Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

Catanauan, Quezon

Contrasting Profiles of Low-Performing Mathematics Students in

Public and Private Schools in the Philippines: Insights from Machine
Learning
Allan B. I. Bernardo 1,*, Macario O. Cordel II 2, Minie Rose C. Lapinid 3, Jude Michael M. Teves ,
Sashmir A. Yap and Unisse C. Chua

Abstract: Filipino students performed poorly in the 2018 Programme for International Student As-

sessment (PISA) mathematics assessment, with more than 50% obtaining scores below the lowest

proficiency level. Students from public schools also performed worse compared to their private school

counterparts. We used machine learning approaches, specifically binary classification meth- ods, to

model the variables that best identified the poor performing students (below Level 1) vs. better

performing students (Levels 1 to 6) using the PISA data from a nationally representative sam- ple of 15-

year-old Filipino students. We analyzed data from students in private and public schools separately.

Several binary classification methods were applied, and the best classification model for both private

and public school groups was the Random Forest classifier. The ten variables with the highest impact on

the model were identified for the private and public school groups. Five variables were similarly

important in the private and public school models. However, there were other dis- tinct variables that

relate to students' motivations, family and school experiences that were im- portant in identifying the

poor performing students in each school type. The results are discussed in relation to the social and

social cognitive experiences of students that relate to socioeconomic contexts that differ between public

and private schools.

Keywords: mathematics achievement; machine learning, Philippines; public vs. private schools; school

type; socioeconomic differences; PISA

 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

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I. Introduction

Filipino students were among the lowest performing groups of students among all the

participating countries in the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). In

mathematics, less than 20% of students demonstrated the minimum proficiency level (Level 2), while

more than 50% showed very low proficiency (below Level 1). Scoring below the lowest level of

proficiency in the PISA, these Filipino students have been clearly left behind in terms of mathematics

education; more than half of this age group of Filipino students have inadequate mathematical skill

compared to their peers in other parts of the world. The poor performance in mathematics also varied in

degree between the students in public and private schools, where the means were 343 and 395,

respectively (Department of Education 2019)

The study aims to identify the factors (personal and contextual) that differentiate the lowest-

performing students from the other Filipino students in mathematics in public and private schools in the

Philippines. Previous studies have shown that public and private schools in the Philippines have very

different environments for learning resources (Trinidad 2020) and for supporting student motivation and

engagement (Bernardo et al. 2015), and we explore whether different factors identify low-performing

students in each type of school. We use a range of machine learning approaches to analyze the

Philippines 2018 PISA data from the student questionnaire and the school questionnaire and analyze the

data of students from public and private schools separately. Typical education research in the

Philippines studies investigate predictors of achievement at one level of analysis, the machine learning

approach allows researchers to consider factors at the student level, their family, the instructional

experiences in school, and other school characteristics, and thus reveal a more complex set of factors

that identify the students that are left behind in mathematics education in the two types of school in the

Philippines.
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

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1.1. Filipino Students' Mathematics Proficiency in PISA 2018

Students' mathematics proficiency in the PISA assessment relates to the students' ca- pacity to

formulate, use, and interpret mathematics in different contexts, including famil- iar personal experiences

and in broader and more abstract contexts of work, society, and science. Students who are assessed to

have good mathematics proficiency are able "to rea son mathematically and use mathematical concepts,

procedures, facts and tools to de- scribe, explain and predict phenomena" (OECD 2019a, p. 104). The

test items were given in combinations of the different mathematical processes, mathematical content,

and con texts. The mathematical processes included formulating situations mathematically, em- ploying

mathematical concepts, facts, procedures and reasoning, and interpreting, apply- ing, and evaluating

mathematical outcomes. Underlying these mathematical processes were fundamental mathematical

capabilities such as understanding a problem situation, its tasks, and questions; being able to present,

explain and justify a solution; translating and representing the problem and its quantities into a

mathematical form, and utilizing mathematical content knowledge and tools to solve the problem and to

communicate results (OECD 2019a). Six proficiency levels were described to represent the range of

mathematics skills, knowledge, and understanding in the 2018 PISA mathematics assessment; the same

six levels have been used since mathematics became a focal area of assessment in 2002 (OECD 2019a).

