Professional Documents
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TECH TRENDS
REPORTEmerging technology trends
that will influence business,
government, education, media
and society in the coming year.
THE YEAR AHEAD
Last year proved to be a restless nail-biter, and 2018 promises more of the
same. Strap in, because you’re likely to witness a number of events that don’t
appear to follow the familiar political, technological or business narratives.
But it does no good to map scenarios for the future without using historical con-
text. This year marks some important anniversaries:
• Five years ago, internet activist Aaron Swartz, who helped make information Like it or not, in 2018 leaders across all industries will confront difficult ques-
move more freely via the RSS tool he helped create, committed suicide. His tions about the future of technology. They must do so using the context of history.
work to make academic research and public records freely available to the
public resulted in federal charges carrying potential penalties of $1 million in Now more than ever, every organization should examine the potential impact of
fines and up to 35 years in prison. Aaron’s suicide temporarily spurred debate, tech trends—and leaders must be willing to take incremental actions. Whether
but it didn’t result in constructive action on digital access and more modern you are a Fortune 500 company, a government agency, a start-up, a university,
methods of protecting intellectual property. In the coming year, we will see the a foundation or a small business, you must factor the trends in this report into
emergence of a splintered internet, with new laws and regulations specific to your strategic thinking for the coming year, and adjust your planning, operations
geographic regions. and business models accordingly. Failing to track trends in a meaningful way will
put your competitive advantage, growth and survivability at risk.
• It was 10 years ago that Apple launched its App Store, an innovation that cat-
apulted smartphones from the fringe to the mainstream. Mobile apps ushered Helping organizations see change early and calculate the impact of new trends
in the social media era, revolutionized the digital ad market, and blurred the is why the Future Today Institute publishes its annual Tech Trends Report. Now
lines between our workplaces and homes. Yet as smartphone sales have now in its 11th year, the report focuses on mid- to late-stage emerging technologies
plateaued, mobile phone makers and service providers have yet to define their that are on a growth trajectory. We have identified more than 225 trends for the
next act as we head into a post-app, post-smartphone era. coming year across 20 industries, and that broad scope is intentional. To under-
stand the future of technology, you must consider the past, present and future of
• It’s also been 10 years since Lehman Brothers filed for the largest bankruptcy all things. Otherwise, you’re essentially looking at the world through a pinhole.
in history, setting off a global financial crisis. In the years since, we’ve seen a
crypotocurrency frenzy, ever-powerful high frequency trading algorithms and As of the publication date, The Future Today Institute’s annual report has gar-
the effective dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the nered more than six million cumulative views. We’re glad to see so many leader-
U.S., which was created to help stave off the dangerous financial sector prac- ship teams all around the world using these trends as part of a formal, ongoing
tices which led to the 2008 crash. process to reduce risk, harness new opportunities and drive change within their
fields. Whether you’re thinking about 2018 or 2168—or any time in between—re-
• And this year marks the 50th anniversary of the assassination of Dr. Martin Lu- member that the future isn’t yet written. You and your team have the power to
ther King, who was shot on a hotel balcony in Memphis, Tennessee. Yet America build your preferred future, today.
feels increasingly divided, in ways that are explicit (more white supremacist
rallies are planned for 2018) and less obvious: roughly six-in-ten black STEM Sincerely,
workers (62%) say they have experienced racial or ethnic discrimination at
work, from earning less than a coworker who performed the same job to ex-
periencing repeated, small slights.1 Outside of the U.S., Austria’s right-leaning
chancellor, whose People’s Party rose to prominence via social media and has
aligned with former members of the Nazi party, will become the president of Amy Webb
the European Union. (It’s Austria’s turn to hold the position.) Founder
The Future Today Institute
1
Pew Research Center, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/10/black-stem-employees-perceive-a-range-of-race-related-slights-and-inequities-at-work. Last accessed January 10, 2018.
This is a robust, detailed report
with more than 225 trends. Please
don’t try to read it
in one sitting.
Start with the Executive Summary,
and then review the top tech
trends listed for your industry. In
the coming months, we hope that
you’ll spend time with all
of the
trends in our 2018 report, and that
you’ll allow your mind to wander
productively.
08 Executive Summary 53 Deep Linking Everywhere 65 Ambient Proximity 74 Selfie Security Using Faceprints
54 Making AI Explain Itself 66 Hidden Bias in Recognition 74 Bounty Programs
08 Key Takeaways Technologies
54 Accountability and Trust 79 The General Data Protection
Regulation Takes Effect
54 Hidden Bias Leads To Big Problems
10 Guide To The Year Ahead 67 Security, Privacy and Data 79 Right To Eavesdrop/ Be
55 China’s AI Boom
69 Compliance Challenges and Eavesdropped On
56 Real-Time Machine Learning Unrealistic Budgets
12 Methodology 79 Defining What Constitutes
56 Natural Language Understanding 69 DDoS Attacks Will Increase Online Harassment
(NLU)
15 How To Use Our Report 69 Ransomware As A Service 80 Drone Surveillance
56 Machine Reading Comprehension
70 Russia’s Gifted Hacker 80 Personal and One-To-Few Networks
(MRC)
16 Ten Important Questions Community Grows
80 Leaking
56 Natural Language Generation (NLG)
70 New Infrastructure Targets
80 Blocking the Ad Blockers
22 The Most Important Tech 56 Generative Algorithms For Voice,
70 Hacktivism On The Rise
Trends For Your Industry Sound and Video 81 Organizational Doxing
And Organization 71 Third-Party Verified Identities
57 Image Completion 81 Anonymity
71 Targeted Attacks on Digital
57 Predictive Machine Vision 81 Authenticity
Assistants
47 Artificial Intelligence 57 Much Faster Deep Learning 81 Differential Privacy
51 The AI Cloud 71 Zero-Knowledge Proofs
57 Reinforcement Learning and Go Commercial 82 Anti-Recognition Cammo
51 Proprietary, Homegrown AI Hierarchical RL and Glasses
Languages 71 Zero-Day Exploits On The Rise
57 Continuous Learning 82 Digital Self-Incrimination
51 AI Chipsets 71 Backdoors
58 Multitask Learning 82 SWATting at Trolls
52 Cognitive Computing 73 Remote Kill Switches
58 Adversarial Machine Learning 83 Revenge Porn
52 Bots 73 AI-Powered Automated Hacking
83 Eye In The Sky
52 Marketplaces For AI Algorithms 73 Offensive Government Hacking
59 Recognition Technologies 83 Law Enforcement Using
52 More Consolidation in AI 73 More Cyber Mission Forces in
60 Faceprints Recognition Algorithms
the Field
53 Consumer-Grade AI Applications 61 Voiceprints To ID Faces
Debut 73 Strange Computer Glitches Will
62 Wifi Tracking Keep Happening 84 Data Retention Policies
53 Digital Assistants Become
63 Gesture Recognition 74 Proliferation of Darknets, Aided 84 Encryption Management
Ubiquitous
By Cryptocurrencies
009
SIGNALS FOR
March June
More than 100,000 techies, AI and autonomous vehicle
filmmakers, journalists, game researchers from around the
02
Uncover hidden patterns by categorizing
information from the fringe:
Use CIPHER to see patterns
contradictions, infections, practices,
hacks, extremes, rarities.
03
Ask the right questions to determine
Ask the right questions whether a pattern is really a trend.
04
Ensure that the timing is right for the
Calculate the ETA trend and for your organiztion.
05
Scenarios inform the strategy you will
Write scenarios create to take the necessary action on
a trend.
06
Are your scenarios comprehensive
Pressure-test enough? Is your level of confidence
the future justified? Is the strategy you’re taking
the right one for the future?
TECH TRENDS prepares staff, managers, executives, funders and startups for
the year ahead, so that they are better positioned to see tech-
nological disruption before it fully erupts. We encourage you to
REPORT IN YOUR use our report as a tool to identify change and to learn how new
technologies might impact your organization in the near-future.
ORGANIZATION
The Report is also a good source of potential new collaborators
and partners. Most importantly, use our report as a jumping off
point for deeper strategic planning.
Low
CHANGE Historically, the sources of all future change tend to come from
the 10 primary sources you see below. Technological advancement
influences future changes and disruption across fields and indus-
tries. When FTI researches tech trends, we do so using the prism
of these sources.
01 02 03 04 05
MEDIA
(our individual and collective
DEMOGRAPHY ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT JOURNALISM use of social networks,
chat services, digital video
channels, photo sharing
services and so on)
06 07 08 09 10
THE MOST
Personality and Character
Cognitive Computing
Recognition
Bots
Ambient Proximity
Marketplaces For AI Algorithms
IMPORTANT
Hidden Bias in Recognition
More Consolidation in AI Technologies
Consumer-Grade AI Applications Compliance Challenges and Unrealistic
TECH TRENDS
Debut Budgets
Digital Assistants Become Ubiquitous DDoS Attacks Will Increase
A Bigger Role For Ambient Interfaces Ransomware As A Service
INDUSTRY AND
Accountability and Trust Targeted Attacks on Digital Assistants
Hidden Bias Leads To Big Problems Personal and One-To-Few Networks
China’s AI Boom Organizational Doxing
ORGANIZATION
Real-Time Machine Learning Digital Self-Incrimination
Natural Language Understanding Natural Language Generation for
Machine Reading Comprehension Reading Levels
We’ve curated lists to help you quickly identify the most Natural Language Generation Computational Photography
important tech trends that will matter to your team, Generative Algorithms For Voice, Computational Journalism
Sound and Video I-Teams For Algorithms and Data
organization and industry in 2018. For your convenience,
Image Completion Voice Interfaces For News and Books
industries are listed alphabetically along with their corre-
Predictive Machine Vision Proximity News
sponding key themes and trends.
Much Faster Deep Learning Crowdlearning
Reinforcement Learning and Digital Frailty
Hierarchical RL
Radical Transparency
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:
THE THIRD ERA OF COMPUTING
001- 027
AI is “one of the most important things that humanity is working
on. It’s more profound than, I don’t know, electricity or fire.”
– Google CEO Sundar Pichai
AI: A NON-TECHNICAL
PRIMER FOR LEADERS
What You Need To Know About AI was translating, posited the theory that In 1956, researchers met at Dartmouth,
Simply put, AI is a branch of computer someday a computer might be capable of for what turned out to be a historic
science in which computers are creative acts—and to think, just like we meeting – and the place where the term
programmed to do things that normally humans do. Between the 1930s – 1940s, “artificial intelligence” was first coined
require human intelligence. This includes mathematicians including Alan Turing, by John McCarthy. In the 1950s – 1970s,
learning, reasoning, problem-solving, Warren McCulloch and Water Pitts published the field exploded. Margaret Masterman
understanding language and perceiving a papers that conceptualized neural and her team at Cambridge designed the
situation or environment. AI is an extremely networks, while Vannevar Bush published a first semantic networks. Jane Robinson
large, broad field, which uses its own short story called “As We May Think” that established the Natural Language
computer languages and even special kinds envisioned intelligent machines assisting Processing group at SRI, while Barbara
of computer networks which are modeled humans. In the 1950s, Turing published Groz figured out that the field would have
from our human brains. another paper, which later became to pivot eventually and take a different
known as the Turing Test, while Claude approach.
