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Textbook Statistics For Technology A Course in Applied Statistics Third Edition Chatfield Ebook All Chapter PDF
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Statistics
for technology
A COURSE IN APPLIED STATISTICS
Third ed itio n (R evised)
Statistics
for technology
A COURSE IN APPLIED STATISTICS
Third edition (Revised)
Christopher Chatfield
Reader in Statistics
Bath University, UK
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material
is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety o f references are listed. Reasonable
efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot
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Preface 11
1 Outline of statistics 15
4 Discrete distributions 56
4.1 The discrete probability distribution 56
4.2 The binomial distribution 57
4.3 The binomial model 59
4.4 Types of distribution 64
4.5 The mean and variance of the binomial distribution 64
4.6 The Poisson distribution 69
4.7 Bivariate discrete distributions 75
5 Continuous distributions 81
5.1 Definitions 81
5.2 The mean and variance of continuous distributions 86
5.3 The normal distribution 87
5.4 Uses of the normal distribution 92
5.5 Normal probability paper 95
5.6 The exponential distribution 98
5.7 Bivariate continuous distributions 103
5 Contents
6 Estimation 106
6.1 Point and interval estimates 106
6.2 Properties of the expected value 107
6.3 The sampling distribution of x 111
6.4 The sampling distribution of 116
6.5 Some properties of estimators 118
6.6 General methods of point estimation 121
6.7 Interval estimation 126
6 Contents
10.3 The number of replications 227
10.4 Randomization 230
10.5 The analysis of a randomized comparative experiment 231
10.6 The range test 235
10.7 One-way analysis of variance 237
10.8 Follow-up study of the treatment means 241
10.9 Verifying the model 243
10.10 The randomized block experiment 244
10.11 Two-way analysis of variance 248
10.12 Latin squares 252
10.13 Balanced incomplete block designs 253
7 Contents
Appendix A The relationships between the normal, t- and
F-distributions 332
Index 377
8 Contents
‘It’s p erfectly in te llig ib le ,’ the ca p ta in said , in an o ffen d ed
to n e, ‘to a n y o n e th at u n d erstan d s su ch th in g s.’
Preface
10 Preface
getting too involved in mathematical details. 4 few results are stated
without proof where this is unlikely to affect the student’s comprehen
sion. However, I have tried to explain carefully the basic concepts of
the subject, such as probability and sampling distributions; these the
student must understand. The worst abuses of statistics arise in the
‘cook-book’ approach to the subject where scientists try to analyse
their data by substituting measurements into statistical formulae which
they do not understand.
Many readers will have access to a computer, or at least to a
microcomputer or sophisticated pocket calculator. The statistical
software which is readily available has taken much of the drudgery
out of statistics. There are some remarks on using a computer in
Appendix E.5. I have amended the text in a number of places to make
it clear that the reader need no longer worry too much about some
computational details, although there is much to be said for working
through some of the methods in detail at least once in order to
understand fully what is going on.
I am grateful to many people for constructive comments on earlier
editions and I am always pleased to hear from any reader with new
ideas.
I am indebted to Biometrika trustees for permission to publish
extracts from Biometrika Tables for Statisticians (Appendix B, Table 6)
and to Messrs Oliver and Boyd Ltd, Edinburgh for permission to
publish extracts from Statistical Tables for Biological, Agricultural and
Medical Research (Appendix B, Table 7).
The quotations are, of course, from the works of Charles Lutwidge
Dodgson, better known as Lewis Carroll.
C h r is t o p h e r C h a t f ie l d
Bath University
May, 1989
11 Preface
Part one
Introduction
Example 1
The thrust of a rocket engine was measured at ten-minute intervals
while being run at the same operating conditions. The following thirty
observations were recorded (in newtons x 10 ^):
15 Outline of statistics
Example 2
The numbers of cosmic particles striking an apparatus in forty con
secutive periods of one minute were recorded as follows.
3 0 01 0 2 1 0 1 1
0 3 4 1 2 0 2 0 3 1
10 12 0 2 1 0 1 2
3 1 00 2 1 0 3 1 2
The observations vary between zero and four, with zero and one
observed more frequently than two, three and four. Again there is
experimental uncertainty since we cannot exactly predict what the
next observation would be. However, we expect that it will also be
between zero and four and that it is more likely to be a zero or a one
than anything else. In Chapter 4 we will see that there is indeed a
pattern in this data even though individual observations cannot be
predicted.
Example 3
Twenty refrigerator motors were run to destruction under advanced
stress conditions and the times to failure (in hours) were recorded as
follows.
16 Outline of statistics
A scientific experiment has some or all of the following character
istics.
(1) The physical laws governing the experiment are not entirely under
stood.
(2) The experiment may not have been done before, at least success
fully, in which case the instrumentation and technique are not fully
developed.
(3) There are strong incentives to run the smallest number of the
cheapest tests as quickly as possible.
(4) The experimenter may not be objective, as for example when an
inventor tests his own invention or when a company tests competitive
products.
(5) Experimental results are unexpected or disappointing. (Engineers
explain disappointing results as illustrating Murphy’s law. The
corresponding law for statistics might be phrased ‘if two events are
equally likely to occur, the worse will happen’.)
(6) Although experimental uncertainty may be present, many industrial
situations require decisions to be made without additional testing or
theoretical study.
To illustrate how statistics can help at different stages of an experi
ment, let us assume that we have been given the task of improving the
performance of a space pump. The basic design of this machine is
illustrated in Figure 1: gas is passing through the pump which is
driven by an electric motor.
The first step is to study the current technology. Statistical methods
are never a substitute for understanding the physical laws governing
inlet
temperature..^
pressure
outlet
temperature
pressure
Figure 1 Diagram of a space pump
17 Outline of statistics
the problem under consideration; rather statistics is a tool for the
scientist in the same sense as differential equations and digital
computers.
The second step is to define the objective of the test program as
precisely as possible. For example we may be interested in improving
flow, pressure rise or efficiency, or reducing weight or noise. Alterna
tively we may be interested in improving the reliability of the machine
by increasing the time between breakdowns.
The objective being defined, a list of variables or factors can be
made which will vary or be varied during the test program. In the space-
pump experiment, the variables include power, inlet temperature, inlet
pressure and speed. The test program must be designed to find the best
way of choosing successive values for the different factors. The problems
involved in designing an experiment are discussed in Chapters 10 and
11.
In order to see if the objective is being achieved, we look at the outputs
or responses. In the space-pump example, these include pressure rise,
flow, efficiency and reliability. Note that these responses are probably
interconnected. For example it may be pointless to increase the flow if,
as a result, the efficiency drops or the reliability falls off (that is, the
pump breaks down more frequently).
During the experiment, measurements of the factors and responses
will be made. The article being tested should be instrumented to obtain
the most precise and accurate data. The problems of instrumentation
are discussed in Chapter 9. The analysis of the resulting data should
attempt to determine not only the individual effect of each variable on
the responses, but also the joint effects of several variables, the inter
actions. The process of estimating these effects is called inference. These
estimates should have known statistical properties such as a lack of
systematic error (called unbiasedness). Finally any conclusions or
recommendations should be given together with a measure of the risk
involved and/or the possible error in the estimates.
In order to carry out the above procedure successfully it is usually
helpful to set up a mathematical model to describe the physical situation.
This model is an attempt to formulate the system in mathematical
terms and may, for example, consist of a series of formulae connecting
the variables of interest. This model may involve unknown coefficients
or parameters which have to be estimated from the data. After this
has been done, the next step is to test the validity of the model. Finally,
if the model is sound, the solution to the problem can be obtained from
it.
18 Outline of statistics
The key point to note in this Chapter is that experimental
uncertainty is present in most practical situations and that there is
nothing abnormal about it. Despite its presence, the study of statistics
enables us to collect, analyse and interpret data in a sensible way.
Additional reading
Many other books provide an introduction to statistical techniques.
The references in the list given below have been selected to provide a
non-technical easy-to-read approach. They motivate the subject,
provide examples where statistics has been used successfully, and also
give examples where statistics has been used in a misleading way. The
book by Darrell Huff is particularly amusing and could profitably be
read by everyone. The book by Peter Sprent explains the key prin
ciples of Applied Statistics, and would serve as a useful complement
to a more formal text book such as this one. The text book by Andrew
Ehrenberg adopts a refreshing non-technical approach with the
emphasis on improving numeracy.
