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Contents
Preface xv
1 Sustainability Challenges 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Weak Sustainability vs Strong Sustainability 6
1.3 Utility vs Throughput 8
1.4 Relative Scarcity vs Absolute Scarcity 10
1.5 Global/International Sustainability Agenda 10
1.6 Engineering Sustainability 12
1.7 IPAT 19
1.8 Environmental Kuznets Curves 20
1.9 Impact of Engineering Innovation on Earth’s Carrying Capacity 21
1.10 Engineering Challenges in Reducing Ecological Footprint 22
1.11 Sustainability Implications of Engineering Design 24
1.12 Engineering Catastrophes 27
1.13 Existential Risks from Engineering Activities in the Twenty-First
Century 30
1.13.1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) 30
1.13.2 Green Technologies 32
1.14 The Way Forward 34
References 35
viii Contents
Index 331
xv
Preface
Engineering for sustainable development brings both hope and challenges for the
twenty-first century.
The latest IPCC (2021) Report states that global surface temperatures will con-
tinue to increase under all emission scenarios until at least the mid-century. It is
clear that global warming of 1.5–2 ∘ C will be exceeded during the twenty-first
century unless significant reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas
emissions are made in the next few decades.
What does this mean for the engineering profession? It means that the tech-
nologies, material choices, and engineering designs will all face increasing pres-
sures to improve energy efficiency, to move towards only renewable energy, reduce
embodied energy and material intensity in engineering products and services, and
consider reducing end-of-life waste management issues through improved design,
resource recovery, and remanufacturing. It also will mean that the engineering
profession will need to seriously consider the stewardship and corporate social
responsibilities of living in a world destined for 9 billion people by mid-century
and all the attendant pressures of a warming climate, increased population den-
sity in our major cities, and the constant trade-offs between increased economic
growth and the conservation of global resources and the natural environment.
All these challenges are grounded in engineering decision-making. As high-
lighted by the Natural Edge Project (2002–2006), 70% of modern sustainability
challenges fundamentally involve engineering decision-making.
Engineering covers a wide variety of industry applications, manufacturing
sectors, consumer good production, and housing and energy systems. Engineers
were central to the seventeenth century Industrial Revolution which catalysed
the intensive production systems previous century have benefited from in terms
of improved health, higher living standards and phenomenal global economic
growth and technological development. We have the engineering profession to
thank for this.
xvi Preface
On the other side of the same coin, we have seen two centuries of significant car-
bon emissions resulting in global warming from fossil fuel consumption, we have
large-scale clearing of vast tractions of global vegetation in the race for increased
agricultural production and urban development and in doing so we have simply
relied on the benefits of the attendant economic growth to justify our voracious
need for expansion, market domination, and profitability. The yardsticks for the
success of such achievements were largely measured through increased profits,
shareholder return, and/or technological development.
However the tide is now turning. Climate pressures and a long winded global
policy discussion on carbon mitigation, increasing environmental and marine
degradation, extended periods of drought and water shortages and global resource
issues such as critical metal availability are now raising questions that the
engineering profession have not really had to previously seriously consider.
Our world is changing and will provide many new challenges for the twenty-first
century engineer.
This book is about that very challenge. As we engineer a future of sustainable
development, what is the role of the engineering in helping to mitigate, adapt, and
add resilience to the climate, resource, and stewardship challenges that govern-
ments, community, and the younger generation will expect from the profession in
coming decades? Zero carbon production, 100% renewable energy, circular econ-
omy use of product waste and resource recovery, mandatory sustainability assess-
ments that perhaps blockchain instruments will audit on our behalf and increasing
pressures on any associated negative impact on the community and the environ-
ment. Welcome to Engineering for Sustainable Development. The challenge is
ours. The responsibility is ours.
The authors thank Dr Gordon Ingram of Chemical Engineering Department of
Curtin University for his careful review of some chapters of this book.
