NBCFM Research | Industry Note
February 5, 2024
INDUSTRY RATING
Metals & Mining: Market Weight
Diversified Metals & Mining: Market
Weight
(NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
Research: NBCFM Base Metals
ResearchBaseMetals@nbc.ca
Analyst Shane Nagle, CFA
(416) 869-7936 ● shane.nagle@nbc.ca
Associate Adam Smiarowski, PhD
(416) 869-7535 ● adam.smiarowski@nbc.ca
Associate Sameer Keswani, MBA, CFA
(416) 869-8029 ● sameer.keswani@nbc.ca
Base Metals
Q4 Base Metal Producer Preview
Looking for Evidence Costs Are Finally Under Control
As a general observation, most companies in our coverage universe have noted easing inflationary
pressures. Pre-released Q4 production generally fell at the low-end of 2023 guidance and 2024
guidance thus far has been a disappointment. For the most part, we have assumed unit costs
edging up slightly Q/Q. As companies focus on operating results (and progress through project
ramp-ups) we expect costs and margins to improve during the year.
Investors Looking for Project Execution
Several companies within our coverage universe are scheduled to complete transformational
development projects this year, with some experiencing slower than expected ramp-up. Thus far,
valuations remain fairly well-supported; however, investors are most likely to reward those able
to hit production targets, keep costs under control and maintain development schedules. Key
development projects/operational updates within our coverage include: QB2 (TECK/B), Tucumã
(ERO), Enterprise/Kansanshi S3 (FM), Neves-Corvo ZEP (LUN), Moa Expansion (S), and Florence
(TKO).
Generally Conservative Where Guidance Remains Outstanding
We await 2024/near-term guidance for ERO, HBM, MTAL, S & TKO – our operating assumptions are
generally more conservative.
• MTAL: NBF 2024 EBITDA of US$216 mln (Consensus: US$194 mln). We forecast 12% higher
copper production than Consensus for the year (partially offset by 7% higher costs).
• ERO: NBF 2024 EBITDA of US$246 mln (Consensus: US$252 mln). We are modeling production
6% below Consensus with 16% higher costs - owing to more conservative ramp-up assumptions at
Tucuma and higher transportation charges for treating concentrate.
• HBM: NBF 2024 EBITDA of US$772 mln (Consensus: US$891 mln). We are modeling 3%
lower copper production and 6% lower gold production in 2024, partially offset by 4% lower
consolidated operating costs.
NBF Q4/23 Estimates Differ Materially for:
• TKO: NBF Q4 EBITDA of $62 mln (Consensus: $56 mln). TKO pre-released Gibraltar copper
production just above the high-end of 2023 guidance (and in line with NBF Estimates), which
along with higher grades is expected to have contributed to lower costs of US$2.06/lb in Q4/23
vs US$2.20/lb in Q3.
• FM: NBF Q4 EBITDA of US$330 mln (Consensus: US$385 mln). We model higher Q/Q
production costs to US$2.19/lb (up from US$1.42/lb in Q3/24) as Q4 production at Kansanshi
and Sentinel disappointed and Cobre-Panama was shut down during the quarter.
For required disclosures, please refer to the end of the document.
 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Figure 1: Summary of Targets/Ratings

Ticker Analyst Price (C$) Rating Target (C$)
Current Current Previous
Altius Minerals Corp. ALS-T Nagle $17.32 OP $23.00 $23.00
Capstone Copper Corp. CS-T Nagle $6.43 R Restricted
Ero Copper Corp. ERO-T Nagle $20.19 SP $22.50 $22.50
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM-T Nagle $12.35 SP $15.00 $15.00
Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM-T Nagle $7.23 SP $8.50 $8.50
Lundin Mining Corp. LUN-T Nagle $11.08 OP $12.50 $12.50
Metals Acquisition Ltd. MTAL-N Nagle US$12.88 OP US$15.00 US$15.00
Sherritt International Corp. S-T Nagle $0.29 SP $0.55 $0.55
Solaris Resources Inc. SLS-T Nagle $3.73 OP $8.00 $8.00
Taseko Mines Ltd. TKO-T Nagle $1.83 SP $2.25 $2.25
Teck Resources Ltd. TECK/B-T Nagle $52.10 OP $66.00 $66.00
Source: NBF Estimates

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NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Figure 2: Q4/23 NBF/Consensus Estimates and Company Specific Commentary

Q4/23 Q4/23 Q4/23 Production Estimates Cost Estimates
Adj. EBITDA (US$ mln) Adj. EPS (US$) CFPS (US$ mln) NBF NBF
Company NBF Cons NBF Cons NBF Cons Metal Q4/23 2023 2024 Metal Q4/23 2023 2024 Comments
Altius Minerals (ALS) C$11 C$12 C$0.04 C$0.12 C$0.14 C$0.17 Potash (C$ 000) 5,023.0 24,005.0 24,088.5 - We have incorporated pre-released attributable royalty revenue of US$15.8 mln for Q4/23.
Metals (C$ 000) 6,021.0 27,809.0 32,351.3 - Our 2024 estimates account for more conservative near-term potash production across the company's royalty
Renewables (C$ 000) 1,829.0 7,132.0 9,482.0 portfolio.
- Other catalysts in 2024 include: stabilization of potash prices and pending resource update at Silicon.

