example, R factor was computed with the help of equation suggested by Rambabu, 1981 for
all over India. K factor was computed by William’s equation (2000). The LS factor was
computed from the topo map of the catchment and similarly C and P factors were prepared by
land use and land cover map where cover value and practice for each attribute given by USDA:
RUSLE handbook (Renard, 1997).
Page 6
2.2.3 Sediment delivery Yield

Sediment delivery ratio is factor which is determined by the slope of the region which gives
the value of sediment transport form each pixel to another pixel down the slope keeping the
biophysical factor as the constraint for the sediment to transport into the stream.
sed export i = USLEi × SDR i (4)
Where, sed export i is the amount of soil transported to ith pixel from (i-1)th pixel (ton/ha/hr),
USLEi is the value erosion for each pixel given by usle equation (ton/ha/hr) and SDR i is
computed to be 0.8 for the given Topography as suggested by the (Vigiak et al., 2012).
SDR model also allow to see the pattern of erosion for the watershed which is used to determine
the erosion from the sub watershed, enabling a visual parameter for zoning of soil erosion in
the region.

3.1 Calibration and validation
The model was calibrated and validated with the help of SWAT-CUP using monthly averaged
streamflow record at Jammu gauging station (NIH report 2016). The sufi-2 approach was found
more suitable with the availability of data. Out of total observation 70% of the data i.e., year
1983-1992 was used for calibration and the rest 30% i.e., year 1993-1997 was treated as
validation period. To evaluate the performance of simulations four goodness of fit indices i.e.,
Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2) percent bias (PBIAS) and
the ratio of the root mean square error between simulated and observed stream flows to the
standard deviation of the observations (RSR) were used (Abbaspour et al., 2007; Arnold et al.,
2012).
Figure shows the monthly level calibration and validation of the streamflow for a period of 15
years, having a R2 value of 0.86, NSE 0.72, RSR, 0.43 and PBIAS value of 11.2 signifying a
satisfactory replica of the hydrograph.
Figure 2 calibration and validation of the SWAT streamflow.
Since, the Invest sediment model provides relevant and satisfactory results for ecosystems even
without calibration, the model was not calibrated (Hamel et al., 2015). In this study, the invest
model has been setup for a five-month period (Monsoon period) for year 1993 - 1997 and those
results were further used to calibrate the SWAT model for Sediment flow. The R2 value was
observed to be 0.76 for the comparison suggesting that, the Calibrated SWAT model predicts
the Sediment flow in acceptable range. Figure shows Simulated results for SWAT and InVEST.
Page 7
120
InVEST Simulated x 10000

110 R² = 0.7614
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
SWAT Simulated x 10000
Figure 3 Calibration of the SWAT Sediment yield.
3.2 Annual soil erosion, SWAT
According to the longer duration SWAT simulations, for a time period of 1981-2014 on annual
time step for sediment flow was computed. Figure 4 shows simulated and observed annual
sediment yield with average annual rainfall for a period of year 1981-1994. The model was
found to be more appropriate for prediction of lower sediment loading, while the extreme
erosion years were observed under predicted similar to the results of Rawat et al. 2022. Since
the rainfall and land cover practices are the main factors influencing soil erosion, and for the
current model only rainfall was varied.
3000 100
600
Sediment Yield (1000 tons)
2500
1100
1600
Rainfall (mm)
2000
2100
1500 2600
3100
1000
3600
500 4100
4600
0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Year Observed Yield Simulated Yield Rainfall
Figure 4 Long term comparison of SWAT annual sediment yield.
A comparison has been drawn to account that, major annual rainfall has induced more sediment
flow into the stream in year 1988 and 1994. As the previous literature suggests, Soil erosion
Page 8
monitoring is highly affected with the land use land cover patterns and Soil Classes in the River
Basin which were available at a coarser resolution in the present study may be a reason for the
inadequacy of model prediction for High sediment Yield scenarios.
3.3 Zoning and detailed analysis of the river basin
As the first order of soil erosion assessment can be done by the InVEST model (Hamel et al.,
2015), Even the catchment which is data scares can be analyzed using this model. The detailed
output of InVEST model is shown in the Figure (5). Where, figure 5(a) shows the gross soil
erosion from each pixel which has mean value of 101.23 ton/ha/month with range between 0
to 26902.1 ton/ha/month that shows that soil erosion for the whole catchment. figure 5(b) and
5(c) showing sediment deposition and sediment yield, respectively which represent the
deposition of soil and the flow of soil into the stream which is been result of algorithm in which
the hydrological connection notion, as parameterized by Boselli et al 2008, serves as the
foundation for the InVEST SDR model (2012). In figure 5(d), the zoning of the river subbasin
on the basis of sediment exported to river stream has been shown, which interoperates the
severity of soil erosion in the subbasins. the subbasin were mostly divided into categories of
weak, low, middle, high, strong, and extreme for the sediment erosion (Shen et al., 2009).
Figure 5 a) Gross Soil Erosion, b) Sediment deposition, c) Sediment Yield, d) Soil erosion
Zoning
Page 9
The model predicts soil erosion over the basin and found that, 50.95% of total area is under
severe soil erosion and 31.5 % total area in extreme soil erosion which were the result of
formation of arid zone/barren land in those subbasins. Subbasin number 10, 14, 17 and 18 in
midstream of the basin, were severely affected with the rainfall induced erosion, while the
subbasins situated in the downstream were calculated to be less eroded in the year 2013. Forest
cover Reduces the soil erosion significantly, which can be seen in subbasin 12, as the subbasin
is majorly covered with the green cover, Severity of the soil erosion is less in the basin despite
being in the Midstream, which supports the findings of (Hamel et al., 2015).
6. Conclusions
The present study has been carried out to assess the soil erosion and to identify the erosion
prone area in Tawi River basin, Jammu and Kashmir. Since it is a data scares region, two
different approaches, SWAT which is a continuous time step model, and InVEST, a geospatial
model were ensembled to develop a methodology for accurate prediction and identification of
the soil erosion prone areas. SWAT model has been trained for the stream flow with the R2
value of 0.86, and it was further trained for the sediment flow using InVEST model predicted
sediment yield with the achieved R2 value was 0.76. The SWAT model output were found to
be closer to observed sediment yield for a 10 year long annual prediction for less than 5 lakh
tons of the sediment flow. The zoning of the basin by InVEST model has also provided us with
the spatial reference to identify the subbasin which contribute more for the cumulated soil
erosion at the outlet. More than 80% of the river basin area was found under the soil erosion
for year 2013, out of which 50 % was severe. The formation of barren land in the catchment
triggers the soil erosion as the major land cover class in the severely affected zones was Arid
zones/barren lands. There has been more deposition in the green belt of the catchment can also
be seen in the study, which can motivate afforestation in the barren lands to protect the sediment
getting into stream. This high rate of sediment erosion may cause a severe impact on any
hydraulic structure which might be purposed on the Tawi River Basin. This study can provide
some insights of the sediment delivery patterns in the catchment for decision making for
watershed Management.
.
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of fluvial sediment architecture of subalpine riverine systems using noninvasive

hydrogeophysical methods. Environmental Earth Sciences, 69(2), 633–644.
Arnold, J. G., Moriasi, D. N., Gassman, P. W., Abbaspour, K. C., White, M. J., Srinivasan, R.,
Santhi, C., Harmel, R. D., Van Griensven, A., & Van Liew, M. W. (2012). SWAT: Model
use, calibration, and validation. Transactions of the ASABE, 55(4), 1491–1508.
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., & Williams, J. R. (1998). Large area hydrologic
modeling and assessment part I: model development 1. JAWRA Journal of the American
Water Resources Association, 34(1), 73–89.
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Mapping and assessment of coal mining induced land use changes in the
Damodar River Basin using remote sensing and GIS techniques
Kumari Anjali1 and Renji Remesan2
1
PhD Research Scholar, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology
Kharagpur, India – 721302; Email: kanjali19feb@kgpian.iitkgp.ac.in
2
Assistant Professor, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology
Kharagpur, India – 721302; Email: renji.remesan@swr.iitkgp.ac.in
Abstract
Damodar river basin, a part of the Ganges basin known for its coal deposits, accounting for
46% of the country's coal reserves, has been experiencing rapid land use changes in the last
two decades. Exploration of coal minerals is among the prospective driving factors for
environmental impacts like land use and land cover change. The present study focuses on
mapping these environmental impacts using Remote Sensing and GIS techniques for the past
two decades (2002-2022). We have used Landsat satellite images from Enhanced Thematic
Mapper (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) for spatial and temporal analysis to
investigate the land use changes. The satellite-derived surface indices like Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicating greenness, Normalized Difference Built-up
Index (NDBI) indicating imperviousness, Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)
indicating moisture content, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) were used as indicators of
environmental dynamism. The study area has undergone significant land use changes during
two decades (2002-2022) due to increasing mining activity, industrialization and urbanization.
With increasing area and density of built-up, LST and NDBI were found to increase, while a
respective fall in NDVI and NDWI was observed. The correlation between LST and NDVI is
strongly negative, indicating vegetation can somewhat mitigate the consequences of LST. This
study highlights the distribution pattern of different surface indices and temperature and their
interrelationship. A correlation between an increase in impermeable surface and a decline in
vegetation was found to be LST. For the time period 2002–2022, LST and NDVI showed a
significant negative correlation coefficient of 0.68 for both year, LST and NDBI showed a
strong positive connection of R2 = 0.64 and 0.69 for 2002 & 2022 respectively, and LST and
NDWI showed negative correlation of R2 = 0.64 for both year.
Keywords: NDVI, NDBI, NDWI, LST, Land Use
1. Introduction
Damodar, a rain-fed river that originates close to the Kamarpat Hill on the Chotanagpur
Plateau in the Palamu district of Jharkhand, is shallow, wide, and flashing. It is regarded as the
nation's coking coal centre (Choudhury et. al, 2019). It passes through one of the world's finest
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mining belts before merging with the Hooghly 55 kilometres downstream of Howrah. In the
upper half of the basin, low agricultural productivity makes coal mining and mine-based
industrial activity the main sources of the economy(Mahato et al., 2017). The valley is now
more susceptible to soil erosion and pollution due to mining and industrial activity. The
potential of the coal mines and other mineral reserves in the area had augmented cumulative
development such as industrial, agricultural, and socio-economic development, including
public health and economic wellbeing(Kumar Verma, 2014). Continuous coal mining alters
regional land use dramatically and has a big impact on how sustainably cities that rely on coal
resources develop.
For tracking the temperature of various land use and cover surfaces, LST data is helpful. LST
changes as a result of the significant variability of land use/ land cover (LULC) surfaces,
including vegetation, surface roughness, topography, and soil swiftly in both space and
time(Rajan et al., 2022). LST can be used to monitor changes in land use and land cover,
including urbanisation, desertification, and other phenomena. It is sensitive to vegetation and
soil moisture(M. S. Malik & Shukla, 2018).
The temperature at the point where the Earth's surface and atmosphere meet is known as Land
Surface Temperature (LST) (Wang et. al, 2021). It is a crucial factor in all physical processes
involving the balance of water and surface energy on a local and global scale. LST is important
for controlling the exchange of sensible and latent heat fluxes, in addition to its influence on
climate, on land surface processes (Das et. al,2021; Guha et. al, 2021). Evapotranspiration,
climate change, the hydrological cycle, vegetation monitoring, urban climate, and
environmental studies are just a few of the numerous domains where LST is widely used (Cao
et. al, 2020). Due to changes in land use and land cover, as well as their impact on the region's
weather, spatial and temporal shifts led to LST Change.
Understanding the land surface temperature and how it relates to different LULC indicators
with Landsat images is quite helpful (Chatterjee et. al, 2017). In recent years, several surface
indices, like as NDVI, NDWI, and NDBI, have been utilised extensively in LST-related studies
to analyse their impact on changing land use covers(S. Malik et al., 2020). The land cover
change due to mining & industrial activities has risen to accommodate the rapidly expanding
metropolitan population, with the result that the land surface temperature has gone up(Sharma
et al., 2013).
The following goals have been established for this study: 1. To evaluate the LST change during
the past 20 years. 2. To examine the nature of surface water formations, vegetation cover
transformation through different surface indices like NDVI, NDWI, and NDBI. 3. The reader
will learn the relationship between LST and several surface indices like NDVI, NDBI, and
NDWI from Landsat imageries.
This section details the study area, satellite data and method deriving surface indices &
surface temperature, used for the present analysis.
Page | 2
2.1. Study area

The study area lying in the Damodar basin is a coal-rich area in the state of Jharkhand
(Fig. 1). The study area in the Chotanagpur Plateau lies between 22º30’N to 24º30’N latitude
and 84º30’E to 86º00’E longitude.The land use land cover has been severely modified in this
region by the rapid urbanisation of the Asansol-Durgapur Industrial Belt and the coalfield area.
Figure 1 Geographical location of the study area
Following figure 2 highlights the patches of coal mine areas of the coalfield area of North &
South Karanpura, East & West Bokaro, and Ramgarh over the Digital Elevation Model map,
which is a representation of the surface of terrain.
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Figure 2 DEM map of study area highlighting patches of coal mines
2.2. Satellite Imagery Datasets

For the current analysis, two sets of Geotiff-format Landsat imagery data for the years
2002 and 2022 are obtained. Table 1 describes the specifics of the Landsat image. Low cloud
cover remote sensing data were taken from the public domain at https://earth
explorer.usgs.gov/. Images from Google Earth were taken into consideration for reference and
confirmation. Geometric correction and UTM registration were applied to the imagery.
Table 1. Details of the satellite images.

Month & Year Satellite Row-Path Sensor Spatial Resolution
(meters)
April 2002 Landsat 7 141-044/43 & ETM+ 30
140-044/43
April 2022 Landsat 8 141-044/43 & OLI & TIRS 30
140-044/43
ETM + : Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus; OLI: Operational Land Imager; TIRS:
Thermal Infrared Sensor
2.3. Satellite-derived Surface indices

To track changes in the urban cover, green cover, and water over the time period, several
indices are evaluated (2002-2022). By using the most applicable satellite-derived indices,
including the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference
Page | 4
Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Water Index, this is done with Landsat
7 for the year 2002 and Landsat 8 for the year 2022. (NDWI). Equations are used to present
the formula for each of the indices, which are calculated using the multispectral bands of
Landsat sensors.
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used to determine the vegetation
density with its Eq. (1).
𝑁𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 − 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼 =
𝑁𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 + 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑
The Normalized Difference Built Index (NDBI) is done using NIR and SWIR bands to enhance
the built-up areas and its Eq. (2).
𝑆𝑊𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 − 𝑁𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝑁𝐷𝐵𝐼 =
𝑆𝑊𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 + 𝑁𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑
The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) is used to monitor changes in water content
of leaves, using near-infrared (NIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) wavelengths, proposed
by Gao in 1996,
𝑁𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 − 𝑆𝑊𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑

𝑁𝐷𝐵𝐼 =
𝑁𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑 + 𝑆𝑊𝐼𝑅 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑑
2.4. LST Mapping

The LST is the land surface temperature (measured in the direction of the remote sensor) as
determined by its radiative skin temperature. Albedo, vegetation cover, and soil moisture are
other factors that affect its assessment (Verma & Garg, 2021; Anbazhagan,2016). LST was
extracted from Landsat pictures in our study in order to estimate the change in the LST
distribution over the course of 20 years (Fig. 3). In order to correlate changes in the INDICES
pattern with changes in the LST distribution pattern, Landsat pictures from the same month
and year were picked for which the Surface Indices Map was generated. The Landsat 7 and
Landsat 8 satellites are used to create the LST for the years 2002 and 2022, respectively.
Page | 5
Figure 3 LST Estimation steps
3.1.Spatial distribution pattern of Surface indices

The changing pattern of the environmental quality of an area is determined by computing the
satellite-derived indices. Several studies have used these parameters to quantify the
environmental conditions of an area. The study computes diverse indices like NDVI, NDBI,
and NDWI. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) signifies the greenness of a
region and positive values remark healthy vegetation. On the other hand, the Normalized
Difference Water Index (NDWI) indicates the amount of wetness present in the area which is
an important indicator for a healthy environment. Normalized Difference BuiltUp Index
(NDBI) signifies imperviousness.
The maximum and minimum values of the different surface indices is mentioned in table 2
below. From the below table, it is clear that the land surface temperature has gone considerably
high in past two decades. The maximum values of the surface indices have also changed in the
time duration. The considerable reason for this change is the change in land use cover which is
highly influenced by the mining activities in our study region.
Table 2. Statistics of the surface indices.

Year LST (Celsius) NDVI NDBI NDWI
Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum
April, 19.18 38.06 -0.27 0.64 -0.46 0.32 -0.31 0.46
2002
April, 22.25 41.86 -0.23 0.73 -0.67 0.48 -0.47 0.65
2022
Page | 6
Fig. 4 presents the spatial as well as the temporal status of NDVI for 2002 and 2022. The NDVI
values are grouped into four classes, as Class 1 (<0) indicates water surfaces, Class 2 (0-0.2)
includes the barren land, cultivable lands, Class 3 (0.2-0.5) includes sparse vegetation such as
shrubland, grassland and Class 4 (>0.5) includes dense vegetation such as forest(Neog, 2022).
From figure 4 & table 3 it is clear that, class 2 has experienced a major rise of approximately
12 % in the past two decades. Since, the mining, industrial, urban areas is included in the class
2. From figure 2, spatially, it is clear that the mine areas in the study region comes under class
2. We can say that, this rise in the area under class 2 NDVI range is due to the land cover
change of mining activities & urbanization.
Figure 4 NDVI distribution map for year 2002 and 2022
Table 3. Area statistics under NDVI classes.

YEAR 2002 YEAR 2022
CLASSES NDVI
VALUES
AREA (km2) Percentage AREA (km2) Percentage
RANGE
(%) (%)
1 <0 613.467 0.91 705.41 1.05
2 0-0.2 27128.83 40.38 35163.17 52.33
3 0.2-0.5 37192.84 55.36 29163.79 43.40
4 >0.5 2247.07 3.34 2149.83 3.20
Fig. 5 presents the spatial as well as the temporal status of NDBI for 2002 and 2022. The NDBI
values are grouped into two classes, as Class 1 (<0) indicates non-pervious, Class 2 (>0)
includes the pervious land area. From figure 5 & table 4 it is clear that, the pervious has
experienced a major rise in the past two decades. The mining and urban areas decreases the
perviousness, hence, a rise in these sector attributes to the rise in class 2 (>0).
Page | 7
Figure 5 NDBI distribution map for year 2002 and 2022
Table 4. Area statistics under NDBI classes.

YEAR 2002 YEAR 2022
CLASSES NDBI
VALUES
RANGE
(%) (%)
1 <0 34487.41 51.34 27094.34 40.32
2 >0 32695.18 48.66 40087.85 59.67
Fig. 6 presents the spatial as well as the temporal status of NDWI for 2002 and 2022. The
NDWI values are grouped into three classes, as Class 1 (<-0.1) indicates dry surfaces, Class 2
(-0.1 – 0.1) includes the moist surfaces, and Class 3 (>0.1). From figure 6 & table 5 it is clear
that, the Class 2 has experienced a major loss in the past two decades and class 1 has increased
considerably.
Figure 6 NDWI distribution map for year 2002 and 2022
Page | 8
Table 5. Area statistics under NDWI classes.

YEAR 2002 YEAR 2022
CLASSES NDBI
VALUES
RANGE
(%) (%)
1 <-0.1 644.952 0.96 772.59 1.15
2 -0.1 – 0.1 38092.53 56.7 30433.71 45.3
3 >0.1 27096.96 40.34 35942.62 53.55
3.2.Spatial distribution pattern of LST

In Fig. 7, the satellite-derived LST distribution for the years 2002 and 2022 is displayed. It
can be seen from the temperature distribution that the low LST is seen in areas with a lot of
vegetation. The coal mining region patches illustrated in figure 2 are located close, and Fig. 7
clearly shows that there has been a rise in the LST over the previous 20 years, indicating a
warming of the area. As shown in Fig. 7, the minimum temperature increased from 19.18 °C
in 2002 to 22.35 °C, and the maximum temperature fluctuated between 38.06 °C and 41.86 °C.
Figure 7 LST distribution map for year 2002 and 2022
3.3.Relationship between LST and indices
The study developed the association between surface indices and LST and discovered
relationship between them. The maximum surface temperature in built-up regions was shown
by NDBI results. Therefore, it has been expected that urbanization or mining activities will
cause significant changes in surface temperature. In NDBI & LST correlation a strong positive
relationship has been existed in each with R2 = 0.6402 and R2 =0.6951 for year 2002 & 2022
respectively as shown in figure 8 and 9. The positive relationship found between NDBI and
Page | 9
LST indicates that built-up area & mining activities is generating much surface temperature
variations and is the key contributor. On the other hand, healthy vegetative cover plays a key
role in lowering of the surface temperature.
Due to the NDVI's high sensitivity to change, alterations in the NDVI could affect the land
surface temperature. Finding the association between LST and NDVI by correlation analysis
revealed a substantial negative correlation, with R2 = 0.6809 and R2 =0.684 for year 2002 &
2022 respectively as shown in figure 8 and 9. According to our observations, built-up and bare
surfaces in the mining region had high surface temperatures, whereas green, vegetated regions
had low surface temperatures.
A significant negative link between LST and NDWI was discovered by doing a correlation
study, as shown in figure 8 and 9, with R2 = 0.6402 and R2 =0.66 for year 2002 & 2022
respectively.
Figure 8 Relationship of surface indices with LST for year 2002
Figure 9 Relationship of surface indices with LST for year 2022
Page | 10
4. Conclusions
Based on satellite-derived LST, NDVI, NDBI and NDWI data, this study examined the
connection between land use and climate change. For the years 2002 through 2022, the three
indicators were examined. According to the index-based land-use analysis, the core and
surrounding areas of the coal fields area of North & South Karanpura, East & West Bokaro,
and Ramgarh, have seen fast urbanization. The east region has LST that is greater than in prior
years and a correlation value between NDVI-LST, NDBI-LST, and NDWI-LST is
approximately 0.68, 0.65 and 0.64 respectively. This validates the link between LST and land
usage. This demonstrates how the increase in impervious surface area and the loss of vegetation
both contribute to climate change with the rise in land surface temperature.
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Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of meteorological drought time

series over two homogeneous rainfall regions of India with distinct climatic
conditions.
Akshay Bajirao Pachore 1, Renji Remesan 2
1
PhD Research Scholar, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology,
Kharagpur, India – 721302; Email: abpachore@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur,
India – 721302; E-mail: renji.remesan@swr.iitkgp.ac.in
Abstract
The present study investigates the multifractality in the SPI (Standardized precipitation index)
time series calculated from the monthly rainfall data for the northwest and northeast regions of
India. SPI time series is prepared at different timesteps which are 3,6, and 12 months (1872 to
2016; 145 years), and the multifractality in the time series is studied using MF-DFA
(Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis) technique. Results showed that generalized Hurst
exponents (Hq) for all the SPI time series in both regions show non-linear dependence on q-
order values, which confirms the presence of multifractality. Based on Hurst exponent values,
it can be noted that SPI-6, 12 for the northwest region, and SPI-12 for the northeast region
show long-term persistence. SPI-3 of the northwest region and SPI-3,6 of the northeast region
shows the presence of short-term persistence in the time series. A higher degree of
multifractality is reported in the northwest region for all the SPI time series as compared to the
northeast region. Our data shows that as the SPI timeframe gets longer, multifractality is
stronger. This study is useful to analyze the variation of multifractality in SPI-based
meteorological drought time series for two climatically different rainfall regions. This analysis
is useful in the sense that it is highlighting the effect of regional climate and aggregation time
scale on the presence and degree of multifractality in the time series.
Keywords: MF-DFA, SPI, generalized Hurst exponent, degree of multifractality.
1. Introduction
India experienced the worst droughts in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century which
caused huge damage to the economy, agricultural production, and life in the region (Mishra et
al., 2019). Meteorological droughts in India are more related to monsoon failure and have a
major role in the further propagation to agricultural and hydrological drought occurrences
(Rajbanshi and Das, 2021). India has also witnessed concurrent extreme events such as
meteorological droughts and heat waves. The impact of meteorological drought increases when
it co-occurred with heat waves (Sharma and Mujumdar, 2017).
Till this point, several drought indices have been formulated by researchers to describe a lack
of rainfall. Some of the most well-known drought indicators are the PDSI (Palmer Drought
Severity Index) (Palmer, 1965), Deciles (Gibbs and Maher, 1967), Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) (Mckee et. al, 1994), and Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) (Rooy, 1965). The WMO
also advises using the standardized precipitation index, which is the most used indicator for
quantifying meteorological drought (world meteorological organization). SPI is the most often
used meteorological drought index since it is straightforward to compute and can be done on a
Page 1
variety of periods (Svoboda et. al, 2012). Drought conditions in diverse water resources can be
quantified by the different timescales of the SPI. SPI at a shorter timescale (3 months) can
better reflect the soil moisture conditions, whereas streamflow drought can be represented by
longer timescales such as 6 months, and SPI at 12-24 months can better represent the
groundwater drought condition (Svoboda et. al, 2012; Thomas et. al, 2015).
Mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot (1982) originally used the term "fractal" in 1975. The Latin
adverb "fractus," which means "broken" or "fractured," served as Mandelbrot's inspiration.
Systems that are essentially irregular at all sizes are formally described by the fractal geometry.
When a little section of a fractal structure is amplified, it exhibits the same level of complexity
as the complete structure. Monofractals and multifractals are the two subcategories of fractals.
Monofractals are ones in which the scaling characteristics are constant throughout the system.
Many fractals that appear in nature have a scaling relation that is far more complicated than
basic fractals, necessitating the use of a set of parameters to characterize these multifractal
objects. Many natural variables exhibit multifractal properties that cannot be explained by the
single scaling exponent (Kantelhardt et al., 2002).
For the examination of DNA sequences, Peng et al. (1994) introduced a novel technique called
detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). DFA struggles to fully explain multi-scale and fractal
subsets of time series data and is better suited to identifying monofractal scaling patterns.
Kantelhardt et al. (2002) created a technique called multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis,
which is an extension of DFA, to identify the multifractal behaviour of data (MF-DFA).
Numerous studies used the MF-DFA approach to examine how various non-stationary
hydrological time series data (precipitation, streamflow) adapt to multifractal scaling
(Kantelhardt et al.,2002; Li et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2016).
Zhang et al. (2008) applied the MF-DFA to study the multifractality in the streamflow time
series of the Yangtze River basin of China. The author reported the non-stationarity in the
streamflow time series. The study showed that the streamflow time series in the upper, middle,
and lower Yangtze rivers show different persistence (long and short-term memory). Adarsh et
al. (2019), studied the multifractality in the meteorological drought time series, i.e., SPI time
series at multiple time scales (SPI-3,6, and 12 months) by applying the MF-DFA method. This
study reported how Hurst’s exponent and degree of multifractality vary for different regions
and different timescales. Hou et al. (2018) looked at the multifractal features of time series
from drought areas in seven distinct parts of China and discovered multifractality in each and
every one of the seven.
The present study focuses on analyzing the multifractality in the SPI-based meteorological
drought time series for two different rainfall regions namely the northwest and northeast region
of India. Multiple timeframes, i.e., 3, 6, and 12 months, were used to calculate the SPI time
series. The following are specific goals for this research study: (1) to analyze the presence of
multifractality in the SPI time series using the MF-DFA method; (2) to study the variation of
the strength and degree of multifractality among two climatically different rainfall regions and
different SPI timescales.
Page 2
2.1 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
A standardized precipitation index was first proposed by Mckee et. al (1994) for the
characterization of meteorological drought based on precipitation as a single input variable.
Along with dry conditions, SPI is also suitable to characterize the wet conditions as it is
calculated using the normalized values of the precipitation. SPI has become popular in the
drought modeling study as it is easy to calculate and has the flexibility to calculate on multiple
timescales (Mishra and Singh, 2010). In the present study, we have calculated the SPI 3-, 6-,
and 12-months to analyze the different types of water scarcity due to less rainfall for the
particular aggregation timescale.
The detailed procedure to calculate the SPI is given below:

1. Preparation of k-month moving average time series of precipitation data, where k is the
different timescales e.g., 3,6, and 12 months.
2. Gamma distribution fitting to k-month moving average precipitation data time series.
3. To overcome the disadvantage of gamma distribution functions of not considering the zero
values, the cumulative distribution function is defined.
4. Inverse of the standard normal cumulative distribution is calculated to get the SPI values.
2.2 Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA)
MF-DFA (Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis) is generally used to measure the

multifractality of the nonstationary time series. Also, the effect of different segment sizes
(scale) can be studied using MF-DFA. This method calculates the Hurst exponent which is
useful to find the presence of long-range memory in the time series (Kantelhardt et al., 2002;
Hou et al., 2018; Adarsh et al., 2019).
The following are detailed steps for examining the multifractality of the SPI time series:
(1) Cumulative deviation of different SPI time series data with multiple timescales (3, 6,
12 months) is calculated as given below:
𝑌(𝑖) = ∑𝑖𝑘=1[𝑥𝑘 − 𝑥̅ ] (1)
Where, 𝑥̅ is the mean value of the time series, k = 1, 2, 3, 4, …. N (N is the length of

the time series, 𝑥𝑘 ).
(2) The new data series Y(i) is further divided into nonoverlapping segments having length
Ns, where Ns = int(N/s) and s is known as scale or segment size. The same procedure is
performed starting from the end of the series and continuing until 2Ns segments are
acquired in order to preserve this component of the series because the size of the
sequence is not always an integral multiple of s.
(3) The polynomial of the vth interval is fitted using a least-squares fit of the data for each
interval v (v = 1, 2, 3,......2Ns), and is derived by,
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𝑚
𝑦̂
𝑣 (i) = 𝑎
̂0 + 𝑎
̂𝑖
1 +……+ 𝑎
̂ 𝑚𝑖 (2)
i = 1,2,…..,s; m = 1,2,…..
The detrended time series is denoted by the Ys(i), giving the variation between original
and fitted values:
Ys(i) = Y(i) - 𝑦̂
𝑣 (i) (3)
𝑦̂
𝑣 (i) is called as m order MF-DFA, where m is various orders of the fitting. m order
MF-DFA is the detrended time series with mth order trends removed.
(4) By fitting the series with least-squares, determine the local trend for each of the 2Ns
segments. then calculate the variance
1
𝐹 2 (𝑠, 𝑣) = ∑𝑠𝑖=1{𝑌[(𝑣 − 1)𝑠 + 𝑖 𝑦̂
𝑣 (i)}
2
(4)
𝑠
For each segment v, v = 1, 2,……,Ns and

1
𝐹 2 (𝑠, 𝑣) = ∑𝑠𝑖=1{𝑌[𝑁 − (𝑣 − 𝑁𝑠 )𝑠 + 𝑖 ] - 𝑦̂
𝑣 (i)}
2
(5)
𝑠
v = Ns, Ns +1, …….., 2Ns
The fitting polynomial in segment v in this case is yv (i). The number of orders in the
polynomial affects how well the trend can be eliminated. When m = 1, the fitting order
is described as a linear trend; when m = 2, it is described as a quadratic trend; and when
m = 3, it is described as a cubic trend.
(5) qth order fluctuation function is calculated by averaging over all the scales using
equation,
1 2𝑁
𝐹𝑞 (s) = {2𝑁 ∑𝑣=1𝑠 [ 𝐹 2 (𝑠, 𝑣)]q/2}1/q (6)
𝑠
Any real value can be used for the qth order fluctuation function. If q is having value
as ‘0’ then the fluctuation function can be calculated by,
1
𝐹𝑞 (s) = exp{ ∑2𝑁𝑠 2
𝑣=1 𝑙𝑛[ 𝐹 (𝑠, 𝑣)]} (7)
4𝑁𝑠
(6) The log-log plots of Fq(s) versus s for each value of q gives the scaling behaviour of
the fluctuation function. For large values of s, Fq(s) rises as the power law if the SPI
timeseries is linked to the long-range power law: Fq(s) ~ sh(q). The generalised hurst
exponent, abbreviated Hq, is the slope of log Fq(s) against log(s).
Array of the scaling exponents can be used to explain the multifractality of the time series
which is further refer to the scaling behavior. The traditional Hurst exponent is equal to 0 <H
Page 4
(q = 2) <1 (Hurst, 1951) for stationary time series (Hurst, 1951). It is possible to represent the
connection between H(2) and H for non-stationary time series using H(q = 2) > 1 and H = H(2)-
1 (Zhang et al., 2008). The Hurst exponent for an uncorrelated series is 0.5. The LTP (long
memory process) is indicated by the Hurst exponent falling between 0.5 and 1, while the short-
term persistence is shown by the exponent falling between 0 and 0.5 (short memory process).
Long term persistence signifies the positive autocorrelation in the data which shows the
presence of long memory in the timeseries. Different important factors while applying the MF-
DFA are, scale and type of polynomial used for fitting. Scale should be chosen in such a way
that it should be within the scale range selected. Minimum scale value chosen should be larger
than the polynomial order, and maximum scale value should be less than the half of the data
length chosen (Adarsh et al; 2019). In present study, polynomial order of 1 is taken for the
linear fitting. One should be careful while selecting the q order, as high negative or positive
values can introduce the error in the tails of the multifractal spectrum (Ihlen., 2012).
2.3.1 Study Area
India has been categorized into six homogeneous rainfall zones by the Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology in Pune: the northwest, west-central, northeast, central northeast, hilly,
and peninsular regions. For this study, we have selected two rainfall regions of India having
different climatic conditions, i.e., northwest region with arid climate and northeast region with
humid climate. Figure 1 shows the geographical location of two rainfall regions in India.
Latitude of the northwest region varies between 19.65 N to 33.17 N and longitude varies from
67.86 E to 79.044 E. Similarly, latitude of the northeast region varies from 20.65 N to 29.124
N, and longitude varies between 85.42 E and 96.12 E. Gujrat, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana
are the states coming under the northwest region, whereas, northeast region comprises of West
Bengal, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, and Mizoram (refer figure
1). Northwest region receives most of the rain by southwest monsoon during the months of
June to September. Whereas, northeast region receives the rain from both southwest monsoon
and northeast monsoon. Most of the areas of the northeast regions receives the minimum
average annual rainfall of 1,200mm whereas, Cherapunji receives the highest rainfall which is
11,000mm (Dikshit and Dikshit, 2014).
2.3.2 Data Collection
Monthly homogeneous rainfall timeseries data is prepared by IITM Pune (Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology, Pune) using the data from 306 uniformly distributed rainguage network.
These rainguages are selected in such a way that there should be atleast one rainguage station
per district with reliable timeseries data. IITM Pune has divided India into six homogeneous
rainfall regions. Area weighted monthly rainfall timeseries is available at
https://www.tropmet.res.in/DataArchival-51-Page from 1871 till 2016. Monthly rainfall data
from 1872 till 2016 (total 145 years) for northwest and northeast regions is downloaded from
the webpage of IITM Pune, India.
Page 5
Figure 1: Map of the study area showing the location of India's two homogenous rainfall
zones: northwest and northeast regions.
3.1. Analysis of Multifractality for Multiscale SPI Time Series:
The most used index for describing meteorological drought is the standardized precipitation
index. Multiple timescales may be used to compute SPI, and these durations represent the water
shortage in the various water sectors. In this work, SPI was estimated using monthly
precipitation data obtained from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology over the 145-year
period between 1872 and 2016 considering timescales of 3, 6, and 12 months. SPI time series
for different aggregation timescales is prepared for both northwest and northeast homogenous
rainfall regions. The aim of this study is to study the multifractal behavior of different SPI
timeseries for multiple timescales and both the rainfall regions. To study this multifractal
behavior, plots of Hq vs q (Generalized Hurst Exponent vs q order), which are known as
generalized hurst exponent plots; tq vs q (mass exponent vs q order), known as mass exponent
plots; and the plots of multifractal spectrum (singularity dimension (Dq) vs singularity
exponent (hq)). For every value of q, fluctuation function (Fq) was calculated, and the slope of
these plots (Hurst exponent) were obtained. Plots of fluctuation function (Fq) vs q order for the
northwest and the northeast region are shown in figure 2. Slopes (Generalized Hurst Exponent)
are different for different values of q as shown on figure 3 (a), this non-linear relationship
between GHE and different values of q signifies the presence of multifractality in the both the
regions for all the three timescales of the SPI (SPI-3,6, and 12).
Page 6
Northwest Region Northeast Region
SPI-3 SPI-3
SPI-6 SPI-6
SPI-12 SPI-12
Figure 2: Plots of the fluctuation function that illustrate the multifractality of the SPI series for the two rainfall
regions (Northwest and Northeast).
Variation of Hurst exponent for q = 2 (classical Hurst exponent) for different SPI timescales
and for two different regions is shown in figure 3 (b). The Hurst exponent for SPI-3, which
indicates the short-term persistence in the time series, is less than 0.5 for both the northwest
and northeast regions. Similar to this, the SPI-6 time series of the northeast area show short-
term persistence. A Hurst exponent value of higher than 0.5 indicates long-term persistence in
the timeseries for SPI 6 and 12 in the northwest area, as well as SPI 12 in the northeast area.
Page 7
a NE_SPI3 NE_SPI6 NE_SPI12 b NW NE

NW_SPI3 NW_SPI6 NW_SPI12 1.2
1.8 1
Generelized Hurst Exponent (Hq)
1.6
Hq (q = 2)
1.4 0.8
1.2
0.6
1
0.8 0.4
0.6
0.4 0.2
0.2
0 0
-5 -3 -1 1 3 5 SPI-3 SPI-6 SPI-12
q
Figure 3: (a) GHE plots of SPI (SPI-3,6, and 12) series, and (b) Variation of classical Hurst exponent at q=2 for
the northwest (NW), and northeast (NE) region.
The plots of mass exponent against q order (figure 4) were prepared to examine the
multifractality in the timeseries. Both northwest and northeast regions, have all the mass
exponents values showing curved (non-linear) dependency on q order, which is the evidence
of multifractality in the SPI time series for both regions. Higher nonlinear nature of dependency
(multifractality) is observed for the northwest region as compare to northeast region. Both
northwest and northeast regions have different climatic conditions, as north west region is more
arid, whereas, north east is having humid climate. Our results highlighted the effect of different
climatic conditions on the multifractality in the respective time series data.
SPI-3 SPI-3
Figure 4: Plot showing the variation of mass exponent of several SPI time series (SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12) with
moment order (tq vs. q) in two rainfall areas (Northwest and Northeast).
Page 8
SPI-6 SPI-6
SPI-12 SPI-12
Figure 4 continued
Further, the multifractal spectrum is used to see the evidence of multifractality in the multiscale
SPI series for both the regions. Figure 5 shows the multifractal spectrum for the northwest and
northeast region for SPI-3-,6-, and 12-month time series. Multifractal spectrum is an inverted
parabolic shape plot of singularity dimension (Dq) against singularity exponent (hq) (Ihlen,
2012). The multifractal spectrum of SPI-12 for the northwest region shows a close to symmetric
nature, showing the persistence of long-term droughts in the region. Long left tails signal shows
that the time series is unresponsive to minor magnitudes of local fluctuations, whereas, the long
right tail indicates that the multifractal structure of the time series is unresponsive to high
magnitudes of local fluctuations (Ihlen, 2012). Here we had calculated the singularity exponent
(hq) with the help of mass exponent (tq). Further, singularity dimension (Dq) is calculated as a
function of singularity exponent (hq) and mass exponent (tq). Higher value of singularity
dimension denotes the higher strength of multifractality. Difference of maximum and minimum
values of singularity exponent (hq) is term as degree of multifractality and it is similar to
singularity dimension (Dq) at D = 0. For northwest region, values of degree of multifractality
(hqmax – hqmin) are 0.4733, 0.5717, and 1.1549 for SPI-3, 6, and 12 respectively. Similarly, for
northeast region, these values are 0.2742, 0.2622, and 0.82305 respectively. Form the above-
mentioned results it is inferred that degree of multifractality is higher for the northwest region
as compare to northeast region. It is also observed that multifractal degree increases for higher
Page 9
SPI timescales for both the regions. Lowest base width of the multifractal spectrum (degree of
multifractality) is for SPI -3 timeseries of the northeast region (0.27423), whereas highest value
of base width is observed for 12-month SPI for the northwest region (1.1549).
SPI-3 SPI-3
SPI-6 SPI-6
SPI-12 SPI-12
Figure 5: Multifractal spectrum of the standardized precipitation index (SPI-3, 6, and 12) series of two rainfall
regions (Northwest and Northeast).
Page 10
3.2. Discussion
India has a total of six homogeneous rainfall regions namely northwest, west-central, north-
east, central northeast, peninsular, and hilly region. In the present study, we have focused our
analysis on two rainfall regions i.e, northwest (arid climate) and northeast (humid climate)
regions having different climatic conditions. We estimated the SPI for this analysis over a range
of periods, including 3, 6, and 12 months. Further, the multifractality in the three different time
series (SPI-3,6, and 12) was studied for both regions using the MF-DFA method. In the
literature, there are very few studies available focusing on the multifractal analysis of drought
time series worldwide. For 30 distinct meteorological sub-divisions of India, Adarsh et al.
(2019) evaluated the multifractality in SPI time series at numerous timeframes and found that
multifractality was present in the majority of the areas and SPI time series. According to the
author's observation, the Hurst exponent and degree of multifractality are found to increase as
the SPI timescale increases. Our results are in alignment with the observations reported by
Adarsh et al. (2019) showing the increase in the degree of multifractality with SPI timescales
for both northwest and northeast region. For multifractal analysis of meteorological drought
time series using MF-DFA, globally there are very few studies are available, among which Hou
et al. (2018) studied the multifractality for seven regions of China for drought area time series
by applying MF-DFA, Zhang et al. (2016) described the drought based on monthly
precipitation using multifractal and wavelet analytics.
To the knowledge of the author, the present study is the unique of its kind, as there is not any
other study focusing on two climatically different homogenous rainfall regions of India for
analyzing the multifractality using MF-DFA method. Based on the degree of multifractality, it
is observed that the multifractality is more prominent in the northwest region which is having
an arid climate as compared to the northeast region with a more humid climate. SPI-12 series
shows the highest degree of multifractality (1.1549) for the northwest region, whereas the
lowest value is observed for SPI-3 (0.2742) for the northeast region. It observed that all the
parameters in MF-DFA varies with the SPI timescale and also shows the difference for two
different rainfall regions.
4. Conclusions
In the current work, we have examined the multifractal characteristics of meteorological

drought time series derived at several timeframes (SPI-3, 6, and 12) for two distinct
homogenous rainfall areas (i.e., northwest and northeast) with various climatic conditions. The
MF-DFA method was employed to study the multifractality in the time series and the particular
conclusions drawn are as follows:
(i) Non-linear dependence of generalized Hurst exponent (Hq) on q order showed the
presence of multifractality in both the rainfall regions (northwest and northeast) for all
SPI timescales (SPI-3,6 and 12).
(ii) Based on the values of degree of multifractality (hqmax – hqmin) it is observed that a higher
degree of multifractality is seen in the northwest region for all SPI timescales as compare
to northeast region.
Page 11
(iii) The Highest degree of multifractality is observed in the SPI-12 time series for the
northwest region.
(iv) Short-term term persistence (Hurst exponent: 0 to 0.5) is observed in the northeast region
for the SPI time series at 3- and 6-months timescales, also for SPI-3 time series of the
northwest region.
(v) Long-term persistence (Hurst exponent: 0.5 to 1) is observed in the northwest region for
SPI-6, and 12 months; also, for SPI-12 time series of the northeast region.
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Propagation dynamics of meteorological drought to agricultural drought

using lag time analysis.
Anjali C.V1., Akshay Pachore2., Renji Remesan3
1
Post graduate student, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute
of Technology, Kharagpur, 721302, India.
2
Research Scholar, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of
Technology, Kharagpur, 721302, India.
3
Assistant Professor, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of
Technology, Kharagpur, 721302, India.
Email: anjalicvijayan5@kgpian.iitkgp.ac.in
Abstract
Climate change and global warming have increased the frequency, intensity, and duration of
drought events across India. The dynamic and complex relationship between meteorological
drought which occurs as a result of a deficit in precipitation and agricultural drought which
occurs as a result of the decline in soil moisture is not well studied in the Indian scenario. In
this study, the lag time analysis and the propagation dynamics between the meteorological and
agricultural drought are done. The agricultural drought dynamics over the Ganges basin during
the time 2001 to 2020 were assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI). MODIS vegetation products (MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day
Global 250m), accessible via Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, were used for the
calculation of the NDVI which was analyzed seasonally for the 20 years. SPI calculated using
the precipitation data from the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) was used for
determining the meteorological drought. The results have shown that the NDVI showed higher
values during the post-monsoon period in comparison to the pre-monsoon season and the lag
time between the meteorological to agricultural drought varied from one to eight months in
different agro-climatic zones of the Ganga River basin. Lag time was analyzed using Pearson’s
correlation coefficient calculated on a seasonal basis for different timescales of SPI and NDVI
at 1 monthly scale, and also with a simple linear regression model, and the results obtained can
be used for predicting agricultural drought. Understanding the type and pattern of drought, their
interrelation, and the lag time between one type of drought to the other will help the
policymakers in the prediction, planning, and preparation for future drought events.
Keywords: Google Earth Engine, drought assessment, vegetation dynamics, lag time,
Pearson’s correlation coefficient.
1. Introduction
Drought is a multifaceted natural phenomenon that has wide impacts on the environment,
society, and the economy. More than any other natural disaster, a drought has an impact on
food security. In response to climate change as well as other anthropogenic activity, the severity
and frequency of drought events have significantly increased in recent years. In the world of
research, little is known about how droughts emerge, propagate, and evolve. Especially in
Page 1
developing nations, but also increasingly in developed ones, droughts are among the greatest
threats to sustainable development. If we want to reduce society's vulnerability to droughts and
the risks they pose, we must be able to identify the different types of droughts, show how they
spread from one type to another, investigate the causes of drought, and comprehend how it
affects different economic sectors and ecosystems (Wang et al., 2016). Therefore, to reduce the
impact of drought, understanding its commencement, occurrence, intensity, duration, impact,
and scope is required. Since drought is a highly complicated phenomenon, it impacts a wide
range of natural and human-made systems, including agriculture, meteorology, hydrology,
geology, and geomorphology. The process of drought accumulation exacerbates the situation
worst.
India is considered one of the most drought-prone nations in the world. 33% of India's
agricultural area is classified as "chronically drought-prone". Droughts can damage up to 68%
of this country's agricultural territory (Kaur et al., 2022). Agriculture is affected by drought
because it reduces vegetative productivity, that can result in widespread crop failure. Numerous
methods and indices have been used to quantify drought analysis. However, rainfall, vegetation
state, groundwater level, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, and the availability of
surface water are some of the most significant drought-causing and responding factors (Mishra
and Singh, 2010). Additionally, drought indices produced from data captured remotely are
more useful for tracking the spatial and temporal pattern of agricultural droughts than site-
based drought indices. Due to their high spatiotemporal resolution, drought indices generated
from time series of remotely sensed data are particularly effective at monitoring and assessing
drought severity in regions with few gauge stations (AghaKouchak et al., 2015). There are four
general categories for drought: 1) meteorological drought, wherein an area receives less
precipitation than 25% of what is typical for that period; 2) agricultural drought, where soil
moisture and rainfall during the growing season are insufficient to support plant development;
3) hydrological drought, where both surface and groundwater resources are severely depleted;
4) A socioeconomic drought, which occurs when there is not enough water to meet demand,
has an impact on socioeconomic activities (Wu et al., 2021). Agricultural drought is related to
regional precipitation, soil water availability, crop demand, etc. while meteorological drought
is mostly related to the local water balance under normal conditions. When compared to other
crop types, a more drought-tolerant crop will experience less severe agricultural drought.
Consequently, the type of flora in a region affects whether or not there is an agricultural
drought.
One of the best methods for quantifying droughts is using drought indices. The indices may be
satellite-based or theory-based. The standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index are some of
the most used indices used to measure meteorological drought (SPEI). In terms of the
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Vegetation
Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Index (SMI),
Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index, etc., agricultural drought can be quantified. Drought
has a severely negative influence on the agricultural sector in developing nations. Therefore,
the associated loss from agriculture can be minimized if the time lag between the droughts is
understood. If the connection between the two consecutive drought types is established, it can
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help with the risk assessment and management of the agricultural drought (Vaani and
Porchelvan, 2018). The crop water requirement increases during a meteorological drought,
which causes the soil moisture level to decrease. Agriculture droughts are brought on by a
growing gap in soil water supply capacity as well as water demand which prevents crop roots
from obtaining enough water (Cao et al., 2022). Understanding the connection between
meteorological drought as well as agricultural drought will improve decision-making for the
logical approach to drought tolerance and disaster reduction (Zhao et al., 2021).
Meteorological drought and agricultural drought are intricately intertwined, with nonlinear and
complex interactions (Leng et al., 2015). A thorough understanding regarding the transmission
to agricultural drought from the meteorological drought is essential for mitigating and
managing agricultural drought (Dai et al., 2022). Due to the uniqueness and sensitivity of the
local arid environment, diverse climatic zones and land use practices exhibit varying drought
resistance (Cao et al., 2022). Consequently, the primary objectives considered for this study
are as follows: (1) To examine the transmission from meteorological drought (SPI) to
agricultural drought (NDVI) over the Ganga River Basin; (2) To conduct the comparative
analysis of the drought propagation results obtained from regression-based lag time analysis
for the period 2001-2020; and (3) To examine the variation of temporal and spatial drought
propagation patterns for different agroclimatic settings of the Ganga River basin.
2.1. Study Area and Datasets used
2.1.1 Ganga River basin
The area under investigation is the Ganga basin, which is between east longitudes 73°2' and
89°5' and north latitudes 21°6' and 31°21' and has a total length and width of approximately
1,543 km and 1024 km, respectively. It begins as a glacier in the Himalayas, flows through five
states and the northern plains, and empties into the Bay of Bengal along the Sundarbans delta,
the largest mangrove forest in the world. Along its 2,500-kilometer course, the river nourishes
vast tracts of agricultural area and a string of cities and towns. The vast Ganga basin, spanning
11 states and 860,000 square kilometres, is the most populated river basin in the world. It is
home to over 600 million Indians, or about half of the country's population, and generates
almost 40 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The basin supplies about one-third
of India's surface water, of which 90 percent is used for irrigation. India comprises the majority
of the basin's geographical area. It covers Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Bihar, West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and the states of
Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, and Uttarakhand. The Ganga basin is divided into ten agro-climatic
zones, each with its own distinct characteristics based on climate conditions and agricultural
techniques. The index map of the Ganga River basin with all the ten agroclimatic zones is
shown in Figure 1.
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Figure 1. Index map of the study area
2.1.2 Datasets used
The daily rainfall data were collected from India Meteorological Department and the MODIS
vegetation products (https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13Q1.006) used for the calculation
of NDVI were accessed through the Google Earth Engine catalog which is freely accessible.
Table 1 shows the details of datasets used for the study.
Table 1. Indices and the datasets used

Index Dataset Spatial Resolution Temporal Resolution
NDVI MODIS/061/MOD13Q1 250m 16-Day
SPI IMD Gridded Daily Precipitation 0.25° Daily
Data
The MODIS VI products (MOD13) provide spatial and temporal time series assessments of
global land cover conditions that can be utilized to monitor the Earth's terrestrial photosynthetic
plant function. At 16-day as well as monthly intervals, gridded vegetation indices maps
illustrating geographical and temporal fluctuations in vegetation behavior are created in aid of
precise seasonal and inter-annual surveillance of Earth's terrestrial vegetation. The MOD13Q1
V6 product provides a Vegetation Index (VI) value on a per-pixel basis. The daily gridded
rainfall data for India provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) with a high
spatial resolution (0.25 x 0.25 degree) is used for the calculation of SPI.
2.2 NDVI-SPI Correlation
This study is aimed to evaluate the time of propagation from meteorological drought to
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agricultural drought over different agro-climatic settings of the Ganga River basin. Spatial and
temporal drought propagation processes were analyzed, using SPI and NDVI with the help of
Pearson’s correlation coefficient and linear regression model. The methodological framework
for this work includes 1) calculation of SPI and NDVI, 2) calculation of Pearson’s correlation
coefficient between SPI at different timescales with one month interval and NDVI, 3) building
linear regression model for different agro-climatic zones, 4) finding the transmission time from
the occurrence of meteorological to agricultural drought for different agro-climatic zones.
The steps for the drought assessments using SPI and NDVI respectively are represented in
figure 2.
Figure 2. Procedure for meteorological and agricultural drought assessment
The overall methodological framework of the study is depicted in figure 3.
Figure 3. The methodological framework for the study
Page 5
2.2.1 Calculation of SPI
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests utilising the Standardized

Precipitation Tool (SPI), a flexible index, to evaluate the meteorological drought status. SPI
has been used widely to detect many types of droughts, involving agricultural, meteorological,
etc. Various accumulation timescales, particularly 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, and 48 months, could be
included while constructing the SPI series (Adarsh et al., 2019). Short-term drought is
represented by the 3-month SPI (SPI-3), intermediate drought by the 6-month SPI (SPI-6), and
long-term drought by the 12-, 24-, and 48-month SPI (Kar et al., 2018). SPI is computed on a
monthly basis using grid-based daily precipitation data from the Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD). The SPI is calculated using precipitation data collected daily from 2001 to
2020. Using the SPI, the precipitation deficit can be measured on various timescales.s In this
study, the SPI is calculated on 1-month, 2-month, 3-month, 4-month, 5-month, 6-month, 9-
month, and 12-month intervals. The equation for the calculation of SPI is given below:
(𝑥𝑖 −𝑥𝑚 )
𝑆𝑃𝐼 = (1)
𝜎
where xi corresponds to the monthly precipitation; xm corresponds to the mean rainfall for the
study period and σ corresponds to the standard deviation. Positive SPI values indicate
precipitation above the median, while values less than -1 imply precipitation which will be less
than the median. According to the SPI, a meteorological drought initiates when the value is
equal to or below -1.0 and terminates when it turns positive.
2.2.2 Calculation of NDVI
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is considered one of the best tools for the
spatio-temporal assessment of vegetation dynamics over any region. The NDVI is calculated
using MODIS vegetation products (MODIS/061/MOD13Q1) obtained from the Terra satellite
and made available through the Google Earth Engine catalog. The spectral reflectance of
various objects on the surface of the earth is captured by MODIS via multispectral remote
sensing. The NDVI is determined by dividing the sum of the near-infrared (NIR) and red (RED)
reflectances by their difference. NDVI values vary from -1 to +1, with values close to +1
indicating healthy vegetation. Values below 0 indicate a lack of vegetation or stressed
vegetation. The following equation is used to calculate NDVI:
(𝑁𝐼𝑅−𝑅𝐸𝐷)
𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼 = (𝑁𝐼𝑅+𝑅𝐸𝐷) (2)
Near-infrared bands (NIR) and red electromagnetic spectrum bands (RED) are
corresponding terms in equation (2). The NDVI ratio has the advantage of removing some type
of band-correlated interference (positively correlated) as well as effects related to geography,
air attenuation, clouds, sun and view angles, clouds as well as cloud shadows, differences in
direct and diffuse irradiance, and clouds. Ratioing can, in some cases, lessen errors associated
with calibration and equipment. The noise correlation between red and NIR responses and the
degree of Lambertian (angle-independent) behaviour displayed by the surface determine how
Page 6
much noise may be reduced by ratioing. The time series NDVI data were generated for the ten
agroclimatic zones of the Ganga basin for the period from 2001 to 2020. Since the temporal
resolution of the MODIS vegetation product is 16 days, NDVI calculation was done for 16-day
intervals and was averaged for each month.
2.2.3 Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
The Pearson correlation coefficient is a statistical method for analyzing the statistical
relationship or connection between two dependent variables. Since it is based on the covariance
method, it is considered the most precise method for evaluating the relationship between the
relevant variables. If there are two variables X and Y, the correlation coefficient is described
as follows:
𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑋,𝑌) Ʃ(𝑥𝑖 −𝜇𝑥 )(𝑦𝑖 −𝜇𝑦 )
𝑟 = 𝜎(𝑋)𝜎(𝑌) = (3)
√Ʃ(𝑥𝑖 −𝜇𝑥 )2 √Ʃ(𝑦𝑖 −𝜇𝑦 )2
where r is the Pearson correlation coefficient, 𝐶𝑜𝑣 represents the covariance, 𝜎 indicates the
standard deviation, and 𝜇𝑥 and 𝜇𝑦 are proxies for the mean of 𝑥𝑖 and 𝑦𝑖 respectively. In this
paper, the interaction between SPI at varying timescales and NDVI and the correlations are
analyzed by the Pearson correlation coefficient.
2.2.4 Linear Regression Model
Linear Regression is a machine learning algorithm which is based on supervised learning. A

linear regression model describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or
more independent variables. In this study, the relationship between the independent variable,
SPI, and the dependent variable, NDVI is determined to study the link between the two drought
types at different timescales.
2.2.5 Lag time analysis
The reflectance of meteorological drought as agricultural drought is investigated using lag time
analysis. The lag time analysis is done by assessing the best correlation between the NDVI and
SPI at different time scales. The SPI timescale with the highest correlation with NDVI is used
for assessing the lag time. A good correlation between the NDVI and SPI-6 indicates that the
occurrence of meteorological drought may get expressed as agricultural drought within 6
months after the occurrence of meteorological drought and similarly if there is a good
correlation between NDVI and SPI-1, it can be concluded that possibly the meteorological
drought can become expressed as agricultural drought within one month after the occurrence
of the former one, however, there are several other factors to be taken into consideration.
Agricultural drought is generally driven by meteorological drought and follows it with a certain
amount of delay. It is acknowledged that a particular period marks the transition from a
Page 7
meteorological drought to an agricultural drought. A popular approach for determining the

duration of drought is correlation analysis. This study used Pearson correlation coefficients to
examine the correlations between the NDVI and SPI at various time scales and to determine
when a meteorological drought transition into an agricultural drought. A common technique
used to discern the propagation time of the drought is correlation analysis. The Pearson
correlation coefficient used in this study, was to examine the correlations between the NDVI
and SPI at various time scales and to assess time of propagation from meteorological drought
to agricultural drought. The best SPI accumulation period is represented by the maximum
correlation coefficient between SPI-n (n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12) and NDVI. The precipitation
deficit over the past n months can be evaluated using the SPI-n. ‘n’ is defined as the timescale
for SPI.
3.1. Drought propagation over different agro-climatic zones
The drought propagation can be assessed using the change in vegetation dynamics over any
region. The region with fewer vegetation characteristics will be probably undergoing drought.
The vegetation characteristics vary seasonally, which indicates that the climatic conditions of
any region have a significant impact on the drought characteristics over that region. The
vegetation dynamics over the Ganga River basin for the year 2020, during pre-monsoon,
monsoon, and post-monsoon are depicted in figure 4. The shift of the vegetation vigor from
the northern region to the southern region of the Ganga basin can be seen when the season shift
from the pre-monsoon to the monsoon. Similarly, there is a shift in vegetation vigor from the
western region to the eastern region of the basin with the change in season from monsoon to
post-monsoon.
(a) (b)
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(c)
Figure 4. NDVI maps of the Ganga River basin during (a) premonsoon, (b) and
(c) postmonsoon in the year 2020
The SPI over the ten agro-climatic zones at monthly intervals for different timescales was
calculated and compared with NDVI at the one-month interval for the period from 2001 to
2020. The Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r) between NDVI and SPI at different timescales
for the ten agro-climatic zones of the Ganga River basin are given in table 2.
Table 2. Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the ten agro-climatic zones of the Ganga
basin
Agro- NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI-

climatic -SPI1 -SPI2 -SPI3 -SPI4 -SPI5 -SPI6 -SPI9 SPI12
zones
Central 0.282 0.409 0.454 0.501 0.601 0.729 0.677 0.172
Plateau and
Hills Region
Eastern -0.138 0.071 0.252 0.389 0.452 0.455 0.404 -0.024
Himalayan
Region
Eastern 0.305 0.546 0.728 0.821 0.852 0.829 0.511 0.043
Plateau and
Hills Region
Lower 0.209 0.327 0.388 0.418 0.406 0.389 0.334 -0.06
Gangetic Plain
Region
Middle 0.159 0.32 0.368 0.381 0.446 0.546 0.614 -0.002
Gangetic Plain
Region
Page 9
Table 2. (continued)
Agro- NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI NDVI-
climatic -SPI1 -SPI2 -SPI3 -SPI4 -SPI5 -SPI6 -SPI9 SPI12
zones
Trans 0.328 0.349 0.225 0.132 0.158 0.333 0.524 0.021
Gangetic
Plain Region
Upper 0.315 0.413 0.378 0.323 0.344 0.479 0.588 0.038
Gangetic
Plain Region
Western Dry 0.484 0.587 0.547 0.499 0.506 0.563 0.535 0.235
Region
Western 0.123 0.385 0.589 0.717 0.757 0.725 0.372 -0.007
Himalayan
Region
Western 0.246 0.352 0.403 0.489 0.618 0.728 0.607 0.188
Plateau and
Hills Region
When compared to SPI at other timescales, SPI-6 showed strong relation with NDVI in the
Central Plateau and Hills region. The graph clearly shows that the rise in SPI6 in January and
February is immediately echoed in the NDVI in the same months. Similarly, a surge in the
post-monsoon SPI-6 is also reflected in the corresponding NDVI values. So, it can be inferred
that NDVI has a better correlation with SPI-6 (r = 0.73) and the meteorological drought can be
reflected as an agricultural drought within 6 months after its occurrence or after a lag time of
five months. With NDVI and SPI-9 exhibiting a strong correlation (r = 0.59), the Upper
Gangetic Plain responded to the meteorological drought differently. The figure demonstrates
that a similar pattern in NDVI during the pre-monsoon period is reflected by the low SPI values
during that time. The NDVI exhibits a similar trend to the SPI rise during the monsoon and the
steady SPI decline during the post-monsoon. An inference that the lag time for drought
propagation over the Upper Gangetic Plain is eight months, can be drawn from the study. The
Middle Gangetic Plain displayed a trend similar to that of the Upper Gangetic Plain, with a
stronger correlation between the NDVI and SPI-9 (r = 0.61). Eight months were found to be
the lag time between the meteorological drought and the agricultural drought. The NDVI had
a stronger correlation with SPI-5 in the Eastern Plateau and Hills Region (r = 0.85), which
suggests that it takes four months for a meteorological drought to turn into an agricultural
drought there.
The Lower Gangetic Plain region showed the strongest correlation between NDVI and SPI-4
(r = 0.42), which can be used as proof that a three-month lag exists between the occurrence of
a meteorological drought and an agricultural drought. The lag time was observed to be five
months in the Western Plateau and Hills region, with NDVI and SPI-6 showing a significant
correlation (r = 0.73) and a comparable behavioral trend during pre-monsoon, monsoon, and
Page 10
post-monsoon. Similar to the Eastern Plateau and Hills region, the Western Himalayan region's
NDVI showed a stronger association with SPI-5 (r = 0.76), indicating that the drought
propagation period in this zone can be four months. Similar to the Upper Gangetic Plain and
Middle Gangetic Plain, the Trans Gangetic Plain region displayed a good correlation between
the NDVI and SPI-9 (r=0.52). It may be deduced that the drought propagation period in this
location may be eight months from the seasonal behavior of SPI-9 being reflected in the same
pattern of NDVI. The Eastern Himalayan region's lag time was found to be five months, with
SPI-6 and NDVI showing a significant relation (r=0.45), comparable to Central Plateau and
Hills region and Western Plateau and Hills region.
When compared to the other nine agro-climatic zones of the Ganga River basin, the Western
Dry region displayed a distinct trend. With NDVI exhibiting a strong connection with SPI-2
(r=0.59), it was determined that the lag between meteorological drought and agricultural
drought was one month. Contrary to the other zones, it may be assumed that any change in
precipitation in this area will be immediately reflected in the agriculture of the area.
3.2. Linear Regression Model
The linear regression models were built between the NDVI and the SPI-n with the highest
correlation with NDVI for all the ten agro-climatic zones. To study the link between the
meteorological drought and the agricultural drought, the linear regression model is used. Figure
5 shows the linear regression models for different agro-climatic zones of the Ganga basin.
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
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(e) (f)
(g) (h)
(i) (j)
Figure 5. Linear regression models between NDVI and SPI at the time scale with the highest
correlation with NDVI, for the ten agro-climatic zones of the Ganga River basin
Among the linear regression models, the Eastern Plateau and Hills region had a high R2 value
(0.7241), which indicates that there is a high possibility for the transmission of drought in a lag
time of around four months. Similarly, high values are also observed for Central Plateau and
Hills region (0.5557), Western Plateau and Hills Region (0.5558), and Western Himalayan
region (0.5948) which indicates a high chance for the lag times of these regions to be five
months for Central Plateau and Hills region and Western Plateau and Hills region and four
months for Western Himalayan region. The coefficient of determinations between the NDVI
and SPI at the most correlated time scale, for the ten agro-climatic zones, is illustrated in figure
6.
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Coefficient of Determination for different agro-climatic zones