The Short Story of AI’s Very Long History Shannon published research analyzing how
computers might be programmed to play Researchers had been working towards
The idea that we might someday create
chess. Computer scientist Grace Hopper a functional AI, using the human brain for
artificially intelligent, sentient robots was
pushed that idea forward, pioneering early inspiration, but they didn’t have access
first suggested by prominent philosophers
programming languages that were similar to enough compute power, data or people
in the mid-1600s. Mathematician Ada
to spoken English. trained to advance the field. As a result,
Lovelace, in the footnotes of a paper she
the field entered what’s known as the “AI
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001
The AI Cloud
002
Proprietary, Homegrown AI Languages
processing units to make all the connections and
computations required in the next era of comput-
ing. Enter a suite of new processors found on an
In the past year, the corporate leaders of the AI As we enter the third era of computing, the larg- SoC—“system on a chip.” Huawei, Apple, Alphabet,
ecosystem have been racing to capture AI cloud- est companies are starting to compete for both IBM, NVIDIA, Intel and Qualcomm are all working
share—and to become the trusted provider of AI marketshare and mindshare. Companies such as new systems architecture and SoCs, and some
on remote servers. Amazon Web Services, Micro- Microsoft, IBM, Amazon and Alphabet are releas- come pre-trained. In short, this means that the
soft’s Azure, IBM and Alphabet are all rolling out ing software packages for developers—as well as chips are ready to work on AI projects and should
new offerings and packages for developers, hoping unique programming languages for AI applications. promise better speeds and more secure data. Late
to make it easier and more affordable for a wide Uber released its own probabilistic programming in 2017, Elon Musk told developers that Tesla is
swath of AI startups to launch their ideas into the language, Pyro, which it wrote in Python. It’s a move also working on its own custom AI hardware chips.
marketplace. This isn’t just about hosting. Each that signals likely fragmentation in the future of the Alphabet’s chip is called a Tensor Processing Unit
company now offers off-the-shelf AI software. Am- AI ecosystem, not unlike our OSX vs Android, and (or TPU), and was specifically built for the deep
azon’s SageMaker lets developers train their own earlier Mac vs PC camps. learning branch of AI. It is designed to work with
neural nets, while Rekognition detects and tracks the company’s TensorFlow system. For reference,
people, activities and objects in video. Microsoft’s TPUs are what was used in the famous AlphaGo
003
Azure platform includes both a machine learning match between the DeepMind system and a world
studio, to help developers build and deploy solu- AI Chipsets Go champion.
tions—and a toolkit for AI to run locally on connected The standard CPUs found in our desktops, laptops, While marketing pre-trained chips to businesses
devices. tablets and mobile phones have certainly gotten will speed up commercialization and as a result will
powerful—but they’re not really designed to meet further R&D, the challenge, of course, is that devel-
the demands of machine learning. The problem with opers might need to wrestle with different frame-
our current CPUs is that they don’t have enough works in the near-future, especially if the various
If data is the new oil, China’s massive, 730m online population makes it the owner
of the largest natural resource going forward—human data—meaning that it not
only has the largest supply of raw materials to use for experimentation and R&D,
but it also lacks the privacy and security restrictions that might hinder progress
in other nations.
Researchers 026
Multitask Learning
recognize misleading information in order to secure
it. Adversarial information is sort of like an optical
illusion and it’s typically imperceptible to the human
are now training If you watched the original Karate Kid movie, you’ll
remember Mr. Miyagi promising to teach Daniel
eye or ear. It could be one pixel out of a million
that’s the wrong color or is misaligned—to you, all
karate—and Daniel getting frustrated with days of those pixels together might still look like a photo of
systems to painting fences, sanding floors and “wax on, wax
off.” To Daniel, none of these activities seemed
a rainbow, but to a machine learning model, that one
out-of-place pixel could render the image gibber-
related, and they certainly didn’t appear to help him ish. When that happens, an adjustment is made to
learn more like with his stated objective: to learn karate. Of course,
it turns out that all of these chores were indeed
the system and it continues training. Adversarial
images can be used to knowingly and purposely
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Key Insight What’s Next violating the Illinois Biometric Information Privacy
Advanced computing systems can now use unique German researchers are working to create thermal Act, which requires companies to secure written
features of our faces—our bone structure, skin col- faceprints by taking heat maps of our faces and releases before collecting biometric data, which in-
or, even capillaries —to identify us. Faceprints are using machine vision to recognize patterns. Their cludes their faces. (This Illinois state law is the only
the new fingerprints. technology can accurately identify a face—and in one of its kind in the U.S.)
under 35 milliseconds, regardless of the amount
Examples of lighting or the facial expressions people make. Watchlist
Faceprints are a newer form of biometric authenti- Researchers at NEC in Japan are taking multiple FaceTec; Megvii; CyLab Biometrics Center at Carn-
cation. In 2014, Facebook announced its “DeepFace” 3D scans to quickly check a person’s face against egie Mellon University; Noveto; SenseTime; Sensible
software, which was capable of recognizing the those catalogued in a registry; it’s expected to Vision; China; Russia; Alphabet; LG; Apple; Facebook;
people in photos with 97% accuracy (that’s about deploy the system for everyone participating in the Alibaba; Samsung; Android; NEC; U.S. Government
the same accuracy as humans). Saks Fifth Avenue 2020 Olympics. Chinese startup Megvii Face++, Accountability Office.
is one example of a luxury store that’s now using supported heavily with sovereign wealth funds
faceprints to track VIP customers. Last year, Apple from both China and Russia, is pioneering faceprint
introduced its Face ID system with the iPhone X. It technologies that are secure enough to be used for
unlocks the phone using infrared and visible light financial transactions. Face++ is also being used by
scans to identify the unique characteristics of your China’s police force for widespread surveillance.
face. China’s Byton has built an electric SUV that Unlike fingerprinting or iris/ retinal scanning, which
you unlock with a faceprint, rather than a key fob. are difficult to do without someone’s direct knowl-
Researchers in Japan and China are working on edge, faceprints can be taken surreptitiously, even
representation models that require only a portion from far away.
of your face, even in low light, to accurately predict We anticipate legal challenges, at least here in the
someone’s identity—even as they change their hair- U.S. Last year, a federal judge allowed a class-ac-
styles, get plastic surgery or grow a beard. tion suit brought against Shutterfly for allegedly
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Watchlist
MIT; Massachusetts General Hospital.
NEWS INDUSTRY
HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
NEWS INDUSTRY
Gesture INFORMS ACT
IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMPACT
IMPACT ON THE
Recognition
ON THE
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NEWS INDUSTRY
Ambient INFORMS ACT
IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMPACT
IMPACT ON THE
Proximity
ON THE
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035- 054
Key Insight devices. Organizations that haven’t carved out
enough budget for IoT security will find themselves
net domain name system infrastructure. To date,
half of the world’s attacks have originated in China.
Expect more sophisticated data breaches, dealing with vast recalls, remediation and lawsuits. Hackers are using more sophisticated tools, which
advanced hacker tricks, and targeted We’ll see this in action during 2018, as the General means that future attacks will be larger in scope
Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) promises a sig- and could achieve greater impact.
ransomware on the devices in your home nificant headache for compliance officers and risk
and offices. managers, who must ensure that the policies and 037
procedures for governments, companies, nonprof-
Ransomware As A Service
035 its and news organizations are current.
We saw the spread of ransomware—WannaCry,
Compliance Challenges and Unrealistic Budgets
036 Petya, NotPetya—during 2017. In England, Wanna-
The historical tension between security and privacy Cry shut down the computers in 80 medical centers,
will unleash new challenges in 2018. Consumers are DDoS Attacks Will Increase which resulted in hospitals diverting ambulances
shedding more data each day, and as more con- A Distributed denial of service attack (DDoS) attack and 20,000 cancelled appointments. Hackers deploy
nected devices enter the marketplace the volume happens when a hacker sends so many requests malicious tools to hijack data, effectively locking
of available data will balloon. Yet those organiza- to a battalion of machines that the entire network out systems and devices, until a fee is paid. Since
tions creating devices and managing consumer goes down. In the past several years, the number cash and online bank transfers are easy to track,
data aren’t planning future scenarios. Off-the-shelf of DDoS attacks have spiked. The U.S. was hit with the currency of choice is now bitcoin, which moves
compliance checklists won’t cut it going forward. 122 million DDoS attacks between April – June 2017 through an encrypted system and can’t be traced.
Managers will need to develop and to continually up- alone. You may remember a massive cyber attack The emergence of the blockchain and cryptocurren-
date their security policies—and they’ll need to make that effectively turned off America’s internet—it ciues have transformed ransomware into a lucra-
the details transparent. Most organizations aren’t was caused by the Mirai botnet and infected Dyn, a tive business. Simply backing up your data prob-
devoting enough budget to securing their data and company that controls a large portion of the inter- ably won’t be enough of a failsafe going forward.
040
038
Hacktivism On The Rise
Russia’s Gifted Hacker Community Grows
Hackers-turned-activists have had a busy few
Russia is home to the world’s most gifted and pro-
years, working for causes they believe in. They
lific hackers, who are motivated both by a lack of
launched DDoS attacks against governments, cor-
economic opportunity and weak law enforcement.
porations and banks. They infiltrated the campaigns
While people with the same skills sets could make
of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Hacktiv-
six-figure salaries in the West, they struggle to get
ist organizations, including Anonymous, WikiLeaks
by, receiving only a few hundred dollars a month
and DC Leaks, see themselves as durable forces
from Russian employers. Over time, this has cre-
of change. Glamourized by the TV show Mr. Robot,
ated a perfect storm: enormously talented people,
hacktivism is on the rise, and given heated political
weak laws and poor economic conditions have led to
tensions during a year in which many elections are
a growing pool of talented hackers. In the past two
being held, we’ll likely see more operations being
years, it’s become clear that Russia’s military and
carried out. Hacktivists will use their skills to help
government intelligence agencies are eager to put
shape local, state, national and international poli-
home-grown hackers to work, infiltrating the Demo-
tics, conversations and business practices.
cratic National Committee, Olympic organizations
and European election commissions.
