Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Aurora relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount
Rainfall Amount
Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%) (mm)
(mm)

Lower Bound 1.5 9.0 624.7

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 8.5 52.2 667.9
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) 52.0 320.3 936.0
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -6.1 -37.5 578.2

High Emission
616 mm (RCP8.5) Median 3.0 18.2 633.9
Upper Bound 31.8 196.0 811.7
Lower Bound 1.6 8.6 555.0
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 6.8 37.3 583.7
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) 22.5 122.8 669.2
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -10.2 -55.6 490.8

High Emission
546 mm (RCP8.5) Median 4.6 25.2 571.6
Upper Bound 19.0 103.6 650.0
Lower Bound -21.7 -166.9 601.8
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median -8.6 -66.0 702.7
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) -6.8 -52.5 716.2
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -16.6 -127.6 641.1

High Emission
769 mm (RCP8.5) Median -3.4 -26.1 742.6
Upper Bound 10.2 78.4 847.1
September-October-
Lower Bound -9.7 -111.5 1039.6
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median -2.4 -27.3 1123.8
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 5.3 60.5 1211.6
Lower Bound -5.0 -57.2 1093.9
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 2.8 32.5 1183.6
1151 mm
Upper Bound 11.1 127.5 1278.6
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
 Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Aurora relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Season Scenario Range* Information about patterns of Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Projected Seasonal Mean Change
Temperature (℃)

Lower Bound 1.0 25.5

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 1.2 25.7
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) Upper Bound 1.6 26.1
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.1 25.6
High Emission
24.5 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 26.1
Upper Bound 1.9 26.4
Lower Bound 0.9 28.0
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 1.2 28.3
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) Upper Bound 1.7 28.8
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.3 28.4
High Emission
27.1 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 28.7
Upper Bound 2.1 29.2
Lower Bound 1.0 28.9
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 1.2 29.1
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) Upper Bound 1.9 29.8
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.4 29.3
High Emission
27.9 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 29.5
Upper Bound 2.4 30.3
September-October-
Lower Bound 1.0 27.7
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.1 27.8
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 1.9 28.6
Lower Bound 1.3 28.0
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 1.5 28.2
26.7 ℃
Upper Bound 2.2 28.9
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
 Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Aurora relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount
Rainfall Amount
Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%) (mm)
(mm)

Lower Bound -2.4 -14.7 601.0

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 8.0 49.0 664.7
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) 38.1 234.5 850.2
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -13.5 -82.8 532.9

High Emission
616 mm (RCP8.5) Median 17.9 110.1 725.8
Upper Bound 36.3 223.7 839.4
Lower Bound -9.8 -53.8 492.6
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median -1.4 -7.5 538.9
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) 18.4 100.4 646.8
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -10.2 -55.6 490.8

High Emission
546 mm (RCP8.5) Median 6.7 36.3 582.7
Upper Bound 16.7 91.4 637.8
Lower Bound -20.8 -159.5 609.2
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median -14.5 -111.7 657.0
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) 4.3 33.3 802.0
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -24.4 -187.8 580.9

High Emission
769 mm (RCP8.5) Median -19.5 -149.7 619.0
Upper Bound 14.0 107.8 876.5
September-October-
Lower Bound -11.1 -128.1 1023.0
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.3 14.7 1165.8
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 10.3 118.1 1269.2
Lower Bound -10.8 -124.2 1026.9
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 0.5 5.4 1156.5
1151 mm
Upper Bound 8.6 98.5 1249.6
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
 Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Aurora relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Projected Seasonal Mean Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Temperature (℃)

Lower Bound 1.1 25.6

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 1.6 26.1
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) Upper Bound 2.2 26.7
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.9 26.4
High Emission
24.5 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 2.9 27.4
Upper Bound 3.5 28.0
Lower Bound 1.2 28.3
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 1.7 28.8
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) Upper Bound 2.5 29.6
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.4 29.5
High Emission
27.1 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 2.9 30.0
Upper Bound 3.9 31.0
Lower Bound 1.3 29.2
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 1.6 29.5
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) Upper Bound 2.6 30.5
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.7 30.6
High Emission
27.9 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 3.3 31.2
Upper Bound 4.4 32.3
September-October-
Lower Bound 1.3 28.0
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.4 28.1
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 2.6 29.3
Lower Bound 2.6 29.3
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 3.1 29.8
26.7 ℃
Upper Bound 4.2 30.9
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile