Traffic Injury Prevention

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Evaluating the impact of criminalizing drunk

driving on years of life lost due to road traffic
deaths in one megacity, China

Xiuqin Xiong, Zhan Wang, Rongbin Xu & Guoxing Li

To cite this article: Xiuqin Xiong, Zhan Wang, Rongbin Xu & Guoxing Li (2019) Evaluating the
impact of criminalizing drunk driving on years of life lost due to road traffic deaths in one megacity,
China, Traffic Injury Prevention, 20:4, 348-352, DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2019.1597269

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TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION
2019, VOL. 20, NO. 4, 348–352
https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2019.1597269

Evaluating the impact of criminalizing drunk driving on years of life lost due to
road traffic deaths in one megacity, China
Xiuqin Xionga, Zhan Wanga, Rongbin Xub, and Guoxing Lia
a
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; bDepartment of
Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Objective: Road safety is an important public health issue worldwide. However, few studies have Received 5 December 2018
analyzed the association between criminalizing drunk driving and years of life lost (YLL) due to Accepted 14 March 2019
road traffic deaths (RTDs). Our study can provide useful information about this policy.
KEYWORDS
Methods: We used interrupted time-series analysis to find the changes in monthly YLL and RTD
Road traffic death (RTD);
before and after law enforcement began using RTD data from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin. years of life lost (YLL);
Results: After adjustment for seasonality, months, holidays, and the number of people in each dis- criminalizing drunk driving;
trict, criminalizing drunk driving was followed by a 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–21.1%) drink driving; drunk
reduction in risk of RTDs and a corresponding 778.1-year (95% CI, 200–1,355.1) reduction in driving; law
monthly YLL. The reduction in YLL was especially significant among males, those aged 16–64 years
old, and suburban residents.
Conclusions: This study highlights that the law can lead to a reduction in YLL due to RTDs in
Tianjin, China. Large immediate public health benefits resulted from the new road traffic law in
China. YLL provides a complementary measure for examining the effect of criminalization on
drunk driving RTDs.

Introduction
Road safety is an important public health issue. According
to data published by the World Health Organization (WHO
2018), the number of road traffic deaths continues to rise
steadily, reaching 1.35 million worldwide in 2016, approxi-
mately 20% of which are in China. Road traffic injuries are
currently estimated to be the eighth leading cause of death
across all age groups globally and it is estimated that 5–35%
of all road deaths are alcohol related (WHO 2018). Drunk
driving is the one of the most important risk factors for
road traffic deaths (RTDs). In most high-income countries,
about 20% of fatally injured drivers have blood alcohol levels
higher than the legal limit for that country. In contrast, in
low- and middle-income countries, this proportion is even
higher, with 33–69% of fatally injured drivers having con-
sumed alcohol before a crash (Global Road Safety
Partnership 2007; Stewart et al. 2012).
Some studies have shown that laws related to drunk driv-
ing may reduce the incidence of road traffic injuries. In
Japan, all traffic injuries, severe traffic injuries, alcohol-
impaired traffic injuries, alcohol-impaired severe traffic inju-
ries, and alcohol-impaired traffic fatalities per billion kilo-
meters driven declined significantly from baseline after the
enactment of the new road traffic law in June 2002 (Nagata
et al. 2008). In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012
decreased the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit
for driving while impaired from 0.1 to 0.08 g/100 ml and the
legal BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol
from 0.05 to 0.03 g/ml. A Chilean study showed that there
was a steeper decreasing trend after this law passed,
although the difference was not statistically significant
(Nistal-Nu~no 2017). A recent study has indicated that the
decrease in teen alcohol-related crash ratios was associated
with the zero-tolerance laws in the United States (Romano
et al. 2015).
Various government policies were introduced to reduce
drink driving in China between 1949 and 2003 but they
were not powerfully enforced. The Law on Road Traffic
Safety was launched in 2003. The first measurement stand-
ard was announced in 2004: A BAC between 0.02 and
0.08 g/100 ml is drink driving and a BAC > 0.08 g/100 ml is
drunk driving. However, the real practice of a BAC limit
was not as good (Wang et al. 2015). To reduce the losses
caused by alcohol-related driving, the Chinese government
implemented a more severe law on May 1, 2011, which stip-
ulates 5-year driver’s license suspension for drivers with a
BAC between 0.02 and 0.08 g/100 ml and a prison sentence