052 054
New Open Source App Vulnerabilities Bounty Programs
Hackers attacked Ukraine’s power grid using malware called
In 2017, a data scientist revealed a new kind of The past several years have been dramatical-
Industroyer.
malware capable of infecting OpenAI Gym, Elon ly successful for hackers. Security expert Brian
Musk’s open-source toolkit for machine learning Krebs says that the “market for finding, stockpiling
algorithms. It’s just one example of a booming mar- and hoarding (keeping secret) software flaws is
051 ket for malicious tools that exploit vulnerabilities in expanding rapidly” and went so far as to advocate
Proliferation of Darknets, Aided By Cryptocurrencies open source applications and software. As the AI for a compulsory bounty program. In response,
ecosystem grows to incorporate more open source a number of white hat (read: good hacker) bug
Many people confuse the deep web—hidden parts of code and community-built tools, it will be especially bounty programs are becoming popular. In some
the Internet that aren’t usually indexed by search important to spot problems in advance. Many orga- cases, businesses solicit friendly hackers for paid
engines—with darknets, which are niche spaces nizations use open source tools, and in the coming work through platforms like HackerOne, which is
promising anonymity often for illegal activities. years they will need to perform daily–not occasion- being used by the U.S. Department of Defense,
People go there to sell and buy drugs, guns, am- al–security checks. Wordpress, Coinbase, Shopify and GitHub. The DoD
munition, security exploits (malware, ransomware) launched programs this year, including Hack the
and your hacked data (passwords, credit card Army, Hack the Pengaton and Hack the Air Force,
numbers and more). Cryptocurrencies have fueled 053
for the purpose of revealing problems. (It paid out
activity in the dark corners of the internet, since Selfie Security Using Faceprints
$10,000 to two hackers, which was an unprece-
they’re encrypted and make tracking transactions In 2011, the Future Today Institute forecast that dented fee paid by the government for this kind of
nearly impossible. You can’t just hop on to a darknet within five years, we would see the advent of two work).
the way you Google your high school sweetheart. or three-factor authentication using a combination
To access the hidden crime bazaars, you need of biometrics and gestures instead of passwords.
special software such as Tor or Freenet, you need Our timing was correct: in an effort to combat weak
to know where you’re headed, and you do need a passwords (and weak password encryption), many
bit of technical knowledge. It isn’t illegal to take a companies are now using two-factor sign-ins that
walk through dark marketplaces. But there’s plenty sidestep passwords entirely. Apple owns a patent
of good activity that takes place: whistleblowers for “low threshold face recognition,” which helps its
hoping to shine a light on wrongdoing, political iPhoneX recognize faceprints, even in poor lighting
dissidents looking for asylum, and investigative or if we change our hairstyles. Chinese company
journalists hunting down leads. As cryptocurren- Alibaba is using faceprints for payments, while
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055- 071
Key Insight 055
The General Data Protection Regulation Takes Effect
debate over consumer rights will heat up in 2018:
should consumers be given the right to eavesdrop
on what their own devices are saying, and who else
Americans express a consistent lack
Sweeping changes to data privacy regulations take is listening in?
of confidence about the security of effect in the European Union this year. Dubbed the
everyday communication channels and the General Data Protection Regulation (or GDPR), the
organizations that control them – particularly new rules affect how companies can collect and Should consumers be given
use customer data. Those who don’t comply will
when it comes to the use of technology. face hefty fines and litigation. The GDPR applies to
the right to eavesdrop on what
And they cite a deep lack of faith in the everyone who uses customer data, regardless of their own devices are saying,
organizations charged with protecting the where in the world you are.
and who else is listening in?
personal information they collect. While
056
three-quarters of Americans say that it’s
Right To Eavesdrop/ Be Eavesdropped On 057
important they know who’s in control of their
As we connect more and more devices to the In- Defining What Constitutes Online Harassment
data, most struggle to understand the nature ternet of Things—fitness trackers, mobile phones,
and scope of data that’s being collected. Fully cars, coffee makers—those devices are having The #MeToo movement brought to light thousands
extended interactions with each other and the of stories of sexual harassment and resulted in
91% of adults agree that consumers have the outing of more than a dozen high-profile men
companies who make them. Our devices aren’t just
lost control of how personal information is talking to each other anymore. They’re talking to throughout 2017. A shared Google document,
collected and used by third parties.2 one another, learning about us, and starting to talk dubbed “The Shitty Media Men List,” was at one
about us. Increasingly, consumers are being left out point circulating among female journalists, who
of the conversation, unable to listen in and make entered the details of men who have sexually
2
Pew Research Center, “The state of privacy in post-Snowden America,”
last accessed January 10, 2018. sense of how their data is exchanging hands. A harassed women in the real world. When the list
068
SWATting at Trolls
Trolls are everywhere online—they’ve become
inescapable. 2017 seems to have brought out the
worst in us all. Politics, taxes, immigration, racism,
Project HyperFace is specialized fabric that confuses computer vision algorithms. homophobia and sexism led to hateful images, mes-
sages and videos being posted all over the internet.
Even the trolls got trolled. Blogger Milo Yiannopou-
to study our data so that it can shore up its operat- misclassification,” confusing the algorithms. The los, controversial for his far-right views, became
ing system and networks. What the company learns glasses succeeded in tests against the powerful famous for harassing people on Twitter. After a
will eventually trickle back down to users in the VGG and OpenFace deep neural network systems. A series of incendiary comments, which included a
form of more secure mobile systems. With the EU’s project called HyperFace showed that a specialized defense of pedophilia, he found himself besieged by
General Data Protection Regulation laws going pattern could be printed onto a hoodie to similarly an angry swarm of people and internet bots. You-
into effect this year, differential privacy will likely confuse computer vision algorithms. Tube star Logan Paul lampooned a suicide in Japan
emerge as the new normal. and his apology landed on deaf ears, as social media
067 users worldwide descended to attack. His business
066 Digital Self-Incrimination deals were suspended, series he had in the works
Anti-Recognition Cammo and Glasses were canceled, and his digital influencer’s channel
Fully 25% of Americans now own some kind of wear- was removed from Google’s Preferred premium
In response to our increasingly surveilled societies, able device, and we expect that a third of Americans advertising program.
some startups are developing specialized stickers, will own and use at least one wearable by 2022.
fabrics and glasses to help fool smart tracking Whether it’s a connected fitness device, a smart Our behavior online is seeping into the real world.
systems. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon and at earphone, or a pair of smart glasses, consumers In 2017, gamer Tyler Barriss marketed himself as
the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill are will find themselves continuously monitoring—and a middleman to gamers wanting to take revenge
have built a special pair of glasses that “facilitate being monitored—by third parties. Our legal sys- by “swatting” for hire—prank calling in the kinds of
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072- 075
Consumers use their fingerprints and faces to unlock systems
and devices.
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3
“Shape-shifting origami robot swaps bodies to roll, swim or walk,”
New Scientist. Last accessed January 10, 2018.
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Elon Musk and his new company Neuralink are hoping to commer-
cialize human-machine interface technologies.
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Would you watch a robot stripper pole dance for dollar bills? It turns
out that a lot of people did at the Sapphire Gentleman’s Club in Las
Vegas earlier this year. The robo-strippers didn’t look exactly like
humans—in place of their heads were CCTV surveillance cameras
retrofitted with red lights—and only their torsos, buttocks, thighs,
forearms and calves were covered in plastic molded to resemble
realistic (but shiny) skin. But they were, of course, wearing high heels,
and their movements closely mimicked the real thing.
Pole dancing robots are gimmicky, but they could also portend a future
where social isolationism helps usher in an era of AI-powered personal
robots, programmed to learn from us, laugh at our jokes, and never
reject our advances. We’re already part way there. In 2018, Realbotix
adds a male sex robot to its lineup; Harmony, its female bot already on
the market, has a fully customizable body and personality. The male
bot will include a detachable penis, enabling the owner to dictate when
it’s aroused. It’s plausible that robots, as they become more lifelike
and socially acceptable, will prove a better option for casual sex—we
wouldn’t have to worry about sexually-transmitted diseases, unwanted
pregnancy or rape. We could wind up healthier. But since the robots
will be available in wealthy nations first, it’s plausible that it might take
longer to develop serious relationships with other humans. We could
see birthrates tank in the world’s largest GDPs—U.S., Japan, Germany,
the U.K., France, Brazil and Korea—which could eventually lead to new
immigration rules and a shift in geopolitical power.
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Key Insight
As 2017 came to a close, the FAA announced
087
Flying Taxis
DJI makes consumer drones for the masses.
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097- 106
Key Insight 097
Autonomous Testing In Cities Around the U.S.
098
Armchair AV Mechanics
2018 is the year of the electric vehicle—
There’s still a considerable amount of real-world Online learning platform Udacity launched an open
and it’s the year we will see autonomous testing required before all of our autonomous source self-driving car class. It’s a four-month
vehicle prototypes move from car shows to cars can take to the highways. In 2018, we will see program that teaches the essentials of building
showroom floors. Major automotive giants, dozens of pilots all around the country as manufac- a self-driving car, and it’s part of an engineering
turers test their self-driving vehicles in our com- “nanodegree” offered by Udacity. Udacity co-found-
including BMW, Audi, Ford and General munities. San Francisco has been a favorite in the er is Sebastian Thrun, who had previously launched
Motors, have announced they’ll begin selling past, because its roads offer sudden inclines, dense Google’s self-driving car program. The project isn’t
AVs within the next three years. If it passes traffic and fog, while Arizona is another popular about increasing competition in the marketplace,
testing ground because it has long stretches of but rather about advancing the skills of our future
through safety regulators, GM’s fourth- straight, empty highways. But for AVs to move from workforce. MIT now offers a Deep Learning for
generation Chevy Bolt may not feature the fringe to the mainstream, they’ll need to both Self-Driving Cars course, and Stanford offers a
traditional steering wheels and pedals. test and learn under more varied circumstances— Machine Learning for Autonomous Driving class
blizzards, torrential rain, ice storms, extreme heat (both are online and open to the public). While
The initial fleet of AVs is intended for ride- and cold, heavy wind. In the near-future, regulators Udacity’s program isn’t accredited, it does promise
hailing services, which means that Uber will work to establish a national testing center with to teach all of the skills required to work within the
could be facing competition from the auto a single set of standards and practices. Outside of burgeoning field of self-driving vehicles.
the U.S., manufacturers in Sweden, Germany, Japan
manufacturers themselves.
and China are rushing to set up their own facilities. 099
Assisted Driving Before Full Automation
What drivers will see in new 2019 and 2020 mod-
els—lots of assistive features, powered by artificial
Near-term: 1 - 5 years
106 New cars will be equipped with cross-path cameras to sense nearby objects and they will have adap-
Flying Cars tive cruise control for driving in stop-and-go traffic. They will offer many driverless functions—but
Though we’re likely to see new flying car pro- humans will still be in the loop, operate the car in neighborhoods and many city streets. Fully auton-
totypes in 2018 and 2019, it’s unlikely we’ll see omous taxi services will begin testing—we’ll hail them and pay for our rides with our smartphones.
true flying cars overhead anytime soon. Even
so, Alphabet co-founder Larry Page has built a Mid-range: 5 - 10 years
not-so-secret flying car factory, breathing new Advanced Lidar and WiFi technology will transmit your vehicle’s location and will recognize other
hope into a very old tech myth. Flying cars have vehicles sharing the road. This will begin to enable cars to drive themselves on highways and many
been a persistent, trendy theme within popular city streets.
culture on and off for more than a hundred years.
Waldo Waterman’s Arrowbile was the first to Long-range: 10 - 20 years
leave the street for the sky in 1937. Three years The highway system, which has long stretches of solar cells, will have been upgraded to work in
later, Henry Ford remarked confidently, “Mark symbiosis with semi-autonomous vehicles. Highways will create power for AV charging stations.
my word: a combination airplane and motorcar is On mandated autonomous highway lanes, people will be free to read, watch videos or conduct work.
coming.” Aviation publicist Harry Bruno clarified, Human drivers will take over on smaller streets. However extreme weather events will increase.
saying that cars of the future would look like tiny Because AV manufacturers didn’t hire climate scientists to be a part of the design and program-
“copters”; when school let out, they would “fill the ming team, our cars act in weird and unexpected ways during intense heat and cold spells, sudden
sky as the bicycles of our youth filled the prewar wildfires, blizzards, heavy rain and strong winds. With more EVs drawing power from the grid, utili-
roads.” In 1949 Life magazine featured the Air-
ty companies that failed to plan ahead buckle under heavy use, especially in the summer.
phibian, an aerocar that could fly from a backyard
airstrip to LaGuardia Airport and then transform Far-range: 20 - 30 years
into a convertible-like vehicle capable of driving to
Climate and electricity issues will have been worked through—but not before a few horrific inci-
Times Square. The dream of flying cars continued
dents, which spurred new regulations and caused us to question whether it was a good idea to
into the twenty-first century and up to the pres-
ent day as people built new prototypes with verti- fully surrender ourselves to machines. We will no longer own cars and cities will no longer operate
cal take-off and landing capabilities, super-strong transit systems. Instead, automated buses will be subsidized through taxes and will be offered at
carbon fiber bodies, ducted fan propulsion, and no cost. Those with the means to do so will subscribe to a transportation service, which operates
cheaper flight-stabilizing computer systems. vehicles that are fully automated and will transport us to destinations as required.