Level 2 is considered as the minimum proficiency standard, and less than 20% of Filipino students

attained Level 2 proficiency or better. This means that an overwhelming majority of Filipino students

score below standard; more specifically, 27% scored at Level 1 proficiency and 54% scored below

Level 1 (OECD 2019a). According to the PISA math- ematics proficiency guide, Level 1 means: "...

students can answer questions involving familiar contexts where all relevant information is present and

the questions are clearly defined. They are able to identify information and to carry out routine

procedures accord- ing to direct instructions in explicit situations. They can perform actions that are

almost always obvious and follow immediately from the given stimuli" (OECD 2019a, p. 105). So less

than 3 of every 10 15-year-old Filipino students can do math only at that level, and more than half of
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

Catanauan, Quezon

these students cannot even do those actions.

While the results suggest that most Filipino high school students are not learning what they are

supposed to i to in mathematics, the situation seems to be worse for the students in Philippine high

schools. On average, private school students' scores were at Level 1 proficiency, while those from public

schools were below Level 1. While about 3 of every 10 private school students scored below Level 1

proficiency in mathematics, 6 out of every 10 public school students scored below Level 1.

In a sense, the results are not surprising as the Philippines had been consistently per- forming

poorly in mathematics in the global assessments. It had not been able to improve from the bottom 5

ranks since it joined Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) in 1999 (Mullis et al. 2004).

However, the Philippine government chose to participate in PISA 2018 with the aim of gaining

knowledge from the international large-scale assess- ment to help improve the current educational

system (National Economic Development Authority 2020). Indeed, the PISA provides data on a wide

range of variables that can be studied as possible predictors of successful (or unsuccessful) learning in

the different domains. These variables might be interacting in ways that predict either poor or good

mathematics achievement. In the next section, we consider the possible types of variables known to be

associated with students' mathematics learning.

1.2. Predictors of Mathematics Learning and Achievement

Research has revealed many important predictors of mathematics learning and achievement, and

most of the predictors can be classified under one of five broad catego ries, student factors, family

factors, teacher factors, classroom and school factors, and pol- icy factors (Maamin et al. 2021). We will

not attempt a comprehensive review of such fac tors but refer to some that were measured in the PISA

2018 questionnaire and that were included in the analysis for the current study; these factors fall under

the first four broad categories, as no policy related factors were included in the student questionnaire of

PISA Beyond the typical student factors such as gender, cognitive abilities, and metacog nitive (Desoete
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

Catanauan, Quezon

and De Craene 2019; Lindberg et al. 2010), research has confirmed the im- portance of a range of non-

cognitive social psychological factors predictors of student ac- ademic success (Lindberg et al. 2010;

Kim and Choi 2021). In mathematics achievement, these factors include motivation (Levpušček et al.

2013; Saw and Chang 2018), goal orien- tations (Dela Rosa and Bernardo 2013), attitudes (Gjicali and

Lipnevich 2021), self-beliefs (Damrongpanit 2019; Szumski and Karwowski 2019) and academic

emotions (Villavi- cencio and Bernardo 2013, 2016). There are more specific student factors that relate

to these social psychological factors such as the students' educational and career aspirations; stu dents

who have higher career aspirations that also require higher educational qualifica- tions showing stronger

motivations related to achieving in mathematics (Watt et al. 2019; Webster and Fisher 2000). On the

other hand, poor motivation in learning is associated with students' absenteeism and tardiness, which are

also associated with lower mathe- matics achievement (Vesić et al. 2021; Gottfried and Ansari 2022).

Family factors that relate to students' mathematics achievement include factors re- lated to the

family's socioeconomic background, which relates to parents' education and occupation, as well as the

educational resources available in the home (Lam and Zhou 2021; Lombardi and Dearing 2021; Marks

and Pokropek 2019). The types of parental sup- port for the students' learning are also important

predictors of students' achievement (Bernardo et al. 2015; Soenens et al. 2007); parental support also

relates to the quality of parent-child relationship (Christenson and Havsy 2004), parental involvement in

their children's learning in mathematics (Hyde et al. 2006; Jay et al. 2018) and expectations of their

children's achievement (West et al. 1998).

Teachers' expectations of students also play an important role in students' achieve- ment in

mathematics (Szumski and Karwowski 2019), as do other social and interpersonal teacher factors.

Teacher characteristics relate to instructional quality, and both predict higher student achievement in

mathematics (Toropova et al. 2019; Wayne and Youngs 2003; Wedel 2021). Teacher characteristics

such as teacher preparation (Boyd et al. 2009;

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Fung et al. 2017), continuing professional development (Desimone 2013; Harris and Sass 2011),

mathematical knowledge (Baumert et al. 2010), and teachers' self-efficacy (Fung et al. 2017; Zee et al.

2018) are some of the qualities that relate to their instructional perfor mance.

Some teacher factors are also shaped by school-level factors such as school policies on class

sizes (Woessmann and West 2006) and support for teachers' continuing professional development

(Desimone 2013). However, other important aspects of the school en- vironment also play an important

role in predicting student achievement in mathematics. The school environment can influence teachers'

and students behavior in the teach- ing and leaming process and eventually students' achievement

(Trinidad 2020). A school culture that promotes shared values and norms for learning, high academic

standards (Jesse et al. 2004), strong personal bonds between teachers and students showing genuine

concern to students for academic success (Mateos et al. 2021) are said to be important pre- dictors of

student achievement. Other important predictors include orderly and highly structured schools, classes

where rules and procedures are consistently and reasonably enforced (Ilg and Massucci 2003; Pressley

et al. 2004), and school environment that en courages student participation in after-class activities

(Wigfield et al. 2006).

However, perhaps one of the most important school factors that predict student achievement

relates to the schools' learning resources (Levpušček et al. 2013; Caponera and Losito 2016). In the

Philippines, for example, material constraints and lower teacher resources are associated with lower

student attention, lower student respect, more con- cerns with attendance, bullying, other problematic

student behaviors, and student achievement (Trinidad 2020). These resource constraints distinguish the

school environ- ments in public and private schools in the Philippines (Lockheed and Jimenez 1994) and

also other countries (OECD 2019b), and more importantly, they are associated with achievement gaps

(Braun et al. 2006; Carbonaro and Covay 2010). Interestingly, one study showed that school type

differences were more pronounced in mathematics achievement. compared to other subjects (Lubienski

and Lubienski 2006). Other studies found that the achievement gap between private and public schools
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

Catanauan, Quezon

in the Philippines is also associated with different levels of student motivations and perceived support

from parents and teachers (Bernardo et al. 2015) and the higher student selectivity in private schools

(Yamauchi 2005).

1.3. The Current Study

The various student, family, teacher, and school factors are also assumed to be inter- connected

in predicting students' achievement in mathematics. For example, individual students' career aspirations

are related to their motivational beliefs about math, which are also related to how they perceive their

classroom environment (Lazarides et al. 2020). Stu- dents self-perceptions also interact with the school's

social context in influencing stu- dents' engagement (Wang and Eccles 2013; Fall and Roberts 2012),

and their self-beliefs also interact with their socioeconomic status in influencing their mathematics

achieve- ment (Bernardo 2021). Thus it is important to try to explore a range of predictors of stu- dents'

mathematics achievement to see how they might be working together.

In the current study, we wanted to study the factors that distinguish the Filipino students who

perform poorly in the PISA 2018 mathematics assessment from those who met the minimum

performance standards. The PISA 2018 obtained self-report data on a wide range of factors-the students,

their families, teachers, classes, and schools-that are pos sible predictors of students' proficiency in

mathematics. Our objective was to identify the models that best identifies the Filipino students who

performed poorly in mathematics using machine learning approaches, and we wanted to identify the

model for public school students and for private school students. For this purpose, trained and evalu-

ated different machine learning models on the PH data to determine the best classifier for classifying

poor and better performing students. Eighty percent of the data were used to iteratively adjust the

model's parameters during the training phase. Training iterations were terminated based on any of the

following conditions: (1) the training performance converges and is less than a preset value, (ii) the

validation performance worsens, or (iii) the validation performance does not improve. Each trained
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

Catanauan, Quezon

model was evaluated using Region of Convergence (RoC and ROC-AUC) scores to determine how well

it separates the two categories, standard metrics, e.g., average Fl-score to measure its prediction per-

formance, and cross validation to demonstrate its performance on unseen data. By explor ing models for

identifying poor performing students in mathematics in public and private schools, we hope to identify

variables that will point to poor learners' vulnerabilities that could be the target of interventions.

Research Question/s:

1. What personal and contextual factors differentiate the lowest-performing Filipino students in
mathematics from other students in public and private schools in the Philippines?

