18CV745

URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING

Course Title: URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND PLANNING
As per Choice Based Credit System (CBCS) scheme] SEMESTER: VII
Subject Code: 18CV745 IA Marks 40
Number of Lecture Hours/Week 03 Exam Marks 60
Total Number of Lecture Hours 40 Exam Hours 03
CREDITS –03 Total Marks- 100
Course Objectives:
This course will enable students to;

1. Understand and apply basic concepts and methods of urban transportation planning.
2. Apprise about the methods of designing, conducting and administering surveys to provide the data
required for transportation planning.
3. Understand the process of developing an organized mathematical modelling approach to solve
select urban transportation planning problem.
4. Excel in use of various types of models used for travel forecasting, prediction of future travel
Patterns.

Module -1
Urban transport planning:
Urbanization, urban class groups, transportation problems and identification, impacts of
transportation, urban transport system planning process, modeling techniques in planning. Urban
mass transportation systems: urban transit problems, travel demand, types of transit systems, public,
private, para-transit Transport, mass and rapid transit systems, BRTS and Metro rails, capacity,
merits and comparison of systems, coordination, types of coordination. L1, L2, L3
Module -2
Data Collection and Inventories:
Collection of data – Organization of surveys and Analysis, Study Area, Zoning, Types and Sources
of Data, Road Side Interviews, Home Interview Surveys, Commercial Vehicle Surveys, Sampling
Techniques, Expansion Factors, Accuracy Checks, Use of Secondary Sources, Economic data –
Income – Population – Employment – Vehicle Owner Ship. L1, L2, L3
Module -3
Trip Generation & Distribution:
UTPS Approach, Trip Generation Analysis: Zonal Models, Category Analysis, Household Models,
Trip Attraction models, Commercial Trip Rates; Trip Distribution by Growth Factor Methods.
Problems on above L3, L4
Module -4
Trip Distribution:
Gravity Models, Opportunity Models, Time Function Iteration Models. Travel demand modeling:
gravity model, opportunity models, Desire line diagram. Modal split analysis. Problems on above
L2,L3, L4, L5
Module -5
Traffic Assignment:
Diversion Curves; Basic Elements of Transport Networks, Coding, Route Properties, Path Building
Criteria, Skimming Tree, All-or-Nothing Assignment, Capacity Restraint Techniques, Reallocation
of Assigned Volumes, Equilibrium Assignment. Introduction to land use planning models, land use
and transportation interaction. L2, L3, L4, L5
Course outcomes:
After studying this course, students will be able to:
1. Design, conduct and administer surveys to provide the data required for transportation planning.
2. Supervise the process of data collection about travel behavior and analyze the data for use in
Transport planning.
3. Develop and calibrate modal split, trip generation rates for specific types of land use
developments.
4. Adopt the steps that are necessary to complete a long-term transportation plan.

Program Objectives:

1. Engineering knowledge
2. Problem analysis
3. Interpretation of data

Text Books:

*Kadiyali.L.R., ‘Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning’, Khanna Publishers, New Delhi.
*Hutchinson, B.G, ‘Introduction to Urban System Planning’, McGraw Hill.
*Khisty C.J., ‘Transportation Engineering – An Introduction’ Prentice Hall.
*Papacostas, ‘Fundamentals of Transportation Planning’, Tata McGraw Hill.
Reference Books:

*Mayer M and Miller E, ‘Urban Transportation Planning: A decision oriented Approach’, McGraw
Hill.
*Bruton M.J., ‘Introduction to Transportation Planning’, Hutchinson of London.
*Dicky, J.W., ‘Metropolitan Transportation Planning’, Tata McGraw Hill.
Module -1
Urban transport planning: Urbanization, urban class groups, transportation problems and
identification, impacts of transportation, urban transport system planning process, modeling
techniques in planning. Urban mass transportation systems: urban transit problems, travel demand,
types of transit systems, public private, para-transit transport, mass and rapid transit systems, BRTS
and Metro rails, capacity, merits and comparison of systems, coordination, types of coordination.

INTRODUCTION
It is an element of comprehensive urban planning intended to reach certain goals related to the
development of urban areas. UTP begins from the governing body clearly defining the problem that
the ensuring efforts will try to solve. The process of planning has evolved in response to the
changing demands.
It is a continuous process for developing, in advance courses of action for establishing the urban
goals by maintaining the best level and balance of all modes of transportation.
TRANSPORT PLANNING:
It is a systematic technique of understanding traffic and transportation characteristics with the goals
of producing safe, efficient and convenient system which will meet the current and future needs &
preferences of the community and shall also promote social and economic development.
OBJECTIVES OF UTP:
 To have most suitable type of transport system out of the available funds.
 To develops an integrated road transport system.
 To preserve and to improve the environment.
 To reduce road accidents.
 To establish priorities of the construction and maintenance of roads.
 To know how to and when to improve the old roads or to construct new ones to meet the
future needs.
 To promote economic activity and efficiency through reduced cost of the transportation and
optimal development.
 To co-ordinate the total transport development by emphasis on inter-modal concept.
 To develop phased programs or stage construction techniques for the promotion of urban and
regional development.
 To satisfy the current and future travel demands.
 To optimize expenditure and revenue to be collected through taxation etc ,ensuring that the
benefits and cost of the road transport programs fall equitably on the community.
SCOPE OF UTP:
 It occupies a high place in the modern life. The various advancements in life are influenced
by transportation to a large extent.
 TP is science that studies the problems that arise in providing transport facilities in an urban,
regional or national setting & to prepare systematic basis for planning such facilities.
  Since the developed countries where these signs are used are mainly urban, oriented,
therefore the emphasis is more on UTP. The principles of UTP can be applied to regional or
national transport planning with due changes wherever required.
 It is an important part of overall town and country planning since it deals mainly with the
transport network which is an important channel of communication.
 To understand the nature of problem, due to changes in the life style and to formulate
proposals for the safe and efficient movement of goods and people from one place to another
is the subject of transport planning.
 Town and country planning deals with study of urban or country system with various
activities using the facilities linked by communication channels.
INTER-DEPENDENCE OF LAND USE AND TRAFFIC:
Mitchell & Rapkin stated that “urban traffic is a function of land use”. This statement introduced
new line of thinking in urban transportation & land use planning.
Till then (1954), transportation planning was limited to the measurement of traffic, using struts,
identifying those sections, where the present traffic has exceeded the capacity & undertaking
improvement measure to reduce congestion and for the smooth flow of the traffic.
Till that time, approaches by the engineers towards planning were short-term. Mitchell and Rapkin
observed that various activities based on land are called land-use generated ones/activities.
It includes various measures such as
 Regulation & control of traffic
 Improvement in movement of traffic
Buchanan supported the relationship between the traffic and buildings in the town. He stated that in
towns, traffic takes place because of the buildings and in fact all movements in a town have an
origin and destination in a building.
Traffic pattern depends on how the buildings are arranged & commuter flow depends on the location
and size of the work place and of home areas. School traffic is governed by location of schools and
house areas.
Since transport is a function of land use similarly land use is also a function of transport. As new
system of transport are built land use pattern has close relationship with the accessibility and inter-
dependence is the key-note of modern transport planning.
Early Detroit area transportation study demonstrated the empirical validity of relationship b/w
transport and land use.
Penn-Jersey transportation study tested the reciprocal relationship of land use and transport. These
concepts are till now used in a no. of important transportation studies in many of the principle towns
and cities all over the world.
SYSTEM APPROACH TO TRANSPORT PLANNING:
Transport planning operation research field is applied which mainly deals with optimizing the
performance of a system.
A system is defined as a complex whole, an organized whole, consisting of set of connected things
or parts, whose components and interconnections are vital to the operation of the system.
Transport planning process starts with decision to adopt planning as a tool to achieve certain desired
goals & objectives. After the goals and objectives are defined, solutions are generated by
considering the various constraints & potentials, and these solutions are evaluated after thorough
analysis & the best among these are chosen for the implementation.
After implementation, the system is studied in its operation & its performance is assessed. Based on
this assessment, it may be necessary to go back to certain stages of planning & repeat the sequence.
SYSTEM APPROACH TO TRANSPORT PLANNING:

