Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
Food Security in Pakistan: Historical & Contemporary Perspective
Author: Samaha Chaudhry. Published in the Friday Times on August 21, 2023.
The hunger situation in Pakistan is the most abysmal
in South Asia. According to one UNOCHA report, it is
worse than even Afghanistan. Our number of stunted
children – twelve million – is highest in the region;
over half of our population, women and children
particularly, experience some kind of deficiency, and
according to the Global Hunger Index, our hunger
problem is ‘serious’.
To say that such headlines were shocking would be a
lie. After all, haven’t we all heard it before, from the
day we first heard our elders talk about Pakistan? We
are a poor country and most of our compatriots can
barely afford one nutritious meal in a day. Therefore,
our firefly is gratitude – its home must reside in the
gardens of those who can eat comfortably.
Melancholic and spiritual as this portrayal is, it
makes it all the more important to investigate the
origins of such great lack. We must ask why. Why is it
that this image was fit into our minds from the very
beginning? Was our nation born poor? Were we
always starving, even a thousand years ago? Is the
white man right when he speaks of his burden – how
he civilized the brown brute who was in need of rescue
from his own savageness?
In answering such a question, our finger can never
stray from colonialism: the single most destructive
force the world has experienced in the past few
centuries. Although there was no uniform system in
the subcontinent with regards to cultivation, the
process was not commercialized – at least in the
modern sense. In many areas, subsistence farming
was practiced; peasants grew their own food, and a
variety of food was grown to cope with the nutritional
needs of a household. Even with the caste system in
place, the peasants were not entirely without
protection; if nothing, they still had share in the
harvest. They were still food secure.
Then, entered the colonial powers, and the British
emerged as victors among them. With the introduction
of commercial farming, indigenous systems of
production were decimated on a massive scale. No
longer did the poor peasant grow a variety of food for
the dietary needs of his family unit. Instead, he was
encouraged to grow the crops which would generate
the most cash – and specialize in them
This may sound profitable to our ears, but one must
note here that the farmer, independent in cultivation
of his nutrition before, was now made forcibly
dependent on the modern market. The South Asian
farmer encountered the newborn classes of
middlemen, and feudal lords whose sole purpose was
to extract as much rent as possible for the British and
their own pockets. With what meagre wages he had
left for himself, he was now expected to buy other
kinds of food from the market, and meet his dietary
needs. Thus, he became subjected to price shocks,
inflationary and interest mechanisms – all the while,
sinking deeper into poverty himself.
Moreover, commercial farming had to be done on
certain lines – making use of modern technology,
always in search of innovation to maximize profit.
Farmers who could not afford this new schema of
production were forced to take loans, often from
middlemen, who found even better grounds to exploit
them, and entrap them in debt cycles. Stripped of
autonomy, and in most cases, his share of profit, the
peasant encountered true systematic alienation in
Marxist terms for the first time. Life in pre-colonial
times may have been difficult, but now, the hunger of
liberal modernism was catching up – a unique
monster in its own right.
It is no surprise, then, to see that while agricultural
production was peaking in India, its peasants were
pushed deeper into poverty and hunger. The common
man was clearly not the beneficiary of the schemes of
modernism and productivity erected to apparently
civilize him. After all, he was prohibited to touch even
salt from the seas. No, the cash was for the masters
and their friends.
This backdrop of food insecurity still haunts us today.
Pakistan, born an agrarian economy, was poor in part
– and a very large part – because it was made that
way by its colonial masters and their colluders – many
of them in assemblies and governments. Most feudal
families today were likely given land by the British in
exchange for their cooperation. After all, dissidence
never went unpunished in the British Empire, at least
not when it came to the brown skin.
Today, Pakistan stands at its worst food security
junction in history; the floods of 2022 decimated most
of our crops and impacted 34 million people – to put
this into perspective, farmland the size of Czech
Republic was drowned. Food shortages since the
pandemic has resulted in an increase in overall price
of food – although, Pakistan has had a relatively
stable wheat production, we have been importing food
since the lockdown. The economic crisis further
compounds this inaccessibility; in March 2023 alone,
food inflation stood at 47% in urban areas and has
touched approximately 50.1% in rural. Moreover, IMF
loans are expected to further devalue the rupee;
farmers may hit targets and export, but at what cost?
The government is not likely to give greater subsidies
in production, anyway, given the structural
adjustment policies it must now implement.
On top of this, there is a new hyena we must combat,
which was never our hyena at all: the climate crisis.
Although one may argue that the Earth’s climate has
always been shifting, there is no doubt that human
activity in the past century has greatly accelerated the
pace of change – and worsened its impacts. And the
brunt of this assault of nature is borne not by those
who caused it, but those they impoverished. For
instance, Pakistan emits less than 1% of the world’s
emissions, and yet is the eighth most vulnerable
nation to its consequences. From deadly heatwaves to
melting glaciers to lethal flash floods, we do not have
the privilege of escaping global warming.
It is essential, therefore, that we begin adapting to the
crisis, seeing as we cannot mitigate it – not unless we
join hands with all the countries in the world and
revamp the entire global financial system – which
would be idyllic, but unfortunately, we cannot afford
to be idealists. Being the nation facing the brunt, we
are forced to root our feet in realism and pragmatism.
Flood embankments, mass relocation of individuals
from flood plains, strengthening disaster management,
and improving water storage facilities seem to be key
to this process. However, greater research and
investigation is obviously needed – on a district-to-
district level – to discover adaptation strategies most
suited to the needs and climate of Pakistan. The hour
is upon us, and we succeed only as long as we put the
vulnerable first. Perhaps, that, too, is an idyllic dream.
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Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team

Authority and Democracy: Envisaging Local Government In Pakistan

Author: Samaha Chaudhry. Published in the Friday Times on March 22, 2023.
Musharraf’s death in February harkens us back to the
decades-long debate of democracy versus
authoritarianism, the rule of the people versus that of
unelected military leaders. Public and media opinion
in recent years has started shifting in favor of the
democratic tide, although this in no way implies active
enthusiasm for the system. A healthy, functioning
democracy for most Pakistanis remains an elusive
dream.
There are active reasons for this phenomenon, the
foremost being that whenever Pakistan has ever called
itself a democracy, it has been engulfed in the
poisonous fumes of mostly oligarchic and dynastic
politics with superficial representation for common
citizens at best. Military rule is officially over and yet,
it seems that even under so-called democratic
conditions, the country is on the brink of collapse and
the shots are being called by those in Rawalpindi. We
only have foreign reserves to pay for two more weeks
of imports; inflation is at an all-time high of 37% and
Pakistan continues to rank at number 145 in the Free
Speech Index.
Meanwhile at the time of Musharraf, we had a Prime
Minister assassinated (a similar event nearly occurred
under Shehbaz Sharif’s government just a few months
ago), an entire Lawyer's Movement and the
constitution once again ‘held in abeyance.'
One might argue that the primary difference between
a democratic and authoritarian rule is that
irrespective of how easily the common man can put
food on his family’s table, important principles are
upheld in the former— a universal franchise of all
those contracted under a body politic.
However, it is precisely on the irrespectives that the
issue ought to be erased. As utilitarian as it sounds,
no system ought to prevail simply on principle alone,
unless it practically distinguishes itself as
qualitatively better form of reality. The differences
between democracy and authoritarian regimes matter
most to those who care about the constitution, and
universal enfranchisement, and the notion of
representation without taking into consideration all
that it does not structurally encompass.
They do not take into consideration that principles do
not fill stomachs; they do not prevent journalists from
being murdered and entire villages being put to death
(until the 25th Amendment in 2018) for the crime of
one. Therefore, if the notion of ‘universal
enfranchisement’ exists, it does so only in
adulteration. Rates of high political apathy already
show the alienation of the common man from the
political system, the oppression of minorities and the
systemic disenfranchisement of women from the
political scene. Clearly, enfranchisement is limited to
either those from a particular class, or a very brave
heart — in Pakistan, the latter often join the ranks of
those eventually disgruntled with the mess of the vote.
What is being argued is not that authoritarianism is
better than democracy — or that principles of
organization are utterly useless. Rather, what I am
arguing is that for many on-ground, democracy can be
as bad as authoritarianism.
This does not entirely mean that the system itself
needs to be entirely discarded; there are constitutional
safeguards with regards to the issue of true
representation — the foremost being the envisaging of
local governments in Pakistan.
It is forgotten often that Pakistan has a three-tiered
federal system — Article 140-A mandates provincial
governments to devolve “political, administrative and
financial responsibility and authority to the elected
representative of the local governments.” Technically,
the local governments are responsible for carrying out
the implementation of provincial laws — and within
the ambit of the former, have their own executive and
legislative capacity, albeit to a limited extent.
The purpose is obvious: it is recognized that in order
for self-governance to truly function in a country as
massively populated and conflicted as Pakistan, what
is needed is democracy on a grassroots level, starting
from the tehsil. Only then can we dream of a sufficient
degree of accountability, tehsil to tehsil.
However, local governments have their own push-
backs, the first and foremost being the political
establishment itself. Aside from election delays and
bureaucratic hurdles, it is not uncommon for local
governments to be dismissed entirely. PTI did this
recently in March 2021. Even more notable was the
2019 occasion when fifty-eight government officials
were sent home packing after the indictment of the
Punjab Local Government Act.
Unless and until these barriers are unmade, the era of
meaningful representation – the backbone of any
functional democracy – in which people exercise active
grassroots agency instead of being delegated to
passive participation — can never be ushered in.

Strategic Stability & Nuclear Deterrence In South Asia

Author: Dr Moonis Ahmar. Published in the Friday Times on July 29, 2023
The asymmetrical nature of deterrence in Indo- attack me because if you do, something
Pak relations is reflected in New Delhi’s edge in unacceptably horrible will happen to you.'
conventional weapons and large-scale
modernization of India’s nuclear arsenal. Is Based on the above subject, one can argue that
nuclear deterrence in South Asia durable the concept of deterrence is as old as the
enough to be able to prevent another war in the existence of this world, with periodic
region? Or will an arms race, whether transformations which took place in its
conventional or nuclear, continue to drain the application from time to time. Weapons form
resources of both India and Pakistan? the core of deterrence, which was demonstrated
when nuclear weapons began to shape state
According to Key Concepts in International policy with the purpose of deterring the other
Relations by Martin Griffiths and Terry side and signaling refrain from aggression. For
O’Callaghan, in its simplest form, deterrence deterrence to work reliably, the three ‘Cs’ are
consists of the following threat, intended to critical: capability, credibility and
dissuade a state from aggression: ‘Do not

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Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
communication. If any of the Cs is missing,
deterrence will not work.
The history of nuclear deterrence goes back to
the post-1945 era, when the nuclear arms race
between the United States and the Soviet
Union acted as a useful way to prevent the
outbreak of another global war. Nuclear
weapons are supposedly supposed to deter the
other side and are not to be used, because they
conclusively create a ‘zero sum game,’ in which
there are no winners and losers. Talks for
nuclear arms control yielded muted results,
because the nuclear stockpile held by the five
de jure and four de facto nuclear states are
capable of destroying the world several times
over. De jure nuclear powers are the
permanent members of the UN Security
Council and the de facto nuclear states are
Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
Coming back to the nuclearization of South
Asia, with the testing of nuclear devices by
India on May 11, 1998 and Pakistan on May 28,
1998, the two countries ended a policy of
nuclear ‘opacity’ and embarked on
manufacturing nuclear weapons and missiles.
That caused enormous fear and concern in the
influential capitals of the world, that both
countries, in view of their unresolved issues,
may be tempted to use their nuclear weapons
against each other. Yet, in order to ensure the
world over responsible handling of their
nuclear arsenal, India and Pakistan established
nuclear control and command authority, and
took measures to ensure nuclear safeguards
and nuclear restraint, along with pursuing a
policy of minimum nuclear deterrence. While
the Indian nuclear program is two pronged i.e.
directed against China and Pakistan,
Islamabad’s nuclear program is India specific.
Twenty-five years after the nuclearization of
South Asia, the region is grappling with the
prospect of a nuclear arms race, with India
taking the lead in land, sea and air based
nuclear weaponry, by expanding the range of
its nuclear missiles with an ambition to deter
China and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean region.
It means nuclear weapons have come to stay in
South Asia, and continue to act as a credible
means to avoid an all-out war.
In order to project their nuclear weapon’s
program as credible and safe, India and
Pakistan came up with their respective nuclear
doctrines and also signed agreements for
ensuring safety of their nuclear arsenal. In
December 1985, after attending the first
SAARC summit in Dhaka, the President of
Pakistan General Zia-ul-Haq made a stopover
in Delhi where after meeting the Indian Prime
Minister Rajiv Gandhi, the two countries agreed
to exchange information about each other’s
nuclear installations, an arrangement which
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was given practical shape when in December
1988, on the sidelines of SAARC summit held
in Islamabad, India and Pakistan signed an
agreement in which the two countries agreed to
exchange a list of their nuclear installations
every year by December 31. Called nuclear
confidence-building measures, the idea was to
induct trust, responsibility and professionalism
by India and Pakistan about their respective
nuclear programs.
Likewise, in 1991, India and Pakistan signed
an agreement not to attack each other’s
nuclear installations. Prior to that in 1990,
India and Pakistan agreed to establish a hot
line between Director General Military
Operations (DGMOs) to manage military crises
situations. In 2005, New Delhi and Islamabad
signed an agreement for giving advance notice
of ballistic missile tests.
While nuclear confidence-building measures
formed the core of nuclear deterrence, India
and Pakistan are unable to bridge their trust
deficit and eradicate a mindset based on
paranoia and hostility, which is responsible for
putting a question mark over their professional
approach to dealing with threats of nuclear
escalation.
One needs to analyze the phenomenon of
nuclear deterrence in South Asia in three ways.
First, both sides claim that a level of maturity
and prudence is reflected in their nuclear
programs after a quarter century of their overt
nuclearization. The standoff in Indo-Pakistan
relations, and stalled comprehensive dialogue
since the Mumbai attacks of November 2008
tends to deepen the vacuum in stabilizing a
credible nuclear restraint regime. When there is
the absence of Track-1 diplomacy under
comprehensive dialog, which has a specific
component dealing with the nuclear issue, the
two sides are unable to engage in dialog on
ensuring confidence, trust and transparency in
their nuclear programs.
Literature on the nuclearization of New Delhi
and Islamabad spells out that “Pakistan is
pursuing a policy of “full spectrum deterrence
(FSD)” designed to prevent conventional conflict
at any level by the threat of nuclear first use in
response to aggression. Pakistan’s first
response may, and probably would, be
conventional. It would resort to nuclear use in
response to a ‘large-scale attack.’ The full
spectrum covers both short-range, low-yield
weapons and long-range weapons to cover the
most distant targets in India, which is
identified as the sole adversary. While the
capability to inflict unacceptable damage is
inherent in the full-spectrum approach, the
threat of the use of short-range weapons is
meant to deny India the space for limited
conventional war. India follows a policy of No
Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
First Use (NFU) against all nuclear-armed
states, but with a commitment to retaliate in
the case of any use of nuclear, or large-scale
chemical or biological, weapons against its
territory or its armed forces anywhere.”
In a useful and an informative monograph
entitled, “Nuclear Deterrence and Stability in
South Asia: Perceptions and Realities”
published by Antoine Levesques, IISS Research
Fellow for South Asia with Desmond Bowen,
IISS Associate Fellow for South Asia, in May
2021, the authors argued that the “failure of
deterrence leading to a confrontation between
India and Pakistan could result in the first
offensive use of a nuclear weapon since 1945
and potentially escalate into a broader nuclear
exchange. Neither side would truly win such a
war, the consequences of which, including the
breakdown of the nuclear taboo that has held
for more than 70 years, would extend far
beyond the region. Unless national survival
were truly at stake, it is hard to see what
security gains would warrant nuclear use.
India and Pakistan became nuclear-armed
states when they both tested weapons in
1998.”
Fingers were pointed against Pakistan from
several sides about the unreliability of its
nuclear weapons program, because of the
unstable character of the state and the growing
influence of Jihadi forces. It is a nightmare and
a doomsday scenario according to the West if
the Pakistani state is seized by Jihadi elements
and they also manage to seize control of the
country’s nuclear installations and weapons. In
order to dispel such fears and conspiracy
theories, from time to time, Islamabad has
reminded the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) about the safety of its nuclear
arsenal.
Second, nuclear deterrence in the context of
India and Pakistan has been tested numerous
times in the last several decades. In 1990,
when the two countries had not overtly gone
nuclear, crisis escalation in Indo-Pakistan
relations took place over Kashmir, which
reportedly forced Pakistan to activate its
nuclear weapons. The so-called mission of
Robert Gates, the then CIA Chief to both India
and Pakistan to manage the nuclear crisis in
1990 is often quoted as a major challenge to
the very concept of nuclear deterrence.
Apart from other crises in Indo-Pak relations
since 1990, the February 2019 crisis in Indian
occupied Kashmir triggered a crisis which
threatened a nuclear showdown in South Asia.
According to Antoine Levesques and Desmond
Bowen in their IISS monograph: “On 14
February 2019, a suicide bomb attack – for
which the Pakistan-based Jaysh-e-Mohammad
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(JeM) terrorist group claimed responsibility –
killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in
Pulwama in the Indian state of Jammu and
Kashmir. In retaliation, India carried out an
airstrike targeting what the Indian government
described as a major JeM training camp in
Balakot, a town in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
province of mainland Pakistan. Pakistan’s
counter-retaliation resulted in the loss of an
Indian aircraft and the capture of its pilot. (He
was later released.) There are reports that India
threatened to use, and possibly prepared, a
small number of conventionally armed ballistic
missiles against Pakistan. During the crisis,
both sides engaged in deterrence signaling that
alternated between provocation, and which was
evidently clouded by misperceptions that could
have led to miscalculation and unintended
escalation. This episode, in which chance
played an ameliorative role, challenged both
countries’ long-standing claims of being able to
contain a crisis well ahead of any resort to
nuclear weapons. Such claims have been, at
best, soliloquies, rather than resulting from
dialogue between the two.”
International players like United States, Russia,
China and Saudi Arabia reportedly played a
crucial role in defusing the 2019 crisis, which
had the potential to escalate in the wake of
Pulwama and the Balakot incident, leading to
the shootdown of two Indian aircraft by the
Pakistan Air Force. American President Donald
Trump, who was visiting Vietnam at that time,
had to intervene and persuade the Modi regime
to refrain from retaliating following the shooting
of Indian fighter aircraft by the PAF.
Lately, the fragility of the Pakistani state
because of a severe economic crisis and
seemingly perpetual political instability tends
to question the capability of Islamabad to
secure its nuclear arsenal from a possible
seizure by Jihadi groups. When the economy of
Pakistan has narrowly escaped default and the
country is under heavy burden of debt, will
international lenders take advantage of the
situation and pressurize Pakistan to put the
country’s nuclear installations under the
control of the IAEA? This may verge on the
conspiratorial, but when a country is facing
breakdown both economically and politically,
how can it be expected to protect its nuclear
arsenal from possible seizure?
The stability of nuclear deterrence in South
Asia will continue to have a question mark if
both India and Pakistan are unable to make
significant progress in their nuclear confidence
building measures, or if Islamabad continues
to slide downhill, exacerbating the fragility of
the Pakistani state.
Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order
Author: Giancarlo Elia Valori. Published in the Israel Defense in August, 2023
An in-depth look into how artificial intelligence affects
changes in the world order from two viewpoints:
structure and international rules.
Today we will begin to focus on analysing how
artificial intelligence affects changes in the world order
from two viewpoints, namely structure and
international rules. As to the international situation,
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to influence the
balance of power between countries in the economic
and military spheres. The capabilities of non-State
actors will also expand unprecedentedly and
international competition around technology will
become more intense.
In terms of international rules, Artificial Intelligence
has the potential to change the form and principles of
warfare and impact existing international laws and
ethics. The security and governance challenges posed
by AI technology are issues that must be addressed by
all mankind.
Countries should look at the problem from the
perspective of building a community with a shared
future for mankind and discuss the future of AI
international rules starting from the concept of
common security.
It must be said, however, that the topic and issues
pertaining to Artificial Intelligence do not stem from
the spread of the Internet and cyber-science in recent
years, but go back a long way.
In 1950 British mathematician Alan Turing (1912-54)
proposed the concept of Artificial Intelligence. In 1956
the first symposium on Artificial Intelligence was held
in Dartmouth, New Hampshire, USA, and AI was later
officially recognised as a science by the international
community of scholars.
As we entered the second decade of the 21st century,
the research and development of AI technology
stepped up its pace. Today, almost seventy years after
the first theoretical approaches, Artificial Intelligence
is widely used in an increasing number of production
and human life areas. In some specialised fields, it is
almost at the same level or even surpass the human
brain’s performance.
As a ubiquitous technology with the potential to
transform human society, Artificial Intelligence has
been widely discussed in the areas of science and
technology, industry, the military, society and ethics,
as we mentioned above.
Hence will Artificial Intelligence have an impact on
international relations? What kind of impact will it
have? It is worth exploring some of these issues. It
should be noted that AI technology itself is complex,
hard to explain and uncertain. If you are not an expert
in the field, you cannot go into its “workings”, but you
can set logical and moral grounds for discussing it.
An attempt will be made to analyse Artificial
Intelligence only on the basis of the events that have
occurred as a function of it, or of the development
trend generally recognised by the academic
community as having an impact on international
relations, with the hope of trying to explore the
necessity and possibility of building a common rule.
There are certainly many exaggerated expectations
about how science and technology will affect modern
international relations. Some people, like Alvin Toffler
in his book The Third Wave - published in the United
States in 1980 and in Italy in 1987 - predict that the
future world will be fraught with risks and nuclear
weapons and on the brink of economic and ecological
collapse. They also predict that the existing political
system will quickly become obsolete, and the world
will face a major crisis.
Such predictions often overestimate the difficulties
that technology causes to human beings, but
underestimate the human will and ability to solve
them. After the Cold War, against the backdrop of
globalisation, multilateralism gradually turned into
international consensus - at least until the collapse of
the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - as did the
effectiveness of the international non-proliferation
system; the global movement to tackle climate change;
and the increasingly strengthened cooperation
between countries to tackle a new ecological order.
The same holds true for the development of peace
movements, which have shown consensus and
responsible attitude of mankind in upholding
founding values and responding to challenges.
The problems caused by technology can be solved
through the continuous evolution of technology itself,
and human beings must also build a rigorous system
of prevention through ethics and laws. Indeed, each
technological revolution has accelerated the process of
globalisation, bringing a number of planetary issues
onto the agenda of international politics. Hence the
world at least has become more transparent and
integrated than in the past.
But before getting to the heart of the discussion,
several issues need to be clarified. The first question is
the following: what Artificial Intelligence are we talking
about?
1. Are we talking about Artificial Intelligence in the
strict sense that can simulate individual human
behaviour, such as recognition, learning, reasoning
and judgement?
2. Or are we talking about a general Artificial
Intelligence with autonomous consciousness and
independent innovation capabilities similar to the
human brain that can then set itself above man
himself?
3. Are we talking about a weak Artificial Intelligence,
which exists to solve specific tasks, and is only good
at voice and image recognition, and at translating
certain materials, such as Google's AlphaGo and
iFLYTEK's intelligent translator? That is to say, a mere
waiter?
4. Or are we still talking about a strong artificial
intelligence, capable of thinking, planning, problem-
solving, abstract thinking, understanding complex
concepts, learning quickly, learning from experience
and other human-level artificial intelligences, such as
the prototype Mecha child David, capable of
experiencing love in the movie AI (2001), or the
humanoid robot Ava in the movie Ex Machina (2015)
with the consciousness of living a normal life?
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5. Or are we talking about an artificial super-
intelligence, experiencing “singularity” with
computational and thinking capabilities that far
surpass the human brain in all areas including
scientific innovation, general knowledge and social
skills? (Such is the definition of superintelligence by
the Swedish philosopher from the Oxford University,
Nick Bostrom, known for his reflections on the so-
called existential risk of humanity and the anthropic
principle).
When we discuss the AI impact on international
relations and even on its model, we can only confine
ourselves to the well-known AI technology and its
applications based on big data, deep learning, as well
as computing power and algorithms as its three major
pillars. We cannot speak of future AI technologies that
have not developed yet (at least as far as we know)
such as the technology of simulating the brain's
activities at 100% of its total operation, while today we
know that the human brain only works at 10% in
different areas each time and never, as a whole, at the
aforementioned 100%. The second question is the
following: can Artificial Intelligence influence
international relations and hence the international
order? So far, the answer is yes.
Throughout history, technological innovation and
spreading have revolutionised the fate of one or more
countries countless times, changing regional patterns
and even the world situation. Just think of the impact
of technological revolutions recorded over time on the
military, as well as on the methods of organising
government, on beliefs, and hence on the transfer of
power between countries, with the related evolution of
power structures.
Around 1700 B.C. the discovery/invention of the
chariot in battle changed the power structure in
Mesopotamia, Egypt, India and the Yellow River region
of China. For instance, the Aryans entered Northern
India, and the rise of the Shang dynasty (1675-1046
B.C.) took place. After 1200 B.C. the emergence and
spread of iron-casting technology enabled ordinary
infantry - equipped with (relatively cheap) armours
and weapons made of such metal - to overturn
chariots, which were driven by the opposing warring
elites.
However, not only the military aspect should be
considered. The consolidation of bureaucratic
dominance - i.e. the prior acquisition and mastery of
alphabetical structures and arithmetic calculation -
made possible the rise of agricultural empires such as
Assyria and Persia. In the 7th century B.C. the
number and technology of horse archers once again
broke the military and political balance in Eurasia,
and the steppe nomadic peoples – such as the
Mongols - gained an advantage over rural peoples,
forming the largest empire of all time (1206-1368).
Just to make another more recent example, the
emergence of nuclear technology changed the modern
world’s political landscape and further strengthened
the power structure of the major powers shaped at the
end of World War II, which created and imposed upon
themselves the status of permanent members in the
Security Council of the United Nations. Those powers
set a series of international rules, such as the use of
nuclear energy for peaceful purposes; the nuclear
States’ commitment to the non-proliferation of nuclear
weapons, and the non-nuclear States’ access to
peaceful nuclear technology.
At the same time, they enacted a series of
international agreements such as the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the UN
Negotiating Mechanism for Nuclear Disarmament, the
Global Nuclear Security Summit, and the Southeast
Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone.
Hence we should not be surprised that there is no
difference between the aforementioned war chariot
and Artificial Intelligence, or the dual use of nuclear
energy (for military or peaceful purposes), all of which
changed and are changing the balance of international
power.
An in-depth analysis into how new technology has
been affecting the international balance of powers.
In July 2017 the Belfort Center for Science and
International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School
published the report Artificial Intelligence and
National Security, arguing that in the future artificial
intelligence could become a transformative medium
comparable to nuclear weapons, aircraft, computers,
and biotech security technology. It is therefore
reasonable to include Artificial Intelligence in
discussions that may influence international relations.
The international order includes two basic aspects,
one being the power structure and balance of power of
the major countries and groups of States, and the
other being the rules that should be followed in the
management of relations between these countries.
The international order is a state of affairs in which
countries in the global system should adopt non-
violent methods to resolve conflicts in accordance with
international rules. Its constituent elements are jus
gentium, shared rules and regulations, and relevant
institutions.
Changes in this system are essentially caused by
changes in the international structure, but the
structure is not a constitutive element of the
international order. Hence, if the aforementioned
fallacious system is to be changed, a new
international order must be established, which is
nothing more than the redistribution of power, i.e. the
core content of the rearrangement of international
institutions.
Artificial Intelligence can have an impact on existing
international rules and give rise to a new jus gentium
by changing the balance of power and mutual
relations of international players, thus influencing
changes.
First of all, Artificial Intelligence will economically
affect the balance of power between countries and
even trigger a new cycle of influence and co-
management by the great powers.
As early as 1989 Paul Kennedy argued - in his book
The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. Economic Change
and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 - that in the
long run there was an obvious link between the
economic rise and fall of every great world power. In
June 2017 Pricewaterhouse Coopers published Seize
the Opportunity. 2017 Summer Davos Forum Report
predicting that by 2030 the AI contribution to the
world economy would reach 15.7 trillion US dollars
and that the People's Republic of China and North
America were expected to become the largest
beneficiaries, totalling 10.7 trillion US dollars.
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In September 2018 the report Frontier Notes: Using
Models to Analyse the Impact of Artificial Intelligence
on the World Economy, published by the McKinsey
Global Institute, estimated that Artificial Intelligence
would significantly improve overall global productivity.
Excluding the impact of competition and
transformation cost factors, Artificial Intelligence
could contribute an additional 13 trillion US dollars to
global GDP growth by 2030, with an average annual
GDP growth of around 1.2 per cent.
This is comparable to or greater than the
transformative impact of many other technologies
throughout history, such as steam engine in the 19th
century, industrial production in the 20th century,
and information technology in the current century.
The report also pointed out that countries and regions
(mainly developed economies) with leading positions in
Artificial Intelligence can achieve economic growth of
20 to 25 per cent on current basis, while emerging
economies may only record half this rate.
The Artificial Intelligence gap can lead to further
deepening the digital divide. Artificial intelligence can
change the global industrial chain. The new
industrialisation represented by industrial robots and
smart manufacturing will lure the manufacturing
industry back to developed economies, and will impact
the de-industrialisation of many developing countries
sooner than expected. Hence opportunities would
remain locked in the country that provides “only” the
resource or raw material.
The development and implementation of Artificial
Intelligence require a lot of funding, high-tech content,
and can lead to changes in the employment structure,
making highly repetitive and low-tech jobs gradually
disappear.
Moreover, in another McKinsey report from 2017,
based on research into 46 countries, it was predicted
that by 2030 as many as 800 million people worldwide
would lose their jobs and be replaced by automated
robots. There will be a massive displacement of jobs
worldwide similar to that seen in the early 20th
century, when most of the world's jobs moved from
agriculture to industry. At the same time, the
widespread implementation of AI technology will also
increase the demand for professionals in this field.
According to the research, there are three types of
countries that are most likely to benefit from the
development of AI technology.
The first type consists of countries with first-rate
advantages in Artificial Intelligence - such as the
United States and China - and they are all favoured.
The second type is represented by capital- and
technology-intensive countries with a small
population or a downward trend, such as Japan,
South Korea and Singapore, which not only have the
capital and technical conditions to develop Artificial
Intelligence, but can also use the AI development to
compensate for a lack of total population or a
downward trend, as well as an ageing population
structure and other disadvantages.
The third type includes countries with more scientists,
mathematicians, engineers or States that value and
appreciate vocational training related to science,
technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM).
Over and above the economic issue, Artificial
Intelligence will militarily change the balance of power
between countries. Proponents of military AI believe it
will subvert the form and style of warfare. Armoured
or mechanized warfare uses materials to release
energy, relying on oil and steel, whereas computerised
warfare uses networks to gather energy, relying on
information, links and connections. According to
current expectations, once warfare enters the AI era, it
will be a confrontation of robots and automation,
controlled by the aforementioned AI.
It can be expected that, under AI conditions, elements
of warfare such as combatants, battle concepts and
winning mechanisms will change completely. In a
traditional war, even if there is a gap in terms of
weapons and training levels between the opposing
sides, the disadvantaged side can anyway fight with
favourable times and places, superior strategies and
advanced tactics. For example, during the wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan, improvised explosive devices (IED)
caused problems for the US and Soviet armies in the
latter country.
Under the conditions of intelligent warfare, instead,
the technological contribution of one side through AI
will quickly create an overwhelming advantage on the
battlefield, thus making it impossible for the weaker
side to define an effective observation-judgement-
decision-action cycle, always remaining in a passive
position.
In its report Artificial Intelligence Changing the World,
the Brookings Institution put forward the concept of
“hyperwar”, i.e. war is a process of race against time
and usually the side with the fastest decision-making
and execution process will prevail. The decision-
making speed of the AI-assisted command and control
system will far exceed that of the traditional mode of
warfare - combined with the automatic weapon
system that can autonomously decide to launch lethal
weapons - and will greatly accelerate the warfare
process, so that a new expression - “extreme speed
warfare” - will and must be coined to describe this
mode of warfare.
Regarding the latter, the article What Happens When
Your Bomb-Defusing Robot Becomes a Weapon,
published by Caroline Lester on the website The
Atlantic on 26 April 2018, used many analyses to
show that military robots can significantly reduce the
threat of roadside bombs, with all due respect to Iraqi
and Afghan patriots.
Artificial Intelligence will also lead to revolutionary
changes in military equipment. Unmanned lethal
automatic weapon cluster combat could become the
protagonist and the main combat method in future
wars.
Once the aerial drone, the unmanned submarine, the
ground robot, the unmanned tank, the war of attrition
and sea tactics are perfected, they will make large-
scale weapon platforms - such as aircraft carriers and
fighter aircrafts - complex and expensive, as the latter
are less advantageous from the viewpoint of warfare
cost and combat effectiveness.
It is as if an F-35 fighter jet, with a single cost of
hundreds of millions of dollars and with one man on
board fighting a group of low-priced armed drones, is
equivalent to shooting mosquitoes.
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What needs to be explained is that there is still great
uncertainty about the AI impact on armies: it is not
known to what extent and how this impact will
manifest itself. In the discussion held at the
Conference Artificial Intelligence and Security of the
7th World Peace Forum at Tsinghua University in July
2018, some experts pointed out that although the
future development trends of machine learning in
industrial robots, material science and other
technologies can be generally studied, the specific
impact of the mix of these technologies on future
warfare cannot be accurately assessed.
In the first thirty years of the 20th century, European
military powers such as Germany, Great Britain, the
Soviet Union, France and Italy developed tank, aircraft,
missile and radio communication technologies.
Nevertheless, it was only after Germany had waged
the Blitzkrieg in World War II that the world
discovered that those new technologies together could
bring such unimaginable changes to warfare. Now,
regardless of algorithmic warfare or similar tactics, the
heated debate in strategic circles is still to analyse the
AI impact on the operations of a single technology.
Without a holistic understanding of the military
applications of AI technology, the planned
countermeasures could become a costly and
unnecessary new Maginot Line.
Prof. Valori now looks at where the world is heading,
whether it will be more open or closed, more
cooperative or more confrontational
The global changes at the turn of the two millennia
and the epidemic of the century are currently
intertwined. The world economy is struggling to
recover and is facing many complex challenges.
Economic globalisation is facing headwinds. Where is
the world heading? Will it be more open or more
closed than now? Cooperation or confrontation?
This is the reason why it is necessary to continuously
emphasise the need for building an open world
economy. There must be no restraints or reversals of
the trend. We need to be on the right side of history,
expanding relentlessly by fully opening up to every
innovation we can control, such as, hopefully,
Artificial Intelligence - inter alia - about which we will
speak later in connection with a new economic world
order. We need to build a community with a shared
future for the whole of mankind.
The planet is circumscribed: there are no more terrae
nullius - in the broadest sense - to be conquered, or
peoples “to be educated” through the bogus,
mystifying and hypocritical “white man's burden” or
various divining “manifest destinies” to be imposed on
others with smart bombs or humanitarian wars.
Building an open world economy is an inevitable
choice in line with the historical trend of equal
development, or rather with the elimination of colonial,
neo-colonial and imperialist remnants. Equal
economic globalisation is the only way for the
development of human society. Economic
globalisation is historically the objective prerequisite
for the development of social productive forces, and
the inevitable result of scientific and technological
progress has given great momentum to world
economic growth.
It has favoured the flow of goods and capital, the
progress of science and technology and civilisation:
indeed, Artificial Intelligence, which until yesterday
seemed like science fiction, with yesterday's eye
projected onto today may seem uchronia, but is
objective reality.
Exchanges between peoples are in line with the
common interests of all States. In today's world, a new
step of scientific and technological revolution, as well
as industrial transformation, proves to be each time a
profound development. The system of global
governance is deeply changing and the international
model is affected, thus speeding up the process.
The interests of all countries are interwoven and
destiny is shared. Cooperation and mutually beneficial
relations - in the case of bilateral relations - are
becoming the general trend. Peace, development,
cooperation and mutual gain would be the trend of
the present times, even if not yet achieved due to the
needs and demands of the international war industry
(see the case of the Ukraine-Russia war).
After all, no one can cope with the various challenges
facing mankind alone, and no country can turn
geographically into an island closed in on itself, such
as the United Kingdom which dominated the world in
the 19th century, also thanks to its physical
configuration, later followed by its former colony,
namely the United States of America.
Openness brings progress and, conversely, isolation
will inevitably leave those that supports it behind. If a
country wants to develop and thrive, it must grasp,
follow and adapt to the general trend of world
development, otherwise it will inevitably be left behind
by History. The desired project of a new world
economic order firmly pursues a strategy for
liberalising and facilitating trade and high-level
investment policies, and promotes the creation of a
pattern of contacts and relations linking land, sea,
overseas, East and West, which are the fundamental
promoters of a common global open-minded approach.
They are the pivots of a stable source of strength and
power for global economic growth, regulated by the jus
gentium.
Building an open world economy is an unavoidable
prerequisite to advance and adhere to the common
values of all mankind. Countries have different
histories, cultures, systems and levels of development,
but the people of each State pursue the common
values of peace, development, equity, justice,
democracy and freedom for all mankind: gens una
sumus. The common value of all mankind embodies
consensus on the respect for the values of each
different human civilisation. It represents mankind's
common quest for a better future and is also an
important symbol of human progress.
The fact of building an open world economy, of
fostering economic globalisation in a more open,
inclusive, balanced and win-win way for everybody, of
pursuing cooperation instead of war and/or political
confrontation, of embracing openness instead of
narrow-mindedness, of pursuing mutual benefit and
avoid a zero-sum game means to consciously promote
adherence to the common feelings and sentiments of
all mankind.
Practice has shown that the peaceful development of
the world is inseparable from mutual openness and
tolerance. Any unilateralism and extreme self-interest
are totally unworkable. Engaging in “inner circles”
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must also be fully rejected. The same holds true for
triggering confrontation along outdated ideological
policy lines, which in the past meant oppressing the
weak so that the winner could take it all. The
particularism of self-styled economic-political and
ideologically imposing elites is an increasingly narrow
blind alley. Believing to be the repository of truth and
wanting to impose one's own model on States,
countries and nations, as well as peoples, is a moral
and above all a factual crime.
Only with a highly responsible attitude towards the
future and the destiny of mankind can we promote the
construction of an open world economy, and practise
global governance with broad consultation as a joint
contribution to shared benefits. Support exchanges
and mutual learning between different sources of
knowledge is the right way for the world to grow wider.
This means being on the right side of History and
continuing to promote the construction of new
economic and political world orders.
Mankind is currently emerging from a particular
historical period. The Covid-19 epidemic has fully
affected the planet and we have sustained global
changes not seen for more than a century, as a
reminder of the Spanish flu pandemic. The global
industrial and supply chains have been affected.
There have often been cases of unilateralism,
protectionism and interstate bullying, i.e. risks and
uncertainties in the international community. The
world, however, has not returned to a state of total
mutual closure and separation. Open cooperation is
still maintaining itself as a historical trend and the
possibilities of common benefits for all are still what
people, namely citizens, want and desire.
China and the new Middle East
Author: Dr Murad Ali. Published in the The News International in May 2023
Due to its growing role in the Middle East, China is
emerging as “an economic heavyweight…a diplomatic
lightweight and…a military featherweight” in the
region (RAND Corporation).
There is no doubt about the conclusions asserted in
one of the 2016 studies of the American think tank,
although Beijing still has minimal security or military
role in the region as compared with that of the US; its
diplomatic position has certainly magnified than how
it was in the past. The international community was
certainly taken aback by how China silently but
successfully brokered a truce between Saudi Arabia
and Iran, two illiberal regimes which are exceptionally
oil-rich countries in the volatile Middle East.
It is too early to celebrate the deal and be sanguine
about the prospects of this rapprochement for the
region and beyond, including its implications for
Pakistan which has friendly ties with both countries.
Having said that, it is expected that the mending of
fences between the two countries could bring
considerable ease for Pakistani policymakers as they
have consistently struggled to strike a balance while
choosing Riyadh over Tehran.
The recent opening of the Mand-Pishin ‘border
sustenance market’, the first of the six such initiatives
planned on the border of Balochistan, Pakistan’s
largest province by area and the Iranian province of
Sistan-Baluchestan, the country’s second largest
province out of 31 provinces in terms of size after
Kirman, and many other such economic and trade
initiatives would at least not summon the kingdom’s
wrath.
Based on these principles, not only will individual
people gain momentum for development in the future,
but the world will benefit even more. To this end, on
the one hand, it is crucial to establish an overarching
vision, and to firmly pursue a mutually beneficial
strategy of openness for all. This means going global
with a proactive attitude, and insisting on the
implementation of broader cooperation between States,
so that a wider scope and deeper awareness of
openness to the outside world can be reached. Only
by taking action in this world will we be able to
achieve a higher level of participation.
The system of an open economy will step up the
construction of a new development model with the
domestic cycle as the main structure and national and
international cycles promoting each other, so as to
create new advantages in international economic
cooperation and free competition.
On the other hand, we need to promote the
construction of a new type of international relations,
to adhere to the correct concept of justice and
interests in international trade, and to oppose all
forms of protectionism, hegemonism and Cold War
mentality. Not only does this encourage countries to
make full use of their comparative advantages and
jointly optimise the allocation of global economic
resources, but it also fosters the construction of a
global value chain for shared benefits that can
promote a global market for the benefit of all parties.
This means creating a free multilateral and non-
discriminatory trading system for the benefit of global
economic stability, post-Covid recovery and
sustainable development.
It must be emphasized that rivalry between Saudi and
Iran, where the former is the largest oil producer in
OPEC, and the latter is also a major player, is a
decades-long tussle to gain predominance in the
Middle East. This battle for regional supremacy has
been shaped by multiple factors comprising the clash
of their respective religious identities, political
ideologies, and core national interests. In this rivalry,
oil is an integral part and due to this international
powers find it hard to stay away from the region.
Keeping in view their historical mistrust, the role of
Beijing has been hailed by most countries – sans the
US/Israel and the likes – in bringing Riyadh and
Tehran to the negotiating table. Commenting about
their conflict, Saudi King Fahd once lamented in 1988:
“I don’t know where it will end…Iran has harmed
relations not only with us but also with its neighbors
and the whole world…Iran has tried many times to
undermine security in the Gulf region, the Arabian
Peninsula, and the world. What has Iran gained? Iran
has gained nothing”. At the same time, he also added:
“we cannot change the geographic reality of Iran, and
Iran cannot change our geographic reality”.
This is a fact that needs to be realized not only by
Riyadh and Tehran, but all countries enmeshed in
endless boundary and other disputes, including
Islamabad and New Delhi. Mutual coexistence should
be the norm. But alas, it is not so in most cases,
particularly when one party is replete with hubris,
fuelled by material superiority or ideological
superiority or both.
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If countries and their leaderships remain mired in
historical wrangles and do not want to talk to each
other at all, it will be a zero-sum-game for all. Those
nations can truly prosper that are able to get rid of
historical baggage and move ahead. There is no doubt
that both Saudi and Iran used to regard each other
with immense scorn and their hatred for each other
was rarely muted.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s current supreme leader
(in office since 1989), used to denounce the Saudi
royal family as “sinful idols of arrogance and
colonialism”. In a tit for tat, Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman, widely known as MBS, used to always
assert that “if you see any problems in the Middle
East, you will find Iran”. Hence, given the intensity of
hatred and animosity, the current reconciliation is by
no means a modest achievement of not only Beijing,
but also of Riyadh and Tehran to bury the hatchet
and move on.
At the same time, it must be remembered that there
have been such episodes of understanding in the past
too. For example, from 1998 through 2001, the
leadership in both countries issued statements about
collaboration that are reminiscent of today’s
friendliness. Prince Nayef bin Saud, the Saudi interior
minister, once declared that: “We consider Saudi
Arabia’s security as Iran’s security and Iran’s security
as our security”. Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia
went even further by stating that “Iran’s missile
capabilities are at the disposal of the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia”. He added that “our relations with
Saudi Arabia have reached a historical stage where we
are complementing one another”.
However, several ill-fated events later brought an end
to the Saudi-Iran détente and resulted in renewed and
fiercer rivalry. Specifically, the victory of Ahmadinejad
in the 2005 presidential election reversed the course
of their bilateral ties. Formerly a mayor of Tehran and
a veteran of the Revolutionary Guard, he renewed his
pledge to return Iran to its revolutionary course and
assert itself as “the preeminent power of the region”.
Hence, old mutual suspicions and mistrust based on
the fundamental incompatibility of the two
governments and two systems, “one powered with
revolutionary zeal and the other the status quo – one
Shia, the other Sunni” were reinvigorated once again.
Tehran’s interventions in Lebanon, the fall of Saddam
in 2003 and the subsequent Sunni-Shia civil war once
again brought the two countries on a collision path.
In another theatre, the Houthi advances in Yemen
started ringing an alarm bell in Riyadh. As Saudi
Arabia shares an eleven-hundred-mile porous border
with Yemen, the rise of the Houthis was a big gain for
Iran. One deputy of Ayatollah Khamenei declared that
the capture of Sanaa was “a victory” for Tehran,
jubilantly adding that Tehran now controlled four
Arab capitals: Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa.
Saudi really felt threatened because Riyadh realized
that an Iranian encirclement would be an undeniable
reality, something which must have given sleepless
nights to the monarchy, resulting in the ill-fated
Yemen war.
The implementation of Iran’s nuclear deal in January
2016, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) which led to the easing of US, EU and
UN sanctions, further confounded the security
dilemma of the Saudi Kingdom and its allies in the
Gulf region. Two weeks before the lifting of
international sanctions, Riyadh-Tehran hostility took
a new turn when in January 2016, a furious mob
vandalized and scorched the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
In a tit for tat, Saudi Arabia responded expeditiously,
ordered its diplomats to leave Tehran and told Iranian
diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia within 48 hours. This
particular episode was the harbinger of another dark
chapter in the increasingly deteriorating Riyadh-
Tehran bilateral ties. It was also a reminder of how
Saudi-Iran rifts have metastasised into various
theatres including Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and elsewhere
throughout the Middle East and even beyond. The
Saudi-Iran hostility has had violent repercussions.
And like several Middle Eastern countries, the
economic and geopolitical implications of the
competition are deeply felt in Pakistan as well.
China definitely deserves kudos for what it has
accomplished regarding the Middle East in a world
plagued by war after war.
At the same time, what prompted Beijing to intervene
and quell hostilities at a time when the US and its
allies are bitterly embroiled in the Ukraine theatre?
Well, China imports huge oil from hydrocarbon-rich
Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s vast oil reserves,
discovered in 1909 by the British, where the Anglo-
Persian Oil Company (APOC) reaped equally
significant dividends, made Iran a weighty oil
producer.
The Shah’s Iran emerged – as Daniel Yergin in his
Pulitzer Prize winner book ‘The New Map: Energy,
Climate, and the Clash of Nations’ has described – as
a ‘vital gas station for the British empire and the
United States, at least until the 1979 revolution’.
Similarly, three decades later, in 1938 Saudi Arabia
followed the same path, rather it surpassed Iran when
American surveyors discovered an inexhaustible
supply of oil in Saudi deserts.
Here, another major player entered the world of oil
when the Saudis announced the arrival of the Arabia
American Oil Company (Aramco); by 1949 it was
producing over half a million barrels of crude per day.
For China, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are vital
sources of its oil needs today. Called the ‘world’s
factory’, China is the world’s largest trading nation
and importing approximately 38 billion kilograms of
oil from all Middle Eastern sources in 2000 to roughly
187 billion kilograms in 2017.
The Middle East has been a source of 50 per cent of
China’s total oil imports since 2000. Keeping in view
its current growth and future demands, it is projected
that by 2040, about 80 per cent of the oil China
utilizes will come from abroad, the Middle East being
a pivotal region to cater to China’s energy demands.
Given this, China has significant economic interests
in the Middle East. However, it is not a one-way traffic.
Like several other regional markets where China is the
largest trader, Beijing is also a key exporter of
manufactured goods to Middle Eastern markets. It is
because of Beijing’s tremendous manufacturing
prowess that President Obama in his autobiography ‘A
Promised Land’ asserts that “Americans bought cars
from Germany, electronics from South Korea, and
practically everything else from China”.
To some extent, the same is the case with Middle
Eastern bazaars. The region buys all types of
manufactured goods from China – from factory
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machinery and electronic equipment to clothing and
shoes. Not to forget here are ‘Made in China’ prayer
caps, prayer mats, prayer beads and other various
commodities that visitors bring from Saudi Arabia
when they visit the kingdom for Hajj or Umrah.
Over the last decade and a half, the region has
imported more from China than from the US. Like
many other regions, trade growth between China and
the Middle East since the mid-1990s has been
consistently spectacular. Between 1993 and 2016,
China’s exports to the Middle East grew from about $3
billion to $124 billion. The region’s share of global
Chinese exports has doubled since 1993, and now
accounts for six per cent of China’s total.
While all this was prior to 2016, following the launch
of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Middle East
has been on President Xi’s radar as the BRI situates
Iran, along with Turkey, Egypt, and Israel, as transit
nodes in the grand web of infrastructure projects
intended to connect continental Eurasia from east to
west. In Saudi Arabia too, Chinese companies have
established and continue to operate several transport
facilities, including those utilized by millions of
Muslim pilgrims visiting the kingdom for the annual
Hajj.
All of this means more Chinese investment, more
Chinese workers, and greater Chinese stakes in the
region. Some estimates suggest that by the end of
2014, there were over 160,000 Chinese contractors
based in North Africa and the Middle East. This
number will certainly swell once BRI projects are fully
operational in the region.
During his 2019 visit to China, signalling that Riyadh
was eager to promote partnerships beyond the US and
Europe, Prince Muhammad bin Salman was given a
warm reception in Beijing. During the visit, he
announced a slew of agreements worth $28 billion,
including a $10 billion plan for Saudi Aramco to
partner with two Chinese companies to build a new
refining and petrochemical complex in the Chinese
coastal city of Panjin in the central Liaoning province,
situated on the northern shore of the Liaodong Bay.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Author: Tabish Gauhar. Published in the The News International in July 2023
The man on the street is least concerned with the
technical reasons behind the recent back-breaking
increases in electricity and petrol prices that have
sharply eroded their monthly disposable income.
It is also Human Nature 101 that we instinctively seek
simplistic answers and solutions that inadvertently
create false narratives and allow actual factors off the
hook without explanation. But to sustainably fix a
structural problem, one must first diagnose its root
causes before offering tailored remedies that may work
within the peculiar ecosystem in which it exists.
On a purchasing power parity basis, it is perhaps safe
to say that the current energy prices in Pakistan are
unsustainable for its residential, commercial, and
industrial customers. It is a standard economic
textbook theory that the true cost of service should be
recovered from ratepayers, other than the most
vulnerable segments that may remain subsidized via
targeted social security programs such as
BISP/Ehsaas. There is no (or very little) money in our
federal budget to provide across-the-board relief to
average middle-class folks bearing the brunt of
MBS also expressed his desire to integrate the
kingdom’s Vision 2030 with China’s own overseas
initiatives. The then Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi
reciprocated, asserting that “China and Saudi Arabia
have achieved fruitful results in practical cooperation
as the two countries seek greater complementarity
between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Vision
2030 of Saudi Arabia”.
With or without the BRI, China has emerged as a
global heavyweight when it comes to financing and
executing mega infrastructure projects, particularly in
the construction sector. For instance, research shows
that “in 2017, seven of the ten largest construction
firms, by revenue, were Chinese”. Similarly, as per
another study, China has surpassed other nations as
it has gained unrivalled capacity to implement mega
construction projects at home and abroad. It is
because of this unmatched potential that among the
20 largest construction contractors, 14 are Chinese,
while six are from the EU and there are none from the
US.
Given the dominant role that China now plays in
global transportation infrastructure, Riyadh’s
prospects for achieving the much-vaunted Vision
2030 dream of becoming a logistics hub in the region
will also depend, to a considerable extent, on how the
Kingdom allures Chinese actors. While China is
already active in this sector in the region, as of 2016,
more than 160 Chinese companies were operating in
the Kingdom. In 2018, Chinese firms won 13 per cent
of contracts across the Middle East region, including
work on five major energy projects in Saudi Arabia.
In sum, Beijing is in many ways an ideal partner for
the Saudis as well as the Iranians, who like many in
Pakistan have been full of praises for the ‘China
model’ as a means to achieve economic reforms even
at the cost of political liberalization. However, while
the US has certainly receded, focusing more on the
Indo-Pacific theatre and the Ukraine war, it still has
substantial security (and economic) interests in the
region and will never like the idea of playing second
fiddle to the Chinese in the region dominated
primarily by the US since WWII.
inflation, and the small and large industries that drive
economic growth and create jobs.
By comparison, the much-richer Europeans were
shielded from last year’s energy price shock (due to
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) with almost $650bn of
subsidies, while much-poorer Pakistanis could not be
because we had to restore the IMF bailout package
and did not have the same financial wherewithal. In
any case, subsidies are neither the right answer nor a
sustainable structural solution to Pakistan’s energy
problem.
Contrary to popular belief, electricity theft and bill
defaults are not the primary causes of power tariff
increase. In fact, the regulated tariff determinations
now assume an almost barebone ‘line losses’
allowance and a 100 per cent bill recovery ratio. Of
course, the actual aggregate technical & commercial
losses are higher in at least half of our distribution
companies, but those incremental losses are not
necessarily or formulaically passed through to the end
consumers.
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Nonetheless, the last-mile distribution sector will
continue to financially bleed and provide
unsatisfactory service without a customer-centric
mindset that is impossible for state-owned natural
monopolies to evolve. Their managements and boards
must be handed over to the private sector in an open
and transparent process, alongside an equitable
sharing of liability between the federation and
provinces per the spirit of 18th Amendment and
recent NFC Awards.
Privatization, in any shape or form, without
competition, would however be a big policy mistake
and a recipe for disaster. Since DISCOs have already
lost exclusivity in their franchise zones, the wheeling
(tolling) regime needs to be operationalized so that the
bulk power customers can freely choose their electron
supplier. In a controlled manner, the market should
be further liberalized to allow all consumers (including
residential) the option to also choose their service
providers. To achieve this milestone, implementation
of the wholesale commodity market (CTBCM) needs to
progress at God’s speed.
In a deregulated, multi-seller and multi-buyer model,
the biggest beneficiary will be the consumer who only
cares about affordable tariff and uninterrupted supply
of service that the prevailing system is unable to
provide. The biggest losers will be those DISCOs
whose prime customers will switch to cheaper and
more reliable suppliers of electrons on the same wires.
Unless they too are free to source their own supplies
(that is: not forced to buy expensive power from the
national pool) and set their own non-regulated tariffs
to effectively compete on a level playing field.
It is, however, the state’s responsibility to provide
energy, as an essential service, to all people regardless
of their profile and creditworthiness. Therefore, a
‘social cost’ will necessarily be imposed on the DISCOs
(even if they are privatized) that ultimately must be
funded by the federal and/or provincial exchequer to
provide societal justice without compromising the
business case.
In an ideal scenario, the most efficiently run
distribution companies should be allowed to charge a
relatively low power tariff to their consumers without
cross subsidizing their fellow countrymen in the loss-
making DISCOs as is currently the case. This, of
course, is easier said than done as it will open a can
of worms in other spheres (such as gas, water, and
agriculture) and require a lot of political will to do
away with the ‘uniform’ nationwide electricity tariff
policy in vogue. But a differentiated, performance-
based tariff regime would incentivize healthy
competition among various distribution franchises in
the long run.
In any case, Islamabad needs to realize that it cannot
and should not continue to run these last-mile
operations and cede their management control to the
private sector and local governments. The fear of
letting go, equally pronounced among the politicians
and bureaucracy, may be justified because it is
venturing into unknown territory, but it is mostly
parochial in nature. The ability to provide jobs to
constituents, influence transfers and postings, and
steer development funds for political purposes, is one
of the main attractions of maintaining the status quo
across the board.
The top leadership and decision-makers must realize
that it is the common consumer that ultimately
suffers in the do-nothing scenario, and that we can
apply the lessons learnt from Pakistan’s relatively
successful experience of liberalizing the
telecommunication and banking industry.
What to do with legacy power purchase agreements?
The chief culprit behind the increase in electricity
rates is the host of legacy power purchase agreements
that successive governments signed with foreign and
domestic investors to set up independent power
projects in Pakistan.
All these IPP deals are on ‘take or pay’ basis, providing
almost guaranteed and very healthy returns under
sovereign cover, with dollar indexation, and several
other financial and contractual incentives.
It is easy, with 20/20 hindsight, to question the
wisdom of policymakers to bind the country into long-
term commitments on such unsustainable terms and
conditions. It is, however, also true that no electricity
is worse than expensive electricity, and that we should
be thankful for at least having the generation
infrastructure in place even if it is more than our
actual needs today.
Notwithstanding the strong correlation between
economic growth and electricity consumption,
Pakistan’s economy can simply ill afford to pay Rs40-
50 for each unit of electricity produced by the
imported coal and LNG-based power plants. A primary
driver of the Rs2,500bn circular debt choking the
power sector is the fixed capacity charges that have
now reached almost Rs2,000bn per year. With more
than 20,000 MWs of additional ‘committed’ projects in
the pipeline at various stages of construction and
development, this continually rising must-pay cost
cannot simply be ‘passed through’ to consumers in
the name of economic orthodoxy.
In fact, increasing rates depress overall electricity
demand resulting in a higher per unit tariff for all.
Customers are also forced to conserve (not necessarily
a bad thing on its own), and incentivized to steal,
default or switch to captive sources of supply, while
the system’s fixed charges keep rising. Peel the onion
and you will find this happening at all levels, making
the entire sector unviable.
As a general principle, reopening signed and sealed
contracts -- voluntarily or otherwise -- is a double-
edged sword that damages long-term investor
confidence or exposes the country to international
arbitration. The sanctity of contracts should be
maintained even though our economy continues to
pay a heavy price to arguably make those deals
‘bankable’ at the outset. Nonetheless, we need to
reprofile the front-loaded debt of the newer IPPs to
provide some breathing space to the ratepayers in the
next 3-5 years.
Debt restructuring is a controversial topic in Pakistan,
although it is common all over the world for
financially distressed borrowers and their lenders to
find new common ground when needed. Yes, we will
end up paying a bit more in absolute terms by
stretching the loan tenor but need to provide some
tariff relief to consumers in the short-to-medium term
but only if this is done as part of a holistic reform plan
for the sector.
The massive devaluation of the rupee against the US
dollar, alongside the major recent jump in
international fuel prices, has also significantly
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Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
contributed to the overall increase in consumer tariffs
in Pakistan. The exchange rate is related to a
country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and not much
can be done by the power-sector practitioners to avoid
its adverse impact. However, the freezing of the
USD/PKR rate under the older IPP contracts must
have arrested some of the recent tariff increases but
probably not enough to move the needle appreciably.
On the fuel side, we should do whatever it takes to
convert all existing imported coal power plants to
cheaper indigenous Thar lignite as expeditiously,
technically, and logistically as possible via the railway
network. Several feasibility studies and analysis have
already been done on this public private partnership
model to reduce consumer tariff and save foreign
exchange.
A technical reason behind monthly tariff increases is
the so-called violation of merit order dispatch policy
which basically means that the least cost generation
principle is not always followed. There are often
constraints such as transmission bottlenecks not yet
fixed, or contractual imperatives (must-run coal
plants, for instance), but mostly it is due to
suboptimal fuel mix and availability caused by late
ordering and/or lack of funds. Although governments
and power companies are loath to admit it publicly,
circular debt chokes liquidity and flow of capital in the
system resulting in unavailability of (imported) fuel
especially during the summer season.
And this is also why consumers still experience
unplanned loadshedding from time to time, even when
Pakistan’s current installed generation capacity
exceeds peak demand. Simply put, if we don’t have
enough money to buy petrol, it does not matter how
many cars are idly parked in our garage that we are
nonetheless paying for in fixed costs.
The cost of renewable energy has come down
appreciably over the past decade, thanks to
technological improvements and the Chinese
‘economies of scale’ manufacturing miracle. In most
instances, their total cost of generation is now less
than even the ‘marginal’ fuel cost of imported coal,
LNG and oil-fired power plants operating in Pakistan.
It, therefore, makes economic sense to replace these
hydrocarbon-based assets with newer wind and solar
power to reduce overall consumer tariff.
However, without addressing the legacy fixed costs of
older generation plants, such ribbon-cutting optics
are not the structural solutions and hard choices the
sector requires. We need to consider these ‘stranded’
costs part of the national debt and a budgetary line
item spread over the entire economy. While not a
solution per se, this accounting treatment would
relieve power-sector consumers from bearing the
entire financial load of prior policy actions and
inactions.
From gas addiction to green innovation.
To help transition to clean energy, developed countries
(including the USA, EU, and UK) have pledged funding
for developing nations in the form of grants, low
interest loans and private investments. South Africa
($8.5bn), Indonesia ($20bn), and Vietnam ($15bn) are
the first three beneficiary countries under a Just
Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) program, while
India and Mexico are next in line.
One potential use of a similar JETP initiative for
Pakistan could be the early buyout of idle oil based
IPPs and redeploying the capital to build cheaper wind
and solar hybrid plants, and desalination plants along
the coastal belt. With the right policy framework and
minimal red tape, we could use this money to also
finance private projects across a wide spectrum
including mining of battery raw materials, nature-
based carbon offsets, electric buses, electric rickshaws,
and smart grids.
Demand-side management is an uninteresting, yet
crucial, area that does not receive enough attention
from policy makers. A MW saved is a MW generated.
Our building codes and energy efficiency standards for
consumer appliances sold on the market are not best
in class and must be urgently revised to promote
conservation and productivity. We employ slab rates
and peak/non-peak tariffs as financial incentives but
very little has been done to educate the consumer on
how to reduce their electricity bills beyond just
replacing incandescent bulbs with LEDs.
In the developed markets, various consumer
distributed energy resources, such as rooftop solar PV
and home batteries, are now being connected to the
distribution grid in a bi-directional and AI-driven
digitized relationship between multiple sellers and
buyers of electricity. This not only reduces peak load
but also the quantum of investment required to
upgrade the transmission infrastructure as the energy
sector “electrifies” further. The power sector is being
decentralized the world over and should also be
decentralized in Pakistan.
Long addicted to cheaply priced natural gas,
Pakistan’s existing indigenous reserves are projected
to fully deplete within the next decade or so. Gas is
used in our country to cook food, heat homes,
generate electricity, manufacture fertilizer, produce
heat for process industries, and fuel CNG vehicles. Its
allocation among provinces, and various categories of
users, has always been a political and constitutional
hot potato.
We have also not had a major new discovery for some
time despite a series of policies rolled out to
incentivize exploration and production of onshore,
offshore, conventional, and tight, natural gas. Barring
a stroke of luck, we are likely to enhance our
dependance on imported liquified (and cross-border
piped) natural gas in the coming years, unless we
reduce its demand in the economy.
We would be able to better manage the gas demand
and supply equation if domestic space heating and
cooking gets electrified to a large extent in urban
areas, or green hydrogen (produced by electrolyzing
water using renewable energy) replaces it in urea and
steel production. Likewise, it would help reduce gas
demand if new wind and solar power plants alongside
grid-connected batteries increasingly replace gas
turbines, and the LPG footprint is expanded for
commercial and residential heating and cooking.
Suffice it to say that each of these workstreams
requires a coherent set of enabling policies and
regulations to allow the private sector to make the
economics work and play its due role. For instance,
without effectively curbing the smuggling of LPG (also
diesel) across the Iranian border on which an entire
informal ecosystem depends, no related policy would
ever work.
Like power, the gas market also needs to be
deregulated and liberalized by removing all
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Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
impediments to the direct exchange of molecules
between sellers and commercial & industrial buyers.
The government should just be a ‘matchmaker’
between foreign suppliers (whether from Azerbaijan or
Russia) and our domestic fertilizer and export-
oriented textile companies seeking state subsidies in
the name of regionally competitive energy tariffs. It is
true that from a pure economic standpoint, our value-
add industries should have preferential access to
indigenous natural gas vis-a-vis domestic heating and
cooking.
However, our socio-political ground realities are such
that households will always have priority over local
gas production. It also makes little sense for the state
to import expensive LNG and sell it to residential
customers at highly subsidized rates. While this has
been a major driver of the gas sector’s own circular
debt problem hiding below the radar, PSO’s LNG-
related receivables of Rs450bn highlights that serious
disconnect.
The government must also let the private sector decide
whether to set up more LNG import terminals (at their
own cost and customer risk) by removing all obstacles
to their accessing the common pipeline infrastructure
or using cryogenic road tankers. Like the power
DISCOs, our two state-controlled Sui gas distribution
companies will likely lose some of their best
commercial and industrial customers to cheaper and
more reliable private suppliers -- unless they too are
allowed to source (and sell) their own gas from
wherever (and to whomsoever at whatever price) on a
level playing field.
But no matter how we slice and dice it, the state will
have to recognize the previous take-or-pay contracts
signed with LNG suppliers and terminals as its
sovereign liability that may, or may not, be fully
recovered from consumers. Yet again, there are no free
lunches or quick fixes on the table here but spurring
overall economic activity with more affordable private
energy should hopefully compensate for such
‘stranded’ costs in the long run.
Energy solution: less, not more, govt
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and massive
currency devaluation, are the top two ingredients of
the petrol (and diesel) ‘bombs’ thrown on motorists in
Pakistan recently.
Since most of our crude oil and refined petroleum
products are imported, we remain at the mercy of
international oil commodity markets that no longer
swing by OPEC’s actions alone. The government’s only
significant lever is the quantum of taxes and levies
that it prescribes in the retail consumer prices to meet
its budgetary needs.
It also fixes the oil marketing and distribution margins,
and the prime minister personally approves uniform
country-wide petroleum prices every two weeks.
Despite (or because of) this tight regulatory embrace
and market intervention, everyone including the local
refineries, oil marketing companies, retail dealers, as
well as consumers, is unhappy and struggling to
make ends meet. Although deregulation and price
liberalization will not immediately reduce retail prices
of petrol and diesel in Pakistan, the sector needs these
reforms to incentivize long-term investment and
planning.
For example, Pakistan’s five domestic refineries must
be upgraded and modernized to save foreign exchange
(via import substitution) but without public funding
support. This can only happen if their investment
cases allow them to set their own ex-refinery prices,
implicitly benchmarked against market competition
from importers, traders, and state controlled PSO with
almost 60 per cent market share (alongside Parco).
For a transparent price discovery mechanism in real
time, mobile app technologies and a petroleum
commodity exchange (like the electricity trading
platform under implementation phase) should be
employed. Regulatory enforcement agencies would
also need to keep a close eye on any price
manipulation, collusion, and cartelization attempts. A
huge fear of the unknown, exacerbated by a couple of
country-wide fuel shortages and dry outs in the recent
past, prevents policymakers from taking this leap of
faith in the market. The sooner they get over it, the
better for everyone including the consumers.
Since taxes and levies are regressive in nature, and
across-the-board fuel subsidies unsustainable, the
government should launch a targeted, fiscally tenable,
and foolproof relief program for motorcyclists and
rickshaws. Another way to lower the price of petrol
and diesel in Pakistan is to reduce their long-term
demand by increasing the penetration of electric cars,
buses, rickshaws, and motorcycles. The e-mobility
transportation sector is growing rapidly elsewhere due
to falling battery costs, improving technology,
regulations, subsidies, expanding charging
infrastructure footprint, and more EV manufacturers
entering the space.
However, this will have to go hand in hand with
power-sector reforms in Pakistan to reduce the
charging cost, improve quality of supply, and
strengthen the grid infrastructure. The domestic
automobile industry would also need to step up to
locally assemble and manufacture affordable EV
vehicles to support electrification of the transportation
space, if an enabling set of policies and incentives are
in place.
In summary, there could well be more than one way to
skin the energy cat, but daily firefighting and band-
aid treatments will not address the sector’s systemic
issues. Make no mistake about it, structural reforms
and turnarounds are long and painful journeys, are
not a win-win for all, and require a paradigm shift in
thinking and approach. If we truly believe the
customer is king, all other considerations and current
practices that do not serve their needs ought to be set
aside. The bottom line is that we need less (not more)
government in the show by restricting its role to
policymaking and regulatory oversight only.
As a fundamental principle, the state must now stop
offering its sovereign balance sheet to energy suppliers
and instead direct them to sign corporate agreements
with commercial and industrial customers at non-
regulated tariffs. A light-touch government footprint
(other than for truly strategic G2G transactions or the
financing of nuclear, dam-based hydro, and cross
border energy projects) is needed for a more
sustainable and cost competitive sector.
Reforms are frustrated by deeply entrenched vested
interest groups who want to continue extracting rent
from the same broken system. It is a collective failure,
and lack of will and imagination, that we are still
following the 1990s investment model.
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Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
A unified federal ministry of energy, alongside
independent regulatory agencies, is a simpler and
more effective organizational structure for the
executive. Yes, we need to enhance the institutional
and personnel capacity of Nepra and Ogra but that is
part of the evolutionary process. No one is arguing to
give carte blanche freedom to the private sector to loot
and plunder the public under some misguided laissez-
faire capitalist ideology. Far from it, we have more
than enough checks and balances in our ecosystem
(executive, bureaucracy, regulators, parliament,
The Trinity of Taxation in Pakistan
Author: Ausaf Ashraf & Saud Bin Ahsen. Published in the The Daily Times in August 2023
The purpose of the Government is to uphold and
protect the natural rights of its citizens. So long as the
Government fulfils this purpose, the laws given by it
are valid and binding but, when it ceases to fulfil them,
then the laws would have no validity and the
Government can be thrown out of power. In Locke’s
view, unlimited sovereignty is contrary to natural law.
The government derives its authority to collect taxes
from the constitution which is the ‘grundnorm’.
According to Hans Kelsun, the grundnorm is a part of
a normative theory of law and the constitution is the
highest form of normative structure.
In taxation, this normative structure provides the
social contract between the people and the
government. People reside their trust in the
government by electing the public representative and
giving them authority to levy taxes and the
government is bound to spend the revenue so
collected on the social and economic well-being of the
people.
As Pakistan is facing the challenge of low tax
collection, a detailed gap analysis was completed by
the World Bank, which indicates that Pakistan’s tax
revenue potential would reach 26 per cent of GDP if
tax compliance were raised to 75 per cent, which is a
realistic level of compliance for lower-middle-income
countries (LMICs). This means that the country’s tax
authorities are currently capturing only half of this
revenue potential.
However, recent studies have indicated that tax
collection could be enhanced by improving tax culture
and removing the trust deficit between taxpayers and
tax collectors through positive changes in their
mindsets. Therefore, the challenge for Pakistan is to
transform its tax culture which is shaped by
interaction among the trinity of taxation i.e. the tax
policy givers, tax collectors, and taxpayers.
The literature on taxation in Pakistan brings forth two
sets of terms seeking to explain our lackluster tax
performance i.e. terms related to tax policy and tax
governance e.g. distortionary exemptions, concessions,
weak enforcement, low compliance by taxpayers,
reliance on indirect taxes and issues in improving tax
administration. The second set of terms emanating
from literature on public finance treats tax governance
as a science and identifies its various characteristics
such as buoyancy of the tax system, tax elasticity and
tax yield as explanatory variables.
Now, we will explore the origins of these terms and
the phenomenon associated with them in the
mindset of the tax collector, tax policy giver and
taxpayer and then develop a collective picture to show
how the respective mindsets about these three sets of
actors, through their mutual interaction, constitute a
tax culture which is unhealthy. This op-ed series also
judiciary, media, civil society, among others) to protect
the public interest.
Relinquishing control will not be easy for the
government, but it is a way forward in the right
direction. Finally, it will be tough to turn Pakistan’s
energy sector into an island of excellence if it remains
surrounded by a sea of chaos. Macroeconomic and
political stability are, therefore, indispensable allies
and prerequisites of a successful turnaround in the
coming years.
uses concepts such as the Stanford Sociologist W.
Richard Scott’s trichotomy of Regulative, Normative
and Cultural Cognitive pillars and explains how the
normative and cultural-cognitive approaches may be
used for nudging citizens to be more responsive
taxpayers.
Starting with Culture is that complex whole that
includes knowledge, belief, art, law, morals, custom,
and any other capabilities and habits acquired by
man as a member of society. More aptly, culture in
each society and organization is mobile, and is derived
from a complex relationship between everyone in
society and organization; it includes what those
individuals “think” (i.e., ideas, knowledge etc.) and
“do” (i.e. their behaviours and habits) as a member of
a society or organization.
The term “culture of taxation” is not used frequently
in social science literature. A country-specific tax
culture is the entirety of all relevant formal and
informal institutions connected with the national tax
system and its practical execution, which are
historically embedded within the country’s culture.
The tax culture is the relationship between taxpayers
and tax collectors in a tax system. The values and
attitudes of people in a society or an organization,
both positive and negative, toward the tax system are
part of the culture of taxation.
From the tax collector’s side, the cultural issue is
about the use of discretion. How do tax collectors use
their authority to deal with a taxpayer? If tax
collectors feel that they have more power than
taxpayers, the posture of tax collectors is likely to
dominate the taxpayer. The behaviour of the actors in
a tax system is important.
The behaviour of taxpayers is about their decisions
regarding tax compliance, tax avoidance, and tax
evasion. The decision to comply with the tax law
depends on the cost-benefit ratio in terms of the value
of the tax evaded amount and the tax with penalties if
caught. The tax and penalties are payable only if there
is a high probability of being caught. The higher the
probability of detection the more is compliance as the
tax and penalty amount is higher than the original tax.
Tax Morale is also an essential part of tax culture. Tax
morale is the intrinsic motivation of individuals to pay
taxes which is determined by several factors. Trust in
government institutions plays a significant role in tax
morale and emanates from a perception of fairness.
Once people perceive the tax system and tax
authorities as fair, they will have more trust in those
authorities and vice versa. Thus, the degree of tax
compliance might rely on how people consider
themselves and interpret their situation relative to
others and they might not pay taxes if they perceive
unfairness. Tax Policy Maker: Tax law and policy
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Special readings for CSS 2023 (Special)/ 2024 exam by CSS Exam Desk Team
affect taxpayers’ behaviour, especially when the tax
system is complex. The complexity of the tax system is
the sum of compliance costs and administrative costs.
Several studies find that high compliance costs are
responsible for large informal sectors in developing
countries. A good tax system needs to be least
distortionary, have ease of collection, not discriminate,
and be politically acceptable but Pakistan’s tax policy
is not based on these well-known and clear principles.
Ad-hoc tax revenue-enhancing measures through
SROs and mini-budgets have developed a complex tax
system that confounds principles of rational tax policy.
Exploring the tax collector mind set in Pakistan:
The tax collector in Pakistan generally thinks that the
taxpayers in general are tax evaders and do not want
to discharge their tax obligations voluntarily. In order
to make them pay their due taxes under the law they
need to be regulated and tax laws need to be enforced
strictly. This perception has evolved over time. With a
strong colonial legacy of bureaucratic behaviour, there
is a disconnect between the tax collector and the
taxpayer in terms of trust and cooperation to work for
the common good of society. There are many reasons
that can be traced to understand the level of distrust
and clash of divergent mindsets like the Colonial
legacy.
The British rulers created an administrative system
with the motive of strengthening their rule. After
independence, the colonial system of laws and
administration was adopted with little changes. The
bureaucracy joining the service in the newly
established country continued with its colonial
mindset. Largely the mindset of being the servants to
the public could not be inculcated. The tax-collecting
machinery was also not an exception. The behaviour
with the public continued to be of the master instead
of being a public servant. No concept of facilitation in
a true sense could ever be embedded in the overall
approach of the tax bureaucracy as well. The tax
collector in traditional society places less emphasis on
guiding and facilitating the taxpayer and instead
prefers to impose enforcement measures and create a
nuisance. They do not communicate with each other
in a friendly manner. The tax collector does not want
to go to the grassroots level and interacts with his
client who is contributing to the national exchequer.
This mindset is counter-productive to the healthy tax
culture as the policy formulation and implementation
are done without contextualizing the local and
cultural dynamics.
Other reasons include a lack of professional capacity
and proper training, Unrealistic collection targets,
Multiple fora and excessive litigation, Weak internal
accountability, and Misuse of Tax Money.
 Lack of professional capacity and proper training:
Ever since the reform efforts have been launched
by successive governments the focus on improving
and enhancing the professional capacity of the tax
collectors was missing. There has never been a
well-thought-out and concrete human resource
development strategy building the professional
capacity of the text collectors in a systematic
manner. Isolated training programs with subjective
selections have been launched but there has never
been a comprehensive well-planned training and
capacity-building strategy keeping in view the ever-
changing requirements of a modern revenue
agency.
 Unrealistic collection targets: Besides other
obstacles in the way to developing a taxpayer-
friendly mindset setting the tax machinery at the
operational level usually complains about
unrealistic and unevenly distributed text collection
targets. The collection targets are assigned not
giving due consideration to the ground realities and
the potential of the area or a group of taxpayers.
The follow-up of the text collection targets by the
senior management is made minutely and on a
day-to-day basis which forces the field officers to
adopt every means to achieve the tax collection
targets ignoring the genuine grievances and
problems of the taxpayers.