Ero Copper (ERO) $53.0 $52.4 $0.18 $0.24 $0.38 $0.47 Cu (t) 12,910 45,007 56,006 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $1.58 $1.64 $1.94 - Near-term guidance is expected to show a significant cost increase to reflect international concentrate sales,
Au (oz) 14,367 56,020 57,660 Au C1 (US$/oz) $595 $470 $640 BRL:USD exchanged rates and inflationary pressures
- Progress updates at Tucumã are expected to b trending towards commissioning in H2/24 (in-line iwth NBF
Estimates).

First Quantum (FM) $330 $398 ($0.34) ($0.10) ($0.46) ($0.02) Cu (t) 160,000 707,478 409,964 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $2.19 $1.89 $1.82 - We previously incorporated Q4/23 production results including 128,000 tonnes of copper sales and our estimates
Au (oz) 53,000 226,560 104,154 Ni C1 (US$/lb) $8.47 $9.22 $6.24 remain in-line with 2024-2026 guidance (excluding Cobre-Panama).
Ni (t) 7,000 25,939 30,893 - We anticipate an update with respect to balance sheet measures to addresses near-term liquidity needs via
potential covenant relief, non-core asset sales, additional debt capacity and/or potential rights offering.

Hudbay Minerals (HBM) $220 $241 $0.11 $0.16 $0.54 $0.56 Cu (t) 42,914 129,155 160,832 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $0.70 $1.01 $0.98 - We incorporate a significant increase in copper grades at Pampacancha in Q4/23.
Zn (t) 7,551 36,446 35,111 - We await three year operating guidance alongside Q4 results and are modelling production at teh lower end of
Au (koz) 90 288 308 previous 2024/2025 guidance.
Ag (Moz) 1.0 3.4 4.6 - Upcoming catalysts include: Copper World partnership announcement and commencement of feasibility study in
H1/24, regional exploration updates in Manitoba and initial drilling from Constancia satellite targets (incl. Maria
Reyna)
Lundin Mining (LUN) $400 $398 $0.09 $0.16 $0.49 $0.42 Cu (t) (100%) 103,337 314,799 390,128 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $1.98 $2.11 $2.09 - We incorporated 2023 copper production (100% basis) of 314,798 t as well as pre-releasesed provisional pricing
Zn (t) 50,719 185,161 209,274 Zn C1 (US$/lb) $0.51 $0.43 $0.45 adjustments for nickel and molybdenum
Ni (t) 3,729 16,429 12,347 Ni C1 (US$/lb) $2.48 $2.18 $2.85 - NBF Estimates remain in-line with company guidance for 2024 - 2026 production
- Neves-Corvo ZEP is expected to consistently achieve nameplate capacity during H1/24 .

Metals Acquisition (MTAL) $21 $30 ($0.23) ($0.03) $0.40 - Cu (t) 9,832 36,147 46,000 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $1.99 $2.39 $1.55 - We incorporated Q4/23 production of 9,832 tonnes copper at a C1 cash cost of US$1.99/lb.
- We look forward to a significant Reserve & Resource update in Q1/24 to confirm 10+ year mine life with additional
capital from ASX listing to help fund additional near-mine development opportunities like QTS Upper.

Sherritt (S) ($9) - ($0.12) ($0.05) ($0.16) ($0.08) Ni (t) (100%) 7,488 28,672 30,368 NDCC (US$/lb) $7.76 $7.20 $6.80 - We have incorporated 2023 nickel, cobalt and electricity production numbers.
Co (t) (100%) 660 2,876 3,336 - We anticipate an update on completion of Moa Phase 1 Expansion in H1/24 and recent cost cutting measures to
ease pressure on Balance Sheet throughout the recent decline in nickel prices.

Taseko Mines (TKO) C$62.0 C$56.0 C$0.09 C$0.07 C$0.20 C$0.18 Cu (000 lbs) 34,000 122,500 120,666 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $2.06 $2.39 $2.30 - We have accounted for Q4 production of 34 mln pounds of copper and 369,000 lbs molybdenum from the Gibraltar
Cu (t) 15,415 55,540 54,708 mine.
- For 2024, we model elevated grades from Gibraltar, partially offset by downtime associated with mill maintenance
and in pit crusher relocation.
- We await development updates on Florence construction and production guidance alongside Q4 results.

Teck Resources (TECK/B) C$1,715 C$1,675 C$1.45 C$1.27 C$2.23 C$2.79 HCC (mln t) 6.40 23.7 25.0 HCC (C$/t) $153 $147 $155 - We incorporated 2023 operating results and estimates remain in-line with the company's three-year outlook.
Cu (t) 103,500 296,300 506,800 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $1.93 $2.07 $2.03 - Progress updates at QB2 are expected to highlight more consistent operation and trending towards designed
Zn Conc. (t) 251,700 910,600 876,100 Zn C1 (US$/lb) $0.53 $0.57 $0.54 throughput by H2/24.
- We anticipate a modest share buyback alongside Q4 results following closing of coal sale to Nippon in Q1/24. We
also anticipate an update on the transaction with Glencore with closing planned for Q3/24.

Source: NBF Estimates, LSEG

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NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Figure 3: Comparison of NBF 2024 Operating Estimates with Company Guidance – NBF Estimates Remain Largely In-
Line with Company Guidance
2024 Production Outlook 2024 Cost Outlook
Company Metal Guidance NBF Metal Guidance NBF
Capstone Copper (CS) Cu (t) 190,000 - 220,000 Restricted Cu C1 (US$/lb) $2.30 - $2.50 Restricted

Ero Copper (ERO) Cu (t) - 56,006 Cu C1 (US$/lb) - $1.94

Au (oz) - 57,660 Au C1 (US$/oz) - $640

First Quantum (FM) Cu (t) 370,000 - 420,000 409,964 Cu C1 (US$/lb) $1.80 - $2.05 $1.98
Au (oz) 95,000 - 115,000 104,154 Ni C1 (US$/lb) $7.00 - $8.50 $8.40
Ni (t) 22,000 - 37,000 30,893 Cu AISC (US$/lb) $2.70 - $3.00 $3.05
Ni AISC (US$/lb) $8.40 - $10.40 $9.52

Hudbay Minerals (HBM) Cu (t) - 160,832 Consolidated C1 (US$/lb) - $0.98

Zn (t) - 35,111
Au (oz) - 308,242

Lundin Mining (LUN) Cu (t) 366,000 - 400,000 390,128 Neves-Corvo Cu (US$/lb) $1.95 - $2.15 $2.00
Zn (t) 195,000 - 215,000 209,274 Candelaria Cu (US$/lb) $1.60 - $1.80 $1.70
Ni (t) 10,000 - 13,000 12,347 Chapada Cu (US$/lb) $1.95 - $2.15 $2.00
Au (oz) 155,000 - 170,000 165,000 Zinkgruvan Zn (US$/lb) $0.45 - $0.50 $0.45
Eagle Ni (US$/lb) $2.80 - $3.00 $2.85
Caserones Cu (US$/lb) $2.60 - $2.80 $2.65
Metals Acquisistion (MTAL) Cu (t) - 46,000 Cu C1 (US$/lb) - $1.55

Sherritt International (S) Ni (tonnes) - 30,368 NDCC (US$/lb) - $6.80

Co (tonnes) - 3,336 Power (C$/MWh) - $30.00
GWh - attr. - 772
Taseko Mines (TKO) Cu (t) - 52,000
Cu (mln lbs) - 120.7

Teck Resources (TECK/B) HCC (mln t) 24.0 - 26.0 25.0 HCC (C$/t) $142 - $161 $155
Cu (t) 465,000 - 540,000 506,800 Cu C1 (US$/lb)* $1.85 - $2.25 $2.03
Zn Conc. (t) 565,000 - 630,000 876,100 Zn C1 (US$/lb) $0.55 - $0.65 $0.54

Source: NBF, Company Reports

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NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Figure 4: NBF Adj. EBITDA, Adj. EPS, and CFPS Estimates

Adjusted EBITDA, US$ mln Adjusted EPS (US$) CFPS (US$)
Q4/23 2023 2024 Q4/23 2023 2024 Q4/23 2023 2024

Altius Minerals Corp. Current C$10.7 C$55.9 C$55.7 C$0.04 C$0.22 C$0.40 C$0.14 C$0.71 C$0.74
Previous C$12.9 C$58.1 C$55.5 C$0.07 C$0.25 C$0.39 C$0.17 C$0.75 C$0.74

Ero Copper Corp. Current $53.0 $193 $246 $0.18 $0.85 $1.00 $0.38 $2.02 $2.05
Previous $53.9 $194 $283 $0.19 $0.85 $1.25 $0.39 $1.78 $2.03

First Quantum Minerals Ltd Current $330 $2,385 $1,747 ($0.34) $0.41 $0.16 ($0.46) $1.93 $2.17
Previous $311 $2,366 $1,747 ($0.36) $0.39 $0.39 ($0.45) $1.94 $2.17

Hudbay Minerals Inc. Current $220 $594 $772 $0.11 $0.14 $0.28 $0.54 $1.67 $1.97
Previous $273 $647 $874 $0.15 $0.20 $0.46 $0.62 $1.75 $2.12

Lundin Mining Corp. Current $400 $1,314 $1,628 $0.09 $0.38 $0.56 $0.49 $1.41 $1.84
Previous $420 $1,334 $1,628 $0.14 $0.43 $0.56 $0.47 $1.39 $1.84

Metals Acquisition Ltd. Current $21 $93 $216 ($0.23) ($0.27) $0.93 $0.40 $1.89 $3.13
Previous $32 $104 $211 ($0.03) ($0.05) $0.93 $0.62 $2.13 $3.38