Decision to adopt planning

Problem, definition, formulation of goals

↓problems, constraints,
Potentials, forecasting

Solution generation

↓
Solution analysis

Evaluation of possible alternations & choice

Implementation

Operation
↓
Performance assessment and review
STAGES IN TRANSPORT PLANNING:
The 5 important stages in transport planning are: -
 Survey & analysis of existing condition
 Forecast, analysis of future condition & planning syntheses
 Evaluation
 Program adaption & implementation
 Continuing studies.
STAGES IN TRANSPORT PLANNING:
i. Survey and analysis of existing condition:
The survey and inventory starts with the definition of the survey area and division of the area into
small units to study the movement pattern and these units are called as zones. At this stage, the goals
are set to provide direction to the planning process. Goals are formulated to give the relevant social,
legal, aesthetic, authentic, political, economic and technical considerations. The commonly formed
goals are as follows.
 Minimum description of the general environment.
 Revitalization of public transport.
 High benefit cost ratio
 Operational feasibility.
 Minimum demolition of housing.
 Removal of through traffic from urban and residential areas.
 Qualitative compatibility with general urban structure.
 Inventory of existing travel pattern includes: -
a) Collection of data on origin and destinations of the journey –
by home interview, road side interview, registration number plate survey,pre-paid
post card survey ,screen lines and cordon surveys
b) Collection of data on traffic volume.-
on various links in the existing network, including classification of vehicles, variation
in traffic volume during the days of the week and hours of the day
c) Collection of data on movement of goods vehicles.
d) Collection of data on movement by rail Transit
e) Parking characteristics- supply, usage ,duration and method of charging
f) Collection of data on movement of public the repot buses & coaches
 Inventory of existing transport facility consist of:
a) Inventory of streets forming transport network-including dimensions, type and
condition of surface ,capacity ,control devices, volume of traffic ,location of utilities,
pedestrian facilities etc.
b) Studies on travel time by different modes.
c) Inventory of rail transit facilities.
d) Accident data
e) Physical inventory of airports
f) Physical inventory of ports & harbour facilities.
g) Inventory of public transport buses –their operating speeds,headways,schedules,
Capacity, terminals, passengers carried etc.
h) parking inventory-on street and off street ,loading and unloading facilities for trucks
  Inventory of land use & economic activity:
a) It consists of information on land use type whether it is residential, industrial,
commercial or recreational etc. & the intensity of various zones and vacant land
b) Zoning laws in operation.
c) Population statistics, usually from census data.
d) Employment pattern.
e) House hold structure including family income, car ownership, family size, sex etc.
f) School attendance.
ii. FORECAST, ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CONDITIONS AND PLAN SYNTHESIS:
 Transport plans are generally of long range (20-25 years), therefore it is necessary to predict
the travel pattern and needs for the future year. Future transport demand is tied up with future
economic activity & future land use.
 Economic activity is predicted in no. of ways, a simple method is to extend the past trends
related to various parameters of it. More sophisticated methods like input-output modal
analysis is used by Chicago area transportation study.
 Population forecast can be done from the study of past trends. More detailed studies of birth,
death & migration data helps in formulating population prediction modals. It is also
necessary to know the age distribution, family size & no. of households.
 The other stages like trip generation, trip distribution, trip assignment and modal split by
using the future predicted parameters governing the travel pattern and then the respective
modals for the base year are formulated.
 These data are fitted into a tentative network planned for the horizon year. The output from
the above stages yields the flow on each link of the network, speed & level of service
afforded by the planned facility.
iii. EVALUATION:
 In an urban system, a no. of alternative transport plans are available for a given set of goals
and policies,. To choose the best from these, it is necessary to evaluate each of these to see
how it fulfills the desired objectives.
 Benefit cost techniques are often used to evaluate the alternatives. If it is necessary, then the
plans are to be revised and, we should go back to the initial stage, to evolve further
alternatives.
iv. PROGRAM ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION:
 The best alternative found from the evaluation study is selected for adoption and
implementation. The stages in which the project is to be implemented ,is to be decided w.r.t
the financial resources. Then the necessary organization for handling the project is built up
and the work is executed.
v. CONTINUING STUDY:
 As the transport planning is a dynamic and complex process there is no finality for the plan.
The urban system & the people involved in it, are not deterministic and are ground by
random behavior which involves uncertainty in the system. Technology and preferences of
people may change.
 Plans and policies which are relevant today may not remain so in future content. Therefore, it
requires continuous review and updating of the plan and the process is one of constant
iteration & feedback. Periodic surveys must be carried out to find the trends in travel
patterns, journey times and other relevant factors required.
CITIZEN PARTICIPATION:
  Since the transport plans are intended to serve the community & fulfill their needs, therefore
it is necessary to consult the affected people in the community & given them a voice in the
formulation of decisions. The policies and goals any need to be refined as a result of such
consultation. It is desired to establish rapport with community from the beginning so that
lesser or minimum no. of controversies and public criticism results.
DIFFICULTIES IN TRANSPORT PROCESS:
 In view of the complexities involves, transport planning process is a difficult exercise which
involves various factors and computational procedure even through some advances has been
made in modal building to accurately synthesize the travel demand but the probabilistic
nature of public behavior makes the plan go away.
 The dynamic behaviour of urban system makers the where process iterative with continuous
need for review and feedback.
TRANSPORTATION SURVEY:
 A transportation plan requires collection of data on all the factors influencing the travel
pattern. This work involves no. of surveys like study of existing travel pattern, existing
transport facilities, existing land use & economic activities. It involves voluminous work & it
takes around 2 years for its completion-since it involves higher cost, it requires proper
organization & careful planning.
DEFINITION OF STUDY AREA:
 First, the study area must be defined for which transportation facilities are planned. The
planning can be at national, regional or urban level. For transportation planning at urban
level, the study area must include the whole area consisting the existing & potential built up
areas.
 The imaginary line representing the boundary of the study area is known as external cardon.
The area inside the external carbon line determines the travel pattern & is surveyed in detail.
The land use &
 Economic activities are studied in detail and intensively to find the travel characteristics.
 But the area outside the external carbon line is studied to a lesser degree.
SELECTION OF EXTERNAL CORDON LINE:
External cordon line(ECL) for UTP study is governed by the following factors:
 It must circumscribe all areas that are already built up & also those are likely to be built up or
developed during the study period.
 ECL must contain all areas of systematic daily life of people oriented towards city centre and
should in effect be the commuter – shed.
 It must be continuous & uniform in its course, so that movement cross it only once.
 The line must interact the roads where it is safe and convenient to carry out traffic surveys.
  ECL must be compatible with previous studies of the area for which the studies are planned
for future.
ZONING:
 The defined study area is sub-divided into smaller areas called zones to facilitate the special
quantification of land use and economic factors influencing travel pattern.
 Zoning helps in geographically associating the origin & destinations of the travel-zones
within a study area are called internal zones & those outside the study area are known as
external zones. For large sub-divided into smaller zones. Zones can be sub-divided into sub-
zones depending on the land use.
 A convenient coding system for zones is used. The study area is divided into a section with
the central business district (CBD) designated as zero & the remaining 8 zones are
designated from 1-8 in a clockwise manner. The prefix a is used for external zones.
 Each sector is divided into 10 zones with numbers from 0-9. Therefore, a system of 3 digits
denotes a sub-zone. For example: a sub-zone in that zone.
FACTORS GOVERNING SELECTION OF ZONES:
 Anticipated changes in the land use must also be considered.
 Zones must have homogenous land use in order to reflect the associated trip making
behaviour.
 Zones must not be too large or too small.
 Zones must have a regular geometric form for easy determination of centroid which
represents the origin & destination of the travel.
 Natural or physical barrier like canals, rivers etc. can form convenient zone boundaries.
 The sub-division must closely follow that adopted by other bodies for data collection to
facilitate co-relation of data.
 Only when origin & destination zones reflect properly the land use and quantified accurately.
 Zone boundaries must preferably be water sheds of trip making.
 Zones must be compatible with screen lines & carbon lines.
 Sectors must represent catchment of trips generated on a primary route.
TYPES OF SURVEYS:
The survey data is required for the following basic movements.
 Internal - internal
 Internal – external
 External – internal
 External – external
 Basic movements in transportation survey
 For large urban areas internal – internal travel is high & it is low for small areas with
population < 5000. Internal ~ internal travel is suited by home interview technique with
checks by screen line surveys. Internal ~ external, external ~ internal & external ~ external
travels are studied by carbon surveys whereas internal ~ external trips can also be surveyed
by home interview technique.
 The surveys can collect data at home, during the trip or at the destination end of the trip. Data
collected at the home can be wide ranging & it covers all the trips made during a given
period data collected during the trip has limited scope, as it gives the data w.r.t that particular
trip only. At the destination end direct interview technique provide data on the demand for
parking facilities and major traffic attracters like factories, offices, commercial
establishments.
The various surveys carried are:
i. Home interview survey
ii. Commercial vehicle survey
iii. Taxi survey
iv. Road side interview survey
v. Post card questionnaire
vi. Registration, number plate survey
vii. Public transport survey
viii. Tags on vehicle.
Inventory of travel pattern:
Already discussed earlier

INVENTORY OF TRANSPORT FACILITIES:

It is done to find the efficiencies in the present system & an extent to which they need to be
impounded. It consists of
i. Inventory of struts forming the transport network.
ii. Traffic composition, volume, peak & off-peak hours.
iii. Studies on travel time by different modes.
iv. Inventory of public transport buses.
v. Inventory of rail transport facilities
vi. Parking inventory.
Inventory of land and economic:
Already discussed earlier
TRIP GENERATION:
The first phase of transportation planning process deals with surveys, data collection and
inventory. The next phase is the analysis of the data so collected and building models to
describe the mathematical relationship that can be discerned in the trip making behaviour. The
analysis andmodel building phase start with the step commonly known as trip generation.
Trip generation is a general term used in the transportation planning process to cover the field
of calculating the number of trip ends in a given area.
The trip generation aims at predicting the total number of trips generated and attracted to each
zone of the study area. In other words, this stage answers the questions to “how many trips”
originate at each zone, from the data on household andsocioeconomic attributes.
The objective of the trip generation stage is to understand the reasons behind the trip making
behaviour and to produce mathematical relationships to synthesize the trip- making pattern on
the basis of the observed trips, land-use data and household characteristics.
Trip
Trip is a one-way person movement by a mechanised mode of transport, having two trip ends,
anorigin and destination. The first activity in travel-demand forecasting is to identify the various
trip types important to a particular transport-planning study. The trip types studied in a
particular area depend on the types of transport-planning issues to be resolved. The first level of
trip classification used normally is a broad grouping into home-based and non-home-based
trips.
Types of trip [Classification of Trips]
Trips can be classified by trip purpose, trip time of the day, and by person type.
 Home Based Trip and Non Home-based trips
If either origin or destination of a trip is the home of the trip maker then such trips are called
home- based trips Typical home-based trips are the journey to work, shopping, and school. The
amount of home-based trips varies from 80 to 90 percent of total travel.
Non- Home-based trips are those trips that do not have either the origin or destination end at a
household Examples of non-home-based trips are trips between work and shop and business
tripsbetween two places of employment.

Home Based Trip: One of the trip end is home.

Example: A trip from home to office.
Example: Trips between home and work, home and school, home and shopping centre, etc.