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Image Credit: UCSB Mirage Lab
The Computational Zoom system makes it possible to automati-
cally combine wide-angle and telephoto perspectives into a single
multi-perspective image.
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Key Insight has to do with how arrest data is gathered, and Watchlist
News organizations need a new kind of special-ops how individual police departments have historically Brown Institute at Columbia University; Macrome-
team: investigative reporters who specialize in in- monitored their local communities. The model didn’t dia University of Applied Sciences; Tow Center for
vestigating the algorithms and data itself. include a rigorous check on bias in the initial data Digital Journalism at Columbia University; Algorithm-
sets. Reporters at the New York Times, Wall Street Watch.org; ProPublica; Philip Merrill College of Jour-
Examples Journal, ProPublica and Washington Post have been nalism at the University of Maryland; Media Change
applying the core practices and skills of reporting to and Innovation Division at the University of Zurich;
Algorithms, data sets and AI systems reflect the investigating algorithms.
worldviews of their architects and trainers. This in- Annenberg School of Communication & Journalism
formation is used to help make decisions, to predict and the University of Southern California; Wash-
What’s Next ington Post; New York Times; Wall Street Journal;
behavior, and to generate answers to questions.
More of these systems now govern everyday life and We will soon reach a point when we will no longer National Public Radio; Investigative Reporters &
are used by law enforcement, universities, financial be able to tell if a data set has been tampered with, Editors; National Institute for Computer-Assisted
institutions and government agencies. Journalists either intentionally or accidentally. AI systems rely Reporting.
must begin to investigate how the data and algo- on our trust. If we no longer trust the outcome,
rithms intersect with daily life. And, to prevent bias decades of research and technological advancement
in reporting, journalists must gain a better under- will be for naught. Building trust and accountability
standing of who created the algorithms and data is a matter of showing the work performed. This
sets, and what their processes were. For example, is a complicated process, as understandably news
the PredPol predictive policing system, which is organizations would want to keep certain data and
used by police departments around the U.S., rec- reporting methods private.
ommended time and time again that departments
concentrate their efforts on neighborhoods that
were overwhelmingly poor and black. The problem
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Searches for “what is the eu” and “what is brexit” surged after
the U.K. election.
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Key Insight A Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative series about Digital Frailty in Government and Public Information
In the past three years, we’ve seen the first wide- a collision that killed 20 children and devastated a American journalists watched as U.S. govern-
spread cases of important journalism being erased Colorado community went offline when the Rocky ment agencies removed studies, data and reports
from the web because of media consolidation or Mountain News went out of business. The Tampa throughout 2016, 2017 and 2018. Most notably,
because sites were no longer being maintained. Dig- Tribune, whose motto was “Life. Printed Daily,” kept the Environmental Protection Agency scrubbed its
ital Frailty is the phenomenon in which those digital its rival, The Tribune, hunting for important stories website of climate change information. This was an
assets published to a news organization’s website in the public interest, covering investigations into effort to support the Trump Administration’s ideas
are impermanent or easily broken. Tampa’s judges, legislators and law enforcement. and policies. A government website built to educate
Humanity operates on a continuum. After devastat- children, called “Energy Kids,” also scrubbed men-
Examples ing Texas, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near New tions of climate change. The Trump Administration
Perhaps not every Facebook post should be saved Orleans on the 12th anniversary of Katrina. Rising also removed LGBTQ content from federal websites,
in perpetuity, but might we need to look back on this From Ruin, an award-winning project by MSNBC, scrubbed a lot of civil rights information off of
moment in time and reflect on how our language— told the Katrina’s aftermath through the lenses of WhiteHouse.gov and scrubbed the HHS.gov website
how the very way we communicate—was shaped two small communities in Mississippi that weren’t of healthcare data. Federal agencies instructed
by our Instas, our Snaps, and our tweets? Will our covered by any other media outlet. It included a se- staff and grant recipients to avoid using certain
future historians look back, marveling at the amount ries of videos, maps, interactive elements, a forum phrases—“transgender,” “fetus,” “science-based,”
of anthropological data we were simultaneously cre- for residents—and since it only existed as a website, “evidence-based,”—citing concerns by the Trump
ating—and destroying? If this past election season there was no other way to see the stories. When Administration.
taught us anything, it’s that Twitter helped to shape Microsoft pulled out of its joint venture with NBC,
public opinion and the outcome of the election, even the project went offline.
as many controversial tweets posted by candidates
running for office, were deleted by their campaigns.
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Photo Credit: http://www.adoraattack.com/fuzzy-numbers/
Historically, news organizations have kept audience data hidden
from staff, while third-party services haven’t always been trans-
parent about what numbers they’re counting.
Key Insight It goes without saying that metrics can influence Watchlist
Social networks are under pressure to offer more editorial and business decisions, not to mention how Nielsen; Chartbeat; YouTube; Google; Instagram; Snap;
transparency in the numbers they report back to the public interprets the popularity of a story. Most Facebook; Twitter; news organizations everywhere.
news organizations. While most companies that large news organizations have hired audience en-
publish content on the web are obsessed with met- gagement and analytics managers as go-betweens.
rics, historically they’ve kept audience data hidden
from staff. What’s Next
Now that Facebook has announced it’s weighing
Examples personal posts over news stories from publishers,
Metrics are neither easy to find nor easy to under- and Google is launching a native ad-blocking client
stand for many working inside of content organiza- in Chrome, everyone in the digital marketing and
tions. In 2016, Facebook apologized for displaying advertising space is wondering what’s next for
incorrect numbers of video plays to advertisers metrics. Already, publishers and advertisers will
and publishers, and said that it had been showing question the validity of metrics that they, them-
incorrect metrics for two years as it attempted to selves, cannot verify. Anyone creating content needs
challenge YouTube. Earlier in the year, current and to understand the ebb and flow of traffic and how
former Facebook staff alleged they were instruct- one piece of content fits into the broader scope of
ed to suppress conservative news from the site’s the organization. We also expect to see news and
“Trending Topics” area. During the summer of 2017, other content as organizations develop new models
Facebook offered new landing page views and page to bring transparency in metrics to staff—without
interaction metrics, which the company said would jeopardizing editorial integrity.
offer better insights for advertisers.
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we’re continuing to watch: connected machines.
127- 129
could help computers talk to each other without
obstruction. This may seem like a subtle change in
Internet architecture, but consider the implications:
you would no longer need a third-party operator,
like Skype, to video conference with a friend—or to
broadcast live news to consumers. Videos would load
and play faster and would have no need to buffer.
Key Insight
eo, Roku, Hulu, YouTube, Showtime Anytime, iPlayer
U.S. and U.K. adults now spend close to (UK-only), All 4 (UK only), Playstation Now, HBO Now, 129
an hour a day watching online video, and Direct Now, iTunes, and of course, Netflix. Streaming Social Video
increasingly we’re using our mobile phones to Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram and Twitter all
Impact on news media orgs and publishers
access that content. But not all adults prefer offer live streaming video services—to anyone, for
Streaming services will erode local broadcast news
video. A Pew Research Center survey found markets. These services will also disrupt lon- free. This means that for the first time in history,
that more Americans prefer to watch their ger-form television news broadcasts. But they do no technical knowledge or specialty equipment is
open the door for video adaptations of books, both required to broadcast the news. As a result, we are
news (46%) than to read it (35%) or listen
fiction and nonfiction. seeing a number of newsworthy events now appear-
to it (17%). Meanwhile, the 18-34-year-old ing, completely unfiltered, across social media chan-
American millennial spends three hours a day nels: funerals, arrests, political rallies, conference
128 speeches, encounters with public officials.
watching TV programming, which is more
Decentralizing The Web
time than they spend on YouTube, Netflix, Hulu, Impact on media orgs and publishers
Twitch, Facebook and Instagram combined. The web is growing decentralized. There are a num-
ber of new approaches to publishing and receiving Streaming social video is a good way for publishers
content that bypasses the usual centers of gravity— to extend their traditional platforms from books and
127 the blockchain, WebRTC, and private networks. ebooks to reach a broader audience. While everyone
Connected TVs can stream—and news organizations now have ac-
WebRTC is the real-time communications technol- cess to that content—we must ask whether every-
TVs that connect to the internet certainly aren’t ogy supported by Alphabet, Mozilla and Opera, and thing should be broadcast. News organizations need
new. What’s changed is penetration in average it powers Google Hangouts. WebRTC can be used a framework to determine whether rebroadcasting
households and the availability of streaming apps to connect your smartphone to the articles you’re a murder, suicide or violent act streamed via social
that bypass the standard list of cable and public reading on your desktop or tablet, displaying dif- video is in the public interest.
broadcasting channels, such as Amazon Prime Vid- ferent components depending on what offers the
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Key Insight in favor of consolidation. The FCC reinstated what’s What’s Next
We are starting to see a handover of sorts: the called the “UHF discount” and has made it easier The next 24 months will be about rapid product cre-
shrinking of traditional media companies just as for broadcasters to consolidate ownership. It also ation and monetization in a rush for investment and
newer media organizations are consolidated under passed a media ownership order that now allows exits—driven by the FCC’s loosening restrictions and
single owners. In the U.S., FCC Chairman Ajit Pai has newspaper-broadcast and radio-TV cross-owner- a Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit blocking
made it easier for companies to consolidate. ship. It also removes a prohibition against two sta- AT&T from buying Time Warner. By the year 2021,
tions in a market being owned by one entity. it’s possible that AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, Charter
Examples Univision won the bankruptcy auction for Gawk- and Amazon will have replaced CBS, Viacom, the
In the past two years, Sinclair, one of America’s er Media Group (and killed Gawker.com after the New York Times, Hearst and Conde Nast as the
largest local television station owners, agreed to sale). AT&T, which owns DirecTV, considered bids biggest news and entertainment media brands in
purchase Tribune Media for $3.9 billion plus debt, for Starz, Paramount Pictures, and in the end, won the U.S.
while AT&T agreed to buy Time Warner at a stagger- Time Warner. Re/code became part of Vox, which
ing $85 billion. Chicago-based Tronc, which was spun became part of NBC, which a while back became part Watchlist
off from Tribune in advance of the sale to Sinclair, of Comcast. Verizon acquired AOL. The Financial The FCC; Comcast NBC Universal; Amazon; Axel
acquired the New York Daily News for $1 (that’s just Times was acquired by Nikkei (for a staggering $1.3 Springer; Viacom; Baidu; Bertelsmann; Time Warner;
one dollar)—along with the tabloid’s pension liabilities billion). The New York Times acquired The Wirecut- News Corp; Discovery; Disney; SoftBank Capital; AT&T;
and operational debts. It would be difficult to over- ter, Complex was acquired by Hearst and Verizon in Vox; Vice; Netflix; Hearst Ventures; Facebook; Twitter;
state just how much movement and consolidation is a joint venture, while Thrillist, NowThis and The Dodo Alphabet; Yomiuri Shimbun Holdings; Tronc; Sinclair
underway. merged with Seeker, a division of Discovery Com- Broadcast Group; CBS Television; Nextar Broadcasting
munications, and formed Group Nine Media. Tech Group; Raycom Media; E.W. Scripps; Univision; Cox Me-
Efforts have been helped by the Federal Communi- startups Newsy and Storyful were both acquired by
cations Commission, which under commissioner Ajit dia Group; Meredith Corp; Hubert Burda Media; Asahi
E.W. Scripps and News Corp respectively. Shimbun Company; Microsoft; Grupo Globo; News
Pai has been in the process of changing key rules
Corp; Univision; news organizations everywhere.
