os Ss = DOES THE 21st CENTURY A ee Ge) =PDOES THE 21st CENTURY BELONG TO CHINA? KISSINGER AND ZAKARIA VS. FERGUSON AND LI THE MUNK DEBATE ON CHINA EDITED BY RUDYARD GRIFFITHS AND PATRICK LUCIAN‘coppuant AD Oi sures Founaation ony Kusingor itor copright AB 21 fon Giger David Cater cagvight £6 a Fe Geiger ‘All ante reserved tpant ofthis punicaton maybe seproaiced o assumed m ay frm orb AE eons lations oF mechanic scsi pRctoceying rBcerdng, o a? formation erage and tial stom wothout peruse tp lig om ts plik, Distrmatn of tis sorte alton vio the fternat ar ey other ana thot the permission of theyll Loge Plsesa donot pata nelson pracy of (ubmieuted aatenat purchase oly autnorzedejeruealc eatens Wo spereclete Your Ngpor ct the autherse™s HBS ‘Ti ction gable 2011 bp Luo seats ease, sate 3 “oreo oie Does the 2st counury belo to Cana” ee Mea digats on Chine / Hoary Ricongor Tet abl ostoaky uyard Grins aa Fae Lica, rue sean debates) 2. Chisa se” stor "als century. Lesage. Hees ‘ose h Grit. Raspord Lacan Pteich THO DOLLA A A.A A LOGA A A AA CONL-AN0-5 rary of Congrese Conta Rusher: 2595369 cover en: atyte snewecaae arads Counc! Cong de te ‘nna ars coune. farina Seine ons os Ase CONTAND 6s schoowlades Sr bur haan! soporte ox pabaing program the Cs Cousot te, te Onis Arts Com and th Govaramaat of nade veep he Cazes Beck PastlvTRODUCTION BY PETER MUNK (tho evoning of ne 17, C011, wo old cur eovonsh Mick Dobsto at Tocniose™s Rey Thomann tal, Tho autor, wich soe 2,700, wa fled to capacity, and hore rere thaconds of poole following the dsbto online. was tiling forme tobe pare cg cueat tat in ony tree years hs captured a wide and grosing audience acreze Cenads and bezond. ‘When wo eared holding thoce debts theo yours ago, twas our ntti to bring th best mids to Toronto grapple wh sms crucial iemoefecing tho weld, Our goa] acta claves the qulty of dacussian on imparaetglebel matera for the benefit cf Canadian, tn proud to soy tht trash the work and efforts c the Aurea Poondation Bosra we have ben able = achiove tis, andere I especially wont to credit Rue Grits forbs vidon ard management. Oa hne 17 be once asain ected as host and rmoderator of the debate, Tings stays belisved that clay is bet achieved by intng the fines thiakces to speak ous whe thay do nct sea eye-toroye, Those is uehng wrong with describing nd discussing crucial iss, bet debuting them is bater. The werldis o diferent from any cher abject in thet we can uke more sense fit by viewing thom diferent sales Tilia the bes ap to acioue tis cant is traagh format that challenges inforenod and ayticulatethinhers to go bayou toling us What Mey Kew, oF nk toy kaos Telking about the tines in ica we lr is ove thin, but tc standup and defend ideas when hey ae being challenged by equal! inicrmed and ariculteoprenen tho tink ‘hop Know bation, i anher. Which ore wha! the debatote did on the avening of fine 17 st Roy Thomson Hal. The topic was Chine. Win th Rost have tracinally focisod fn the Nour Bas, end understandebly 20, but he lst hwo decades compelled us ta ncresagly ten aur etenon tothe Fer Boe. China haa seemingly come eat cf nomre to pla an important eccucmic and paiial role around the world [rwamie™s out cf nethore, cf couse, Chinate™%s sro sarted with tae courayS6™s shit othe mavket fconomy in 1978. Even tang this shit nto wocenat, an average grr cf 10 porcent por anaum by ths early 1980s yas co mmpresive as to sam aborcat a uncal, Wh new-foind economic avengih, and aspacelly ice Wey gained tha trengh sta time when Burope andthe United Ststes were pereeied ta be lnang this, Chine hae ala ‘akon i place on te international sage as lending reliical puver. The debet in Toreuta was aba determining whether cr not Cima willbe able suai hat mexexmun and bocoms to dominart alebal frca cf the 2st century. Ye were privileged to have four ce most insight] Hunkers onthe sabect, is, fet tly tumbled to introduce Or, Henry Kisinger, who hed graciously accepted oar incision to pavtiyate,Thoreisnd€™ ouch} could sup abot De. Kissinger tal veaders nldnseM already Maw. He ie wt only a belie student and teecher cf Liscxy, bat rove importantly, be isa maker of history. We rewember hin for his vole in opsning up China forthe West wher he was « member of Presiden: Richard Maronae™s cabinet as Sectotary o Stat, Ha receind the Nebel Peace Prica in 1973 for hs atznorsinary ark onthe interascnal age, and he recaived the Preslonnl Medal cf Frendcm in 1977 ‘That evens we were wimessne bt ct hincry aswell J lenrued tat Dr. Kisager bad never taken part ina public debate, sos really was especial cccasion and an Donan forall cus wt Tho Mink Debates, Ho cacno to Teroto eliowing tho rooentgublcaton ef hi momenta beck, Oa Ciiza, wn as angi agains ho rerohaion, “chung Or Kiger 73 the young rng intrastional ar! Faroed Zahara, [am sure most readers aye oon Fareed as he host Fareed Zakaria: GPS, CAMGE™= flagship groszam on international ars. Named by Paveiza Poti as ons oth top 10 alebl thinkers, he i alr the edtcr-at-lurse for Tima magazine, and the ahr cb a number of books, inching the bossellos The Future of Freedom and Tho Past~Amorican Wort, kt two ago o ronty-cight ho was oetor oth pradisins aural Porelga Aili. He hen vical on to Newsivees, vier he wets @ minber f woard-winive ericles, wchuing lis fancns Octdber 2001 yece, d€The Paice t Reg! ‘Way Do Thay Hate Uae. find ist your Ferved eared an Brony norton fo hie utorsiow wih ChinateM™e Frenier Wea Iabio, Arguing for ho ronlition wae Wall Ferguson, win tock pat in tho fst Mule Debato in 2008, Noe nly is Pefoeeo Porguson a isiguidhod economic hitrian a farverd Usieersty, bes alan the bostelng aur a mimsraie books. Hs Lae, cated Cipulvedon: The Wast aad the Rest, wall be pablcbed ia Neath fnosca in November 2011 Profoce: Porgusoni€™s understanding of tho ork aconony ie mad accossblo by bi ile in bringing tat knolodgo to = wid autionce, Recognising the ley facts Yat drive econcmic gout, hi hess a tha Cena posses ll thas nacessery to propel it iernainsl preeminence, What added special puny tothe evening vas ‘hat Preface Pevgon ie Dr, Kisdnear86M™s oficial bioerarber. Taleo welecmed Ds, Disk Dacha i, eho joined Mallon tho pro do, Not only doas ho linc atistely the Factor thst havo mae China ap economic powerhenso, ho ls brought «unique possyoctive and persanal hnaplodge of Cina Hs ollahcod a2 spent a Sichuan protice, a2 «result he parcats being displaced to he couteyside dosing the Culmral Revehon, Under such condions he managed t earn hs dectorate in economics at Harvard Univensty and curently lds a number cf teaching postions in ‘ho Unied Stites and in is hams cova. Ha isthe Dractr ofthe Center for Chins the World Economy tthe Tdnghia Uirocsty Schnol cf Beanies and Menegomet a Beiing, He is alsa a delosate tothe Being PeoplnteM Congres, one of three academic embers of the enoneterypaley commatioe f the Cental Beth of Chin, and a smanber ofthe Warld Beonomis Pam in Davos Then contin fat yous enjoy this printed vorsion of thoes oxcing flow hore Peter Mink Fennde, the Aurea Fondation Teor, iy 2021Does the 21st Century Belone to China? Prot Niall Ferguson and David Li Con: Henny Kissinger and Fareed Zakaria June 17, 2011 ‘Toronto, Canada‘THE MUNK DERATE OM CHINA IOvARO GRFFTIS Ladies and gentlemen, welocme to Roy Themen Fil in Tercno, Canada. We aro bere fr the Mink Debate cn China, My name is Ryard Gifts, BE™n, the covergmizer ofthe Mik Debetos along with my colleague, Potick Lacan, and it is my pridlegs to be your modersior once again. ‘Fest [want to welceme th trusands of people watching tis debate aie, live ca the Itenet, ca glcbeandmal.com and muriebates.com. KET terre to have vou as apart of hoe proceedings. A warm bello alzo othe millns of poople watching, reading, and Iseing to this debate, everywhere frm the Ausra Broadeasing Corporation doen wader to C-SPAN treushow the Unted States, to the Peonledé™s Daiy Online i China, and trough ou icteratonal media partnership with the Plaancial Times cf lendon end is prestigious China Condon research uni. Hella, to, 2 Canadians coastto-caas, who are lisering and watching eververe fam CBC Radit€TNs [eas program tthe Canadian Piblio Mikes Channel (PAO), and on the notwerk whore Thos a daly telovsin show, Business News Network (B00, 16s grt to have you as part of ths debate, And finally, as leek around tis al whic Js filed to capacity, RETNA lice to welcome the 2,709 pecple who have ceme cu x a secend time fo the Mak Debates at Roy Thansoa Hall. yeryee aswclated wih this prajact ks you for your Signore the single wea hein this sori, whinh is dednated to cveatng opperunies lke his, whore we can bate he big geopalical isu tut ae changing Canada and changing the ward. The sucess tis debate seres is abit’ to bring to Toronte seme cf the worldae™s stares tikors, would not be possble witout tho phlantropiscreainty and goneresty of two invuals EY the all of you to jin me in a read cf applause for our fess, he covfanders ofthe Mink Debates Peter and Melanie Mink, Eravo you twa Wade re grin to keep at dia ‘Now, fr the mement we have all boon waiting fr. To have the motion befre ust Be it roslved the 21st contury’ wil belong to China! no, all wo need is our debaters cone stage. Lees hae a big rund of applause for the tyo debaters who Wil be arguing fr the maton, Nall Fergus. aed David LN, Je@€%S yeleome dee formidsble opponents Faroed Zakaria and Dr, Honry