0.8
0.7
Coefficient of Determination
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Agroclimatic zones
Central Plateau and Hills Region Eastern Himalayan Region
Eastern Plateau and Hills Region Lower Gangetic Plain Region
Middle Gangetic Plain Region Trans Gangetic Plain Region
Upper Gangetic Plain Region Western Dry Region
Western Himalayan Region Western Plateau and Hills Region
Figure 6. Coefficient of Determination for the ten agro-climatic zones
3.3 Discussion
For the study of drought propagation, different approaches can be followed. In this study, the
Pearson correlation coefficient and Linear regression model were used to assess the lag time
between the two types of droughts. There are several studies where correlation coefficients are
used as a tool for studying drought propagation characteristics. In a study by Dutta et al. (2013),
a similar approach can be seen, where the Pearson correlation coefficient between NDVI and
SPI was used to assess the drought propagation under different agro-climatic conditions in
Eastern Rajasthan. Cao et al. (2022) used Spearman’s correlation coefficient between VCI and
SPEI to study the effect of meteorological drought on agricultural drought under different
climatic zones and vegetation conditions in North-West China. In a study by Abbes et al.(
2018), a linear regression model was used to study the dependence of NDVI on SPI, which is
similar to this study. The results obtained using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and the linear
regression model in our study were satisfactory and were comparable with the results of the
above-mentioned studies. Hence, it can be inferred that these two tools used in the study can
be effectively used to establish the relationship between the meteorological and agricultural
drought. The SPI timescale with highest correlation with the NDVI can be used as an
instrument to assess the propagation time between the drought events.
Figure 7 depicts the time of drought transmission from meteorological drought to agricultural
Page 13
drought over different agro-climatic zones. It can be seen that in the regions with sufficient
amount of water availability (Upper Gangetic Plain, Trans Gangetic Plain, Middle Gangetic
Plain), the propagation time can extend up to eight months whereas, in regions with low water
availability (Western Dry region), the drought propagation can occur within one month. This
propagation time from the meteorological drought to agricultural drought can be used as a basis
to predict the occurrence of agricultural drought and the policymakers can take the appropriate
decisions to support the farmers and also protect the environment at the proper time.
Drought propagation time for different agri-climatic zones
Western Plateau and Hills Region

Western Himalayan Region
Agro-climatic zones
Western Dry Region

Upper Gangetic Plain Region
Trans Gangetic Plain Region
Middle Gangetic Plain Region
Lower Gangetic Plain Region
Eastern Plateau and Hills Region
Eastern Himalayan Region
Central Plateau and Hills Region
0 2 4 6 8 10
Propagation time (months)
Figure 7. The propagation time of drought in the ten agro-climatic zones of the Ganga River
basin.
4. Conclusions
This study focused on the investigation of the propagation dynamics of drought over the Ganga
River basin by assessing the lag time for the period from 2001 to 2020. Two indices namely
the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) were used to assess the meteorological and agricultural drought respectively. Based
on the Ganga basin's agro-climatic categorization, the spatial analysis of drought propagation
dynamics was evaluated to aid in the investigation of the role that various agro-climatic
environments play in the differences in drought propagation. The following are the conclusions
drawn from the study:
▪ It was found that the drought propagation time varied from one month to eight months
for different agro-climatic zones which tells that the vegetation characteristics of a
region have a significant influence on the drought propagation characteristics.
▪ The Western Dry region with very less water availability and vegetational
characteristics showed a faster propagation rate from the meteorological to agricultural
drought. The lag time between two types of droughts in this region was found to be
only one month whereas the Upper Gangetic Plain region, Middle Gangetic Plain
Page 14
region, and Trans Gangetic plain region with good water availability and vegetational
characteristics showed a lag time of eight months for the drought propagation.
▪ It was found that if a region's water availability and vegetational characteristics are
improved, the risk that a meteorological drought will lead to an agricultural drought can
be reduced or the interval between droughts can be lengthened, giving time for the
necessary actions to be taken to lessen the impact of meteorological drought on the
region's agriculture.
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Page 15
Engineering (HYDRO 2022 INTERNATIONAL) at Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh, India
Bed Load Transport in Non-uniform Sand Bed Channel: A Review
Singh.P1, Chavan.R2
1
M.Tech Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National
Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India –462003; Email: 212129107@stu.manit.ac.in
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology, Bhopal, India –462003; Email: rutujamchavan@manit.ac.in
Abstract
Non-uniform sand bed load sediment transport is an ongoing phenomenon in river and
flowing stream. Entrainment of particles in rivers by turbulence is the subject of river
engineering research. The important goal of researchers is to assess the shear stress. This
review paper highlights the study related to transport rate for bed load. Several forces,
particularly fluid forces, are responsible for the initiation of motions in particle in fluvial
hydrodynamics. The hiding exposure mechanism makes the threshold for incipient motion
more complex in a non-uniform sediment bed. The shield number is generally used to
describe the initial motion conditions of sediment transport; however, it has some
limitations in non-uniform sand bed channels. Some other modified methods like White’s
Approach, Dey’s Approach, and the correction factor for hide-exposed mechanism of non-
uniform transported particle are also been discussed in this paper. Studying the bed load
motion is critical because every particle has different size and different shear stresses for
incitation of motion. The state of current knowledge of all the above-mentioned
parameters on bed load transport is discussed in this paper and the future direction of
research is summarized.
Keywords: Correction Factor, Incipient Motion, Non-uniform sediment, Shield’s Diagram,

Turbulent Flow.
1. Introduction
Bed load particles are sediment particles that involve coarser particles (sand, gravel, or
coarser particles) that move in various patterns like rolling, sliding, and saltation on the
bed. Sliding and rolling modes are used for sediment transport at relatively low excess
shear stress at bed. Here load is frequently used to define the sediment load rate at which
sediment is loaded in the mainstream. a sediment movement that is typically near with the
bed, whereas single sediment particles are generally continuous while moving
discontinuously. This type of sediment transportation is called contact load transport.
Because sediment particles temporarily lose connection with the lower base for instance of
time to reach an average height in the water, they are driven primarily stream-wise in a
rapid sequence of jumping motions. As there is a rise in excess shear stress at the bed.
This type of sediment transportation is called Saltation. Estimating the flow intensity at
which sediment motion begins is most important challenge sediment transport mechanism
Page 1
because at low-velocity particles do not move and for the movement of particles, there
should be a rise in flow intensity to initiate the motion of the particle. This initiation of
motion of the particle is termed incipient motion. However it is challenging to pinpoint the
precise point at which motion begins. The velocity at which incipient motion starts is
termed threshold velocity or critical velocity. The grain particles begin to move when the
shear stress is high enough to initiate movement, and this shear stress is referred to as
critical tractive shear stress at the bed.. Several factors are there to initiate the movement
of the sediment particle. For a given shear stress value, it will be either the minimum shear
stress or the larger size of the grain that comes into motion. Three types of forces
primarily act on particles:
1. a force acting due to fluid motion
2. contact force acting between particles
3. a force acting due to submerging weight of particles
Turbulence is the most critical aspect of sediment transport. Although this is a property of
the flow and its property depends on the critical conditions. Sediment movement, on the
other hand, is strongly related to turbulence phenomena and is sustained by flow against
gravity and bed résistance. The particle is subject to pressure force (drag) and viscous
shear drag (frictional) as a result of fluid flow. The particle motion is determine by the
equilibrium of all forces. The force produced by flowing fluid acting on the particles and
causing it to transport are called drag forces and lift force. The following factors
contribute to the lift force: (1) the bed surface sediments undergo the greatest velocity
gradient; as a result of the large pressure difference and buoyant forces acting on the
particles. (2) Sediments may experience buoyancy. as a result of sudden changes in
vertical velocity close to the bed; and (3) the Magnus effect may be at work when
sediment particles are spinning in a slip-like motion. (Dey, 1999). A small drag force is
sufficient for entrainment the sediments if the lift force is equals’ to the particle
submerged weight. (Reitz 1936) discussed a idea of a lift criterion in sediment
entrainment, wherein the flow and the viscosity had been vital parameters. (Einstein and
El-Samni 1949) calculated the lift force as a difference in hydrostatic pressure between
the upper and the bottom points of hemispheres. (Misri et al. 1984) assumed that the lift
force dominates the motion of fine particle whereas drag force dominates in the motion of
coarser particles. Here contact force and submerge weight are acting as the resisting
forces. The precise amount of lift on sediments is currently unknown, despite the fact that
lift forces undoubtedly contribute to bed particle entrainment. There aren't enough
experimental findings to develop a dependable relationship for lift. (Mittal et al. 1990)
Assuming that the lift force causes the motion of fine particles and the drag force causes
the motion of coarse particles, a hide and exposure correction factor is proposed. (Patel
and range raju (1996)) revised the correction factor in which in prior equation only non
dimensional grain size is involved but in revised equations they introduce the karmer
uniformity equation but due to introduction of coefficients it make the equation more
complex and less applicable.
Page 2
Figure 1 Movement of the sediment grain with flow. (Dey, S. (2014)

Fluvial Hydrodynamics.)
Figure 2 Differences in particle state when rolling or sliding on the bed versus lifting over
fluid (water) as a load in suspension. (Dey, S. (2014) Fluvial Hydrodynamics.)
`
Entrainment of courser particle compare to uniform particle having equal size is much
easier .Because coarse particle on the bed have a larger likelihood of being exposed to the
flow during non uniform sediment movement processes, but during modeling the scenario
became just inverted in this for tiny particle on the bed due to the fact they're much more
belike to be sheltered with the support of using coarse particles. Until recently, most
research on non uniform sediments have been predicted that some kind of correction
factor should be there to account this hide and exposure impact and using this
modification factors for uniform sediments transport models.
Page 3
Figure 2 hiding exposure mechanism (wu et al. , 2000)
2. Different Approaches and modified Approaches for threshold sediment motion
Du boys’ Approach: One of the historical equations of sediment transport is the du Boys
formulation, which is characterised by excess bed shear stress. Du Boys (1879) assumed
that sediments movement in a series of superimposed layers of varying thicknesses, with
the tractive force provided by uniform flow is applied to the top layer's surface. The mean
velocity rises linearly in direction the bed surface as the layers slide over one another. It
signifies that velocity is maximum at upper layer at beginning to form the bed surface and
zero at the bed.
Figure 3. Du boys’ model of bed load transport (Dey, S. (2014), Fluvial Hydrodynamics.)
Page 4
Shield diagram: A shield diagram is a method to quantify the incipient motion in the sand
and gravel in sediment transport. Shield in 1936 plot the graphical relation between
critical shield parameter and critical Reynolds number. He also did experiments for further
data collection in 0.8m in length and 0.4m in breadth flumes. The flume at bed contains
particles of diameter size range between 0.36 to 3.4mm having different materials like
coal, amber, granite, etc. for each run he use to plan the bed and take different discharges
with mean velocity. Throughout this experiment, he finds total shear stress in bed. After
each run with the flow, a bed load is used to collect in a trap downstream of the flume.
With the help of bed sediments trapped in the trap, he gets the total sediment rate at
different discharge conditions. if extrapolated the value for zero rate of transport in case of
no collection of sediment in trap.sheild ranges the Reynolds no between not smaller than 6
and not larger than 600 and the values in-between this will decide the flow regime either it
will be hydraulically smooth or rough flow regime due to small data between From this
range, extrapolate the threshold to the shear value. Shield also did not consider the lift
force. Both shield parameters and Reynolds num are dimension less number .thus the co
relation between shield parameter and Reynolds num is known as shield diagram. These
diagrams represent the condition for threshold of sediment transport.
Threshold value = f (ρ, ρs , μ, γ‵D , τo)
Threshold dependent on (ρs) relative density, (μ) dynamic viscosity, particle size, (R*)
Reynolds number
Van Rijn’s Approach: In this approach he consider the saltation mode for sediments
motion in which he comes with an result that with rise in particles size and excess bed
shear stress result in increase of length and height of saltation. He define sediments
transportation rate as product of velocity of particles and volumetric concentration of
sediment particle and saltation height .Where concentration is inversely proportional to
particles parameters.
White’s approach: In this approach during threshold of sediment motion white consider
sliding motion in particle. He assumed the negligible affect of lift forces on initiation of
bed particle motion so he neglected lifting force in his analyses so introduction of
sediment is only because of drag force. He classified hydraulically transitional and rough
flow regime at Reynolds number equal or greater than 3.5 and for smooth flow regime at
Reynolds number’s less than 3.5 and hence only friction drag will act, absence of pressure
drag is there. He also introduces a turbulent factor to represents the ratio of the mean bed
shear stress to the instantaneous bed shear stress. He experimentally obtain rough flow
regimes (33 ≤ R* ≤ 1280) yielding Θc = 0.044.
Here (R*) Reynolds number
Threshold Shields parameter Θc ,
Page 5
Figure 4 shield’s model (Dey, S. (2014) Fluvial Hydrodynamics.)
Figure 5 shield’s diagram (Dey, S. (2014) Fluvial Hydrodynamics.)
Iwagaki’s approach: in this approach for motion of sediment under unidirectional stream
flow. He thought about the force stabilize within the flow region, which was divided into
viscous sub layers and turbulent flow regions. He considered the two-dimensional flow on
the x-z plane. Based on the critical Reynolds number, Igwagki classified the flow regime
into three parts. If R*≤6.83 then particle are submerge in viscous sub layer it correspond
to smooth flow regime and If R*≥51.1 then viscous sub layer did not exists and it
correspond to rough flow regime If 6.83<R*≤51.5this condition correspond to transitional
regime.
Page 6
Smith’s and Wiberg approach: In this approach calculates the critical shear stress using
the particle's sliding mode. He calculated lift force as the difference in square velocity’s at
the top and lower portions of the target bed particles. For hydraulically smooth and rough
flow regimes, he adopted distinct velocity profiles. For smooth flow (R*≤3) and
transitional flow (3≤R*≤100),
Dey’s approach: He calculated the threshold conditions for a 3-d tightly packed denser
bed. He considers the particle in rolling modes. Based on the critical Reynolds number,
Dey divides the flow regime into three parts. If R* is equal to or less than 3, the flow is
hydraulically smooth, and the velocity distribution obeys and vary linearly. If R* is more
than 70, the flow is hydraulically rough, and the velocity distribution follows the
logarithmic velocity law. If R* is between 3 and 70 means not less than 3 and not more
than 70, the flow will be in a transitional regime, The development of drag force is due to
viscous skin frictional forces and pressure.
3. Summary
In this paper the analysis of initiation of particle motion is given by different research
scholars and researchers and authors .To find shear stress by different approaches. The
effect of bed-material gradation and sediment particle size can both be taken into account
by the hide exposure correction factor. Based on this correction factor, determining the
critical shear stress for the incipient motion of no uniform sediment has been done more
accurately. In shields approach indirect log-log plot. Many of the application became
complicated as a result of this implicitly. Therefore, more effort is needed to formulate the
shields parameter explicitly. Many studies believe sliding to be the most important
operation, with roll and lifting receiving less attention, yet all are equivalently significant in
terms of force balance across particles. Iwaki (1956), Ikeda (1982)) used sliding based
model. They made no mention of turbulence or particle arrangement on the bed. Dey
focused on the incipient motion in rolling concept. He also received the Magnus force
effect as well, but there was no turbulence little research has been done on lifting, so further
research is needed to enhance the transport mechanism of lifted loads. The salted and
suspended modes of the moving particles in this case show finer flow details that can be
large-scale dynamics, implying a significant enhancement of the models. Lift evaluation
became critical if the particles do not float out of the flow. Pressure changes from the bed
also provide lift; therefore study becomes more necessary from a calculating approach. The
force balance model is difficult to implement due to a shortage of statistics and lift force
theory. In the future, it will be necessary to conduct appropriate survey research based on
highly accurate data and applicable theories.
Page 7
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Development of Flood Generation Models using Stochastic and Machine

Learning techniques
Ajay Gaikwad ˡ, Litan Kumar Ray² and Manohar Reddy V.3
1
M.Tech Scholar, National Institute of Technology Warangal, Warangal – 506004;
Email: gace20427@student.nitw.ac.in
2
Assistant Professor, National Institute of Technology Warangal, Warangal – 506004;
Email: litan@nitw.ac.in
3
Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology Warangal, Warangal – 506004;
Email: vm721007@student.nitw.ac.in
Abstract
Floods are the most common and destructive natural phenomenon which cause a major losses
to human life and socio-economy. Early quantification of accurate flood magnitude and time
is necessary for mitigating the flood effects. Flood generation models play a key role in early
flood predictions. In the present study, a stochastic-based Auto Regressive Integrated Moving
Average model along with three different machine learning- based models such as Support
Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbor models were
developed for flood generation at Bamni G&D sites in the Wardha river basin, a sub-basin of
Godavari basin. For the present study, 10 high magnitude single peak flood events and 6 high
magnitude multiple peak flood events were identified form daily data of 1960 to 2017. Each
flood generation model was calibrated with seven single peak flood events and validated with
the remaining three flood events. In calibration, the average NSE was obtained as 0.67, 0.98,
0.81 and 0.70 for the ARIMA, SVR, RF and KNN based models, respectively. The average
NSE value was found to be 0.56, 0.89, 0.62 and 0.48, respectively for the validation process.
The average error in flood peak and error in time to peak were found to be less than 10% and
5% for each model in calibration and validation. The results shows that the SVR model perform
better than other models for Bamni G&D sites. Further, the SVR model was chosen for the
multiple peak analysis. The average NSE of the multiple peak flood events is 0.92 and 0.61 in
calibration and validation, respectively. The generated model shows that this model are capable
enough to mimic the flood behavior of the basin and hence, can be suitably use for the flood
prediction study.
Keywords: Flood generation, Machine learning models, Stochastic models, Support vector
regression, ARIMA model.
1. Introduction
Floods are the most common natural hazard that can impact on both individuals and
communities. These natural calamities are unavoidable and occurred mostly due to the high
intensity rainfall. One of the major concerns of these type of natural hazards are their potential
risks and loss of human lives. Pre-alarming systems and proper management can reduce the
Page 1
impact and severity of flood induced damages. The impact of flood can be reduced by
improving and/or developing flood prediction techniques, which involves estimating the
magnitude, lead time, and duration of the flood, depending on its characteristics. The accurate
prediction of floods can help in the evacuation of people and developing effective water
management policies. Mosavi et al., (2018) stated that a robust and accurate flood prediction
system is very important for assessing the effects of natural disasters and for developing
effective disaster management strategies. The accuracy of the flood prediction system depends
on various factors. One, such factor is the improvement of flood simulation models, which can
significantly improve the estimation of flood magnitude and time to peak for a flood event.
However, the dynamicity of the climatic conditions makes it fundamentally complex to the
prediction of flood lead time and occurrence. Therefore, now a day’s, mostly data-specific
simple flood generation models are preferred for flood prediction purposes. These data driven
models can mimic the complex behavior of physical processes and basin nature and can be
benefited from specific techniques like, event-based, empirical black-box, stochastic,
deterministic, lumped and distributed, continuous, and hybrids.
Flood models can be available in various types depending upon their solution methods. For
decades, physical based models were used by the researchers and scientist to predict the
magnitude, time to peak and durations of floods. Despite the capabilities of physical models,
they often require the use of various hydro-geomorphological datasets. This makes it difficult
to predict short-term flood events. The drawbacks of these physical models encourage the use
of data-driven models, such as statistical and machine learning models (Reddy and Ray., 2022).
These models can perform variety of aspects of floods, such as calculating the flood peak,
volume and nonlinearity. Most of the machine learning algorithms are supervised machine
learning algorithms, which works based on the statistical learning theory and the structural risk
minimization (Vapnik, Vladimir., 1999). They train models with non-probabilistic linear
techniques to minimize the errors and maximize the geometric margin. Due to the simplicity
of these models with less data requirements, the models are frequently being used in various
types of studies (Abbasi et al., 2021; Adnan et al., 2020; Ali et al., 2020; Chang and Chen,
2018; Devak et al., 2015; Gudmundsson and Seneviratne, 2016; Jang et al., 2022; Lee and
Ouarda, 2011; Luo et al., 2019; Reddy and Ray., 2022; Schoppa et al., 2020; Sharif and Burn,
2006; Valipour et al., 2013). In the present study also, these data driven techniques were used
to develop the flood generating models, which can be further used for flood prediction purpose.
For this, a stochastic-based Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model
along with three different machine learning- based models such as Support Vector Regression
(SVR), Random Forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbor models were developed for Bamni gauge
and discharge site in Wardha river which is a tributary of Godavari river.
2. Study Area and Data Used
2.1 Study Area
The present study was conducted in the Wardha basin which is a sub basin of Godavari river
basin (Figure. 1). It covers 46177.8 km2 of area, and spreads in the states of Telangana, Andhra
Pradesh and Maharashtra. Its geographical location is in between the latitudes of 19.26° N to
Page 2
21.87° N, and the longitudes of 75.90° E to 79.46°E. Wardha basin is located in a semi-arid
region with a hot and dry environment. Summers begin in March and end in May, with typical
high temperatures in the range of 40°C - 45°C. The monsoon season begins in June and lasts
through September, with an average rainfall of 800 mm.
Figure 1. Study area map of Wardha basin

2.2 Data Used
Gridded rainfall data of resolution 0.25o × 0.25o was obtained from India Meteorological
Department (IMD) Pune for the period 1960-2017. The observed stream flow at Bamni G&D
site was collected from INDIA WRIS official website (https://indiawris.gov.in/wris/) for the
period of 1960-2017. The daily discharge data of Bamni station from 1960 to 2017 was
carefully evaluated and flood peaks were extracted. From the daily data, 10 high magnitude
single peak flood events and 6 high magnitude multiple peak flood events were extracted to
develop the flood generation models. The details of the extracted single peak flood events and
multi peak flood events were given in Figure 2 and Figure 3 respectively.
Page 3
Figure 2. Selected observed single peak flood events at Bamni G&D site
Figure 3. Selected observed multi-peak flood events at Bamni G&D site

Page 4
3. Methodology
In the present study an attempt was made to develop the flood generation models with the help
of stochastic and machine learning based models. For this purpose, a stochastic model namely
ARIMA model and three machine learning models namely, Support Vector Regression (SVR),
Random Forest (RF) and K- Nearest Neighbor (KNN) models were developed. The models
were calibrated using 7 flood events separately. The best fitted parameters of each model were
averaged out for the validation of the models using 3 different flood events. The performance
of each model was evaluated by four performance indicators namely, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency
(NSE), error in time to peak, error in flood peak and percentage bias (PBIAS). The best model
from single flood peak analysis was further used for multiple peak flood analysis.
3.1 ARIMA model
ARIMA model is a stochastic model mainly used for prediction and forecasting purpose. It is
the combination of autoregressive model and moving average model. The term ARIMA refers
to a set of components that are used in the modelling of various types of complex systems.
These include autoregressive (p), integrated (d), and moving average (q). These are used in the
order of p, d, and q. The MA and AR terms are determined by the temporal correlation of the
time series. The general form of ARIMA model was given in Equation (1).
∅ (𝐵) ∇𝑑 𝑋 (𝑡) = 𝜃 (𝐵)𝜀(𝑡) (1)
Where, 𝑋 (𝑡) = time series, ∇ = differencing operation, d = order of differencing, ∅ (𝐵) =

characteristic functions for AR(p) and 𝜃 (𝐵) = characteristic functions for MA(q) model.
3.2 Support Vector Regression
Support Vector Regression (SVR) is a popular supervised machine learning algorithm, which
is popularly used in flood prediction and flood forecasting studies. The SVM uses a training
algorithm to build models that are non-probabilistic and can minimize the classification error.
It can also maximize the geometric margin by solving inverse problems. It mainly works on
the statistical learning theory and the structural risk minimization rule. For more details of the
SVR model readers may refer to (Bermúdez et al., 2019; Vapnik, V. "Mukherjee s., 2000.)
3.3 Random Forest (RF) Algorithm
Random forests are a combination of tree predictors such that each tree depends on the values
of a random vector sampled independently and with the same distribution for all trees in the
forest (Breiman, 2001; Tyralis et al., 2019). RF is a supervised machine learning algorithm
which can use for classification and regression studies. Random forests for regression are
formed by growing trees depending on a random vector (Θ) such that the tree predictor h(x, Θ)
takes on numerical values. The output values are numerical and assumed that the training set
is independently drawn from the distribution of the random vector Y, X. The mean-squared
Page 5
generalization error for any numerical predictor h(x) is given by Equation (2).
𝐸𝑋,𝑌 (𝑌 − ℎ(𝑋))2 (2)
3.4 K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm

K-nearest neighbor is one of the simplest supervised machine learning algorithms mostly used
for classification as well as regression. KNN is mostly used for small dataset because it is the
lazy learner. The K factor in KNN is the number that denotes how many nearest neighbors
should be included in the voting process(Botula et al., 2013; Nemes et al., 2006). In regression
when K equal to X, a data point is predicted by taking average from its X nearest neighbors. A
data point is classified or predicted based on the majority votes of its X nearest neighbours. In
terms of KNN, if the number of K is too low the predictions are supposed to be more biased.
If K is too big then it’s going to take lot of time to process. Other option to choose K is to use
the square root of ‘n’. Where ‘n’ is the total number of data points. To find out the distance
between two points KNN model used Euclidean distance measurement techniques. Euclidean
distance is calculated as square root of squared difference between predicting point (X) and
existing point (Y). The formula for Euclidean distance is given in Equation (3).
𝑘
𝐸𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = √ ∑ (𝑋𝑖 − 𝑌𝑖 )2 (3)

𝑖=1
3.5 Model Development
Generally, model development consists a two-step process. In first, model is trained with the
predictors and predictand which is well known as calibration. Later, the trained model is
validated with the calibrated model for predictand. In the present study, observed stream flow
is taken as predictand and lagged rainfall and stream flow are taken as predictors. Each model
is calibrated with the seven different flood events initially and the averaged parameters from
the calibration process are further used for validation of the remaining three flood events in the
single flood peak analysis. For multiple flood peak events, four flood events were used for
calibration and remaining two flood events were used for validation.
3.5.1 Performance Analysis
Each model has different learning capabilities and predicts differently. Hence, it is necessary
to choose the best model among them. In the present analysis, Performance of the developed
flood generation models was evaluated by the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), error in time
to peak, error in flood peak and percentage bias (PBIAS). The performance indicators were
shown in Table 1.
Page 6
Table 1. Performance evaluation metrics considered for the present study

Performance Formula
Indicators
Nash–Sutcliffe 2
∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑄𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑚 − 𝑄𝑖𝑜𝑏𝑠 )
Efficiency 𝑁𝑆𝐸 = 1 −
∑𝑛𝑖=1 (𝑄𝑖𝑜𝑏𝑠 − (𝑄𝑖𝑜𝑏𝑠 ) )
𝑎𝑣𝑔
Peak flow Error 𝑄𝑝𝑠𝑖𝑚 − 𝑄𝑝𝑜𝑏𝑠
𝐸𝑄𝑝 = ( ) × 100
𝑄𝑝𝑜𝑏𝑠
Time to peak Error 𝑡(𝑄𝑝𝑠𝑖𝑚 ) − 𝑡(𝑄𝑝𝑜𝑏𝑠 )
𝐸𝑡𝑝 = ( ) × 100
𝑡(𝑄𝑝𝑜𝑏𝑠 )
Percent bias ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑄𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑚 − 𝑄𝑖𝑜𝑏𝑠 )
𝑃𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆 = ( )
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑖𝑜𝑏𝑠
× 100
Where, 𝑄𝑖𝑜𝑏𝑠 = Observed flow value, 𝑄𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑚 = Simulated flow value, 𝑄𝑝𝑠𝑖𝑚 =Simulated flood peak
value and 𝑄𝑝𝑜𝑏𝑠 = Observed flood peak value
Four flood generation models namely, ARIMA, SVR, RF and KNN models were developed
for event-based flood prediction at Bamni G&D site in Wardha river basin. Performance of
these models were evaluated using Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE), error in time to peak (Etp),
error in flood peak (EQp) and Percentage Bias (PBIAS). Firstly, the aforementioned flood
generation models were developed for single flood peak analysis and the best model from
single flood peak analysis was used for the multiple flood peaks. The results of the developed
flood models were given in Figure 4 and Figure 5, respectively for calibration and validation
of single peak flood events. Both the Figure 4 and 5 showed that all the models are capable of
correctly simulate the peaks and time to reach the peaks. The results confirm that all the models
can be used to simulate the event-based floods.
4.1 ARIMA
The results of ARIMA model showed that the model was significantly able to mimic the flood
behaviour of all the events in calibration and validation (Figure 4 and 5). In calibration, the
averaged best parameters of AR order, the degree of differencing, and the MA order were found
as 1, 0, and 2, respectively. The performance indicators of the simulated flood events were
given in Table 2. From the Table 2, it was found that the NSE ranges from 0.52 to 0.88 for
calibration period and 0.52 to 0.6 for validation period. Similarly, the range of EQp was found
as 40.34 to – 23.87 for calibration period, while in validation the range is from 4.72 to -36.46.
These results confirm that the model was capable to simulate the events-based floods at Bamni.
The EtP value for each flood event was found to be zero, which indicates that the ARIMA model
simulated the peaks in the same day as found for the observed for calibration and validation
process. The PBIAS results indicated that except for event 5, ARIMA model was under
Page 7
simulating the floods for calibration and validation period for all the events. The results of
event 2 and event 6 were not upto the mark.
Figure 4. Observed and Simulated flood events during Calibration period by

ARIMA, SVR, RF, and KNN at Bamni R&D site.
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Figure 5. Observed and Simulated flood events during Validation period by

ARIMA, SVR, RF, and KNN at Bamni R&D site.
Table 2. Performance analysis of developed flood generation models in

calibration and validation by ARIMA.
Event ARIMA
NSE EQp Etp PBIAS
EVENT1 0.86 -18.85 0.00 -8.90
EVENT2 0.52 -8.04 0.00 -24.80
Calibration
EVENT3 0.69 -23.87 0.00 -13.50

EVENT4 0.70 -9.56 0.00 -26.90
EVENT5 0.60 40.34 0.00 12.31
EVENT6 0.53 -17.90 0.00 -28.80
EVENT7 0.88 7.97 0.00 -0.60
EVENT8 0.57 -24.00 0.00 -34.33
Valida
tion
EVENT9 0.60 4.72 0.00 -18.60

EVENT10 0.52 -36.46 0.00 -27.51
Page 9
4.2 SVR
The results of SVM model showed that the model was significantly able to mimic the flood
behaviour of all the events in calibration and validation (Figure 4 and 5). In calibration, the
averaged best parameters of cost, gamma and epsilon were found as 4, 0.0158 and 0.10,
respectively. The performance indicators of the simulated flood events were given in Table 3.
From the Table 3, it was found that the NSE ranges from 0.97 to 1.00 for calibration and 0.89
for validation. Similarly, the range of EQp was found as 5.03 to -4.30 for calibration period,
while in validation the range is from -1.93 to -12.76. These results confirm that the model was
capable to simulate the events-based floods at Bamni. The EtP value for each flood event was
found to be zero, which indicates that the SVR model simulated the peaks in the same day as
found for the observed for calibration and validation process. The PBIAS ranges from 0.94 to
-1.58 for calibration and 14.36 to -4.21 for validation. The results of event 8 and event 10 were
not upto the mark from SVR model in validation. The performance of the SVR model for flood
generation is extremely well for calibrated and validated flood events.

calibration and validation by SVR.
SVR
Event
NSE EQp Etp PBIAS
EVENT1 1.00 -4.30 0.00 -0.84
EVENT2 0.95 -3.05 0.00 -0.88
Calibration
EVENT3 0.99 -3.40 0.00 -1.58

EVENT4 0.99 -2.83 0.00 0.00
EVENT5 1.00 5.03 0.00 -0.37
EVENT6 0.97 -2.94 0.00 0.90
EVENT7 0.98 -3.26 0.00 0.94
EVENT8 0.89 -12.76 0.00 14.30
Valida
tion
EVENT9 0.89 -1.93 0.00 -4.21

EVENT10 0.89 -4.41 0.00 14.36
4.3 RF
The results of RF model showed that the model was able to simulate the flood behaviour of all
the events in calibration and validation (Figure 4 and 5). In calibration, the averaged best
parameters of NTREE and MTRY were found as 2000 and 62, respectively. The performance
indicators of the simulated flood events were given in Table 4. From the Table 4, it was found
that the NSE ranges from 0.61 to 0.95 for calibration and 0.54 to 0.68 for validation. Similarly,
the range of EQp was found as 19.59 to -21.23for calibration period, while in validation the
range is from 20.95 to -10.80. These results confirm that the model was capable to simulate the
events-based floods at Bamni. The Etp results indicated that except for flood events 1, 3 and 4,
Page 10
RF model simulated the peaks in the same day as found for the observed for calibration and
validation process. The PBIAS results indicated that except for events 1, 2 and 5, RF model
was under simulating the floods for calibration, while in validation flood event 8 was under
predicted. The results of event 5, event 9 and event 10 were not upto the mark from RF model.

calibration and validation by RF.
RF
Event
NSE EQp Etp PBIAS
EVENT1 0.79 -21.23 0.004 3.6
EVENT2 0.78 -13.34 0.000 2.2
Calibration
EVENT3 0.61 -15.29 0.003 -1.5

EVENT4 0.89 -13.77 0.003 -16.4
EVENT5 0.82 19.59 0.000 38.4
EVENT6 0.83 -15.16 0.000 -10.1
EVENT7 0.95 -10.99 0.000 -6.2
EVENT8 0.68 -10.80 0.000 -2.50
Valida
tion
EVENT9 0.59 20.95 0.000 33.10

EVENT10 0.54 18.55 0.000 20.90

calibration and validation by KNN.
KNN
Event
NSE EQp Etp PBIAS
EVENT1 0.9 -16.96 0.000 -7.5
EVENT2 0.66 -21.65 0.000 -0.30
Calibration
EVENT3 0.75 -17.61 0.000 -1.90

EVENT4 0.64 -3.46 0.000 -22.90
EVENT5 0.62 9.16 0.000 33.1
EVENT6 0.7 -24.84 0.000 -16.4
EVENT7 0.69 -9.19 0.000 -26.1
EVENT8 0.51 -10.87 0.000 -9.30
Valida
tion
EVENT9 0.51 -4.85 0.001 0.50

EVENT10 0.42 -5.85 0.003 9.40
4.4 KNN
The results of KNN model showed that the model was able to simulate the flood behaviour of
all the events in calibration and validation (Figure 4 and 5). In calibration, the averaged best
Page 11
parameter of number of nearest neighbours (K) was found as 4. The performance indicators of
the simulated flood events were given in Table 5. From the Table 5, it was found that the NSE
ranges from 0.62 to 0.90 for calibration and 0.42 to 0.51 for validation. Similarly, the range of
EQp was found as 9.16 to -24.84 for calibration period, while in validation the range is from -
4.85 to -10.87. These results confirm that the model was capable to simulate the events-based
floods at Bamni. The Etp results indicated that except for flood events 9 and 10, KNN model
simulated the peaks in the same day as found for the observed for calibration and validation
process. The PBIAS results indicated that except for events 5, 9 and 10, KNN model was under
simulating the floods for calibration and validation process. The results of event 4, event 5 and
event 7 were not upto the mark from RF model.
The results of single peak flood event analysis indicated that the SVR model performed better
than all other models for flood generation. The performance of the SVR is extremely well
followed by RF model. Both the ARIMA and KNN models were performed similar in
calibration period, however, ARIMA model performed better in the validation period. Results
also showed that the simulated flood events from SVR model were in close agreement to the
observed flood events in terms of flood magnitude, peak and time to reach peak (Figure 4 and
5). Hence, the SVR model was further used for multi-peak flood prediction analysis.
4.5 Multi-Peak flood prediction analysis
SVR model was found as a best performing model in single peak flood simulation and was
chosen for multi-peak flood event analysis. Total six multi-peak flood events were selected,
out of which four events were used for calibration process and the remaining events were
chosen for validation process. Three parameters namely cost, gamma, and epsilon were used
in the model development. The average of the best parameters in calibration were 20 (cost),
0.001 (gamma) and 0.002 (epsilon). These parameters further used in validation process for
model development. The scatter plots of observed and simulated multi-peak flood events were
given in Figure 6 and Figure 7 for calibration and validation process, respectively.
Table 6. Performance indicators of multi-peak flood events in calibration and validation.

Event NSE EQp Etp PBIAS
Event1 0.96 -0.06 0.000 4.50
Event2 0.89 -3.52 -0.003 -4.20
Calibration
Event3 1.00 -0.11 0.000 2.00
Event4 0.97 -0.10 0.000 -2.30
Event5 0.59 -21.70 -0.010 -1.30
Validation
Event6 0.61 -14.80 -0.003 4.70
The results of the performance analysis for multi-peak flood events during calibration and
validation were given in Table 6. The NSE value was found as 0.96 during calibration and was
0.6 for validation. The average EQp was found to be -0.95 and -18.25 during calibration and
validation, respectively. The Etp was found to be zero for three food events except event 2
Page 12
during calibration. For flood event 2, the peak was coming 2 days earlier then the observed
flood peak. In contrast, the Etp was found 4 days earlier for flood event 5 during validation.
The average PBIAS value was found to be 0.2 in calibration and 1.9 in validation. Most of the
time the developed model under simulate the peak of the flood events in multi-peak analysis.
The peak date also not simulated on the same date with respective flood events during
validation. The results indicated that for flood analysis a single model may not be sufficient.
The single event floods can be simulated with a single model while for multi-peak analysis the
same model may not perform well. Therefore, a new model can be developed for the analysis
of multi-peak events.
Figure 6. Scatter plots of observed v/s simulated multi-peak flood events in calibration.
Figure 7. Scatter plots of observed v/s simulated multi-peak flood events in validation.
Page 13
5. Conclusions
Floods are one of the most prominent disasters that are occurring regularly in local scale. To
reduce the flood damage, a quick and robust computational techniques are required. In the view
of these considerations, the present study attempted to develop flood generation models using
stochastic and machine learning approaches. This study analyzed the various aspects of floods
like flood event agreement, flood peak magnitude and timing over Wardha river basin. The
results showed that:
1) Four flood generation models namely, ARIMA, SVR, RF and KNN performed
satisfactorily during calibration period and the performance of the developed flood
generation models were in the order of SVR>RF>ARIMA>KNN. All the models suitably
mimic the single-peak flood events during the calibration.
2) ARIMA model and KNN models were performed similar during calibration process in
terms of performance indicator, however, the results of KNN model during validation were
not up to the mark.
3) SVR flood generation model performed significantly for flood event agreement and flood
peak prediction in single peak flood event analysis. The model can be suitably use for the
prediction of single peak flood events for Wardha basin.
4) The developed SVR flood generation model performed average in flood event agreement
and flood peak prediction for multi-peak flood analysis. The simulated result shows
variation in time to peak analysis with the observed peak during the validation period.
It can be concluded that a developed single-peak flood event model may not be suitable for
simulation of multi-peak analysis. It is better to use different models for different purpose and
finally the results can be superimposed. The results of the present study may be useful for the
local stake holders and NGOs for the flood prediction in the wardha basin.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Study of Various Shapes of Gryones Using Flow 3D

1
M.Tech Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering,MANIT Bhopal-462003,India;
Email: dehariyamanjeet199@gmail.com
2
Assisatant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, MANIT Bhopal-462003 India;
Email: rutujamchavan@manit.ac.in
Abstract
Groynes help aquatic habitat resources more than other types of bank protection structures. Groynes
are constructions positioned at an angle to the flow to direct water away from dangerous areas. They
maintain a desired channel for the purposes of erosion management, enhanced navigation, and flood
control and are built of stone, gravel, rock, soil, or piling. Several experiments were carried out in a
physical model of a river reach to test the effects of various groyne shapes on the flow field.
According to the literature, straight groynes or spur are more studied than others. However, banks are
protected. In this study, it is compared how deep the scour may go around straight and L-head
groynes. The results show that the maximum depth of scour around L-head groynes with parallel
walls facing upstream is lower than that of straight groynes. In this study, FLOW 3D software is used
to differentiate between different shapes of gryones and their effects, and numerical simulations were
performed in FLOW-3D. Differential equations such as Navier-Stokes, finite volume method,
conservation of mass, and momentum equations are also used. Aside from these, FLOW-3D uses the
volume of fluid (VOF) equation to ensure that proper boundary conditions are applied at the free
surface. When comparing numerical results to experiments, a nested mesh configuration combined
with the Van-Rijn formula on sediment transport yielded more accurate results
Keywords: Flow 3D, Navier-Stokes, Van-Rijn, Gryones
Introduction
Groynes, also known as spur dikes, are structures that run parallel to a river's main flow
direction. A spur dike is a long construction that has one end attached to the bank of a river or
stream and the other end jutting out into the flow (Kuhnle et al 1999). In order to prevent
riverbank erosion brought on by a concentration of flow, these are often river training
structures that are placed at an angle to the flow. Additionally, they might improve flood
protection by accommodating flood flow, minimize bank erosion by stabilizing the flow,
improve sediment transport efficiency, guide flow to a particular section of a river, and
maintain channel depth to improve navigation. The waterway is constrained by the spurs'
placement on the river bank, which alters the fluid's kinematic structure. Scour hole
development at groyne tips and sediment deposition inside groyne fields are two important
processes that can be seen while studying morphology within a groyne field. The most
common issue seen around any structure is scouring, according to numerous studies carried
out by different academics.
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December 22 -24, 2022
GRYONES WITH DIFFERENT HEAD SHAPES

T- SHAPES GRYONES
L-SHAPES GRYONES
RECTANGULAR GRYONES
Fig.no.1 Classification of groynes by appearance in plan view (Adapted from Przedwojski et al.
(1995b))
FLOW NEAR THE GRYONE
 A single groyne stretched out in a straight line is the simplest groyne configuration. A
part of the river is constrained by the groyne, which also has a considerable effect on
the kinematics of the flow nearby. Mean velocity and specific discharge both rise as a
result of the constriction. Greater macro turbulence results from increasing gradients
as the mean velocity increases. Numerous research have been carried out to examine
the flow pattern near a single groyne, and these investigations have shown some
important flow aspects, which can be summarized as follows:
 Separate area
 Horizontal eddies that migrate
 Variations in water level
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December 22 -24, 2022
Numerous scholars, including Chen & Ikeda (1997) and Ouillon & Dartus (1997), examined
the characteristics of the separation region generated behind a non-overflow type groyne
(1997). These research shed light on the geometry of the separation zone in a rectangular
channel downstream of a groyne. The following characteristics can be summed up:
 Main flow zone
 Return flow zone
 Shear layer
 reattachment zone
Groynes that are submerged, should be flown over and around. The river's water level rises as
the outflow increases. The flow patterns in the groyne field alter when the groynes are
submerged at a specific discharge. “This changes the momentum and mass exchange between
the groyne field and the main channel” (Uijitewaal, 2007). The submerged groynes restrict
the flow not just horizontally but also vertically. This obstruction of the flow causes flow
resistance and energy Josses, which increases the water level. To minimise resistance during
strong discharges, groynes should be as brief and low as possible
FOLLOWING ARE THE ASPECTS WHICH IS AFFECTED BY GRYONE AND THEIR

SHAPES
1) Scour around different shapes of gryones
2) Bed morphology
3) Streamline
4) Velocity vector on the surface of water
5) Velocity distribution
When prior studies are analyzed, it becomes clear that the research on spur dikes
encompasses a wide range of topics that may be divided into three groups, specifically
investigations of hydrodynamics and mechanics of flow around the spur dike: Studies
pertaining to the characteristics of the scouring process, as well as, to a lesser extent, studies
on the common pattern of bed material transportation in channelsresearch on the mitigation
of coastal erosion through the construction of grones in the rivers or streams, the effect of
gryones on the river morphology, etc. Many academics improved the writings on
surrounding gryones for scour and flow pattern (Rahman et al.,1999, Rajaratnam et al.,1983,
Tambe et al.,2017,Ishigaki et al., 2004). Examples of this include processes of interchange
across rivers, velocity distribution in spur fields, and adjustment by spur-like structures
(Hossain et al.,1981, Vaghefi et al., 2015). Researchers are investigating the best spur design
to make it durable and practical in light of the influence of spurs on channels.
Scour around gryones or Spur dikes
Scour is a natural phenomenon brought on by water flow that clears debris from bedrock and
stream banks while also relocating it away from hydraulic structures. The natural equilibrium
of rivers or streams is broken as water enters the dike, causing a severe disruption in the flow
pattern at the structure's foundation and scouring (Ezzeldin et al., 2007). An important
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
consideration in a bridge’s design and construction is the scour around its foundation.
There have been numerous bridge tragedies caused by the scour or deterioration of hydraulic
structures (i.e. piers, abutments and spur dikes etc.). As an outcome, it is essential to estimate
the scour depth surrounding hydraulic structures with greater accuracy in order to build them
safely and affordably. Since it determines the foundation depth of such buildings, It is
necessary to accurately forecast the depth of the scouring beneath the river bed near bridge
abutments and spur dikes. Numerous equations and computational equations are still based
on theoretical approaches and practical studies for scour depth estimates. Due to the severe
three-dimensional flow patterns that occur at bridges during floods, the high expense of
equipment, and the difficulties of getting knowledgeable individuals to bridge positions at
peak flow periods, it is difficult to get accurate measured data. Estimates of the scour depth
that are too low pose the risk of increasing construction costs or causing structural damage.
Fig. No. 2 Bed elevation change due to Spur dike
USE OF FLOW-3D
INTRODUCTION OF FLOW 3D
The three-dimensional, transient Navier-Stokes equations are simultaneously solved by the

CFD application “FLOW-3D” (Flow Science 2009), was used to do the simulations used in
this work. This project's software, FLOW-3D, was selected because it can precisely simulate
free surface flows, produce non-uniform grids, automate time-step selection, and do graphical
post-processing. To depict solid obstructions while monitoring fluid-air or fluid-fluid
interactions, FLOW-3D uses the fractional area-volume obstacle representation (FAVOR)
technique, which is a registered trademark of the company. By calculating the effect on the
flow of partially wet or dry cells, it also accounts for these conditions.
simulated turbulent flow FLOW-3D uses one of the five turbulence models that the
application provides. " Large Eddy Simulation, Prandtl Mixing Length, Two Equation Model
(k-), One Equation Model, Turbulent Energy Model, and Renormalized Group (RNG) Model
are the five turbulence models utilised by FLOW-3D software. The five turbulence models
that the FLOW-3D program employs are the Large Eddy Simulation, Prandtl Mixing Length,
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
Two Equation Model (k-), One Equation Model, Turbulent Energy Model, and Renormalized
Group (RNG) Model.
Hydrodynamic Model
The Navier-Stokes equations are temporally averaged in the most popular method for
modelling turbulent flow, the RNG model. By breaking up pressure levels and treating the
components of velocity fluctuations as isotropic scalar values, With this method, time-
dependent velocity variations are muted. When Reynolds Stresses are represented using
mathematical averaging, certain characteristics emerge. (Rodi, 1993). To resolve Reynolds
Stresses, turbulence modelling is used. The RNG approach had some drawbacks, according
to the researchers. The inability to describe anisotropic flows and capture real-time flow
dynamics is the most significant. However, RNG modelling continues to be the most often
used numerical approach, particularly for challenges involving the riverine environment, due
to its capacity to accurately represent a wide range of engineering concerns at low processing
costs.
Morphological Model
Bed load conveyance is the idea of sediment particles rolling and jumping into a dense bed.
The morphological model replicates the processes of sediment scour and deposition in
FLOW-3D using a number of empirical equations to carry out the computations. It is capable
of handling different species of cohesion less sediment with different characteristics.
Sediment that can be replicated comes in two varieties: packed sediment and suspended
sediment. The entrainment parameters must be determined in order to calculate the volume of
packed silt carried by flowing water. Utilizing one of the three bed load transport models
offered by FLOW-3D, the dimensionless bed load transport rate is computed as the
volumetric rate of sediment transfer as bed load per width of the bed.
It consists of the following steps-
MODEL SETUP OF FLOW 3D

 Model geometry and properties
 Meshing
 Boundary condition
 preprocessing
 post processing
 Result and discussion
As we can see from the outcomes, FLOW-3D has done a respectable job of calculating the
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
maximum amount of localization and scour. A bed's topography can be acquired using the
program in a number of ways as well. However, a quicker computer system is required due
to the lengthy simulation time required to anticipate the entire scour process. Future research
can also examine further interesting groyne forms, such as the flipped L-shape, I shape,
triangular shape, hockey shape of groyne, etc. For turbulence characteristics, we used the
RNG model in this study so that the comparison between the other four FLOW 3D models
could be further investigated. Distribution of velocity - Due to the presence of a spur dike, the
velocity keeps increasing fast as the channel width decreases. The findings demonstrate that
flanges cause a drop in surface velocity. in the groyne forms with head wings, and the
location of this high velocity is on the left side of the flange. Additionally, compared to a
rectangular groyne, the area affected by the reverse flow zone is relatively higher in T- and L-
shaped groynes. The simulation's outcome and analysis are as follows:
Velocity vector –
The simulation of all gryphon shapes revealed that. On the surface, it appears as though the
flow may be diverted into three parts as it approaches the spur dike. the part of the main
channel where the flow is accelerated and divided. This flow separation is believed to be
crucial to the scour procedure. At the second half of the flume, close to the corner,
anticlockwise eddies can be seen forming. Additionally, the stream creates a diving flow in
front of the dike due to velocity differences, which causes the generation of a dynamic water
pressure gradient in a downward direction. The major vortices produced by spinning are anti-
clockwise horseshoe vortices, which are created when the advancing flow enters the scour
hole. In addition to the horseshoe vortex, which was discovered to exist near the top of the
spur dike, there is another vortex system in the wake zone region known as the wake vortex
system.
Streamline –
Streamlines have been created near the bed and in the middle of the depth to analyse the
precise characteristics of particle motion at different depths. As can be observed, the velocity
increases from the bed to the highest level. When a river approaches a spur dike, its flow
velocity drops, causing sedimentation. The flow velocity increases as it passes over the flow
from the head of the spur dike. Streamlines have been created near the bed and in the middle
of the depth to analyse the precise characteristics of particle motion at different depths. As
can be observed, the velocity increases from the bed to the highest level.
Net Change in Packed Sediment Elevation

It is evident that as soon as the flow hits the structure, scouring begins. Maximum scour is
seen towards the nose of the spur dikes where a hole first forms. It is found that maximum
scour occurs in the rectangular shape groyne as compared to T- SHAPE and L- SHAPE
gryones
Contours –
The hole has the appearance of an inverted frustum cone, with the maximum scour depth
being virtually at the groyne tip at the vertex. The scour hole's circular base has a central axis
that extends the whole length of the spur dikes. In contrast to rectangular groynes, where the
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
scour hole encompassed the entire region encompassing both the upstream and downstream
sides, significant scouring can be seen from the upstream side of L-shaped and T-shaped
groynes up to the wing length, beyond which there is no evidence of erosion. extending the
entire distance between the wall of the riverbed and the point of the groyne.
Conclusion
In comparison to the other two shapes, the rectangular groyne had the greatest depth of scour.
Rectangular grooves have greater scour depths than T-shape grooves, while L-shape grooves
have greater scour depths than T-shape grooves. When compared to the downstream side of
the groyne, the scour was found to be greater upstream of the T-shaped groyne. The flow
pattern upstream of the groynes varies with depth. Negative velocity is seen near to the
downstream side of the river bank, behind the dikes, as a result of the reverse flow. It is
evident that, the maximum velocity area is larger in the rectangular-shaped channel than it is
in the other two varieties.. The maximum scour depth is near the spur dike's head on the u/s
side, and all of the spur dikes have erosive sediment deposited on the d/s side. Due to the
reverse flow behind the dikes at the downstream side, close to the wall of the river bank,
velocity is discovered to be negative. According to the analysis of all the data, T-shaped dikes
are more effective than the other two analysed shapes for protecting riverbanks from scouring
and hydrodynamics.
References –
Choufu, L., Abbasi, S., Pourshahbaz, H., Taghvaei, P. and Tfwala, S.,( 2019). Investigation
of Flow, Erosion, and Sedimentation Pattern around Varied Groynes under Different
Hydraulic and Geometric Conditions: A Numerical Study. Water, 11(2), p.235.
Elsaiad A.A. and Elnikhely E.A. (2016). “Exploration of Scour Characteristics Around Spur
Dike In A Straight Wide Channel” International Water Technology Journal, IWTJ, Vol. 6-
No.2,2016.
Giglou, A.N.; McCorquodale, J.A.; Solari, L. Numerical study on the effect of the spur dikes
on sedimentation pattern. Ain Shams Eng. J. 2017, 9, 2057–2066.
Gu, Z., Cao, X., Jiao, Y., & Lu, W. (2016). Appropriate CFD Models for Simulating Flow
around Spur Dike Group along Urban Riverways. Water Resources Management, 30(13),
4559-4570. Doi: 10.1007/s11269-016-1436-1
Kumar, A., &Ojha C., S., P., (2019). An investigation on mechanisms of equilibrium-stage
scour and deposition process around a submerged L-head groyne”, ISH Journal of Hydraulic
Engineering, Roorkee, India, 1-13.
Li, G.; Lang, L. & Ning, J. (2013) 3D Numerical Simulation of Flow and Local Scour around
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
a Spur Dike. IAHR World Congress, pp.1-9.
Masjedi et al. (2010) “Reduction of Local Scour at Single T-Shape Spur Dike With Wing
Shape in a 180° Flume Bend” World Applied Sciences Journal 8 (9): 1122-1128.
McCoy, A., Constantinescu, G. & Weber, L. J. (2008) Numerical Investigation of Flow

Hydrodynamics in a Channel with a Series of Groynes. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,
134 (2), 157-172
Pandey, M., Ahmad, Z. & Sharma, P. K. (2018). Scour around impermeable spur dikes: a
review. ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 24 (1), 25–44.
Peng, J. and Kawahara, Y. (1998): Application of linear and non-linear k-ε models to flows
around spur dykes, Annual J. of Hydraul. Eng., JSCE, Vol. 42, pp. 643-648
Uijttewaal, W. S. J., Lehmann, D., and Van Mazijk, A. (2001). “Exchange process between a
river and its groyne fields—Model experiments.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 127(11), 928–936
Page 8
27 international Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources
December 22 -24, 2022
An Approach to Utilize
tilize the Static Energy of Obstructed Water
ater to Enhance
the Use of River
iver Flows for Agricultural Water Supplies
upplies
Tiwari R.1, Chavan R.2

1
MTech Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, MANIT Bhopal-462003,
Bhopal 462003, INDIA;
INDIA
Email: rita27tiwari@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, MANIT Bhopal
Bhopal-462003,
462003, INDIA;
INDIA
Email: rutujamchavan@manit.ac.in
Abstract
Rapid changes in water inflows are caused by significant temporal variability of water flows
during the southwest monsoon in India. Due to the rapidly changing climate, floods are often
observed during the monsoon season. Floods of all sizes commonly affect areas near
floodplains, resulting in significant financial and material losses. Control points along
waterways must be changed to address changes in inflow in the future. The concept presented
here aims to improve
ve the use of irrigation canals while making it easier for water to leave the
upstream spillway basin. Along the agricultural canals, it is also planned to build water surge
pumping stations (PSS) for the supply of agricultural water. Water from canals can be lifted
to nearby agricultural fields along waterways using the traditional "hydraulic piston" idea.
The water's kinetic energy in the inflow is used by a hydraulic piston pump to create pressure
energy, which is then used to lift the water to a higher altitude. The hydraulic ram is low
maintenance,
ce, inexpensive, simple to use, and environmentally friendly. friendly The main
disadvantage is that a significant part of the input flow is spilled during the "hydraulic piston"
pumping process. However, when flow appearsappears in an open channel, it returns to the original
flow rather than being wasted.
Keywords: Hydraulic ram, Irrigation, PSS, and water hammer.
1. Introduction
India's unorganized usage of water for irrigation canals needs reform. India heavily relies on
groundwater
dwater for agricultural needs because surface water sources are unpredictable and not
structured or metered at all. Since there are no metered connections for gauging surface water
supplies, demand and supply are no longer connected, making it impossible to t explain the
current situation's inefficiencies. The high expense of pumping, especially when the land
being irrigated is far from the water channel or is downstream of any close blockage on the
watercourse, is one issue that is specifically related to the
the inefficiency of the agricultural
surface water supply. One of the biggest consumers of water is the irrigation industry, which
gets its water supply from upstream dam discharges. When the reservoir has reached its
maximum capacity and the downstream areas areas are in danger of flooding, it may be necessary
to augment storage if, after this point, a very big volume of water enters the reservoir in a
relatively brief period. Safety issues for the dam and the general public are raised by
insufficient storage in this
his circumstance.
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December 22 -24, 2022
The water's available potential energy upstream of the blockage can be used to produce the
amount of energy needed to circulate the water necessary to form a "pumped storage station"
(small weir). By creating an opening at the base of the barrier, the potential energy that is
present upstream of the blockage can be transformed into kinetic energy. The loss of the head
occurs during the flow through the orifice. The available kinetic energy at the orifice output
may not be adequate to pump the water to a sufficient height as a result of this head loss. To
compensate for this head loss and transform the available dynamic pressure at the orifice
output into the amplified static pressure, a hydraulic ram arrangement can be used, creating a
pumpeded water store with a high potential head. Each unit of these water tanks can be labeled
as a "Pumped Storage Station" (PSS) and the water tanks can be constructed to maintain this
pumped storage. Without the use of an external pumping source, the water he held
ld in these PSS
units can be transferred directly to the lands that are being irrigated
irrigated. Whenever there is a
continual stream of falling water, the pump will work continuously and automatically without
any additional electricity. This pump doesn't require any electrical input to the function,
unlike other pumps that do. It therefore can be used in areas without access to electricity but
with a never-ending
ending supply of moving water bbodies, such as rivers and lakes. The device can
be utilized in agricultural crops for water supply to animals and pumping water to farming
areas. In numerous underdeveloped countries,
countries providing enough domestic water to rural
communitiess spread out is a big issue.
issue. The expense of running conventional pumping
systems, both in terms of fuel and maintenance, is getting too high.
2. PSS (pumped storage station) unit design principles
An apparatus for hydraulic ram pumping will be constructed. The hydraulic ram pumping
mechanism will be given access to the orifice's outflow. Pumpi
Pumping
ng setups involve a network of
pipes connected to orifice flow to create the water hammer effect. A small reservoir will be
built to store the pumped storage at the output potential head of outflow from the hydraulic
ram pumping and will be connected to the
th hydraulic ram arrangement's outlet.
3. Hydraulic Ram Pumping Working Principle
A special device called a hydraulic ram pump employs the a portion of the water is pumped
to a head that is greater than the source head using the energy from a water stream
strea dropping
from a low head. A hydraulic piston pump runs mechanically and constantly without
a different outside strength source when there's a steady drift of water. The impulse valve and
the check valve are the most effective moving portions in a simple device known as a
hydraulic piston pump.. The device also has an air chamber where pres pressure
sure is created. A
hydraulic piston pump only operates occasionally because of the impulse and check valves'
cyclic opening and shutting. The drive pipe's pressure drast
drastically
ically increases when the waste
valve is shut. Consistently high pumping flows must be contained in an air chamber to keep
them from converting to a constant flow of water.
water
Page 2
December 22 -24, 2022
The three phases of a hydraulic piston pump's operational cycle are acceleration, delivery,
d
and recoil.
Fig. 1 Hydraulic Ram Pump
Acceleration -If the impulse valve is open, water will flow through the drive tube and out the
open valve. The resistance becomes strong enough to close the valve as the flow increases.
Once the valve starts to close, it closes fairly quickly.
Delivery - The water flow through the waste valve is stopped as it slams shut. Water that has
been flowing in the drive pipeipe has a lot of momentum that needs to be released. For a brief
moment, the water in the pump's body is compressed, creating a ssignificantignificant increase in
pressure.. When the pressure exceeds that of the air chamber, water is forced through the
delivery valve (a non-return
return valve). The delivery valve remains open until the pressure in the
pump body falls below the delivery pressure and the flow of water in the drive pipe has
almost completely slowed .After
After that, the delivery valve closes, preventing any air vess
vessel to
pump and drive pipe backflow.
Recoil:: The drive pipe's residual flow recoils against the shut-off
shut check valve, resembling a
ball that has been thrown back. The result is, the body of the pump experiences
experien a drop in
pressure to a level where the impulse
impuls valve can once again open.
The air waits beneath the delivery valve until the following cycle when it is pumped into the
air vessel with the delivery water. This makes sure that there is always air in the air vessel.
Water starts to speed down the drive pipe and out through the open waste valve as soon as the
recoil energy is exhausted, restarting the cycle. Water is steadily pushed up the delivery pipe
by the air vessel's pressure. The air vessel evens out the pulsating flow that was going
through the check valve and up the delivery line. The pumping process proceeds rapidly. Just
a tiny amount of water is pumped with each cycle of pumping. However, a sizable amount of
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
water can be lifted if cycles are repeated continuously for 24 hours. The water that spills
sp out
of the impulse valve and either onto the ground or pumping
pump station while the ram pump is
running is referred to as "waste" water. The ram pump does not deliver wastewater, but it is
this water's energy that drives the pump that delivers the water.
3. Different
ifferent parameter determination
1. Determine the volumetric discharge through the drive tube using

Q= 𝐷 nL/240 , (1)
In equation (1), Q is volumetric velocity through the pipe, D is the diameter of pipe, L is
length of pipe and , n is the rotational
rotati speed.
2. Head loss is determined by

H= 𝑓𝐿𝑉 /2Gd (2)
In equation (2) ,g is acceleration due to gravity,
gravity L is length of the pipe and, V is fluid
velocity
3. The T-fluid
fluid junction's flow velocity is determined by
𝑉 =Q/𝐴 (3
3)
In equation (3), Q is the volumetric fluid discharge
discharge, 𝐴 is cross-sectional
sectional area of pipe at T-
junction.
4. The driven pipe's fluid flow rate is determined by

b
𝑉 =Q/𝐴 (44)
In equation (4),Q is the volumetric fluid discharge and,𝐴 is area of pipe
5. Loss from abrupt T junction expansion is expressed as
𝐻 = (𝑉 − 𝑉 ) /2gD (55)
6. Additional head losses in piping fixtures are referred to as
𝐻 =𝐾 ( ) (6)
(
7. The Reynolds number

er for identifying the flow pattern is provided by
Re= 𝑉 /v (7
7)
8. The formula provides

ovides the ram pump's efficiency.
E = Q*h/((Q + 𝑄 )*H) (8)
(
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
4. Operational Approach and Performance Assessment