19 Outline of statistics
Chapter 2
Simple ways of summarizing
data
2.1 Introduction
The subject ‘Statistics’ is concerned with collecting reliable data and then
analysing and interpreting them. We begin by introducing some simple
methods for summarizing data which are often given the collective title
‘Descriptive Statistics’. They include plotting appropriate graphs and
calculating various summary statistics, possibly using a computer package
such as MINITAB. Note that some supplementary material has been
added in Appendices D .l to D.4 and E.3. The idea is to get a ‘feel’ for
the data and pick out their most important features. The quality of the
data should also be assessed by looking for errors, outliers (see section
11.9), missing observations and other peculiarities. This preliminary
analysis is always advisable before choosing a more advanced statistical
technique, and may prove sufficient anyway.
It may seem strange to consider data analysis before data collection but
it turns out that the topics are easier to learn in this order. Nevertheless,
it is clear that the selected sample must be chosen to be representative of
the population from which it is drawn. Statistics will then enable us to
make deductions about the whole population from the information in the
sample.
The data usually consist of a series of measurements on one or more
quantities of interest, called variates. A discrete variate can only take a
sequence of distinct values which are usually integers. For example, the
number of cosmic particles striking a recorder in one minute may be 0, 1 ,
2, . . . . The number U cannot be observed. On the other hand, a
continuous variate can take any value in a specified interval on a
continuous scale. For example, the thrust of a rocket engine can be any
non-negative number. In practice the recorded values of a continuous
variate will be rounded to a specified number of significant figures and
Number of
cosmic particles Frequency
0 13
I 13
2 8
3 5
4 I
Total 40
21 Graphical methods
> i5r
^0h
....... 4 ..............
number of cosmic particles
Example 1
The heights of 100 students were measured to the nearest inch and
tabulated as follows.
Table 2
Height Number of
(inches) students
60-62 6
63-65 15
66-68 40
69-71 30
72-74 9
Total 100
The data were divided into five groups as shown and the frequencies
with which the different groups occur form a frequency distribution.
The data can be plotted as a histogram in which rectangles are con
structed with areas proportional to the frequency of each group.
Example 2
Plot a histogram of the data given in Example 1, Chapter 1. The
smallest thrust observed is 989*4 and the largest 1014*5. The difference
between them is about twenty-five units so that three units is a reason
able class interval. Then we will have about ten class intervals. Group
the observations into the ten intervals as in Table 3.
23 Graphical methods
Table 3
Frequency distribution of thrust
Number of
Class interval observations
987-990 2
990-993 1
993-996 3
996-999 5
999-1002 7
1002-1005 6
1005-1008 3
1008-1011 1
1011-1014 1
1014-1017 1
(a)
(b)
'liilL v
25 Graphical methods
Frequency curve. Where there are a large number of observations
the histogram may be replaced with a smooth curve drawn through
the midpoints of the tops of each box. Such a curve is called a frequency
curve.
Example 3
Plot the cumulative frequency diagram of the data given in Example 1,
Chapter 1.
Using Table 3 it is easy to calculate the cumulative frequencies at
the divisions between the class intervals.
Cumulative Relative
Thrust frequency frequency
987 0 0000
990 2 0-067
993 3 0-100
996 6 0-200
999 11 0-367
1002 18 0-600
1005 24 0-800
1008 27 0-900
1011 28 0-933
1014 29 0-967
1017 30 1-000
27 Graphical methods
2.3 Summary statistics
In addition to the graphical techniques, it is useful to calculate
some figures to summarize the data. Any quantity which is calculated
from the data is called a statistic (to be distinguished from the subject
statistics). Thus a statistic is a function of the measurements or observa
tions.
Most simple statistics can be divided into two types; firstly quantities
which are ‘typical’ of the data and secondly quantities which measure
the variability of the data. The former are usually called measures of
location and the latter are usually called measures of spread.
The mean. Suppose that n measurements have been taken on the variate
under investigation, and these are denoted by Xj, X2, . . . , The
(arithmetic) mean of the observations is given by
Xi + X 2 + . . .-hX,
X = ”= y ^ 2.1
n’
Example 4
Find the average thrust of the rocket engine from the data in Example 1,
Chapter 1.
