You are on page 1of 4

Sentient Trader - Current Cyclic Model 1

Current Cyclic Model chk.csv(daily) as of 2/9/2018

CURRENT CYCLIC MODEL


NOMINAL ACTUAL PHASE STATUS VARIANCE
ΣL X X X
54m 58.9M 5.7y 9.4
18m 21.5M 2.0y 20.0
40w 50.8w 11.1M 30.1
20w 24.4w 7.1M 25.4
80d 89.5d 3.5M 31.6
40d 47.5d 1.8M 39.7
20d 26.4d 1.1M 55.5
10d 13.0d 2.6w 62.5
5d 6.6d 1.1w 65.2

Price is currently in the SECOND 6 day cycle, of the SECOND 13 day cycle, of the SECOND 26 day cycle, of
the SECOND 47 day cycle, of the SECOND 89 day cycle, of the SECOND 24 week cycle, of the SECOND
50 week cycle, of the THIRD 21 month cycle, of the 58 month cycle.

Formal Phasing Analysis (normal analysis: synchronised troughs) reveals that the dominant cycle has a
wavelength of 21.5M, or 618 bars. This is assumed to be the 18m nominal wave, which implies that all waves
will be (13%) longer than nominal.This cycle is overdue for a TROUGH (and an important nest-of-lows). The
underlying trend to this cycle is currently FLAT, likely turning UP. Recent fulfilled projections confirm the trend
is flat, but indicate that it might be turning DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices
to peak in a short while, and then to fall.

The sub-dominant cycle (next wave down from the dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 50.8w, or 355 bars.
This is assumed to be the 40w nominal wave. This cycle is approaching a TROUGH (and a strong nest-of-
lows). This is probably the SECOND of 2 sub-waves. The underlying trend to this cycle is currently slightly
UP, likely slowing down. Recent fulfilled projections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trend
is STRONGLY DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices to rise for a short time,
and then form a peak.

The pre-dominant cycle (next wave up from the dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 58.9M, or 1793 bars.
This is assumed to be the 54m nominal wave. This cycle is overdue for a TROUGH (and a major nest-of-
lows). The underlying trend to this cycle is currently slightly DOWN. Recent fulfilled projections however
indicate that the underlying trend is FLAT, probably turning DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle
will influence prices to peak soon, and then fall.

Σ L is currently DOWN (strength: 1)


The 21.5M CYCLE component of Σ L is currently UP (strength: 1), and accelerating.
The 50.8w CYCLE component of Σ L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles), and accelerating.
The 24.4w CYCLE component of Σ L is currently FLAT, likely TURNING UP.
The 89.5d CYCLE component of Σ L is currently UP (strength: 1), and accelerating.
The 47.5d CYCLE component of Σ L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -3 cycles), and accelerating.
The 26.4d CYCLE component of Σ L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -4 cycles), and accelerating.
The 13.0d CYCLE component of Σ L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -4 cycles), and accelerating.
The 6.6d CYCLE component of Σ L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -8 cycles), and accelerating.

The 89.5d cycle is the ideal trading cycle, with an average potential of 26.1% per half-cycle.
As you have chosen a shorter cycle than this to trade, Sentient Trader is adjusting the trading settings
automatically. If you really want to trade the 47.5d cycle, you should change the leverage, in the Trading
Settings by using the Tools|Trade Settings|Edit menu. To prevent me from changing the trading cycle in
circumstances like this, change the "Allow Sentient Trader to adjust trading cycle" option

continued on next page ...


Sentient Trader - Current Cyclic Model 2

Current Cyclic Model chk.csv(daily) as of 2/9/2018 (continued)

CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:


Price has risen over the past 1 bars (last close 2.85) in an otherwise DOWNWARD price movement, in the
final move of an active downwards FLD pattern. It is possible that the first sequence of the FLD pattern has
already been fulfilled, by the low of 2.53 on 2/9/2018 which would indicate that the second, UPWARD
sequence of the pattern is now in progress.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0) projects a price movement DOWN to a target of -2.95 by about
2/2/2018.
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1) projects a price movement UP to a target of 5.30 by about
4/21/2018. This move would imply a price cross over the 89 day FLD (est: 3/26/2018 & level: 2.74) . This
price move breaks above the 13 day, and the 6 day, and the 21 month VTL implying that the trough yet to be
formed will be the expected trough of the 58 month cycle.