2. Using machine learning approaches, what models best identify the factors distinguishing Filipino
students who performed poorly in the PISA 2018 mathematics assessment from those who met the
minimum performance standards?
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

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Contrasting Profiles of Low-Performing Mathematics Students in Public and

Private Schools in the Philippines: Insights from Machine Learning

Jay Jay R. Ragoro

Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Catanauan Inc.

College of Education

Allan A. Talain
Professor

April 22, 2024

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II. Review of Related Literature

This Review of Related Literature (RRL) provides an in-depth analysis of the topics relevant to

the performance of Filipino students in mathematics. This RRL will explore three themes related to how

Filipino students perform in mathematics, especially those who are finding it hard. The first topic,

Mathematics Performance of Filipino Students, gives a general picture of how well Filipino students are

doing in mathematics, including their successes and problems. The second topic, Personal and

Contextual Factors that Influence Lowest-Performing Filipino Students in Mathematics, goes deeper

into the many personal and surrounding factors that make it harder for some Filipino students to do well

in mathematics. These factors can be anything from family income, students attitude towards

mathematics, to how good the mathematics teaching is. The last topic, Application of Machine Learning

in Identifying Low-Performing Filipino Students in Mathematics, talks about how machine learning, a

type of computer technology, can be used to spot students who are not doing well in mathematics. This

topic points out how new technologies can help make testing and teaching strategies better. Taken

together, these topics give a full view of the complex issue of mathematics performance among Filipino

students. This RRL aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing

mathematics performance among Filipino students and the role of machine learning in identifying and

addressing these factors.

Mathematics Performance of Filipino Students

Mathematics is an incredibly important subject in our lives. Without a grasp of mathematics, it

would be difficult to accomplish much in the world. While mathematics is recognized globally, it may

not always seem immediately useful in our local contexts. Throughout history, mathematics has been

considered a vital part of formal education, and it emerged as a practical solution to everyday problems.

Ancient scholars played a significant role in its development. Mathematics encompasses a body of
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knowledge that contributes to science and technology. What makes mathematics fascinating is its unique

symbols, language, terms, and applications. It has become an integral part of our daily lives (Acharya,

2017).

Mathematics is known as the foundation of learning in various subjects, including arts and

sciences. It has wide-ranging applications in different fields, such as fashion, sports, technology, and

economics. In today's digital age, the importance of mathematics has become even more prominent. It is

not just about calculations; it helps us understand patterns, relationships, and structures to solve complex

real-world problems. Mathematics is essential for people of all ages to achieve success in life (Andaya,

2014)

In the Philippines, mathematics is a general education topic taught in primary and higher

education. Its ideas should be understood and appreciated by learners as they use suitable technology to

problem solving, critical thinking, communication, reasoning, connection-making, representation-

making, and decision-making in real-world scenarios. The report published in 2013 indicated that

Filipino students' performance in national and international surveys on mathematics and science

competencies lags behind that of its neighboring countries, including Singapore, South Korea, Hong

Kong, Chinese Taipei, and Japan. The Philippines' participation in TIMSS confirmed this appalling

condition. There are difficulties in learning and understanding mathematics that even college students

face (Guinocor et al.,2020).

According to Lapinid et al.(2020), in the 2018 PISA mathematics evaluation, Filipino students

exhibited poor performance, with over half of them scoring beneath the minimum proficiency level.

Filipino students ranked among the lowest-performing groups in the 2018 Programme for International

Student Assessment (PISA) across all participating countries. In the field of mathematics, less than 20%

of students demonstrated the minimum proficiency level (Level 2), while over 50% exhibited very low

proficiency (below Level 1). This indicates a significant disparity in mathematics education, with more
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

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than half of Filipino students lacking adequate mathematical skills compared to their global counterparts.

The discrepancy in performance was also evident between students attending public and private schools,

with mean scores of 343 and 395, respectively. These findings underscore the urgent need to address the

shortcomings in mathematics education in the Philippines and ensure that students receive a high-quality

education in this subject. According to Acharya (2017), there are multiple factors that mix together and

negatively affect students' performance in mathematics.

Personal and Contextual Factors that Influence Lowest-Performing Filipino Students in Mathematics

According to Andaya (2014), low academic performance of students in mathematics can be

attributed to four main factors: the individual characteristics of the student, the way the teacher instructs,

the management of the classroom, and the evaluation methods used.

Poor-performing Filipino students in mathematics can be identified based on their

socioeconomic conditions and their non-cognitive and metacognitive behavior. These students, whether

in public or private schools, usually don't have cellphones with internet access and their parents have

low social status. They also don't expect to pursue vocational degrees and have underdeveloped critical

thinking skills. Specifically, low-performing private school students in math aspire to have higher

occupational status than their parents, receive emotional support from their parents, have a positive

mindset towards growth, and value cooperation. On the other hand, their counterparts in public schools

can be recognized by their lack of motivation and persistence, low aspirations for education and future

careers, limited appreciation for education, high absenteeism, grade repetition, and yet they take pride in

their work (Lapinid et al., 2022).

Attitude Towards Mathematics As a Subject. The study of Alpacion et al. (2014) revealed that

attitude towards mathematics had a significant impact on academic performance. Students with a

positive attitude towards the subject tended to perform well. Therefore, improving performance in

mathematics can be achieved by fostering a positive attitude towards the subject. Parents, teachers, and
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other stakeholders have a responsibility to support students in developing a positive attitude towards

mathematics. In a study conducted by Capuno et al. (2019) in a public national high school in Mandaue

City, Cebu, Philippines, Grade 9 students were surveyed about their attitudes towards mathematics. The

findings showed that the students had positive views about the importance of mathematics, but they felt

neutral about their self-confidence, enjoyment, and motivation in the subject. The study also found that

there was a slight positive relationship between attitudes and academic performance in terms of self-

confidence, enjoyment, and motivation. However, there was a weak positive relationship between the

value students placed on mathematics and their actual performance in the subject.

Fear/Anxiety in Learning Mathematics. According to the study of Flores (2019), students have

developed a negative feeling towards mathematics. The study found that students experience high levels

of anxiety when it comes to mathematics, and this significantly impacts their performance in the subject.

A significant number of students dislike mathematics and lack confidence in their abilities. They tend to

avoid the subject due to feelings of tension and fear, which is known as math anxiety. It is not surprising

that math anxiety is linked to poor performance in mathematics throughout a student's academic journey,

from elementary school to college. Students with high levels of math anxiety generally achieve lower

grades in math compared to their peers who experience less math anxiety.

Teacher Factor. One reason for the low pass rate in secondary level mathematics is the influence

of teachers. Teachers are individuals who provide education to students and motivate them in their

learning activities. The education of children greatly depends on the role of teachers in teaching and

learning. A positive attitude from teachers can create a positive direction for students when it comes to

learning mathematics (Acharya, 2017).

Environmental Factors. According to Acharya (2017), teachers at the school employ

conventional teaching methods and fail to address the individual needs and interests of students in the

classroom. The classroom lacks a child-friendly environment, and the school has limited resources.
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Additionally, due to a large number of students, the teacher is unable to implement student-centered

teaching and learning approaches, despite their willingness to do so. The school is constrained by

traditional teaching methods.

Economic Status. The economic status of parents is a significant factor that influences their

children's education, particularly in the study of mathematics. When parents have a favorable economic

condition, their children's education tends to be better as they can afford additional tutoring at home.

However, this advantage is not available to families with limited financial resources (Acharya, 2017).

Morilla et al. (2020) suggests that employing machine learning models can contribute to

improving students' learning outcomes. The accurate prediction of students' performance by machine

learning models, along with the consideration of other factors that influence performance, calls for

further investigation and research.

Application of Machine Learning in Identifying Low-Performing Filipino Students in Mathematics.

Machine learning is a technology that allows computer programs to learn from data. It also paves

the way for new advancements in artificial intelligence, where computers are programmed to solve

problems using examples or past experiences (Alpaydin, 2021). In education, machine learning can be

used to help teachers, predict how well students will perform, assess students, and so on (Kučak et

al.,2018).

The study of Morilla et al. (2020) highlights the application of machine learning algorithms in

predicting the academic performance of students, specifically in the subject of Mathematics in the

Modern World (MMW). The study compares the performance of machine learning models such as

multiple linear regression, J48 decision tree, and Naïve Bayes algorithms in predicting students'

academic performance. The results indicate that the Naïve Bayes algorithm outperforms the other

algorithms in predicting students' performance in MMW.

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In a study by Lapinid et al. (2018), researchers used machine learning to find out why some

Filipino students struggle in mathematics. They discovered that limited resources, lack of motivation,

and difficulties in social interactions were common factors among these students. Furthermore, the study

also found that the specific challenges varied between students in public and private schools.
 Manuel S. Enverga University Foundation Inc.

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