Sheet1

t y y(t-1) y(t-2) y(t-3) y(t-4)

1 6
2 4.4 6
3 5 6.1 4.4 6
4 9 6.4 5 4.4 6
5 7.2 6.5 9 5 4.4 6
6 4.8 6.75 7.2 9 5 4.4
7 6 7 4.8 7.2 9 5
8 10 7.2 6 4.8 7.2 9
9 8 7.4 10 6 4.8 7.2
10 5.6 7.5 8 10 6 4.8
11 6.4 7.75 5.6 8 10 6
12 11 8 6.4 5.6 8 10
13 9 8.25 11 6.4 5.6 8
14 6.6 8.4 9 11 6.4 5.6
15 7 8.35 6.6 9 11 6.4
16 10.8 6.1 7 6.6 9 11

r1 0.165154757 1.5
r2 -0.56687342
r3 0.113558147 1
r4 0.983025204
r5 0.118711263
0.5
r6 -0.72204626
r7 -0.00336759 Column B
r8 0.973848135 0
r9 0.097126409 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
r10 -0.79984983 -0.5
r11 -0.082592
r12 0.966416583
-1

Page 1
 Sheet1

y(t-5) y(t-6) y(t-7) y(t-8) y(t-8) y(t-9) y(t-10)

6
4.4 6
5 4.4 6
9 5 4.4 6
7.2 9 5 4.4 6
4.8 7.2 9 5 4.4 6
6 4.8 7.2 9 5 4.4 6
10 6 4.8 7.2 9 5 4.4
8 10 6 4.8 7.2 9 5
5.6 8 10 6 4.8 7.2 9
6.4 5.6 8 10 6 4.8 7.2

Column B

12 14

Page 2
 Sheet1

y(t-11)

12

10

6 y

2
6
4.4 0
5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
9

Page 3
 Sheet2

month yt y(t-1) y(t-2) y(t-3) y(t-4)

Jan 1 82.9
Feb 2 87.3 82.9
March 3 99.4 87.3 82.9
April 4 104.8 99.4 87.3 82.9
May 5 107.2 104.8 99.4 87.3 82.9
June 6 121.6 107.2 104.8 99.4 87.3
July 7 118.6 121.6 107.2 104.8 99.4
Aug 8 114.1 118.6 121.6 107.2 104.8
September 9 123 114.1 118.6 121.6 107.2
October 10 127.3 123 114.1 118.6 121.6

r1 0.901366972
r2 0.805409982
r3 0.884784518
r4 0.705700837
r5 0.367313511
r6 0.868870494

140

R² = 0.887257448168395
120

100

80
yt
Linear (yt)
60 Exponentia

40
f(x) = 83.9559197304803 exp( 0.0451321504208482 x )
R² = 0.871843650270405
20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Page 4
 Sheet2

y(t-5) y(t-6)
140

120

82.9 100
87.3 82.9
99.4 87.3 80
104.8 99.4
107.2 104.8
60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6

140

120

100

80
yt
Linear (yt)
60
Exponential (yt)
f(x) = 19.8913282447639 ln(x) + 78.5753171564616
R² = 0.923672502180378
40
0.0451321504208482 x )
20

0
10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Page 5
 Sheet2

yt

4 6 8 10 12

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6
yt
0.5
Logarithmic (yt)
78.5753171564616 0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

8 10 12 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Page 6
 Sheet2

140

120 f(x) = 80.3437018915473 x^0.193456724126366

R² = 0.93898575532485
100

80

Column C 60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10
3 4 5 6 7

Page 7
 Sheet2

5473 x^0.193456724126366
2485

yt
Power (yt)

6 8 10 12

Page 8
 Sheet3

t y 4th mean 2th mean seasonal component

1 6
2 4.4
3 5 6.1 6.25 -1.25
4 9 6.4 6.45 2.55
5 7.2 6.5 6.625 0.575
6 4.8 6.75 6.875 -2.075
7 6 7 7.1 -1.1
8 10 7.2 7.3 2.7
9 8 7.4 7.45 0.55
10 5.6 7.5 7.625 -2.025
11 6.4 7.75 7.875 -1.475
12 11 8 8.125 2.875
13 9 8.25 8.325 0.675000000000001
14 6.6 8.4 8.375 -1.775
15 7 8.35
16 10.8

t y si T+E T(t) T(t)+si

1 6 0.58125 5.41875 5.91 6.49125
2 4.4 -1.97708 6.37708 6.1 4.12292
3 5 -1.294 6.294 6.29 4.996
4 9 2.689 6.311 6.48 9.169
5 7.2 0.58125 6.61875 6.67 7.25125
6 4.8 -1.97708 6.77708 6.86 4.88292
7 6 -1.294 7.294 7.05 5.756
8 10 2.689 7.311 7.24 9.929
9 8 0.58125 7.41875 7.43 8.01125
10 5.6 -1.97708 7.57708 7.62 5.64292
11 6.4 -1.294 7.694 7.81 6.516
12 11 2.689 8.311 8 10.689
13 9 0.58125 8.41875 8.19 8.77125
14 6.6 -1.97708 8.57708 8.38 6.40292
15 7 -1.294 8.294 8.57 7.276
16 10.8 2.689 8.111 8.76 11.449

MEAN Y 7.3

Page 9
 Sheet3

1 season 2 season 3 season 4 season

-1.25 2.55
0.575 -2.075 -1.1 2.7
0.55 -2.025 -1.475 2.875
0.675 -1.775

SI MEAN 0.6 -1.95833333 -1.275 2.708333333

CORRECTED SI 0.58125 -1.97708 -1.294 2.689

sum 0.075

epsileon ESS square TSS square ESS 1.121445956

-0.49125 0.2413265625 1.69 TSS 67.12
0.27708 0.0767733264 8.41 R 0.983291926
0.004 1.6E-05 5.29
-0.169 0.028561 2.89
-0.05125 0.0026265625 0.01
-0.08292 0.0068757264 6.25
0.244 0.059536 1.69
0.071 0.005041 7.29
-0.01125 0.0001265625 0.49
-0.04292 0.0018421264 2.89
-0.116 0.013456 0.81
0.311 0.096721 13.69
0.22875 0.0523265625 2.89
0.19708 0.0388405264 0.49
-0.276 0.076176 0.09
-0.649 0.421201 12.25

Page 10
 Sheet3

10

9
f(x) = 0.186433352941176 x + 5.715524
8 R² = 0.915003495645295
7

5 T+E
Linear (T+E)
4

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Page 11
 Sheet3

T+E
Linear (T+E)

16 18

Page 12