Professional Documents
Culture Documents
THE WEALTH OF
REFUGEES
how displaced people can
build economies
ALEXANDER BETTS
1
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Acknowledgements
The title of this book borrows from Adam Smith’s 1776 The Wealth of
Nations, arguably the founding text of modern economics. It plays on the
fact that throughout the intervening 250 years, economics has rarely considered
the economic lives of some of those people who fall outside of the framework
of the nation-state: refugees and other exiled populations.
Smith’s treatise, like this book, was not just a work of economics. It was
a political economy text, integrating reflections on ethics, economics,
politics, and policy—the four main sections of this book. At its core, the
Wealth of Nations posited a simple idea: that, generally, allowing people the
autonomy to make their own choices and pursue their own interests leads
to the best collective outcomes. And yet these ideas have seldom shaped
refugee governance, a domain in which even basic socio-economic freedoms
are frequently denied. At a more trivial level, my choice of title is intended
to signal the book’s focus on refugees’ economic lives, to emphasize refugees’
skills and capabilities, and to highlight the growing prevalence of displaced
people around the world.
The numbers of displaced people and refugees are increasing due to a
proliferation in the number of fragile states. And this problem is likely to be
exacerbated by climate change and the economic legacy of coronavirus.
The World Bank estimates that by 2050 some 140 million people may be
displaced by climate change, and global economic recession threatens to
amplify other drivers of displacement such as conflict and weak governance.
And yet, rising populist nationalism is undermining the political willingness
of rich and poor countries to admit migrants and refugees into their terri-
tories. Given these contradictory trends, I ask: how can we create sustainable
refugee policies that can enable displaced people to live in safety and dignity,
while still operating at scale?
My purpose in writing this book is to contribute towards practical solu-
tions for refugees, and to do so based on social science research and evi-
dence. In order to identify sustainable solutions, I focus predominantly on
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just three countries in East Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. Between
them, they host more refugees than the whole of the European Union.
They have quite different approaches to refugees—Uganda lets them work,
Kenya does not, and Ethiopia has gradually started to move towards giving
refugees greater socio-economic freedoms. In different ways, though, all
three countries have experimented with specific, innovative approaches to
refugee assistance.They provide important lessons relevant for the rest of the
world.
I examine these case studies through qualitative and quantitative research,
and relate the findings to other refugee-hosting regions of the world in
which I have also worked, including Latin America, the Middle East, and
Europe. I explore four sets of questions. First, the ethics—what is right?
Second, the economics—what works to achieve what is right? Third, the
politics—how can we get governments to do the things that work and are
right? Fourth, the policy—what specifically do governments and other
actors need to do next?
The book’s central argument is that, within this age of displacement, the
key to sustainability lies in unlocking the potential contributions of refugees
themselves. They bring skills, talents, and aspirations and can be a benefit
rather than a burden to receiving societies. Realizing this potential relies
upon moving beyond a purely humanitarian focus to fully include refugees
in host-country economies, build economic opportunities in refugee-hosting
regions, and navigate the ambiguous politics of refugee protection.
The scale of first-hand research involved in this book is vast, and I have
not undertaken all of it alone. In particular, the work in Chapters 3–7 draws
upon survey data collection that would have been impossible without the
input of more than 200 refugee and host community research assistants,
who worked with us across six main research sites in Ethiopia, Kenya, and
Uganda. These chapters draw upon the analysis, guidance, and data collec-
tion of two senior researchers, Naohiko Omata and Olivier Sterck. They
also relied upon the contribution of a number of research assistants and
consultants, including Jordan Barnard, Raphael Bradenbrink, Imane Chaara,
Antonia Delius, Eyoual Demeke, Leon Fryszer, Aregawi Gebremariam, Abis
Getachew, Jonathan Greenland, Louise Guo, Helen Karanja, Jonas Kaufmann,
Jana Kuhnt, Andonis Marden, Patrick Mutinda, Rashid Mwesigwa, Cory
Rodgers, Jade Siu, Maria Flinder Stierna, and Clarissa Tumwine. Reflecting
these contributons, Chapters 3–7 draw from work co-authored with several
of these colleagues, originally published as part of the Refugee Economies
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A c k nowle dg e m e nts ix
Programme policy papers series. Finally, that research also required signifi-
cant coordination, for which I am grateful to Isabelle Aires and Madison
Bakewell.