The power required by a hydraulic piston pump to raise water to a greater height is provided
by water sliding downwards as a result of gravity. The ram cycle that is based on the
following events similar to all other water-powered
water powered machinery, but unlike a water wheel or
turbine, it relies on the inertia of a moving object rather than water pressure.
I. Sequence
Water starts to leave the ram pump bbody

ody through the waste or "impulse" valve after filling
it up through the driving pipe (A) (B). The check valve is kept in place by the associated
spring, water pressure in the delivery line (E) and tank (D), as well as when it is normally
closed (no water in thee tank before start-up).
start In the beginning,, there is no pressure in the
tank (D), and there is no water delivery to the holding tank site via the exit pipe (E). View
Figure 2.
Fig.2 Hydraulic Ram Sequence I

II . Sequence
As shown
hown in Figure 3, water flowing into the pump through the drive
ve pipe (A) is directed to
impulse valve (B) at a high velocity and pressure.
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
Fig. 3 Hydraulic Ram Sequence II
III Sequence
As a "shock wave" produced by the he "water hammer" climbs return the drive pipe to the
tank of settling,, water no longer passes through the drive pipe (A). The waste valve (B) is
closed .The pressure tank's (D) ongoing expansion of air volume to equalize the pressure
causes a small amount of water to be driven out of the delivery line (E). See S the
illustration in Figure 4.
Fig .4 Hydraulic Ram Sequence III

IV Sequence
The shock wave enters the holding tank as the drive pipe "gasps" for water (A). As the
waste valve opens, water in the driving pipe (A) flows through the pump and out of the
impulse valve (B) (B). The ddelivery valve (C) stays shut until the pressure in the pressure
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
vessels (D) and the water flow from the delivery line have stabilized (E). Sequence 1 now
restarts from the beginning.
Fig. 5 Hydraulic Ram Sequence IV
The length of the drive pipe determines the cycycle

cle of operation for a hydraulic ram pump that
is mounted in this manner (see figure 5). The pump should run every 1.5 to 2 seconds to
complete a cycle; if it runs too quickly or slowly, the output will be impacted. The
effectiveness will decline. A driving
driving pipe that is too short will have a rapid cycle. or the
increased weight needed for the waste valve. The waste valve closes abruptly because the
column of water takes longer to overcome it due to an abnormally long drive driv pipe or too
much weight on it. The check valve (C) opens as a result of the brief highhigh-pressure
pressure "water
hammer" burst, allowing a high--pressure scenario "pulse" of water to enter the pressure tank
(D). The check valve (C) is closed to prevent reverse flow while the delivery pipe (E) is
forced
ed to release water as a result of the pressure vessels compressed air volume. As the
volume of air inside the pressurere vessels (D) keeps growing, fluid is driven aw way from the
delivery tube (E) into the holding vessels.
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
Fig.6 A Typical Hydraulic Ram Installation

5. Conclusion
It cann be seen that the hydraulic piston pump is a tool which operates well and profitably.
With the aid of basic pipe tools and without the aid of complicated machinery, the pump can
be constructed
cted at home. The hydraulic ram pump's versatility and ease of use on a variety of
surfaces are two further benefits. The volume of water provided at the outlet is rather
inefficient, but because the device doesn't require electricity, this method is advantageous
advan in
places where water needs to be pumped to higher altitudes without the usage of electricity .
The presence of such PPS units can reduce the high cost of pumping, improving the
agricultural sector's utilization of surface water flows. These PSS ununits
its can also be used as a
metered connection to track agricultural water usage. The data collected during measurement
can be used to plan for and control upstream outflows. In this way, PPS devices make
agricultural water consumption more sustainable.
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
6. References
 Diwan, P., Patel, A., & Sahu, L. (2016). Design and fabrication of hydraulic ram with
methods of improving efficiency. International Journal of Current Engineering and
Scientific Research (IJCESR),
(IJCESR) 3(4), 5-13.
 Guo, X., Li, J., Yang, K., Fu, H., Wang, T., Guo, Y., ... & Huang, W. (2018). Optimal
design and performance analysis of hydraulic ram pump system. Proceedings of the
Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy,
Energy 232(7),
841-855..
 Hussin, N. S. M., Gamil, S. A., Amin, N. A. M., Safar, M. J. A., Majid, M. S. A.,
Kazim, M. N. F. M., & Nasir, N. F. M. (2017, October). Design and analysis of
hydraulic ram water pumping system. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol.
908, No. 1, p. 012052). IOP Publishing.
 Mahmud, M. S., & Rahman, A. (2020). Design, Fabrication, and Performance Testing
of a Hydraulic Ram Pump System. Journal of Mechanics and Machines, 2(1), 1-8.
 Mohammed, S. N. (2007). Design and construction of a hydraulic ram
pump. Leonardo Electronic Journal
Jour of Practices and Technologies, 11,, 59-70.
59
 Mondol, S. S. (2017). Design, manufacture, and test a hydraulic ram. ResearchGate
Artikel.
 Rajaonison, A., & Rakotondramiarana, H. T. (2019). Theoretical study of the
behavior of a hydraulic ram pump with sprin
springs system. American Journal of Fluid
Dynamics, 9(1), 1-12.
Page 9
Discharge Estimation of Cutthroat Flume for Modular Flow
Kajale R. P.
Formerly Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering NDMVP’S KBGT College of Engineering, Pune
university, Nasik -422013, INDIA
E-Mail: rambhaukajale@yahoo.com
Abstract
Climate change increases the flood severity of rivers in this decay. To mitigate the effect,
accurate water resource planning and management are essential. Discharge measurements at
various locations of catchment help in planning the water resources. Cutthroat flume is a
simple, accurate, and economical discharge measuring device. Calibration of the flume in the
field is a laborious task. Seven Cutthroat flumes had experimented with in the fluid mechanics
laboratory and depth discharge observations were obtained. Fabricated Flumes were modelled
and prototyped with each other. Different formulas are available in flume literature used to
estimate of discharge of experimented flume, drawbacks are observed in formulas. The
discharge prediction model has developed using dimensional analysis. Estimated discharge by
new model and models of literature compared with observed discharge. The model developed
in this study found more accurate than the models of flume literature are the part of the study.
Key word: Cutthroat Flume, Dimension Analysis, Hydraulic Model, Modular flow
1. Introduction
The cutthroat flume is the new discharge measurement device among the critical depth flumes
family. The flume accompanied with numbers of benefits like, simple in construction,
economical to build, easy to installation and a horizontal floor that makes it self-cleaning. The
flume is with equal width convergent inlet section, the downstream divergent outlet section in
the company of a throat (neck) section, without a throat length so-called as a throat-less flume
or cutthroat flume. Figure 1, shows definition sketch of cutthroat flume.
Fig. 1. Definition sketch of cutthroat flume

For cutthroat flume under modular (free) flow condition to estimate the discharges relationship
introduce by Skogerboeet al. (1972) is as follow.
Qp= Cfℎ𝑎 𝑛1 (1)
Where Qp = Estimated discharge, Cf = modular flow constant, ha = upstream flow depth and
n1 = free flow exponent. The submergence ratio is defined as the ratio of the downstream to
upstream depth ( hb/ha.). For low submergence ratio, critical flow occurs nearer to the flume
throat, and the tail water conditions have little or no effect on the upstream head; this flow is
then called modular flow. Eq. (1), constant and exponent values change with flumes sizes. The
exponent varies with flume lengths and constant with throat widths and lengths, obtained from
rating curve (Skogerboe et al. 1972). These curves have been developed from flumes
experimentation and then graphical adjustment; intermediate sizes flumes constant and
exponent values can be calculated through interpolation. For modelling flume entrance, Keller
(1984) tested three cutthroat flumes within a scale range of 1: 4, observed small- scale effect
called the effects of different boundary layer growth. Moreover, Keller (1984) reported that the
transition submergence is the function of discharge. Relationship for discharge prediction was
not suggested in the study. Keller R.J. and Mabbett G.O. (1987) observed the increase in the
value of the exponent of the upstream depth with the increase in the discharge of Equation (1),
associated with the corresponding increase in water surface curvature. Many researches
contributed to the flume development. Ramamurthy et al. (1984) proposed a free flow condition
discharge estimation model is difficult in calculations. An improved model of flume (Weber et
al. 2008) limited to meter lengths of four different throat widths flumes. Manekar et al. (2007)
in the dimensionless form proposed the length dependent model. Under free flow, condition
suggested equation by Manekar et al. (2007) is as follows.
Qp/ (√gw (L)1.5) = 0.9169 (ha/ L)1.7053 (2)
Where w = Flume throat width; L= Flume length. And g = acceleration due to gravity.
Above mentioned authors provided separate discharge estimation relationships for free and
submerged flow. Torres and Merkley (2008) formulated model same can use for free and
submerge flow condition discharge estimations, is iterative in nature, cumbersome to
calculations and semi-empirical in nature. It is limited to one-meter lengths flumes of four
different sizes throat widths.
The purpose of this study is to find a discharge relationship in a generalized form available to
all kinds of cutthroat flumes. Moreover, it also seizes the exponent variation with lengths of
flumes, increase with discharges and provides an analytical approach for constants which are
the drawback observed in Eq. (1). The throat width of flume should be contracted sufficiently
to ensure the critical flow condition in the flume, hence considered as another part of the study,
which is not discuss any researcher of this flume literature.
2. Experimental setup
Laboratory experimentation of flumes performed in Fluid mechanics laboratories of MVP’S

KBGT College of Engineering, Nashik, Maharashtra (India) and SVNIT Surat, Gujarat (India).
The dimensions of various flumes used in experimentation are given in Table 1. Total seven
flumes experimented, from which CTF-1 to CTF-4 (CTF = Cutthroat flume) tested in MVP'S
KBGT college of Engineering and CFT-5 to CFT-7 at SVNIT Surat, Gujarat (India) Fluid
mechanics laboratories. The horizontal laboratory tilting flumes of sizes 0.9 m wide (B), 0.6
m deep (H), 15 m length (L) and 0.6 m (B), 0.45 m (H), 5 m (L) respectively of SVNIT Surat
and MVP’s Nashik were used in the experiments.
Table 1. Experimented cutthroat flume sizes and their design discharge
CTF No. Throat width w (m) Flume length L B Design discharge

(m) (m3/s)
01 0.100 0.220 0.150 0.0024
02 0.150 0.660 0.296 0.0028
03 0.203 0.440 0.300 0.0032
04 0.175 0.560 0.299 0.0031
05 0.302 0.914 0.505 0.0132
06 0.150 0.914 0.353 0.0063
07 0.606 2.640 0.900 --
The depths of flow in channels have measured with the gauges of least count 0.01mm in both
hydraulic flumes. Observed discharges had volumetrically measured in both the laboratories
by tank each with piezometers installed to measure the depth of water.
A 5HP pump were supplying the water for tilting flume of MVP’S KBGT COE Nashik and
two 7.5 HP pumps at SVNIT. The bottom slopes of flumes were adjusted to zero in both
longitudinal and transverse directions as well as tailgates kept fully open to attain free- flow
condition. Froude numbers were been calculated for each observation at upstream depth
gauging location during observations to ensure the sub-critical flow condition. The values of
measured heads, discharges and Froude number are in the tabular form given in the Appendix
Table A-1 experimented flumes. Discharge and throat width is an important constraint for
critical flow condition formation in the flume. A critical neck (Wc) width of cutthroat flume
required to develop a critical depth for a given discharge rate may be calculated using relation
(Subrahmanya 2008) is as follows.
27𝑄 2
wc =√8 𝑋 𝑔𝐸𝑜 3 (3)
Here wc = Critical width of flume with respect to discharge, E= Specific energy of flowing
fluid, Qo= Observed discharge; and g = gravitational acceleration. Throat width to length ratio
my kept within the range of 0.1 to 0.4 to an obtained good rating.
3. Theoretical analysis
The specific energy equation is considered in the development of the theoretical discharge
relationship. In Figure 1, the sketch of the cutthroat flume in which at upstream depth
measurement location section one is considered and section two near the throat width
contraction section. A critical depth considered to set near to the neck of the flume.
Considering energy correction factor as unity, neglecting friction loss and hydrostatic pressure
distribution in the flume specific energy of section one equated with two
1𝑉2 𝑉22
ha + 2𝑔 = y + 2𝑔 (4)
2g (ha- y) = 𝑣22 𝑣12
1 1
2g (ha- y) = 𝑄𝑝 2 [𝐴2 𝐴21
] (5)
2
Here ha = depth of water at section one, v1 = velocity of water at section one, y = depth of
water at section 2 and v2 = velocity at section 2. Cutthroat flume has a rectangular shape
(Skogerboe et al. 1972) at any transverse direction section, hence rectangular shape critical
flow condition approach of Streeter and Wylie (1983) is applied to develop upstream depth and
critical depth relation for flume.
For the condition of maximum discharge, approach velocity of Eq. (4) is neglected then
equation for velocity nearer to section two obtained is as follows.
Thus 𝑣22 = 2g (ha−y)
Discharge over neck section = A2 × v2
Q = w y × √2𝑔 (ℎ𝑎 − 𝑦) (6)
Differentiating Equation (6) with respect to y and equating (dQ/dy) it to zero
𝑑𝑄 𝑦
= w √2𝑔 [√(ℎ𝑎 − 𝑦) − ] =0
𝑑𝑦 2√ (ℎ𝑎 −𝑦)
y= (2/3) × ha (7)
Equation (7) gives the relationship for critical depth (y) with depth ha. Cutthroat flume is
basically a critical depth flume. The flumes are contracted to develop critical flow near the
neck (contraction) of the flume. The upstream depth and critical depth relationship of Equation
(7) helpful in the analysis of fluid flow problems. Flume number two has a size of 0.15m width
and 0.66m length, whose upstream pressure (depth) gauging point was 0.1466 m (2L/9, 2×
0.66/9 =0.1466 m) from the neck (Fig.1). Cutthroat is fixed geometrical flume, hence the width
of the flume (Bu) at upstream depth measurement location can be calculated for any flume by
using known flume dimensions, which is equal to 0.2477 m for considered flume.
Thus Bu/ w = 0.2477/0.15 =1.65
Putting values of Bu=1.65 w and y = 2/3 hain Equation (5) we get
1 1
2g (ha y) = 𝑄𝑝2 [(𝑤×0.667 ℎ )2 (1.65 𝑤×ℎ )2 ]
𝑎 𝑎
2g (ha y) (w ha) 2 = Qp2 1.888
2g (ha 0.6667ha) (wha) 2 = 1.888 Qp2
Qp= 0.594 √𝑔w ha3/2 (8)
In a general way Equation (8) can be written as
Qp= C√𝑔w ha3/2 (9)
For each discharge rate, the use of Equation (9), a single observation of upstream depth is
necessary; it accounts partially approach velocity as well as suites to all the flumes and involves
less calculations at the site. The constant (C) depending on Bu/w can be easily calculated for
different sizes of the flume as obtained in Equation (8) escaping need of graphical adjustment.
Equation (9) facilitates the discharge prediction for ideal flow condition such as critical depths
form near the neck, hydrostatic pressure distribution, stream lines are flat and uniform velocity
distribution in the flume.
4. Result and discussion
4.1. Data analysis
Estimated discharges have calculated using Equation (9), for experimented seven flumes data.
Each observed discharge has compared with estimated discharge. Variation of estimated
discharge with measured observed. Discharge estimations from Equation (9) found close to
observed discharge for the discharge (design discharge) which flume has been designed. Table
1, gives the flume dimensions and design discharge values of laboratory experimented flumes.
Equation (3) has used to fix the dimensions of throat width of flumes. It has been observed that
under the free- flow condition the flow passes from a subcritical state upstream through a
critical at some point downstream of the throat to supercritical or subcritical flow downstream.
At flume throat width design discharge, the water surface profile was relatively flat and critical
control situated close to the throat of the flume. At- large discharges than the flume throat width
design discharge water surface profile was curved, curvature increases with an increase in
discharge with respect to design discharge and critical control move downward. Flow profiles
were in convex shape and a piezometric head is less than hydrostatic pressure head. Deviation
of piezometric head with hydrostatic head depends upon amount of contraction variation with
contraction required for formation of critical flow, more the contraction from required (Eq.3)
more the deviation in heads observed and discharge estimation from Eq. (9). To use Equation
(3) variable E and observed discharge (Qo) required. For laboratory experimentation work, we
measure the depth of flows and discharges volumetrically or other means; from these two
observations specific energy at upstream depth measurement location can be calculated. If
critical throat width is calculated from Equation (3) for each flume observation (Table A-1) of
experimented flumes and used in Equation (9) instead of w both observed and predicted
discharge values of the pertinent observations arise nearly equal. Eq. (9) is modified by the
factor that takes care of discharge variation in flume over the design discharge. Changed form
of Eq. (9) after inclusion of modification factor is as follows.
Qp = α√𝐠w ha3/2 (10)
α =Modification factor
Modification factor accounts deviation of hydrostatic pressure at gauging station or variation

of available throat width over the required (Eq. (3) used to calculate required). The analytical
solution is necessary to find wc for different flumes would be operated with varying discharges
in the field over the design discharge of flume. Dimensional analysis approach was used in the
finding the relationship between wc and w. The variables associated with the critical flow
condition selected as critical width functions and solving through Buckingham ∏ theorem,
dimensionless groups of the variables formed for dependable wc. Regression analysis had
performed for various dimensionless groups; the excellent relationship found between wc/R and
w/R (R= Hydraulic radius at upstream depth measurement location). The graph is plotted
between w/R and wc/R using experimented data and independent data available in flume
literature. (i.e., the author experimented flume data as well as Skogerboes et al. (1973), Torres
and Merkley (2008) and Keller (1984) data). The coefficient determination of graph is 0.99.
Fig. 2, shows the graph between w/R and wc/R
Figure 2, gives trend line is formulated for critical throat width relation is as follows.
wcp=1.188 w0.889R0.111 (11)
Where wcp= critical predicted throat width. Equation (10) has one unknown as hydraulic radius
can be calculated from depth observation at gauging station and flume width at gauging station
from known dimensions of flumes. The relationship for modification factor obtained through
Eq. (11) and constant C is as follows.
α = 1.188 C (R/w) 0.111 (12)
Modification factor accounts deviation of hydrostatic pressure at gauging station. To account
viscosity and surface tension effect coefficient of discharge is introduced in Eq. (12).
Changed form of Eq. (12) is as follows.
Qp = Cd. α√𝐠w ha3/2 (13)
The observed coefficient of discharge is calculated through Eq. (13) for experimented flumes
data points. The graph between a ratio of upstream head to flume length and observed
coefficient of discharge had plotted, good relation observed between these two parameters are
given trend line relationship is as follows.
Cd = 0.975 + 0.289 (ha/L) (14)
ha= upstream depth; L= length of flume.
Estimated discharges are calculated through Eq. (13) for six experimented flume data of this
study. The small difference observed between estimated discharge and observed discharge of
partnering observation.
Fig. 2. The plot between w/R and wc/R.
The experimental data of Torres and Merkley (2008), Skogerbe et al. (1973) and Keller (1984)
are available in the flume literature. Equation (13) was used for discharge prediction for these
data to verify its prediction fitness. Skogerbe et al. (1973) experimental data is versatile. Data
ranges above the critical discharge, excluding Torres and Merkley et al. (2008) flume sizes data
accounted from Skogerboe et al. (1973) data set considering the limit of upstream depth
divided by throat width ratio less than 2 (ha/w< 2). Graph of observed discharge against the
estimated discharge using Equation (13) for the above-mentioned researcher as well as author
flumes experimental data are shown in Figure (3).
All data points of the estimation are lying near or over a line of 100% agreement. To understand
the variation in prediction ± 10 % deviation lines from the line of confidence have plotted.
Almost all the data points are falls within this band.
A throat width of CFT-7 (CFT-7 = cutthroat flume number seven) was not contracted to such
extent to develop the critical depth for whole discharge ranges (0.012 to 0.055 m3/s). During
experimentation of the flume both ha and hb (hb = depth of flow at downstream gauging
location) observations were also taken. The values of discharge estimation by Eq. (13) for CTF-
7 largely vary with observed discharge.
Fig. 3. The plot between observed discharge and predicted discharge by Eq. (13) for Author,
Keller (1984), Skogerboe et al. (1973) and Torres and Markley (2008) experimented data.
A submergence (hb/ha) calculated for all observations of CTF-7 were more than 0.9. This
analysis shows that critical depth should be developed in this type of discharge measurements
flumes. Equation (3) can be used to design the neck width of cutthroat flumes to ensure the
development of critical depth within the flumes.
4.2 Statistical performances and comparison
Two statistical tests had conducted to evaluate the performance of Equation (13). The standard
deviation of discrepancies were comparing observed discharges and Eq.(13) calculated for
author experimented flumes data. Discrepancy ratio is the ratio of estimated discharge against
observed discharge (α) it’s one (1) value is a required value. Obtained values of standard
deviation of the discrepancy ratio were smaller for author experimented flume data, Table 2,
list the values. Equally, standard errors of estimation had calculated through Equation (15) for
author experimented flumes data (Raman 2013).
∑(𝑄𝑜− 𝑄𝑝 )2
SEE= √ (15)
𝑛
In which Qo= Observed discharge, Qp= Predicted discharge and n number of data points. The
standard error of the estimate is a measure of the accuracy of predictions and these values
should be small. Obtained values of SEE are slight; listed in Table 2.
Equation (13) performance compared with discharge estimation relations of Manekar et al.
(2007) and Skogerboe et al. (1972) of flume literature. The standard deviation of discrepancy
and SEE are two statistical tests conducted to compare the relationships. Statistical tests values
in comparison for discharge prediction by Equation (13), Manekar et al. (2007) Eq. (2) and
Skogerboe et al. (1972) Eq. (1) with observed listed in Table 2. Four data sets are the part of
this study. In all four data set standard deviation discrepancies values are smaller for Equation
(13) than the Manekar et al. (2007) and Skogerboe et al. (1972) relationship that endorses the
accuracy of relationship. Similarly, for SEE values in all four data set the SEE values are lower
for Equation (13) than Manekar et al. (2007) (Eq.2.) and Skogerboe et al. (1972) Eq. (1).
Table 2. Values of statistical tests for Authors, Skogerboes et al. (1973), Torres and Merkley
(2008) and Keller (1984) experimented flumes data for Equation (13), Manekar et al.(2007)
Eq.(2) and Skogerboe et al.(1972) Eq.(1).
Item Author Skogerboe Torres et al. Keller (1984)

Data et al.(1973) Data (2008) Data Data
Eq.13 Man Skog Eq.13 Man Skog Eg.13. Man Skog Eq.13 Man Skog
et al. et al. et al. et al. et al. et al. et al. et al.
(2007) (1972) (2007) (1972) (2007) (1972) (2007) (1972)
SD % 2.58 7.80 54.0 3.05 6.07 6.30 3.58 9.10 28.9 4.48 14.0 27.83
SEE % 0.02 0.08 0.23 2.49 4.00 2.24 0.20 0.22 1.57 0.04 0.19 0.280
Note: - Man et al. (2007) = Manekar et al.(2007) and Skog et al.(1972)= Skogerboe et al.(1972)
Relative percentage errors calculated ([(Qo-Qp)/Qo] x 100) for discharge estimation relations
Equation (13), Manekar et al. (2007) Eq. (2) and Skogerboe et al. (1972) Eq. (1). Relative %
error gives an indication of how good is measurement about the actual value. Graph of observed
discharge against relative % error for Eq. (13), Manekar et al. (2007) Eq. (2) and Skogerboe et
al. (1972) Eq. (1) consisting of entire data of this study shown in Figure (4) for illustration.
Graph states smaller prediction deviation for Equation (13) from observed.
Fig. 4. The plot between observed discharge against relative % error of Eq. (13), Eq.(2) and
Eq.(1) for entire data of study.
5. Conclusion
The following are the conclusions of the conducted study and the laboratory tests of cutthroat
flumes
1. Theoretical discharge estimation Eq. (13) proposed for cutthroat flume under a free-
flow condition. The discharge estimations for all sizes of flumes are possible from the
recommended relationship. A relationship form is a simple, single observation of
upstream depth (ha) is sufficient for its use and provide good accuracy in estimation of
discharge.
2. CTF-7 has a dimension 0.606 m (W) x 2.64 m (L). For all observations of this flume,
submergence ratio has values more than 0.9. The discharge prediction using Equation
(13), found deviated with observed for this flume data. A throat width of this flume was
found not sufficiently contracted to change flow from sub-critical to critical and a critical
depth not developed in the flume under the discharge range study conducted. Throat
width dimension can be fixed using Equation (3) while designing the flume to ensure the
development of critical depth within the flume.
3. Finally, the result of this study is for fixed geometry cutthroat flume, but an obtained
relationship is independent of the length of flume hence this relationship can predict the
discharges of different convergent slope cutthroat flumes.
Appendix
[Appendix Table near here]
References
1. Keller, R. J., (1984). Cutthroat flume characteristics. Journal of Hydraulic

Enggineering,110, 1248-1263.
2. Keller, R.J., and Mabbett, G.O., (1987). Model calibration of a prototype Cut-throat flume.
of hydraulic research, 25, 329-339.
3. Manekar, V.L., Porey, P.D., and Ingle, R.N., (2007). Discharge relation for Cutthroat flume
under free flow condition. Journal Irrigation and Drainage, 133, 495-499.
4. Ramamurthy, A.S., Rao, M.V.J., and Auckle, D., (1985). Free Flow discharge
characteristics of throat less flume. Journal Irrigation and Drainage, 111, 64-74.
5. Raman, B.V., (2013). Higher engineering mathematics. McGraw Hill Education Private
Limited. New Delhi, India.
6. Skogerboe, G.V., Bennett, R.V., and Walker, W.R., (1972). Generalized discharge relations
for Cutthroat flume. Journal Irrigation and Drainage, 98, 569-583.
7. Skogerboe, G.V., Bennett, R.V., Walker, W.R., (1973). Selection and installation of
cutthroat flume for measuring irrigation and drainage water. Technical Bulletin 120, Colorado
state university experiment station, Fort Collins.
8. Streeter, V.L., and Wylie, E.B., (1983). Fluid Mechanics. McGraw-Hill, Ryerson,
Singapore.
9. Subrahmanya, K., (2009). Flow in Open channel. Tata Mcgraw-Hill, New Delhi, India.
10. Torres, A.F., and Merkley, G.P., (2008). Cutthroat measurement flume calibration for free
and submerged flow using single equation. Journal Irrigation and Drainage, 134, 521-526.
11. Weber, R.C., Merkley, G.P., Skogerboe, G.V., and Torres, A.F., (2008). Improved
calibration of Cutthroat flumes. Irrigation Science, 25, 361-373.
Appendix1A –Free flow observation data included with Froude numbers.
Flume No ha (m) Q (m3/s) wc wcp FR

CFT-1 0.0520 0.00240 0.100 0.103 0.30
0.0620 0.00330 0.103 0.104 0.34
0.0710 0.00410 0.105 0.105 0.37
0.0780 0.00475 0.105 0.106 0.39
0.0855 0.00540 0.106 0.106 0.41
0.0897 0.00590 0.105 0.107 0.43
0.0935 0.00620 0.105 0.107 0.43
0.0960 0.00640 0.106 0.107 0.44
0.0961 0.00650 0.106 0.107 0.44
0.0983 0.00670 0.106 0.107 0.45
0.1027 0.00720 0.106 0.107 0.46
0.1080 0.00770 0.106 0.108 0.46
0.1106 0.00810 0.106 0.108 0.48
0.1150 0.00850 0.106 0.108 0.48
CFT-2 0.0460 0.00280 0.150 0.148 0.14
0.0525 0.00350 0.151 0.152 0.16
0.0545 0.00360 0.154 0.152 0.17
0.0570 0.00390 0.152 0.153 0.17
0.0580 0.00410 0.156 0.153 0.18
0.0600 0.00413 0.156 0.155 0.18
0.0680 0.00505 0.152 0.156 0.19
0.0711 0.00543 0.152 0.156 0.20
0.0735 0.00580 0.154 0.156 0.20
0.0078 0.00640 0.155 0.157 0.21
0.0813 0.00680 0.155 0.057 0.22
0.0860 0.00740 0.155 0.157 0.22
0.0929 0.00830 0.154 0.158 0.22
0.0935 0.00850 0.156 0.158 0.23
0.0954 0.00880 0.158 0.159 0.23
0.1013 0.00960 0.158 0.159 0.24
0.1020 0.00980 0.158 0.160 0.24
CTF-3 0.0398 0.00320 0.200 0.195 0.18
0.0431 0.00370 0.204 0.196 0.19
0.0442 0.0038 0.203 0.197 0.19
0.0452 0.0039 0.202 0.197 0.19
0.0501 0.0046 0.203 0.198 0.21
0.0512 0.0047 0.202 0.199 0.21
0.0526 0.0049 0.202 0.200 0.21
0.0581 0.0057 0.202 0.201 0.22
0.0587 0.0058 0.202 0.201 0.22
0.0595 0.0060 0.204 0.201 0.23
0.0615 0.0063 0.204 0.202 0.24
0.0660 0.0070 0.204 0.203 0.25
0.0720 0.0080 0.205 0.204 0.26
0.0750 0.0085 0.204 0.205 0.26
0.0770 0.0089 0.205 0.205 0.28
0.0815 0.1000 0.209 0.206 0.29
0.0858 0.1100 0.212 0.207 0.29
CTF-4 0.0437 0.0031 0.175 0.171 0.172
0.0513 0.0040 0.177 0.174 0.19
0.0525 0.0041 0.176 0.175 0.198
0.0529 0.0043 0.180 0.175 0.198
0.0568 0.0047 0.178 0.175 0.20
0.0571 0.0048 0.180 0.175 0.204
0.0585 0.0049 0.178 0.176 0.204
0.0635 0.0056 0.179 0.177 0.215
0.0662 0.0059 0.178 0.177 0.217
0.0714 0.0066 0.178 0.178 0.225
0.0764 0.0074 0.179 0.179 0.236
0.0782 0.0077 0.180 0.179 0.240
0.0792 0.0079 0.182 0.180 0.246
0.0854 0.0088 0.181 0.180 0.252
0.0883 0.0094 0.181 0.182 0.258
0.0929 0.0101 0.182 0.182 0.266
0.1065 0.0120 0.185 0.184 0.290
CTF-5 0.0800 0.0132 0.300 0.300 0.180
0.0815 0.0148 0.320 0.300 0.199
0.100 0.0203 0.322 0.305 0.222
0.116 0.0250 0.319 0.308 0.236
0.140 0.0320 0.311 0.313 0.250
0.146 0.0350 0.317 0.313 0.262
0.152 0.0370 0.315 0.314 0.266
0.158 0.0390 0.314 0.314 0.269
0.160 0.0410 0.321 0.315 0.280
0.174 0.0455 0.317 0.315 0.286
0.182 0.0497 0.322 0.317 0.300
0.185 0.0498 0.317 0.318 0.295
0.200 0.0570 0.320 0.319 0.312
CTF-6 0.081 0.0063 0.150 0.158 0.150
0.106 0.0100 0.169 0.161 0.180
0.126 0.0135 0.164 0.163 0.210
0.135 0.0150 0.164 0.164 0.215
0.159 0.0210 0.177 0.165 0.256
0.172 0.0230 0.173 0.166 0.259
0.230 0.0340 0.167 0.168 0.287
Comparison of Groundwater estimation committee (GEC) method and

SWAT model for the estimation of groundwater recharge for waterlogged
groundwater system of Cachar, Assam using MODFLOW
Singh M.K.1 Ghosh S.2

1
Research scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar, Silchar, Assam -788010,
India; Email: mrinal_rs@civil.nits.ac.in
2
Dr., Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar, Silchar, Assam-
788010, India; Email: susmita@civil.nits.ac.in
Abstract
Groundwater recharge is a sensitive parameter for the groundwater system. In case of the
waterlogged groundwater system, groundwater recharge is more sensitive. The alluvial plain
of Cachar, Assam, India faces a waterlogging problem due to heavy rainfall, its geological
locations, and its topography. So, it is required to choose the appropriate method of
groundwater recharge estimation for the area. The GEC method and SWAT model are very
efficient methods of groundwater recharge estimation due to their salient features. The GEC
method compares the groundwater level fluctuation method and rainfall infiltration factor
method for the estimation of rainfall recharge. The SWAT model is the semi-distributed
watershed model and computes groundwater recharge for each semi-distributed area
separately. In the present study, two methodologies GEC method and SWAT model were
compared for the waterlogged alluvial groundwater system of Cachar using the groundwater
model MODFLOW. For this groundwater recharge was estimated from these two methods
separately then two groundwater models are developed using MODFLOW, the first model
contains groundwater recharge from GEC method and the second contains groundwater
recharge from SWAT model. The GEC method considers 0.20 as the rainfall infiltration factor
for the area and SWAT model output shows that the ratio of percolated water from the soil to
the aquifer to total rainfall is 0.15. The results of these two models i.e. model computed vs.
observed groundwater levels and their performance indices were compared. The performance
indices such as residual mean, absolute residual mean, maximum residual and minimum
residual for the first model are 0.90m, 0.93m, 2.1m, and 0.04m respectively and for the second
model are 0.32m, 0.66m, 1.6m and 0.06m respectively. Based on performance indices it is
concluded that the results of both models are good, but SWAT model results are better than the
GEC method due to its semi-distributed features.
Keywords: Groundwater recharge, GEC method, SWAT model, Waterlogged groundwater

system, MODFLOW
1. Introduction
Waterlogging is a critical condition for the aquifer/aquitard similar to the over-stressed

condition. Due to waterlogging lower amount of water from rainfall and other water sources is
Page 1
added into the groundwater system in compression to the normal state, it means that
groundwater recharge is lower. Due to lower groundwater recharge water ponding is occurred
in nearby lower land, which causes waterlogging in the adjacent groundwater system. If
waterlogging will be controlled more amount of water will be added to the groundwater system,
so groundwater recharge will increase. If this added water will be utilized in dry periods then
the system will again be ready to capture water in the next rainy season, therefore an
equilibrium will be established in the groundwater system. In this way, water resources can be
managed better. So, it is required proper planning and management of the waterlogged
groundwater system. Before any planning and management of the waterlogged groundwater
system, it required analysis of the system. Groundwater modeling is an efficient tool for the
analysis of the groundwater system. In the groundwater model three-dimensional finite
difference grid numerical model, MODFLOW is very popular. Groundwater recharge is a very
important component of the groundwater model. It is a critical parameter for the planning and
development of groundwater resources (Rushton, 1988; Sinha & Sharma, 1988). Computation
of groundwater recharge for the waterlogged groundwater system there is a chance of
overestimation because due to waterlogging groundwater recharge is reduced. So, it is essential
to estimate precise and distributed groundwater recharge for the waterlogged alluvial
groundwater model.
Methods used for the estimation of groundwater recharge are – (a) Direct method and (b)
Indirect method (Van der Lee & Gehrels, 1990). The direct method is the water budget method
(Maréchal et al., 2006; Singhal & Goyal, 2011). Direct methods have some limitations e.g.
Rainfall-runoff model based on hydrologic budgeting estimates potential recharge [Rainfall -
(Runoff + Evapotranspiration)] may be higher than the actual recharge (Rushton, 1988).
Indirect methods are the Water level fluctuation method (Chatterjee & Purohit, 2009; Healy &
Cook, 2002; Joshi et al., 2021; Subramani et al., 2013; Umar et al., 2008), Rainfall infiltration
factor method (Umar et al., 2008), Advance surface hydrological model e.g. Variable
infiltration capacity (VIC) model (Hossain et al., 2021), Groundwater estimation committee
(GEC) method (Gogoi, 2014; Sethi et al., 2009; Siva Prasad & Venkateswara Rao, 2018;
Tiwari et al., 2021) and Semi-distributed watershed simulation model (Singh & Shukla, 2016)
etc. The indirect method has some features e.g. Water level fluctuation method estimate actual
recharge (Hossain et al., 2021).
In these methods, the GEC method and SWAT model are very efficient due to their salient
features. The GEC method is developed by the expert committee of the department of water
resources, Government of India, first published in 1984 and further revised in 1997 and 2017.
The features of the GEC method are that it compares two methods of rainfall recharge
estimation - groundwater level fluctuation method and rainfall infiltration factor method, then
choose the appropriate one as per criteria of over-estimation. SWAT model divides the
watershed into sub-basin and the sub-basin is further physically divided into HRUs based on
land use classes, soil classes, and slope classes. Each HRUs have a unique land use class, soil
class, and slope class. In the SWAT model, all hydrological processes like groundwater
recharge is simulated individually for each HRUs is the silent feature of the SWAT model.
Several methods are available for groundwater recharge estimation, all methods have some
advantages and limitations and some uncertainty in groundwater recharge estimation.
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Therefore, multiple methods are used to remove uncertainty (De Vries & Simmers, 2002; Healy
& Cook, 2002; Scanlon et al., 2002). In the present study same methodology are followed for
the waterlogged aquifer, groundwater recharge is estimated through two methods– the GEC
method and the SWAT model and the result of these two methods are compared.
The alluvial plain of Cachar, Assam, India faces waterlogging problems due to heavy rainfall,
its geological locations, and its topography. It is required to choose the appropriate method for
groundwater recharge estimation for the waterlogged groundwater system of Cachar for any
further planning of groundwater resources. In the present study, two methodologies of
groundwater recharge computation (i) Groundwater estimation committee (GEC) method and
(ii) Semi distributed watershed simulation model (SWAT model) was compared for the
waterlogged groundwater system of Cachar using the groundwater model (MODFLOW). For
this groundwater recharge was estimated from these two methodologies separately. Finally, the
results of these two models were compared and choose the appropriate one for the study area.
2. Methodology
2.1 Study area and Data
Cachar is located in the southern part of Assam, India. Its location lies between 92 ˚ 41 ꞌ to 93
˚ 24ꞌ longitude and 24 ˚ 27 ꞌ to 25 ˚ 08 ꞌ latitude. The location map of Cachar is shown in Fig.
1. As per topography, Cachar is adjoined by hills on three sides except the west and west side
is adjoined by plain land. Therefore, the area contains both hilly terrain and plain land. For the
present study plain land of Cachar is taken as the study area as shown in Fig 2a. The study area
is the valley surrounded by hills on three sides and the Barak River flows through the valley.
As per the watershed, the study area is the sub-basin of the Barak watershed as shown in Fig.
2b, which contains six sub-basins of the watershed. The area receives heavy rainfall, the
amount is more than 300 cm in the year. Rainfall majorly occurs between April to September.
The climate of the region is sub-tropical and humid.
Figure 1 Cachar location map

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Figure 2 (a) Location of Plain land of Cachar and (b) Location of plain land of Cachar in
Barak watershed
The previous study (Shivane et. al. 1980) conducted by the CGWB, Guwahati is the base of
information about the groundwater system geology. According to these studies, groundwater
systems can be divided into two layers first layer aquitard and second layer aquifer. The
aquitard extends from the ground surface to a depth of 8 to 59 meters below ground level (mbgl)
and its extent in the river floodplain is very shallow up to 8 mbgl. The aquifer is the second
layer beneath the aquitard. Based on the extent aquifer can be classified into two groups –
shallow aquifers and deep aquifers. The Shallow aquifer exists in the river flood plain and the
deep aquifer exists in the rest portions. Shallow aquifer tapped below the aquitard to 14-42
mbgl. The deep aquifer exists in two to three strata, the first stratum existing below the aquitard
to 42-80 mbgl. From the previous study, it is observed that most of the areas are waterlogged
(Gogoi 2014), the level of groundwater lies between 1 to 3 mbgl and a rising trend is also
observed (Singh and Ghosh 2022).
Rainfall data for the computation of the groundwater recharge was taken from the Global
weather data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), U.S.A for 24 years
(Jan 1990 –Dec 2014). The hydraulic conductivity of the aquitard was estimated from field
study and lab tests in the laboratory. Hydraulic conductivity and specific storage for the aquifer
layer are taken from the previous study (Gogoi 2014). Groundwater levels data for 15 years
(2006 – 2020) at nine observation wells were taken from India Water Resources Information
System (IWRIS), Ministry of Jal Shakti, Govt. of India. DEM and Landsat images were taken
from the United States geological survey (USGS). The soil map was taken from Food and
Page 4
agriculture origination of United States (FAO) soil map.
2.2 Methods and Procedure
2.2.1 Groundwater recharge estimation using the GEC method
The groundwater estimation committee (GEC) method is used for the estimation of
groundwater resources which includes ground recharge. The GEC method considers two
components for ground recharge – rainfall recharge and recharges from other sources.
Recharge from other sources includes seepage flows from surface water sources, return flow
from irrigation, and deep percolation. Expression for the estimation of groundwater recharge
is in eq.1.
R = 𝑅𝑟 + 𝑅𝑟𝑖𝑣 + 𝑅𝑖𝑟𝑟 + 𝑅𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓 (1)
Where,
R is total groundwater recharge, 𝑅𝑟 is rainfall recharge, 𝑅𝑟𝑖𝑣 , 𝑅𝑖𝑟𝑟 , 𝑅𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑓 are seepage flow from
the river, return flow from irrigation, and seepage flow from stagnant surface water sources
(ponds, lakes etc.) respectively.
Rainfall recharge is computed separately for the monsoon and non-monsoon periods. The
rainfall recharge for the monsoon period is computed by the water level fluctuation (WLF)
method and rainfall infiltration factor (RIF) method then these two methods were compared.
There are three cases of compression concerning percentage difference (PD) between WLF and
RIF methods. If PD ≥ − 20 and < + 20%, then the estimated groundwater recharge from WLF
method is considered. If PD ≤ − 20%, then the value of 0.8 × estimated recharge from RIF
method is considered. If PD ≥ + 20%, then the value of 1.2 × estimated recharge from RIF is
considered. The non-monsoon rainfall recharge is computed by RIF method.
𝑅𝑟−𝑤𝑙𝑓 = h×𝑠𝑦 ×A (2)

𝑅𝑟−𝑟𝑖𝑓 = R×𝑅𝐼𝐹×A (3)
Where,
𝑅𝑟−𝑤𝑙𝑓 is rainfall recharge using WLF method, 𝑅𝑟−𝑟𝑖𝑓 is rainfall recharge using RIF method,
h is changing in groundwater level during monsoon, 𝑠𝑦 is specific yield, A is the area, RIF is
the rainfall infiltration factor.
In the present study for the computation of groundwater recharge by GEC method, a previous
study in the study area (Gogoi 2014) is followed. Previous study (Gogoi 2014) suggests that
monsoon rainfall recharge of the study area comes under the first case. So monsoon (Jun-Sept)
rainfall recharge is computed using RIF method and the correction factor is applied. RIF factor
of the study area is considered as 0.20, GEC 1997 recommends that for alluvial plains it varies
between 0.18-0.22. The correction factor is taken as 1.2 from the previous study (Gogoi 2014).
For the non-monsoon (Oct-May) period rainfall recharge is computed using RIF method.
Collected rainfall data from Jan 1990 to Dec 2013 is used for the computation of rainfall
recharge. After computing the rainfall recharge, recharge from other sources is summed with
the rainfall recharge to get the total groundwater recharge. Recharge from other sources for the
Page 5
study area is taken from the previous study (Gogoi 2014). The computed average monthly
groundwater recharge is shown in Table 1.
Table 1 GEC computed groundwater recharge
Month Computed groundwater recharge (mm/day)

Jan 0.12
Feb 0.38
Mar 0.47
Apr 0.88
May 2.6
Jun 3.5
Jul 3.8
Aug 3.4
Sept 2.7
Oct 1.4
Nov 0.2
Dec 0.03
2.2.2 Groundwater recharge estimation using the SWAT model
Groundwater recharge is the delayed water that enters the soil at shallow depth in the past
through the percolation and bypass flow then flow through the vadose zone and finally enters
into the aquifer. Hence, groundwater recharge is estimated based on lag time (lag time between
water exiting the soil and enter to the aquifer). The governing equation for the estimation of
the groundwater recharge is shown below in eq. 4 and eq. 5 (Neitsch et al., 2011).
𝑊𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑟𝑔,𝑖 = (1- 𝑒 −1/𝛿𝑔𝑤 ) 𝑤𝑠𝑒𝑒𝑝 + ( 𝑒 −1/𝛿𝑔𝑤 ) 𝑤𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑟𝑔,𝑖−1 (4)

𝑊𝑠𝑒𝑒𝑝 = 𝑊𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐,𝑙𝑦=𝑛 + 𝑊𝑐𝑟𝑘,𝑏𝑡𝑚 (5)
Where,
𝑊𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑟𝑔,𝑖 is the water enters into the aquifer through the seepage (as the recharge to the aquifer)
on the day i (mm), 𝛿𝑔𝑤 is the delay time of the seepage (day), 𝑊𝑠𝑒𝑒𝑝 is the amount of seepage
water on day i, 𝑤𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑟𝑔,𝑖−1 is the total amount recharge added on the previous day i-1
(mm), 𝑊𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐,𝑙𝑦=𝑛 is the water percolating out from the lowest layer of the soil, n, on the day i
(mm), 𝑊𝑐𝑟𝑘,𝑏𝑡𝑚 is the total amount of water that enters through the lower soil boundary due to
bypass flow on day i (mm).
Development of the SWAT model has the following processes – Watershed delineation, HRUs
analysis, importing the weather data, and calibration of the model. In watershed delineation,
the DEM map is imported into the model and the automatic watershed delineation tool is used
to delineate the watershed. In the HRUs analysis step, the land use map and soil map were
imported and the slope map was generated based on DEM. Then these three maps were overlaid
to create HRUs. After creating the HRUs Weather data was imported into the model. Then the
developed model was calibrated by adjusting the important watershed parameters. The
calibrated model was simulated for the given simulation period to compute the outputs (runoff,
groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, etc.) for each HRUs separately.
Page 6
The study area is the part of Barak watershed. In the study, the SWAT model is developed for
the whole Barak watershed. Processes followed in the development of the SWAT model are as
follows- At first, the DEM map of a larger area than the watershed which has a resolution of
30×30 meters was imported into the model for watershed delineation. The Watershed was
delineated using the Automatic watershed delineation tool of Arc SWAT. The delineated
watershed has 28 sub-basins are shown in Fig. 3a. After the delineation of the watershed, the
land use map, and the soil map was imported and the land slope map was generated for HRUs
analysis. In the land use map watershed is classified into five classes (Fig. 3b). In the soil map
watershed is classified into seven soil groups (Fig. 3c) according to the FAO soil map. In the
land slope map, the five classes are generated (Fig. 3d). Then land use map, soil type map, and
land slope map were overlaid to create the HRUs. In the Barak watershed, 1758 HRUs have
been created. After imposing the study area map on HRUs found that 486 HRUs lies in the
study area. After creating the HRUs weather data – rainfall, temperature, wind speed, solar
radiation, and relative humidity for 24 years (Jan 1990 to Dec 2013) were imported into the
model.
Figure 3 (a) Watershed map and its properties (b) Land use map (c) Soil map and (d) Slope
map
Page 7
The developed model required calibration of the watershed parameters. The calibrated
parameters from the previous study (Pathan & Sil, 2021) were taken for the present study as
shown in Table 2. After that calibrated model was simulated for 24 years (1990-2013) on
monthly basis. The computed groundwater recharge for all the 486 HRUs of six sub-basins of
the study area for 15 years (1999-2013) was extracted from the SWAT model output. These
outputs are converted into an average monthly of 15 years. Further, these average monthly
HRUs outputs were converted into sub-basins wise (Table 3). Results of the SWAT model
show that the average ratio of groundwater recharge to the total rainfall is 0.15.
Table 2 Calibrated watershed parameters taken from the previous study
Parameters Fitted value

CN2.mgt 67.45
ALPHA_BF.gw 0.967
GW_DELAY.GW 1.133
GWQMN.GW 85
ALPHA_ BNK .rte 18
GW_REVAP.GW 0.26
CH_N2.rte 24.166
CH_K2.rte 0.133
Table 3 SWAT computed Groundwater recharge sub-basin wise
Month Recharge Recharge Recharge Recharge Recharge Recharge

zone 1 zone 2 zone 3 zone 4 zone 5 zone 6
(mm/day) (mm/day) (mm/day) (mm/day) (mm/day) (mm/day)
Jan 0.0062 0.0025 0.0002 0.0028 0.025 0.0073
Feb 0.0015 0.0065 0.004 0.002 0.027 0.0082
Mar 0.002 0.10 0.05 0.07 0.35 0.114
Apr 0.3137 0.2057 0.97 0.2944 0.418 0.44
May 4.73 3.50 3.10 1.118 1.076 2.704
June 5.363 6.04 6.32 4.106 4.83 5.331
July 5.615 6.109 5.60 5.623 6.353 5.86
Aug 4.97 5.324 5.00 5.44 8.086 5.764
Sept 4.107 4.26 4.10 4.65 5.347 4.492
Oct 0.328 0.143 0.33 0.721 0.185 0.3414
Nov 0.0063 0.025 0.06 0.067 0.013 0.0342
Dec 0.005 0.002 0.005 0.0025 0.01 0.0049
2.2.3. Groundwater flow model development
The groundwater flow model is the mathematical representation of the groundwater system.
Governing equation for the groundwater flow through the soil in the three-dimension is
described by eq. 6 (Mays & Todd, 2005).
𝜕 𝜕ℎ 𝜕 𝜕ℎ 𝜕 𝜕ℎ 𝜕ℎ
(𝐾𝑥𝑥 𝜕𝑥 )+ 𝜕𝑦 (𝐾𝑦𝑦 𝜕𝑦)+ 𝜕𝑧 (𝐾𝑧𝑧 𝜕𝑧 )+W = 𝑆𝑠 𝜕𝑡 (6)
𝜕𝑥
Where,
Page 8
𝐾𝑥𝑥 , 𝐾𝑦𝑦 , 𝐾𝑧𝑧 are hydraulic conductivity of the soil in x, y, and z directions respectively (L/T);
h is groundwater level in the groundwater system (L); W is the external water flux per unit
volume in/out from the groundwater system, W>0 for in from the groundwater system and
W<0 for out from the groundwater system (𝑇 −1 ); 𝑆𝑠 is the specific storage of the system (𝐿−1);
t is time (T).
MODFLOW numerically solves the governing partial differential equation using the finite
difference numerical method to compute groundwater level and rate of flow in the groundwater
system (Harbaugh 2005). In MODFLOW model volumetric flux has four major components –
groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, pumping well, and boundary conditions (river
boundary, stream boundary, and general head boundary, etc.). In groundwater modeling first
conceptual groundwater model is developed then the conceptual model is calibrated and
simulated for the desired period, and after that model, the result was analyzed. In the
development of the conceptual groundwater model first study area map and groundwater
system geometry are imported into the MODFLOW model and a finite difference grid is
imposed in the study area map. Then groundwater system hydro-geologic parameters,
boundary conditions, initial conditions, groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, and wells
are imposed in the model.
A two layers conceptual groundwater model was developed. In the model, a uniform finite-
difference grid of size of 500×500 m was imposed. The first layer is considered an aquitard
having hydraulic conductivity that varies between 0.08-0.12 m/day, a constant value of 0.10
m/day is for the first layer. Specific storage of aquitard layer as taken as 0.01 m-1. The second
layer is the aquifer, hydraulic conductivity lies between 0.2-10.8 m/day and specific storage
lies between 0.00001-0.00077 m-1 is imported in the model. The specific yield for both layers
is considered 0.20 (Gogoi 2014). The observed groundwater level of Jan 2006 varies between
18.54 -24.36 meters above mean sea level (masl) was imported as the initial head in the model.
Three types of boundary conditions – No flow, General head, and River were imposed in the
model according to the study area geography (Singh and Ghosh 2022). In GHB transient head
(average seasonally groundwater level) and conductance of the adjacent area are assigned. In
the model, the River boundary (RIV) is assigned to the Barak river, which flows in the study
area. To assign river boundary seasonally observed river stages, river bottom, river cross-
sections, and river conductance were assigned in the model. River conductance for Barak river
was considered as 36-44 m2/day/m from the river upstream to the river downstream direction.
Computed evapotranspiration from the previous study (Gogoi 2014) was imported, where
evapotranspiration was computed using the Thornthwaite method.
Page 9
Figure 4 Recharge zones as per SWAT model
The developed model is calibrated and validated by importing the groundwater recharge.
Importing groundwater recharge considers two cases – first groundwater recharge computed
from the GEC method on an average monthly basis (Table 1) and second groundwater recharge
computed from the SWAT model on an average monthly basis in six zones (Table 3). These
zones (Fig. 4) are the six sub-basins of the Barak watershed in which the study area lies.
Therefore, two groundwater models are developed first containing groundwater recharge from
the GEC method and the second containing groundwater recharge from the SWAT model.
These two models were calibrated and validated separately for the 15 years (2006-2020)
simulation periods by adjusting the hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. In calibration
process residual (difference between the model computed head and observed head) is
minimized by adjusting the aquifer parameters within a specified limit. In validation
performance of the calibrated model is checked. In 15 years, 10 years is the calibration period
and 5 years is the validation period. In the present study observed groundwater level at eight
observation wells (collected data) for 15 years is taken as the observed head for the model
calibration and validation.
Page 10
3.1. Groundwater model containing groundwater recharge from the GEC method
Model calibration result is analyzed using the model computed groundwater level vs. observed
groundwater level and their statistical indices. The graph and statical indices for the calibration
period (2015) and validation period (2020) are shown in Fig. 5a and 5b respectively. Results
of calibration show that the computed groundwater levels are competed with the observed in a
fair range. Statistical indices - Residual mean (RM), Absolute residual mean (ARM),
Maximum residual (MaxR), Minimum residual (MinR), and RMS error are 0.32m, 0.59m, 1m,
0.02m, and 0.68m respectively. Results of validation show that the model computed
groundwater level fairly competed with observed and nearly equals with the calibration period.
The RM, ARM, MaxR, MinR, and RMS error for the validation period are 0.9m, 0.94m, 2.1m,
0.04m, and 1.12m respectively. The Statistical indices for validation are near equal to the
calibration period. From this, it is concluded that calibrated model characterizes the
groundwater system of the area.
Figure 5 (a) Calculated vs. observed of the model contains recharge from the GEC method
for calibration period (b) for the validation period
3.2. Groundwater model containing groundwater recharge from the SWAT model
The graph and statical indices for the calibration period (2015) and validation period (2020)
are shown in Fig. 6a and 6b respectively. The results of calibration show that the computed
groundwater levels are competed with the observed groundwater level. Statistical indices - RM,
ARM, MaxR, MinR, and RMS error are 0.14m, 0.32m, 0.75, 0.07m, and 0.38m respectively.
Results of validation show that the model computed groundwater level vs. observed
groundwater level for the validation period is fairly competed with the calibration period. The
RM, ARM, MaxR, MinR, and RMS errors are 0.32m, 0.66m, 1.6m, 0.06m, and 0.81m
respectively for the validation period. The Statistical indices for validation are nearly the same
with the calibration period. From this, it is concluded that calibrated model characterizes the
Page 11
groundwater system of the area. The calibrated aquifer parameters for the first layer- hydraulic
conductivity and specific storage are 0.12 m/day 0.02 m-1 respectively. Calibrated aquifer
parameters for the second layer- hydraulic conductivity lies between 0.2 -23.5 m/day and
specific storage lies between 0.00001 -0.0015 /day.
Figure 6 (a) Calculated vs. observed of the model containing groundwater recharge from the
SWAT model for calibration period (b) for validation period
4. Conclusions
Statistical parameters of computed vs. observed groundwater level - residual mean, absolute
residual mean, maximum residual, minimum residual and RMS error for the first model in the
validation period are 0.9m, 0.94m, 2.1m 0.04m, and 1.12m respectively and for the second
model in the validation period are 0.38m, 0.75m, 1.9m, 0.21m and 0.93m respectively. From
this, it is concluded that the performance of both methods is good but the SWAT model
performs better than the GEC method. The reason behind the better performance of the SWAT
model for groundwater recharge is its semi-distributive features. The performance of the GEC
method is also good, but poor than the SWAT model due to its lumped distribution of
groundwater recharge throughout the area. But, in compression of other lumped models, its
performance is good because it compares two indirect methods of computation of groundwater
recharge – WLF method and RIF method and chooses the appropriate one. The groundwater
recharge computed through the SWAT model can be used for better planning and management
of groundwater resources for the study area. The developed groundwater model has some
limitations due to less data sets regarding aquifer parameters and observation wells.
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to the Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar for providing
research facilities for the research work.
Page 12
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Analysis of water distribution network of the Amaha Tal area in the Sidhi
District by using EPANET
Pandey A1, Barde T2, Kale G D3 and Venkatesh J4

1
M. Tech (WRE) II Year Student (2021-22), Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar
Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, India - 395007;
Email: abhishek.0inf@gmail.com
2
M. Tech (WRE) II Year Student (2021-22), Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar
Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, India - 395007;
Email:barde.tushar98@gmail.com
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute
of Technology, Surat, India - 395007; Email: gdk@ced.svnit.ac.in
4
Research scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute
of Technology, Surat, India - 395007; Email: d21ce017@ced.svnit.ac.in
Abstract
In addition to delivering water for human usage, water distribution networks (WDNs) serve
many other purposes. The purpose of the pipe system is to deliver water with sufficient pressure
and flow. Therefore, to assess whether existing WDN is fulfilling this purpose, analysis of
WDN is necessary. In developed as well as in developing countries, EPANET has become a
preferred tool for analyzing complicated and simple WDNs. None of the reviewed studies have
performed analysis of WDN in the Amaha Tal area of the Sidhi district, Madhya Pradesh, India.
Thus, current study employed EPANET software to analyze the WDN in the Amaha Tal area
of the Sidhi district, Madhya Pradesh. The data needed for the analysis is obtained from the
Municipal Council of the Sidhi and it is utilized to determine the pressure, discharge, head
values etc at all network nodes. The overall water demand for the area in 2042 is anticipated as
20.45 MLD and WDN is examined for that year. In the network, HDPE pipes of various lengths
and diameters are employed. On the basis of results, it can be concluded that, Amaha Tal area’s
current water distribution infrastructure is capable of satisfying water demand for the year
2042.
Keywords: Sidhi, Water Distribution Network, EPANET, Gradient Method
1. Introduction
Water is one amongst the most basic needs of all living beings. There can be no life without
water. Water supply system helps in the delivery of safe drinking water with adequate pressure,
quality and quantity. Thus, a good water distribution has a significant impact on the lives of
peoples (Masum et al., 2020). A hydraulic infrastructure comprised of elements like tanks,
reservoirs, pipes, valves and pumps etc is called as water distribution system (WDS) (Ramana
et al., 2015). A real-life water distribution network (WDN) is generally an intricate system of
several nodes and links interconnected both in series and in parallel (Yang et al., 1996).
Apart from delivering water for human usage, which usually constitutes less than 2% of the
Page 1
total water volume delivered, WDNs serve a variety of other purposes. Washing, sanitation,
irrigation, and fire fighting are all performed by using piped water. The objective of a pipe
system is to provide water with sufficient pressure and flow (Mehta et al., 2015). Therefore, to
fulfil this objective design of the WDNs is necessary. Also, to assess whether existing WDN is
fulfilling the aforesaid objective, analysis of WDN is necessary.
Many studies were carried out on the topic of analysis/design of WDNs outside of India
(Henshaw and Nwaogazie, 2015; Alkali et al., 2017; Agunwamba et al., 2018; Widiarti et al.,
2020; Neamat and Gunal, 2021 etc). Similarly, many studies were carried out on the topic of
analysis/design of WDNs in India (Halagalimath et al., 2016; Hussain et al., 2017; Jadhao and
Gupta, 2018; Jain et al., 2019; Rai and Lingayat, 2021 etc).
The pressure–flow association is described by a number of empirical equations incorporated

into software packages used for network modelling (Mehta et al., 2015). Many commercial and
institutional use modelling programmes are now available. EPANET, WADISO, UNWB-
LOOP, U of K KYPIPE, and WATER are recently developed computer programs that run on
personal computers (Adeniran and Oyelowo, 2013).
The EPANET is software developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)

and it is available for common public and institutional usage and it is also a freeware. It’s not
only a freeware but it needs comparatively small computer space for functioning. The numbers
of pipes that can be analyzed in this software are limitless. In addition, the User’s Manual can
be downloaded for free to help users in understanding the software. In both, developed and
developing countries, EPANET has become a favoured tool for analysing complicated and
uncomplicated WDNs. EPANET's simulation capabilities have been used by professionals and
researchers in the design, operation, and enhancement of several water distribution network
systems (Adeniran and Oyelowo, 2013). None of the reviewed studies have performed analysis
of WDN of the Amaha Tal area in the Sidhi district, Madhya Pradesh, India. Thus, in the
present study, analysis of existing WDN of the Amaha Tal area in the Sidhi district is performed
by using EPANET software.
2.1 Study Area
The study is conducted at the Amaha Tal area of Sidhi town and municipality in the Sidhi
district of Madhya Pradesh, India (Municipal Council Sidhi). The town is located at 24.42° N,
81.88° E. It has an average elevation of 272 metres (892 feet) (Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidhi, accessed on 16/10/2021). The estimated population of the
town for the design of WDS was taken as 128780 people for the year 2042. The quantity of
water supplied to the Sidhi City at the time of design was 5.60 MLD, out of which 3.60 MLD
was supplied from the Son River and rest from the Sidhi dam (Sidhi Water Supply Scheme,
Municipal Council Sidhi).
Page 2
Figure 1 Map of the Amaha Tal area in the Sidhi town

(Source: https://www.openstreetmap.org/export#map=15/24.3960/81.8889 “Accessed on:
06/10/2021”)
2.2 Data Collection
The required data of existing WDN in the Amaha Tal area is collected from the Municipal
Council of the Sidhi City. The information about elevations of service reservoir or storage tank,
length of pipes, node-to-node pipe connectivity, pipe roughness coefficient in terms of Hazen
William's C and layout map of existing pipe distribution network (DN) of WSS is collected
from the Municipal Council Sidhi. The total length of the WDN was found to be 12584 m. The
per capita supply rate was selected as 135 lpcd. HDPE pipes were used in the system (Design
and Drawing of DN for Nagar Palika Sidhi, Municipal Council Sidhi).
The distribution system was laid in the year 2012. The OHT requirement was proposed as 33%
of the clear water requirements. After including 15% losses and fire demand, total demand for
the year 2042 was calculated as 20.45 MLD (Sidhi Water Supply Scheme, Municipal Council
Sidhi). An overhead tank is provided, which has capacity of 908 KL (Municipal Council Sidhi).
The figure 2 shows link ids of analysed WDN. A total of 117 links are present in network. The
figure 3 shows node ids of analysed WDN. A total of 117 nodes are present in network.
Page 3
Figure 2 Link ids of current analyzed network Figure 3 Node ids of current analyzed netw
network
2.3 EPANET 2.2
The EPANET software is developed by the USEPA, which is freely available on the internet
and developed for general public and educational use. It can examine an endless number of
pipes and tanks. In both developed and developing countries, EPANET has become a popular
tool for analyzing complex and simple WDNs. EPANET is a computer programme that
simulates hydraulic and water quality behavior in the pressurized pipe networks over a long
period of time. The network is comprised of nodes, pipes, pumps, valves, and storage tanks or
reservoirs. EPANET is designed as a research tool for enhancing understanding about the
movement and fate of drinking water components within the distribution systems. It can be
utilized for a wide range of applications in distribution systems investigation (Ramana et al.
2015). A hybrid node-loop methodology, also known as the Gradient method, is utilized in the
EPANET software to solve the head loss and flow continuity equations that characterize the
hydraulic state of the pipe network at a particular point in time
(https://www.microimages.com/documentation/Tutorials/Epanet2UserManual.pdf “accessed
on: 06-11-2021”).
Page 4
The following are some of the most important advantages of utilizing EPANET software in
network and distribution analysis: i) the linear technique is used to calculate network flow rates,
ii) Darcy-Weisbach or Manning’s formulae are utilized to calculate the head loss caused by
friction, iii) it accounts for minor losses caused by bends, fittings and other factors, iv) it can
also mimic demands that change over the time and v) it can also cope with a variety of demand
patterns at each node (Ramana et al. 2015).
2.4 Procedure
With the help of collected data, WDN layout for the Amaha Tal area is created in EPANET
2.2. For easier referencing, an image of a map shown in figure 1 is used as a backdrop in
EPANET 2.2. The map image is used to locate nodes and pipes and to connect them. The data
of overall demand for the area was obtained from the Municipal Council Sidhi. The software
was given inputs like pipe length and diameter, as well as the friction coefficient and other
parameters and simulation of the network was carried out.
In the present study, analysis of WDN in the Amaha Tal area of the Sidhi district, Madhya
Pradesh is carried out by using EPANET software. The necessary data for the analysis is
collected from the Municipal Council Sidhi and it was used to get the pressure and head values
at all nodes in the network. The discharges in pipes are also estimated and pressure values are
also estimated. The total water demand for the area for the year 2042 was estimated as 20.45
MLD and hence the WDN is analysed for the same year. HDPE pipes of different lengths and
diameters are used in the network. The pressure at 117 nodes is estimated and it was observed
that, pipe permits full flow continuously. It was also found that, flow and velocity of water
supplied to this zone are proper, and there are no problems related to water flow or supply.
Simulated demands, heads and pressure estimates at each node are shown in table 1. Demand
values are ranging from 0.08 LPS to 2.05 LPS while pressure head values are varying from 5.9
m to 27.39 m.
Table 1 Simulated demands, heads and pressure estimates at each node obtained from the
EPANET 2.2 software
Node ID Demand Head Pressure

