Multi-Criteria Geothermal Resource Assessment: From Play

Analysis to Sustainability Evaluation

Luca Guglielmetti
20-24.02.2023
Outlook
• General concepts of geothermal energy, geothermal energy systems and geothermal
exploration

• Geothermal Play-based development

• Uncertainties and Risks associated with geothermal resource assessment

• Methods for geothermal resource assessment in a Play-Based perspective

• Case-studies of Play Analysis applied to geothermal resources assessment and

sustainability classification
 si l
Global Primary Energy Outlook

s
Fo
.8%
84
Source: BP, 2020
GLOBAL ENERGY SHARE BY USE

Source: IRENA, 2020

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY RENEWABLES

Source: IRENA, 2020

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY GEOTHERMAL

Source: IRENA, 2020

CARBON DIOXIDE FOOTPRINT OF POWER PRODUCTION
Coal 820

Natural Gas 490

Solar Power 48

Geothermal 38

Source: ThinkGeoenergy (based on IEA / OECD)

Hydro 24

Wind 12

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

CO2 equivalent/kWh
GLOBAL HEATING & COOLING SHARE BY SOURCE

Source: IRENA, 2020

GEOTHERMAL HEATING & COOLING SHARE BY USE AND COUNTRY

Source: IRENA, 2020

What is a geothermal resource?

Geothermal resource
is the
amount of geothermal energy
that can be produced
for human activities
 What people think geothermal looks like

What it actually looks like in most countries

 What is a “Play”?
In geology, a Play, is a group of fields or prospects in the same region that are controlled by the same set of geological
elements and have the favourable conditions, in case of geothermal energy, for hosting a geothermal system

A play type in petroleum geology represents a particular stratigraphic or structural geological setting defined by

source rock, reservoir rock. seal, and trap

A geothermal systems, is defined by the the following elements: heat source, the reservoir rock , the
impermeable cover, the type of fluid
The geological conditions control the heat generation, migration pathway, heat/fluid storage capacity,
the potential for economic recovery of the heat and energy production

In geothermal industry the applications are broad and include

conversion to power, direct heat supply, combined of HP, cogeneration, storage

Ultimately the geological habitat does not only control the play type but also the decision for

applied heat recovery technology

Power plants, Large Heat plants, Ground source heat pumps
 Ultimately the geological habitat does not only control the play type but also the decision for

applied heat recovery technology

Power plants, Large Heat plants, ground source heat pumps, other solutions for
storage and unconventional applications
Geothermal Power
Plant
Croatia

Geothermal Heat Plant (Paris) Combined Power, Heat, Metal project in the
Rhine Graben
 Initial observations of a
possible reserve
The standard play
cycle normally Continued decrease in Testing and adjustments
further exploration of the to initial estimates of
exhibits the following region extraction
steps

Lower success as the High success in locating

reserve is depleted and extracting a reserve
Energy demand
Geo-resources Play main elements
Play assessment can depend on subsurface conditions controlled by the distribution of petrophysical
properties have major contributions to Geo-Resources reservoir characterization such as:
• porosity
• fluid saturation
• permeability
• temperature
Additionally characterization of the structural framework and petrophysical evaluation of every reservoir unit
require the integration of seismic and well log data, to describe the reservoir properties in terms of
thickness, subsurface structural traps, porosity, permeability, hydrocarbon saturation, etc., within a
particular field . Core samples and well logs can be used to determine or estimate the petrophysical
properties, also sonic, neutron or bulk density log can be used to obtain the porosity value; hence, resistivity
logs contribute to calculating the water saturation and fluid discrimination of the reservoir units
3
(ONLY APPARENTLY)
SIMPLE
INGREDIENTS
 HEAT

WHICH IS NATURALLY
STORED EVERYWHERE IN
THE SUBSURFACE
The highest heat flux values are observed along the MID-OCEAN RIDGE SYSTEM

Source: Davies, 2013

Only few HIGH HEAT FLOW areas are in in populated regions, where most of
the industrial geothermal power projects are developed

Persons/km2
10’000

Source: Nasa https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=SEDAC_POP

Only few HIGH HEAT FLOW areas are in in populated regions, where most of
the industrial geothermal power projects are developed

But geothermal is
transitioning towards
low to medium enthalpy
regions
in sedimentary basins
for combined
heating&cooling&power
supply
in densely populated areas
Source: Robertson CGG https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=a15e179c3b6a45ef94107353c2f64fc1
FLUID
WHICH ACT AS A CARRIER
TO EXTRACT HEAT
FROM THE RESERVOIR
AND FLOWS TOWARDS THE SURFACE
 THE GEOTHERMAL FLUID
CAN BE
IN THE LIQUID PHASE

IN THE STEAM PHASE

OR A MIXTURE OF THE TWO
 PERMEABILITY
WHICH IS THE PROPERTY THAT
ALLOWS THE FLUID TO FLOW
ACROSS THE RESERVOIR AND
Video: Soffionissimo Well. Credits @Geothermal Pills
EVENTUALLY TO BE PRODUCED
Geothermal Plays - Subsurface

• A geothermal system is generally classified by its geological, hydrogeological and heat

transfer characteristics,
• A geothermal resource is formed by an economically and tehcnically
sustainable amount of heat concentration in drillable depth of Earth's crust
Geothermal Plays - Subsurface
Geothermal fields installed
worldwide in a plate tectonic
setting. Geothermal play
types with example fields:
CV – Convection dominated
heat transfer,
CD – conduction dominated
heat transfer.
Moek, 2014
 LOW TEMPERATURE
MEDIUM HEATING AND COOLING
TEMPERATURE Heating for
HEATING via swimming pools, Heating & Cooling DEEP SYSTEMS
District Heating greenhouses, using GROUND-SOURCE Cogeneration of POWER
aquaculture. HEAT PUMPS
Networks and HEAT

Sedimentary
Sedimentary
Basins
Basins
and
Crystalline
(EGS)
Source: BRGM
 HIGH TEMPERATURE
POWER PRODUCTION

The Geothermal
fluid is usually in a The main source of
VAPOUR heat is usually a
DOMINATED phase MAGMATIC
Source: BRGM INTRUSION
Geothermal Project Development
Legal
Framework
Financial Engineering

Subsurface Geothermal Energy

Systems

Land
Architecture
Management
Social
Acceptability
The Geothermal Journey
The Geothermal Journey
Is the resource
• Accessible?
• Exploitable?
• Renewable?

What’s the level of risk?

The Geothermal Journey
Play Based Analysis and
Exploration can require large
investment in the early stages of a
project when the Risk is higher,
but such investment can have
huge positive implications in a
swifter resource assessment and
therefore in a more efficient
identification of the final
ESMAP, 2012
development scenarios
Geothermal exploration
Analysis of
existing
data

Drilling 3D Model
Geothermal
exploration
Improved Acquisition
3D Models new data
 Geothermal exploration
Geologic
surveys Grav

3D Passive Mag
Geochemi
Modelling stry Seismic
Acquisition of New Geophysics
Data EM

Thermal
gradient
holes
Geophysics Active Sismic
 Geothermal exploration

Geologic Fluid Minero/Petro Exploration

GRAV MAG MT ERT RS MEQ TGH
Mapping Geochemistry observations well
Porosity
Permeability
Saturation
Fluid quality and type
Fluid Circulation Paths
Clay content
Magnetic mineral content
Metallic mineral content
Mechanical properties
Tectonic structures
Temperature at depth

Legend Degree of correlation STRONG MODERATE WEAK VERY WEAK NONE

GRAV: Gravity
MAG: Magnetic
MT: Magnetotellurics
ERT: Electrica Resisitivity Toography
RS: Reflection Seismic
MEQ: Micro-Earthquake Monitoring
TGH: Thermal Gradient Holes
 Geothermal Play Based Development Drilling
Prospect focus and
DETAIL
resource
This is where the game starts with the identification and execution of prospection and
assessment
detailed exploration activities to locate the most promising targets for drilling phase

COST
Play focus Exploration
An understanding of the geothermal system in the
basin leads to the identification, mapping and
quantification of plays within the basin to integrate available data with
new data and identify favourable areas or Play Sements wthere to focus
Prospection
Basin Focus
The essential ingredients for the geothermal
system are identified by examining the regional geology Existing data evaluation and definition of
framework that controls the type and generation of geothermal the Geothermal system
system to be explored
 One of the main difference between Hydrocarbon
Basin Scale and Geothermal Play Analysis is that HC need a
very detailed reconstruction of the thermal history
and the mechanism that allowd the generation,
migration and accumulation of HC over large
period of time.

Geothermal is much more focussed on present-

day conditions and very rarely we have fluids that
data back of more that thousands of years.

So for geothermal it is important to constrain the

current fault architecture, rock distribution,
stratigraphic succession is happening now rather
than what appenend in the past.
 Basin Scale
However, in sedimentary basins geothermal resources may coexist
alongside hydrocarbon resources. The latter can represent a risk to
geothermal exploration as experienced during the drilling of the deep
St. Gallen geothermal well in eastern Switzerland.
In this case, the unexpected occurrence of substantial amounts of
natural gas, along with other external factors, prevented the
continuation of the geothermal project.