Hisinger. ‘Nill Fergisnn is ell oi to dhe fad wih the Mink Debates During the frst dchate ix 2008, he and Chios Krauhammar bested current Nasonal Seurity Couo member Samantha Paver and tho Inte Richard Hilbrocke on the moon Be #trecclved the world ise oxfor place with a Republican in tho Wie Haze, That was avery pied abate. Since 2008, Nall Ferguson has added w his rat internationally best-seling boaks wit the publication of The Ascent of Mozay’ A Plaancial History of che forld snd Civilization: Tho Wast and the Rast. Fe belds a variety of resigns professips and lecresips everywhere fom Oxia University to Harvard Universithe was only a four-year-old bay. Tventy-egh years later he received a PLD. kom Haryard Lhiversiy. He snow ene of rly ree academic members of the Monetary Faoy Advisory Commits of the Central Bak of Cine. One ication ofthe kay roe that he plays representing a new generation cf hough leadership ix China is ist Devi, sn eccneenis, has mare ta ee mile lowers.en the Chinese equialent cf Tir Fareed Zekara is familiar to many Canadians, Hei€™s tho host andthe drnng frce behind CRNBE™Ss flagship intornatinal ears program, Fareed Zakaria GPS You aye alan read His cclume in Time magacine, whare he is edite-alarge, adhe yes fv the Washington Passe He isthe autor of eternally acclaimed beaks The Future of Freedom: Iiveral Democracy at Home and Abrosd and the recenty wpéated Post-Amoricen World: Release 2.0 As you wil heer during tis abate, Pared is one of todava€™s mos thouehd and provecatve US. tinkers on AmericaseTNs role in the world and the effect of riche iternatinal powers, Fareed Zakaria, itis please to have you hers. ur final debater has plaved a cenval rele in global atts fr the last haf-centry. He has been honcered with te Nobel Peace Frize fr is public service, and was preseated wit he Presifental NedalcfPreedom, He isthe cele indcual hare today who can interpret Chnat€™%s rise, given His wiaue canton brining China back into dhe commiviny of aos ater is Culowal Revlon. Aad, participating in bis Sra publi debate cn China or any cer subject, he makes biter again. Ladin and sentiemen, please weleame to the Manz Debates the Sith secretary cf sate ofthe United States Dr. Henry Hissioger. ‘Now, logs brifly run trough how th debato wil und, Each of or debetors wil avo sx minules fr the opening satoments to make thi case for and against tho roten, Sar th cpening satemeats wel re gcng tohave ow debaters cress-ecmine each oberiO™s views and cpsons and ten wea€Mre going to brag the audience into he conversion. Te wll Fave questions fem noble pecple in tho audience, which incutos sucens fom the Mink Schoo of Gibal Ars, and fray wo wil have a raft cf quzsions rom ow om web se, Pacebosk, and Triter. ich In weave into the conversa, So how di the euonce veto before coming into this debate? Did you belisv the Zit cent wil belong to China? ‘The numbers ar interesting: 99 percent below the century coud be osmed by Cina, 40 percent ved agains the mation, and 21 pervent are undecited 46” sn, tereae™s a suing vote in play already Tam geiog to call co Nill Pergusaa to get us sated, uu Feaguson: Thane you Rodyard, and tare vou, ladies and geatlemen. [belie the 2ist century wil belong to Cina because most centuries have belonged to Chica, The 18th and 20th centuries wore tho exeptins.Fighioen ofthe lest twenty centres sa China as by some margin to largest sccrcmy inthe weal Letme begin wi sane demograntios and eccemics: China is mare cé 2 continent than it is a ccunty. A Sth of amanity ices there. bis forty des the Sze of Canada. I China were crpanized lke Europe it woud have tobe died up into ninety natinstates. Today thors are eleven cos in China with a poplin of mere than sx mail. ‘TrareteMs coly ene ctv in Barope with a population of mare than six malin, and tharje™s London. There are eleven Brcpean Union sates with populations cles han Sx rill bdr years Chinal€™%s eoancmy has arom by after of very nearly ton, and the Inornaianal Mesetry Fd (MF) recently projected Gat it wll be the largest, corey i he werd fre vearsie™ time. HEM alreaty ten over the Lnted States as a manufacnrer and asthe weldi€™s bigest aucmacble market. And the ‘demand for cars in China will increase by tentold in the years ta come. China will be using one fifth of all global eners‘regarding the aumber cf new patents granted, and in a recent survey by the et ASS ESE RS EEE, Ok ae eee oe. ‘ecryearmod sneeats in the regis of Shang came tp a mathematical atainment witha acre of 600. The United Stata ranked tea~Eth with a aoore of 437, ‘Yous€H be clad to hear that Canada got a seae cf 627. Thatte™s beter than te United States but act good encuch. Ladies and genlemen, ige™s not easy beng a biegrapher debating against his oy subject WWE™ a line hi a James Bosyll had to debate against Dr. Jebasza. So ‘what [propose to do in a dplemais way io ty to show to you that Dr. Kisinger and perhaps Fareed Zakaria are, trough no fut of thir osm, on tho ure sid of his bare. Lat me quote tram Dy. Mesngerde Ss oustanding new hoak en te ops of Cha: 4€3CHinage MS quoct ev equal partershi with the Uiited Sues nolanger tha cutsred clam ofa unerable county; it is ncreashely te reality backed by foancial and econemic capaciies 4€ Or lead aute from Pareed Zakaviate™s excellent boo: The Fost-Amerioan World: shina ica comtry wives sole dwarfs the Unied States Ctna ener for snc a€ HE™S facinating tattoo two great gecpdica tnkers agree that Chna€™s ooonmis challenge isan a callengs tothe hegemony ofthe United Sites: Once ees Jetme quote Dr. Hisinger! ein explicit Amerioan projet to ergonize Ada an the hassef centring Chia a creating a bios of demncrais sates fr an Wedlogial crusade is nly © sucaed g€ He hepes, as be concludes in hs bok, fer peaneil cone(eluon. Fut he farsa repeat a what ppened a hundred years ago When the rise of Germany chailenged the predominance ofthe United Kingdom. Bi its not us about China fr me. The key © Chinaté™s dominance during the Zist center ultimately es ia the decline ofthe West. A Snancil evs caused by esoestve beroing and sbsdized gambling a fanal eve dt means he United Stats yll xen be spending mae a debt nterast than cn defence; apalial criss cexemplifed by a game of Rusian roles over the US. federal debt celine: and a meal criss persed by aleglare named, implaucbly, Weber, sending miscelaneces women pisures of His naked wan. The 21st cantar ill be Crade™S because an ojervight, oyer-leveraged, ojersezed America, rot mention 2 dstmedonl Europ, se ca te aide, Faw decades aga, President Rishard Niu understood tis pint sanar tan most GE, you can jus sep and nk: of what Would happen if anybody with a decent system of eoverament got conta f that mailand. Good God, thared@™ be ao power in the World tat could even ... Imean. vou put 200 malian Chinese to work under a decent syst and thy mil be the leaders ofthe werld.g€ [salute tho achiovement of ht administration in reopening Sino-Americanrelans in 1872, No one contributed more to that ashiavemeet than Henry Hisinger. Sol denge ad you to yte agai him, bur to ese favour of is cies analysis which places him and his pares in is beto firmly en the pro sido ofthe debate. [urge you © apport he rest, IOvARo GaFFTIS: Fareed Zakari, you eponing statement, please. Faneenzacana: Thank you very mock, Thas€™s a hard aot to fellow. My olen ts bate wl be to lower the average age of tis debating toam, and Tam going to try and do ‘hat ashes Tean witout alan loyerng the average TR wich ear is al ges w happen. So bear With me avd Henry wil eaect ll he mises fale 46” clung, 1 hops, fring tis biographer, which [tk shud be one of he frst tops Twas actully litle yeevied about having to debate With Henry because he ina legendary genus, but part of debating is Loring to the ober side, and Tvemember a ry ‘hat yas tld to me abour Hear. hs an example of what jounalss ell 4€ctco good to check A€ so Hehe never fact-checked it The sory goes lke tis Heary Hisiager, ‘as you know, has a legendary accent and friends of his who are German say, a¢0eH: has an accent even in German.a€ Apparently; Henry Kisdnger has an older brother whowant to make tree points about China Cina isnt ging tobe the dominant power dhring the 21st cantry. The century isnot gong to belong to China because of tse facers: eccncndc,palical, and geopeliical. The frst face is eccacenis 2€” one thing weave realized over th cous ofthe past decades is tat aching goes w io a stsight Ine Serever, Chins leds lc itis abet to inherit the werd, bur Japan locked like that fer a wie, too. was tho second largest ecenomy inthe werd: [de™t know ‘oe many of you remember all ofthe tales we were tld abcur how the werld was ering © beceme Japanese, We were all gig t be eating sh 2€” well, guess we are all ating subi "A but the rex of hat prodnin ding€™ que werk ox 1 you tink abort, mos Asan gers ve gronm at arate of abou 9 percent a vear fr trent to treatfve years And then they shit donmrard to arate of6 or 5 percent Yen not pradisting any hind of Chinese evash Tam simpy saying tat hia yl lly at lay of large numbers ily and then vegress at cee pat 0 a slows srowth ra, pertaps a litle bi later than ober natoas because it isa much larger county. 