(LPS) (m) (m)
J 10 1.23 305.06 22.46
J9 0.44 305.09 20.79
J 55 0.43 304.9 21.6
J 112 0.29 304.89 21.19
J 115 0.71 304.7 20.6
J 114 1.3 304.7 20.9
J 117 1.17 304.68 21.68
Page 5

(LPS) (m) (m)
J 116 0.15 304.7 21.4
J 57 0.97 304.72 21.12
J 58 1.48 304.7 20.9
J 56 0.67 304.81 21.41
J 53 0.76 305.09 27.39
J 51 2.01 305.14 21.74
J 52 0.72 305.11 23.41
J8 1.73 305.2 21.1
J 49 1.19 305.42 20.62
J 48 1.15 305.45 21.85
J 50 0.66 305.36 22.06
J 47 1.22 305.47 21.97
J 119 1.31 305.4 22
J 107 1.08 306.22 22.72
J 106 1.37 306.24 21.74
J 104 1.21 306.36 20.76
J 105 1.05 306.35 20.35
J 29 1.35 306.41 20.21
J 122 0.73 306.26 20.16
J 30 0.7 306.4 20.1
J6 1.48 305.38 21.88
J7 1.49 305.34 21.84
J 118 0.91 305.54 23.54
J5 0.85 305.57 22.27
J3 0.39 306.63 23.23
J4 1.21 305.79 22.39
J 40 1.14 306.35 22.95
J 41 1.64 305.96 21.96
J 42 1.56 305.84 20.54
J 43 1.32 305.82 20.12
J2 0.55 307.18 23.18
J 31 1.16 306.71 21.01
J1 0.31 307.58 23.28
J 11 0.64 307.08 22.08
J 76 1.13 306.88 20.68
J 77 0.56 306.88 20.38
J 83 1.77 306.57 21.87
J 82 0.53 306.62 22.42
J 78 0.35 306.71 20.61
Page 6

(LPS) (m) (m)
J 79 0.5 306.68 20.78
J 85 1.19 306.61 23.01
J 84 1.27 306.64 24.14
J 80 0.56 306.68 20.88
J 81 1.37 305.03 20.63
J 13 1.53 305.08 26.88
J 14 0.18 305.02 17.82
J 121 0.92 306.06 17.06
J 88 1.09 306.09 17.69
J 120 0.48 306.11 18.41
J 87 0.96 306.12 18.62
J 12 1.37 306.17 19.37
J 90 0.96 304.68 15.58
J 86 0.73 306.1 18
J 89 0.84 306.07 19.17
J 32 1.47 306.57 20.47
J 123 0.58 306.56 18.56
J 33 1.53 306.28 19.78
J 34 1.69 306.12 19.82
J 35 1.52 306.09 19.79
J 36 1.48 305.9 22.3
J 37 1.4 305.88 23.88
J 99 0.8 305.82 22.82
J 95 0.47 304.23 21.23
J 94 1.62 304.34 20.44
J 93 0.7 304.44 19.64
J 125 0.47 304.44 19.74
J 38 1.93 305.79 25.29
J 100 0.38 305.79 25.29
J 96 0.69 304.1 23.3
J 98 0.4 304.07 24.67
J 39 0.26 305.78 26.68
J 101 0.62 305.78 27.18
J 91 1.62 304.53 18.73
J 92 0.57 304.53 18.73
J 102 0.93 304.47 16.37
J 103 1.05 304.44 13.74
J 73 1.11 304.06 13.36
J 74 1.06 304.01 18.81
Page 7

(LPS) (m) (m)
J 75 0.64 304 20.8
J 16 0.87 304.14 16.04
J 15 0.7 304.54 17.64
J 124 0.21 304.53 16.43
J 59 0.54 303.92 19.32
J 60 2.05 303.68 18.58
J 61 0.21 303.63 18.13
J 66 1.02 303.53 15.83
J 65 0.71 303.55 13.45
J 64 1.17 303.63 15.43
J 17 0.46 303.89 14.09
J 19 1.16 303.48 9.28
J 20 0.97 303.45 9.95
J 18 0.97 303.62 10.62
J 67 1.9 303.31 10.11
J 68 0.71 303.24 11.74
J 69 0.45 303.21 14.21
J 70 0.68 303.2 15.1
J 71 0.88 303.29 11.99
J 72 1.26 303.26 13.86
J 21 1.21 303.4 12.5
J 22 0.44 303.35 10.95
J 110 0.28 303.35 11.45
J 26 1.97 302.9 5.9
J 24 0.08 303.3 13.2
J 111 0.28 303.3 10.9
J 23 1.47 303.32 12.52
J 25 1.11 303.07 7.07
J 62 1.41 303.49 19.89
J 63 0.49 303.48 19.78
J 97 1.07 304.07 24.67
J 113 0.76 304.75 21.35
Tank T1 -112.5 307.9 23.6
From the Table 2, it is observed that, flow values are ranging from 0.21 LPS to 112.5 LPS,
velocity values are varying from 0.03 m/s to 2.26 m/s and unit head loss values are ranging
from 0.01 m/km to 14.34 m/km.
Page 8
Table 2 Simulated flows, velocities, unit head loss and friction factors obtained from the
EPANET 2.2 software
Link ID Flow Velocity Unit Head loss
Friction Factor
(LPS) (m/s) (m/km)
Pipe P1 112.5 2.26 14.34 0.014
Pipe P2 55.93 1.39 6.68 0.015
Pipe P3 39.1 1.21 5.81 0.016
Pipe P4 26.29 1.03 5 0.017
Pipe P5 25.08 0.99 4.58 0.017
Pipe P6 18.45 0.73 2.59 0.017
Pipe P7 16.31 0.64 2.06 0.018
Pipe P8 14.82 0.58 1.73 0.018
Pipe P9 9.6 0.57 2.15 0.019
Pipe P10 1.23 0.16 0.32 0.024
Pipe P112 0.29 0.04 0.02 0.03
Pipe P55 7.93 0.47 1.51 0.019
Pipe P56 7.21 0.43 1.26 0.02
Pipe P113 2.77 0.36 1.42 0.021
Pipe P114 2.01 0.26 0.79 0.022
Pipe P115 0.71 0.09 0.11 0.026
Pipe P57 3.77 0.38 1.32 0.021
Pipe P58 1.48 0.19 0.45 0.023
Pipe P116 1.32 0.17 0.36 0.024
Pipe P117 1.17 0.15 0.29 0.024
Pipe P51 3.49 0.28 0.68 0.021
Pipe P52 1.48 0.15 0.23 0.024
Pipe P53 0.76 0.1 0.13 0.026
Pipe P50 0.66 0.09 0.1 0.026
Pipe P47 4.87 0.29 0.61 0.021
Pipe P48 3.65 0.22 0.36 0.022
Pipe P49 1.19 0.15 0.3 0.024
Pipe P119 1.31 0.17 0.36 0.024
Pipe P118 0.91 0.12 0.18 0.025
Pipe P107 1.08 0.14 0.25 0.025
Pipe P106 2.45 0.32 1.13 0.022
Pipe P105 1.05 0.14 0.24 0.025
Pipe P104 4.71 0.28 0.57 0.021
Pipe P29 6.76 0.4 1.12 0.02
Pipe P30 0.7 0.09 0.11 0.026
Pipe P31 16.28 0.79 3.44 0.018
Pipe P32 15.12 0.73 3 0.018
Pipe P123 0.58 0.08 0.08 0.027
Page 9

Friction Factor
(LPS) (m/s) (m/km)
Pipe P33 13.07 0.78 3.8 0.018
Pipe P122 0.73 0.09 0.12 0.026
Pipe P34 10.81 0.65 2.67 0.018
Pipe P35 8.39 0.5 1.67 0.019
Pipe P36 6.87 0.41 1.15 0.02
Pipe P37 3.59 0.29 0.71 0.021
Pipe P99 1.8 0.23 0.64 0.023
Pipe P38 2.19 0.28 0.92 0.022
Pipe P39 0.26 0.03 0.02 0.03
Pipe P100 1 0.13 0.22 0.025
Pipe P101 0.62 0.08 0.09 0.027
Pipe P96 2.16 0.28 0.9 0.022
Pipe P97 1.47 0.19 0.44 0.023
Pipe P98 0.4 0.05 0.04 0.028
Pipe P95 2.63 0.34 1.29 0.022
Pipe P94 4.25 0.55 3.15 0.02
Pipe P125 0.47 0.06 0.05 0.028
Pipe P93 5.42 0.32 0.74 0.02
Pipe P91 9.59 0.47 1.29 0.019
Pipe P92 0.57 0.07 0.08 0.027
Pipe P87 4.29 0.34 0.99 0.021
Pipe P120 0.48 0.06 0.06 0.028
Pipe P88 2.85 0.23 0.46 0.022
Pipe P89 0.84 0.11 0.16 0.026
Pipe P86 0.73 0.09 0.12 0.026
Pipe P121 0.92 0.12 0.19 0.025
Pipe P90 10.55 0.51 1.54 0.019
Pipe P40 5.66 0.45 1.65 0.02
Pipe P41 4.52 0.45 1.85 0.02
Pipe P42 2.88 0.37 1.53 0.021
Pipe P43 1.32 0.17 0.36 0.024
Pipe P11 56.26 1.74 11.39 0.015
Pipe P76 7.86 0.47 1.48 0.019
Pipe P77 0.56 0.07 0.07 0.027
Pipe P78 6.17 0.37 0.95 0.02
Pipe P79 2.33 0.23 0.54 0.022
Pipe P80 0.56 0.07 0.07 0.027
Pipe P82 3.49 0.35 1.15 0.021
Pipe P83 1.77 0.23 0.62 0.023
Pipe P85 1.19 0.15 0.3 0.024
Page 10

Friction Factor
(LPS) (m/s) (m/km)
Pipe P84 1.27 0.16 0.34 0.024
Pipe P12 47.76 1.48 8.41 0.015
Pipe P13 42.1 1.3 6.66 0.016
Pipe P14 39.2 1.21 5.83 0.016
Pipe P15 28.47 0.88 3.23 0.017
Pipe P124 0.21 0.03 0.01 0.031
Pipe P81 1.37 0.18 0.39 0.024
Pipe P102 1.98 0.2 0.4 0.023
Pipe P103 1.05 0.14 0.24 0.025
Pipe P16 27.56 0.85 3.04 0.017
Pipe P73 2.81 0.23 0.45 0.022
Pipe P74 1.7 0.17 0.3 0.023
Pipe P75 0.64 0.08 0.09 0.027
Pipe P59 4.7 0.38 1.17 0.02
Pipe P60 4.16 0.41 1.59 0.02
Pipe P61 2.11 0.27 0.86 0.022
Pipe P62 1.9 0.25 0.71 0.023
Pipe P63 0.49 0.06 0.06 0.028
Pipe P17 19.18 0.59 1.55 0.018
Pipe P18 15.82 0.49 1.09 0.018
Pipe P19 14.85 0.58 1.74 0.018
Pipe P67 3.74 0.3 0.77 0.021
Pipe P68 1.84 0.24 0.67 0.023
Pipe P69 1.13 0.15 0.27 0.024
Pipe P20 9.95 0.39 0.83 0.019
Pipe P71 2.14 0.28 0.88 0.022
Pipe P72 1.26 0.16 0.33 0.024
Pipe P21 6.84 0.27 0.41 0.02
Pipe P70 0.68 0.09 0.11 0.026
Pipe P22 5.63 0.22 0.29 0.021
Pipe P23 4.91 0.19 0.22 0.021
Pipe P24 3.44 0.14 0.12 0.022
Pipe P25 3.08 0.4 1.73 0.021
Pipe P26 1.97 0.26 0.76 0.022
Pipe P111 0.28 0.04 0.02 0.03
Pipe P110 0.28 0.04 0.02 0.03
Pipe P64 2.9 0.38 1.55 0.021
Pipe P65 1.73 0.22 0.6 0.023
Pipe P66 1.02 0.13 0.22 0.025
Page 11
4. Conclusions
After simulation of WDN at the Amaha Tal area by using EPANET software, simulation results
are obtained. Based on results, it can be concluded that, Amaha Tal area's current water
distribution infrastructure is capable of satisfying water demand for the year 2042. This supply
network’s direction of flow depends upon the hydraulic head and it is observed that, pipe allows
full flow at all the time. After analyzing the WDN of the Amaha Tal area, it was found that,
flow and velocity of water provided to this zone are appropriate, and there are no issues with
water flow or supply. Also, simulated model appears reasonably close to the real network.
Acknowledgements
Authors are thankful to Municipal Council Sidhi for providing necessary data required for the present
study.
References
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https://www.openstreetmap.org/export#map=15/24.3960/81.8889 “Accessed on: 06/10/2021”
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Page 13
Identification of Urban Flooding Hot Spot Zones in the Densely Populated

Area of Kolkata Municipal Corporation by using SWMM Model
Aman Kumar1, Sovan Sankalp2 and Renji Remesan3
1
PhD Research Scholar, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology
Kharagpur, India – 721302; Email: amankumar2598@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Centurion University of Technology
and Management, Odisha, India – 761200; Email: sankalpsovan9@gmail.com
3
Assistant Professor, School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,
India – 721302; Email: renjiremsan@sowr.ac.in
Abstract
Stormwater is a crucial component of the urban water cycle, and better management of it is
advantageous in managing the water requirements of cities and enhancing urban life in
environmental, economic, and social aspects. Nowadays India is facing urban floods more
frequently due to urbanization, increasing industrial and anthropogenic activities, and climate
change. Urban flooding can be a large-scale event in densely populated areas and can be
reduced by considering the inadequate capacity of drainage systems and in congestion of sewer
systems. This paper describes the current state of the stormwater drainage infrastructure in the
small region of Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal State, India. The primary goals of this
research are to estimate stormwater runoff and identify urban flooding hotspot zones. The
current study aims to model runoff conditions in SWMM for the historical event of 21 May,
2020 and also utilize the Kinematic wave method of flood routing and the Horton Infiltration
model. The results demonstrated SWMM's capacity to simulate and interpret flows at different
channel sections and nodes for flood mitigation. The sub-catchment S14, S16, S18, S20, S21,
S23, S24 are identified as the urban flood hot spot zones. The model has efficiently provided
catchment responses for peak flow and volume of runoff, which is one of the critical
components of urban drainage design to decrease flood risk.
Keywords: Storm Water, Green-Ampt Infiltration model, LULC, SWMM, Urban Flood
1. Introduction
Multiple environmental concerns are currently increasing in cities all over the world as a result
of climate change and continued growth. Socioeconomic and biophysical considerations have
led to disproportionate risks perceived by local populations, even within particular cities
(Krellenberg et al., 2014). Frequent natural and man-made risks are predominantly harming
Indian cities due to current trends of unplanned and haphazard growth against climate change.
Floods account for a significant percentage of all disaster-related damages and most fatalities
nationwide. Urban flooding causes severe water stress and urban flooding. Hence extreme
weather conditions and frequent urban flash floods impact the functionality and growth of
smart cities(Prudent et al., 2016). As a result of the large and dense population, habitations,
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paved surfaces, parking areas, etc. This increases the imperviousness, which shortens the
concentration-time(Sohn et al., 2020). Due to hazardous and unplanned urbanization,
ineffective drainage systems, and a lack of real-time monitoring tools, urban floods have
become disastrous (Sarmah et al., 2020). This could happen for several reasons, including
inadequate storm drain carrying capacity, solid waste blockage, incorrect storm network
planning, and changes in rainfall patterns. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct a capacity analysis
of the current storm network to pinpoint the overflow points and develop preventive and
mitigating strategies(Mahmood & Islam, 2017).
Numerous modeling software programs have been created in order to model urban floods,
including the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the Hydrologic Engineering
Centres-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), and the Hydrologic Engineering Centres-
River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), MIKE URBAN and PCSWMM (Agarwal et al., 2019,
Swarnkar et al., 2021,Shaik & Agarwal, 2019, Yalcin, 2020, Natarajan & Radhakrishnan,
2019, Bisht et al., 2016,Manchikatla & Umamahesh, 2022).
Many researchers used SWMM to design drainage systems; it also simulates the single event
dynamics or for continuous modeling. Agarwal & Kumar (2020) used the SWMM model for
the urban flood modeling for the historical 2018 event and then used it for future rainfall events
under climate changing RCP 4.5 scenario. The same model has been used by Vemula et al.,
(2019) r the study region of Hyderabad city, representing the inadequacy of runoff from the
RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 and adequacy of the stormwater network for the RCP 6.0. This model
can be used with other geospatial techniques even in data scarcity. Seenu et al., (2020) have
done the urban flood analysis using the logical combination of SWMM and 4D GIS, which can
be further used to visualize the flood inundation. Swarnkar et al., (2021) use SWMM to prevent
urban floods in the VV Vihar colony, Raipur city, Chhattisgarh, by sustainable stormwater
management. Planning and building smart cities need integrated sustainable flood management
solutions. Massive flood runoff from urban flooding could be directed, stored, and used for
other innovative city applications. The present study focuses on the identification of urban
flood hot spot zones in the highly densely populated area in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation
area i.e., ward no 34. EPA-SWMM is used for replicating the rainfall-runoff process for urban
stormwater for the historical event of 21 May, 2020.
2.1 Study Area Description
The study region is located between 22°33'54.33" and 22°33'50" North Latitude and 88°23'8.7"
and 88°23'33" East Longitude, as indicated on the location map in Fig. 1. In the 1851 square
kilometer area known as the Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA), which is habitat to 5,017,208
people, there is a region known as the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC), which is split
into 16 stormwater zones constitutes of 144 wards. Genetically diverse, Kolkata is subject to a
condition that could encourage urban floods. The climate in Kolkata is tropical wet and dry.
The monthly mean temperature ranges from 15 °C to 30 °C, with a yearly average temperature
of 26.8 °C. Between June and September, the city receives most of its 1,836.5 mm of annual
rainfall from the Bay of Bengal branch of the South-West monsoon.
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Figure 1 Location Map of the Study Area
Ward No. 34, which is a component of Borough No. III was chosen for the current study from
among the aforementioned wards. Outflow from this area goes to the Palmer Bridge Drainage
Pumping Station. The total area of ward no 34 is 97.55 hectares. It is one of the most affected
wards of borough no III.
2.2 Data Requirements
Urban flood inundation studies need a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM), a land
use and soil map, rainfall data, topographical information, channel features, and hydro-
meteorological information like evaporation and infiltration, among other things. Alos-Palsar
12.5m x 12.5 m DEM were used for the study. Data on daily rainfall were collected from the
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 41 years (1980-2020). Land use/ Land cover
maps were prepared using Sentinel-1 10m resolution. Other hydro-meteorological and channel
characteristics were collected from the Kolkata Municipal Corporation(KMC) Office, Kolkata.
In order to establish the fundamental framework of sub-catchments in SWMM, various data
types were selected and shown in Table 1. This data is essential for physically representing the
study region in SWMM with different properties. Other data is taken into account, such as
drainage maps of the study area with an appropriate drainage system (sewer lines, open
channels, etc.). With the support of the Kolkata Municipal Corporation Office, KMC,
additional data on the Invert level of sewer pipelines (dia- 300mm, 450 mm, and 1200 mm)
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that carry water to Palmer Drainage Pumping Station at the outlet.

Table 1 Details of sub-catchment of the Ward no 34
AREA
SUBCATCHMENT OUTFALL (HA) N - Imp N - Perv SLOPE (%)
Subcatchment_2 J1 2.48 0.01 0.1 2.56
Subcatchment_3 J2 1.8 0.01 0.1 3.28
Subcatchment_4 J3 1.65 0.01 0.1 3.59
Subcatchment_5 J4 3.3 0.01 0.1 3.78
Subcatchment_7 J5 2.58 0.01 0.1 2.53
Subcatchment_8 J5 3.3 0.01 0.1 3.27
Subcatchment_9 J10 1.13 0.01 0.1 2.5
Subcatchment_10 J9 3.12 0.01 0.1 3.23
Subcatchment_11 J11 2.42 0.01 0.1 1.07
Subcatchment_12 J10 2.65 0.01 0.1 2.21
Subcatchment_13 J21 4.2 0.01 0.1 2.97
Subcatchment_14 J13 3.11 0.01 0.1 2.55
Subcatchment_15 J22 3.31 0.01 0.1 2.84
Subcatchment_16 J23 6.03 0.01 0.1 3.79
Subcatchment_17 J16 2.56 0.01 0.1 4.23
Subcatchment_18 J17 5.37 0.01 0.1 4.5
Subcatchment_19 J17 2.19 0.01 0.1 3.12
Subcatchment_20 J22 1.92 0.01 0.1 3.16
Subcatchment_21 J19 1.86 0.01 0.1 2.41
Subcatchment_22 J20 5.82 0.01 0.1 2.23
Subcatchment_23 J24 5.99 0.01 0.1 1.62
Subcatchment_24 J14 1.23 0.01 0.1 2.4
Subcatchment_25 J12 5.1 0.01 0.1 2.8
Subcatchment_26 J8 2.02 0.01 0.1 2.64
Subcatchment_27 J3 1.27 0.01 0.1 3.86
2.3 Model Setup
The data obtained from the Kolkata Municipal Corporation Official site was imported in
ArcGIS 10.3. The data was obtained using a different spatial reference than that which was
used when working with ArcGIS. WGS 1984 is used as the spatial reference for all of the data.
The selected study area, i.e., ward no 34, is divided into 25 sub-catchments, each of which has
junctions, nodes, conduits, and outfalls representing storm networks. The second-largest
historical rainfall event of the Kolkata region in a 41-year time series, which consists of the
highest daily peak rainfall, is 21 May, 2020 and get selected for the model to run. Horton
method is used for Infiltration analysis, while the Kinematic wave method is used for flow
routing assessment of the catchment.
The study area Storm network map has been extracted using photos from the KMC office and
Google Earth Pro, and it has been loaded in SWMM using the load image option. In SWMM,
the Storm network map layout is discretized to provide a schematic of the study area. After
discretizing the study area into 25 sub-catchments, data of different sub-catchment
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characteristics, including the area, width, slope, Mannings N for the impervious area(N-Imp),
Mannings N for the pervious area (N-Perv), and other important parameters are given. Input
parameters for conduits include their dimension, depth, shape, and roughness, whereas, for
junctions, criteria such as invert elevation and maximum depth are taken into consideration.
The flow chart in Figure 2 illustrates the sequence of actions that the SWMM model-building
process performs on various datasets. In order to show the drainage system, all the buildings in
SWMM are first created, and then various nodes are built to represent drainage through each
distinct sub-catchment. Conduits then connect these nodes. As a result, SWMM includes a
well-described schematic representation of the study area and all the necessary components to
predict urban flooding. Time Series, Profile, and Scatter plots provide visual representations of
the model's output.
Figure 2 Work Methodology adopted to find the urban flood hot spots.
The study area drawn in SWMM according to the drainage lines drawings is shown in Figure
3. It has a Rain Gauge station, 25 sub-catchments connected by 21 nodes, 27 conduits, and an
outlet. The runoff produced by each sub-catchment contributes to several nodes that are linked
by conduit networks.
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Figure 3 Discretized Sub-catchments of Ward no 34 in SWMM.
The research area has been divided into 25 different sub-catchments, each of which is planned
with sewage lines and contains conduits and intermediate junctions with the appropriate slope.
It has been noted that the runoff for the extreme rainfall event on May 21, 2020, was
appropriately created using SWMM. The study, which has been done since, has made an effort
to ascertain the maximum runoff of each sub-catchment. In Fig. 4, the runoff produced from
the main sub-catchments of the study region during the rainfall events of May 21, 2020, is
depicted. We can examine the Rainfall-Runoff relationship of the sub-catchments concerning
different rainfall events from these hydrographs. Shaik & Agarwal, (2019) noted that rainfall
events with higher rainfall intensities had the largest runoff peaks and peak times for the
extreme rainfall events and evaluated the drainage systems' accuracy.
It is a method that uses graphical analysis to understand the relative behavior of every variable
in a set of information. Another useful graphical summary of the data is provided by profile
plots, one of the efficient methods for data analysis. Figure 6 provides a profile plot for the
water elevation from Node J1 to Node O1. Since the height of the sub-catchments is higher
than the conduit's mean water level, it can be seen from the Profile Plot that the conduit's
elevation increases from RL 2.5 m to RL 2.8 m as the distance from the sub-catchments to the
outlet increases.
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Figure 4 Profile Plot for Water Elevation between J1 to O1 outfall node
The node depths at various sections are displayed in Table 2, which contributes to
understanding the average flow depth, maximum depth, and maximum hydraulic gradient
line(HGL). HGL is equal to the sum of the piezometric head and the datum head of the water
surface profiles. This complete information helps us select reduced node levels for maintaining
the proper flow at appropriate slopes in the various conduit networks.
Table 2 Node depth at various sections

Average
Depth Maximum Maximum
Node (m) Depth (m) HGL (m)
J1 0.15 0.2 2.7
J10 0.27 2 2.3
J11 0.26 0.3 2.3
J13 0.73 2.1 2.7
J12 0.15 0.3 2.3
J14 0.59 1.75 2.6
J15 0.22 0.3 2.9
J16 0.21 0.3 2.94
J17 0.3 1.5 2.95
J19 0.28 0.5 2.7
J2 0.18 0.3 2.78
J21 0.72 0.8 2.8
J22 0.73 1.6 2.7
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J23 0.3 0.45 3.15

J24 0.65 0.9 2
J3 0.21 0.3 2.6
J4 0.21 0.3 2.68
J5 0.24 1.9 2.52
J6 0.71 0.8 2.8
J7 0.69 0.8 2.8
J8 0.35 2 2.65
J9 0.26 0.3 2.3
O1 0.59 0.8 2.3
Link flows at different sections, which include maximum flow, duration of maximum flow,
maximum flow velocity, entire flow, and depths, can also be depicted. Figure 5 shows the total
maximum flooding at the different nodes and maximum flow in the links along with the urban
flood hot spot zones. It indicates that the conduits C23, C24, C28, C12, C16, C26, and C27
show the maximum flooding, and sub-catchment areas S14, S16, S18, S20, S21, S23, S24
adjacent to these conduits are identified as the urban flooding hot spot zones.
Figure 5 Node maximum flooding and Link maximum flow toward the outlet.
These details are mostly desired for planning and developing various conduit networks. It also
assists in maintaining conduits of the proper size and cross-section to quickly meet the flow
needs during urban flood situations.
4. Conclusions
The case study conducted for this research study has demonstrated that SWMM is a good
choice for managing urban flood situations. Due to its result interpretation approaches, which
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include scatter plots, time series, and water profiles at different cross sections, it is a great tool
for simulating urban flooding and is regarded as being extremely user-friendly. It provides the
option to add a backdrop image, which helps in setting up a schematic view for sub-catchment
discretization. Different input factors, such as an area's imperviousness and perviousness, as
well as its roughness coefficients, might affect the dynamic capabilities of an urban
environment. SWMM offers the ability to display case flows at various nodes, conduits, and
channel cross-sections for flood mitigation scenarios. From our results, we can conclude that
junction node J23. J17, J14, J22, J13 , J21, J8 and J5 show the maximum flow condition. While
conduit link C23, C24, C28, C12, C16, C26, and C27 show the maximum flooding. The sub-
catchment area S14, S16, S18, S20, S21, S23, S24 adjacent to the links are identified as the hot
spot zones for the urban flooding.For more accurate results, the SWMM Parameters need to be
calibrated. It is believed that combining SWMM and GIS will produce a helpful and time-
saving tool for modeling large catchments. SWMM applicability offers peak flow runoff and
runoff volume, which are essential considerations for urban drainage design. Low-impact
development approaches can be used with the combination of SWMM to reduce the peak
runoff and the concentration time. 1D-2D modeling can be done to extend this work by using
high-resolution DEM. The conduit slope and its size and roughness affect the flow through the
channels.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the drainage information support received from the Kolkata Municipal
Corporation (KMC) Office, Kolkata, India to carry out the present work. The authors are also thankful
to India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the necessary data to conduct the present
study.
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Field Study of 3-Dimensional Flow Characteristics at a River Bend using
Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler
Ahmed, S.S.1, Barbhuiya A.K.2, Ghosh S.3

1
Research Scholar, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, INDIA – 788010; Email:
sadullasayed@gmail.com
2
Dr., Professor, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, INDIA – 788010; Email:
akbarbhuiya@yahoo.com
3
Dr., Assistant Professor, National Institute of Technology ,Silchar, INDIA – 788010; Email:
susmita@civil.nits.ac.in
Abstract
Measurement of river discharge and flow field data is an important aspect of surface-water
activities. In the present study, discharge and flow field measurements were carried out at a
meandering bend of Barak River at Annapurna Ghat near Silchar town, Assam (India). The field
measurements were done using Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at nine sections of
different bend angles of the river meander. ADCP provided a clear picture of water current
variation as well as river bed profile across a transect. The measured data provided the variation
of transverse slope in the bend. The measured data are also used to determine the vertical
velocity profile at different locations along transects to check the effect of the relative curvature
of the meandering bend. Detailed flow field study is useful for designing protective measures
(e.g. spur, barb, submerged vanes), navigation and sediment transport model. Moreover, the
discharge measurement is very important for planning water resources projects including the
assessment of water available for irrigation, industrial and drinking purpose at the downstream.
Keywords: Acoustic Techniques, River bend, Bed morphology, Velocity, Discharge.
1. Introduction
The characteristics of river flow influence bed morphology as well as riverine habitats which
have been increasingly interest of research in the recent years as requirement of hydraulic
structure construction and restoration of river (Koljonen et. al. 2012) or pollutant flux (Demuren
and Rodi 1986). In meandering river, due to continuous changes in radius of curvature the three
dimensional flow pattern becomes much complex and challenging. At meandering, the flow
velocity distribution is non-uniform in both longitudinal and transverse direction (Dietrich and
Smith 1983; Kasvi et. al. 2013) which governs the bed morphology (Kostaschuk et. al. 2005). An
accurate and high resolution spatial flow data deserves for hydraulic investigations. In the last
decades of 19th century, the Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) were used for accurate
flow measurements (Gordon, 1989) which is now wide spread method for river survey (Yorke
and Oberg 2002; Shields et al. 2003; Shields and Rigby 2005). The ADCP provides flow data
using acoustic phenomenon called Doppler effect (Muste et. al. 2004) which is can be used for
analysis using different tools (Gunawan et. al. 2011).
Proper study of the velocity distribution is essential to determine the energy expenditure, bed
shear stress distribution and the associated heat and mass transport. The spatial distribution of
velocity and the bed shear stress are needed for river training works (Bridge and Jarvis 1977,
1982). Determining the distribution of shear stress along a river bend has been a significant
interest of research (Dietrich and Smith 1984; Dietrich and Whiting 1989; Petit 1990).
Experimental Studies show that the position of maximum velocity occurs at little below the
water surface in the vertical distribution of velocity profile. One of the reasons of this
phenomenon is the secondary currents at the bend (Afzalimehr and Singh 2009). Collection of
river data obtained by current-meter made from boats at numerous data-collection sites is time
consuming, costly and potentially hazardous (e.g., Smith and McLean 1977; Kostaschuk and
Villard 1996). The recent development of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), however,
provides high-resolution three-dimensional velocity profiles and bed morphology from a moving
boat at low risk with less manual effort and time.
This paper aims to measure and analyze three dimensional flow characteristics at a natural
river meander. The analysis will be focused on effect of meander on the velocity components,
vertical velocity profile along transects.
2.1 Study Area
The field study has been carried out at Barak River of Southern Assam. The river flows through
valley region of Assam called Barak Valley. Barak valley is full of fertile agricultural lands in
the both banks of the river. It flows through agricultural lands and nearby many residential area
and some towns also. Silchar (24.8333° N, 92.7789° E) is the biggest town grown on the bank of
Barak River. In the Barak valley within Assam, the river is low to high meandering in nature
(Nath and Ghosh, 2022). The width of the river varies from 100 m to 250 m and the bed gradient
varies in the range of 1:10,000 to 1:20,000 (Ahmed and Barbhuiya, 2016). A meandering bend of
Barak River at Annapurna Ghat, near Silchar town (Figure 1) has been selected for the study. At
this place river makes almost a semicircular bend which attracted to select the location of study.
The measurements have been carried out with a 3MHz M9 ADCP at 9 transect at the bend at
different bend angle (Figure 1).
Figure 1 The measurement location from Google map and Google earth. The corresponding
numerical digit indicate the transect number.
A high-resolution, multi-beam sounding system called Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler

(ADCP) was used for data collection. The depths of flow and velocity distributions were
measured from a moving boat deploying ADCP. The ADCP has 500 kHz vertical echo sounder
which provides flow depth and 3 MHz transducers to provide velocity profiles. The ADCP
transducers are designed to generate a narrow beam of sound of known frequency and receive
the same after reflection from particles in the water. ADCP provides measurement from the
changes in the frequency of sound. As sound ping generates with time, the cross-section divides
into several bins and provides data at each depth cells (Figure 2). The size of bins is very small
as compared to cross-section and so seems like continuous section with variation of colour
indicating variation of velocity (Figure 3). The 3 dimensional velocity components can be
extracted for post processing of flow field with different tools. The resultant velocity at any point
of flow field is termed as velocity (or speed) of water at that point and calculated using Equation
1. The cross-sectional average velocity (U) can be obtained dividing discharge by cross-sectional
area provided by the ADCP.
(1)
Figure 2 The depth cells or bins in the ADCP data collection cross-section.
Figure 3 The typical graphics of ADCP data collection cross-section.
The Barak River at Annapurna Ghat makes nearly a semi-circular bend. The measured sections
were designated with its geometric angular locations for research point of view (figure 4). From
the survey, river bed morphology, Discharge, velocity distributions were observed to check the
effect of meander in the parameters.
Figure 4 Geometric angular locations of different measured sections
3.1 Velocity and Discharge Summary
The river survey of nine transects measured at the bend of Barak River near Annapurna Ghat has
been summarised (Table 1). In the table 1, the locations of each transect was referred from the
figure 1. The standard deviation of total discharge for all nine transects is estimated as 3.293
cumec which indicates a quite satisfactory results for the measurement.
Table 1 Velocity and discharge measurement summery measured using ADCP.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Cross
Width of Cross Boat
Transect Angular sectionally Total Q
river cross- sectional Speed
Location Position average (m3/s)
section (m) Area (m2) (m/s)
velocity (m/s)
1 200 155.07 273.71 0.510 0.261 139.51

2 380 183.21 1104.29 0.127 0.267 140.17
3 550 154.05 1025.80 0.139 0.263 142.59
4 640 157.47 991.02 0.142 0.394 140.67
5 740 113.36 294.32 0.472 0.266 138.79
6 850 129.25 287.91 0.474 0.126 136.47
7 980 100.51 696.40 0.191 0.324 132.76
8 1120 137.86 446.57 0.302 0.282 134.74
9 1220 103.86 695.92 0.204 0.247 141.71
Mean 137.182 646.217 0.285 0.270 138.601

Standard Deviation 27.885 337.015 0.160 0.071 3.293
COV 0.203 0.522 0.561 0.261 0.024
3.2 Bed Morphology and Velocity Patterns
The surveyed meandering river reach is almost semi-circular and measurements have been done
at nine different bend angle (Figure 4). The bed profile and velocity field at different transects
are shown in figures 5. The track measurement starts from 0 from either left or right bank of the
river from which the measurement started. The different colours show the velocity variation at
different locations. The range of velocity (or speed of flow) variation is showed in the legend of
each figure. The left side of all graphs in the figure 5 represents the inner bank and the right side
represents the outer bank of the river bend. It is observed that depth is more in the outer side
than inner side of the meander. The transect 1 is in relatively straight and depth variation is less
and velocity variation is uniform through-out the transect. Depth and velocity has increased
gradually in the outer bank side in the remaining transects.
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 5(a) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 1
Figure 5(b) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 2
Figure 5(c) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 3
Figure 5(d) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 4
Figure 5(e) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 5
Figure 5(f) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 6
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Figure 2(g) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 7
Figure 5(h) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 8
Figure 5(i) Velocity variation through-out the Transect 9
The distribution of velocity in the river cross-section is not uniform. The phenomenon is
because of the presence of free surface in the atmosphere and friction opposing the flow
along the channel bed and side. Also the presence of corner of rough boundaries and bends in
the channel affect the velocity vector of the flow and compelled to have velocity components
in the transverse as well as vertical direction of flow along with the longitudinal direction
component (Figure 6). It has been observed that the vertical component of flow velocity is the
least of all three components (Vx, Vy, Vz) and value is very small, but the secondary
component (Vy) is relatively high and comparable to longitudinal component in all the
transects. The distribution of secondary velocity (Vy) in all the transects at the river bend have
been shown in the figure 6. The other components of velocity have not been attached because
of limited space.
Figure 6(i) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 1
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Figure 6(ii) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 2
Figure 6(iii) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 3
Figure 6(iv) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 4
Figure 6(v) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 5
Figure 6(vi) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 6
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Figure 6(vii) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 7
Figure 6(viii) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 8
Figure 6(ix) Secondary velocity (Vy) variation through-out the Transect 9
According to Chow (1973), the maximum velocity in natural channel usually observed below
free surface at distance of 0.05 to 0.25 times of depth. However, Chow further stated that the
maximum velocity may often occur at the free surface in case of rapid, broad and shallow
streams or in a smooth channel. The roughness of the channel causes the deflection at vertical
velocity distribution curve from its ideal distribution. At meander, the velocity increases on
the outer side due to centrifugal force which leads the secondary velocity component
significantly high (Blankaert and Graf, 2004).The present study reflects the phenomenon
(Figure 6).
The ADCP provided velocity data at different depths in the river cross-section have
been plotted at an interval of 20 meter through-out the transect (figure 7). The track width
and depth is normalized, divided by the river width (W). From the figure 7, it is observed that
relatively low velocity zones near the boundaries and a high velocity zone near water surface.
The maximum velocity, in the vertical distribution, occurs below the free surface of water at
most of the locations. The non-uniform bed and the centrifugal force acting through the
centre of water mass is responsible this phenomena. From the 3-dimensional velocity analysis
it has been observed that the secondary velocity component (Vy) is high and a governing
factor for shaping the vertical velocity profile (Figure 8). The secondary velocity component
(Vy) also causes the erosion at the convex side of the river and makes the cross-section
triangular shape (Figure 5(vi) and Figure 5(vi)). The transect-1 is in relatively straight and so
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December 22 -24, 2022
the depth variation is less and almost trapezoidal in shape. In the later sections of the bend
depth increases towards outer direction and makes triangular shape in the apex.
River Bed
0.03 V20
0 U
V40
Depth
0.02
V60
0.01 V80
V100
0 V120
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 V140
Track scale
Figure 7(i) Velocity variation with depth through-out the transect 1 at 20m interval (River
width, W=155.07m). In the legend v20 represents the velocity curve of respective colour. In
scale U=0.51 m/s.
0.1 River Bed

0 U v20
Depth
0.05 v40
v60
v80
0 v100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 v120
Track v140
Figure 7(ii) Velocity variation with depth through-out the transect 2 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.127 m/s.
0.15 River Bed

0 U v20
Depth
0.1 v40
v60
0.05 v80
0 v100
v120
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
v140
Track Scale
Figure 7(iii) Velocity variation with depth through-out the transect 3 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.139 m/s.
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December 22 -24, 2022
0.1 v20
0 U v40
Depth
v60
0.05 v80
v100
0 v120
v140
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 River Bed
Track Scale
Figure 7(iv) Velocity variation with depth through-out the section 4 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.421 m/s.
0.06 v20
0 U v40
Depth
0.04
v60
0.02 v80
v100
0 River Bed
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Scale
Track
Figure 7(v) Velocity variation with depth through-out the transect 5 at 20m interval at 740
bend (River width, W=113.36m). In the legend v20 represents the velocity curve of respective
colour. In scale U=0.472 m/s.
0.06 River Bed

0 U v20
0.04
Depth
v40
v60
0.02
v80
0 v100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 v120
Track Scale
Figure 7(vi) Velocity variation with depth through-out the transect 6 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.474 m/s.
0.15 0 U v20
Depth
0.1 v40
0.05 v60
v80
0 v100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 River Bed
Track Scale
Figure 7(vii) Velocity variation with depth through-out the section 7 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.191 m/s.
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December 22 -24, 2022
0.06
0 U River Bed
0.04 v20
Depth
v40
0.02 v60
v80
0 v100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 v120
Track Scale
Figure 7(viii) Velocity variation with depth through-out the section 8 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.302 m/s.
0.16 U
0 v20
0.12 v40
Depth
0.08 v60
0.04 v80
v100
0
River Bed
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Scale
Track
Figure 7(ix) Velocity variation with depth through-out the section 9 at 20m interval (River
scale U=0.204 m/s.
Velocity (m/s)
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0
Depth from water surface (m)
0.2
0.4 Vx
Vy
0.6 Vz
V
0.8
1.2
1.4
Figure 8(a) Velocity components with their resultant velocity at 20m track of transect-2
Page 12
December 22 -24, 2022
Velocity (m/s)
-0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0
0.5
Depth from water surface (m)
1
Vx
1.5 Vy
Vz
2 V
2.5
3.5
Figure 8(b) Velocity components with their resultant velocity at 40m track of transect-2
4. Conclusions
The use of ADCP is significantly advantageous as compared to earlier traditional single-point

current meters for the measurement of velocity and bed morphology in natural steams.
Firstly, the ADCP works using acoustic technology and it can be operated from a moving
boat which eliminates the need of anchoring the vessel in often hazardous streams, a
procedure for single point current-meters. Secondly, the ADCP provides the distribution of
three-dimensional velocity components along with the speed at any point which are useful to
describe the flow structure. This componential velocity measurement is simply not possible
with stationary point current meters that require continuous repositioning of the current-meter
at different depth of flow and re-anchoring of vessel at different locations.
The limitation of use an ADCP is the measurement of velocity near the channel bed. Due
to presence of excess sediment or other contaminations near the bed, it fail to capture the
local velocity variation adequately which leads to loss of data of that region. A single point
current-meter with a compass may provide better measurements in near bed and lee sides
though accurate positioning in the lee sides may be difficult.
The experimental survey with ADCP at the river bend was useful get the intensity of
velocity components at different depths at different bend angles. The 3-dimensional velocity
analysis also gives an idea of weight-age of different components in the resultant velocity at
any point. The plot of vertical velocity distribution from the different depth cell velocity data
gives a check for the log-law of velocity distribution of open channel flow. Proper velocity
Page 13
December 22 -24, 2022
measurement may be used in the computation of shear velocity which is useful in the analysis
of erosion and deposition and sediment transport. A computation of near bed shear velocity
with the secondary velocity component will be a measure of erosion in the outer bank of
meandering river and will be helpful in the designing of counter measure of river migration
and restoration works.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to Civil Engineering Department, National Institute of Silchar, for providing
all the facilities for the conduction of field experiment at the Barak River.
Notations
The following symbols are used in this technical note:

A=Cross-sectional area of river (m2)
COV= Co-efficient Of Variation
Q= Discharge of river (cumec)
U = Cross-sectional average velocity of water (Q/A)
V = resultant velocity of water at a point (m/s);
Vx = longitudinal velocity component of water at a point (m/s);
Vy = transverse or secondary velocity component of water at a point (m/s);
Vz = vertical velocity component of water at a point (m/s);
W= river width (m)
References
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and Shear Velocity in Cobble-Bed Channels. J. Hydrol. Eng. 2009.14:1126-1135.
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000105.
2. Ahmed, S. S., & Barbhuiya, A. K. (2016). “Estimation of the Dispersion Coefficient
with Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at Barak River”. Journal of Civil
Engineering and Environmental Technology. p-ISSN: 2349-8404; e-ISSN: 2349-
879X; Volume 3, Issue 7; April-June, 2016, pp. 675-678© Krishi Sanskriti
Publications. http://www.krishisanskriti.org/Publication.html
3. Blanckaert K. and Graf W.H. (2004). Momentum Transport in Sharp Open-Channel
Bends. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering © ASCE / March 2004. DOI:
10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2004)130:3(186).
4. Bridge, J. S., and Jarvis, J. (1977). “Velocity profiles and bed shear stress over
various bed configurations in a river bend.” Earth Surf. Processes, 2, 281–294.
5. Bridge, J. S., and Jarvis, J. (1982). “The dynamics of a river bend: A study in flow
and sedimentary processes.” Sedimentology, 29, 499–541.
6. Chow, V. T. (1973). Open channel hydraulics, McGraw-Hill, New York.
7. Demuren, A.; Rodi, W. Calculation of flow and pollutant dispersion in meandering
channels. J. Fluid Mech. 1986, 172, 63–92.
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8. Dietrich, W.E.; Smith, J.D. Influence of the point bar on flow through curved
channels. Water Resour. Res. 1983, 19, 1173–1192.
9. Dietrich, W. E., and Smith, J. D. (1984). “Bed load transport in a river meander.”
Water Resour. Res., 20, 1355–1380.
10. Dietrich, W. E., and Whiting, P. J. (1989). “Boundary shear stress and sediment
transport in river meanders of sand and gravel.” River meandering, S. Ikeda, and G.
Parker, eds., American Geophysical Union Water Resources Monograph 12,
Washington, D.C., 1–50.
11. Gordon, R.L. Acoustic measurement of River Discharge. J. Hydraul. Eng.
1989.115:925-936.
12. Gunawan, B.; Neary, V.S.; McNutt, J. ORNL ADV Post-Processing Guide and
MATLAB Algorithms for MHK Site Flow and Turbulence Analysis; ORNL/TML-
2011/338; Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Oak Ridge, TN, USA, September 2011.
13. Kasvi, E.; Vaaja, M.; Alho, P.; Hyyppä, H.; Hyyppä, J.; Kaartinen, H.; Kukko, A.
Morphological changes on meander point bars associated with flow structure at
different discharges. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 2013, 38, 577–590.
14. Koljonen, S.; Huusko, A.; Mäki-Petäys, A.; Louhi, P.; Muotka, T. Assessing habitat
suitability for juvenile Atlantic salmon in relation to in-stream restoration and
discharge variability. Restor. Ecol. 2012, 21, 344–352.
15. Kostaschuk, R. A., and Villard, P. V. (1996). ‘‘Flow and sediment transport over
large subaqueous dunes: Fraser River, Canada.’’ Sedimentology, 43, 849–863.
16. Kostaschuk, R.; Best, J.; Villard, P.; Peakall, J.; Franklin, M. Measuring flow velocity
and sediment transport with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. Geomorphology
2005, 68, 25–37.
17. Muste, M.; Yu, K.; Spasojevic, M. Practical aspects of ADCP data use for
quantification of mean river flow characteristics; Part I: Moving-vessel
measurements. Flow Meas. Instrum. 2004, 15, 1–16.
18. Nath A. & Ghosh S. (2022). “Meandering rivers’ morphological changes analysis and
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current profilers to describe velocity distributions at the reach scale. JAWRA J. Am.
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acoustic Doppler current profiler. Environ. Manag. 2005, 36, 565–575.
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Assessment of planform changes of a natural stream using satellite imagery

A. Khan1, B. Pradhan2, A. Mondal3, P.P. Pradhan4, K. K. Khatua4
1
M. Tech Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela
769008, INDIA
2
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela-
769008, INDIA
3
M. Tech Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela-
769008, INDIA
4
M. Tech Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela-
769008, INDIA
4
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela-
769008, INDIA
Email: khan.ajhar148@gmail.com
Abstract
Planform change is a naturally occurring autogenic phenomenon for rivers that is caused by
large discharge volumes, heavy sediment loads, the kind of stream (perennial or seasonal), as
well as geography and the anthropology of the regime moving through. The natural
geomorphologic dynamic behavior of rivers is accelerated by anthropogenic development of
the basin, such as building a multifunctional hydropower dam, building irrigation
infrastructure, and changing how land is used to accommodate rising population demand.
Using Landsat data of 2017 and 2021, the spatial-temporal variations in the planform of a
natural stream have been examined in this study. Using ArcGIS, it has been calculated how
the study reach's planform changes, area of erosion and deposition, river width. Under the
combined influence of the fluvial process and human interventions, the stream has been going
through substantial morphological changes.
Keywords: Planform, Natural stream, Erosion & Deposition, GIS technique
1. Introduction
A River is an essential part of the environment we live. Study of the behaviour of a river
provides importance to wide variety of concerns, like flood control and water resource
development to recreation. Erosion and accretion are very common to most of the rivers in
the world nowadays, which is occurring due to various natural and human activities. Excess
of turbulence, slope of the river, streamflow, bed, and side resistance capacity are the natural
causes of most of the meandering rivers. Human activities also affect the river morphology
by constructing a dam, settlement and adopting faulty agricultural practices etc. In alluvial
planes, a meander of river consists of several consecutive curves connected with short
straight stretches crossing. In a plan view, the appearance of a reach describes the pattern of a
river. Based on a plan view of a major river, the pattern of a river reach is broadly categorized
into three patterns such as straight, braided and meandering. A straight river follows almost a
straight-line course. A meandering channel follows a sinuous course of Y-shaped or U-
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
shaped, consists of alternating bends. Generally, braided rivers are formed due to poorly
defined unstable banks.
Mahanadi is a major sedimentary basin located along the east coast of India. It extends over
an area of 141,589 km2, which is nearly 4.3% of total geographical area of the country.
Mahanadi River rises from the Raipur district of Chhattisgarh state and flows about 851 km
before it merges the Bay of Bengal. The coastal geomorphic province is drained by the
Mahanadi River system (Mahanadi, Brahmani, Baitarani and Dhamara Rivers) with a
sediment load to the basin of the order of 7.10×109 kg/w Due to more pronounced deltaic
activity during the mid-late Miocene period, a wider continental shelf evolved in the
Mahanadi Basin. All the major rivers of India viz. Ganges, Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna, and
Cauvery are attributed to the initial rifting of the Gondwanaland and the subsequent motions
of the Indian plate, which presently subducts along the Andaman–Nicobar–Sumatra Arc and
enjoys a convergent setup. The study of the deltas of these major rivers helps in
understanding the Indian plate motions and the associated effects.
This study focuses on the morphological parameters like erosion and accretion. These
parameters are very useful for river coast study. Erosion is the quantity which can be defined
by the amount of sediment which is being eroded or taken away from the coastal region. Due
to erosion the population nearby to the coast of the river is under threat of floods and water
logging. Erosion is basically the geological process in which earthen materials are worn away
and transported by natural forces such as wind or water. Now accretion natural, slow, and
almost imperceptible deposit of soil by the water is known as accretion.
Fig 1
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December 22 -24, 2022
2. Study Area
Rivers in Odisha are ephemeral and east flowing. Among six major deltas Mahanadi is the
largest. This delta has undergone several paleo-climatic changes from pre-Cambrian age till
date. It has coastal length of 150 km and spread an area of 9500 km2. The distributaries of
Mahanadi have developed number of anabranches and anatomised in its costal stretch. Study
area here is Reach of Mahanadi on the north of Cuttack city at location (20.5180, 85.8046) of
Odisha state in India. The river reach has been taken from Mundali bridge
(20.45098852791143, 85.73870680010052) till Andesahi (20.483640053479476,
85.95213681243055) to measure the planform changes, erosion, and accretion along the
Mahanadi. It is total 25.05 km length.
Fig 2
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December 22 -24, 2022
3. Data collection
Data collected from Hydrosheds and ESRI platform provided by sentinel 2 an ESA
space program was analyzed to get the erosion and accretion along the Mahanadi River
around Cuttack city. To get the erosion and accretion we first need to get the LULC map of
the river then we need to extract the river from the LULC map. After extraction we need to
calculate the required area from attribute table. After collecting the Land use and Land cover
maps from ESRI it was processed in ArcGIS 10.4 as the following diagram depicts.
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
4. Methodology
Satellite images for years 2017 and 2021 have been processed to obtain the required
information about the study area. The following fig 1 describes the preparation of satellite
images for information extraction.
Fig. 4
The following Land use/Land cover maps in Fig. 5 were prepared for further extraction of the
study area and calculation of the Unchanged area.
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December 22 -24, 2022
LULC map for 2017
LULC map of 2021
Fig 5
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
Now from these Land use/Land cover images river area was selected for specified year and
area was calculated for the year 2017 and 2021. After calculating the area, the unchanged
area was generated. Generation of unchanged area helps to calculate the erosion and accretion
as per the formulas specified below.
Fig 6 shows the process after generating the LULC map for the study area
CALCULATING
RASTER TO SELECTING THE AREA FOR
LULC MAP
POLYGON THE RIVER SPECIFIED
YEAR
Fig 6
Now for Erosion and accretion following formulas are applied
Erosion = Area of previous year – Unchanged area
Accretion = Area of next year – Unchanged area
The Bankline shifting due to erosion and accretion for the Mahanadi River for 2017 and 2021
are shown in the figure. This figure shows a considerable movement of both Banklines
resulted from accretion (“riverward”) as well as erosion (“landward”) between 2017 and
2021. From Table 1 and Fig 7., it seems that overall, the left bank was more prone to erosion
than to accretion, while the opposite happened to the right bank. Total erosion calculated was
39884.37 ha and accretion were 210179.62. The figure shows the Unchanged area in yellow
colour during the 5year period. Erosion is occurring mainly at Mundamuhun (20.4498,
85.8521) area of southern Cuttack. Accretion is mainly occurring at Gopinathpur (20.4786,
85.9474) area of northern eastern part of Cuttack city.
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December 22 -24, 2022
Fig 7
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
Previous 5 Next 5 Unchanged

Year years(ha) years(ha) area(ha) Erosion(ha) Accretion(ha)
2017-2021 1841629.01 2011924.25 1801744.63 39884.37 210179.62
Table 1
6. Conclusions
The area which is under threat because of the erosion and accretion is identified successfully.
Over the years, under the combined impact of erosion, accretion, and human interventions,
the large Ana branching Mahanadi River within Odisha has experienced significant hydro
morphological changes. However, to accurately quantify morphological changes of an active
alluvial river such as the Mahanadi can be challenging. A practical approach to detect the
long-term, morphological changes of the Ganges River is by analyzing multiple satellite
images. In this study, Landsat MSS LULC images of 2017 and 2021 acquired over the
Mahanadi River located within Odisha were analyzed. According to this study it is suggested
that the nearby villages on the right bank are suggested to be shifted at a safer place. An area
of 39884.37 ha can be made available for future erosion possibilities which can be reason for
heavy flood and water logging in the area. An area of the 210179.62 will be generated by
accretion which can be used for different uses like sand mining etc. because the sand
transported and accreted may be useful for various purposes.
7. References
1. Subrahmanyam V, Subrahmanyam A.S., Murty G.P.S., Murthy K.S.R. (2006)

Morphology and tectonics of Mahanadi Basin, north-eastern continental margin of
India from geophysical studies
2. Ashwini K, Pathan S.A., Singh A. (2020), Understanding planform dynamics of the
Ganga River in eastern part of India
3. Raj C., Singh V. (2020), Assessment of planform changes of the Ganga River from
Bhagalpur to Farakka during 1973–2019 using satellite imagery
4. Takagi T, Oguchi T, Matsumoto J, Grossman M.J., Sarker M.H., Matin M.A. (2006)
Channel braiding and stability of the Brahmaputra River Bangladesh, since 1967: GIS
and remote sensing analyses
5. Hassan Momin, Rubia Biswas, Chandrakala Tamang (2020) Morphological analysis
and channel shifting of the Fulahar river in Malda district, West Bengal, India using
remote sensing and GIS techniques
6. Rajakumari S, Meenambikai M, Divya V, Sarunjith V, Ramesh R (2021)
Morphological changes in alluvial and coastal plains of Kandaleru river, Andhra
Pradesh using RS and GIS
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
Page 10
Conjunctive Use of Ground and Surface Water

for Optimal Cropping Pattern
Sarker, T.1, Talukdar S.2, Ghosh S.3
1
Assistant Professor, Techno International New Town, Kolkata – 700156, INDIA;
Email: rahulsarker.95@gmail.com
2
PG Student, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar, Silchar - 788010, INDIA;
Email: swagata_pg_21@civil.nits.ac.in
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar, Silchar - 788010, INDIA;
E-mail: susmita@civil.nits.ac.in
Abstract
Urbanization and growth in population has caused an increase in demand of ground water. Due
to industrialization unplanned pumping has caused depletion in ground water level which
caused a socio-technical problem like overdraft of aquifer and increasing heavy metal
concentration in the same. Proper planning has necessary for effective use of ground water in
culturable command area for its optimal utilization. Planning for maximization of net annual
benefit from irrigation remained unattained. Present study deals with particle swarm
optimization to find out the optimal cropping pattern like Aman paddy, Boro paddy and Potato
in Burdwan district in West Bengal. Finally, a study of most profitable crop pattern of the area
of that particular region has been suggested.
Keywords: Culturable Command Area, Particle Swarm Optimization, Cropping Pattern
1. Introduction
Planning for irrigation purpose becomes a great matter of concern to get maximum benefit
from cultivation by utilizing ground and surface water judicially. Ground water is one of the
most valuable resources in the whole world mainly used for agricultural purpose, drinking
purpose, industrial purpose etc. Due to many reasons like growth of population, urbanization,
industrial development, irregular monsoon, prolonged summer causes increased in water
demand in all respect. In spite of having good canal irrigation system in Indo Gangetic plain
the canal irrigation system is unable to meet the requirement of irrigation water and hence use
of ground water become very mandatory.
Groundwater management Models are eventually capable to determine the optimal

pumping/recharge rates and optimal well locations have some restrictions upon draw downs,
gradients, and water demands. Conjunctive water use allocation related problem can be solved
using groundwater and surface water interaction (Gorelick,1982). Groundwater simulation
linked with genetic algorithm can resolve groundwater management problem like maximum
pumping from an aquifer; maximum cost to water supply development; minimum cost for
aquifer remediation. In case of more complicated problem especially in case of no linear
discontinuous problem, non-convex problem with genetic algorithm is more suitable than
Page 1
gradient based method (McKinney and Lin, 1994). Optimization of the regional crop patterns
are subjected to the set of constraints which are depth of maximum water table and stream
aquifer inflow have generally done with linked simulation-optimization model. Data sets were
collected from a calibrated model of groundwater flow. This model was found reasonable in
case of computation compared with traditional optimization model (Ghosh and Kashyap,
2012). The linked simulation optimization models of groundwater programming essentially
require frequent simulation of the state variables that describe the set of constraints and the
objective function. Here, linking is done through ANN model optimization of the zonal crop
areas subject to the constraints of a) maximum groundwater table depth and b) stream-aquifer
inter flow under the dynamic equilibrium (Ghosh and Kashyap, 2012). Development of a
nonlinear multi-objective model has been done and took two objective functions one is cost-
effective allocation of surface water and ground water supplies, and another is minimization of
saltwater intrusion. It has been found that the intrusion objective response surface may be flat
with many local minimums. Since there is a probability that this situation might be occur in
future studies, the problem related to non-convexity and multiple local minimums should be
addressed (Emch and Yeh, 1998). This study presents a numerical solution for the two-
dimensional motion of a shallow interface for a costal aquifer with variable thickness and
characteristics, in the presence of any recharge pattern, and pumping. With a perfect solution
in the simple case and reasonable agreement in the case of the experimental Hale-Shaw model,
the numerical method is essentially stable and produces results in good manner (Shamir and
Dagan, 1971). Arc-swat model is used for simulation of water surface and estimating the
recharge rate. This methodology has been applied in Sai-Gomiti interfluve region in India. The
recharge values obtained from arc-SWAT model are the inputs of visual MODFLOW which is
a groundwater simulation model, and sensitivity analysis with hydraulic conductivity has done
and the results reveal that groundwater simulation model has a tolerance limit up to 10% in
hydraulic conductivity values after that error basically increases. Three different case of
groundwater management are found based on possible recharge and withdrawal patterns. The
results disclose that the maximum groundwater level will reach 8.81 m in the year 2020. The
areas near to Gomti River display a high rate of decline in groundwater level. Calibrated and
validated model further used in future groundwater levels predictions in the field of potential
groundwater management (Singh and Shukla, 2016).A look through the literature reveals the
fact that planning for Maximization of net annual benefit from irrigation of Burdwan district
in West Bengal has not been done before by proper way for that reason proper planning is
required on this region and various model of maximization of net annual returns from an
irrigated area had solved by many optimization techniques using software like Lindo, Lingo
etc. but by using PSO to solve this model and their comparison had been done a little of bit.
2. Methodology
2.1 Methods and procedure
In the present study, particle swarm optimization has been chosen to optimize the chosen
optimization function (i.e., maximization of benefit from optimal cropping pattern) by
iteratively.
Page 2
2.1.1 Optimization model
The linear programming technique has been used to formulate the optimization model. The
governing objective function is
We have to maximize the optimization function (Z)
i=no of zone in the study area (nz=2)
j=no of major crops (nc=3)
Ai,j =The area be jthbeneath crop in ith zone
Yj =The production of jth crop(kg/ha)
CCLj=Total cost of cultivation for jth crop excluding water cost
CGTj =Cost of ground water per ha for different crops
CSTj =Cost of surface water per acre for different crops
Page 3
Subject to constraints
Wi,j =total water available for agriculture purpose in burdwan
=Land use coefficient for ith zone jth crop
WRi,j= water requirement of jth crop ith zone
2.1.2 Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)
Particle swarm optimization (PSO)is a computational method. It is a iterative method. It is

basically use to furtherance the candidate result with a measurable quality. PSO solves a
problem which is based on the candidate solution. The phenomena PSO is related to moving
particle, these particles are moving around the search region, according to the simple
mathematical formulae which is related to the particle's position and velocity.
Basic Equation of PSO:

Vi,j (t+1) = w×Vi,j (t) + r1×c1 ×(Pi,j(t) - Xi,j(t))+r2×c2 ×(gi(t) - Xi,j(t))
Vi,j (t)=velocity of ith particle at time t
Pi,j(t)=personal best position of ith particle at time t
Xi,j(t)=position of ith particle at time t
gi(t)= Global best position of ith particle at time t
Vi,j (t+1)= Updated velocity of ith particle at time t+1
c2 =Personal Acceleration co-efficient=2.0
c1 = Global Acceleration coefficient=2.0
w =inertia co-efficient=1
wdamp=Damping ratio of inertia co-efficient=0.99
Page 4
w = w*wdamp
2.1.2 Procedure of PSO

There are several steps in the PSO including problem definition, parameters of PSO,
initialization, main loop of PSO and results.
Problem definition
1. Declaration of nos of unknown (decision variable)