The 47.5d cycle offers a possible trading opportunity as it is the wave behind sequence #2 which indicates a
potential long trade with a profit potential of 305.8% This is considered a valid potential trade, and even
though it might be premature, the trade is being considered.
TRADE ONE: IMMEDIATE FLD. Last close is below the FLD (HIGH) and so Sentient Trader is considering
an IMMEDIATE entry on the FLD (HIGH): Entry level is: 3.19, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop
loss level is set @: 2.47, resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 2.9 to 1. The underlying trend is currently
strongly UP, which is ideal for this trade.
+ An FLD entry action signal (immediate) has been set, using the 6.6d cycle FLD (HIGH) (current level: 3.19).

TRADE TWO: DELAYED FLD. Last median price is below the FLD and so Sentient Trader is considering a
DELAYED entry on the FLD: Entry level is: 2.98, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop loss level is set
@: 2.47, resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 4.6 to 1. The underlying trend is currently strongly UP, which
is ideal for this trade.

+ An FLD entry action signal (delayed) has been set, using the 6.6d cycle FLD (current level: 2.98).

TRADE THREE: IMMEDIATE VTL. A downward VTL of an appropriate cycle exists and so Sentient Trader is
considering an IMMEDIATE entry on the VTL: The VTL is currently above price (above the low of the last
trading bar), and so: Entry level is: 2.9, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop loss level is set @: 2.47,
resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 5.6 to 1. The underlying trend is currently strongly UP, which is ideal
for this trade.

+ A VTL entry action signal has been set, using the 6.6d VTL (current entry level:2.9).

As the wave responsible for carrying price to the target, the 47 day cycle will be adopted as the actual trading
cycle.

OUTSTANDING FLD PROJECTIONS:


58.9M Refined FLD projection created on 5/19/2015 projecting a price fall of 16.7639 to -2.0379 by 2/9/2018.
This is still a valid projection target.
21.5M Refined FLD projection created on 5/10/2017 projecting a price fall of 2.8907 to 2.4185 by 2/9/2018.
This is still a valid projection target. Normal FLD projection created on 6/1/2017 projecting a price fall of
3.0750 to 2.0500 by 11/19/2017. The closest price has got to this projection target so far is 2.53(19.0% short)
on 2/9/2018. Although this projection is overdue, Sentient Trader will not yet retire it.
50.8w: no projection
24.4w: no projection
89.5d: no projection
47.5d Normal FLD projection created on 1/23/2018 projecting a price fall of 0.3383 to 3.6633 by 2/3/2018.
This projection target was reached and exceeded on 1/30/2018.
26.4d Normal FLD projection created on 1/22/2018 projecting a price fall of 0.2475 to 3.8450 by 2/3/2018.
This projection target was reached and exceeded on 1/30/2018.
13.0d: no projection
6.6d: no projection

CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:


Price has risen over the past 1 bars (last close 2.85) in an otherwise DOWNWARD price movement, in the

continued on next page ...


Sentient Trader - Current Cyclic Model 3

Current Cyclic Model chk.csv(daily) as of 2/9/2018 (continued)

final move of an active downwards FLD pattern. It is possible that the first sequence of the FLD pattern has
already been fulfilled, by the low of 2.53 on 2/9/2018 which would indicate that the second, UPWARD
sequence of the pattern is now in progress.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0) projects a price movement DOWN to a target of -2.95 by about
2/2/2018.
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1) projects a price movement UP to a target of 5.30 by about
4/21/2018. This move would imply a price cross over the 89 day FLD (est: 3/26/2018 & level: 2.74) . This
price move breaks above the 13 day, and the 6 day, and the 21 month VTL implying that the trough yet to be
formed will be the expected trough of the 58 month cycle.