Therefore, basin analysis study aimed at reconstructing the thermal

history of the basin, at identifying favourable conditions for the
activation of a petroleum system and accumulation of HC in
permeable horizons becomes crucial in certain geothermal systems

Source: Omodeo Salé et al. 2020

 Basin Scale
The Basin scale analysis is aimed at identifying the macro-features of the geothermal system such as:
Dynamic
Reservoir Equilibrium State
Static
Liquid Dominated
Fluid Type
Vapour Dominated
Low Temperature (<90˚C)
Reservoir Temperature Medium Temperature (90-150˚C)
High Temperature (>150˚C)
Sedimentary
Host Rock Metamorphic
Volcanic
Volcanogenic Convection dominated
Heat Source
Non Volcanogenic Conduction dominated
 Basin Scale

Catalog scheme for convection dominated geothermal play systems based on the geologic controls of igneous activity as magmatism (volcanic type
with typus locality Java, Indonesia), recent plutonism (intrusion type with typus locality Laderello Italy in the periphery of the Alpine orogeny), and absent igneous
activity but significant active extension (extensional domain type with typus locality Basin and Range, western USA.).
1 – Play type
2 – Typus locality
3 – Plate tectonic setting
4 – Geologic habitate of potential geothermal reservoirs
5 – Heat transfer type
6 – Geologic controls Moek, 2014
 Basin Scale

Conduction dominated geothermal play types, ranging from intracratonic basins to foreland basins of orogenic belts with its characteristic
foredeep to basement (igneous or metamorphic) provinces. Geologic controls in conduction dominated plays are either litho- or biofacies of
sedimentary rock and faults and fractures. Typically these play types are lacking active faulting and seismicity

Moek, 2014
Basin to Play Scale
• The key element in the characterization, assessment and development of geothermal energy systems is the resource type.

• Throughout the past 30 years many resource type schemes and definitions were published, based on temperature and
thermodynamic properties.
• An alternative possibility to cataloging geothermal energy systems is by their geologic characteristics, referred to as
geothermal plays
• Understanding geologic controls, especially of geothermal plays without surface expression, allows the comparison with
hydrocarbon reservoirs through their ratio of porosity and permeability.

• Successful reservoir production from geothermal systems depends mainly on the appropriate selection of resource

characterization methods. The decision for these appropriate methods might depend on the type of geothermal
energy system foreseen for heat and power production and necessitates a classification system for geothermal system types
Play Focus

Moek, 2014
Play Focus

Moek, 2014
Play Scale

Porosity and permeability relation of different geothermal reservoirs.

Porosity/permeability domains are characteristic for different reservoir rock types
Reservoir performance as enhanced geothermal system (EGS) in petrothermal or hydrothermal setting is similar to tight oil reservoirs Moek, 2014
 Play Scale
To add a bit of complexity…… Within a single Basin different Plays can be identified at
different depth and temperature ranges

A. Geothermal plays above 3 km depth with

temperature suitable for district heating,
B. Deep geothermal plays below 3 km depth
suitable for heating and electricity,
C. Very deep geothermal plays below 4 km
depth as potential HDR systems.

Moek, 2014
 Play Scale
Taking observations from Basin Focus
allows the identification of discrete plays,
the areal distribution of each play and their
depth.

This is achieved by analysing available data

such as well data, geophsyics, fluid
geochemistry.
Synthetic stratigraphic log of the
southwestern Molasse Basin with
indication of potential reservoirs, seals
and hydrocarbon source rocks (SR).
SR large circle: major SR; small circle:
minor SR; green: oil; red: gas; b:
biogenic
Moscariello, 2019
 Prospect Scale

When evaluating prospects and prospect portfolios we should place them in a play context. This gives us
strategic information needed to de-risk the play and assess the prospect’s ability to deliver Scope for
Recovery (SFR) volumes
We ultimately can also assess the geothermal potential in related prospects within the same play or play
segment. It can shorten prospect evaluation by giving a focus to the work.
 Prospect Scale
Not all available data provide information for all the elements of a geothermal system, nor
have the homogeneous distribution and quality.
Therefore it is important to identify the confidence associated with each dataset and element
Degree of confidence
HIGH: Existing geologic models are robust MEDIUM: Existing geologic models help to LOW: Very little to no primary or secondary
enough to predict confidently the chance of show where the chance factor may work. data exist to support a geologic model or
success. Several valid, analyzed play-testing Intermediate suggest where the chance factor works. Little
wells exist. Dense 2D or 3D geophysical data to coarse geophysical seismic exists, some or no seismic coverage. Quick-look analysis
with good imaging exists on which play regional maps and geological models of play relying primarily on analogue data.
elements can be mapped or modelled, play elements have been made. Play testing wells
analogues exist, fluid chemistry is monitored may or may not exist.
over time.
 Risk and Uncertainty

Quantifying and representing uncertainty for geothermal systems is

often ignored

However, it’s important to understand:

• which geothermal uncertainties should receive the most attention
• which uncertainty analysis methods could provide the greatest
benefit
 Therefore…
Sound assessment and quantification of exploration risk and uncertainty covers important aspects of
a resource exploration program:
• selection of drilling targets
• estimation of resource type, quality and volume
• decision-making for allocation of limited exploration capital over
time
• communication with potential investors, insurers, and the public
 Probability of Success POS

POS= PT*Pgeol*PQw
PT = Probability of finding a certain threshold temperature
Pgeol = Probability of finding a favourable geologic conditions
PQw = Probability of drilling a successful well (i.e. enough flow rate Q)
 Example
It is relatively easy to define the temperature distribution in the subsurface
However it is quite difficult to identify a good geologic structure and eventually drill a productive well

PT = 90%
Early P = 50% POS= 90%*50%*50% POS=22.5%
geol
Stages PQw = 50%
PT = 90%
Post
Pgeol = 75%
Expl. P = 50%
POS= 90%*75%*50% POS=33.75%
Qw
 Results in real life

Artesian Flow at GEo-01 Low Flow at GEo-02

Upper Mesozoic Carbonates Upper Mesozoic Carbonates

744m 1456m
34˚C 55˚C
55l/s 0.5 l/s
8bars WH pressure 12bars WH pressure
 Risk Uncertainty
involves three elements: reflects “the inability to estimate a value exactly”

What can occur? What is the uncertainty in the volume or

With what probability? permeability of a geothermal reservoir?
With what consequences (often monetary outcomes)?
R=P x I We want to understand uncertainty
What is the percent chance that a well will be a dry hole?
What is the chance to drill into HC pocket?

We always want to reduce risk

 IMPACT
1 2 3 4 5
Negligible Minor Moderate Major Severe

Risk considers the 5 Moderate High Extreme Extreme Extreme

Very Likely 5 10 15 20 25
impact of
4 Moderate High High Extreme Extreme

Uncertainty on the PROBABILITY Likely 4 8 12 16 20

activity or 3
Possible
Low
3
Moderate
6
High
9
High
12
Extreme
15

parameter being 2
Unlikely
Low
2
Moderate
4
Moderate
6
High
8
High
10

assessed 1
Very
unlikely
Low
1
Low
2
Low
3
Moderate
4
Moderate
6
Example…
Induced seismicity associated with injection operations
Probability: Very Likely
a. Impact (Project in Chile): Negligible b. Impact (EGS project in Korea): Severe
RISK SCORE: 5 RISK SCORE: 25
 The Geothermal Journey – Costs of a deep project
Figures in Mchf
Screening 0.35

Exploration 7

Preparatory works 3

Drilling 1st well

Production Tests W1
24

3
70% Subsurface
Drilling 2nd Well 20

Production Tests W2 3

Plant Construction

Connection to the grid

18

7 Level of Risk
30% surface
High
Operation W1 1.6 Medium-High
Medium-Low
Operation W2 1.6
High

Estimated costs repartition for a deep geothermal projects based on a doublet system (modified from : https://geothermie-schweiz.ch/)
 Risk Uncertainty
Geological Model
(Static) Geologic Uncertainities
Reservoir model
Technological Uncertainities
Production Strategy (Static+Dynamic)
Risk Analysis Economic Uncertainties
Decision Process Flow chart showing typical geothermal resource development
pathways including the relationship between uncertainty and
Field Development risk. (mod from Witter et al. 2019)
 Types of Uncertainty

Epistemic uncertainty
• Result of lack of knowledge
• Can be reduced with additional observations
The geometry of a fault system can be constrained by
drilling a well that intersects the fault in the subsurface or
by collecting new seismic data
Aleatory variability
• unpredictability due to inherent randomness.
• function of scale
The porosity/permeability of a stratigraphic unit may
be approximated as a single value at the basin scale, but
at the well-bore scale may be highly variable due to local
stratification, grain-size, cementation, or fracture
characteristics.
Where does Uncertainty lies in geothermal exploration?
Geology

Geophysics

U N
Geochemistry C E R T Model
Static A I N T YModel
Dynamic

Rock properties

Well
 So… How to understand Uncertainties
• Uncertainty of a static model is transferred to a dynamic model
• An ideal (and purely theoretical) approach could involve propagation of all uncertainties into a final conceptual model that
quantitatively visualizes regions with high, medium, and low uncertainty
• Construction of multiple working hypotheses (models) has long been recognized as having a positive effect on interpretation
outcomes but this is rarely done in practice because of limitations on time and also because, as humans, single 3D models are
cognitively easier to contend with and defend

The four main bias:

1. Availability bias (the most familiar model is preferred)
2. Confirmation bias (the interpreter seeks to confirm own hypothesis)
3. Anchoring bias (inability of the interpreter to change their mind
about the interpretation)
4. Optimistic bias (the interpreter gives a positive spin on
interpretation to get desired outcome)
Therefore…
Construction of a set of equiprobable static model twins, all representative of geological setting will allow
quantifying the uncertainty of the static model

Only then…
The dynamic modelling exercise effectively translates geological uncertainty to risk by converting a 3D
geologic framework and thermal fluid flow into a probability function of energy generation in units of MW
(which is then convertible to revenue).

And eventually…
If it is possible to translate uncertainty into risk in this manner, then it is easier to determine which
geologic/reservoir uncertainties cause the greatest risk for the decision-maker and have the greatest impact
on the financial outcome of the project.
 From Uncertainty to Risk
A Play geothermal exploration approach for which the model uncertainty has been well-characterized is only of value if the measure of
uncertainty can be converted into an evaluation of the project risk.
Project developers are keen to know the probability (risk) that a specific geothermal resource will produce a certain threshold amount of
electrical energy

Geothermal Potential Estimation

Using statistical methods It is possible to covert uncertainties (in reservoir size, temperature, porosity, and recovery
factor) to risk by estimating the probability of energy generation capacity for a given resource (e.g. the expression P90
= 45 MWe means there is a 90% probability that the geothermal resource has an electrical generating capacity of 45
Megawatts)
 A key to success

Prioritize…
… uncertainty quantification to those subsurface parameters that are most influential to the success of
exploration and development stages of the project and hence that affect the financial outcome of the project.
Temperature
Permeability
Type of Fluid
Reservoir Volume
 Level of
Category Uncertainity Risk Opportunity Mitigation action
Uncertainity
Geometry and Revision of the Quaternary 3D
negative impact, i.e., contamination by
distribuiton of suitable for Ground Source Heat model by acquisition of new
low deeper fluids of main freshwater
Quaternary Pump utilizations geophysical data (gravity,
resources hosted in the Quaternary units
aquifers seismic, electric?)
under- or overestimation of reservoir
Presence of
properties could lead to wrong conceptual
porous
model and consequent inadequate better image of subsurface (i.e.
sandstones in Medium suitable for heat storage
definition of drilling targets and type of seismic)
the Cenozoic
production development (i.e. heat
Molasse
production vs storage)

Large karst drilling and logging, managing large improve analogue model and
medium high water flow rates
occurrence water flow imaging of top Cretaceous
small karst improve analogue model and
high limited effective reservoir dimension moderate to high water flow
occurrence imaging of top Cretaceous
under- or overestimation of dimensions
dimension and reef complex may be connected
could lead to wrong conceptual model
geometry of through fault and fracture
and consequent inadequate definition of improve analogue model and
individual Malm medium network to larger deeper
drilling targets and production imaging of top Jurassic
reef complex reservoirs. If isolated can be an

Reservoir Geology
development (i.e. heat production, heat
across the basin excellet reservoir for heat storage
storage)
better image of subsurface,
large production difficult to drill and log and, managing
medium high water flow rates improve analogue model and
from Dogger large water flow
imaging of Dogger
production drilling and logging, managing large high water flow rates potentially
better image of subsurface (i.e.
fromTriassic high water flow, potentially high salinity fluids, favourable for large heat
3D seismic)
units scaling/corrosion problems production
better image of subsurface (i.e.
production from
drilling and logging, HC occurrence, high temperatures potentially 3D seismic), combined
Permo- high
unknown presence of geothermal fluid favourable for power production petroleum system and
Carboniferous
geothermal models
drilling risk, induced seismicity depending
production from high flow rates and circulation of
on producing interval depth, faults can better image of subsurface (i.e.
fault-related low hot water from deeper
allow HC-rich deep waters upflow, 3D seismic)
fracture subsurface
fractures can be sealed
borehole images acquisition,
fracture not optimized production,
high not efficient well design develop predictive model and
orientation learning on structural
upscaling at reservoir scale
non connected borehole images acquisition,
(open) fracture high low o no well deliverability learning about subsurface
develop predictive model
network
dolomitiation
not widely learning about dolomite acquire cores on interval of
medium well deliverability negatively affected
spread in the
subsurface
distribution in the subsurface interest
(Moscariello et al. 2020)
 Level of
Category Uncertainity Risk Opportunity Mitigation action
Uncertainity
not accurate acquire cores and Phi/K logs on
not accurate geological model and poor learning about K/Phi distribution
Phi/K high intervals of interest; establish a

