Inventory 2013 2014

Beginning of period
Increases / (decreases)
End of period 15,100

Inventory as % of COGS 29.7%

Inventory turnover 3.4x
Days Inventory outstanding (DIO) 108 days

Cost of sales (enter as -) -53309 -50869

365

2013 2014
Accounts payable
Beginning of period
Increases / (decreases)
End of period 7,594

AP as % of COGS 14.9%
Days payables outstanding (DPO) 54 days

Short term debt and current portions of long term debt

Beginning of period
Increases / (decreases) 801
End of period 1,620

Long term debt

Beginning of period
Additional borrowing / (pay down) 527
End of period 19,326

Interest expense on long term debt 747

Weighted average interest rate
 % of interest expense paid in cash 100%
% of interest expense accrues as PIK 0%

interest exp on long term / end of period2.8%

end of period in this month *WAIR in this month=856

13 14
Retained earnings
Beginning of period
Plus: Net income step 6
Less: Common dividends step 5 -2533
End of period 25,729

Net income step 1 5,508

Dividend payout ratio step 2 3 46.0%
Common dividends step 4 2,533

Other comprehensive income / (loss)

Beginning of period
Plus: Income / (loss)
End of period 803

Net income 4411 5508

common dividend /net incom=dividend payout ratio

common dividend =net income*dividend payout ratiio
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
15,100 17,253 17,056 18,425 19,269
2,153 (197) 1,369 844 1,219
17,253 17,056 18,425 19,269 20,488

32.1% 30.9% 31.5% 31.2% 31.3%

3.1x 3.2x 3.2x 3.2x 3.2x
117 days 113 days 115 days 114 days 114 days

-53789 -55233 -58534 -61801 -65397

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

7,594 7,774 8,114 8,529 9,042

180 340 415 513 507
7,774 8,114 8,529 9,042 9,549

14.5% 14.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6%

53 days 54 days 53 days 53 days 53 days

1,620 2,979 3,555 4,019 4,538

351 576 464 520 492
2,979 3,555 4,019 4,538 5,030

19,326 26,682 30,552 36,094 40,799

7213 3,870 5,542 4,706 5,124
26,682 30,552 36,094 40,799 45,923

747 856 1011 1143 1287

2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

15 16 17 18 19

25,729 30,152 39,442 48,851 58,570

6,567 6,759 6,925 7,131
-2728 2,723 2,651 2,794 2,837
30,152 39,442 48,851 58,570 68,537

7,381 6,567 6,759 6,925 7,131

37.0% 41.5% 39.2% 40.3% 39.8%
2,728 2,723 2,651 2,794 2,837

803 2,163 2,163 0 0

0 0 0 0
2,163 2,163

7381 6567 6759 6925 7131

 2020
20,488
1,125
21,612

31.3%
3.2x
114 days

-69152

2020

9,549
559
10,107

14.6%
53 days

5,030
506
5,536

45,923
4,915
50,838

1424
2.8%
 100%
0%

20

68,537
7,344
2,942
78,823

7,344
40.1%
2,942

0
0

7344
 HUL SBI % Return HUL % ReturnSBI

Date Closing Price Closing Price (% change formula) (% change formula)

855.4 260
1/2/2017 865.9 269.2 1.23% 3.54%
1/3/2017 917.75 292.6 5.99% 8.69%
1/4/2017 934.95 289.45 1.87% -1.08%
1/5/2017 1067 288.55 14.12% -0.31%
1/6/2017 1079.6 273.6 1.18% -5.18%
1/7/2017 1155.75 312.55 7.05% 14.24%
1/8/2017 1219.75 277.35 5.54% -11.26%
1/9/2017 1173.9 253.75 -3.76% -8.51%
1/10/2017 1237.45 305.8 5.41% 20.51%
1/11/2017 1272.45 320.45 2.83% 4.79%
1/12/2017 1367.85 309.5 7.50% -3.42%
1/1/2018 1369.35 312.75 0.11% 1.05%
step1 step2

step3 Mean (average) 4.09% 1.92%

4 Variance 0.19% 0.78%
5 SD 4.37% 8.80%
6 Cor 0.257
7 Portfolio 50% 50%

8 Rp 3.01%

(W1SD1)^2+
(W2SD2)^2+
2*W1W2SD1SD2
*r) SD (Portfolio) 5.39%
9

((port*sd)^2+(port*sd)^2+(2*port*sd*port*sd*cor))^0.5
Rp

w*HUL returns w*SBI returns Scenario Building

HUL SBI
0.61% 1.77% 0% 100%
2.99% 4.35% 10.0% 90.0%
0.94% -0.54% 20.0% 80.0%
7.06% -0.16% 30.0% 70.0%
0.59% -2.59% 40.0% 60.0%
3.53% 7.12% 50.0% 50.0%
2.77% -5.63% 60.0% 40.0%
-1.88% -4.25% 70.0% 30.0%
2.71% 10.26% 80.0% 20.0%
1.41% 2.40% 90.0% 10.0%
3.75% -1.71% 100.0% 0.0%
0.05% 0.53%
step10 step11

Range is -1 to +1

W*mean return (hul )+ W*mean return(SBI)

 (W1SD1)^2+
W*mean (HUL)+ (W2SD2)^2+
W*mean(SBI) 2*W1W2SD1SD2*r)
Rp SD
1.92% 8.80%
2.14% 8.05%
2.36% 7.32%
2.57% 6.62%
2.79% 5.98%
3.01% 5.39%
3.22% 4.90%
3.44% 4.53%
3.66% 4.30%
3.87% 4.25%
4.09% 4.37%

step12 step13