© sn power MIDDLE YEYWA HYDRO POWER PROJECT SHAN STATE, MYANMAR PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDIES 24 June 2018 Revo esiean of eden feet COMPREHENSIVE PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDIES REPORT DRAFT ISSUE TO MINISTRY OF ELECTRIC POWER G P6YRY ering balanced sustainabilityMiddle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page | Contact Stephan Martin Poyry Energy Ltd. ‘Vanit II Bldg., 22™ Floor 1126/2 New Petchburi Rd., Makkasan_ Rajchthewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand Tel: +66 2657 1000 Mobil +66 92 264 0738 Fax +66 2 650 3173, Email: stephan. martin@poyry.com ‘www. poyry.com “This report has been prepared by Poyry Energy Thailand Ltd. (“Poyry”) for SN Power pursuant to the consultancy services agreement signed between the Parties. This report is based in part on information not within Péyry’s control. While the information provided in this report is believed to be accurate and reliable under the conditions and subject to the qualifications set forth herein Péyry does not, without prejudice to Péyry’s obligations towards the Recipient under the Agreement, make any representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Use of this report and any of the estimates contained herein by anyone else than the Recipient (“Third Party User”) shall, therefore, be at the Third Party User's sole risk. Any use by a Third Party User shall constitute a release and agreement to defend and indemnify Péyry from and against any liability of Péyry towards the Third Party User, whatsoever in type or nature, in connection with such use, whether liability is asserted to arise in contract, negligence, strict liability or other theory of law. All information contained in this report is of confidential nature and may be used and disclosed by the Recipient solely in accordance with the terms and conditions set forth in the Agreement.” Allrights are reserved. This document or any part thereof may not be copied or reproduced without permission in writing from Péyry Energy Thailand Ltd. Copyright © Péyry Eneray Ltd, 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9Hx248990,10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page! 4.11 Ecological Flow.. 4.12 Sedimentation 5 ALTERNATIVES PROJECT LAYOUTS. gb 5.1 Introduction. 52 Methodology for Scheme Selection 53 ___ Potential Hydropower Projects 53.1. General. 53.2 Middle Yeywa Alternative 1 53.3 Middle Yeywa— Alternative 2. 534 Middle Yeywa - Alternative 3. 535 Middle Yeywa~ Alternative 4. 53.6 Middle Yeywa -Alternative 42. 53.7 Middle Veywa - Alternative 5.1 53.8 Middle Yeywa— Alternative 5. 5.3.9 _ Staged Hydropower Development. nt Features of Potential Hydropower Projects. 54.1 Alternative 1 (Circa 200 MW). 54.2 Alternative 2 (Circa 300 MW) 5.4.3 Alternative 3 (circa 400 MW). 544 Alternative 4.1 (Circa 500 MW). 5.4.1 Alternative 4.2 (Circa 500 MW). 5.4.2 Alternative 5.1 (Circa 690 MW). 5.4.3 Alternative 5.2 (Circa 690 MW)... 6 ALTERNATIVES STUDY wwsnssnnssnnssnnte 61 Project Selection 62 Cost Estimate . 6.2.1 Methodology... 6.2.2 Unit Prices for Civil Works... 6.23 Direct Costs 623.1 Civil Works and Main Cost tems. 623.2 Electro Mechanical Equipment 62.3.3 Hydro-Mechanicol Equipment. 623.4 Transmission Lin, Switchyard and Grid Connection. 623. Switchyard and Connection to the Myanmar Grid 6236 Contingencies 624 Indirect COStS unseen 6.25 Preliminary Cost Estimate 63 Power Generation... 63.1 Introduction. “ 63.2 Hydropower Plant and Reservoir Operation at Upper Yeywa..... 63.3 _ Energy Model at Middle Yeywe 633.1 Topographic Data 63.32 Hydrological Data 6333 Environmental Flow. 6334 Hydraulic Head Losses. 6335 Plant Efficiency 6336 — Losses.. 633.7 Tallwater Level 6338 spillway Discharge Capacity uve 63.4 Reservoir Operation . 63.5 Power Potential Evaluation. 64 Conclusion s4 Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page Contents INTRODUCTION. General : The Projet. nnn Objectives ... Available Information and References Topography. 14a 142 143 14a Digital Elevation Models. “Morphology of the Nam Tu River Logistics and Acces Reservoir Area and Capacity Curves GEOLOGY ser Regional Geology of Myanmar. Project GeOlOf) nnennnenn 3.2.1 GeomorpholOEy...rrn-m 3.22 _Uitho-Stratigraphi 3.2.3 Rock Mass Discontinuities. 3.2.4 Karst Phenomena 3.2.5 Hydrogeology... 3.3. Assessment of Depth of Karstfication based on Analogy Observations 3.3.1 Situation in Well-known Karst Area 3.32 _ Situation Observed at the Middle Veywa Project Areas 3.3.3 Interpretation of Findings in Middle Yeywa Project Area.. 3.4 Engineering Geology at Potential Dam Locations... 3.4.1 Alternative 1 (Option P1B / Location 2) san 3.4.2 Alternative 2 (Qption P10 / Location 2) 3.43. Alternative 3, 4.1 and 5.1 (Option P2 / Location 3). 3.44 Alternative 4.2 and 5.2 (Option P2 / Location 4)... -_ 3.45 General Geotechnical Properties .. preppps 35 Reservoir Wateghines and Stbiliy 3.6 Construction Materials. 37 Seismicity. " " 38 Mineral Resources 4 HYDROLOGY 4.1 Catchment Area 4.2 Data Collection. 42.1 Hydro-Meteorological Data. 422 Flow Data.n. 43” Evaluation ofthe Available Data... 44 Climat 45 Preliminary Water Balance. $6 Inflow SePi€8 nnn 47 Monthly Inflows... 48 Flood Frequency Estimation. 49 Diversion Floods in Dry Season 4.10 Preliminary Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). Copyright © Payry Energy Ltd 124 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page i 7 PROJECT OPTIMIZATION STUDIES 90 7 Objectives . 7 72 Refined Reservoirs and HPP"s Operation 73 Project Sizing / Optimization. 73.1 Approach ” 7.3.2 Power Scheme Optimization. 7321 Methodology. 7322 Discussion on the Full Supply Level (FSU) 73.23 Energy Outputs. Installed Capacity, 7324 — Hard Costsvs. Installed Capacity. 1325) _Secudoon Matoun Opting el (wou. 1a Conclusion 8 PROJECT LAYOUT AND CIVIL DESIGN. 81 Project Concept, 82 River Hydraulics. 8.2.1 Introduction. 8.2.2 Water Surface Profile Calculations 8.2.3 HEC-RAS Model and Cross Sections 8.2.4 Calibration of the Model... 8.2.5 Tallwater Rating Curve 8.2.6 Suggestions for the Further Site Investigations at the Feasiblity Studies Stage 83 River Diversion serous se 83.1 General Concept... 7 8.3.2 Preliminary Hydraulic Desigr 83.3 Cofferdams....... 105 83.4 Diversion Closure and Tunnel Plugging. ne 06 8a RCC Dam, ivi , snc 106 8.4.1 General Description.. " se 106 84,2 Geometry and Layout.. 107 8.4.3 Foundation Excavation .xrnnm 107 84.4 Dam Stability Analysis and Stresses.. 108 844.1 Introduction, 108 8442 Load Combinations.. so 108 84.43 Analysis Parameters. 84.4.4 Minimum Acceptable Safety Factor 84.45 Static Load Combinations 8.4.46 Dam Model Parameters 8447 Calculations 8.4.4.8 Stability Analysis Results 8.449 Stresses Analysis Results 8.4.5 Dam Facings 8.46 Dam Foundation Curtain Grouting. 8.4.7 Dam Foundation Consolidation Grouting... 8.4.8 Drainage Curtain and Dam Drainage. 8.4.9 Dam Rock Galleries . 8.4.10 Dam Galleries and Shafts BA11 Dam Crest Details. 84.12 Dam Contraction Joi 8.4.13 Damlnstrumentation and Monitoring System as Spillway a 85.1 General Design Considerations 85.2 General Description... 8.5.3 spillway Design Floods. ‘Copyright © Payry Energy Lid 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page il 8.5.4 Characteristics. ug 86 Outlet Structures... 120 8.6.1 General Design Considerations 120 8.6.2 Discharge Requirements. 121 86.3 _ Intermediate Outlet Design. meted 87 Power Intake Structures. - 122 8.7.1 General Design... 8.7.2 Hydro-Mechanical Equipment ....n- 88 Power Waterways. eonenemnene 88.1 General Design Features. 8.8.2 _ Steel lined Tunnel Section . 8.8.3 Discussion on Surge Facilities 89 Powerhouse. = 89.1 General Design Considerations 8.9.2 Number of Units 8.9.3 Powerhouse Layout.. 122 123 123 ne BB enccaaceaccsi REL 124 124 124 124 nnn 25 89.4 Preliminary Recommendations for Underground Excavations... 126 8.10 Access Roads.. “ u126 8.10.1 Access Roads Assessment . 7 26 B12 Access to the Site oun 127 9 ELECTRO-MECHANICAL WORKS AND TRANSMISSION LINES... 9.1 Mechanical Equipment - 9.1.1 Main inlet Valves ve 12 TU Ne orn . 9.13 24270 Bridge Crane sun 7 92 Electrical Equipment. 9.2.1 Generator... 9.2.2 Transformer. 9.2.3 HV Switchgear (GIS) 93 2x230 kV Transmission Lines... 10 HYDRAULIC STEEL WORKS...... 10.1 River Diversion Bulkhead Gate. 10.2 Spillway... se 1021 — Radial Gates 102.2 StOpIORS nnn 10.2.3. Gantry Crane... 103 Intermediate Outlets... 104 Power Intakes... 10.4.1 Trashracks 10.42 Trashrack Cleaning Machine (TRCN) 1043 Intake Stoplog Gates. 10.4.4 Intake Stoplog Gantry Crane ww. 10.4.5 — Maintenance Gates. 105 Power Outlets... 105.1 Draft Tube Bulkhead: 105.2 _ Draft Tube Gantry Crane.. 11 COST ESTIMATE.. 1.1 Approach. 112 Contingencies. 13° Total Hard Cost... 114 General Comments... ‘Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page iv 12 12 12.2 123 POWER GENERATION asses Key Parameters ofthe Middle Yeywa 700 MW HPP... 1231 Hydraulic System 1232 Head Losses 123.3 Plant EFFICIENCY vonennnnnsnsnnn 124 Energy Production eco noneeennneennwnee 12.4.1 Mean Annual Production... 12.4.2 Annual Generation Series 1956-1997... 124.3 Monthly Analysis of the Power Generation Model.. 3 CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMM! 13.1 General Comments. 13.2 Diversion Works.. 133 RCC Dam Construction... 13.3.1 Dam Excavation 133.2 Dam Construction 13.4 Underground Works... 13.5. Principal Quantities... 13.6 Construction Programme . 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. JAA Conclusion scm 142 Salient Features... 143° Further Studies and Investigations. List of Figures Figure 1-1: Project Location ... Figure 1-2: Existing Power Grid and Five year Plan Figure 2-1: Elevation- capacity curves of Middle Yeywa Reservoi Figure 3-1: Generalized seismo-tectonic map of Myanmar with indicated project area (Figure 1 in [2 xicna aces Figure 3-2: Schematic presentation of major gootcetonic units o Figure 3-3: Major fault system in Southeast Asi (left: Figure 2 in [17], right: Figure 2 in [8))... Figure 3-4: Left: Exiract from geological map 1977 [1]: Right: Extract from ecological map 1981 [6]; Middle Yeywa HPP area indicated by red frame sesnnnces 10 Figure 3-5: Extract from Landsat-{ interpretation map 1977 [2]; Middle Yeywa HPP area ini by ted frame. Figure 3-6: above Figure 3-7: Dolomitie limestone as the top layer inthe project area; karst caves are widespread and clearly visible (left bank of Nam Tu)... Figure 3-8: Red residual soil on top of the dolomitic limestone (in the foreground} Figure assive dolomit with no signs of karst; in the center, above the dolomite the cliff of dolomitie Himestone in Figure 3-7. ernnenn Figure 3-10; Three types of tufa deposits: Top left: soft tafa mixed with (rotten) vegetation: Top right: hard layer of tufa above red residual soil; Bottom: ‘ery hard tf precipitated iestly on very hard dolomite. seve yanmar (Figure 4 in (8). approximate location of project area is indicatcd Main geomorphological features in the middle section ofthe area; for 12 Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 2a June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project. ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page v Figure 3-11: Stereographic plots of bedrock discontinuities in very strong dolomite on the right bank of the Nam Tu river. Left: 21 joint measures; Right: 12 bedding plane measurements (both on lower hemispheres).. 15 Figure 3-12: Various locations with tufa deposits deriving from surface water running from the top level (refer to text above). 16 Figure 3-13: Top: karern-like bedrock surface due to friction and polishing by sediment load of river water; Middle: mechanically excavated pots in hard dolomite due toturbulent flowing river water with cobble/boulders; Bottom: eroded cave in brecciated dolomite. nsnmn:mnnnnnnnneanssninne LT Figure 3-14: Ground collapse beside the road not far upstream of the Nam Tu bridge (this is not a Karst sinkhole). ...-sscsssesssnesseecussecseessssessee sense 18 : Three metre deep well ending in red residual soils.... 19 Relationship of depth of karstification with groundwater level 20 Figure 3-17:Figure 4 in [10] showing typical section across karst area (Quelle Spring. unterirdischer Fluss = underground river), yellow line: base of karstfication, eve 21 Figure 3-18:Sketch of the most important findings in Middle Veywa Project area: for details re TEX. sesso sees 22 Figure ‘eft: Structural interpretation of the Central Myanmar Basin and adjacent Shan Plateau from various satellite images... 26 Figure 3-20: Seismicity maps based on earthquake catalogs: Let USGS/NEIC catalog 1973-2008, project area is indicated... 27 Figure 3-21: Seismic eross section along an W-E traverse: SSF ~ Shan Sagaing Fatlltwwssussnosnm 27 Figure 3-22: Extracts from the Seismic Zone Map of Myanmar 2012 (left) and from the probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Myanmar 2012 (righ). Project area is indicated: note that the two maps are : ANSS catalog 1963-201 not 100% correlative regarding spacial distribution. 28 Figure 3-23: Extract from the Mineral Resource Map of Myanmar; scale 1:1°500°000, 1991; attachment to [8]; Middle Yeywa HPP area indicated by blue frame. 29 Figure 4-1: Myitnge River sub-catchment derived from HydroSHEDS/ASTER DEM wensnsnsnnon 3 Figure 4-2: Myitnge River flow data collected . 33 Figure 4-3: Monthly Flows at Salin plotted against monthly flows recorded st Shwesayan 34 Figure 4-4: Double mass curve GS Shwesayan versus GS Hsipaw.... 35 Figure 4-5: Long-term mean of monthly runoff depth [mm] observed at GS Hsipaw and GS Shwesayan Figure 4. 35 Map of mean annual precipitation in Northern/Central Myanmar (Source: FAO Digital Agricultural Atlas, FAO 2009). sennnnneneenes 36 Figure 4-8: Mean values of monthly precipitation and temperature data at Hsipaw 38 Figure 4-9: Estimation of mean annual precipitation for different sub-catchments based on isohyetal ‘maps extracted from Pyaung Sho Hydropower Project, Prelim. Desk Study... 39 Figure 4-10: Budyko Curve... 39 Figure 4-11: Mean annual precipitation and cunofi depth (with #/-15% uncertainty margin) estimated for different sub-catchments... 40 Figure 4-12: Daily flow series 1956-1997 derived for Middle Yeywa dam site (Akernative 1)... 41 Figure 4-13: Flow duration curve derived for Middle Veywa dam site (Alternative 1)... 41 Figure 4-14: Mean monthly inflows 1956-1997 — Altemative 1... 2 Figure 4-15: Maximum annual flows at Shwesayan gauging station (1972-1997) 43 Figure 4-16: Flood frequency plots (Pearson 3 and Weibull3) for Shwesayan GS Figure 4-17: Seasonal distribution of daily discharge at MY dam site for years 1956-1997. Figure 4-18: Saisonal flood frequency analyses (Dec 1*—May 31® using three different theoretical distributions.. nn Figure 4-19: PMP value proposed for Middle Yeywa compared to RMF envelope lines deriv Francou-Rodier equation. re 5. 44 ‘chematic Longitudinal River Section showing all Alternatives... Copyright © Poyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page vi Figure 5-2: Alternative Scheme Locations... 52 Figure 5-3: Characteristies of a Alternative I (circa 200 MW) 3 Figure 5-4: Characteristics of Alternative 2 (circa 300 MW). 55 Figure 5-5: Characteristics of Altemative 3 (circa 400 MW) 59 Figure 5-6: Characteristics of Alternative 4.1 (cirea 500 MW) 60 Figure 5-7: Characteristics of Alternative 5.1 (circa 690 MW). 61 Figure 5-8: Alternatives 1 and 4 63 Figure 5-9: Altematives 2 and 3. Figure 5-10: Alternative 5... Figure 5-12: Schematic Layout /eross section of the Headworks of the Alternative 2 Figure 5-13; Schematic Layout of the Headworks for Alternative 3... Figure 5-14: Schematic Layout of the Headworks for Alternative 4.1 Figure 3-15; Schematic Layout of the Headworks for Altemative 4.2 Figure 5-16: Schematic Layout of the Headworks for Alternative 5.1. Figure 5-17; Schematic Layout of the Headworks for Alternative 5.2. Figure 6-1: Limitation of transmission lines... seca Figure 6-2: Cascade Upper Yeywa- Middle Yeywa- Lower Yeywa in HEC-ResSim Alternative | (The red dots are the in- and outlets of the reservoirs at the different locations for the different Figure 6-3: Flow Duration Curve Figure 6-4: Tailwatcr Level at all Project Alternatives. Figure 7-1: Net preliminary output and hard costs for different FSL simulations between 255 m asl and 320 m ash...ess.sss secevenvannnnn 92 Figure 7-2: Net preliminary output for mean annual energy for different Installed Camstiet between 520 MW and 820 MW (with fixed FSL at 320 m asl and MOL at 300 m asl} ....ceme Figure 7-3: Net preliminary mean annual energy for different Installed Capacitiy scenarios between 520 MW and 820 MW (with fixed FSL at 320 m asl and MOL at 300 m asf) 8 Figure 7-4: Preliminary hard costs for different Installed Capacitiy scenario between 520 MW and 820 MW (with fixed FSL at 320 m asl and MOL at 300 m as) ae 4 Figure 7-5: Load and demand chart as of May 2013 . sen ema Figure 7-6; Section of Middle Yeywa Reservoir Simulation Case 2 (Jan-Feb 1956). 97 Figure 7-7: Section of Middle Yeywa Reservoir Simulation Case 2 (May 1956) 97 Figure 7-8: Middle Yeywa reservoir life expectancy for the possible range of trap efficiency of Upper Yeywa Reservoir..... 98 Figure 8-1: View of the HEC-RAS hydraulic model with location of the bridge 102 Figure 8-2: Discharge-Water level records at bridge downstream of the Upper Yeywa dam site... 103 Figure 8-3: Tailwater Level at Middle Yeywa power station. 103 Figure 8-4: Discharge capacity of the diversion tunnel. 105 Figure 8-5: Static Load Combinations .. i Figure 8-6; Pscudo-Statie Loads (Seismic Coefficient Method) Figure 8-7: Spillway discharge capacity...... 120 Figure 12-1 Mean yearly encrgy production for the years 1956-1997; Middle Yeywa 700 MW HPP — Final Pre-Feasibility design. 143 Figure 12-2 Mean monthly inflow, turbined flow and spillage for Middle Yeywa 700 MW HPP — Final Pre-Feasibility design, sit Figure 12-3 Mean monthly net energy produsion Middle Yeywa 700 MW HPP — Peaking non Peaking energy... 144, Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project '9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page vi List of Tables Table 3-1: Tentative geotechnical parameters of blocky to massy dolomite and brecciated dolomite bedrock mas: Table 4-1 : Myitnge River sub-catchment derived from HydroSHEDS/ASTER DEM ‘Table 4-2 : Estimation of water balance components for different sub-catchment Table 4-3 : Mean discharge for different alternatives of Middle Yeywa HPP Table 4-4 : Mean monthly inflows 1956-1997. ‘Table 4-5 : Maximum annual floods 1972-1997 - Shwesayan .. Table 4-6 : Fload discharges for return intervals 2 to 10,000 years at Shwesayan GS estimated based ‘on Pearson3 distribution; Creager factors computed. Table 4-7 : Flood discharges for return intervals 2 to 10000 years at MY dam sites (different alternatives) estimated based on Creager Formula for flood regionalisatio Table S-1 : Alternative 1 - Water Levels and Discharge Table 5-2 : Alternative | — Salient Features of Project Component Table 5-3 : Alternative 2 - Water Levels and Discharge... Table 5-4 : Alternative 2 ~ Salient Features of Project Components... Table S-5 : Alternative 3 - Water Levels and Discharge Table 5-6 : Alternative 3 ~ Salient Features of Project Components Table 5-7 : Alternative 4.1 — Water Levels and Discharge ‘Table 5-8: Alternative 4.1 ~ Salient Features of Project Components.. Table 5-9 : Alternative 4,2 — Water Levels and Discharge. Table 5-10 : Alternative 4.2~ Salient Features of Project Components... Table 5-11 : Alternative 5.1 — Water Levels and Discharge n:mnnnninnnnnninneesnsennnnin TS Table 5-12 : Alternative 5.1 ~ Salient Features of Project Components. 