SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL

R EPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES

Department of Education 11
REGION V
SCHOOLS DIVISION OF NAGA CITY
CAMARINES SUR NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

LEARNING ACTIVITY SHEET NO. 10

NAME: GRADE LEVEL/SECTION:
TOPIC: Confidence Interval and Sample Size DATE:

INTRODUCTION

This Learning Activity Sheet was designed and written with you in mind. This will
guide you in estimating confidence intervals and sample size to make a research more valid
and reliable. It aims to help you understand the key concepts of estimation of sample mean
and population proportion as well.

LEARNING SKILLS FROM THE MELCs and OBJECTIVES

At the end of this activity sheet, you are expected to:

1. Identify and compute the length of confidence interval. (M11/12SP-IIIj-1 & 2)
2. Compute the appropriate sample size using the length of the interval.
(M11/12SP-IIIj-3)
• 3. Solve problems involving sample size determination. (M11/12SP-IIIj-4)

ACTIVITIES: LET US REVIEW

Estimation – the act of judging the size, amount, cots, etc., of something.

Estimation is one aspect of inferential statistics; it is the process of estimating the value of
a parameter from information drawn from a sample. In other words, the objective of
estimation is to determine the approximate value of a population parameter on the basis of a
sample statistic. The sample statistic as is referred to as the estimator of the population
parameter. The computed sample statistic is called the estimate.

An estimate may be a point estimate or an interval estimate. A point estimate is the value
of a sample statistic that is used to estimate a population parameter. Generally, whenever
point estimation is utilized, we calculate the margin of error associated with that point
estimation. For the estimation of the population mean, the margin of error is calculated as
follows:
Margin of error = ±1.960𝜎𝑥̅ or ±1.960𝑠𝑥̅

Specifically, the standard deviation of a sample mean is to be determined and multiplied

1.960. Here, 𝑠𝑥̅ is a point estimator of 𝜎𝑥̅ .

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS 1
 ACTIVITIES: LET US STUDY

Definition

Confidence interval – the interval defined within the true population where members of the
sample are expected to be found.

Confidence level – the confidence associated with an interval estimate. For example, if an
interval estimation procedure provides intervals such as 95% of the intervals formed using
the procedure will include the population parameter, the interval estimate is said to be
constructed at the 95% confidence level.

Confidence coefficient – the confidence level expressed as a decimal value. For example,
0.95 is the confidence coefficient for a 95% confidence level.

Any value of the confidence level can be selected to create a confidence interval, the more
frequent values are 99%, 95%, and 90%. The following confidence coefficients are 0.99, 0.95,
and 0.90

The formula for the confidence interval of the mean for the specific α is
𝜎 𝜎
𝑥̅ − 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝛼/2 ( )
√𝑛 √𝑛
𝜎
̅ − 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) is called the lower confidence limit (LCL).
𝑥
√𝑛
𝜎
̅ + 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) is called the upper confidence limit (UCL).
𝑥
√𝑛

1-𝜶 𝜶 𝜶/𝟐 𝒛𝜶/𝟐

0.90 0.10 0.05 𝑧0.05 = 1.645
0.95 0.05 0.025 𝑧0.025 = 1.960
0.99 0.01 0.005 𝑧0.005 = 2.567

𝜎
The term 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) is called the maximum error of estimate. The maximum error estimate is
√𝑛
the maximum of a parameter and the actual value of the parameter. For the specific value,
say α = 0.10, 90% of the sample means will fall within this error value on either side of the
population mean.

Illustrative Example 1

A marketing officer wishes to select 300 female receptionists from a group of

employees. The selected group has an average height of 1.70 cm and a sample standard
deviation of 25 cm. What is the 95% confidence interval of all of the employee’s height?

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS 2
Solution: Given: n = 300, sample mean = 170 cm, standard deviation = 25 cm, confidence
interval = 95%; thus 𝛼 = 5% and 𝑧𝛼 = 1.960
2

We substitute it to the formula we have:

𝜎 𝜎
̅̅̅ − 𝑧𝛼 (
(𝑥 ) , 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝛼 ( ))
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
25 25
= (170 – 1.960 ( ), 170 + 1.960 ( ))
√300 √300

= (167.171, 172.829)

≈ (167, 173)

Thus, the marketing officer is 95 % confident that the employees have a mean height
of 167 to 173 cm.

Illustrative Example 2

A random sample of 40 households has an average water consumption of 29 cubic

meters per month with a sample standard deviation of 8 cubic meters. Give 90% confidence
interval for the mean usage of water per month.

Solution: Given: n = 40, sample mean = 29, standard deviation = 8,

confidence interval = 90%; thus 𝛼 = 10% and 𝑧𝛼 = 1.645
2
We substitute it to the formula we have:
𝜎 𝜎
̅ − 𝑧𝛼 (
(𝑥 ) , 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝛼 ( ))
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛

8 8
= (29 – 1.645 ( ), 29 + 1.645 ( ))
√40 √40

= (29.92, 31.08)

≈ (26.9, 31.1)
Thus, the confidence interval is 26.9 to 31.1 cubic meters per month.

Sample Size Determination

Sample size determination is very much related to estimation. To get an accurate

estimate we need three things: the maximum error of estimate, the population standard
deviation, and the degree of confidence. The formula for the sample size is derived from the
maximum error of estimate formula

𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼/2 ( )
√𝑛
Solving for n,
𝑧𝛼/2 ∙ 𝜎 2
𝑛= ( )
𝐸

Where
n = sample size
𝜎 = population standard deviation
E = maximum error of estimate

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS 3
Illustrative Example 3
Supposed we wish to conduct a survey to observe the average number of hours a
student uses for a social media within a week. Assuming that the standard deviation is 8
hours based on a valid previous research, what should be the sample size to ensure a 90%
confidence interval and a margin of error or 1.5 hours?

