DIRE DAWA UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRAGUATE STUDIES

DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (IT)
Project Title: Analyzing and Predicting COVID-19 pandemic using
Machine Learning in case Dire Dawa City Administration
Prepared by
Meseret Hirpassa SGS/0052/12
Yonas Beyane SGS/0045/12
Yirga Muluneh SGS/0055/12
Aklilu Achiso SGS/0050/12
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Presentation Outline
• Introduction
❖Background of the study
❖Statement of the problem
❖Research questions
❖Objectives of the study
• Literature Review
• Approach /Methods and Procedure
• Open Source Software Data Analysis tool

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1. Introduction
1.1. Background of the study
Dire Dawa
• Amharic: ድሬ ዳዋ
• Afan Oromo: Dirre Dhawaa, lit. "Place of Remedy“
• Somali: Diri Dhaba, meaning "where Dir hit his spear into the
ground" or "The true Dir")
• is a city in eastern Ethiopia
• one of two chartered cities in Ethiopia (the other being Addis
Ababa, the capital).
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Cont.
Based on the 2007 Census conducted by the Central Statistical
Agency of Ethiopia (CSA)
▪ Dire Dawa had a population of 341,834, of whom 171,461 were
men and 170,461 women. 233,224 or 68.23% of the population
were urban inhabitants.
▪ The projection made in 2020 shows the number of populations
of Dire Dawa is expected more than 600,000 were 67% of the
population live in urban and the rest in rural.

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Cont.
Dire Dawa Administration Health Bureau is a Health institution who
is responsible for insuring the Health of the community.
There are
✓ 2 General Hospitals
✓ 15 Health Centers
✓ 34 Health posts and
✓ 22 Private Clinics who are giving health care services in the
Administration.
✓ Moreover, there are 9 Operational Woreda in which 5 are
urban and 4 are rural. Stay Safe!
Introduction
The pandemic / COVID-19
- An outbreak caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARSCoV-2)
- has been spreading rapidly across the world since December
2019, from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
- Covered almost all countries
- Since March 2020 WHO declared it as pandemic disease
- Ministry of Health in general and Dire Dawa Administration
Health Bureau in particular have taken different strategies
Lockdown, preparing Laboratory Centers, educating people
etc. are some of the strategies
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Vision and Mission
As far as the Health sector is concerned the ministry of Health in
Ethiopia has the following vision and mission:
1.2.1. Vision
To see healthy, productive and prosperous Ethiopians.
1.2.2. Mission
"To promote health and wellbeing of Ethiopians through providing
and regulating a comprehensive package of promotive, preventive,
curative and rehabilitative health services of the highest possible
quality in an equitable manner."

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1.3. Statement of the problem
▪ The healthcare industry is a vast industry that requires real time
collection and processing of medical data
▪ Moreover, at the core of this industry lies the problem of data handling
which requires real time prediction and dissemination of information
to practitioners for quick medical attention.
▪ As far as the pandemic is concerned by now Ethiopia has a confirmed
case of 100,727 in which 1,545 were died. Moreover, Dire Dawa
Administration has a confirmed case of 2,765 in which 24 were died.
▪ There should be some mechanism to analyze and predict the time series
data for COVID-19 to solve those healthcare industry challenges using
some machine learning algorithms
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1.4. Motivation
The main motivation of the researchers
▪ COVID-19 is the crucial issue in our world today so analyzing and
forecasting the pandemic is very important.
▪ using COVID-19 data for analysis and prediction will help the City
Administration in minimizing the pandemic in order the outcome
not to be catastrophic
▪ Since there is no similar research done using machine Learning
Algorithms

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1.5. Research Questions
In this thesis, the researchers will try to answer the following
research questions:
▪ Which Machine Learning algorithm will better predict COVID-
19 pandemic in case of Dire Dawa City Administration?
▪ Which operational woreda will have the highest confirmed cases
in the coming 20 days?
▪ How a machine learning algorithm can be used for analyzing
and predicting COVID-19 pandemic for healthcare Sector?

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1.6. Objectives of the study
1.6.1. General Objective
The primary object of the study will be to Analyze and Predict COVID-19
Pandemic in Dire Dawa City Administration.
1.6.2. Specific Objectives
The following are some of the specific objectives of the researchers:
• Analyzing the number of positive cases, the number of deaths,
number of recoveries and active cases specifically in Dire Dawa City
Administration.
• Identifying the better model in predicting the COVID-19
pandemic.
• Putting some recommendation on how to apply the Machine
Learning Algorithms in controlling the spread of the pandemic from the
predicted and analyzed data. Stay Safe!
1.7. Stakeholders, Contribution and benefit
❑ This research will benefit specifically the health sector industry
and contribute for health sector data manager professional in
analyzing and predicting COVID-19 pandemic using machine
learning.
❑ The main stakeholders of this studies will be the community at
large, the health facilities such as hospitals, health centers, clinics
and Non-Governmental Organization (NGO’s).