Sherritt International Corp. Current C$(9.0) C$218 C$37 C$(0.12) C$0.22 C$(0.14) C$(0.16) C$0.25 C$0.11
Previous C$2.8 C$49 C$85 C$(0.10) C$(0.12) C$(0.10) C$(0.12) C$0.15 C$(0.14)

Taseko Mines Ltd. Current C$62.0 C$183 C$163 C$0.09 C$0.16 C$0.12 C$0.20 C$0.67 C$0.48
Previous C$66.5 C$187.5 C$175.8 C$0.09 C$0.16 C$0.12 C$0.21 C$0.68 C$0.47

Teck Resources Ltd. Current C$1,715 C$6,379 C$8,892 C$1.45 C$5.26 C$8.81 C$2.23 C$9.51 C$13.85
Previous C$1,977 C$6,641 C$8,892 C$0.47 C$4.28 C$(3.59) C$2.87 C$10.15 C$15.50
Source: NBF Estimates

Figure 5: Base Metal Producer Reporting Calendar

Reporting Date Reporting Time Conference Call Date Conference Call Time Conference Call Dial-In Number

Sherritt International Corp. 2024-Feb-7 After Market Close 2024-Feb-8 10:00 am EST 1-800-717-1738 (TF) / 1-289-514-5100 (TF)
First Quantum Minerals Ltd 2024-Feb-20 After Market Close 2024-Feb-21 9:00 am EST 1-800-319-4610 (TF) / 1-604-638-5340 (TF)
Lundin Mining Corp. 2024-Feb-21 After Market Close 2024-Feb-22 10:00 am EST 416-764-8646 / 1-888-396-8049 (TF)
Teck Resources Ltd. 2024-Feb-22 Before Market Open 2024-Feb-22 11:00 am EST 416-915-3239 / 1-800-319-4610 (TF)
Capstone Copper Corp. 2024-Feb-22 Before Market Open 2024-Feb-22 04:00 pm EST 416-764-8650 / 1-888-664-6383 (TF)
Hudbay Minerals Inc. 2024-Feb-23 Before Market Open 2024-Feb-23 11:00 am EST 416-764-8650 / 1-888-664-6383 (TF)
Ero Copper Corp. 2024-Mar-07 After Market Close 2024-Mar-8 11:30 am EST 1-800-319-4610 (TF) / 1-604-638-5340 (TF)
Altius Minerals Corp. 2024-Mar-11 After Market Close 2024-Mar-12 9:00 am EST 1-888-396-8049 (TF) / 1-416-764-8646 (TF)
Metals Acquisition Ltd. TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
Taseko Mines Ltd. TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Source: NBF, Company Reports

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NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Figure 6: Target/Rating/Multiple Summary – Target Methodologies Remain Largely Unchanged.

Ticker Analyst Rating Target NAVPS Target Derivation Methodology
(C$) (C$)

Altius Minerals Corp. ALS-T Nagle Current OP $23.00 $20.47 1.50x NAV (33%); 25.0x EV/2024 CF (33%); 25.0x EV/2025 CF (33%)
Previous OP $23.00 $20.45 Unchanged
Change - - ↑

Capstone Copper Corp. CS-T Nagle Current - - - Restricted

Previous - - - Restricted
Change - - -

Ero Copper Corp. ERO-T Nagle Current SP $22.50 $15.62 1.10x NAV (50%); 6.5x EV/2025 CF (50%)
Previous SP $22.50 $15.10 1.10x NAV (50%); 7.0x EV/2024 CF (25%); 7.0x EV/2025 CF (25%)
Change - - ↑

First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM-T Nagle Current SP $15.00 $20.13 0.80x NAV (50%); 6.0x EV/2024 CF (25%); 6.0x EV/2025 CF (25%)
Previous SP $15.00 $20.10 Unchanged
Change - - ↑

Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM-T Nagle Current SP $8.50 $7.11 0.90x NAV (50%); 6.0x EV/2024 CF (25%); 6.0x EV/2025 CF (25%)
Previous SP $8.50 $6.44 Unchanged
Change - - ↑

Lundin Mining Corp. LUN-T Nagle Current OP $12.50 $11.52 1.00x NAV (50%); 6.5x EV/2024 CF (25%); 6.5x EV/2025 CF (25%)
Previous OP $12.50 $11.48 Unchanged
Change - - ↑

Metals Acquisition Ltd. MTAL-N Nagle Current OP US$15.00 US$11.89 1.00x NAV (50%); 7.0x EV/2025 CF (50%)
Previous OP US$15.00 US$12.41 1.00x NAV (50%); 6.5x EV/2025 CF (50%)
Change - - ↓

Sherritt International Corp. S-T Nagle Current SP $0.55 $1.32 0.65x NAV
Previous SP $0.55 $1.30 Unchanged
Change - - ↑

Taseko Mines Ltd. TKO-T Nagle Current SP $2.25 $3.90 0.85x NAV (50%); 6.5x EV/2024 CF (25%); 6.5x EV/2025 CF (25%)
Previous SP $2.25 $3.88 Unchanged
Change - - ↑