I am grateful to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) for supporting my
field research in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, including through the provi-
sion of transportation, accommodation, advice, and logistical support. I am
especially appreciative of the contributions of Clementine Awu Nkweta-
Salami, Raouf Mazou, Yonatan Araya, Tayyar Sukru Cansizoglu, Fathia
Abdalla, Mohamed Shoman, Eva Lescrauwaet, Ann Encontre, Jaime
Bourbon de Parme, Joel Boutroue, George Woode, Dejan Tanaskovic, Tapio
Vahtola, Anna Korneeva, Christine Fu, and Ziad Ayoubi. At the World Food
Programme (WFP), Zippy Mbati provided support for the Refugee
Economies Programme’s wider research in Kenya. I also thank the govern-
ments of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda for granting me and my research
teams permission to undertake first-hand research in cities and refugee
camps within their countries.
A number of other people have facilitated research access in important
ways. Heather Faulkner and Anna Haward were an invaluable source of
guidance during my research in the UNHCR archives in Geneva. Felipe
Muñoz and Vicente Echandia from the President’s Office in Colombia, and
John Patterson from the United States Agency for International Development
(USAID) kindly invited me to Colombia to better understand the
Venezuelan refugee crisis. The Forum of Young Global Leaders (YGLs) of
the World Economic Forum (WEF) collaborated on two visits to Kakuma
and Nairobi in 2018 and 2019, which provided useful access, and reflection
space for some of the ideas in the book. I am grateful to Mariah Lavin,
Mahmoud Jabari, Silje Ditlefsen, Adrian Monck, Ed Hough, and Peter
Holmes à Court, as well as my fellow YGLs. Laura Hammond of the School
of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) convened a useful symposium in
Addis Ababa for UKRI’s Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) grant-
ees, and generously shared contacts with policy-makers in Addis.
I am thankful to illustrator Sally Dunne for allowing me to use her
award-winning sketch of the Kakuma refugee camps, as the basis for the
front cover. Her illustration is part of a series entitled ‘At Home in Kakuma
Refugee Camp’. The image captures both the remoteness and vibrancy of
the camps, a theme that is present throughout the book.
The research in this book would not have been possible without several
research grants. The IKEA Foundation generously funded the research of
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x A c k nowle dg e m e nts
A c k nowle dg e m e nts xi
Contents
1. Introduction 1
Endnotes 373
Index 421
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Figures
3.1 Conventional understanding of the ‘migration hump’ relationship 94
8.1 Three-level bargaining model: global-, national-, and local-level
roles within negotiating the right to work for refugees 217
12.1 Sustainable Refugee Economies Framework 303
Tables
3.1 Sample size from first wave of data collection 80
3.2 Sample size from second wave of data collection in Kenya 81
3.3 The ‘Refugee–Host Development Gap’—summary of estimated
median welfare indicators for refugee and proximate host
populations across all six sites 83
3.4 Approximate percentage of overall refugee population moving
each year 96
5.1 Comparing Uganda’s and Kenya’s refugee policy models 122
5.2 Summary of the main positive findings relating to the impact
of Uganda’s regulatory framework, when comparatively
benchmarked against Kenya 125
6.1 Summary of self-reliance indicators 149
8.1 Variation in the right to work for refugees in East Africa 221
12.1 Sustainable Refugee Economies Framework applied to Dollo Ado,
Kakuma, and Nakivale 319
14.1 The impact of global recession on the causes, consequences, and
responses to forced displacement 342
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ERITREA
ETHIOPIA
SUDAN
Addis Ababa
SOUTH SUDAN
Dollo Ado
SOMALIA
Kakuma
UGANDA
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF
CONGO Kampala
KENYA
Nakivale
Nairobi
RWANDA
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1
Introduction
2 T he Wealth of Re f u g e e s
and poor countries often exploit public concerns for electoral gain.
Rather than highlighting the contribution that refugees can make to
receiving societies, or the moral obligation to host, politicians from
the United States to Tanzania emphasize the threat to the economy,
security, or identity. In this context, the question is: how can the
world find ways to sustainably host growing numbers of refugees and
displaced people?