7S Table 5-13 : Alternative 5.2— Water Levels and Discharge ..nuneummnnnein Table 5-14 : Alternative 5.2 ~ Salient Features of Project Components. Table 6-1 : Cost Estimate Summary for all 7 alternatives (Direct Costs). ‘Table 6-2 : Staged Hydropower Development - Cost Estimate Summary (Direct C0St8)..n Table 6-3: Monthly evaporation in Mandalay (taken from Upper Yeywa Basic Design Report by Newjec, 2012)... Table 6-4: Key Features for Power Potential Evaluation nnn. Table 7-1 : Iterative approximation to an optimum MOL for Upper Yeywa a Land Case 2)... Table 8-1: Geotechnical Parameters PERE 1:2 Minium Aooepble Fantors of Safety or icing Table 8-3: Maximum Stress Level Table 8-4: Dam parameters Table 8-5 : Resultant Location at Dam Base. Table 8-6 : Factors of Safety Against Sliding Table 8-7 : Results of Stress Analysis for Spillway Bloc Table 11-1 : Hard Costs Summary... Table 12-1 Mean Annual Energy and Key features. Table 12-2 Mean yearly energy production for the years 1 Final Pre-Feasibility design. Table 12-3 Main results of the ESIEM ees Table 13-1 Principal Construction Quantities and Time Requirements thihinnnesiciidannninioneinsatienneses LAD lation run for Middle Yeywa 700 MW HPP - Final Pre-Feasibility 150 Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9Hx248990.10 Revo Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page vl Appendices Appendix 1 Dam Alternative Locations Appendix 2: Alternative Study ~ Access Roads and Transmission Lines Route Appendix 3: Alternative Study — Cost Estimate Summary Appendix 4: Middle Yeywa Cost Estimate - Bill of Quantities (BoQ) Appendix 5: Middle Yeywa Construction Schedule Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasiblity Studies Report Pago t 1 INTRODUCTION Lt General 12 Péyry Energy Ltd. (Péyry or “the Consultant”) has been contracted by SN Power (SNP or “the Client”) to carry out a Technical Pre-Feasibility Study for the Middle Yeywa Hydropower Project (HPP) on the Nam Tu River in Shan State, Myanmar. At this stage of the project development, the main objectives of the services are: i) Execution of a comprehensive site visit in a remote access. ii) Selection of a potential location for a hydropower scheme (or schemes) along the river reach and preparation of an Alternative Study Report or also called Project Inventory, Screening and Selection Report (this report). i) Preparation of a Technical Pre-Feasibility Study for the preferred alternative approved by SNP. Payry’s services for the Middle Yeywa Technical Pre-Feasibility Study commenced on 20 November 2014, after the signing of the Letter of Intent by both Parties. The following activities have been commenced in parallel with the preparation for, and the execution of, the site vis * Collection of all available data and project documents from SNP and MOEP (November 2014-January 2015). © Pre-visit to secure the logistics for the Site Visit (5 to 9 January 2015). * Project Studies Report, dated 26 January 2015. In January 2015 (14 to 21 January), a site visit was conducted by Péyry in close collaboration with representatives of the Client, SN Power and supported by MOEP to find suitable locations for the placement of a dam and all its appurtenant structures. During the site visit, the degree of karstification of the geology and the geomorphology in the Middle Yeywa Project area has been investigated, The river valley locations visited during the site visit were chosen largely based on the findings given in the earlier Project Studies Report, which considered installed capacities in the range of 200 MW to 600 MW. Based on the site visit and the findings on geology and potential hydropower projects given in the Site Visit Report dated 25 February 2015, three dam sites have been idemtfied as potential locations for a hydropower project. No geological/geotechnical restrictions (related to the foundation of structures or reservoir watertightness) to the development of an hydropower project in the available reach of the Nam Tu River being observed during the site visit, these three sites have been further pursued in the Project nyentory, Sereening and Selection Report in hands, The Project The Middle Yeywa HPP will be part of a hydropower cascade on the Nam Tu River, 80 km west of Mandalay. The location of the project is restricted downstream by the reservoir (185 m asl at FSL) of the existing Yeywa HPP (720 MW) and upstream by the tailwater (323 m asl) of the Upper Yeywa HPP (280 MW), which is currently being constructed by MOEP. Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid, 2a June 2018Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project '9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 2 13 14 141 ‘The currently unexploited length of river between the above mentioned schemes has a length of approximately 70 km, and in general has a regular slope between a succession of rapids of a few metres in height. However, at the downstream end of the available length of river, the topography made available to Poyry shows a succession of waterfalls of significant magnitude within a short distance of approximately 1.5 km, resulting in a total drop of circa 50 to 55 m. H Figure 1-1: Project Location Objectives The objectives of the Project Inventory, Screening and Alternative Report are as follows for each potential alternative: i) To make a preliminary assessment of the technical feasibility and possible layout of a scheme for each suitable dam site location, To make a preliminary estimate of the energy production potential ‘To make a preliminary cost estimate. iv) To make an economic evaluation based on initial cost estimate and energy calculations and to rank the different alternatives also taking into account other parameters like the technical feasibility, the complexity and the risk associated. AN ble Information and References ‘Topography The following data are available for this Study: Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 3 ‘Topographical map at 1:50,000 scale. Topographical map at 1:20,000 scale (Suntac, 2014). Stereographic aerial photographs of the project area (Suntac, 2014). Satellite information of the area. 14.2 Geology ‘The documents listed below are referenced in this chapter: ul 2] BI (4 6] [6] 7 [8] Pp) 9] a4 (12) 03] U4] ‘South-East Asia Geological Map Series: Geology: Burma (Central), 1:2°000°000; Robertson Research International Ltd, UK, June 1977. South-East Asia Geological Map Series: Landsat-1 Interpretation: Burma (Central), 1:2'000°000; Robertson Research Intemational Ltd, UK, June 1977. South-East Asia Geological Map Series: Burma, 1:2°000°000; Exploratory Notes; Robertson Research International Ltd, UK, June 1977. Geology and exploration geochemistry of the Yaanatheingi and Kyaukme- Longtawkno areas, Northem Shan States, Burma; Overseas Geology and Mineral Resources, Number 51; Institute of Geological Sciences, Natural Environment Research Council, London, 1977. Structural Map of Burma, Landsat-Imagery-Interpretation, Scale 1:2°000"000, 1980: in [7]. Geological Map of Burma, Scale 1:2°000°000, 1981. Bender, F.: Geology of Burma; Beitrige zur regionalen Geologie der Erde, Band 16; Gebr. Bomtrager. Berlin Stuttgart, 1983, Geology and Mineral Resources of Myanmar: Atlas of Mineral Resources of the ESCAP Region, Volume 12; Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations, New York, 1996, Milanovic, P.: Geological Engineering in Karst: dams, reservoirs, grouting, groundwater protection, water tapping, tunneling; ZEBRA Publishing Ltd. Belgrad, 2000. Jeannin, P.-¥.: Zum besseren Verstindais von Karst im Tunnelbau (For a better understanding of karst in tunneling); Geotechnik Vol. 30/3, pp. 186-192, 2007. Pyoung Sho Hydropower Project: Preliminary Desk Study October 2007 (Draft) by Colenco; Report No. PYS-57-PDS-October 2007. Yeywa Hydropower Project: Reconnaissance Geological Inve: Upper Yeywa Project, 30/05/08 — $/06/08, Colenco, June 2008. Report on Regional Geology of Myanmar; Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Jogjakarta, Indonesia, April 2010. Dasgupta, S. et al.: Next Impending Earthquake in Northem Burmese Are ~ Search for A Probable Precursor; Memoir Geological Society of India, No. 75, pp. 69-80, 2010. igation of ‘Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project '9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasbilty Studies Report Page 6 2 TOPOGRAPHY 2 Topographic Map (Suntac 2014) 22 A ground control survey has been carried out to develop a topographical map at 1:20,000 scale from a 1:50,000 Scale aerial photogrammetry of the Middle Yeywa Project area. For the above purpose, the project area has been divided into three distinct portions, and drawings showing contour lines at Sm height intervals have been prepared in DWG format to Myanmar Datum 2000 datum (MMD). The vertical datum used is Mean Sea Level. A GPS Survey has been carried out at every three kilometre along the stretch to establish horizontal control points (total of 48 ground control points). Also, vertical control points have been computed using EGM-96 Geoid Model. In addition, as requested by SN Power, 8 ground control points have been surveyed along the river profile to secure the elevation assessment, Digital Elevation Models For delineation of the catchment and sub-catchment areas based on GIS analyses two different digital elevation models (DEMs) were used: © HydroSHEDS/SRTM. + ASTER. HydroSHEDS is a mapping product that provides hydrographic information for regional and global-scale applications in a consistent format. It offers a suite of geo-referenced data sets (vector and raster) at various scales, including river networks, watershed boundaries, drainage directions, and flow accumulations. HydroSHEDS is based on high-resolution elevation data obtained during a Space Shuttle flight for NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The highest available spatial resolution of HydroSHEDS is 3 ares-second (approx. 90 meters at the equator). ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) is a Japanese sensor on board the Terra satellite launched into Earth orbit by NASA in 1999, The Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) derived from ASTER data covers the planet fom 83 degrees north to 83 degrees south, It was created by compiling 1.3 million visible/near infra-red images taken by ASTER, using single-pass stereoscopic correlation techniques with terrain elevation measurements taken globally at 30 meter resolution, ‘Morphology of the Nam Tu River AL the upstream end of the 70 km length of river, below the Upper Yeywa HPP, the ‘Nam Tu River generally flows through deep gorges with an average valley width at river level of around 70 m. The minimum width of the valley at river level is approximately 25 m and the maximum width approaches 160 m. The topography in the river valley is generally characterized by deeply incised V-shape gorges with steep slopes in the range of 30° to 60° and no significant widening, which will result in a narrow reservoir with only a limited storage capacity when compared to the mean yearly inflow. Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibllty Studies Report Page 7 24 From the information provided by the topographical mapping, there is no evidence of ‘wide alluvial terraces with gentle valley sides. However, the site visit demonstrated the topography is locally characterized by slight openings of the deep and narrow V-shaped gorge or wider valleys that may be large enough to either accommodate spillway and powerhouse constructed side by side or to locate a powerhouse at the dam toe. Itis clear that the morphology of the valley will govern the technical variants available for the scheme layout (in term of the river diversion, required width for the spillway...) Logistics and Access ‘The stretch of the Nam Tu River in the considered project area is characterized by an croded 900 m deep canyon on average into the Shan Plateau built of dolomitic limestone. This implies that the possible realistic construction accesses to any dam site in this reach are along the river are as follows: © From the Nam Tu Bridge. + From the lower end of the Nam Tu River by connecting the new built access road to the main road Mandalay-Lashio (upgrade of existing roads made of laterite and new access roads in easy morphology). + From the plateau down to the valley bottom by constructing @ new access road (difficult morphology). Reservoir Area and Capacity Curves The various elevation-capacity curves of the Middle Yeywa reservoir for all project, alternatives have been detived from the 1:20,000 scale topographic map obtained from ‘Suntac, 2014. These curves are given in below (see Figure 2-1). ‘evel tne ase (en Figure 2-1: Elevation- capacity curves of Middle Yeywa Reservoir Copyright © Poyry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project '9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibiity Studies Report Pepe 8 3 GEOLOGY 34 Regional Geology of Myanmar ‘The Myanmar region originates from (Reference [13]): i) liRing caused by the subduction of the northward moving India Plate below the Euro-Asian Plate in the East. along the Andaman Megathrust Zone, and ii) seafloor spreading centred in the Andaman Sea (see Figure 3-1; and [7] and [8]).. Figure 3-1: Generalized seismo-tectonic map of Myanmar with indicated project area (Figure 4 in [171) From West to East, Myanmar can be tectonically divided into four main, more or less N-S trending, units (Figure 3-2): * Arakan Coastal Zone. * Indo-Burman Ranges. * Inner Burma Tertiary Basin with Inner Volcanic Arc. © Sino-Burman Ranges (Eastern Highlands), divided into Northern Shan State and Southern Shan State areas. Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid, 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 9 re 3-2: Schematic presentation of major geotectonic units of Myanmar (Figure 4 in i) ‘The North — South trending Sagaing Fault (see also [3], [7], [8] & [12]) forms the major fault system of Central Myanmar and runs close to the West of the city of Mandalay (Figure 3-3). The same fault is often referred to as the Shan Boundary Fault. Close to the East of Mandalay, the Panlaung Fault approaches the Sagaing Fault from the SSE, and in the North, the Lashio Fault approaches from the NE. Sore Gaon 78. erat eaaee BE one-rermiany noc “"" ( eexazar noes 3-3: Major fault system in Southeast Asia; approximate location of project area is indicated (left: Figure 2 in [17], right: Figure 2 in [8))- Copyright © PByry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project '9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 10 ‘The Middle Yeywa HPP atea is located to the east of Mandalay and to the east of the above mentioned main fault zones, and to the south of the Lashio Paule within the Shan Plateau (Northem Shan State of the Sino-Burman Ranges). Lithostratigraphically, the Shan Plateau is built up of a sequence of dolomites, limestones, and some shales, referred to as Plateau Limestones (Group) or the Shan Dolomite Group [7], [8]& [13]). The sequence has a thickness of more than 3,000 m. The age of these sedimentary bedrock units ranges from Devonian (approximately 410 million years old) to Middle Triassic (approximately 230 million years old). Some authors divide this thick sequence into Lower and Upper Plateau Limestones with a sedimentary hiatus (interruption) between them ((3] & (13). Small scale geological maps (i.e. [1] & [6]) of Myanmar also indicate that the Middle Yeywa HPP area has a uniform covering of the above mentioned Plateau Limestones or Shan Dolomite Group (Figure 3-4). 11 map 1977 [1]; Right: Extract from geological map 4981 [6]; Middle Yeywa HPP area indicated by red frame. However, geological interpretations from Landsat-1 satellite pictures indicate that in the downstream part of the project area, Lower Paleozoic (Cambrian/Ordovician, approximately 540-440 million years old; sandstones, quartzites, silt and mudstones, conglomerates [7]) and Precambrian (540 million years; greywackes, mudstones, sandstones and locally dolomites and limestones [7]) bedrock units exist (Figure 3-5). Our own visual observations in this area could not confirm this alternative interpretation SE an ee ee a Bort Figure 3-5: Extract from Landsat-1 interpretation map 1977 [2]; Middle Yeywa HPP area indicated by red frame. ‘Copyright © Payry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 11 32 Project Geology 3.21 Geomorphology The bedrock types influencing this type of erosion and geomorphological geometry are described in the next paragraph. The relief of the Nam Tu valley shows some distinctive geomorphological features, which reflect the geological situation and the effects of erosion. The Nam Tu intersects and erodes the Shan Plateau in different phases which can easily be recognised in the middle section of the right river bank (see Figure 3-6): + The rim of the highest platcau level (between elevation 800 to 1100 m asl) is clearly marked in the central part to the west (right bank) of the river, but far away from the current river path (red line) in the left bank, * Below this uppermost plateau level a smaller intermediate plateau level (700 to 800 m asl) with a less pronounced rim can be observed (blue line). ‘* The third level is marked with a ide plateau ($00 to 700 m asl) ending in a rim to the narrow, deep and V-shaped gorge of the current Nam Tu flow path (green), iver level descends from approximately 300 m asl at the most upstream Section 3 to approximately 200 m asl at the most downstream Section 5. Figure 3-6: Main geomorphological features in the middle section of the area; for details ‘seo toxt above ‘Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasiblity Studies Report Page 12 3.22 Litho-Stratigraphy During the site visit to the five different sections, four main geological units of main interest could be distinguished: two bedrock types and two sub-recent to recent surface deposits. Beside these, the usual scree material and alluvial deposits (mainly boulders, cobbles, gravel and sand, only little fines) are present. From plateau top to river hotiom, the four main geologieal units can be briefly described as follows « Dolomitic Limestone (Figure 3-7): A bedrock with varying shades of grey and texture. The limestone (CaCO3, which reacts with a 10% hydrochloride acid mixture) is partly dolomitised (CaMg (CO3)2, which does not react with a 10% hydrochloride acid mixture) and brecciated with a heterogeneous distribution, and has widely spread cavities of several metres in size. This unit, which is several tens of metres in thickness, forms the uppermost cliff and rim of the geomorphology (red line in Figure 3-6). Its base is probably widespread, brecciated and easily erodible, and forms the intermediate level of the middle platform and less prominent rim (blue line in Figure 3-6) well above the project ire 3-7: Dolomitic limestone as the top layer in the project area; karst caves are widespread and clearly visible (left bank of Nam Tu). © Red Residual Soil: It covers the surface of the dolomitic limestone except on steep cliffs (Figure 3-8). This clayey material derives from tropical weathering of the bedrock and its thickness varies widely. * Dolomite (Figure 3-9): Very thick 100 m), mainly massy, partly moderately bedded bedrock of varying shades of grey and heterogeneously affected by tectonic impact. It ean be moderately to densely jointed, with the joints being tight or healed by white thin calcite. As is the ease with the dolomitic limestone, the dolomite is also partly heterogencously brecciated and thus partly weakened Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 13 from its usually high strength, Such zones or pots of @ few centimetres to few metres in size are easily eroded by flowing (river) water and can form caves. All high cliffs and the V-shaped river valley below the green line in Figure 3-6 are formed of this limestone. Figure 3-9: dolomit with no signs of karst; cliff of dolomitic limestone in Figure 3-7. the center, above the dolomite the Copyright © Payry Energy Lid 24 June 2016Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 14 Calcite Tufa (or travertine, see Figure 3-10): This material can cover the three geological units described above from below the top cliff (the red line in Figure 3-6) down to the Nam Tu River. When ground water, oversaturated with dissolved calcite, dissipates or flows out of the bedrock, pressure and temperature conditions suddenly change and calcite precipitates at the surface, either on rock or on the vegetation, and forms the typical appearance of tufa sediments, which are varying considerably. These tuff deposits can be observed cither (i) along small creeks from the elevations of dolomitic limestone down to the river, or (ii) as widespread areal deposits. Deposited on bare bedrock surfaces, or even upon red residual soils, the tufa appears very compact and hard and can hardly be destroyed by firm hammer blows. This material is classified as relatively old (hundreds to thousands of years). If the water runs over the vegetation and the calcite is precipitated on the plants, a very soft and porous (rotten organic material) tuft is present (young, recently precipitated material). As far as observed and judged during the site visit, the tufa deposits will not hindering required underground excavations, as it is the case at Upper Yeywa site. Figure 3-10: Three types of tufa deposits: Top left: soft tufa mixed with (rotten) vegetation; Top right: hard layer of tufa above red residual soil; Bottom: very hard tufa precipitated directliy on very hard dolomite. Copyright © Payry Energy Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 15 3.23 Rock Mass Discontinuities As shown in Figure 3-19 and Figure 3-23, the Shan Plateau is relatively unaffected by tectonic influences. Furthermore, outcrops of bedrock are often small oF not accessible due to the steepness of the gorge. The investigation of the bedrack discontinuities was not the main objective of the inspection and was thus limited during the January 2015 site visit. However, it will be one of the major tasks during the detailed geological mapping for the Feasibility Studies. ‘The brecciated areas within the dolomitic limestone and the dolomite, described above, might be related partly (due to their appearance) to syn-sedimentary, and partly to later tectonic activities. ‘These geotechnical important features have to be investigated in more detail during the Feasibility Studies to better understand their geometry and impact on the project. ‘Single joint and bedding discontinuities were measured during the inspection, However, the amount of data is too low for a statistical relevance. In the downstream river shore investigation, a larger area of dolomite is easily accessible and the number of measurements may show a tendency representative of the local pattern (see Figure 3-11). © The 21 joint data indicate the presence of four steeply dipping joint sets (approximate orientations: azimuth of dip/dip): 9 Jt: 250°/80" © 32:0307/70° 9 13:320975° 9 4: 080/85" «The 12 bedding data indicate a flat dip (5° to 25°) generally towards the south, with variations towards southeast and southwest. Figure 3-11: Stereographic plots of bedrock discontinuities in very strong dolomite on the right bank of the Nam Tu river. Left: 21 joint measures; Right: 12 bedding plane ‘measurements (both on lower hemispheres). ‘Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd 724 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasbilly Studies Report Page 16 3.24 Karst Phenomena For the design and construction of hydropower schemes, karst phenomena (dissolution of carbonate bedrock by running water) are always critical and might jeopardise a project. General aspects of karst phenomena, as outlined in Reference [9], and their occurrence in the project area are summarised in the Site Visit Report, dated February 25, In the following paragraphs the most important observations regarding karst are described and discussed in more detail. ‘On the uppermost plateau, limited by the red line in Figure 3-6, no single karst-feature ‘was observed. This is duc to the thick cover by residual soils and agricultural land. In the cliffs of the dolomitic limestone below the red line (see Figure 3-6), widespread caves of a few centimetres to several metres in width’ depth are observable (see Figure 3-7). These caves are formed from the karst dissolution of limestone, The occurrence of old and recent tufa is an evident sign of active karst in the area. However, its distribution mainly along small river creeks shows that the karst springs are located on higher levels in the area of the dolomitic limestone. The various springs observed at the level of Nam Tu River are not to be categorised as karst springs out of the dolomite. There source is surface water from higher levels running along the surface of the insoluble dolomite and through the porous tufa (see Figure 3-12). Figure 3-12: Various locations with tufa deposits deriving from surface water running from the top level (refer to text above) The caves observed within the dolomite (below the green line in Figure 3-6 are solely a result of mechanical erosion of heavily brecciated areas by river water (see Figure 3-13). In some areas the surface of the dolomite shows small karrens of only a few millimetres to a few centimetres in depth. These morphological features are visible in two forms (i) joints in the dolomite healed with pure white calcite, which is highly prone to karst dissolution (ii) mechanical erosion’polishing by the sediment load (sand, gravel, cobbles) in the river (see Figure 3-13). On the widely outcropping dolomite area along the Nam Tu River valley at Section (5), numerous vertical pots in the dolomite are present (see Figure 3-13). They have a meter and depth of several tens of centimetres, up to around one metre, These features are not of karst origin, but of mechanical erosion by cobbles and small boulders due to turbulent water flow. Copyright © Poyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Pege 17 Ee y Figure 3-13: Top: karern-like bedrock surface due to friction and polishing by sediment water; Middle: mechanically excavated pots in hard dolomite due toturoulent water with cobble/boulders; Bottom: eraded cave in brecciated dolomite. flowing ri Copyright © Payry Energy Ltd, 724 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990,10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 18 22S In the Geological Site Visit Report of SN Power (Appendix to Ref. (16]), Figure 9 presents a photograph of a “Collapsed Sinkhole located upstream of Nam Tu Bridge (MOEP Option 1)°.This hole has grown to a much larger size and reveals now clearly its reason of origin. Itis not a sinkhole as defined for karst areas (doline, see Paragraph 1.5 (6), above). It is a classical ground collapse of lose overburden material due to intemal erosion of gravelly material by flowing water (piping, see Figure 3-14). In karst sinkholes/dolines the water flows from top to bottom along the vertical axis of the sinkhole. The water in the present feature enters the hole laterally at its bottom and disappears again laterally at the same level. Further upstream of this water a small river is running in a creek, which suddenly disappears under the deposited alfuvial fan and erodes its way towards the Nam Tu valley within this lose material deposit. Figure 3-14: Ground collapse beside the road not far upstream of the Nam Tu bridge (this, ‘not a karst sinkhole) Hydrogeology The conclusion from oral information by the villagers on top of the plateau is that there are two different (and probably independent) groundwater levels in the Shan Plateau. For water supply they use collected rainwater from the roofs, ground water from classical shallow wells, or pump from deeper boreholes. ‘The shallow wells are only a few metres deep (the well in Figure 3-15 is 3m deep) and end in the red residual soil. Some interconnected channels with gravelly material might collect rainwater penetrating the ground and feed the wells with young groundwater. During the rainy season, the groundwater level is reported to be higher than during dry season, but there is generally only a small fluctuation. ‘An example of a second type of well, where water is pumped up through a deeper borehole, could not be visited. It was reported that one well is approximately 50m deep, but more information was not available. Itis assumed by Payry that this borehole ends in the dolomitic limestone underneath the residual soil and that the water represents the karst groundwater in this rock unit (meaning that the depth/base of the active karst zone is within this dolomitic limestone at the top level; see Paragraph 3.3) Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd, 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project '9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 19 Figure 3-18: Three metre deep well ending in red residual soils Assessment of Depth of Karstification based on Analogy Observations Situation in Well-known Karst Areas According to Reference [9], the base (depth) of karst fluctuation of the ground water level jon depends on the level and ‘The karstification depth (base of karstification), which is the depth to which the soluble rocks were exposed to the karstification process, may vary widely, The karstification Process decreases with depth and the progressive concentration of water in the upper part of the zone of saturation produces master conduits at that location, but causes no appreciable increase in flow and solution at greater depth (as observed during the site visit), The highest intensity of karstification is in the aquifer section with the largest storage capacity in the zone of water table fluctuations. Karstification decreases below the lowest ground water levels. The base of Karstification and the minimum water table level coincide. Generally, the slope of the base of karstification leads to the zone of aquifer discharge (karst springs). The most active karst channels are directly above the ground water level. The existence of karst drains below this is not excluded, however, they are rare and of limited transport capacities. In the zone above the lowest level of the water tables there are up to 3.3 times more karst channels and caverns than in the zone below these levels. ‘Copyright © Poyry Energy Lt. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibilly Studies Report Page 20 FORCTREULATION AND SOLUTION Figure 3-16: Relationship of depth of karstification with groundwater lev 1.1 In [9], (1) common conditions, (2) less common but not unusual condi Figure 4.3 in [9]. Theoretical elements of the karst development process allow the identification of two main factors which influence the geometry and thus the level of underground karst features (Reference [10]}: ‘* The presence of “cave development phases”. ‘The presence of karst prone horizons in the bedrock (or vice versa: the presence of horizons not able to be karstified). During the geological phases of time, valleys deepen into the surrounding bedrock masses. New springs appear and with each spring a new karst system, since karst channels and caves are mainly developed at the level of the springs (and not below them), Every old (dry) spring indicates an old cave development phase. Therefore, even a tentative assessment of the development of the spring’s locations allow improve the prognoses of karst channels considerably. Karst prone horizons in the bedrock are planes along which the karstification mainly takes place. The identification of such horizons in the geological strata succession allows the prognoses of the occurrence of karst features. Vice versa, the presence of low to not karst prone horizons/strata indicates possible barriers or base of karstification. Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid. 124 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 21 Figure 3-17:Figure 4 in [10] showing typical section across karst area (Quelle = Spring, unterirdischer Fluss = underground river), yellow line: base of karstification. 