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1.8. Significance of the study / expected benefits /Scope
❑ The scope of this research will be predicting or Forecasting future
20 days COVID-19 confirmed cases in Dire Dawa City
Administration and analyzing the COVID-19 cases for the
operational woredas.
❑ The significance of this study will be to minimize the spread of
the pandemic through the analysis and prediction obtained from the
result.
❑ The expected benefit from this study will be having additional
tool for analyzing and predicting COVID-19 pandemic like
Machine Learning Algorithms.
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1.9. Limitation of the Study
• As far as researches or Projects are concerned there are limitations
that limit the researchers in order not to cover certain areas due to
financial or data preparation problems.
• Moreover, in this study the researchers will not include the data
analysis and predictions of the other regions in Ethiopia these is
due to getting the exact time series data in the rest of the region.

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 2. Review of related work
Reference Aim or Objective Selected Models Main Results/Findings
/Algorithms
[1] Sujath, R., Chatterjee, J.M. & Hassanien, • Forecasting the ▪ linear o MLP method is giving
A.E. A machine learning forecasting model for spread of regression (LR) good prediction
COVID-19 pandemic in India. Stoch Environ COVID-19 ▪ Multilayer results than that of
Res Risk Assess 34, 959–972 (2020). Perceptron the LR method
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01827-8 (MLP) and
▪ Vector
Autoregression
[2] Iwendi, C., Bashir, A. K., Peshkar, A., • efficient and ▪ Random Forest o The model has an
Sujatha, R., Chatterjee, J. M., Pasupuleti, S., quick model boosted accuracy of 94% and a
Mishra, R., Pillai, S., & Jo, O. (2020). COVID-19 prediction of the by the F1 Score of 0.86 on
Patient Health Prediction Using Boosted possible outcome AdaBoost the
Random Forest Algorithm. Frontiers in public of an infected algorithm dataset used
health, 8, 357. patient for
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00357 appropriate
treatment using
AI techniques
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 Cont.
Reference Aim or Selected Models /Algorithms Main Results/Findings
Objective
[3] Rizk-Allah RM, Hassanien AE (2020) • Forecasting ▪ Interior Search algorithm o ISACL-MFNN
COVID-19 forecasting based on an confirmed (ISA) based on Chaotic provides promising
improved interior search algorithm and cases for the Learning (CL) performance
multi-layer feed forward neural network. upcoming ▪ Multi-layer Feed-forward
arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.05960. days Neural Network (MFNN)

[4] F. Rustam et al., "COVID-19 Future • capability of ▪ Linear regression (LR) o ES performs best
Forecasting Using Supervised Machine ML models ▪ Least Absolute Shrinkage among all the used
Learning Models," in IEEE Access, vol. 8, to forecast and Selection Operator models followed by LR
pp. 101489-101499, 2020, the number (LASSO) and LASSO
doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2997311. of upcoming ▪ Support Vector Machine
patients (SVM), and
affected by ▪ Exponential Smoothing
COVID-19 (ES)

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3. Approach/Method and Procedure
• In order to answer the research questions stated above the
researcher will use different methods listed below:
3.1. Related Literature
• In this study different previously done research like journals
articles, conference papers and books will be reviewed to show the
gaps.
3.2. Data Set Preparation
• The data set for the research will be prepared from Dire Dawa City
Administration Health Bureau who have the authority regarding
COVID-19 data.
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Cont.
3.3. Implementation tools /materials
• Anaconda python latest (stable) version 3.7 will be used as an
implementation tools and it will run on a windows platform.
• In addition, the researchers will include the following packages and
libraries: Datetime, NumPy, Pandas, SciPy, Scikit Learn, and Matplotlib
3.4. Analysis and Prediction Model or Algorithms
• In this study, the researchers will use two machine learning algorithms
Linear Regression Model with Polynomial features and Support
Vector Machin (SVM) Model.
• The researchers select these two models are both models are supervised
Machine Learning Algorithms and the other thing is that both model can
be applied in predicting time series data.
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Open Source Software for data Analysis

The researchers tried to analyze the result using

❑ District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) open source
software customized for trucking COVID-19 pandemic by ministry
of Health, Ethiopia

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Open Source Software for data Analysis

Fig 5.1: Customized Ethiopia COVID-19 Surveillance Open Source Software

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Cont.

Fig 5.2: List of Apps that are used in COVID-19 Surveillance System
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Cont.

Fig 5.3: COVID-19 Laboratory follow up Dashboard

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Cont.

Fig 5.4: Dire Dawa COVID-19 Positive cases for last week by Operational Woreda
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Cont.

Fig 5.5: Two Month COVID-19 Positive-Negative Cases using Operational Woreda
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THANK YOU

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