This question matters for the rich world. In Europe, North America, and
Australasia, upholding refugee rights is critical to maintaining liberal, demo-
cratic values.2 To be regarded as liberal and legitimate, rich countries cannot
simply turn their backs on people who flee for their lives. One important
way to assist refugees is to allow them enter the country, either by letting
them arrive spontaneously as asylum seekers, or through organized resettle-
ment programmes.
Asylum and resettlement in the rich world have an indispensable role
to play, but they are only ever likely to be for the minority of displaced
people. The overwhelming majority of displaced people do not travel to
rich countries. Although some refugees embark on long and dangerous
journeys; most cross the nearest border to nearby camps and cities. The
biggest challenge for refugee policy is how to create meaningful and
dignified lives within these mainly poor countries that are close to warzones
and tyranny.
This is a book about what works. And what can work. It aims to be
practical, relevant, and solutions-oriented. Importantly, it is evidence-based.
In a policy field—refugees and migration—in which narrative, claim,
and counter-claim are often made without recourse to fact, this book
uses a range of social science methods to explore the kinds of policies
and practices that can actually provide sustainable sanctuary to refugees
and other displaced populations. It does so mainly by learning from the
experience of three countries in East Africa which, despite hosting more
refugees than the whole of the European Union (EU) and more than five
times as many as North America,3 have each adopted innovative, and in
some ways progressive, refugee policies aimed at mutually benefitting
refugees and host-country citizens. The goal is not to romanticize these
countries’ experiences; they have been far from perfect. Nor is it to
suggest they can simply be replicated elsewhere; context matters. Rather,
the aim is to critically assess what has been effective, and under what
conditions.
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I nt roduc tion 3
4 T he Wealth of Re f u g e e s
those displaced within their own country and across borders—and refugees,
who represent a large proportion of that group, is higher than at any time
since the Second World War. Most flee from chronically fragile or failed
states, with over half of the world’s recognized refugees from just Syria,
South Sudan, and Afghanistan. But practically each year, the list of fragile,
and hence refugee-producing, countries seems to expand. Venezuela and
Yemen are among the countries that have recently gone from relative stabil-
ity to societal collapse, and it will be many years before people can go home.
Several factors underlie the trend in fragile states, but among them is the
widening distribution of power in the international system, which is
exacerbating big power rivalries between the United States, Russia, and
China.These rivalries play out within small states of geo-strategic importance,
and yet simultaneously paralyse the UN Security Council in its search for
solutions. All the credible projections on the distribution of global power
suggest that this trend is unlikely to abate unless China and the United
States build a shared vision for responding to fragile states.
And a further trend is likely to further exacerbate displacement: climate
change.7 Anthropogenic climate change is an incontrovertible fact and it
will affect many areas of social life, which in turn have implications for
migration and displacement. In extreme cases, such as natural disasters,
desertification, and sinking islands the effects on displacement will be direct.
In other cases, the effect will be to amplify and exacerbate other sources of
displacement such as food insecurity and conflict.8 Where states are weak,
climate change will have its greatest impact on displacement.9 Already, we
are seeing the effects on forced displacement. In the Northern Triangle of
Central America, the surge in forced movement of people from rural
communities in Honduras and Nicaragua to the US has been partly attrib-
uted to the effects of climate change on food security, and its interaction
with weak governance.10 Across the Sahel, resource competition attribut
able to climate change is exacerbating existing conflicts in ways that have
led to displacement in Niger and the Central African Republic.11 Although
there is nothing inevitable about future forced displacement scenarios, cur-
rent trends strongly suggest that numbers will grow, possibly significantly.
Third, the politics relating to refugees and migration is increasingly div
isive. In Europe, North America, and Australasia, migration has steadily risen
in its political salience to become one of the most important electoral
issues.12 In some countries and regions, it has become the most important
political issue for voters. The so-called European refugee crisis of 2015–16
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I nt roduc tion 5
6 T he Wealth of Re f u g e e s
First, for refugees, a sustainable response must deliver their basic needs
and legal entitlements. In the language of refugee governance, it needs to
deliver protection, assistance, and solutions. Protection implies access to all
rights under refugee and human rights law, most notably the right not to be
forcibly returned to a country in which there is a serious risk of harm.