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134-137
Key Insight
Mixed Reality (MR) combines the physical and
134
Holograms
Magic Leap, which continues to raise investment funding,
launched its SDK and developers platform.
135
Virtual Reality
Virtual Reality (VR) is a computer simulated envi-
digital realms and encompasses a number of In the summer of 2017, researchers at the Univer-
ronment. As a tethered experience, VR is experi-
technologies: augmented reality (AR), virtual sity of Rochester unveiled the Illumyn 3-D Display,
enced wearing a pair of goggles, and it can stim-
reality (VR), 360-degree video and holograms. a system that uses laser projection to generate 3D
ulate sensations of being physically present in the
images in midair—sort of. They’re contained in air
scenes a user is viewing. VR can be experienced
that’s enclosed within a glass sphere field with a
What You Need To Know About MR metallic vapor. RED, the professional camera maker,
untethered as well, by slipping a mobile phone into
a special mask. In 2017, a number of headsets went
AR, VR, 360-degree video and holograms aren’t built a holographic phone called the Hydrogen that
on sale from Google, Microsoft, HTC, Oculus and
new. But in the year ahead, we’ll see more generates holograms. Microsoft’s long-awaited
Sony. Because the environment is still very new,
devices being made available to consumers and much-hyped Hololens headset and SDK became
with relatively few content offerings, the relative
available for developers in 2017.
at affordable prices—and we’ll see a number value of VR HMDs (aside from Google’s Daydream
of new content providers building out stories Bottom Line View) isn’t yet attractive for average consumers.
and experiences for each platform. This is a Hologram technology is still in development and too Bottom Line
prioritized summary, based on our research early for most organizations.
The VR marketplace become mature, but it’s still
and analysis, of how news organizations should early for widespread adoption. VR presents greater
invest their time and money. opportunities for entertainment, movies, shows and
gaming.
Bottom Line
Because 360-degree videos don’t require separate
hardware for viewing, it offers a cost-effective
alternative to VR that has greater market potential
in the immediate term.
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Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) doesn’t simulate an entirely
new environment, but rather overlays information
right onto your field of vision. But you need a lens
and screen of some kind, whether that’s a mobile
phone or a pair of glasses. In 2017, every major
tech company, from Alphabet to Facebook to Snap,
made big announcements about investing heavily in
the future of AI.
Meantime, Magic Leap, which continues to raise in-
vestment funding, launched its SDK and developers
platform—and it will be using a new kind of lightfield
chip. Magic Leap projects light directly into the
user’s eye, which makes it seem as though digital
objects exist in the real world.
Bottom Line
AR offers the greatest market potential for organi-
zations in the near-future.
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Key Insight kyo, VR Park offers more than basic games—play- Watchlist
There are a host of fun, interactive mixed reality ers can opt-in to swinging harnesses, flying plat- Intel; Grand View Research; HTC; Samsung; Viveland;
games on the market—but not everyone can afford forms and platforms that simulate bungee jumping, Oculus; Facebook; Alphabet; VRNISH; Inception VR.
the computer and gaming equipment necessary flying and yes, even falling off skyscrapers.
to play. As a result, a new kind of arcade for the
next-generation of gamer is coming to a venue What’s Next
near you. Mixed Reality arcades are proving to be a big busi-
ness. We expect that as the MR market matures,
Examples we’ll see additional arcades opening up every-
In the 1980s, video game arcades became popular— where. One distinction that might keep MR arcades
at first with geeky kids and then the mainstream from going the way of Pac Man—all the haptic inter-
masses, as Pac Man, Galaga and Space Invaders faces. As games become more immersive, players
consoles popped up all around the world. They took will need to update more than their headsets and
off because kids and adults alike both loved playing consoles. At some point, it might be easier and
them—and because early at-home consoles and more cost effective to buy a membership rather
computers were still too costly for the average than a new flight suit every few months.
person. We’re in a similar transition in 2018, as VR
games move from the fringe to the mainstream.
Mixed Reality gaming parks are opening up every-
where, giving everyone the ability to strap in to a
host of games—but this time around, they don’t take
quarters. Startup Virtual World Arcade offers a
membership packages for unlimited VR time. In To-
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140
MARKETING
AND
ADVERTISING
TECHNOLOGIES
140 VR For Marketing
141 AI For the Creative Process
142 FOBO
143 Retail APIs
144 Digital Associates
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NEWS INDUSTRY
Better Batteries INFORMS ACT
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Key Insight Musk’s battery is the size of an American football ing with gold nanowires housed in a gel electrolyte,
It’s a common first-world problem: our devices field—not exactly the right size for your mobile which can last significantly longer than today’s
never seem to have enough battery life, and just phone. But there are a number of researchers and batteries. Spanish startup Graphenano has built
when we need power the most, we either forget startups hoping to bring new kinds of batteries, ca- a battery out of graphene, while researchers at
our chargers or can’t find a spot to plug in. Building pable of storing renewable energy, to market soon. Toyota are looking at a solid state battery that uses
a better battery has been an elusive challenge for sulfide superionic conductors. If you’re someone
decades—that might start to change in 2018. What’s Next constantly looking for a place to plug in, you won’t
The problem with modern batteries isn’t about need to worry for too much longer.
Examples making the power—it’s how to store enough of it.
Startup Ossia Inc. built a wireless charging system Watchlist
In 2016, South Australia suffered a massive black-
out, which Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull blamed that can power AA batteries from 30 feet away. Al- Tesla; Alphabet; Baseload Renewables; University
on renewable energy targets—the push towards phabet’s Project Malta aims to capture more clean of California-Irvine; Toyota; Nissan; Graphenano;
renewables is what led to the problem, he argued. energy when it’s produced, by using salt to store General Motors; Huawei; Energous Corp; the Fed-
In response, Elon Musk offered to build a massive it on a large scale. Luxury watchmaker Ressence’s eral Communications Commission; Qualcomm; U.S.
battery farm, capable of storing enough wind and Type 2 e-Crown Concept smartwatch collects and Department of Energy; MIT Department of Materials
solar energy to power all of South Australia when stores energy created when you walk, as well as Science and Engineering; Ossia Inc; Khosla Ventures;
usage grew too high—and that he’d do it in 100 days, solar energy when you’re outdoors. Cambridge, Founders Fund.
or the whole thing would be free. The local govern- Massachusetts-based startup Baseload Renew-
ment accepted his offer, and Musk delivered on his ables is working to market batteries that can store
promise, and the system has been up and running renewable energy in a battery. Lithium-ion batteries
since November 2017. have limits, though, which is why researchers at
the University of California-Irvine are experiment-
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Earth’s new geological layers show that humans have left a per-
manent mark on the planet.
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In the future, extreme weather could shift the U.S.’s breadbasket states
far north into Canada, and our citrus production from Florida and Califor-
nia to Tennessee, Kentucky and Ohio. Existing farming communities could
be devastated within a generation. Another possibility: genomic editing
makes it possible to produce more fruits, grains and vegetables, so our
farms shrink in size and move underground and into buildings capable of
withstanding big storms. Most of our agricultural sector is automated—col-
laborative robots and smart sensors plant, monitor, and harvest what we
need. Our food is grown hyper-locally, year-round.
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experiment this year that would spray a small amount of material
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(water, initially) into the stratosphere. Then it will fly through the
spray with instruments to measure how those particles interact
with the atmosphere, so scientists can start to understand
whether geoengineering is even feasible.
Key Insight slow some from melting. Another possibility is oce- Watchlist
To counteract extreme weather and climate change, anic iron fertilization—dumping enormous amounts Princeton University; NASA; National Oceanic and
researchers are looking to geoengineering—large- of iron sulfate into large swaths of the ocean. Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Department of
scale technological and scientific interventions to Theoretically, it would stimulate the growth of Energy; Department of Homeland Security; Columbia
counteract the damage we’ve caused to the planet. phytoplankton, the tiny sea life that absorb carbon University’s Earth Institute; United Nations’ Inter-
dioxide, release oxygen and are gobbled up by other governmental Panel on Climate Change; European
Examples creatures. Some scientists have proposed launch- Geosciences Union; Potsdam Institute for Climate
ing enormous, mirrored parasols into the strato- Impact Research; National Center for Atmospheric
It probably sounds terrifying—or at the very least, sphere, which would reflect sunlight back into space
like a plot from a big-budget sci-fi movie. Scientists Research.
and (again theoretically) could cool the Earth’s at-
are quietly researching massive geoengineering mosphere over time. One of the most controversial
projects that could help stave off sea-level rise and ideas is to have a fleet of jets fly around the planet
curtail our planet’s warming temperatures. One constantly and inject sulfur dioxide gas overhead,
project from Princeton University scientist Michael which could reflect the sunlight back.
Wolovick involves building massive piles of sand or
other materials dumped to the sea floor, to build What’s Next
walls around glaciers—sort of like a scaffolding to
prevent them from collapsing. Farther beneath the Scientists can run simulations using available
surface of the ocean is warmer sea water. As it data, but it’s impossible to predict the second
moves closer to glaciers, it destabilizes the foun- and third-order implications of geoengineering in
dation, causing pieces to break off and melt into advance. Even so, the fate of the whole planet is at
the ocean. Shoring up their foundation could keep stake. No one country can—or should—take the lead
glaciers submerged in the icy upper layers of water, on geoengineering. U.S. Secretary of State Rex
and—theoretically—prevent them from melting. It’s Tillerson said that climate change is “just an engi-
not a perfect method for all glaciers, but it can help neering problem”.
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Key Insight before you take your first bite. Researchers at the Watchlist
Deep learning is being used to help identify food for University of Massachusetts are using deep learn- Abundant Rotobics; Plantix; FFRRobotics; Blue River
a number of reasons: to help computers have more ing for computer-assisted dietary assessments, Technology; John Deere Labs; Microsoft; Prospera;
robust conversations with us about what we’re eat- while scientists at Microsoft have already incorpo- IBM; Alphabet (Google); University of Massachusetts;
ing, to calculate the number of calories in a dish, and rated their deep learning prototypes for recognizing Apple; Carnegie Mellon; MIT Media Lab; University of
to spot spoiled or tainted food. popular Asian and Western foods into Bing local Tokyo; Penn State University; University of Maryland;
search engine. At the MIT Media Lab, students are PlantVillage.
Examples working on an organic barcode that’s invisible to
us, but could be read by machines—it could be used
Indian farmers can now snap and upload photos to help consumers more easily trace produce as it
of their problem crops to Plantix, a cloud-based AI moves around the world.
system that automatically recognizes the plant and
likely disease, pest or nutritional deficiency. It’s a What’s Next
game-changer for local farmers. California startup
Abundant Robotics and Israeli-based FFRRobotics This technique can be used to find and sort bad
are both developing automated picking systems that products on food assembly lines, and it can help
scan and “read” produce to determine when it’s growers better identify crop disease. Deep learning
ripe. Blue River Technology, recently purchased by for food recognition could soon mean a number of
John Deere Labs, is using deep learning to automat- opportunities for agricultural companies, farmers,
ically detect and spray weeds. food manufacturers, restaurants and those watch-
ing their diets.