 Multiple fora and excessive litigation: The taxpayer
has the choice to avail of any available forums
which include regular appeal, revision, ADRC,
Federal Tax Ombudsman, and writ petition before
the Honourable High Court. Excessive litigation
and delays in decisions by the courts in tax cases
are also among the factors that shape the mindset
of a tax collector. Hard-working and honest text
collectors are discouraged. They lose their
motivation to positively and systematically conduct
the tax audits of the defaulters. The higher courts
are liberal in granting stays even without taking
into account the departmental viewpoint. Judicial
activism has contributed to developing distortion in
the smooth and speedy realization of due taxes.
 Weak internal accountability: Internal
accountability and check and balance an integral
components of an organization guaranteeing its
transparency and efficiency. A strong internal audit
system also brings a balance to the working of the
officers. It ensures the quality in the delivery of
service and sustainability of the organization in the
medium to long run. An efficient internal audit
system safeguards the taxpayers from excesses
and non-professional treatment. Unfortunately, the
internal audit and accountability system of the
Federal Board of revenue is not so efficient, robust,
and unbiased. The least favourite officers are
posted in internal audits. Therefore, the week
internal audit system has been instrumental in
developing a mindset of the tax collectors to act
according to their whims instead of following the
laws and rules in letter and spirit. In addition to
this, the ill-planned and non-integrated IT system
of FBR has paved the way for tax collectors to avoid
due control and accountability.
 Misuse of Tax Money: The taxpayers have a feeling
of mistrust and obscurity against the government
as to the fact that the funds generated out of their
taxes are not properly used rather, they are
mishandled. In this background, many taxpayers
don’t feel the moral obligation to fulfil their part of
the social contract between the state and its
citizens as long as the state doesn’t fulfil its duties
toward the general public.
Focusing on the taxpayer’s mindset in Pakistan.
Following human nature and economic rationale, no
one wants to part with his hard-earned money even in
the shape of tax being a contribution to enjoy a
civilized society. Smart taxpayers avoid taxes by
staying within the legal framework whereas
scrupulous ones would opt for tax evasion which is
liable to legal action.
The taxpayer’s mindset develops in response to
government legislation and tax policies. In our culture,
the taxpayer believes that Pakistan inherited tax laws
from the colonial era the focus of which was to extract
the maximum without any consideration for economic
growth and social welfare. Even today our economy is
dependent on foreign loans for running day-to-day
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state business and these loans have attached
conditionalities that are not business-friendly. The
policy interventions by the government under the
direction of donors like the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) are considered an erosion of state
authority.
Moreover, it is believed that the governments are not
representatives who legislate under the dictation of
the foreign lending agencies and the pressure groups
within the country an example of such legislation is
the Income Tax Ordinance 2001, which was drafted by
an Australian and went through 322 amendments
before the date of its enforcement as it conflicted with
earlier legislation and the administrative framework of
the Income Tax department. Other reasons are also
taken into consideration below.
 Penalty/ Prosecution against tax defaulters: In our
culture seeing is believing. The compliance by the
taxpayers improves if there is a probability of being
caught and a certainty of penalty. When tax
defaulters are let off scot-free due to the legal and
administrative weaknesses then other persons also
feel encouraged to follow suit which promotes the
culture of tax evasion. The compliant taxpayers
lose trust in the system feel demoralized and
consequently avoid paying their due taxes.
 Non-user-friendly Information technology:
Automation and IT intervention have been
introduced to facilitate the taxpayers and are
appreciated by the taxpayer however the IT
interventions are not user-friendly and operate in
silos. The semi-literate population is not inclined to
use this software with ease and comfort. Delayed
Refunds: The taxpayers have a persistent issue of
delayed refunds due to the confiscatory
withholding regime. The compliant taxpayer has no
option to avoid this tax. The legislature has
provided a mechanism for a refund of excessive
deductions but the department under pressure to
meet budgetary targets delays the refund without
any legal basis. This is another discouraging factor
that hinders the taxpayer from fulfilling his tax
obligations and becoming a compliant taxpayer.
 Tax Litigation: The individual taxpayers and the
corporate entities earning huge profits usually
adopt the litigation and stay by the courts as a tool
to delay or avoid their due tax liabilities. The tax
evaders compare the cost of litigation over the
period vis a vis their due tax liability and prefer to
go for the legal shield instead of depositing their
taxes. This practice by many taxpayers encourages
the culture of preferring litigation instead of
discharging the text liability as a responsible
citizen. The lawyer community is the impetus of
this culture. In the backdrop of the above analysis,
it can safely be concluded that there is a distrust
among the three stakeholders of the tax culture i.e.,
tax policymaker, tax collector, and taxpayer. They
are operating in their spheres with their specific
mindsets which has led to a lack of mutual trust
among the three stakeholders resulting in low tax
Reviewing Pakistan’s climate action
Author: Shafqat Kakakhel. Published in the The Daily Times on May 11, 2023
It is gratifying to see that the National Security
Dialogue, which has emerged as an important
national security forum, will address the existential
threat of climate change at its third session. Led by
Federal Climate Change Minister Sherry Rehman, a
panel of eminent Pakistani and foreign experts will
discuss various aspects of the global climate crisis
and its ramifications for Pakistan. This article
collection from that of the optimum level. The
problem needs to be tackled in a well-defined
conceptual framework. Following W. Richard Scot’s
institutional theory of Regulative, Normative and
Cultural-Cognitive approaches policy actions can
be proposed and categorized within the three
conceptual streams.
 Policy actions: The exemptions and concessions
should be rationalized and restricted to the extent
of general public welfare and the promotion of
economic activity. To improve the trust of the
masses in general and the taxpayers in particular
the exemptions allowed to accommodate the elites
of the society should be withdrawn. The distortions
in the tax laws like presumptive tax regime and
block taxation should be removed without yielding
to any pressure group or lobby to avoid the
complication of tax laws, increase revenue and
provide a level playing field for all taxpayers.
Alternate Dispute Resolution Committees should
be decentralized at the regional level to make it an
effective forum to resolve the issues of the
taxpayers involving factual controversies to create
confidence in the taxpayer in the tax system and
promote a healthy culture. A full-fledged
prosecution department manned with experienced
lawyers is proposed on the pattern of the Advocate
General’s office to defend the tax appeals efficiently
and expeditiously. It is also proposed that the
number of forums should be reduced to three i.e.
Commissioner Appeals, Federal Tax Courts and the
Apex Court. The departmental officers should not
be posted in any appellate forum. The first forum
may take up appeals about factual issues and
small cases. The tax court should have jurisdiction
to accept appeals with legal issues and cases of
medium to large taxpayers. There should be a time
limit for all forums to decide the cases keeping in
view the principle of time value of money.
There is no second opinion on the importance of IT for
an effective, transparent and robust tax system.
Integrated on real real-time basis, user-friendly and
reliable IT systems are the most important factors in
promoting the trust of the taxpayer in the system
saving him from hassle and exploitation and creating
ease of doing business for compliant taxpayers.
 Administrative measures: Market-based
compensation package linked with a well-defined
qualitative and quantitative performance
monitoring system and strong internal
accountability would be greatly helpful in
modifying the mindset of the tax collector freeing
him from the compulsions of sustenance and
helping to change his attitude towards the taxpayer.
South Asian culture believes in heroic traditions.
The person known for his good deeds is respected
and treated as distinguished. Using the tradition of
the region public acknowledgement and
appreciation of highest paying taxpayers would
also promote the tax culture.
attempts to present a broad- brushed tour d’ horizon
of Pakistan’s climate change agenda.
The robustness of a country’s climate action is
predicated on five essential prerequisites, noted below:
One, a political commitment by the national
leadership to support the efforts of the international
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community to address the looming climate emergency
and reinforce the resilience of the key economic
sectors, the citizens, and ecosystems to adapt to the
adverse impacts of an increasingly volatile climate
through policies implemented in collaboration with all
stakeholders.
Two, active participation in regional and global
discourses for forging consensus on the climate
change challenges and responses.
Three, development and implementation of policies
and plans of action for contributing to the realization
of the global agenda as well as adaptation to the
impacts of climate change on the national economy,
human security, and ecology.
Four, climate change governance comprising
institutions operating at national and sub- national
levels for assessment, policy formulation, and action,
as well as periodic review and monitoring of progress
achieved or missed, resource mobilization; and
Five, resources (technical, technological, financial and
human) mobilized from domestic and external sources
and optimally deployed.
Let’s see how Pakistan fares with regard to the
aforementioned criteria.
 High-level political commitment: The National
Security Policy of Pakistan (NSP) (2022-2026)
refers to Pakistan’s acute vulnerability to climate
change and proclaims the objective of “a climate
resilient Pakistan that prioritizes climate
adaptation, sustainable water management and
disaster management”. It aims to achieve the water,
food, health, and energy security of Pakistan. In
recent years our leaders have attended the annual
climate change summits convened by the UN
secretary-general and reiterated Pakistan’s
commitment to the global climate goals enshrined
in the Paris Agreement and elaborated by the
annual climate conferences (aka COPs). Their
statements are disseminated at home. Although
the effects of climate change must be tackled in
Pakistan’s coastal regions, cities and rural areas,
the heads of our provincial governments and
autonomous regions seldom speak about climate
change. However, with the support of domestic and
external partners the provinces have formulated
comprehensive climate change policies. The
implementation of those blueprints has been
uneven, though. The provincial governments say
they lack the financial and human capacities to
develop and implement climate change related
policies.
 Participation in regional and global conferences:
Our leaders’ participation in global climate
meetings has been mentioned earlier. Tragically the
main regional cooperation organization, the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc)
has become dormant since India scuttled the 16th
Saarc Summit due to be hosted by Pakistan in
Islamabad in November 2016.The environment
ministers who had played an important role in
catalyzing regional climate change initiatives have
also become silent.The South Asia Cooperative
Environment Programme (SACEP) has been doing
useful work but lacks political clout.
 Policies and strategies for action at federal and
provincial levels: The Climate Change Policy of
Pakistan (NCCP) issued in 2012 and its updated
version released in 2022 contain scores of policy
initiatives concerning mitigation, adaptation and
capacity development. In 2013, the Ministry of
Climate Change crafted a ‘Framework for the
Implementation of the NCCP’ which prioritized the
implementation of water and energy initiatives.
Follow-up on the policies has been insufficient. The
most notable climate projects are those developed
and funded by the World Bank and the Asian
Development Bank. Pakistan has also developed
several sectoral policies related to climate change
imperatives, namely the National Water Policy
(2018), the Alternative and Renewable Energy
Development Policy (2020), and the National
Electric Vehicles Policy (2020). The National Water
Policy includes a dozen or so major initiatives for
integrated water resource management. The
Energy Policy aims at producing 8000 MW of
electricity from renewable sources by 2025 and
20000 by 2030 representing 20 and 30 per cent of
the total energy produced in the country. The
Electric Vehicle Policy contains targets and
incentives aimed at capturing 30 per cent of all
passenger vehicles and heavy duty truck sales by
2030 and 90 per cent by 2040. Pakistan has also
submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution
to Climate Change (NDC) to the UN CC Secretariat
in 2016 and its revised version in 2021. The
mitigation measures in the NDCs include planting
ten (10) billion trees, a 50 per cent reduction in
projected GHG emissions (subject to international
grant finance), and increasing the share of installed
capacity through renewable sources such as solar,
wind, and biomass to 30 per cent. Together with
higher investments in hydropower projects, the
country’s share of clean energy would reach 60 per
cent by 2030. The NDCs also refer to the increase
in the country’s protected areas, including national
parks, a number of nature- based ecosystem
rejuvenation projects and recharging groundwater
aquifers. In July 2022, the government, in close
collaboration with the UN system, developed the
‘Living Indus’ programme for ecosystems
restoration and climate adaptation comprising
nearly two dozen projects and initiatives aimed at
developing a sustainable, climate resilient Indus
Basin such as clean energy schemes, sustainable
groundwater governance, eco-tourism, biodiversity
conservation, and eradication of plastic pollution.
The Living Indus programme will cover all the
provinces and autonomous regions and promote an
ecologically vibrant and climate resilient Pakistan.
 Climate change governance (institutional
arrangements): In 2017, Pakistan’s parliament
adopted a National Climate Change Act which
qualifies as the most significant milestone in the
evolution of the country’s climate agenda. The Act
creates a robust institutional architecture for
addressing all aspects of climate change. The Act
establishes a National Climate Change Council
(NCCC), chaired by the prime minister or a
minister nominated by him/her.The council is
mandated to approve climate related policies and
coordinate their implementation. The Act envisages
a National Climate Change Authority (NCCA) to
serve as the main mechanism for the entire
spectrum of climate change policies, plans of
action, projects for external funding etc. It also
provides for a Climate Change Fund for climate-
related activities.
The present government has established the National
Climate Change Council which has held its first
meeting chaired by the prime minister. The other
provisions of the Act have not been operationalized
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despite the persistent demands by civil society. The
absence of a robust governance apparatus has
impeded climate action. It has also compounded the
challenges facing the small, poorly resourced, and
overworked Ministry of Climate Change to handle its
exponentially increasing workload thanks to the
willingness of a number of friendly countries such as
the US, China, the UK, Germany, the Republic of
Korea, and Japan to support Pakistan’s climate
change related plans. There is a pressing need for
more proactive climate diplomacy.
The Ministry of Climate Change (MOCC) being the
officially designated focal point for climate change
represents the country at all major climate change
meetings, especially the annual COPs, the Petersburg
ministerial meeting, the inter-sessional conference
held in June, and the summit convened by the UN
secretary general in autumn. The MOCC also serves
as the focal point for all the dozen or so multilateral
environmental agreements (MEAS) ratified by Pakistan,
including the biodiversity, ozone protection,
desertification and waste and chemicals conventions.
Revisiting National Security Policy 2022-2026
Author: Dr. Ikramul Haq. Published in the Minute Mirror on March 6, 2023
Pakistan, from its inception, was envisioned as an
Islamic welfare state, internationally relevant and
aligned with universal principles of justice, equality,
and tolerance. Seeking a peaceful neighborhood based
on mutual co-existence, regional connectivity, and
shared prosperity. Being secure and economically
resilient, and empowered by diversity of culture and
demographic dividends, ensuring fundamental rights
and social justice without discrimination on the basis
of caste, creed, or belief. Promoting good governance
through strengthening of institutions, transparency,
accountability, and openness as articles of faith—
National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026
The National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026
rightly identifies the key factors that are important for
averting potential threats to our existence and for
ensuring Pakistan’s prosperity. However, despite
knowing the way forward towards stability and
security, our rulers—civil and military alike—have
failed to implement the requisite policies for reaping
their benefits. The principle of universal justice is the
most important element for any national security
vision. Unfortunately, institutions responsible for
dispensing justice appear quite indifferent. Since its
existence, Pakistan’s justice system has been working
against the spirit of universal justice. Consequently,
we have been placed in the list of countries performing
poorly with reference to abiding by Rule of Law.
Through the Constitution (Eighteenth Amendment)
Act, 2010 [“18th Amendment”], the government’s
executive branch was removed from the process of
appointment and removal of judges to allow
independence of judiciary but with unfettered powers
including self-accountability, this needs
reconsideration. Post 18th Amendment analysis of our
judicial performance shows that some decisions of the
courts have caused global embarrassment while those
challenged at international forums have resulted in
huge losses to the national treasury.
For evaluating judicial effectiveness, two important
aspects among others are quality of judgements
delivered and inclusion of women in higher judiciary
in accordance with their proportion in the population.
We have failed to ensure both. The 2022 Global
The operationalization of the Climate Change Act
would not only energize Pakistan’s climate-related
activities but also enable the MOCC to pay more
attention to the follow up of the other MEAs in
coordination with the relevant s ministries.
Resources (mobilization and deployment): The MOCC’s
budget has all along been one of the smallest among
federal ministries. Over the years, Pakistan has
received funding for around 35 or projects from the
international funding windows such as the Global
Environment Facility (GEF), the Multilateral Fund
established under the Montreal Protocol for the Ozone
Layer, and more recently the Green Climate Fund
(GCF) and the Adaptation Fund (AF).
Pakistan has been one of the smallest beneficiaries of
global climate funding, mainly due to its lack of
institutional capacity.
Gender Gap report has ranked us at 145th, right
above Afghanistan. The report states that Pakistan is
a country where women have the smallest share of
senior, managerial and legislative roles (4.5%), even
lower compared to other developing nations like
Jamaica, where women represent 56.6% of workers in
that category, or Togo, which has the highest share of
women in senior roles, at 70.1%.
The United States Commission on Religious Freedom
(USCIRF) in its report [Religious Freedon in Pakistan
2022] claims that Pakistan is a country of 96.3%
Muslims, a mix of Sunni and Shia (approximately 10-
15% Shia), 0.2% Ahmadi, Hindu and Christian, 1.6%
and Sikhs, Buddhists, Baha’is, and Zoroastrians
represent 1.0%.
The report specifically highlights growing intolerance
for religious diversity fueled by extremism and existing
problematic Pakistani legislation, citing recent attacks
on religious minorities in the country. The report of
USCIRF reveals that 84 individuals were charged
under the blasphemy laws in 2021, apart from the
incident of mob incited killings, including that of
factory manager Priyantha Kumara, a Sri Lankan
national. It also mentions the case of Muhammad
Mushtaq, a mentally challenged man from Khanewal,
who was accused of burning the holy Quran and was
stoned to death and his body hung from a tree.
The report further pinpoints incidents of target killing
of a Christian Priest in January 2022, death of two
Sikh businessmen brothers and a man professing
Ahmadiyya faith, killed by a seminary student in
Okara District, Punjab. These and many unreported
episodes not only testify to the poor performance of
country’s institutions for maintaining the spirit of
equity, but also confirm rising level of religious
intolerance in the society. Assurance to all citizens of
equality, religious freedom and equal opportunities
are prerequisites for stability and prosperity.
The national security vision of any nation state
envisages peaceful neighbourhood based on the
principle of mutual co-existence. However, Pakistan
remains perpetually in conflict with its neighbours,
especially India. Pakistan and India may have political
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differences but they have never treasured their
common heritage in terms of history, culture,
language, music, food, crops, so as to forge peace and
tranquility in the region. A prudent foreign policy
requires that both countries should maintain good
relations so that they can reduce their massive
defence expenses and divert these for the welfare of
their masses.
Pakistan and India have the capability to be good
trade partners. Despite sharing many similarities,
both countries are a consistent threat to each other’s
existence and are not ready to initiate dialogue to
address their unresolved disputes. Similarly, Iran’s
relations with Pakistan are not ideal either. Iran’s
government believes that Pakistan is responsible for
its security related issues.
Pakistan is a host to around three million Afghan
refugees and supports Taliban government in
Afghanistan against opposition from the West. Despite
sharing borders, culture and religion, Pakistan and
Afghanistan hold opposing views on many issues.
While Afghanistan blames Pakistan for toeing
America’s hostile policies towards it in the past,
Pakistan considers that Taliban-supported banned
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is responsible for
terrorist incidents within its borders [see also, A
lesson from the Taliban].
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is
aimed at promoting and strengthening regional
connectivity. This initiative is considered as game
changing for Pakistan and the entire region. However,
we have failed to maximise gains from the second
phase of CPEC—though the first one was completed
during Pakistan Muslim League’s (Nawaz) tenure
(2013-18).
The pace of completion of the second phase of CPEC
based on promoting industrial cooperation, trade,
agriculture and socio-economic development, slowed
down during the coalition government of Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) as it could not get proper
attention of our authorities. Despite taking massive
loans and making economic/industrial zones,
Pakistan failed to set up new industries vital for GDP
growth and for creating employment opportunities. As
a result, in the last four years, we have failed to
improve our GDP growth. This has led us to a position
where gigantic debt repayments, coupled with
insufficient revenue generation capacity, pose grave
national security risk. Due to our casual attitude
towards CPEC, China is not happy with us either.
Another important factor for national security is
economic prosperity that comes with political stability.
However, due to continuous intervention in state
affairs by powerful institutions, we could not frame
prudent and pragmatic policies for streamlining our
economic progress. In the past five years, we had six
finance ministers, with each of them coming up with a
different model to run fiscal affairs. Due to these
varied approaches the most needed International
Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF)
Programmes could not be completed within the agreed
time frame. Moreover, repeated violations of agreed
conditions with the lender of last resort have created a
huge trust deficit. Resultantly, they are reluctant to
execute staff level agreement after the Ninth Review.
Delay in reaching an agreement with IMF is increasing
our economic difficulties. Our external financing
needs have reached alarming levels as for the ongoing
year we have to pay US$20.49 billion, whereas for
next four years, estimated payments are on an
average US$25.23 billion per year. These numbers are
exclusive of the additional impact that can arise due
to current account deficit as mentioned by the IMF in
its reports.
Pakistan’s average annual gross financing
requirement in next four years will be around
US$37.5 billion. However, our current foreign
exchange level shows that external debt servicing
becoming due in one month is US$2.7 billion and
between 1 to 3 months it will rise to US$3.8 billion.
The country has very low levels of foreign reserves.
Furthermore, delay in signing the IMF programme will
push us into more problems. Without resumption of
the programme, it would be an uphill task to seek any
bilateral or multilateral monetary help to save
Pakistan from rescheduling external loans.
Our political leaders, beyond party affiliations, should
realize that merely writing wish lists in the national
security policy and acting contrary to them will not
bring us any good. The current political and economic
affairs are posing real threat to our national security.
We must devise a strategy for the implementation of
our national security vision contained in National
Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026, starting with
judicial reforms, followed by formulating a prudent
and pragmatic foreign policy.
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ON BRICS EXPANSION
BRICS expansion could be a bad idea: As leaders of
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa meet for
their annual BRICS summit starting on Tuesday,
there is little doubt that the grouping has taken on
new importance amid intensifying great power
competition. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the
West’s increasingly aggressive sanctions campaign
against both Russia and China serve as the context in
which the global diplomatic community will be
watching the conclave in Johannesburg. Indeed, the
war in Ukraine has already cast its shadow on the
meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin attending
only virtually to avoid South Africa any
embarrassment: The African nation is a member of
the International Criminal Court, which has issued a
warrant for Putin’s arrest on charges related to the
conflict, and would legally be required to take the
Russian leader into custody if he were to visit the
country. Yet with the possibility of any such drama
now ruled out, two more substantive and interrelated
developments will hold centre stage at the summit.
China and Russia have expressed interest in
expanding the group in an effort to grant it greater
weight in international affairs. Over 40 countries have
expressed interest in joining the BRICS group with 22
formally requesting membership. These include Arab
allies of the United States such as Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, and rivals
such as Iran. The list also includes countries from
Africa, South America and Asia.
The second issue is de-dollarisation. China and
Russia seem intent on using a larger BRICS forum as
a focal point of their efforts to cut their dependence —
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and that of the global economy — on the US currency
that has dominated cross-border invoicing and
settlements since World War II. Beijing and Moscow
are already conducting most of their trade in local
currencies, especially the Chinese Yuan. Russia has
pitched for a new BRICS currency, perhaps backed by
gold, that would be used as an international medium
of exchange between the members instead of the
dollar.
For Russia and China, de-dollarisation has taken on
fresh importance as they’ve increasingly come under
sanctions from the West. Fear of how American and
Western economic statecraft can damage their
economies and limit their national security autonomy
is a major issue of debate in both Moscow and Beijing.
But while South Africa, Brazil and India have better
relations with the West, they too see lesser reliance on
the dollar as being a positive for their economic
growth and trade potential. Brazil’s President Luiz
Inacio Lula de Silva recently stated that “[e]very night
I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade
on the dollar”. To them, de-dollarisation is less about
overthrowing King Dollar from atop the hierarchy of
reserve currencies and more about carving out a
separate method to transact between member states
without the need for the dollar, the Western-based
SWIFT messaging system and the services of New
York banks. That being said, BRICS in its current
form already represents 26 percent of global gross
domestic product (GDP) and 16 percent of global trade.
So a successful effort in this regard is likely to have
ripple effects.
But will this new currency gambit work? There is too
little known about the plan to reach definite
conclusions. The BRICS track record on de-
dollarisation has been mixed. China and Russia have
successfully reduced their dependence on the dollar
for cross-border trade. On the other hand, the New
Development Bank, established by BRICS in large part
to facilitate the de-dollarisation of state lending is
largely dependent on the dollar and is now struggling
to raise that currency due to having Russia as a
founding member. Its chief financial officer recently
acknowledged that “You cannot step outside of the
dollar universe and operate in a parallel universe.”
The existing dollar hegemony is backed by an
intensive network effect and a convenience factor. The
stability of the dollar and deep dollar-denominated
markets allow for predictability, ease of use and lower
cross-border transactions. A new BRICS currency may
address some of these challenges but certainly not all.
There is also a significant imbalance in resolve
regarding de-dollarisation within the grouping. Where
sanctioned countries like Russia and China, as well as
prospective members like Iran, are eager to disabuse
the US of its ability to impose costly financial
sanctions, others will be less inclined to bear the cost
of such a transition. Like the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation — which also includes China, Russia
and India among its members — a key issue
undermining the political impact of BRICS as a bloc is
the complex nature of relations between its nations,
and their differing approaches towards the West.
While they all dislike being called upon to abide by
Western sanctions, many of them have strong
relations with Western countries that they do not wish
to hurt. India and China are strategic rivals that don’t
see eye to eye on many issues. During last month’s
SCO summit, India refused to sign on to a key
economic document because it included Chinese
diplomatic language like references to Beijing’s Global
Development Initiative. India has broadly aligned itself
with Western interests against China. The availability
of Western economic support and access to technology
has increased significantly and West-India relations
are experiencing a new era. This has significant
economic benefits for India that make Modi very
sensitive about being seen as empowering a
counterbalance to the G7.
Brazil is being led by a left-wing president who is
worried about alienating Washington as a business
partner and is knowledgeable of how the US tends to
take an aggressive posture against South American
leaders who question its hegemony in the region.
South Africa is concerned that enhancing BRICS
membership will further reduce its influence in the
bloc. Officials in Pretoria are already concerned that
other BRICS countries are far more influential in the
group as its economic and social progress has stalled
in recent years. South Africa is also very concerned
about having to take sides in the emerging new Cold
War between the US and China — though it is under
a significant amount of pressure on South Africa to
align itself with the West. This is what has fuelled
demands by India, Brazil and South Africa for stricter
rules to determine whether an aspiring member
should be allowed to join or even become an observer.
India, in particular, has argued that democracies be
the focus of membership considerations. Such
differences have undermined the work of other major
global balancing organisations like the Organisation of
the Islamic Cooperation, G77 and the Non-Aligned
Movement, too. The ascension of various other
countries such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria,
with their own complex foreign policy preferences,
would not be seen favourably by Washington. But a
rapidly expanded BRICS won’t necessarily be more
powerful. Indeed, it could make the organisation more
incoherent and unable to reach a clear consensus on
anything of importance. (Author: Ahmadi Ali.
Published in Al Jazeera on August 22, 2023)
A warning to the US, but not a new Cold War: Last
week, the bloc of nations known as the BRICS took
the historic step of inviting six new countries for
membership. The grouping of Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa will be joined by Saudi Arabia,
Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina
and Egypt as part of an expanded collective.
But these six new entrants are among dozens of
countries that have expressed interest in joining the
BRICS. Further expansions of an organisation many
have touted as a systemic rival to the G7 seem almost
certain to follow in future summits. As economic
tensions soar and geoeconomics becomes a
battleground, countries of the Global South seem
drawn to the BRICS group, which includes and is
partially led by China. So, why are so many countries,
including many US partners, participating in this
project and seeking to boost its mission?
Many argue we are in the midst of a new Cold War.
Even members of the United States Congress have
lent credence to that concept. But that is an imperfect
analogy. As many have pointed out, China is a peer
economy to the US and is likely to overtake it in gross
domestic product (GDP) soon, while the former Soviet
Union’s economy was, at its peak, only a third that of
the US. But what is critically different in the global
landscape of alliances is that many countries are in a
position to choose their alignment. Scholars and
analysts have been discussing the rise of the Global
South for decades, especially since the 2008 financial
crisis, pointing to how the unprecedented and
sustained economic growth of many countries outside
the West was redistributing global power. Researchers
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have also concluded that while the global economy’s
centre of gravity was in the Atlantic, between the US
and Europe, in 1980, it had moved 4,800 miles
(7,725km) to Izmir, Turkey, by 2008 and will likely lie
somewhere between India and China by 2050. This
new environment presents the nations of the Global
South with options about how to respond to growing
friction among major powers and how to position their
nations in the midst of great power competition.
During the Cold War, one could awkwardly divide the
world into three camps: the Western bloc, the Soviet
bloc and the countries that were part of the so-called
non-aligned movement. After the Cold War, many of
the norms of the Western bloc formed what is often
referred to as the liberal rules-based international
order. This new order was enshrined into new
organisations like the World Trade Organization and
older venues like the United Nations during a
“unipolar moment”, when democratic capitalism and
trade liberalisation seemed to have vanquished every
foe. But today, the rising power balancing the US is
not looking to form a Soviet-type bloc. The reasons are
both material and ideational. China does not have the
military capacity to project power over large parts of
the planet and make security guarantees to faraway
friends. It also has a grim history with alliance politics
– such as its fallout with the Soviet Union. So it
eschews the kind of alliances that define the US’s
relationship with its linchpin allies in Europe and
East Asia. Beijing has many partners, even
“comprehensive strategic partners”, but no allies.
Beijing also has a precarious relationship with the
international order Washington built. The order is one
designed and carried out with US interests and
preferences in mind – and to a lesser extent those of
its close allies. As China rises, the West, and the US
in particular, jealously guard the rules they’ve crafted
and the pegging order within those organisations.
China’s voting power and position in international fora
are still extremely small compared with its economic
weight. For example, China has a 5 percent voting
share in the World Bank’s main lending arm despite
representing 16 percent of the global GDP.
China has repeatedly asked for its voting power, and
those of other emerging economies, to be increased to
represent modern global economic distribution to no
avail. This is a rather enticing combination to many
countries of the Global South. Many of them also see
their preferences and interests underrepresented or
ignored in the world order as currently constituted.
Additionally, aligning with organisations like BRICS
does not mean binding commitments to one side of
the new Cold War. The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) may be a security cooperation
forum like NATO but it lacks any Article 5 feature. If
the worst-case scenario, a Sino-American military
confrontation, came to pass, US allies would be
expected to quickly join it in the war but China’s
partners would not. In fact, an increasingly large
coalition of countries with competing and conflicting
political systems, ideologies and approaches to the
West may produce an increasingly unwieldy
organisation and exacerbate its collective action
problem. But China is clearly gambling that a larger,
more geographically and economically diverse set of
countries can eventually be marshalled towards the
goal of enhancing their collective representation in the
world order. For example, the inclusion of more
countries, especially major commodity exporters like
Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, may
make greater economic integration among BRICS
states and the use of non-dollar currencies in trade
among them more appetising. Scholars who have
examined Beijing’s relationship with the international
order argue that China seeks to engage international
institutions to argue for its preferences. But when it is
denied what it sees as power commensurate with its
global position, it seeks to create parallel institutions.
This can be seen in the form of the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank, the SCO and BRICS.
The US and its linchpin allies have common values
and deep social interaction. More importantly, they
have similar forms of government and economic
management. This both binds them together and
solves collective action problems regarding world
affairs. US partners in the Global South, however, are
not under this umbrella and instead court
multipolarity to maximise their bargaining position
vis-à-vis duelling powers. Joining a forum like the
BRICS is less a declaration of alignment with Beijing
and more an assertion by a country that they wish to
remain neutral or play both sides in line with their
specific national interest. (Author: Ahmadi Ali.
Published in Al Jazeera on August 31, 2023)
Multipolar world — BRICS vs G7 — spurring return
of coups in Africa? A series of violent change of
governments in recent times in French-speaking West
and Central Africa by military men is raising the
spectre of a return to the hoary days of dystopia and
tyranny rampant in the continent between the 1960s
and the end of the Cold War. The Cold War
represented a global system of bipolarity in which the
United States and the Soviet Union competed
intensely for global domination. Relations between the
Soviet Union and the US were driven by a complex
interplay of ideological, political, and economic factors,
which led to shifts between cautious cooperation and
often bitter superpower rivalry over the years. The
interventions and alliances birthed in Africa between
the 1960s and 1980s helped to shape the realities of
the bipolar world system. During the Cold War, west,
central, eastern and southern Africa proved to be
fertile grounds for proxy war as the US and the Soviet
Union found it critical to expand their spheres of
influence, largely by promoting leadership in the
‘Third World’ that would be sympathetic to their
causes. Out of the 486 attempted or successful
military coups carried out globally since 1950, Africa
accounts for the largest number with 214, of which at
least 106 have been successful. Data compiled by
American researchers Jonathan M. Powell and
Clayton L. Thyne show that at least 45 of the 54
nations across the African continent have experienced
at least a single coup attempt since 1950. Between
1958 and 2008, most coups in Africa occurred in
former French colonies, as did six of the seven since
2019. Similarly, 12 of the 20 coups in the sub-region
since 2010 happened there. The latest successful
putsch in Burkina Faso came on the heels of two
attempted ones, in 2015 and 2016. The end of the
Cold War also saw the end of the bipolar world system.
After the Cold War, a neoliberal democratic
programme was inaugurated in Africa. It promised to
free the continent from authoritarianism and military
seizures of power, in favour of political pluralism and
the rule of law. Thus, many decades later, coups were
supposed to be rare, if not a thing of the past, and
dictatorships were supposed to be on the decline.
In February, 1989, Francis Fukuyama gave a talk on
international relations at the University of Chicago.
With the Cold War coming to an end, he foresaw a
spread of liberal democracies throughout the world.
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On the contrary, Samuel Huntington presented his
self-fulfilling prophecy, namely the “clash of
civilisations”, where he argued that international
politics would now be centred by the interplay of West
and non-Western civilisations and thus lead to conflict.
Ultimately, it was some 30 years of peace and quiet in
Africa until recent times. The soldiers are coming back.
From Burkina Faso to Mali, Niger, Guinea, Chad,
Sudan and now Gabon, mainly western-trained army
officers are seizing back the reins of power from
politicians. Researchers Hakeem Onapajo and
Muhammad Dan Suleiman assert that “the quest for
strategic influence and advantage by foreign powers in
Africa has involved them in coups in the continent”.
“They tolerate local politics and authoritarianism as
long as their strategic advantage is served,” they said.
With more of the region’s elected governments at risk
of violent overthrow, French President Emmanuel
Macron has warned that “all the presidents across the
region are more or less aware of the fate that awaits
them” unless democracy is restored. “I think coups in
Africa are a contagion now,” Feyi Fawehinmi, an
author and researcher, said. For Cheta Nwanze, a
partner at the Lagos-based consultancy SBM
Intelligence, the rising spate of coups “is part of a
trend that is largely sweeping across Francophone
Africa (for now) as French-supported autocrats
pretending to be democrats slowly lose their grip on
power”. “There’s a risk it would jump to Anglophone
Africa, as there’s also dissatisfaction with the
economic outcomes of 30 years of civilian rule in those
countries, but the risk is mostly in French Africa.
Cameroon and Togo are likely next,” he added. The
widening ‘coup belt’ across the Sahel, West Africa and
Central Africa demonstrates a repudiation of US and
western influence and pressure.
Years of unipolar power dominance and influence by
the US and its western allies in the continent through
aid, loans, sanctions and threats of sanctions has left
many Africans unimpressed. The continent has made
little economic progress during this period. Onapajo
and Suleiman said: “Governance deficits, non-
fulfilment of the entitlements of citizenship, frustrated
masses (most of whom are young) and growing
insecurity are chief among the inward-looking causes.
International factors, including external influence, are
among the outward-looking.”
These immediate factors, according to them, “exist in
a broader context that allows immediate causes to
persist long enough to spark coups. Unimpressive
democratic conditions in countries, and the
consistency of foreign influence in African countries,
make it unsurprising that there have been recent
attempted and successful military takeovers of
government”. While the US’ Africa policy promises
economic partnerships in areas that speak to both
African economic priorities and US strengths, for
many in the continent, the west is more interested in
the political and economic mileage it can get from
Africa.
The rise of the BRICS group of nations and its recent
expansion poses a counterweight to the G7 western
powers. Originally, the countries came together as a
grouping in the late 2000s to coalesce around issues
of finance, development and trade. However, the bloc
has now grown to symbolise one side of the ledger in a
world of bitter strategic rivalry and growing
multipolarity. “Great attention to the BRICS around
the world has helped China and Russia’s rhetorical
campaign to pin ‘the West’ against ‘the rest’,” Andrew
Cheatham, senior advisor, Global Policy at the United
States Institute for Peace, said. Kamissa Camara,
Mali’s former minister of foreign affairs, believes that
Russia’s role in these coups and western charges of
toxic influence by Moscow in the continent is always
overstated. Camara said: “These Russian flags that
you see right after a coup has taken place have been
planted there. I have absolutely no doubt about that.
“I do not believe that Russia is an important player in
this region. I believe that there is definitely a Russian
propaganda at play. But culturally and even looking
at these youth in West Africa, they speak French,
most of them. They study in French, and they either
want to immigrate to France or the United States. I do
not see any of them queuing in front of the Russian
embassy.” But focusing on foreign influences ignores
each country’s internal politics and security, as well
as the effects they have on each other. On a cursory
look, Deji Olatoye, a lawyer, said: “The Ali Bongo
overthrow plays into the succession of coups that we
have seen in the last couple of years across Africa.
However, Gabon is not an Islamist-ridden Sahelian
country. It may even appear to play into the so-called
“messy middle” thesis of the Economist magazine —
the idea that Africa’s key dysfunctional places stretch
from the Sahel in West Africa through Sudan to
Central Africa. However, it signals something different.
Gabon, though resource-rich like DRC, has managed
a facade of stability in the last few decades. “I think
the clearest signal is that there is a notice now being
served on democracies that have failed to properly
launch across the continent. We expect incipient
democracies to totter at first, but then to mature as
time goes on. What we have seen in the last decade is
that the wave of democratisation that swept through
Africa from the early 90s have largely produced
regimes that did not go beyond the box-ticking of
election cycles.
“There is a crying legitimacy gap, not just in the
quality of elections, but in the outcome – the so-called
democracy dividends – for the populace. This has
manifested in diverse ways across the continent. In
places like Gabon, Togo, Cameroon and Equatorial
Guinea, it has manifested in effete sight-tight regimes
and dynasties. The clearest signal from Gabon is to
these other sight-tight regimes, including in
neighbouring Cameroon where President Biya’s regime
is deepening separatist disaffection. For other parts of
the continent where election cycles are deteriorating,
no matter how we choose to see or not see what has
happened in Gabon, Ali Bongo’s overthrow is also a
notice.” The challenge to majority rule in Africa,
Camara concurs is that “democracy as we understand
it in the west has not been that successful in some
African countries, including the ones that have
recently experienced the coup”. “And so, first of all,
what I’m hoping is that the youth in these countries
define their own path and design the institutions that
they want to see,” she said. “And my second hope is
that we, as international partners, put our emphasis
on the private sector, which will be able to create the
jobs that will be needed in the next few years when
these millions of youth will come onto the drug market
seeking a better future.” (Author: Nosa Igbinadolor.
Published in Business Today on September 1, 2023)
China’s vision for the Global South:
When the BRICS recently decided to invite six
countries to join as new members, Chinese President
Xi Jinping hailed the expansion as a historic move
that highlights the resolve of the BRICS to pursue
unity and cooperation in the developing world. Beyond
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the BRICS, Xi’s comment is precisely a reflection of
what China envisions for the Global South. Since war
broke out in Ukraine, the US-led West has found itself
in a somewhat awkward position where, despite its
lobby and charm offensive, the Global South can’t be
persuaded into siding with the West on this war. In a
recent example, a July summit between the European
Union and Latin America failed to reach even a bland
statement on the war due to their huge rift on this
issue. The root cause of this “West against the rest”
phenomenon is that the West has in many ways failed
to grasp the real concerns and priorities of the Global
South. To most developing countries across Asia,
Africa and Latin America, there are much more
pressing issues to worry about – recovery from the
Covid-19 pandemic, indebtedness, food security,
climate change, etc. Plus, ties with Russia also matter
to many of them, so they have pragmatically taken a
neutral position that enables them to better navigate
the geopolitics related to the war. In addition,
Washington’s narrative in framing the war – in fact,
many other international issues as well – as
“democracy versus autocracy” is certainly not helpful
in winning the hearts of the Global South countries. A
little critical thinking would tell us that to define
whether or not a country is a democracy using
Western criteria alone is in and of itself undemocratic,
and it only runs a risk of entrenching the existing
ideological divisions in the world today.
China’s ideas such as “community of shared future”
and “balanced, sustainable security architecture”
appear to better dovetail with the realistic need of the
Global South countries. In essence, China’s worldview
calls for shelving frictions and prioritizing cooperation
for the sake of mutual prosperity, rather than pushing
countries to choose sides. More importantly, China’s
proposals on global governance are not empty slogans.
Instead, they are based on concrete actions in China’s
foreign policy. When it comes to helping mitigate
conflicts, for instance, China supplies more UN
peacekeeping troops than the other four permanent
members of the UN Security Council combined. Since
1990, Chinese soldiers involved in UN peacekeeping
missions have left their footprints in more than 20
countries and regions across Southeast Asia, the
Middle East and Africa. During a June visit to China
by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Xi Jinping
raised a three-point proposal aimed at working
towards peace between Palestine and Israel. In fact,
China has been involved in mediating between the two
sides since 2002, when China set up its special envoy
for the Middle East. Some observers might view the
Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement as China enjoying
the fruits of earlier diplomatic work done by others,
but the deal was actually a result of many years of
balanced diplomacy and trust building that China has
carried out in the Middle East. In China’s mentality,
peace and development come hand in hand. While the
former certainly paves the way to the latter, the latter
can also enhance the former in return. Let’s not forget
that China’s growing economic ties with both Iran and
Saudi Arabia are an indispensable factor behind
Beijing’s successful brokering of the Iran-Saudi
rapprochement. And at a time when ASEAN has
become China’s largest trading partner, there are
more incentives on both sides to maintain stability in
the South China Sea. In terms of development, it is no
secret that China has made enormous efforts to
promote trade, cross-border investment, and
infrastructure connectivity across the Global South.
According to data compiled by the Chinese
government, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has
over the past decade driven investments worth close
to $1 trillion by incubating over 3,000 projects around
the world. As a result, some 420,000 jobs have been
created and nearly 40 million people have been lifted
out of poverty in countries involved in the BRI. To a
large extent, it is the success of the BRI that has
prompted Western countries to roll out their own
initiatives in a bid to compete with China, such as the
G7’s Build Back Better World and the EU’s Global
Gateway.
From China’s perspective, anyone’s promise to invest
in the Global South is not a bad thing. In fact, the BRI
itself represents a platform that is open to the West as
well, and some Western corporations have already
benefited from it. In 2016, the General Electric gained
orders worth $2.3 billion for construction and
engineering projects under the BRI. Similarly,
Siemens has worked with over 100 Chinese partners
on BRI-related energy and mining projects. Citibank
and Deutsche Bank have participated in the financing
of BRI projects. By comparison, given the fact that a
starting point of the Western initiatives is to compete
with the BRI, whether they’ll provide opportunities to
Chinese companies remains an open question. Trade
and investment are one aspect of China’s contribution
to development in the Global South. Furthermore, its
economic rise over the past few decades represents a
victory for the mentality that each country deserves a
development path in accordance with its own
conditions. China has pursued its economic
achievements through a path featuring not only
learning from the advanced economies but also
keeping its own DNA. In this sense, there could be
tremendous inspirations for underdeveloped countries
regarding how to manage their future destiny. It looks
like multi-polarity is becoming a reality in the world
today. In one example, the G7 industrialized
countries’ share of global GDP declined to less than
45% in 2021, compared to nearly 70% in the late
1980s. As a major power in the developing world,
China has a responsibility to help bolster unity and
prosperity in the Global South. The goal is to establish
a more equitable world order with increased
representation of the Global South in international
affairs. (Author: Ding Heng. Published in Pakistan
Observer on September 5, 2023)
BRICS & the future of Chinese influence: BRICS
has taken a significant step in expanding its
membership to six influential countries in the Middle
East, Africa, and South America. This includes
Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and
the UAE. The inclusion of these six countries is seen
as a major win for BRICS, es-pecially China. It is
generally believed that a new eco-nomic and political
order is on the rise as influential Middle Eastern
countries rally behind China’s led diplomatic and
economic initiatives.
Theatrics and optics are important in today’s world.
Narratives also play a key role in global poli-tics.
There is a mixed narrative and debate on BRICS and
the way China has asserted its influence. It depends
on how one views the developments.
The criticism of BRICS is that it does not have any
planned and well-elaborated membership criteria.
Therefore, becom-ing part of BRICS does not actually
mean much. It also does not have a well-chalked-out
strategic direction for what the goal and ultimate aim
of including these six countries in BRICS would be. It
should also be kept in mind that there are limits to
cooperation among rival states in the Middle East.
Would new-ly evolved rivals like the UAE, KSA, and
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Iran merge their inter-ests in BRICS, or is it merely
about securing a seat at the table? This is the
developing criticism of BRICS and its expansion that
might see new critical points in the coming weeks.
There is also appreciation for BRICS. And it comes in
abundance. The general public in the global south
celebrates the expan-sion. China is their new hero, at
least in terms of optics. To them, China is the big
country that is out there to build con-sensus,
cooperation, and address issues like regional rivalry.
Recent diplomatic developments like the Saudi-Iran
détente are considered a Chinese masterstroke and a
diplomatic win. A plethora of former diplomats in the
region, experts, and academics have appreciated the
rapprochement, which has added much value to the
Chinese diplomatic narrative. The BRICS expansion
and inclusion of six states is yet another feather in the
cap for China.
As diplomatic developments take place rapidly, it is
impor-tant to take stock of the future of Chinese
influence. Influence has many tools. At the moment,
the Chinese strat-egy seems to be focused on creating
an image that the world wants to see. The last two
decades of ravaging wars, politi-cal upheavals, and
changing alliances have created anxieties for the
Middle Eastern states. During these periods, they
have wished to extricate themselves from the
quagmire of conflict that could end up toppling
governments and kingdoms. The Middle East has
been in the eye of the storm for too long.
Con-sequently, it wants to see a world of certainty,
predictability, and stability. China offers just that.
China proposes to put an end to potential and
anticipated cri-ses in the Middle East through
diplomacy. This is a relief for many apprehensions
that the region has had. How long that will last is yet
to be seen. Its durability is not the issue in question.
The real challenge is putting the fears to rest for the
moment.
BRICS boasts to represent 40% of the global
population and a quarter of global GDP. With six
influential states joining the mechanism, the total
wealth would be around 31 trillion dollars. However,
where China lacks is a durable regional mechanism
that can actually perform and bring about change at
the grassroots level. This requires cooperation and
foolproof economic mechanisms outlined by the states.
At the moment, the Middle Eastern countries have not
outlined a proper mechanism for cooperation. It is still
in a nascent stage. The region is recovering from
decades of wars, like Afghanistan, and is infested with
terrorist organisations operating from the Far East to
Africa. Economic stagnation, terrorism, and regional
rivalries are some of the many issues that plague the
regions of the Far East, Asia, the Middle East, and
Africa. China is probably not commit-ted to
addressing all of that. For a ‘Chinese order’ to take off,
it needs to offer something that would address these
issues at the earliest. China has captured the
imagination of many. The influ-ence has started to
show some signs. However, sophistication and
political finesse are still needed. (Author: Dr. Taimur
Shamil. Published in The Nation on August 30, 2023)
Navigating the 21st century requires solidarity not
polarity. Over the past decade or so, signs that the
American-dominated world order is crumbling have
become increasingly more visible. The rise of China –
boosted by its entry into the World Trade Organization
in 2001 – has challenged the unipolarity maintained
by the United States. Beijing has undoubtedly become
a dominant force in the global economy, bolstering its
military and strategic capabilities. But it has not been
the only power trying to assert itself in recent years.
Russia under the revisionist leadership of Vladimir
Putin has also sought to regain its status as a world
power. To that end, the Russian president has
adopted more assertive politics vis-à-vis the West and
moved closer to China, especially after Xi Jinping
became China’s leader in 2013. Russia’s full-scale
invasion of Ukraine has accelerated the showdown
over global leadership and prompted new questions
over who should lead the ever more complicated
international system. Some have argued for a
multipolar world system, claiming it would make it
easier to manage global challenges, such as climate
change, pandemics and cybercrimes. They say it is
fairer, more equitable and democratic than the
unipolar or bipolar world systems. Others contend
that there is no one better suited to lead a fair and
democratic world than the world’s leading democracy,
America, along with its democratic allies. After all, it
remains the dominant military and economic
superpower, dwarfing China, India, Russia, Japan
and others in terms of its hard, smart and soft powers.
Indeed, none comes even close to contesting US
geopolitical clout, forward military deployments or
maritime projection. The US has about 750 bases in
at least 80 countries worldwide. China commands one
base – in Djibouti. Similarly, there is no match for its
economic dexterity and vitality, high-tech innovations
and commercial successes, not to mention the
unrivalled Brand America. These claims hold much
truth and may have been totally convincing back in
the 1990s when the US emerged victorious from the
Cold War after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
But they no longer are. In the past two decades,
America’s political and economic decline has taken its
toll over its global leverage and authority, and its
Faustian deals with unsavvy autocrats have damaged
its credibility. Strategically, US military entanglements
in the Greater Middle East under the pretext of the
“global war on terror” since the 9/11 attacks have
greatly undermined US power projection. The
disastrous war in Iraq and the long and humiliating
defeat in Afghanistan showed the limits of the US
military force. Strategic disengagement and
retrenchments under Presidents Barack Obama’s and
Donald Trump’s administrations made it difficult to
shape events and influence leaders, who increasingly
deemed the US an erratic and unreliable partner.
On the economic front, the 2008 financial crisis,
which started in the US and threatened the collapse of
the global financial system, has dealt a blow to its
neoliberal system, pushing more countries to diversify
their economic relations. It also paved the way for the
rise of the G20, and the emergence of mid-size powers,
which now exercise growing influence on the global
stage at the expense of the US and its G7 allies.
Meanwhile, Brand America suffered bigly, not least
because of the advent of Trumpism in 2016,
symbolising the retreat of Western liberalism and the
rise of populist, corrupt and autocratic forces in the
West and beyond. These trends rendered American-
promoted liberalism a harder sell to the rest of the
world. US President Joe Biden’s declaration that
“America is back” after he defeated Trump in the 2020
election was not followed by a notable resurgence of
US power. His attempts to salvage US leadership
through the so-called “rules-based international
system” have failed. This system has been viewed as a
rigged scheme that favours the West against the rest
and, in the process, bypasses international law. And
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yet, the alternative – a multipolar world – is not such
a bright prospect as other powers step in to fill the
void. Multiple world powers competing and fighting to
enhance their interests and advance their influence
does not necessarily add up to a better world. Rather
the contrary: Diversity shaped by animosity could also
lead to anarchy and chaos.
That is why, as the debate over the new global
leadership rages, the more important question to ask
is how this new order will be led and managed. It can
be either driven by strategic and ideological hostility –
which would have a devastating impact on the world –
or by a more pragmatic, power-sharing scheme
shaped by expansive economic and commercial
relations. If history is any guide, there is no hope to be
had from international law or international
agreements when world powers are at loggerheads.
Worse, the management of global challenges would
suffer. The past 30 years of unipolarity and the
preceding 30 years of bipolarity may have failed
miserably to bring peace and security to the world,
IEA GOVERNMENT IN AFGHANISTAN
THE concept of economic interdependence and its
associated theories of liberal inter-governmentalism
and neo-functionalism serve as the key driver for the
regional integration of states across the world. The
South Asian region has been prone to conflict since
last four decades, particularly the two major wars
fought in Afghanistan had its dynamic implications for
the geopolitics and regional integration. Liberals and
realists have argued that economic interdependence
and conflict amongst states are inter-related with each
other and while states tend to cooperate to further
their trade relationship; consequently, they are keen
to initiate a conflict to attain their hegemonic designs.
China has emerged as one of the global powers in the
world with its deep-rooted geoeconomic interests
around the world. Being a neighbouring state,
Pakistan’s relationship with China has been cordial
and diplomatic and both states have collaborated and
supported each other in their global and regional
initiatives. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
as a flagship project of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
had been initiated in 2013 with a vision to transform
and integrate the geoeconomics of the region. Through
its energy, infrastructure and transportation projects,
China has pledged to invest more than $62 billion in
different projects in Pakistan in order to enhance the
actual trade potential of the region. Gwadar is being
envisioned as one of the busiest deep sea-ports in the
near future while trade connectivity with Central Asia
through Afghanistan will transform a conflict prone
region into an economic hub. Chinese influence in
Afghanistan and its investment in the country has
been evident since the Ghani Administration. As the
United States ended its diplomatic presence in the
country in August 2021, China furthered its politico-
diplomatic relationship with Taliban Administration.
Recently, a Chinese firm signed a 25-year multimillion
dollar contract to extract oil from Afghanistan. Such a
venture indicates China’s long-term interest and its
geoeconomic relationship with Afghanistan. Though it
is a fact that China has also not recognized the
Taliban government in Afghanistan as of now,
however, its economic and diplomatic engagement
cannot be overlooked, keeping in view its vision of
reviving the old Silk Route.
Afghanistan is geostrategically positioned at the
crossroads of South and Central Asia and
materializing the dream of transforming the region in
to an economic hub is conditional to peace and
but make no mistake, the previous 300 years of
multipolarity were utterly disastrous, leading to
devastating regional, colonial and imperials wars of all
strands and horrors. And so, it seems to me that
despite having the advantage of a cleareyed historical
perspective, today’s world powers seem as rash as
their 19th and 20th century predecessors,
approaching world affairs as a zero-sum game instead
of a win-win gambit. In the not-so-distant past, world
powers tended to be hypocritical, but today they are
increasingly cynical as if it is naive to be righteous
and smart to be cruel. In sum, multipolarity should
not be confused with multilateralism. A bunch of
competing world powers do not make for a responsible
international community. As long as international
relations are driven by power and greed, not
cooperation and shared creed, the world will suffer
regardless of who or how many are at the top. Given
the choice, the world should embrace solidarity over
polarity and collaboration over hostility. (Author:
Marwan. Published in Al Jazeera on June 19, 2023)
stability in the country. It is an undenied fact that the
after effects of conflict in Afghanistan over the last
four decades and militancy in the region has the
tendency to negatively influence the geoeconomic
realities. Strained relationship between the Taliban
administration and Pakistan will add to the challenges
for the varying sides. Moreover, the spillovers of
Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as any possible future
US intervention in the region is also a major challenge
since the human rights issues as well as ban on
female education by Taliban Administration in
Afghanistan is a major challenge for the international
community. China’s constructive engagement with the
political leadership of Pakistan and Afghanistan as
well as its active support in the economic survival of
both these states is undenied; however, the futuristic
geoeconomic realities of the region require a varying
perspective to be envisioned. Peace and stability in
Afghanistan are the foremost requirement for any
inter-state economic relationship and this issue needs
to be addressed by taking regional as well as global
stakeholders on board. Rather sidelining Taliban, the
global community needs to recognize the Taliban
Administration in order to engage them politico-
economically. First step needs to be taken by a global
power preferably, the United States and rest are
expected to follow the course. Soft diplomacy by
Taliban can actually help them attain this objective
much swiftly. Once the Taliban Government is
recognized by states around the world, their global
interaction will help them to initiate economic
engagement with states across the world. Moreover,
enhanced economic activity in the country will lead to
reduced poverty and decline in terrorism and
militancy. Taliban Administration also needs to halt
their support to the TTP in order to strengthen their
relationship with Pakistan. Conversely, if Taliban
government is not recognized by any state, the world
may witness another tragic attack like 9/11 leading to
another global conflict. Political reality like Taliban
must not be undermined and if the United States can
negotiate and sign Doha Accord with them, it can
recognize their government as well, particularly after
they have survived around 18 months with a torn
economy. China, Pakistan and Afghanistan will
become a regionally integrated economic reality, only
if Afghanistan and Pakistan will stabilize their political
economy and mend their relationship with the rest of
the world. Recognition of Taliban government followed
by initiation of their economic relationship with the
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rest of the world, eradication of militancy followed by
peace and stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan,
mature political relationship amongst the political
parties of Pakistan and a collective effort aimed at
working for national interest and balance in the
relationship with the global powers are some of the
prerequisites for an integrated geoeconomic vision to
transform into a reality. Cooperation for all the states
Nuclear weapons should be relics of the past
In the quiet and peaceful steppe of Kazakhstan, a
dark and ominous legacy lingers beneath the surface.
Over four decades between 1949 and 1989, 456
nuclear bombs were detonated by the Soviet Union at
the Semipalatinsk Test Site in northern Kazakhstan.
While the echoes of nuclear explosions have long
faded, the scars of nuclear testing run deep. More
than 1.5 million people in Kazakhstan were exposed to
the toxic fallout from those tests. Countless lives were
irreversibly altered, and the environment was forever
scarred. I am a living testament to the horrors of
nuclear testing, as I was born without arms due to the
effects of nuclear radiation.
Decades have passed since the Semipalatinsk Test
Site was used as a canvas for nuclear experimentation,
yet the threat to the world from nuclear weapons
remains all too real. The global confrontation between
major powers has raised the possibility that nuclear
weapons could be used, even if accidentally. The
spectre of mutually assured destruction looms large,
reminding us that the line between peace and
catastrophic conflict is paper-thin. It is a line we can
no longer afford to tread. The recent diplomatic efforts
and agreements aimed at halting nuclear testing and
proliferation have shown promise, but they are merely
steps on a longer journey. The Comprehensive
Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which seeks to ban
all nuclear explosions, is a crucial instrument in this
endeavour. Yet, despite its adoption by a vast majority
of nations, it awaits ratification by some key states,
preventing its full implementation. Governments and
leaders must recognise that the pursuit of security
through the possession of nuclear weapons is a fallacy.
Kazakhstan once had the fourth-largest nuclear
arsenal in the world. But my country voluntarily
relinquished these weapons after gaining
independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite
being a young sovereign nation, the lack of nuclear
weapons did not threaten our security and stable
development. Quite the contrary. Through its multi-
vector foreign policy, Kazakhstan has developed good
relations with all its neighbours and beyond.
Kazakhstan’s case is proof that true security can be
achieved through the complete elimination of nuclear
weapons. Our path forward is clear. We must
advocate for the universal ratification of the CTBT,
leaving no room for ambiguity regarding the end of
nuclear testing. This will require not only political will
but also a collective commitment to securing a safer
world for generations to come. The pursuit of
disarmament must be a shared endeavour that
transcends borders, ideologies and differences. All
nuclear-armed states must demonstrate their
commitment to disarmament through substantial
reductions in their arsenals.
Nuclear disarmament is not a distant dream; it is a
tangible goal within our reach. The success of
initiatives like the International Campaign to Abolish
Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), which led to the adoption of
the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
(TPNW), demonstrates the power of global unity. The
number of nuclear weapons has declined from around
is the only way-forward to strengthen themselves as
well as transform the region in a geoeconomic hub;
however, prospects of conflict and interference of
global powers in the region with their strategic
objectives must not be overlooked as well. (Author:
Hassam Ahmed Siddiqi. Published in Pakistan
Observer on September 2, 2023)
65,000 in the mid-1980s to around 12,500 today,
thanks to the landmark Treaty on the Non-
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). However, we
cannot stop here. As the world marks the
International Day against Nuclear Tests on August 29,
which the UN declared in 2009 to mark the closure of
the Semipalatinsk Test Site in 1991, we must embrace
global disarmament. It is a moral imperative, a duty to
future generations, and a responsibility we cannot
shirk. The resources currently spent on maintaining
and modernising nuclear arsenals could be
channelled into eradicating poverty, addressing
climate change, and advancing education and
healthcare. Education is a powerful tool in the fight
for disarmament. By raising awareness about the
devastating consequences of nuclear weapons and
testing, we can inspire collective action and public
demand for change. That is why I have dedicated my
life to urging the world to rid itself of the destructive
menace of nuclear weapons. Kazakhstan is hoping to
achieve a nuclear-weapon-free world by 2045, the
centennial of the founding of the United Nations. We
have just over two decades to make this a reality, but
the efforts must pick up pace now. The path towards
nuclear disarmament is not an easy one, but it is a
journey worth embarking upon. We owe it to ourselves,
our children, and the generations yet unborn. Let us
not be remembered as the generation that failed to
heed the call of reason and compassion. Instead, we
should be remembered as the generation that had the
courage to stand up and say, “No more.” Let us be the
ones to make nuclear weapons a relic of the past,
forever banished from our world. (Author: Karipbek
Kuyukov. Published in Al-Jazeera on August 29, 2023)
Diplomacy crucial to ending world’s escalating
arms race: Ten years since the Syrian regime
launched its atrocious chemical weapons attack on
Douma, killing more than 1,400 people, the state of
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international affairs should be ringing major alarm
bells in terms of the potential combat use of weapons
of mass destruction, including nuclear.
At times, the world has come close. Nuclear-armed
powers India and Pakistan have faced off against each
other. As the years passed, previously closely guarded
secrets about the 1962 Cuban missile crisis have
revealed that the world was even closer than we
thought to a nuclear disaster between the US and the
Soviet Union. The success of the film “Oppenheimer”
may just jolt the world’s leaderships and publics from
the comfort blanket of complacency and inertia.
Firstly, global clashes and instability are thriving. The
standout issue is Ukraine and the Russian invasion,
as tensions with NATO descended into near-direct
confrontation. As the war has escalated, the US and
its NATO allies have been sucked in further, with ever-
increasing weapons supplies and training. For years,
NATO members have, in theory, agreed to a 2 percent
of gross domestic product target for defense spending.
In 2014 ,only three members achieved this, while this
year 11 are expected to do so.
Finland has joined NATO, with Sweden to follow, both
for their own security, while at the same time
escalating matters with Russia. Even Switzerland is
reexamining its long-term neutrality status with NATO
in mind. It has already declared that it wants to join
the European Sky Shield Initiative, a German-led
project to develop European air and missile defense
systems. Military spending in Europe grew by 13
percent in 2022, the largest rise since the end of the
Cold War.
In the longer run, the US-China relationship is
arguably far more perilous. Russian power is on the
wane — it is a mid-level economy with a rusting, aging
military machine. China is the surging global force
challenging the US at all levels. It is desperate to
assert its predominance in the Asia-Pacific, but some
fear farther afield too. Taiwan is just one of the hot
button issues that have to be managed carefully.
Chinese posturing is alarming not just to Taiwan, but
also other neighbors including India, Australia and
Japan. Australia has invested heavily in its own long-
range strike capabilities, purchasing US systems.
Beijing has told India to keep calm after an official
Chinese map appeared to lay claim to Indian territory
in northeastern Arunachal Pradesh state and the
disputed Aksai Chin plateau. On this map, China also
continues to maintain its claim to most of the South
China Sea. Keeping calm may not be so easy.
India has tensions with both Pakistan and China. If
China expands its arsenal, New Delhi may follow suit,
with a knock-on effect for Pakistan.
The more irrational and unpredictable actors include
North Korea. Pyongyang’s provocative missile tests are
commonplace. South Korea and others have been
compelled to ramp up their defensive and offensive
capabilities to counter this.
Iran is, of course, progressing ever closer to nuclear
power status. Its rapprochement with key actors like
Saudi Arabia could act as a brake and the reduction
in tensions is welcome, yet who is convinced this will
last?
New technologies also pose a threat. Could cyber
weapons be deployed to take down an entire state
infrastructure? How will artificial intelligence impact
military doctrines and decision-making? Will
hypersonic missiles render defensive systems obsolete?
What about space weapons?
Major powers are wary of any alterations to the
balance of power and threat that could weaken their
response capabilities. Mutual assured destruction, the
doctrine credited with staving off nuclear conflict
during the Cold War, is dependent on the confidence
of all nuclear-armed parties in their second-strike
options. Strategic stability is dependent on all sides
knowing there is no benefit to a first-strike option.
One would hope that increased tensions will energize
a renewed commitment to arms control mechanisms.
However, the opposite is happening, as the global
architecture is crumbling away. In the European
theater, the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in
Europe, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
and the Treaty on Open Skies have all collapsed, with
European powers and the US blaming Russian
violations.
Most of these agreements were, in any event, not
applicable to a non-bipolar world. We are now closer
to a tripolar setup. Russia and the US may no longer
be prepared to limit their arsenals to 5,000 to 6,000
weapons. China is no longer willing to have a minimal
deterrent of a few hundred nuclear weapons, as in the
past. The US believes China will possess about 1,500
warheads by 2035, but at what point will Beijing
decide it has enough? Some in the US believe that the
only response should be that America has to maintain
parity in terms of the number of warheads with China
and Russia combined.
Proliferation also poses a danger in that it could
facilitate nonstate actors in acquiring ever more
powerful weapons. One of the fears following the
chemical weapons attack in Douma was that
extremists would be successful in their zealous quest
to steal such weapons from the Syrian regime’s
arsenal. Who knows if instability in Pakistan or
perhaps in North Korea could risk materials, even
weapons, falling into other hands?
None of this is helped by the inertia at the UN
Security Council. In theory, the major powers all agree
that arms control matters, but they have wildly
diverging positions on what this means. The Ukraine
crisis has shredded any sense of shared decision-
making in the global interest. The US and China are
going through the motions of dialing down the
temperature with mixed success. Confidence-building
measures are a minimum requirement.
But diplomacy is the most secure, cost-effective and
reliable exit from this dangerous escalation of tensions.
At a time when the planet requires huge investments
to tackle climate change, environmental damage and
the impact of myriad conflicts, the last thing billions
of citizens want to see is trillions splurged on
unnecessary doomsday weapons nobody ever wants to
see deployed. Medium-sized, non-nuclear powers may
be the parties that can corral the big boys to bring
their dangerous toys to the table and engage in the
grown-up talks we all need. (Author: CHRIS DOYLE.
Published in Arab News on September 4, 2023)
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As the legal battle over IIOJK continues
While hearing petitions against Jammu & Kashmir
Reorganization Act, the Indian Supreme Court asked
state authorities to respond if there was a timeline to
convert the occupied Kashmir from a union territory
to a state. Earlier, the top court had admitted
petitions challenging the revocation of articles 370
and 35-A that granted special status to the occupied
territory. Thus continues what is going to be a long
legal battle to take the case of Indian Illegally
Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IIOJK) to its logical
conclusion.
A five-judge bench that has been hearing the petitions
for two weeks observed on August 30 that the
reorganization of the state was not “one of a kind” as
was pointed out by Solicitor General Tushar Mehta.
That bench, headed by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud
and including Justices Sanjay Kishan Kaul, Sanjiv
Khanna, BR Gavai and Surya Kant, noted that the
case of J&K bifurcation is no different from those of
other Indian states that have experienced the same.
The Chief Justice disagreed with the Solicitor General
who argued that the case of J&K is different because
the region shares border with two countries, and
mentioned that Punjab and Northeast also share
borders with foreign countries and can be equated
with J&K. Yet, the Chief Justice in the August 30
hearing took note of how matters of national security
may be critical in case of J&K.
The crisis that plunged the Indo-Pak relations into
another phase of degeneration was triggered on
August 5, 2019 when the Indian parliament ended the
special status of J&K and declared it — as well as
Ladakh — union territories to be governed directly by
New Delhi. After getting approval from the parliament
by a two-thirds majority, the reorganization bill was
signed by the president to become part of the Indian
constitution. Illegality was reflected in that bill
because according to article 370 of the Indian
constitution any change in the status of J&K had to
be approved by the Constituent Assembly of the state
which was non-functional at that time.
The Solicitor General tried to sidetrack the ground
realities in J&K while giving arguments before the
five-member bench by stating, “If Gujarat, or Madhya
Pradesh, was to be bifurcated, the parameters would
be different. But when [the same has to happen to]
Jammu and Kashmir; considering its strategic
importance, border state, history of terrorism, history
of infiltration, history of outside influence, there would
be some considerations. We share borders with at
least four countries, all of which may not be friendly
— to put it mildly.”
The Solicitor General’s strange logic was contested by
the Chief Justice, arguing that “India has many states
that share border with neighbouring countries, and
Jammu and Kashmir is no exception.” Citing the
“complex” situation of J&K in terms of national
security, the Solicitor General said, “The history also
shows how the situation in Kashmir is developing…
the deaths of civilians, the deaths of security forces,
the number of attacks, stone-pelting, the hartals,
paralyzing schools, hospitals, banks, businesses and
everything. All of these are policy considerations.
Whenever a state reorganization takes place, not only
are their policy considerations as to why but also a
blue print as to what the Center would do after the
state is reorganized. How to bring youth in
mainstream? How to employ, float schemes? There are
several considerations. We will have to start with
democratic local self-governance so people participate
in the internal institutions for their own good.”
It appears that the legal battle in the Indian Supreme
Court challenging the Jammu & Kashmir
Reorganization Act will continue but the bench is not
giving a free hand to the state arguing that the misuse
of authority and power by New Delhi in union
territories of Ladakh and J&K along with the absence
of democratic process tend to question the legitimacy
of the entire process that ended the special status of
J&K on August 5, 2019.
India’s top court is the last hope for those who are
determined not to accept the Jammu & Kashmir
Reorganization Act and want the country’s highest
legal organ to give a fair judgment which can restore
the special status of the Muslim-majority territory. To
what extent the Indian Supreme Court will give a
judgment adhering to the supremacy of law remains
to be seen. While the Solicitor General stated before
the Supreme Court that the union territory status of
J&K was not permanent, he failed to mention how
much time the Center will take to restore the J&K’s
electoral status which has been suspended for many
years. While a roadmap for the restoration of electoral
democracy in J&K is sought by the five-member
bench, the Indian state has so far given no time
framework.
The ongoing legal battle needs to be examined from
two angles.
First, legally, technically and morally, there is
justification of absorbing J&K into the Indian state by
ending the special status granted to it under the
Indian constitution. When there was no Constituent
Assembly in Srinagar at the time the J&K
Reorganization Act was passed, how can that act be
deemed legal and constitutional? According to the law,
without the approval of the Constituent Assembly of
J&K, article 370 cannot be revoked. This legal point
has been focused by the petitioners challenging the
August 5, 2019 act. New Delhi can give all sorts of
reasons — ranging from threats to national security,
terrorism and violence — to justify the imposition of
the Center’s rule in Srinagar but cannot win the legal
battle if decided on merit.
Second, in view of its illegal stance on J&K, the Modi
regime will attempt a Pulwama-type, false-flag
operation and put the blame on Pakistan in order to
make a case before Supreme Court that it needs more
time to restore the democratic process in J&K. A
Pulwama-type operation would also help the BJP in
the May 2024 general elections.
The Modi regime after holding G-20 tourism
conference Srinagar in May this year is now planning
to hold Miss World contest in J&K on December 8 so
as to give the impression to the world that all is well in
the disputed region. Can India get away with its illegal
act of August 5, 2019 by holding such events? (Author:
Dr Moonis Ahmar. Published in The Express Tribune on
September 5, 2023)
Historical injustices in Kashmir
Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General (SG) of the
United Nations tweeted on August 23, 2023, ‘All
human beings are born free and equal in dignity and
rights. As we mark the 75th anniversary of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights, our worst
enemy is complacency. We must continue to make
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human rights real in the lives of people everywhere.’
Honorable Antonio Guterres, I had written to you on
January 7, 2017, upon assuming the office of the
Secretary General that the unanimity of the Security
Council is indicative of their wisdom in believing that
you are an ideal candidate with the character, vision
and talent to face the growing challenges in an ever-
expanding global community. Six years later, I still
believe that you are the right person to pave the way
to settle the complicated international conflicts like
Kashmir. It is often suggested by so-called experts of
South Asia that if people had jobs, there wouldn’t be
such turmoil and rebellion in the streets. But when
the human rights of Kashmiris are so consistently
violated that such suffering becomes the norm, world
powers seem to forget that the pain of losing one’s son
to a bullet or having the honor of one’s mother or
sister violated cannot be replaced with a job at an
electronics factory as suggested by Amit Shah, Interior
Minister of India. The cry for self-determination has
become deep and immersed in a bitterness that has
no substitute.
It is worth noting that Kashmiris’ claim to self-
determination is exceptionally strong even without the
UN’s recognition. Kashmir has been historically
independent, except in the anarchical conditions of
late 18th and the first half of 19th centuries. And also,
the territory of Kashmir is larger in size than 121
independent countries and bigger in number than 117
nations of the world. The nation of Kashmir still
remembers when Narendra Modi abrogated Article
370 & 35 A on August 5, 2019, his aim was not the
resolve the issue but to dissolve it? Then on August 8,
2019, you gave hope to 23 million Kashmiris by
articulating the principled position of the United
Nations that Kashmir issue has to be resolved under
UN Charter and applicable UN Security Council
resolutions. That signifies that the claim that Kashmir
is an integral part of India does not stand. Kashmir
has an international dimension that deserves the
attention of the U.N. and the global community.
It is important to observe that when we talk about the
international dimension of Kashmir, it is because it
has the sanctity of the UN Charter and UN Security
Council resolutions and has become a big hurdle or
obstacle in the growth and stability of both India and
Pakistan. The unresolved conflict over Kashmir
threatens the international peace and security of the
world. It is far past time for the UN to take forceful
action in order to restore peace to Kashmir. Perhaps
Pakistan amidst a polycrisis
The caretaker government has made a sensible
decision to link any possible relief in electricity bills to
the consent of the IMF in order not to jeopardize the
ongoing standby agreement.
Pakistan needs to stay under the IMF umbrella for at
least the next few years, not only to overcome its
chronic balance-of-payments challenges (dollar
shortage) and take much-needed policy and structural
reforms under IMF scrutiny but also to regain the
trust of local and international investors. This trust is
crucial to ensure both a steady flow of dollars and
prevent their hoarding or outflow. Without overcoming
the trust deficit, the value of the rupee will remain
under pressure.
As I write this piece, the dollar is trading at Rs305.50
in the interbank market, Rs330 in the open market,
and Rs345-355 in the hawala market. Despite
appreciating by Rs17 against the rupee in the last 13
invoking Article 99 ought to be recognised as an
option to consider in dealing with this problem,
because nothing else to date has worked.
Narender Modi and Dr. Jaishankar Ji know it well
that the United Nations resolutions can never become
outdated or obsolete or overtaken by events or
changed circumstances. Mere passage of time or the
flight from realities cannot alter the fact that these
resolutions remain unimplemented until today. The
passage of time cannot invalidate an enduring and
irreplaceable principle–the right of self-determination
of the people of Kashmir. If passage of time were
allowed to extinguish solemn international agreements,
then the United Nations Charter should suffer the
same fate as the resolutions on Kashmir. If non-
implementation were to render an agreement defunct,
then the Geneva Convention in twenty-first century in
many countries is in no better state than these
resolutions.
It is high time that we try to make a constructive
departure. The best point for doing so is to restore the
focus where it originally belonged and where it still
rests logically: the rights and interests of the people of
Kashmir itself. What should be the procedure for
putting the dispute on the road to a settlement? The
better way would be to ask the Secretary General of
the UN, with the concurrence of the Security Council,
to engage himself, directly or through a representative
of high international standing, in a sustained effort of
facilitation which should ensure that the position of
the people of Kashmir is fully taken into account and
aim at a settlement within a reasonable time-frame,
providing for a transitional period, if necessary, for a
calming effect. There cannot be a better agency than
the Secretary General of the United Nations himself to
mediate or facilitate between the parties concerned.
Secretary General has no ambition to assert
dominance while as great powers do. Mediation by the
Secretary General would be free from the jealousies
and the ambitions that characterise individual
initiative. The Secretary General will have to remain
under no obligation to please any particular power or
particular set of powers or groups. Yes, there will be
resistance from India but if India is impressed with
what she would gain by a just settlement of the
Kashmir dispute, her negativity may not be
insurmountable. (Author: Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai.
Published in The Nation on August 29, 2023)
days, the interbank rate of the dollar is still far behind
the open market rate, breaching the difference
threshold that Pakistan committed with the IMF.
On the other hand, high demand for imports, negative
market sentiments, hoarding, smuggling of
greenbacks to Afghanistan, and uncertainty on
election dates are pushing up the price of dollar
against rupee in the open market. In fact, the
difference between the hawala and interbank rates, as
well as open market and interbank rates, has once
again widened. This makes it unappealing for
remitters to send their remittances through official
banking channels.
Wonder why I am discussing the exchange rate in a
piece on energy prices? Please keep in mind that the
depreciation of the rupee has serious repercussions
for the electricity sector. Assuming that all other
factors, including the international oil, coal and gas
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prices, remain unchanged, the current rupee
weakening would result in higher electricity bills after
two months.
This is due to two reasons: a higher fuel import bill
(reflected as fuel price adjustment every two months),
and higher capacity payment charges (which are
denominated in dollars) that the government is bound
to pay to electricity generation companies even if it
does not buy a single unit of electricity from them.
Politically motivated delays in recovering the cost of
generation of electricity during the last 16 years
resulted in accumulation of energy circular debt (ECD),
which, along with transmission and distribution
losses and cross-subsidies on tariff, piled up to Rs2.6
trillion by June 2023. For comparison, the ECD is one
and a half times higher than Pakistan’s current year’s
defense budget. An attempt to contain ECD in FY24 at
the Rs2.6 trillion level means full recovery of all costs
from consumers during the current financial year. The
result was exceptionally high electricity bills in August,
which will further inflate as the rupee depreciates
further.