332 Situation Observed at the Middle Yeywa Project Areas ‘The most important findings from the five-day site visit to the Middle Yeywa Project area are those given below: In the Shan Plateau the sedimentary bedrock units remain more or less horizontal, with some undulations and slight dips in various directions. ‘The top layer is formed by dolomitic limestone, showing abandoned cavities of various sizes in the steep, inaccessible cliffs, presumably deriving from karstic dissolutions. ‘The bedrock unit in the bottom of the Nam Tu River gorge consists of dolomite and does not expose any signs of karst features. However, some areas of brecciated bedrock of varying size and shape are observable. Between these two main lithologies, however, due to poor outcrop conditions not yet confirmed, a layer of brecciated carbonates of unknown extent and thickness is assumed. On the plateaus at different levels the bedrock units are covered by red residual soil (fine grained) of various thicknesses. The steeper slopes are mainly covered by scree material (medium size grained) Vast tufa deposits along the courses of several small tributaries. running from higher slope levels down to the Nam Tu River, clearly indicate the presence of carbonate dissolution by running water. These derive most probably from karst Copyright © Poyry Energy Ltd, 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 22, springs in the top dolomitic limestone layer. Small rivers running on the Shan Plateau and further down the slopes to the Nam Tu River show less or no tufa deposits along their course. © The water supply for the villages on the Shan Plateau is secured by three different sources: collecting rainwater from the house roofs, from classical water wells (Type {) only few metres deep, collecting the groundwater in the residual soil (GWLI), and from boreholes (Type 2) several tens of metres deep by pumping groundwater from the dolomitic limestone (GWL2). Brglocolee Deitlales, Feast, Ste, Figure 3-18:Sketch of the most important findings in Middle Yeywa Project area; for details read text. 333 Interpretation of Findings in Middle Yeywa Project Area In analogy to the information presented in the Paragraph 3.3.1, the summarised findings from the site visit presented in Paragraph 3.3.2 can be interpreted as follows (sec Figure 3-18): * There exist two, probably independent, groundwater levels. The lower one (GWL2) is on a relatively high level within the Shan Plateau and within the dolomitic limestone. * Running rivers with tufa deposits are observable from elevations at the level of the dolomitic limestone and thus most probably derive from karst springs withis the dolomitie limestone. * The main volume of bedrock eroded by the river Nam Tu consists of dolomite, not showing typical karst phenomena (except some very superficial and small karrens due to thin joints healed with calcite). The only weak areas within this very strong bedrock are brecciated zones, prone to mechanical erosion. + ‘The extent and role of the brecciated layer between the dolomitic limestone and the dolomite are yet not clearly understood. Their geometry and impact on the katstfieation process, hits presence, if itis a horizon prone for karstfication or a bartier to Karstification, are unknown at this time. The current depth/base of karstification seems to be located somewhere inside the dolomitic limestone or Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 724 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project, 9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 23 34 341 directly above the upper limit of the dolomite, at the level of the groundwater level (GWL2). * The dolomite scems not to be affected by the karstification process. © If this assumption is correct, a lowering of the base of karstification to the present level of the river and thus affecting the Middle Yeywa Project area is not to be expected, since such process, if possible at all, will require thousands of ‘years and is far beyond the life eycle of a hydropower scheme. ‘© The breceiated zones within the dolomite have geotechnically uncritical properties, as they can be avoided or relatively simply improved with usual construction measures. This interpretation is valid for the entire stretch of Nam Tu River and all four identified dam locations. However, the current (Pre-Feasibility Phase) knowledge and interpretation of it has to be deepened and confirmed with thorough site investigations during the project’s Feasibility Studies. This interpretation of the karst-situation in the area of the Middle Yeywa Project is widely confirmed in the Review Report prepared by the renowned karst expert Dr. Petar Milanovic (Reference [19]. In this report an additional and very important argument was presented for the fact that only the top layer of dolomitic limestone is karstified and that the dolomite in the valley bottom is not: * The karstification process requires much more time than the normal river erosion. ‘+ In the middle section of the project area the Nam Tu River formed in the higher levels (dolomitic limestones, and probably brecciated layer, see Figure 3-18) quite large intermediate plateaus, reducing the speed of vertical erosion into the depth. The base of karstification could follow more or less the base of river erosion, + Later, in the dolomite, the Nam Tu River could erode into the dolomite quicker, forming the narrow V-shaped gorge. Reason for this change of type of erosion could be a fast tectonic up-lift of the area, forming the present Shan Plateau, Engineering Geology at Potential Dam Locations Alternative 1 (Option PIB / Location 1) The geology at this location is characterised by a slight opening of the deep and narrow ‘V-shaped gorge. High bedrock cliffs and large outcrops are therefore more distant from the river shores. Some brecciated zones are observed, but the outcrops are too small to judge their entire effect on the geotechnical impact. The most prominent feature at this location is a huge tufa deposit near the river (Figure 3-10, upper left picture) with a water discharge estimated (visually) to be in the range of 100 litres per minute, This tufa deposit can be excavated to uncover the dolomite bedrock and no local karst features were observed. From the geological-geotechnical point of view, this location is not the most favourable one, but still appears to presents a feasible project location at this point in the studies. Copyright © Poyry Energy Ltd, 24 June 2016Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 24 34.2 34.3 344 3.4.5 Alternative 2 (Option P1D / Location 2) Although the exact location was not visited directly during the site visit, a location a few hundred metres upstream was observed. The geology is characterised by some smaller dolomite cliffs reaching down to the riverbed. Tufa deposits are superficial, and very densely fractured brecciated areas exist in the dolomite on both sides of the valley. Nevertheless, this location is also appears to be feasible from the geological- gcotechnical point of view, at this stage of the studies. Furthermore, access roads can be relatively easily constructed along both river banks during the construction phase. Alternative 3, 4.1 and 5.1 (Option P2 / Location 3) ‘The geology at this location is characterised by a relatively wide and flat valley bottom with large outcrops of very strong and karst free dolomite directly along the river shores. Furthermore, vertical cliffs of dolomite reach down to the valley bottom on both sides of the river. As is the case with the project locations described further upstream, tufa deposits are present, but can be excavated to sound rock foundation conditions for the required project structures, Brecciated zones are also present, but they can be avoided or relatively easily treated to improve the ground, From the geological- geotechnical point of view, this location can be defined as the best and most favourable of all three project locations, and appears feasible at the point in the studies, Alternative 4.2 and 5.2 (Option P2 / Location 4) This alternative is located approximately 300-400 m upstream of the two rapids (ws of Alternative 3). The slope on the right bank ascents steeply to sub-vertical, whereas the left bank is first moderately inclined (about 45°), but becomes steeper on higher elevation. There is no flat area present as in Alternative 3. ‘The location could not be inspected directly during the site visit however there is no evidence that the geological-geotechnical conditions should be different to those observed at Alternative 3, except potentially a thicker cover of lose overburden material (rock-fall material) at the toe of the left slope/abutment. General Geotechnical Properties At all four evaluated locations, the dams will be founded in dolomite bedrock, Loose overburden material of alluvial and slope deposits, and weak tufa deposits will be excavated, ‘The following geotechnical parameters represent tentative values for the dolomite bedrock, taken from general design tables. During the Feasibility Studies drill core samples have to be tested in the laboratory to determine specific properties. Table 3-1: Tentative geotechnical parameters of blocky to massy dolomite and brecciated dolomite bedrock mass. 5-126 MPa - 1-40MPa i 25-35" UES of bedrock m: 50150 MPa ‘Cohesion of bedrock mass. 10-30 MPa ‘Friction angle of bedrock = 35 - 45°” Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibiity Studies Report Page 25 35 3.6 Ailowablelbearing capacity >5 MPa Fock mass clessincaliye: GSi-Classificaion ‘Conclusions =: Reservoir Watertightness and Stabili ‘The entire river stretch of the Middle Yeywa project area is located in the dolomite bedrock unit. As discussed above, no karst phenomena (except superficial tufa deposits) could be observed within the future reservoir arca. It is assumed that the brecciated areas within the dolomite bedrock are isolated. The foreseen site investigations during the Feasibility Studies (see Paragraph 3.9) will reveal more details about these features, and will easily be treatable if they show critical water permeability. During the site visit no signs were observed so far regarding large slope instabilities, which might be a critical event for the stability of 2 dam or reservoir overtopping. Nevertheless, some instabilities of smaller volumes (large wedges/boulders or lose overburden material) will certainly occur, but the resulting impact waves will be of non- critical height or wil be attenuated due to the long and uneven shorelines Consolidation grouting of the dam foundation below the excavated surface can currently be assumed to be required over the dam footprint in a 3 m grid, to a depth of 10 to 15m. The purpose of this consolidation grouting will be to homogenise the geotechnical parameters of the rock below the dam, A grout curtain, to reduce the permeability of the rock, and to prevent leakage below the dam, can currently be assumed to follow the common depth criteria of two thirds of the reservoir head along the dam heel, measured perpendicular to the dam foundation. Furthermore, a single line curtain, with holes systematically drilled by the split spacing method to 3 m centres is envisaged. Higher order holes would then be drilled as required based on the cement take by metre length of hole in each stage. The grouting requirements will be reassessed following each stage of site investig Construetion Materials Sources for construction materials have to be investigated in detail during the Feasibility Studies in the field and with laboratory tests, For local use by the villagers the brecciated parts of both the dolomitic limestone and the dolomite are used as gravel. Some sections of the river banks are covered with larger volumes of sand, however, the use of them depends where the dam sites will be located in relation to the deposits and the results of laboratory tests regarding geotechnical properties. Based on the current knowledge after the first site inspection, it is recommended to produce the required construction materials including concrete aggregates and sand from a quarry or underground excavations near the place of use. The use of dolomite is ‘more favourable than the dolomitic limestone, as it seems to have a higher strength. Detailed investigations (locations, volumes, geotechnical properties, trial blasting) have to be performed during Feasibility Studies and Detail Design Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Revo Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 28 37 Seismicity ‘As described earlier in this chapter (Figure 3-land Figure 3-3) Myanmar is located within a tectonically complex and active region. Figure 3-19 represents a structural interpretation of the Central Myanmar Basin and adjacent Shan Plateau from various satellite images. It becomes obvious that the Shan Plateau, where the Middle Yeywa HPP area is located, forms an island of considerably lower fault density than the surrounding areas. ‘This interpretation is also supported by the analysis of the Google Earth satellite images of the project arca and the detailed assessment made by the Consultant on the stereographic acrial photographs obtained from Suntac. Between the tail of the existing Yeywa reservoir and the Upper Yeywa dam site, only eight potential tectonic lineaments less than I kilometre long could be identified. It is likely these lineaments are correlated with major local joints or faults but as far as observable, these lineaments couldn’ be linked to the known active earthquake lineaments outlined in various figures of this report. Where accessible, it is recommended these lineaments are carefully inspected during the geological mapping of the project area at the Feasibility Studies stage. Figure 3-19: Left: Structural interpretation of the Central Myanmar Basin and adjacent ‘Shan Plateau from various satellite images , (Figure 6 in [18)); Right: Extract from the Structural Map of Burma [5]. The seismic activity of Northern Myanmar is assessed in [13]. According to these investigations most earthquakes occur to the West of and along the Shan Sagaing Fault (SSF) (see Figure 3-20). The strongest historically recorded earthquake (Ms 7.8, 1946) was located on the Shan Sagaing Fault north of Mandalay. The reason for this concentration of earthquakes is the subduction of the Indian Plate undemeath the Burma Sub-Plate (see Figure 3-21). GPS surveys indicate that 60% of the motion takes place along the Shan Sagaing Fault (Reference [18]). Copyright © Péyry Energy Ltd, 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 27 Figure 3-20: Seismicity maps based on earthquake catalogs: Left: ANSS catalog 1963- 2010; Right: USGSINEIC catalog 1973-2008, project area is indicated (Figures 3 & 4 in [17). The nearest regional fault, the Taungyi-Kyaukkyan Fault is located 11.5 km to the west of the most downstream location of the Middle Yeywa Project area (see Figure 3-4,Pigure 3-5 and Figure 3-22; Reference [13]). It runs N-S and forms an escarpment of the Shan Plateau towards the west. Its tectonic relation to the seismically active fault systems further to the west and south is not yet understood and will have to be investigated during the preparation of the future Feasibility Studies. Figure 3-21: Seismic cross section along an W-E traverse: SSF = Shan Sagaing Fault (Figure tb in (14). According to the Seismic Zone Map of Myanmar (revised version, 2012; Figure 3-22), the Middle Yeywa project area is located in the Seismic Zones III, near to Zones IV and Gopyright © Péyry Energy Ltd. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9Hx248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 28 38 V (Seismic Zone V is the maximum). The Zone IIT indicates arca of high damages, equivalent to MMI VII, and indicating PGA from 0.1g to 0.2g. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Myanmar (2012; Figure 3-22) for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475 years recurrent interval) indicates for the Middle Yeywa project area peak ground aeceleration (PGA) between <0.11g and 0.2g. =a becca pge_47s pga (a) HM - ve Se os MiB os:-06 mena ba eo Wi os1-04 21-03 Gion-02 Gacon Figure 3-22: Extracts from the Seismic Zone Map of Myanmar 2012 (lof) and from th probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Myanmar 2012 (right). Project area is indicated; note that the two maps are not 100% correlative regarding spacial distribution. Y¥es_cont_mat Mineral Resources Very often, power production with hydropower plants results in conflicts with the exploitation of economical mineral resources, since the water reservoir could cover potential mineral deposits. According to [4] and [8], the Middle Yeywa HPP area will not affect any of the currently known mineral deposits in the region (see Figure 3-23) Copyright © Péyry Eneray Ltd 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Pago 29 39 Extract from the Mineral Resource Map of Myanmar; scale 1:1°500°000, 1991; attachment to [8]; Middle Yeywa HPP area indicated by blue frame. Suggestions for Further Geological Field Investigations at Feasibility Studies Stage To confirm the above discussed geological ground model, detailed geological- geotechnical site investigations have to be conducted during the Feasibility Studies of the project. Based on the first suggestions presented in the Site Visit Report and related Review Report by Dr Petar Milanovic, these comprise the following activities, which will be executed most effectively and efficiently one after the other: * Preparation of topographic and bathymetric surveys at the preferred alternative location, Both surveys should result in topographic lines/maps at a scale of 1:500 or eventually 1:1°000. © Performance of geological detailed mapping mainly along the five topographic lines and the defined possible dam location areas, The main focus should be on the distribution of the geological units (dolomitic limestone ¢? dolomite) and the location and properties of the various brecciated zones. In addition the location and properties of eventual swallow-holes and proper karst springs and tufa deposits have to be mapped, as far as it is possible due to access and required efforts, Petrographic investigations of the geological units shall provide information regarding impurities, especially of the dolomite, having important impact on its karstification potential. Caves should be investigated in detail regarding their origin and eventual karstic water conducts. Access to the left bank of the river and valley slopes should be made possible. At least the first wo activities above should be conducted along the road east of the Nam Tu Bridge up to the rim of the Shan Plateau. Some river erossings at selected points should be foreseen (use of inflatable rubber boat). * Geophysical sounding has to be foreseen at selected locations (to be defined exactly after detailed geological mapping), Such could be: Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 30, © Geoeleetric sections on the Shan Plateau and across the uppermost cliff to investigate the karstification and groundwater table within the dolomitic limestone. o Hybrid seismic (combination of reflexion with refraction seismic) sections in the areas affecting the dam foundation and the appurtenant structures to detect the location and size of shallow sub-surface breceiated zones. * Boreholes with core recovery and in-hole testing drilled along the river and at higher elevations (see green drill-rig symbols in Figure 3-18; to be defined in 150 mis are reduced by 10%: Quorr= 150 m/s + (Qerg 150 mi/s)* 0.9 ‘As a result of this correction the mean annual runoff depth at GS Shwesayan reduces from 522 mm/a to 488 mmfa (-6.5%), which is within the plausible range of runoff depth derived from the water balance analyses, ‘The corrected Shwesayan Flow Series have been downscaled to MY project sites proportional to the catchment areas. An interpolation between the flow records observed at Shwesayan and at Hsipaw was not carried out, since the Hsipaw series have been considered to be affected by even higher systematic errors than the Shwesayan series. ‘They have therefore not been used for calculation of Middle Yeywa inflow series. The daily flow series and the flow duration curve derived for Middle Yeywa are given in Figure 4-12 and Figure 4-13 (Alternative 1). The resulting mean annual flows for the ifferent alternatives are listed in Table 4-5. 