CONTACT Guoxing Li liguoxing@bjmu.edu.cn Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38,
Xueyuan Rd., Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/gcpi.
Associate Editor Kathy Stewart oversaw the review of this article.
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed on the publisher’s website.
ß 2019 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

as well as 10-year license suspension for drivers with a BAC
>0.08 g/100 ml. Drunk driving leads to criminal detention
according to the new law rather than administrative deten-
tion under the old law. The difference between criminal
detention and administrative detention is mainly reflected in
2 aspects. First, the time limit is different. Administrative
detention ranges from 1 to 15 days, whereas criminal deten-
tion ranges from 1 to 6 months. Second, the influence on a
person is different. Criminal detention will be recorded and
greatly impact people’s work and lives. For example, lawyers,
civil servants, and workers in state-owned enterprises may
risk losing their jobs. However, the influence of administra-
tive detention is much smaller.
Few studies have explored the association between the
criminalizing drunk driving law and alcohol-related fatal
crashes in China. Li et al. (2017) investigated the prevalence
of drunk driving in Dalian and Suzhou and found that the
rate of drink driving decreased after the law was enacted. A
cross-sectional study showed that there was a sharp decrease
in traffic fatalities caused by drunk driving after implemen-
tation of the new law (Wang et al. 2015). However, neither
study examined whether the decline was due to the severe
law or not. One study quantitatively examined the associ-
ation between the law and road traffic injuries in
Guangzhou (A. Zhao et al. 2016). However, the study failed
to classify the analysis according to individual characteristics
(e.g., age or sex) of the victims and lacked stratification ana-
lysis by urban and suburban areas, where the density of the
population and the intensity of the enforcement of the law
are different.
In addition, mortality can only provide information on
the number of deaths. To more accurately determine the
socioeconomic burden, it is not sufficient to only evaluate
mortality. For example, a young man’s death weighs greater
than that of an older person in terms of the negative influ-
ence on the social economy. Years of life lost (YLL) simul-
taneously considers age and the number of deaths, so it is a
more comprehensive indicator to measure the burden
caused by RTDs. However, no study has used YLL due to
road traffic accidents to evaluate the effect of the law.
By the end of 2011, the number of civil automobiles
owned in Tianjin was close to 2.1 million, and the number
of drivers was close to 2.8 million. In the present study, we
used the RTD data set of Tianjin and investigated the asso-
ciation between the YLL and the change in the road traffic
law as of May 2011. Further, we explored the impact of poli-
cies on people of different characteristics through a stratifi-
cation analysis.
Methods
Study area and population
Tianjin is located in northern China (38
340 –40
150 N,
116
430 –118
040 E) and is a metropolis of China. Our study
area includes 6 urban and 10 suburban areas (3,340 km2)
from 2008 to 2014. Tianjin has a typical monsoon-influ-
enced climate featuring 4 distinctive seasons. The registered
population was 97 to 102 million from 2008 to 2014.
TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 349
Mortality data
We obtained RTD data from the Chinese Centre for Disease
Control and Prevention. The health outcomes related to road
traffic death are classified by the International Classification
of Diseases, 10th revision (WHO 2016), including transport
accidents (V01–V99). The data set was stratified by age (<16
years, 16 and <65 years, and 65 years), gender (female
and male), and registered address (urban areas: Hebei,
Heping, Hedong, Nankai, Hongqiao, and Hexi; suburban
areas: Dongli, Xiqing, Jinnan, Beichen, Wuqing, Baodi,
Jixian, Ninghe, Jinghai, and Binhai new area).
YLL data
YLL data were estimated using the standard expected years
of life lost approach based on the WHO standard life table
for YLL (Table A1, see online supplement). YLL for each
death were calculated by matching age to the life table.
Daily YLL were the sum of the YLL for all deaths on that
day. Then, the sums were stratified by age, gender, and area,
which were similar to mortality data.
Statistical method
We used an interrupted time-series analysis to determine
whether changes in RTD occurred due to the change in the
road traffic law change as of May 2011. This approach has
the advantage of automatically controlling for time-invariant
confounders (e.g., age, sex, socioeconomic status) by exam-
ining the same population repeatedly over time. A regres-
sion model was used to explore the association between
RTDs and the policy of criminalizing drunk driving. The
monthly YLL of RTD was modeled, with adjustments for
seasonal patterns. The model formula was as follows:
EðYt Þ ¼ b0 þ b1 Xt þ b2 Ut þ b3 Zt þ sðmonthÞ