Assistance means access to basic services to ensure a guaranteed minimum
standard of living. Solutions relate to ensuring long-term integration within
a society, whether through return to the country of origin, or integration
and naturalization in a new country.
Second, sustainability requires a model that can maintain political support
at local, national, and international levels. In order to endure over time, and
to avoid backlash, refugee policies need to be able to retain the backing of
politicians, and to remain in power those politicians need to be able to
retain the support of their electorates and constituencies. Political authorities
in hosting regions, whether at municipal or provincial level, need to be
able to credibly argue that the local host community benefits from the pres-
ence of refugees. National host governments need to be able to credibly
argue that hosting refugees brings benefits that are in the national interest.
And the wider world of donor governments needs to derive benefits that
justify the allocation of scarce national resources towards supporting host
countries in other parts of the world.
Third, a sustainable refugee model must be able to function at scale and
endure over time. Given rising numbers, the growing number of chronically
fragile and failed states in the world, and the spectre of climate change, the
world needs to envisage models that can not only work for 25 million refu
gees today, but potentially also for significantly larger populations, perhaps
even of 50 or 100 million people crossing borders because they cannot
access the minimum conditions for living in safety and dignity. To deliver at
scale, approaches will need to be as efficient as possible in terms of eco-
nomic, social, and political costs.
Reconciling these competing criteria is one of the key global policy chal-
lenges of the twenty-first century.The goal of this book is to begin the search
for models that can resolve the challenge of providing sustainable sanctuary.
The book is written from the tradition of political realism. My aim is for
my research to be politically relevant. Of course, not all research on refugees
and forced migration needs to be politically relevant, and critical perspectives
that distance themselves from politics have an important role to play, not
least in challenging power structures and questioning the way we think
about the world.20 My aim, though, is to engage policy- makers and
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I nt roduc tion 7
8 T he Wealth of Re f u g e e s
I nt roduc tion 9
10 T he Wealth of Re f u g e e s
Fig. 1. Erroneous (left) and more valid (right) representation of the descent of man.
The situation may be clarified by two diagrams (Fig. 1). The first
diagram represents the inaccurate view which puts the monkey at the
bottom of the line of descent, man at the top, and the missing link in
the middle of the straight line. The illogicality of believing that our
origin occurred in this manner is apparent as soon as one reflects that
according to this scheme the monkey at the beginning and man at the
end of the line still survive, whereas the “missing link,” which is
supposed to have connected them, has become extinct.
Clearly the relation must be different. Whatever the missing link
may have been, the mere fact that he is not now alive on earth means
that we must construct our diagram so that it will indicate his past
existence as compared with the survival of man and the apes. This
means that the missing link must be put lower in the figure than man
and the apes, and our illustration therefore takes on the form shown in
the right half of figure 1, which may be described as Y-shaped. The
stem of the Y denotes the pre-ancestral forms leading back into other
mammalian groups and through them—if carried far enough down—to
the amphibians and invertebrates. The missing link comes at the fork
of the Y. He represents the last point at which man and the monkeys
were still one, and beyond which they separated and became
different. It is just because the missing link represented the last
common form that he was the link between man and the monkeys.
From him onwards, the monkeys followed their own course, as
indicated by the left-hand branch of the Y, and man went his separate
way along the right-hand branch.
Fig. 2. The descent of man, elaborated over Figure 1. For further ramifications, see
Figures 3, 4, 9.
These last five million years or so of the earth’s history are divided
unequally between the Tertiary or Age of Mammals, and the
Quaternary or Age of Man. About four million years are usually
assigned to the Tertiary with its subdivisions, the Eocene, Oligocene,
Miocene, and Pliocene. The Quaternary was formerly reckoned by
geologists to have lasted only about a hundred thousand years. Later
this estimate was raised to four or five hundred thousand, and at
present the prevailing opinion tends to put it at about a million years.
There are to be recognized, then, a four million year Age of Mammals
before man, or even any definitely pre-human form, had appeared;
and a final period of about a million years during which man gradually
assumed his present bodily and mental type. In this Quaternary period
fall all the forms which are treated in the following pages.