1b alm Werth pontig aur that thre are massive ineiciansis but nto the Chinese stem, Thay haye a haze property bubble. Tha growth is highly inefficient. Chinage™s foreign direct inyasenont each manth is equ to kiide™s yearly fren direct iestment and sil Cina growsenly to pareentage pois far than ia, chor words i you tink about the quay of Chinese growth, i265 not as impressive as it eppears Bis masive invesment, a huge number of sports, cight-ane bihwars, a high-speed val aides beig bul ar if yeu lod at yh you are geting ou of tin terms che reten ca investment, tisk as mpresive ‘The Urecenty publchod a ropertinsiatng that China is ering to ave a demographic eclapse over te next twenty~fte years The popu wil decroase by 400 nila pecple, There isco pct ia aman hisery when 2 daninant over i the werd was also declining demogranticaly kt simply doesnt€™: happen. And i yea want to Jock at what @ comty in demographic decline los Ike, lok at Jepan and ask verse how power tis ‘jen if China ere the largest cocnomy’ the weld, haze mumbers are based an smating called Seqpurchasks power pany. 46 Chinage™S GOP becomes nated becaus, fer example, the cost of «haircut in Boing is less than the cot of ene in Terento, Bu international power doos€™ depend on the price of a haus, it depends foreign a,c, icreaatonal vestments and aircraft carers, and rel, bard cwrency is reauved fr all of tose tines and dt dusts theoe mumbers sity. Tei€™. say tat China doos become the largest ecencmy in tho world, Dos it have the police cepaciy to exercise the kind of leadership tht is nooded? Remember, Japan was the second largest cnomy’in he Word fer decales, and [ding one any kindof grand hegemenie desien. Fllisal capacity i required wo be able o exercise that upe cfleadershib. Heard6%s ging to talk mare abou hese isms bur | want telegraph them by saviag tat Chia isa county ned by a pla ysem tha isi 2tis unclear whothor or not ho next suscosion tht China goes trough wl lock arvthing lke tho currant one. China has not slved te base problem of what itis ening to do when i creates a mide class and how the government respend wth agpicatons cf dese people, hen Taian Weat tweugh a sidar process thre Was a wrist to democracy. When South Korea went trough it hare was atransion to democracy. Those trenstons were not easy periods They wore fel bloc and chasis ones, and, a5 al ia reminded us China isa very large cousry and a very comple: county. Imagine this ka ef pelea stag’ and social insabity i har process (Chinade™Ms ral: HE™) make one pint abeut he gecpliios, and again, Henry wil tll mere abou that Poco Ike to alc abou the vse af Ada. Ize up ia hala} hore is no ssh ee ks ae a, ee ne ee ee, A ee eo Leiovano caRrTHS: Dai Li, yous e next, DAvOU! Goed evening, ladies nd gonlemon. As the ony debater from China lam extremely handicapped because we do not advocate debsts in my oultre, o in the educational sam. epeclly not debates aga an elderly sage. Teday I-yould ree yu to read each ef the besaling bask wwiten by my’ ac~debater= Thy’ are mash botir a xplening the tugs amount of change in China ver the past decedes, os well as the mexntan of challenges choad, as Farced tus just explained to you By thir Danks 46° tay, Tam adieoating their pints would Ike to share tree single points with you thay can be summarized by threo keywords. Tho frst keyword is energy. Iwoud argue that ho changes wo fave winessed oyr the pax decades in Cina are cy hay dane at mast We are sacng ceninund change in liza. Why? Eis because there is energy. Thareges ney energy it Chinai€™S gus tank, energy fr continued changs, whethor 826s economic or poical. Why? is because the changes came frm a spectacular clash of csaleations ecyecn China and dhe West as vecenly a5 170 years ago! The clach Wasa teal fale fr the Chinese. I yas a big ued fr us, ad has been remembered from generain t generation. Our chidren a sil learning these esses today 2a Sat hula areated a he reacton and overreaction i Chinese svt. i Crags Hisar, inaliving the anding af the Chinese Comnmuris ary nny years ago That vas mare abou esablishng a svacg and independent China than screadiog a proletaat revlon all oer the world, So afer the fowding of the Republic, sito years ag0, Wele™e s2en ayereacton fam the Communit Fart, and item th government, i te erm af the Great Leap Forward, ith fan of the Cutwal Revlon g©" nether of which imorored lief the Chinese, nether of wich advanced the iteres ofthe Chinese. Thats unl hre-diree vears ago when bigger changes oxcured, ‘wich we called Refrm and Opening Up. ‘Reform implies gradual improvements i cu insinsions, whether they are pellical er esoncmic. Opecing Up refers to leaing whatever is best in the Test hitally, pecole deng€™ below in the message of reform and opening wp, just as Fareed was saving. Bulow great leer Dong Wacpng sid, #€aN debates Jct do i.g€ [guess Dong ‘Bacping woudase™: be a fan of he Mul: Debates. He would be a fan. perhaps. of Nike. st doit deed, the las tt years of change have demonstrated the power cf reform and opening wp. Yong people tay are no sitisied with he progress we have made, They are eager to push fx more reform, mare opening wp, using he power of ‘he Iternet So, thatis the frst message 46° energs. The energy isl tere, io te gas tank. ‘Bit where aro we crn to? Thats ™s te destination? The destination relates tthe srcand keyword renal. The destination ie the rail of hat eet chilean fom 1,500 years ago, the Teng Drnasy. Revival ect revenge agains the West, rt ennlate the success cf the Liited States inthe abecute dominance of he weld, Rater, the resil of« pasos, sl condent, cpon-minded cilzaten sich as tho Tang Dynasty. That sho dosinatin ofthis change, ubich i a mos halfway trou ‘Tee third keyword I yeuld lke shure wit vous face. Whit kind ofafuence wall China have ia the world ninety years fem now? [woud lice to argue thatthe ‘nuance wil be mut~dimensinal, Fr, Chinai€™s emergence has given bape to thos who lve inthe peer regis ofthe word, ssh as Ace and oer underdeveloped retices. The pecple who lie in these regis say to themselves, €qChina has been pocr. China as been ccastaned in natal resources. China can make & surely we can aswell So.we are ging hope © many of the Werid#6™"s poor. Thad the dese densa. ‘Tee secend dimension of infuence is dur Crinai€™s emergence gives us an alternative model for socal and eccnomisinsitaios: diferent rom thse in the West. diferentSee ee ae ees pple iene elena ‘sich China flocking for peace and ollboraton. Te saw tis over the pas two anda bal ears dre the elbelSoancial ors So overall Lwoni€™ impose my concluson wea you wuld ike ask you to draw your orm conclusions: conimurus change wth enerey. revialcé a great celica, and a poste international influence. You draw your osm conclusions. Tran ye, piovano carrTis Dr. Hinge. vewerssuser For semobody iho was bout wp spesking German, sx minos are barely enough to peak a word. My ecleaguos have spoken ebout the magnitude of China respect ts wemendious achievement aed ecbody Wadd deny G6" ia fact, Tyoud afin g€" what Giza has achieved in he forty years tit have been able to chsarve i Grooty, Bt tho ise before uss whether or not the ist century belongs to China. [woud say that China well be proocowpiod with enormous problems demesically, and preaccuied With is mamediate cavrenment, diving the 2st century. And because of ths Ihave enermaus diel’ maging a yerld dewinated by Cra. Indeed, a il conclude, Tbebew tht the concept tut amy coe county wil dominate the werd isi sella misunderstanding ofthe werd in wich we now le. China hs acicved great tings acencmicaliy, bt aa a country thas to produce 2¢ mile jebs every year has to abecrb 6 mln people mening ino the cies every ‘year thas to deal with a oatng peplatin cf 160 to 200 milion. khas © accommodate a scciety in which the coasal regis ae a the level cf advanced cous wile the intaricr regions are atthe level cf wnderdavelopmect. And has to ancemmerat ll of tian a pole gst tht mut ala care of bath eeancanie change and pelioal ‘laptaton tht il ineviably rest fem the huge ewes involved in he economic change. Fram a gecpaliieal permeatie, China has hierielly heen suveundad by a group af seller compies ybich wore net indiiually able wo dreaton China, but wish, united, coda pose a treat to China Therefore, lisirisall, Chinese freien peli can be descrbved as barbarian management China has never had to deal with a ward of counties cf appresinately equal syergih So adjust aha world isi itself profound challenge t China, Which zoy has fourteen counties ca its barders, sane of wich are anal butean prcect the aatcnaliy into China some of wich are large and Hiscricaly iniicant, so tat ary atemet by China m dominate the ward woud eve a count reaction tat yal be diasbous lr the peave ofthe yer ‘As forthe quote that Nall Pergusea a” wha of couse, is my biographer, se wil have the last werd no mater what ay 2€” used about the miliary containment of Chica, I would sy tht one of ou challenges is to accommodate the rights of Cina, One of Chinad€™s challenges i to accommodate iol toa werd in which ts not begemenil asi bas been fer eishteen othe last treat’ centris Soiflmay take the Iberty of resting the mation before ut th ime befor the word isnot wheter the 21st contry belongs to China, Ths isu> before the world is ‘whether or oct during he 2istcenary, as Cina mvdobiedly ges srenger. We ia the West can work with China. And the issue i als whether China can ere with us to reste an internatinal sructure in which, parkaps fr the frst tin in Hsery, arin sao has