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Chapter 3 GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL COOLING: Challenges and future

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Chapter 3
GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL COOLING:
Challenges and future prospects
Introduction
3.1. Causes of global climate change
3.2. The climate has always changed
3.3. The radiation balance of the Earth in the last millions of years
3.4. Influence of ice ages on climate
3.5. Natural climate change in recent centuries
3.6. The main climatic feature of the last decades
3.7. The growth air temperature
3.8. The imbalance of the climate and the growing number of hazardous hydro-
meteorological phenomena
3.9. Not current but future climate changes are dangerous
3.10. Global climate change forecasts
Conclusion
References
 "One must know the past
in order to understand the present
and foresee the future."

V. Belinsky

Chapter 3

GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL COOLING:

CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

Introduction

In the modern world, humanity is increasingly concerned about the issue of

global climate change on the Earth. Climate change issues, especially human
impact on the Earth's climate system, are a topic that has been very actively
discussed in the broadest circles in recent years. There are still a lot of not fully
explored "white spots" in it.
Climate change has many different natural causes that act differently at
different time scales. For hundreds of millions of years, the location of the
continents is important, for hundreds of thousands of years – the change in the
Earth's orbit, for hundreds of years – the activity of the Sun and ocean cycles.
In recent decades, this picture has been overlaid by the impact on the human
climate system, which continues to increase in the twenty-first century. Global
climate change can lead to dangerous consequences for all of humanity.
3.1. Causes of global climate change

Everyone is talking about climate change these days – scientists, politicians,

and businesspeople. This is written in newspapers and magazines, there are
disputes on the Internet, and well-known experts speak on television.
It is not easy to understand the essence of the problem, so opposite are the
views and judgments. Warming or cooling? What is the cause of climate change:
human activity or natural processes?
The climate of the planet is formed both by the Sun and all the environments
of our planet: the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, volcanoes, ice cover, etc.,
which are in constant interaction [12]. At the same time, they are increasingly
affected by human economic activity, which changes the very surface of the Earth
and pollutes all the environments around us [2].
Considering the role of each environment, with all its interactions with its
"neighbors", would probably require the creation of a training course designed for
several years of study. Therefore, as the first experience of presenting the subject
"climate change", we offer a brief consideration of only the main factors, moving
from past geological epochs to the present.

3.2. The climate has always changed

The climate on the Earth has changed at all times, including long before
human activity began to play a role in this. In the geological history of the Earth,
there were also warmer periods than in the last millions of years. 500 million years
ago it was 7 °C warmer, and 300 million years ago it was 1 °C colder than in the
60-90-ies of the last century. Covering the land with ice greatly lowered the
temperature of the entire planet. This is established by the marks that the ice leaves
on the rocks.
In addition, analysis of geological samples, ocean sediments, and other data
shows that warm periods coincide with periods of high atmospheric CO2 content.
Looking at the causes of such strong climate changes over half a billion years,
scientists analyze all sorts of geological, astronomical, biological, geomagnetic and
other factors. Speaking in general about the situation for hundreds of millions of
years, it is necessary to emphasize the dominant role of the location of land relative
to the poles and equator – tectonic processes and continental drift. Most of the
time, the Polar Regions were free of land, and there were no ice sheets that
strongly reflected solar radiation. As a result, it was much warmer on average than
it is now.
A more detailed examination of the last 60 million years shows that the
current ice cover of Antarctica began about 40 million years ago, and the
glaciations of Greenland – less than 10 million years ago. Both of these processes
were accompanied by a very significant decrease in temperature, as a result of
which it approached the modern level. Climate change is measured from the
situation observed in 1961-1990. Therefore, we can say that in the last millions of
years of life, the dinosaurs were 8-10 °C warmer than in the 1960-1990s, and 52
million years ago, when India joined with Eurasia in one continent, it was even
hotter – 12 °C warmer than in the second half of the last century [1].
The concentration of CO2 also varied widely: 40-60 million years ago it was
from 300 to 1000 ppm (parts per million), and in the last 20 million years it was on
average 200-400 ppm.
Approximately 60 million years ago, the well-known and actively discussed
extinction of the dinosaurs occurred. Various reasons are put forward –
astronomical, for example: the fall of a giant meteorite in the area of the current
Caribbean Sea, after which the Earth was overshadowed by dust for some time and
it became too cold for the dinosaurs. Or biological: this or that competition with
more "perfect" living organisms, etc.
About 55 million years ago, there was a "sharp" spike in temperature. Many
scientists explain it by thawing methane hydrates (snow-like methane compounds
found on the bottom of seas and oceans). Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, and
its emissions lead to higher temperatures. The warming was very strong. On the
one hand, in the scale of millions of years, it was very short, about 70 thousand
years. On the other hand, 70 thousand years is a very long time, if we consider it
on the scale of XX-XXI centuries. Then everything returned to a state determined
by other factors, in particular, the location of the continents and the glaciations of
the land.

3.3. The radiation balance of the Earth in the last millions of years

The main factor of climate change in the last millions of years was and still is
the radiation balance of the Earth – the difference between incoming solar
radiation and the radiation of our planet into space.
The Earth's radiation balance was constantly changing, but the reasons for the
changes were different. For each specific case – ice ages, temperature fluctuations
in the past Millennium, the current situation – it is necessary to establish their own
reasons. There are three main factors that change the Earth's radiation balance [9].
1. Changes in incoming solar radiation (insolation) associated with changes
in the Earth's orbit and/or the Sun's luminosity.
2. Change in the albedo – the proportion of solar radiation that is reflected
by the Earth back into space. The albedo depends on many factors, for example,
what part of the planet is covered with white snow and ice; from the pollution of
the atmosphere and cloud cover by aerosols (small solid and liquid particles). Such
particles emit volcanoes, create dust storms, but in our time, the influence of man
is very great, throwing dust, soot and other particles into the atmosphere. This
effect is especially noticeable when soot particles settle on white snow or ice,
reducing the albedo. Cloud cover also reflects solar radiation. Here, the amount of
clouds and the degree of their whiteness (how much they are polluted by dust, soot,
sea salt, etc.) are significant.
Albedo is also affected by the above-mentioned tectonic processes and
continental drift, but these are very slow processes, the influence of which is great
only when considering millions of years. Hundreds of millions of years ago, there
were periods on the Earth when Antarctica was free of ice. It was dark and
reflected little sunlight, which affected the climate in the direction of warming. If
there were an ocean in place of Antarctica now, the Earth's ice cover would be
smaller and the climate warmer. If the land were concentrated at the poles, the area
of glaciations of the planet would be larger, and the climate would be much colder.
3. Changes in the infrared radiation emitted by the Earth back into
Space. Our planet, like any heated body, emits infrared radiation. Only about 10%
of this radiation goes into space, the remaining 90% is absorbed by the gases that
make up the Earth's atmosphere. This effect was described by scientists at the
beginning of the XIX century, and an analogy was noticed with a greenhouse, the
film of which passes sunlight, but does not release heat. Therefore, the effect itself
was called greenhouse, and the corresponding gases-greenhouse. The main
components of the Earth's atmosphere, nitrogen and oxygen, do not absorb infrared
radiation, such are the properties of their molecules. It absorbs the Earth's thermal
radiation mainly water vapor, followed by carbon dioxide, methane, and in recent
years, new gases created by man have been added: Freon, fluorinated
hydrocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and so on.
The greenhouse effect is very important for the planet, without it, the average
air temperature at the Earth's surface would not be about +14 (as it is now), but -19
°C, and life would be very difficult. Sometimes people ask whether the planet is in
danger of a "greenhouse catastrophe", whether the Earth will turn into Venus,
densely covered with clouds and very hot. This will not happen, since the
characteristics of the Earth's infrared radiation absorption are such that even a very
strong increase in water vapor and CO2 content will not lead to an increase in the
greenhouse effect above a certain limit. Therefore, life on the planet is not
threatened by a catastrophe, although changes can be very large.
Now we are talking about the fact that man has increased the greenhouse
effect, although not much, by a few percent, but significantly. Man has increased
the atmospheric content of CO2 and methane (as well as dust, soot, and other
substances). According to scientists, even an increase in the greenhouse effect by
2-3 °C will lead to big problems, because this is not a smooth and pleasant
warming, but an increase in the instability (extreme) of the climate [16].

3.4. Influence of ice ages on climate

The main cause of climate change in the last hundreds of thousands of years is
the change in the Earth's orbit, which is responsible for the arrival and departure of
ice ages lasting tens of thousands of years.
Precession with a periodicity of 19-23 thousand years shifts the seasons, that
is, it strongly changes the latitudinal and seasonal distribution of solar insolation.
The tilt (inclination) of the Earth's axis varies between 22° and 24.5°
(currently 23.5°) with two close periods lasting about 41 thousand years. The tilt of
the orbit does not affect the overall insolation, but the greater it is, the greater the
difference between the warm and cold seasons at high latitudes.
The eccentricity of the Earth's orbit around the Sun has longer periods:
approximately 400 and 100 thousand years. By themselves, they have little effect,
since in General changes in the distance between the Sun and the Earth are small,
but they interact with seasonal effects. When the eccentricity is small (the Earth's
orbit is close to circular), as it was about 400 thousand years ago and will be for
the next 100 thousand years, the seasonal changes in insolation caused by
precession are smaller than when the eccentricity is larger (the Earth's orbit is a
more elongated ellipse).
Over the past million years, ice ages have been initiated by summer insolation
minimums in the high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere, when winter snow
persists throughout the year and accumulates into the ice sheets of the Northern
hemisphere. White snow and ice reflect solar radiation, and it gets even colder. At
the same time, the ocean level can fall by almost 100 m [6]. It was during this
period that ancient people moved from Eurasia to America, probably mostly by
land, and partly by a narrow strait covered with ice.
 On the other hand, the Southern hemisphere was little affected by ice ages.
Antarctica has been permanently covered in ice and snow for the past millions of
years, and changes in the Earth's orbit are too weak to change that.
Carbon dioxide also plays an important role in ice ages, although it is not the
cause of them. In Antarctica, scientists were able to sample ice along the entire
thickness of the ice sheet, which is almost 4 km, or about a million years of snow
accumulation. In the snow that turned to ice, there are air bubbles that can be
analyzed and determined the composition of the air for hundreds of thousands of
years. The concentration of CO2 in cold glacial times was low – 160-190 ppm, and
in warm interglacial periods – high, up to 300 ppm. Based on the analysis of
oxygen isotopes, scientists have restored the temperature of the past: in the last
million years, our planet was sometimes warmer than it is now.
The CO2 content in the atmosphere follows temperature changes in Antarctica
with a delay of several centuries. Thus, the Earth's biosphere reacts to changes in
temperature. At the same time, during several thousand years at the beginning and
end of the ice age, CO2 accelerates this process. When it gets colder, the CO2
content drops, the greenhouse effect weakens, and it gets even colder. At the end of
the ice age, it becomes warmer, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is
higher, and the temperature increases faster due to the increased greenhouse effect.
The last ice age began about 110, and ended 13 thousand years ago.
Approximately 5-7 thousand years ago, the climate was somewhat warmer and
wetter than it is now – the peak of the interglacial period (the so-called Holocene
optimum) was passed. Probably, such conditions were favorable for ancient man
and the development of civilization, but now man has different economic
conditions, different numbers and settlement on the planet, different life
expectancy and standards. Therefore, it would be a mistake to think that a "similar"
warming of a couple of degrees will be a boon for our modern civilization. Then,
about 5 thousand years ago, the climate gradually cooled and became close to the
modern one.
Currently, humanity is in a warm interglacial period and is slowly moving
towards the next ice age, which will occur in a few tens of thousands of years. It is
not yet possible to determine the exact time of a severe cold snap, but most
scientists believe that we still have at least 20 thousand years. Therefore,
considering the climate of the last Millennium, and then the past and present
centuries, we can "forget" about the Earth's orbit and ice ages and pay attention to
other factors: ocean cycles, volcanoes and the Sun.

3.5. Natural climate change in recent centuries

 The factors that have caused climate change in the past hundreds of years
have, of course, always been at work. However, for more distant times, there is not
enough data to track their relatively small and short-term impact. Scientists have
determined how much the climate of 5-6 thousand years BC differed from the
climate of 13-14 thousand years ago. But it is impossible to say how the climate,
for example, of the 5100s BC differed from the climate of the 5300s. There were
changes, of course, but it is impossible to determine what specific changes were
made. We can only say that they were relatively short-term and small, much
smaller than the climate variations in the history of the Earth over hundreds of
thousands and millions of years.
There is much more data for the last thousand years. Of course, direct
measurements of temperature began only in the XVIII century, but there are
indirect methods that are already well developed and recognized by scientists as
reliable. One of the main ones is dendrochronology: determination of temperature
changes based on the width of the rings of the annual growth of wood. In addition
to very old trees, scientists have a lot of remnants of wooden buildings, where
there are very old logs. Other methods are based on the analysis of vegetation
cover, as well as bottom sediments of various reservoirs. As a result, for a number
of regions, it is possible to trace temperature variations over the past approximately
1200 years, but no more.
So far, we can't say that everything is known about the causes of climate
change. The level of knowledge is growing, but the assessment of the role of
various factors may change. Ten years ago, many scientists called variations in
solar activity the main factor of the last Millennium. However, research in recent
years has revealed the presence of very powerful, but unrelated to the Sun
variations with a period of several decades, which are usually called ocean cycles.
Actually, there can be no other name, since almost all the energy of the Earth's
climate system is concentrated in the ocean. In long-term fluctuations, atmospheric
processes can only seriously affect the climate if the ocean is involved.
Ocean cycles. Physical mechanisms that can lead to cyclical changes in the
ocean with a period of 1-2 to a hundred years or more are being actively
investigated. The picture is very complicated – there is a unified circulation of
surface and deep waters and their interaction with the atmosphere. Ocean currents
are united in a huge planetary conveyor and three-dimensional – there are surface
currents, and there are deep ones. In some parts of the conveyor, the movement of
water may be faster, and in others very slow, but covering huge masses of water.
Now imagine that the movement and temperature of various parts of this conveyor
can "pulse". When the surface waters are slightly warmer, the atmosphere is
warmer above them; when the deep waters are slightly warmer, the atmosphere is
colder. Energy seems to "flow" from the depths to the surface and back, from one
part of the ocean or atmosphere to another and "return" back, and this may take
decades, but the total amount of energy remains virtually unchanged. One of the
mechanisms for turning continuous motion into a cyclical process can be
convection, which, due to the viscosity of water, occurs only when there is a
certain difference in the density of water, depending on its temperature and
salinity. Until then, the temperature of the deep waters may slowly increase, but
there will be no convection. When the difference reaches a certain limit, a rapid
convective movement will begin.
Scientists identify and study long-term fluctuations in the ocean and
atmosphere around the globe. Here are just two examples. The Atlantic is
characterized by variations with a period of approximately 60-70 years [8]. Such
variations strongly affect the local climate, particularly the temperature in Western
Greenland. This is probably why, when the Vikings discovered it and called it "the
Green land", it was relatively warm, while in Sweden it could be cold, which only
increased the contrast. However, the influence of ocean variations on a global scale
is also possible.
Let's try to compare the phases of this cycle and changes in global air
temperature using the example of variations in the Atlantic (the so-called Atlantic
multi-decadal oscillation) (Fig. 1). In the XX century, the "warm" phase of this
oscillation occurred in 1930-1960, and the "cold" phases – in 1905-1925 and 1970-
1990. After that, the "warm" phase probably began in the late 1990s (the words
"warm" and "cold" are specifically given in quotation marks). The exact period of
these cyclical fluctuations is not known and they are poorly studied. In addition,
the 1930s saw the maximum solar activity. Therefore, based on these fluctuations,
it is impossible to tell which decades of the twenty-first century will be colder and
which will be warmer. However, even a superficial comparison suggests that
perhaps these ocean fluctuations significantly affect the Earth's climate.
 Fig. 1. The average annual temperature of the atmosphere [13]

The ten-year period 2010-2020 was the warmest since the beginning of
instrumental temperature measurements – since 1850.
Another example is the effect of the El Nino ocean phenomenon, or Southern
Oscillation, on the temperature of the planet. It manifests itself over a vast area in
the South Pacific, from Indonesia to South America. The physical nature of the
phenomenon is very complex and has not yet been fully studied. Schematically, we
can say that very warm water, concentrated in a 100-200-meter layer in the Central
Pacific ocean, "suddenly" begins to spread a thin layer over the surface of the
ocean, covering a huge area. Usually cold waters off the coast of Peru are suddenly
replaced by warmer, very dry weather is replaced by showers, etc. The effect of El
Nino is very noticeable throughout the planet. It is with him that scientists
associate the fact that 2011 on the planet was colder than 2009 and 2010. In
particular, at the beginning of the year, the surface water temperature in the Central
and Eastern parts of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean was 1.5–2 °C below the average
value for 1961-1990. In such years, the entire planet was colder.
The role of volcanoes in climate formation is very important, but short-
term. After eruptions with the removal of large amounts of ash and other particles
to the stratosphere (if the particles do not reach the stratosphere, they quickly
settle) the Earth is shaded for one to three years and the temperature on the entire
planet drops by about 0.2-0.4 °C, which is very significant. For example, in 1991,
after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, the cooling effect of the particles released by
it was almost twice as much as the heating effect of CO2 coming from all sources
on the planet. Then the particles settle and the climate system "forgets" about the
eruption. Such eruptions are rare; in recent decades, they were only in 1963
(Agung), 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Pinatubo). Recent eruptions in Iceland and
other regions have not affected the stratosphere or the climate.
Another reason for climate change is variations in solar radiation. An 11-
year solar cycle is known. Observations of the Sun, which began in the XVII
century, also allow us to trace 40-45-, 60-70-, 100- and 200-year variability [3]. At
the same time, the flow of energy coming from the Sun changes slightly, but there
are more complex effects that can also affect the climate. The influence of the Sun
on the content of ozone in the atmosphere (which is a greenhouse gas, although its
contribution to the overall greenhouse effect is very small); influence on
stratospheric clouds (in clear weather, night temperatures depend on their number).
On the other hand, the study of the influence of the Sun and other cosmic factors
on geomagnetic phenomena has not revealed climate effects.
The Maunder minimum of solar activity is known (approximately 1640-
1715), when it was somewhat colder. The Sun also affected the climate in the XX
century, in the late 1930s there was a peak of solar activity, and in the Arctic there
was relatively little ice. A fainter but still noticeable maximum of the 200-year
solar cycle was observed in the 1980s and 1990s. And the ascending branch of the
11-year cycle occurred around 1997-2003 (Fig. 2) [16]. Then you could read in the
press that the warming of the Earth is caused by the activity of the Sun.
Climatologists did not agree with this, which was then confirmed – warming is
increasing, although the activity of the Sun is on the wane. Therefore, you can hear
statements about cooling in the very near future [11]. This might have been the
case, but for the intervention of other factors, much stronger. These are probably
the natural ocean cycles mentioned above and, most importantly, the increase in
the greenhouse effect due to the increase in the concentration of CO2, methane and
other anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
 Fig. 2. The average annual temperature of the atmosphere [16]

The fact that natural factors have caused climate change in the past does not
mean that current climate change is also caused by natural causes. Similarly, the
fact that forest fires have long been caused by natural causes, such as lightning
strikes, does not mean that fires cannot be caused by human carelessness.

3.6. The main climatic feature of the last decades

Warm days in winter, snow falling only in January, floods and droughts
occurred in the times when the Vikings discovered Greenland about 1000 years
ago. But never in the history of mankind has there been such a high concentration
of CO2 in the atmosphere, or such a sharp increase in it, observed since the 1960s
and 1980s. This is the main climatic feature of the last decades (Fig. 3).
 Fig. 3. Changes in the
concentration of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere [13]

According to the records of surface air temperature, in particular, for the XX

century, almost nothing can be said about the current climate change. In the 1930s,
during the Chelyuskin expedition, the Arctic was also warmer than in the twentieth
century as a whole. But a significant increase in the concentration of CO 2 in the
atmosphere was not yet observed, and the temperature increase was both in the
troposphere and in the stratosphere. This was a uniform warming of the entire
atmospheric column. Now warming is observed only in the troposphere, and
above, in the stratosphere, there is cooling.
The problem of anthropogenic climate change lies in changes in the chemical
and physical composition of the atmosphere, not in an increase in temperature.
Humans have almost no direct impact on the climate system, but they pollute the
atmosphere with dust and soot, increase the concentration of CO2 and methane,
emit new synthesized greenhouse gases, cut down forests and change the albedo,
fly on airplanes and increase the number of Cirrus clouds, and so on. These
impacts can both warm the planet (as emissions of CO2, methane, N2O and other
greenhouse gases, soot) and cool it (as atmospheric pollution by aerosols).
Scientists consider all types of impacts in detail and reduce them to a common
denominator – warming or cooling the atmosphere in the form of an energy flow in
W/m2 per second. All energy flows – coming from the Sun, absorption, reflection
and radiation by the atmosphere, the Earth's surface and cloud cover, the costs of
evaporation and the latent heat of condensation – make up its global balance.
Calculations have shown that for the planet as a whole, the most important and
strong human impact is now an increase in the concentration of CO2. Therefore,
let's first consider the distribution of CO2 (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. Concentration of carbon dioxide in atmospheric air [13]

Of course, a person can also directly warm the atmosphere – burn fuel and
heat the environment. A good example of this is the "heat islands" of cities, where
the temperature can rise by more than 5 °C compared to the temperature outside
the city. But on a global scale, this is a very small impact that does not affect the
climate of the planet or region.
Once again, scientists analyze all possible factors, including geological and
geomagnetic, in particular, volcanic activity as a direct source of heat and CO2, the
presence of space dust and cosmic radiation, but they are not considered a
significant factor in modern climate change.
The concentration of CO2 is easy to measure, and such observations are made
at about 300 stations around the world. But the specific location is not important in
this case: CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere, and the increase in concentration is
almost the same around the world. Global growth in CO2 concentration depends
not on local emissions, but on global emissions. Concentrations of CH 4 and N2O
are also rapidly increasing, which is also due to human activity. Methane enters the
atmosphere from natural gas production, from pets, and from rice fields. Nitrogen
oxide enters the atmosphere when nitrogen fertilizers are applied to the soil.
Consider the global CO2 cycle. It can be represented as two huge loops – gas
exchange of the atmosphere with terrestrial biota and gas exchange with the ocean
(Fig. 5). The ascending branch of the first loop (CO2 emission into the atmosphere)
is the respiration of plants and animals, soil organisms, and the decomposition of
organic matter. Descending branch (absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere) –
photosynthesis of terrestrial plants. The second loop is the physical process of
ocean gas exchange with the atmosphere, which is closely related to the third loop,
which is already in the ocean. This is the respiration and photosynthesis of
phytoplankton.

Fig. 5. The cycle of carbon dioxide in nature [8]

When man began to extract coal, and then oil and gas, he interfered with the
CO2 cycle. Let's explain this with the example of coal (the burning of gas, oil
products, and peat, as well as the destruction of forests, in principle, work the same
way). Millions of years ago, coal was formed from plant remains. Thus, CO 2 was
removed from the atmosphere (during plant growth and photosynthesis) and placed
underground in the form of coal. Now the person takes it back and, burning it,
returns the CO2 to the atmosphere. It would seem that nothing is wrong – this is a
cycle. But a person burns as much coal in a year as it was formed in hundreds of
thousands and millions of years. Therefore, there is no balance, but there is an
unbalanced release of CO2 into the atmosphere by natural processes.
But why do we say that the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere is caused by
humans? After all, biota breathes, and the CO2 flows between terrestrial
ecosystems, the atmosphere, and the ocean are huge – 20 or more times greater
than the CO2 flow from burning fossil fuels. Maybe these huge flows somehow
change naturally and this leads to an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere. Why is a person to blame? This is clearly indicated by the analysis of
the correlation between anthropogenic CO2 emissions, changes in the ratio of
carbon isotopes (C12 and C13) and an increase in the total CO2 content in the
atmosphere. The CO2 that grows in the atmosphere has an isotopic composition
characteristic of the products of burning coal, oil and gas. Of course, the main part
(more than 99%), in any case, is C12O2. But in CO2 from fuel combustion, C13O2 is
much less than in CO2 from photosynthesis.
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increases inexorably every year,
both in the cold and in the warm. This is not surprising, because the sources of
growth are emissions from power plants and boilers, transport, and industrial
enterprises. Wherever coal, gas, petroleum products, and peat are burned, CO 2
enters the atmosphere.
Where does the CO2 go? Now more than half of the CO2 accumulates in the
atmosphere, about 1/6 is absorbed by terrestrial ecosystems, and about 1/3 is
absorbed by the ocean and eventually in the form of limestone (calcium carbonate,
CaCO3), mainly shells of marine organisms foraminifera, is deposited on the
bottom (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6. Shells of marine foraminifera [9]

 Will the ocean continue to absorb CO2 in the same proportion in the future
and turn the carbon stored in coal, oil, natural gas, and peat into sediment on the
ocean floor? Unfortunately, the ocean itself, no matter how large it is, is already
responding to both the increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the
overall increase in the greenhouse effect.

3.7. The growth air temperature

Since the beginning of the XX century, the temperature of the surface layer of
air on the planet has increased by 0.8 °C. The average temperature today is no
longer 13.7 °C, but 14.5 °C [5]. The ocean cycles, variations in solar activity and
volcanic eruptions that have shaped climate change in recent centuries are now
being affected by human activity.
By changing the composition of the atmosphere, a person affects both
warming and cooling. Air pollution by dust causes cooling, and CO 2 and other
greenhouse gases, soot – in the direction of warming.
According to the World Meteorological Organization's survey, the trend for
the world as a whole is warming. This is indicated by data from major
meteorological centers (Fig. 7). At the same time, the temperature increase is much
greater than the differences between the data from different centers [15].
 Fig. 7. The growth temperature according to the meteorological centers [13]

3.8. The imbalance of the climate and the growing number

of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena

The main threat to nature and man was not warming (it is still small), but
change, or rather, climate imbalance. In other words, it is correct to talk not about
warming (as a global short – term trend) or cooling (as a trend in the future tens of
thousands of years – because we are waiting for a new ice age), but about climate
imbalance, because we are seeing temperature jumps 5-10 times greater than the
growth of average temperatures [17].
For example, the winters of 2010 and 2011 in most of Russia were
significantly colder than in the previous three years. But at the same time, in
February 2010, the "heat" record was broken at the cold pole in Oymyakon: it was
only -15.3 °C, and at the same time at the Olympic Games in Vancouver, Canada,
there was not enough snow or cold. Rosgydromet in its "Reports on climate
features in the Russian Federation" emphasizes that cold winters in a separate part
or even in most of the territory of Russia do not indicate a change in the trend [3].
There is a different dimension of climate – its extremes. If earlier we talked
about a Maritime climate with mild winters and humid summers and a continental
climate with hot summers and cold winters, now simultaneously the winter can be
abnormally cold and "hot", the summer can be both dry and rainy. This is how our
new weather fluctuates from month to month. An increase in the number of
hazards is recorded (Fig. 8), and three parameters are calculated. The first is the
number of dangerous weather events (storm winds, heavy rains, snowfall,
abnormal heat and cold, blizzards, tornadoes, ice, frost, etc.), they are directly
related to the weather and climate. The growth is mainly due to the warmer season.
Some completely new phenomena are not recorded for a particular area, but it
happens that very rare events, such as ice rain, occur more often and are perceived
by people as new to their region [14].

Fig. 8. Extreme natural processes [13]

The second parameter is the total number of hazards, including agro-

meteorological and hydrological (Fig. 9). The third is the phenomena that have
caused significant damage to the economy and the life of the population. The
increase in damage is due to two factors: an increase in meteorological hazards and
an increase in the vulnerability of all infrastructure – bridges, roads, power lines,
dams, houses and other structures that are often built without taking into account
possible emergencies.
 Fig. 9. Geography of landslide processes in South-East Asia [13]

Weather forecast and climate forecast are different things. Weather forecast
and climate forecast are different things. Success in one does not mean success in
the other. Conversely, failure in one does not lead to failure in the other. Just
because the weather is difficult to predict accurately, even for a week, does not
mean that climate change cannot be predicted. But it uses a probabilistic
description of how often or less often certain temperatures or weather events will
be observed.
Work on predicting changes in the frequency of dangerous hydro-
meteorological events is actively being carried out all over the world. So far, it is
possible to give a forecast only in a much generalized form.
Not all dangerous hydro-meteorological phenomena can be associated with
human exposure to one degree or another. Probably, some phenomena may
become more numerous for natural reasons; they may be affected, for example, by
ocean cycles. There is still a lot of uncertainty.
There is also a different kind of effect. So, the damage from typhoons is
growing, but we cannot say that there are more typhoons. The damage is caused by
the fact that more people live in high-risk areas. In many places, land is scarce, and
people start to settle too close to the sea or on Islands, often building completely
dilapidated homes.
For floods, there is a combination of two factors: the increase in damage from
both an increase in the number of floods, and from more people living in
dangerous areas. Often, the damage is multiplied by simple mismanagement or
thoughtless construction of dams and other facilities that lead to flooding. For
example, this was the case during the flood in Bangkok (Thailand) in 2011 and
during the flood in Krymsk (Russia, Krasnodar region) in July 2012.

3.9. Not current but future climate changes are dangerous

There are still a lot of unresolved issues in climate science. However, the
most serious cause of climate change in recent decades is human impact. Human
actions, in particular, on CO2 emissions can be predicted (after all, this is, first of
all, the course of development of world energy – the consumption of coal, gas and
oil), and therefore give a forecast of climate change. This is what causes concern,
because it promises much more serious losses from dangerous hydro-
meteorological events than we see now.
The increase in cases of unusual weather, storm winds, heavy precipitation,
floods and droughts, as well as a general understanding of the causes and
inevitability of damage – this is what worries environmentalists. For Russia and
Canada, the melting and degradation of permafrost is also important.
Another effect is the rise of the ocean level and the gradual flooding of small
Islands, low-lying, but in our time densely populated areas and large cities. This
applies primarily to South-East Asia, but it is not necessary to forget and about
other coastal cities.
Pale-climatic data show that 1°C of warming or cooling accounts for about 15
m of rising or falling ocean levels. Over the past hundred years, it has warmed by
0.8 °C, and the ocean level has grown by only about 20 cm (now it is growing by
3-5 cm in 10 years, both due to the thermal expansion of water in the upper layer
of the ocean, and due to the destruction and melting of glaciers). At the same time,
scientists say that the ocean level will increase by 0.5-1.5 m by the end of the XXI
century.
The reason for the "discrepancy" on the time scale – 15 m by 1 °C –
corresponds to the equilibrium state in which the Earth's climate system comes
hundreds and probably even thousands of years. This means that even if the
anthropogenic impact on the climate is drastically reduced, the ocean level will
gradually increase for hundreds and thousands of years. In principle, the growth
can be even a few tens of meters. This process is non-linear, and it is not yet
known how non-linear it is. Will the ocean level "shoot" at the end of the XXI
century or in the middle of the XXII century? Or maybe the process is so slow –
tens of thousands of years, and we will come to the aid of a new ice age that will
reverse this process? There is no answer to these questions right now, but it is
probably best to follow the precautionary principle and focus on the worst-case
scenarios.
Nature can adapt to many things, but it needs time. The process of changes
should not be very fast; otherwise losses cannot be avoided. Smoothness means
that humanity must slow down the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, and then
gradually reduce it. In an International Report published in 2007, scientists have
already given a rough answer about the relatively safe level of emissions and the
necessary actions: by the middle of the XXI century, global anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by 2 times from the level of 1990. In
this case, the increase in the average temperature will be 2 °C or only slightly
more, which should avoid the most dangerous phenomena and much damage.
Let's see what is dangerous about a "slight" temperature increase of a few
degrees on the planet.
For food, a decrease in yields in Africa and Asia is expected with any increase
in temperature, but up to a certain limit it can be offset by an increase in yields in
more northern and developed countries. When the global temperature increases by
more than 4 °C, the decrease in yield becomes worldwide and requires expensive
farming methods and the use of new varieties.
The expected shortage of fresh water is of particular concern. Up to the
"threshold" of 2 °C, only certain arid regions suffer from this, and with a greater
increase in the average temperature, the deficit becomes massive. It is estimated
that in all continents, including Central Asia and Southern Russia, up to a third of
the population will suffer from water scarcity.
About the increase in the level of the World's oceans has already been
mentioned above. In fact, its rise by 1 m is already inevitable; it is only a matter of
time. Whether it will be worse is crucial for large cities and low-lying areas of
South-East Asia and, of course, island states.
Another problem is related to the ocean – the increase in the acidity of its
waters. Coral reefs are already suffering. In the event of an adverse development, a
rapid increase in the number of aquatic species that will be on the verge of
extinction is expected.
In General, the situation is similar with terrestrial ecosystems. It is estimated
that if the global temperature rises by 3-4 °C, between 30 and 50% of all species
will be on the verge of extinction. Of course, life on the Earth will not be
threatened, but the irreversible loss of biodiversity can be very large.
Environmentalists are very concerned about the growing risk of rapid and
irreversible changes in the climate system. For example, a sharp change in the Gulf
Stream, the probability of which is still considered extremely small, but by the
middle of the XXII century may increase significantly.
 Of course, it is better that the increase in average temperature stopped at 1.5
°C, then you can save almost all, even small island states that are threatened with
flooding. At first glance, it is too late, and so much growth in emissions cannot be
stopped. However, our knowledge of current climate change is not complete.
Perhaps a better knowledge of natural cycles or the response of the climate system
to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the future will allow us to redefine the
limits of what is achievable.
According to environmental organizations, faced with very serious losses
from climate change, humanity will actually sharply reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and even reverse the increase in the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere [7]. Technically, this is possible. That is why environmentalists do not
discount the goal of "1.5 °C" and demand a seemingly unattainable, but so
desirable result.
There are other ideas. A number of scientists say that the situation with
emissions is extremely negative, which may require "geo-engineering" – an
artificial impact on the Earth's climate system. Theoretically, this is possible, for
example, it is proposed to protect the planet with a "screen" of sulfur-acidified tiny
water droplets that shade us from the Sun. However, according to the vast majority
of scientists, this is only a purely theoretical possibility, since the creation of the
screen can dramatically change the global atmospheric circulation and even the
early and rapid onset of the ice age is not excluded. Therefore, such ideas should
be investigated on computer models, but not try to make full-scale experiments on
the entire planet.
Direct human impact is limited to purely local actions. For example, you can
affect fog at airports and on roads, improve the weather during mass events, but
you can't affect the weather or climate even in a particular region.
Scientists are very concerned about the possible acceleration of climate
change due to feedbacks. The most serious concern is the negative reaction of the
ocean to the increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The word
"negative" refers to a decrease in its ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and
an even faster increase in its concentration in the atmosphere.
The second global effect is the risk of huge amounts of methane being
released into the atmosphere in permafrost on land and in the form of methane
hydrates (snow-like methane compounds) on the sea floor. The ground is thawing
more and more. The methane hydrates even with a small increase in temperature
can start to break down and turn into gas. This is true for the Arctic, where they lie
at a small depth. There is also a lot of organic matter in Arctic soils and swamps,
which will begin to decompose when the temperature increases, which can lead to
a strong emission of CO2 into the atmosphere. Other possible local and global
feedbacks are being investigated, such as the impact of deforestation on cloud
cover.
Emissions of soot particles are also important for the Arctic. For the world as
a whole, their role in the anthropogenic impact on the climate is much less than
that of greenhouse gases. However, falling on white-pure Arctic snow, soot
increases the absorption of solar radiation several times (in addition, soot is a
carcinogen that causes direct harm to human health).
According to the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation [10], there are
two possibilities that need to be implemented simultaneously. First, you need to
adapt to changes, and act with a margin and rely not on the minimum (best)
changes, but on the worst of the forecasts. We must take action regardless of
whether we know all the causes of modern climate change. Secondly, we need to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which depend primarily on the generation and
consumption of electricity and heat. Actions to reduce emissions must be taken
simultaneously in all countries.

3.10. Global climate change forecasts

Experts believe that there may be several scenarios for the development of
global changes.
1. Global changes, namely temperature increases, will not be abrupt. The
Earth has a mobile atmosphere, and heat energy is distributed throughout the planet
due to the movement of air masses. The world's oceans store more heat than the
atmosphere. On such a large planet with its complex system, changes can't happen
too quickly. Significant changes will take millennia.
2. Rapid global warming. This scenario is considered much more often. The
temperature has increased by half a degree over the past century, the amount of
carbon dioxide has increased by 20% and methane by 100%. The melting of Arctic
and Antarctic ice will continue. The water level in the oceans and seas will be
significantly higher. The number of disasters on the planet will increase. The
amount of precipitation on the Earth will be distributed unevenly, which will
increase the area affected by drought.
3. In some parts of the Earth, warming will change to a short-term cooling.
Scientists calculated this scenario based on the fact that the warm current of the
Gulf Stream has become 30% slower and can completely stop if the temperature
rises by a couple of degrees. This may be reflected by a strong cold snap in the
Northern Europe, as well as in the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and in the
northern regions of the European part of Russia. But this is only possible for a
short period of time, and then warming will return to Europe. And everything will
develop according to scenario 2.
4. Global warming will be replaced by global cooling. This is possible when
stopping not only the Gulf Stream, but also other ocean currents. This is fraught
with the onset of a new ice age.
5. The worst-case scenario is a greenhouse disaster. An increase in carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere will contribute to an increase in temperature. This will
lead to the fact that carbon dioxide from the world's oceans will begin to pass into
the atmosphere. Carbonate sedimentary rocks will decompose with even greater
release of carbon dioxide, which will lead to an even greater increase in
temperature and decomposition of carbonate rocks in deeper layers. Glaciers will
quickly melt (Fig. 10), while reducing the Earth's albedo. The amount of methane
will increase, and the temperature will rise, which will lead to a disaster. An
increase in temperature on the Earth by 50 degrees will lead to the death of human
civilization, and by 150 degrees – will cause the death of all living organisms.

Fig. 10. Reduction of the glacier in Alaska [13]

Global climate change on the Earth, as we can see, can pose a threat to all of
humanity. Therefore, much attention should be paid to this issue. We need to study
how we can reduce human influence on these global processes.
Conclusion

The problem of climate change is not a myth, but a reality that should be
taken seriously.
At the scale of tens of thousands of years, the Earth is moving towards a
cooling – a new ice age, but in the XXI–XXII centuries, global warming caused by
human activity is expected. It will be superimposed on natural climate variability –
some of the decade could be warmer and some colder.
The main danger is not in warming as such, but in its consequences – the
imbalance of climate and weather, which leads to an increase in the number and
intensity of dangerous hydro-meteorological phenomena, rising sea levels, melting
permafrost, etc.
People, economies and ecosystems need to prepare for such changes based on
the specifics of a particular region. It is necessary to understand the role of each
person, organization, city and region in the climate problem, as well as to know
and implement specific actions that reduce the negative impact of people on the
climate (reducing greenhouse gas emissions, soot, forest conservation, etc.), and to
minimize damage (adaptation measures).

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