Petrophysics
identification of well targets in the subsurface
distribution sound analogue data base
learning about geometry and
relevance of acquire cores and Phi/K logs on
not accurate geological model and dimension considering
Phi/K from high intervals of interest; establish a
prediction of well deliverability paleogeographic setting despite
outcrop sound analogue data base
different diagenetic overprint.
learning about deep gas improve gas migration and
thermogenic gas
medium impaired well performance circulation in the subsurface and saturation predictive model i.e.
saturation
improving predictive model migration paths
geothemal learning from new data about
existing estimate is inaccurate leading to improve predictive model
gradient medium deep fluid circulation and
wrong predictive modelS integrating new results
distribution improving predictive model
finding artesian improve predictive model
medium impaired heat storage high water flow rates and
flow integrating new results

improve predictive model by

large drilling hazard manageable, permanent learning from deep HC circulation
acquiring HC samples and better
hydrocarbon low stop of drilling activities, possible in the subsurface and improving
imaging/quantifying source rock
occurrence negative social impact predictive model
Fluid Flow

within deep stratigraphic units

improve predictive model by

small learning from deep HC circulation
drilling hazard manageable, temporary acquiring HC samples and better
hydrocarbon high in the subsurface and improving
stop of drilling activities imaging/quantifying source rock
occurrence predictive model
within deep stratigraphic units

constraining the geocemical improve hydrogeological and

composition of deep fluid to geochemical models with
geochemical mixing processes can occur between
prevent environmental and repeated sampling campaigns,
composition of shallow and deep high saline brines,
technical impacts, learning from including new data from new
deep medium scaling/corrosion/precipitation/dissolutio
deep circulation in the subsurface wells when available, including
geothermal n problems, Gas HC can be dissolved in
and improving predictive model production tests and monitoring
waters deep fluids
to assess the geothermal P/T/chemistry evolution in
potential of deep targets surrounding areas (Moscariello et al. 2020)
Decision Analysis
Logical, evidence-based decisions with the intent of improving the probabilities for
successful outcomes.

Shall we drill a well?

Where is the best location to place the well?

 Decision Analysis

Witter et al. 2019

Example of probability density functions for permeability and temperature scenarios in a geothermal project
Geothermal Potential Assessment Methods

One of the main questions in geothermal resource assessment is the estimation of the
quantity of resource that can be extracted and the duration of the exploitation at economical
conditions.

The geothermal potential of a site can be divided into thermal energy and electrical power
outputs, which can be extracted from the geothermal fluid
 Surface Thermal Flux (or Heat in Place, GRINGARTEN, 1978)
The method of Surface Thermal Flux or Heat in Place is based on the calculation of thermal energy that can be transmitted from the subsurface to the surface by
conductive heat flow. This method can be usually employed if the available information is limited to temperature and flow rate of thermal springs. The natural
thermal power (P) is the obtained value from the equation

qw=Q∙ρCw ∙(Tw-T0)

Qw: Thermal Energy discharged at the surface

Q: Flow rate (l/s)
ρ: density of the fluid
Cw: Heat Capacity of the fluid
Tw: Temperature of the fluid
T0: Dead-state temperature (usually takes as per 15˚C)

This method can be applied for a simple development scheme for heating project, consisting in producing geothermal water without reinjection at depth. In this
case the water would be produced at constant temperature as long as the resource is available and the pressure conditions are sufficient for the production to
be sustained
 The Volume Method (MUFFLER and CATALDI, 1978)
The volume method is one of the key methods applied, e.g. by the USGS, as a standard
approach, to assess the production potential of identified geothermal systems.
The heat generation potential depends on the thermal energy present in the reservoir, its
volume, temperature and physical conditions.
In the volume method, the thermal energy, also called heat in place, is calculated as:

qR=ρCwV∙(TR-T0)
qR: Thermal energy in the Reservoir
Ρ, Cw: Density and Heat Capacity of the fluid
V: Volume of the reservoir
TR, T0: Temperature in the Reservaoir and at some reference temperature (i.e. 15˚C)
The Volume Method
The thermal energy that can be extracted at the wellhead is given by:

qWH=mWH (hWH-h0)
mWH: extractable mass
hWH: Enthalpy of the produced fluid
h0: Enthalpy at some reference temperature (i.e. 15˚C)
The Volume Method

The wellhead thermal energy is then related to the reservoir thermal energy by the recovery factor, Rg, which
was defined

Rg=qWH/qR
In general it is possible to produce many times the original volume of fluid from the reservoir in order to
recover the thermal energy from the reservoir rock.