On the consumer side, deep learning will soon be
used to help us learn what’s in the food we eat—and
even where it came from. Computer models will be
able to calculate the nutritional value of your meal
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Photo courtesy: NASA.
NASA is already studying terraforming on surfaces far away
from Earth.
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158-167
Key Insight
Biology is one of the most important
What You Need To Know About
Genome Editing
through future generations, and so that
millions of humans in high-risk regions no
longer suffer from the disease. There are
technology platforms of the 21st century. Genome editing is a quickly-developing,
therapeutic possibilities in human medicine
Advancements in genome editing will game-changing field promising to influence
as well. Editing our genetic code could mean
have a profound affect on all living things, the future of life on our planet. Mapping the
eradicating certain genetic diseases—like
potentially helping us to live longer, human genome has been a long and difficult
cystic fibrosis—so they can’t be passed along
healthier lives. process. Recently, sequencing technology
to future generations. Liver cells could be
has become more accessible and affordable
edited so that they lower the bad cholesterol
to research labs, which would enable them
levels in families that have inherited
to work towards personalized medical
mutations.
treatments for vexing diseases like cancer.
In 2017, there were a number of important
Eight years ago researchers unveiled a gene
advancements—as well as a paper that
editing technique called CRISPR-Cas9, which
showed the potential limits of CRISPR.
allows scientists to edit precise positions
The first human embryos in the U.S. were
on DNA using a bacterial enzyme. New
modified using CRISPR at Oregon Health
technologies make CRISPR gene editing more
and Science University. Researchers
affordable. The implications are tremendous.
successfully corrected a genetic mutation
Mosquitoes carrying malaria could be edited
causing a deadly heart condition. World-
so that they no longer carry the disease
renowned geneticist George Church and
Very Near-Term
Pest Control vs Ecological Weaponization
Genome editing can be used in mosquitos, which carry malaria—that disease kills
millions of people worldwide each year. The technique alters a section of the DNA,
making it impossible for future generations to spread malaria to humans. Howev-
er, some security experts warn that the same process could be used in reverse—
to rapidly spread a biological weapon that could be impossible to stop.
10 – 15 Years Away
Longer Lifespans vs Overpopulation
Some argue that genome editing could be used to give humans longer lifespans
and to lower mortality rates—which would result in a devastating strain on our
global supply of food and greater environmental degradation. On the other hand,
genome editing is also being researched to create heartier plants and dou-
ble-muscled livestock for human consumption.
20 Years Away
Healthier Babies vs Super Humans
Genomic editing will someday help eradicate heritable diseases—like cystic fibro-
sis, Tay-Sachs disease, Huntington disease, Leigh Syndrome—from the popula-
tion. The same techniques could be used additively, tweaking our musculoskeletal
composition and I.Q. Very wealthy parents might be offered options to edit and
enhance their future children. On a grander scale, this technology could be at-
tractive to world leaders who play the long game in geopolitical power. Develop-
ing a population of Super Humans—physically strong, mentally powerful—would be
a huge strategic advantage.
164 166
Precision Medicine Just For You Genome Editing Research Clashes With Public
This is a new approach to personalized treatment Opinion
and prevention, allowing doctors to design a treat- In China, human CRISPR trials have been under-
ment strategy using our own genes as guides. In the way for several years. Sichuan University began
future, there would no longer be a single medication testing modified cells on people with lung cancer
for all, but rather an individualized treatment for as early as 2015, while in Guangzhou, researchers
each one of us individually. The market for precision from Sun Yat-sen University published the results
medicine is enormous, attracting new partnerships of their tests on human embryos in 2016. All of
between corporate behemoths. In January 2018, these stories raised concerns for ethicists and
GE Healthcare and pharma-giant Roche announced biologists in other countries, and yet we still have Scientists stored French movie L’arrivée d’un train en gare de La
a joint venture to co-develop precision medicine no global norms or a global agreement detailing Ciotat in DNA.
products for cancer and critical care. In the U.S., how we should experiment with and use emerging
the National Institutes of Health created All of Us, a biological technologies. In the U.S., U.K. and Europe,
national program aimed at gathering data from one CRISPR trials will begin in earnest during 2018.
meant to boost your mood. Australia-based Smart-
million Americans to help accelerate precision medi- As the results of trials are published, we expect
Cap is a tracking system that uses voice warnings
cine advancements. some amount of public outcry, which could lead to
and vibrations to keep you alert while on the job.
the spread of misinformation, eventual calls for
Canadian startup InteraXon’s Muse headband uses
165 regulation and the stifling of research and funding.
neurofeedback to help manage stress and improve
There’s precedent for our forecast: remember Dolly
Running Out Of Space For Genome Storage athletic performance. The Emotiv Epoc+ and Emotiv
the sheep?
One of the fastest-growing datasets in the world Insight and mobile EEG devices monitor your brain
is made up of our human genetic data. By 2025, activity and analyzes cognitive performance. Dop-
167 pel, which is worn on the wrist, uses electric pulses
researchers at the University of Illinois at Urba-
na-Champaign estimate that we may be out of data Nootropics and Neuroenhancers to augment your energy. The pulsations, which you
storage space for human genomes. As precision In the next few years, a number of drugs (also dial in based on your needs, are supposed to have
medicine, CRISPR and gene therapy technologies called “nootropics”) and devices, intended to en- a similar effect on your brain as music does. The
continue to advance and improve, our storage needs hance our cognitive ability and manage stress, will Thync Kit is a series of electrodes and a triangular
will explode along with the computing power and be made available to the public. device that you stick on to your head—and a mobile
requirements for acquiring, distributing, analyzing, app synching you to your smartphone. It delivers
Nootropics are dietary supplements that have been low-grade electric pulses to influence either your
encrypting and safeguarding our genomics data. As shown to improve cognitive function—even if they’re
technology becomes increasingly intertwined with sympathetic (fight or flight) or your parasympa-
not officially regulated or approved by the FDA. Ba- thetic (rest and digest) nervous system.
biology, we’re realizing that we didn’t plan ahead for copa monnieri, panax ginseng and ginkgo biloba are
adequate storage capacity, and that we didn’t create all being marketed to help promote mental clarity, And for those who want to get more meta: South
good technology workflows for storing all that data. focus attention and retain information. Korean startup Looxid Labs is building a headband
Australia’s Garvan Institute of Medical Research to gather metrics while you’re on nootropics or
is looking into different processes and workflow to Neuroenhancer devices are intended to record wearing neuroenhancer devices. It promises to
reduce the genomic data footprint going forward. brain waves and send feedback. Some promise to collect all the data necessary to tell you whether or
help you become more productive, while others are not you actually relaxed.
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The Human Cell Atlas team will create the first map of all the cells
that make up the human body.
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Key Insight trying to find ways to make good use of what we’re storm, which caused a spike in emergency room
Patients are creating a trove of data that could creating. Differential privacy measures could enable visits, and there was a local flu outbreak.
contribute to their healthcare provider’s overall hospital systems to anonymize our private details Not all future scenarios are bleak. Our health data,
assessment. Packaging all that data—and figuring while still making our data useful to researchers. combined with artificial intelligence, could soon allow
out how to make use of it—is still a challenge. So is New software from companies like Validic, allow doctors to provide us better preventative care.
making sure it’s secured. doctors to collect this other data and incorporate it
into their medical records—as long as patients give Watchlist
Examples their consent. GE Healthcare, Meditech, Allscripts,
eClinicalWorks and Cerner are all building products GE Healthcare; Meditech; Allscripts; eClinicalWorks;
As of this report’s publication date, the key pro- to make better use of our data. Cerner; Validic; HumanAPI; Vivify; Apple; IBM; Micro-
visions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were soft; Qualcomm; Tactio; Alphabet; Medicare; Medic-
being debated in congress, while the Trump Ad- What’s Next aid; national health systems; insurance companies.
ministration continued in its efforts to dismantle
the program. Even if the ACA is repealed, all of the Healthcare systems and providers will need to shore
electronic medical records systems that were put up security fast. On a near-weekly basis, hackers
in place to meet compliance regulations, are likely to are targeting hospitals and doctors, holding patient
stay. data for ransom. In May 2017, hackers used the
WannaCry malware to break into the U.K.’s National
Anytime we visit a doctor’s office, all of our health Health Service, crippling the nation’s hospitals and
data is filed electronically. We’re also creating clinics. In January 2018, hackers used the remote
troves of health data via our fitness trackers, cars, access portal to break into a rural Indiana hospital.
smartphones and watches, which monitor our They demanded 4 bitcoin to release the data. The
behavior. All of this data has to be stored, and the timing was awful: there had just been a serious ice
medical community and public health sector are now
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Photo courtesy: Ortiz Catalan et al., Science Translational Medicine
In the near-future, prosthetics will both move and communicate
the sensation of touch.
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Magic Leap’s new MR glasses will sent to developers in 2018.
181
Smart Gloves
Canadian researchers at Simon Fraser Univer-
sity designed a set of interconnected gloves to
help transmit a sense touch through the internet.
When someone moves her fingers in one glove, her
actions are sent to her partner wearing the other.
Sony has been filing patents for haptic glove con-
trollers, which would simulate the physical sensa-
tions of slicing, punching and shooting.
182
Tattooables
Medicine will start to look very different. Ta-
tooables—temporary skin that can store data and
deliver drugs—have entered trials. Researchers at
the Institute for Basic Science and Seoul National
University in South Korea, the University of Texas
in Austin, the University of Tokyo, Stanford and the
University of California at San Diego are all work-
ing on electronic second skins. MC10 has already
created microscopic, organic semiconductors and
carbon nanotubes that stretch and flex and can
be powered wirelessly. Called BioStampRC, it’s far
thicker than a tattooable, but the idea is the same— up to its Health App. There may be other projects
and it’s only a matter of time before the technology in the works—recent European patent filings show
shrinks. that Apple is researching smart fabrics for wallets,
arm bands and cushions. Google’s Project Jacquard
183 partnered with Levi’s and launched a smart jacket,
which it’s now selling in retail locations around the
Thinkables
U.S. Biofabricate is growing fabrics in a lab. Projects
Thinkables will soon allow more adventurous in the works include drug-releasing medical textiles
gamers to control games using only their thoughts. and fabrics that regulate moisture in our skin.
Boston startup Neurable created a brain-controlled
VR game called Awakening that lets you control the Bragi’s hearables double as digital assistants.