boon ncerpeated int an intornatenl syiom and srengthaned poace and progress Jk my bock, Lee that, based ca my experlence, the prospects are act cpimisc. Bu, onthe cher hand. we have never bad to deal with proieratin, eaircameat ceyborsp20e, and 2 wile st of hor prebloms that can be dealt wit nly one universal basis 1 conclusion i thar the issue is oct wither the ZIstcontey belongs to China, but whether we can make China belong ta mere wiversal conception inthe Zist conta. |RUDVARO GAFFTMS: A fascinating series of arguments have begun to ervstullize in this debate, and to keep it going I want to ask both teams of debaters to quickly respond to whatux Feasuson: My question to Fareed is fyou6%e right and China is ecg to repeat Japanese hist, just thnk what that means cansiteringJapant@™s much analler se and consiering Chinat@™s relatively low level of develepmen, as bot of you have pointed cu. Fyout€™re right and China is ging to re-enact Japand€™s econcmis Hisry, ‘hen it arely wil onn the Zit cenary. Because betre it lows dow ia the war that Japan as sce the late 1990s it will actieve an encrmeus share act cay of ecbal GOP but elo of global power, because unl Japan, China never lst is sxersignty trough the kindof miliary defeat tht Japan sufored in 1945. So both eseneisaly and secoclicaly, the prospect of China repeating Japanese sory shuld realy be ute a scary one Sor your sde ofthe debate rupvaso carris: Pareed? eneeo zaxana: The Japanese example simply Ilstrates hat nothing moves na sag ne. Countries pardouarly as they ascend the economic modervizaon scale, Si tat thoy have probloms, you lock atthe number of counts that have been able to got past but $12,000 per capita GOP over th lst 100 years its an astonishingly small number. Kis abou ve ‘Thare are alot cf comies that manage © do well 46” with base manufactring, the bepinangs cf he refcrm process the government geting out ofthe war che cerca. Th i urns out at every clement af the solely bast be medernized to move up ko the top ter tat South Hevea, Tian, Singapere, and Hug Heng have been, able to reach. [wud lke te pont cur simply tht China 26° with the economic, demograntc, pelical. and geopdliicalpecblems it faces 26° mist fed that tat ls perked of fconemic ament wil be somewhat rocky and camples. As Henry peated out it may require China © say internally focused and absorbed ia way that wil not allow i © reject encrmous begemeaic power. Tend duh that Chinas ging to have an encrmeus ecccy. Ldeng™ daub tat Cina ia going wo be an encemes player on de world stage, Te quesicn ia wilt ‘own the 2isceanay, wil it dominate? Aad Isr feral thse reasos i9€Ms nce ging to do ht. ruovaso Garrms: David. come back tothe Japanese example’ it was a sbject ca lot of debate. The vears cf GDP gronth the close ste co-erdiatin other econ, and rrave than tat he sens i dhe 195s dt Japan was alo lke China g€° a seco Wiha lot af hamegeneity, alot of enargy. Ve Ege Iapang€™%s recent past Cases seer fine? savour Let me respend to your question, and to Fareedd6™s points avd w Dy. Hsinzerd6%s pins altogether. You arguments are carect, These prints ae even srenger if wwe aro talking about China twenty or oven thirty years ago. Deco all hese claims, China has been grossing. China has bsen changing for tho past tty years. And my point is that tay 26% Chine, despite all de mounting tullenges teal changing Tes compare China and Japan. 1dong€™4 tink tat hare bad been any fandamental changss in Japan bofrs the collapse staring inthe early 1080s Ip China we do ‘see fundamental changes. Als, Japan has been Tearing fom China. would not argue dt Japan was ne of dhe primary cultres in de World where China is concerned, at Joast unl he spsctaclar francil crash tock place in Western countries (Ca Farcedgetls pint about the ecencer grout rat, fly agree tat an accra as large a China¥e™s ean never have double dit GOP grow indetitely. yl doy down, But whon te Uhied States was emoreing, it wai€™t groving nearly as fast as China i curently. The Uhitd Stats dowed doun Senicanly, long bere it becams eee ee ne ESUniversity of Toronta, thas he number of Chinese sdents sviving Ht the United States and ix Canada, These are sources of change, These kil ae learning. Sot do tink Chinsd€™s emergence wil be diforent frm that of he Uited Stato, and Talo thnk it wil net face the same problems s Jepan faced. ruovaso carrms: De, Hissnger, weld sou like to cir a rebutal? ewer assncte: That Cina is changing 4° that is madoubtedly the case. Fone compares what China locked like in 1971 to what it locks ise today, ithas changed plrsicaly and ithas changed demographically in a indamental way treagh the one chld per fay poly. The later has als, fn a way, changed the values Cina. I about birt years, there wl be enly abou so pecele who are of werkog age for every persas cretrement age. Io 200, there were 9.2 pecple tut were able to tke cave of retrement-abe ecple, tis orcas a diferent set of eines. Bur one must act confise magrine wih gcba iniuence, China ll have t be preccexpied with the adjustments to wbanzatin, with the adhusments to demoerani, and wit he adjisnents to an international sjsem it which it wll be @ permanent partupant rater than te centre ofthe universe, asit has historically conceived of ise, These ae sduble problems, bur they auld nct be compared to Westar notoas c imperial. Historically, Chinat€™s role intsrsionaly has bosn based on gaining resect fr is conduct. thas not been goared culturally fr glebal roo, [believe that for Cina to manage is eavreament and its domesic stusin, co-cperatn wit the (lest 46° rather han atempts to demas the West 2€°A wil be reaured. runvano GRFrmis: Fareed, would you ke to weigh a en this peat als? asec zac: I yant 19 adk Nal a question 1axppose Toc Pave ead all of Nalge™s farts hocks to fad quotations tat conpaet is current pasion, but instead BEM cing to paths vory snply. Nal is avery Keon stent of goopalios, and Twendared wat be made ofthe fct that China is ring #6" and itis undeubtedy rising 3€° but not 5. gecpeltial yacuun, you conser a pat year, China hal a goed Year had a fnanchl criss and i eame au cit fesing cotdent. nd consider Chnage™%s bebayau Jn Copenhagen, China hunted the United Stats and huriistod the proctont ofthe United States, and refused to din up fora dea. angsred Japan encrmousy wih ts ‘pester he ian ofthe Serkan Hands.” When the Marth Hereans sake a Sah Farean boat, andthe South Koreans ake the Chinese to condemn te acon, ty relied, ‘wich enraged the Scuh Koreans. The Vetramese and Plioincs were aso enraged because Chica asserted sovereiont over the Sou China Sea, Thats justi ene vear! 4rd dese instances occurred when China hadni€™t oven ection to tho pint ure itis considered the dominant eeanmsc power inthe work. Do you think hat al these counvies are ging to sil accept Chinese danza? Cr are we likely to see a sted response from the klas, Vetwams, Sout Horeas, Japan, and lndanesias ofthe wold? Al ofa suidon th proposition ofa damizant China doesngel™ or as ron ast de mau FERGUSON: Thanks, Fareed, for tht question. Ee noticed in your recent columns in Tine magazine yous6™4e boon dabbling in economics So this ges me an copermnity © help you cut. Th tog abou Chinate™s promt dving the Snancial crise is tha i fandamentally altered Chinat€™s role ia the world eccncray. Ub uni he financial criss tho main sory was tal China was competing wih cher merging markets for market caro in develeped eccnomis ike Canadaié™s or to United Sttoas€™. China was an exporter of cheap gonds and exeatally yaa ale io beat at moet of i emerzing marlet compatiors with the amcalled €aChina price. 26 And then the fencial cris suck and thoae developed economies went into recession or near depression.a market to which thy could sol. ‘Tat reed is ecing continue because th whole sim of Chinat€™s ates fve~vear plan isto shit fom exports to domestic demand to consumption. Thats why the idea shatall hase Adan ecanies are acing to band tagetar aga nasty China ina tial fants. They depend on China ecanomivally mare now Ban ty ever haye. And you go to Seaul and tlk people thre, or you tlk t Mitesh Ambac, dines richest man, het tll you just how big ChinakeTNs business i ior the res of Aa now. dnd ‘hat sooms w me tobe a yory good reas yi the 21s cennay is gong w belong 0 Chia, because al of tnse Adan markets are gokg to belong t China ae a a ee ee, es oe, oe oe, rupvaro cerrmis: Wem geing t go you, Devi, and then back wo Fareed, and fnish vith Ir. Kisinger helo we take a ecuple of questions fem te aulionee pavous Fareed was dbsiualy igh i cbsaring the tensions during the past your. Fur we have to go deeper. We denge™t have w say on te sla, as thay do cn telecon, em sary, telvisien is important especialy Pareedi€™s program. wich [ike very much But we ve t go besead the sriace. Uho are the agaressrs? Who were the ‘proweatie parfns? twas nover China. ‘Par example, take the isu of do Senkaleu Hands and Japarge™%s nysiyement. The Japanese gojernment ares and used demestic lay against Chinese saors The Chineso se was tying to make peace, Consisr the Copentagsn negoistons 26° China was tying to come toa msanhgil agreement wih cor countriss. Tho Chinese ste ‘Sexvemely hadcapped because witajer the Cinese government pramizes tay, the Chinese eojernment hast haar 2 the fire, because We cannet cli We hye changed ou parliament and that the now parliament has mule the agreement ‘nthe cas of zegedaions withthe Laited States, was a shay for the ney present, Barack Obama. The president yas eying to negotate, but te deal yaud have been ‘led by Congress: That tactic woud never werk x China, Tueuld suggest you lok at her evidence, For slnost tres years during te fancil criss China was tring to ‘sable te global fancial gstem Unlike many cer cuvencles, he renmibi (RMB) di act depreciate azaos the US. dllar during the peak davs cf the criss ‘Als China df not sol massive emeunts of Treasury bond buidings during tho francil criss. China has been the mot patnt long-trm investor sporting tedavee™%s Buope and sparing the US. government today. So sugzes locking a he big nicare, PaREEDZACARA: Nl is of course, an incredibly accomplished economic histeran, and he understands the economics of Aa, Bat woud point out that troughout hse people ‘have genet war and comires hve had sited gecpliical vais desc the fact hat they have been economically interdependeat. “he fos great Hiserian, Thuyulies, talked about he Peloponnesian ‘ar, and his rs explanation fr the reas da War accurred was haw and digit. Tht ar ha sotiog to do with eccacmiss Leck at Barcpe ca the eve ofthe Pst Virid War 2” it asa cenineat tht was eccnomicaly mare interdependent by some measzes than the comes cf the werd tay. The level ef ecananis interdependence bet\ean Briain and Germany’ at that me yas such bat it yasin some Ways madaoss that thage Sy counvies went to war, bu sil dey did There was a very famous bock writen by a vom Histrian who talked abcor the ict tat perhaps Brian shoul not have gone to war. because that Was nsniy. Tat bask was ealed The Ply of War. Oh, wat aminuts! That hiserian was Nall Ferguse, ALL FERGUEON: So yous Le road one of my books then [RUDVARD GAFFTHS: Before we end the rebuttal part of this debate, E€™d like to allow Dr. Kissinger to have the last word.tendency isto say that Chia can be a stakeholder, it can be a participant in a system dt they did nct paripate in creating. So the isms is whether or not itis posable to creale a international stom wth China as @partipant witout dominating i. Thisis really what wo are debating. “ladarstand the chaervains of ow Crnese adleague, hoge™s nat ang dat China Wl daria the Wold. He¥eMS saving that China in making great progress and tat China wants tobe heard, and tht the United Statos had not present thom with a frished product and ack for tei agresment on such sscs as climate changs. All of is we agree inen, on tis de of he aie. Sq, Tayi, i you would Ie to move your chair over to cur Side, we vill yoo you. ruovaro cerrmis: ogee going to move ino the question and ans parton af the debate na. Weyer cing to break dam ito the flowing sibjects The sbjeots sre ccmnomi, pola) end cultral, and of couse gecpliical To begin wit the soctn on the econamy went © go to samecns inthe eusionce wing€™%s writin a number ct bestselling berks cn eccncis thames incising Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is 2 Better Way far Afvias, abesseler in Canada, aad Ho the Tost Was Lost! Fityy Years of Bconomis Folly #8" and the Stark Choices Ahead, and sho is Dambisa Novo aust novo: Mr quasi is for Me. Li and Mt. Ferguson. Lint] ac, a key place of Chinas development rate has been to use sof power, vas resources to avcumniate and scoess natural resources sich asland, watr, energy, and minerals. And effectively, Chinai€™'s boon fresloting of th Unted States, utish has boon underwriting public geeds such as aaticnal security around the world. AG we head toward a world population of nine bili people ia 2060, and add ro bili into the mle clas x 2080, sy question to you is ow aggresive do you thnk Chine wil bocome inher effets to secure natural rexarces? Ip ctor word, whats tho lslod that China moves from the sft poner strategy of accumulating rescices to one where she depends mare aggressively ca hard power and, tharefere, adcpts more mary and cclenil-lke rategies cf sscumdaing reaurces, parbuarly the context of Ana? au Feacuson:Dambis, 26s great to have you hore, and Thesiale to anower a question from youn tho sibjoot cf Aca, Brit ssoms to me, having recently vised Zambia and hag been to Senegal and Nambia last year, tht semethng very pert is happening ia sub-Saharan Atica, Chia is leading a whee neve develoomentl push wich is radicaly diffrent in its nature fram th ai programs you porsuachely argued had been a falure whon te Wes tied thom. This isa developmental sizer basod on sli interes. Cina is developing nanral resources such as copper inthe Zambian copper belt because t desperately needs capper to wire is vas new ees But th effect in _Aéloa is by ao means al bad, and Lthink i9€s a really big misrepreseotzion to sugzes tht tis sa rerun of 19f-ceanay ealeciaion. That waaste™t the questa ia me ‘mind hen I Went to Zambia, waage™ te ansyer tat [fond ‘That wasnd6™ the Chinese approach, and in many wars [tik what thy are ding is line with wht vou argued in Dead Aid, The Chinese are invesing. Thevae™re trying to make money. TheygeMe leting the market drive Abivan esoncnis development raher tun tandous and a cule of dependency. Weld this umately lead conflict ofthe set tat vou sees: a sxt of scramble for Atioa, ast didi the late 19% ceanay? IRETs conceinable, but [see abseluely 2 son clit atthe moment Tarede%s ely coe comay scrambling for Avia right no, and hat comity is Crna. avour Let me fella Nalde™s great paints by adding thes snple chaarvatons The fst choervation baa todo wih ntenticn. Cina donand€™e have the intention of repeating the cdlavialism cf previis centuries Ca the convary, China has been working hard wo collaberate with Abican counties, Consder the Alcan Laioa Summit ubish tock placedom AY hid servation in mare ganerally about China self Win China there have been tremendous afr to pus fr ney tchnclogas to conserve ressrces new toctncogis to promets ensrey efciony, and new paises to encourage conservatin. Sothink itis lear that China is tryng to dovelep a now pattern of modernisation tht ‘Wl give hope wo thae the WerldgeOs pow nations ruovara Geers: I yt ack you Dr. Hissar, idee this ne of the wap dt ona that beg to aaa lcbel peer fall at? Do you tik Chi in tris of reacting bevend itl to defend these rescuroes? eseviassncee: Tat China wll want to acauire resources fer ts indusry is a aatiral elton. Whether it ellves that in order to have the access tits resources it mst alo be rdlriy dominant, thage™s mother decid, Wyou consider Germaey’ before Werld War [te yerld woud probably have been able tlie withthe idea tat Germany’ had ‘he largest land are. Bur whan @ ied to develop te yerlcié™s argos atal force on top of thay began to irestan the loog-tarm existence of Grant Brain So tare wore two challenges, “We have © understand that Chiza wl get srenger, and tht we canac react eewdlegcally to every indication cf Chinese svength But China hast learn cme self-liniation in the way it vndloates ts intereas arn the werd Bt of thea ideas have to exist and cannot be dane by one nation clone. Bas to be done exlaberaiey. Faneen zacanx: Can Ted just one comment, wich is itink dat Davi said that Cinaz®™sinvesmonts in Mica are very popular [ink t weld be mere accurate to say that Chinsde%s nyestmcersin bina ae very popula wih (SieadeMs) otters Iijus' Hanya a Year ago and lacked a grup of Henyan parlamcetarians Vat thir rain encom was 6" we wore talking about democracy end human rights a6” and thy said the nls biggest concern they haw is tht China is ging arcund Aioas©™ overameats to make deals with Atioate™s dctacrs, and there ae no quesions asked and thre iso accouabliy ca any human rights issues. [oud argue that du is ‘pessbly an exaggeration, but corsinly something thy have to be werred about in long-term gocpeical sons, We thought we had very sable relations with many ofthe comtiss in the Mdle Eas: it tras ou we had very stable relaicos with ll ofthe dictacrsin the Middle Bast mau FeAGUGON: Hang on a second, Farsed, 6m an iserin mare than Tam an economist Remind me, are you saving that ectern powers never did deals with Western Gotan, and that disc seme nev and terrble deformity’ of Chinese plicy? [zo to Abica, to, an [spake to the miners in te copper belt uh had 20 jobs when the state cguned mining system collapsed and baw jobs now because the Chinese reopened tbe mines, And they not cry reepened thom but extonded thom, R26 not fi to say tht China aly deals with Abican dictes i deals with Abioan democracies it deals wih the goveramens it find in Afica nclutng the govermments that Western pavers have prepped up for co many years. FaREED ZAKARIA: mak no aplogos fr the West on tissue. BE™m sinply pong ot that China s doing what ts ding withthe leadership clas and tht that leadership sagy act react the Wades oth ence Abioan public, uu Feacuson Wed vou say that Aca would be beter oft if China didaa@™t inves there? a er‘wan Eee. asec zac: Youre cbyoudy Ending t annoying even thagh you we net Chinese, IOvARO GAFFTHS: Saving on the theme of esonemis, EE™%m holding in my hand what many pecple cone tobe the quintessential consumer access produc ofthe lst ecale, he Apple Phone. This phone is manactred in China. ishowever, desoned ix Caltrnia. The satware that powersit was conceived by Steve Jobs and his team at 4ople, dnd that wow factr that makes tis exch a covtod devise leads me to adk both Nall and