Part I
Sustainability Challenges
1.1 Introduction
Sustainability is the goal or endpoint of a process known as (ecologically)
sustainable development. Sustainable development consists of a large number
of pathways to reach this endpoint that sees a balance between the provision
of ecosystem services, and human access to natural resources to meet the basic
needs of life. Engineering sustainability challenges are focused on managing this
challenge and coming up with innovative technological solutions to help sustain
the earth, given the fact that the earth’s existing resources will be inadequate in
meeting the demands of future estimated population growth. The latest data from
the global footprint network suggests that the humanity used an equivalent of 1.7
earths in 2016 (Vandermaesen et al. 2019), while the United Nations predicted
that the global population will increase from 7.7 billion in 2019 to 11.2 billion
by the end of this century (United Nations 2020). At the rate at which we consume
the earth resources, future generations will require approximately (1.7 × 11.2/7.7)
or 2.4 planets to provide equivalent resources by the end of this century. However,
we only have one planet.
Worldwide human population growth has been supported by the industrial
revolution and the invention of steam engine in the eighteenth century and mass
production. This industrial revolution gave birth to our modern civilization and
systematically improved living standards resulting in a population explosion
from 0.5 to 7.7 billion only over 253 years (1776–2019) (Cilluffo and Ruiz 2019).
The exploitation of minerals, fuels, biomass, and rocks for transport, agriculture,
building, and manufacturing increased rapidly during this time to deliver the
goods and services necessary to support the growth of modern civilization.
Technologies have advanced over these years significantly to exploit rare-earth
materials and scarce resources to meet the growing demand of an increasing
population and to run the modern economy. The scarcity of important materials
that are limited resources is only now being understood (Whittingham 2011).
Humanity currently thus uses resources 1.75 times faster than they can be
regenerated by nature or provided by our planet (GFN 2019). Apart from popula-
tion growth, factors which are causing the rapid decline of the earth’s resources
are our increased dependences on non-renewable resources, energy and material
intensive technologies, and uncontrolled production and consumption. Global
demand for materials has increased 10-fold since the beginning of the twentieth
century and is set to double again by 2030, compared with 2010 (European
Commission 2020). Resource producers have been increasingly able to deploy
a range of technological options in their operations, even mining and drilling
in places that were once inaccessible, increasing the efficiency of extraction
techniques, switching to predictive maintenance, and using sophisticated mod-
elling tools to identify, extract, and manage resources. The major emphasis
has been on economic growth to meet the demands of a growing population,
technological progress based on throughput-increasing (or resource exploitation)
without consideration of the bio-physical limits of our non-renewable resources
(e.g. coal, gas, ore, rocks). These resources require hundreds of thousands of
years to form below the earth, and it raises questions as to what will happen to
future generations when all finite non-renewable resources are exhausted due
to uncontrolled production and consumption. In addition to the exponential
growth of resource use, technology that is used for converting earth resources
to products (e.g. construction, automobiles, electronic items) and services (e.g.
electricity, internet, transportation, communication system, water supply) to meet
our growing demands have resulted in emissions of global warming gases (mainly
CO2 ). The consequence of global warming includes flooding, increased bushfire,
and the destruction of ecosystems. By 2050, between 70% and 80% of all people are
expected to live in urban areas (United Nation 2018), which are resource intensive
and artificial environments made by man, to further improve living standards.
The engineering challenge is to minimise land use and conserve resources whilst
meeting the demands of the world population through energy efficient buildings,
water conservation, compact cities, and efficient transportation systems in our
built environment.
Population control, rapid technological innovation, and behavioural change are
also required to enhance resource efficiency. It is now crucial for the present gen-
eration to change their behaviour and mindsets, which will enable them to sustain
adequate resources for future generations (inter-generational equity). According
to the Brundtland report (1987), ‘Sustainable development is development that
meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future gen-
erations to meet their own needs’. The widely used Brundtland’s definition on
sustainable development, was published in ‘Our Common Future’ in 1987.
While population density of developed nations is far less than that of developing
nations, overconsumption by the former has already exceeded their bio-capacity
1.1 Introduction 5
Ecology
Society
Ecological
Economy
Social Economic
Values
(a) (b)
Figure 1.1 Weak (a) and strong (b) sustainability. Source: Modified from Lim et al. (2015)
must make sure to address social needs while using resources within the earth’s
carrying capacity and not exploit resources beyond the earth’s carrying capacity.