Solution:
Given ME = 1.5, standard deivation = 8, and 𝛼 = 90 %. Note the corresponding 𝑧𝛼/2 =
1.645.
𝑧𝛼/2 ∙ 𝜎 2
𝑛= ( )
𝐸
8
n = (1.65 (1.5))2
n = 76.97 ≈ 77

Hence, the survey should have 77 respondents.

ACTIVITIES: LET US PRACTICE

A HUMSS student is conducting a research on the awareness of SHS learners on the

names of the Philippine Presidents. Given a margin of error of 4 with a standard deviation
of 9 having a 99% confidence level. What should be the minimum sample size that the
student-researchers need to estimate the populations mean?

Solution:
Given ME = 4, standard deivation = 9, and 𝛼 = 99 %. Note the corresponding 𝑧𝛼/2 =
2.567
𝑧𝛼/2 ∙ 𝜎 2
𝑛= ( )
𝐸
9
n = (2.567 (4))2
n = 33.36≈ 34

Therefore, to be 99% confident that the estimate differs from the true mean by 4, the
minimum sample size needed is at least 34.

Note: When determining sample size, we always round off the resulting value to the
next whole number

ACTIVITIES: LET US REMEMBER

The formula for the confidence interval of the mean for the specific α is
𝜎 𝜎
̅ − 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝛼/2 ( )
𝑥
√𝑛 √𝑛
𝜎
̅ − 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) is called the lower confidence limit (LCL).
𝑥
√𝑛
𝜎
̅ + 𝑧𝛼/2 ( ) is called the upper confidence limit (UCL).
𝑥
√𝑛

The formula for the sample size is

𝑧𝛼/2 ∙ 𝜎 2
𝑛= ( )
𝐸

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS 4
 ACTIVITIES: LET US PRACTICE MORE

An Environmentalist is making a survey on the number of households that applies

the principles of Waste Management in a certain community. Given the standard
deviation of 2.6, how large a sample must be selected if we want to be 95% confident of
finding whether the true mean differs from the sample mean by 1.5 hour?

Solution:
Given ME = 1.5, σ = 2.6, and 𝛼 = 95 %. Note the corresponding 𝑧𝛼/2 = 1.960
𝑧𝛼/2 ∙ 𝜎 2
𝑛= ( )
𝐸
2.6
n = (1.960 (1.5))2
Evaluate: 𝑛 ≈ 11.54
Round off to the nearest whole number: 𝑛 = 𝟏𝟐

Therefore, to be 95% confident that the estimate differs from the true mean by
1.5, we need a sample size of at least 12.

Note: When determining sample size, we always round off the resulting value to the
next whole number

ACTIVITIES: LEARNING TASKS

LEARNING TASK #1: Choose Me!

On each blank, write the letter that corresponds to the correct answer. Write “e” if the answer
is not in the choices. (5 points)

_____ 1. An interval that gives an estimated range of values within which the population
parameter is expected to fall is called _______
a. Probability interval b. Confidence interval
c. Confidence level d. estimator
𝜎
_____ 2. What is the expression for?
√𝑛
a. standard error of the mean b. the level of confidence minus one
c. the level of confidence d. the level of confidence plus one
_____ 3. The term 1 – 𝛼 refers to _____
a. the level of significance b. the level of confidence minus one
c. the level of confidence d. the level of confidence plus one
_____ 4. A random sample of 150 lemon fruits was drawn from 3,000 delivered lemons in the
market. The average weight of a sample lemon is 110 g with a standard deviation of 10 g.
What is the 99% confidence interval of the population mean?
a.(11.8, 12.9) b. (14.16, 115.82)
c.(13.6, 14.9) d. (9.75, 12.0)
_____ 5. In the formula for the confidence interval, you will find 𝑧𝛼/2 . What does the
subscript 𝛼/2 refer to?
a. The level of confidence
b. The probability that the confidence interval will contain the population
mean
c. The probability that the confidence interval will not contain the population
mean
d. The area in the lower tail of the sampling distribution of the sample mean

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS 5
LEARNING TASK #2: Complete Me!
Complete the table below by supplying the needed information and solve for the appropriate
sample size n. (5 points)

Confidence level 99%,

Population standard deviation = 30,
margin of error = 2.5
Confidence Level 𝑍𝛼⁄2 E 𝜎 n

LEARNING TASK #3: Show Me!

Solve the following problems. Show your solution. (5 points each)

1. The number of motorcycle sold annually by salespeople is normally distributed

with a standard deviation of 12. From a random sample of 300 salespeople taken,
the mean number of motorcycles sold annually was found to be 75. Find the 99%
confidence interval estimate of the population mean.

2. A college dean wishes to estimate the average number of hours students spend
doing homework per week. The standard deviation from a previous study is 4.5
hours. How large a sample must be selected if he wants to be 95% confident of
finding whether the true mean differs from the sample mean by 2.1 hours?

CRITERIA Scale
5 4 3 2 1
1. Knowledge
-Recall of mathematical facts is evident

2. Application
-Use of mathematical operation correctly

3. Evaluation
-Accurate and systematic

REFERENCES

Bluman, Allan G. Elementary Statistics: A Step-by-Step Approach, 9th Edition. McGraw-Hill

Companies, Inc. 2012

De Guzman, Danilo. Statistics and Probability. C and E Publishing, Inc. 2017

https://study.com/learn/sample-size-determination-questions-and-answers

Prepared by: CHRISTINE V. BELALE and MARIFLOR P. BICOMONG May 2021

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS 6