Market Analysis

April 05, 2024

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Potential Reversal Dates for U.S. Stocks

April 4; April 8-9; April 15-16
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(Note: dates are plus or minus 1-2 trading days, and can be
either a high or low)

Current analysis: The SPX saw its high for Thursday's session made in mid-afternoon
trading, here doing so with the tag of the 5256.59 figure. From there, a sharp decline was
seen into late-day, with the index dropping all the way down to a low of 5146.06. Overall
volume came in at an expansion from prior levels. And, coming on a day where a lower
low was registered, this is seen as a bearish technical indication.

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From the comments made in recent outlooks, the short-term view called for a correction
with our 20-day cycle, with the ideal path favoring a drop back to the 18-day moving
average or lower - and which was easily met with the decline into early this week. Having
said that, in terms of time, the trough for this wave was projected for April 8th, and with
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that there was still the potential for additional weakness to be seen.

With the above said and noted, the SPX is still making lower lows for the downward phase,
and we are moving towards the April 8th date, plus or minus a day in either direction. With
that, any reversal back above the 5257.98 SPX CASH figure would confirm this 20-day wave
(chart, next page) to have bottomed, a number which should start to come down in the
next day or three, depending on the action.

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Once this 20-day wave bottoms, a rally of some 3-5% off the low would be a normal
expectation, which is the low-end to average rallies for this wave. In terms of time, the
next upward phase of our 20-day component has been projected to play out into the April
15-16 timeframe, before attempting yet another short-term peak - there with the
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combination of 20 and 45-day cycles.

Having said the above, the SPX needs to remain above the 5089.92 figure in order to keep
the phasing intact for higher highs into mid-April. Otherwise, taking out that number
would tell us that the downward phase of our 45-day wave is already in force, though it
would not tell us how much additional decline to expect. However, there would be at
least the potential for a spike on down to the 70-day moving average on the SPX.

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Otherwise, higher highs into mid-April - if seen - would be favored to give way to another
correction into late-April, where the next 45-day trough is projected to form. In terms of
patterns, that decline would be favored to hold above the mid-January low of 4682.11
SPX CASH - which appears to be a key dividing line for the mid-term.
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Stepping back further, a 45-day trough into late-April would be favored to give way to a
rally of some 8-9% into late-May. From there, the bigger 180-day cycle would be in
topping range, with the same looking for a decline into the wide range of mid-June to
mid-July. In terms of price, there would be at least the potential for a spike on down to
test the 200-day moving average into that low.

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