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Political Revolt and Youth Unemployment in Tunisia Exploring The Education Employment Mismatch 1St Edition Isabel Schaefer Auth Download PDF Chapter
Political Revolt and Youth Unemployment in Tunisia Exploring The Education Employment Mismatch 1St Edition Isabel Schaefer Auth Download PDF Chapter
POLITICAL REVOLT
AND YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT
IN TUNISIA
Exploring the
Education-Employment
Mismatch
Isabel Schaefer
Middle East Today
Series editors
Fawaz A. Gerges
Department of International Relations
London School of Economics
London, UK
Nader Hashemi
Center for Middle East Studies
University of Denver
Denver
CO, USA
The Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, and
the US invasion and occupation of Iraq have dramatically altered the
geopolitical landscape of the contemporary Middle East. The Arab
Spring uprisings have complicated this picture. This series puts forward a
critical body of first-rate scholarship that reflects the current political and
social realities of the region, focusing on original research about conten-
tious politics and social movements; political institutions; the role played
by non-governmental organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the
Muslim Brotherhood; and the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Other themes
of interest include Iran and Turkey as emerging pre-eminent powers in
the region, the former an ‘Islamic Republic’ and the latter an emerg-
ing democracy currently governed by a party with Islamic roots; the
Gulf monarchies, their petrol economies and regional ambitions; poten-
tial problems of nuclear proliferation in the region; and the challenges
confronting the United States, Europe, and the United Nations in the
greater Middle East. The focus of the series is on general topics such as
social turmoil, war and revolution, international relations, occupation,
radicalism, democracy, human rights, and Islam as a political force in the
context of the modern Middle East.
vii
Contents
1 Introduction 1
Bibliography 5
ix
x Contents
9 Conclusions 93
Bibliography
97
Index 107
Abbreviations
xi
xii Abbreviations
xiii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
1 A previous version of this research was published as a working paper under: Schäfer,
Isabel (2017): Economic crisis and youth unemployment in Tunisia: a danger to the
democratic transition process? In: Mühlberger, Wolfgang (ed.) (2017): Transformation in
Tunisia: The First Five Years. EuroMeSCo Joint Policy Study, No. 5, Barcelona: IEMed, pp.
42–65.
2 Three major terrorist attacks in 2015 and one in 2016, an estimated number of 5000
Tunisian foreign fighters in Syria, and hundreds of returned foreign fighters in Tunisia.
1 INTRODUCTION 3
Bibliography
ASDA’A Butson-Marsteller. 2015. Arab Youth Survey. Dubai: asdea.
BAFD. et al. 2015: African Economic Outlook. Tunisia. Tunis: BAFD.
Schäfer, Isabel. 2017. Economic critis and youth unemployment in Tunisia: A
Danger to the Democratic Transition Process? In: Mühlberger, Wolfgang
(eds.): Transformation in Tunisia. The First Five Years. Euromesco Joint
Policy Stusy, no.5, Barcelona: IEMed, pp. 42–65.
UNDP (2016): Arab Human Development Report(AHDR 2016), New York:
UNDP.
Weinmann, Christoph David. 2014. Employment and Labor Market Analysis
Tunisia. Final Report. Bonn: GIZ.
CHAPTER 2
Abstract This chapter develops some reflections on the state of the art
and various theoretical approaches, including political economy, demo-
cratic transition literature, labor market theory, labor market sociology,
and development economics with regard to youth, unemployment, skill
mismatch, and human development.
the MENA region is not new (it began in the 1980s), and there is
also a significant amount of scientific publications on unemployment
even from before the Tunisian revolution, which is less dealt with
here, because the political framework conditions have significantly
changed since then, and the focus of the analysis is on the current
situation.