186
game with your thoughts. The 4D Force platform
detects brain waves, capturing EEG/ EOG/ EMG Smartwatches
signals and converting them into signals a comput- There are lots of smartwatches now in the market,
er can understand. though Apple dominates sales worldwide. In 2017,
Samsung, Fitbit and Garmin all released new models, 188
184 and we anticipate even more launches in 2018. Luxu-
Wireless Body Area Networks
ry brands like Louis Vuitton, Cartier, Tiffany, Armani,
Ingestables Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) commu-
Tag Heuer, Bulgari and Montblanc are now getting
In the next few years, we’ll see several new ingestible into the business, launching on the Android platform. nicate information from your wearable devices
and implantable devices that deliver drug therapy, back to medical servers, app manufacturers and
monitor our vital statistics, stimulate our brains, help your home computer. Sensors, such as devices to
187
manage pain and bladder control and more. (See also: monitor your heart rate or oxygen level, collect
Advanced Robotics and Genome Editing sections.) Smart Shoes data and send it back to a central hub (most often,
In early 2018, Baltimore-based Under Armour your smartphone) which then relays the informa-
launched its next-generation set of connected tion to a medical team or health care monitoring
185
running shoes, whose foam soles include an accel- service. There are a lot of benefits: rather than
Smart Fabrics moving into an assisted living facility or spending a
erometer, a gyroscope, a battery and a Bluetooth
A new breed of weavables and connected fabrics— module. The shoes collect and store data, allowing lot of time in the hospital, patients can instead move
textiles woven with sensors and other technolo- you to go out for a run without having to bring along back home while being provided with virtual care.
gies—will provide haptic feedback for a number of your smartphone. They also set a baseline the first While some of the established medical devices use
practical purposes. Japan-based Xenoma created time you use them, and then track distance, stride strong encryption algorithms, many new wearable
a set of smart pajamas for people suffering from length and your running cadence over time. Others devices don’t. They’re sending a lot of unencrypted,
dementia. It would offer patients greater freedom of in the market include Altra IQ for fitness, Orphe for unsecured personal data – including our locations
movement by geofencing them in a designated area, light shows at night, and Solepower to generate – across the Internet. As the hacking community
without needing to confine them to hospital rooms. power for your cell phone while you hike. becomes more sophisticated, it’s started target-
Apple is researching smart fabric watch straps and ing hospitals and clinics. The U.S. Department of
other kinds of interactive garmets, which would sync Homeland Security has been investigating several
cybersecurity cases related to WBANs.
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Key Insight bandwidth and processors—as well as the now-ubiq- with no immediate solution. Meanwhile, in the U.S.,
FTI has been tracking the evolution of the Internet uitous availability of smartphones and WiFi in if internet service providers are legally allowed to
of Things (IoT) for a decade. This year, we see a con- industrialized nations. Even the internet itself got throttle access and speed, it could cause latency
vergence pitting the IoT’s growth against the seri- an upgrade to something called Internet Protocol and hiccups in our connected devices. This could
ous challenges posed by hackers and policymakers. Version 6 (IPv6), which is helping to expand the IoT frustrate Alexa and Google Home users—conver-
so that there are enough usable addresses to go sations with digital assistants could face constant
Examples around. International standards organizations are interruption and lag. But it also means security risks
working on a future open standard, just as HTTP for everyone. If you’re away from home and a smart
Billions of smart sensors and devices in our homes, and FTP play critical roles in how we move content smoke detector sends you a notification that your
offices, schools and cars are talking to each other, around on the web today. garage is on fire, you—and the fire department—
monitoring information and activity, and automat- would want that message right away. If our ISPs
ing tasks in order to make your life easier. These What’s Next determine which accounts, services and devices get
devices and their protocols make up the Internet of priority, that could spell disaster.
Things (IoT). In the next few years, there could be as New privacy laws in Europe and net neutrality
many as 30 billion connected devices and machines rollbacks could seriously impact all of this prog- Securing the IoT will continue to be a challenge in the
online: fitness trackers, traffic lights, bras, autono- ress. Once the General Data Protection Regulation coming year. IoT devices are considered ideal tar-
mous vehicle components, farm equipment, parking (GDPR) goes into effect, it will change how devices gets, because consumers are purchasing more and
meters, coffee machines, personal drones, shoes, can collect and use human data. It’s unclear whether more connected devices without also learning about
doorbells, fish tanks, bicycles, pajamas—we could fill a smart thermostat in someone’s home will meet how to secure them. Just as your computer can be
another hundred pages of this report just listing the compliance standards once the regulations are in hijacked by a botnet, so can your smart doorbell. In
diverse ecosystem that will soon become the IoT. place. Now think of all the billions of devices that rely October 2017, researchers at Netlab 360 found the
on human-generated data, or that send data with IoT_reaper botnet, which was infecting an aver-
Why the sudden explosion? It has to do with the personal attributes back to us through mobile apps— age of 10,000 new devices a day. In 2016, the Mirai
sharply-decreased cost of components, sensors, that could be a catastrophic compliance problem botnet infiltrated tens of thousands of DVRs and
Watchlist
Qualcomm; Cisco; Symantec; Bitdefender; Global
Cyber Alliance; Alphabet; Amazon; Apple; Honeywell;
IFTTT; GE; Intel; Cisco; IBM; Sony; Samsung; LG; Ha-
doop; Arduino; SmartThings; AT&T; Verizon; Erics-
son; Atmel; littleBits; National Cybersecurity Alliance;
European Union; U.S. Congress; Federal Commu-
nications Commission; Federal Trade Commission;
internet service providers.
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Key Insight What’s Next distributed network. But what if the real-world gets
The Internet of Things—that massive interconnection Shodan and Thingful are search engines for IoT hacked? It’s possible that someone could re-label
between all of our smart devices and the internet— devices. It was intended as a security tool to help IT contaminated medication as pure. As the searchable
is growing at breakneck speed. We already have professionals keep track of all the devices connect- physical IoT grows, we will need a new system to
billions of physical devices connected to the inter- ed to a network—but hackers also found that they verify searches.
net, but what about also searching for real-world could remotely access baby cameras and garage
things? doors. German lighting manufacturer Osram built a Watchlist
tiny chip that can scan a bar of chocolate to deter- Shodan; Thingful; Qualcomm; Intel; Alphabet; Micro-
Examples mine how much cacao is inside. Its chip helps power soft; Apple; Tencent; Alibaba; Baidu; Amazon; Osram;
Several years ago, Amazon updated its mobile app a consumer-grade molecular spectrometer built Consumer Physics; MatchMaker Exchange.
to allow people to shop for real-world objects by by Israeli startup Consumer Physics, which allows
scanning their barcodes. Its next iteration let users anyone to extract information out of food and pills.
take and upload a photo. Now, you only need to wave This could enable you to scan a piece of chicken in
your smartphone near an object you want to get order to search the fat and calories on your plate.
more information on, or you can directly add it to Their research is also able to recognize prescription
your shopping cart. Online search giants like Google and over-the-counter drugs in order to spot coun-
and Bing have made it easy to find just about any terfeits. Osram expects that there will be consumer
information in the digital realm. The idea is to let products able to search the physical world launch-
us search real-world objects, as well as all of the ing in the next few years. Meantime, MatchMaker
devices connected to the Internet of Things. Exchange is an “Internet of DNA,” matching the DNA
from sick people around the world to help research-
ers discover rare genes. It’s not unrealistic to say
that in the near future, everything you see (and even
the things you can’t) will become searchable via a
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Key Insight August smart lock, created a new home security Watchlist
Cameras themselves are getting smarter, and they camera called the Hive View—it automatically sends Amazon; Alphabet; Microsoft; Qualcomm; Intel; Ten-
now have on-device AI capabilities. They are able to smartphone notifications when it detects any unusu- cent; University of Washington; Microsoft; Camera
listen to and watch what’s in the frame, then make al motion or sound. Engineers at the University of Culture Research Group at the MIT Media Lab; In-
decisions based on that information. That might Washington have developed a system of networked stitute of Anthropomatics & Robotics at the Karl-
include locking a door, recording a conversation, or cameras that can automatically track people as they sruhe Institute of Technology; National Instruments;
following a robber as he runs down the street. move. Combined with facial and object recogni- Electronic Frontier Foundation; Austrian Institute of
tion algorithms and AI, smart cameras will provide Technology; University of Birmingham.
Examples unprecedented security opportunities. They will be
used in our cars, bringing us one big step closer
Late in 2017, Amazon Web Services announced to hybrid-autonomous vehicles, where drivers will
In the near-future, smart cameras
a $250 AI-powered camera called DeepLens that choose to take control of the wheel or allow the car with on-device AI capabilities will
includes optical character recognition, as well as to drive itself during stop-and-go traffic.
image and object recognition. A smart camera would connect with the IoT and make
enable companies to remotely count and monitor What’s Next autonomous decisions, like when to
warehouse inventories. They could also let confer-
ence organizers and Hollywood movie studios gauge Advancements in smart camera technology are criti- lock the doors, whether to close off
the level of enthusiasm during performances (no cal to the future of our AI ecosystem. Soon, they will
more focus groups or having to beg attendees to be able to see in the dark. Recognition algorithms bridge access, and which roommate
fill out post-conference surveys!). Google launched will do more than spot people and pets. They’ll gets the last slice of pie.
AIY Vision Kit, a smart camera kit that works with connect with other IoT devices, making autonomous
Rasberry Pi—the company is hoping that DIY en- decisions—like when to lock the doors, whether to
thusiasts and developers will start building smart close off bridge access, and which roommate gets
camera applications. Yves Béhar, who designed the the last slice of pie.
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Urbaneers developed a smart kitchen prototype with wireless
devices and in-counter charging pads.
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Basic Income KEEP
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NEWS INDUSTRY
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NEWS INDUSTRY
AI in Hiring INFORMS ACT
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IMPACT ON THE
ON THE
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The most probable future is that AI is used in varying degrees by companies to improve
hiring decisions while freeing up resources of HR teams to do more “human” tasks. But
it would not be surprising to hear that some companies have shrunk their HR staffs or
employed a completely automated hiring process free from human interaction in the very
near future.
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Examples
With over 6 million daily users, Slack is by far the
most popular platform integrating hundreds of
productivity bots with the workplace. The Obie bot
is used as an onboarding tool, allowing new employ-
ees to find answers to simple questions about the
company. Scheduling bots like Meekan sync up with
coworkers’ calendars to provide possible meeting
times. If you’re trying to reduce wasted time that a
stand-up meeting takes up, bots send out a request
for an update from team members and pushes out
a report once everyone has sent theirs in. Bots like
Lunch Train help coordinate team lunches and their
locations. Slack isn’t the only platform being used:
MatterMost and Rocket.Chat allow companies to
host all content locally, rather than in the cloud.
With teams constantly needing to be connected, e-mail will be viewed as a slower and
less efficient form of communication. Because of this, companies will move away from
email entirely. But for companies that must keep a paper trail, what would the legal
considerations be once employees are chatting and using bots? It’s possible to create
logs, but they would be difficult to sift and sort through. For those companies that
monitor staff email for regulatory reasons, messaging systems like Slack could make
compliance difficult.
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Key Insight What’s Next But a digital divide still exists. Developing markets
People are increasingly comfortable renting goods The sharing economy is expected to continue grow- still need better, cheaper access to the internet—
and services versus needing to own them. Across ing in the coming years, but this growth will likely and they need smart phones. As more citizens gain
various industries, service providers or communi- occur in different ways. In countries like the U.S., access to smart phones, we anticipate a spike in
ties have begun to pool resources for a fee. where a large percentage of the population already sharing economy growth. It’s already starting to
has access to the internet and smartphones, the happen across Latin and South America, with local
Examples sharing economy market is already fairly mature companies like Komlep helping to build the infra-
and robust. Further growth will come in the form of structure for sharing and lendership.
Uber, Rent The Runway and Airbnb are just three of
the thousands of sharing economy companies used more unique B2B, B2C and C2C services. Compa-
nies will optimize resources by renting out unused Watchlist
by 56 million Americans in 2017. Sharing economy
companies are everywhere: transportation, real equipment to each other and sharing workspaces. Crowd Companies Council; Facebook; Etsy; Luxe;
estate, retail, professional services, even biotech- Likewise, we expect to see a new crop of companies Peerspace; Zaaryl; LawnLove; Rent The Runway;
nology. The sharing economy is becoming meta: We- that exist to provide shared services for upcoming Airbnb; Komlep; WeWork; Style Lend; PoshMark;
Work is a collaborative workspace that houses many niche industries (baby stroller rentals for traveling Funding Circle; Sparkbox; FarmLink; Toys Trunk;
sharing economy startups. It earned a $20 billion families). The success of these newer companies Uber; Lyft; Postmates; Saucy; NeighborGoods; Vay-
valuation in late 2017. will depend on how consumers value their services— able; ToolLocker; Trustify; Seateroo; Scribendi and
and importantly, whether local, state, or federal many others.
entities see the need for regulation.
