Seismic Hazard in

Indonesia
Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi
PhD Candidate
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Outline
• Why seismic hazard assessment is important?
• Seismicity in Indonesia.
• Current status of seismic hazard assessment in Indonesia.
• Questions need to be addressed by seismologists and earthquake
engineers.
• Conclusions.
Why seismic hazard assessment is
important?
• Resource allocations:
• How strong should a structure earthquake-resisting
system be?
• How much should development in high-hazard
locations be restricted?
• How much should an earthquake engineering policy
cost?
• Communication and planing:
• Uses scenarios to plan recovery factors.
• Build political will for action.
• Encourage citizen awareness.
• Research studies:
• Calculation of scenarios can be used for detailed
scientific inquiries.
• Physics-based seismic hazard assessment.

(Stein & Stein, 2012)

Four essential steps

Identification Statistics

Hazard
Ground-motion calculation
prediction

(Reiter, 1990)
Seismic recording

(Mai, 2009) (Mai, 2009)

Seismicity in Indonesia
Seismicity in Indonesia

Irsyam et al. (2020)

Seismicity in Indonesia

BMKG (2022)
Seismicity in Indonesia

Nugraha et al. (2019)

Current status of seismic hazard assessment
in Indonesia
Current status of seismic hazard
assessment in Indonesia

Irsyam et al. (2020)

Current status of seismic hazard
assessment in Indonesia

Irsyam et al. (2020)

Problems and Questions need to be
addressed by seismologists and earthquake
engineers.
Problems
• Indonesia has no ground motion models.
• Incomplete earthquake catalogue.
• Lacks of historical earthquake catalogue.
• Many unmapped faults.
• Necessity to assess the maximum possible earthquake magnitude.
• Lacks of insitu site-specific conditions.
Seismic Hazard Assessment Calculations
• Earthquake catalog:
• Kinematic source simulations
• Pseudo-dynamic simulations
• Fully dynamic simulations
• Seismic cycle
• High-frequency ground-motion modeling:
• Machine learning
• Medium heterogeneity
• Ground motion models
• Site specific ground motion models
• Seismic hazard assessment (SHA):
• Probabilistic SHA
• Deterministic SHA
• Time-dependent probabilistic SHA
Lacks of recordings at near field region

(Baker et al. 2021)

(EERI et al. 2021)
Low-Resolution Hazard Map

(Mai et al. 2021)

Ground shaking simulations 2D

(Cipta et al. 2021)

Ground shaking simulations 3D

(Pitarka et al. 2019)

Ground shaking simulations 3D

(Taufiqurahman et al. 2022)

Simulated Seismic Waveforms
Response History Analysis
Response History Analysis

Deformed Shape of a Building under 1994 Frame Bending Moment Diagram of a Building
Northridge Earthquake under 1994 Northridge Earthquake
Conclusions
• Indonesia is located in high seismic hazard in general.
• Updated seismic hazard map provides more reliable information for
earthquake engineers.
• No ground motion models (GMMs) specific for Indonesia.
• The available GMMs over- or underestimates ground shaking at certain
area.
• Physics-based GMMs can be used for estimating possible maximum
earthquake magnitude.
• Determining the appropriate GMMs and response spectral may limit the
economical and social loss during an earthquake.
Thank you!