The Quaternary is usually subdivided into two periods, the
Pleistocene and the Recent. The Recent is very short, perhaps not
more than ten thousand years. It represents, geologically speaking,
the mere instant which has elapsed since the final disappearance of
the great glaciers. It is but little longer than historic time; and
throughout the Recent there are encountered only modern forms of
man. Back of it, the much longer Pleistocene is often described as the
Ice Age or Glacial Epoch; and both in Europe and North America
careful research has succeeded in demonstrating four successive
periods of increase of the ice. In Europe these are generally known as
the Günz, Mindel, Riss, and Würm glaciations. The probable
American equivalents are the Nebraskan, Kansan, Illinoian, and
Wisconsin periods of ice spread. Between each of these four came a
warmer period when the ice melted and its sheets receded. These are
the “interglacial periods” and are designated as the first, second, and
third. These glacial and interglacial periods are of importance because
they offer a natural chronology or time scale for the Pleistocene, and
usually provide the best means of dating the fossil human types that
have been or may hereafter be discovered (Fig. 5).
11. Pithecanthropus
Pithecanthropus erectus, the “erect ape-man,” was determined from
the top part of a skull, a thigh bone, and two molar teeth found in 1891
under fifty feet of strata by Dubois, a Dutch surgeon, near Trinil, in the
East Indian island of Java. The skull and the thigh lay some distance
apart but at the same level and probably are from the same individual.
The period of the stratum is generally considered early Pleistocene,
possibly approximately contemporary with the first or Günz glaciation
of Europe—nearly a million years ago, by the time scale here
followed. Java was then a part of the mainland of Asia.
The skull is low, with narrow receding forehead and heavy ridges of
bone above the eye sockets—“supraorbital ridges.” The capacity is
estimated at 850 or 900 cubic centimeters—half as much again as
that of a large gorilla, but nearly one-half less than the average for
modern man. The skull is dolichocephalic—long for its breadth—like
the skulls of all early fossil men; whereas the anthropoid apes are
more broad-headed. The jaws are believed to have projected almost
like a snout; but as they remain undiscovered, this part of the
reconstruction is conjectural. The thigh bone is remarkably straight,
indicating habitual upright posture; its length suggests that the total
body stature was about 5 feet 7 inches, or as much as the height of
most Europeans.
Pithecanthropus was a terrestrial and not an arboreal form. He
seems to have been slightly more similar to modern man than to any
ape, and is the most primitive manlike type yet discovered. But he is
very different from both man and the apes, as his name indicates:
Pithecanthropus is a distinct genus, not included in Homo, or man.
Neandertal man was short: around 5 feet 3 inches for men, 4 feet
10 inches for women, or about the same as the modern Japanese. A
definite curvature of his thigh bone indicates a knee habitually
somewhat bent, and probably a slightly stooping or slouching attitude.
All his bones are thickset: his musculature must have been powerful.
The chest was large, the neck bull-like, the head hung forward upon it.
This head was massive: its capacity averaged around 1,550 c.c., or
equal to that of European whites and greater than the mean of all
living races of mankind (Fig. 6). The head was rather low and the
forehead sloped back. The supraorbital ridges were heavy: the eyes
peered out from under beetling brows. The jaws were prognathous,
though not more than in many Australians and Negroes; the chin
receded but existed.
Some Neandertal Measurements
Skull
Fossil Stature
Capacity
Neandertal 1400 c.c. 5 ft. 4 (or 1)
in.
Spy I 1550 c.c. 5 ft. 4 in.
Spy II 1700 c.c.
La Chapelle-aux-Saints 1600 c.c. 5 ft. 3 (or 2)
in.
La Ferrassie I 5 ft. 5 in.
Average of male Neandertals 1550 c.c. 5 ft. 4 (or 3)
in.
Average of modern European males 1550 c.c. 5 ft. 5 to 8 in.
Average—modern mankind 1450 c.c. 5 ft. 5 in.
Gibraltar 1300 c.c.
La Quina 1350 c.c.
La Ferrassie II 4 ft. 10 in.
Average of modern European 1400 c.c. 5 ft. 1 to 3 in.
females