Teck Resources Ltd. TECK/B-T Nagle Current OP $66.00 $48.97 1.20x NAV (50%); 7.0x EV/2025 CF (50%)
Previous OP $66.00 $52.53 Unchanged
Change - - ↓

Source: NBF Estimates

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NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Figure 7: NBF Base Metal Comparison/Sensitivity Tables

P/NAV EV/2024E CF EV/2025E CF

S.TO 0.22x
TECKb.TO 3.1x FM.TO 3.9x
AMC.TO 0.26x
ADZN.V 0.31x
HBM.TO 4.4x HBM.TO 4.4x
SLS.TO 0.35x
FIL.TO 0.44x
LUN.TO 5.0x MTAL.K 4.9x
TKO.TO 0.46x
FM.TO 0.61x
TKO.TO 7.2x TECKb.TO 5.8x
TMQ.TO 0.62x
ALS.TO 0.85x
FM.TO 7.8x ERO.TO 6.2x
FOM.TO 0.89x
HBM.TO 1.01x
MTAL.K 11.7x TKO.TO 7.1x
TECKb.TO 1.06x
MTAL.K 1.08x
ALS.TO 25.7x ALS.TO 25.1x
ERO.TO 1.29x
0.00x 0.50x 1.00x 1.50x 0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x

NAV Sensitivity to 10% Δ in Cu Price NAV Sensitivity to 10% Δ in Pb + Zn Price NAV Sensitivity to 10% Δ in Au + Ag Price
TKO.TO 53.8%
FOM.TO 6.7% ADZN.V 26.0%
HBM.TO 40.7%
ERO.TO 33.4% HBM.TO 11.2%
FM.TO LUN.TO 6.0%
32.2% FIL.TO 9.4%
LUN.TO 30.6%
AMC.TO 5.2% SLS.TO 8.0%
SLS.TO 20.5%
FIL.TO 15.1% AMC.TO 6.0%
TECKb.TO TMQ.TO 3.0%
13.5%
LUN.TO 4.8%
MTAL.K 13.3%
TMQ.TO 12.3% ADZN.V 2.3% ERO.TO 3.5%
FOM.TO 11.3% FOM.TO 3.3%
AMC.TO 7.2% TECKb.TO 1.3%
TKO.TO 2.2%
ADZN.V 6.6%
ALS.TO 2.1% HBM.TO 0.6% TECKb.TO 1.4%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Source: NBF Estimates, LSEG

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NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Disclosures
PRICE, RATING AND TARGET HISTORY: I = Initiation, OP = Outperform, SP = Sector Perform, UP = Underperform, UR = Under Review, R = Restricted; T = Tender (Source: Factset, NBF)

Capstone Copper Corp. Rating History as of 02/02/2024

OP:$4.50 OP:$5.65 OP:$6.25 OP:$7.75 OP:$7.00 OP:$7.50 OP:$8.25 OP:$8.00 SP:$8.00 SP:$7.25 SP:$4.50 SP:$4.00
02/24/2021 04/08/2021 04/28/2021 05/19/2021 07/15/2021 10/21/2021 01/11/2022 02/02/2022 04/18/2022 05/13/2022 07/05/2022 07/18/2022
8
7
6
5

Price (CAD)
4
3
2
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
SP:$4.75 SP:$4.50 SP:$5.50 OP:$6.50 OP:$7.25 R:NM OP:$7.25 OP:$7.75 OP:$7.25 OP:$6.75 OP:$6.50 OP:$8.25
10/12/2022 10/31/2022 11/20/2022 01/08/2023 02/12/2023 03/22/2023 04/12/2023 04/17/2023 07/11/2023 10/16/2023 11/03/2023 01/07/2024
OP:$8.75 R:NM
01/24/2024 01/31/2024

Closing Price

Ero Copper Corp. Rating History as of 02/02/2024

SP:$26.00 SP:$27.50 SP:$30.00 SP:$21.00 SP:$19.50 SP:$20.50 SP:$21.50 SP:$16.50 SP:$16.00 SP:$17.50 SP:$20.00 SP:$21.00
04/08/2021 05/05/2021 05/19/2021 01/11/2022 02/02/2022 03/09/2022 04/07/2022 07/05/2022 07/18/2022 10/12/2022 01/08/2023 01/18/2023
35

30

25

Price (CAD)
20

15

10
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
SP:$22.00 SP:$24.50 SP:$25.50 SP:$26.50 SP:$30.00 SP:$26.00 SP:$22.50 R:NM SP:$22.50
02/12/2023 03/08/2023 04/17/2023 05/09/2023 08/04/2023 10/16/2023 11/03/2023 11/06/2023 11/14/2023

Closing Price

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First Quantum Minerals Ltd. Rating History as of 02/02/2024

OP:$29.00 OP:$32.00 OP:$35.00 OP:$40.00 OP:$38.50 OP:$37.50 OP:$36.50 OP:$37.00 OP:$40.00 OP:$48.00 OP:$46.00 OP:$35.00
02/17/2021 04/08/2021 04/28/2021 05/19/2021 07/15/2021 07/28/2021 09/09/2021 10/21/2021 01/11/2022 04/07/2022 04/27/2022 07/05/2022
50

40

30

Price (CAD)
20

10

0
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
OP:$32.50 OP:$32.00 OP:$30.00 SP:$30.00 SP:$28.00 SP:$29.00 SP:$36.00 SP:$38.00 OP:$39.00 OP:$37.00 OP:$40.00 SP:$36.00
07/18/2022 10/12/2022 10/26/2022 12/15/2022 01/16/2023 02/12/2023 03/06/2023 04/17/2023 04/26/2023 07/11/2023 07/26/2023 10/30/2023
SP:$18.00 SP:$15.50 SP:$15.00
11/28/2023 01/07/2024 01/16/2024

Closing Price

Hudbay Minerals Inc. Rating History as of 02/02/2024

SP:$11.50 SP:$12.50 SP:$13.00 SP:$14.00 OP:$12.50 OP:$13.00 OP:$12.50 OP:$11.50 OP:$8.50 SP:$7.75 SP:$7.50 SP:$8.50
02/19/2021 04/08/2021 05/19/2021 07/15/2021 09/09/2021 04/07/2022 04/18/2022 05/10/2022 07/05/2022 07/18/2022 10/12/2022 01/08/2023
12
11
10
9
8

Price (CAD)
7
6
5
4
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
SP:$8.75 SP:$8.00 SP:$9.25 SP:$10.50 SP:$8.25 SP:$8.50
02/12/2023 02/24/2023 04/17/2023 07/11/2023 10/16/2023 01/07/2024

Closing Price

Lundin Mining Corporation Rating History as of 02/02/2024

SP:$15.50 SP:$16.25 SP:$17.00 SP:$15.50 SP:$14.00 SP:$13.00 SP:$12.25 SP:$14.00 SP:$9.50 SP:$9.00 SP:$8.50 SP:$8.25
02/19/2021 04/08/2021 05/19/2021 07/29/2021 09/09/2021 10/21/2021 11/23/2021 04/07/2022 07/05/2022 07/28/2022 10/12/2022 10/26/2022
18
16
14
12
Price (CAD)

10
8
6
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
SP:$9.25 UP:$8.75 UP:$9.00 SP:$8.75 SP:$10.50 SP:$11.00 SP:$11.50 SP:$11.25 OP:$12.00 OP:$13.00 OP:$12.50
01/08/2023 01/13/2023 02/12/2023 02/23/2023 04/17/2023 07/11/2023 08/03/2023 10/16/2023 11/02/2023 01/07/2024 01/15/2024

Closing Price

9
 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Sherritt International Corporation Rating History as of 02/02/2024

SP:$0.65 SP:$0.60 SP:$0.55 SP:$0.65 SP:$1.00 SP:$1.10 SP:$0.75 SP:$0.60 SP:$0.70 SP:$0.80 SP:$0.75
04/08/2021 05/19/2021 09/09/2021 02/10/2022 03/10/2022 04/07/2022 07/05/2022 07/18/2022 07/28/2022 10/20/2022 01/08/2023
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50

Price (CAD)
0.40
0.30
0.20
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
SP:$0.80 SP:$0.75 SP:$0.70 SP:$0.65 SP:$0.60 SP:$0.55
01/24/2023 02/12/2023 07/11/2023 07/27/2023 10/16/2023 01/07/2024

Closing Price

Taseko Mines Limited Rating History as of 02/02/2024

SP:$2.65 SP:$3.00 SP:$3.50 SP:$3.25 SP:$3.00 SP:$3.25 SP:$3.00 SP:$3.25 SP:$3.00 SP:$1.85 SP:$1.75
02/25/2021 04/08/2021 05/19/2021 07/15/2021 08/05/2021 10/21/2021 02/02/2022 04/07/2022 05/05/2022 07/05/2022 07/18/2022
3.50

3.00

2.50

Price (CAD)
2.00

1.50

1.00
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
SP:$2.00 SP:$1.90 SP:$2.40 SP:$2.50 SP:$2.75 SP:$2.50 SP:$2.40 SP:$2.20 SP:$2.25
10/12/2022 11/04/2022 01/08/2023 02/12/2023 02/26/2023 05/04/2023 07/11/2023 10/16/2023 01/07/2024

Closing Price

Teck Resources Limited Rating History as of 02/02/2024

OP:$30.00 OP:$32.50 OP:$36.00 OP:$38.50 OP:$37.50 OP:$43.00 OP:$48.50 OP:$55.00 OP:$52.50 OP:$55.00 OP:$60.00 OP:$65.00
02/18/2021 04/28/2021 05/19/2021 07/15/2021 07/27/2021 09/09/2021 10/21/2021 01/11/2022 02/02/2022 02/24/2022 04/07/2022 04/18/2022
70

60

50 Price (CAD)

40

30

20
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24
OP:$55.00 OP:$52.50 OP:$60.00 OP:$56.00 OP:$65.00 OP:$70.00 OP:$72.50 SP:$70.00 SP:$67.00 OP:$70.00 OP:$68.00 OP:$66.00
07/05/2022 07/27/2022 10/12/2022 10/27/2022 01/08/2023 02/12/2023 04/17/2023 04/26/2023 07/11/2023 07/27/2023 01/07/2024 01/16/2024

Closing Price

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 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

Altius Minerals Corporation Rating History as of 02/02/2024

I:OP:$26.50 OP:$26.00 OP:$25.00 OP:$24.00 OP:$23.00
12/14/2022 02/12/2023 07/11/2023 08/09/2023 01/07/2024
26
24
22
20
18

Price (CAD)
16
14
12
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24

Closing Price

Metals Acquisition Limited Rating History as of 02/02/2024

I:OP:$14.00 OP:$15.00
12/13/2023 01/07/2024
14

13

12

Price (USD)
11

10

9
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24

Closing Price

RISKS:

CS

Development Risk: Capstone’s ability to successfully complete expansion opportunities at Cozamin and development of Santo Domingo are subject to many risks and uncertainties including the
completion of feasibility studies, obtaining/maintaining permits from local governments and obtaining adequate financing.

Commodity Risk: Capstone’s valuation is primarily levered to long-term copper prices. Commodity prices are impacted by several external factors out of the company’s control, including interest
rates, inflation and supply/demand fundamentals.

ERO

Exploration/Development Risk: Ero Copper’s ability to successfully complete development work and deliver exploration success sufficient to warrant future expansion opportunities at its Caraíba
complex and Xavantina properties is subject to many risks and uncertainties, including upgrading mineral resources, updating the mine plan and obtaining adequate financing (if necessary).

Commodity Risk: Ero Copper’s valuation is primarily levered to long-term copper prices. Commodity prices are impacted by several external factors out of the company’s control, including interest
rates, inflation and supply/demand fundamentals.

Variable Costs: Ero Copper is exposed to fluctuations in input costs, such as labour, fuel, consumables and power. Any increases in these variables could negatively impact operating and capital
costs on both the company’s operating and development projects.

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 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

FM

Commodity Risk: First Quantum’s valuation is primarily exposed to fluctuations in copper prices. These prices are impacted by several external factors outside the company’s control, including
interest rates, inflation and supply/demand fundamentals.

Development risk: First Quantum’s ability to successfully complete its current expansion and development initiatives are subject to many risks and uncertainties.

Geopolitical: First Quantum’s portfolio includes several operations in Zambia, including Kansanshi, Sentinel and Enterprise, where the government has recently increased taxes and implemented
policies that could adversely affect the profitability of the projects. Re-start of the Cobre Panama mine is uncertain and will require a new mining contract with the government.

HBM

Commodity Risk: Hudbay’s valuation is primarily levered to long-term metal prices especially copper, zinc and gold. Commodity prices are impacted by several external factors out of the company’s
control, including interest rates, inflation and supply/demand fundamentals.

Variable costs: Hudbay does not hedge input costs, such as labour, fuel, consumables and power. Any increases in these variables could negatively impact operating and capital costs on both the
company’s operating and development projects.

Development risk: Hudbay relies on developing additional projects to maintain production growth. The ability to successfully complete a project is subject to many risks and uncertainties including
the completion of feasibility studies, mineral resource conversion, labour disputes and obtaining adequate financing.

LUN

Commodity Risk: Lundin’s valuation is primarily levered to long-term copper, zinc and nickel prices. Commodity prices are impacted by several external factors out of the company’s control,
including interest rates, inflation and supply/demand fundamentals.

Currency Risk: Two of Lundin’s operations are currently based in Europe where revenue is generated by commodity prices (primarily in U.S. dollars) with costs largely incurred in euros and Swedish
krona. Additionally, the company’s primary operation, Candelaria is located in Chile, exposing the company to earnings volatility from fluctuations in exchange rates.

Development risk: Lundin’s ability to successfully complete expansion objectives across each of its operations is subject to uncertainties regarding the completion of optimization initiatives,
obtaining/maintaining permits from local governments, successful resource conversion and securing required financing.

Political Risk: A significant portion of Sherritt’s valuation is driven by operations in Cuba, where political risks remain heightened.

Financing & Liquidity Risk: S is levered and the ability to pay outstanding debt is subject to repayment risk from the company’s ability to generate FCF. Cuban government receivables remain
outstanding.

Commodity Prices: Sherritt’s cash flows are subject to fluctuations in copper and nickel prices, and other relevant commodities (oil, gas, fuel).

TKO / TGB

Development Risk: A portion of TKO’s valuation is tied to the Florence PTF, which employs a non-conventional method to mine copper and is currently in the testing phase.

Reserve Depletion: As with many mining companies, TKO relies on brownfield and greenfield exploration to increase reserves and sustain production levels.

Financing & Liquidity Risk: TKO is levered and the ability to pay the outstanding debt is subject to repayment risk from the company’s ability to generate FCF. TKO’s cash flows are subject to
fluctuations in copper prices (unhedged) and other relevant commodities (fuel).

