Promises, Promises

Tokyo has been destroyed several times, in whole or in part, by earthquakes and once in World War II by bombing. Most citizens sleep with shoes under their beds. This is because one of the biggest dangers in an earthquake is from the glass that will cover the oors immediately after the rst shock. Without shoes, you cant go far. Most also keep a backpack with a bit of food and water in it and a small bag of sand by the gas stove to smother res that start when the quake shakes the pipes loose. Compared to North Americans, who go for trips in the desert without water and drive through northern winters in business suits, these are very prudent and prepared people.
242 AN OUNCE OF PREVENTION CHAPTER 13: RUNNING SIMULATIONS 243

Most water-storage facilities in Japan, including swimming-pools, are catalogued for use in an emergency. In Kobe, the site of a bad quake some years ago, there were ghts over whether water that was earmarked for ghting res could be drunk and whether drinking-water could be used to put out res. In the end, the issue was sent up and across the political and administrative chains of command to Tokyo and no decision was made in time. Bad things come in threes, if not larger numbers. Thats why in the Tokyo simulation we built in a bomb scare. I also did some research and learned that the second-in-command in Tokyo had a young daughter in a school across town. At dinner with my client the night before the event, I casually asked where he would be when the simulation began the next morning at 7:00 a.m. Oh, Ive ruled myself out of the exercise for the rst two hours was the response. In reality, Id be looking for my daughter. I complimented my client on his decision, which I would have imposed on him anyway. Then I asked another question: What are the responders planning to eat during the event? My client said it was the rations theyd stored away for such an emergency. Great, I enthused as a new idea popped into my head. Lets exercise the phone tree that you have to contact all responders in case of an offhour emergency. Well tell them the event is starting a half hour earlier, at 6:30 a.m. Lets also tell them that their kitchens are damaged by the quake, so they cant eat at home but have to start the day off downtown in their ofces breaking out rations. We managed to reach all but one responder, reminding the client that not all resources will be available in a real incident. We threw in a few other curves too. After playing the card announcing that a crowd of 300 displaced persons had gathered outside the ofce building housing my client, we allowed a few minutes to go by and then asked for details on what action they were going to take. When I was told it could all be handled on the grounds of the building complex, I became sceptical. Where would you put 300 people? How would you care for them? I asked.
244 AN OUNCE OF PREVENTION

I was assured there were plenty of rations and serviceable tents that could be set up for sleeping. Who will set up the tents? I asked, knowing most responders were fully occupied. I was told that there was an apartment complex nearby that housed people who worked for my clients organization. I was assured that, at any given time, there would be thirty or so spouses, housekeepers and teenage children at home who could be pressed into service. Great, I enthused. Lets nd out exactly how many we can use to put up tents. Off went a couple of responders with clipboards on which to list the dozens of volunteers, only to return forty or so minutes later with their proverbial tails between their legs. It had turned out they could only nd three people in the whole housing-complex. How are you going to set up these tents now? I quizzed. I was told again that this would be no problem. They were all colourcoded and easy to assemblelike family tents sold anywhere in the world. I insisted they must assemble the tents, as they would have to do in a real crisis. The one brain wave they got was to have some of the 300 victims act as volunteers. At least each tent would occupy two or so volunteers, who would not be getting frustrated in the bigger crowd. About two hours later, I was told that, for the life of them, they couldnt get one tent up. It was like a combination of Christmas morning trying to assemble toys and a dark campsite with a new tent. I was asked whether responders could use an elevator to move a computer instead of moving it down a couple of ights of stairs. We were pretending the power was out, but they could plug the computer into an emergency generator on the main oor. But since the power wasnt really out and they didnt want to risk dropping the computer on the several ights of stairs between it and the generator, they asked to use the elevator. I said Yes but insisted they must keep the computer out of commission for an extra 30 minutes, to simulate the time it would take to get it down the stairs safely. However, a satellite phone didnt get the special treatment the computer did. This satellite phone featured a big fan-like dish. That got deployed
CHAPTER 13: RUNNING SIMULATIONS 245

without incident, but a small connection was broken in the set-up and responders had to do some amateur soldering to make it work. At one point, I asked about the 300 victims, whom Id not thought of for a while. Theyre all ne, I was told. Were handing out food and water in the courtyard. I asked to be taken there for a look. There werent really 300 victims hanging around. These were ctitious displaced people from the neighbourhoodclients, relatives, business contacts and so on. There was a little water and foot on hand, simulating a relief station. But this was also the exact location being used to set up the satellite phone. What was being simulated was the set-up and use of a valuable, fragile and cumbersome satellite-phone station in the middle of 300 hungry, scared, grieving, displaced people. I told my client the satellite phone was broken for the duration of the event. They made notes to change their plans and set up the phone in a more secure place on the roof of their building.

246

AN OUNCE OF PREVENTION

APPENDIX 1: LEARNING FROM PAST DISASTERS

247