The difference between ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ definitions of sustainability as shown
in Table 1.2 highlights the factors that need to be taken into account to achieve
strong sustainability. As it appears in Table 1.2, weak sustainability focuses on
economic growth, pollution control rather than pollution prevention, ignores the
earth resources limits and the risks associated with technological development,
and ignores the fact that exponential growth is taking place in a world. On the
hand, ‘strong sustainability’ focuses on pollution prevention instead of pollution
control, considers the ecological or bio-physical limits of earths resources, and
takes into consideration of consequences that may be resulted from human activ-
ities and technological development.
8 1 Sustainability Challenges
e
rs’ issu
inee
Eng
P A T
GWh CO2
I = Pop 𝝬 (GDP/Person) 𝝬 I/GDP CO2 = Pop × ×
Pop GWh
Current engineering practice mainly meets the human needs of the current gen-
eration by providing utility services including energy, infrastructure, electronics,
transportation, water, food processing, etc. At the same time, they also need
to consider ‘throughput’ in their engineering design process. The throughput
1.3 Utility vs Throughput 9
is the flow of raw materials and energy from the global ecosystem’s sources of
low entropy (mines, wells, fisheries, croplands) through the economy, and back
to the global ecosystem’s sinks for high entropy wastes (atmosphere, oceans,
dumps). Engineers need to make sure that more utility is provided per unit of
throughput (e.g. more MWh of electricity per unit of throughput consisting of
mining, processing, transportation, and the combustion of fossil fuel; building of
a 400 m2 house with reduced level of quarrying, crashing, construction activities
and the use of virgin materials).
Utility ignores the bio-physical limit of earth resources. This utility should be
non-declining for future generations as the future should be at least as better off
as the present in terms of its utility or happiness. On the other hand, physical
throughput is also to be non-declining (Daly 2002) meaning that the capacity
of the ecosystem to sustain the flows of food, fuel, minerals, water are not to be
exhausted. The use of energy and material efficiency and all Rs (recycle, reuse,
reduce, remanufacturing, redesign, recovery) can increase utility per unit of
throughput, thus leaving adequate natural resources for future generations.
Natural capital (i.e. clean air, water and non-contaminated or non-toxic soil)
is to be maintained and it is the capacity of the ecosystem to yield both a flow
of natural resources and a flux of natural services (i.e. grains for food, water for
drinking, irrigation). Maintaining natural capital constant is often referred to as
‘strong sustainability’ in distinction to ‘weak sustainability’ in which some natu-
ral resources are lost due to manmade capital (i.e. converting forest to an industrial
area). Ecological limits are rapidly converting economic growth into uneconomic
growth – i.e. throughput growth that increases costs by more than it increases ben-
efits, thus making most of us as well as future generation poorer (Daly 2002). For
example, climate change resulting from the GHG emissions from human activi-
ties to run the modern economy have already caused uneconomic consequences
such as bushfire, SLR, drought, and the extinction of species. Uncontrolled growth
without considering engineering innovation for resource conservation cannot pos-
sibly increase everyone’s relative income as few people tend to control most of
world resources. Use of increasingly finite, yet unowned ecosystem services (e.g.
soil, water, forest) by few imposes opportunity costs on future generations. For
example, rapid conversion of forest to cropland in Western Australia increased
the mixing of rainwater with salty water in deep aquifers due to the fact that the
roots of crops are not long enough like deep rooted perennial species to reach
deeper aquifers. Consequently, saline water table rise and affect the cultivation
of crops. This is an opportunity cost for future generations as they will not be
able to use this salt degraded land for crop production. More hard evidence of
over exploitation is in the mining industry where the ore grade in some mining
operations has begun to decline resulting in increased energy consumption and
costs, particularly with the extraction of small amount of minerals from a large
10 1 Sustainability Challenges
amount of ore. This is not only making the mineral processing expensive but it
is also causing a high level of land degradation, water pollution, and the loss of
biodiversity.
Think globally and act locally – The conservation of finite resources locally
could help enhance the security of indispensable resources like food, miner-
als, fuel globally. Also, the reduction of GHG emissions locally using renew-
able energy sources could help reduce global warming impacts.
1.5 Global/International Sustainability Agenda 11
Light tomorrow with today – Our combined effort and actions today or the
use of environmental friendly and resource efficient technologies that can
conserve resources and leave a better world for our future generations.
A WOMAN’S LOVE