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Disease forecasting

Presentation · May 2013

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1248.5368

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 Disease Forecasting
 Forecasting of plant diseases means predicting for the occurrence of plant

disease in a specified area ahead of time, so that suitable control measures

can be undertaken in advance to avoid losses.

 Disease forecasts are predictions of probable outbreaks or increase in

intensity of disease.

 It is used as an aid to the timely application of chemicals.

 Among the first spray warning services to be established for growers, were

the grapevine downy mildew forecasting schemes in France, Germany and

Italy in the 1920s.

 Components for successful Disease Development

Three important components of plant

disease :
 Susceptible host
 Virulent pathogen
 Favorable environment

For disease to occur all three of these must

be present.

No Disease
No Disease Severe Disease
 Information’s Needed for Disease Forecasting

Prevalence of susceptible varieties in the given locality

Host Factors

Response of host at different stages of the growth to the activity of pathogen

Density and distribution of the host in a given locality

Pathogen factors
Temperature
Amount of primary (initial) inoculum

Dispersal of inoculum

Spore germination Environmental Wind

Humidity
Infection factors velocity

Incubation period

Sporulation on the infected host Light

Re-dispersal / Dissemination of spores intensity

Inoculum potential and density in the seed, soil and air

 Methods of disease forecasting

• Presence of primary inoculum, its density and viability are determined in the
Forecasting based
air, soil or planting material.
on primary inoculums

• Weather conditions viz.,temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, light, wind

Forecasting based on
velocity , leaf wetness etc., during the crop season and during the inter crop
weather conditions
season are measured.

• Weather data of several years are collected and correlated with the intensity
Forecasting based on
of the diseases. The data are compared and then the forecasting of the disease
correlative information
is done.

• In some advanced countries forecasting of disease is made by the use of com

Use of computer
puters. This system gives the results quickly. One such computer based prog
for disease forecasting
rammes in the USA is known as‘Blitecast’ for potato late blight.
 Disease Forecasting Models/Networks

WISDOM (BLITECAST) Late blight on tomatoes & potatoes

TOMCAST Alternaria, (Septoria, anthracnose)

FAST Alternaria solani on tomatoes

EPIDEM Alternaria solani on tomatoes & potatoes

MELCAST Anthracnose, Gummy stem blight (Watermelons), Alternaria (Muskmelons )

Maryblight Fireblight on apples

EPICORN Southern corn leaf blight

EPIVEN Scab on apples

BLITECAST Disease Spectrum
Late blight of Potato and Tomato
 Phytophthora infestans biology
Environmental Conditions for Germination & Sporulation

 Disease development (growth and reproduction

of the pathogen) is favored by moderate
temperatures 15.6-26.6°C (60°-80°F) and wet
conditions.

 Sporangia can germinate within a few hours

after landing on potato or tomato foliage if free
moisture (e.g., dew, rainfall, prinkler irrigation,
fog) is present.
 Wallin’s Late blight Forecasting System

Model developer and citation

Wallin, J. R. 1951. Forecasting tomato and potato late blight in the
northcentral region (Abstr) Phytopathology 41: 37.

Sensor locations
Off-site, at regional weather stations.

Input variables Environmental: Hourly relative humidity and

temperature.

Calculated: Minimum and maximum temperature during periods of

relative humidity >= 90%. Number of hours of relative humidity >=
90%.
Prediction of the time of late blight onset
Wallin’s system
Late blight appears 7-14 days after accumulation of
18-20 “severity values” since emergence.

Temperature Hours with RH>90%

7.2 - 11.6 15 16-18 19-21 22-24 25+

11.7 - 15.0 12 13-15 16-18 19-21 22+
15.1 - 26.6 9 10-12 13-15 16-18 19+

Severity
values
0 1 2 3 4
 Hyre’s Late blight Forecasting System

Model developer and citation

Hyre, R. A. 1954. Progress in forecasting late blight of potato and tomato.
Plant Disease Reporter. 38: 245-253.

Sensor location
Off-site, at regional weather stations.

Input variablesEnvironmental: Daily rainfall, maximum and minimum

temperature.

Model validation
This model has been extensively evaluated.

Model implementation
This model has been implemented by growers in the northeastern United
States.
 Prediction of the time of late blight onset
Hyre’s system
Late blight appears 7-14 days after accumulation of
10 “rain favorable-days” since emergence.

“A rain-favorable day”
o Average Temp. in the o
25.5 C last five days 7.2 C
and
Rain quantity in the
30 mm
last five days
 Krause Late blight Forecasting Model
Model developer and citation
Krause, R. A., Massie, L. B., and Hyre, R. A. 1975. BLITECAST, a computerized
forecast of potato late blight. Plant Disease Reporter 59: 95-98.

Sensor location
In-field weather stations, sensors within the canopy.

Input variables
Environmental: Daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature

Calculated: Number of hours of relative humidity 90% or greater, maximum and

minimum temperature during periods of relative humidity 90% or greater.

Model description
These BLITECAST model is an integrated computerized version of both the Hyre
and the Wallin model.
Prediction of the subsequent development of late
blight and determining the need for spraying

No. rain-favorable days Severity values during the last 7 days

during the last 7 days
<3 3 4 5 6 >6

<4 N N W 7d 7d 5d
>4 N W 7d 5d 5d 5d

N No spray
Recommendation W late blight warning
for action 7d 7-day spraying schedule
5d 5-day spraying schedule
 TOMCAST
TOMato disease foreCASTing

 Purpose: Assist processing tomato growers with fungicide

application timing based on early blight development, using a
“protectant” fungicide program

Use local weather to guide fungicide schedule

Alternative to 7-14 day calendar spray programs

Only a PART of the Disease management component of an overall

IPM Program for tomatoes
 TOMCAST Disease Spectrum
PREDICTED Bonus Diseases

Early Blight Anthracnose

NOT PREDICTED

Septoria leaf spot

Tomato spotted Bacterial Canker Late Blight

wilt virus
 Alternaria biology
Environmental Conditions for Germination & Sporulation

Alternaria spores
 Germinate within 2 hours over a wide range of
temperatures but at 25 to 29oC may only take 1/2 hour.

 Another 3 to 12 hours are required for the fungus to

penetrate the plant depending on temperature.
 After penetration, lesions may form within 2-3 days
or the infection can remain dormant awaiting
proper conditions (15.67oC and extended periods of
wetness). Alternaria solani

Alternaria sporulates
Best at about 26.67oC when abundant moisture is Present
(rain, mist, fog, dew, irrigation).
 TOMCAST
Disease Severity Value (DSV) Chart
Average Temperature During Leaf Hours of Leaf Wetness per Day
Wet Hours

13-17C (55-63F) 0-6 7-15 16-20 21+

18-20C (64-68F) 0-3 4-8 9-15 16-22 23+

21-25C (69-77F) 0-2 3-5 6-12 13-20 21+

26-29C (78-84F) 0-3 4-8 9-15 16-22 23+

Daily DSV= 0 1 2 3 4

 TOMCAST DSV generated on 24 hour intervals  15 DSV, more conservative (> sprays)
 20 DSV, less conservative (< sprays)
 Calculation requires leaf wetness and air temperature inputs

 0-Environmental conditions unfavorable for disease development

 4-Environmental conditions highly favorable for disease development

 Thanks To All…

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