Journal review: 01

ENGI 9411: Probabilistic Methods in Engineering

Submitted by
Farhana Akhter
Student ID: 201693821
Date of Submission: September 25, 2018
Journal Information

Title: Probabilistic analysis of natural gas pipeline network accident based on Bayesian network

Authors: Jiansong Wu, Rui Zhou, Shengdi Xu, Zhengwei Wu

Journal: Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 46 (2017) 126-136

Year: January 2017

Outline:

The purpose of this research is to analyze natural gas pipeline network (NGPN) accident in

probabilistic framework. The combination of Bayesian approach and Dempster-Shafer evidence

theory are used for evaluating NGPN accident. The model is basis from the investigation of

previous relevant pipeline network accidents and expert judgments. Data is collected from five

experts for conditional probability distribution of Bayesian network nodes, which are combined

using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The proposed methodology is implemented in three

scenarios: to evaluate NGPN failures and serious accidents from causes to consequences, the

impact of secondary accidents, and the effects of emergency rescue on preventing loss.

Result and Conclusion:

The occurrence probabilities are estimated using the model for each of the three accident

scenarios. Consequences of NGPN accidents are measured in terms of casualties and economic

loss. In the first scenario, analysis of a typical NGPN accidents reveals that occurrence area and

occurrence time significantly affect the damage condition of gas pipeline facilities, casualties and

final economic loss. Second, while secondary disasters arise, the magnitude of casualties is

highest when large-scale urban fire occurs. Last, analysis suggests that effective response plays
can significantly reduce the occurrence probability of secondary disasters, which in turn may

reduce the number of casualties and economic losses.

Comment:

In this paper, the authors proposed an integrated approach of Bayesian network (BN) and

Damper-Shafer evidence theory to analyze natural gas pipeline network accident. The use of BN

has several advantages over other conventional methods such as Fault Tree, Event Tree, Bow-

Tie, etc. that it can represent multi-state variables, address conditional dependencies among the

variables, and enables dynamic risk analysis through probability updating [1]. On the other hand,

Damper-shaper theory can be useful to address the uncertainties due to ignorance or lack of

knowledge and combine the data from multiple sources. Hence, the use of both BN and Damper-

Shaper theory for NGPN accident analysis seems promising, however the following suggestions

could add value in this paper.

The experts’ profiles are not well defined as it does not clarify about the background of all

experts. In case of different experience and education level, a weighing factor can be assigned

for each expert [2]. In addition, an example could be helpful for the readers to illustrate how

Damper-Shaper theory is implemented. Sensitivity analysis should be conducted to identify the

most critical factors of NGPN accident. Both predictive and diagnostic analysis can be

performed in the BN model. The means of emergency response should be elaborated while its

effect has been analyzed in the model.

Reference:

[1] Khakzad, N., Khan F, and Amyotte, P., 2011, Safety analysis in process facilities:

Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches. Journal of Reliability Engineering

and System Safety 96 (2011) 925–932.

[2] Kum, S. and Sahin, B., 2015. A root cause analysis for Arctic Marine accidents from 1993 to

2011. Safety Science, Volume 74, Pages 206-220.