We should also remember that it is not only the fuel
and transmission-distribution costs that are pinching
the consumers. A major chunk of our electricity bills
also consists of taxes and surcharges on those taxes,
which every consumer, regardless of his/her income
(and in some cases electricity consumption level), has
to pay to meet the government’s growing revenue
requirement.
Before discussing why the government uses electricity
bills for the generation of revenue, let us continue
with the impact of the depreciated rupee.
The depreciated rupee also increases the domestic
prices of petrol and diesel. The current rise in fuel
prices will result in another round of inflation and
likely another round of public discontent.
The textbook way of curbing inflation is to increase
the interest rate. However, high interest rates not only
adversely affect businesses and export
competitiveness but also increase the government's
domestic debt servicing cost, requiring additional
revenue. Due to chronic failure to generate revenue
through direct taxation, the government ends up
relying on indirect taxation. Electricity bills are one
such tool for collecting indirect taxes and that is why
successive governments are tempted to keep adding
taxes to them.
Amidst this vicious cycle where one economic problem
leads to another, the pressure on caretakers will
mount to provide relief, especially on energy costs.
However, in the current fiscal framework, they have
no cushion to provide such relief. To address the
growing discomfort among consumers, the caretaker
government should try to redesign the fiscal
framework. It needs to enhance revenue mobilization
and reduce its expenditure. Additional revenue can be
mobilized by bringing the ‘taxable untouchables’, both
elite individuals and pampered sectors of the economy,
into the tax net. Everyone knows who they are and
why – due to different political-economy
considerations, successive governments failed to tax
them.
On expenditure reduction: besides many symbolic
austerity measures, one of the ways to reduce
expenditures is to privatize the loss-making public-
sector enterprises (including electricity distribution
companies). The caretaker government must kickstart
the process of privatization of such units. However,
the time is too short for them to successfully complete
any privatization deal. The quickest way to reduce
expenditures is to slash ‘politically motivated’ brick-
and-mortar projects from federal and provincial
development plans. If the amount spent on proposed
relief in the energy sector is offset by a reduction in
PSDP, then the IMF may not object.
A cushion for such relief can also be created by
reducing the unit cost of electricity by reducing the
chronic inefficiencies, power theft, and misuse of
entitlements in the power system.
To contain the depreciation of the rupee, the
government would have to improve the inflow of
dollars. The two major sources of dollar inflow,
exports and remittances, are declining and must be
improved. However, in the short run, caretakers
should focus on securing some of the $9 billion
Geneva pledges for the 2022 floods. Those pledges
could not be materialized during the last fiscal year as
the IMF’s support for Pakistan remained suspended in
that period.
Now that Pakistan is back in the Fund’s programme,
access to those pledges depends on the preparation of
tangible and concrete projects for flood rehabilitation
and disaster preparedness. The best way to do it is
through a cabinet committee and inter-ministerial
coordination mechanism to prepare some convincing
projects for the Asian Development Bank, World Bank,
and Islamic Development Bank.
I can foresee some high-level visitors coming to
Pakistan in mid-September before or after the G-20
meeting in Delhi. Such visits would help boost the
market’s sentiments. However, a strong follow-up is
required to capitalize upon the bilateral consensus
achieved during such visits. Clarity on the expected
length of the present caretaker setup and the general
elections’ timeline is a prerequisite for such follow-up.
In the meantime, the caretakers should act swiftly
and decisively to break the vicious cycle of economic
and energy crises and pave the way for sustainable
recovery. (Author: Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri. Published in
The News International on September 3, 2023)
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RESURGENCE OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH AS CHALLENGES ESCALATE
After World War II, as the global economic and
political order shifted toward a bipolar world, Asian
and African nations, which had gained independence
due to the global and regional repercussions of the
war, chose not to align with either of the two poles.
They united in Bandung, Indonesia, on April 18-24,
1955, marking a significant moment when they
emphasized the principles of neutrality and non-
alignment to fortify their newfound independence. It is
no surprise that Indonesia hosted this historic
meeting. Subsequently, the Non-Aligned Movement
officially came into existence in Belgrade in 1961, with
leadership from Yugoslavia, India and Egypt. In the
same year, the Atlantic alliance launched the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). Today, it is equally
unsurprising that Brazil, Russia, India, China and
later South Africa came together to form BRICS (Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa). Given this
historical context, the addition of Egypt, Argentina,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran
and Ethiopia as BRICS members starting from Jan. 1,
2024, should not come as a shock. In the early 1990s,
following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of
the Soviet Union, the world transitioned into a
unipolar structure, which may have led to a perceived
weakening of the significance of the Non-Aligned
Movement. However, the existence of the "Global
South" remained as valid as the "Global North." Even
though the popularity of the Non-Aligned Movement
waned, the reality of the Global South continued to be
a prominent feature on the global stage.
FADE OF BIG HOPES
The 21st century commenced with high hopes. The
issues of combatting poverty and bridging the
disparities in living standards among continents and
nations, integral to the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), sparked excitement. However, as the
PRESIDENT XI’S VISION FOR CHINA-AFRICA COOPERATION
THE XV BRICS Summit, held in Johannesburg on 22-
24 August was not just a gathering of nations; it was
a confluence of visions aimed at reshaping global
cooperation and development. One of the notable
aspects of this summit was the welcoming of new
members into the BRICS fold. The Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the United Arab
Emirates, Argentina, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and
Ethiopia, among others, joined the existing members,
underscoring the global significance of the BRICS
platform. The expansion was not just a numerical
increase but a strategic step towards creating a more
comprehensive and representative alliance.
Central to this summit was Chinese President Xi
Jinping’s keynote speech during the China-Africa
Leaders’ Dialogue. His speech, titled “Joining Hands
to Advance Modernization and Create a Great Future
for China and Africa,” encapsulated his vision for
stronger China-Africa cooperation and its potential
impact on global development. Africa, often referred to
as the “hopeful continent” in the 21st century, has
seen remarkable progress in the past decades.
President Xi acknowledged this transformation,
praising African countries’ strides towards unity,
integration and independence. With the Organization
of African Unity marking its 60th anniversary, this
moment serves as a testament to the continent’s
resilience and progress.
China’s Africa policy, encapsulated in the principles of
sincerity, real results, amity and good faith, has been
first 15 years of the new century unfolded and global
challenges intensified, problems such as hunger and
poverty not only failed to see substantial
improvements but deepened in certain regions.
Moreover, critical issues like migration and security
were impacted by the Global North's arrogance and its
limited capacity to address these challenges, resulting
in their escalation from regional concerns to global
crises. Consequently, countries representing the
Global South have grown increasingly concerned and
frustrated with the inadequacy of proposed solutions
to the world's pressing issues, prompting them to
establish new multilateral platforms.
Over the past decade, marked by painful
developments and fervent debates on the
restructuring of the international economic and
political order in favor of the Global South, we have
witnessed a resurgence in their influence. The flaws in
projects, solution proposals and, even more troubling,
the financing methods presented for the United
Nations' 17 SDGs in Africa – the rising continent of
the 21st century – have placed the Global North in a
challenging position, given their perceived
underestimation of these problems. It is, therefore, not
surprising that the Global South has chosen to take
the lead.
In this context, there is an urgent need for enhanced
dialogue and communication between the Global
South and the Global North. A country like Türkiye,
which has consistently demonstrated its sincerity,
realism, impartiality, fairness and honest approach,
along with its reputation and credibility in diplomatic
endeavors, is more critical than ever in fostering
cooperation and understanding between these two
global actors. (Author: Kerem Alkin. Published in
Daily Sabah on September 9, 2023)
a driving force behind the cooperation between the
two regions. This policy, advocated by President Xi a
decade ago during his first foreign visit to Africa, has
laid the foundation for a partnership that has
weathered global challenges, including the ongoing
COVID-19 pandemic. The spirit of solidarity and
cooperation that underpins China-Africa relations has
elevated the partnership to new heights, setting the
stage for the realization of a high-level China-Africa
community with a shared future.
President Xi’s speech identified three key themes that
would guide China-Africa cooperation and contribute
to global development: (i) Advancing a Just and
Equitable International Order: President Xi’s call for
the unity of developing nations against vestiges of
colonialism and hegemonism resonates strongly in an
era where a multipolar world order is emerging. This
united stance fosters a world characterized by justice,
fairness and respect for national sovereignty. (ii)
Safeguarding Global Peace and Security: The shared
commitment of China and Africa to resolve differences
through dialogue and cooperation reflects the broader
international need for comprehensive security models.
The African aspiration to silence the guns aligns with
China’s approach of common, comprehensive,
cooperative and sustainable security, contributing to
global stability. (iii) Building an Open and Inclusive
World Economy: President Xi’s emphasis on openness
and cooperation is a call for collective action to
overcome the challenges of isolationism and
protectionism. By advocating for shared benefits and
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the inclusion of developing countries in the global
economy, China seeks to drive economic growth that
is sustainable and mutually beneficial.
President Xi’s vision for China-Africa cooperation does
not exist in isolation but is deeply interwoven with
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which has
achieved remarkable success over the past decade.
The BRI, launched in 2013, is a testament to China’s
commitment to global development through enhanced
connectivity, trade and infrastructure projects. Its
expansion into Africa, with projects spanning
transportation, energy and telecommunications
sectors, has contributed significantly to the
continent’s modernization and development agenda.
President Xi’s emphasis on cooperation mechanisms,
such as Belt and Road cooperation and the Forum on
China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), further
underscores the symbiotic relationship between BRI
and the shared vision of China-Africa cooperation.
The success of the BRI is a testament to China’s
ability to foster inclusive and mutually beneficial
partnerships across regions. As President Xi aptly
noted, “What we need is to remove barriers rather
than erect walls, open up rather than close off.” This
principle aligns perfectly with the BRI’s focus on
connectivity and cooperation that transcends
geographical boundaries and promotes shared
prosperity.
President Xi’s vision also extends to three specific
plans aimed at nurturing Africa’s growth: (a) Initiative
on Supporting Africa’s Industrialization: China will
enhance its resources for cooperation with Africa,
particularly in growing its manufacturing sector and
realizing industrialization. This initiative, aligned with
the goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area,
can elevate Africa’s economic diversification. (b) Plan
PAKISTAN’S CLIMATE JOURNEY IN 16 MONTHS
A small anecdote sums up the cognitive confusion and
lack of social or political investment about the
environment and climate change in high places in
Pakistan. When I took over the Federal Ministry of
Climate Change and Environmental Coordination in
April 2022, it was called just the Federal Ministry of
Climate Change.
The environment addendum was included later at my
request to the cabinet, because the ministry was the
notified entity for all international environmental,
biodiversity and climate change treaties and
conventions, as well as the lead department for the
Wildlife Board managing the Margalla Hills National
Park. When I walked into its lobby I noticed that the
insignia at the door said mosamiat, which actually
translates as ‘weather’ in English. After weeks of
intensive consultations, it was agreed that in Urdu it
would now say mahauliat which was more appropriate.
From then onwards it was 16 months of crisis
management, while we built on new layers of
institutional roadmaps. Quite apart from changing its
name to a more befitting one that matched the scope
of its work, in April we found ourselves confronted
with a cascading heatwave all over the country.
Climate stress had become the new normal. By June,
Pakistan had recorded for the third year running
temperatures at 53.6 C in parts of Sindh. We were, for
yet another year, the hottest place on the planet.
Along with that, our forests in three provinces had
ignited into a smoky patchwork of stubborn forest
wildfires, while glacial lake outburst floods had
for China Supporting Africa’s Agricultural
Modernization: Through increased agricultural
investment, technological collaboration and capacity-
building, China aims to contribute to the
transformation and upgrading of Africa’s agricultural
sector. This initiative has the potential to bolster food
security and economic sustainability across the
continent. (c) Plan for China-Africa Cooperation on
Talent Development: By offering training, technical
assistance and educational exchange programs, China
aims to bolster Africa’s human resource capacity and
support its innovation and education sectors.
President Xi’s proposal to enhance the voice of African
countries in multilateral financial institutions and
advocate for the African Union’s full membership in
the G20 reflects China’s commitment to empowering
Africa on the global stage. To encapsulate, the XV
BRICS Summit not only marked the expansion of a
geopolitical alliance but also served as the nexus for
forging shared values and aspirations. President Xi’s
visionary discourse, articulated during his keynote
address, lays down the architectural framework for
the synergy between China and Africa, resonating
with worldwide imperatives of a just international
order, global tranquillity, security and all-
encompassing economic advancement. With the
resounding accomplishments of the Belt and Road
Initiative forming the backdrop, President Xi’s
impassioned plea for unity, collaboration and
reciprocal prosperity holds the key to a forthcoming
epoch defined by interwoven connections, cooperative
ventures and prosperity that transcends boundaries.
As China and Africa march in harmonious stride, they
illuminate an extraordinary paradigm of international
partnerships underscored by mutual esteem, empathy
and the shared pursuit of collective advancement.
(Author: Qaiser Nawab. Published in Pak Observer on
September 3, 2023)
erupted in the north of the country. We had gone
straight into summer from winter, which for a city like
Islamabad is simply not the norm. Climate change has
started swallowing entire seasons. Much more was
amiss at the global warming levels than we had been
given to understand.
In the entire 16 months of government, this small
ministry redefined both itself and the nature of the
climate challenge the country was coping with. It still
has a long way to go.
Given that our scope was limited to the federal
government, designed to deal with international
treaties and covenants which require national
frameworks and focal points, the challenges were
onerous. The implementers were the provinces, except
in ICT, yet we were needed to create international
instruments and respond to multilateral conventions,
partners and climate governance systems that
recognized only national frameworks. We organised a
Task Force on Heatwaves with all the provinces on
board, as well as a similar one on forest fires. The first
two were convened at PM House under my
chairmanship, and we found that all provinces
responded really well to our guidance and capacity-
building. We shared guidelines issued by both task
forces on how to cope with both challenges in different
terrain. To this day, these guidelines are used to save
lives.
The rapid desertification of the delta region was
another crucial challenge facing a country with
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looming water scarcity by 2025. The Ministry of Water
Resources was engaged to start a national
conversation on water conservation, while we
accelerated our work with WWF on the stagnating
Recharge Pakistan project for restoring the health of
our wetlands in each province. By July 2023, the
Green Climate Fund (GCF) had agreed to convert our
loan for this project to a grant of $77 million, with the
support of donors. Much more needed to be done.
At the same time, we completed and launched the 25-
part Living Indus Initiative along with the support of
the UNEP and other UN agencies, at both the
international and national levels, completing in record
time all consultations with the provinces. Going
forward, the Living Indus is now ready to turn into a
functional organic, programmatic template for a
multi-level intervention to save the great river on
which 80 per cent of Pakistan is dependent. As it
stands, the Indus is now the fourth most polluted
river in the world. It is also Pakistan’s lifeline, which is
why it needs attention. I hope the next government
can spur the provinces to projectize the priorities we
identified for financing and development.
In the north of Pakistan the summer of 2022 proved
to be equally harsh, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan,
where the glacial lake outburst floods afflicted
vulnerable communities in more than 75 crises. We
managed to save lives with our early warning systems
via the GLOF programmes we were running there with
UNDP. This programme was upscaled to its second
stage as one of the most successful low-cost
community-based programmes in a terrain which
hosted the highest number of glaciers outside the
polar region. We were not able to slow down the
heating that caused glacial melt, nor decelerate the
outburst floods that increased by 300 per cent, but we
were able to build resilience for it.
The real challenge proved to be coping with the great
mega-flood of 2022, that put Pakistan on the map for
impacting 33 million people, breaking all records for
rain as it inundated one-third of the country, most
particularly in the south. Sindh and Balochistan
became the hub of the NDMA’s disaster relief efforts,
with rescue itself running into weeks. The country’s
entire public and private philanthropic infrastructure
was on maximum overstretch on the ground, and
simultaneous crises soaked up coordinated efforts of
many ministries including this one, the PM, the FM,
the military and all international agencies. There were
just too many people to manage, yet we pulled
together in a prolonged and remarkable effort of
rescue, relief, rehabilitation and rebuilding.
Shortly after, we had to gear up for COP 27. For the
first time in the history of Pakistan the National
Council on Climate Change was convened under the
leadership of the PM. There, we presented and
articulated Pakistan’s case for climate justice as a
fractional emitter of greenhouse gases, while being
clearly in the frontline of climate hotspots globally. We
fought hard for the creation of a Loss and Damage
Fund, which we succeeded in creating at Sharm el
Shaikh, with the FM making sure Loss & Damage was
put on the agenda of the conference as chair of G77
plus China. For 18 days, we tirelessly pushed the case
for Loss and Damage both at our pavilion and at
UNFCCC forums, for the entire Global South. The UN
SG spoke at Pakistan’s pavilion for the first time,
where the PM capped off his visit with a big push for
climate justice, just as he had done at the UN in
September. Pakistan’s country pavilion and climate
branding as a leader became the place to campaign for
climate justice, with the slogan, “what goes on in
Pakistan will not stay in Pakistan”, resonating
worldwide as a case for revamped multilateralism as a
real solution.
While we were trying to work on building back better,
assessments told us that rehabilitating millions would
cost $16 billion. All available funds had been
repurposed for relief and for immediate cash transfers
to those in the frontline of the human tragedy.
Climate and early warning funds were the first to go.
For a country drowning in both debt and floods, the
4RF plan was developed by the Planning Ministry,
with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and three other
ministries putting in late nights, including Climate
Change as we planned and pushed for it at Geneva,
where the UN hosted a Climate Resilient Pakistan
conference. As we reminded international audiences
via powerful videos that captured a slice of the
devastation, 33 million people impacted was the size
of three medium-sized European countries. Around $9
billion plus were pledged, double the estimate of what
we had expected, but experience told us pledges are
slow to materialize. The World Bank had already
launched its Country and Climate Development
Report at COP 27 with us, targeting $348 billion as
the financing needed for Pakistan to keep its head
above water until 2030.
Climate finance and technical capacity became a real
chokehold on rebuilding with resilience, but we also
learnt that systemic vulnerability needed to be the
lens we looked at all sustainable development from
now on. Women and children, and the indigent were
impacted disproportionately during the crisis, and all
plans to adapt or build resilience needed to absorb
that field lesson learnt from the flood of 2022. The
Climate Ministry launched and drew on the Climate
Gender Policy we had completed with the support of
IUCN, and pushed hard to mainstream women and
vulnerability in all planning at the department.
As Pakistan continued reeling from the exogenous
shock of accelerated climate impacts, it also became
clear to many of us that global warming was not
changing course. The year 2030 marked the
dangerous as well as the decisive decade.
Pakistan was clearly located in an acute arc of
vulnerability, with GHG emissions reaching record
levels translating into unprecedented land and sea
temperatures crossing the 1.5 C threshold set in Paris.
Given that emissions were not going down globally, as
committed at Paris in 2015, but quite the opposite,
even a rough national stocktake suggested we shift
gears. Mitigation plans for switching to renewable
energy were important, as much for our own energy
independence and reduction of imports but also for
meeting our NDC commitments. Between the Ukraine
war, which interrupted critical energy and food supply
chains, and extreme climate emergencies the world
over, it also became clear that an axial shift was
needed to focus key resources on resilience.
Pakistan urgently needed a National Adaptation Plan,
not to mention the governance tools needed to execute
it at provincial and local levels. Why? Because if we
cannot do anything about the era of ‘global boiling’ as
the UNSG called it after July of 2023, we can at least
do all we can to be better prepared. This means a
whole-of-country shift in inclusive, local-centric
development planning, budgeting, building and
conserving, where tools are fit-for-purpose, not one-
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size-fits-all. It means a strategic shift in how we think
of urban growth and rural renewal, and especially
how we manage the critical water-agri sector in
climate governance models. It means far more
coordinated, smarter disaster management and early
risk warning investments. It means changing how we
manage our hydromet sector, treat waste and sewage,
manage our municipal services, mitigate for impacts
on public health, women, labour and youth cohorts,
invest in drought-resistant crops, and enlarge green
spaces and urban forests within cities, not run
bulldozers over every empty space.
NAPs should, like country projections, be home-grown.
After six months of provincial consultations and many
drafts later, I requested a development writer at the
World Bank to help structure our knowledge
document and pull it together by July 20, 2023. With
a core team of six, we worked literally round the clock,
often around my dining table on weekends, to get it
done. It was passed by cabinet a week later. Its
success depends entirely on the provinces, as they are
the lead implementing departments. Our job was to
work with key line ministries, provinces, Gilgit-
Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and give
them this document as a roadmap, which many
developing countries have filed at the UNFCCC.
Provinces can actually make their own adaptation
plans out of this to make a real shift in adapting to an
era of global burn.
While we were doing all this, we knew that at the
same time Pakistan also needed a National Clean Air
Policy. Lahore was choking on its smog every winter.
Children were being held back from schools in
November because the air was too toxic to breathe.
Senior citizens were at risk. The NCAP identified key
priority areas for national intervention and provincial
action immediately for reducing the particulate matter
and other toxins that are increasing the pollution
levels of our cities. A Pakistan Cooling Action Plan has
also been developed to reduce emissions from cooling
products such as refrigerators and air conditioners.
Provincial consultations are underway to identify
targets and minimum energy performance standards.
Devolution dictates that each province act according
to its own laws, so we hope air quality becomes a
priority, both for measurement and for action.
For stopping the dumping of hazardous and other
waste in our country and coastline, we presented and
passed via cabinet a National Hazardous Waste
Management Policy. Countries that had dumped over
a 150 containers of mixed waste in our waters a few
years ago can no longer do that without penalties
invoked in coastal EPAs, and imports of waste for
recycling and industrial purposes have to be certified
by the provincial EPAs for genuine use, else we deny
them the NOCs at the federal level. In a similar vein,
the reduction of single-use plastics from markets has
begun with the public sector, which for ICT means the
federal government, extending then to prohibitions on
plastic items which under extended user
responsibility protocols, manufacturers have agreed to
stop in ICT from August 1, 2023.
The battle against plastics is a long one, but the
journey has to begin and go beyond polythene bags.
Citizens need to be stakeholders, as no one can police
climate change at the door-to-door level, but
regulations lay a foundation. Our Urban Policy
Framework still needs inputs from the provinces, as
do many other plans, like the EV policy parked for
incentive changes in the Finance Ministry.
The National REDD+ strategy, the upscaling of the
Green Pakistan program had started earlier, like the
finished NCCP document. I did not believe in tearing
up any policy on the basis of partisan politics. The
enhancement of forests, especially given the need to
prevent deforestation, is also on the way. Reduction in
emissions is a part of the large carbon sequestration
projects already prioritized in our delta mangroves,
where Sindh has taken a global lead in enhancing
mangrove cover by 300 per cent from the 1990s. At
the federal level, a comprehensive carbon trade
framework is on the anvil, premised on a carbon
registry being developed with support from the World
Bank. Energy transition plans remain central to
ambitious mitigation efforts, especially with a shift
towards renewables, but financing remains a barrier
to much of the change.
Lastly, but very importantly, we moved the Islamabad
Nature Conservation and Wildlife Management bill
through both houses of parliament to unanimous
approval, so that boundaries to the green area called
the Margalla Hills Wildlife Park are not further
encroached, and the vital connection between
biodiversity, environmental regeneration and climate
change is reified and enhanced. Cities that leave their
green areas to the mercy of developers are not cities of
the future, and Islamabad deserves to keep its lungs
We also needed to create new rules for animal
sanctuaries, define what constituted wildlife, and how
animals cannot be treated like circus creatures to be
paraded, caged, abused for human entertainment
anymore. Zoos are increasingly frowned upon as
places of unnatural habitat for many species, and we
have many examples of exotic and non-indigenous
species suffering cruel and indifferent treatment at the
hands of local zoos, so all such facilities in Islamabad
are now only reserved for the rehabilitation of animals
found in illegal captivity for onward sanctuary.
We called a meeting of all provinces to advise, not
direct, (as we cannot do that) them on how to revamp
their own zoos according to more humane laws,
allowing animals to live in their own ecosystem where
they maintain nature’s balance better than humans.
Zoning will help all of us stay in our own allocated
habitats. Let us hope some of this thinking and
planning devolves down to the local levels of Pakistan.
Much of what we did in 16 months is just a
framework for intense time and resource investment
planning for the next government. Pakistan needs to
take the triple planetary crisis as seriously as a
national security crisis.
Securing Pakistan’s water: Every summer, Pakistan
braces for flooding as the monsoon season and
growing summer heatwaves cascade to trigger a series
of flood emergencies all over the country. This year too,
thousands of people and livestock went into crisis and
evacuation as the River Sutlej rose to high flood,
impacting several regions of the Punjab.
At the same time, and seemingly counterintuitively,
but also because of unchecked population growth, we
are also primed to be water-scarce by 2025. The latest
UN report, ‘Global Water Security 2023’, places
Pakistan in the critically-insecure category.
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The hydrological base of Pakistan is the River Indus,
which sustains 90 per cent of food production, and
clusters the world’s largest irrigation man-made
systems in the world in the plains of the Punjab.
Although monsoons add to the water in the system,
data projections suggest that the Indus River is
predominantly glacial fed, relying on them almost 60-
70 per cent for freshwater availability.
Data is always thin on the ground but a report by the
International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD) suggests that the Indus River
system may be the most impacted by climate change,
pollution, and the associated loss of permafrost. With
high percentages of our water source linked to
transboundary rivers, rising in the mountains at the
confluence of the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the
Hindukush ranges, risks to water security and
demand at home will have to be managed. A 2022
UNEP report points to dangerous levels of risk to
these “Asian Water Towers”, impacted increasingly by
extreme warming, which leads to flooding, landslides,
and drought in the communities they sustain.
At the same time, rainfall and cyclonic patterns
impacting Pakistan are now defined with high
unpredictability and intensity. One heavy monsoon
can compound the water discharge with heavy flows
from upper riparian countries like India, which is
linked in its basin and rivers to Pakistan’s Indus River
system, almost completely redefining the agri-water
nexus in the country. The 2022 monsoon was an
exceptional season of unprecedented, spectacularly
high rainfall patterns that disrupted everything the
world knows about monsoon cycles.
When it inundated one-third of the country and put
Pakistan in world headlines as a global hotspot for
climate change, the UN secretary-general called it a
“monsoon on steroids”. Buckets of water gushed down
from the sky to redefine the topography of Sindh and
Balochistan, the two southern low-riparian provinces
where aridity had advanced substantially over three
decades.
What is lesser known is the fact that every summer,
as global temperatures rise, population growth and
water demand spikes will intersect with climate
change to put severe pressure on water and food
security. Hotter weather will lead to both higher
demand for flood irrigation used by the agri-sector but
also higher volumes of water use in thermal power
production.
Large upstream dams and barrages have not been
able to manage water availability on time for crop
sowing and harvesting among provinces, making
water distribution, governance, and pricing one of the
most hotly contested issues in the federation. Late
water releases, uncertainty in rainfall and runoff
regimes coupled with progressive warming has led to
desertification and sea-water ingress into dry riverbed
channels to destroy the soil and aquifers of the
southern and coastal areas.
What then does Pakistan need to do to manage the
rising levels of water insecurity, unpredictability,
contested distribution and extreme challenges,
ranging from surges in catastrophic flooding to
parched earth and salinity of basins and soil?
Economic constraints cannot continue to define
adaptive capacity. Water security is too critical a
faultline to not merit creative solutions.
Climate solutions, as it stands, face institutional
fragmentation, and remain under-leveraged for the
needed transformational shift. Conventional thinking
in official quarters needs to change. Both scarcity and
flood modelling is needed. First, the Ministry of Water
Resources needs to modernize its policy, capacity,
outreach, and coordination, especially for data-based
solutions for managing rising agricultural, industrial
and urban demand, far more than prioritizing long-
gestation infrastructure projects.
Mechanisms for regulating groundwater usage need to
be introduced. Viable rain harvesting projects need
outlays by each province and canal inefficiencies
plugged in Punjab and Sindh. Flood adaptation and
wetland recharge requires a number of coordinated
community-based solutions. Many such action menus
based on local solutions, including community ponds,
are available in the Living Indus Initiative project.
Second, the Federal Ministry of Planning, for its part,
needs to embed water, climate adaptation and cross-
sectoral demand management into the framework and
PC-1 formats it uses for development and resource
allocation, and move past colonial-era infrastructure
as the only road to conservation or flood-proofing.
Third, the Ministry for Food Security needs to upscale
its climate-smart agriculture solutions and build
resilience toolkits for changing both irrigation and
crop varieties in the provinces by sharing capacity and
local solutions. Agriculture is the largest consumer of
water in Pakistan, particularly thirsty crops like rice,
sugar-cane, cotton, but there is little movement
towards pulses, lentils or crops that need less water
and are currently imported.
Sustainable irrigation models need to be promoted,
not just in pilot projects but those that can be
upscaled, while drought-resilient seeds and new crops
have to be introduced in farms across the delta area
that is fast depleting its ground water as well as its
local economy. Promoting intensive or subsidized solar
tube-well usage is also not helping the groundwater
problem, because much of it has become a finite or
toxic resource due to excessive usage, wastewater
leaching, high pollution, water-logging, over-
abstraction and no cyclical recharge. Arsenic levels
are the fourth highest in the world for Pakistan,
especially in rural Sindh and Punjab.
Fourth, the provinces need to take stock, execute
policy frameworks, and start legally enforcing flood
zoning, water conservation, metering, and municipal
management. Policies have to address looming urban
water scarcity and provinces have to connect the
complex dots of transparent water governance in a
landscape of competing and uncoordinated municipal
and land-use agencies in unchecked urban sprawl.
Big investments in the water, sanitation and health
sectors will help manage urban flooding impacts,
which is the one area international assistance can be
made available. Wastewater treatment and
desalination interventions imply capital outlays but
can be outsourced by cities on public-private
partnership investment models. Different solutions
will apply to mountain areas and different ones for the
crisis-ridden delta areas. These, including tech-based
solutions, are identified and curated in the National
Adaptation Plan 2023 put out by the Ministry for
Climate Change.
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Fifth, nature-based solutions must be applied
wherever possible. Mangrove ecosystems and wetland
recharge projects can build natural buffers to flooding.
Where greening budgets are slashed the provinces can
monetize existing carbon sinks, like Sindh has done to
replenish and add to its mangrove cover. Whether
they are mountain forests or delta mangroves, some
percentage of trading in carbon markets can generate
the liquidity to replace forest cover.
The good news is that Recharge Pakistan has found
itself a climate grant of $77 million, but once it is
spread out over the provinces into one project each,
the scale will not be enough for full-basin upgradation.
Across the country, environment and water
management interventions reinforce each other. This
means, among other things, basic climate zoning,
such as no hotels on riverbanks, or no highways
across green areas, because the environment does not
degrade in silos. Arid zones will grow bigger under all
emission pathways, and when biodiversity losses hit a
danger zone, they take wetlands and rivers down.
DEVELOPMENT IS FOR THE PEOPLE
Every government in Pakistan has made tall claims
about development and delivering wonderful benefits
to the people in its name; and yet Pakistan continues
to occupy lowly positions in world rankings of every
indicator of human and economic development.
We are a country that is the fifth largest in the world,
ranks at 161 in the development of its human
resources, 123 in acquisition of knowledge by its
people, 129 in establishing rule of law and dispensing
justice to its citizens, and 157 in GDP per capita.
One thing that stands out from these low rankings is
that investment in the people of Pakistan to enhance
their knowledge, skills and abilities or protect their
rights with rule of law, has never been a policy priority.
This has landed the country with a huge mass of
disempowered people, unable to create value for
themselves or the country.
Development has become one of those popular words
like ‘democracy’, frequently uttered in public
pronouncements but often used as a shield to cover
up personal agendas of vested interests, with little
benefits flowing out to the people of Pakistan.
It is important to clear our minds about what
development really means, so that the energies and
resources of a poor country do not continue to be
wasted, otherwise we will be groping around in the
dark like those blind men touching different parts of
the elephant and mistaking its parts to be the animal
itself.
Development is an all-encompassing, multi-
disciplinary process, which touches the lives of people
at individual and collective levels and adds to their
social, cultural, economic and political wellbeing. It is
not a catalogue of construction projects, and it is
much more than economic growth.
If development were synonymous with construction,
then no bigger development has taken place in history
than the construction of the pyramids of Egypt – but
these were constructed by the Pharaohs to project
their power and create comfortable conditions for their
afterlife, not to improve the social, cultural, economic
or political wellbeing of the Egyptian people.
Lastly, Pakistan needs its citizens to save water.
Freshwater is still available in the system, but per
capita usage in the country is entirely unsustainable.
Under a high-warming and high population growth
scenario water demand is projected to increase almost
60 per cent by 2047, especially in the domestic and
industrial sectors.
Currently, we have one of the fourth highest levels of
per capita water usage in the world. According to the
IMF, Pakistan’s per capita annual water availability as
of 2017 was 1017 cubic meters, perilously close to the
scarcity threshold of 1000 cubic meters. In 2023,
many urban areas have reported dangerous deficits
which are compounded by the politics of informal
distribution.
We don’t want to become water scarce just because we
could not change our habits. (Author: Sherry Rehman.
The writer is the former federal minister for climate
change and environmental coordination. Published in
Pak Observer in August 2023)
So, development is ‘of the people and for the people’.
In other words, development means empowerment of
the people. That is the first characteristic of
‘development’.
And the litmus test to measure the empowerment of
people is not by how many billions are allocated for
this programme or that project. That figure may be of
interest to those who are given the contract or the
wheelers and dealers to calculate their cuts and
commissions, but it has no meaning for the people.
What is important for the people is to tell them how
many new jobs and business opportunities are
created through these programmes/ projects and
what tools of empowerment – the new knowledge,
skills, technologies, abilities – are imparted to the
people through these projects to enable them to add
value for themselves and for society. And how these
add to the safety, security and dignity of the citizens
and protect them so that their rights, rewards and
opportunities are not usurped by the high and mighty.
Any programmes or projects – and the money spent
behind these – that run counter to this litmus test
may be projecting anyone’s pomp and power, but do
not qualify to be called ‘development’ for the country.
We learn from history that development has not been
a continuous, consistent or sustainable process in
any country. Even as all kinds of things were going on
in the world – wars, conquests, invasions, settlements
or the rule of this or that king or conqueror, tons of
money spent and life going on as it may be – there has
been no development to upgrade the life of the people
living in these countries, even for centuries.
It is noteworthy to recall that it took 1000 years for
the world’s GDP to double before the 18th century,
because the environment for the development or
empowerment of the people did not exist for centuries.
Let us look closely at home. When India started to
become colonized after the Battle of Plassey (1757) it
was contributing 25 per cent of the world GDP. About
200 years later during which all kinds of things – and
governments by this or that local or foreign rulers –
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were going on, the country continued to be pauperised
and its people disempowered socially, culturally,
economically and politically. When it was finally
decolonized in 1947, it had been pauperized by
colonial governance to such an extent that its
contribution had fallen to a mere 3.0 per cent of the
world GDP.
Again, a little more than 100 years ago, at the
beginning of the 20th century, Argentina was among
the five most developed and richest countries of the
world. Today, it has slumped down to the 30th
position, its people suffering from 100 per cent
inflation. Argentina, like Pakistan, is among the
biggest debtors to the IMF with $46 billion of
outstanding debt, and an unending begging bowl
before the IFIs of the world.
That is the second lesson to learn from history: that
development has not been a continuous, consistent or
sustainable process in the history of any country.
That decades, even centuries, can go by without that
society or country seeing any addition to the wellbeing
or empowerment of its people.
The third lesson to learn from history is that
development is not an autonomous or independent
process. It does not happen by itself. It is a dependent
process – a byproduct of an environment or culture
that believes in empowering people and enabling them
to take the processes of development forward.
This is where we often make the mistake of putting
the cart before the horse and complaining why the
cart is not moving forward (that is development is not
taking place). Our deceptive talk of development
without a thought to creating the enabling
environment for it has wasted 75 years and caused
despondency among the people of Pakistan. Can there
be a bigger vote of No-Confidence in the policy choices
made for ruling this country than shown by the
exodus of the people, leaving the country in droves
and even risking their lives in the waters of the
Mediterranean?
The point to note is that the enabling culture that
encourages empowerment of the people is the
foundation upon which the processes of development
can move forward. If the ingredients of that enabling
culture are put in place, development would
automatically happen, as one of the byproducts of
that environment – not the other way around.
To cut a long story short: development of a country
and disempowerment of its people do not go together.
Without investing in people and empowering them, we
would again be wasting years without developing the
country. No country can claim to be developed while
its people remain disempowered.
That the people have the right to development and the
state has a duty to provide an enabling environment
will be discussed now.
Development processes are meant to empower people
and add to their social, cultural, economic and
political wellbeing. If people remain disempowered, no
angels are going to come in and lift the country from
its medieval backwaters of under-development and
put it on the path of power, prosperity and
development.
So the development of the country is a by-product of
the development of its people. Only when its people
are prosperous and empowered can a country hope to
join the comity of developed nations.
Of all things that separated modern from the medieval
world, the developed from the undeveloped, and the
empowered from the dis-empowered, the most
important was a culture change. While it affected the
whole range of how we conduct our life, work and
leisure, the most important ingredient of that culture
change was that individuals took centre stage in
society.
It radically changed the status of the individual from
being a slave or a subject to becoming a citizen with
inalienable rights which could not be taken away at
the whims and wishes of anyone. This empowerment
unleashed the creative powers of the people and
liberated them from the suffocating totalitarianism of
the medieval world.
Any doubts about it should be dispelled by an
example right from our home. Nothing explains better
the pitiful position of people in the suffocating and
tyrannical medieval world than the Urdu phrase used
in the court of medieval kings: “jaan ki amaan
paanoon tau arz karoon” (I will speak or express my
opinion only if you promise not to take away my life –
in case my words do not please the lord!).
Human lives had no value in that culture – much less
their liberty and development. Every aspect of their
lives depended upon the whims and wishes of the
rulers. Any remaining doubts on this would be put to
rest by the diary of French physician Francois Bernier
who spent 12 years in India during the reign of
emperors Shah Jehan and Aurangzeb. How could
anything, any idea, any reform grow in such a barren
soil where survival was every day at risk.
Liberating people from that suffocating tyranny was a
long struggle – both intellectual and physical – that
weakened the medieval culture and made the
transition to the people’s empowerment possible.
What is important here is to highlight the important
features of this culture change and its new value set,
which created an enabling environment.
For our purpose, we will briefly mention five main
features of the culture change which laid the
foundation for the empowerment and development of
the people: One, a belief system that all humans are
equal, and all lives, not just that of kings, conquerors
and clergy are important and must receive equal
rights and protection. Two, there is neither any divine
right to rule nor a hereditary one. The only legitimate
way to rule over people is by the consent of the
governed.
Three, society determines the shape, form, powers and
functions of the state, as well as the rights of citizens
– not the other way around. Four, knowledge is
rational and incremental. Five, the state is a man-
made institution, not a divine creation; and its raison
d’etre is to work for the social, economic and political
empowerment of its citizens in this world.
Once this culture – this value set – is embraced and
lays its roots in a country, development is an
automatic output of this enabling environment which
liberates the creativity of the human mind. It has
continued to add value and wealth to the world.
Previously, it took over a thousand years for the global
GDP to double before this culture change. Later, it
doubled in 100 years in the 19th century and doubled
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again only in 50 years in the 20th century. It
continues to increase by leaps and bounds every
single day.
But countries still mired in the suffocating medieval
culture are miles away from economic growth. In
these countries, economic stagnation and the status
quo continue to prevent people from realizing their
potential. The shift from medieval to modern culture
can best be seen in the context of the power struggle
between the state and society as an attempt to create
a better balance of power between the two.
The resistance of the state to this shift, which earlier
had a monopoly of power, also reflects its concern to
the emergence of a competitive centre of power in
society which may hold the state accountable for not
delivering on the empowerment of the members of
society – the people.
The insistence of some quarters on preserving the
status quo is a throwback to the monarchical style of
governance and the desire to continue to keep power
within the same family or group. This is symptomatic
of the underlying fear of the empowerment of the
people and co-exists with non-representative rule. But
to believe that a country can develop without the
development of its people is wishful thinking.
If we analyze the failing states, we will see that the
disempowerment of their people is a common thread
running through them all. Some countries have ended
up in the list of failing states despite being
independent for 200 years (Haiti) or rich with
abundant mineral resources (DR Congo) only because
their people have remained disempowered.
ADDRESSING PAKISTAN’S TRADE IMBALANCE
Pakistan’s persistent trade deficit has been a major
impediment to economic development. The deficit
stood at $48.35 Billion in the 2022 fiscal year but has
declined to $27.55 Billion this year. Presently,
Pakistan exports goods and services worth $35.21
Billion while imports are estimated to be $60.13
Billion. Exports include textiles valued at $16.3 billion,
food items worth $4.7 billion, chemicals &
pharmaceuticals at $1.4 billion, leather products at
$627 million and sports goods at $461 million. The
principal imports are crude oil & petroleum products
priced at $17.5 billion, agricultural and fertiliser
inputs quoted at $8.25 billion, food items primarily
cooking oils costing $7.96 billion, and machinery
estimated at $4.4 Billion. A portion of the trade deficit
is structural, such as petroleum for automobiles and
machinery not produced domestically, but the
imbalance may be mitigated via myriad strategies to
substitute imports and increase exports.
To remedy the persistent trade discrepancy, let’s start
by addressing the main factors contributing to the
problem. The first issue is the small export base of the
country. Pakistan only exports a limited range of
products and is heavily reliant on sectors such as
textiles and agriculture, thereby limiting the country’s
ability to increase exports. Pakistan needs to diversify
its export base by identifying new sectors and
products that have the potential to generate higher
income. This will require state support for Pakistani
firms entering new markets as well as investment in
Research and Development. For instance, the global
sports equipment market is estimated at $160 Billion.
Pakistani manufacturers could explore new
opportunities in sports such as American Football,
Rugby, Netball, Lacrosse, Australian Football,
In an age of empowered people where new inventions,
discoveries and advances in science and technology
are uncovering the secrets of the universe and leading
the march to ever new sources of power and
prosperity, a country with disempowered people –
mired in unending medieval games of instability with
no agreed code of conduct – is creating problems for
itself and should reset its priorities.
Former Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew
had famously said that a country without the
discipline of abiding by an agreed code of conduct will
find neither democracy nor development.
And a World Bank report on Pakistan says it is
“heartbreaking” that the country has “so little to show
for so much money spent in the name of development”.
On top of this, the country has buried itself under a
mountain of unsustainable debt.
This reaffirms our fundamental concern: that we have
been misusing popular labels like democracy and
development often contrary to the intent of the labels
themselves.
The state should retreat from being an active player in
development and focus on its principal function of
creating an enabling environment for the
empowerment of people. An empowered people will
take care of not only their development but also the
country; because people’s development precedes the
development of the country. (Author: Syed Mohibullah
Shah. The writer designed the Board of Investment
and the First Women’s Bank. Published in Pak
Observer in August 2023)
Baseball and Golf. If Sialkot’s manufacturers can
produce Cricket Bats and meet 70% of the world’s
Football demand, they can also explore opportunities
in other sports.
Low productivity complicates matters for Pakistani
firms competing in international markets. This is a
consequence of poor infrastructure, a scientifically
inept workforce with inadequate STEM skills and
limited access to finance and technology. Addressing
these would necessitate a coherent government
strategy since higher productivity levels will decrease
production costs and increase exports. Pakistan needs
to invest in infrastructure to improve the efficiency of
its export and import processes. This includes
investment in transportation, communication, energy,
and water supply networks. Improving infrastructure
will reduce the cost of production and transport,
making Pakistani goods more competitive in
international markets. Practical examples include
hydropower projects to generate electricity at 3.5 to 5
cents / kWh. This would be followed up with
investments in the Railways for cheaper transport of
goods e.g. upgrading the ML – 1 and ML – 2 lines.
Financial institutions need to be encouraged to
pursue a policy of greater financial inclusion, which
will benefit small and medium enterprises that often
struggle will access to capital. Special economic zones
(SEZs) need to be prioritised to encourage export-
oriented industrialisation. Providing firms operating in
SEZs with quality infrastructure, utilities and support
services will attract foreign investors by creating a
favourable environment for firms to manufacture
exportable goods.
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In the education sector, provincial governments
should prioritise STEM subjects. The IT and
Technology sector could have become a success story
but successive governments ignored subjects such as
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, Data Science,
Biotech and bio-engineering. Therefore, it should not
come as a surprise that the country is not prepared
for a future where Artificial Intelligence, Web 3,
Virtual Reality, advancements in Biotech and the 4th
Industrial Revolution determine the trajectories of
nations. There is no substitute for an educated and
competitive work force, and this necessitates
concentrating on STEM subjects.
Moving on, Pakistan is heavily dependent on imports,
particularly for energy and capital goods. The country
has a limited capacity to produce prerequisites
domestically, implying it must import them. An
example is the $120 billion spent on Petroleum
imports over the past decade. A calculated policy of
import substitution would reduce imports. The
Federal government needs to identify sectors and
products that have the potential to be sourced
domestically and provide support to firms entering
these markets. This will require investment in
infrastructure, education and training, and access to
finance and technology. Establishing a $10 billion
Petroleum Refinery at Hub to meet refining demands,
or even exceed capacity, would save the country $2
billion annually, or $20 billion over a decade.
Pakistan would only have to import Crude Oil and
subsequently refine it for domestic use. Demand for
Petroleum products could be met locally and tertiary
petroleum products could be exported, as China and
India are currently doing. The ensuing savings would
be enough to finance the construction of the Yulbo,
Pattan and Tungus Dams for a cumulative
generational capacity of 7,400 MW. Likewise, Pakistan
has fertile land that could be used for the cultivation
of Olives, soybeans and Palm, and subsequently, the
production of edible oils. This would decrease the
$7.57 billion spent annually on the import of 4.5
million tons of edible oil.
The devaluation of the Pakistani rupee has also
contributed to the trade deficit by making imports
more expensive and reducing the country’s
purchasing power, which in turn has a further
negative impact on domestic demand and GDP growth.
Pakistan needs to strengthen its currency to reduce
the cost of imports and increase domestic purchasing
power. This will require sound macroeconomic policies,
including fiscal and monetary policies, that promote
economic stability and growth. Expenditure on future
projects will have to be determined by economic
feasibility, development priorities and efficient
outcomes, not based on gaining votes from
economically uninformed constituents. For example,
the $1.55 Billion spent on the Orange Metro Line in
Lahore would have been better spent on the 700 MW
Azad Pattan Dam, which would have generated cheap
THE ECONOMICS OF CIRCULAR DEBT
The energy sector of Pakistan has been grappling with
a severe and urgent situation, burdened by the
mounting circular debt (CD) and severe liquidity
pressures. These challenges have been building up for
more than a decade, fueled by a combination of
sluggish reforms, operational losses, and political
reluctances. The fiscal year 2023 witnessed a further
deterioration, putting immense strain on the power
sector, resulting in widespread power outages, load
energy at 4.5 cents / kWh. The economic growth
resulting from cheap electricity would have been
enough to finance multiple metro line projects.
Political turmoil and protests in the country
exacerbate problems, hinder investment and prevent
successive governments from formulating a coherent
trade policy. Any mayhem in the country, whether by
political parties or religious organisations, will scare
off foreign investors, including Chinese manufacturers
attracted by the China – Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Political stability is a prerequisite if Pakistan desires
to attract foreign investment to finance its trade deficit.
On the governance side, the state struggles with a
cumbersome bureaucracy and red tape. Prospects of
legal disputes and a hectic dispute resolution
framework further disincentivise investment. Pakistan
needs to create an attractive investment climate,
including a stable political and economic environment,
favourable policies and regulations, and establish
special courts for investors. Improving the rule of law,
reducing corruption, enforcing contracts and
enhancing transparency are of vital importance. A
strong governance framework will create an
environment that is conducive to investment and
economic growth. Foreign investment can help
Pakistan develop new export sectors and products,
improve productivity levels, and reduce its
dependence on imports.
Lastly, Pakistan needs to reduce trade barriers to
increase exports. The country needs to improve its
trade facilitation measures, including customs
procedures and regulations, to reduce the cost and
time of exporting. The Federal government should
negotiate trade agreements with friendly countries to
improve market access for Pakistani exports in Saudi
Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Oman. Pakistan should take
advantage of its strategic location, which makes it a
gateway to the Central Asian Republics, China, India
and the Middle East. Promoting regional trade, and
developing transport links and trade agreements with
these countries could increase trade flows and
increase exports.
Pakistan’s persistent trade deficit is a major challenge
to the country’s economic development. Despite the
plethora of problems and myriad challenges the
country faces, all of these issues can be systematically
addressed and rectified. Future governments need to
diversify the export base, improve productivity levels,
promote import substitution, reduce trade barriers,
strengthen the currency, attract foreign investment,
develop special economic zones, improve
infrastructure, improve governance, and promote
regional trade. These strategies will require significant
investment and policy reform, but they are essential
for Pakistan to achieve sustainable economic growth
and development. (Author: Ahmed S Cheema.
Published in Daily Times in August 2023)
shedding, exponential increase in tariff and
unexpected additional budgetary subsidies.
At the heart of this crisis lies the power sector,
requiring immediate and concrete reforms to restore
its viability. Recognizing the gravity of the situation,
the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s staff report
and statement have provided valuable insights and
way forward. As part of the plan, the government is
poised to adopt an updated Fiscal Year 2024 Circular
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Debt Management Plan (CDMP) in 2023. The primary
aim of this plan is to reduce the budgeted FY24 power
subsidy from PKR 976 billion, equivalent to 0.9
percent of GDP. Moreover, the plan entails measures
to offset the projected FY24 CD flow of PRs 392 billion
and stabilize the FY24 CD stock at its expected end-
FY23 level of PKR 2,374 billion (2.2 percent of GDP).
The implementation of this comprehensive plan is
crucial to alleviate the energy sector’s woes and pave
the way for a sustainable and robust power industry
in the country.
In the reform plan, a crucial step is the timely
realignment of power tariffs with cost recovery levels
and annual rebasing (AR) by National Electric Power
Regulatory Authority (NEPRA). This entails regular
adjustments based on established formulas for annual
rebasing, quarterly tariff revisions, and monthly fuel
price adjustments. These measures play a pivotal role
in arresting the accumulation of circular debt, easing
fiscal pressures, and restoring the financial health of
power generators, ultimately ensuring a seamless
energy supply.
The government is also cognizant of the necessity to
target power subsidies more effectively. In this regard,
efforts are underway to shield vulnerable segments of
society, introduce fairness, and reduce fiscal burdens.
To achieve this, the government is required to embark
on the third stage of a multi-year subsidy reform plan,
focusing on rationalizing subsidies for major
agricultural users. Alongside, regular tariff
adjustments will be implemented while safeguarding
lifeline and protected slabs for residential consumers.
Furthermore, the government is required to actively
pursue medium-term reforms to tackle costs and
circular debt. These initiatives involve measures to
curb commercial and technical losses, renegotiate
power purchase agreements (PPAs), and restructure
guaranteed debts into more manageable terms.
Additionally, there will be a concerted push to
augment renewable energy capacity and enhance
distribution efficiencies. These reform efforts have
garnered support from esteemed international
financial institutions such as the World Bank and
Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The natural gas sector is confronted with similar
challenges, necessitating regular biannual end-user
gas price adjustments while ensuring protection for
the most vulnerable consumers. Collaborating with
the World Bank, the government seeks to implement
the weighted-average cost of gas pricing law, improve
data management and projection capabilities, and
implement reforms to reduce Unaccounted-for Gas
(UFG) losses. The gravity of the circular debt issue
within the energy sector demands immediate attention
and decisive action. Failing to address this problem
could have far-reaching implications for the economy,
leading to power shortages, diminished industrial
output, and ultimately, a negative impact on the
overall growth and development of the country. The
recurrent problem of circular debt in the power and
gas sectors is not novel. For the past decade, the
nation has grappled with mounting debt, resulting in
a cyclic pattern that appears increasingly challenging
to break. The predicament has been exacerbated by
several factors, including slow-paced reforms,
inefficient distribution systems, and political
resistance to essential tariff adjustments.
Pakistan’s energy sector, long shadowed by systemic
flaws, has been skating on thin ice. It’s a cocktail of
inefficiencies, administrative faux pas, and a chronic
investment drought that’s left powerhouses running
dry. The resultant strain? Spiralling costs, an
unwelcome reliance on premium imported fuels, and a
burgeoning circular debt that increasingly feels like a
millstone around the government’s neck.
The political arena, notorious for its ‘kick-the-can-
down-the-road’ approach, hasn’t helped. Fearing
electoral aftershocks and public furore, authorities
have shied away from biting the bullet on global
commodity pricing and exchange rate fluctuations.
The upshot: a liberal sprinkling of subsidies, intended
as a salve, but only deepening the fiscal quagmire and
stretching the national purse strings to snapping.
Adding fuel to the fire are off-the-books subsidies-
ephemeral band-aids that miss the heart of the
ailment. They’ve spun a web of dependency, turning
power companies into subsidy junkies rather than
champions of fiscal reform. The ripples of circular
debt aren’t just numbers on a ledger but real-world
blackouts and dimmed factories. The everyday fallout?
Stalled production lines, shrinking payrolls, and
businesses turning to pricey power alternatives. And
for foreign investors? Pakistan’s energy landscape
seems more minefield than goldmine. The capricious
energy scene makes them skittish, curbing the very
investments that could inject vigour into the economy
and pull it out of the fiscal doldrums. Addressing this
Gordian knot, the touted Fiscal Year 2024 Circular
Debt Management Plan sounds like a step in the right
direction. But it’s not just about plans on paper; it’s
high time for brass tacks solutions that trim the fat off
the energy sector and lighten the load of this circular
debt albatross.
The first and most crucial step is the timely alignment
of power tariffs with cost recovery levels. Transparent
and regular tariff adjustments, in line with established
formulas, are essential to ensure that power
companies can cover their costs and invest in
infrastructure and maintenance. At the same time,
these adjustments should protect vulnerable
consumers through lifeline and protected tariffs.
Additionally, there is a pressing need to better target
power subsidies. While it is essential to protect the
poor and vulnerable from rising energy costs,
subsidies must be designed to benefit those who truly
need them. The government’s commitment to entering
the third stage of a multi-year subsidy reform plan is
commendable. It should focus on phasing out
subsidies for well-off consumers while sparing the
lifeline and protected slabs for low-income households.
In the medium term, the government should pursue
other critical reforms to reduce costs and circular debt
in the power sector. This includes efforts to reduce
commercial and technical losses, renegotiate power
purchase agreements to ensure fair pricing, and
improve governance and terms of Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs). Increasing competition in the
energy market and expanding renewable energy
capacity are also crucial to diversify the energy mix
and reduce reliance on expensive imported fuels.
Furthermore, addressing circular debt in the gas
sector requires a similar approach. Regular biannual
end-user gas price adjustments, as per established
formulas, can help maintain the financial viability of
gas suppliers while protecting vulnerable consumers.
Simultaneously, measures to reduce Unaccounted-for
Gas (UFG) losses through infrastructure
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improvements and theft control will contribute to
overall cost reduction.
To support the reform efforts, the government should
work closely with international financial institutions
like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank
(ADB). These organizations can provide technical
expertise, financial support, and valuable insights
from successful energy sector reforms implemented in
other countries.
Moreover, a tailored Just Energy Transition
Partnership Investment Plan (JETP-IP) must be
negotiated under the strategic initiative of China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor, so that energy transition
can be accelerated along with much needed
investment into power grids.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s energy sector, long a tangle
of inefficiencies and fiscal acrobatics, stands at the
precipice. For a decade, it’s been ensnared in the
stranglehold of a mounting circular debt, punctuated
by power blackouts and beleaguered bailouts. 2023
only darkened the clouds, with the power sector
bearing the brunt, beset by liquidity woes, and
drawing ever deeper from the national purse.
The heart of the matter? A power sector that’s more
out of steam than it can afford to be, its very viability
hanging by a thread. It’s a quagmire deepened by
political dithering, sluggish reforms, and perennial
operational losses. To many, the grim tapestry looks
familiar – the sector has been down this gloomy alley
before, tethered to a cyclic pattern of debt
accumulation that’s becoming tougher to snap.
The International Monetary Fund, ever the fiscal
harbinger, has thrown a lifeline. They have proffered
THE GLOBAL SECURITY INITIATIVE: EXPECTATIONS
In an era defined by interconnectedness and shared
challenges, global security has emerged as a
paramount concern. Against this backdrop, China’s
Global Security Initiative (GSI) assumes a significant
role in shaping a safer world. The GSI, which Chinese
President Xi Jinping introduced in February this year,
has garnered interest from scholarly experts in
Chinese studies since its inception.
As China rises as a global power, expectations from
the GSI are high, and rightly so. This proactive and
comprehensive initiative holds huge potential to
promote international cooperation, address security
threats, and foster sustainable peace. As this initiative
gains traction, it is critical to examine the
expectations and implications for the rest of the world.
GSI revolves around multiple core concepts. A primary
expectation from the GSI is its commitment to
multilateralism. The success of any global initiative
depends on international collaboration and
cooperation. In order to encourage inclusive dialogue,
consensus-building, and collective decision-making
when addressing security challenges, the GSI must
build on this foundation and further strengthen the
current multilateral structures. Global security is
significantly threatened by cross-border risks like
terrorism and organized crime, and the world expects
proactive action from the GSI in mitigating these
dangers. China’s history in managing internal security
crises, especially its counter-terrorism activities in
Xinjiang, makes it a key player in international anti-
terrorism initiatives. The GSI should collaborate with
other nations to enhance the exchange of intelligence,
the Fiscal Year 2024 Circular Debt Management Plan
(CDMP). Aimed squarely at reining in power subsidies
and offsetting the whirlpool of debt, it’s a roadmap to
breathe life into a flagging sector. And with a target to
stabilise the fiscal year’s debt at 2.2% of the GDP, it’s
more than just a flash in the pan. Central to the
reform drive is tariff realignment. A push towards
transparent, regular adjustments ensures the
economic gears don’t grind to a halt. And as the
government reshapes its subsidy strategy, shielding
the needy without bleeding the exchequer becomes
paramount. Cue the third stage of the multi-year
subsidy reform, which zooms in on agriculture while
keeping a protective arm around residential lifelines.
The future? Think renewables, reduced losses, and
better-managed debts. And while the gas sector
battles its own circular demons, the prescription
remains eerily familiar: fair pricing and regular
adjustments. It’s a path that’ll need global guidance.
Institutions like the World Bank and ADB aren’t just
deep-pocketed allies; they’re repositories of wisdom,
their lessons from other shores invaluable.
A final piece of the puzzle lies with the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor. A bespoke Just Energy Transition
Partnership Investment Plan might be the linchpin,
energising grids and speeding up the energy transition.
In essence, Pakistan’s energy woes, knotted in
political indecision and historical inefficiencies,
demand not just immediate panaceas but a
sustainable vision. The country can ill-afford to let its
energy sector keep running in fiscal circles. (Author:
Dr Khalid Waleed. The writer has a Doctorate in
Energy Economics and serves as a Research Fellow at
SDPI. Published in Daily Times on August 19, 2023)
AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD
orchestrate operations, and devise efficient strategies
to counter terrorism.
Moreover, as societies evolve towards greater
digitalization, the importance of cybersecurity as a
fundamental aspect of global security is enhanced.
The GSI is expected to encourage global cooperation in
cybersecurity matters, including the establishment of
standards for responsible cyberspace conduct by
states, enhancing capabilities, and sharing
information. China, with its rich cybersecurity
knowledge and rapidly growing technological abilities,
is a pivotal participant in this sector. It is irrefutable
that conflict and instability causes substantial
damage to global security; the GSI possesses
considerable potential to foster a meaningful shift in
the promotion of global peace and dispute resolutions.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council,
China’s capacity to influence international
peacekeeping endeavours and mediation initiatives is
greatly amplified. The GSI should take a practical role
in aiding peacekeeping operations, promoting
diplomatic communication, and offering logistical
support to nations going through conflicts.
The GSI is also expected to prioritise environmental
security by promoting sustainable development and
addressing climate-related risks. China is committed
to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and has
immense investments in renewable energy which
make it an influential actor in this domain. Moreover,
during instances of humanitarian emergencies and
natural catastrophes, the world expects the GSI to
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play a pivotal role in delivering immediate and efficient
aid and disaster relief.
China has already effectively persuaded numerous
countries to endorse the concept of the GSI. Although
the idea might have been ambiguous, when it was
proposed by President Xi at the SCO Council of Heads
of State in Uzbekistan, the initiative was rapidly
backed by the majority of SCO members, that is,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
and Uzbekistan. In addition to these, over 80 nations
and regional organizations, including Cambodia,
Mongolia, Cuba, Uruguay, and Nicaragua, have
expressed their appreciation. Pakistan also strongly
supports the Global Development Initiative, a similar
Initiative aimed at expediting the process of achieving
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS), 2030, and
the GSI. In Africa and the Middle East, the GSI has
been used in a variety of foreign policy and diplomatic
initiatives. Moreover, Gulf governments consider the
GSI as well aligned with their security views, hence it
will likely receive support from different parts of the
Gulf region.
However, despite this initial enthusiasm, the GSI will
face significant challenges in the actual
implementation. It is essential to comprehend the
actual capacity of China to implement the GSI as it
appears to function more as a rhetorical tool to
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF THE ISLAMIC SPIRITUAL THOUGHT
ISLAMIC spiritual thought is a tradition of
conceptualizing human affairs that originates with the
Prophet Muhammad (570–632 CE) in seventh-century
Arabia. In his lifetime Muhammad recited the Qur’an
and established a precedent (Sunnah) that Muslims
ever since have taken as a guide for establishing a
just community. In the following centuries, Muslims
spread the Islamic way of life (Deen) across the Middle
East, North Africa, Southern Europe, Iran, Central
Asia and India, until today approximately one and half
billion people, or one-fifth of humanity, identify as
Muslim. Islamic spiritual thought has consistency
insofar as certain terms — such as community
(Ummah), justice (‘Adl) and struggle (Jihad) — recur
throughout the Qur’an and Prophetic narratives
(Hadith) and subsequent spiritual texts.
Throughout its history, however, Islamic spiritual
thought has incorporated modified and challenged
Arab customs, Jewish law, Persian statecraft,
Hellenistic philosophy, Christian theology and
European and American culture. Muslims are
currently debating how to reconcile (or not) Islamic
notions of community and justice and struggle with
concepts that first appeared in ancient Greece or
medieval Christendom, such as democracy, liberty
and secularism. This entry provides a background to
that debate by focusing on how leading Muslim
thinkers address questions of sovereignty and law or
who ought to govern according to which interpretation
of Sharia (divine law).
According to Ibn-e-Rushd, philosophers were best
qualified to interpret scripture, tradition and law
because they possessed the highest form of knowledge.
Following Aristotle, he held that right and wrong were
determined by nature rather than by divine command
and that effective legislation required both theoretical
and empirical knowledge. In the last century of
Abbasid rule in Baghdad, Sufism emerged as an
organized movement of fraternities, building up the
infrastructure of Muslim society and shaping the
Islamic identity of the polity for centuries to come; in
promote Chinese perspectives on global security
governance than as a concrete strategy for
establishing a Chinese world order within the realistic
framework of China’s role as a participant in
international security. It is believed that the GSI
actually lacks the necessary regulatory tools to carry
out President Xi’s aspirational policy objectives, and it
also needs an economic programme in addition to
security measures.
The transition of the GSI from rhetoric to reality is still
in progress, although China has presented numerous
rebranding frameworks to other countries, but few
have advanced beyond Beijing’s merely nominal
endorsement, raising doubts about this initiative’s
chances of taking off. Therefore, it is crucial to track
the progress of the GSI over the coming years and how
it relates to China’s larger objectives of reforming
global governance. It is also imperative to take into
account the practical limitations that will be placed on
China when analysing its motivations. Eventually, for
the GSI, process is as important as results and even if
the most specialized components of the GSI results in
few concrete policy outcomes, the overall initiative will
still foster a friendly international network. (Author:
Fatima Pasha. Published in Pakistan Today on
September 8, 2023)
fact, Sufism made a powerful impact on the fabric of
Islamic polity, which contemporary scholarship has
widely overlooked. Sufism began in the eighth and
ninth centuries in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Iran, with
groups of men of piety leading an ascetic life and
seeking the mystic experience of union with God.
Led by teaching masters called Shaykhs (or Pīrs in
Persian), it developed its ideal of poverty (Faqr) and
trust in God (Tawakkul) and spread its practice of
meditative recollection (Zikr). Its radical spiritual and
social patterns provoked scholars of law and theology,
stirred up urban populations and challenged public
order. After being eclipsed by the Shi‘i renaissance of
the tenth century, Sufism reframed its path to God as
a branch of the Muslim sciences during the Sunni
revival under the Seljuk Turks. Leading into the
caliphate of the Abbasid Nasir (1180–1225), Sufism
organized itself into a large number of fraternities
(Tarīqah) based on a strict order of master and
disciples and marked by initiation rites and common
prayer ceremonies.
Networks of Sufi centres called “lodges” (Ar Ribāt, or
Pers. Khānqāh) paralleled the educational institution
of the madrasa and were favored by sultanate
governments. The sultans sought sacred legitimization
for the secular leadership they had acquired through
usurpation by securing the endorsement of Sufi
Shaykhs, whom they often honored with the title of
Shaykh al-Islam. Sufism was profoundly undergirded
by the monist philosophy of Ibn al-‘Arabi (1165-1240),
who’s pivotal concept of the “Perfect Man” (Al-Insān
al-Kāmil) supplied both an ontological and ethical
ideal. Yet Sufism engaged the emotions as well as the
intellect, tolerating unruly wandering dervishes
(Qalandar) and growing widely popular through its
provocative use of Persian love poetry, especially that
of Jalal al-Din al-Rumi (1207–73).
Drawing upon an image familiar to steppe populations,
the Sufis advocated a “tent” of spiritual rule (Wilāya)
over the entire society. The hierarchy of saints (Awliyā’)
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would be anchored in a spiritual pole (Qutub), which
would in turn be supported by his substitutes, the
“stakes” (Abdāl) and “pegs” (Awtād). Sufi institutions,
often built on the outskirts of urban centres around
the tombs of their founders, produced widely used
manuals that disseminated the ethical and spiritual
ideal of the Sufi way of life and contributed much to
the Islamic identity of populations in India, Southeast
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Sufism made its
principal impact on Islamic spiritual thought and
social practice during the turbulent transition from
the fragmentation of the Abbasid Empire and the
emergence of its three successors.
During the sultanate period of Ilkhanids, Timurids,
Mamluks and Delhi Sultans, Sufi influence was
spread by many orders, among them the Kubrawis in
Pakistan’s Energy Policy: Foresight Versus Hindsight
Pakistan's energy policy has been dictated by a
hapless myopia that has more often than not left the
nation's citizens without power, or burdened with
excessive electricity bills. Instead of hasty political
posturing, prudence must govern Pakistan's energy
choices.
In the realm of energy production, Pakistan has
navigated through two contrasting scenarios over the
years: periods of electricity scarcity that lead to load
management, commonly known as load-shedding, and
times of surplus capacity. In both situations, the
public has not shied from voicing their concerns.
During shortages, the noise emanates from the roar of
generators in shopping districts, while in surplus
times, it echoes in the form of frustration over higher
tariffs and hefty electricity bills.
The journey into private sector involvement in power
generation, which began in the 1990s, led us down a
path of contracting more capacity than our immediate
needs. This era brought "accountability" into the
limelight and ushered in a tumultuous chapter
marked by costly litigation and international
arbitration. At the helm of this accountability drive
was a figure known as 'Ehtisabur Reman.' Those
interested in the details of this tumultuous period can
easily find them through a simple online search.
From 1997 to 2004, we grappled with the dual
challenges of surplus energy and excessive capacity
payments. Yet, from 2008 to 2015, we faced a severe
energy shortage, prompting us to explore various
avenues to meet the demand for electricity.
Reflecting on our energy landscape from 1947 to 2013,
one can discern a pattern of "regular" capacity
expansion plans. During the 1990s, power generation
capacity was bolstered through a mix of public sector
initiatives led by WAPDA and the Pakistan Atomic
Energy Commission, as well as private sector
endeavors facilitated by the creation of PPIB in 1994
and another facilitating agency (AEDB) established
around 2005. Typically, it took approximately a
decade from the inception of a project to its financial
closure, given the nature of the public sector projects
or the stringent requirements of the financial
institutions in standard “project finance” deals.
However, two notable exceptions emerged on
Pakistan's energy horizon, defying conventional
timelines and expectations. Firstly, the power projects
under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
arrived with unprecedented speed, characterized by
their immense scale and rapid execution, true to the
Central Asia, the Shazhilis in Egypt and North Africa
and the Suhrawardis and Chishtis in the Indus and
Ganges plains. The three great empires would draw
religious and political strength from Sufi resources,
the Ottomans from the Mevlevis and Bektashis, the
Shi‘i Safavids from their Sunni Sufi roots and the
Mughals from the Qadiris and Naqshbandis. All that
Islam requires is that men and women strive to create
a just society, where the vulnerable are treated
decently. This was the bedrock of the Islamic spiritual
essence to purify oneself and distribute equality and
justice to society. (Author: Umar Riaz Abbasi (PhD in
Islamic Studies). Published in Pakistan Observer on
September 8, 2023)
Chinese way. Secondly, the public sector, led by Mr.
Shahbaz Sharif & Co., managed to swiftly bring to
fruition four RLNG-based power projects of
considerable magnitude.
While a handful of experts exhibited foresight by
raising pertinent questions about the viability of these
exceptional projects, the majority gave their nod of
approval. This collective decision-making has left us
grappling with excess capacity and the "must run"
obligation imposed by several large projects, including
RLNG and coal-based power initiatives.
In hindsight, we must ask ourselves why we did not
strive for consensus before embarking on these
monumental ventures. Why did we not heed the voices
of experts who raised grave concerns about the
feasibility or non-viability of these projects? Why did
we not consider treating CPEC projects as
government-to-government (G2G) collaborations,
securing significantly reduced “returns on investment”,
both on debt and equity investments by the large
SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) of the friendly
Government of China? These investments, protected
by the Government of Pakistan in terms of concession
agreements and China’s own Sinosure, could have
been structured more judiciously.
We cannot change the past, but we can chart a more
prudent course moving forward. Our first step should
be to lend an attentive ear to the experts, fostering
consensus on how to address the capacity conundrum.
Simultaneously, we must come together to establish a
consensus on how to attract investors, both local and
international, through the SIFC, the recently created
Special Investment Facilitation Council, while avoiding
the repetition of past mistakes.
Just as a company seeks the wisdom of its board and
shareholders and relies on the majority or
supermajority decisions of its directors or
shareholders, our nation must collectively make and
wholeheartedly implement informed decisions. We
should not tolerate political posturing or misleading
tactics. Furthermore, blame games should have no
place in our pursuit of a more stable and efficient
energy future and economic stability. (Author:
Hasnain Naqvee. Published in Friday Times on
September 8, 2023)
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NAVIGATING PAKISTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES
Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped by a combination
of security concerns, diplomatic challenges, and
economic stability. It must overcome these to move
forwards
Since its inception, security has dominated Pakistan's
foreign policy. Having redefined its location as geo-
strategic in a region rife with territorial conflicts,
Pakistan has fashioned a foreign policy where it delves
into a combination of critical issues such as Kashmir,
Afghanistan, and terrorism apart from other self-
serving interests. Amid these challenging issues,
Pakistan's foreign policy faces several challenges that
need to be addressed to effectively navigate the
complex international landscape.
International relations scholars define foreign policy
as a set of strategies, decisions, and actions a
government takes to pursue national interests in
relation to other countries. They analyse foreign policy
through the theoretical lenses of realism, liberalism,
constructivism, and Marxism to understand the
motivations, strategies, and implications of a
country's foreign policy decisions. For most countries,
their foreign policies are shaped by their unique
domestic politics, historical experiences, cultural
values, and geopolitical considerations. After that,
factors such as balance of power, global and regional
dynamics, international institutions, and emerging
challenges such as globalisation, terrorism, climate
change, and human rights influence them.
For Pakistan, though, this has meant security,
whether of the physical or the economic kind. But
there are other challenges as well which this article
will explore.
Security concerns: Pakistan has long been grappling
with grave security challenges. This includes terrorism
domestically and from across its borders, along with
regional conflicts. These security concerns not only
impact domestic stability but also affect Pakistan's
relations with other countries.
Over the past 50 years, Pakistan has been embroiled
either directly or indirectly in various violent conflicts, its total GDP. Pakistan's total Gross Domestic Product
from the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in
1979, the resulting rampant militancy, the US war on
terror and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan
following the 9/11 attacks, all the while dealing with
low-intensity conflict on its eastern border with India
and sporadic issues cropping up on its western border
with Iran. All of these have significantly impacted
Pakistan's foreign policy.
In managing an effective response to terrorism,
tackling militancy, and protecting the global
community's interests, Pakistan was almost driven to
the brink of economic collapse. Even though it
attempted to manage them domestically, its attempts
to raise the issue diplomatically at the international
level received a less than reciprocal response. Instead,
the global community was seen as utterly passive and
non-cooperative.
Still, to tackle these continuing challenges, Pakistan
needs to further enhance its counter-terrorism efforts,
strengthen its intelligence capabilities, and actively
engage with regional and international partners to
promote peace and stability.
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Kashmir dispute: The longstanding Kashmir dispute
between Pakistan and India remains a major
challenge to Islamabad's foreign policy.
The dispute over a region claimed by both India and
Pakistan has been a central point of contention
between the two nuclear-tipped neighbouring but
hostile countries since the Partition in 1947. Pakistan
has consistently advocated for the right to self-
determination for the people of Kashmir and has
sought international support to resolve the issue.
Pakistan's foreign policy regarding Kashmir has
typically focused on diplomatic efforts to raise
awareness about the human rights violations
perpetrated by India and the vain efforts to seek a
peaceful resolution through dialogue with New Delhi.
Pakistan has sought the international community's
involvement, particularly the United Nations, in
mediating the Kashmir dispute.
Islamabad has also highlighted the importance of
implementing UN Security Council resolutions on
Kashmir, which call for a plebiscite to determine the
region's future. Additionally, Pakistan has supported
the right of the Kashmiris to express their aspirations
and has condemned any use of force or repression
against them.
For Pakistan, resolving this critical issue is crucial to
ensuring regional peace and stability. Pakistan should
continue to engage bilaterally with India. It needs to
engage multilaterally at international forums to find a
peaceful solution to the Kashmir conflict.
It is important to note that while the Kashmir issue
has been a key factor in Pakistan's foreign policy, its
overall objectives extend beyond this specific dispute.
Pakistan aims to maintain friendly relations with all
countries, promote regional stability, and pursue
economic development and cooperation.
Economic stability: During the ongoing fiscal year
2023-2024, Pakistan's fiscal deficit is around 6.5% of
(GDP) stands at around $378 billion which is
significantly lower when compared to its eastern
neighbour India, whose current GDP is around $3.6
trillion.
Throw in a balance of payment and devaluation crisis,
and the entire country has been engulfed by rampant
inflation, widespread economic deterioration, and
rising unemployment. In other words, Pakistan is
facing the worst economic recession of its short
history.
Naturally, much engagement between Pakistan and
other nations diplomatically circles to economics as
well.
Economic stability is essential for Pakistan's foreign
policy to effectively engage with other nations.
Pakistan must address economic challenges such as
high inflation, unemployment, and low foreign direct
investment (FDI).
Pakistan can strengthen its position in the
international community by implementing sound
economic policies, attracting foreign investment, and
promoting trade.
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Balancing regional alliances: Given the thrust of
Pakistan's external posturing hinges acutely on geo-
strategic location, Islamabad's foreign policy often
tends to involve balancing alliances with different
regional powers.
However, its economic dependence and fragile
democracy are among the key factors behind its
dependence on power brokers such as neighbour
China and the Western Block led by the US.
Pakistan can ill afford to annoy China for the sake of
the US, and vice versa. A perfect dilemma.
No doubt, maintaining a delicate balance between its
relationships with China, the United States, and other
regional actors is an unenviable challenge.
Pakistan needs to pursue a balanced approach based
on its national interests while actively engaging with
all regional stakeholders to promote peace, stability,
and economic cooperation. The changing regional
security and strategic scenarios have always posed
hurdles for Islamabad to shape cooperative and liberal
foreign policy with a focus on bilateral and
multilateral relations.
Image perception: Pakistan often faces negative
perceptions and stereotypes in the international
community, significantly impacting its foreign policy
objectives.
Over the years, Pakistan has been blamed for various
issues, from human rights violations within its
borders, persecution of minorities, harbouring
militants, sponsoring the Afghan Taliban, and hosting
safe havens for Al Qaeda and the Islamic State
militants.
Despite spending significant blood, treasure, time and
political capital combating religious militancy and
supporting the international community in the fight
against extremism and terrorism, the US and the
Western world have always accused Pakistan of
duplicity and terrorism, which is, unfortunately,
pathetic and unjust.
That being said, Pakistan needs to actively work on
improving its image through effective communication
strategies, promoting cultural diplomacy, and
highlighting its contributions to regional and global
peace.
Pakistan must enhance its soft power through smart
diplomacy to improve its caricatured image on the
regional and global hemispheres.
Way forward: Pakistan must strengthen its
institutions, including the foreign office, intelligence
agencies, and think tanks, to formulate and
implement foreign policy effectively.
Pakistan should actively engage in diplomatic efforts,
including bilateral and multilateral dialogues, to
promote its interests and resolve conflicts. Islamabad
should focus on economic diplomacy to attract foreign
investment, expand trade relations, and enhance
economic cooperation with other countries.
A liberal foreign policy can attract foreign investment
and promote economic growth. By fostering a more
open and inclusive environment, Pakistan can
enhance its trade relations with other countries,
leading to increased exports, job creation, and overall
economic development. Pakistan should build
stronger diplomatic ties and foster cooperation with
the international community. This can lead to
collaborations in various fields, such as technology,
education, healthcare, and research, which can
contribute to the overall progress and development of
the country.
Additionally, Pakistan should emphasise promoting
and protecting human rights, including freedom of
speech, gender equality, and religious freedom
domestically, to improve its image at the global level.
Pakistan should reimagine its foreign policy to
improve its international reputation and demonstrate
its commitment to democratic values. This will surely
help the country earn greater respect and friendly
support from the international community. (Author:
Rahim Nasar. Published in Friday Times on
September 7, 2023) www.CSSExamDesk.com
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A review of Pakistan’s higher judiciary
Author: Rana Banerji. The writer is former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat in India.
Published in The Hindu newspaper on September 20, 2023.
The retirement of Justice Umar Ata Bandial as the
28th Chief Justice (CJ) of Pakistan’s Supreme Court
on September 16, 2023 brings to a close one of the
murkiest chapters in the history of an institution
which has remained blemished due to its cyclical
bouts of adherence to, or resistance against, the
doctrine of necessity.
LAW OF NECESSITY According to Henry de Bracton,
a 13th century medieval jurist, the doctrine of
necessity means “that which is otherwise not lawful is
made lawful by necessity”. In Pakistan, this doctrine
was first used in the Federation of Pakistan versus
Maulvi Tamizuddin Khan case (1955), when the
Federal Court of Pakistan (now the Supreme Court)
headed by CJ Muhammad Munir upheld Governor
General Ghulam Muhammad’s dismissal of Prime
Minister Khawaja Nazimuddin’s government. Maulvi
Tamizuddin Khan, president of the Constituent
Assembly, had challenged the Governor General’s
actions in the Sindh High Court, which struck down
the Governor General’s order.
Thereafter in 1958, through the Dosso versus
Federation of Pakistan, the Supreme Court upheld
Dosso’s conviction for murder under the Frontier
Crimes Regulation, 1901 (FCR), even though the
Lahore High Court had ruled that the FCR did not fall
under the 1956 Constitution. Martial law imposed by
President Iskander Mirza was indirectly validated. In
the Asma Jilani versus State of Punjab case 1972,
Justice Hamoodur Rahman held Yahya Khan’s martial
law as illegal. Asma Jilani Jahangir was a famous
human rights activist in Pakistan. This paved the way
for the restoration of democracy in the country.
However, in the Begum Nusrat Bhutto versus Chief of
the Army Staff case in 1977, the Supreme Court
validated the imposition of martial law under the
doctrine of necessity. The pattern was repeated over
the Junejo government dismissal in the Haji Saifullah
case, 1988 and in the sacking of the Benazir
government by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in
August, 1990 (Ahmed Tariq Rahim versus Federation
of Pakistan).
The practice also emerged of martial law dispensers
getting judges to swear fresh oaths of allegiance under
Provisional Constitutional Orders (PCOs), so that they
would enable the disruption of constitutional
provisions. Only a few ‘braver’ judges dissented.
Therefore, there were PCO judges and non-PCO judges
in different political regimes.
THE IMPACT OF THE LAWYERS’ MOVEMENT
In March, 2007, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad
Chaudhry defied the orders of General Pervez
Musharraf, President of Pakistan and Army Chief,
after which he was summarily dismissed over
misconduct and corruption charges connected to his
son, Arsalan. Mr. Chaudhry’s cause was taken up in a
countrywide lawyers’ agitation which led to his
reinstatement two years later. Much has been made of
this milestone in Pakistan’s judicial history, signifying
a standing up against the military establishment.
However, Mr. Chaudhry’s tenure as CJ brought in
other malpractices like discriminatory and arbitrary
appointments, based on personal loyalties.
The military establishment continued to play a role in
the decisions of the judiciary. In April 2017, once the
Army decided to get rid of sitting Prime Minister,
Nawaz Sharif, CJ Saqib Nisar disqualified him from
holding public office for life in the Imran Ahmed Khan
Niazi versus Muhammad Nawaz Sharif case, otherwise
known as the Panamagate case, over non-disclosure
of an iqama (fee agreement). The legal soundness of
this judgment has remained questionable. Moreover,
Mr. Nisar’s unwarranted forays into health
management or creation of a fund for building dams
has also raised eyebrows.
An attempt was again made in November, 2019 when
CJ Asif Khosa set the cat among the pigeons by
making several disparaging remarks on the proclivity
of generals to give themselves ‘year after year’ of
extensions. Describing his order as an ‘exercise in
judicial restraint’, Mr. Khosa suspended the extension
given to General Qamar Javed Bajwa as Army Chief by
Prime Minister Imran Khan earlier in the year. He also
extracted an undertaking from the Attorney General to
amend laws pertaining to the Army Chief’s
appointment. Thus, in January 2020, the Army Act,
1952 was amended by consensus, factoring in age
related extensions in the tenure of Service Chiefs,
Chairman and Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee
(CJCSC).
THE REIGN OF CJ BANDIAL
Mr. Bandial’s tenure was plagued by the selective
assignment of judges to benches and the isolating of
two senior most judges, Justices Qazi Faez Isa and
Tariq Masood from case work, while Justices Ijazul
Ahsan and Munib Akhtar were overtly favoured and
assisted him in politically sensitive cases. The Bandial
Court was publicly perceived to be openly partial to
ousted PM Imran Khan. All encompassing anticipatory
bail was given in the plethora of cases filed against
him. Even when Mr. Khan was arrested in May, and
brought to court under the custody of a posse of
Pakistan Rangers, CJ Bandial made sure that the
former PM was quickly released on bail by a lower
court. In the Toshakhana case, Mr. Bandial sought to
intervene even as appeal proceedings were pending
before the Islamabad High Court.
Furthermore, allegations on complicity in bench fixing
and corruption among Supreme Court Judges
emerged in audio leaks. Instead of recusing from the
Bench, as audios of his mother-in-law were included,
the CJ reserved judgment and sat over the case for
three months before issuing a 32 page long-winded
order, dismissing it as a challenge against judicial
independence. The schisms within the current 15-
member Court came out into the open, with judges on
his own Bench questioning the power of the Chief
Justice’s ‘one-man show’.
For example, new law was written into Article 63A of
the 1973 Constitution, wherein votes cast under a
whip by the parliamentary party leader were deemed
valid, not that of the party’s head. This seemed
contrary to the powers given under Article 95 for a
‘conscience’ vote during a no-confidence motion. This
ruling enabled the ouster of the Pakistan Muslim
League (N)’s Hamza Shehbaz-led provincial
government in Punjab and its replacement by a pro-
Imran dispensation under Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi.
Similarly, when a Bench led by Qazi Faez Isa ruled in
March, against the powers of the Supreme Court to
initiate suo motoproceedings under Article 184 (2), CJ
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Bandial overruled this judgment. When the Shehbaz
Sharif coalition government legislated later to amend
these powers under the Supreme Court (Practice and
Procedure) Bill, 2023, Mr. Bandial ruled the Act as
`beyond the legislative competence of Parliament’.
THE WAY FORWARD
In the fractious backdrop of a burgeoning executive-
judiciary conflict, the 64-year-old Qazi Faez Isa was
designated Pakistan’s new Chief Justice in July,
almost two months before Mr. Bandial’s retirement.
Mr. Isa has had multiple run-ins with the federal,
civilian and military establishment. In the Quetta
Commission report (2016) constituted by the Supreme
Court of Pakistan under Article 184(3) to investigate
the August 8 terrorist attacks in Quetta, he
commented adversely on ineptitude, particularly of
the Interior Minister, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan.
After the Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP)’s sit-in
demonstrations at Faizabad Mor paralysed public life,
Justice Isa criticised, in February 2019, ‘excesses’ of
the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Intelligence
Bureau (IB) and the Military Intelligence (MI) in first
fostering and later, dispersing the protestors. This led
to the filing of a reference against him in the Supreme
Judicial Council (SJC) by the Imran Khan government.
Surviving these obstacles in appearances before the
SJC, and despite feet dragging by a reluctant Mr.
Bandial after the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM)
government withdrew the reference, Mr. Qazi Faez Isa
has now taken over as CJ, albeit for a short, one year
term (till October, 2024). He would have to focus on
selecting one new judge to complete the 17-member
court and address contentious judgments on
constitutional and administrative powers.
Though there is a seeming constitutional impasse over
fresh delimitation of constituencies after a new
Census, Mr. Isa will have to take a call on the 90-day
deadline for holding fresh elections, so that the
caretaker government’s tenure does not get
inordinately extended.
In sum, though interspersed with brief bouts of
independence, Pakistan’s higher judiciary has fallen
in line, whenever threatened by unforeseen outcomes
of political engineering by the omnipotent military
establishment. CJ Isa’s tenure at least holds the
promise of a return to a more principled interpretation
of basic law tenets, preserving the sanctity of
Pakistan’s only consensus document, the 1973
Constitution.
End of another sordid saga in Supreme Court
history (Author: Rustam Shah Mohmand. Published
in The Express Tribune on September 20, 2023)
Judiciary in Pakistan has, for ages, played second
fiddle to the powers-that-be. The great and noble
traditions of the pre-Partition India were being
decimated at the altar of political expediency. There
were a few institutions of the British colonial rule of
which the undivided India was rightly proud of — the
Indian civil service, judicial systems, Indian Railways,
Punjab’s irrigation system, the post and telegraph
service and the land settlement. Each of these
institutions was unique in the Third World countries
and indeed in many European countries. These were
institutions that India was rightly proud of. But while
the post-colonial India made a commitment to retain,
protect and patronise these institutions, in
neighbouring Pakistan the decline was swift and in
most cases irretrievable.
As politicking took central stage and the rule of law
began to take a back seat in the wake of the launch of
the new country, judiciary also became increasingly
involved in the country’s murky politics. The first
Martial Law of 1958 was a test case for judiciary and
the Supreme Court to assert its ‘independence’. Its
failure to prevent or stop an assault on the
Constitution was a shameful act of obeisance to the
powers-that-be. The rot started and it goes on. In
1969, another military dictator took the reins of power
in his hands. No judiciary could come in his way as he
led the country to a devastating division. In 1977, a
military General removed a constitutionally elected
government, took power and ruled for 11 years. No
Supreme Court could challenge, stop him. What a
disgraceful spectacle of a so-called, controlled
democracy! In 1999, yet another General dismantled
the democratic dispensation, assumed control and
went on to rule for 9 long years. This time the
Supreme Court not only validated a military takeover
but also, in another infamous gesture, allowed the
dictator to make ‘such changes to the Constitution’ as
may be needed — an appeasement to the powers-that-
be, unprecedented even by Pakistan’s standards!
Judging by those standards, the role of the outgoing
Chief Justice is hardly surprising. Supporting a
political party, constituting benches to suit a political
party, choosing to head the bench that would hear a
case involving his own mother-in law came as no
surprise to those who have known the many
structural weaknesses and the many questionable
criteria of how judges in Pakistan are appointed and
elevated to superior courts. The outgoing chief justice
leaves a toxic legacy that would long be associated
with his name. It is shocking that there is no genuine
system of institutionlised accountability of judges of
the superior judiciary. Accountability process is
initiated only in the case of Justice Shaukat Aziz
Siddiqi for his expressing views that were not
acceptable to the powers-that-be. Or accountability
comes into play against Justice Qazi Faez Isa for
similar reasons.
Is there any light at the end of the tunnel? None. The
picture has become even gloomier. There is a huge
despondency amongst those who would like to see the
advent of a new era where the rule of law and the
civilian supremacy are the accepted and established
norms. Society will grow in strength and resilience
only when the rule of law prevails and is accepted by
not only the rank and file but by the elite and those
who wield power. Those who wield power must learn
to bow before the rule of law. Why is there no such
crisis in neighbouring India! A huge country, more
ethnically and linguistically diverse than Pakistan,
with more socio-economic disparities and yet held
together by the unchallengeable rule of law. There has
been no subversion of the Constitution, no Martial
Laws, no military rule even during the worst economic
crisis — because the fabric of society has been held
together by genuine democratic governance. Have we
ever heard of poll rigging in India? Never. How and
when would Pakistan reach a stage where power
transfer is institutiuonalised, where the rule of law is
supreme and where the danger of any ‘interference’ of
any sort does not exist? No hope looms on the horizon
as yet.
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Pakistan’s Renewal of CISMOA With the US
Author: Mustafa Bilal. Published in The Diplomat on September 20, 2023.
Pakistan has reportedly renewed the Communications
and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement
(CISMOA), a foundational defense agreement with the
United States, three years after it had lapsed. The
Pakistan-U.S. CISMOA was originally signed in 2005,
in the thick of the post-9/11 Global War on Terror. A
year earlier, Pakistan had been designated a major
non-NATO ally by the U.S. for being the frontline state
in the counterterrorism campaign. Since its signing,
this defense accord served as the bedrock for
counterterrorism cooperation between Pakistan and
the United States for more than a decade – until it
expired in 2020.
Now that CISMOA is back in force, what are the
prospects for Pakistan-U.S. defense ties?
First, some background on what CISMOA actually is.
To maintain its global defense partnerships, the
United States has routinely signed defense accords
with its allies and partners for sharing and securing
classified military information. These agreements
establish a standardized framework that amplifies
operational compatibility among allied armed forces.
Beyond enhancing interoperability, they ease the legal
and bureaucratic impediments invariably associated
with the acquisition and transfer of sensitive military
technologies – a compelling prerequisite, as such
agreements are mandated by U.S. legislation
governing high-tech exports.
These four types of foundational agreements – the
General Security of Military Information Agreement
(GSOMIA), Logistics Support Agreement (LSA),
Communications and Information Security
Memorandum of Understanding (CISMOA), and Basic
Exchange Cooperation Agreement (BECA) – therefore
constitute the cornerstone of the United States’
international military cooperation.
CISMOA was integral for Pakistan-U.S. military
cooperation during the Global War on Terror. However,
as the war in Afghanistan prolonged and became a
strategic liability for the United States, there was a
discernible shift in U.S. foreign policy against an
evolving geopolitical backdrop. Washington began to
pivot away from the primacy of counterterrorism
toward countering China’s rise in global politics. In an
era of strategic competition, India’s significance for the
United States was revitalized, as New Delhi presented
itself as an indispensable partner in addressing
China’s ascendant global influence.
In stark contrast, relations between Pakistan and the
U.S. deteriorated, marred by mutual distrust,
discordance over Afghanistan, and mounting
frustrations that ultimately culminated with the
suspension of U.S. military assistance to Pakistan in
2018.
India and the United States cultivated their strategic
partnership by fortifying the foundation laid by
GSOMIA, the inaugural foundational accord signed in
2002 to facilitate the exchange of military intelligence.
Key developments such as the India-U.S. nuclear
accord in 2008 and commencement of the Defense
Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) in 2012
envisaged a transformative decade for the trajectory of
the bilateral defense partnership, shifting from a
transactional “buyer-seller” dynamic to a partnership
underpinned by co-development and co-production.
However, the transfer of cutting-edge U.S. military
technology to India remained circumscribed by
bureaucratic hindrances. This bureaucratic logjam
catalyzed the signing of the remaining three
foundational agreements, furthering the objectives
envisioned under the aegis of DTTI.
Since the elevation of India as a Major Defense
Partner of the United States in 2016, both countries
have spent considerable political capital to finalize the
LEMOA, COMCASA, and BECA agreements after
extensive negotiations. These have had profound
implications for regional stability by solidifying India’s
pivotal role as a “net security provider” in the Indo-
Pacific. The agreements also served to increase
conventional asymmetries in South Asia between
India and Pakistan through the transfer of latest
military hardware to India and granting to India of
real-time access to U.S. geospatial intelligence. These
foundational agreements have effectively acted as a
force multiplier for the Indian military as they have
emboldened the adoption of an assertive regional
military posture.
In the background of these transformative
developments, the United States has prudently
navigated its concurrent engagement with Pakistan,
despite pessimistic commentaries about the future
trajectory of Pakistan-U.S. relations amid burgeoning
India-U.S. defense ties and the U.S. withdrawal from
Afghanistan. Pakistan’s geostrategic significance as a
key regional partner has stood the test of time as
prominent U.S. officials realize the imperative of
remaining engaged with Islamabad.
This was exemplified by successive visits of the
CENTCOM commander and the second inter-agency
Pakistan-U.S. Defense Dialogue held in February
2023. The proceedings echoed resolute reaffirmations
of shared commitment to counterterrorism and
expressions of U.S. readiness to ameliorate Pakistan’s
economic woes.
Earlier, in 2022, the Biden administration
demonstrated the political will to maintain defense
ties with Pakistan by approving and justifying a $450
million sustainment package for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet,
notwithstanding vociferous criticism from its “global
strategic partner” India.
During a seminar in April, Pakistan’s ambassador in
Washington, Masood Khan, made a case for
reinvigorating defense cooperation in the context of
the resurgent insurgency in Pakistan since the U.S.
withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The CISMOA renewal hence raises the prospects of a
breakthrough in the reinvigoration of defense
cooperation between Pakistan and the United States.
It’s noteworthy that CISMOA often serves as a
precursor to the deepening of military ties, as it grants
legal legitimacy to Foreign Military Sales conducted by
the United States. This institutional mechanism will
undoubtedly facilitate robust cooperation and
streamlined communication within an ever-volatile
geopolitical environment, as well as contribute
substantively to Pakistan’s counterterrorism
operations.
Nevertheless, a realpolitik analysis undermines
optimistic expectations for the future of Pakistan-U.S.
relations. Short-term converging interests against the
mutual threat posed by terrorism will keep Pakistani
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and U.S. officials on the same page for now. But in the to picking sides between China and the United States.
long term, diverging interests shaped by regional Pakistan’s policymakers “not have time for the Cold
dynamics might obstruct further strengthening of War-style bloc politics that sadly seem to be making a
defense ties, considering the bipartisan consensus in comeback,” as Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto
the United States on thwarting China’s regional Zardari put it, but that choice is not up to Pakistan
ambitions. This underlying U.S. objective not only alone. It might only be a matter of time before
drives ever-closer India-U.S. military cooperation, but Pakistan is forced to concede to the dictates of great
also raises concerns in Pakistan, which has no desire power competition, undertaking otherwise undesirable
to rupture its close ties with Beijing. strategic decisions as geopolitical forces beyond
Pakistan’s control are at play.
Pakistani policymakers thus confront the intricate
balancing act of preserving their proclaimed aversion
The Geopolitics of the New India-Middle East-Europe Corridor
Author: Rajeswari Pillai. Published in The Diplomat on September 19, 2023.
One achievement reached on the sidelines of India’s
G-20 Summit was the new initiative to develop a rail
and shipping corridor connecting India to Europe via
the Middle East. According to a White House fact
sheet, leaders from the United States, India, Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany,
Italy, and the European Union signed a Memorandum
of Understanding (MoU) agreeing to establish a new
India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

That some of the major Middle Eastern countries

including Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE, and Jordan
are part of it makes it noteworthy, especially from a
geopolitical perspective. Announcing this at the G-20
Leaders’ meeting on the Partnership for Global
Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), the leaders
noted that the IMEC will involve rail connectivity,
shipping lines, high-speed data cables, and energy
pipelines. These will complement the existing
maritime and road networks that will enhance
movement of trade and services “to transit to, from,
and between India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Israel, and Europe.”
The new corridor has other important dimensions,
including reliable and secure regional supply chains,
better trade accessibility, and trade facilitation. The
participating countries are looking to “increase
efficiencies, reduce costs, enhance economic unity,
generate jobs, and lower greenhouse gas emissions –
resulting in a transformative integration of Asia,
Europe, and the Middle East.”

Especially since China launched its Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), the United States and its partners
have made efforts to come up with effective alternative
proposals. The PGII, launched as a counter to China’s
BRI at the G-7 Summit in August 2022, is also an
infrastructure initiative to fund connectivity projects
in developing countries. Like IMEC, the PGII has four
focus areas: health and health security, digital
connectivity, gender equality and equity, and climate
and energy security. A year later the MoU was signed,
the PGII has a string of projects and investments.
While details are still awaited, what is currently
known is that IMEC is exploring many different routes
connecting several ports along the way, including
Haifa in Israel, Piraeus in Greece, and three ports on
the west coast of India: Mundra (Gujarat), Kandla
(Gujarat), and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (Navi
Mumbai). There are five ports in the Middle East that
will link up with the Indian ports and these include
Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and Abu Dhabi in the UAE as well
as the Dammam and Ras Al Khair ports in Saudi
Arabia. All of these are being shortlisted to make a

Along with IMEC, the G-20 summit

also saw the European Union
announce its plans for a “Trans-
African Corridor,” a transportation
network linking Angola, Zambia,
and the Democratic Republic of
the Congo. The Trans-African
Corridor was described in the
press release as “a powerful
evolution” of the PGII.

IMEC is significant from an

infrastructure and connectivity
perspective as well as from a
geopolitical angle. The project
involves two separate corridors –
the east corridor, which connects
India to the Arabian Gulf, and the
northern corridor, which connects
final decision that will be based on the routes that will
the Arabian Gulf to Europe. According to the MoU, the
“prospectively reduce the freight load on one route.”
IMEC is “expected to stimulate economic development
through enhanced connectivity and economic
It should be noted that all ports but the Mundra port
integration between Asia, the Arabian Gulf, and
in India, the Haifa port in Israel, and the Piraeus port
Europe.”

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in Greece are government-owned. The Mundra and
Haifa ports are under the control of the Indian
conglomerate, Adani Group. Greece’s Piraeus port is
controlled by COSCO Shipping, a Chinese state-
owned enterprise, which obtained a majority stake in
2016.
According to official sources cited in media reports,
studies are being done to ascertain the state of the
infrastructure, especially railway networks in the
Middle East. Missing links are being noted for fresh
construction work under IMEC. The proposed cost of
IMEC is not available, but one media report indicated
that partnering countries “may allocate an estimated
$20 billion” toward the economic corridor. Other
media reports have indicated an early estimate of $3
billion to $8 billion for developing each of the IMEC
routes, although officials reportedly stated that “it is
too early to peg costs.”
The countries that signed the MoU are to meet in
November to start firming up the details.
In geopolitical terms, IMEC is touted as a counter to
China’s BRI, but the scale and scope of the BRI is
much greater. Since its launch a decade ago, over 150
countries and about 30 international organizations
have signed on to the BRI. India, from very early days,
had objected to it because the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor, a key component of the BRI, runs
through territories claimed by India. Though a large
number of countries have endorsed it, the BRI’s image
has been soured by debt woes in countries like Sri
Lanka. Most recently, Italy announced a decision to
pull out of the BRI because it “did not bring the
results expected.”
It is difficult for a single country to engage in the kind
of economic and strategic outreach that China has
undertaken through initiatives like the BRI. However,
it appears that India, the United States, and a number
of other technologically and financially capable
countries can collectively dent China’s efforts by
offering the developing world a viable alternative. The
IMEC partner countries appear to have the right
ingredients to cause some concern in Beijing.
Will the US Plan to Counter China’s Belt and Road
Initiative Work? (Author: David Sacks. Published in
Council on Foreign Relations on September 14, 2023).
At last week’s G20 summit, President Joe Biden
announced an India-Middle East-Europe Economic
Corridor (IMEC), which seeks to counter the inroads
China has made through its Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) by linking India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe.
This reflects a recognition in Washington that even
though BRI has encountered serious setbacks,
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy
undertaking is not going anywhere. In addition, even a
stumbling BRI poses significant challenges to the
United States, as we argued in our CFR-sponsored
Independent Task Force report. If successful, IMEC
would help knit together important regions and offer
an alternative to BRI, but major questions remain
regarding financing, timeline, and viability.
The Belt and Road Initiative Turns Ten
In September 2013, during a visit to Kazakhstan, Xi
Jinping proposed building a “Silk Road Economic
Belt,” later adding a “21st Century Maritime Silk
road.” Taken together, these two strands, which
sought to connect China to Central, South, and
Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe
would form “One Belt, One Road” (now more
commonly known as the Belt and Road Initiative). BRI
has since outgrown its original corridors, becoming
global in scope. Under BRI, China has financed and
built roads, power plants, ports, railways, and digital
infrastructure. It is the world’s largest ever global
infrastructure undertaking, with China financing up
to $1 trillion in infrastructure around the world.
Nearly 150 nations have signed on to BRI in some
form. China pursued BRI in hopes that it would
absorb excess manufacturing capacity, enable Beijing
to put its excess savings to use, narrow the gap
between China’s affluent coastal cities and its
impoverished interior, and help secure a consistent
source of inputs for China’s manufacturing sector.
New trade routes would reorient commerce away from
the United States and Western Europe and toward
China, further boosting Chinese economic growth. In
addition to the domestic drivers of BRI, China could
convert its economic clout into political sway,
pressuring countries not to take stances that run
counter to China’s interests on sensitive issues.
China’s investments in overseas ports would give its
military greater power projection capabilities.
BRI’s implementation has raised serious concerns
about debt and environmental sustainability. Many
BRI projects were not economically viable and have
increased the debt load of already heavily indebted
countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic eviscerated the
global economy, debt crises emerged in countries that
were major recipients of BRI loans, such as Pakistan,
Sri Lanka, Zambia, and Kenya. As a result, since 2019
China has spent over $100 billion bailing out
developing countries in debt distress. BRI has also
financed carbon-intensive power generation, most
worryingly coal-fired power plants, locking in a
reliance on fossil fuels for decades to come.
Such concerns have led China to recalibrate the
initiative. Xi has stated that BRI will focus more on
poverty alleviation, health care, and green
development. He has highlighted the need for
economic and fiscal sustainability of projects and
pledged that BRI will follow international standards
for project development. Still, there remains a gap
between such declarations and how BRI is being
implemented on the ground. Now, as China is
contending with its own economic issues, BRI is likely
to move forward as a less ambitious undertaking, with
fewer major infrastructure projects and increased
focus on digital infrastructure, financial integration,
and people-to-people ties.
An Alternative Emerges?
While BRI has not gone according to plan, it
nonetheless poses challenges to the United States.
BRI has increased debt burdens, locked countries into
carbon-intensive futures, tilted the playing field in
major markets toward Chinese companies, and drawn
countries into tighter economic and political
relationships with Beijing. It has the potential to
displace American companies, set technical standards
that are incompatible with U.S. products, and push
countries to politically align with China. BRI also
makes it harder for the World Bank and other
traditional lenders to insist on high standards by
offering quick infrastructure packages that forego
rigorous environmental- & social-impact assessments.
Despite BRI’s many flaws, it is important to note that
it is addressing a real issue, namely the urgent and
unmet need for infrastructure investment. The World
Bank has identified an $18 trillion global
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infrastructure gap. As traditional lenders shifted their
focus away from infrastructure, China was willing to
step into this void, and as a result is now the world’s
largest official creditor.
Although the United States has recognized that it has
to offer an affirmative vision for global infrastructure
rather than merely opposing BRI, its response has to
this point been insufficient. On the positive side,
under the Trump administration the United States
provided greater authorities to the Export-Import
Bank and established the Development Finance
Corporation. The Biden administration, for its part,
announced an initiative titled Build Back Better World
(B3W), which seems to have been rebranded the
Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment
(PGII). PGII aims to mobilize private capital to invest in
four areas: climate change and energy security, health
and health security, digital technology, and gender
equity and equality.
Now, in an echo of BRI, the United States and its
partners have introduced IMEC, which seeks to link
India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe via railways and
shipping lines. In addition to the trade links, IMEC
envisions electricity and digital infrastructure as well
as pipe for clean hydrogen export. In Africa, a Trans-
African Corridor (the Lobito Corridor) will connect
Angola to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
and Zambia, eventually reaching the Indian Ocean.
Details regarding financing and timeline, however,
have yet to be announced.
If successful, these corridors have the potential to
increase supply chain security and resilience,
generate economic growth, and promote trade among
U.S. partners. European Commission president
Ursula von der Leyen, for instance, noted that IMEC
would make trade between India and Europe 40
percent faster. At the same time, the new corridors’
geopolitical motivations are hard to miss. If the Lobito
Corridor is able to increase the production and trade
of critical minerals such as copper and cobalt, it will
decrease reliance on China for the electric vehicle
supply chain. IMEC can be seen as an effort to
respond to Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s tilt toward
China, facilitate economic integration between Israel
and the Arab world, and promote an alternative to
Russian energy supplies.
IMEC and the Lobito Corridor are big undertakings
that will take many years to bear fruit even under the
best circumstances. But there is a better and simpler
way to compete with BRI right now: reorienting the
World Bank to focus more on digital connectivity,
infrastructure, and energy access while expanding its
lending capacity. Given its long history of leadership
in the World Bank and its unique position in World
Bank governance, the United States is well positioned
to spearhead such efforts. The Biden administration
should be commended for beginning this process,
which could prove even more consequential than
headline-grabbing economic corridors.
Next month, attention will turn back to Beijing as Xi
hosts the third Belt and Road Forum for International
Cooperation, where he will likely introduce further
tweaks to BRI. The United States, for its part, has put
an affirmative agenda on the table but has a long way
to go in turning the idea into a reality. As Washington
begins to do so, it should also reinvigorate the World
Bank and introduce a trade strategy that
demonstrates its commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
Pakistan at Crossroads of IMEEC and BRI (Author:
Qamar Bashir. The writer is a former press secretary
to the President and former press minister to the
Embassy of Pakistan to France. Published in The
Daily Times on September 16, 2023)
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
(IMEEC) is a proposed trade and investment initiative
designed to connect India, the Middle East, and
Europe. This corridor holds great potential for
fostering economic growth and cooperation in these
regions while serving as a counterbalance to China’s
expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The origins of the IMEEC project trace back to the
2016 G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, where leaders
of India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) agreed to
collaborate on establishing a trade and investment
corridor. Subsequent agreements followed, involving
India and other regional countries like Saudi Arabia,
Israel, and Jordan.
The IMEEC project carries substantial political and
economic significance. It seeks to strengthen trade
and investment ties between India and the rapidly
growing economies of the Middle East and optimise
European economies, while enhancing connectivity
within these regions, potentially fostering cooperation
in various sectors, including energy, transportation,
and tourism. Regionally, the IMEEC project aims to
create a new economic and trade bloc in the Middle
East and South Asia, which could reduce the region’s
dependence on China and promote improved stability.
Building the India-Middle East-Europe Economic
Corridor (IMEEC) could indeed provide India with a
significant opportunity to gain traction against China
for several strategic reasons. The IMEEC project is
often seen as India’s response to China’s Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI), which has expanded China’s
influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe. By
establishing IMEEC, India aims to create its own
economic and strategic corridor, countering China’s
growing sway in the region. It would enhance India’s
connectivity with the Middle East and Europe, two
economically vibrant regions. This connectivity would
open up new trade routes and markets for Indian
goods and services, helping India diversify its trade
partners and reduce dependence on China. The
Middle East is a major source of India’s energy
imports. IMEEC could strengthen India’s energy
security by facilitating the transportation of oil and
gas resources from the Middle East. It would also
provide alternative routes for energy imports, reducing
reliance on China-dominated sea routes.
IMEEC could strengthen India’s strategic partnerships
with countries in the Middle East and Europe.
Enhanced economic ties could lead to deeper security
cooperation, benefiting India’s security interests in the
region. The project’s infrastructure development and
increased trade would boost economic growth in India.
This growth would translate into more jobs and
increased revenue, further solidifying India’s position
as a regional economic power. India has a substantial
trade deficit with China.
By diversifying its trade partners through IMEEC,
India could potentially reduce this imbalance. A
successfully implemented IMEEC could enhance
India’s global influence and reputation as a proponent
of sustainable and equitable development, countering
some of the criticisms directed at the BRI. IMEEC
provides an alternative infrastructure network that
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aligns with India’s interests. This could encourage
other countries, including those wary of the BRI, to
participate, bolstering India’s position as a leader in
the region.
India’s participation in the IMEEC project allows it to
exert political leverage and negotiate favourable terms,
strengthening its position in regional and
international forums. However, the successful
realization of these benefits depends on effective
planning, investment, and cooperation with
participating countries.
The anticipated cost of the project is expected to reach
billions of dollars, although the exact funding
mechanisms remain undetermined. The project is
envisioned to involve the construction of new
transportation infrastructure like roads, railways, and
ports, in addition to the improvement of existing
facilities.
The financing of the IMEEC project is anticipated to
involve a combination of public and private
investments. Governments of participating countries
are likely to contribute some funding, but the majority
of the financing is expected to come from private
investors.
Several potential sources of financing for the project
include Public funding from the governments of
participating countries, Private investment from
commercial banks, investment funds, and other
financial institutions, Grants from international
organizations such as the World Bank and the Asian
Development Bank, Concessional loans from
governments and financial institutions and blended
finance arrangements that combine public and private
funding.
In terms of the United States, the project serves as a
strategic response to China’s BRI, aiming to provide
an alternative and sustainable approach to
infrastructure development while countering China’s
influence in the region. The project, once realized,
could lead to new markets for American products and
services, generate employment opportunities, promote
economic growth, and contribute to the vitality of
American businesses.
The possibility of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
(IMEEC) joining forces and connecting presents an
intriguing prospect. Both projects share common
goals of promoting economic growth and connectivity,
and they could complement each other by creating an
extensive global network of infrastructure.
The BRI, spanning over 60 countries across Asia,
Africa, and Europe, involves the construction of roads,
railways, ports, and other infrastructure, primarily
connecting China to Europe and Africa. In contrast,
the IMEEC is more focused on strengthening
connectivity between India, the Middle East, and
Europe.
The convergence of the BRI and IMEEC could create a
vast interconnected network of infrastructure,
simplifying the movement of people and goods
Pakistan's Climate Change and Food Security Challenges
Author: Dr Muhammad Ahsan Qureshi. Published in The Daily Times on September 20, 2023
Pakistan, like many countries around the world, is
grappling with the complex and intertwined challenges
of climate change and food security. The impact of a
between different countries and boosting global trade
and economic growth. Realizing this vision would
require addressing several challenges. It would require
extensive coordination to merge the two projects
effectively to ensure compatibility between the BRI
and IMEEC networks. Determining how to finance
such an ambitious endeavour would be a complex
task. Public and private investment, as well as
international cooperation, would be vital. The
combined projects would need to incorporate stringent
environmental safeguards to minimize adverse
impacts.
While joining the BRI and IMEEC presents significant
potential benefits, such as facilitating global trade and
cooperation, it also comes with substantial challenges.
Nonetheless, the prospect of creating a comprehensive
global infrastructure network is an exciting concept
that could reshape the world’s economic and
geopolitical landscape. Careful planning and
international cooperation would be crucial to realizing
this vision successfully.
Despite not being a member of the G20, Pakistan
stands to benefit from the IMEEC project in various
ways. It could create new avenues for trade and
investment for Pakistan. Pakistani businesses might
export goods and services to the participating
countries in the region, while foreign investors could
find opportunities to invest in Pakistan, capitalizing
on the project’s developments. Enhanced connectivity
with the Middle East and Europe could make Pakistan
an attractive destination for foreign investment and
tourism. Better infrastructure and transportation
links could facilitate the flow of people and goods,
benefiting various sectors of the economy. The
construction and operation of new infrastructure
could generate employment opportunities for
Pakistani workers.
For Pakistan, the IMEEC project holds the promise of
unique advantages. Unlike other member countries,
Pakistan may not need substantial investments in
constructing roads, bridges, and ports, thanks to its
already established world-class road and
communication network under the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). The potential integration
of CPEC with the IMEEC project could be a game-
changer.
Such integration has the power to invigorate trade
and investment between Pakistan and the
participating IMEEC countries, igniting job creation
and ushering in new opportunities for Pakistani
businesses and the labor force. Furthermore, the
strategic positioning of Pakistan within this network
would significantly expand its reach to regional
nations, the Middle East, and Europe.
When combined with the existing connectivity to sixty
countries through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),
Pakistan could enjoy a remarkable advantage over
member countries in both these influential corridors.
However, realizing this potential would require astute
political, economic, and financial strategies, alongside
effective communication and diplomatic skills.
Pakistan’s role in this evolving landscape could be
transformative if played wisely.
changing climate on agriculture and food production
has far-reaching consequences for a nation where a
significant portion of the population depends on
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farming for their livelihoods. Erratic weather patterns
have become increasingly common, with floods,
droughts, and heatwaves disrupting crop cycles and
leading to reduced agricultural productivity. The
Pakistan Meteorological Department reports an
alarming increase in the frequency and intensity of
these weather-related disasters over the past decade.
Moreover, the melting of glaciers in Pakistan’s
northern regions is endangering the primary source of
water for its major rivers, including the Indus. This
poses a direct threat to agriculture, as water for
irrigation largely depends on glacial meltwater. The
International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD) estimates that the Hindu Kush
Himalayan region, which includes Pakistan’s northern
areas, could lose one-third of its glaciers by 2100.
Changing climate conditions, including prolonged
heatwaves and altered precipitation patterns, have led
to decreased yields in key crops like wheat, rice, and
cotton. The Pakistan Agriculture Research Council
(PARC) reports a concerning decline of four per cent
per decade in wheat yields due to rising temperatures
and water scarcity.
Furthermore, Pakistan is already water-stressed, and
climate change is exacerbating this issue. Higher
evaporation rates and reduced river flow are depleting
water resources for agriculture. The Pakistan Council
of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) warns that
Pakistan may face a severe water shortage by 2025
unless immediate measures are taken. In response to
these challenges, Pakistan is implementing climate-
resilient agricultural practices to adapt to changing
conditions. This includes promoting drought-resistant
crop varieties and improving irrigation techniques.
The government’s National Agriculture Emergency
Program is a significant step in introducing climate-
resilient farming practices across the country.
Transitioning to renewable energy sources, such as
solar and wind power, can reduce carbon emissions
and mitigate climate change. Pakistan has made
significant strides in solar energy production, with
solar farms contributing to the national grid.