9 ean daly charge Midle Yeyua dam ste (ternative 1) 2956-1887 0 oo) 6) S800 Probability of exceedance I%1 Figure 4-13: Flow duration curve derived for Middle Yeywa dam site (Alternative 1) Copyright © Poyry Energy Lt 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasiblity Studies Report Page 42 47 48 Table 4-3 : Mean discharge for different alternatives of Middle Yeywa HPP Alternative 1 2 4285.2 3,415.1 ‘Mean discharge [m/s] 397 402 ai 412 Monthly Inflows ‘The mean monthly flows of the period 1956-1997 for the different alternatives are given, in Table 4-4 below. In Figure 4-14 the seasonal flow regime is shown for Alternative |. Table 4-4 : Mean monthly inflows 1956-1897 Alternative Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec 1 188 | 162 | 143 | 129 | 161 | 28 | 538 | 798 | 717 | 630 | 441 | 254 2 190 | 164 | 145 | 130 | 163 | 332 | $45 | 808 | 726 | 638 | 447 | 257 4285.2 404 | 168 | 148 | 133 | 167 | 340 | 557 | 827 | 743 | @52 | 457 | 263 3.41854 495 | 168 | 148 | 133 | 167 | s40 | 559 | 29 | 744 | @54 | 458 | 263 Mean monthly flows 1956-1997 Middle Yeywa Alternative 1 900 ano | i ; 12 i 1.0203 4 5 6 7 &8 9 w nu 2 month | Figure 4-14: Mean monthly inflows 1956-1997 — Alternative 1 Flood Frequency Estimation For the estimation of the flood frequencies at Middle Yeywa project site, the maximum annual peak flows observed Shwesayan gauging station in the period 1972-1997 have been used. Some revision of that data has been made by Stucky (2014) in the Upper Yeywa Technical Report (Report No 16 —Hydrology) using different sources. The data are listed in Table 4-5. ‘Copyright © Poyry Energy Ltd 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feashbllly Studies Report Page 43 ‘Table 4-5 : Maximum annual floods 1972-1997 - Shwesayan a i a Day Poa eve zie to 2as6 seco (sues | ver 1790 rao Y900 zoe Bea seats a » o Peak tow as announced projet aooumets 2) Masini anual day How at Stwesayan ©) Aanual peak flow at Swecayan ‘The flood frequency analyses of Middle Yeywa project has been based on the peak flows, given in column C of above table, A plot of the 26-year series does not reveal any significant non-stationarity (Figure 4-15). = Pi \y \ Figure 4-15: Maximum annual flows at Shwesayan gauging station (1972-1997) Different distribution functions (E1, AE, N3 P3 LP3 WB) and fitting methods (MM: Method of Moments, MLM: Maximum Likelihood Method, WGM: Mcthod of probability-weighted Moments WGM) were applied to the sample of maximum annual floods (1972-1997), The best fit was obtained for Pearson 3 (P3-WGM) and Weibull distribution (WB3-MM/WGM), which are shown in Figure 4-16. It was finally decided to use Pearson 3 distribution fitted by the WGM-Method. The resulting flood peaks for return intervals from 2 to 10,000 years are given in Table 4-6. Copyright © Payry Eneray Lid. 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9Hx248900 10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 44 It shall be emphasized that the extrapolation for return intervals > 100 year must be considered a rough estimate, and is subject to considerable uncertainty. Nevertheless the 10,000 year flood of 6,900 m*/s derived from the flood frequency analyses based on the 26-year sample and the P3 distribution is quite consistent with the 10,000 year flood defined for Lower Yeywa project (6,600 m’/s). ute probobl ios Pk mmm a (vee) Figure 4-16: Flood frequency plots (Pearson 3 and Weibull3) for Shwasayan GS In order to derive the flood frequencies for the different altematives of Middle Yeywa HPP the formula of Creager for flood regionalization has been applied (see Table 4-6). The resulting flood values for the dam sites of the different alternatives are given in Table 4-7. Table 4-6 : Flood discharges for return intervals 2 to 10,000 years at Shwesayan GS estimated based on Pearson3 distribution; Creager factors computed. ‘Shwesayan Creager-Formula Q=Ck*(0,386*A)*B [Catchment Area (km?] 29197 B=9,93587A"-0,048 Return Interval___| Flood discharge [m?/s} Ck. 2 2190 10,61 5 2860 13,85 10 3290 15,94 25 3830 18,55 50 100 1000 10000 Copyright © Poyry Energy Lts) 24 June 2076Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project ‘9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibilly Studies Report Page 45 49 ‘Table 4-7 : Flood discharges for return intervals 2 to 10000 years at MY dam sites (different alternatives) estimated based on Creager Formula for flood regionalisation Alternative Alternative 2 4285.2 Catchment Area [km?] 2a931_[ 25490 Return Interval Flood peaks [m?/s] 2097 2739 A weak point of above described analysis is the rather short series of maximum annual floods (26 years). which was used. The Consultant has therefore also tried to increase the length of the series by applying the following approack: © Correlation of maximum annual peak flows Shwesayan and maximum annual daily flows Salin (Period 1972-1997) => definition of a regression function, * Extension of peak flows Shwesayan based on regression function => increases sample size from 26 years (1972-1997) to 42 years (1956-1997) AA flood frequency analysis carried out for the extended series (42 years) resulted in very similar flood discharges than the analysis based on 26 years, also for flood discharges of very long retun intervals (> 100 years), Thus there is confidence in the results of the flood frequency analysis, in particular for return intervals up to 100 years. Diversion Floods in Dry Season In Figure 4-17 the hydrographs of cach individual year of the period 1956-1997 are shown, It can be seen that during the low flow period between mid of February and beginning of May floods do not occur and flows do not exceed 300 m/s. Before and after that date, the probability of flood occurrence increases with every week added to the low flow period. ‘The time schedule for the river diversion is therefore crucial and has to be optimized in order to minimize the costs and risks of diversion. Such detailed considerations will be made after selection of the preferred alternative. Once the diversion schedule is defined also the flood frequencies during that period can be determined. For the purpose of the report in hands and the preliminary design of the diversion tunnel, a design flogd during the dry season 50-year return period) equal to 900 m''s is considered (919 m’/s in the Upper Yeywa Basie Design Report by Newjec). Copyright © Poyry Energy Ltd 24 June 2015Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasibility Studies Report Page 46 | Figure 4-17: Seasonal distribution of daily discharge at MY dam site for years 1956-1997 If the full period of low flows from Dec I* to May 31" is considered the flood discharges estimated for Middle Yeywa are somewhat higher. The 50-year flood is in the order of 1,200 m’%s. The 20-year flood is approximately 850 m? to 900 m’/s (sce Figure 4-18 below). ‘The values have been estimated for Alternative 1, but can also be considered representative for the locations of the other alternatives. However, the values are not necessarily on the conservative side, as they refer to daily flood discharges and not to stantaneous peak floods. Ifthe reference period is reduced to mid of December ~ mid of May the flood peaks are significantly lower. For this initial phase of the study the use of 900 m*/s as a design flood during the “dry season” therefore seems to be adequate. ‘et ter yeas Figure 4-18: Saisonal flood frequency analyses (Dec 1" May 31*" using three different ‘theoretical distributions Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid. 24 June 2075Middle Yeywa Hydro Power Project 9HX248990.10 Rev 0 Comprehensive Preliminary Feasbbilily Studies Report Page 4? 4.10 Preliminary Probable Maximum Flood (PME) ‘The scope of this assignment docs not include a detailed PMF assessment. Therefore at stage of the study the PMF is only estimated based on some simple and preliminary considerations. ‘These considerations include the general hydro-meteorological characteristics of the basin as well as the PMF values defined for the neighbouring projects on Myitnge River. ‘The PMF values of the downstream and upstream projects are as follows: ity Study (Nippon Koei Co, 1999): 12, 469 m'/s ‘Upper Yeywa HPP: Pyaung Sho Preliminary Desk Study (Colenco 2007): 11,500 m?/s ‘Upper Yeywa Basic Design Report (Newjee, 2012): 10,500 m'/s, Upper Yeywa - Hydrology Study (Stucky, 2014) 7,400 ms While the earlier studies for Lower and Upper Yeywa hydropower projects were quite consistent with respect to the PMF magnitude, the latest study presented by Stucky (2014) advocates a significant reduction of the PMF for Upper Yeywa. However, in the view of the Consultant this reduction can hardly be justified. It is based on some very crude assumptions and considerations (Intercalary flood approach, Superimposed flood approach) completely ignoring the basic principle of a PMF assessment, which is a PMP-PMF transformation. It is therefore proposed to apply a PMF value which is consistent with the PMF assessment in earlier studies. A transformation of the Lower Yeywa PMF of 12,500 m/s to the different alternatives of Middle Yeywa project by using any of the standard flood regionalisation methods (e.g. Creager) gives a PMP value of approximately © 12,000 m¥s for Alternative 3, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 5.2 © 11,900 m'/s for Alternative 1 & 2 ‘Comparing these values to the 10,000 year floods (~6,600 m’Vs) estimated based on flood frequency analyses give a ratio PMF/QL0,000 in the order of 1.8 which is rather high. However, the value still is in the plausible range. The fact that the basin is located in one of the less humid parts of Myanmar (which is reflected in the historical flood records that have been the basis for the flood frequency analyses) does not mean that a very extreme PMP event cannot occur. The high summer temperatures will allow for rather high (theoretical) maxima of precipitable water, also in the Myitnge Basin. Hence there probably is a potential for an extreme precipitation event leading to extreme runoff peaks significantly higher than the value estimated for the 10,000 year flood In fact compared to the catchment size of approximately 25,000 km? a PMP of 12,000 ms is still rather low. This is also confirmed by the Francou Rodier equation which gives a value of K= 4,7 for the PMF estimate of 12,000 m’s (see Figure 4-19) Although the empirical Regional Maximum Flood Approach of Francou-Rodier is a completely different concept than a PMP-PMF assessment, it gives some evidence that Copyright © Péyry Energy Lid 24 June 2015