Rg from operating geotehrmal fields usually ranges between 0.05 to 0.2

The Volume Method
The electric power generation potential from an identified geothermal system depends on the
thermal energy, qR, present in the reservoir, the amount of thermal energy that can be
extracted from the reservoir at the wellhead, qWH, and the efficiency η with which that
wellhead thermal energy can be converted to electric power

Once the reservoir fluid is available at the wellhead, the thermodynamic and economic
constraints on conversion to electric power are well known, therefore it is possible to assess
the electric power generation potential
The Exergy Method (DI PIPPO, 2008)
From estimates of Rg and measurements of reservoir volume and properties, the Exergy E,
(DiPippo, 2005), referred to as the available work WA for a geothermal reservoir, can be
determined as:

E=mWH∙[hWH-h0-T0∙(SWH-S0)
SWH: entropy of the produced fluid
S0: entropy at some reference temperature
 The Exergy Method for power production
• The electric energy We , for a given period of time
(typically 30 years) is then determined through
multiplying the exergy over the same period of time
by a utilization efficiency, ηu, which is generally
well-constrained for a reservoir of a specified fluid
state and temperature

We=E∙ ηu
Source: Williams et al. 2008
How to get the needed parameters?
• Reservoir temperature:
• In-situ measurement in boreholes
• Geochemistry:
• Geothermometers
• Saturation Indexes
• Giggenbach Plot
How to get the needed parameters?
Reservoir volume:
The difficulty of developing accurate estimates for the volumes of unexploited geothermal reservoirs varies
depending on the geologic setting and the availability of data from exploration and development drilling.

Many geothermal reservoirs are dominated by fracture porosity, which can be characterized by high
permeabilities but relatively low fluid volumes. In addition, fracture permeability is sensitive to relatively
rapid (in geologic time) temporal variations in the state of stress and fluid chemistry, and this can lead to
heterogeneous permeability distributions within the fracture-dominated reservoirs
Estimates of reservoir volumes in the new assessment are derived from production histories, drilling results,
chemical tracer tests, and exploratory geological and geophysical investigations.
How to get the needed parameters?
Reservoir volume:
In some cases information on a green geothermal system is limited to geologic field
observations, the temperature, flow rate and chemical composition of thermal springs (if
any).

In such cases the understanding of the fault architecture and extension of the fault zone can
provide information about the lateral extent of the mains upflow corridor (e.g. 500m).

Additionally, the reservoir fluid temperature relative to the background geothermal gradient
defines the maximum depth of circulation
How to get the needed parameters?
Reservoir volume:
 How to get the needed parameters?

Reservoir volume: The greatest uncertainty in the estimated reservoir volume for a range front fault system
lies in the lateral extent of the reservoir along strike.
In green fields only field observations can help constraining that, in particular by geophysical methods and/or
structural observations, or by comparison with similar and well-explored geothermal fields, possibly close-by.
In brown-fields the upper end of possible along-strike extents can be defined by the production performances of
other wells.
As preliminary assumption we can consider the default along-strike extent of a fault-hosted geothermal
reservoir ranges from 1 to 5 km, with a most likely extent of 2 km.
The vertical extent can be taken by either conceptual models, geophysical constraints of by the max depth of
wells in nearby areas.
 How to get the needed parameters?
Geothermal Recovery Factor: Hydrothermal systems capable of generating electrical power require the presence
of both high temperatures and locally high permeabilities
Although the volume method provides a means of estimating the heat content of a geothermal reservoir, it does not
explicitly predict the reservoir permeability.
The presence of permeability adequate for production is based on the existence of a geothermal anomaly (for example,
hot springs, flowing wells, anomalously high heat flow) and the assumed recovery factor, which incorporates an
estimate of the effective reservoir permeability and porosity.
However it is well observed in different geothermal fields that the majority of the flow usually is produced by a small %
of permeable fractures.
Therefore, assuming an homogenous permeability for a whole reservoir might lead to wrong production estimation
 How to get the needed parameters?
• Geothermal Recovery Factor:
Distribution of flow capacity across the reservoir
permeable volume for fractured reservoirs
Williams, 2008
It is clear how an homogeneous permeability values is
not able to represent the real world
Therefore we need to take into account the heterogeneity
in distribution of fracture properties such as permeability
As a guide, Rg for fracture-dominated reservoirs is
estimated to range from 0.08 to 0.2, with a uniform
probability over the entire range.
For sediment-hosted reservoirs this range is increased
from 0.1 to 0.25.
 HOW TO PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER???????
Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves
• identifying the characteristics necessary for a resource to exist;
• identifying and ranking the data that inform such characteristics in a given geographic area, or
Fairway;
• systematically combining the disparate datasets to yield an internally consistent probability map of
resource regions (Plays) that have a greater or lesser probability for a resource to exist

The resource probability map is then used to define an assessment program that can most cost-
effectively identify the viable resources within the Fairway.
General flowchart
for geothermal
resources play
analysis
(Lautze et al., 2017)
The data types used in the probability modeling to
indicate the probability/likelihood of geothermal Heat,
Fluid, and Permeability. The numbers in parentheses
indicate the relative ranking of reliability, from 1 (low)
to 10 (high). Data types are color-coded: brown for
surface geologic features; red for geophysical data;
and blue for groundwater data. (Lautze et al., 2017)
An example from HAWAII (Lautze et al., 2017)
Map of the
Puna region
with
indication
of the Rift
zone and
volcanic
vents
associated
to the fault
structures
An example from HAWAII (Lautze et al., 2017)