Dad, can China inovste in he same way, onthe same scale as Apple, 25 Google, or as RM has here a Canada? Because thevd€re ect do it if you tin that they can own the 2ist cent bawous The ansver is ves thay can. Remember, no very pocr comy coud innovate ovenishe MET: a leaming proces. A sald before is abou opening ww, Joarning what works inte Wes, sending hundreds of thousands of tutonts to tho Wet to lean and thon gradually innovts, Nearly they years aga Cina coulda innovate, Now we have raid wans-ralreads wile the Unted States is sil sruggling. Teday we have cars mich are ct aly cheaper but also mare eficiet than thse but by General Meters Remember, most of GME™s pre comes from China today. It were act fr Ciesecperatons, GM woud have used mare US. goverament money fr is Dalat REDS a simple face 12eMm sre China wil inaorate inthe Jang ran. RAE a pratuallearaing process Bu whether or act China il have an Phone isthe fre isa dierent issu. 46s a torent level of imovsion £6" Phones and ads cold only be invert inde Lnted Staten Cina has diferent ecenemnis and socal iasinsons it will at be nthe euting ego of innosaton, Bot you dena€™ need tobe onthe cuting edge of imavatin in order tobe @ respected and important com inthe werd uu reacuson: Youlnow, BE beard tat sory about te Phas so many tines, and i3€Ms a septom of Western complacency. Asif weaeMl always have the coo ideas snd thay26™ algays do the asxmbly Ine. Tat idea isten yours out of dat. Wage Mre not ulking abou the fue here. China sgcng to overtake Germany in terms of Internationally recognized patects in the nest couple of vears and dt is because of a huge eff cathe part of Choate educationalists, lke the ne where David Works trai the game in research and development, produsig peaple with PuDGe™s And Wem not ulking about PLD.GE™MS in media sien but PLD.GE™S a ccgincerng and ia shesics, rupvano Garris: Fareed, BEM like to ceme to you en tis pin aswell Can China imate whe @ free and epen saci? asec zac Fest ot me say that Yagree with Nal and David ca dis amu, 1s a mise to beliove hat thre is rene sort ef genato Gefwrmation tat deesre™e alo the Chineso to innovate. OF sours tav6™ eo going to note, of course they#€™re going odo things tht are eresing. Te pont hat Honry and Thkeep making is tye@™ro gang to inzovate, ete Mre scing to nace, Bis goes tobe a weld a maltpliniies Thales why Iaidege MM eal my beck The Chinese Warldce The ledian orld. kis genuinely a pos American world, Toro wil bo a lot of innovation. Burl do ave ene qualiiing tug i you lok at Apale andthe abou What cantinaes novation, Apple generally vegarded asthe most imate compar inthe werd dit now, ktops all the Its Apple spends as much meney en research and development in ene dooade as Most spends in one year. you look tte lis of research and dexelopment pending, Apple isranked S2nd, I spends 8 percent of what most computer carparies pend, Spple¥€Ms nachaions are dened wit he ways human beingssearch engioe. Emay be the adversig program ‘hat goes along wih it So par of what inovainn is is this srange comblnaton of sience and consimer bebavcw. [mean the great invention that launched copii was dable-sntry beckkesping, I wai€™t ame sclontfc gizmo (Of couse, Cera vil innorate in ts owe way. but there is scmething abcur the econysem cé America that has all ofthe tings that we al know, Al tink most important, ‘rvericans have the sblity te quesin hierarchy, whibh is ebaeluly hey. Thoar pecple talking about Asn educatn and tho Tior Nem sve of perenine+ You know, Tent ‘trough an Asan educa system, [think 96% pret leur. IRET%s rote memcicatn toward seme big exam, and when seule he taken the exam vou promptly forget everthing youl€™ Jserned. ‘The American stem is much beter ia tat it eaches suents to tink, i teaches stvlats to problems, it teaches stents to love leaning ir the rest tha lives iis a cents process and it doosnge™ male anyene fee] aamed cf falure. Te abit w fal effieey i an credibly power part cf nacyaian, So China ull zncyate, bur tik thar is semeshiog very special abort Lated Sites runvano GRFFMis I junto move ont the sce part ofthe quasinn and ansier session, wish i pltos and eulaxe. Te hsk us, Ue lke to eal en enice Stein, tha ‘peed ct Munk School of Global tre saoce sven Tis cussion is or David Li and Pareed Zakaria, The word watched recestly with aseniément as yom pecele sreamed ino the squares ix Tunisia and ia Fevot ‘0 demand pital rights and to demand tat auburn ard ccrrt leaders leave the scene. Novy, he padlels betwean the Avab World az China are far tom pee China is a manure soe, the Arab word is yomg. China has created meds of mins fjcbs, Arab governments ve act. Br Cina Wee the Arab weld, erates almost no dlsat, and again, lke the ab Word, thre i growing incame inequality win China. So my’ ques ig as China is about to undergo a leadership wanstnn,S wil hare be rowing demand fr palical vats in China, and bow wl the leaders ecpe? bawous Thank you fr asking tis quesion Inew it would come w. [dona ™ ceed to be reminded ofthe Arab Spring 26° we knew it would huopen from day one. Aer eccnomis since poopie i China knew dat here would be mere veces, thre Wald be mare demae ior the right to expres ops and palical pareipaix in dacsn~ makes. ‘From day one, poople in China know that eccnomi isitinal change woud go hand in hand wih plical instonal change, Ittink ho biggsst minndersanding abot China tha Hea tat wo dong Dh ave plialinsitsinal change. We do, sartag with the way leaders ave being selected. Tey. te yy leaders are boing selected and the way pullo decsens are being made is mich much more sphisicated than it was before, Young pecple in China ae able to xpress thr cpinions en the Internet, and in rod cases tha veiees are being heard and pula dacisons are being changed. So [oud invite you all ogo to China, to alo yams people, to Vist Chinese web stag, to ndersand he new method refrm, to understand the now ways in which people express thir cpniens and express thir dsslonce. And you wil loo seo a new way in ich public decisoe-makers are taking nto account te coaias of pele, especially youe pecele asec zac: Iould have agreed with Dovid Sie years aga yas very clear tt there was a movement toward very gradual and yey limited, but alo ery real, plied roform. [think tht over tho laste years we have soen that economic reform and seenamic eros have proceeded apace, but thore hasbeen a drawing bask of any hind of eee ee ee en ne en ee ee ee eesume accounts. a mili people meniicring the lnernet, Test phone messages are alo mentored. Tan tll you bot my one, porsmal se ofthis T ect an teriew with Vn Jiabao fer my program, and it was avery important intaniow that [was bnoured to got, Tho Cinese government amonced Hat it was king place because i yas seen as ery important. Premier Ven male some sly harmless comments about tow Cina would ovectully eve polically. The intarvew was banned on Chinese TV; it was taken of Chinese web sis Then 2 group of Chinese journals proaciad the fact hat the ‘evi fad bean ccnawed, and tha protest lear yas preendy taken of of thir Web sta. Tis doas not seike me as plea velorm. Ths srivea me as aki of exeling ofthe wegens a fear of what might happen next Clearly China has boen ging grestor and grosir foodom tots people, Ideng€™% doubt that ot al, Bt toy have figure fut by thay’ are geizg t creat a pall stom that anccmmadates this ing middle class a Weld where people are demanding greater and greatr accoutbiit’ Fam thei ears, ‘bea Lecenpare iia and China [tink to mvselé China has saved all the anal problems. Theva Me bul the best roads and the best hiskwavs andthe best hi-speed ral, and theyre done ts © magniicentt ta it puts India to shame, Bus aia has scved one big prcblem, wich c what it wil eck lke tentfire vears fram 20%" palicaly. I yl be the same eran, hacia damacrany itis taiay. What wil China be syenty—lve years tam novi, pllcally? TH there sl be a mandarin elite? The Communi Part cé Cina is the mest elie palica crganicatn in the weld today. Frervbody locks lise Davi, th all nye PaD2€T%s and hes2e re easiacers but ‘tages not China, The pecple thay re are Gis vast mass af peasantry, and tins people are not refectd in the plical qjsem. Their views toa large estent are dered ‘trough many mechanions. Tht sikes me as 2 age pail challenge fr Cina grog frward. ruovaso carrms: De. Hisnger, [stink the audience wants to hear you ca this quesicn, too ewer assnate, [belie thatthe nest decade wil see China wrestie wih the prcblem cf bw it wil brag is pola] inainaions inline with ts eccnanc developmect. Whee thors aro vas economic changes, the migraton of poops, the spread of educatin, itis absolutely inevible tht that qussion wil be one of the dominant sss ofthe nese leaders, and that queso i coming wp ia a year and ahalé Whatever frm i wl aks, whether wl be inthe frm of Wester parlamentary democracy a seme net form dat wo havent coon yet he cubome wil have to include more wansparency and mors partvpaton. And [belive to next leadersip change wil reflect tis This = sm Why Ido net belive dat a counny’ tat yl be 2 preoccupied ith fundamental change Wil alan have de t cenwenvate on damizaing the Wald ruovano cerns: BEM going ole Nal respond, ua Feneuson: remember reading a boda fy yearsback ith tle ke The Furure of Freedom in ybich abiliant voung journals argued tt there were problems ‘wi Wesera demecracy, and espectlly wih American democracy, that were only gche get worse. Hey. that was 0a Pareed! ‘now tat Br. Hesinger wil agree wih me on tis timigh he doasge™t nocd w moje oer the pro ide yet 4E” We are making a big mistake fe tik there is ce swtersal model ef Wester democracy that absctely verb is ecg adept at seme pont between now an 2060. Hye tin tat hat is what the ne of the werd is gang to led Ike, you are gogo be ene very, yory diappanted perso, Starting in the Midie Fas, the chances af Westera-svle democracy emerging 2 an af tse comtias bast be between and 5 percent at bes. Davi raised the possiblity of alternative models fer demveracy a he beeing fis thoghch opening remavis And [ Oe eethey are most Ikely to pars a more asertive and aggresive foreign policy. This must be ove ofthe lessons of modern history, indeed of ancient Histor. And that is one ofthe reaizas i) I ink iis precisely at is ne of plical sess at We are likely wo see a mee nateraliie and a more asorive China Tht sone ofthe reasens HE%n reung fer tis mesin. uovaso GRFrs: To start ff rfl porta of this quesicn and answer perked, IWant call on semeane whed€™s heute lone and hard about th pracialies céCinate™s oe, HegeDMs the farmer US. snoretary of dofence, Wan Cohan. wuunuconee Lec, WEE ike to respond ta Mr. Fergusmnge™ comments reference to Singapore. [was there a couple of weeks aga for de so-ealled Shangri-La Dialogues.’ Secretary [Robert] Gates was there, and he made a ery srong statement abut the need ie the Unted States to remain deeply engaged inthe Ada-Pacic regio, Aad be made th sutcment o ssfy be Adar nations many ef which are ansicus about China. One youn man Talked to 46° you qucted him i your beak, Forced 26” ‘sid that no coe in Aca wants o be denizated by China. Thre iso amiran fr the Chinese dream, as there mig be fr te American dream. But tere is grovieg cencern tht as China continsss to expand its cccnemy iis eso expanding is miliary. And there is @ concern tht the United States poraps is locking ward now because of ca debe problems and that we wil act be there ia suclent sumbers. So hey woud lle forthe Unied States to become even mare engaged Fareed, you sid n you book ta he Lite Statos must lock for ways to co-cperate with China, And tore are a umber of things tht we can always co-gperais on, and she lis is pretty public. But hare are also areas of Soe, be it Tawar, or the Seuth China Sea. And vou suggest tat we need to draw Ines Now, we eaxd@™t dean hem everrstere, but the mutter ofthe South China Sea doos rae quesions in trms of Indonesia, Nélayia the Phippines, and her nations in to region. Mest rencaly, Vet {s ashing te Unied Stes t play arle helsing tm scve te issue of accereignt and terri integrity. So the questo Lave fr vou cr Dr. Hissager i, wuld vou sxgest or super drawing the Ine et Chinai€™S assortin of sxereignty over the Seuh China Seu? vesevssusee: To answer your specie question, tink from ofthe oasis a findamontl principle of American policy, and ita been a findamental principle of ho International system. Sol woud eppese the aot tat anv sea shoud be wrested asa terval isos, Nest, there are a series cf specific issues abut the posession ofa rum cfislands and rocks. and tat shoud be dealt wth treush negotiation, Bt co tis favdamentl ase, Ineld apply the princble cf freedom of the seas to the South China Sea a2] would to any ater open acean. The sncand paint I ant w© make, however, is hs: wile we can define the emersig relatznstip with China as an aby to dea Ines 1 belive & would be exracrdnary dangerous to begin thakog of international relations as a quasion cf the miliary ecatsiameat of China. isnot a question of military cantunmect. kis a quesio of dealing with Cizage™%s iovible vise. China histo resbain salt, wit deinable lis. “Tee United States cannct ade China seve all of cur internal problems i us We have to remain cempetive. Ire remain competitive, ten te next challenge isto see whether a dialogue con develop between China andthe United States and aber couvies tht tare the sama View ca yhat We ited te yr t lea ike Hye to ten Years from now. Tkoep asking tho qussicn that Nall adked in his rst bck, whichis tis if th leaders of Europe fa noun i 1914 what do world would lok ik in 1880, would they have beloved tat wit happened in Saree? juifed de tons of mln cf camules dt reauted? Sinai, Cbeliove de leaders ofthe werld ac have to ak thomsslves, and te leaders of China hae to ack thomsslves, bow the ercluon sould be managed ina way tats co-operative rathor than confentatndl. Toonduoted freien paliey on balance of power principles Tlnow haw to play that game. So is not that ! wouldng€& know how the United States should play it‘Ba problem that i conceivable.a€ What E€™m suggesting is that the South China Sea is a clear case! # should not be claimed by any natin. ‘Bue what we realy have task i thatthe tp leaders begin to ack cme of he same questions tat have been asked doving tis debate 4€° w lode at where we want be Sve tten yoars om now and werk bask fm tat rahor tan deal with cvss management meath by month and be ia hatin when every’ te te loaders meet tare isa terre commurigiAG, and then to monte later screcne i adkng, aeolhare di the Chinese go wrens, where di the West go wrong?G€ That ony fandamental view, 20 cn he South China Sea ides claar where we ddd come outwith resect ofreadem cf amiss. Bu thao": jus a gpten. Whats required isan understanding that ‘wo are heating nto a new werd erder wth universal isoes and tht tis world order cannct be organized usng the same principles es ow cusomary, conventional tnking. 22d isis when te relateastip with China il heccme iepcrtant, because China ring. The quastin i car Chiva learn restrain? Ad ca the Ute States lear‘ sscemmodats a reduction of our previous infuonce? Is that with which we need to deal. ruovaso GRerus: Pareed, can America learn patern of resvait a this new phase? Give us you sense of where the American pay iat vis-A -vis Cina, ve thy wiline © ancerodata i rn? raseeozacann: Everybody tends to vow tho Ltited States as tang this voolaing freien poly 2” tht ig€™s unable to got its act tgothor and the peli is constantly stling. Adc China, The to say that [ink tat de opposite is he case, Since Henry Kissnger opened Cina othe ward, and qpened US. relatons with Cina, the Utd Stoo has bad remarkably consktnt plicy toward China. Tht palicy has been t intgrato Cina into the wal, to help China gan tho Inowledgo, the know-how the ‘welegy. the capil, and th isituiwal Fameiyrks Gat il balp become a predvetive, dying mamber ofthe bervatnal cammuniy. Ue hae flayed Gat wider Democrats presents and under Republican presents. We have mantsined an exraxdinary eonstoncy of poy, oven en sues sah asred lines such as our relatensti ‘wi Taivan, aed ow relasensin wit the Dalai Lama. Brery president has maintained a very song, co-operative relatonsio with China wile also maitacing some core inloress and velues tht were important fr the Uited Statos 1 greatest worry about US, Chinese relations right now sage the Lted States. thnk the Uhited Stats will conus play the same role, and has been ting to do The Unied States has been viling to refeem the international Menotay Fund (IP) ard the Verid Ban, and all he iternatina insuons © properly reflect tho ris of China and char emerging market compen La¥E%s be hanes, the coves hat haynge™ wanted todo it are the Burzpeans, because ther ying yl be ded in bis “The gracter danger is that a China undergoes the kind of paltoal wansorate tht Henry hasbeen talking abou, it igh ed ial na yary different road, And bare eM quodag Nall Ferguson, who bas sid, que rihely, China is becoming mere natkaalsie, mere assertive, and more arrogant. Tare is a grovieg sease in Cina hat the palsies thar Deg Saopig culined £6" hide you Ligh under a bua, co-cperate with the ited Stats 46° are nc ralovant People epee say tat was at atime when Chia had tho Soviot Union as an enemy, China needed th United Sites fer technslogy and for capt Cina also needed tho United States fer Ver Trade Organization (TO) ‘membership, and now China has al of tose tings So the great dissnnuy’ is mere Ukely to be from the Chinese rather han frm the Uited States, runvano Garris: So, Devi, that pases vial quason for your side of the meton, wish ig, will China pu cn certain red Ines? DAVOL: Well, my cbseryation i that the Chinese sie is wiling to wark on these difficult ismea The Chinese side has alwa’s said thet, and we are not making new claims. WeRe ee CN, eee a NR ir i Es, DAE, NS a DN I, A ee ES ee ee ‘American plies So the Chinese take this asa signal dt the ouside world is becaming more and mare haaile toward Chinese eccnamic and palical emergence. That the Told seges that people inthe West ty to undersiand the isms ty’ to put these relaely mall sues in @ larger context, an ty to understand that the Chinese seis not changing is positon. The Vest has to xiv its problems, starting wih thir financial challeges and then, when the West is more confiient, twill be oaskor for China to wrk, ‘with hem, ua enouson: You may not have heard the vive of Chinese power befare, ladies and geniemen, This s what t sounds ie, Get wed tit Because this isthe kind of fm, self-confident and more assertve China that Ihave seen more and more of during my tbs to China and fe my encounters with Chinese academics and satesmen in recent © Geieg right back to he quastin, does the Uied States hae the op of draving ines anyere in Aa inthe wea that i daring the Biserhower admins atin or indeed dure the days of tho Nin adinistration? Tdond®™ think so, And the reason I dong€™4 think so relates to Daide@™s pon. Where are the resources? Lack at tho Congressional Buiget Otice proisctions of where the United States is ecg tobe, Idocd€™e know vou saw dim Bakerd€™s aricle inthe Wall Street Jouraal® He cconclued that in rine veers the United States will be spending mare onthe interest on the federal debt tan on national security. ‘The Congressional Buizet Oiice has prlections for what the Uhited Sites would save iit reduced is overseas tcp presence to 20,000) Thi thousand! Now in dat word 2€° and wo aro racing toward tht world in tis decade 2" te idea thatthe Unied Stetos can say to China, this far and no futher, end adopt areelpoid, a belance of power policy witha deat of militar action, well that ee becemes less and less plausble, ad tatt€™s precise the pent this debate, KE™s the way that power sits Es sxmewhat imperceptible bit when it ats ladies and gentlemen, it talks litle bit ike Did. uDARD GAFRTHS: So, ladios and genidemen, EE™m now eving to call on cur debaters for thir closing arguments Theva€™re each gcing tobe given three minutes to make thelr case to ty to svar any fal undecided woes Wet re gine t have ou closing remarks in the coposte rder of cur cpenine siatements So, Dr, Hisnger, #youcodd please berin. rex nseNoeR: Th sue is act whether or act China will grow ix masnince, That wil clear happen. The issu i tncfcld, First how China woes ts rowing capacities, and secondly, whether te Lhited States and its lies ae willing adjust the new iternatinal ensenment, see noting orgenc inthe statin that leads me t believe tht Chine wl dominate the 21st centay, Chine wl play «larger role fn the 21st cents. “The challenge is whether America can redefine itself after its century of progress and similar, how China redefines itself when i absorbs its ecenomric gronth [believe the United States has the capacity to draw lines but we have tobe selective in drawing the Ines Mire than that, we dad ty to move toward relatcoshib th which the lines that ‘separate us are notte crusil element, bit the things we do together. uovasmonrrmis: David Li, your three inten please, pavor Let me start by reiterating a remark which I made in mmr opening statement. That is that the changes which have been going on in Chine for the past tree decades at‘only one dominant comiry in the world tht is the United States. Bis not the dream, not the axpiration of China, not the capacity of China, to emaats the suconss of the United Stas in he dominance ofthe world. bis simly notin the genes of ou Confcian wadition That being undersiood, [urge you's think abou «diferent perspective. Forget about the past fro undred years of Westorn piloxply, of Weston perspective, Frgst about Jodkog at internatonl rslaton in terms cf woners and losers. Instead, loc trough the lens of tational Chinese shlcsohars, the Confcians. The Confusians advocated for 2 harmonious werd in which indkiduals ro at peece with the ouside werd, and wih each cer, and comes are werking wih each ober t sve international conics Turgs ‘youto conser this perspective to mdersand the caging changes nthe Chinese eccaan and sect Fly, let me call won you to have patience and to wndersiund tat we are not bystanders we are patipants Thon we bceme hse, whon we worry about Chinste™s emergence, when we Warr abou the relate decline ofthe Laited States or the decline ofthe West we create problems fr the word, we prowke negate, sepicis foes in China, deed, is world coud became a very uncomferable world. Soin the end [urge yout tink about these ines again. Chinas€™s emergence does sot imply that China Wl dominate the yerld. The it centay wil belong 0 China an als ill belong to any ccm, any nations or peoples who are wiling tll the flow, Together we all wil oun the contry. Thank you uovaso Garris: Pareed Zakaria youseT™re next reaeeo zac: We are ging through a cis cf confidence in the Western werld, and this has been true when we have bees faced with these Kinds of new and diferent clullenges and when We have faved nates dat seem to be cn the rise ar ea the march. George Venan, the great American satoanan and Writer, 0 used to yterouingly about how be thouct the Unied States woud never be able to withstand the Sot challenge, because we were Weak aad dckle and we changed ow minds and they were far-sighted and sategic. Ue were tacbal and supid. Yet somehow it worked out allright There ia tendency to think the same of China 26" ta thay hve is noredble long-term vse and that Americans are bumbling ices, hare isa wenderfl try tht encepsiates dis) Zhou Enllis sippooed to have sad, Ink acl ia a conversation wih Henry Hisinger, when adked what he hugh of she French Reveuion, 26465 co sm ll. 4€ Hod everyone Hugh dh my goudness, NeJEM a genus be isp la-sglued, he thnks i cenarien Wel, uns out he meant 36° this wasin 1979 a6” the French recluon of 1989, tho sucentrovcuton, And it was peroody rane et tht pitt say that twas too sxx 0 tl So dade bolas tat the Chnese ae srategi= mascrminds and the Unted States are bumbling. Ve have mazaged to bunble cur way dash araber advanced postion site the challenges itm tho Haiscri€™S Germany, ram the Sot Union, fem Nesi Germany, ad Titik what you wil dish the United Stats 26° Neth America, even 26° are creating an exracrdinary model io dis new world We are becoming the fst mrersl nae, a country tat draws pecple from all pris af the werd. pecle of all coours creeds, end roligins, and fds a way to hares tor tlont and buld a kindof nivorsal dream. happens her, end it draws togetbr poeple from all over tho veld, Teck at his panel treo ofthe poeple on this panel, Nall Forgusme, myself, and Henry Keser, are irmigrants wing€™%re come and found their fetus in th United States because it welecmed the mest talented people the werd and alowed them to dorish in whatever they wanted, evea to denounce the United States as Nall Peressce ‘snow dang, So Turge you to tink abou this! i wo lee fat in cusnves if we lose eh in the power of fre and epen societies we do mere damage than anything else weuovaso GRerms: Nal, vow fal, closing remarks, please. ux Feaguson Wl, ladies and gentlemen, wedC"ye heard that China i Iikely w repeat the experince of ter Asan comes, aod ran cut of team, mavbe, But ds far it has done far betar tha thoss hor Asan countries, Cina has acbioved the biggest and fast indusrl revel of hom all, ing ndreds of mils of pple out of poverty [dand@™t agree wih Daid. [tink tis sory ieee half ver. NEMS mare a quarter over. Tored©™s alot mare sl to come, “The sooend point Twant to make to you is thatthe West#€™s problems aro far moro sorkus than wo hive just hoard fom Fareed, And eno of the biggest problems is that bind cf complacency. As we speak. the Purczace saline apart an experiment wih a sale curency is dsntepratng mainly becatse ofthe sclvency of he cradle of democracy, Grose. As wo speak, the public finances ofthe Uniod States are a€° you do the math which Ido 26° more or Jess in the sams postion as thay wore & Grosce swovears age The tajectay the deb is act diferent. kmay only be a mater cf time bere a sca criss ares the United States, the magainde cf mtich we wil never aye seen boise, You lnow what? wee had tis debate a nndred years aga, andthe mation had been tht the Ath cantar’ Weald belong to the Uaied States, ho would hve yous ee 0 Kwai have soomed, certainly to any Brtsh debater, proposraus. A Bich debater woud hme sit 260¢Those Yanks, wit thir tril small miter foross.. . Yooh, they have a big eccncmy, but lock at all Scr sno problems. Loc atthe qualer and poverty i tar elias wuld have been Ver’ e057 to ake the case in 1911 that rnorica would faltr as woi€™%e heard China wil feltor during this debate. And yet it pened, Econamis power came first, ard then gecpeial power. Twin to conchae witha quctaton, 2eahatf Cina gradually expands is accranie ten acts calmly and mederately, and slowly enlarges ts sphere of nfuence, seeking nly greater fends end inuence inthe world? What fit ast postions itself as the atomative to a hectorng and arrogant America? How well America cops? This new challenge for ho United States, ono fr which tis largely unprepared. 2€ Thoy are the words of Fareed Zakaria, lds and gentomen. Ard tht i procily uty China veil osm the 2st contary, and you shal ete fr ths matin. PIOVARO GAFFTIS: This was an excecdingly hard-fought and wellcentesod debeto, and lot me reiterate sumoting that Petar Nik as sid of past Mink Debates, 126™S ono thing fr any on of those indus o get up en a sage in front ofan auionce and give a so piece speech les someting quite different to have tis caring, tis recting of minds, and to doit wit the eloquence and conviction that cor debaters have shown during tis debate (One fil comment, Dr. Kesnger tink you tavo denied your pubic ome very special talons hat use had in weg unt] your cighty-cighh voar to ongegs in @ public debate, You were absolutely custandig, st. Thank you Summary! At ovoringi€™ sar, th pro-debate ota was 29 percent in favour of the ress and 40 percent egsins, and 21 percent were undosided. The fn! wis owed a aif and a disappearance ofthe undecided yoters with $8 percent in favour f te rescluton and 62 percent agains.