In the abundant literature on the “Arab Spring” and its after-
math, one can find numerous articles on the situation of the youth
in Tunisia and other MENA countries, and on the political actorness
of youth in the uprisings (including the use of social media), as well
as in the turnover of some of the authoritarian regimes (e.g., Floris
2012; Khoury 2011; Stora 2011; Meddeb 2011; Allal and Pierret
2013; Colombo 2016), or on radicalization processes among the youth
(e.g., Daguzan 2017). I will not delve more deeply into the debate
here, or on whether the “Arab Spring” was a “revolt,” a “revolution,”
an “upheaval,” an “uprising,” or a “social movement.” The way I
understand it, it was a revolutionary movement from below that led
to a fundamental change in the political system. Some authors retro-
actively deny the revolutionary historical momentum of 2011 and its
region-wide, trans-national dynamic, leading to the fall of the regimes’
dictators Ben Ali, Gaddafi, and Mubarak, independently from what
happened afterwards (i.e., the return of authoritarianism in Egypt,
and civil and proxy war in Libya), and deliberately reduce the revolt
moment to a local “social” uprising, minimizing political aspirations
of participation and freedom of the young generation—or else they
focus on the resilience of the authoritarian regimes, or try to demys-
tify the change dynamic (Anderson 2011). Only a few authors have
explored the role that social policy and, in particular, a gender-sensi-
tive social policy can play in terms of inclusion and responses to the
socio-economic demands of the protesters, and analyze the neces-
sity of a well-functioning social dialogue for a well-functioning and
dynamic economy (Karshenas et al. 2014; Karshenas and Moghadam
2006; Romdhane 2006, 2011). Many debates have taken place on
the wide range and importance of the various political, historic, eco-
nomic, and social factors triggering the upheavals in Tunisia and else-
where in the MENA region, and on the so-called “model character” of
the Tunisian case for other MENA countries. This study stresses that
there is no such “model” character, that the contexts significantly dif-
fer in each MENA country, and that youth unemployment was (and
2 REFLECTIONS ON THE STATE OF THE ART … 9
continues to be) one of the major factors that triggered the Tunisian
revolution (e.g., Al-Momani 2011)—next to the lack of freedom and
political participation; the lack of legitimation of the governing; a cor-
rupt regime and authoritarianism; the growing gap between the society
and the regime; social inequality; social fatigue and frustration; the lack
of societal recognition and exclusion of marginalized youth; the lack of
perspectives and possibilities to live in dignity; and fears of downward
mobility among the middle classes.
The notion or concept of youth—as an analytical category—is con-
tested in the social sciences (Bayat and Herrera 2010). There is not just
one definition of youth—there are many “youths.” Youth is not a mon-
olithic bloc; it is plural, multi-layered, heterogeneous, and an inherent
part of civil society. The AHDR defines youth “as the phase in life during
which a person’s state changes from one of dependence (childhood) to
one of independence (adulthood)” (AHDR 2016: 12). The understand-
ing of adulthood in a MENA context as “waithood” (e.g., Singerman
2008) describes the situation of young people who are in a period of
stagnation, who continue to live with their parents until age 30 (and
sometimes even until 40), due to unemployment, rising housing prices,
and other social problems. In the context of international development
agencies and organizations, there tends to be a consensus on the defi-
nition of individuals between 15 and 29 in some cases (AHDR 2016),
due to the prolonged transition phase faced by many in the MENA
region, and between 15 and 24 in many other cases (e.g., the UN)—
nor is there a regionally accepted definition. Some consider youth to be
a burden or a problem, while others consider youth to be a resource,
change-makers, or human capital. Others stress the youth dimension of
the Tunisian unemployment problem, as young people were the main
driving force of the Tunisian revolution and its demands for decent jobs,
and a better and more inclusive government have not yet been satisfied
(Boughzala 2016). Most of the quantitative sources used for this analy-
sis apply the definition of 15–24 years old, but on the qualitative level,
youth is understood to be a fluid category, and, in a wider sense, as the
current young generation.
Another important aspect is the political dimension of youth, in the
sense that large sectors of youth feel excluded from politics, and that
the gap from state politics is increasing rather than decreasing (Murphy
2012). In the Tunisian society under the Ben Ali regime, youth was
partly considered as a second category, as second-class citizens, or even
10 I. Schaefer
1 http://businessdictionary.com/definition/labor-market.html(13.7.2015)
2 REFLECTIONS ON THE STATE OF THE ART … 11
2 The constituent assembly “Assemblée nationale constituante” (ANC) was working from
November 2011 to October 2014. The new constitution of the Second Tunisian Republic
was adopted on 26 January 2014.
2 REFLECTIONS ON THE STATE OF THE ART … 13
success story also relied very much on profound reforms and reduction
of the public sector—which is not implementable in Tunisia, where the
public sector remains a “sacred cow” (WB 2014a, b, c).
Development economists say that the re-allocation from sectors
with a lower or marginal productivity to sectors with higher produc-
tivity can be an important driver of growth and job creation, and that
growth in developing economies is often driven by a structural shift from
agriculture to manufacturing and services (WB 2014a, b, c: 10). In the
Tunisian case, the move towards higher-production industrial sectors and
resulting higher incomes and increased demand for services is currently
planned, but not yet systematically implemented. A rise in the demand
of services can be observed, but this rise is rather due to modernization/
globalization (e.g., business services, telecommunications, finance), and
not to a shift from one productive industrial sector to another. The re-
allocation process of workers from low productivity to high productivity
sectors that contribute to growth (Rodrik and McMillan 2012) has not
yet been systematically tackled by the various transition governments.
The problem of job creation in the private sector is also related to
the sizes of the firms. Theoretically, most micro-firms and medium-size
firms transition to larger-size categories after a certain period of time, but
this can rarely be observed in the Tunisian case. Most of the Tunisian
firms are small, often one-person firms, and often rather informal, and if
they survive after a few years it is rather the exception. Low job creation
in the private sector is often explained by constraining business and trade
regulations (Malik 2013), the investment in capital-intensive instead of
labor-intensive industries due to energy subsidy distortions (Lin and
Monga 2010), by particular firm characteristics driving or slowing job
creation (Haltiwanger et al. 2011; Hsieh and Klenow 2012; Bartelsman
et al. 2014), or by the impact of a privilege system (WB 2014a, b, c).
The question as to what hinders more qualified job creation from an
economic development and industrial policy perspective is less in the
foreground here. The question is rather how the existing skill mismatch
developed and how it can be coped with. A recent World Bank study
explores the mismatch in low- and middle-income countries (Handel
et al. 2016). Tunisia is not part of the country case studies in this anal-
ysis; however, as a middle-income country, its findings concern Tunisia
as well. Previous publications focused on aspects of the dissatisfaction
of overqualified workers (Tsang 1987; Battu et al. 2006; Verhaest and
Omey 2006; Verhofstaedt et al. 2007). The research on over-education,
2 REFLECTIONS ON THE STATE OF THE ART … 15
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Soon after sunrise the mist began to dissipate, and the surface of
the water to appear for miles around roughened as if by a smart
breeze, though there was not the slightest breath of wind at the time.
“How do you account for that appearance?” said I to one of the
fishermen. “Ah, lad, that is by no means so favourable a token as the
one you asked me to explain last night. I had as lief see the Bhodry-
more.” “Why, what does it betoken? and what is the Bhodry-more?”
“It betokens that the shoal have spawned, and will shortly leave the
frith; for when the fish are sick and weighty they never rise to the
surface in that way. But have you never heard of the Bhodry-more?”
I replied in the negative. “Well, but you shall.” “Nay,” said another of
the crew, “leave that for our return; do you not see the herrings
playing by thousands round our nets, and not one of the buoys
sinking in the water? There is not a single fish swimming so low as
the upper baulks of our drift. Shall we not shorten the buoy-ropes,
and take off the sinkers?” This did not meet the approbation of the
others, one of whom took up a stone, and flung it in the middle of the
shoal. The fish immediately disappeared from the surface for several
fathoms round. “Ah, there they go!” he exclaimed; “if they go but low
enough; four years ago I startled thirty barrels of light fish into my
drift just by throwing a stone among them.”
The whole frith at this time, so far as the eye could reach, appeared
crowded with herrings; and its surface was so broken by them as to
remind one of the pool of a waterfall. They leaped by millions a few
inches into the air, and sunk with a hollow plumping noise,
somewhat resembling the dull rippling sound of a sudden breeze;
while to the eye there was a continual twinkling, which, while it
mocked every effort that attempted to examine in detail, showed to
the less curious glance like a blue robe sprinkled with silver. But it is
not by such comparisons that so singular a scene is to be described
so as to be felt. It was one of those which, through the living myriads
of creation, testify of the infinite Creator.
About noon we hauled for the third and last time, and found nearly
eight barrels of fish. I observed when hauling that the natural heat of
the herring is scarcely less than that of quadrupeds or birds; that
when alive its sides are shaded by a beautiful crimson colour which it
loses when dead; and that when newly brought out of the water, it
utters a sharp faint cry somewhat resembling that of a mouse. We
had now twenty barrels on board. The easterly har, a sea-breeze so
called by fishermen, which in the Moray Frith, during the summer
months, and first month of autumn, commonly comes on after ten
o’clock A.M., and fails at four o’clock P.M., had now set in. We hoisted
our mast and sail, and were soon scudding right before it.
The story of the Bhodry-more, which I demanded of the skipper as
soon as we had trimmed our sail, proved interesting in no common
degree, and was linked with a great many others. The Bhodry-
more[24] is an active, mischievous fish of the whale species, which has
been known to attack and even founder boats. About eight years ago,
a very large one passed the town of Cromarty through the middle of
the bay, and was seen by many of the townsfolks leaping out of the
water in the manner of a salmon, fully to the height of a boat’s mast.
It appeared about thirty feet in length. This animal may almost be
regarded as the mermaid of modern times: for the fishermen deem it
to have fully as much of the demon as of the fish. There have been
instances of its pursuing a boat under sail for many miles, and even
of its leaping over it from side to side. It appears, however, that its
habits and appetites are unlike those of the shark; and that the
annoyance which it gives the fisherman is out of no desire of making
him its prey, but from its predilection for amusement. It seldom
meddles with a boat when at anchor, but pursues one under sail, as a
kitten would a rolling ball of yarn. The large physalus whale is
comparatively a dull, sluggish animal; occasionally, however, it
evinces a partiality for the amusements of the Bhodry-more. Our
skipper said, that when on the Caithness coast, a few years before, an
enormous fish of the species kept direct in the wake of his boat for
more than a mile, frequently rising so near the stern as to be within
reach of the boat-hook. He described the expression of its large
goggle eyes as at once frightful and amusing; and so graphic was his
narrative that I could almost paint the animal stretching out for
more than sixty feet behind the boat, with his black marble-looking
skin and cliff-like fins. He at length grew tired of its gambols, and
with a sharp fragment of rock struck it between the eyes. It sunk with
a sudden plunge, and did not rise for ten minutes after, when it
appeared a full mile a-stern. This narrative was but the first of I no
not know how many, of a similar cast, which presented to my
imagination the Bhodry-more whale and hun-fish in every possible
point of view. The latter, a voracious formidable animal of the shark
species, frequently makes great havoc among the tackle with which
cod and haddock are caught. Like the shark, it throws itself on its
back when in the act of seizing its prey. The fishermen frequently see
it lying motionless, its white belly glittering through the water, a few
fathoms from the boat’s side, employed in stripping off every fish
from their hooks as the line is drawn over it. This formidable animal
is from six to ten feet in length, and formed like the common shark.
24. Properly, perhaps, the musculous whale.
One of the boatmen’s stories, though somewhat in the
Munchausen style, I shall take the liberty of relating. Two Cromarty
men, many years ago, were employed on a fine calm day in angling
for coal-fish and rock-cod, with rods and hand-lines. Their little skiff
rode to a large oblong stone, which served for an anchor, nearly
opposite a rocky spire termed the chapel, three miles south of
Shandwick. Suddenly the stone was raised from the bottom with a
jerk, and the boat began to move. “What can this mean!” exclaimed
the elder of the men, pulling in his rod, “we have surely broken loose;
but who could have thought that there ran such a current here!” The
other, a young daring fellow, John Clark by name, remarked in reply,
that the apparent course of the skiff was directly contrary to that of
the current. The motion, which was at first gentle, increased to a
frightful velocity; the rope a-head was straitened until the very stem
cracked; and the sea rose upon either bows into a furrow that nearly
overtopped the gunwale. “Old man,” said the young fellow, “didst
thou ever see the like o’ that!” “Guid save us, boy,” said the other;
“cut, cut the swing.” “Na, na, bide a wee first, I manna skaith the
rape: didst thou ever see the like o’ that!”
In a few minutes, according to the story, they were dragged in this
manner nearly two miles, when the motion ceased as suddenly as it
had begun, and the skiff rode to the swing as before.
THE TWIN SISTERS.
By Alexander Balfour.
One of these men is genius to the other;
And so, of these which is the natural man,
And which the spirit? Who decyphers them?
Shakspeare.
By Henry Mackenzie.