Residual gravity
anomaly, reflecting
primarily
variations in
crustal density
with high residual
gravity indicating
dense intrusive
magma.
An example from HAWAII (Lautze et al., 2017)

Water well
temperatures
An example from HAWAII (Lautze et al., 2017)

Fluid chemistry with

focus on Cl/Mg ratio.
A Cl/Mg ratio above
that of seawater (i.e
>15) strongly suggests
Mg depletion has
occurred within a
hydrothermal system
An example from HAWAII (Lautze et al., 2017)
Fluid chemistry with
focus on SiO2
concentration.
Silica is abundant in
rocks and has a
temperature-
dependent solubility;
therefore elevated
silica in groundwater
has been widely used
as a thermal indicator
Probability modelling

This method is based on the correlation between the different data towards a common resource
quality (Heat, Permeability or Fluid).
e.g. if we take a specific location (i.e. a region of 200x200m), low gravity values (z1) are associated
with intensely fractured areas with hot vents, high Cl/Mg (z2) indicates thermal anomalies
A weight is attributed to each parameter (w1, w2)

∑=w1z1+w2z2
Indicates the favourability of having high heat condition in that specific location
Probability modelling

To convert favourability to probability zi(x) is a transformed and

scaled real-number,
&$
form of data type i;
%
Probability of one wi is a weight that
quality in a certain Pr(𝑥) = 1 + 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝑤! − - 𝑤" 𝑧" (𝑥) reflects the relative
location x "#$ importance of data type i
Favourability
to the quality of interest;
and m is the number of
data types present at
Probability of the location x
geothermal
resource in a 𝑃𝑟𝑅 𝑥 = 𝑃𝑟𝐻 𝑥 + 𝑃𝑟𝑃 𝑥 + 𝑃𝑟𝐹(𝑥)
certain location x
Probability modelling

Probability confidence

&$
the quality factor qi
%
Confidence of one (0 < qi ≤ 1) is assigned
quality in a certain C(𝑥) = 1 + 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝑤! − - 𝑤" 𝑧" 𝑞" (𝑥) by the expert to data type
location x "#$ i after blind consultation

C𝑅 𝑥 = 𝐶𝐻 𝑥 + 𝐶𝑃 𝑥 + 𝐶𝐹(𝑥)
Results
Multi-Criteria Analysis

All the subsurface and surface information available have to be compline to identify if and where a
geothermal project can be developed

Locating and quantifying the geothermal potential (heating and/or power) can be achieved by
implementing favourability maps by considering the influence of several geological, energetic (and
economic criteria if available) on the feasibility of constructing a geothermal plant in a given locality.

Selecting favourable sites for geothermal power development is a

geospatial multi-criteria decision problem
 Favourability maps
Favorability maps are based either on simple spatially
overlaying the different datasets available or by giving a
weighted score to each parameters and combining the
different scores to produce a favourability score map at
any given location.

The favourability score is the weighted sum of individual

criteria scores, which measure the degree to which
criteria are satisfied by input data. Identifying areas with
high favourability scores narrows the regional scope for a
detailed estimate of power generation potential.
Flowchart of mapping geothermal favourability.
Geological and economic criteria are represented by
input layers which can consist of several data sets.
Input layer weighting and summation produces
summary layers. Summary layer weighting and
summation produces the favourability map (Palmer,
2018)
 An example from Canada
Geothermal
Favourability Map of NE
British Columbia

Geology Temperature

Transmission lines

Geothermal Gradient Palmer-Wilson, 2018

 An example from Switzerland

Conceptual cross-section through the Swiss plateau showing potential targets for deep
geothermal energy production. (Valley, 2020)
An example from Switzerland
Stratigraphic column below the
swiss plateau and interpreted
hydro- and mechanical stratigraphy.

mechanical stratigraphy based on

the formation stiffness and
brittleness is necessary to run
stress models and assess formation
fracturing hence estimate
permeable structures
 An example from Switzerland Hydrogeological data collection
Fault model from public including karstic springs and
3D model dataset thermal and mineralized springs

Conceptual regional,
intermediate and local
flow field in a basin
An example from Switzerland

Heat Data
An example from Switzerland

Earthquakes catalog 3D stress model

An example from Switzerland

∑$
!"# &! '!
𝐼!"#$ = ∑$
!"# '!
 An example from Switzerland

5-8: Stress Field

1-4: Heat
 An example from Switzerland
Favourability 120˚C
9-11: Hydrogeology

Favourability 80˚C
Contacts:
Luca Guglielmetti
luca.guglielmetti@unige.ch
Rue des Maraichers 13, 1205 – Geneva
https://www.unige.ch/ge-rgba/welcome/