999* 1 +1003-2+ ... +1000*9
We find X = _
- 1000- 6.
The die is made of cork and the spots painted white. A small round
bottle is procured, the die is placed in it and the bottle is filled with
water. Be sure to have enough water to prevent any air bubbles
when it is corked tightly. The cork is then sealed in the bottle. If there
is an air bubble, the cork die will not work well.
If the bottle is held bottom up, the cork die will spin around and
float up against the bottom of the bottle where the number of spots
can be seen. It is impossible to manipulate the die to turn up any
desired spots, this being left entirely to chance. A number of bottles
can be prepared so that any of the dice games can be played.—
Contributed by Henry J. Marion, Pontiac, Michigan.
Small Hook for Hanging a Picture
Cordknots
hammocks may be made in two or more different ways, the
being formed by the simple overhand tie, Fig. 1; the flat reef
knot, Fig. 2; the Solomon’s knot, Fig. 3, or by the triple throw-over,
Fig. 4; or they can be knotted by the process known as netting, Fig.
5, in which a special needle, or shuttle, is used.
When Making a Hammock With the Simple Overhand, Flat Reef, or
Solomon’s Knot, Loop All the Pairs of Cords at the Center about a Rod
In using any one of the first three methods of making the knots it is
necessary to have cords arranged in pairs and long enough to reach
from one end of the hammock to the other, allowing only sufficient
length for the take-up in tying the knots and the spread of the
meshes. The overhand knot is large, and the Solomon’s knot is a
little unwieldy, but is considered more beautiful when tied. The flat
reef knot is small, is easily tied and will not slip. The netting process
has a good knot and has the advantage of a short single cord, as the
meshes are made independently and the cord is carried on the
netting needle.
It is a great advantage, when making a hammock with the simple
overhand, the flat reef, or the Solomon’s knot, to loop all the pairs of
cords at the center about a rod, Fig. 6—which may be any stick such
as an old broom handle—knotting from the center toward each end,
one side being tied, and then the other. When the first pairs are
being tied, the opposite ends should be looped up together out of the
way. Even half the length of a hammock makes a long cord to be
drawn through each time a knot is tied, and each string can be
wound about the fingers into a little bundle and secured with a half
hitch, using the same cord, and left hanging, as shown in Fig. 7,
allowing sufficient cord free to throw large loops in the tying, and to
make about 10 additional meshes. About 3 ft. would be a good
length to be left free.
It will be necessary to have 24 pairs of cords—48 cords in all—
each 18 ft. long to make a hammock by the first two methods of tying
the knots. Seine twine of medium-hard twist and 24-ply can be
obtained from a store carrying sporting goods, and is about the best
material to use for this purpose. When these pairs of cords are
looped on the center rod, and the rod has been anchored to a wall,
as shown in Fig. 8, begin by placing the mesh stick, or rather the
mesh post, Fig. 9, between the first pair of cords, A and B, at the left
end of the center rod, as in Fig. 8 and Fig. 6. The simple device
illustrated in Fig. 9 is very useful for tying any one of the three first-
described knots. The device needs no explanation other than the
illustration. It will be seen that there are two sizes on the top of the
post; the smaller is for the first time across only. The mesh post
should be of convenient height for a person when sitting on an
ordinary chair. One foot rests on the base as the tying proceeds, but
there is no pulling over, as the tie draws both ways on the post, this
also doing away with the pull on the center rod.
Fig. 1 Fig. 2
Fig. 4 Fig. 3
Fig. 5
The cord to the right, B, is taken in the right hand and thrown over
the left cord A, Fig. 8, and is held by the left hand. The left cord A is
then tucked down behind the right, as shown in Fig. 10. If the right
cord goes over in making the first loop, the same cord B must also
go over in the second throw, as in Fig. 11, in order to have a proper
square knot that will not slip. The end of A is then tucked under B, as
shown by the dotted lines. This makes a very serviceable knot for
the hammock, but can be also used for other purposes. The knot is
shown in Fig. 2. Draw it up tightly, very hard, for knotting is not worth
much if it is not tied well.