2. Define matrix size of decision variables
3. Define Lower bound of the variable
4. Define upper bound of the variable
Parameters of PSO
1) Set the max No of Iterations
2) Define population size
3) Set the value of Inertia co-efficient
4) Set the value of Damping ratio of inertia co-efficient
5) Set the value of personal Acceleration co-efficient
6) Set the value of global Acceleration coefficient
7) Define maximum velocity
8) Define minimum velocity
Initialization
 Create particle template

 Create population array
 Initialize global best
 Initialize population member
 Generate random solution
 Initialize velocity
 Evaluation of cost function
 Update the personal best
 Update global best
 Create an array to hold best cost values of every iteration
Main loop of PSO
 Update the velocity using basic equation of pso

 Apply velocity limits
 Update position
 Apply upper bound and lower bound
 Evaluation of cost function
Page 5
 Update personal best

 Update global best
 Store the best cost values
 Damping Inertia co-efficient
Results
 Iteration value
 Variable optimal value
 Graphical representation
2.2 Study Area
It is an agricultural area of about 466630 ha. The area lying between latitudes 23° 13'
57.0468''N and longitudes 87° 51' 48.3084'' E. The region has an average elevation of 40
meters (131 ft). The city is situated 1100 km from New Delhi and a little less than 100 km
north-west of Kolkata on the Grand Trunk Road (National Highway 19) and Eastern
Railway. The chief rivers are the Damodar and the Banka.
Page 6
Figure1 location of the study area
Page 7
Figure2 enlarged view of the study are
The objective function has been solved by particle swarm optimization technique. After solving
the objective function which contains three set of constrains optimal solution has achieved. The
iterations and the optimal agricultural area have got from the result of PSO. After 133 iteration
optimal solution has reached.
Page 8
Optimal area under different crops (Existing cropping pattern)
A11=Area under Aman paddy of zone 1=82294 ha
A12=Area under Potato of zone 1=10300 ha
A13=Area under Boro paddy of zone 1=35460 ha
A21=Area under Aman paddy of zone 2=313430 ha
A22=Area under Potato of zone 2=35727 ha
A23=Area under Boro paddy of zone 2=154320 ha

Net annual benefit= Rs 11079000000
Fig3: Iteration vs Max benefit
Page 9
From result it is the evident that in case of current cropping pattern the maximum annual benefit
is coming from Aman paddy. The optimal area under Aman paddy in zone-1 and zone-2 are
respectively 82294 ha and 313430 ha. The optimal area under potato in zone-1 and zone-2 are
respectively 35460 ha and 35727 ha. The optimal area under Boro paddy in zone-1 and zone-
2 are respectively 35460 ha and 154320 ha.
From the 1st scenario (by increasing the crop area of Boro paddy 20% and decreasing the crop
area of potato and Aman paddy by 10%) it has been observed that the maximum annual return
is Rs 4880367260 more than the annual return came from existing cropping pattern. Not only
the annual benefit in case of Boro paddy cultivation there is an advantage of being artificial
ground water recharge. Through the base period it inundates some depth of water which will
artificially recharge the ground water storage.
Page 10
From the 2nd scenario (by increasing the crop area of potato 20% and decreasing the crop area
of Aman paddy and Boro paddy by 10%) it has been observed that the maximum annual return
is Rs 4873808960 more than the annual return came from existing cropping pattern. In case of
potato cultivation there is a problem to store it as because storage cost is high so there is a
chance to reduction of benefit to some extent.
4. Conclusions
As in West Bengal there is a little scope to increase the agricultural land, optimize cropping is
very necessary. The use of modern seeds and technology has increased the crop production.
Due to many reasons like growth of population, urbanization, industrial development, irregular
monsoon, prolonged summer causes increased in water demand in all respect. So, by using
optimal quantity of water maximum cultivation of land is very necessary. Here by using particle
swarm optimization the optimal areas under different crops like Aman paddy, Potato and Boro
paddy has been found out. Finally, it has been concluded that Boro paddy cultivation is more
preferable than potato and Aman paddy particular on that region.
Acknowledgements
Authors would like to express the gratitude to the Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar for
providing the facilities to carry out the research work.
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and simulated annealing: formulation and comparison 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water
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Page 12
Meteorological Drought Index Forecasting based on Machine Learning

Techniques in the Homogenous Region of North East India
Ayilobeni Kikon1, B M Dodamani2

1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Water Resources & Ocean Engineering, National
Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangaluru, India – 575025;
Email: ayilobeni@gmail.com
2
Professor, Department of Water Resources & Ocean Engineering, National Institute of
Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangaluru, India – 575025
Abstract
Drought is one of the nature’s most catastrophic events, wreaking havoc on the agriculture,
social and economic life. Every year, significant area and population around the world are
affected by drought, which can last anywhere between weeks to years. Meteorological drought
forecasting can provide valuable information that may be used to mitigate the consequences of
drought. In this paper, the drought analysis is carried out based on monthly rainfall data
collected from 1958 to 2017 for the North-East region of India. Rainfall in the North-East
region ranges from heavy to extremely heavy during the South-West Monsoon season i.e., from
June to September, with June being the wettest month followed by prolonged dry conditions
during non-monsoon period. With regional differences, the average annual rainfall is about
2000 mm in the study area. In the present study, two machine learning techniques, Genetic
Algorithm-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (GA-ANFIS) and Generalized Regression
Neural Network (GRNN) are employed to forecast the meteorological drought index and the
obtained results are compared. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with different
timescale (9- and 12-months) is employed in this investigation. The outcome of the statistical
performance of the models show how different timescales result in distinct evaluation metrics.
When comparing the two different model performance statistics, it is clear that the GA-ANFIS
model outperformed the GRNN model. The results show that longer the timescale of the
drought index, the better the performance in terms of predicting a meteorological drought
index. On the other hand, it is noted that the hybrid machine learning model GA-ANFIS
predicts the meteorological drought index with more accuracy. The findings of the study appear
to be beneficial in understanding the drought behaviour and identify drought-prone locations,
which play a significant role while developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Keywords: Drought, Meteorological drought, SPI, Machine learning techniques.
1. Introduction
Drought occurs in every climate zone on the globe, and it has a big impact on
agriculture, society, and the economy. Arid and semi-arid environments are more likely to have
droughts, which can last for weeks, months, years, or even decades. Meteorological drought
results from an annual rainfall deficit of less than 25% of that region's average rainfall (Das et
Page 1
al., 2020). Accurate drought forecasting significantly supports in the drought mitigation, which
in turn lessens the drought related damage (Hosseini-Moghari & Araghinejad, 2015). In the
area of drought forecasting, numerous studies have been conducted using time series data. The
drought index SPI requires precipitation data only for computation (Karimi et al., 2019) and
with its increased features, such as its simplicity and temporal flexibility on all timescales, SPI
delivers the first crucial information regarding the drought conditions in detection and
monitoring capacities (Hayes et al., 1999). SPI is a useful tool for assessing meteorological
drought at various scales and can identify various levels of severity (Alam et al., 2016).
Additionally, indicators like minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, potential
evapotranspiration, and sun hours must be used to compute drought conditions due to the
complexity of the phenomenon.
Drought events occur less frequently but last longer on longer timescales however,
longer timescales do not always identify all the unfavourable deviations that are apparent on
shorter timescales (Šebenik et al., 2017). Compared to other natural hazards, droughts have a
gradual evolution, which makes it possible to effectively mitigate their effects. Drought
consequences also take a long time to manifest after they first occur (Belayneh & Adamowski,
2012; Mishra & Singh, 2010). Drought forecasts are a useful tool for mitigating some of the
negative impacts of drought because Artificial Neural Networks are more effectual at
predicting SPI in the moderate and semi-arid climate zone of the Awash river basin (Belayneh
& Adamowski, 2012).
In order to prevent its negative economic effects and to manage water resources
effectively, it is crucial to comprehend and forecast drought. Hybrid models have been found
to be the most suitable tools for enhancing drought prediction accuracy. In recent years, hybrid
models have become more widespread by effectively combining multiple prediction techniques
(Alawsi et al., 2022). It has been demonstrated that hybrid ANFIS-GA model has a high rate of
prediction, making it advantageous in meteorological drought situations. The utilization of
optimization approaches in addition to the hybrid development and application of neural
network models has an optimistic influence on the model's prediction performance (Calp,
2019). Forecasting of long-term drought based on machine learning in arid regions provides a
valuable information to minimize the impacts of drought (Belayneh et al., 2014).
In the real world, drought time series are typically seasonal and neither linear nor
nonlinear. For drought forecasting, therefore, the combination of an ANN model and a time
series model like the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is particularly
advantageous (Mishra et al., 2007). Monitoring and taking precautions for drought-prone
species are essential since drought is a climate factor that has disastrous effects on a country's
economy. For local government and water resource planners, creating ANN models for drought
predictions might be helpful in order to provide accurate predictions of extreme points (Katip,
2018). It is important to consider the region's rainfall patterns, dry and rainy seasons, and other
factors while creating numerous long-term plans. To predict the drought, a variety of models
have been utilised, including artificial neural networks (ANN) (Morid et al., 2007; Prasad et
al., 2017), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (Bacanli et al., 2009), wavelet artificial
neural network (Belayneh et al., 2014). In comparison to desert dry cold regions, mountainous
Page 2
arid cold regions can present accurate drought forecasting using machine learning algorithms.
The created machine learning algorithms can be useful for water managers when planning for
agricultural, municipal, and industrial water supply (Aghelpour et al., 2021).
Machine learning-based algorithms are among the many methods that have been used
in recent years to predict the drought indices. Furthermore, metaheuristic models like GA and
PSO are also created by combining these models with drought-prediction optimization
methods. These models have been broadly utilized for prediction as the meteorological drought
index (Deo et al., 2017; Mokhtarzad et al., 2017; Zahraie et al., 2017), and it has been noted
that performance has been accounted under several climatic environments. ANFIS and its
hybrid forms with particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm were utilized to forecast
SPI as a meteorological drought index (Kisi et al., 2019). Machine learning algorithms perform
significantly satisfactory in most drought studies when it comes to separately forecasting
various types of droughts (Aghelpour et al., 2020).
This study main objective is to analyse one the meteorological drought index,
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with timescales of 9 and 12 months. Additionally, it has
also been presented prediction models that predict drought between 1958 and 2017 using the
generalised regression neural network (GRNN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system
(ANFIS) with genetic algorithm (GA).
2.1 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
SPI is one of the frequently utilized drought index. It was developed by (McKee, T. B.,
N. J. Doesken, 1993), and the computation is based on precipitation data. A probability
distribution must be fitted to a series of combined monthly precipitation data in order to
calculate SPI. The SPI is used to calculate a frequency distribution based on historical
precipitation data for a specific time period at a specific location. The theoretical probability
density function of the gamma distribution for the selected time scale is then fitted to the
empirical distribution of precipitation frequency to produce a normal distribution function with
the mean values of SPI at zero. The gamma distribution's probability density function is given
as,
1
𝑔(𝑥) = 𝛼 𝑥 𝛼−1 𝑒 −𝑥/𝛽 , (for x > 0) (1)
𝛽 Γ(𝛼)
where, x > 0 is the amount of precipitation, β > 0 is the scale parameter and α > 0 is the
shape factor. Ґ (α) is the value taken by the gamma function, which is a common mathematical
function that is defined by the integral,
∞
Γ(𝛼) = ∫ 𝑦 𝛼−1 𝑒 −𝑦 𝑑𝑦 (2)

0
For estimating the parameters of α and β, different methods have been suggested,
Page 3
1 4𝐴
𝛼= (1 + √1 + ) (3)
4𝐴 3
x


∑ 𝑙𝑛(𝑥)
where, for ‘n’ observations, 𝐴 = 𝑙𝑛(𝑥̅ ) − (4)
𝑛
The cumulative probability G(x) of observed precipitation is given by,

𝑥 𝑥
1
𝐺(𝑥) = ∫ 𝑔(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫ 𝑥 𝛼−1 𝑒 −𝑥/𝛽 𝑑𝑥 (5)
𝛽Γ(𝛼)
0 0
Since a precipitation distribution may contain zeros and the gamma function is undefined when
x=0, cumulative probability,
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑞 + (1 − 𝑞)𝐺(𝑥) (6)
where P(x) is the cumulative probability of precipitation observed, and q is the

probability of monthly rainfall equal to zero.
The values of SPI is shown in Table 1 with different categories of drought. The
numerical representation with negative sign indicates a dry condition and positives sign
indicates a wet condition.
Table 1 Categorization of SPI values for drought severity.

Class SPI standard value
Extremely Dry ≤ -2.0
Severely Dry -1.5 to -1.99
Moderately Dry -1.0 to -1.49
Normal -0.99 to 0.99
2.2 Genetic Algorithm-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (GA-ANFIS)
GA and ANFIS are combined together to form a hybrid algorithm. ANFIS technique addresses
challenging issues using artificial intelligence. In order to solve complex, non-linear issues,
ANFIS combines with both fuzzy inference techniques and artificial neural networks. Fuzzy
inference systems of the Tekagi-Sugeno type and hybrid algorithms are employed in this
framework. The least-squares method and the back-propagation learning algorithm are
combined in the ANFIS learning algorithm. This hybrid algorithm keeps updating all of the
algorithm's parameters until an acceptable error is reached (Bacanli et al., 2009; Jang, 1993).
GA is an evolutionary heuristic search algorithm that is based on genetics and natural selection.
Goldberg completed GA after Holland first proposed it in 1967. Generally, basic concept of
Page 4
GA is established on putting a number of inherent changes to the test in accordance with the
fitness values of the particles (individuals) represented by the chromosome. The results of the
first population are used to guide the procedures like crossover and mutation. In order to
achieve the intended outcome or meet a predetermined stop criterion, new individuals are
acquired and enhanced through the significantly improved individuals. In the GA technique
solution process, coded individuals are subjected to genetic modifications like crossover and
mutation in order to genetically improve the identified populations and advance the solving
process in the right direction. To create a new individual, the predetermined individuals are
reproduced using the crossover process. In order to achieve this, fresh individuals are created
by reciprocal gene-code exchange in accordance with the pertinent GA parameters and the
identified crossover pattern. To boost the ability of successful individuals to arrive at additional
successful solutions within the algorithm, mutation processing is also used. In the selected
individuals for mutation, the procedure of changing the codes is repeated in the same manner
as the associated GA parameters (Calp, 2019; Dener & Calp, 2018; Kramer, 2017).
2.3 Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN):
GRNN is a kind of probabilistic neural network that was first suggested by Donald F. Specht
(Specht, 1991). It is an enhanced method based on nonparametric regression in neural networks
and crucial tool for system comparisons and performance forecasting. It has a one-pass learning
method with a highly parallel structure. It is based on a common statistical method and has a
connection to the radial basis function network.
Figure 1 represents the procedure that has been adopted in this study. Rainfall data has been
obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Using the rainfall data, the
computation of SPI-9 and SPI-12 was done. The training portion of the data for the GA-ANFIS
and GRNN models comprised 80%, while the validation portion comprised 20%. Based on the
different performance metrics of the model, the best model was selected.
Figure 1 Flowchart of method adopted in the study
2.2.1 Study area and Data
The study area comprised of five meteorological subdivisions of India's North East Region:
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam-Meghalaya, Gangetic West-Bengal, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-
Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal Sikkim, according to the India Meteorological
Department (IMD). Because it is so close to the tropics, North-East India has a largely tropical
climate, especially in the valleys. This area receives more than 2,000 millimetres of rain
annually. Summer time brings in the majority of the rainfall. The monthly rainfall dataset used
for the study is from 1958-2017 which is obtained from IMD. There is a lot of biodiversity, a
lot of precipitation, and a lot of seismicity in the study area. The majority of the time, the
climate is humid subtropical, with hot, humid summers, strong monsoons, and mild winters.
Page 5
Figure 2 The Study area: North-East India with five meteorological subdivision
In the present work, the forecasting capabilities of the machine learning algorithms GA-ANFIS
and GRNN models for SPI-9 and SPI-12 were evaluated. For North-East India, which consists
of five meteorological subdivisions, the prediction outcome for the best models are presented
in Table 2. To compare the prediction ability, the model accuracy for SPI-9 and SPI-12 has
been tested using some of the efficiency evaluation metrics, such as the coefficient of
determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) values.
The performance statistics of the two models demonstrate that the GA-ANFIS model
performed better than the GRNN model. The study found that the GA-ANFIS model
outperformed the GRNN model in terms of predictive accuracy and prediction error.
Page 6
Consequently, ANFIS can predict with greater precision when its parameters are adjusted using
GA. It has also been noted that the models' performance improved as the time scale increased.
The models’ accuracies are compared in Table 2 in forecasting SPI-9 and SPI-12 of five
meteorological subdivisions. As clearly seen from Table 2, the GA-ANFIS has better approach
than GRNN model in all the five meteorological subdivisions. The evaluation metric statistics
show that GA-ANFIS performs better for the SPI-12 timescale with the lowest RMSE values.
The GA-ANFIS for SPI-12 has the highest R2 (0.906) and lowest RMSE (0.203) among the
meteorological subdivisions of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Consequently, GA-
ANFIS is the most accurate NMMT meteorological subdivision tool. The RMSE accuracy of
the GA-ANFIS model in forecasting SPI-12 was lower than that of the GRNN model and GA-
ANFIS for SPI-9 in Arunachal Pradesh (0.213), Assam-Meghalaya (0.271), Gangetic West
Bengal (0.414), and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal-Sikkim (0.371). It is abundantly clear that
the hybrid GA-ANFIS model predicts SPI at various timescales with greater precision.
Table 2 Performance statistics of GA-ANFIS and GRNN

GA-ANFIS GRNN
Region Statistics
SPI-9 SPI-12 SPI-9 SPI-12
RMSE 0.309 0.213 0.327 0.276
Arunachal Pradesh NSE 0.767 0.873 0.739 0.786
KGE 0.85 0.926 0.828 0.801
R² 0.772 0.873 0.751 0.791
RMSE 0.495 0.271 0.477 0.465
Assam-Meghalaya NSE 0.538 0.831 0.572 0.505
KGE 0.759 0.861 0.672 0.502
R² 0.648 0.843 0.638 0.733
RMSE 0.561 0.414 0.585 0.447
Gangetic West NSE 0.693 0.823 0.665 0.793
Bengal KGE 0.789 0.845 0.634 0.457
R² 0.695 0.823 0.667 0.803
RMSE 0.292 0.203 0.417 0.544
Nagaland-Manipur- NSE 0.818 0.9 0.631 0.279
Mizoram-Meghalaya KGE 0.77 0.906 0.555 0.391
R² 0.86 0.906 0.815 0.749
RMSE 0.438 0.371 0.434 0.409
Sub-Himalayan West NSE 0.408 0.691 0.624 0.647
Bengal-Sikkim KGE 0.593 0.765 0.478 0.615
R² 0.465 0.609 0.452 0.559
The SPI for 9- and 12-month timescales is represented with violin plots in Figures 3 and 4,
indicating that the region experiences both dry and wet conditions. The violin plot compares
the observed SPI with the predicted SPI using GA-ANFIS and GRNN. The violin plot shows
the mean and the median of the observed and predicted SPI and we can clearly visualize the
distribution of the dry and wet conditions for each meteorological subdivisions. It is clear from
Page 7
the figures of the violin plot that the values of the predicted SPI using GA-ANFIS for various
timescales closely match the values of the observed SPI. The analysis shows that GA-ANFIS
models, irrespective of SPI timescales, provides a better prediction results. The negative value
represents the dry conditions and the positive value represents the wet conditions in the SPI
scale.
Figure 3 Violin plot for SPI-9
Page 8
Figure 4 Violin plot for SPI-12
Drought frequency has been computed for all the meteorological subdivisions of North-East
India using SPI-9 and SPI-12 from 1958-2017. A SPI value of less than -2 indicates extreme
drought, a value of -1.5 to -1.99 indicates severe drought, a value of -1.49 to -1.49 indicates
moderate drought, a value of 0.99 to -0.99 indicates normal drought, and a value of greater than
+0.99 indicates no drought. Figure 5 shows the representation of drought frequency for SPI-9
where, extreme drought has 0-2%, severe drought has 2.5-5%, moderate drought has 7-12%,
normal drought has 65-70% and no drought has 14-18All five meteorological subdivisions,
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam-Meghalaya, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-
Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal Sikkim, experienced severe drought conditions for
SPI-9.
Page 9
100
90
80
Drought Frequency (%)
72.75
70.51 69.66
70 64.04 65.73
60
50
40
30
18.68
17.98
14.75
14.19
14.19
12.50
11.10
11.10
20
9.13
7.72
5.06
4.92
4.35
3.51
2.67
1.97
10
1.26
1.12
0.70
0.42
0
Arunachal Pradesh Assam-Meghalaya Gangetic West Bengal Nagaland Manipur Sub-Himalayan West
Mizoram Tripura Bengal Sikkim
S P I-9
Extreme Severe Moderate Normal No drought
Figure 5 Bar chart of drought frequency along with numerical percentage for SPI-9
Figure 5 represents the drought frequency for SPI-12. According to the study, the North-East
India experiences about 0-2% of extreme drought, 2.5-6% of severe drought, 9-12% of
moderate drought, 61-72% of normal drought and 13-18% of no drought conditions during the
study period. The study shows that the extreme drought occurrence is very few whereas the
normal drought occurs more. The study also shows that no extreme drought event was observed
for SPI-12 in Arunachal Pradesh during the study period.
100
90
80
72.21
Drought Frequency (%)
70.52 69.82
67.56
70
61.50
60
50
40
30
18.76
15.94
14.25
13.82
13.82
12.98
12.69
11.99
10.86
20
9.17
6.06
4.23
4.23
2.96
2.68
2.26
10
0.99
0.56
0.14
0.00
0
Arunachal Pradesh Assam-Meghalaya Gangetic West Bengal Nagaland Manipur Sub-Himalayan West
S P I-1 2 Mizoram Tripura Bengal Sikkim
Extreme Severe Moderate Normal No drought
Figure 6 Bar chart of drought frequency along with numerical percentage for SPI-12
Page 10
Conclusions
This study looked into whether machine learning techniques could predict SPI-9 and SPI-12.
From 1958 to 2017, the North East India region, which included five meteorological
subdivisions, was the subject of the study. The meteorological drought forecasts of SPI-9 and
SPI-12 were the focus of this study. The prediction ability of the GA-ANFIS model has been
found to be superior to that of the GRNN model based on the performance of the machine
learning algorithms. When it came to forecasting SPI-9 and SPI-12 in the North-East of India,
the GA-ANFIS model outperformed the GRNN model, particularly for SPI-12. This study
found that the study area's diverse characteristics and climatology had no discernible effect on
the accuracy of forecasts. The findings of the study may be useful in gaining an understanding
of how droughts behave, locating regions affected by drought, and putting into action strategies
to lessen the effects of drought.
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Assessment of rainfall trends and variability over the Sabari River basin,
India
Vakkalagadda R.K.1, Pichuka S.2
1
Research Scholor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology
Andhra Pradesh, Tadepalligudem - 534101, INDIA
2
Andhra Pradesh, Tadepalligudem - 534101, INDIA
Email: rathna.iitr@gmail.com, subbarao@nitandhra.ac.in
Abstract
This study investigated the historical changes in the spatiotemporal variation of rainfall over
the Sabari River Basin (SRB). The daily gridded rainfall data for a period of 100 years (1921-
2020) at 0.25o x 0.25o resolution is obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Further, the daily rainfall data is converted into annual rainfall data, and then the trends are
analyzed using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall Test (MKT). A total of 28 grid points which
are falling within the SRB are considered for the analyses. The MKT is performed at a 5%
significance level (SL). The results demonstrate that in the south-west part of the basin (close
to the outlet), a considerable positive trend in the rainfall is observed. Further, a few locations
in the east-west corner and the northern part of the SRB showed a considerable negative trend.
However, the majority of the central region of the SRB is not showing any trend based on 5%
SL. Sen’s slope estimate is used to calculate the magnitude of the trend and it is found to be
varying between 2.4 to 4 mm/year for the locations, where positive and negative trends are
noticed. The trends in the rainfall timeseries, may be because of the change in the hydrologic
behavior of the basin due to climate change. The outcome of this study has several practical
importance such as developing a robust hydrologic model.
Keywords: Spatiotemporal variations, Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall Test, Sabari River

Basin, Sen’s slope
1. Introduction
The rainfall over a basin varies spatiotemporally in its distribution, which can be better
understood by its trend. In the present scenario of greenhouse gas emissions and impacts due
to climate change, acquiring knowledge of spatiotemporal variations is a preliminary
requirement to understand the nature of the altering hydrological cycle of the basin (Douville
et al, 2021). This will help in structuring a hydrological model for a basin, irrespective of the
chosen modeling approach. A well-structured hydrologic model then can be used for future
prediction of hydro-meteorological variables of the basin. An efficiently predicted water yield
in a basin will aid in making appropriate policies and handling situations pertaining to
vulnerability and sustainability. Thereby robust implementation of adaptation strategies and
disaster management, associated with climate change will be feasible.
Page 1
To find the statistical significance of trends in rainfall time series, the test statistic given by
Mann-Kendall nonparametric test is used (Sonali & Nagesh Kumar, 2013). In case of
autocorrelated data MK test may give incorrect rejection during hypothesis testing. To avoid
such situations corrective measures like prewhitening may be required (Bayazit & Önöz, 2007).
However, this may lead to reduction in power of the test when trend is present (Yue & Wang,
2002).
2. Study Area and Data Source
The Sabari River Basin (SRB) is considered as the study area. The SRB is one of the important
sub basins for the Godavari. Sabari River originates in the Eastern Ghats of Odisha state, where
it is known with the name Kolab River. The river confluences with the Godavari River near a
village, Kunavaram, Telangana, India. The drainage area of the SRB is approximately
21,121 km2 and extends between 81o5’23” E, 17o31’28” N and 83o2’44” E, 19o60’23” N
(Figure 1). Elevation of the SRB ranges from 19 m to 1675 m, and most of the upstream of the
basin is at or higher than 1000 m.
The daily rainfall data of Sabari River Basin (SRB) is obtained from the India Meteorological
Department (IMD) web source (Pai et al., 2014) for the present study. The study area map of
SRB along with 28 IMD gridded (0.25o x 0.25o resolution) locations is delineated using
ArcMap 10.8 and shown in Figure 1. The daily rainfall data for 100 years (1921-2020) is
downloaded for the analyses. The data is then converted to annual rainfall data and is used for
analysing the trend at the selected grid locations. The normal annual rainfall for a few typical
location pertaining to the low elevation region, medium elevation region and high elevation
region of the SRB are given in the table 1 below.
Table 1: Normal Annual Rainfall in the SRB basin
Normal Annual Rainfall (in mm)

Location Elevation Period considered
1931-1960 1961-1990 1991-2020
3 1378 1354 1469
Low
9 1448 1353 1638
22 1833 1469 1721
Medium
27 1788 1506 1558
13 1476 1158 1335
High
25 1286 1193 1291
3. Methodology
To arrive at the decision of presence or absence of trend for a particular location rainfall
(population) on the basis of observed data available (sample), assumptions are made about the
statistical parameters of the rainfall of that location, known as statistical hypothesis, which may
Page 2
or may not be true. The statistical hypothesis shall have two types of hypothesis (assumptions),
namely null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis (which contradicts null hypothesis). Based on
the statistics of observed rainfall of that location, by following a chosen statistical test (a well-
defined statistical procedure) the statistical hypothesis shall be tested to know whether it is true
or not.
In the present study the statistical hypothesis shall have the null hypothesis as absence of
significant trend in the rainfall at a particular location and alternative hypothesis shall be
presence of significant trend in the rainfall at that particular location. By using a statistical test,
the null hypothesis shall be verified at all the 28 gridded points of the SRB. Based on the result
of the statistical test on the hypothesis, whether the trend is present or not shall be decided at
the various grid locations of the SRB.
Various parametric and non-parametric statistical test are available for testing the hypothesis
regarding the trend in a rainfall data for a particular location. In comparison with parametric
statistical tests, the non-normally distributed data is more suitable for non-parametric tests (Yue
et al., 2002). The hydro-meteorologic time series is often not a normally distributed data hence
in this problem, nonparametric Mann-Kendall Test (MKT) has been selected for testing the
Statistical hypothesis. There are numerous examples for finding trend in hydro-meteorological
time series for various regions by using MKT (Anand et al., 2018; Bari et al., 2016; Gocic &
Trajkovic, 2013; Harshavardhan et al., 2020; Hirsch et al., 1982; Jaiswal et al., 2015; Kale &
Nagesh Kumar, 2018, 2019; Laddimath et al., 2010; Nagendra et al., 2019; Praveen et al., 2020;
Sonali & Nagesh Kumar, 2013; Venkata Rao et al., 2020).
3.1 Mann-Kendall Test (MKT)
The widely used original MKT (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1948) is given as explained here. If x 1,
x2, x3……xn is the time series of length n, then the MK test statistic S is given as
n n
S= sign(xj -xi ) (1)

i=1 j=i+1
where,
1 if xj -xi > 0
sign xj -xi = 0 if xj -xi = 0 (2)
-1 if xj -xi < 0
The test statistic, S is for the series where sample size n > 10 is asymptotically normally
distributed with mean E(S) and variance Var (S) as:
E(S) = 0 (3)
Page 3
n(n-1)(2n+S)
Var (S)= (4)
18
If there is a possibility of tie in the value of x, the variance is computed as:
n(n-1)(2n+S)- ∑Pi=1 ti (ti-1)(2ti +5)

Var (S)= (5)
18
where ti denotes the number of ties in length 'i' ('i' means total number of data points in the
tied group and ‘p’ denotes the number of tied groups. The ‘Z’, i.e., standardized test statistic
which follows the standard normal distribution, is obtained by using following equation.
(S − 1)
⎧ if S > 0
⎪ Var (S)
Z= 0 if S = 0 (6)
⎨ (S + 1)
⎪ if S < 0
⎩ Var (S)
At the significance level of αL, if │Z│ is more as compared to theoretical value of 𝑍 /
(obtained from standard normal cumulative distribution function), then the null hypothesis of
absence of trend is disapproved (Sonali & Nagesh Kumar, 2013). Significance level (SL), α L
in the present study is chosen as 5 %, for this SL the standardized test statistic (Z) magnitude
is 1.96.
3.2 Sen’s Slope Estimate
Magnitude of slope, i.e., Sen’s Slope SS (bSen) (Sen, 1968), is estimated by using the following
equation
Mj -Mk
bSen = median for all k < j (7)
j-k
Where M = variable, j, k = order of the data points, Mj = jth value of the variable ‘M’, Mk =
kth value of the variable ‘M’. If ‘n’ is the number of data points in time series, then the
corresponding number of slope estimates will be n(n-1)/2. The test statistic ‘b sen’ will be median
of all estimated slope values. This test is less affected by outliers (Sonali & Nagesh Kumar,
2013).
The MKT has been carried out for SRB using python coding available with pyMannKendall
library (Hussain & Mahmud, 2019).
For the SRB, the inference of hypothesis testing is shown in Figure 1. Near the SRB outlet, a
considerable portion of the basin is showing a significant positive trend (based on results at
locations 3, 4, 8, 9 and 10) and a minor portion of the lower basin on the east-west corner
(based on results at locations 22, 27 and 13) showed a negative trend. Sen’s slope estimate is
between 2.4 mm/ year to 4 mm/year for both positive and negative trends (details given in
Page 4
Table 2). Typical graphs showing the annual rainfall data and Sen’s slope line has been shown
in the figure 2A, and 2B for locations 13 and 03.
The majority of the SRB lying in southwest direction is having lower elevation. From the
Table 2 it can be observed that this area showed significant positive rainfall trend (2.45 to
3.92 mm/year). The major high level basin potion of the SRB in north and southeast direction
showed significant negative trend in rainfall (-2.35 to -4.01 mm/year). The medium elevation
region of the basin has not shown any significant rainfall trends. However, approximately the
lower elevation basin has shown positive rainfall trend (2.05 to 1.08 mm/year) and high
elevation portion of the basin has shown negative rainfall trend (-1.05 to -1.95 mm/year) and
medium elevation portion of the basin showed a transition in rainfall trend (-1.05 mm/ year to
1.08 mm/year) in this particular SRB.
Figure 1 Location of rainfall points of SRB with trend inference
Page 5
3000 Location 13
Data Sen's estimate

Annual Rainfall (in mm)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Figure 2A Location 13 of SRB with trend inference
2500
Location 03
Data Sen's estimate
2000
Annual Rainfall (in mm)
1500
1000
500
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Figure 2B: Location 03 of SRB with trend
Page 6
Table 2: Z and bsen (mm/year) at various locations of SRB
Location Z bsen Location Z bsen Location Z bsen

1 0.56 0.59 11 1.07 1.22 21 -1.18 -1.29
2 0.96 0.93 12 -1.14 -1.15 22 -1.97 -2.43
3 2.47 2.77 13 -2.35 -2.42 23 -0.51 -0.72
4 2.34 2.45 14 -1.05 -1.05 24 -1.64 -1.72
5 1.87 2.05 15 0.14 0.15 25 -0.95 -0.69
6 1.42 1.08 16 -0.35 -0.38 26 -0.23 -0.26
7 1.64 1.64 17 -0.4 -0.48 27 -3.24 -4.01
8 3.99 3.92 18 -0.35 -0.42 28 -1.5 -1.84
9 2.15 2.38 19 -1.68 -1.95
10 2.68 2.89 20 -1.28 -1.9
5.Conclusions
In the present study, trend analysis of annual rainfall is carried out for the Sabari River Basin,
a sub basin of River Godavari, using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator. From these
tests it is obtained that most of the trends are insignificant. The decrease or increase of the
rainfall trends may be attributed to local anthropogenic changes in the basin characteristics or
may be due to natural changes in the regional climate, basin characteristics etc. However, the
IMD Rainfall point wise study has concluded the presence of significant trend at a few grid
points giving clear inference of presence of trend in rainfall for a portion of the SRB. Instead,
if SRB average areal annual rainfall might have considered, which is the usual approach in
spatial trend analysis, might have left with inference of insignificant trend for the entire SRB.
Therefore, this approach has proved to give exact region where trend in the rainfall is
significant.
As it is already mentioned that the analyses at various IMD rainfall points is conducted for 100
years (sample size 100), it is worth to conduct these analyses but considering various sample
sizes (time windows of 90 years, 60 years and 30 years etc.) to reveal the exact time window
when trend is significant for a IMD rainfall point. Considering time series data with less than
30 sample size may effect the power of the MK Test (Yue et al., 2002).
As majority of the SRB lying in southwest direction which is having lower elevation showed
either significant positive trend or positive trend, this area may experience higher water yield
and higher extreme rainfall events leading to flooding. The major high level basin potion of the
SRB in north and southeast direction showed either significant negative trend or negative trend
this area may experience the lesser water yield and attenuation of flood peaks. The medium
elevation region of the basin has not shown any significant rainfall trends. However,
approximately the lower elevation basin has shown positive rainfall trends, this area may not
be having any major implications on policy decisions.
Page 7
The grid-wise trend analyses may be helpful while developing data driven rainfall involved
hydrologic models of the basin, generally in machine learning basin modelling approach. In
those studies, during the data splitting for training, testing and validation the exact region,
where the significant trend is present, can be assisted to give as one of the features, which may
result better performance of those models.
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Blue Green Infrastructure: A Sustainable Solution

for Urban Flood Management in India
Nadeem Ahmad1 and Quamrul Hassan2*

1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia New Delhi,
India – 110025; Email: nadeem2008643@st.jmi.ac.in
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia New Delhi, India –
110025; Email: qhassan@jmi.ac.in
* Corresponding author
Abstract
Urban flooding has become a serious issue in most Indian cities due to rampant urbanisation
and extreme precipitation attributed to climate change. It leads to extreme fatalities and
enormous economic losses in the cities and affects the growth of the country. Extreme
hydrological events have been intensified across the globe due to climate change. The
conventional approaches of urban flood management (UFM) have proven to be inadequate. As
the vulnerability and risks of flooding rises all over the world, several global cities have shifted
their flood management approach from conventional practices to innovative, sustainable and
nature-based solutions through ‘Blue Green Infrastructure’ (BGI) measures (wetlands, lakes,
ponds, rivers, forests, gardens, parks etc). BGI includes the interventions making use of natural
processes and ecosystem services for functional purposes. This paper deals with the causative
factors of urban flooding and their diverse impacts on the cities in Indian context. The paper
also explores the emerging concept of BGI and analyses the existing plans and research projects
in some major global cities and further, possibility of their implementation in India. It is
observed that adaptation of BGI measures optimizes the flood risk reduction along with other
urban ecosystem services (UES) to derive multiple benefits regarding ecological,
socioeconomic and overall urban well-being.
Keywords: Urban flooding in India, Blue-Green Infrastructure, Sustainable flood

management, Nature-based solutions, Urban ecosystem services.
1. Introduction
Cities across the globe are facing the problem of urban flooding, which is severely hampering
their socioeconomic and ecological system. Urban flooding refers to the accumulation of flood
water in any urban area when the inflow of storm water exceeds the outflow capacity through
its drainage system and the natural ground infiltration. The frequency of urban flooding has
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been increased in the recent decades causing huge damages to the properties and even loss of
lives. An uncontrolled and environmentally unplanned urbanisation is primarily responsible
for urban floods across the world. The global urban population increased by five times during
1950 to 2014 (UN 2018). India comprises with an urban population of about 377 million; and
it is forecasted to exceed 600 million by 2031 (Census, 2011; Gupta, 2020). By 2050, one in
every two Indians is expected to live in urban area (Tewari et al., 2016). The environmentally
unplanned urbanisation has increased the urban pressures such as: increased urban flood risk;
increased water, air and noise pollution; loss of biodiversity; urban heat island; and increased
risk of ill health (Bozovic et al. 2017). Rampant urbanisation with the extreme weather
condition attributed to climate change have worsened the urban flooding scenario in the cities
across the globe. In India, the problem of urban flooding is also very critical. An increasing
trend of urban flood disaster has been seen in Indian cities over the past few decades. The cities
such as Chennai, Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow, Hyderabad, Surat, Ahmedabad, Kolkata and many
more are the sufferers of the severe and recurrent urban flooding problem. Some of the most
notable urban floods over the past few decades are Hyderabad floods (2000 and 2020),
Ahmedabad floods (2001), Delhi floods (2002, 2003, 2009 and 2010), Chennai floods (2004
and 2015), Mumbai floods (2005, 2017), Surat flood (2006), Kolkata flood (2007), Jamshedpur
flood (2008), Guwahati flood (2010), and the massive destructive floods in the various regions
of Kashmir and Uttarakhand in 2013 (https://ndma.gov.in/Natural-Hazards/Urban-Floods;
WRI, 2021; Vazhuthi and Kumar, 2020). Many Indian cities, especially the coastal cities are
very severely affected by the urban flooding.
As the vulnerability and risk of urban flooding is rising, the traditional approach of stormwater
management based on grey infrastructures (gravity-based sewers and drains) have proven to
be unsustainable and insufficient. In the developed nations, the archetype of management of
urban flooding has been already shifted from conventional methods to the innovative and
integrated solutions like ‘Blue-Green Infrastructure’ (BGI) approach. BGI is a sustainable and
nature-based solution with multiple benefits. In the present study, the concept of BGI has been
discussed with many successful implementations in different parts of the world, along with the
strong possibilities of BGI in Indian context as well.
2. Urban Flooding Scenario and Need of Sustainable Approach in India
2.1 Causative factors of flooding in India
Floods in the urban regions are usually attributed to combination of different factors. In India,
most of the cities have common factors causing the floods. However, the coastal cities of the
country have some additional factors like sea level rise, cyclonic storms and high tides; which
do not only cause but also aggravate the problem of urban flooding. These factors are quite
diverse and interdependent which ultimately causes the increase in catchment runoff, resulting
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in the flooding (shown in Figure 1). The factors causing urban floods in India can be broadly
categorised as: (a) Hydro-meteorological Factors & Climate Change (b) Urban drainage
Factors (c) Urbanisation & Socio-economic Factors (d) Lack of sustainable framework (Gupta
and Chakrabarty, 2009; NDMA, 2010; Vazhuthi and Kumar, 2020).
The extreme precipitations of shorter durations have been intensified in last few decades due
to various climatic factors like global warming, low pressure zones in the oceans, cyclonic
storms etc (IPCC, 2012). The climate change can be an important contributing factor but not
solely responsible for the frequent occurrences of the extreme weather condition (Trenberth et.
al. 2018). These climatic factors and unprecedented excessive rainfall play very important role
in increasing the catchment runoff, consequently resulting in the devastating urban floods. The
drainage system of urban areas i.e., stormwater drains, natural drains and sewers are also
responsible for the extreme urban flood events in India. In most of the Indian cities, the
combined sewer system has been practiced (MoHUA, 2019). The absence or lack of
stormwater drains leads to the failure of the combined sewer system resulting in the overland
surface flow and inundation of urban areas during the heavy rainfall. The condition and
serviceability of existing urban drainage assets of the older cities of the country such as
Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Lucknow, Surat and many more are also the matter of concern.
Human intervention in the natural environment disturbs the hydrological cycle, land-use land-
cover (LULC) and urban drainage pattern which ultimately increases the flood risk (O’Donnell
and Thorne, 2020). In India, the rapid and unplanned urbanisation is one of the most important
anthropogenic factors causing urban floods. Urbanisation is attributed to many problems which
directly increase the urban flood risk in Indian cities such as increased impervious surface,
interference in the natural drainage, encroachment of open swamps, loss of water bodies and
increased population density leading to failure of designed drainage system. In a developing
nation like India, the low-lying areas of the cities are encroached for residential, commercial
or industrial purposes; that too in unplanned manner. In the past few decades, a significant
decline in the vegetative cover and the waterbodies have been reported in several Indian cities
such as Mumbai, Chennai, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Surat, Kolkata and
many more; the declination is still continued. For example, Mumbai witnessed 60% decline in
vegetation and 65% decrease in waterbodies from 1977 to 2017 (Sayli and Berjis, 2021).
Increased rate of built-up area and the declination of the natural surfaces (vegetation, forests,
waterbodies etc.) manifold the surface runoff; which lead to a disastrous urban flooding even
in a short-term heavy rainfall event.
Urban flood management (UFM) practices in India are usually based on the traditional
structural approach. There is a lack of administrative framework for UFM in most of the urban
areas in the country which can take care of these emerging issues; leading to the problems like
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irregular maintenance of drains, improper solid and liquid waste management and unplanned
settlements under the domain of municipal corporation of the cities. Many cities have the
significant areas of unplanned settlements and such regions do not have adequate drainage
infrastructures like sewer system, stormwater drains etc. The extent of devastation caused due
to flooding in the Indian cities can be evidently attributed to the lack of framework of
explicating administrative responsibilities, absence of sustainable approach, and policymakers
and public attitudes toward UFM.
2.2 Some historic cases of urban flooding in India
In India, most of the developed and rapidly developing cities have been severely suffering the
devastations caused by the floods. Table 1 presents some historic case of urban flooding in the
selected major cities in India (Parth, 2019; WRI, 2021; Gupta, 2007; Gupta, 2009; and
Ramasamy et al., 2018; Sayli and Berjis, 2021). The extent of damages (direct and indirect)
caused by the recurrent flooding in various urban regions of the country is quite worrisome.
Even after some of the catastrophic floods in Indian cities in the last two decades, there is still
a substantial lack of innovative and sustainable practices to manage the flooding in urban areas.
There is an urgent need to get over the traditional grey infrastructure, relief, rehabilitation and
maintenance approach for the urban flood management in India.
Table 1: Some historic case of urban flooding in some of the major cities in India
Urban Flood Devastation caused
Mumbai floods (2005) • More than 500 humans were killed
• Over 100,000 residential and commercial
establishments and 30,000 vehicles were damaged
• More than USD 1800 million were lost between 2005-
2015
Surat floods (2006) • Over 500 deaths

• More than 60% of city area was inundated
• Estimated damage was about USD 2000 million
Chennai floods (2015) • About 2 million people affected
• Estimated loss was about USD 80,000 million
• More than 400 people human lives were lost
Hyderabad floods (2020) • About 40,000 families were displaced
• More than USD 600 million worth of damage
• More than 80 people died
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2.3 Urban Flood Management in India - Need of Sustainable Approach
Indian cities have a long history of municipal drainage system. The combined sewerage system
is still practiced in most of the Indian cities. MoHUA manual on stormwater drainage system
has primarily focussed on traditional structural and non-structural approaches like construction
of storm water drains and conduits, installation of automatic weather stations for rainfall
monitoring and dissemination of real-time rainfall. The manual introduces some innovative and
sustainable practices but there is no dedicated plan spelt out for the implementation of such
practices in Indian context (MoHUA, 2019). The natural drainage systems in most of the cities
are in peril due to poor maintenance, encroachment, improper solid waste management and
unavailability of properly designed stormwater drainage infrastructures. The major causes and
the impacts of urban flooding makes it fundamentally a man-made disaster. Every Indian city
is unique in terms of socio-economic, ecological and other technical aspects. These
characteristics in addition to the urban population growth and the climate change impacts pose
great challenges for decision makers in the process of effective management of urban floods
(McPhearson et al., 2016; Alves, 2020). Many urban areas are expected to suffer from the
increased frequency of heavy rainfall events due to climate change (IPCC, 2012). The urban
drains have their own constraints and complexities regarding capital investment, costly
maintenance, designing the capacity, and the uncertainty about the future conditions; which are
making the problem even more complex and discouraging the sole dependence on the
traditional structural approaches (Alves, 2020). In general, other adverse impacts of rapid
urbanisation (water scarcity, pollution, loss of biodiversity; urban heat island etc.) are not
addressed objectively. The disastrous impacts of urban flood events in the last two decades in
India are pointing out that the existing flood management practices are not sufficient and
sustainable.
The international cities like London and New York have also witnessed some of the disastrous
urban floods due to their rapid urbanisation and declining natural land covers in the absence of
sustainable approaches in the past; but these cities have learnt the lessons from their
experiences and taken the further action towards nature based sustainable solutions. With the
changing paradigm of UFM across the globe, the urban planners and policy makers in India
should also adapt the sustainable flood management practices, taking into account the climate
change mitigation and adaptation. Urban sustainability needs to be considered at the policy
formulation stage, incorporating current and future scenarios. Adaptation of the sustainable
practices like ‘blue-green infrastructure’ measures has become very crucial because these
strategies optimize the flood risk reduction with other objectives to achieve multiple benefits
regarding ecological, socioeconomic and overall urban well-being (Vojinovic, 2015; Alves,
2020). A critical analysis of ‘blue-green infrastructures’ approach has been presented in detail
in the next section.
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3. Blue Green Infrastructures (BGI): A Way Forward to Urban Flood Management
3.1 Overview of BGI

Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) is a new term but not an absolutely new concept. It is deeply
enrooted within the planning and conservation efforts that started more than a century ago in
early 1900s. The concept evolved back then from two major antecedents: the linking of parks
and other green spaces for the benefit of humans; and the linking of natural areas to benefit
biodiversity (Benedict and McMahon, 2002). In 21st century, the ‘blue-green infrastructure’
has been re-evolved as a set of nature-based solutions for urban flood management as well as
riverine flood management with overarching ecological, environmental and socio-economic
benefits. However, there is no typical definition of the concept of BGI. But with the growing
interest in sustainable approach for the flood management, numerous terminologies with
similar concept have been developed in different parts of the world. Broadly used terms which
are almost similar in the urban spaces in context of flood management are ‘green infrastructure’
(GI), ‘green blue infrastructure’ (GBI/BGI), ‘nature-based solution’ (NBS), ‘low impact
development’ (LID), ‘sustainable drainage system’ (SuDS), and ‘ecosystem-based adaptation’
(EBA). The European Commission explicate GI solutions as strategically planned network of
high quality natural and semi-natural areas with other environmental features (vegetation,
forests, waterbodies), which is designed and managed to deliver a wide range of ecosystem
services and protect biodiversity in both rural and urban settings (EC, 2013a). Many
organisations or researchers isolate the ‘blue’ measures (like different waterbodies) from
‘green’ measures (vegetation & forests) (Ahmad and Hassan, 2022).
In the present study the terms BGI, NBS, GI, SuDS and non-traditional measures are
interchangeably used, referring to the measures supported by nature. There are numerous BGI
measures being implemented for urban flood mitigation and other urban ecosystem services
(UES) in different parts of the world. ‘Urban ecosystem services' refers to the benefits which
are derived from the ecosystem by urban population (BGS, 2017; Alves, 2020). There are
various BGI measures which are being adopted worldwide; such as green roads, permeable
pavements, engineered stormwater controls (Rain gardens, bioswales and retention ponds),
green roofs & blue roofs, green facades, rain gardens, wetlands & urban lakes, and rainwater
harvesting system. Figure 1 depicts the various BGI measures and the associated ecosystem
services such as stormwater management and urban flood mitigation including some other
common examples of UES: aesthetics, urban water supply, urban heat island (UHI) mitigation,
improved water quality, improved air quality, urban agriculture, biodiversity, Recreation and
well-being. Multiple economic advantages are also associated with these UES (Brown and
Mijic, 2019; Shakya and Ahiablame, 2021). Table 2 summarizes the description of the
metropolises and BGI adoption plans considered in the present study.
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Figure 1: Various urban ecosystem services (UES) related to BGI measures
3.2 Some of the major BGI projects for cities across the globe
In the last two decades, the adaptation of nature-based solutions has been increased for the
sustainable and integrated water management. The Netherlands has achieved a great success in
the riverine and coastal flood management in its territory by implementing the ‘Room for the
River’ project (not primarily a UFM project) based on sustainable and innovative practices
(EEA, 2021). Ahmad and Hassan (2021) proposed detention cum siltation ponds with other GI
measures for the flood and sediment management in the Kosi River basin having overarching
benefits. With the increasing research on sustainable solution with the intervention of NBS,
several BGI projects have been started in many cities all over the over the world. Many
successful examples of regional and city-level implementation of NBS concept exists
worldwide, which include: Blue Green Wave, Paris; Gardens by the Bay, Singapore; City Park,
Budapest; High Line Park, New York; Sponge City Program, Wuhan; Rain City Strategy,
Vancouver and many more (BGS, 2017; Sayli and Berjis, 2021; Peng and Reilly, 2021). Four
major urban projects related to NBS or BGI, solving the urban water management issues with
multiple ecosystem services, have been briefly discussed as follows (summary in Table 2).
Living With Water

The Strategic Drainage Infrastructure Plan (SDIP) for Belfast city of Northern Ireland has been
developed to deliver the best solutions to protect against flooding, enhance the environment
and grow the economy. In November 2021, the Department for Infrastructure published the
Strategic Drainage Infrastructure Plan, entitled, “Living With Water in Belfast”. The
Department for Infrastructure and other government agencies worked collaboratively under
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‘Living With Water Programme (LWWP)’ to develop integrated and sustainable drainage
solutions. Implementation of the plan over the next 12 years has been estimated at around £1.4
billion. Living with Water promotes holistic solutions that achieve overarching benefits at
reduced cost and disruption. Such as, implementing BGI measures (urban wetlands, lakes, rain
gardens, parks) to enhance the environment can also promote recreational opportunities, and
sustainably manage water to reduce flood risk. The upgradation of sewer system and
wastewater treatment works in the city are also identified Implementation of the plan is central
to the delivery of the Floods Directive, the Water Framework Directive, the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) and the
Long-Term Water Strategy (LTWS). (LWWP, 2021)
Sponge City Programme

The concept of the Sponge City Programme (SCP) was proposed in 2013 to deal with the urban
water management challenges in the rapidly urbanising cities of China and ultimately to
achieve a sustainable urban development. Based on application of six technical measures
(infiltration, retention, storage, purification, utilization and discharge); the SCP develops
solutions to manage urban floods, improve water quality, enhance water storage and discharge
capacity, and mitigate UHI through the integration of NBS. The SCP targets at 20% and 80%
of the city area to meet the sponge city standards by 2020 and 2030 respectively; absorbing 60-
85% annual rainfall. The primary focus for sponge city construction should be conservation,
restoration and rehabilitation of natural ecosystems to build “resilience” for cities. Wuhan is
one of the cities out of 30 sponge pilot cities in China and the implementation of SCP was
initiated in the city in 2015. The infrastructures applied in Wuhan consist of rain gardens, grass
swales, bio-retention facilities, permeable pavements, infiltration trenches, and rainwater
harvesting modules. Wuhan city experienced multiple extreme and unprecedented precipitation
events during the rainy season of 2020, but no severe waterlogging occurred in any region of
the city. The Wuhan Sponge City Programme has showcased the potential of NBS and
successfully managed the flood risk in the city and achieved other social, ecological and
environmental benefits (Qi et al., 2021; Peng and Reilly, 2021; Li and Zhang, 2022).
New York City (NYC) Green Infrastructure Plan

The NYC Green Infrastructure (GI) Plan was introduced in 2010 with a 20 years plan to reduce
combined sewer overflow (CSO) with the sustainable stormwater management practices
incorporating green infrastructure measures. The NYC Department of Environmental
Protection (DEP) is the governing agency for the implementation of the city's GI Plan. “By
preventing one inch of precipitation from becoming runoff that surges into the sewers over
10% of each combined sewer watershed’s impervious area, DEP estimates that CSOs will be
reduced by approximately 1.5 billion gallon per year” (NYC, 2010). This translates to installing
GI on about 8,000 acres by 2030. The types of GI in the program consists of rain gardens,
Page 8
infiltration basins, permeable pavements, green roofs, detention basins etc. The
implementation of the NYC plan does not only reduce the CSO volume in the city but also
provides substantial co-benefits such as cooling the city, reducing energy use, cleaning the air,
groundwater recharge, habitable environment and increasing property values (NYC, 2010).
RISA Project
With the aim to develop sustainable ideas and concepts for dealing with rainwater, the
Department of Environment and Energy (BUE) and HAMBURG WATER (HW) have jointly
launched the project RISA – ‘Rain InfraStructure Adaptation’ in 2009. The project completed
in 2014. The aim of the project is to implement a sustainable rainwater management in
Hamburg that is adjusted to the heavy rainfalls attributed to global climate change. The project
involves the analysis of pilot projects, including GIS-based analysis and the development of an
integrated rainwater structure plan for Hamburg for fulfilling the long-term goals and providing
a scientific basis for the city’s rainwater management strategy (“Structural Plan Rainwater
2030”) to integrate water management measures into urban and spatial planning and to adapt
institutional framework conditions to the changes. Incorporating the nature-based solutions,
the ultimate goals of the project are: Future-oriented and sustainable handling of rainwater;
Flood protection and inland flood control; Sustainable urban drainage systems; Water body
conservation; Near-natural water balance; Climate change adaptation; and other ecosystem
services. (https://www.hamburg.de/risa/)
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Table 2: Summary of BGI adoption plans in the major global cities analyzed in the present study
Name of BGI projects Metropolis Population Area Major Objectives References
(sq. km)
Living With Water Belfast 3,36,830 115 • To reduce flood risk in compliance with the LWWP, 2021;
Plan Floods Directives and to support development https://www.infrastructure-
(North Ireland) ni.gov.uk/topics/living-water-
(2021-present) • To improve the quality of water in the rivers and programme
Belfast Lough
• Climate change adaptation and increased

resilience by integrating BGI measures
Sponge City Wuhan 1,06,00,000 8494 • To manage urban floods, improve water quality, Qi et al., 2021; Peng and Reilly,
Programme enhance water storage and discharge capacity, 2021; Li and Zhang, 2022.
(China) and mitigate UHI through integration of NBS.
(2013-present)
• Targets at 80% of the city area to meet the
sponge city standards by 2030; absorbing 60-
85% annual rainfall.
NYC Green New York 1,95,67,410 34,490 • To reduce CSO through the sustainable NYC, 2010; McPhearson et al.,
Infrastructure Plan stormwater management practices incorporating 2014; Shakya and Ahiablame,
(USA) GI measures; with additional UES 2021.
(2010-2030)
RISA Project Hamburg 16,98,688 755 • To develop an integrated rainwater structure https://www.hamburg.de/risa/
plan for Hamburg - “Structural Plan Rainwater
(2009-2015) (Germany) 2030” https://una.city/nbs/hamburg/risa-
rainwater-infrastructure-
• To implement BGI measures for water adaptation-hamburg
management, recreation in dense settlements,
climate change adaptation
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3.3 Challenges in BGI intervention for Indian cities
Technical, social, and institutional barriers are major deterrent to the development of BGI
integrated system. Recent studies have highlighted the significant insights into these barriers,
which varied across the countries with different legislation, economy and industrial
development. Despite varied issues, there exists several universal themes related to BGI
integration (Almaaitah et al., 2021). In India, every city has some unique set of problems due
to the vast diversity in socio-economic culture, demography and hydro-meteorology. But the
analysis of the major BGI projects in the cities across the globe would be proven to be quite
helpful in developing BGI frameworks to address the flood and stormwater management in
Indian cities. Analysing the factors causing urban flooding in India, some of major challenges
in BGI intervention in Indian cities which need to be addressed are as follows.
• Declining of natural landscapes: Despite the importance of the blue and green spaces
to the community and environment, these natural spaces are declining and impervious
surfaces are increasing in urban areas of India due to rampant urbanisation.
• Demographical features of city: Most of the cities, especially the older cities (like
Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow, Bhopal, Surat, Hyderabad) exhibit very high population
density; making the existing combined sewer system inadequate. In such cases, the
designing and remodelling separate sewer system with SuDS measures will be quite
challenging.
• Uncertainties regarding hydrologic and ecologic performance of BGI: Due to the
knowledge gaps and lack of research for the nature–based solutions in India, BGI may
not be initially treated as an important dimension for the urban planners and some local
authorities.
• Constraints of funding: In a developing nation like India, investing million dollars on
the BGI projects will not be easy; that too in the lack of the extensive researches and
lack of risk reduction framework on BGI.
• Lack of enforceable standards of BGI at the policy making and planning level:
However, the Government of India initiated the major urban transformation program
‘Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation’ (AMRUT) focusing on the
provision of stormwater drains, water supply, sewerage, green spaces and public
transport in 500 cities of India (Gupta, 2020). At planning and policy making stage,
there is a lack of enforceable standards for a certain quality and quantity of BGI in new
or existing developments.
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4. Conclusions
The socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate change are accelerating across the
globe, resulting in ever-increasing severe adverse effects on ecosystem. The increasing
researches on climatology, the problems like global warming and extreme climatic events
(droughts and floods) are also attributed to the adverse effects of climate change. The loss of
blue- green spaces and increasing impermeable surfaces associated with rampant urbanization
disrupts the natural drainage system leading to an increase in both the volume and peak of
surface runoff. Such hydrologic disruptions associated with LULC change in urban areas
increase the risk of flooding and many other environmental problems like urban heat islands
and undesired ecological impacts. In India, the intensification of urban sprawls is a major issue,
which is worsening the consequences of climate change with the increasing frequency and
magnitude of urban flooding. The present study discusses urban flooding scenario in India and
the need of sustainable approach of urban flood management in India, as the existing drainage
infrastructure across the country seems to be insufficient and non-sustainable to face the
climatic extremes.
The changing archetype of urban flood management with the novel researches have shown the
effectiveness of the integration of BGI to manage the urban flooding with many other UES
(such as aesthetics, urban water supply, UHI mitigation, improved water quality, improved air
quality, urban agriculture, biodiversity, Recreation and well-being). The analysis of the four
major BGI projects in different cities of the world has been presented to understand the
potentials of BGI intervention for urban water management. The findings emphasised on the
need of paradigm shift from traditional approaches to BGI based approach for the urban flood
management in India. As the cities across world are working to move towards climate change
adaptation strategies, BGI measures should be an integral part of future urban living. It can be
concluded that resilient, sustainable and non-traditional solutions are no longer a choice rather
a compulsion. Urban planners should not ignore any aspect of urban water system and a
collaborative work with water professionals is needed at the early stages of urban planning to
develop a sustainable urban water management system. Developing a nature-based integrated
and sustainable approach for urban flood management is not only essential to urban flood
management but it will also derive multiple ecosystem benefits regarding urban well-being and
to maintain natural hydrologic regime.
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Steady Flow Analysis and Floodplain Mapping using HEC-RAS
Manwar, R.Y.1, Ghare, A.D.2

1
Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology,
Nagpur - 440010, INDIA
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology,
Nagpur - 440010, INDIA
Email: rohinimanwar9@gmail.com
Abstract
Flood is a severe natural disaster that can destroy many resources and cause loss of lives-, and
health issues. Due to the overtopping of river banks water flows over the flood plain and it can
damage many important structures, property, and crops within the flood plain thus causing
agricultural loss-, and economic loss. To overcome these problems floodplain maps can be
beneficial. These maps give a visualization of inundated areas. HEC-RAS (Hydrologic
Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System) is an effective tool for flood modeling, it is
widely used to analyze the behaviour of river flow. In the present study, steady flow analysis
and floodplain mapping have been performed using HEC-RAS software. The geometry file is
created using the RAS Mapper tool. The study area selected is a 31.153 km longitudinal stretch
of Penganga River passing by Kanhargaon village which is a discharge and gauging station
situated in the Hingoli district of Maharashtra state. The required discharge data is collected
from the Central Water Commission website. Gumbel’s Distribution Model and Log Pearson
Type-3 Distribution have been used for calculating the peak flood discharges with return
periods of 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year. The result of the steady flow analysis gives the water
surface elevation values at each cross-section of the river during floods. The inundation
boundary length and area of floodplain maps have been measured. As most of the agricultural
areas near villages Ukalipen, Kherda, and Bhuli are found submerged, these areas can be
considered vulnerable to flood inundation. The maximum inundated area obtained is 21.852
km2. The outputs of the study could be useful for flood control authorities to take necessary
actions to prevent agricultural losses and flooding damage in the study area.
Keywords: HEC-RAS, RAS Mapper, Steady Flow Analysis, Floodplain Mapping,

Gumbel’s Distribution Model, Log Pearson Type-3 Distribution.
1. Introduction
Flood is one of the unpredictable and calamitous events that can destroy many resources. Flood
may occur due to heavy rainfall, overflowing rivers, increase in global temperature, storm surge,
tsunamis, channels with steep banks, A lack of vegetation, snow melts and dam breaks or levees
break, etc. The parameters that govern the flood are runoff, rainfall, return period, and catchment
characteristics. Floods can occur anywhere. The overflowing flood water submerges the land.
The effects of flooding are devastating to the community. There are many types of floods i.e.,
river flood, coastal flood, storm surge, inland flood, flash flood, etc. Each type of flood causes
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negative effects on society and the environment. Various types of floods have various causes. The
consequences of floods are loss of lives-, and damage to natural resources and the environment.
Flooding may also cause health issues and psychosocial flooding effects. Due to the overtopping
of river banks water flows over the floodplain and it can damage many important structures,
valuable property, and crops within the flood plain thus causing agricultural loss-, and economic
loss. To overcome these problems floodplain maps can be beneficial.
Flood can be analyzed with the help of a hydraulic model in advance. There is a need to forecast
the behaviour of the stream for various recurrence intervals of storm events to obtain a floodplain
map. Flood modeling is an important tool that provides precise information about flood profiles.
For various flood intensities with various return periods, the flood profiles can be plotted at any
cross-section of the river. To simulate velocity, flow, depth, and inundated area there are various
computer models available such as HEC-RAS, HEC-HMS, River-2D or TELEMAC-2D,
MIKE11, etc. (H & Ravikumar, 2020). In the present study, HEC-RAS software is used, as it is
easy to use and it is open-source software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has
developed the Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic
flow model. (HEC-RAS) has the capability to model flood events. The RAS Mapper is a HEC-
RAS tool that has the ability to create geometry file without using any extension like HEC-
GeoRAS. With the help of RAS Mapper, stream centre line, bank lines, flow path lines, and cross-
section cut lines can be digitized on a particular river, which is useful to get the necessary
information to perform steady flow analysis. It is useful for floodplain mapping. Flood inundation
length and area can be obtained using RAS Mapper. Inundation area, flow depths, and velocities
help in flood risk assessment. By examining the flood inundation area and extent of inundation it
is easy to detect which parts of the vicinity are coming under submergence. This information can
be beneficial for flood control authorities to make choices about properly allotting resources in
emergencies and improving quality of life. Flood inundation mapping is a crucial tool for,
emergency action plans, flood insurance rates, engineers and policymakers, urban and municipal
growth planning, and ecological studies.
2.1 Methodology
HEC-RAS software and RAS Mapper tool of HEC-RAS are used to perform steady flow analysis
and to create floodplain maps to extract necessary information from flood events which include
information of river water profiles and the extent of inundation. Figure 1 shows the flow chart
for the methodology.
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Selecting the study

area and collecting
required data
Calculating the
discharge data
Creating the model

in RAS Mapper
Performing the steady flow
analysis of the flood events
in HEC-RAS
Viewing the results (profile
output tables) and creating
floodplain maps.
Figure 1 Flow chart for the methodology
2.2.1 Study area
The study area selected is a 31.153 km longitudinal stretch of Penganga River passing by
Kanhargaon village. Kanhargaon/ Kanergaon is a discharge and gauging station which is
situated in the Hingoli district of Maharashtra. The latitude of the Kanhargaon site is 19°57"37'
and the longitude is 77°09"03'. In the present study, Kanhargaon site is considered as upstream
of the river as maximum discharge data at this site is available which is required to perform
steady flow analysis. Most of the floodplains in the study area are flat terrain and there is no
proper levees system along the river banks so the study area is best suitable for 1-D steady flow
analysis.
Figure 2 shows the location of Kanhargaon site with respect to the map of Maharashtra. It has
been taken from Bhuvan-2D ISRO’s geoportal. Figure 3 shows Penganga River and
Kanhargaon village. It has been taken from google earth pro.
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Figure 2 Map of Maharashtra
Figure 3 Kanhargaon, Hingoli, Maharashtra
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2.2.2 Data collection and software used
To perform steady flow analysis the following data has been collected.
SRTM 30M DEM DATA: A 30m resolution SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM
(digital elevation model) has been downloaded from the opentopography.org website. Digital
depiction of the earth’s surface is called DEM.
PROJECTION FILE: The projection file has been downloaded from the spatial reference
organisation website. The projection file is useful to create terrain in RAS Mapper.
DISCHARGE DATA: To perform steady flow analysis, maximum discharge data at upstream
of any stream is required. At the Kanhargaon site, maximum discharge data of 25 years from
the year 1993 to 2017 is available in the water year book. The hydro-meteorological water year
book of the Godavari basin for the year 2017-2018 has been downloaded from the CWC
website which comes under Krishna/ Godavari basin organization, Hyderabad.
MANNING’S ROUGHNESS CO-EFFICIENT: Manning’s n value is a very important

parameter. It is highly variable and it depends on different factors like vegetation, channel
irregularities, surface roughness, etc. Based on the study area Manning’s roughness coefficient
has been taken from HEC-RAS Hydraulic Reference Manual 2016(Chapter3).
HEC-RAS: HEC-RAS software is used to perform steady flow analysis.
RAS MAPPER: RAS Mapper tool is used to create a geometry file, in which stream centre line,
bank lines, flow path lines, and cross-section cut lines are digitized.
Stream or river centre line is needed to georeference the location of the river. It is digitized along
the river length. Bank lines are needed to georeference the location of river banks. Bank lines are
useful to differentiate the river from the floodplain areas. Flow path lines give information about
water flow direction. They are digitized within the floodplain and they are used to compute the
distance between cross-sections in the overbank areas. Cross-section cut lines are useful to
extract elevation data from the terrain. They are digitized perpendicular to the flow direction.
They must cross the river centre line, bank lines, and flow path lines.
2.3 Calculation of Maximum Discharge
From the available discharge data, the maximum discharge values for the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100-
year return periods have been calculated by using Gumbel’s Distribution Model and Log
Pearson Type 3 Distribution.
Gumbel’s Distribution Model: using equation (1) the maximum discharge values for different
Page 5
return year periods (T) have been calculated which are shown in table 1.
𝑄𝑇 = 𝑄̅ + 𝑘 ⋅ 𝜎𝑛−1 (1)
where,
QT = Maximum discharge
𝑄̅ = Mean
K = frequency factor
𝜎𝑛−1 = standard deviation
YT = reduced variate
Table 1 Result of Gumbel’s Distribution Model

T(year) YT K QT (m3/s)
5 1.49994 0.88781 1444.02
10 2.25037 1.57533 1974.11
25 3.19853 2.44401 2643.89
50 3.90194 3.08845 3140.76
100 4.60015 3.72813 3633.97
Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution: Calculation of log of design flood for desired return period
(T) by using equation (2)
𝑦𝑇 = 𝑦̅ + 𝑘 ⋅ 𝜎𝑛 (2)
Where,
k =frequency factor
𝑦̅ = mean
𝜎𝑛 = Standard deviation
QT = antilog of YT (3)
The maximum discharge values for 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100- year return period has been
calculated using equation (3) which are shown in table 2.
Table 2 Result of Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution

T(year) KT YT QT (m3/s)
5 0.83348 3.039955 1096.364
10 1.29578 3.238996 1733.787
25 1.79886 3.455594 2854.922
50 2.12884 3.597666 3959.73
100 2.43024 3.727432 5338.655
The calculated maximum discharge values have been entered as input parameters in HEC-
RAS.
Page 6
Penganga River is a natural stream and it is clean and winding so 0.030, 0.033, 0.040, and 0.045
have been selected as Manning’s n values at different cross-sections of the river according to the
winding of the river. And most of the floodplain is a cultivated area so 0.035 has been selected as
Manning’s n value for the right of bank (ROB) and left of bank (LOB).
At Kanhargaon discharge and gauging station, a maximum discharge value of 3009 m3/s was
measured in the year 2007. This value and the calculated maximum discharge values have been
selected as input parameter to HEC-RAS. Normal depth has been selected as a boundary
condition at the downstream end of the river. And downstream slope selected is 0.001. The flow
regime assumed as subcritical as the flow is fairly flat.
2.5 Modelling and analysis
The approach to floodplain mapping is followed by two stages.