Sequence #1 (the 89 day cycle) is most probably already fulfilled (at bar 5800 on 2/9/2018 at 2.53).

The 47.5d cycle offers a possible trading opportunity as it is the wave behind sequence #2 which indicates a
potential long trade with a profit potential of 305.8% This is considered a valid potential trade, and even
though it might be premature, the trade is being considered.
TRADE ONE: IMMEDIATE FLD. Last close is below the FLD (HIGH) and so Sentient Trader is considering
an IMMEDIATE entry on the FLD (HIGH): Entry level is: 3.19, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop
loss level is set @: 2.47, resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 2.9 to 1. The underlying trend is currently
strongly UP, which is ideal for this trade.
+ An FLD entry action signal (immediate) has been set, using the 6.6d cycle FLD (HIGH) (current level: 3.19).

TRADE TWO: DELAYED FLD. Last median price is below the FLD and so Sentient Trader is considering a
DELAYED entry on the FLD: Entry level is: 2.98, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop loss level is set
@: 2.47, resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 4.6 to 1. The underlying trend is currently strongly UP, which
is ideal for this trade.

+ An FLD entry action signal (delayed) has been set, using the 6.6d cycle FLD (current level: 2.98).

TRADE THREE: IMMEDIATE VTL. A downward VTL of an appropriate cycle exists and so Sentient Trader is
considering an IMMEDIATE entry on the VTL: The VTL is currently above price (above the low of the last
trading bar), and so: Entry level is: 2.9, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop loss level is set @: 2.47,
resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 5.6 to 1. The underlying trend is currently strongly UP, which is ideal
for this trade.

+ A VTL entry action signal has been set, using the 6.6d VTL (current entry level:2.9).

As the wave responsible for carrying price to the target, the 47 day cycle will be adopted as the actual trading
cycle.

The 47.5d cycle offers a possible trading opportunity as it is the wave behind sequence #2 which indicates a
potential long trade with a profit potential of 305.8% This is considered a valid potential trade, and even
though it might be premature, the trade is being considered.
TRADE ONE: IMMEDIATE FLD. Last close is below the FLD (HIGH) and so Sentient Trader is considering
an IMMEDIATE entry on the FLD (HIGH): Entry level is: 3.19, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop
loss level is set @: 2.47, resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 2.9 to 1. The underlying trend is currently
strongly UP, which is ideal for this trade.
+ An FLD entry action signal (immediate) has been set, using the 6.6d cycle FLD (HIGH) (current level: 3.19).

TRADE TWO: DELAYED FLD. Last median price is below the FLD and so Sentient Trader is considering a
DELAYED entry on the FLD: Entry level is: 2.98, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop loss level is set
@: 2.47, resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 4.6 to 1. The underlying trend is currently strongly UP, which
is ideal for this trade.

+ An FLD entry action signal (delayed) has been set, using the 6.6d cycle FLD (current level: 2.98).

TRADE THREE: IMMEDIATE VTL. A downward VTL of an appropriate cycle exists and so Sentient Trader is
considering an IMMEDIATE entry on the VTL: The VTL is currently above price (above the low of the last
trading bar), and so: Entry level is: 2.9, profit target level is: 5.304661, and the stop loss level is set @: 2.47,
resulting in a Potential to Risk ratio of: 5.6 to 1. The underlying trend is currently strongly UP, which is ideal

continued on next page ...


Sentient Trader - Current Cyclic Model 4

Current Cyclic Model chk.csv(daily) as of 2/9/2018 (continued)

for this trade.

+ A VTL entry action signal has been set, using the 6.6d VTL (current entry level:2.9).

As the wave responsible for carrying price to the target, the 47 day cycle will be adopted as the actual trading
cycle.

You might also like