þ offset log ðpopÞ ; (1)
where b0 is the intercept; Xt is the pre- and postintervention
periods (0 for the pre-intervention period and 1 for
the postintervention period); Ut is time (Ut ¼ 1 for January,
Ut ¼ 2 for February, and so on); and Zt is the number of
holidays or weekends in the month; s denotes the Fourier
term, and month is the month in the calendar year. The
number of people registered in every district each year was
modeled using as an offset.
Furthermore, we investigated the association between
RTDs and policies in our study. The same independent vari-
ables as those in the above model were used, except that a
regression model with a log link was used. The results were
presented as changes in excess risk (ER) of RTDs. The equa-
tion for ER is as follows:
ER ¼ ðeb  1Þ  100%: (2)
In Eq. (2), b is the value of the pre- and post-interven-
tion periods.
We conducted the stratified analysis by sex, age, and reg-
istered address and tested for statistically important
350 X. XIONG ET AL.
Table 1. Basic descriptive statistics of Tianjin, 2008–2014.a
Number of cars
Year owned by citizens (million)
2008 1.1
2009 1.3
2010 1.6
2011 2.1
2012 2.3
2013 2.7
2014 2.8
a
Data from Tianjin Statistics Bureau (n.d.).
differences between estimates of the strata of a potential
modifier by calculating the 95% confidence interval (CI)
according to Zeka et al. (2006). Autocorrelations in all mod-
els were assessed by the plots of autocorrelation functions
for the residuals. R software (3.1.2) was used to perform all
analyses using the “tsModel” and “stats” packages (Bernal
et al. 2017). P < .05 (2-sided) was considered significant.
Results
Table 1 shows the basic descriptive information of this study.
There was a steady upward trend in the number of cars
owned by citizens, total population, and population density in
Tianjin from 2008 to 2014. Daily RTDs saw a sudden reduc-
tion in 2011 and continued to decrease in 2012.
Table 2 shows the descriptive results before and after the
new law. We can see that the RTDs and the YLL of RTDs
all decreased after the intervention in 2011 except the sub-
group older than 64 years, although the decreases still need
further statistical test by regression model. Table 2 also shows
that males, middle-aged people (16–64 years), and suburban
residents comprised the majority of RTDs and the YLL.
Figure 1 also shows the RTD distribution by age group
and gender. Middle-aged people contributed most to the
total RTDs. In addition, the majority of RTDs were among
males. Figure 2 shows that YLL changes over time, with an
apparent peak from October to December. YLL before the
law was higher than that after the law and there was a sud-
den decrease in 2011. Figure 3 shows the same trend and
sudden decrease in 2011.
Table 3 shows the regression results of the intervention
in 2011 using data from 2008 to 2014. The overall monthly
YLL decreased by 778.1 years (P < .05) after enforcement
of the new law. The reduction effect of the law on YLL is
statistically significant for both females and males, with a
greater effect for males. As with different age groups, the
reduction in YLL is only statistically significant for middle-
aged people. When stratified by districts, the reduction in
YLL is only statistically significant in suburban areas, at
612.1 years (P < .05). For the effect on the risk of RTD,
overall RTD also decreased by 11.1% (P < .05) and
the RTD risk was reduced by 13.1% (P < .05) among mid-
dle-aged people. In other subgroups, the RTD risk was also
decreased but the decreases were not statistically significant.
From the autocorrelation function plots of the residuals,
we can see that the autocorrelation coefficients are almost
all between two dashed lines (except lag0, since the correl-
ation of itself is always 1). This means the autocorrelation of
Registered population Population density Daily RTDs
(million persons) (persons/km2) (persons/day)
9.6 822 4.2
9.7 831 4.3
9.8 837 4.4
9.9 847 4.1
9.9 845 3.7
10.0 854 3.7
10.1 864 3.8
the residuals is not significant (P<0.05), which indicates
that the results of the models are reliable. (Residual Plots,
see online supplement).
Discussion
This study in Tianjin, China, suggested that the enforcement
of a new law criminalizing drunk driving effective May 1,
2011, was followed by an 11.1% reduction in RTD risk and
a corresponding 778.1 YLL, which suggests that the new
law could greatly improve road safety. The reduction in
RTDs and YLL cannot be explained by the secular trend of
alcohol consumption. Data from China Monthly Economic
Indicators, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of
China (n.d.), showed mean annual increases of 43.1% for
the consumption of white spirits and 11.8% for the con-
sumption of beer in 2011–2012 compared to 2009–2010 (A.
Zhao et al. 2016). Thus, the reduction in RTDs and YLL is
likely to be contributed by the law.
YLL is a good supplemental indicator for the number of
deaths to evaluate the disease burden caused by road traffic
accidents. It can take both the number of premature deaths
and life expectancy at death into consideration (Huang et al.
2018). YLL may provide information that RTD data cannot
provide. However, to date, few studies in China have used
YLL as a health endpoint to assess the YLL reduction due to
the new drunk driving law. In this study, the reduction in
YLL in suburban areas is greater than that in the city; how-
ever, the decrease in RTD risk in the city is greater than
that in suburban areas. Although not all of the results are
statistically significant, they still suggest a trend. The reduc-
tion in RTD risk is related to the effect of the law, whereas
the YLL indicates benefits for public health. The results sug-
gest that enforcement of law is better in the city, though the
law shows greater reductions in YLL in suburban areas.
The larger reduction in YLL among males is worth not-
ing. In China, 81.04% of 230 million licensed drivers are
male (Zhang et al. 2013). A study investigating 10 urban
and rural areas in China showed that 76% of men and 36%
of women reported drinking alcohol during the past 12
months, with 33% of men and 2% of women drinking at
least weekly (Millwood et al. 2013). These findings suggest
that males are at greater risk. Therefore, males should be
targeted for education regarding the new law to reduce the
burden of drink driving and drunk driving. In addition,
middle-aged people showed the largest reduction in YLL
among the 3 age groups. This result is also consistent with a
 TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 351

