Market Analysis

April 10, 2024

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Potential Reversal Dates for Gold:
April 12-15
(Note: dates can be plus or minus 1-2 trading days, and can either be highs or lows)
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Since the last outlook from Sunday evening, Gold has continued to post higher highs into
early this week, with the metal running all the way up to a Tuesday peak of 2384.50 -
before consolidating the action into late-day. With that, the upward phase of our bigger
72-day cycle is still in control, now having made higher highs at the April 9th mark.

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For the near-term picture, the upward phase of our 10-day cycle (chart, above) is well into
extended territory. In terms of price, our downside reversal point for this wave has moved
up slightly - now to the 2310.40 figure (June, 2024 contract) - and should continue to rise
in the next day or two, depending on the action.
ko

Stepping back slightly, from whatever peak that does form with our 10-day wave (who
knows from where), the probabilities will favor a drop back to the 10-day moving average
on its next downward phase. In terms of patterns, that decline seems favored to end up
as countertrend - holding above the prior 10-day low 2171.00.

Stepping back further, we know that it was the original reversal (back in late-February)
above the 2086 figure which triggered in the upward phase of our larger 72-day cycle.

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With that, the probabilities favored Gold to be in the midst of a 10% (minimum) to 14%
(average) rally phase, which has obviously played itself out - and then some.
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In terms of time with the above, the average rallies with our 72-day cycle were noted as
having taken 39 trading days or more before peaking, which suggested higher highs into
this April 9th date - which has now been satisfied. With that, the next peak of significance
should come from this 72-day wave, though from what price level this peak will come
from is speculation.

Once this 72-day cycle tops, the ideal path is looking for a decent correction to play out
into what looks to be late-May, where the detrend that tracks this wave is next projecting
it to trough. In terms of price, a normal correction with this cycle will see the 72-day

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moving average acting as the magnet, a move anticipated to end up as countertrend - due
to the position of the larger 310-day cycle (chart, above). Having said that, due to the
breakout to new all-time highs, there is at least the potential that the coming correction
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phase with the smaller 72-day wave will fall short of normal assumptions.

Notes for futures traders

I have a number of futures traders who are long Gold from the late-February reversal
(2086) to the upside, and have asked me for an exit/trailing stop point; however, I don't
trade futures - only the Gold ETF. With futures traders (and their accounts) everybody has
a different 'risk' level, and your timing has to be very precise. With the Gold ETF's, your
timing does not have to be as exact - and there are no commissions.

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Having said the above, if you are holding long Gold futures, potential trailing stops could
be (1) the current 10-day downside reversal point of 2310.40, or (2) the 72-day downside
reversal figure of 2168.40. If you choose #2, then a correction with the 10-day wave - one
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which gives way to a higher high - would see our 72-day downside reversal number
starting to move higher, but for now it remains locked in place.

Otherwise - and what I am watching - is for a divergence in both our Gold Timing Index
(chart, above), as well as our 72-day detrend indicator. The first of these we are now
starting to see, with a minor divergence having developed with our Timing Index. Having
said that, no divergence has yet to form with the 72-day detrend. Should both of these
occur on the same day, then I would be looking for an exit on my open GLD long. We'll see
how Wednesday's CPI day plays out, then reassess in the next report.

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