R W

R : Residential area W : Work place

Non Home based trips: None of the trip end is home.
Example: A trip from office to Shopping Mall.
Non home-based trips are those having neither end at the home of the person making the
trip.
Example - Business trips between two places

S W
 S- Shopping W – work place

The above definitions are further classified by the following examples. Consider a trip from
home to work and the return trip from work to home. Both these trips are home based trips,
because one end of the trip is at home. Both these trips are considered to have been generated at
the home zone and attracted to the work zone. We thus have two work-purpose trip end
generations in the home zone and two work- purpose attractions in the work zone.
Trip production is applicable for trips generated by residential zones where these trips may
be trip origins or destinations
A trip attraction is a non- home end of a home-based trip. Trip production & trip attraction
generates a trip pr constitute trip generation.
In the sketch shown a trip from to work and return trip from work to home is shown.
 Both the trips are home based as one end of the trip is home. So, these trips are considered to
be generated at home and attracted to the work zone. Therefore, we have two work purpose
trip end generation in the home zone and two work purpose attraction in the work zone.
 In the sketch (2) shown below, the trip from place of work to the shop and return trip to the
place of work is shown. In this both the trips are non-home based as no end of the trip is
home of the person making the trip. Both these trips are considered to be generated at the
work place and attracted to the shop zone. Therefore, two shopping purpose trip end
generations in the work zone & two shopping purpose attraction in the shopping zone.
Therefore total no. of trip productions or generations is equal to total no. of attraction.
 Generally, trips are classified for urban areas depending on its size, purpose for which
demand forecast is to be used & the dominance of the particular trip in the area.
 Trip generations and trip attractions.
A generation is the home end of any trip that has one end at home (home based trips) and
is the origin of a trip with neither end home based (non home based trip). i.e., Trip
generation is defined as all the trips of home based or as the origin of the non home based
trips. An attraction is the non-home end of a home based trip and is the destination of a trip
with neither end homebased.
 To understand with an example consider a single worker on a typical working day making a
trip from his house which is in zone P to his office in Zone Q. Thus his trip origin will be zone
P and trip destination will be zone Q. For the return trip from office to house his trip origin
will be zone Q and trip Destination will be Zone P. Thus from the above Example it can be
understood that the term Origin and Destination are defined in terms of direction of the
trip while Production and Attraction in terms of land use associated with each trip end. Trip
Production is the home end of home based trip and is the origin of trip of non-home based
trip. Trip Attraction is the non-home end of home based trip and is the destination of a non-
home based trip.

 Trips are made for different purposes and a classification of trips by purpose is
necessary.The following are some of the important classes of trip purposes:
o Work Trips
o School Trips
o Shopping Trips
o Social- recreational Trips
o Other Trips
The first two trips are mandatory trips while other trips are discretional trips. The other trip
classencompasses all the trips made for less routine purpose such as health bureaucracy etc.
 Person-type based trips: The travel behavior of an individual is mainly dependent
on itsSocio-Economic attributes. Following are the categories which are usually
employed.
o Income Level- Poor, Middle Class, Rich
o Car Ownership- 0,1,2,3
o Household Size- 1,2,3,4... etc
Factors influencing Trip Generation and Attraction
1. Income
Family income which represents its ability to pay for a journey affects the number of
trips generated by a household. A general trend is that the higher the income the higher
is the trip generation rate.
2. Car ownership
A car represents easy mobility, and hence a car owing household will generate more
trips than a non-car-owing household. By the same reasoning, the more cars there are
in the household, the more the number of trips generated. Of course, number of cars
owned is itself related to the income of the family, which has been listed earlier as a
factor.
3. Family size and composition
The bigger the family, the more trips there are likely to be generated. Apart from the
size, the composition of the family itself is important. For instance, if both the husband
and wife are employed, the trips generated will be more than when only the husband is
 employed. If there are many school-going children, the number of school-purpose trips
will be large. The age structure of the family also governs the trip rates. Old persons
are not expected to generate as many trips as younger ones.
4. Land use Characteristics
Different land uses produce different trip rates. For example, a residential area with a
high density of dwellings can produce more trips than one with a low density of
dwellings. On the other hand,low density areas may represent dwellings of the well-off
society, which may produce a large number of private car trips. The rateable value of
the dwelling and type of dwelling units affect the trip generation rates. The most
important assumption made in transportation planning is that the amount of travel is
dependent on land use.
5. Distance of the zone from the town center
The distance of the zone from the town center is an important determinant of the
amount of travelthat people might like to make to the town center. The farther the town
center, the less the numberof trips are likely to be.
6. Accessibility to public transport system and its efficiency
The accessibility to a public transport system and its efficiency determine to some
extent the desire of persons to make trips. An easily accessible and efficient public
transport system generates moretrips.
7. Employment opportunities, floor space in the industrial and shopping units and offices
The employment potentially of an industrial or shopping unit or an office
establishment directly governs the trip attraction rate. Similarly, another factor to
which the trip attraction rate can be related is the floor space in the premises of
industries, shops and offices.

METHODS OF TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATION

Trip generation models are based upon the following methods:
1. Regression Analysis
 Zonal Regression methods
 Household Regression methods
2. Category Analysis
3. Expansion factor methods

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The most common technique employed in establishing trip generation is multiple linear
regression which fits mathematical relationships between dependent and independent
variable. In the case of trip generation equation, the dependent variable is the number of
trips and the independent variable are the various measurable factors that influence trip
generation like land use and socio-economic characteristics. The general form of the
equation can be expressed in the following form:
 Yp=a1X1+a1X2+a3X3+…….anXn+U
 Yp= number of trips for specified purpose p
 X1, X2, X3,……., Xn=independent variables relating to for example, land-use, socio
economic factors etc.
 a1, a2, a3,……, an= Coefficients of the respective independent variables X1, X2, X3,……., Xn,
obtained by linear regression analysis
 U= Distribution term, which is a constant and representing that portion of the value
of Ypnot explained by the independent variables.
The equation of the above form is developed from the present-day data pertaining to
independent variables and dependent variables and the dependent variables, using
statistical techniques of “least squares “fitting. The equation thus developed is used for
determining the future values of trips, knowing the estimated future values of the
independent variables.

For Example:

Y = 2.18 + 3.404 A + 0.516 H + 0.0119 X1 – 0.343 X2

Where
Y= average trips per occupied
dwelling unit
A= car ownership
H=household size
X1= social rank index
X2= urbanization index
Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and their validity in trip generationanalysis

The statistical theory of Multi linear regression analysis is based on the following
importantassumptions
1. All the variables are independent of each other
2. All the variables are normally distributed
3. All the variables are continuous
4. A liner relationship exists between the dependent variable and the independent variable:
5. Influence of independent variable is additive that is the inclusion of each variable
in theequation contributes a distinct portion of trip numbers.
It is difficult to ensure that the above basic assumptions are satisfied in most of the trip
generation studies. Firstly, the so-called independent variables in the regression equations are
not truly independent of each other, and some sort of correlation normally exists among them.
The variables such as car-ownership, family income, residential density etc. are all inter-related
to certain extent. Secondly, many of these variables are, strictly speaking, not normally
distributed. Finally, some of them are not continuous variables, an example being the car
ownership. The number of cars owned by a family can only be a discrete variable.
Criteria for Evaluation of Regression Equations
The following criteria should generally be applied in evaluating and selecting a regression equation
1. The multiple correlation coefficient should have a value at least 0.75 or even
higher. Avalue close to 1.0 shows a very good correlation
2. The standard error of the estimate of the dependent variable should be sufficiently small.
3. The F test should be carried out to examine evidence of the degree of certainty
that ameaning full relationship exists between the dependent and independent
variables.
4. The equation should have accuracy, validity, simplicity and sharpness and constancy.

Zonal Regression and Household Regression Methods (Aggregated and Disaggregated

Analysis)
Multiple linear regression analysis of two types:
1. Aggregated, or zonal least-square regression, where each traffic zone is treated
as oneobservation.
2. Disaggregated, or Household least-square regression, where each household is
treated asan observation.

Zonal Regression Method (Aggregated Analysis)

In the case of zonal regression, the study area is divided into a number of zones. Each traffic
zone is treated as one observation. The aggregated analysis which is most widely used is based
on the assumption that contiguous households exhibit a certain amount of similarity in travel
characteristics. The dependent variable is some measure of the zonal trip ends and the
independent variables are typically the number of households, number of workers, number of
cars, total incomes etc. Alternatively, the variables are expressed as mean values for the zones.
This assumption allows the data in a zone to be grouped and the mean values of the independent
variable used in further calculation. Sufficiently large survey data is needed to get reliable
results.

Disadvantages of Zonal Regression Models:

Among the prominent drawbacks of the zonal regression models are the followings
i) The analysis masks the variation in the data
ii) Inefficient utilization of data.
iii) Dependency of the models on the type of zoning system adopted.
iv) Inadequate capabilities for prediction of situations where real differences exist
betweencalibrated and forecast data.
v) The zone sample mean is not a reliable estimate of the population mean.
vi) The assumption that zones are to a large extent homogeneous with respect to
characteristics is not found to be generally correct. The within zone variance
associatedwith travel demand are large in relation to between zone variances. In
other words, these parameters exhibit a degree of heterogeneity within zones.
vii) Sometimes there are ecological correlations associated with zonally aggregated
 relationships.
viii) Simple reduction in zone size leads to enormous increase in sampling errors
which are not permitted, besides a large number of smaller zones present
problems at subsequent stages of trip distribution and assignment models.
Therefore, this, severely restricts the usefulness of models for small scale
planning applications.
Household least squares regression analysis (Disaggregated Analysis):

The logical extension to the arguments favouring a reduction in zone size is to develop data
base that makes no reference to zone boundaries. One consideration is to treat this at household
level. The dominating Influence of the head of household implies that the trip making activity
of the household members can only be accurately predicted through a knowledge of total
household characteristics. It would appear, then, that the household can reasonably be
considered as a behavioural trip-making unit and therefore, treated as the basis for the trip end
estimatingprocedure.
In the household regression analysis, each household is considered as a separate input data, so
that the wide observed variation in household characteristics and household trip making
behaviour is incorporated into the models. The attempt, here, is to explain the total variation
between households, as against the variation between zones, explained by zonal models.
The variables considered are between the number of trips per household per day and the
household characteristics such as family size (persons), employees per household, car
ownership per household, household income etc.
Compared to aggregated analysis, disaggregated analysis produces better results and is
consideredmore likely to be stable over time and to provide more reliable future estimates.
Disadvantages of multiple-linear regression analysis technique

Some of the disadvantages associated with the assumptions made in the linear regression
techniqueare as follows:
 The equation derived is purely empirical in nature and fails to establish a meaningful
relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
 The technique is based on the premise that the regression coefficients initially
established will still remain unchanged in the future and can be used in the
regression equation for predicting future travel. How far the prediction is valid in
future is a main question
 Difficulties arise in evaluation the effect of statistical problems relating to non-
linearity of the response surface and high correlation amongst the explanatory
variables.

CATEGORY ANALYSIS OR CROSS–CLASSIFICATION

The method is based on estimating the response (e.g. the number of trip productions per
household for a given purpose) as a function of household attributes. The average response or
average value of the dependent variable is determined for certain defined categories of the
independent variables.A multi-dimensional matrix defines the categories, each dimension in the
matrix representing one independent variable. The independent variables themselves are
classified into a definite number of discrete class intervals.

Assumptions

1) The household is the fundamental unit in the tri generation process, and most
journeys begin or end in response to the requirements of the family.
2) The trip generated by the household depend upon the characteristics of that
household and its location relative to its required facilities such as shops, school and
work place.Household with one set of characteristics generate different rates of trips
from householdswith other set of characteristics.
3) Three prime factors affecting the amount of travel a household produces: car-
ownership, income and household structure. Within each of the three factors, limited
number of ranges are established to describe the trip generating capacity of a household by
a limited numberof categories.
4) Trip generation rates are relatively stable over a time so long as factors external
to thehousehold are the same as when the trips were first measured.
The cross-classification model is based on the assumption that the number of trips
generated bysimilar households or households belonging to the sample category is the same.

Categorization of Households
Households categorization based on three factors

Caownership – Income
3 – 6 classes Household structure- 6 classes
classes
 < 5000 p.a.  No employed residents and one non-
 0 car  5000-10,000 p.a. employed adult
 1 car  10,000-15,000  No employed residents and 2 or more
 > 1 car p.a. non-employed adult
 15,000-20,000  One employed resident and one or
p.a. less non-employed adult
 20,000-25,000  One employed resident and two or
p.a. more non-employed adult
 >25,000 p.a.  Two or more employed residents and
one or less non-employed adult
 Two or more employed residents and
two or more non-employed adult

The above system of categorization will give 108 (3x6x6) categories. It is also possible to
considerdifferent modes of travel and trip purposes to get more combinations.
As an example of this model let x be a zone. There are Pxy households in category y and if Qk is
the average rate of trip generation per household in category y then the relation for the trip
generated by zone x, Tx is given by
 𝑇𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑥 × 𝑄
𝑦 𝑘
Example: Cross Classification of households by size and ownership
To illustrate cross classification let us consider two variable groups that affect residential trip
generation: family size and auto ownership. For each zone of metropolitan area, data are
recorded according to the number of households, as well as the number of trips made by those
households, for cross classification of family size and automobile ownership (Table 5.2). From
these data a matrix is constructed with the average trip rates for different types of households
recorded in the individual cell (Table 5.3). To predict trip-generation rates for each zone, the
number of households in each cell of matrix is estimated for the target or forecast year (Table
5.4). The rates of trip making for a given cross-classified category are multiplied by the number
of households inthat category. For example in Table 5.5, it is estimated that in the forecast year
there will be 79 households with three members who own one automobile, the cross-
classification model predicts the households in this zone will make 559 trips in the forecast
year, based on the present trip generation rate 7.08 trips per household.
 Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique

Advantages:
i. Cross-classification groupings are independent of the zone system of the study
area.The whole concept of the household trip making is simplified in this
technique. It categorizes the household according to certain socio-economic
characteristics and thisappears rational.
ii. Unlike regression analysis technique, no mathematical relationship is derived
between trip making and house hold characteristics. This takes away many of the
statistical drawbacks of the regression analysis.
iii. Since data from the census can be used directly, it saves considerable amount of
effort,time and money spent on home interview survey.
iv. The computations are relatively simple.
v. Since disaggregate data are used, the technique simulates human behavior more
realistically than the zonal aggregation process normally employed in regression
analysis.
Disadvantages:
i. It is difficult to test the statistical significance of the various explanatory
variables. There is no statistical goodness-of-fit measure for the model, so only
aggregatecloseness to the calibration data can be ascertained.
ii. The technique normally makes use of studies in the past made elsewhere, with
broad corrections.
iii. Large samples are needed to assign trip rates to any one category. otherwise cell
values will vary in reliability because of the differences in the number of
households being available for calibration at each one.
iv. The model does not permit extrapolation beyond its calibration strata, although
the lowest or highest class of a variable may be open ended.
v. New variables cannot be introduced at a future date.
EXPANSION FACTORS METHODS:
These methods simply depend on fast growth rates in order to predict trips. Such co-relation
can be developed with
→ growth of traffic
→ increase in population
→ Agricultural & industrial production
→ total mileage of roads
→ Petrol consumption estimate
→ Per capita income
→ National gross product
But due to fast changing rate & complexity of urban area these methods are outdated and their use is
confined to short term forecasting in small urban or rural areas. Therefore, the other two computer
oriented mathematical methods are more popular now-a-day.
AGGREGATED AND DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS:
 The two basic approaches for developing modals for estimation of trip production & trip
attraction are as follows:
i. Aggregate approach
ii. Disaggregate approach
Aggregated / zonal least square regression:
 In this each traffic zone is treated as one observation. It is most widely used and it is based
on the assumption that each household exhibit a certain amount of similarity travel
characteristics. This assumption allows grouping of data in a zone and the mean value of
assumption variable is used for further calculations.
The disadvantages are:
i. Data is inefficiently used
ii. The modal is dependent on the type of zoning system adopted.
iii. The analysis covers the data variations.
iv. Zonal sample mean used is not necessarily a reliable estimate of population mean.
v. Though the assumption that the zones are homogenous w.r.t travel & socio-economic
characteristics. The variations within the zone may be sometimes large.
vi. In the process of making the zones as small as possible to make these homogenous, the
planner increases the complexity of trip distribution & trip assignment.
vii. It may not be suitable for other zones.
The advantages are:
i. Zonal basic is the main advantages and it is simple.
Disaggregated/ household least square regression:
  It is based on the development of equations describing independent variables on the trip
making as a basic unit. For trip production analysis, household usually is considered as a
basic source of travel.
 Regression or category analysis is used for the development of these models.
The advantages of this method are:
i. It reflects the trip makers true behavior.
ii. It provides a more natural setting for the development of relationship among their
compounds based on non-complex assumptions.
iii. It provides more efficient estimate of parameters at a similar computational cost.
iv. There is a greater degree of transferability potential of modals from one data area to
another.

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation. After having obtained an
estimate of the trips generated from and attracted to the various zones, it is necessary to
determine the direction of travel. Trip distribution models begin with the number of trip ends
generated by each zone and answer the question, “What zone are the trips going to and coming
from?” The number of trips generated in every zone of the area under study has to be apportioned
to the various zones to which these trips are attracted. These generated trips from each zone is
then distributed to all other zones based on the choice of destination. This is called trip
distribution which forms the second stage of travel demand modeling.

DEFINITIONS AND NOTATIONS

Trip matrix
The trip pattern in a study area can be represented by means of a trip matrix or origin-
destination (O-D) matrix. This is a two dimensional array of cells where rows and columns
represent each of the zones in the study area. The horizontal axis of the matrix represents the
zones of attractions (destinations D), 1, 2, 3,……j…n and the vertical axis represents the zones
of generations (origin, O), 1, 2, 3,…..i…n. The number of trips indicated at the intersection of
any zone of origin and attraction e.g. t i-j represents the number of trips originating in zone i and
terminating in zone j. The total of any individual row, i, represents the total number of trips
generated in zone, i.e. pi. Similarly the total of any individual column, j, represents the number
of terminating in zone j, i.e. aj.
METHODS OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION
In trip distribution, two known sets of trip ends are connected together, without specifying the
actual route and sometimes without reference to travel mode, to form a trip matrix between
knownorigins and destinations.
There are two types of trip distribution methods,
1. Growth factor methods
2. Synthetic methods
The growth factor methods are based on the assumption that the present travel patterns can be
projected to the design year in the future by using certain expansion factors. It assume that in
the future the trip-making pattern will remain substantially the same as today but that the
volume of trips will increase according to the growth of the generating and attracting zones.
These methods are simpler than synthetic methods and for small towns where considerable
changes in land-use and external factors are not expected, they have often been considered
adequate. Growth factor methods have been used in earlier studies but have yielded place now to
the more rational syntheticmodels. The following are the important growth factor methods:
1. Uniform factor method
2. Average factor method
3. Fratar method
4. Furness method
In synthetic models of trip distribution, an attempt is made to discern the underlying causes of
movements between places, and relationships are established between trips and measures of
attraction, generation and travel resistance. Synthetic models have an important advantage that
they can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but also to synthesis the base-year
flows. The necessity of having to survey every individual cell in the trip matrix is thus obviated
and the cost of data collection is reduced. The synthetic methods are as give below:
1. Gravity model
2. Tanner model
3. Intervening opportunities model
4. Competing opportunities model
Trip Distribution using Growth Factor

Growth factor methods assume that in the future the trip-making pattern will remain
substantially the same as today but that the volume of trips will increase according to the
growth of the generating and attracting zones. These methods are simpler than synthetic
methods and for small towns where considerable changes in land-use and external factors are
not expected, they have often been considered adequate.
 Uniform Growth Factor Method
This method also known as Constant Factor Method assumes that all zones will increase in a
uniform manner and that the existing traffic pattern will be the same for the future when growth is
taken into account. This was the earliest method to be used, the basic assumption being that the
growth which is expected to take place in the survey area will have an equal effect on all the trips
in the area. The relationship between present and future trips can be expressed by

𝑇𝑖−𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖−𝑗 × 𝐸
Where,
 Ti-j is the future number of trips between zone (i) and zone (j)
 ti-j is the present number of between zone (i) and zone (j)
 E is the constant factor derived by dividing the future number of trip ends expected in
thesurvey area by the existing number of trip ends.
This method suffers from following disadvantages:
 The assumption of a uniform growth factor rate for the entire study is not correct, but
each zone will have its own growth rate and the rate of growth of traffic movement
between anytwo zones will be different.
 The method under estimates movements where present day development is limited and
over estimates movements where present day development is intensive. It will tend to
overestimate the trips between densely developed zones, which probably have little
development potential, and underestimate the future trips between underdeveloped
zones, which are likely to be extremely developed in the future. It will also fail to make
provision for zones which are at present undeveloped and which may generate a
considerable numberof trips in the future.
 If the present trip movement between any two zones is zero, the future trip movement
alsobecomes zero as per this method. This may rarely be in the case of reality.

Average Factor Method

This method attempts to take into account the varying rates of growth of trip-making which can be
expected in the differing zones of a survey area. The average growth factor used is that which
refers to the origin end and the destination end of the trip and is obtained for each zone as in the
constant factor method. Expressed mathematically, this can be stated to be
𝐸𝑖 + 𝐸𝑗
𝑇𝑖−𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖−𝑗 [ ]
2

WhereTi-j is the future number of trips between zone (i) and zone (j)

 ti-j is the present number of between zone (i) and zone (j)
  Ei = Pi/pi = generated trips growth factor for zone i
 Ej = Aj/aj = attracted trips growth factor for zone j
 Pi = future generated trips of zone i,
 pi = present generated trips of zone i,
 Aj = future attracted trips of zone j,
 aj = present attracted trips of zone j.
At the completion of the process, the attractions and productions will not agree with the
future estimates ( sum of trips from zone 1 will probably not agree with the projected trip
ends in zone I and the sum of trips to zone j will not agree with the projected trip ends in
zone j). Hence the procedure must be iterated using as new values for Ei and Ej (Ei’ and
Ej’) calculated as follows.
𝑃𝑖
𝐸′ =
𝑖
𝑝′
𝑖
𝐴𝑗
𝐸′ =
𝑗
𝑎′
𝑗

where p’i and a’j are the total productions and attractions of zones i and j respectively, obtained
from the first distribution of trips. The process is iterated using successive values of p’i and a’j until
the growth factor approaches unity and the successive values of t’ij and tij are within 1 to 5 percent
depending upon the accuracy required in the trip distribution.
 The average factor method suffers from many of the disadvantages of the constant
factor method.
 The multiplying factor has no real significance and is only a convenient toll to balance
the movements. There is no explanation of the movement between zones and the
factors causing the movement.
 In addition if a large number of iterations are required.
Because of theses drawbacks the method is rarely used nowadays except for updating
existing stable and uniform data for quick results.
 Fratar Method

This method was introduced by T. J. Fratar to overcome some of the disadvantages of the constant
factor and average factor methods. According to this method, the total trips for each zone are

distributed to the interzonal movements, as a first approximation, according to relative

attractiveness of each movement. Thus, the future trips estimated for any zone would be distributed
to the movements involving that zone in proportion to the existing trips between it and each other
zone and in proportion to the expected growth of each other zone. This may be expressed as

Where,
Ti-j = Future trips from zone i to zone j
ti-j = Present trips from zone i to zone j

Pi : = Future trips produced at zone i

pi = Present trips attracted at zone i
Ai = Future trips attracted to zone j
aj = Present trips attracted to zone j

k = Total numbers of zones

When the future traffic into and out of all zones is similarly distributed, each interzonal trip has
been assigned two tentative values – one the result of the distribution for one of the zones involved
and the other, the result of the distribution for the other zone involved. As a first approximation
those pairs of tentative values are averaged. A new ‘growth factor’ for each zone is then calculated
and the distribution process is repeated.
The procedure is laborious except for simple problems, but can be conventionally tackled by a
computer. It has the same drawbacks as other growth factor models and is unable to forecast trips
for those areas which were predominantly under-developed during the base year. It does not take
into account the effects of changes in accessibility for various portions of the study area
Furness Method
The method was devised by K. P. Furness is also iterative in nature. For this the estimates of future
traffic originating and terminating at each zone are required, thus yielding origin growth factors
and destination growth factors for each zone. The traffic movements are made to agree alternately
with the future traffic originating in each zone and the estimated future terminating in each zone,
until both these conditions are roughly satisfied. The Furness method gives results similar to Fratar,
but requires less computation.
Criticism of Growth Factor Methods

The following are some of the disadvantages of the growth factor methods:

1. Present trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first, for which large scale O–D studies
with high sampling sizes are needed so as to estimate the smaller zone-to-zone movements
accurately
2.The error in original data collected on specific zone-to-zone movements gets magnified.
3. None of the methods provide a measure of the resistance to travel and all imply that
resistance to travel will remain constant. They neglect the effect of changes in travel pattern by
the construction of new facilities and new network.
Despite the above shortcomings, the growth factor methods are relatively simpler to use and
understand. They can be used for studies of small areas and for updating stable and uniform data.
In general, growth factor model can be analyzed as:
 Uniform growth factor
In case the only information available is the general growth rate for the whole study area Then, for
each cell we can apply:

Consider the matrix in the table below. If the growth in traffic is expected to grow by 20%. what
will be the expected future matrix ?

Since the growth is expected to be 20% then, growth rate = 120/100 = 1.2 %
The future estimate trip matrix will be

 Singly constrained growth-factor

In case we have information about expected growth in specific trips originating from each zone,
such as a shopping trips or working trips. Thus, we have to apply the origin-specific growth factor
( ) to the appropriate row. The same thing applies if we know extra information
about thedestination trips then we apply to the concerned column

Example

Trips originating from zone 1,2,3 of a study area are 78,92 and 82 respectively and those
terminating at zones 1,2,3 are given as 78,96 and 78 respectively. If the growth factor is 1.3 and
the cost matrix is as shown below, find the expanded origin-constrained growth trip table.

Solution
Given growth factor = 1.3, Therefore, multiplying the growth factor with each of the cells in the
matrix gives the solution as shown below.
 Example

Consider the trip matrix with predicted growth for origins. find the expanded origin-constrained
growth trip table.

 Doubly constrained growth-factor

When information is available on the growth in the number of trips originating and terminating in
each zone, we know that there will be different growth rates for trips in and out of each zone and
consequently having two sets of growth factors for each zone. This implies that there are two
constraints for that model and such a model is called doubly constrained growth factor model.
Knowns as Fratar or Furness methods.
In such cases, a set of intermediate correction coefficients are calculated which are then
appropriately applied to cell entries in each row or column. After applying these corrections to say
each row, totals for each column are calculated and compared with the target values. If the
differences are significant, correction coefficients are calculated and applied as necessary. The
procedure is given below:
Process:
1. Set bj =1
2. with bj solve for ai to satisfy trip generation constraint
3. with ai solve bj to satisfy trip attraction constraint
4. update matrix and check for errors
5. repeat steps 2 and 3 till convergence.

Example

The base year trip matrix for a study area consisting of three zones is given below. The productions
from the zone 1,2 and 3 for the horizon year is expected to grow to 98, 106, and 122 respectively.
The attractions from these zones are expected to increase to 102, 118, 106 respectively. Compute
the trip matrix for the horizon year using doubly constrained growth factor model using Furness
method.
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION:
It is the procedure utilized to distribute the generated trips from each zone to any other zone. The
trip distribution matrices b/w the origin & destination are developed as shown in the sketch. The two
known sets of trip ends are connected together without specifying the actual route and sometimes
without reference to travel modes.
Jo {= attraction}
Destination zones
Sl.no 1 2 3 4 N Σ
1 T1-1 T1-2 T1-3 T1-4 T1-N P1

2 T2-1 T2-2 T2-3 T2-4 T2-N P2

3 T3-1 T3-2 T3-3 T3-4 T3-N P3
4 T4-1 T4-2 T4-3 T4-4 T4-N P4
N Tn-1 Tn-2 Tn-3 Tn-4 Tn-N PN
Σ A1 A2 A3 A4 AN x

Σ P → Total Trip Production

Σ A → Total Trip Attraction
 Any trip production matrix should satisfy the following two basic conditions or
constrained equations.
 All produced trips are distributed i.e sum of trip interchanges to all attraction zones
should be equal to the trip production magnitude estimated during trip generation
analysis for all zones.
 All attracted trips should be distributed i.e the sum of trip interchanges from all
production zones must be equal to the trip attraction magnitude estimated during trip
generation phase for all zones.
These are expressed mathematically as follows:
Pi2 = Σ tij2
Hj2 = Σ tij2
Where, Σ tij2 → no. of trips produced in zone I & attracted to zone j by q type TM.
Pi2 → no. of trips produced in the zone I by q type trip makers.
Hj2 → total no. of trips attracted to zone j by q type trip makers.
METHODS OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION:
There are two types of TD methods:
i. Growth factor methods
ii. Synthetic methods
GROWTH FACTOR METHODS:
i. Uniform factor
ii. Average factor
iii. Detroit method
iv. Fratar method
v. Furnass method
SYNTHETIC METHODS:
i. Gravity model
ii. Tanner s model
iii. Intervening opportunities model
iv. Competing opportunities model
v. Linear programming approach
i. UNIFORM GROWTH FACTOR METHOD:
 It is the oldest growth factor method which is based on the assumption that the growth rate for
whole area is valid for predicting inter-zonal trips. A single growth factor ‘E’ for the entire area
under study is calculated by dividing the total no. of future trip ends expected in the survey area
for the design year by the trip ends in the base year. The future trips b/w zones ‘I’ & ‘j’, Tij are
calculated by applying the uniform factor ‘E’ to the base year trips b/w the zones I & j. hence T ij
= tij × E.
DISADVANTAGES:
 The assumption of uniform growth factor for the entire study is not correct.
 It under estimates the movement where present-day development is limited and overestimates
the movements where present-day development is intensive.
 If the present trip movement b/w any two zones is zero the future trip movement also becomes
zero as her this method.
 problem
 The distribution of present trips among the zones 1, 2, & 3 are shown in the O/D matrix as
shown. The future trips generated in zones 1, 2 & 3 are expected to be 360, 1260 & 3120
respectively. It is to be distributed by using constant factor method.
O/D 1 2 3 ti Ti
1 60 100 200 360 360
2 100 20 300 420 1260
3 200 300 20 520 3120
Σ ti = 1300 Σ Ti 4740

E = Σ Ti/ Σ ti 4740/1300 = 3.343

O/D 1 2 3 ti Ti
1 219 365 729 1313 360
2 365 73 1094 1532 1260
3 729 1094 73 1896 3120
Σ ti = 4740 Σ Ti 4740
AVERAGE GROWTH FACTOR METHOD:
This method takes into account the fact that the rates of development in the zones are normally
different from the rate per urban area as a whole. It utilizes a different growth factor per each zone
to predict the inter-zonal movement. The present inter zonal volumes are multiplied by average of
two zonal growth factors involved. It represents the average growth associated with truth origin &
destination zones. The principle employed is shown by the following mathematical relationship.
Ti-j = ti-j [Ei + Ej /2]
Where, Ti-j → future trips from zone I to zone j
ti-j → present trips from zone I to zone j
Ei → Pi/Pi = future generated trips for zone I / present generated trips for zone i
Ej → Aj/aj = future attracted trips for zone j / present attracted trips for zone j
After the distribution is completed on the above basis it will be seen that the sums of trips from
zone, I will probably not agree with the projected trip ends in the j. so the iterative process is used to
overcome this difficulty by using new values of Ei and Ej which are calculated by
Ei′= Pi/Pi
Ej′ = Aj/aj
Where Pi′ & aj′ are total trip productions and attractions for the zones I & j respectively which are
obtained from first stage of iteration. Iterations are carried out till the growth factor variation is by
1%.
DISADVANTAGES:
i. It has the same disadvantages as that of uniform factor method. The multiplying factor has
no real significance and is used only to balance the movements. There is no explanation of
movement b/w the zones and the factors causing the movements.
ii. It has an additional disadvantage that large no. of iterations are required. Therefore, this
method is rarely used nowadays except for updating the existing stable and uniform data for
trip result.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Synthetic Models
In synthetic models of trip distribution, an attempt is made to discern the underlying
causes of movement between places and relationships are established between trips and
measures of attraction, generation and travel resistance. Synthetic models have an
important advantage that they can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but
also to synthesis the base-year flows. The necessity of having to survey every individual
cell in the trip matrix is thus obviated and the cost of data collection is reduced.
1. Gravity model
One of the well-known synthetic models is the Gravity Model. Based in Newton’s
concept of gravity, the model as proposed by Voorhees assumes that the interchange of
trips between zones in an area is dependent upon the relative attraction between the zones
and the spatial separation between them as measured by an appropriate function of
distance. This function of spatial separation adjusts the relative attraction of each zone for
the ability, desire or necessity of the trip maker to overcome the spatial separation.
Whereas the trip interchange is directly proportional to the relative attraction between the
zones, it is inversely proportional to the measure of spatial separation.
A simple equation representing the above relationship is of the following form:

Whe
r = Trips between zones i and j
e,
Ti-j
Pi = Trips produced in zone i
Aj = Trips attracted to zone j
dij = Distance between zone i and j, or the time or cost of traveling between
t
K h = A constant, usually independent of i
e
m
n = An exponential constant, whose value is usually found to lie 1 & 3
k = Total number of zones
The following formulation was also used in earlier studies dispersing with the
proportionality constant:
Where, Ti-j, Pi, Aj, di-k and n have the same meaning as given earlier.

In order to simplify the computation requirements of the model, the following formulation has
been frequently used;

W
h
e
r
e
,
= T Trips produced in Zone i and attracted to zone j
i
-
j
= P Trips produced in zone i
i
= A Trips attracted to zone j
j
F Empirically derived travel time factor which expresses the average area-wide
=
i
-
j
effect of spatial separation on trip interchange between zones i and j
Ki-j = A specific zone-to-zone adjustment factor to allow for the incorporation of
the effect on travel patterns of defined social or economic linkages not otherwise
accounted for inthe gravity model formulation
=k Total number of zones
=m Iteration number
=p Trip purpose

The above relationship can be used for determining the trip interchange for
each trippurpose and each mode of travel.

2. Tanner’s Model
Tanner has suggested that the inverse of nth power, 1/(di-j)n in the gravity model
formula cannot give valid estimates at both very small and very large distances. In this
place he proposes the function eλd/dn, where λ and n are constants. The new formula
suggested by him is of the form:
 Where
t1-2 = Number of journey per day between the two places 1 and 2
m = A constant
P1 and P2= Populations, or other measures of size of the two places
d1-2 = Distance between places 1 and 2 or the time or cost
oftraveling between them
C1 and C2 = Constants, one for each place, C1 being defined by

3. Opportunity Model
Opportunity models are based on the statistical theory of probability as the theoretical
foundation.The concept has been pioneered by Schneider and developed by subsequent
studies.
The two well-known models are:
1. The intervening opportunities models;

2. The competing opportunities model.

The opportunity models can be represented by the general formula:
Tij = Oi P (Di)
Where,
= T Predicted number of trips from zone i to j.
i
-
j
= O Total number of trips originating in zone i.
i
= P Calculated probability of a trip terminating in zone j.
(
D
j
)
= Total trip destinations attracted to zone j.

3.1 Intervening Opportunities Model

In the intervening opportunities model, it is assumed that the trip interchange
 between and origin and a destination zone is equal to the total trips emanating from the
origin zone multiplied by the probability that each trip will find and acceptable terminal
at the destination. It is further assumed that the probability that a destination will be
acceptable is determined by two zonal characteristics: the size of the destination and the
order in which it is encountered as trips proceed from the origin. The probability
functions in above equation P(Dj), may then be expressed as the difference between the
probability that the trip origins at i will find a suitable terminal in one of the destinations,
ordered by closeness to i, up to and including j, and the probability that they will find a
suitable terminal in the destination up to but excluding j. The following equation
representsmathematically this concept:
,
= T Predicted number of trips from zone i to j
i
-
j
= Q Total number of trips originating in zone i
i
= L Probability density of destination acceptability at the point of consideration

A = Number of origins between i and j when arranged in order of closeness

B = Number of destinations between i and j when arranged in order of closeness
It may be noted that:
A = B + Dj

3.2 Competing Opportunities Model

In the competing opportunities model, the adjusted probability of a trip ending in
a zone is the product of two independent probabilities, viz., the probability of a trip being
attracted to a zoneand the probability of a trip finding a destination in that zone. A form of
this model is given below:
MODAL SPLIT
Modal split is the process of separating person-trips by the mode of travel. It is usually
expressed as a fraction, ratio or percentage of the total number of trips. In general, modal
split refers to the trips made by private car or public transport (road or rail). An
understanding of modal split is very important in transportation studies. Further
transportation pattern can only be accurately forecast if the motivations that guide the
traveler in his choice of the transportation modes can be analyzed. Though the factors that
govern the individual choice of mode are complex, a study of the same isof great utility.

FACTORS AFFECTING MODAL SPLIT (MODAL SPLIT ANALYSIS)

Factors influencing mode choice of urban travelers:
1. Characteristics of the trip.
2. Household characteristics.
3. Zonal characteristics.
4. Network characteristics.

1. Characteristics of trip
i) Trip purpose: the choice of mode is guided to a certain extent by the trip purpose.
To give an example, home based school trips have a high rate of usage of public
transport.On the other hand, home based shopping journeys can have a higher rate
of private car usage, for the simple reason that it is more convenient to shop when
travelling in a personalized transport.
ii) Trip length: the length can govern an individual's choice of a particular mode.
Ameasure of the trip length is also possible by the travel time and the cost of
travelling.
2. Household characteristics
i) Income: the income of a person is a direct determinant of the expenses he is prepared
to incur on a journey. Higher income groups are able to purchase and maintain private
cars,and thus private car trips are more frequent as the income increase.
ii) Car ownership: car ownership is determined by the income and for this reason both
income and car ownership are inter-related in their effect on modal choice. In general,
families which own a car prefer private car trips, and in contrast families without car
patronize public transport in the absence of any other alternative.
iii) Family size and composition: the number of persons in the family, the number of
school- going children, the number of wage earns, the number of unemployed, the
 age-sex structure of the family, and some other factors connected with the socio-
economic status of the family profoundly influence the modal choice. Some of these
factors are responsible for certain captive trips in public transport, such as those due to
old age pensioners, school children, crippled and infirm persons and those who do not
wish to drive.
3. Zonal characteristics
i) Residential density
ii) Concentration of workers
iii) Distance from CBD
The use of public transport increases as the residential density increases. This is because
of the fact that areas with higher residential density are inhabited by persons with lower
income, lower levels of car ownership. It is also found that higher density areas are served
well by public transport system and such areas are oriented towards a better use of public
transport system.
4. Network characteristics
i) Accessibility Ratio
It is a measure of the relative accessibility of that zone to all other zones by means of
mass transitnetwork and highway network.

ii) Travel Time Ratio (TTR)

 The ratio of the travel time by public transport and travel time by private car gives a
measure of the attractiveness or otherwise of public transport system.

iii) Travel Cost Ratio (TCR)

The ratio of cost of travel by public transport and cost of travel by car is one of the most
importantfactors influencing modal choice. The importance of travel cost is related to the
economic status. People with high incomes are unmindful of cost and prefer most
expensive modes.

iv) Service Ratio (SR)

 The relative travel service was characterized by the ratio of the travel excess travel times
by public transport and car. The excess travel time was defined as the time spent outside
the vehicle duringa trip. Thus, the Service Ratio was defined as follows:

then, using TTR, CR, and SR, modal split curves were developed for work trips.

MODAL SPLIT IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

In Modal Split two variations are possible:
1. Pre-distribution modal split, in which the modal split is considered prior to
tripdistribution stages. This procedure is also called as trip end modal split
procedure
2. Post-distribution modal split, in which the modal split is considered after
distributionstage. This procedure is also called as trip interchange modal split.
1. Trip-end modal split models/ Pre-distribution modal split
In case of pre-distribution modal split, split is possible at two stages
 At the trip generation stage itself
 After trip generation, but before trip distribution
the modal split is considered at the trip generation stage itself, it is necessary to derive
separate multiple linear regression equation for each mode of transport, i.e., car, public
transport, rail etc. the factors which are considered to influence modal choice are car
ownership, residential density,distance of zone of origin from the CBD and relative
accessibility of the zone of the origin to the transportation facility. Though this method
generates different trip generation patterns for different trip purposes, but it fails to take
into consideration future changes in public transport system, improvements in highway
system, restricting parking etc.
If the modal split is carried out after generation but before distribution, the trop
generations are calculated on the assumption that the mode of travel has no influence on
trip generation. After determining the total trips generated and attracted, these trips are
allocated to public transport system and private car transport by considering relative
attractiveness of each mode measured by considering criteria which can govern modal
split. Distribution is then carried out. The flow diagram of this procedure is shown in the
following flow chart.
 Advantages of pre-distribution modal split
 They are less difficult and less costly as compared to post-distribution methods.
 This method uses factors such as income, car ownership, family structure, employment
etc.which are characteristics affecting trip generation.
 These models could be very accurate in the short run, if public transport is available
andthere is little congestion
Disadvantages
 Since these methods are strongly influenced by existing level of public transport
services,they are inappropriate to studies involving improvements to public transport
system
 It does not consider the trip generation characteristics fully
 Insensitive to policy decisions example: Improving public transport, restricting parking etc.

Figure 1: Flow diagram for Modal Split carried out between trip generation and trip distribution

2.Trip-interchange modal split models/ Post-Distribution

In post-distribution models, one possibility is to carry out modal split after distribution,
but before assignment. In this procedure, the zone to zone home based trips are known.
Using this as input, the procedure determines the zone to zone public transport travellers
on the basis of variables representing characteristics of the person making the journey,
characteristics of the destination end of the journey and characteristics of the transport
system all measured on zone to zone basis. Relative travel time and relative travel costs
are some of the usual parameters considered in the models. By subtracting the zone to
zone public transport trips from the total zone to zone person trips, the person trips made
by motor vehicle are derived. The assignment of these trips is carried out as the next

stage. The flow diagram of the above type model is shown below.

Figure 2: Flow diagram for Modal Split carried out after trip distribution

This is the post-distribution model; that is modal split is applied after the distribution
stage. This has the advantage that it is possible to include the characteristics of the
journey and that of the alternative modes available to undertake them. It is also possible
to include policy decisions. Thisis beneficial for long term modelling.
Advantages
  It is useful in situations where serious consideration is given to public transport
 The method makes it possible to develop modal split relations based on a wide range
oftransport system variables influencing modal choice
 The method considers private care and public transport usage on a zone to zone
basisinstead of a zonal basis as in the previous distribution

RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN MODAL SPLIT ANALYSIS

Considering the complexities involved in determining modal split, a considerable amount
of research has taken place in recent years to develop better techniques. Three types of
mathematical concepts have been used to construct stochastic modal choice functions for
the individual behavior.
1. Probit analysis
2. Logit analysis.
3. Discriminant analysis
1. Probit analysis
It is based on the principle that if members of population are subjected to a stimulus that
can range over an infinite scale, the frequency of response to stimulus (assuming that the
response is a 0-1 response) is normally distributed.
In modal choice, the stimulus is assumed to be made up of the relative disutilities of
travel on two modes and of the characteristics of the user. The probit equation can be
written as:
𝑌 = 𝑎0 + 𝑎1𝑥1 + 𝑎2𝑥2 … … ….
Where
Y = probit value for the probability of transit mode
choice.x1,x2 = disutility variables
the determination of the coefficients of the disutilities is done by calibration procedures,
which areoften lengthy and time consuming.
2. Logit analysis.
Logit analysis assumes that the probability of the occurrence of an event varies with
respect tofunction F(x) as a sigmoid curve called the logistic curve. The logit model can
be written as:
1
𝑃1 =
1+ (𝑥)

Where,
 P1 = probability of an individual choosing mode 1
(1-P1) = probability of an individual choosing mode 1
G(x) =𝖺1 (𝐶1 − 𝐶2) +𝖺2 (𝑡1 − 𝑡2) + ⋯ … … …
𝖺1,2 = model parameter
C1, C2 = Cost of travel by modes
1 and 2t1, t2 = Time of travel by
modes 1 and 2

TRAFFIC (TRIP) ASSIGNMENT

Traffic assignment is the last stage in the transport planning process wherein the trip interchanges
are allocated to different parts of the network forming the transportation system. Following
activities are carried out in this stage:
 The route to be travelled is determined
 The inter-zonal flows are assigned to the selected routes

Applications of Traffic Assignment

Some of the applications of traffic assignment analysis to the network are:
1. To determine the deficiencies in the existing transportation system by assigning the
futuretrips to the existing system
2. To evaluate the effects of limited improvements and additions to the existing
transportationsystem by assigning estimated future trips to the improved network.
3. To develop construction priorities by assigning estimated future trips for intermediate
yearsto the transportation system proposed for those years.
4. To test alternative transportation system proposals by systematic and readily
repeatableprocedures.
 5. To provide design hour traffic volumes on highway and turning movements at junctions.
Thus, the assignment process is useful to both to the transport planner because to evaluate how the
proposed transport system will work and to the highway designer for geometric design of
individual links and intersections.

Basic Elements of Transport Networks

A transport network may be formally represented as a set of links and a set of nodes.
 A link is a section of a transport network between two intersections.
 A node is either the centroid of a zone or the intersection of two or more links.
 A path, which is a sequence of distinct nodes connected in one direction by links
 A cycle, which is a path connected to itself at the ends;
 a tree- the sequence of nodes which defines the links compromising the minimum
pathbetween any two zone centroids is called the ‘tree’.
Figure 5.1 provides an example of a transportation network with one origin centroid, two
destination centroids, five links, four internal nodes and 5 paths.

Path building Criteria, Moore’s Algorithm and Skim Tree

Path building criteria – the first step is to create the highway network with nodes and links. Later
the network description is coded. The next step is to select the minimum path between the zones
and assign predicted trips to these paths. Traffic volumes are thus accumulated for each section of
the network. The minimum path may be that route of travel which has least accumulation of time,
distance or other parameters. The ‘tree’ is determined starting from the zone centroid and
progressively selecting the shortest path to the terminal zone centroid. When traffic is accumulated
for each link it may so happen that certain individual links get overloaded. In that event, certain
adjustments will have to be made in accordance with travel time flow relationship.
A procedure commonly employed in traffic assignment studies is what is called as ‘Moore’s
Algorithm’. Moore developed a method for dealing with telephone calls on the basis of shortest
path, and this method has been exploited in many computer programs designed to assign the traffic
in a street network.
A simple example below illustrates the method of building the minimum path tree (skim tree).
ASSIGNMENT TECHNIQUES
Some of the basic methods of route assignment are
1. All-or-nothing assignment method
2. Multi-route assignment technique Methods
3. Capacity restraint assignment techniques
4. Diversion curve method
1. All-or-nothing assignment method
This is the simplest technique, and is based on the premise that the route followed by traffic is one
having the least resistance (travel time, cost, distance or combination of these parameters).
Generally, in All-or-nothing assignment method, all trips for a zone are assigned the minimum
path connecting the nodes. The minimum path is the route which has the least travel time, travel
cost or distance. The technique assumes that the capacity of each link is infinite so that the volume
of traffic does not affect the time of travel or cost of travel. In the first stage, the network
description and tree building are made. The next stage is to assign the traffic flows to the minimum
path tree.

All-or-nothing assignment method Limitations

a) If time alone is used as the governing factor in selecting the minimum path, the other
important factors like cost, distance, safety will be neglected. But a driver may attach
more value to these neglected factors, thus causing errors in the assigned flow. If cost is
used as the sole governing factor, difficulties can rise because different persons value
cost differently. It is also difficult to quantify all the cost involved in a journey.
b) Too many vehicles tend to be assigned to more attractive routes. This may cause
increasing congestion on these routes. This may cause increasing congestion on these
routes and the technique take no account of this factor. For the same reasons, all
facilities in the networkare not effectively utilized under this procedure.
c) If a superior facility is available, say, for example a motorway people tend to prefer to
use this facility for longer journeys. This technique does not reflect this tendency All-or-
nothing assignment method.
d) Small differences in journey times by different routes between the same origin and
destination can result in unrealistic journey paths.
2. Multiple Route Assignment method
All road users may not be able to judge the minimum path for themselves. It may also happen that
all road users may not have the same criteria for judging the shortest route. These limitations of
tall-or-nothing approach are recognized in the multiple route assignment technique.
The method consists of assigning the interzonal flow to a series of routes, the proportion of the
total flow assigned to each being a function of the length of the length of that route in relation to
the shortest route.
Mclaughlin developed one of the first multipath traffic assignment techniques. A driver route
selection criterion is used by Mclaughlin which is a function of travel time, travel cost, and accident
potential. The minimum resistance paths between each origin and destination pair are calculated
with all the link resistances set to values which correspond to a zero-traffic volume. The minimum
resistance value between an origin and destination pair with resistance values less than this
maximum value are identified.
Burrell identified another approach, wherein he assumed that a driver does not know the actual
travel times, but that he associates a supposed time with each link. This supposed time is drawn at
random from a distribution of times, having as its mean, the actual link time. The driver is then
assumed to select the route which minimizes the sum of his supposed link times.
Multiple route models have been found to yield more accurate assignment than all-or-nothing
assignments.
3. Capacity restraint assignment techniques
This is the process in which the travel resistance of a link is increased according to a relation
between the practical capacity of the link and the volume assigned to the link. This model has been
developed to overcome the inherent weakness of all-or-nothing assignment model which takes no
account of the capacity of the system between a pair of zones. This method clearly restrains the
number of vehicles that can use in any particular corridor. The whole system, if assigned with
volumes which are beyond the capacity of the network, then it redistributes the traffic to realistic
alternative paths.
Steps:
 Here the procedure is similar to all-or-nothing assignment as far as the initial data input
are concerned. The additional data fed is the capacity of each link. The best paths are
determined in the same way as in all-or-nothing assignment by building the minimum
pathtrees.
 Traffic is then assigned to the minimum paths, either fully or in stages.
 As the assigned volume on each link approaches the capacity of the link, a new set of
traveltime on the link is calculated.
 This results in a new network with a different minimum path tree, differing significantly
from the earlier minimum path tree. As a consequence, assigning the inter-zonal
volumes to the new tree produces a new volume on each link.
 This iterative process is repeated until a satisfactory balance between volume and speed
isachieved.
Some of the capacity restraint methods are:
a) Smock Method:
In this method all-or-nothing assignment is first worked out. In an iterative procedure, the link
traveltimes are modified according to the following function.

Smock model is used to compute link travel time as:

In the second iteration, the adjusted travel time (TA) is used to determine the minimum paths. The
resulting link volumes are averaged and these are again used to calculate the adjusted travel time
for next iteration.
b) Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) Method:
The formula used to update the link travel time is:

4. Diversion Curves
Diversion curves methods are one of the frequently used assignment techniques. Diversion curves
represent empirically derived relationship showing the proportion of traffic that is likely to be
diverted on a new facility (bypass, new expressway, new arterial street, etc.) once such a facility
is constructed. The curve is constructed by the data collected from the pattern of road usage in the
past.
The curves are generally constructed using variables such as:

 travel time saved,  distance saved,

 travel time ratio,  travel distance ratio,
 travel time and distance saved  distance and speed ratio,
 travel cost ratio

Examples of diversion curve using single variable are given below.

A well-known example of diversion curve using travel time ratio to determine the traffic diverted
to expressway is the Bureau of Public Roads curve is shown below. The curve is “S” shaped.

The following formula has been fitted to this type of curves

100
𝑃=
1 + 𝑡6𝑅
where,
P=percentage of traffic diverted to new system
tR=travel time ratio (time on new system/time on old system)
California Diversion Curves
California curves model is diversion curve method which uses two variables (travel time saved
and distance saved) using a motorway.

The following formula has been developed to fit the above curves.

Where,
d = distance saved on the new route (miles)
T = travel time saved (minutes)

Diversion curves limitation:

 Diversion curve assignments have the drawback that only two alternative routes for
eachpair of zones are considered.
 The technique is therefore eminently suitable for new bypasses, new motorways and
suchnew facilities but is of limited use in a complex urban network.
 Diversion curve reflect the travel resistance as measured by present day travel, but
theiruse for future travel when the pattern can undergo radical changes is doubtful.

URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING TECHNIQUE

Introduction to land use transport models
The basic requirement in Urban Transport Planning Technique is the land use activities for the
year being studied. The travel demand estimated by this technique tend to be high in principal
travel corridors with the result that highly costly rapid transit systems become necessary. Another
drawback of Urban Transport Planning Technique is that it requires a completely specified land -
use allocation both at the production and at the attraction end of trips.
Attempts to overcome the above deficiencies have given rise different transport planning
technique, where by land use and travel demands are determined simultaneously. The appeal of
this technique is that land use is not exogenously specified, but is on the contrary determined by
the model itself, along with the transport demand. The land use transport models are sensitive to
major development policy variables and thus give scope for manipulations in a variety of ways so
as to select the best alternative.
Land–Use Transport Interaction

 Land development generates travel, and travel generates the need for new facilities,
which in turn increases accessibility and attracts further development.
 The question of whether transportation influences land use (development) or whether
land use dictates transportation has been a matter of ongoing concern among
transportationprofessionals.
 Thus, the connection between transportation and land use is a fundamental
concept, which needs to be understood clearly, in transportation planning as
transportation and landuse are inexorably connected.
 Everything that happens to land use has transportation implications and every
transportation action affects land use.
 Transportation's most significant impact on land use development and more
development generates additional travel.
 Increased access to land raises its potential for development and more development
generates additional travel.
 One access has been provided land patterns begin to change over a period of time. The
results of these changes are, for the most part, irreversible.

Selection of Land Use Transport Model

While selecting a model, a number of considerations become important. These are:
1) Simplicity – the model should have a simple casual structure which should be easy
tocomprehend. A simple model will generally consume less time and resources.
2) Modest data requirements – data requirements must be modest. In fact, some of the
goodmodels make use of data routinely available with the planning department.
3) Adaptability – the model should be adaptable to any given location.
4) Comprehensiveness – the model should be comprehensive and should synthesise
therelationship between activities, housing and transportation adequately well.
5) Operationality and rapidity – the model should be operational, capable of easy
interpretation and should be able to test rapidly a wide range of policy options.
6) Computer cost – the model should be operational at relatively cheap computer cost.
Lowery Derivative Model
The Lowery derivative models have many of the above attributes. They are simple to use, require
modest data, are comprehensive and economical, have good response to change in input variables
and have simple causal structure. They have therefore been used extensively and successfully in a
number of studies. The fundamental structure of the model is illustrated in Figure.

The Lowery model relates the three principle components of the urban area:
1. Population.
2. Employment.
3. Communication between population and employment.
Model Equation System
The Lowery model can be represented in terms of nine simultaneous equations and three
inequalities; the following notation will be used:
 A= Area of land.
 E= Employment ( number of persons).
 N= Population (number of households).
 T= Index of trip distribution.
 Z= Constraints.
 The following superscripts are used in conjunction with the above notation:
 U= Unusable land.
 B= Basic sector.
 R= Retail sector.
 H= Household sector.
 k= Class of establishments within the retail sector ( groceries, clinics, primary schools,
cloth
 shop etc.).
 m= Number of classes of retail establishment.
 k=1, m
 n= Number of zones( i=1,2,….n
 j=1, 2,….n)
Land Use: the total land available in each zone and the land therein not useable by any of the three
activities are given. Thus:

Basic sector: for each zone, the land by basic establishments and the employment opportunities
provided by these establishments are exogenously specified.
Retail sector: retail sectors are divided into groups, each having its own characteristics production
function. The employment in each of the retail sector can be considered roughly to be a function
of the households in the region.

The distribution of this retail employment among the zones depend upon the market at each
location. Assuming that the shopping trips originate either from home to from work places, the
market potential of any given location can be defined as weighted index of the number of
households in the surrounding areas and the number of persons employed nearby. Thus:

ck,dk are measures of the relative importance of homes and work places as origins for a particular
type of shopping.
bk, is a scale factor which adjust retail employment.

Total employment: the above procedure determines the amount of employment in any zone for
each category of retail trade. The sum of these employment figures, plus the quantity of basic
employment allocated to the zone is the total employment for the zone. Thus:

Household Sector: the region's population of household is a function of total employment. Thus:

the population living in any zone j is also a function of the employment opportunities in the
different zones and the measure of accessibility from zone j to each of these zones. Thus:

The coefficient factor f is a scale factor. The sum of zone population must equal to the total
population of the region:

Constraints: in order to limit the dispersion of retail employment, a minimum size constraint is
imposed, expressed in terms of employment. If the market potential of particular location does not
justify an establishment above this minimum size, the customers are sent elsewhere. Thus:

In order to prevent the system from generating excessive population densities in locations with
high accessibility indices, a maximum density constraint is imposed. The value of this constraint
(number of households per unit area of residential space) may vary from zone to zone, as would
be the case under zoning ordinances.

And lastly, the amount of land set aside of retail establishments must not exceed the amount
available.
This constraint also prevents the assignment of negative value to the residential land.