Table 2. Summary statistics of monthly YLL and RTDs in Tianjin, China, 2008–2014.
Before intervention P50 (P25, P75) After intervention P50 (P25, P75)
RTD YLL RTD YLL
All 125 (113, 139) 5,786 (5,308, 6,544) 113 (105, 120) 4,854 (4,574, 5,301)
Female 29 (24, 31) 1,302 (1,125, 1,476) 25 (21, 29) 1,091 (877, 1,188)
Male 98 (90, 106) 4,623 (4,178, 4,874) 88 (77, 96) 3,886 (3,431, 4,175)
Young (<16) 5 (4, 6) 376 (295, 504) 4 (3, 5) 316 (215, 422)
Middle-aged (16–64) 103 (91, 114) 5,140 (4,505, 5,658) 88 (78, 95) 4,131 (3,916, 4,456)
Old (65) 18 (15, 22) 348 (294, 422) 22 (16, 24) 422 (318, 500)
City 24 (19, 27) 900 (747, 1,120) 18 (14, 21) 658 (552, 817)
Suburbs 103 (93, 115) 5,003 (4,423, 5,368) 94 (86, 100) 4,187 (3,949, 4,642)

Figure 1. Histogram of RTD distribution by age group and gender in Tianjin,

China, 2008–2014.

Figure 3. Scatterplot of monthly RTDs from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin, China.

Note: The solid red line denotes the seasonal trend of RTDs.

In the city, the density of police and the degree of the

Figure 2. Scatterplot of monthly YLL due to RTDs from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin,
China. Note: The solid red line denotes the seasonal trend of YLL.
study in Zhejiang that found that the majority of alcohol-
related driving offenses were among middle-aged individuals
(M. Zhao et al. 2012).
The absolute quantity of YLL and the reduction in YLL
in suburban areas are greater than those in urban areas. A
recent study found the mean amount of alcohol consumed
was higher in rural areas than in urban areas (333 g/week vs.
238 g/week; P < .001; Millwood et al. 2013). Some studies
showed that suburban traffic offenders are more likely to be
involved in fatal/serious injury accidents (Zhang et al. 2013).
In addition, the reduction in YLL is greater in the suburbs
than in the city. This means that the law can produce more
public health benefits in suburban areas. However, the
reduction in excessive risk of RTDs in urban areas was
greater than that in suburban areas, although the reduction
was not significant. One study found that in rural areas,
traffic police resources are more likely to be limited (Terer
and Brown 2014), which may reduce the effect of the law.
enforcement of the law may be greater than that in the sub-
urbs. Thus, equipping the police better and enhancing
enforcement of the law in the suburbs can result in greater
public health benefits in the suburbs.
With regard to the effect of the new law, we also need to
consider the psychology of the drivers and the cultural con-
text because China has a long history of drinking. It is sup-
posed that a person will learn behaviors through their own
experiences and through differential association with signifi-
cant others (e.g., family, friends) or distant reference groups
(e.g., school, church) from social learning perspectives
(Akers and Sellers 2008). Therefore, the cultural context and
peer relationships also contribute to acceptance of
drink driving.
Our study has several strengths. First, compared to previ-
ous studies, this is the first study using YLL as the outcome
indicator to evaluate the association between the criminal-
ization of drunk driving and YLL. Because YLL is a more
direct indicator of disease burden than injuries and some
risk behaviors, such as speeding and drunk driving, our
study may provide more important implications for policy-
makers (Li et al. 2017). Second, the time-series design can
control for time-invariant confounders and adjust for tem-
poral trends, such as seasonality, which may influence the
rate of RTDs (Bernal et al. 2017). Furthermore, a previous
study that evaluated the benefits of criminalization of drunk
driving used data from Guangzhou, a city in southern China
(A. Zhao et al. 2016). However, alcohol consumption in
northern China is greater than that in southern China (Hao
et al. 2005). Therefore, it is necessary to carry out one
352 X. XIONG ET AL.

Table 3. Effects of law enforcement in 2011 on monthly YLL and RTDs in Tianjin, China.
Changed monthly YLL Excess risk of RTD due
due to the law (95% CI), years to the law (95% CI), %
All 778.1 (1,355.1, 200.1) 11.1 (21.1, 1.1)
Gender
Female 253.1 (491.1, 16.1) 14.1 (29.1, 4.1)
Male 525.1 (1,001.1, 48.1) 11.1 (21.1, 0.1)
Age
Young (<16) 82.1 (243.1, 78.1) 21.1 (49.1, 23.1)
Middle-aged (16–64) 690.1 (1,200.1, 181.1) 13.1 (23.1, 3.1)
Old (65) 5.1 (98.1, 88.1) 1.1 (20.1, 26.1)
Area
City 166.1 (360.1, 28.1) 16.1 (34.1, 6.1)
Suburbs 612.1 (1,156.1, 68.1) 10.1 (20.1, 1.1)
P < .05.

research in a northern city in China. Our study in Tianjin
can supplement the previous evaluation of the benefits of
the new law.
There are several limitations of our study. Firstly, our
study did not analyze the RTD difference between day and
night. Previous studies suggested that drunk driving inci-
dents were more likely to occur between midnight and early
morning (12:00 a.m.–6:59 a.m.; Zhang et al. 2014). Secondly,
we cannot obtain detailed information on RTDs; that is,
passengers, pedestrians, or drivers. Finally, we cannot distin-
guish the types of automotive vehicles. Motorcycles might
be more vulnerable to involvement in traffic accidents
according to a previous study (Berecki-Gisolf et al. 2015). In
the future, more detailed information such as the time of
the accident and characteristics of the cars and the deaths
are needed for more extensive research to provide more spe-
cific guidelines for different population groups.
Education as well as enforcement of the law can influence
behaviors. Because China is a large country and enforcement
of the law may vary slightly in different provinces. Data
from a broad range of areas is needed to evaluate the real
effect of the law. The experiences learned from this interven-
tion policy in China might be useful for other countries
attempting to reduce the rates of RTDs by stricter laws on
drunk driving.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (Grant Number 81372950).
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