Speculative Risk: We ascribe a Speculative risk rating given the company’s growth initiatives at Florence and Yellowhead require several de-risking initiatives including further exploration success,
permitting, funding and development milestones prior to being achieved.

TECK.B / TECK

Commodity Risk: Teck is a diversified resource company and depends on sales of primarily coal, copper and zinc to generate its earnings. As such, Teck’s valuation remains indirectly exposed to
the pace of growth in China (the world’s largest copper importer) and global steel production (the primary use of metallurgical coal). Teck generally does not hedge its future production, leaving the
company exposed to price volatility.

Development Risk: Teck’s ability to successfully complete its expansion and development objectives is subject to many risks and uncertainties, including the completion of feasibility studies,
upgrading mineral resources and grade estimates and labour disputes.

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 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

ALS

Commodity Prices: Altius’s cash flow is levered to fluctuations in commodity prices. The company has a diversified commodity mix compared to other royalty companies which focus primarily on
precious metals. Specifically, revenue is derived from potash, copper, thermal coal, iron ore, renewable energy and other metals. Price movements in commodities are impacted by several external
factors out of the company’s control, including interest rates, inflation and supply and demand fundamentals.

Non-Operator: By not operating the assets within its royalty portfolio, Altius does not directly control the production or development of each asset. Any delays in the forecasted production schedule
could negatively impact revenue and indirectly impact the valuation of the company. There can be no assurance that third-party production forecasts can be met or that production disruptions
including temporary or permanent shutdowns can be avoided.

Financing and Dilution: In our model, Altius generates sufficient cash flow to cover current financial obligations. Management has stated it intends to fund future acquisitions with internally
generated cash flow and the available credit facility; however, there is no guarantee this will be sufficient to fund opportunities (including maintaining its majority interest in Altius Renewables) as they
arise, potentially leading to future equity and/or debt offerings

MTAL

Exploration/Development Risk: CSA mine has existing Ore Reserves of ~six and a half years of operation. Additional ore included in the life of mine plan and financial analysis is based on
estimated Inferred Resources or projections of mineralization down dip of Inferred Resources. An inability to replace or increase Reserves would adversely impact the long-term economic viability of
the business.

Commodity Risk: MTAL’s business is highly dependent on copper prices. Commodity prices are impacted by several external factors out of the company’s control, including interest rates, inflation
and supply/demand market fundamentals.

Cost Reduction Strategy: MTAL’s investment strategy is to increase efficiency and improve operations to reduce site operating costs. The expected reduction in total direct site operating costs and
increase in mined tonnages may not be realized in the short term or at all as a result of operational and work cultural changes introduced by ownership.

ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES

Altius Minerals Corporation
Capstone Copper Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Ero Copper Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10
First Quantum Minerals Ltd.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. 2, 3, 5, 7
Lundin Mining Corporation
Metals Acquisition Limited
Sherritt International Corporation 2, 3, 5, 7
Taseko Mines Limited 2, 3, 5, 7, 260
Teck Resources Limited 2, 3, 5, 7
Adventus Mining Corporation 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Arizona Metals Corp.
Filo Corp.
Foran Mining Corporation 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 262
Solaris Resources Inc.
Trilogy Metals Inc.

LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES:

2 National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
3 National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for this issuer within the past 12 months.
4 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
5 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months.
6 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has a non-investment banking services related relationship during the past 12 months.
7 The issuer is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within the past 12 months.
8 National Bank Financial Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the next 3 months.
9 As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days
after the end of the most recent month), National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this issuer.
10 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication.
11 A partner, director, officer or research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months provided services to this issuer for remuneration other than normal
course investment advisory or trade execution services.
12 A research analyst, associate or any other person (or a member of their household) directly involved in preparing this report has a financial interest in the securities of this issuer.

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 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

13 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of National Bank Financial Inc., is an officer, director, employee of, or serves in any advisory capacity to the issuer.
14 A member of the Board of Directors of National Bank Financial Inc. is also a member of the Board of Directors or is an officer of this issuer.
15 A redacted draft version of this report has been shown to the issuer for fact checking purposes and changes may have been made to the report before publication.

260 An NBF analyst attended a tour of Taseko's Gibraltar mine in south-central B.C. on October 4, 2023. A portion of the expenses was paid by the issuer.
262 An NBF analyst attended a tour of Foran's McIlvenna Bay project in east-central Saskatchewan on October 5, 2023. A portion of the expenses was paid by the issuer.

RATING DISTRIBUTION

Outperform Sector Perform Underperform

Coverage Universe Ratings Distribution 63% 34% 0%

% of Rating with Investment Banking Relationship 62% 62% 50%

DISCLOSURES

GENERAL: This Report was prepared by National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), a Canadian investment dealer, a dealer member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and an
indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and may be subject to change without notice.
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report.

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 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

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Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each:
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operational risk.

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 Industry Note
NBCFM Research | February 5, 2024

DISSEMINATION POLICY: Please click on this link to access NBF's Research Dissemination Policy.

COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES: Please click on this link to access Company Related Disclosures

16