Reforestation efforts are also underway to mitigate
climate change and protect watersheds. The Billion
Tree Tsunami project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa aims to
plant one billion trees to combat deforestation and its
associated environmental impacts. The Pakistani
government and various institutions play a pivotal
role in addressing climate change and food security
issues. They are responsible for implementing policies
and initiatives that aim to safeguard the nation’s
agricultural sector and food supply. These policies
include the National Climate Change Policy and the
National Food Security Policy, which provide a
framework for addressing climate change and food
security challenges. Institutions like the Pakistan
Agricultural Research Council (PARC) and the
Pakistan Meteorological Department conduct crucial
research to better understand climate change’s
impacts and develop adaptive strategies for farmers.
Moreover, Pakistan collaborates with international
organizations and donors to access funding and
technical expertise to address climate change and food
security challenges. This collaboration fosters a global
approach to tackling these critical issues.
Coping strategies for food security in the face of
climate change conditions in Pakistan are essential to
ensure a stable food supply for the growing population.
These strategies focus on adapting to the changing
climate and reducing vulnerability to its impacts. Here
are some key coping strategies:
 Diversifying Crops: Farmers can diversify their crop
selection to include varieties that are more resilient
to changing climate conditions. For instance,
drought-tolerant crop varieties can be planted to
withstand water scarcity, while heat-resistant
crops can thrive in warmer temperatures.
 Improved Water Management: Efficient water
management is critical in a water-stressed country
like Pakistan. Implementing modern irrigation
techniques, such as drip and sprinkler irrigation,
can help conserve water resources. Additionally,
rainwater harvesting systems can supplement
irrigation during dry periods.
 Weather Information and Early Warning Systems:
Access to timely weather information and early
warning systems can help farmers make informed
decisions about planting and harvesting.
Governments and organizations can provide this
information through mobile apps, SMS alerts, or
community outreach.
 Improved Storage and Post-Harvest Handling:
Reducing food waste is crucial. Improved storage
facilities, such as silos and cold storage, can help
preserve harvested crops for longer periods,
preventing post-harvest losses.
 Access to Financial Services: Smallholder farmers
often lack access to credit and insurance services.
Governments and organizations can provide
financial support and insurance options to help
farmers recover from climate-related losses.
 Government Policies and Support: Governments
play a crucial role in formulating policies that
support food security in the context of climate
change. These policies may include subsidies for
climate-resilient seeds and technologies, incentives
for sustainable farming practices, and disaster
relief programs.
 Research and Development: Investment in
agricultural research is essential to develop new
crop varieties and technologies that are adapted to
changing climate conditions. Research institutions
can work on breeding programs for climate-
resilient crops.
In conclusion, Pakistan faces significant challenges in
ensuring food security amidst a changing climate.
However, the nation is actively pursuing strategies
and initiatives to mitigate these challenges. The role of
government and institutions is vital in implementing
policies, conducting research, and fostering
international cooperation to safeguard the future of
agriculture and food security in Pakistan. It is a
complex and ongoing effort, but it is essential for the
well-being of the nation’s population and its
sustainable development.
Climate Change is an Existential Threat (Author:
Dawood Kakar. Published in The Daily Times on
September 13, 2023)
US President Joe Biden maintains “Let’s face reality.
The climate crisis doesn’t care if you’re in a red or
blue state. It’s an existential threat,” Presently, due to
climate change the stability of nature is in jeopardy.
Against this backdrop, United Nations Secretary-
General Antonio Guterres argues that the record-
shattering temperature of July 2023 shows that Earth
has passed from a warming phase into an “era of
global boiling.” He reiterates, “The air is unbreathable.
The heat is unbearable. And the level of fossil fuel
profits and climate inaction is unacceptable.
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Leaders must lead. No more hesitancy. No more
excuses. No more waiting for others to move first.
Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just
the beginning. The era of global warming has ended;
the era of global boiling has arrived.”
Scientists warned that the rise of 1.5C temperature of
July 2023 could cause floods and heat waves around
the world. It is a caution for third-world states like
Pakistan where there is no existence of true natural
disaster management. The Pakistani government has
realized this fact but action still needs to be taken.
Former Climate Change Minster of Pakistan Sherry
Rehman opines that Pakistan is a forefront country
facing climate change effects which are causing
drought and floods.
The summer seasonal air across South Asia is a
source of heavy monsoon that can cause up to three-
quarters of Pakistan’s annual rainfall resulting in
frequent flooding across the country. In the summer
of 2022, record-breaking rainfall caused a
humanitarian crisis across the country. In June-
August 2022, Pakistan faced nearly 190% more rain
than its 30-year average. Consequently, the Southern
Sindh and Balochistan were worst affected and
received ‘726% and 590%’ more of their normal
August rainfall, respectively. Pakistan still has not
come out of the losses inflicted by the 2022 floods in
which more than 10 million people were affected and
they are still deprived of necessities of life.
According to the United Nations Children’s Fund
(UNICEF) in Pakistan, 20.6 million people, including
9.6 million children, need humanitarian assistance.
Children are hungry and fighting a battle against
acute malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, dengue fever,
typhoid, acute respiratory infections, and painful skin
conditions with greater risk of mental health. A study
has found that catastrophic floods of 2022 in Pakistan
have imposed more than $30 billion in damages and
economic losses. As per a UN Food and Agriculture
Organization August 29, 2022 report, nearly 80 per
cent of crops in Sindh, which harvests roughly 30 per
cent of Pakistan’s total cotton output, were destroyed.
Ostensibly, huge aid and support are required to
ensure the rehabilitation of families who were
displaced by floods. Though local bodies, NGOs,
UNICEF and Western states have helped to fulfil the
humanitarian needs by rehabilitating and restoring
the existing facilities for the families who returned
home, the issue is not resolved completely and the
threat of revival of climate change issues is again at
doorstep. The recent monsoon wave in the country
Practice & Procedure Act 2023 and the Way Forward
Author: Hafiz Ahsaan Ahmad. Published in The Daily Times on September 19, 2023
Without a doubt, there has always been a lot of debate
about the Chief Justice’s authority, procedures, and
discretionary powers, particularly in relation to the
Suo Moto proceedings under Article 184(3) of the
Constitution and the makeup of the Supreme Court
judges’ benches in light of crucial constitutional
issues. Political parties, bar associations, and the
legal profession all raised these issues at various
points, but nothing has been done that should have
been done sooner, either through legislation with the
Supreme Court’s support or by the Supreme Court
itself through amendment of the Supreme Court Rules
of 1980.
However, the legal dispute between the previous
administration and the superior judiciary over
important constitutional questions compelled the
has proven drastic as many cities are on the verge of
urban flooding. Heavy seasonal rains pounded
Pakistan’s Punjab province by flooding roads in
Lahore city and these monsoon rains crushed a 30-
year-old rain record in Lahore. According to the
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA),
heavy monsoon rains persisted from 25 June to 30
July resulting in 179 individuals losing their lives, 264
people sustaining injuries, 1,594 houses damaged,
and the loss of 480 livestock across Pakistan.
Between 25 and 30 July, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP) province experienced severe devastation due to
heavy monsoon rains and flash floods. The Provincial
Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), KP reported
16 fatalities and 17 Injuries, 126 livestock perished,
and 228 houses were damaged. According to PDMA
Balochistan, heavy rains and flash floods in
Balochistan resulted in five deaths, four injuries, 131
damaged houses, and 315 houses partially damaged.
The districts most affected by these weather
conditions were Washuk and Kharan.
This has severely affected the agriculture sector which
makes up nearly a fourth of Pakistan’s Gross
Domestic Product GDP. Currently, areas near the
Sutlej River face overflowing water and many districts
Bahawalpur and Kasur are flooded. According to the
Punjab Disaster Management Authority about 480
villages in Punjab experienced flooding so far in
August and still the areas are not out of danger.
This flood is caused by excessive water released by
India and mismanagement by local authorities.
Pakistan must understand that climate change is
beyond its control and neighbouring states can use
this nontraditional threat again in future. So remedies
must be taken now to stop foreseen losses in the
country. Balochistan is also affected by floods and the
major reason behind that is illegal encroachments and
lack of dams. The government should think seriously
about rebuilding the damaged dams and remove all
the illegal constructions that halt the natural way of
water making it to cause flood.
$30 billion in economic losses in Pakistan inflicted by
climate change in 2022 validate that climate change is
an existential threat and a bigger threat than the so-
called imaginary conventional threats. Arguably, for
Pakistan climate change would be a bigger threat than
India in the foreseeable future resulting in economic
losses, damaging infrastructure, reducing exports,
causing mental and cultural damage, increasing
poverty and joblessness.
government to pass the Practice and Procedure Act
2023, which addressed these issues relating to the
operation of the Supreme Court. A three-member
committee made up of senior judges, including the
chief justice, was given the authority to take Suo Motu
notice as part of the Supreme Court (Practice and
Procedure) Act, 2023, which aimed to properly
establish benches. Additionally, it covers the right to
appeal and the topic of first hearing in front of the
Supreme Court in order to ensure transparency in the
Supreme Court’s processes.
The (Practice and Procedure Bill) 2023 was approved
and passed by the National Assembly and Senate on
March 29 and March 30, 2023 respectively. The
President sent the bill back for reconsideration
without his signature, but after meeting all
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requirements and regulations, the Joint Session of
Parliament once more approved and passed the bill on
April 10, 2023.
The Act suggested that every case, appeal, or matter
before the Supreme Court be considered and decided
by a bench made up of the Chief Justice of Pakistan
and two senior judges, in that order. Additionally, it
states that any matter involving the exercise of
original jurisdiction under paragraph (3) of Article 184
of the Constitution must first be brought before the
committee for review. If the committee determines that
the matter involves the enforcement of one or more
fundamental rights, it must then establish a bench
consisting of at least three judges of the Supreme
Court, which may also include committee members.
The Act suggests that an appeal be filed within 30
days of the larger bench of the Supreme Court
receiving jurisdiction’s final order, and that the
hearing date for such an appeal be set within a
window of no more than 14 days. Additionally, it gives
a party the freedom to select the attorney of its
choosing when submitting a review application. A
cause, appeal, or other matter’s application alleging
urgency or requesting interim relief must be
scheduled for hearing within 14 days of the
application’s filing.
The Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) does not have the
authority to create special benches or choose its
members, as noted by Justice Qazi Faez Isa, who is
currently the Chief Justice of Pakistan, and Justice
Aminuddin Khan in a detailed order issued in early
April 2023 in a case involving regulation of the
Pakistan Medical and Dental Council (PMDC). They
also stated that all hearings based on Suo Motu
notices and cases of constitutional significance under
Article 184(3) should be postponed until they are
legislated upon, and since then he was not performing
hid judicial functions.
A decade of CPEC – An Appraisal
Author: Hadiqa Mir. Published in The Daily Times on September 16, 2023
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a geo-
strategically significant project for both China and
Pakistan. It will enable China to get out of the Malacca
dilemma and provide an alternative trade route to
China. For Pakistan, CPEC is a ray of hope in the
prevailing tough economic and geopolitical
environment, where it has limited foreign policy
options. The estimated cost of CPEC is $62 billion
from 2015 to 2030. Domains of CPEC projects include
investment in the energy sector, transportation
infrastructure, i.e., roads and railways, development
of Gwadar Port and city, Fiber Optics infrastructure
and establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs)
and industrial parks.
Year 2023 marks the completion of a decade since the
start of the project. The subsequent visits of the
Federal Minister for Planning, Development and
Special Initiatives of Pakistan, Prof Ahsan Iqbal, and
Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng signify the importance
of CPEC for both states. The infrastructure and energy
generation projects have been completed, and the
outcomes are visible; however, it is only through
constant evaluation that we can analyse hurdles and
find ways to complete projects in time. Twenty-seven
projects, totalling $19 billion, have already been
finished, while 63 more projects with a cost of $35.2
billion are expected to be completed by 2030.
However, on April 13, 2023, an eight-judge SC bench
that was considering a batch of three petitions
contesting the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure)
Bill 2023 gave the written order. Whether or not the
bill received the president’s assent, it was ruled on the
basis of judicial independence that “the act that
comes into being shall not have, take, or be given any
effect (and) not be acted upon in any manner,” and
since then there has been a stay order against the
legislation, which has also been criticized.
There is no legal dispute that the Chief Justice has
the sole authority to establish benches for hearing all
types of cases, including those brought or filed under
Section 184(3) of the Constitution. However, the
Supreme Court of Pakistan shall be composed of a
Chief Justice to be known as the Chief Justice of
Pakistan and such other Judges as may be
determined by Act of Parliament, in accordance with
Article 176 of the Constitution of Pakistan.
The Supreme Court’s interpretation of Article 191 and
Article 175(2) of the Constitution will undoubtedly
lead to the conclusion that either the Parliament has
the legislative authority under Article to make laws
with reference to the Supreme Court or the Supreme
Court would have the prerogative granted by the
Parliament undeclared. The new Chief Justice has
now constituted the full court, which is a very good
sign for determining the fate of the Practice and
Procedure Act, 2023. However, in all circumstances, it
would be crucial that the issue at hand be resolved as
soon as possible and that the positive changes
suggested by the Parliament through (Practice and
Procedure Act 2023 be maintained either through
Parliament legislation or through Supreme Court
Rules 1980, which would improve the Supreme
Court’s functioning and public trust.
CPEC projects were divided into the short, medium,
and long term. The short-term projects were further
divided into two phases. The Early Harvest Projects
(EHPs) to be finished in 2018 were part of Phase I.
Phase II involved building essential infrastructure for
energy projects, which was scheduled to be completed
by the end of 2020 or early 2021. Phase-III projects
with completion by the year 2025 included medium-
term initiatives. The projects of this phase included
the establishment of industrial parks and SEZs. In
addition, the Long-Term Plan (LTP) is a conceptual
framework for the CPEC project. It is a national plan
approved by both the Chinese and Pakistani
governments that provides macro guidance for
implementing various projects. Development of
railway infrastructure and operationalising other long-
term projects would be the main goals of CPEC Phase-
IV. This phase is anticipated to be completed by 2030.
CPEC has been one of the most popular and well-
supported projects in the history of Pakistan. The
stakeholders of the project tried to utilise all available
resources to ensure timely completion of this mega
project.
Since the inception of the project, CPEC has been one
of the most popular and well-supported projects in the
history of Pakistan. The stakeholders of the project
tried to utilise all available resources to ensure the
timely completion of this mega project. The energy
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projects, including coal, wind, hydro and solar power,
were planned to be completed by 2018 as part of
EHPs and phase-I projects to fulfil the domestic and
industrial energy needs of Pakistan. So far, 14
projects have been completed in the energy sector.
Sahiwal Coal-fired Project (1320 MW), Coal-fired
Power Plant at Port Qasim (1320 MW), China Hub
Coal Power Project (1320 MW), Engro Thar Coal Power
Project (660 MW), Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (1000
MW), Hydro China Dawood Wind Farm (50 MW), UEP
Wind Farm (100MW), Sachal Wind Farm (50 MW),
Three Gorges Second and Third Wind Power Project
(100 MW), Matiari to Lahore ±660 KV HVDC
Transmission Line Project, HUBCO Thar Coal Power
Project (330 MW), Karot Hydropower Project (720 MW),
SSRL Thar Coal Block-I 7.8 mtpa and Power Plant
(1320 MW) and HUBCO Thal Nova Thar Coal Power
Project (330 MW).
Under the CPEC projects, two projects are still in
progress, while five more are being considered. The
unfinished projects include the Suki Kinari
Hydropower Project (884 MW) and the Coal-Fired
Power Project at Gwadar (300 MW). Under-
consideration projects include Kohala Hydropower
Project (1124 MW), Azad Pattan Hydropower Project
(700.7 MW), Thar Mine Mouth Oracle Power Plant and
Surface Mine (1320 MW), Cacho Wind Power Project
(50 MW) and Western Energy (Pvt.) Ltd. Wind Power
Project (50 MW).
In the transport and infrastructure sector, six projects
were completed under CPEC including Havelian-
Thakot Section of KKH Phase II, Multan-Sukkur
Section of Peshawar-Karachi Motorway, Pilot Project of
Digital Terrestrial Multimedia Broadcast (DTMB),
Lahore Orange Line Metro Train, Khunjrab to
Rawalpindi – Cross Border Optical Fiber Cable, and
Motorway from Hakla to D.I. Khan. All the projects
were completed as EHPs except for the Orange Line
project, which was completed in 2020. Moreover, five
other projects are in the construction phase, i.e.,
Zhob-Quetta Road (N-50), Nokundi-Mashkhel Road,
Khuzdar-Basima Road (N-30), M-8 Hoshab to Awaran
Road Section and Shandur-Chitral Road (KKH
Alternate Route). In addition, eight projects are in the
pipeline, whereas the final five will be long-term
projects.
Another major area of cooperation under CPEC Phase-
III is the construction of SEZs to expedite and
facilitate industrial cooperation and boost economic
activities between China and Pakistan. Four SEZs are
under construction, including Allama Iqbal Industrial
City, Boston SEZ, Rashakai SEZ, and Dhabeji SEZ.
The work on these SEZs started in 2019, 2020, 2020
and 2023, respectively and is still in process. Besides
that, there are various projects under consideration,
including the Industrial Zone in Mirpur, the Industrial
Park on Pakistan Steel Mill Land, the ICT Model
Industrial Zone, Moqpondass SEZ and Mohmand
Marble City.
In addition to the completed projects, there are many
under-construction projects in Gwadar as part of
CPEC. These projects are New Gwadar International
Airport, health facilities including Pak-China
Friendship Hospital, Desalination Plants of 1.2 million
gallons per day (MGD) and 5 MGD. Apart from that,
there are several projects under consideration as well,
including a Landfill Project, fishermen’s making
industry on Gwadar West Bay, Gwadar Smart
Environment Sanitation System, construction of
breakwaters, fish landing jetty and dredging of
berthing areas and channels.
The Pakistan Vocational and Technical Education
Capacity Building Project, Pakistan Vocational
Schools Equipment Upgrading and Renovation Project,
Poverty Alleviation Training, and Emergency Relief
Supplies for Increasing National Disaster Management
Authority Disaster Preparedness Capacity are the
completed projects in the Social and Economic
Development sector under CPEC. In addition, there
are 11 projects under construction, and 10 are under
consideration as well.
CPEC projects have received equal priority from each
government despite differences of opinion regarding
the agreement’s terms and conditions. The prompt
completion of projects illustrates the importance that
all stakeholders gave to the project; however, some
projects experienced delays due to technical or
budgetary issues. For instance, SEZ near Faisalabad
and two hydroelectric projects in Azad Kashmir
(Kohala Hydropower Project and Azad Pattan
Hydropower Project) seem to be progressing slowly.
The disagreement over the parameters of the
agreement was the cause of this delay. Furthermore,
the most expensive project under CPEC, Main Line-1
(ML-1), which will modernise the railway from
Peshawar to Karachi, costing $6.8 billion, was held by
China as it was reluctant to work at the one per cent
interest rate demanded by Islamabad. In this regard,
the CPEC Authority Ordinance was passed in 2019 by
the government to create the CPEC Authority and
ensure the speed of work and progress on CPEC
projects. The authority has a great deal of autonomy
as well as enormous financial and managerial
capabilities.
In the 11th JCC Meeting held in April 2023, both
sides “showed satisfaction on the efficient execution of
various CPEC projects and concurred that all
outstanding matters would be amicably resolved in
the spirit of traditional cooperation, mutual
understanding, complete trust and brotherhood.
Furthermore, the progress on four priority SEZs was
declared adequate and concurred to quicken the pace
of advancement to draw the relocation of high-quality
enterprises. Both parties expressed their appreciation
for the signing of the Framework Agreement for
Industrial Cooperation and agreed to hold bi-annual
meetings to monitor its implementation.”
“All stakeholders and successive governments have
contributed to this mega-national cause that can alter
the economic condition of Pakistan and increase the
geostrategic and geopolitical significance of the
country.”
Now, we have entered phase-III of CPEC, i.e.,
completion of SEZs, and work is going on at a good
pace. Minor differences between parties, political
instability and uncertainty might have impacted the
pace of projects; however, there is no doubt that there
is political will and consensus on the usefulness of
CPEC. There may be differences in terms and
conditions of agreements, but everyone acknowledges
that CPEC is the only opportunity in the prevailing
geopolitical environment that can ensure Pakistan’s
economic development and prosperity. The
aforementioned evaluation of CPEC projects validates
the argument that all stakeholders and successive
governments have contributed to this mega-national
cause that can alter the economic condition of
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Pakistan and increase the geostrategic and
geopolitical significance of the country.
Literacy concerns in Pakistan
Author: Javed Pasha. Published in The Express Tribune on September 17, 2023
Many factors contribute towards the progress of a
nation. The most important one is the development of
its citizens through improving education and literacy.
Literacy provides a platform to the individuals for
their personal growth.
Evidence shows that literacy programmes help
enhance democratic values, peaceful living and
community solidarity. By empowering people,
primarily through a critical and sovereign approach,
literacy can help them engage and assume an active
role locally and globally to face and resolve global
challenges. This helps in the transformation for more
sustainable and peaceful societies.
On the other hand, progress in other areas of social
development, such as health, agriculture, water,
energy and transport, can improve the environments
in which people live, work and learn. Learning
opportunities in multiple forms that become available
due to socio-economic development help promote
literacy.
In collaboration with its member states and partners,
the UNESCO celebrates International Literacy Day on
September 8. This year’s theme was Promoting
Literacy for a World in Transition: Building the
Foundation for Sustainable and Peaceful Societies.
The year also marks the mid-point towards the 2030
Global Agenda for Sustainable Development Goal 4,
promoting Education for All, to which the
international community committed eight years ago.
The objectives of the commemoration include
advancements in literacy and fostering a more literate
society, bringing together policymakers, practitioners,
development partners, youth and individuals to play
their roles.
The Covid-19 crisis and other global challenges have
worsened the educational and literacy opportunities
available to millions of children and adults, largely
those already marginalised before the pandemic. Over
373 million adults across the globe cannot read or
write, and 58 million primary school-age children are
not attending schools.
Literacy enables people to acquire the knowledge,
skills and values required to succeed in our rapidly
changing culture and economy. As such, literacy
contributes not only to engendering personal benefits,
such as better well-being and economic conditions,
but also social, economic and political awareness.
Pakistan has the world’s second-highest number of
out-of-school children. An estimated 22.8 million
children between 5 and 16 years of age are not
attending school, representing 44 percent of the
population in this age group in 2018-19.
The country faces a serious challenge to ensure that
all children, particularly the most disadvantaged,
attend, stay and learn in school. At the same time,
enrolment and progress has been slow in improving
educational indicators in Pakistan.
According to a report, nearly 10.7 million boys and 8.6
million girls are enrolled at the primary level. The
numbers drop to 3.6 million boys and 2.8 million girls
at the lower secondary level. Disparities based on
gender, socio-economic status and geography are
significant. In Sindh, 52 percent of the poorest
children (58 percent girls) are out of school; in
Balochistan, 78 percent of girls are out of school.
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Report
2022 states that by breaking down the data further, it
has been discovered that approximately one in four
(23.45 percent) children between the ages of 5–16 in
Pakistan have never attended school. About seven
percent enrolled and dropped out.
The report mentions that alongside enrolment, there
is a serious need to address the shortcomings of the
system in place responsible for supporting and
overseeing public schools.
The report emphasises that gaps in service provision
at all education levels are a major constraint to
education access. Socio-cultural demand-side barriers
combined with economic factors and supply-related
issues hinder the access and retention of certain
marginalised groups, in particular adolescent girls.
At systems level, inadequate financing, limited
enforcement of policy commitments and challenges in
equitable implementation hamper reaching the most
disadvantaged. Though an encouraging increase in
education budgets has been observed at 2.8 percent of
the total GDP, it is still well short of the four percent
target.
The recent Human Capital Review highlights that
quality education for all children in Pakistan will
require a different approach and substantial financial
efforts, estimated to be 5.4 percent of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). It is added here that 81
percent of children are enrolled in government schools,
whereas 19 percent are going to non-state institutions.
One percent are in madrassahs.
UN Sustainable Development Goal 4 is to “Ensure
inclusive and equitable quality education and promote
lifelong learning opportunities for all.” Gender equality
is linked to the right to education for all. Achieving
gender equality requires a rights-based approach that
ensures that boys and girls, women and men, not only
gain access to and complete education cycles but are
empowered equally in and through education. There is
an opportunity for developing countries such as
Pakistan to improve the living standard of their people
through quality education and access to primary
education.
The UNICEF has established more than 500
temporary learning centres in the worst-affected
districts in Pakistan and supported teachers and
children with education supplies. To support
children’s mental and physical health, the UNICEF is
training teachers in psychosocial care and health
screenings and is preparing for back-to-school and
enrolment activities for schools that have been
rehabilitated.
Pakistan’s educational infrastructure will take many
years to develop if we want our 22.8 million out-of-
school children to be in school. With technology and
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many digital resources available, we can support our
schools.
Audrey Azoulay, the UNESCO director general, has
said, “Literacy is the first step towards freedom,
towards liberation from social and economic
Russia and North Korea: an engagement that displeases US
Author: Dr Muhammad Ali Ehsan. Published in The Express Tribune on September 17, 2023
The United States has a peculiar diplomatic history. It
applies coercive means, economic pressures, isolation
techniques and even military deterrence to enforce
behavioural change in states that challenge the
American-driven world order and international system.
But if the state behaviour continues to take a
threatening direction and creates issues that
undermine American national security then America
changes gears and resorts to diplomatic engagement.
Why not do this in the first place? Why practice
diplomatic isolation for years when immediate
diplomatic engagement could resolve some of the
simmering crises in the world affairs?
North Korea is a country that was denied diplomatic
engagement after the end of the Korean War in 1953.
And it was after 39 years, in 1992, that Washington
began engaging with North Korea for the reason that it
had begun developing its nuclear programme. What
kind of policy would allow countries to take years to
become isolated, secluded, uncertain, insecure,
impoverished and ultimately become threats to world
security? Why not strengthen engagement and build
mutual trust in these lost years? Countries such as
Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya and even
Pakistan that have experienced American interference
in their internal affairs are examples of how such
interference has only led to increase in the difficulties
for these countries. People of these countries have
been subjected to sanctions and various diplomatic
and military pressures yet none of these countries
demonstrate pro-Americanism or an American-desired
positive change.
Except Afghanistan, what has troubled the Americans
most about these countries has been their nuclear
programme. When Pakistan carried out its first
nuclear test in 1998, the US imposed sanctions; and if
it had not been for 9/11 and the compulsive need that
the Americans felt for our use in their fight against
Afghanistan, we could have continued being under
sanctions. In fact, North Korea can learn three great
lessons in how the US has managed and handled Iraq,
Libya, Iran and Pakistan. In case of Pakistan, the
lesson is simple: even if you are under US sanctions,
any future geopolitical necessity may force the US to
reconsider not only making you a major non-NATO
political ally but also a recipient of its civil and
military aid. Western Pacific is showing all the signs of
becoming a conflict-prone zone; and to push back
China and deterring it from attacking Taiwan, the US
may be willing to offer many military advantages to
the countries in the region. I don’t imagine North
Korea allying with the US but given the conditions
North Korea may be able to extract the gains and
concessions that it could not during the two
Presidential Summits.
In case of Iraq and Libya, the lesson is very simple:
the dictators in both these countries gave up their
nuclear weapons programme and the whole world has
witnessed what has become of them and their
countries. I personally think Kim Jong Un has already
learnt this lesson and it is proved by the results of the
two historical North Korea-US summits — the first of
constraints. It is the prerequisite for development,
both individual and collective. It reduces poverty and
inequality, creates wealth and helps eradicate
problems of nutrition and public health.”
which was held in June 2018 in Singapore while the
second followed eight months later in February 2019
in Vietnam. Interestingly, had it not been for these two
summits, Kim Jong Un who has been in power in
North Korea for 12 years wouldn’t have visited and
seen any other country except South Korea, China
and Russia. But this is beside the point, what
happened in the first Summit was followed by the
joint statement by both sides which called for
transformed bilateral relations, complete
denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and recovery
of the remains of US soldiers during the Korean War
from the North. President Donald Trump also
announced the suspension of US-South Korea
bilateral military exercises for year 2018. These
exercises are held every year between the two allied
countries. Kim Jong Un also reciprocated and
returned 55 sets of US soldiers remains from the
North.
Poor eight months follow-up on the Singapore Summit
and not cashing in on the opportunity of this historic
engagement was already laying grounds for the failure
of the coming Presidential Summit in Vietnam.
Knowing what had happened to Iraq and Libya,
President Kim would not denuclearise North Korea
without sufficient guarantees for the security of his
country and so the follow-up Vietnam Sumit which
was scheduled for two days was cut short in an
arbitrary manner by President Trump on the second
day without any announcement. This was taken as a
deep diplomatic embarrassment by President Kim and
it is because of this reason that North Korea no more
responds to American call for a re-engagement and
dialogue with US. President Kim has even given no
response to President Joe Biden’s repeated calls for
dialogue without any preconditions. This episode
clearly suggests that President Kim knows the
strategic significance of his nuclear programme and
he also knows that the US has no interest in what
kind of trajectory the future of his country takes, as
its only interest is denuclearisation of the Korean
Peninsula to which he doesn’t agree without some
North Koran pre-conditions being met.
In the third example which is the case of Iran,
President Kim must have learnt that the US started
applying diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran
and isolated it economically to push it for agreeing for
nuclear negotiations. Even when it eventually signed
the JCPOA nuclear agreement, it didn’t abide by it
and walked out of it under the Trump administration,
demanding not just a ban on Iranian nuclear
enrichment but also stoppage of its missile
programme and end to its support to militant
activities that lead to proxy wars in the Middle East.
The simple Iranian lesson for North Korea is that it is
strategic distraction and loss of diplomatic time and
effort if the US along with its Western allies cannot
stand up for their words and if agreements with them
cannot hold.
President Kim is currently visiting Russia and to
America’s great discontent is openly agreeing to
supply Russia with much-needed ammunition to fight
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the long-protracted war against Ukraine. This
agreement seems as natural as is the US and NATO
countries support to Ukraine. Russia would not need
ammunition and North Korea would not need to
supply it if there was some diplomatic effort to stop
this war. The Ukraine War is another simmering crisis
the US is making no effort to resolve diplomatically. It
Understanding the shifts in G20 and beyond
Author: Abdul Rafay Afzal. Published in The Express Tribune on September 16, 2023
In the intricate tapestry of international diplomacy,
changes in its threads can reflect the shifting contours
of global power dynamics. A recent development that
has sparked lively discussions globally is Chinese
President Xi Jinping’s decision to abstain from
attending the G20 Summit that was recently held in
India.
Commencing in 2008, the G20 has convened world
leaders for dialogue about pressing global issues,
representing a potent embodiment of international
cooperation. Presiding over the world’s most populous
nation, Xi’s absence warrants careful consideration —
it is an indicator of evolving political dynamics and a
possibly new diplomatic narrative. His absence,
extending beyond health-related reasons, underlines a
calculated recalibration in China’s diplomatic strategy.
It could be read as a shrewd maneuver further taxing
the already strained Sino-Indian relationship,
amplified by longstanding border disputes. Another
possible perspective points to China’s support for
alternative multilateral forums, such as BRICS, in
counterbalance to Western-oriented ones like the G20.
Simultaneously, India recently launched the India-
Middle East-Europe corridor connecting Gujarat with
the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Europe.
Some perceive this as a move to counter China’s
ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However,
such a viewpoint might overlook the intrinsic
complexities of global politics.
Surely, this Indian venture as a counterstrategy
against the BRI stands on shaky ground. The BRI,
with a vision to connect Asia, Europe and Africa
through a network of roads, railways, ports and
industrial parks, is touted as a gamechanger in global
trade. Conversely, the India-Middle East-Europe
corridor, while a significant initiative, has a
geographically narrower scope and may hardly
neutralise the BRI’s far-reaching influence.
Furthermore, while various countries may aim to
counterbalance China’s growing dominance,
establishing India as a fulcrum, might not suffice.
China, with its robust technological advancements
and strong economy, continues to assert its influence
in the region and globally, rendering it challenging for
any single nation to rival its dominance effectively.
At the heart of these geopolitical maneuvers, Xi’s G20
absence serves as a critical marker. His non-
attendance could symbolise a broader narrative of
Eastern ascendance and the shifting axis of world
supremacy. It signals China’s decisive voice in carving
its path, reinforcing its vision for global order, even
when met with dissent or questions.
Also noteworthy is Xi’s absence aligning with Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s, hinting at a possible
indication of solidarity. Amidst fluctuating Sino-US
ties and dormant high-level interactions, Xi’s absence
might affect the trajectory of this complex relation.
is when Ukraine will become another Vietnam, Iraq,
Syria or Afghanistan that the US would eventually
give up on the military means and consider applying
diplomatic means to resolve the conflict. That has
been generally the story and the diplomatic and
military history of the great superpower we know by
the name of United States of America.
In the backdrop of the Indo-Pacific region evolving as
a global supremacy hub, Xi’s decision regarding the
upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
summit in San Francisco will be watched closely. If
Beijing chooses not to participate, unlike G20, it
might further shade perceptions about China’s
international standing and influence over foreign
investment.
Underneath these dynamics, however, it remains
crucial not to isolate China’s absence from the G20
but perceive it as part of a larger narrative. While
specifics are being deciphered, China, under the
Communist Party, aims to navigate the tumultuous
corridors of power politics, cement its role as a major
global actor, and subtly restructure the international
hierarchy.
Undoubtedly, the impact of these strategic
undertakings will resonate far beyond the G20 meet,
shaping the course of future diplomacy and
potentially redefining the so-called East-West balance
in international relations.
Multilateralism on the rise (Author: Dr Ejaz Hussain.
The writer has a PhD in political science from
Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC-
Berkeley. Published in The News Internation on
September 17, 2023)
India remained central to the so-called Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM), founded in 1961. It tried to generate
the impression that it preferred neutrality vis-à-vis the
USA-USSR Cold War. It interacted with both the super
powers, more with Soviet Russia under the Treaty of
Peace, Friendship and Cooperation that they signed in
August 1971. With the end of the Cold War in 1991,
India started opening up with all potential players in
the regional and global politics. This included the USA,
Saudi Arabia, Russia and China. India thus followed a
policy of multilateralism emphasised by Shashi
Tharoor, the former external affairs minister, in the
post-Cold War period whereby membership in the
regional and international organisations became a top
priority. Unsurprisingly, India joined the World Trade
Organisation (WTO), the Group of Twenty, commonly
known as the G20, the BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) and some other regional forums.
The G20 has emerged as a prominent international
forum that brings together leaders from the world’s
major economies to discuss and coordinate various
aspects of global economic governance. It was
established in 1999 in response to the financial crises
of the late 1990s and has since evolved into a critical
platform for addressing global economic challenges. It
initiated from the recognition that the Group of Seven
(G7), consisting of the world’s most industrialised
nations, was insufficient for addressing the complex
and interconnected nature of global economic issues.
Till the summit held in New Delhi last week, the G20
comprised 19 individual countries and the European
Union (EU), thus representing a diverse cross-section
of the global economy. Its member countries include
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some key extra-regional players such as China,
Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United
Kingdom and the United States.
It represents two-thirds of the world’s population, 75
percent of global trade and 85 per cent of the global
GDP. Since its inception, the G20 has focused on a
wide range of global concerns such as financial
(in)stability, trade issues and climate crisis.
Organisationally, the G20 summit is a significant
forum for realising international cooperation, bringing
together leaders from the world’s major economies to
address pressing global issues. The G20 summit is
held annually with a rotating presidency, which India
handed over to Brazil last week. Moreover, the group
does not have a permanent secretariat and is
supported by the previous, current and future holders
of the presidency, known as the troika. Currently, the
troika consists of Indonesia, Brazil and India.
With regard to themes of the 18th summit concluded
in New Delhi last week, the G20 carried a meta theme
titled “One Earth, One Family, One Future” whereby
important issues such as food security, climate and
energy, development, health and digitalisation were
deliberated. In practice, however, the summit did not
look like ‘one family’ due to divergent interests of the
core countries particularly the USA, Russia and China.
The latter had Premier Li Qiang attend the
proceedings. President Xi Jinping’s absence was
noticed by the world leaders as well as Indian and
international media. Importantly, Russian President
Vladimir Putin also stayed away. Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov represented his country, which is at
war with Ukraine. The latter received institutional
attention in terms of the language to be used to
describe Russian action in that country. Compared to
the harsh language used in the declaration of the
previous summit, this time around the American and
European leadership tactically consented to a
softening of the text where Russia was not condemned
categorically. The US is wooing India for its
geopolitical objectives in South Asia and the Indo-
Pacific, thus, not turning the summit into a failed
exercise hosted by Modi-led India. The key EU
countries are also constrained by the geo-economic
realities in terms of Russian energy potential for the
European market productivity, as alternatives are
hard to come by in the short run.
The Chinese side seemed fine with this aspect of the
document, too. After all, China is a ‘comprehensive’
strategic partner of Putin-led Russia.
Another important outcome of the summit was related
to the establishment of India-Middle East-Europe
Economic Corridor (IMEC). The IMEC is supposedly a
transnational rail and shipping route stretching
across two continents where the United States expects
to energise economic development through improved
connectivity and economic integration among (South)
Asia, the Arabian Gulf and Europe. US President Joe
Biden has termed it “a really big deal.” However, no
timeframe has been provided with regard to its
practical initiation and completion. Some critics were
quick to project the IMEC as a counterweight to
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that observed its
10th anniversary this year. Though, the IMEC reflects
the US desire, on the one hand, to engage India, the
Gulf economies and the EU commercially yet the
former wants, on the other, to contain China
geopolitically. How the IMEC turns up depends on its
operationalisation. Nonetheless, given the current
trajectory of commercial relations among China, India,
the Gulf economies and the EU, the probability of
IMEC working against the Chinese interests seems
very low.
Last but not the least, the G20 members have
expanded the group through the inclusion of an
important regional organisations, namely, the African
Union (AU). The AU, established in 2002, consists of
55 member states from the African continent. Its
inclusion will certainly make G20 more inclusive,
pluralist and emphatic in terms of addressing
socioeconomic and climatic issues being faced by
billions of people hailing from the Global South.
However, the future course the G20 depends on the
behaviour and role of the key countries particularly
the US, China and Russia. Shifting strategic
alignments in the Middle East, South Asia and the
Indo-Pacific will impact regional geo-economics
connected, to large extent, to China’s BRI currently.
This means that China, with increasing economic
clout (extra)regionally, would have a comparable say
in the working of not just G20 but also the BRICS, the
AIIB and the SCO. As far as India is concerned, G20
and other forums would certainly accord it space for
voicing its foreign policy goals. However, given the
economic disparities and social cleavages at home,
India has still got a long way to go. Pakistan, for its
part, needs to learn multilateralism: engage all
potential players to advance its interests regardless of
ideology and geography. Saudi Arabia, Iran and the
UAE are doing exactly that in pursuing (economic) ties
with China, the USA, the EU, India and traditional
rivals.
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Compiled and Edited by Aamir Mahr | CSS Exam Dask