Stage 1- Pre-processing of data
In this stage set the projection by adding the projection file. Create new terrain by adding DEM.
Then create new geometry. In the present study, a 31.153 km long river centreline has been
digitized and a total of 158 cross-section cut lines have been digitized across the river length.
Stage 2- HEC-RAS model execution
In this stage add selected Manning’s n value and maximum discharge data. Then the run steady
flow simulation, simultaneously floodplain mapping can also be done. In the present study, 6
bridges have been added across the river at their respective locations using the bridge culvert data
editor window. They have been added approximately as bridge information is not available.
The result of the steady flow analysis is obtained in the form of profile output tables, cross-
section output, and floodplain maps.
Profile output tables for different return periods calculated by Gumbel’s Distribution Model
and Log Pearson Type-3 distribution have been obtained. It includes the values of minimum
channel elevation, water surface elevation, energy gradeline elevation, energy grade line slope,
velocity in channel, flow area, top width, Froude number, etc. at each cross section.
In the year 2007, the maximum discharge value equal to 3009 m3/s was measured at Kanhargaon
discharge and gauging station which is the highest value measured in 25 years. Figure 4 shows
the floodplain map for this value and Table 3 shows the obtained Inundation area and
inundation length.
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Figure 4 Floodplain map for the year 2007
Table 3 Inundation area and inundation length

year Discharge Inundation area Inundation length
3
(m /s)
2007 3009 17.674 km2 124.916 km
Figure 5 and figure 6 shows the floodplain maps for the 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100- year return
period calculated by using Gumbel’s Distribution Model and Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution.
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Figure 5 Floodplain maps for return periods calculated by Gumbel’s Distribution Model
Figure 6 Floodplain maps for return periods calculated by Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution
Page 9
Table 4 Maximum discharge value and Inundation area

Log Pearson Type-3
Gumbel’s Distribution Model
Distribution
Return
Period
Discharge
Discharge Inundation Inundation area
(m3/s)
(m3/s) area (Km2) (Km2)
5-year 1444.017 13.208 1096.364 11.779
10-year 1974.111 15.004 1733.787 14.269
25-year 2643.886 16.821 2854.922 17.317
3140.764 17.975 3959.73 19.568

50- year
3633.972 18.994 5338.655 21.852
100-year
Table 4 shows the obtained inundation area and maximum discharge values for different return
periods. Inundation lengths are also obtained in the result. From the result, it has been observed
that as the return period increases inundation area also increases.
Figure 7 shows the flood inundation map for the 100-year return period calculated by using
Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution.
After examining flood inundation areas, it is noticeable that a large part of agricultural areas is
under submergence.
From the graphical representation of various cross-sections, it has been observed that the river
banks are overtopped and the agricultural land on both banks of the river is inundated.
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Figure 7 Flood inundation map for the 100-year return period
4. Conclusions
The following conclusions are derived from the present study:

(i) The result of the steady flow analysis gives the water surface elevation values at each
cross-section of the river during floods, along with minimum channel elevation, energy
grade line elevation, energy grade line slope, channel velocity, flow area, top width, and
Froude number, etc. This information could be useful for the construction of any hydraulic
structure and flood control.
(ii) The maximum discharge value calculated for the 100-year return period using Log
Pearson Type 3 Distribution has been found to be the highest which is equal to 5338.655
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m3/s. The flood inundation map for this discharge value shows the maximum inundated
area of 21.852 km2.
(iii)From floodplain maps it has been observed that with the increase in return period, the
flood inundation area also increases.
(iv) After examining floodplain maps, it has been observed that most of the agricultural area
is submerged. The flood plain areas near villages Ukalipen, Kherda, and Bhuli may be
considered vulnerable areas as most of the cultivated land in these areas has been found
inundated.
(v) To prevent agricultural losses and flooding damage, levees can be constructed along the
river banks in vulnerable areas. The results of this study could be useful for flood control
authorities. They could take necessary actions to prevent flood damage-, and agricultural
loss in the study area. These findings could also be useful for water management and
allocation in the study area.
(vi) From the results, the utility of the RAS Mapper tool can be seen as the floodplain maps
have been created without using ARC-GIS and HEC-GeoRAS extension which is
expensive. Also, flood inundation area and inundation boundary length can be obtained
easily.
References
Kute, S., Kakad, S., Bhoye, V., & Walunj, A. (2014). Flood modeling of river Godavari using HEC-
RAS. Int J Res Eng Technol, 3(09), 81-87.
Traore, V. B., Bop, M., Faye, M., Malomar, G., Gueye, E. H. O., Sambou, H., ... & Beye, A. C. (2015).
Using of Hec-ras model for hydraulic analysis of a river with agricultural vocation: A case study
of the Kayanga river basin, Senegal. American Journal of Water Resources, 3(5), 147-154.
Ahmad, H. F., Alam, A., Bhat, M. S., & Ahmad, S. (2016). One Dimensional Steady Flow Analysis
Using HECRAS–A case of River Jhelum, Jammu and Kashmir. Eur. Sci. J, 12, 340-350.
İcaga, Y., Tas, E., & Kilit, M. (2016). Flood inundation mapping by GIS and a hydraulic model (HEC
RAS): A case study of Akarcay Bolvadin subbasin, in Turkey. Acta Geobalcanica, 2(2), 111-118.
Hajibayov, F., Ozkul, B. D., & Terzi, F. (2017). Floodplain modeling and mapping using the
geographical information systems (GIS) and Hec-RAS/Hec-GeoRAS applications: case of
edirne, Turkey. Geo Inf Sci Res–UK (GISRUK). The University of Manchester
Ukraine.
Adeniran, K. A., Ottawale, Y. A., & Ogunshina, M. S. (2018). Mapping and Evaluation of Flood Risk
Areas along Asa River using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques. FUOYE Journal of
Engineering and Technology, 3(2), 12-16.
Issac, E., Pavan, R., Prashanth, R. M., & Apoorva, K. V. (2019). Steady flow Analysis of Gurupura
River Using Hec-Ras Software. International Journal of Innovative Research in Applied Sciences
and Engineering, 3(1), 432-434.
Pathan, A. I., & Agnihotri, P. G. G. One Dimensional Flood Modelling using RAS-mapper Tools in
HEC-RAS-A Case Study on Purna River, Navsari City.
H, P., & Ravikumar, A. S. (2020). Analysis of Steady Flow using HEC-RAS and GIS Techniques.
International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT), 9(1).
HEC-RAS River Analysis System, Hydraulic Reference Manual Version 5.0. (2016). US Army corps
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CENTRAL WATER COMISSION. ((JUNE 2017-MAY 2018)). DISCHARGEYEAR BOOK (VOL. 1),
GODAVARI BASIN. GOVERNMENT OF INDIA. (http://www.cwc.gov.in/)
(http://www.cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/admin/10BGBWYB17-18.pdf)
https://portal.opentopography.org/
https://spatialreference.org/
Page 13
Impact of Climate Change on The Hydro-Meteorological Trends in

Kashmir Valley
Jami, S.1 and Hassan, Q.2 *
1
M. Tech, Environmental Science & Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi -110025, INDIA
; Email: shahnawaz2003511@st.jmi.ac.in
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi -110025, INDIA
*Corresponding author; Email: qhassan@jmi.ac.in
Abstract
For a Himalayan ecosystem, the impacts of climate change are magnified due to variable
topography, fragile ecosystem, and socio-economic aspects of the population. The Kashmir
valley, situated in the lap of mighty Himalayan ranges, is susceptible to disastrous
consequences, due to the perturbations in different climatic variables. The present study
focuses on the trends in various hydro-meteorological parameters including mean maximum
temperature (Tmax), mean minimum temperature (Tmin), rainfall, mean relative humidity (RH),
and average discharge in Jhelum River. The required data was obtained from IMD, Srinagar
for six meteorological stations and from I&FC Srinagar at three gauging stations for a time
period of 1990-2020. The trend analysis was carried out at annual and seasonal scales using
the Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test along with the Sen’s Slope estimator. The results
revealed a significant rise in Tmax on the annual scale for the low-lying stations while a non-
significant rise at high-elevation stations. At the seasonal scale, Tmax shows significant rising
trends in winter and spring at most of the stations. The annual trends of Tmin revealed a
significant rise for three stations in the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) and a non-significant fall at
two stations in the Lower Jhelum Basin (LJB). At the seasonal scale, the spring showed a
consistent rise in Tmin at all stations, significant at two stations of UJB. The rainfall showed
insignificant variations at the annual scale but the spring season reflects a falling trend at all
the stations significant at three stations. The trends in relative humidity showed significant
variations on both sides of the scale (rise and fall) with no definite pattern in trends. In
hydrological trend analysis, the average discharge of the river Jhelum exhibited a steep and
significant fall at both annual and seasonal scales, with the highest fall in the spring season.
Keywords: Climate Change, Kashmir Valley, Jhelum River, Hydro-Meteorological Trends,

Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test.
1. Introduction
Various studies in recent times have alarmed mankind about the dangers of climate change and
the very existential threat it poses to every sphere of life. Climate change encompasses a vast
domain. It includes numerous ecological, meteorological, hydrological, and geographical
indicators, etc. (Dad et al., 2021). The dangers associated with climate change are severe for
the mountain communities, due to their high dependency on agro-based ecosystems and natural
Page 1
resources (FAO, 2015). The valley of Kashmir due to its location, geography, glacial-fed rivers,
and fragile ecology is at substantial risk from the ugly effects of change in the various climatic
parameters (Islam et al., 2019)(J&K ENVIS, 2015). There have been many critical weather
events in the recent past that have raised an alarm among the farmer community about the
erratic behavior of weather in the valley (Mahdi et al., 2021). Apart from this, the primary
source of water for the valley is the river Jhelum (Mehmood et al., 2017). This river is a glacial-
fed perennial river. It also boosts many economic sectors like fishing, tourism, and
hydroelectricity. A fall in the average discharge of the Jhelum River was reported by many
studies (Lone et al., 2022; Romshoo et al., 2018). The current study takes into account the
variations in the Hydro-Meteorological aspects of Kashmir valley. The variations in the
hydrometeorological data are a potent indicator of climate change (Rosmann et al., 2016).
Climate is usually defined as the average or mean weather and variability of relevant quantities
over a period of time. Valley of Kashmir has a Sub-Mediterranean type climate with four
seasons, winter (December–February), spring (March–May), summer (June–August) and
autumn (September–November) (Dad et al., 2021). The winters are generally severe and harsh
and summers are hot while spring is wet and autumn usually remains dry (Islam, 2013).
The rise in the surface temperature on earth may lead to variations in precipitation and
atmospheric moisture, which can impact the hydrological cycle of the area (Dore, 2005). All
of these parameters are potent indicators of climate and its variations. Also, the precipitation
over an area depends on the temperature, humidity, winds, etc. and the discharge in the river
depends on the precipitation, temperature, basin characteristics, etc. Among the various effects
of climate change, rainfall and temperature are the most important parameters which are often
studied to ascertain the magnitude of the climatic variability of any region (Rana et al., 2017).
Erratic patterns in precipitation and the warm winters have been witnessed in the Kashmir
valley (Bhat et al., 2015). For the temperature, the upper and lower bounds i.e., the maximum
temperatures and minimum temperatures show higher variations as compared to the average
temperatures. The rise in the temperature alters the precipitation cycles, wind patterns, and
overall hydrology of the area (Rannow and Neubert, 2014). The other parameter of interest is
the relative humidity near the ground. Humidity is the content of water vapor present in the air.
Relative humidity (RH) is a more significant term in the field of hydrology, meteorology,
agriculture, and, ecology. It is calculated as the ratio of the water vapor content in the air to the
water vapor content of the saturated air at the same temperature. Since the saturation vapor
percentage is a function of the air temperature, hence the RH should reflect significant
variations with the alterations in temperature. Maximum relative humidity occurs in the early
morning while as minimum relative humidity occurs in the early afternoon. It is generally
observed that the RH of ground is not widely studied under the umbrella of indicators of climate
change but their patterns may reflect significant clues concerning climate change. Moreover,
the RH of the ground directly effects the biota of the area. Variations in RH affect plant water
relations and drastically impact production by affecting leaf growth, disease occurrence, and
pollination (Ding and Wang, 2010) . The rise in the RH causes discomfort to living organisms
and can lead to extreme heat stresses on continuous exposure.
The other important aspect of the study is to access the change in the hydrological behavior of
the basin. Since the hydrology of any area is dependent on the meteorological conditions and
the basin characteristics, the climatic and anthropogenic changes may reflect significant
impacts on the flow of the rivers in the basin. The study area is drained by a vast network of
Page 2
the tributaries of river Jhelum which is itself a tributary of the Indus River system. This river
system is perennial with significant contributions from the glaciers on the upper reaches of the
basin. A general fall has been observed in the average discharges of the river in previous studies
(Zaz and Romshoo, 2017).
2.1 Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test and Sen’s Slope Estimator
The trend analysis for all the parameters was carried out using the Modified Mann-Kendall
Trend Test in combination with Sen’s slope estimator using XL-STAT which is an extension
tool in MS Excel for data analysis. The data sets from the meteorological observatories were
available on monthly basis. The data sets for the mean maximum temperature, mean minimum
temperature, and relative humidity were averaged on annual and seasonal scales to obtain the
data sets in the respective time scales. For rainfall, the annual and seasonal scales were obtained
by adding the corresponding values in that scale.
The discharge data of the three gauging stations were available for random days in a month
with a minimum of three readings in a month. The annual, seasonal, and monthly data sets for
the discharge were obtained by averaging the discharges in that particular time scale. The null
values (less than 1%) in the discharge data were processed using the neighbor averaging tool
using the inbuilt tool in XL-STAT.
Various methods have been adopted by different researchers for analyzing the trends and
magnitudes of parameters. The most common methods for trend analysis are Mann-Kendall’s
Trend Test, Student t test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Linear regression analysis, etc. Mann-
Kendall is considered the best exploratory analysis in the case of distribution-free climatic data
(Hirsch et al.,1982). With Hamed and Rao’s correction, the Modified MK test takes care of the
possible autocorrelation in the data sets. Also, Sen’s Slope estimator has been used to find the
magnitude of various trends in the parameters. The climatic data usually contain many outliers
which may significantly impact the linear regression. Sen’s slope gives a better result than
linear regression as it is insensitive to outliers. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test is a
statistical test widely used for the trend analysis in climatologic and hydrologic time series and
clubbed with Sen’s slope estimator, it becomes a perfect combination for the trend analysis of
the climatic data.
Mann-Kendall’s test is be described below

The Mann-Kendall Statistic ‘S’ is calculated as shown below
𝑛
S=∑𝑛−1
𝑘=1 ∑𝑗=𝑘+1 sgn( 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 )
The trend test is done on a time series xk which is ranked from k = 1, 2, 3 . . . n− 1 and xj,
which is ranked from j = 2, 3. . . n. Each of the data point xk is taken as a reference point
which is compared with the rest of the data point’s xj as
+1 , 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 > 0
𝑠𝑔𝑛 (𝑥j – 𝑥k) = { 0 , 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 = 0
−1 , 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 < 0
Page 3
n is the No. of data points in the time series (years) and xj & xk are data values in time series j
and k where j>k, and sgn (xj-xk) is the sign function.
The variance of S is calculated as
1
𝑉(𝑆) = 18[𝑛 (𝑛 − 1) (2𝑛 + 5) − ∑𝑞𝑝=1 𝑡𝑝 (𝑡p − 1) (2𝑡p + 5)]
where tp is the number of data points in the pth bound group, and q is the number of bound
groups in the data set.
The Z- statistic is calculated as

𝑆−1
𝑖𝑓 𝑆 > 0
√𝑉(𝑆)
Z(S) = 0 𝑖𝑓 𝑆 = 0
𝑆+1
𝑖𝑓 𝑆 < 0
{√𝑉(𝑆)
To minimize the error due to autocorrelation and serial dependance which usually occurs in
hydrological and meteorological timeseries, Hamed and Rao (1998) suggest a modified Mann-
Kendall test, which finds the autocorrelation in-between the ranks of the data.
The corrected variance is given by
1 𝑁
𝑉(𝑆) = [𝑁(𝑁 − 1)(2𝑁 + 5)]
18 𝑁𝑆 ∗
𝑁 2 𝑝
Where = 1 + 𝑁(𝑁−1)(𝑁−2) ∑𝑖=1(𝑁 − 𝑖)(𝑁 − 𝑖 − 1)(𝑁 − 𝑖 − 2)𝑝𝑠 (𝑖)
𝑁𝑆 ∗
N is the number of observations in the sample, NS* is the effective number of observations to
account for autocorrelation in the data, 𝑝𝑠 (𝑖) is the autocorrelation between ranks of the
observations for lag i, and p is the maximum time lag under consideration.
From the Z values obtained, the corresponding ‘p’ values are calculated. The significance level
for the metrological parameters was chosen as 10% also known as alpha.
Any value of “p<0.1” depicts a nonsignificant trend for meteorological time series. Most of the
trend results showed non-significant results at 5% significance. Hence 10% significance level
was chosen for the meteorological data.
While as for the river discharge analysis, a finer 5% level of significance was chosen. Hence p
values <0.05 depicted a significant trend.
The magnitude of the pattern can be estimated by Sen estimator. Sen's Slope is a better choice
as compared to the linear regression as the Sen's Slope test is not influenced by the outliers and
data errors.
𝑥 −𝑥𝑘
𝑄 = 𝑗𝑗−𝑘
xj and xk are data values at time j and k (j > k), respectively. If there are n values of xj in the
time series, there will be N = n(n-1)/2 slope estimates. The values of Q (N in number) are sorted
from smallest to largest, then Sen's Slope (Qmed) for the median is obtained.
𝑄𝑁+1 𝑖𝑓 𝑁 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑑𝑑
2
Q med ={𝑄𝑁 + 𝑄𝑁+1
2 2
𝑖𝑓 𝑁 𝑖𝑠 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛
2
Page 4
2.2.1 Study Area
The Valley of Kashmir is elliptical and bowl-shaped located between 32° 22′–34° 43′N latitude
and 73° 52′–75° 42′E longitudes. It is located between the Himalayan range on its northern side
and the southern part is bounded by the Pir Panjal range of mountains. The valley floor lies at
an elevation of 1500 m above the sea level but the topography is diverse with mountains
surrounding the plains and many Karewa hills. The Valley is drained by a vast network of
tributaries of river Jhelum. The river Jhelum originates from Verinag spring which is located
in district Anantnag from where it flows through Srinagar, and drains into Wular lake. Wular
is the second largest fresh water lake in Asia (Ganaie et al., 2021). Through this lake the Jhelum
flows to Baramulla. The river covers a distance of 400 km in the valley draining about 34,775
sq km of the catchment. Jhelum receives its waters from the direct rainfall runoff, glacial melt
and the seasonal snow packs. Jhelum being the primary water sources for the population here
is susceptible to the climate change its impacts on rainfall, glaciers and seasonal snow cover
(Romshoo et al., 2018). The winter precipitation is mostly in the form of snow which helps in
sustaining the water in the river round the year. The glacial melt and the base flow are
significant contributors to the discharge in the river in the late summer season and autumn
season. Apart from the snow, this basin receives a 681mm/year of annual rainfall which
significantly effects the discharge of the river(Lone et al., 2022).Jhelum basin has an efficient
drainage system with 24 major tributaries and some of them are Nallah Lidder, Nallah Sindh,
Nallah Vishow, Rambiara Nallah, Dudhganga River and Pohru River. Here the study area is
catagorised as Upper Jhelum basin containing the meteorological stations of Pahalgam
,Kokernag ,Qazigund and Srinagar and river gauging stations of Sangam and Ram-
Munshibagh. While as the lower Jhelum basin is reffered for the catchments containing
Gulmarg and Kupwara Station with Baramulla as gauging station.
The data for the current study includes the meteorological data and the hydrologic data of the
basin. Being an area of diverse topography, the meteorological data for the basin was obtained
for six stations spanning across the valley from the mountainous and high elevation stations
like Kokernag, Pahalgam and Gulmarg to the low-lying stations like Qazigund, Srinagar and
Kupwara. For the river discharge, the data was collected from Irrigation and Flood Control
Department, Kashmir for three gauging stations viz. Sangam which is an upstream station,
Ram-Munshibagh (Srinagar) lying in the center and the terminal station Baramulla (Refer
fig.1). The data of following parameters was obtained from the Indian Meteorological
Department Srinagar for a time period 1990-2020: (1) Monthly Rainfall (2) Mean Monthly
Temperature Minimum (3) Mean Monthly Temperature Maximum (4) Mean Monthly Relative
Humidity at 08:30 Hrs. (5) Mean Monthly Relative Humidity at 17:30 Hrs.
Page 5
Station Latitude N Longitude E Elevation Data Period Data Period
(meters) (Rainfall, Max Temp, Min Temp.) (Relative
Humidity)
Kokernag 33° 40' 75° 17' 1920 1990-2020 1998-2020
Qazigund 33° 35' 75° 05 1690 1990-2020 1998-2020
Pahalgam 34° 02' 75° 20' 2310 1990-2020 1998-2020
Srinagar 34° 05' 74° 50' 1588 1990-2020 1990-2020
Gulmarg 34° 03' 74°24' 2705 1990-2020 1998-2020
Kupwara 34° 25' 74° 18' 1609 1993-2020 1998-2020
Table 1: Location of meteorological stations
Station Latitude N Longitude E Catchment Area Data Period

Km2
Sangam 33° 50' 75° 4' 3731 1990-2020
Ram Munshibagh 34° 4' 74° 48' 5490 1990-2020
Baramulla 34° 12' 74° 19' 13604 1990-2020
Table 2: Location of river gauging stations
Figure 1: Map of study area with location of stations
2.3 Data Processing
The meteorological data obtained on monthly basis was processed. The null entries (less than
1%) were found in some data sets which were treated using neighbor average tool, an inbuilt
feature of XL-Stat while using MMK-Trend test. The river data obtained for the three stations
Page 6
was available on randomly distributed days across a month, hence an average monthly value
of discharge was considered for the analysis. The monthly data sets hence obtained were
averaged on annual scales and seasonal scales. The rainfall data was summed to obtain the data
sets on annual and seasonal scales. MK trend test is the best one to serve the purpose of finding
the trend. Moreover, the missing data entries in the data sets do not largely impact the results
of the MK trend test. Mann-Kendall is considered the best exploratory analysis in case of a
distribution free climatic data (Hirsch et al.,1982). Also, the Sen’s Slope estimator has been
used to find the magnitude of various trends in the parameters. The climatic data usually contain
many outliners which may significantly impact the linear regression. The trend analysis for all
the parameters was carried out using Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test in combination with
the Sen’s slope estimator using XL-STAT which is an extension tool in MS-Excel for data
analysis.
The significance level of 10% was chosen for the meteorological parameters because at 5%
significance level most of the data sets showed insignificant variation. The analysis for the river
discharge data was done at a significance level of 5%.
The detailed analysis has been carried out for all the parameters under consideration using XL-
STAT tool of MS-EXCEL software, and the results are described in the following paragraphs.
The significant trends are highlighted in the bold.
The Flow chart of the Methodology is presented below:
Data Collection ( Meteorological and Hydrological )
Data Processing (Preparing data sets on Monthly , Seasonal and Annual scales)
Trend Analysis ( Mann-Kendalls Trend Test and Sen's Slope Estimator)
Trend Summary
Discussion and Conclusion
Page 7
3.1 Mean Maximum Temperature
Sen's Slope For Mean Maximum Temperature

0.12
0.1
Sens Slope (°C/Year)
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02 Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-0.04
-0.06
Kokernag Qazigund Pahalgam Srinagar Gulmarg Kupwara
Figure 2: Sen's Slope for mean maximum temperature
• On annual scale the mean maximum temperature in the valley has shown a significant
increase at two stations, Qazigund (+0.033°C/year) and Srinagar (+0.026°C/year) and non
-significant rise at the rest of four stations. A rise of 0.02°C/year was observed in Tmax in the
entire valley which is higher than the rate of increase in India (+0.015 °C/year) on annual
scale (Krishnan et al., 2020). The low-lying areas Qazigund, Srinagar and Kupwara
experienced steep rising trend as compared to the station at the higher altitudes.
• The seasonal analysis of Tmax reflected more significant and strong trends. The winter season
exhibited an overall rise in the TMax at all the stations significant at Kupwara
(+0.104°C/year), Srinagar(+0.067°C/year), Kokernag(+0.051°C/year) and
Pahalgam(+0.048°C/year). Thus, reflecting an overall rise of 0.051 °C /year in the Tmax in
the winter season for entire valley. This steep rise in the temperature in the winter season
may lead to decrease in the winter snowfall and lead to the early melting of the yearly snow
accumulation. This steep rise may also hamper the process of growth of glaciers.
• The Spring season also exhibited a similar pattern of the rise in the Tmax at all the six stations
with significant rises seen at Qazigund Station (+0.067°C/year), Gulmarg(+0.067°C/year),
Srinagar (+0.044°C/year) and Kokernag (+0.047°C/year) averaging to an overall rise of
0.042 °C /year in the valley. This steep rise in the spring temperature leads to the early melting
of the already reduced winter snowfall, which leads to the drastic falls in the discharges of
river Jhelum in the late spring and summers.
• The summer and the autumn seasons exhibited mostly non-significant trends in Tmax. except
for the Pahalgam station which showed a significant fall for Tmax in summers.
Page 8
3.2 Mean Minimum Temperature
Sen's Slope for Mean Minimum Temperature

0.06
0.04
Sens Slope (°C/Year)
0.02
0
Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
Figure 3: Sen's Slope for mean minimum temperature
• The mean minimum temperature shows a rising pattern in the basin on annual scale. Out of
the total six station Pahalgam (+0.037°C/year), Kokernag (+0.021°C/year) and Srinagar
(+0.017°C/year) exhibited significant rising trends in Tmin while as the rest of three stations
showed non-significant falls. The significant rising trends were seen in the upper Jhelum basin
while as the lower basin is showing a non-significant fall in Tmin. Hence, we may say that there
is a significant rising trend in the mean minimum temperatures towards the south-eastern and
central areas of the study area on annual scale.
• in winter, the Tmin shows no significant trend for all the stations. A slight rise in minimum
temperatures for the upper Jhelum basin as compared to the lower basin was observed, though
non-significant.
• For the spring season Tmin showed an overall rise at all the six stations with significant rise
at Pahalgam (+0.038°C/year), Kokernag (+0.036°C/year), Srinagar(+0.033°C/year). An
overall rise is observed in Tmin for the entire basin (0.021°C/year) which is higher than the
changes seen in minimum temperature in India (0.013 °C/year).
• The summer season followed a similar pattern of heating upper basin and cooling lower basin
for the mean minimum temperature. A rise was observed at four stations with a significant rise
at Pahalgam(+0.046°C/year). A significant fall was observed for Kupwara(-0.043°C/year)
and Gulmarg(-0.043°C/year). It can be concluded that there is a general rise in the mean
minimum temperature for the upper basin and a fall in the lower basin of the valley during the
summer season. This peculiar behavior of the basin needs further study to explain this pattern.
• For the autumn season, the rise was observed for three stations significant at Srinagar
(+0.037°C/year), Pahalgam(+0.03°C/year). A significant fall was observed at Gulmarg (-
0.064°C/year). It can be concluded that there is a general rise in the mean minimum
temperature for the upper Jhelum basin and a fall in lower Jhelum basin.
Page 9
3.3 Rainfall
10.000
Sen's Slope for Rainfall
5.000
Sens Slope (mm/year)
0.000
Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-5.000
-10.000
-15.000
-20.000
-25.000
Figure 4: Sen's Slope for Rainfall
• The rainfall showed an interesting variation with respect to the elevation of the stations. The
higher elevation stations experienced higher precipitation.
• The rainfall in the region shows a falling trend on the annual scale at three stations with
significant fall at Gulmarg (-23.024mm/year). The remaining three stations showed a non-
significant and weak rising trend in the rainfall. The decreasing rainfall in the basin effects the
discharge in the Jhelum River, which shows significant falls in average discharge.
• Winter season shows falling trend at two stations significant at Gulmarg (-10.987mm/year).
While as the rest of stations showed non-significant falls. It can be concluded that a steep
significant fall is observed at Gulmarg station and the rest of stations showed insignificant
variation. In this season the precipitation is usually in the form of snowfall, and a significant
decrease in the snowfall will reflect the falling discharges in the river in the later seasons.
• The rainfall showed an overall fall for the spring season with significant falls at Gulmarg(-
11.207mm/year) and Pahalgam(-4.716mm/year). The rest of the four stations observed a non-
significant fall. Hence, we may say that there is a general fall in the rainfall for the entire basin
in the spring season which contributes the most to the yearly rainfall. This season is critical for
the farming community because it marks the beginning of agriculture after a long haul of
winters. Recent years have witnessed a huge water crisis in the same season which has affected
the productivity of the region substantially(A. A. Lone & Guroo, 2018).
• For the summer season, non-significant trends were seen for all the stations. A generalized
conclusion for the rainfall trend in summer season is that there is a rising tendency in summer
rainfall for the upper Jhelum Basin and fall for lower Jhelum basin.
• Though there is small rainfall in the autumn season but a general non-significant rise in the
rainfall was observed for all the stations except Gulmarg.
Page 10
3.4 Mean Relative Humidity
Sen's Slope For RH (8:30 Hrs) Sen's Slope For RH (17:30 Hrs)
0.8 1.2
1
Sen's Slope (% RH /Year)
0.6
Sens Slope (RH%/Year)

0.8
0.4 0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0 0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4 -0.6
Kokernag Qazigund Pahalgam Kokernag Qazigund Pahalgam

Srinagar Gulmarg Kupwara Srinagar Gulmarg Kupwara
Figure 5: Sen's Slope for RH (8:30 Hrs) Figure 6: Sen's Slope For RH (17:30 Hrs.)
The relative humidity parameter is analyzed at two points of a day, RH 8:30 and RH 17:30.
The analysis showed prominent regional impacts on the trends in the relative humidity of the
basin. Each station shows a unique pattern of trend in relative humidity. Hence a station wise
conclusion can be drawn for this parameter.
• Kokernag station shows an annual significant rise of (+0.144%RH/year) in the RH 8:30
Hrs. A steep rise for the winter (+0.333%RH/year), non-significant rise in spring and autumn.
Significant fall was observed in the summer season Kokernag (-0.222%RH/year).
For RH 17:30 Hrs., the station shows non-significant fall at annual scale, rise in winter, fall in
spring and fall in autumn. Significant fall was observed in summers (-0.235% RH /year).
• Qazigund station shows an annual significant fall (-0.315%RH/year) in the RH 8:30 Hrs.
The spring and autumn season shows a non-significant fall. while the summers showed a
significant fall (-0.20%RH/year). For RH 17:30 Hrs. no significant results were found.
• Srinagar station shows non-significant fall in annual, winter, spring and autumn for RH 8:30
Hrs. while summer shows a significant fall (-0.133% RH /year). For RH 17:30 Hrs.,
significant fall was observed in annual (-0.208% RH /year), winter (-0.359% RH /year) and
summer (-0.133% RH /year) while non-significant falls were observed in spring and autumn.
• Gulmarg station shows non-significant fall in annual, winter, summers and autumn for RH
8:30. While significant rise in spring(+0.429%RH/year). For the RH 17:30, significant rise
was observed in annual (+0.7% RH /year), winter (+0.976% RH /year), spring (+0.722%
RH /year) summer (+0.644% RH /year) and autumn (+0.583% RH /year).
• Kupwara station shows a significant rise in annual(+0.217%RH/year), winter
(+0.148%RH/year) and spring (+0.278) %RH/year) while non-significant rise in summers
and autumn for RH 8:30 Hrs. For RH 17:30 Hrs. significant fall was observed in annual (-
0.375% RH /year), spring (-0.397% RH /year), summer (-0.179% RH /year) and autumn (-
0.381% RH /year).
Page 11
3.5 Average Discharge of River Jhelum
Sen's Slope for Average Discharge

0
-100 Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Cusecs/Year
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
Sangam RamMunshi Bagh Baramulla
Figure 7: Sen's Slope for average discharge of River Jhelum
The trend analysis for the average discharge of river Jhelum revealed falling trends at all the
three gauging stations, viz Sangam, Ram-Munshibagh and Baramulla for all the time scales.
• On the annual scale, all the three gauging stations showed a steep fall with the significant fall
in the annual average discharge at Baramulla (-285.79 cusecs/year) and nonsignificant falls
were observed at the two upstream stations, Ram-Munshibagh (-45.88 cusecs/year) and
Sangam (-15.39 cusecs/year).
• The average discharge in the winter season showed a consistent significant decrease for at
all the three gauging stations with highest fall at Baramulla Station (-89.73 cusecs/year),
Sangam (-32.93 cusecs/year) and Ram-Munshibagh (-28.69 cusecs/year)
• The average discharge in the spring season showed a consistent decrease with the highest
Significant fall at Baramulla(-508.37cusecs/year) and Sangam ( -104.75 cusecs/year) and a
non-significant fall at Ram-Munshibagh (-92.77 cusecs/year).
• The average discharge in the summers also showed a downward trend for all the three
gauging stations, with the highest fall at Baramulla(-336.31cusecs/year), Sangam (-63.58
cusecs/year) and Ram-Munshibagh (-40.40 cusecs/year). The falls were non-significant for the
summer season for all the three stations.
• In the Autumn season, a general fall was observed in the average discharge at all the three
gauging stations with the significant fall at Ram-Munshibagh (-29.71 cusecs/year) and non-
significant falls at Baramulla(-93.02cusecs/year) and Sangam (-45.5 cusecs/year).
Among the three gauging stations, The Baramulla station shows the steepest fall in discharge
on all the time scales, which may be due to the steep and significant falls in the precipitation at
Gulmarg.
4. Conclusions
The analysis of trends in various parameters were studied on the annual and seasonal scales for
the time period of 1990-2020 utilizing the data acquired from IMD Srinagar and I&FC
Srinagar. Various significant trends were obtained along with their magnitude, which show a
Page 12
significant impact of the climate change/anthropogenic activities on these parameters.

Parameter Station Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Kokernag R R* R* F R
Qazigund R* R R* R F
Pahalgam R R* R F* N
T Max
Srinagar R* R* R* F R
Gulmarg R R R* F F
Kupwara R* R* R F F
Kokernag R* R R* R R
Qazigund F F R R F
Pahalgam R* R R* R* R*
T Min
Srinagar R* N R R R*
Gulmarg F F R F* F*
Kupwara F F R F* F
Kokernag R R F R R
Qazigund F F F R R
Pahalgam R R F* R R
Rainfall
Srinagar F R F* R R
Gulmarg F* F* F* F F
Kupwara R R F F R
Kokernag R R* R F* R
Qazigund F* N F F* F
Pahalgam F F* N F F
RH (08:30 Hrs.)
Srinagar F* F* F F* F*
Gulmarg R R R* R R
Kupwara R* R* R* R R
Kokernag F R* F F* F
Qazigund R* R R F R*
Pahalgam F* F* F F F
RH (17:30 Hrs.)
Srinagar F* F* F F* F
Gulmarg R* R* R* R* R*
Kupwara F* F F* F* F*
Sangam F F* F* F F
Avg. Discharge Ram-Munshibagh F F* F F F*
Baramulla F* F* F* F F
R denotes rise, F denotes fall, N denotes no trend, Bold letter with (*) denotes significant findings (p<0.10 for
Meteorological data and p< 0.05 for discharge data)
Table 3: Conclusion Table
By considering the trend outputs of the various parameters we may conclude significant
impacts of climate change is evident the region. From the rising temperatures, falling
precipitation, erratic variations in relative humidity and steep fall in the discharge of the river,
significant indications of compound climate stresses are witnessed. The most critical seasons
regarding the climate variability are the spring and the winter season. The steep rise in the
winter and spring temperature results in early melting of the annual snow cover thus resulting
in steep dip in the discharge of the Jhelum River during the kharif season. The consistent fall
in the rainfall in the spring season enhances the impacts of this water scarcity. The falling trends
in the average discharge is affecting the efficiency of the electricity production in the region.
Page 13
The steep falls in the average discharge in the river Jhelum on all time scales hint towards an
impending catastrophe in near future. A robust water management plan and mitigation
measures regarding the availability of the irrigation water to the farming community need to
be formulated.
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to the IMD, Srinagar and I&FC, Srinagar for providing the required data. The
help from colleagues is also worthy to mention.
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Page 15
Comparative study of evapotranspiration values calculated using
different techniques
Ms. S.S. Wagh1 and Dr. K.A.Patil2
1. Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Pune, India.
Email ID: wagh.snehal486@gmail.com
2. Professor, Department of Civil Engineering ,College of Engineering, Pune, India.
Email ID: kap.civil@coep.ac.in
Abstract: This paper explains the analysis of comparative study done for Pune district as a study area on the
evapotranspiration values calculated using different tecniques for checking the suitability of correct method
applicable for given study area in respect of appropriate result checked with the available data. Meterological
factors consider for calculation are solar radiation,wind flow,rainfall,temperature,latitude and longitude of given
study area.This study mainly done in order to calculate evapotranspiration values which is necessary for agriculture
irrigation management and irrigation project management. The software and formulaes used for calculation are
HEC-HMS,ARC-GIS,PENMAN-MONTEITH equation,Thronwait equation, Hargreaves equation.Conclusion
drawn from given calculation is PENMAN-MONTEITH equation gives more correct result as compare to other
method.
Keyword: Evapotranspiration, HEC-HMS, ARC-GIS, PENMAN-MONTEITH equation, Thornthwaite

equation,Hargreaves equation
Introduction
What is Evapotranspiration?
Evapotranspiration is defined as the total amount of water used by the planets in transpiration and evaporation
from adjacent soils, at any specified time.Generally, it is the sum of evaporation and transpiration from the ground
surface to the atmosphere. Evapotranspiration is also called Consumptive Use.
Why Evapotranspiration is important?
The evapotranspiration process is important for the water cycle process of the earth. The evapotranspiration
process is the combined process of evaporation and transpiration, which means the forming of clouds, humidity,
vapor in the atmosphere, etc. depends on evapotranspiration.As per the research, the Evapotranspiration process
is responsible for 15% to 20% of the atmosphere’s water vapor.This means if the evapotranspiration process not
happened, so there is no rainfall because without water vapor input how clouds are formed, and, if clouds not
formed so there is no precipitation.that is the simple reason, why Evapotranspiration is important.
Difference between Evaporation and Evapotranspiration?

Evaporation is a process in which water converts from liquid to gaseous form that is vapor due to high temperature.
Evaporation in evapotranspiration is referred to as the water evaporated from ocean, river, lake, ponds, soil,
wetlands,standing water, etc while Evapotranspiration is the combined process of evaporation and transpiration
What is Evapotranspiration rate?

Evapotranspiration rate is the ratio of the amount of water evaporated from cropped area to per unit water depth.
Evapotranspiration is expressed in millimeters (mm).
What Instrument is used to measure evapotranspiration?
Lysimeters and Field plots are used to measure Evapotranspiration.
What are the factors affecting evapotranspiration?

The factors affecting evapotranspiration are given below.
1. Meteorological Factor
2. Density of vegetation
3. Soil Moisture
4. Stage of plant growth
5. Adjoining Land
6. Surface of leaves
How is Evapotranspiration is calculated?

Evapotranspiration can be measured with the help of Phytometer.
Phytometer method:
T = (M1-M)+M2Where,
M1 = Initial mass of the instrument
M2 = Final mass of the instrument
M = Total mass of water added during full growth of the plant.
T = Loss due to Transpiration
Measurement of Evapotranspiration
Lysimeter : It is a measuring device which can be used to measure the amount of actual evapotranspiration which
is released by plants.
Types of Lysimeter:
 Weighing
 Non-weighing
A lysimeter is most accurate when vegetation is grown in a large soil tank which allows the rainfall input and
water lost through the soil to be easily calculated. The amount of water lost by evapotranspiration can be worked
out by calculating the difference between the weight before and after the precipitation input.
Atmometer
An atmometer or evaporimeter is a scientific instrument used for measuring the rate of water evaporation from a
wet surface to the atmosphere.
Advantages
1.Low cost 2. Easy operation 3. Convenience 4. No computer or power required
Disadvantages
1.Potential weather damage can occur to the device.
2.Constant need to refill water supply.
3.Gauge must be read manually.
FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (1981) Methodology

The FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method The FAO-56 PM method is recommended as the standard method for
estimating Eto in case of locations where measured lysimeter data is not available. The equation for the estimation
of daily Eto can be written as
Where
Eto = reference evapotranspiration calculated by FAO-56 PM method (mm day1 );
Rn = daily net solar radiation (MJ m2 day1 );
γ = psychrometric constant (kPa oC 1 );
Δ = slope of saturation vapor pressure versus air temperature curve (kPa oC 1 );
es and ea = saturation and actual vapor pressure (kPa), respectively;
T = average daily air temperature (°C);
G = soil heat flux (MJ m2 day1 );
Ws = daily mean wind speed (m s1 ).
The Eto values obtained from above equation are used as target data in ANN due to unavailability of lysimeter
measured values.
2.Materials and Methods
1.Eto calculator
ETo calculator is a software developed by the Land and Water Division of FAO. Its main function is to
calculate Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) according to FAO standards.ETo represents the evapotranspiration
rate from a reference surface, not short of water. The ETo calculator assesses ETo from meteorological data by
means of the FAO Penman-Monteith equation. This method has been selected by FAO as the reference because it
closely approximates grass ETo at the location evaluated, is physically based, and explicitly incorporates both
physiological and aerodynamic parameters.
2.Cropwat software
CROPWAT 8.0 for Windows is a computer program for the calculation of crop water requirements and irrigation
requirements based on soil, climate and crop data. In addition, the program allows the development of irrigation
schedules for different management conditions and the calculation of scheme water supply for varying crop
patterns. CROPWAT 8.0 can also be used to evaluate farmers’ irrigation practices and to estimate crop
performance under both rainfed and irrigated conditions.
CROPWAT 8.0 is a Windows program based on the previous DOS versions. Apart from a completely
redesigned user interface, CROPWAT 8.0 for Windows includes a host of updated and new features, including:
 monthly, decade and daily input of climatic data for calculation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo)
 backward compatibility to allow use of data from CLIMWAT database
 possibility to estimate climatic data in the absence of measured values
 decade and daily calculation of crop water requirements based on updated calculation algorithms
including adjustment of crop-coefficient values
 calculation of crop water requirements and irrigation scheduling for paddy & upland rice, using a newly
developed procedure to calculate water requirements including the land preparation period
 interactive user adjustable irrigation schedules
 daily soil water balance output tables
 easy saving and retrieval of sessions and of user-defined irrigation schedules
 graphical presentations of input data, crop water requirements and irrigation schedules
 easy import/export of data and graphics through clipboard or ASCII text files
 extensive printing routines, supporting all windows-based printers
 context-sensitive help system
 Multilingual interface and help system: English, Spanish, French and Russian
3.Penman monteith method
Rn= Net radiation at the crop surface (MJ m -2 day-1)

G = Soil heat flux density (MJ m-2 day-1)
T = Mean daily air temperature at 2 m height (0C)
U2 = Wind speed at 2 m height (m s-1)
ea = Saturation vapor pressure (kPa)
ed =actual vapor pressure (kPa)
Δ = Slope vapor pressure curve (kPa oC-1)
γ = Psychometric constant (kPa oC-1)
2.1 Geographical Location:It lies between 18° 32″ North latitude and 73° 51″ East longitude. It lies on the
foothills of Sahyadri Mountains. The landscape of Pune district is distributed triangularly in western
Maharashtra at the foothills of the Sahyadri Mountains and is divided into three parts: “Ghatmatha”,
“Maval” and “Desh”. Pune district forms a part of the tropical monsoon land and therefore shows a
significant seasonal variation in temperature as well as rainfall conditions.
2.2 Boundries:Ahmadnagar district on north-east,Solapur district on the south-east, Satara district on

south, Raigad district on the west and Thane district on the northe-west.
2.3 Rivers:Bhima,Nira , Indrayani, Mula, Mutha, Ghod, Meena ,Kukdi, Pushpavati, Pavna, Ramnadi
2.2 Data collection
The daily rainfall data for seventeen rain gauge stations were collected from India Meteorological Department
(IMD), Pune
Pune river map
3.Results and Discussions

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mm/day Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO
JAN 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.22 2.44 3.2 3.22 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.1 3.1
FEB 3.14 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.12 2.9 3.12 2.82 3.2 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.33 2.9
MARCH 3.1 3.1 3.5 2.5 2.3 2.34 3.12 3.3 3.1 2.95 2.5 3.5 2.9 3.21 2.66
APRIL 2.33 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.11 3
MAY 5.4 5.22 4.9 5.9 4.4 4.22 4.45 4.1 4.22 5.22 4.4 5.9 3.5 4.45 3.34
JUNE 4.1 2.43 2.21 2.21 3.2 2.43 2.21 2.9 2.43 2.8 3.2 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.14
JULY 3.2 3.12 3.43 3.43 3.45 3.12 3.12 3.45 3.12 3.12 3.45 3.43 3.5 4.12 3.45
AUG 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.34 4.1 2.9 3.21 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.43
SEPT 2.1 2.56 2.1 2.1 2.88 2.56 2.1 2.11 2.56 2.56 2.88 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.88
OCT 3 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.87 2.5 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.66 3.22 2.9
NOV 2.8 2.4 2.67 2.67 2.1 2.4 3.22 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.67 3.22 2.12 2.1
DEC 2.9 3.2 2.1 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.71 3.2 3.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.34 2.71 3.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010`

mm/day Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO Eto CROPWAT PMO
JAN 3.1 3 3.1 3.22 3.2 3.21 2.56 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.1
FEB 2.11 2.9 2.4 2.12 2.22 2.2 3.75 3.82 3.5 2.9 3.22 2.1 3.2 2.2 2.9
MARCH 3.11 2.97 3.2 3.1 3 3.2 3.1 3.3 3 3.34 3.12 3.4 3 2.95 3.1
APRIL 3.11 3.2 3.1 3.55 3.2 3.5 3.23 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.45 2.5
MAY 4.9 4.22 3.9 4.21 4.45 4.1 4.11 4.1 4.45 4.22 4.45 4.9 4.8 4.22 4.4
JUNE 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.21 3.2 2.43 2.43 2.9 2.65 2.43 2.21 2.21 2.43 2.8 3.2
JULY 3.2 2.11 4.1 3.76 4.12 3.12 4.12 3.45 4.12 3.12 4.12 3.43 3.12 3.12 3.45
AUG 2.9 3.23 2.1 3.9 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.21 3 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9
SEPT 2.6 2.76 3.2 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.1 2 2.1 2.56 2.1 2.1 2.56 2.56 2.6
OCT 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.87 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.9
NOV 2.8 2.4 3.56 3.22 3.22 2.4 3.22 3.1 3.22 2.4 2.22 2.67 2.4 2.4 2.5
DEC 3.11 2.9 3 3.3 3.1 3.9 3.71 3.2 3.1 3 3.71 3.2 3.2 3 3.3
Acknowledgements
I acknowledge the support received from the Department of civil engineering (COEP). I am also thankful to
India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Central Water Commission (CWC) for providing the necessary
data to conduct the present study.
4.Conclusions
The cropwat software result proven to be best suitable for given study area.
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Application No 595, 749
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling of Sabarmati River Sub- Basin Using SWAT+

Jayswal Keyur11 and T. M. V Suryanarayana2
1
PG Student, Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute (WREMI), Faculty of
Technology and Engineering, the Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Samiala-
391410; Email: keyurjayswal.cie15@gmail.com
2
Director, Water Resources Engineering and Management Institute (WREMI), Faculty of
Technology and Engineering, The Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Samiala-
391410; Email: drsurya-wremi@msubaroda.ac.in
Abstract
Water is the most valuable gift of nature yet it is growing scarce day by day and we need to be
conscious that it has to be maintained. In India, where most river basins are ungauged, reliable
runoff data is hard to come by, making it difficult for water resource engineers and hydrologists
to estimate runoff in a catchment. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was
created for the Sabarmati river- Gandhinagar sub basin (8132.4 km2) in this study, and monthly
stream flows were simulated for a 35-year period The model uses data from the Digital
Elevation Model (DEM), land use land cover (LULC), soil data (FAO soils), and temperature,
rainfall, relative humidity, sunlight, and wind speed to predict monthly runoff at the watershed
outflow and estimate water balance components. Thematic maps of the watershed were created
using remote sensing data and QGIS. Actual flow data from the Gandhinagar- outlet from 1980
to 2007 were used to calibrate the model, which was then validated using a comparison of
simulated and observed flow rates from 2008 to 2014. In the “SWAT+ Toolbox,” a sensitivity
analysis approach was used to analyses factors that were anticipated to impact stream discharge
estimates. SCS Curve number, slope length, channel length, Manning's coefficient "n",
saturated hydraulic conductivity, and soil available water capacity were among the factors
identified. Performance indicators such as Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliff
Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Percent bias were used to assess the
findings (PBIAS). Before calibration, The R2 between Rainfall and Discharge (Flow out) was
0.68, but after calibration and validation, it increased to 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. NSE was
0.57 and improved to 0.81 and 0.76 After calibration and Validation respectively. The Percent
bias (PBIAS) was 6.74 % and resulted as 4.26 % and -8.66 % After calibration and Validation
respectively. The SWAT+ model produces good outcomes, according to the findings. The
study reveals that combining QGIS, QSWAT+, and the SWAT+ Toolbox to estimate runoff
from ungauged watersheds is a valuable tool for better watershed management and
conservation.
Keywords: Rainfall-runoff Modelling, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Hydrological

Response Unit (HRU), QGIS, QSWAT+, and the SWAT+
1. Introduction
Page 1
Water is nature's most important gift to humanity, and it is becoming increasingly scarce.
Conservation of water resources is an important social and ecological concern now a day. Also,
the climatic extremes (floods and droughts) are aggravating due to altering climatic conditions
over the world. Estimating the quantity and rate of runoff is a major question in hydrological
management and administration.
Rapid population growth and lifestyle changes have put enormous strain on natural resources,
creating deterioration and posing a worldwide hazard. Soil erosion affects around 188 million
hectares of land in India, or approximately 57% of the total geographical area (329 million
hectares). Real-time flood monitoring and control are critical for preventing soil erosion and
flood damage to people and property near rivers. Surface runoff is a major source of soil erosion
because it increases reservoir sedimentation and plant nutrient loss, resulting in decreased river
water quality. The real time flood warning can be implemented while integration of
hydrological simulation models. The models which provide real time information can be used
for flood management and useful in the preparation of early warning system.
The Sabarmati basin is located partly in Rajasthan and Gujarat. it has an area of roughly 21,674
square kilometers. The Sabarmati basin contains two CWC flood forecasting sites, Dharoi dam
and Ahmedabad. A key problem that remains is properly predicting watershed runoff reactions
to rainfall occurrences. Precise surface runoff assessment plays a significant role for water
resources projects. Hydrologic model is basic illustration of real hydrologic systems that help
us to learn the working of watersheds and their response to numerous inputs, and thus gain an
improved understanding of hydrologic procedures.
Similarly, the impacts of fast urbanization on the hydrological cycle may be quantified and
forecasted using a complete categorization of the affected metropolitan area combined with
modelling, which may need a significant quantity of real-time field observation. Watershed
hydrological models are becoming increasingly important for water resource planning and
growth, and their importance will grow significantly in the coming periods.
Hydrological Processes of Stream Flows
The hydrological processes in the prediction of stream flows for hydrologic model is
schematically presented in Figure 1. The process initiates with precipitation, which basically
occurs on three types of surfaces like. land surface, vegetation, and water body. Part of this
water returns back to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration. Part of
precipitation remaining after evapotranspiration are available as overland flow, infiltration and
recharging the ground aquifers.
Page 2
Figure 1 Process diagram for prediction of surface runoff (Ward, 1975)

The infiltrated water into the soil may be accessible in the form of soil moisture or recharge
the ground water aquifer or available as interflow to the streams. The water available as
recharge to the aquifers, may be available as base flow contribution to the streams. In others
words, the run-off at catchment outlet consists of surface runoff, interflow and base flow
contributions from surface and subsurface systems, as described above.
Hydrological Models
To simulate hydrological processes, a variety of hydrological models with varying degrees of

complexity are available. The abstract model relates input to output by the set of mathematical
equations and, on the basis of the variable types, they can be classified as per the classification
tree included Figure 2
Figure 2 Classification of hydrologic models

2.2.1 Brief Overview of SWAT
SWAT, which stands for Soil and Water Assessment Tool, is a basin model that is now most
effective spatially distributed hydrological models in the world. It’s a free and open-source
hydrological modelling tool created by the USDA-ARS and Texas University. For simulation,
SWAT splits the watershed into different sub basins or sub watersheds. then the points on the
stream network act as pour points to compensate for areas in the watershed that have varying
land uses or different soil characteristics affecting the hydrology in the area. Then all sub basins
are further separated into small-small hydrologic response units (HRU) having alike landuse,
soil characteristics and topography then these different HRU’s depict the spatial heterogeneity
Page 3
in the catchment.
The hydrological components of the SWAT-simulated hydrological simulated-cycle are based

on the standard water balance eq. which is shown below:
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆0 + ∑𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖=1(𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 − 𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 − 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 − 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 − 𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄)
Where;
• “t” denotes the number of days in a year.
• “SWt” denotes the ultimate soil water content in millimeters
• “SWo” denotes the initial soil water content in millimeters.
• “Rday” is precipitation that fell on day I in millimeters.
• “Qsurf” is surface runoff that occurs in day I in millimeters
• “Qgw” is return flow that occurs in day I in millimeters
• “Ea” is evapotranspiration that occurs in day I in millimeters
• “Wseep” is percolation that occurs in day I in millimeters.
SWAT employs the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number technique to quantify
surface runoff under various landuse and soil types (USDA, 1972). The SCS curve number
equation is as follows:
(Rday − Ia)2
Qsurf =
(Rday − Ia) + S
[Source: SWAT Theoretical documentation, Version 2000]
Where;
• “Ia” is the initial value, which includes losses such as interception and infiltration prior
to runoff in millimeters
• “Qsurf” is the rainfall excess in millimeters
• “Rday” is the rainfall depth for the day in millimeters,
• “S” is the retention parameter in millimeters.
The following is the interpretation of the retention parameter:

1000
S = 25.4 ( − 10)
CN
where CN is the curve number for that specific day.
Because the initial abstractions, Ia, are commonly approximated as 0.2S, equation (2.2)
becomes:
(Rday − Ia)2
Qsurf =
(Rday − 0.8Ia)
Runoff will occur only when Rday exceeds Ia.

Aside from runoff, the hydrological processes that contribute to a river basin's water balance
are evapotranspiration, precipitation, lateral flow, surface runoff, and base flow. Except for
precipitation, estimating these quantities is time-consuming because measuring them is
challenging. With annual and monthly flows, the SWAT model can simply calculate these
Page 4
water balance components.
Study Area and Data Source
2.4.1 Sabarmati River basin
The Sabarmati River is a significant west-flowing river in India. The Sabarmati basin is defined
by the Aravalli hills in the north, the Rann of Kutch in the west, and the Gulf of Khambhat in
the south. The basin stretches over the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat, covering an area of
approximately 21,679 square kilometers and extending 300 kilometers in length and 150
kilometers in width. It is situated between 70°58' and 73°51' east longitude and 22°15' and
24°47' north latitude.
The basin's average annual discharge is 3.81 BCM. In the basin, there is 1.9 BCM of usable
surface water. The total population in the basin is 1,33,07,250.
Figure 3 shows the geographical location of the Sabarmati basin with terrain features from
DEM. The blue boundary shows the basin extent overlapped on state boundary.
Figure 3 Features of the Sabarmati basin (source: www.india-wris.nrsc.gov.in)

2.4.2 Gandhinagar Sub Basin
Gandhinagar is located on the west bank of the Sabarmati River. Gandhinagar was chosen as
the study's outlet due to the availability of observed Sabarmati River flow data for this site.
This site is utilized to define the watershed, which is referred to throughout the study as the
"Gandhinagar sub basin." The index map of the study area watershed, which is part of the
Sabarmati upper subbasin, is presented in Figure 4.
Page 5
Figure 4 Index map of Gandhinagar sub basin in upper- Sabarmati basin
SWAT+ needs a lot of spatial and temporal data to perform the simulation part. One of the
most important responsibilities for running the SWAT+ model is preparing the data and
correcting errors as soon as possible. The data that are needed to run the simulation are:
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) - The digital elevation model with a resolution of 30mx30m
available on Bhuvan's website was used in this study.
Landuse/ landcover map - The Landsat 8 satellite image from 2016, with a spatial resolution
of 30 meters, was used to construct the land use map.
Soil map (FAO) - The soil map was built mostly using data from the World Soil Database of
the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO-UN).
Daily weather data - SWAT+ requires daily weather data, which can come from either a
measured data set or a weather generating model. The weather variables used in this study for
the hydrological balance from 1979 to 2014 were daily precipitation, minimum and maximum
Page 6
temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sun radiation. These data are from the Climate
Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) website (often known as "CFSR weather") of the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
River Discharge data - Data from rivers is essential for model calibration and validation. A
gauged station is located in Gandhinagar's north western outskirts, and its discharge data is
used for river discharge prediction in this research area. For the observation period 1979–2014,
daily river flow data for Gandhinagar gauged station were available.
Figure 5 Gandhinagar sub basin and Sabarmati River

Model Setup
The Schematic flow chart of methodology adopted for the present study is included in Figure
6.
Figure 6 Methodology used for SWAT model

2.4.1 Creating Stream Network in Dem
Stream reaches are segments of the stream network that connect major locations, such as stream
sources, stream junctions, inlet, exit, point source, and reservoir points. A sub basin is a zone
draining into a stream. Every sub basin must have minimum one streams that leads to outlet or
nearest other stream and merge with that.
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Figure 7 Stream network in DEM

2.4.2 Watershed Delineation
The catchment is now separated in 7 sub basins or sub catchments. Details about each sub
catchment is given in Figure 8.
Figure 8 Sub basin Delineation

2.4.3 Reading The Land Use and Soil Maps
For both land use/land cover and soil maps SWAT+ needs two sides of input in this step. The
first on is the raster file we excreted from their respective source and the lookup tables for
relating the raster value to SWAT+ data base.
2.4.4 Qswat+ Database

QSWAT has its own data base to understand the pixel value of raster and with the help of
lookup table
2.4.5 Creating Hydrological Response Units

This stage determines the distribution of hydrologic response units (HRU) throughout the
Page 8
watershed. Surface runoff and ground water flow are routed to nearby HRUs and tracked up to
the watershed outlet to get the total runoff at the watershed outlet using hydraulic equations for
each HRU.
A total of 61 HRUs were generated in the catchment. Till this step most of the modelling is
done. Now the project is sent to the swat+ editor.
2.4.6 Adding Project to Swat+ Editor

Almost everything is ready to write the SWAT+ input files and run SWAT+ at this stage. The
SWAT+ Editor allows us to alter various SWAT databases and training scenarios. This is also
the stage at which we can try out various management situations.
Figure 9 SWAT+ Editor

In swat+ editor addition of the weather data, warm up period, setting up simulation details and
running SWAT+ model is done.
2.4.7 Reading Weather Data

Weather generator data and real weather data are the two types of weather data that SWAT+
may use. It's fed into a weather generator program, which generates pseudo random data. This
is utilized when genuine weather data isn't available, either for certain dates or for specific
types of weather, such as solar radiation. Weather generator data is information on a location's
normal weather and its variability.
2.4.8 Adding Simulation Details and Running Swat+

This is the final step where we add the simulation details like simulation period, warmup period
and the type of outputs needed at daily, monthly or year time steps.
Page 9
Figure 10 Simulation settings and running SWAT+
The detailed analysis has been carried out for Sabarmati River and Gandhinagar sub-
catchments using SWAT+ software, and the results are described in the following:
3.1 Before Calibration Results:
The first year (1979) is used as a warm-up phase to reduce the impact of uncertain beginning
conditions that were later removed from the analysis. The discharge data is then divided into
two periods: calibration (1980–2007) and validation (2008–2014).The actual flow (flow
observed) vs. The SWAT+ output (flow simulated) before calibration for some years is shown
in Figure 11.
Page 10
Figure 11 Before Calibration Results
3.2 Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of Mode:
As seen in previous before calibration results that the Actual flow and Simulated flow are not
matching thoroughly. So, model requires the calibration there are two calibration methods in
swat+ toolbox manual calibration and automatic calibration but before calibration the
parameters have to be decided for calibration because calibrating each and every parameter is
not possible. That is the reason for sensitivity analysis.
There are so many parameters which ae used to describe the watershed. Each of them is difficult
to measure directly. All those parameters are affecting the watershed in different magnitude
and extent. Since parameter estimation and the model's sensitivity to that parameter are
evaluated. These parameters are critical for a successful implementation in unmonitored or
ungauged watersheds. To help with parameterization, a sensitivity analysis was created.
In this work, SWAT+ Toolbox version 0.7.6 was utilized for sensitivity analysis of various
parameters, calibration, and validation of the model.
Table 1 Chosen eleven parameters to determine model sensitivity in monthly streamflow

simulation
No. GROUP_NAME DESCRIPTION

1 Aqu_alpha Base flow recession factor (days)
2 Bsn_evrch Reach evaporation factor
3 Hru_elev Elevation (m)
4 Hru_esco Soil evaporation compensation factor
5 Hru_dis_stream Average distance to stream (m)
Page 11
6 Hru_ovn Manning’s coefficient N

7 Hru_cn2 Curve number
8 Rte_bd Moist bulk density (Mg/ m3)
9 Sol_z Depth from soil surface bottom layer (mm)
10 Sol_awc Available water capacity, m/m
11 Rte_chk Saturated hydraulic conductivity
3.3 After Calibration Results:
After performing demanding calibration for the values (which includes sensitivity analysis),
the parameters are then applied to SWAT+ to obtain the best-fit values. The actual flow (flow
observed) vs. The calibrated SWAT+ output (flow simulated) after calibration for some years
is shown in Figure 12.
Figure 12 After Calibration Results
3.4 Overall Model Performance:

Overall model performance for calibration period (1980 to 2007) and validation period (2008
to 2014) is shown in Figure 13.
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Figure 13 Overall model Performance
The performance of the SWAT model was evaluated using a graphical depiction as well as a
number of statistical parameters are shown in Table 2.
Table 2 Performance indices during calibration and validation

calibration
Performance indices Validation
Before After
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency NSE 0.63 0.81 0.76

The percentage of bias PBIAS 6.74 % 5.22 % -8.66 %
Root Mean Square Error RMSE 26.70 12.96 10.90
The correlation coefficient R 0.84 0.86 0.82
Coefficient of determination R2 0.70 0.81 0.74
Water Balance Check

Information on a river basin's water balance and yield is essential for the long-term
management of water resources at the basin level. Climate and physical features of the
watershed, such as morphology, Land Use/Land Cover, and soil texture, impact water balance
components.
To analyse the hydrologic response to climate and land cover variability in determining water
availability, it is important to understand the connection between these physical factors and
hydrological components.
Page 13
To account for all water arriving, exiting, and stored in a watershed, the watershed
representations split rainfall into several hydrological processes such as surface runoff, ET,
percolation, lateral flow, and base flow, among others. Table 3 shows the yearly average values
for water balance in millimeters.
Table 3 Annual Average Water Balance

Annual average water balance
mm
Precipitation 873.37
Percolation 15.51
Evapotranspiration 555.89
Surface Runoff 267.34
Base Flow 19.17
Lateral Flow 15.44
water balance check 0.02
(Precipitation- losses) (Ideal 0)
4. Conclusions

i. The SWAT+ model's QSWAT+ interface has been successfully utilized to investigate
the hydrological features of the Sabarmati basin.
ii. The sensitivity analysis was used because calibration indicates differences between
parameter values that were initialized for model calibration on a monthly basis.
iii. The model was then calibrated and verified on a monthly basis using historical stream
flow statistics at Gandhinagar using the SOBOL algorithm in the SWAT+ toolbox.
Based on river discharge, the model has been successfully calibrated.
iv. Performance indicators such as Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliff
Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Percent bias (PBIAS) were
used to assess the findings
v. Before calibration, The R2 was 0.68, but after calibration and validation, it increased to
0.81 and 0.74, respectively.
vi. NSE was 0.57 and improved to 0.81 and 0.76 After calibration and Validation
respectively.
vii. The Percent bias (PBIAS) was 6.74 % and resulted as 4.26 % and -8.66 % After
calibration and Validation respectively.
viii. The model calibration and validation result are regarded satisfactory if the coefficient
of determination R2 and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) are more than 0.5, and the
percentage bias is less than 15%. It has been proven that the model has effective
predictive capacity.
ix. For various hydrological and environmental studies, as such as flow forecasting, future
urbanization effect assessment, flood damage reduction, reservoir design studies, and
Page 14
overall system operation, the simulation results can be utilized directly or in conjunction
with other software.
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Homogeneous Precipitation Zones: Newly proposed Zones for India and

their Future-projected Changes in Precipitation Characteristics
Subharthi Sarkar1 and Rajib Maity2
1
PhD Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology
Kharagpur– 721302; Email: subharthisarkar5@gmail.com
2
Kharagpur– 721302, West Bengal, India; Email: rajib@civil.iitkgp.ac.in
Abstract
Newly proposed precipitation regions, named as Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs),

are introduced in this study in order to identify the regions with spatially coherent or similar
precipitation characteristics across India. Unlike some earlier studies, two crucial attributes of
precipitation, viz. (i) average annual precipitation and (ii) seasonality of precipitation, are
jointly considered to delineate the HPZs. The consideration of seasonality makes HPZs more
relevant, particularly in the present scenario of climatic and socioeconomic changes. The
information theory-based concept of apportionment entropy is used to quantify the seasonality
of monthly precipitation. Then using some predefined thresholds of seasonality and annual
precipitation, six HPZs are identified, namely, (i) HPZ-1: Low Precipitation-High Seasonality
Zone, (ii) HPZ-2: Moderate Precipitation-High Seasonality Zone, (iii) HPZ-3: High
Precipitation-High Seasonality Zone, (iv) HPZ-4: Low Precipitation- Low Seasonality Zone,
(v) HPZ-5: Moderate Precipitation-Low Seasonality Zone, (vi) HPZ-6: High Precipitation-Low
Seasonality Zone. The spatial distribution of HPZs is found to be more reasonable than the
existing Homogeneous Monsoon Regions (HMRs), as suggested by India Meteorological
Department (IMD). Further analysis with future-projected precipitation from 14 state-of-the-
art General Circulation Models (GCMs) reveals a wetter future with the highest increase in the
low-precipitation zones like HPZ-1 (northwest India) or HPZ-4 (peninsular India). Extreme
precipitation is also projected to increase all over the country which can only be combated by
suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies in sufficient advance. Overall, the newly proposed
HPZs and their future-projected changes in precipitation patterns are expected to be useful in
various hydrological and climatological studies in the future.
Keywords: Precipitation Zoning; Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs); Seasonality;

Apportionment Entropy; Climate Change.
1 Introduction
India is a large country with a wide range of precipitation patterns, both spatially and
temporally. It has Mawsynram in the north-east portion, the wettest place on earth, receiving
more than 5000 mm of precipitation annually, along with a desert like Thar in the west, with
less than 200 mm of annual precipitation. The rainfall pattern is also highly seasonal over the
year with the highest contribution (~70% of the annual rainfall) from the monsoon months. The
monsoon pattern also varies across the country; while the south-west monsoon dominates most
of the country from June to September, a few places in southern India are also influenced by
the north-east monsoon during October-November-December. Therefore for any hydroclimatic
or hydrometeorological analysis for a vast and diverse climatology like India, a zone-wise
Page 1
analysis will be more informative than an overall pan-India analysis. For such zone-wise
analysis, ‘Regionalization’ is the initial yet crucial step to identify the regions with coherent or
homogeneous precipitation characteristics (Brown et al., 2010). Suitable regionalization for a
vast study area plays a very important role in various hydroclimatic research applications
including downscaling, forecasting, and projection of precipitation (Sarkar & Maity, 2022;
Sehgal et al., 2018), regional flood frequency analysis (Yang et al., 2010; Zhang et al., 2006),
climate dynamics (Deng et al., 2019; Zhao et al., 2019), potential water resources availability
(Maruyama et al., 2005), agricultural planning (Bhatla et al., 2019), design of hydraulic
structures (Adamowski, 2000), etc.
Towards this, the Homogeneous Monsoon Region (HMR) is generally recommended by the
India Meteorological Department (IMD) which was first conceptualized by Parthasarathy et
al., (1993), as shown in Fig. 1e. These HMRs are the most popular and extensively used
regionalization pattern for various hydroclimatic studies across India (Lakshmi Kumar et al.,
2014; Rajendran et al., 2013; Sharma & Mujumdar, 2017; Zheng et al., 2016). Parthasarathy et
al., (1993) developed this zoning pattern by grouping then twenty nine meteorological sub-
divisions into five HMRs for the entire Indian mainland (except the hilly area, shown as white
in Fig. 1e), primarily based on the features of their monsoon precipitation and hydroclimatic
teleconnection. However, for a variety of reasons, the distribution of HMRs has long been
questionable. Those 29 sub-divisions, which served as the foundation for the development of
the HMRs, were compiled by IMD in the middle of the 20th century following a thorough
analysis of numerous rainfall-derived statistics. However, the boundaries of these sub-divisions
were always created to conform to some administrative jurisdictions for practical convenience
(such as giving weather warnings to government officials and alerting the public). Eventually,
the developed HMRs also adhere to the inter-state political boundaries of India, which is
definitely dubious from a climatological perspective. For instance, this existing zoning of
HMRs cannot distinguish between the windward side of the Western Ghats, which receives
significantly more precipitation than west-central or peninsular India. (See Fig. 1e). Similarly,
despite having a significantly different rainfall pattern, the entire state of West Bengal is
grouped with north-east India. Moreover, the HMRs are approximately three-decades-old –
which surely demands a new regionalization for India keeping the present scenario of changing
climate in mind.
Therefore, lately, there have been numerous attempts to delineate homogenous precipitation
regions for India to capture the true diversity of the precipitation pattern of the country.
However, most of these studies either only consider the mean or total precipitation (Bharath
and Srinivas, 2015; Mannan et al., 2018; Saikranthi et al., 2013), or only the variability of
precipitation (Maruyama et al., 2005; Roushangar et al., 2020). On the other hand, a multitude
of studies in the recent past have reported a substantial increase in the magnitude, as well as
the variability of Indian precipitation – both in terms of space and time with increased
uncertainty (Ghosh et al., 2012; Paul et al., 2018; Roxy et al., 2017; Sarkar & Maity, 2020b;
Vinnarasi & Dhanya, 2016). Therefore here we argue that regionalization studies must account
for both the magnitude and variability of precipitation patterns for robust identification of
homogeneous regions. To this end, this study proposes a new regionalization framework,
named ‘Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs)’ for India accounting for both magnitude of
precipitation and temporal variability.
Page 2
As a measure of temporal variability, here we consider the seasonal variation of monthly

rainfall. Seasonality is a crucial aspect of precipitation, especially from the Indian perspective.
For example, a location with moderate precipitation but an even monthly distribution will
guarantee a stable and sufficient supply of water all year long. On the other hand, a location
with significant precipitation but an irregular monthly distribution will show a water surplus
for a portion of a given year and a deficit for the remainder. Presently in India, due to growing
industrial and agricultural needs, urbanisation, and population growth, water demand is rising
on one hand, while the regular spatiotemporal pattern of precipitation is changing on the other.
Therefore, taking seasonal variability of precipitation into consideration becomes essential
while delineating precipitation zones, especially in light of the changing climatological and
socioeconomic conditions. Keeping all these factors in mind, the recently proposed HPZs
might be seen as a more appropriate zoning for India than its other counterparts.
Finally, we conduct a multi-model ensemble analysis of the future-projected changes in

precipitation patterns across the identified HPZs over India. We expect this newly proposed
zones for India and the detailed analysis of their future-projected changes in precipitation
characteristics will be highly beneficial not only for academic or research purposes, but for
decision-making, risk analysis, and impact assessments.
2 Data used
2.1 Observed Precipitation Data
The daily-scale observations of precipitation with gridded record is provided by the India
Meteorological Department (IMD) for the recent past period, i.e., 1981-2020 (Pai et al., 2014).
Using observational data from 6995 rain gauge sites distributed across different parts of India,
this dataset with a 0.25° latitude × 0.25° longitude resolution was developed. IMD's gridded
precipitation dataset has recently been used with effectiveness in a number of hydroclimatic
studies over India (Ali & Mishra, 2017; Mishra et al., 2020; Mukherjee et al., 2018; Sarkar &
Maity, 2020a; Suman & Maity, 2020).
2.2 Future-projected Precipitation Data
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary source for any future-projected climatic
data across the globe. Here also, the simulated daily precipitation datasets for future (2021-
2100) projections were obtained from 14 state-of-the-art GCMs that took part in the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project-6. (CMIP6) (URL: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/
accessed in May 2022), as shown in table 1. For each GCM, future precipitation data is obtained
for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), viz., SSP245 and SSP585. Further, the
historical simulations are also obtained for each GCM in order perform bias-correction (see
‘Results and Discussion’ section). To capture the temporal evolution in various characteristics
of precipitation patterns in future w.r.t. the base-period (1981-2010), the total 80 years of future
data is evenly divided into two parts, namely, near-future (2021-2060) and far-future period
(2061-2100).
Page 3
Table 1: Details of GCMs used in this study, participating CMIP6.
S. Horizontal resolution
Model name Source institute
No. (latitude  longitude)
1 ACCESS-CM2 1.25 1.875 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organisation, Australia
2 ACCESS-ESM1-5 1.251.875
3 BCC-CSM2-MR 1.11211.125 Beijing Climate Center, China
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and

4 CanESM5 2.76732.8125
Analysis, Canada
5 EC-Earth3 0.700.70
EC-Earth-Consortium
6 EC-Earth3-Veg 0.700.70
7 CESM2_WACCM 0.94241.25 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui

8 CMCC-CM2-SR5 0.94241.25
Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy
9 MPI-ESM1-2-HR 0.9350.9375 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg,

Germany
10 MPI-ESM1-2-LR 1.86521.8750
11 IPSL-CM6A-LR 1.26762.5 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune,

12 IITM 1.90481.8750
India
13 INM-CM4-8 1.52.0 Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russian
Academy of Science, Russia
14 INM-CM5-0 1.52.0
3 Methodology
3.1 Delineation of HPZs
As stated earlier, the new regionalization is proposed in this study by coupling two important
attributes of precipitation over the 1981-2020 period, viz., (i) average annual precipitation (𝑃),
and (ii) seasonal variation of monthly precipitation. To quantify the seasonality, here we use
the concept of entropy. In information theory, Entropy is considered a measure of dispersion,
disorder, uncertainty, and diversification (Shannon, 1948). Thus, the variability or unevenness
of a precipitation time series over the months can be quantitatively measured by using entropy.
Since the last decade, the concept of Shannon entropy has gained a lot of traction in surface
and subsurface hydrology, mostly because it does not require any parametric assumptions about
Page 4
the probability distribution or the statistical properties of data. Apportionment Entropy (𝐴𝐸) –
a concept derived from Shannon entropy is also used for quantifying the intra-annual variability
of precipitation. In this study we utilise the concept of 𝐴𝐸 as a descriptive non-parametric
measure of the seasonal variation of monthly precipitation. The value of AE for kth year can be
formulated as,
12
AE k
   ( p ik / Pk ) log 2
( p ik / Pk ) (1)
i 1
where, pik indicates the monthly precipitation for ith month in kth year, and Pk indicates the total
12
annual precipitation for the kth year, hence given by Pk   p ik . The magnitude of AE might
i 1
theoretically range from zero to the highest value of log 2 12 (  3 . 585 ) . Lesser the magnitude
of AE, the higher seasonal is the precipitation data, and vice versa. For instance, if the annual
rainfall at a particular place is equally distributed among all 12 months, it will result in 𝐴𝐸
magnitude of 3.585. On the other hand, if the entire amount of annual rainfall happens only in
one month in a year, it will yield 𝐴𝐸 magnitude of zero. Next, a scatter plot is developed using
the average 𝑃 and 𝐴𝐸 values considering every grid points in India. This 𝑃 vs 𝐴𝐸 plot is then
divided into some disjoint portions through some judiciously selected thresholds of 𝑃 and 𝐴𝐸
(see ‘Results and Discussion’ section for more details), and according we identify the
Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs).
3.2 Analysis of future-projected changes in precipitation
Future-simulated data from each of those 14 CMIP6-GCM are first regridded and then bias-
corrected before undergoing any statistical analysis. For regridding, bilinear interpolation is
used to remove the mismatch of resolution among the GCMs and observed data. For bias-
correction, a recently developed bias-correction technique based on bivariate copulas (Maity
et al., 2019) is used, which successfully corrects the bias in mean as well as in extremes, and
is particularly suitable for zero-inflated precipitation climatology like India. Next, using this
bias-corrected dataset, we analyze the future changes in three different attributes of
precipitation, viz., (i) Annual precipitation. (ii) Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation (AMDP)
and (iii) Monthly variation of precipitation, across the HPZs. The future-projected changes are
quantified through Multi-Model-ensemble (MME) mean in this study.
4.1 Proposed Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs)
First, a scatter plot of the grid-wise mean annual precipitation (P) and mean AE over the
reference period (1981-2020) is created as in Fig. 1a, which is then separated into some disjoint
zones based on some judiciously selected thresholds along both the axes. Initially, only the 50th
percentile was chosen for both P and AE and accordingly identified a four-way zoning (not
shown here). For example, in the case of seasonality, the 50th percentile, i.e., AE50 was
considered to differentiate between High-seasonality (AE<AE50) and Low-seasonality zones
(AE>AE50). Similar delineation was done for annual precipitation as well. However, the spatial
distribution of this four-way zoning was not satisfactory (not shown here) because, it could not
distinguish between the Western Ghats and central India. Also, it clubbed the entire northeast
Page 5
India with the eastern India as a single zone. This happened because the distribution of annual
precipitation over India is highly skewed towards the higher side, but the same is not true for
seasonality which depicts a reasonably unform pattern, as can be confirmed from Fig. 1a. Thus,
the P-axis of the scatter plot demands one more threshold towards the higher side. Therefore,
from trial and error we zeroed down on the 90th percentile of P. So, in the case of annual
precipitation, we additionally considered the 90th percentile to designate three different zones,
viz., Low-rainfall (P<P50), Moderate-rainfall (P50<P<P90), and High-rainfall zones (P>P90) –
hence developing a six-way zoning for India, as shown by different colours in Fig. 1a
Therefore, in this classification approach, the characteristics of both annual precipitation
magnitude and seasonal variability are combined into six distinct HPZs across the Indian
mainland.
The spatial distribution of these HPZs is shown in Fig. 1b, where a few tiny patches of zones
can be found to lie within the borders of other adjacent zones. To achieve a smoother zone
boundary and preserve the geographic contiguity of the zones as much as feasible, such cases
are handled manually and converted to the zone they are surrounded by. The finished zones are
displayed in Fig. 1c following the manual border smoothing. Fig 1c can be considered as the
final zoned map for HPZs across the Indian mainland, proposed in this study. Further details
regarding this zoning can be found in Table 2, which includes the criterion for this
regionalisation, zone number, zone full name, and corresponding abbreviations.
On further investigation of Fig. 1c and 1d, we can see, the HPZ-1 also depicted as the Low
Precipitation High Seasonality zone (PLSH), is found largely in the north-western region of
India, including Gujrat and Rajasthan, as well as some areas of western Uttar Pradesh and
Madhya Pradesh. It spans about 27% of the Indian mainland. The HPZ-2, also known as the
Moderate Precipitation High Seasonality zone (PMSH), is located in central India, primarily in
Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, and accounts for over 20% of the
country's land area. With the smallest percentage of land area (~2%) among the six HPZs, the
Western Ghats are classified as HPZ-3, or High Precipitation High Seasonality zone (PHSH).
The Low Precipitation Low Seasonality zone (PLSL), also known as HPZ-4, is fairly large in
terms of area, covering over 23% of India in two main regions: Peninsular India (parts of
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Tamilnadu , and Southern Andhra Pradesh), and northern
India (Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh, and Punjab portion). The HPZ-5, also known as the Moderate
Precipitation Low Seasonality zone (PMSL), is spread out over a number of locations across
India, with the majority of these locations being in the eastern part of the country (West Bengal,
Odisha, Jharkhand, and eastern Bihar), portions of the southern Indian east coast (some coastal
parts of Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh), portions of the northern part of the country (Himachal
Pradesh and Uttarakhand), Last but not least, Kerala and north-east India make up the majority
of the HPZ-6, or High Precipitation Low Seasonality zone (PHSL), which covers around 8% of
the Indian subcontinent. Some portion in the north-most hilly portion of India, mostly spanning
in the Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh portion, is not considered in the subsequent analysis
because of questionable reliability of the rainfall data over that region; hence marked hatched
in Fig. 1c.
Page 6
(a) Scatter Plot

(b) Raw Zoning
(e) Existing zoning, (c) Final Zoning after

denoted through boundary smoothening
Homogeneous
Monsoon Regions
(HMRs)
(d) % of land area
Figure 1: Proposed Homogeneous Precipitation Zones (HPZs) across the Indian

mainland, (a) Scatter plot between mean annual precipitation (P) and mean
Apportionment Entropy (AE, exhibiting seasonality) across India using data from 1981-
2020 (b) Raw spatial distribution of zones directly obtained from the scatter plot, (b)
Final spatial distribution of zones after smoothening the boundaries, (d) HPZ-wise
distribution of spatial coverage, and (e) existing zoning denoted through Homogeneous
Monsoon Regions (HMRs) for comparison with newly proposed HPZs.
Page 7
Some definite improvements can be observed in the proposed HPZs in contrast to the existing
HMRs. For instance, this newly proposed HPZs can successfully distinguish the windward side
of Western Ghats from the rest of the peninsular India and identify it as a distinct zone, i.e.,
HPZ-3 or High Precipitation High Seasonality zone. Also, it can differentiate the west Bengal
portion from the north-east India, where the precipitation pattern is completely different.
Therefore, these newly proposed HPZs can be considered as a more suitable alternative to the
existing HMRs for Indian climatology.
Table 2: Details of the Uniform Precipitation Zones (HPZs) proposed in this study.
The month-wise distribution of precipitation across the HPZs is shown in Fig.2, along with the
all-India average (black dashed line). From this figure, we can observe the individuality of each
HPZs which in turn has necessitated the proposition of zoning or regionalisation and hence
zone-wise analysis, instead of a pan-India analysis. For instance, both the low-precipitation
zones – HPZ-1 and -4 experience rainfall below the all-India average (see Fig. 2), but the
rainfall pattern in HPZ-1 is more uneven or more variable than HPZ-4 resulting in more
seasonality. A similar set of observations of varying rainfall patterns can be noticed for other
HPZs as well.
Figure 2: Distribution of monthly precipitation across the HPZs
Page 8
4.2 Future Projected Changes in Precipitation across HPZs
In this section, we present the multi-model projected changes in three attributes of precipitation
(i) annual precipitation (P), (ii) AMDP, and (iii) monthly variation of precipitation over the
future, through an aggregated analysis of 14 state-of-the-art bias-corrected CMIP6-GCMs.
Consideration of these three aforementioned attributes will give us a holistic perspective on the
changing precipitation pattern over the future, including means, extremes, and variability. The
summary of this assessment for P and AMDP under two emission scenarios (SSP 245 and 585)
and over two future time periods (near- and far-future period) is provided in Fig. 3 in terms of
bar plots of multi-model ensemble (MME) mean (a) absolute changes, (b) percentage changes
and (c) underlying pdfs.
Overall, an increase in annual precipitation is projected in most parts of India (not shown here)
over the future under both scenarios. In terms of absolute changes, the central part of India,
Western Ghats, and northeast India show a considerable increase, thus resulting in maximum
amount of increase in the high-precipitation zones such as HPZ-3 and HPZ-6 (see Fig. 3a).
However, in terms of percentage change (panel b), low precipitation zones (HPZ-1 or HPZ-4)
shows the highest amount of increase, causing a substantial increase in northwest and southern
part of the country. Also, we see the extent of increase (both absolute and percentage) gets
stronger with the passage of time (in far-future) and under higher forcing scenario (i.e.,
SSP585). For instance, annual precipitation is projected to increase by 188.85 mm (147.99 mm)
in near future, and by 530.04 mm (288.99 mm) in the far future period under SSP585 (SSP245)
scenario, over its average value of 1152 mm in the base period (1981-2010). The underlying
probability density functions (pdfs) are shown in panel c of Fig. 3, from which not much
difference is visible between both the scenarios in near-future period, i.e. up to 2060. However,
the far-future period, the difference between SSP245 and SSP585 becomes prominent-
indicating a probable effect of increased anthropogenic activities towards the end of this
century (EOC).
Similar observations hold mostly true for AMDP as well – an indicator for extreme
precipitation. Here also, the low-precipitation zone HPZ-1 shows the maximum percentage
increase. However, unlike annual precipitation, in the case of AMDP, high-precipitation zone
like HPZ-6 also shows a substantial amount of increase. Overall, AMDP also shows an
increasing pattern all over the country. Thus, not only the mean precipitation is increasing, also
the extremes are increasing with an almost similar rate – which is quite alarming.
Next, the expected changes in variability of monthly precipitation are investigated and the
summary plots are shown in Fig. 4. The MME mean cycle of monthly precipitation over future
periods is shown in the figure across India and its six HPZs following two scenarios. A common
observation from all the plots is an unequivocal increase in precipitation, especially for the
high-rainfall months. However, the dry months (Dec to March) mostly remain dry or get even
drier. A noticeable amount of increase starts in summer months like April and May and reaches
maximum in late monsoon months like August and September. In general, the seasonal pattern
does not get disturbed but rather gets intensified across all six HPZs over the future. Similar to
our earlier findings, here also the maximum amount of increase is visible in the case of low-
precipitation-zones-such-as-HPZ-1 and 4, and the least increase in high-precipitation-zones
(HPZ-3-and-6).
Page 9
(a) Absolute changes (b) Percentage changes (%) (c) Underlying pdf
Annual Rainfall (mm)
1400 100
80
1050
60
700
40
350 20
0 0
100 80
AMDP (mm/day)
80 60
60
40
40
20 20
0 0
Near-future (SSP 245) Far-future (SSP 245) Near-future (SSP 585) Far-future (SSP585)
Figure 3: MME mean of (a) absolute changes, (b) percentage changes, and (c)
underlying pdfs of annual precipitation and AMDP across India over the future
following two scenarios.
Figure 4: MME mean changes in the monthly variation of precipitation, averaged

across the entire India and its six HPZs over the future following two scenarios.
Page 10
5 Conclusions
A set of newly proposed precipitation regions based on the both mean annual precipitation and
its seasonality is proposed in this study. The new regions are named as Homogeneous
Precipitation Zones (HPZs) in order to identify the places with coherent precipitation
characteristics across India. The novelty of this new zoning arises from the consideration of the
seasonality of precipitation, along with average annual precipitation, which makes it
particularly relevant from the context of changing climate. In comparison with the existing
Homogeneous Monsoon Regions (HMRs), the HPZs seem to be more reasonable in capturing
the true spatial variation of precipitation across India. It is worthwhile to mention that, even
finer zoning (i.e. more zones) for India is also possible using a similar methodological
approach. However, the present study preserved the number of zones at six in order to ensure
consistency with the HMRs. Further analysis with multi-model bias-corrected output from
CMIP6-GCMs indicates an overall wetter future across all HPZs, particularly, the low-
precipitation zones like HPZ-1 (northwest India) or HPZ-4 (peninsular India), along with
increased precipitation extremes. Although a robust pattern of increasing precipitation is
projected across all HPZs, the results might be subjected to various levels of uncertainties,
arising from inter-model variations, temporal scale of analysis, etc. These newly proposed
HPZs will be useful in various national and sub-national scale hydroclimatic studies across
India.
Acknowledgements
This iwork iis ipartially isupported iby ithe iMinistry iof iEarth iScience, iGovernment iof
iIndia ithrough ia isponsored iproject. iThe iauthors ifurther iacknowledge ithe iNational
iSupercomputing iMission i(NSM) ifor iproviding icomputing iresources iof i‘PARAM
iShakti’ iat iIIT iKharagpur, iwhich iis iimplemented iby iC-DAC iand isupported iby ithe
iMinistry iof iElectronics iand iInformation iTechnology i(MeitY) iand iDepartment iof
iScience iand iTechnology i(DST), iGovernment iof iIndia.
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Temporal optimization of single reservoir operation constraining

downstream water quality
Selvakumar P1. Ramsundram N.2
1
Research Scholar, Kumaraguru College of Technology, Coimbatore - 641035, INDIA
2
Associate Professor, Kumaraguru College of Technology, Coimbatore - 641035, INDIA
Email: selva.becivil@gmail.com, ramsundram.civil@kct.ac.in
ABSTRACT
Reservoirs are operated for stakeholders’ requirements based on the inflow and initial storage
volume/level. Operation rule curves are determined to resolve the conflict interesting of the
stakeholders, in terms of the quantity of water discharged. In the current scenario of urbanization, the
upstream scenarios can be used to dilute the downstream water quality with a controlled operation.
Few research works addressed the operation of the reservoir to achieve the desired water quality in a
particular space. In real life scenario, the reservoir downstream river passing through an urban
environment may have multiple effluent discharge points, whether it is possible to maintain the river
water quality. To understand the behavior of the river for regulated release from the reservoir, a
simulation-optimization algorithm is proposed. In this study, three major assumptions are considered
to develop the framework, i) the reservoir water is pure/water quality parameters are within acceptable
limits of drinking standard, and ii) the downstream river receives domestic load with organic
pollutants at assumed points. The simulation-optimization framework simulates the downstream
dissolved oxygen and efficacy of the Genetic Algorithm (GA), Bat algorithm (BA), and Whale
algorithm (WA) with a minimum penalty on the water quantity requirements. From the results two
key inferences are made; i) irrespective of the algorithm, stringent water quality constraints penalize
the convergence of the algorithm towards achieving optimality, and ii) release from the reservoir
increases by 150 % to maintain the downstream river water quality and thereby increasing the no
release months during low inflow months.
Keywords: water quality, reservoir operation, optimization, dissolved oxygen
1. INTRODUCTION
Reservoir is one among the important structure in water supply system. These are constructed for
single or multi-purpose operation in the environment. Reservoir operation is not always easy rather
difficult to supply water depending upon the scale of natural inflows and demands at a particular time,
water is either stored in the reservoir or supplied from the storage.
Fig. 1: Reservoir system and operation
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December 22 -24, 2022
The main function of a reservoir is ruling of natural streamflow by storing surplus water in the wet
season and releasing the stored water in a future dry season to supplement the reduction in river flow.
Few most important applications of reservoirs are irrigation, hydropower generation, flood control,
industrial and domestic water supply and fulfil the recreational requirements.
The multipurpose reservoir project is mostly doesn’t attain their whole objective, because of poor
water management which may due to improper reservoir operation practices, impoverished
maintenance of canal network, and administration issues related to flood in the downstream side of
reservoir. The multiplication of improper effluent discharge point, which leads the effluent load and
decreasing the water quality of reservoir at the downstream side. Hence, always required to proper
channelize for efficient reservoir operation practices, improving the reservoir quality and the behavior
of a water resource system and its existing demands.
Simulation and optimization are another important tool used to assess the various reservoir operation
(water flow/water level variations, flood monitoring and controlling, improve the irrigation practices
at dry monsoon period., etc.) and reservoir water quality control in the reservoir along the various
effluent discharge points. Reservoir optimization and modelling are tools, often which is used to
examine and assess the performance of complex water resources systems. Simulation models may be
deterministic or stochastic and it may be time sequenced or event sequenced.
Stephen J. L. Mallory (2013) carried out the reservoir operation during the drought time, the timing
and magnitude restraints, are referred in this research articles as an operating rule, has been
investigated in terms of how often the decision is made as to whether or not to apply restrictions at
any point in time. Several hypothetical systems were modelled using both annual and monthly
decisions based on the state of storage of the system.
Nima Ehsani., etal (2017) has presented the paper in a Neural Networks depends upon the General
Reservoir Operation Scheme to estimate the implications of climate change for dams on a regional
scale. This type of energetic daily reservoir module automatically adapts to changes in climate and re-
adjusts the operation of dams depends on water storage level, timing, and magnitude of incoming
flows. Janga reddy., etal (2005) has evolved the reservoir operation by Multi-objective Evolutionary
Algorithm (MOEA) has to derive a set of optimal operation policies for a multipurpose reservoir
system. The paper has employed a population-based search evolutionary algorithm named as Multi-
objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) to generate a Pareto optimal set. This algorithm is applied to a
realistic reservoir system in Bhadra Reservoir system, India. The reservoir helps several purposes in
irrigation, hydropower generation and downstream water quality requirements. Mathur. Y. P., etal
(2007) studied the paper by GA has used to optimize the operation of existing multipurpose reservoir
in India. Then it is to derive reservoir operating rules for optimal reservoir operations. The fitness
function has used to minimize the squared deviation of monthly irrigation demand along with the
squared deviation in mass balance equation.
Paulo Chaves., etal (2003) has carried out the optimization of storage reservoir for considering the
water quantity and quality. The main purpose of this paper is to consider a multipurpose reservoir,
under different water demands and uses from societies, concerning reservoir water quality. The
proposed optimization is realized by the use of dynamic programming combined with stochastic
algorithm that can handle the probabilistic characteristics of inflow quantity and quality. At Last, the
sensitivity analysis is carried out using a genetic algorithm model. Krit Sriworamas., etal (2021) has
investigated the paper is optimal reservoir of small reservoirs by optimization techniques on Reservoir
Simulation Model. The investigation linked the GA, Firefly Algorithm, Bat Algorithm, Flower
Pollination Algorithm, and Tabu Search Algorithm. It associated with the store reproduction model to
express through the ideal supply of standard bends. It is utilizing the Huay Ling Jone and Huay Sabag
supplies situated in Yasothorn Province, Thailand, as the contextual investigation. Vedula., etal
(1985) has evolved the paper for improved operating policies for multipurpose use in reservoir. The
project is studied using optimization and simulation based upon the 52-year record of monthly inflow
data for irrigation and hydropower generation. The probability distribution of the maximum possible
hydropower production has arrived by simulate the reservoir operation with 4 different sets of
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December 22 -24, 2022
synthetically generated monthly streamflow’s. The each having sequences of different lengths, for
two promising policies.
The proposed thesis has focused on following three major objectives;
 To develop the multi-objective multi-reservoir operation model and simulate the reservoir
operation based on the historical database
 Evaluate the gap that exists between actual operation and existing rule curve
 Performance evaluation of various optimization algorithms in the derivation of operational
rule curves in comparison with the historical releases and existing rule curves
2. MODEL CREATION
The model creation has been done by the help of two set of powerful tools used (Simulation and
optimization). Simulation and optimization are powerful mathematical techniques for using the
problems identification and analysis. Which is identified the lack of reservoir release patterns and
demand requirements in the selected study area.
2.1 Standard Operating Policy (SOP)
The release is made as per the line OABC in the Figure 2, however, the releases made according to
the Standard Operating Policy (SOP) need not be optimum (Vedula and Mujumdar, 2005).
Fig. 2: Standard Operating Policy (SOP)
If the available water is more than the demand, however, less than demand + maximum storage
capacity (St + Smax), then release is equal to the demand.
While including evaporation loss Et, the standard operating policy is mathematically can be expressed
as the following;
𝑅𝑡 = 𝐷𝑡 ,
𝑆𝑡 + 𝐼𝑡 − 𝐸𝑡 ≥ 𝐷𝑡 ------------------------------------------------------> 1
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
𝑆𝑡 + 𝐼𝑡 – 𝐸𝑡, otherwise -------------------------------------------------> 2

Outflow into river = river release + Spill,
Outflow = Rt + Ot,
Final Storage St+1 = St + It – Ot – Rt – Losses --------------------> 3

If, Ot = St+1 – smax,
Losses = Et,
Objective Function:
Constraints:
i) St+1 > St-1;
ii) St+1 < St < Smax;
iii) Rt < Dt;
iv) Ot = St+1 – smax.
If,
St+1 < Smax; Ot = St+1 – Smax,
Else,
Ot = 0.
Based on the Standard Operating Policy, if the total water available (storage, St + inflow, It) at a
particular period is less than the demand Dt, then all the available water is released.
2.2 Operation Rule Curve
A rule curve that stipulates the full storage of reservoir or sometimes blank space to be kept in a
reservoir many times of throughout the year. Here the implicit assumption is that a reservoir can best
satisfy its purposes, if the storage levels specified by the rule curve are maintained in the reservoir at
different periods. The rule curve inherently does not provide the amount of water to be released from
the reservoir. This amount of water filling, will depend upon the inflows to the reservoir and
sometimes it is specified in addition to rule curves. The rule curves are normally derived by operation
studies using historic flow or generated flows. Many times, in consequence of various conditions like
low inflows, minimum requirements for demands etc., it is not possible to stick to the rule with
respect to storage levels.
2.3 Simulation and optimization
2.3.1 Reservoir Simulation:
A mathematical model is a set of equations that, subject to certain assumptions, describes the physical
processes active in the reservoir. The purpose of reservoir simulation is to predict field performance
and ultimate recovery for various field development scenarios to evaluate the effects on recovery of
different operational conditions and compare economics of different recovery methods. The
Simulation method is a spatial and three-dimensional approach.
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
Simulation Studies:
❖ Technical and hydrologic details considered in the Simulation model include

o Intermediate catchment flows
o Storage dependent evaporation losses
o Reservoir inflows
2.3.2 Optimization:
Reservoir operation optimization secures benefits, such as optimizing energy production while
minimizing the possibility of flooding, operating costs, and water scarcity, at the lowest possible cost.
3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Table 1: Release vs Demand

Water storage
Demand Release Avg. Inflow
Months Level
(Mm3) (Mm3) (Mm3)
(m)
1 4.227249 4.198964 237 0.536344
2 3.426554 2.948622 241.6952 0.399806
3 1.951038 1.883844 236.1487 0.319188
4 0.314684 0.279755 240.2303 0.484209
5 2.492993 1.745928 239.9225 0.714238
6 3.356624 3.302222 236.3003 0.819496
7 3.143339 1.393519 246.8935 0.599223
8 0.325173 0.32358 241.9965 0.563614
9 0.157342 0.154729 236.3458 0.809403
10 0.758737 0.754581 247.3084 5.622967
11 2.989493 2.915715 237.5528 6.427627
12 5.094377 5.094377 248 3.052752
The above table -1 specifies the release verses demand in the reservoir operation. The results shows
that first four months demand and release has been decreased and average inflow have gradually
increased up to eleven months. After the fourth month the demand as well as release has been
increased as well as decreased based upon the average inflow and water storage.
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
Time Vs inflow & outflow Curve
450
400
350
water flow in Mm3
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Fig. 3: Demand Vs Release Curve

Time in months
The inflow and outflow curve shows the both flows have been slowly increased from the date of 24th
June 1992 and 28th July1992 the values are 34.44 Mm3 and 250.771 Mm3. But the date of 17th
November 1992 the inflow has been drastically increased and outflow have been drastically decreased
37.670 Mm3. The remaining days are level of inflows and outflows has been constant/same in the line.
Time vs Storage
14
water Storage in (Mm^3)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Time in months
Fig. 4: Time Vs Storage Curve
The time versus storage curve indicates that the level of storage has been slowly started increased
from the date of 03rd June 1992 to 28th November 1992 the values varying from 1.083 Mm3 to 9.49
Mm3. At the same time, after 28th November 1992 the values remains constant and finally it is
considerably increased on 19th November 1993 and the value is 12.66 Mm3.
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
14.0000 Storage Vs Elevation Curve

y = 0.1483x2 - 70.436x + 8363.9
Total Storage (Mm^3)
12.0000
10.0000
8.0000
6.0000
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
234.0000 236.0000 238.0000 240.0000 242.0000 244.0000 246.0000 248.0000
-2.0000
Water Level (m)
Fig.5: Storage vs Elevation Curve
From the above storage verses elevation curve, we have framed MAT Lab simulation equation for
optimization. The equation is;
y = 0.1483x2 - 70.436x + 8363.9.
3.1 simulation model

In the present study, the behavior of the Orathapalayam reservoir, Noyyal river system is analyzed
using a monthly time stepped simulation model using MATLAB® programming, which adheres to
standard operating policy (SOP).
The following figure 6 and 7 has showed the result of release verses demand patterns and the level of
reservoir optimization by the help of reservoir optimization curve.
Demand Vs Release Curve

6
Water flow in Mm^3
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demand 4.227 3.427 1.951 0.315 2.493 3.357 3.143 0.325 0.157 0.759 2.989 5.094
Release 4.199 2.949 1.884 0.28 1.746 3.302 1.394 0.324 0.155 0.755 2.916 5.094
Fig. 6: Demand Vs Release Curve
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
Fig. 7: Reservoir optimization Curve
The present study has analyzed by using MATLAB® programming based on the following coding
wise optimized
________________________________________________________________________________
clc
clear all
%disp ('Noyyal Water Level data')
disp (' Noyyal Orathapalayam Reservoir Water level
statement for the Year of 1991 to 1994 ')
load reservoir.txt
r(:,:)=reservoir(:,:);
s(:,1) =r(:,5);
i(:,1) =r(:,8);
o(:,1) =r(:,11);
s (1) =s (1);
smax = 17.443;
smin = 0.0497;
for k=1: length(r)
s(k+1) = s(k)+i(k)-o(k);
if s(k+1)>=smax;
o(k) = s(k+1)-smax;
s(k+1) =s(k)+i(k)-o(k);
end
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
if s(k+1) <=smin;
r(k)=0;
s(k+1) =s(k)+i(k)-r(k);
end
end
_______________________________________________________________________________
3.2. Water Quality Variations
The following table - 2. shows that result of BOD level of at initial (Lo) and final discharge point (L).
Table 2: Release vs BOD Variations

Avg. L0 L
Months Ibc(t) Ioc(t) Spill (o(t)) x(t)
Inflow (mg/l) (mg/l)
1 12 1 0.3447924 188.82203 4.22699788 4.15133967 5.182974861
2 18 1 0.25701783 196.603108 3.42645945 3.40997021 4.381377062
3 2 3 0.20519202 216.785431 1.95091059 1.45480257 1.816330562
4 7 1.5 0.31127711 242.681864 0.31283155 0.18949602 0.238730952
5 30 1 0.45915303 203.133473 2.49258481 1.45879919 1.821320377
6 24 1 0.52681867 184.23151 3.3562363 3.1272768 3.939807196
7 36 1 0.38521454 185.216464 3.13917682 3.13718083 3.916790879
8 12 1.5 0.36232298 241.187 0.32442855 0.21946055 0.273997944
9 9 2 0.5203307 244.538492 0.15734129 0.148055 0.186522719
10 6 2.5 3.61476434 230.668191 0.75355691 0.59259916 0.739863944
11 36 1 4.1320459 176.289146 2.98795226 2.39458351 3.016745224
12 20 1 1.9624837 152.065684 3.83737264 5.09437658 6.360362638
Release Vs BOD variation

7
6
BOD Level Mg/l
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
L0 4.151343.40997 1.4548 0.1895 1.4588 3.127283.137180.219460.14806 0.5926 2.394585.09438
L 5.182974.381381.816330.238731.821323.939813.91679 0.274 0.186520.739863.016756.36036
Release 4.151343.40997 1.4548 0.1895 1.4588 3.127283.137180.219460.14806 0.5926 2.394585.09438
Fig. 8: Release vs BOD Variation
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
4. CONCLUSIONS
The comparison of above results and SOP of simulation model which clearly indicates that the present
system have water flow and water quality deviation in few months. The system having relatively
moderate reliability and often it is experiencing a few changes should be needed their operational
policies and reservoir operations. Thus, the behaviors of the system were analyzed and keeping all the
factors into their account. The current status of the system is endorsed by the optimization procedure
shall be incorporate the storage constraints for the required scenario.
5. REFERENCES
1. Janga reddy. M and Nagesh kumar. D., (2006) Optimal Reservoir Operation Using Multi-
Objective Evolutionary Algorithm. Springer (Water Resources Management), Vol. No. 861–
878, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-005-9011-1.
2. Krit Sriworamas., Anongrit Kangrang., Teerawat Thongwan., and Haris Prasanchum., (2021)
Optimal Reservoir of Small Reservoirs by Optimization Techniques on Reservoir Simulation
Model. Research Article, Journal of Advances in Civil Engineering, Volume 2021 | Article ID
6625743.
3. Mathur. Y. P., and Nikam. S. J., (2009) Optimal Reservoir Operation Policies Using
Genetic Algorithm. International Journal of Engineering and Technology Vol. 1, No. 2, 1793-
8236.
4. Mujumdar, P.P., and Vedula. S. (2005). Water Resources Systems. Tata McGraw-Hill
Education, New Delhi.
5. Nima Ehsani., Charles J. Vorosmarty., Balazs M. Fekete., and Eugene Z. Stakhiv., (2017)
Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk. Journal
of Hydrology, Vol. No. 435-446, 0022-1694.
6. Paulo Chaves., Toshiharu Kojiri., and Yosuke Yamashiki., (2003) Optimization of storage
reservoir considering water quantity and quality. Published online in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com), 17, 2769–2793.
7. Stephen J. L. Mallory., (2013) Reservoir operation and the frequency of decision making.
Hydrological Change in Reservoir Planning and Management Proceedings of H09, IAHS-
IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden.
8. Vedula. S., Mohan. S., and Shrestha.V. S., (1986) Improved operating policies for
multipurpose use: A case study of Bhadra Reservoir. Springer Vol. 9, Part 3, pp. 157-176.
9. Wurbs. R. A. (1993). Reservoir-system simulation and optimization models. Journal of Water
Resources Planning and Management, 119(4), 455-472.
10. Wenzhuo Wang etal., 2021, ‘Comparison of representative heuristic algorithms for integrated
reservoir optimal operation’, Springer, 10.21203/rs.3.rs-201926/v1.
11. Vinod Chandra, S, S., Anand Hareendran, S., and Saju Sankar, S., 2020, ‘Optimal Reservoir
Optimization Using Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm’, Springer Nature Switzerland AG,
ICSI 2020, LNCS 12145, pp. 445–454, 2020.
12. Teerawat Thongwan, a., Anongrit Kangrang, a., Haris Prasanchum., 2019, ‘Multi-objective
future rule curves using conditional tabu search algorithm and conditional genetic algorithm
for reservoir operation’, Elsevier, VOLUME 5, ISSUE 9, E02401.
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13. Xinyuan Liu., Yonghui Zhu., and Lingyun Li., Lu Chen., 2018, ‘Comparative Study of
Optimization Algorithms for The Optimal Reservoir Operation’, MATEC Web of
Conferences 246, 01003.
14. Optimization of Multipurpose Reservoir Operation by Coupling Soil and Water Assessment
Tool (SWAT) and Genetic Algorithm for Optimal Operating Policy (Case Study: Ganga
River Basin) (2018)
15. Omid Bozorg-Haddad etal., 2017, ‘Optimal operation of reservoir systemswith the symbiotic
organisms search (SOS) algorithm’, Journal of Hydroinformatics, vol 19.4, PP. 507- 521.
16. Optimal Operation of a Network of Multi-Purpose Reservoir: A Review (2016)
17. Optimal Reservoir Operation Using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (2006)
Page 11
Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Its Relation with Groundwater

Recharge
Nandurkar,R.1, Katiyar,P.2 ,Vasudeo, A.3 , Godbole.S.4
1
Research Scholar, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur - 440010, India;
Email: dt21civ003@students.vnit.ac.in
2
Research Scholar, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur - 440010, India;
Email: pranjul133@gmail.com
3
Professor, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur – 440010, India
Email: avasudeo@yahoo.com
4
Professor, Dr. Ambedkar Institute of Management Studies and Research, Nagpur - 440010,
India; Email: snehal_prakash1@rediffmail.com
Abstract
Agriculture has biggish contribution in Indian economy which mainly impacts due to spatio-
temporal variability of rainfall. More than half of the population relies on agriculture activities
for their lifework. The study of precipitation trends is captiously important for a country like
India, whose food security and economy relies on timely availability of water. Hence, it is
noteworthy to evaluate whether there is any trend in rainfall and any pattern in variability. The
main objective of the inquest is the trend analysis of the rainfall and groundwater level. Umred
tehsil, Nagpur district in India has been selected for the present study. Rainfall trend over past
100 year was identified by Mann-Kendall statistical analysis. The Sen-Slope estimator was
used to find out the magnitude of an annual trend of groundwater levels as well as rainfall.
Rainfall in the study area (ZC) showed decreasing trend over past 100 years. By using though
the number of rainy days show increasing trend (0.333 day/year) in the study area because of
positive ZC values, the annual rainfall decreased with magnitude of 8.3818 mm (Sen-Slope).
The positive sign of ZC indicates declining groundwater level with respect to the ground surface
and vice versa. The range of groundwater level (meter below ground level) values of ZC varied
from -0.46 to -0.60 and Sen Slope varies from – 0.1 to -0.134 in the study area. The amount of
groundwater recharge depends upon the intensity and frequency of rainfall, as rainfall is main
source of groundwater recharge. According to results, groundwater level shows increasing
trend. Seasonal fluctuation of ground water level is correlated with the monsoon rainfall
however the recharge coefficient is 0.048 and correlation coefficient is 0.2123.
Keywords: Trend Analysis of Precipitation, Mann Kendal Test, Sen-Slope estimator,

Groundwater Recharge and Rainfall relation
1. Introduction
After green revolution, Agriculture water demand increased and surface water based irrigation
has limited reached. The situation is further aggravated by decreasing availability of surface
water in India. Estimated surface water availability in India was 2384 km3 in the year 2000
against 6008 km3 in 1947 (Nagarajan, 2006). Rapid expansion of industry, increase in the
population, and the water intensive cropping patterns are resulting in increasing water demand
Page 1
and exploitation of groundwater (WWAP, 2003). Due to availability of groundwater, it can

exploit at any time. Groundwater is an important resource of freshwater throughout the world
(Singh, 2013). Groundwater constitutes one-third of all the freshwater in the world and it fulfils
the water requirement for domestic usage (37%), agriculture (42%), and industrial sector (22%)
(Doll et al., 2012). In rural and urban India, groundwater dominant source of water supply.
Because of subsidized electricity for pumping and demands for irrigation, drinking and
industrial use which consequently led to widespread ground water depletion. The
overexploitation of groundwater has severe socio-economic consequences in semi-arid region.
The excess withdrawal of groundwater than recharge has led to the decline of ground water
table (Rai et al., 2006). In India, the ground water table has dropped by more than 2 meter on
long term basis in Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu
(CGWB, 2009). Hence groundwater recharge phenomenon comes in to light and its relation
with rainfall is implemented from investigative prospective. The groundwater recharge
quantity depends on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, infiltration, soil type and soil
moisture content (Oke et al., 2014) (Machiwal & Jha, 2014). Long term pattern of monsoon
rainfall is influenced by anthropogenic activities like climate change (Turner & Annamalai,
2012). It is seen that mean groundwater level increases (deeper from ground surface) sharply
with decreasing rainfall. The study of precipitation trend is critically important for country like
India, whose food security and economy dependent on timely availability of water. In India,
spatio-temporal variability of rainfall is a prime driver of Indian economy. The primary
objective of this study was to find out trend analysis of temporal variability of precipitation
pattern for given groundwater level availability.
There were many statistical tools available for trend analysis like t test, regression analysis,
Pettit Mann Whitney test, Mann Kendall test etc. Here we adopted Mann Kendall and Sen
Slope estimator test to analyse rainfall and groundwater level data. Groundwater and
precipitation correlation was found out by Pearson correlation coefficient. Land Use –Land
Cover classification occurred using supervised classification technique. Groundwater recharge
coefficient was calculated using guidelines given by groundwater estimation committee. The
outcomes will help to estimate water supply to fulfil water demand.
To fulfil research objectives, data was collected from government agencies. In this study
python script, MS Excel, QGIS, as a tool for analysis of precipitation, groundwater level and
generation of graphs and preparation of maps were used.
Umred Tehsil in Nagpur District, Maharashtra is one among drought affected regions in central
India. Umrer tehsil within Nagpur district has been selected for the study area. Umred Tehsil
lies between 20˚40’0’’N to 21˚0’00’N latitude and 79˚0’0’’E to 79˚25’00’’E longitude
encompassing a geographical area of about 97,900 hectares (ha) as shown in Figure 1.
Page 2
Figure 1 Study Area (Umred Tehsil, Nagpur District, Maharashtra, India)

Nagpur geographically lies in the center of India, Zero milestone of India located within the
city itself. Nagpur is the fastest growing city according to United Nation Habitat-2011. Study
area experiences tropical semi-arid climate. Nagpur has hot with dry climate in summer and
cool with dry climate in winter.The average maximum and minimum temperatures in summer
are 48˚c and 30˚c respectively and in winter are 32˚c and 5˚c respectively. It receives the normal
annual rainfall of 1006.78 mm where 90% of precipitation occurs during June to September
month. The maximum monsoon rainfall of 1668.92 mm was reported in the year 1933 and
minimum of 663.96 in 1972. The mean monsoon rainfall is 1165.48 mm. The maximum
monsoon rainy days were 21 in month July 2010. The rainy season (wet period) usually starts
from mid-June and last for about 5 months up to the end of October. November to April is
considered as the dry period. The normal annual potential evapotranspiration is 80.52 mm.
For given study area, the soil is dominated by the clay content to the depth of 10 – 25cm. The
clayey soil has high water holding capacity. Plateaus and pediplain landforms are present in
this region. Black soil overlaying weathered Deccan basaltic rock act as a shallow aquifer that
caters to recharging of shallow dug wells. According to Ground water estimation committee
report 2015, the yield of the basalt rock is generally from 1 to 480 m3 per day, specific yield
for weathered, vesicular jointed basalt is 1 % to 3% and the ground water recharge occurring
from rainfall is generally 4% to 13%.
The data related to groundwater assessment was collected from different government agencies.
QGIS version 3.10 was used for creating geospatial database layers for various attributes (Table
1). Python script version 3.0 was used to analyse trends of the rainfall as well as groundwater
levels. In this study, python library was used for Mann-Kendall trend (MK) test and Sen-Slope
estimations. According to research objectives, above data could fulfil analysis requirement of
the given study area.
Page 3
Table 1: Data Source and Its Application
Sr. No. Attributes of Data Source Use

1 Groundwater level Central Ground Water Board Groundwater level
Pre & Post (CGWB) fluctuation
Monsoon
2 Rainfall Yearly India Water Portal Regional variation
(1901-2021) (https://indiawris.gov.in/wris/#/rainf of rainfall
all)
2.2 Methodology
The geospatial database was created using available information in polygon feature, point
features and from satellite images for trend analysis of groundwater and rainfall.LU-LC
classified based on supervise classification (maximum likelihood classifier) using software tool
like QGIS. For trend analysis we adopted most common techniques like MK test and Sen-Slope
estimator. For correlation between groundwater level and precipitation data Pearson correlation
coefficient was calculated. For recharge coefficient calculation, we used detailed guidelines of
ground water estimation committee, 2015.
Point Data Thematic Data
Rainfall data Groundwater level data Admin Boundary
Geospatial Data
Land Use Land Cover

Statistical Analysis
Classification
Groundwater recharge and

Rainfall Relationship
Figure 2 Methodology Flow Chart
Page 4
2.3 Trend Analysis
Generally Mann-Kendall (MK) test is commonly employed in climatologic time series. To

determine the importance of trend of rainfall as well as groundwater level we adopted this test..
The main advantage of these test are simple and reliable and it can handle missing numbers as
well as values below the detection threshold. Auto-correlation played important role in trend
analysis. MK test is a non-parametric statistical procedure. Two hypotheses were examined
using the MK test. For a particular significance level, Null hypothesis (Ho): There is no trend
in time series, and alternative hypothesis (Ha): There is a significant trend. Probability is what
determines how certain we can be in our hypothesis (P). Accepting the Ha is thought to show
that a trend is statistically significant. Acceptance of the Ho, on either hand, means that there
is no trend (no change), but the trend equation typically indicates the contrary, i.e., that there
is a trend.
For spatial variation and temporal trend analysis of hydro-climatic series, Man-Kendall test
and Sen-slope estimator have been used. MK test was used for evaluating trends in data over
time. The MK statistics was denoted by parameter ZC. The positive and negative value of ZC
indicated an increase and decrease in constitute concentration over the time period. While the
ZC in a normalize test having zero value reflects normal distributed data sets. For calculation
of ZC value, we used equation (1)
𝑆−1
𝑖𝑓 𝑆 > 0
√𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑆)
𝑍𝐶 = 0 𝑖𝑓 𝑆 = 0 (1)
𝑆+1
𝑖𝑓 𝑆 < 0
{√𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑆) }
Where,
𝑛
𝑛
𝑆=∑ ∑𝑗=𝑖+1 𝑆𝑔𝑛 (𝐾𝑗 − 𝐾𝑖) (1.1)
𝑖=1
Where,
+1, 𝑖𝑓(𝐾𝑗 − 𝐾𝑖) > 0

(1.2)
Sgn(𝐾𝑗 − 𝐾𝑖) = {{ 0, 𝑖𝑓(𝐾𝑗 − 𝐾𝑖) = 0 }
−1, 𝑖𝑓(𝐾𝑗 − 𝐾𝑖) < 0
{𝑛(𝑛−1)(2𝑛+5)}−∑𝑡𝑝(𝑡𝑝−1)(2𝑡𝑝+5),(𝑝=1 to 𝑞)
𝜎2 = (2)
18
The mean of S is E[S] = 0 and the variance σ2 (equation 2) and the method for calculating this
probability will now be discussed. The normalized statistic is calculated as follows for this
purpose, ZC. Where, Kj and Ki are the annual values in years j and i, j>i, respectively, and n is
the number of data points. q is the number of tied (zero difference between compared values)
groups, and tp is the number of data values in the pth group.
Sen-Slope estimator was used to find out the magnitude of an annual trend of groundwater
Page 5
levels and rainfall. Sen's slope estimator is used to calculate the size of the univariate time
series trend (Theil 1950; Sen 1968). This method includes computing slopes for each pair of
ordinal time instants and then estimating the overall slope using the medians of these slopes.
Theil–estimator Sen's was used to calculating the slope of n pairs of data points as given
equation (3)
𝑥𝑗 −𝑥𝑘
𝑄𝑖 = 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖 = 1, … 𝑁 (3)
𝑗−𝑘
Where xj and xk are the data values at times j and k, respectively (j > k). Sen's estimator of the
slope is the median of these N no. of Qi values using equation 3. If each period has only one
data point, N is given by equation (3.1)
𝑛(𝑛−1)
𝑁= (3.1)
2
The slope of Sen's slope estimator was reported as the median of n values of Qi and is given by
𝑆𝑛+1 𝑖𝑓 𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑑𝑑
2
𝑄𝑖 = {1 (3.2)
(𝑆 𝑛 + 𝑆𝑛+2 ) 𝑖𝑓 𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛
2 2 2
After computing Q1 for testing, the genuine slope was compared to the horizontal line, and if
the slope is upward, the trend is increasing; if the slope is downwards, the trend is falling;
otherwise, there is no trend in the time series.
2.4 Ground water level and Rainfall correlation
The high intensity rainfall may reduce the groundwater recharge and increase the runoff
(Dourte et al., 2012). Groundwater recharge from precipitation mainly occurs in the rainy
season when rainstorm or successive heavy rain events happen (Song et al., 2011). Ground
water level and rainfall correlation can be found out by using statistical approach. Here we
adopted correlation between sets of data. The most common measure of correlation in stats is
the Pearson Correlation. It shows the linear relationship between two sets of data using equation
as follows.
𝑛(∑ 𝑥𝑦)−(∑ 𝑥)(∑ 𝑦)

𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟 = (4)
√[𝑛 ∑ 𝑥 2 −(∑ 𝑥)2 ][𝑛 ∑ 𝑦 2 −(∑ 𝑦)2 ]
Where,
x is dependent variable and y is independent variable.
The value of Corr lies between -1 and 1
Where,
1 indicates a strong positive relationship.
-1 indicates a strong negative relationship.
A result of zero indicates no relationship at all.
Page 6
2.5 Ground water recharge coefficient
The understanding of groundwater recharge process and its relationship with rainfall is of
critical importance to the management of groundwater system (Wu et al., 1996). The estimation
of groundwater recharge from precipitation is a principle part of hydrology and hydrogeology
(Thomas et al., 2009). The ground water recharge coefficient was estimated according to
Ground water estimation committee detailed guideline 2015 as in equation (5)
∆𝐻∗𝑆𝑦 ∗𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡

𝑅 = 𝑅𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙∗𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡 (5)
Where,
∆𝐻 = Change in groundwater level from pre monsoon season to post monsoon season
𝑆𝑦 = Specific yield of basalt rock of study area
R = Recharge coefficient
2.6 Land Use – Land Cover classification
The Landsat 8 satellite image of 30*30 m resolution, dated November 13, 2013, was obtained
from the Landsat 8 (Operational Land Imager sensor) Archives, USGS. Bands 4 (Red), 3
(Green) and 2 (Blue) corresponding to path/row 144/45 and 144/46 were used for land use and
land cover classification of the study area. Supervised classification using maximum likelihood
classifier in QGIS 3.10 is used. The maximum likelihood classifier is statistical decision
criterion it assists in classification of overlapping signatures; pixels are assigned to the class of
highest probability. The maximum likelihood classifier is considered to be more accurate
results than parallelepiped classifier; however it is much slower due to extra computation. The
land use and land cover information was classified into six categories: water bodies, vegetation
cover, forest land, agriculture land, fallow land and settlement in Figure 3, Table 2 shows the
surface area (in ha) covered by various land use and land cover classes classified from satellite
image.
Page 7
Figure 3 Land Use Land Cover Classification of Study Area
Table 2: Land Use and Land Cover Classification
Sr. No. Land use/ land cover Pixel count Percent Area in ha.
1 Water bodies 23,225 2.066114 2020.575
2 Fallow land 1,94,039 17.26186 16,881.39
3 Agriculture land 51,7244 46.01442 45,000.23
4 Natural Vegetation 95,122 8.462126 8,275.614
5 Forest 2,76,654 24.61135 24,068.9
6 Settlement 17,807 1.584124 1,549.209
Total 11,24,091 100 97,795.92
According to LU-LC classification, forest and agriculture area are predominant one.
Page 8