In case the simple overhand knot is preferred, the mesh post is
placed between the first pair as before, and cords A and B are
brought to the front as in Fig. 12, but are carried parallel into a large
loop that is thrown over as illustrated, then tucked up through as
indicated by the dotted lines. The thumb and first finger of the left
hand now slide up to the point P, while the right hand pulls up the
loop as it nears the finish, the thumb and first finger crowding the
loop down hard against the mesh post. The small part is used for the
first row across. The knot formed is shown in Fig. 1.
Fig. 6 Fig. 10 Fig. 7
Fig. 9
Fig. 8 Fig. 11
The Mesh Post Has Two Sizes on Its Upper End, the Smaller for Knotting the
First Row of Meshes, and the Other for the Remaining Rows. This Illustration
Also Shows the Manner of Tying the Knots
After tying the first pair of cords using the knot preferred, slip the
first mesh so made off the tying post and place the post between C
and D, which is the next, or second, pair. Tie the second pair and
pass on to the third pair, which is E and F. Continue moving and
tying until all the 24 pairs of cords have been similarly knotted in their
first mesh. The last knotting will be the twenty-fourth pair, which is
represented by the cords marked Y and Z. Instead of tying cords of
the same pairs on the return trip across, one cord Y of the twenty-
fourth pair is tied with one cord X of the twenty-third pair, and the
other cord W of the twenty-third pair is tied with the cord V of the
twenty second pair, and so on across the series.
On the second row of tying, the post is first placed between cords
Y and X and they are knotted together, but instead of tying about the
small part of the post the larger size is used. After cords Y and X
have been tied, cords W and V are combined. It will be seen that this
is tying the pairs together instead of combining the two cords of the
same pair. The third time across the combinations are the same as
in the first row. The large mesh is used on all but the first row. The
alternations of rows is continued until the cords are tied to within 2¹⁄₂
ft. of the end.
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Tying the Overhand Knot and How to Run the First and Second Rows Across
Pull out the center rod, insert it in the second row of meshes,
loosen the ends that were looped up and begin the knotting of the
opposite ends of the cords. When both sides are completed to within
2¹⁄₂ ft. of the ends, the center rod is removed and inserted in the last
row of meshes. Another simple device will be found efficient, which
consists of a board, 30 in. long, three or more inches wide and 1 in.
thick, with three nails driven in slanting, as shown in Fig. 14, to
prevent the ring and rod from slipping off as the tying proceeds. One
2¹⁄₂-in. galvanized ring will be required for each end. The ring is
attached to the single nail at the end with a string. This will be found
better than just slipping the ring over the nail, as it is necessary to
have a little more play in putting the cords through for the tying. The
distance from the rod to the ring should be 2 ft. The tie is made in
pairs as before, one cord going under and the other over the side of
the ring, using the flat reef knot. There will be a few inches of ends
remaining after the tie is made and these are brought back to the
main body of the cord and wound with an extra cord used for that
purpose. The winding is started by looping the end of the extra cord,
or string, about the whole bundle of cord together with the ends,
pulling tightly and tying securely with the flat reef knot. This is
illustrated in Fig. 15. The winding should be about 1¹⁄₂ in. long where
the turned-back ends are cut off. Each time the cord is wound about
the bundle it should be looped through its own winding and drawn
tightly. This is practically the buttonhole loop. To finish the winding
the cord should be given a double looping through its own winding;
then with an awl, or other pointed tool, work a way through the under
side of the other windings so that the end may be brought out farther
back and pulled tightly, to prevent unwinding when the pull comes on
the hammock. Attach the ring to the opposite end in the same
manner and the hammock is complete.
Attaching the Rings to the Ends of the Cords and the Binding near the
Rings: All the Pairs of Cords are Looped about a Rod in the Center, and the
Knots are Made toward the Ends
The edge can be bound the same as a tennis net, or a rope can
be run through the outside meshes lengthwise, as desired. A very
pretty effect can be obtained by knotting, in a similar manner to the
body of the hammock, an apron fringe for the sides.
Homemade Section Liner
For the rapid and uniform hatching of cross sections this little
device will be found to give results equaling most of the high-priced
instruments that can be purchased. It consists of a hardwood block
used in connection with a 45° triangle. The corners are cut to permit
the triangle to slide the desired distance; then, by alternately sliding
the triangle and block with the left hand, equal spacings can be
drawn without measurements of any kind.
Block Used in a Triangle to Move It at Equal Distances for Making Section
Lines