Premarket process sheet 19th April :

Self-check ins:

What am I grateful for today: I’m grateful for merritt black for giving me a trading method with edge

Longer term goals: stick to process sheet, execute good trades, be emotionally disciplined

Check in:

1.) Am I sick/ tired or upset: I am neutral today, not upset anymore, I have overcome the
challenges of Wednesday, and that has made me a better trader, so thank you market for
providing me that opportunity to develop a better process
2.) Am I feeling underconfident or over confident: I feel neutral, no need to feel confidence or
underconfidence, my job is to trade what is according to my process
3.) Process goal for today: I failed one portion of my process goal yesterday, which was to not let
prior trading setbacks affect my current trading, and that’s okay, we are flawed as humans
and it’s only natural to make mistakes, what matters is that ive learned from those mistakes.

Process goal for today: Stick to the process, don’t worry about short term results as they are random,
play for the long term expectancy.

Visualization for the process goal:

Major economic releases:

Unemployment claims at 6, fomc speakers at 6:45 might see some volatility premarket

Chart analysis:

Crude oil

Weekly

DVA

1.) Current condition : imbalanced down

2.) Recent rejection dvah
3.) Likely destinations lower
 4.) What didn’t happen na
5.) Future acceptance possibilities could attempt rotational
6.) Overall grade based on recency of shift: -3, we’ve been above and below weekly level quite a
bit
Also there is this acceptance issue,

If we look at the last 2 rotations, weekly is rotational, however the last 2 rotations were
purely news driven moves and not part of the normal rotation distribution, so if we look at
what’s normal for the market, crude has accepted below weekly.

PVA:

1.) Current condition imbalanced down

2.) Recent rejection pval
3.) Likely destinations lower
4.) What didn’t happen : na
5.) Future acceptance possibilities: market too far away to take this into consideration
6.) Overall grade based on recency of shift: -4, pretty recent, but we’ve been above and below
this level a few times

Monthly:

DVA

7.) Current condition imbalanced down

8.) Recent rejection dvah
9.) Likely destinations lower
10.)What didn’t happen:
11.)Future acceptance possibilities: could go rotational, but unlikely
12.)Overall grade based on recency of shift: -5

PVA:

7.) Current condition : imbalanced up, market acting as support

 8.) Recent rejection: pvah
9.) Likely destinations: higher
10.)What didn’t happen
11.)Future acceptance possibilities: could break below it, especially since it’s the second time we
are knocking on it’s doors
12.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Quarterly:

DVA

13.)Current condition
14.)Recent rejection
15.)Likely destinations
16.)What didn’t happen
17.)Future acceptance possibilities
18.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

PVA:

13.)Current condition
14.)Recent rejection
15.)Likely destinations
16.)What didn’t happen
17.)Future acceptance possibilities
18.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Yearly:

DVA

19.)Current condition fast trend

20.)Recent rejection : +2, stuck between +2 and +1.5
21.)Likely destinations support at 1.5, if that fails headed lower to dvah
22.)What didn’t happen
23.)Future acceptance possibilities
24.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

PVA:

19.)Current condition
20.)Recent rejection
21.)Likely destinations
22.)What didn’t happen
23.)Future acceptance possibilities
24.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Profile distribution:

PVA

25.)Current condition : imbalanced down

26.)Recent rejection : pval
27.)Likely destinations lower
 28.)What didn’t happen
29.)Future acceptance possibilities: could accept higher
30.)Overall grade based on recency of shift: -5

CVA:

25.)Current condition : imbalanced down

26.)Recent rejection : cval
27.)Likely destinations: lower
28.)What didn’t happen na
29.)Future acceptance possibilities: could accept back into cva
30.)Overall grade based on recency of shift: - 5

Hypos for the day:

Hypo 1 is basically brpb of pval + imbalanced continuation of weekly and monthly

1-A is slightly better in terms of trade locations, as it’s a pva extreme fade + weekly ipb +
continuation of monthly imbalance
Now, in scenario 1, the brpb of pval will also technically be after a bull breakout after cvah,
so there is a bit of dissonance there, the much better trade would be to wait for 1-A
Therefore: risk 3 contracts on 1 and 2, risk 4 contracts on scenario 1-A

ES:
Weekly

DVA

31.)Current condition
32.)Recent rejection
33.)Likely destinations
34.)What didn’t happen
35.)Future acceptance possibilities
36.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

PVA:

31.)Current condition
32.)Recent rejection
33.)Likely destinations
34.)What didn’t happen
35.)Future acceptance possibilities
36.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Monthly:

DVA

37.)Current condition
38.)Recent rejection
39.)Likely destinations
40.)What didn’t happen
41.)Future acceptance possibilities
42.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

PVA:

37.)Current condition
38.)Recent rejection
39.)Likely destinations
40.)What didn’t happen
41.)Future acceptance possibilities
42.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Quarterly:

DVA
 43.)Current condition
44.)Recent rejection
45.)Likely destinations
46.)What didn’t happen
47.)Future acceptance possibilities
48.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

PVA:

43.)Current condition
44.)Recent rejection
45.)Likely destinations
46.)What didn’t happen
47.)Future acceptance possibilities
48.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Yearly:

DVA

49.)Current condition
50.)Recent rejection
51.)Likely destinations
52.)What didn’t happen
53.)Future acceptance possibilities
54.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

PVA:

49.)Current condition
50.)Recent rejection
51.)Likely destinations
52.)What didn’t happen
53.)Future acceptance possibilities
54.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Profile distribution:

PVA

55.)Current condition
56.)Recent rejection
57.)Likely destinations
58.)What didn’t happen
59.)Future acceptance possibilities
60.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

CVA:

55.)Current condition
56.)Recent rejection
57.)Likely destinations
58.)What didn’t happen
59.)Future acceptance possibilities
60.)Overall grade based on recency of shift

Post market review: Took some really good trades in ES today, took some questionable trades
in crude however.
Cl:
Context: market had opened lower inside the cva, I took a short after I saw the market reject
cvah after recent acceptance

First trade:

The only issue with this trade was that medium term ryhtm was compromised, but the fact
that it was a fresh acceptance inside cval , there was a good enough opportunitiy there since
we were in short term rhythm of the market.
I understood that and traded with less size ( 2 lots), however I made the mistake of not
entering both the lots at once,and scaled in the second lot at a worse price,.

Ideally I should have entered both lots at once, and then scaled out that first lot earlier to
lock in some profit.
The market unfornutely didn’t get all the way to destination and it was a losing trade

Main mistake: Scaling in out of fomo, not being clear enough on the entry size on a trade
where mtf rhythm was compromised.

2nd trade:
Now the market gave a pullback to the wdval level, but at this point we were in an imbalance
up on the rth dva, I tried to get a little cute and shorted 2 lots at the first momentum shift
after we hit weekly (While rth was still imbalanced up) to get a better average price, with the
plan to add the other 2 contracts after market went rotational on the rth

Obviously got stopped out.

Now this trade decision was risky, and I was aware of the risk of doing it hence only 2 lots,
but there is one thing I failed to notice:

By the time we had that pullback to weekly, the market had nearly accepted above pval, now
that on it’s own is not enough to invalidate the trade as we were still imbalanced down on
weekly and monthly, but it should have been a warning sign for me to not try risky stuff.

Main mistake: Did not recognize acceptance shift on time on pval

Third trade:

Now this was the only decent trade I took in crude, I shorted only 2 lots because I felt
something was a little off, although I didn’t know what, and that’s a mistake because I should
have, the reason I felt something was off was because we had accepted above pval, but I
forgot to check the acceptance shift.
So I made the right decision but for the wrong reason, this trade I got stopped out as well
but that’s okay.

Now the last 2 trades:

These trades were objectively bad, at this stage, we were 51 ticks above wdval, so we had
accepted above wdval and pval, so I shouldn’t have taken any shorts here
 So whats going wrong?

I am being too lazy with the trades, I just see the entry signal and my mind immediately
wants to push the trigger, I should run EVERY SINGLE TRADE through the process checklist ,
heck I don’t even have a physical form of the checklist, I need to create it asap and
constantly keep looking at it,
I will also implement a 5 minute timer to keep looking at it again and again.

ES:
Had 2 winning trades as per process:

Es: weekly dva ipb (main narrative, fresh shift) + cvah extreme fade + older cval fade (supporting
cast)

Classic weekly + distribution type of play, we were in mtf rhythm here although it starts looking a bit
flaggy where I shorted.

Also, although I don’t look at orderflow for ideal trade location plays, we had a late rotation
capitulation on my second entry short after getting stopped, that helped a little although not
important.

2nd trade that day:

Fresh cval breakout + semi fresh (2nd touch) wdval ipb

Good trade, in mtf rhythm as well. I saw a lot of absorption in the ladder at the time, but doesn’t
matter since I don’t look at orderflow for ideal trade location plays.