Rainfall intensity, frequency and spatial variation affects groundwater recharge and irrigation
water demand. Yearly rainfall data collected for period 1901-2021 from Nagpur rain gauge
station. The annual rainfall data with yearly average is presented in Figure 4 &5. The rainfall
data and ground water level data for period of 1996 to 2019 collected from Government of
India was used to analyse trends in the study area.
According to Table 3, Rainfall in the study area (ZC) showed decreasing trend over past 100
years. In the study area because of positive ZC values the number of rainy days show increasing
trend (0.333 day/year) and the annual rainfall decreased with magnitude of 1.57 mm (Sen
Slope).
Figure 4 Rainfall Trend Analysis
The following are the required results obtained from the given data analysis.
Table 3: Results obtained from MK Test and Sen Slope Estimator
Rainfall Rainy Jan_GWL May_GWL Aug_GWL Oct_GWL

(Magnitude) Days Pre- Post-
monsoon monsoon
Trend Decreasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing
ZC -0.1615 0.3307 -0.6 -0.42 -0.524 -0.46
Slope -1.57 0.333 -0.134 -0.175 -0.070 -0.1
Page 9
Note: Jan_GWL means January month trend of groundwater level meter below ground level
and similar for the month of May, August and October.
Figure 5 Annual Rainfall and Seasonal Fluctuation of Groundwater level
The difference between pre and post monsoon water levels indicates the synergy between
groundwater recharge and draft of a region. The negative sign of Zc indicates increasing
groundwater level with respect to the ground surface. The range of groundwater level (meter
below ground level) values of ZC varied from -0.46 to -0.60 and Sen Slope varies from – 0.1 to
-0.134 in the study area. Hence groundwater level shows increasing trend.
Groundwater Level Trend

Rainfall Trend Analysis Analysis
Rainfall No. of Rainy Month wise Trend

Magnitude Days analysis
Increase in trend of Groundwater Level (Because of increasing trend of no.

of rainy days with decreasing trend of magnitude of rainfall which indicate
ground water recharge occurring with recharge coefficient is 0.048 and the
correlation coefficient is 0.2123)
Figure 6: Analysis of Results obtained from Trend Analysis

Page 10
According to Figure 6, the amount of groundwater recharge relies on the intensity and no. of
rainy days of rainfall, as rainfall is main source of groundwater recharge in the study area.
Seasonal fluctuation of water table is correlated with the monsoon rainfall. The recharge
coefficient 0.048 and correlation coefficient is 0.2123.
Conclusion
We find out interesting facts for the given study area are as follows:
1. The detailed quantitative groundwater analysis at tehsil level enables an

understanding of the relationship between different aspects of rainfall vis. pre-monsoon and
post-monsoon groundwater depth.
2. According to MK test and Sen-slope estimator, trend of the rainfall of the study area
shows decreasing trend for magnitude while in terms of no. of days indicates positive trend.
The occurrence of rainfall with timely distributed manner, the groundwater level showed
increasing trend in the given study area.
3. According to Ground water estimation committee report 2015, in Deccan basaltic
rock, groundwater recharge occurring from rainfall was generally 4% to 13%. We found that
recharge coefficient was 4.8% in the study area.
Acknowledgment
The authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department (IMD), Central Water
Commission (CWC) and Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) for providing the necessary
data to conduct the present study.
References
CGWB, (2009). Report of groundwater resource estimation committee, Ministry of water

resources, Govetment of India.
Doll, P., Hoffmann-Dobrev, H., Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., Eicker, A., Rodell, M., …
Scanlon, B. R. (2012). Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface
water on continental water storage variations. Journal of Geodynamics, 59-60, 143–
156. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2011.05.001
Dourte, D., Shukla, S., Singh, P., & Haman, D. (2012). Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency
Relationships for Andhra Pradesh, India: Changing Rainfall Patterns and Implications
for Runoff and Groundwater Recharge. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18(3),
324–330. http://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000625
Machiwal, D., & Jha, M. K. (2014). Characterizing rainfall-groundwater dynamics in a hard-
rock aquifer system using time series, geographic information system and
geostatistical modelling. Hydrological Processes, 28(5), 2824–2843.
http://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9816
Nagarajan R (2006) "Water conservation, use and management for semiarid regions", Capital
Publishing Company, New Delhi, pp.353, ISBN-81-85589-34-8
Page 11
Oke, M. O., Martins, O., & Idowu, O. A. (2014). Determination of rainfall-recharge

relationship in River Ona basin using soil moisture balance and water fluctuation
methods. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,
6(1), 1–11. http://doi.org/10.5897/IJWREE2013.0443
Rai, S. N., Manglik, A., & Singh, V. S. (2006). Water table fluctuation owing to time-varying
recharge, pumping and leakage. Journal of Hydrology, 324(1-4), 350–358.
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.029
Sen, P.K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the
American statistical association, 63(324), pp.1379-1389.
Singh, A. (2013). Simulation and Optimization Modeling for the Management of Groundwater
Resources. I: Distinct Applications. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering,
140(4), 4013021. http://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000688
Song, X., Wang, P., Yu, J., Liu, X., Liu, J., & Yuan, R. (2011). Relationships between
precipitation, soil water and groundwater at Chongling catchment with the typical
vegetation cover in the Taihang mountainous region, China. Environmental Earth
Sciences, 62(4), 787–796. http://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0566-7
Theil, H., 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression
analysis. Indagationes mathematicae, 12(85), p.173.
Thomas, T., Jaiswal, R. K., Galkate, R., & Singh, S. (2009). Development of a rainfall-recharge
relationship for a fractured basaltic aquifer in Central India. Water Resources
Management, 23(15), 3101–3119. http://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9425-2
Turner, A. G., & Annamalai, H. (2012). Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon.
Nature Climate Change, 2(8), 587–595. http://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495
WWAP (United Nations/World Water Assessment Programme) (2003) UN World Water
Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life. UNESCO (United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) and Berghahn Books, Paris, New
York and Oxford
Wu, J., Zhang, R., & Yang, J. (1996). Analysis of rainfall-recharge relationships, 177, 143–
160.
Page 12
Impact of Climate Change Scenarios on Inflows into Bhakra Dam from the
Satluj Basin
Gupta, K.K.1, Kumar S.2, Suri, S.3
1
Dr., Chief Engineer (Former), Water Resources Dept, Punjab, India – 160012; E-mail:
kkgupta88@hotmail.com
2
Dr., Professor, Punjab Engg. College, Chandigarh, India – 160012; Email:
shakti@pec.edu.in
3
Chief Engineer, Bhakra Dam (Former), Nangal, Punjab – 140124; Email:
sanjaysanjeev@gmail.com
Abstract
While climate research is underway at hundreds of prestigious universities and centres, there
is wide divergence in forecasts made by various proponents following one or the other
algorithms. The Bhakra Beas Management Board and other large project authorities are
formulating amelioration plans contingent upon significant changes in hydrological parameters
owing to climate-influenced temporal and spatial changes in rainfall patterns, vegetation cover,
snowfall amounts, glacier melts, rise in average temperatures, season changes and concomitant
alterations in world circulation patterns, ocean currents, and a dozen other meteorological
variables. The present study aims to study the impact of climate change on the net flows of
Satluj basin as it affects the inflows into Bhakra dam so that water availability, releases and
allocations can be reevaluated for better management of BBMB reservoir system. The daily
discharge time series of Satluj at Bhakra shows a pronounced downward trend. The snowfall,
rainfall and temperature data time-series of Chinese sub-basins are virtually non-existent,
compounding the existing complexities of climate science. The paper considers the viability
of stochastic and regression models on one hand, and the deterministic approach on the other
hand, for application towards the problem of forecasting future trends in the inflows into
Bhakra dam.
Keywords: Climate change, hydrology, rivers, basins
1. Introduction
There is an urgent need for realistic assessment of future trends in hydrological outputs from
major water retaining systems, so that appropriate intervention strategies can be formulated.
The major issue of complexity in climate science is that of uncertainty arising from diverse
inherent factors (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) e.g.:
• Non-cyclical behaviour of natural systems

• Measurement errors, missing data
• Unpredictable political and consequent economic cycles
• Changes in hydro-ecology of river systems
The present study seeks to quantify the impact of climate change on the net outflows from
Satluj basin so that water availability, releases and allocations algorithms can be assessed for
better management of BBMB reservoir system. The suitability of different approaches viz.
stochastic, and deterministic methods is explored in detail towards this objective.
Page 1
2. Data Available
Long time series of precipitation and discharges from gauges at various locations are available
from diverse sources. These time series are, however, of varying quality and do not subscribe
to a standard format.
3.1 Sutlej River basin
The catchment area of Satluj is about 57,000 sq. km. at Bhakra dam-site. Of this about 19,000
sq. km. lies in India - much of it in inaccessible regions of glacial Himachal Pradesh), while
about 65% area (37,000 sq. km.) lies in Tibet, China. The rainfed area of Satluj catchment
amounts to only 12% of the total area at 6700 sq. km.
Figure 1 : Sub-catchments of Satluj Basin
Table 1 shows the sub-catchments of the Satluj basin.
Area Area
No. Catchment No. Catchment
km2 km2
1 Satluj_1 6534.8 14 Spiti_1 4386.2
2 Satluj_2 8392.3 15 Spiti_3 592.1
3 Satluj_3 9135.3 16 Rongtong_1 1990.3
4 Satluj_4 4532.4 17 Rongtong_2 1261
5 Satluj_5 2564.8 18 Rongtong_3 1036
6 Satluj_6 2836.5 19 Rongtong_4 1005.9
7 Satluj_7 2099.5 20 Ali_Khad 69.9
8 Satluj_8 2121.2 21 Gambar 743.3
9 Satluj_9 679.3 22 Lunkar_Khad 49.7
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10 Satluj_10 173.6 23 Sarhali_Khad 95.7

11 Satluj_11 1070.2 24 Seer_Khad 425.2
12 Spiti_2 2206.6 25 Sukar_Khad 164.2
13 Baspa 990.2
Table 1 : Data of sub-catchments of Satluj Basin
3.2 Precipitation Data
Precipitation data was available from various sources. For example, from Hydrology Division
at Nangal, the following data were obtained.
Ali 1974-2013 Seer 1961-2017

Lunkhar 1958-2013 Sukhar 1958-2017
Sarhali 1958-2013
Figure 2: Monthly Rainfall near Bhakra dam 1971-2011.
• Monthly rainfall data of 27 stations in the Satluj basin for the period 1962-2000.
• TRMM monthly rainfall data of from April, 2013 to Oct., 2017 for all the 25 sub-
catchments of Satluj has been made available by the NHP team at Chandigarh.
• Daily rainfall data of Satluj at R.L. 1700 (near Bhakra dam) has also been located for a
long period of 1965-2014, which will be mined extensively for this study.
Page 3
3.3 Discharge data
Daily discharge data of Ali, Lunkhar, Sarhali, Seer and Sukhar khads for about 40 years is
available up to August, 2008 in some cases.
Figure 3 : Rainfall-runoff data of Satluj river at Bhakra 1971-81
Daily discharge data of Satluj at Bhakra for 1963-2016 was also compiled. Monthly discharge
data since 1909 was available in hand-written registers. This data seemed to be of very high
quality, so it was typed in Excel sheets for the period 1941-76. Figure 3 shows monthly rainfall
hyetographs and discharge.
The longest monthly series data (1909-1917) was calculated from the 10-daily inflows into
Bhakra dam. Due to the substantial length and good quality of this data, it is employed
extensively in this report for various time-series and forecast analyses.
3.4 Temperature Data
Temperature data from various sources and formats was used. Twice-daily temperature data
at Bhakra (RL 1700) for the period 1966-2008 was the longest series discovered, and has been
used in the following analyses and for regression studies with rainfall and runoff.
Figure 4 : Annual discharge vs. temperature at Bhakra dam site.
Page 4
The series reported temperature at 5:00 and 14:00 every day; this was averaged to provide daily
figures for correlation studies. . Figure 4 juxtaposes mean annual temperature at Bhakra with
mean annual discharge of Satluj at Bhakra. The two variables do not seem to be correlated.
3. Data Analysis
3.1 Sofware used
Much of the initial work upon visualization of input data was done in Python . Python was
selected because of its superior plotting capabilities compared to Excel, and its facility for web-
deployment (McKinney, 2013). It was also hoped that working with Python will be useful
towards tweaking of MIKE RTDSS software as it uses Python as the scripting language.
After importing time series into Python and creating plots, it became obvious that R has
infinitely superior packages for statistical analyses, regression studies, time series synthesis
and forecast (Dalgaard, 2008). Therefore, bulk of the work on these topics has done using R
packages. Besides, plotting and graphing capabilities of R far exceed those of Python, as four
independent and comprehensive packages have been developed (Murrell, 2019).
3.2 Precipitation Analysis
The annual total rainfall series of stations with long records have been subjected to stochastic
time-series analysis to determine any trend or persistence. Hydrological time series, however,
are nearly always non-stationary (Chow et. al., 2013).
Figure 5 : Moving average plot of annual rainfall at Bhakra
The rolling mean studies upon annual rainfall (Figure 5) does not show any trend. This calls
for trend investigation of monsoon and non-monsoon period rainfall.
3.3 Discharge
The rolling window is again used to smoothen the plot and damp down the fluctuations. The
downward trend of the mean annual discharge is accentuated when moving averages are used.
Page 5
Figure 6 : Annual discharge of Satluj along with the moving average.
This calls for trend investigation of monsoon and non-monsoon period mean river discharge.
As Figures 7 and 8 show, monsoon as well non-monsoon mean monthly discharges also show
an unmistakable downward trend.
Figure 7: Moving average plot: Monsoon period mean monthly discharge at Bhakra
Figure 8 : Moving average plot: Non-monsoon mean monthly discharge at Bhakra
Page 6
3.4 Temperature
The actual recorded average daily temperature series near Bhakra dam is depicted (Fig. 9)
along with mean annual discharge of Satluj. It can be seen that it is hard to find any correlation
between the two.
Figure 9 : Annual discharge vs. temperature at Bhakra
4. Regression Studies
The monthly rainfall and runoff plot (Fig. 10) shows a non-linear relationship. Various kinds
of non-linear equations are tried, and the best fit is obtained by an equation of the type:
Q= a*Rainfall^0.15 + b
where a, b are constants. a=2500, b=-3200
Figure 10 : Monthly rainfall vs. runoff of Satluj at Bhakra
Now the annual flow series is plotted against rainfall at Bhakra (Fig. 11). The relationship
between annual rainfall and runoff is also found to be non-linear. An outlier can be spotted at
Page 7
left of the plot. For regression studies on annual values, this point has been excluded as it will
unduly influence the results.
Figure 11 : Annual rainfall vs. runoff of Satluj at Bhakra
Different types of regressions are tried (Walpole and Myers, 2007) and a good fit is provided
by the following curve.
Runoff= 450*Rainfall^0.5 + 3500
Figure 12: Annual rainfall runoff regression plot with outlier omitted
5. Climate Effects
The historic and future rainfall data extracted from WorldClim.org for a sub-catchment of
Satluj is plotted in Figure 13.
Page 8
Figure 13 : Mean monthly rainfall data present and future series for Sukar.
It is obvious that this data does not depict any significant change in the mean monthly
precipitation values from 1960’s to 2080’s which is quite surprising.
Similar historic and future rainfall data extracted from WorldClim.org for 6 sub-catchments of
Satluj is reproduced in the figure below
Figure 14 : Mean monthly rainfall data present and future series for different sub-catchments
Page 9
The World-Clim temperature data show a steady increase in temperatures over the decades.
However, the IPCC projections are not so emphatic.
6. Results and Conclusions
The results of the above studies can be summarized as below:

• Long-term precipitation records do not show any obvious trend.
• The daily discharge of Satluj at Bhakra shows a pronounced downward trend.
• By 2100, the mean temperatures are expected to rise between 0.8 and 3.5 degrees C.
More studies needs to be done before any discharge series for Satluj at Bhakra dam in the year
2020, 2030, 2040 etc. are postulated. Some more studies that can be done:
• Annual rainfall and runoff regression studies of a few sub-catchments.

• Regression studies of catchment characteristics with observed runoff at various discharge
measurement gauges (Wurbs and James, 2002).
• Month-wise regression of rainfall with runoff for a few sub-catchments.
With the analyses presented in this report, the best option seems to be generation of flows from
regression equation developed between annual rainfall and runoff at Bhakra dam:
Runoff= 450*Rainfall^0.5 + 3500
Decade -> 2020-29 2030-39 2080-89
Mean Decadal Annual Precipitation 1515 1450 1460

Mean Decadal monthly Q (cusec) 21015 20635 20694
7. References
1. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (2000). IPCC, 2000-Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge

University Press, UK.
2. McKinney, W. (2013). Python for Data Analysis. O’Reilly Media, Inc., USA
3. Dalgaard, P. (2008). Introductory Statistics with R. Springer Science+Business Media,
New York, USA
4. Murrell, R. (2019). R Graphics. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton, USA.
5. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R. and Mays, L.W. (2013). Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill,
NY, USA.
6. Wurbs, R.A. and James, W.P. (2002). Water Resources Engineering. Prentice-Hall of
India, New Delhi
7. Walpole, R.E., Myers, R.H., Myers, S.L. and Ye, K. (2007). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. Pearson Education, N.J., USA.
Page 10
Study of Intra-model Uncertainty in Future Prediction of Temperature for

GCM models: ESM2G and ESM2M
Hazarika J.1, Sarma A. K.2
1
Silchar, India – 788010; Email: jayshree@civil.nits.ac.in
2
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, India
– 781039; Email: aks@iitg.ac.in
Abstract
In this study two models, viz. ESM2G and ESM2M have been used to understand the intra-
model uncertainty within these models while predicting future temperature series in a few IMD
stations in the northeastern region of India. Statistical downscaling software SDSM is used to
establish the relationship between temperature and these two GCMs, for representative
concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. These relationships are further used to generate
different possible scenarios (or ensembles) of synthetic daily weather series during simulation
(20 ensemble series) and prediction (50 ensemble series). Each individual ensemble series is
considered an equally possible climate projection. These future scenarios were generated for
average daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and average daily minimum temperature (Tmin)
after bias correction. Along with uncertainty analysis, Mann Kendall trend test was also
performed as it provides a better understanding of the significance of the variations between
the input data (observed data) and output data (predicted future data). The uncertainty analysis
shows that both for Tmax and Tmin variations within the results of individual models are less.
The percentage uncertainty for Tmax ranges from 0.9% to 1.2%, and that for Tmin ranges from
1.0% to 1.9%. This implies that the intra-model uncertainty is fairly small in the case of
temperature predictions and hence any projected ensemble series can be considered for future
projection as it is going to produce more or less similar results.
Keywords: Uncertainty, GCM, SDSM, Future prediction
1. Introduction
In climate change studies, the importance of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is well
known. Various statistical methods are used to establish relationships between meteorological
parameters such as temperature, precipitation, etc., and large-scale atmospheric variables of
these GCMs. These statistical relationships are then used to predict future plausible scenarios
of those meteorological parameters on a regional as well as global scale. However, there are a
number of uncertainties involved with these predictions due to assumptions in model equations,
model building, and other forms of incompleteness in conceptualizing the real system. Wilby
(2005) stated that it is important to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties in water
resource projections arising from the choice of model calibration period, model structure, and
Page 1
non-uniqueness of model parameter sets. Woldemeskel et al. (2016) have mentioned that there
are three main sources of uncertainty associated with GCMs in climate projections: model
structure, the emission scenarios and natural variability. Buytaert et al. (2009) found that GCM
model uncertainties in precipitation and evapotranspiration propagated through the
hydrological model and widely affected the future projection of stream flow, exhibiting diverse
results for different GCM model. The uncertainty results, however, were fairly consistent in
case of temperature. Najafi et al. (2011) and Jung et al. (2012) indicated the importance of
hydrologic model selection in climate change impact assessment as it largely contributes to
uncertainties in future projections. Researchers have also established that parameter uncertainty
is almost negligible in comparison to huge climate model uncertainty (Joseph et al., 2018). Gao
et al. (2019) have mentioned that uncertainty associated with GCM models is the largest
contributor of uncertainty in climate change impacted hydrological predictions. These model
uncertainties can arise in two forms: (i) inter-model uncertainty due to different realization of
different GCM models, and (ii) intra-model uncertainty due to different realization within the
same GCM. Usually, researchers go for multi-model projections and highlight the uncertainties
among the models (inter-model uncertainty). For this purpose, the best-fit output of all the
models under consideration is chosen and combined to arrive at the best possible projection.
Many researchers have emphasized on using multi-model climate projections and downscaling
approaches for better assessment of uncertainty (Jung et al., 2012; Chen et al., 2013; Kumar et
al., 2013; Chen et al., 2014; Najafi and Moradkhani, 2015; Neupane et al., 2015; You et al.,
2017; Shen et al., 2018). However, to understand the extent of the unreliability of a single
GCM, it is important to comprehend the variations in the results within the same model under
different scenarios, which is called as intra-model uncertainty.
In this study, two GCM models ESM2G and ESM2M were used for representative
concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, to understand the intra-model uncertainty.
Different possible scenarios (or ensembles) of synthetic daily weather series have been
generated during simulation (20 ensemble series) and prediction (50 ensemble series), using
SDSM software. Each individual ensemble member is considered as equally possible climate
projection. The extent to which these ensembles vary from each other depends on the
significance of the stochastic as well as the deterministic components of the regression model
Wilby and Dawson (2007). Unconditional or independent parameters like temperature,
humidity etc. produces ensembles with less variations. But, in case of conditional variables like
precipitation, evaporation, runoff etc, the difference among the ensemble members is large.
The future scenarios were generated for average daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and
average daily minimum temperature (Tmin) after bias correction. Along with uncertainty
analysis, Mann Kendall trend test was also performed as it provides a better understanding of
the significance of the variations between the input data (observed data) and output data
(predicted future data).
Page 2
2.1.1 Study area
Five Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) weather stations, namely Cherrapunjee, Imphal,
Shillong, Silchar, and Guwahati, were chosen for investigation of intra-model uncertainty in
future prediction of temperature. The region is located between longitudes 91.50E and 940E
and latitudes 24.50N and 26.20N. Brahmaputra Valley and Barak Valley are located on the
north and northeast sides of the area. The Patkai Bum and the Naga Hills in the east, and the
Eastern Himalayas in the north, all encircle the area. This region has a subtropical climate,
influenced by the northeast and southwest monsoons. The northeastern monsoon winds from
the Bay of Bengal hit these mountains, producing heavy rainfall in the valley. The elevation of
the stations under consideration ranges from 21 m to 1600 m, and the total annual rainfall
(averaged over 30 years) ranges from 1454.6 mm to 11759 mm. Tmax, the average daily
maximum temperature, ranges from 20.80 to 29.50 degrees Celsius, while Tmin, the average
daily minimum temperature, ranges from 12.90 to 20.20 degrees Celsius.
Observed daily datasets for temperature have been collected from the Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD) for the five stations. The observed data from January’1969 to January’2012
were provided. Data from 2001 to 2005, however could not be obtained. The GCM data were
obtained from the fifth phase (AR5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this analysis, RCP2.6 (low emission
scenario with radiative forcing of 2.6 Wm-2 by year 2100) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario
with radiative forcing 8.5 Wm-2 by year 2100) are taken into consideration. The study makes
use of the earth system models ESM2G (GFDL's Modular Ocean Model version 4.1) and
ESM2M (isopycnal model using the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics) from the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. These ESMs can simulate the dynamics of sea ice,
land, and icebergs and are based on a coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation model that
includes interaction biochemistry and the carbon cycle. Under the CMIP5 protocol, both ESMs
have simulated historical data up to 2005 and future scenario datasets from 2006 to 2100.
Page 3
2.2 Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) software for historical simulations and future
predictions
SDSM is a hybrid of multiple linear regression (MLR) and the stochastic weather generator
(SWG), developed by Wilby et al. (2002). In SDSM, at first, some suitable predictors from the
atmospheric predictors are selected through a multiple linear regression model, utilizing the
combination of the correlation matrix, partial correlation, P value, histograms, and scatter plots.
There are two types of optimization methods in SDSM: (1) ordinary least squares (OLS) and
(2) dual simplex (DS). The OLS produces comparable results with DS and is also faster than
DS (Huang et al., 2011). There are two kinds of sub-models in SDSM: conditional and
unconditional; any of them can be used according to the local-scale variables. The
unconditional sub-model is used for independent or unconditional variables such as
temperature. The conditional sub-model is used for variables such as precipitation and
evaporation (Wilby et al., 2002). Stages of the downscaling process using SDSM is explained
below:
(i) Screening of predictors: This is the first and the most influencing step of the
downscaling process, as it gives the insight to the decision on the appropriate predictor
selection. Most of the time, we tend to use the predictors with the greatest correlations
with the predictands; but we somehow ignore the inter-correlation among the predictors
which affects the regression process. Hence, in this study, a stepwise screening of
predictors is used, as proposed by Mahmood and Babel (2013). The procedure is
explained below:
Page 4
a. First, the correlation matrix between observed data (predictand) and all the predictors
(GCM data) is made and arranged in descending order of correlation coefficient. First
predictor with highest correlation is considered as the super-predictor (SP) and
correlation coefficient is super correlation coefficient. To find out the next best
predictor, the top 12 predictors with higher correlations are considered.
b. The absolute correlation coefficient between the predictor and predictand (R1), the
absolute correlation coefficient between individual predictors (R2), absolute partial
correlation (Pr), and P-value are obtained by regressing the remaining highly correlated
predictors individually in the presence of SP.
c. Then the predictors which have a P-value greater than 0.05 are removed to render the
results statistically significant and the predictors which are highly correlated (0.5 in this
study) are taken out in order to remove any multi-co-linearity. The correlation
coefficient up to 0.7 between two predictors is considered acceptable.
d. Next the percentage reduction in an absolute partial correlation (PRP) is calculated for
each predictor using the following equation.
𝑃𝑅𝑃 = (1)
e. The predictor which has a min PRP is selected as the second most suitable predictor
and is termed as second super-predictor.
f. The third, fourth, and following predictors can be obtained by repeating steps (b) to (e).
(ii) Calibration and Validation: Based on the availability, observed daily dataset 1971–
2000 is used for calibration. The models are developed individually for each of the
predictands (Tmax and Tmin) at each site. The unconditional sub-model is used for Tmax and
Tmin without any transformation for both ESM2G and ESM2M. Optimization of the best
fit is done by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. With the developed models, Tmax
and Tmin are simulated for 1971–2000 for validation using the ESM2G and ESM2M
predictors. A total of 20 ensembles are simulated.
(iii) Future projection: Based on the models developed after validation, future scenarios are
generated for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for Tmax and Tmin.
2.2.1 Bias correction
Major drawback of using these climate models is the biases involved in them. To reduce these
biases, corrections need to be done before utilizing the predicted temperature for impact
assessment studies. There are several bias correction methods that have been suggested for
correcting simulations (Watanabe et al., 2012; Mahmood and Babel, 2013). Here, following
equations have been used for bias correction (Mahmood and Babel, 2013).
𝑇 = 𝑇 − (𝑇 −𝑇 ) (2)
where, Tbc is bias corrected temperature series, Tds is downscaled temperature series from
SDSM, 𝑇 is mean of the observed temperature series, and 𝑇 is mean of downscaled
Page 5
temperature series for the calibration period, respectively.
2.2.2 Trend Analysis
To understand the trend of the parameters (Tmax and Tmin) over the observed and projected
period, trend analysis needs to be done. Various statistical test methods are available that can
detect the trend in a hydrological and hydrometeorological data series. These methods are
categorized as parametric and non-parametric tests. Parametric tests are used for independent
dataset that has a normal distribution, i.e. probability of occurrence of outliers is less. Non-
parametric tests represent monotonic linear dependence (Rossi et al., 1992; Davis, 2002) and
are better at tolerating the influence of the presence of outliers (Lanzante, 1996). Hence, these
types of tests are found to be suitable for trend analysis of hydrological time series.
Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) is the most widely used non-
parametric test for trend analysis of hydrological time series (Basistha et al., 2009; Longobardi
and Villani, 2009; Yang et al., 2012; Anghileri et al., 2014). MK trend test is not influenced by
the actual distribution of the data and hence is less sensitive to outliers. However, the original
MK test has some limitations. It requires the data series to be serially independent and no
autocorrelation should be present. To address this issue, pre-whitening of the data series needs
to be done to remove the serial correlation, before applying the MK test (Hamed and
Ramachandra Rao, 1998; Von Storch and Navarra, 2010). Hamed and Ramachandra Rao
(1998) proposed a modified version of MK test, which is applicable for autocorrelated data
series. This modified method incorporates a revised equation for variance of S i.e. V(S), where
S is the statistics of MK test, thus reducing the effect of autocorrelation on variance of S
statistics and can be applied for trend analysis of hydrological data series. The revised V(S)
value can be calculated as follows:
𝑉 ∗ (𝑆) = 𝑉(𝑆) ∗ (3)
where, ∗ represents correction due to autocorrelation in the time series. It can be calculated
empirically as,
∗ =1+ ( )( )
∑ (𝑛 − 𝑖)(𝑛 − 𝑖 − 1)(𝑛 − 𝑖 − 2)𝜌 (𝑖) (4)
Here, n is the number of data points (actual sample size), n* is the effective sample size and
ρS(i) is the autocorrelation function of the ranks of data points that can be calculated by taking
inverse of the following equation:
𝜌(𝑖) = 2 sin 𝜌 (𝑖) (5)
3.1 Historical simulations and future projections of ESM2G and ESM2M and their
uncertainty analysis
Page 6
Based on the models developed by SDSM software at each site, future scenarios were generated
for average daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and average daily minimum temperature (Tmin),
after bias correction. The line plots with uncertainty for observed (1971–2000) and projected
period (2006–2100) are shown in Figure 2, and 3 for Tmax and Tmin respectively, for RCP2.6
and RCP8.5 and for both ESM2G and ESM2M models.
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
(e) (f)
Page 7
(g) (h)
(i) (j)
Figure 2 Line plots with uncertainty of average daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for
observed (1971–2000) and projected period (2006–2100) for models ESM2G and ESM2M
(a) (b)
Page 8
(c) (d)
(e) (f)
(g) (h)
(i) (j)
Page 9
Figure 3 Line plots with uncertainty of average daily minimum temperature (Tmin) for
observed (1971–2000) and projected period (2006–2100) for models ESM2G and ESM2M
3.2 Comparison of different model projections and trend analysis
In the previous section, Figure2 and 3 show the time series plot of future projections for
observed and projected period. For better understanding of the variations in the projected
period, it was divided into three time slices: 2006-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Mean
values for each projected time slice is estimated and plotted for each station. Trend analysis
provides better understanding of the significance of the variations. In the present study, Mann
Kendall trend test has been used to perform trend analysis for all three parameters at every
station, for both observed and projected period.
Figure 4 shows the variations of average daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for the models
ESM2G (Figure 4(a), (b)) and ESM2M (Figure 4(c), (d)) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for the
three projected time slices. Increase in maximum temperature has been found for all the stations
in the projected period till the year 2100, as compared to the observed period with a highest
rise of about 0.5 degrees Celsius for ESM2G and 0.49 degrees Celsius for ESM2M. The MK
trend test (Table 1) suggests that all stations have non-significant increasing trend (decreasing
for Cherrapunjee) under RCP2.6 for model ESM2G, whereas all stations have significant
increasing trend (non-significant for Cherrapunjee) under RCP2.6 for model ESM2M. The
decreasing trend for Cherrapunjee in the projected period indicates that although the
temperature magnitude has increased, the rise is high during 2041-2070 after which it declines
in 2071-2100. However, all the stations have shown significant increasing trend under RCP8.5
for both the models.
ESM2G_tmax ESM2G_tmax
30
Change in temp. in deg C
0.6
Temp. in deg C
28 0.5
26 0.4
24 0.3
0.2
22
0.1
20 0
2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5
Cherrapunjee Imphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati CherrapunjeeImphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati
2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
(a) (b)
Page 10
ESM2M_tmax ESM2M_tmax
30
Temp in deg C
0.6

28 0.5
26 0.4
24 0.3
0.2
22 0.1
20 0
2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5
CherrapunjeeImphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati Cherrapunjee Imphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati
2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
(c) (d)
Figure 4 Average daily maximum temperature and change in average daily maximum
temperature w.r.t. observed mean in future projections (2006-2040), (2041-2070) and (2071-
2100)
Table 1 Mann Kendall trend test for average daily maximum temperature
Meteorological
Period Model Scenario Cherrapunjee Imphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati
Parameters
Tmax past observed ++ ++ ++ ++ +
projected RCP2.6 ESM2G - + + + +
ESM2M + ++ ++ ++ ++
RCP8.5 ESM2G ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
ESM2M ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
+ represents non- significant increasing trend (P>0.05)
− represents non- significant decreasing trend (P>0.05)
++ represents significant increasing trend at significance level of 0.05 (MK Z value > 1.96; P<0.05).
-- represents significant decreasing trend at significance level of 0.05 (MK Z value <- 1.96; P<0.05).
Figure 5 shows the variations of average daily minimum temperature (Tmin) for the models
ESM2G (Figure 5(a), (b)) and ESM2M (Figure 5(c), (d)) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for the
three projected time slices. Increase in minimum temperature has been found for all the stations
in the projected period till the year 2100, as compared to the observed period with a highest
rise of about 0.82 degrees Celsius for ESM2G and 0.83 degrees Celsius for ESM2M. However
mixed trends have been found for different stations in the projected period till the year 2100.
The MK trend test (Table 2) suggests that under RCP2.6 scenario, Cherrapunjee will have non-
significant increasing trend in minimum temperature, when projected for ESM2G model,
whereas ESM2M model suggests significant increasing trend under the same scenario. For
stations Imphal and Silchar, ESM2G model suggests significant increasing trend ESM2M gives
non-significant increasing trend, under RCP2.6. In case of Shillong and Guwahati, non-
significant decreasing trends have been found for ESM2G model, whereas significant
increasing trends have been found for ESM2M under RCP2.6. However, all the stations have
shown significant increasing trend under RCP8.5 for both the models.
Page 11
ESM2G_tmin ESM2G_tmin
22 1
Change in temp.in deg C

20 0.8
Temp. in deg C
18
0.6
16
14 0.4
12 0.2
10 0
2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5
CherrapunjeeImphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati CherrapunjeeImphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati
2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
(a) (b)
ESM2M_tmin ESM2M_tmin
22 1

20 0.8
Temp. in deg C
18 0.6
16
0.4
14
12 0.2
10 0
2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5 2.6 8.5
CherrapunjeeImphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati Cherrapunjee Imphal Shillong Silchar Guwahati
2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 2006-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
(c) (d)
Figure 5 Average daily minimum temperature and change in average daily minimum
temperature w.r.t. observed mean in future projections (2006-2040), (2041-2070) and (2071-
2100)
Table 2 Mann Kendall trend test for average daily minimum temperature
Meteorological
Parameters
Tmin past observed - + ++ + ++
projected RCP2.6 ESM2G + ++ - ++ -
ESM2M ++ + ++ + ++
RCP8.5 ESM2G ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
ESM2M ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
+ represents non- significant increasing trend (P>0.05)
− represents non- significant decreasing trend (P>0.05)
++ represents significant increasing trend at significance level of 0.05 (MK Z value > 1.96; P<0.05).
-- represents significant decreasing trend at significance level of 0.05 (MK Z value <- 1.96; P<0.05).
3.3 Uncertainty analysis of the downscaling process
Page 12
In this study, intra-model uncertainty has been assessed for all three parameters to understand
the underlying uncertainties of the downscaling process. Figure 2 and 3 present the line plot of
the observed as well as projected future series after bias correction and uncertainties associated
with the projections for ESM2G and ESM2M model for both RCPs. The size of the uncertainty
band indicates the maximum and minimum value of all possible ensemble series (synthetic
daily weather series) generated during simulation and prediction. In other words, it displays the
extent to which these ensembles vary from each other.
For both average daily maximum temperature (Figure 2) and average daily minimum
temperature (Figure 3), variations are less. To quantify the variations, percentage uncertainty
based on maximum-minimum range has been calculated. The percentage uncertainties for
average daily maximum temperature and average daily minimum temperature are tabulated
below in table 3 and 4, respectively. It was observed that the percentage uncertainty for
maximum temperature ranges from 0.9% to 1.2%, which can be considered as insignificant.
Similarly, for minimum temperature, the range is 1.0% - 1.9%.
Table 3 Percentage uncertainty in average daily maximum temperature (Tmax)

Meteorological
Parameters
Tmax projected RCP2.6 ESM2G 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9
ESM2M 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
RCP8.5 ESM2G 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
ESM2M 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
Table 4 Percentage uncertainty in average daily minimum temperature (Tmin)

Meteorological
Parameters
Tmin projected RCP2.6 ESM2G 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1
ESM2M 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.1
RCP8.5 ESM2G 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0
ESM2M 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0
4. Conclusions
The following conclusions are derived from the study:

(iv) The uncertainty analysis indicates that both for Tmax and Tmin, variations within the results
of individual models are less.
(v) The percentage uncertainty for Tmax ranges from 0.9% to 1.2%, and that for Tmin ranges
from 1.0% to 1.9%.
(vi) This implies that the intra-model uncertainty is relatively small in the case of temperature
predictions.
(vii) Hence, any projected ensemble series with fairly good correlation with temperature can
be considered for future projection.
Page 13
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) for providing the necessary data to conduct the present study.
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Estimation of Peak Flood Discharge for Daund-Kalaburagi Railway line

Doubling Project, Central Railway, Mumbai
C. Srishailam1, N Vivekanandan2, Annapurna Patra3, R.G. Patil4
1
Scientist-C, CW&PRS,Pune-24, , India; Email: srisaila2@rediffmail.com
2
Scientist-B, CW&PRS,Pune-24, , India; Email: anandaan@rediffmail.com
3
Scientist-C, CW&PRS,Pune-24, , India; Email: annapurna.p@cwprs.gov.in
4
Scientist-E, CW&PRS,Pune-24, , India; Email: rsrgp@rediffmail.com
Abstract
The development of civil structures such as culverts, bridges, barrages etc. have resulted in
constricted river section. These river sections may lead to upstream afflux and inundation of
upstream civil structures. Hence, hydrological study on estimation of flood is of prime
importance to quantify the flood and its impact. This paper presents a study on estimation of
peak flood discharge (PFD) for different return periods at various locations in Daund-
Kalaburagi Railway Line (DKRL) doubling project (225 km) that covers several railway
bridges (RB) viz., RB 538/1, RB 532/1 and RB 553/1 for retro-fitting of bridges.
The daily rainfall data of Afzalpur and Kalaburagi and Aland rain gauge sites are used for
rainfall analysis by adopting different statistical distributions. Root Mean Squared Error
(RMSE) test is used for evaluation of best fit distribution. The results are used to compute the
weighted rainfall using Theissen polygon method. Delineation of the catchments influenced
and extraction of physiographic characteristics of the respective catchments are carried out
with the aid of ArcGIS. With this information, the PFD at RB 538/1, RB 532/1 and RB 553/1
are computed by applying suitable rainfall-runoff model.
The study shows that the 25-year (yr), 50-yr, 75-yr and 100-yr return period estimated PFD at
RB 538/1 are 2156.20 m3/s, 2192.85 m3/s, 2197.42 m3/s, 2228.73 m3/s. Similarly, for RB
532/1, these are computed as 742.05 m3/s, 829.00 m3/s, 994.70 m3/s and 1073.39 m3/s. The
25-yr return period PFD at RB 553/1 is 103.69 m3/s while 113.18 m3/s for 50-yr, 118.54 m3/s
for 75-yr, 122.20 m3/s for 100-yr. The study shows that the results presented in the paper
could be used for carrying out the task related to the proposed DKRL of Central Railway,
Mumbai.
Keywords: Rainfall, EVA, Railway Bridge, Peak Flow Discharge, Synthetic Unit Hydro
Graph
1. Introduction
Design flood of specific return period is of utmost importance for planning and design of the
bridges (railway/ road) viz., waterway requirement, scour depth, fixing vertical clearance,
free board.( IRC SP-13, 1998; Durga Rao, 2017). This can be computed by suitable Rainfall
and Runoff (R-R) model.
Page 1
December 22 -24, 2022
The Daund-Kalaburagi line doubling project on CSMT Mumbai-Chennai route is one of the
important railway project taken by M/s Railway Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL), Central
Railway, Mumbai which may result in reduction of waterway. In this connection hydrology
study is referred to CWPRS to estimate the design discharge for the safety of the project.
Accordingly flood estimation study has been carried out by adopting hydrometeorological
approach. The index map of the study area is presented in Figure 1.
Methodology adopted in the present study is as follows;

i) Delineation of catchments/ tributaries of the study area and extraction of
physiographic characteristics.
ii) Conduct Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of rainfall by adopting suitable
probability distribution.
iii) Estimation of Peak flow Discharge (PFD) and derivation of flood hydrograph by
adopting suitable R-R model.
M/s RVNL proposed to extend the existing bridges (Table 1) for the new line of
Daund-Kalaburagi (225 km) line doubling project. The Railway Bridge (RB) No. 532/1 is
Page 2
December 22 -24, 2022
situated on Bennesirur Halla stream whereas the RB No. 553/1 is located on Hatkunda Nalla.
In addition, the RB No. 538/1, 538/2, 538/3, is located on Amarja river, which is about 21 km
downstream of Amarja multi-purpose dam. The Amarja river originates in Koralli,
Kalaburagi district, Karnataka and flows about 50 to 60 km and confluence with Bhima River
at Ganagapura village in Kalaburagi district. The Bennesirur Halla originates from south of
Jhalaki Khurd and cross the railway line and thereafter outflows into Garaganji Halla. The
Hatkund Nalla originates near Kodal Hengarga-Kalaburagi road line at south of Pattan village
and drains into Gobar tank after railway line crossing.
Table 1: Location of existing bridges in Daund-Kalaburagi line doubling

S. Bridge Between Location of bridge Details of Name of the
No. No. stations Latitude (N) Longitude (E) existing bridge stream
1 532/1 Kulali- 17 20′ 28.22″

o
76o 30′ 28.22″ 6 x 18.29 m steel Bennesirur
Gaudgaon grinder Halla
2 538/1 Gaudgaon- 17o 20′ 19.94″ 76o 33′ 35.35″ 3 x 6.10 m PSC Amarja river
Ganagapur slab
3 538/2 Road 5 x 18.29 m steel
grinder
4 538/3 10 x 9.14 m steel
grinder
5 553/1 Ganagapur- 17o 20′ 11.40″ 76o 42′ 05.45″ 4 x 6.10 m arch
Savalgi
The study area experiences rainfall moderate to low besides being quite capricious as
a result drought and scarcity conditions occur in the area quite frequently. The area presents a
gently rolling topography and exhibits an undulating topography with table lands
characteristics of Deccan traps in the north of the study area. The general slope of the study
area is towards south direction (CWC, 2017) Figure 2 shows the location map of the
2.1.1 Data used
For the present study, the rainfall data of Afzalpur (1970 to 2018), Aland (1970 to 2017)
and Kalaburagi (1970 to 2018) IMD rain-gauge stations were used. In addition, SRTM-DEM
data of the study region was downloaded from United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Portal and Survey of India (SoI) Toposheets (Nos. 56C/6, 56/7, 56C/10 and 56C/11) were
used for delineation of catchments and extraction of physiographic characteristics.

In the present study, the Annual 1-day Maximum Rainfall (AMR) series of IMD rain-
gauge stations viz. Afzalpur, Aland and Kalaburagi were extracted from the daily rainfall
data series and used for EVA. The time series plot of AMR is shown in Figure 3.
Page 3
December 22 -24, 2022
Figure 2: Location map of the study area
EVA of historical data on hydrometeorological parameter is widely used technique in

operational hydrology that finds ready use in the derivation of design parameters (design
flood) of water resources projects. The aim of EVA is to relate the magnitude and frequency
of occurrence of such events through the use of probability distributions. The three main
steps involved in EVA are as follows:
i) Selection of Annual Maximum Series (AMS) from the observed data.
ii) Fitting appropriate theoretical probability distribution to represent the sample
using Method of Moments (MoM).
iii) Use the fitted distribution to make statistical inferences about the underlying
population.
General Principles: A rational-theoretical analysis of extreme phenomena has led

researchers to identify the probability distributions viz., Extreme Value Type-I (EVI) (also
known as Gumbel), 2-parameter Log Normal (LN2) and Log Pearson Type-3 (LP3) are most
widely used for Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of rainfall and therefore used in the present
study. The detail theory can be found in (Bobee and Ashkar, 1991);Naghavi, Yu and Singh,
1993; Vivekanandan, 2017)
Interval Limits of the Estimated Result(ER)

The Lower and Upper Confidence Limits (LCL and UCL) of the estimated ER are
computed using normal approximation method, which is given as below:
LCL = ER-(1.96)SE and UCL=ER+(1.96)SE ... (1)
where SE is the standard error
Page 4
December 22 -24, 2022
450
Afzalpur Aland Kalburghi

400
350
1-day maximum rainfall (mm)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Period (Years)
Figure 3: Time series plots of annual 1-day maximum rainfall

EVA of Daily Rainfall
By applying the procedures of EVI, LN2 and LP3 distributions, EVA of rainfall of
Afzalpur, Aland and Kalaburagi was carried out by using AMR data. The EVA results are
presented in Tables 2 to 4 while the plots are presented in Figures 4 to 6.
Table 2: Estimated 1-day maximum rainfall (mm) with 95% confidence limits using EVI,
LN2 and LP3 distributions for Afzalpur
Return EVI LN2 LP3

Period Estimated Confidence limits Estimated Confidence limits Estimated Confidence limits
(year) rainfall Lower Upper rainfall Lower Upper rainfall Lower Upper
2 70.4 56.8 84.1 71.4 63.8 80.0 64.5 55.0 74.0
5 116.9 93.9 139.9 99.9 87.6 113.9 92.9 85.0 100.8
10 147.6 116.6 178.7 119.1 102.3 138.7 120.5 112.5 128.5
20 177.1 137.9 216.3 137.7 115.8 163.7 155.7 135.5 175.9
25 186.5 144.6 228.3 143.6 120.0 171.9 169.0 145.0 193.0
50 215.3 165.2 265.4 162.1 132.8 197.8 217.8 175.0 260.6
75 232.1 177.1 287.0 172.9 140.2 213.3 252.7 195.3 310.9
100 243.9 185.6 302.3 180.7 145.4 224.5 280.9 205.0 356.8
200 272.4 205.8 339.1 199.6 157.9 252.3 362.4 235.0 489.8
500 310.0 232.4 387.7 225.2 174.3 290.8 508.8 290.0 727.6
1000 338.5 252.5 424.4 245.0 186.8 321.3 658.9 340.0 977.8
Page 5
December 22 -24, 2022
LN2 and LP3 distributions for Aland
Return EVI LN2 LP3

2 78.1 68.5 87.6 76.9 67.8 87.2 77.9 68.0 89.3
5 109.5 93.4 125.6 110.4 95.4 127.8 110.8 96.3 127.4
10 130.3 108.6 152.0 133.5 112.6 158.2 132.2 112.8 154.9
20 150.3 122.8 177.7 156.1 128.7 189.3 152.3 125.9 184.4
25 156.6 127.3 185.8 163.3 133.7 199.5 158.7 129.5 194.5
50 176.1 141.1 211.1 186.1 149.1 232.3 178.0 139.0 228.0
75 187.4 149.0 225.8 199.6 158.0 252.2 189.1 143.5 249.2
100 195.4 154.7 236.2 209.3 164.3 266.6 197.0 146.4 265.0
200 214.7 168.2 261.3 233.0 179.4 302.6 215.8 152.2 305.9
500 240.2 185.9 294.4 265.4 199.5 353.0 240.4 157.7 366.5
1000 259.4 199.3 319.5 290.8 214.9 393.4 259.0 160.7 417.7
LN2 and LP3 distributions for Kalaburagi
Return EVI LN2 LP3

2 78.0 72.1 83.9 78.7 72.6 85.3 79.5 72.8 86.8
5 97.7 87.7 107.7 99.5 90.6 109.3 99.8 91.3 109.0
10 110.7 97.3 124.2 112.5 100.9 125.5 111.7 101.1 123.5
20 123.2 106.3 140.2 124.6 110.1 141.0 122.3 108.5 137.9
25 127.2 109.1 145.3 128.3 112.9 145.9 125.5 110.4 142.6
50 139.4 117.7 161.1 139.6 121.1 161.0 135.0 115.5 157.8
75 146.5 122.7 170.3 146.1 125.8 169.8 140.3 117.9 166.9
100 151.5 126.3 176.8 150.7 129.0 176.0 143.9 119.4 173.5
200 163.6 134.8 192.5 161.6 136.6 191.0 152.4 122.3 190.0
500 179.6 146.0 213.2 175.8 146.4 211.1 163.1 125.0 212.8
1000 191.6 154.4 228.8 186.5 153.7 226.4 170.9 126.4 231.1
Page 6
December 22 -24, 2022
450 350
Upper confidence limit Observed Upper confidence limit Observed
EVI Lower confidence limit LN2 Lower confidence limit
400
300
350
a b
250

300
200
250
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return period (year) Return period (year)
1000
Upper confidence limit Observed
LP3 Lower confidence limit
c
800
600
400
200
0
1 10 100 1000
Return period (year)
Figure 4: Estimated 1-day maximum rainfall with 95% confidence limits using
(a)EV-I(b) LN2 (C) LP3 LP3 distribution and observed data for Afzalpur
Page 7
December 22 -24, 2022
350 400
Upper confidence limit Observed Upper confidence limit Observed
EVI Lower confidence limit a 350
LN2 Lower confidence limit b
300
300
250

250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50 50
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
450
400
LP3 Lower confidence limit c
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 10 100 1000
Figure 5: Estimated 1-day maximum rainfall with 95% confidence limits using (a) EV-I
(b) LN2 (C) LP3 distribution and observed data for Aland
Page 8
December 22 -24, 2022
250
250
225
EVI Lower confidence limit
a 225
LN2 Lower confidence limit
b
200
200
175
175

150 150
125 125
100 100
75 75
50 50
25 25
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
250
LP3 Lower confidence limit
225
200
c
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
1 10 100 1000
Figure 6: Estimated 1-day maximum rainfall with 95% confidence limits using (a)EV-I
(b) LN2 (C) LP3 distribution and observed data for Kalaburagi
2.2.2 Selection of Probability Distribution

The selection of a suitable distribution amongst EVI, LN2 and LP3 probability
distributions adopted in EVA of rainfall was evaluated by using Root Mean Squared Error
(RMSE), which is given as below:
 
1/ 2
1 N 2
RMSE    x i  x i*  … (2)
 N i 1 
Where, xi is the observed AMR of ith sample, x i* is the estimated AMR of ith sample
and N is the sample size. The distribution with minimum RMSE is considered as better suited
Page 9
December 22 -24, 2022
for estimation of extreme rainfall. The RMSE values of EVI, LN2 and LP3 distributions for
Afzalpur, Aland and Kalaburagi sites were computed by using Eq. (2) and are presented in
Table 5.
From Table 5, LP3 is considered as a better suited distribution for estimation of
extreme rainfall for the study area. Hence, the design rainfall depth obtained from LP3
distribution was used for further analysis in this paper.
Table 5: RMSE values given by EVI, LN2 and LP3 distributions

Rain-gauge station RMSE (mm)
EVI LN2 LP3
Afzalpur 42.692 45.745 29.124
Aland 13.367 13.796 13.272
Kalaburagi 6.888 6.788 5.323
2.2.3 Estimation of Mean Catchment Rainfall

The mean catchment rainfall/ precipitation are computed by adopting Theissen
polygon method. The locations of the IMD rain-gauge stations with respect to the
stream/river catchments were projected in the GIS environment and Theissen Polygons for
the rain-gauges for each of the catchments (i.e., railway bridge stream) were developed. By
using the Theissen weights, the weighted rainfall at different section of Railway Bridges were
estimated and are given in Table 6.
Table 6: Weights of rain-gauges adopting Theissen polygons for Railway Bridges catchment
Section of Theissen weight of rain-gauge station Weighted rainfall (mm)
Railway Bridge Afzalpur Aland Kalaburagi 25-yr 50-yr 75-yr 100-yr
RB 532/1 0.458 0.542 ---- 163.4 196.2 218.3 235.4
catchment
RB 538 0.001 0.969 0.030 157.7 176.8 187.7 195.5
catchment
RB 553/1 ---- ---- 1.000 125.5 135.0 140.3 143.9
catchment
2.2.4 Approaches for Estimation of Peak Flood Discharge (PFD)

The steps involved in estimation of PFD consists of (i) delineation of catchments, (ii)
determination of catchment (topographic) characteristics and (iii) estimation of PFD by
adopting suitable R-R model.
For the present study, 30 m grid SRTM-DEM from USGS has been downloaded and
the downloaded DEM as well as SoI Toposheets were processed in ArcGIS environment.
For this, various steps viz., (i) filling the DEM, (ii) deriving the stream flow network, (iii)
flow accumulation computations and (iv) delineate the designated sub-catchments of streams
in study area were adopted for processing the downloaded DEM. From above, the derived
Page 10
December 22 -24, 2022
catchment area of Bennesirur Halla up to railway bridge RB 532/1, Amarja river including its
tributaries upto railway bridge RB 538 and Hatkund Nalla upto railway bridge RB 553/1 are
104.16 km2, 976.47 km2 and 12.67 km2 respectively (as shown in Figures 7). In present
study, the flood estimation is carried out by adopting rational formula for small catchments
(catchment area less than 25 km2) based on RSDO Report RBF-16, whereas Synthetic Unit
Hydrograph (SUH) based on CWC Flood Estimation for Subzone 3(h) for the study region
for other than small catchments.
b
a
Figure 7: Catchment area map of (a) Bennesirur Halla up to Railway Bridge RB 532/1(b)
Amarja River up to Railway Bridge RB 538 (c) Hatkunda Nalla up to Railway Bridge RB
553/1
Page 11
December 22 -24, 2022
A. Flood Estimation by Rational Formula as per RSDO Report RBF-16

The PFD for different return periods are computed by using rational formula, i.e
QT = 0.278CITA … (3)
where, QT is peak flood discharge (m3/s) for given return period (T), C is runoff
coefficient, IT is rainfall intensity (mm/hr) for a given return period (T) and A is catchment
area (km2). (RSDO, 1990). By considering soil type and cover and location of the study area
(Block cotton soil/ plain areas), the value of C is considered as 0.742, 0.753, 0.759, 0.763 for
25-yr, 50-yr, 75-yr and 100-yr respectively, for computing the flood discharge.
B. Flood Estimation by Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Method

A Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) relates the parameters of a Unit Hydrograph
(UH) model to watershed characteristics and thus defined by set of parametric equations that
describes the basin response processes. In the present study, the flood estimation (CWC,
2000) at three main locations on railway line doubling, viz., (i) Bennesirur Halla up to
railway bridge RB 532/1, (ii) Amarja river including its tributaries upto railway bridge RB
538 and (iii) Hatkund Nalla upto railway bridge RB 553/1 and also Amarja river upto Amarja
dam for different return periods have been carried out by adopting suitable R-R model. The
derived flood hydrographs are shown in Figures 8. By adopting the procedures as per
(RDSO,1990) Report RBF-16, the 25-yr, 50-yr, 75-yr and 100-yr return period PFDs for
Hatkund Nalla at Railway Bridge RB 553/1 was estimated as 103.69 m3/s, 113.18 m3/s,
118.54 m3/s and 122.20 m3/s respectively.
1200 2800
25-yr Flood Hydrograph 25-yr Flood Hydrograph

2400
1000
2000
800
1600
Discharge (cum/s)
Discharge (cum/s)
600
1200
400
800
200
400
0 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
Time (Hours) Time (Hours)
Figure 8(a): Flood hydrograph of Bennesirur Figure 8(b): Flood hydrograph of Amarja river
Halla up to Railway Bridge RB 532/1 upto Amarja dam
Page 12
December 22 -24, 2022
2500
25-yr Flood Hydrograph

2000
1500
Discharge (cum/s)
1000
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Time (Hours)
Figure 8 (c): Flood hydrograph of Bennesirur Halla up to Railway Bridge RB 538
3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

In this hydrometeorological studies, the flood estimation at three main locations on
Daund-Kalaburagi line doubling project on CSMT Mumbai-Chennai railway route, viz., (i)
Bennesirur Halla up to Railway Bridge RB 532/1, (ii) Amarja river (including its tributaries)
upto Railway Bridge RB 538 and (iii) Hatkund Nalla upto Railway Bridge RB 553/1 was
under taken. Based on the results of data analysis, the following observations were drawn
from the study.
I. For Afzalpur, the 25-yr, 50-yr, 75-yr and 100-yr return period design rainfall depth
was estimated as 169.0 mm, 217.8 mm, 252.7 mm and 280.9 mm respectively,
whereas the design rainfall depth for Aland was computed as 158.7 mm, 178.0 mm,
189.1 mm and 197 mm respectively. For Kalaburagi, the 25-yr, 50-yr, 75-yr and 100-
Page 13
December 22 -24, 2022
yr return period rainfall depth was computed as 125.5 mm, 135.0 mm, 140.3 mm and
143.9 mm respectively.
II. By using the Theissen weights of three rain-gauge stations, the weighted rainfall for
different return periods, say, 25-yr, 50-yr 75-yr and 100-yr at three main locations of
Daund-Kalaburagi line doubling project were computed and used for estimation of
PFD.
.
4.0 CONCLUSIONS
The design flood is used for estimation of design parameters of the bridges (railway/
road). The conclusions drawn from the flood estimation studies carried out for the proposed
Daund-Kalaburagi line doubling project are summarized and also presented:
 LP3 distribution was chosen for estimation of design rainfall depth for the study
area.
 By using the Theissen weights, the weighted rainfall at different sections of
railway bridges were estimated. By using the design rainfall depth values, the
PFD for different return periods at various sections on Daund-Kalaburagi line
doubling are given as below:
Sl. Section Estimated PFD (m3/s)
No. 25-year 50-year 75-year 100-year
1 Bennesirur Halla up to 742.05 892.99 994.70 1073.39
Railway Bridge RB 532/1
2 Amarja river upto Railway 2156.20 2192.85 2197.42 2228.73
Bridge RB 538
3 Hatkunda stream at 103.69 113.18 118.54 122.20
Railway Bridge RB553/1
It is suggested that the results of PFD using rational formula and SUH method
presented in the study could be used for carrying out the task related to the proposed Daund-
Kalaburagi line doubling project.
Acknowledgements
The authors express their gratitude to Dr. R. S. Kankara, Director, CWPRS for constant
encouragement and valuable suggestions during the preparation of this manuscript. Authors
are also grateful to M/s RVNL, Mumbai for providing the necessary support during the study.
References
Bobee, B., and Ashkar, F. (1991). The Gamma Family and Derived Distributions Applied in
Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, USA
CWC (2000). Flood Estimation Report for Krishna and Pennar Subzone-3(h) (Revised), Design
Office Report No. KP-3(h)/R-5/45/2000, Central Water Commission, New Delhi
Page 14
December 22 -24, 2022
CWC (2017) Report on Afzalpur taluk aquifer maps and management plan, Gulbarga district,
karnataka state, Pg2
Duraga Rao, K.H.V (2017). Flash flood disaster threat to Indian rail bridges: a spatial simulation
study of Machak River flood, Madhya Pradesh Current Science 112(5):1028-1033
IRC SP-13 (1998): Guidelines for the Design of Small Bridges and Culverts, Indian Road Congress,
New Delhi.
Naghavi, B., Yu, F.X., and Singh, V.P. (1993). Comparative Evaluation of Frequency Distributionsfor
Louisiana Extreme Rainfall, Water Resources Bulletin, 29(2): 211-219.
RSDO (1990): Flood Estimation Methods for Catchments less than 25 km2 in Area, Report No. RBF-
16, Research Design and Standards Organization (RSDO), Lucknow.
Vivekanandan, N. (2016). Intercomparison of Probability Distributions for Extreme Value Analysis
of Rainfall under Missing Data Scenario Development in Earth Science,Volume 4
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27 th International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources, Environmental

Heavy metal contamination in agricultural region of Yamuna-Hindon

2. Materials and Methods

Figure 1: Index map of study area showing the sampling locations.

3. Results and Discussions

3.1. Spatial Variation among Trace Metals

Geogenic sources of Mn generally comprise of minerals such as manganite, pyrolusite,

Critical Appraisal of Different Approaches to Model Hydrodynamic

Keywords: River Confluence, Flow Separation, Stage Discharge Relationship, Confluence

Possible location of Zone of

Figure 1 Characteristics of flow at channel confluence

2. Different approaches for modelling river confluence

2.1 Experimental Modelling

Main Channel Branch Channel Post Confluence

L-Length, B-Width, H-Depth of the channel; * Field Experiment

2.2 Numerical Modelling

An upstream end of the junction

Analytical solutions hold well

The established new hybrid

Some geometrical adjustments

al., (2015) new features of the flow

For non-rectangular shapes, a

Standard k– Epsilon The realizable k–ε model is

2.3 ANN Modelling

3.1 Experimental Modelling

Table 3 Summary of previous experimental work on River confluence

Author Geometry Laboratory Parameters Significant Findings

The fixed A different flow Information provided with 3-D

Baranya et al. (2017) conducted a field experiment in China to investigate of hydrodynamic

3.2 Numerical Modelling

3.2.1 Boundary conditions

Figure 3 General boundary condition considered for the river confluence

3.2.2 Model Validation

Best, J. L. (1986). The morphology of river channel confluences. Progress in Physical

Hydrodynamic Performance of Raceway Pond using k- Turbulence Model

Rozy Kumari1, Sweety Rajput2 and Dr. B.S Das3

2. Materials and Methods

2.1 Modelling using ANSYS Fluent

1. Boundary condition used in the present study is

Figure 1 Schematic diagram of Raceway Pond using ANSYS Fluent

Figure 2 Flow chart of Ansys fluent

where the component 𝐸𝑖𝑗 (s-1) denotes the rate of deformation.

3. Results and Discussions

3.1 Effect of velocity distribution on aspect ratio

3.2 Effect of pressure distribution on various aspect ratio

3.3 Effect of Eddy viscosity on various aspect ratio

The following conclusions are obtained from present study:

R, Hreiz., B, Sialve., J, Morchain., R, Escudie., J, P. Steyer., P, Guiraud. (2014). Experimental and

Hydraulic Conductivity of Porous Media: Influence

Keywords: Angularity, Hydraulic Conductivity, Porosity, Permeameter

1.1 Established Empirical Formulae:

respectively, are finer.

1.1.1 Hazen’s formula:

2. Materials and Methodology

Figure 1 Grain size distribution curve

Table 1 Parameters obtained from grain size distribution curve

2 Marble Chips 0.92 1.12 1.24 1.37 1.6 1.739 0.439

2.1 Angularity test:

3. Results and Discussion

Dolomite Marble chips River gravel Sand Crushed quartzite

Figure 2 Curve of log η vs log dg

Figure 3 Curve of Friction Factor vs Reynold’s Number for Dolomite

Figure 4 Curve of Friction Factor vs Reynolds Number for Marble Chips

Figure 5 Curve of Friction Factor vs Reynolds Number for River Gravel