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Key Insight Recently, Estonia began offering digital identities Estonia’s e-residents are primarily composed of
E-residency is now being offered in Estonia, making with a financial status of resident to entrepre- six groups:
it easier for entrepreneurs to establish location neurs—without requiring that they physically take
up residence in the country. As part of this beta 1. Digital nomads who seek location independent
independent businesses with access to EU financial incorporation
infrastructure. Other countries are looking at simi- program, e-residents pay 100 euro and apply online
lar models to attract startups and funding. at e-resident.gov.ee, and then need to travel to 2. Entrepreneurs/freelancers seeking E.U.
a local Estonian embassy for an interview and to market access and its benefits, including its
Examples receive a smart card, which they can use to sign legal frameworks, access to financial services,
documents online. Once approved, e-residents gain and higher level of trust
Estonia, which borders Russia to the east, Latvia access to a number of services—including an E.U.
to the south and sits across the Baltic Sea from company designation and E.U. bank accounts. This 3. Entrepreneurs within the E.U. whom seek to
Finland, has been operating most of its government generates revenue for the Estonian government reduce costs vs. their physical residency
services online for the past 15 years, from tax filing while reducing costs and paperwork for entrepre-
to contract signing to filling prescriptions and even neurs around the world. 4. Entrepreneurs facing Brexit who are seeking
voting. With a population of just 1.3 million people, to retain access to E.U. markets
Estonia figured out early on how to operationalize
digital tools to service its citizens. 5. Startup entrepreneurs seeking funding from
new regions
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Key Insight ments space due to their highly developed network 3. Traditional financial service players entering/
Financial service and payment providers are tapping of merchants that accept chat-based payments, purchasing the space: Banks are partnering or
into social interactions as a driver of preference for blurring the lines between sending money to a friend buying infrastructure to enable P2P payments.
financial services. vs. sending money to a store. For example, Citibank has partnered with Zelle
to allow for payments-to-contacts email ad-
Examples What’s Next dresses. Mastercard and Visa are allowing
We believe that the payments infrastructure will card-to-card payments through services such
Initially, systems like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and as Mastercard Send or Visa Direct.
Samsung Pay were designed primarily for online become an invisible service layer that goes behind
purchases, followed by convergence into in-store quality customer experiences. The market should Focusing on customer experience is key. This should
transactions. Those programs are now expanding, evolve on three fronts: lead to a period of expansion, where multiple frag-
allowing person-to-person (P2P) payments and 1. User experience integration: Splitwise inte- mented platforms and services will be accepted
seamless integration into other apps and services. grates Venmo, where Splitwise calculates the for specific use cases. Partnerships will eventually
Last year, many established technology players—in- net balance owed or due across roommates and begin to coalesce, driven by primary relationship
cluding Facebook, Snap, Google and Apple–-launched Venmo executes the payments. holders, price and strength of the network—for
functionality to enable P2P payments. example, Android Pay and Google Wallet merging into
2. Increasing acceptance/size of the network: Google Pay. It is additionally worth noting that as
The most advanced players seek to embed the func- PayPal enables merchants to receive Venmo
tionality as seamlessly as possible into existing cus- social payment networks increase in popularity and
transactions. This is an example of letting cus- scale, they will become more vulnerable to hackers
tomer experiences, including chat applications. The tomer interactions drive payment preferences
iMessage platform allows P2P payments, via chat, and fraud.
at digital merchants, effectively expanding the
across many different platforms, including Venmo size and value of the Venmo network overnight.
and Square Cash. The majority of these services Watchlist
do not charge transaction fees. Wechat and Alipay Apple; Google; Amazon; Microsoft; Facebook; PayPal;
are significant players in the Chinese mobile pay- WeChat; Alibaba; Mastercard; Visa; Ingenico; Citi-
bank; BBVA; Zelle; Exeq.
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requirements of the current securities market.
ICOs provide global access to funds while having no
KEEP standards of ownership, participation, reporting
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increase in the entrants with this objective in mind
208
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aimed at bringing ICOs, exchanges and trading into
alignment with existing financial structures.
Digital currency: We see this use case decreasing
in importance, popularity and relevance. Crypto-
currencies face a significant hurdle in acceptance
and volatility if they are to become true currencies.
Key Insight providing “a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.” Consumers would need to be able to reliably ex-
It was intended as a worldwide, decentralized digi- change currency for a good or service, and at the
Cryptocurrencies are digital assets or tal currency, where P2P transactions are recorded moment, it’s difficult to do that with Bitcoin. We do
stores of wealth that use a crowd-regulat- in a pseudo-anonymous public distributed ledger. not see acceptance of cryptocurrencies growing as
ed public ledger system. Bitcoin is the most 2017 has been a turbulent year for Bitcoin. It crashed a means for exchange at a wide-scale level. When
common example of a cryptocurrency, or 30% six times, yet was up more than 1,500 % over 12 we look at Bitcoin, its volatility makes it too risky to
digital currency. Cryptocurrencies provide months. J.P. Morgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie accept and hold payments. Just imagine if your ac-
Dimon called bitcoin a fraud—then backpedaled, sug- counts receivable decreased by 23% in just one day,
a financial vehicle that is free of single own- gesting that each cryptocurrency be looked at individ- as it would have when the market dipped December
ership/operation, and they ensure trust ually. Like others, he supports the blockchain tech- 21-22, 2017.
because all transactions are made in public. nology underlying Bitcoin. While the initial intent of
Bitcoin was to function as a digital currency, Bitcoin is Watchlist
Examples displaying behavior suggestive of a new speculative
asset class (such as Gold or Diamonds), which is not Bitcoin; Ripple; Ethereum; Litecoin; Dash; Monero;
Cryptocurrencies have exploded in popularity, no- Cardano; Coinbase; Estcoin; Coindesk; Counterpar-
valued based on its functional value.
toriety, value and volatility in the past year. There ty; Openledger; SEC; FED; Central Banks; e-Dinar,
is significant variation in features, benefits and eCFA.
What’s Next
structures across cryptocurrencies with some fo-
cusing on global transactions, faster transactions, In general, we expect to continue to see significant
transactional utility, anonymity, privacy, and compu- new cryptocurrency entrants, as well as fresh op-
tational functionality. portunity and continued high volatility as regulation
and markets adjust to find equilibrium. We believe
Bitcoin remains the most recognized, with the larg-
that traditional cryptocurrencies will bifurcate into
est market capitalization followed by Ethereum and
two primary uses that will dictate their future path
Ripple. Bitcoin was designed with the intention of
of evolution:
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Key Insight the transaction that keeps track of terms of agree- Going forward, the process in which companies set up
The blockchain is a distributed public ledger of ments and performs actions at specific moments their systems and infrastructure is likely to change with
transactions that is continuously growing. Cryp- without interaction from human intermediaries. the rise in popularity of blockchain technology. Indus-
tography is used so that after a transaction is (For example, paying royalty fees to musician when- tries and businesses have begun to think more about de-
recorded, it is visible to all and cannot be changed ever a song is played.) centralization, who ensures trust, and efficiencies from
without changing the entire ledger. Blockchain distributing responsibilities across a broader ecosys-
reduces the need for intermediaries as the ledger What’s Next tem of players. We expect blockchain to remain popular
is available to all. in the form of pilots and small-scale implementations as
Industries that rely heavily on record keeping, many large institutions and startups begin to explore
ownership and trust are going to be most impact- how to develop the technology and how to apply the ide-
Examples ed by the development of solutions that leverage ology to various use cases across multiple industries.
Variations of blockchain technology are most blockchain technology. Industries such as finan-
frequently being utilized to create record books cial services, insurance, healthcare, supply chain,
and government services are primary targets for Watchlist
that cannot be changed and are available for all
parties to see. Records of diamond sourcing and blockchain innovation. Many current solutions use CITI; ING; HSBC; Bank of America; UBS; JPMorgan Chase;
provenance are being written into blockchains like consensus verification methodology, and that con- Ethereum; IBM; Hyperledger; Steemit; Counterparty;
Everledger.io as a way of providing digital records sumes significant computer resources and electric- Quorum; Bitnation; Solidity; International Monetary Fund.
that ensure authenticity, ethical sourcing, and ity. Current verification, storage and cryptographic
quality. methods will need to evolve for blockchain solutions
to achieve the size, scale, and efficiency that is
Blockchain technology also allows for the coding of necessary to replace existing systems.
specific commands into the records. This leads to
smart contracts, where the code is embedded in
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By 2018, the European regulation known as Payment The most successful players will be those who can
Service Directive Two (PSD2 ) will require banks to get access to the richest data and are most ef-
enable third parties to access a customer’s financial fective at productizing data driven insights, likely
data. PSD2 lays the foundation for new players to through personalized marketing and operating effi-
use financial transaction data to improve analytics ciencies like reducing fraud and chargeback rates.
behind product development, predictive analytics,
fraud analysis, marketing and a la carte services
being offered by an ecosystem of providers.
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• environmental protections
27
16
19
14
29 11. Helsinki
04 08
20 17 12. Hong Kong
21 26
25
18
13. London
06
01 07
12 14. Luxembourg
15. Melbourne
22 16. Montreal
17. New York
18. Osaka
19. Paris
20. San Francisco
15
21. Seoul
22. Singapore
23. Stockholm
24. Tallinn
25. Tel Aviv
26. Tokyo
27. Toronto
28. Vancouver
29. Zurich
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In the future, architects may choose to build laterally, rather than vertical-
ly. Advancements in the technology that moves elevators now allow them
to move omnidirectionally. Given what we know to be true about extreme
weather and climate change, it’s plausible that economic centers will move
inland from the coasts, and that landscrapers will become more main-
stream over the next 20 years. Spanning massive areas the size of several
football fields, these new buildings would be able to withstand high winds
and temperature changes. They will create entirely new city footprints we
haven’t seen before in the U.S.
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Key Insight of this regulation has meant that the internet looks Watchlist
Twenty years ago, the internet emerged as a global and behaves differently depending on geography. European Union; Google; Facebook; Baidu; Twitter;
space where information wanted to be free. Now, Citizens in countries where free speech isn’t valued Amazon; Microsoft; Netflix; Apple; Federal Communi-
everyone has a different idea of how our global could find their version of the internet without a cations Commission.
information superhighway ought to be regulated, digital outlet for watchdog journalism.
and by whom. As a result, we are headed towards a
fragmented “splinternet” in the future. What’s Next
The companies involved have maintained that they’re
Examples “just technology companies,” however their strict-
Search is controlled by a small number of American ly-defined roles as arbiters of information will be
companies—there is no United Nations or other in- tested in courts in the coming years.
ternational organization with any power to establish Without coordinated effort, splinternets will con-
standards, norms and regulations that is recognized tinue to proliferate in the years ahead. This could
by everyone using the internet. In the past decade, make disseminating quality journalism more difficult
countries in Europe fought ISPs and search provid- in regions around the world. But it could also cause
ers such as Google and Yahoo in court and success- tremendous headaches for news organizations
fully banned content on a country by country basis. who distribute—and monetize—content for a global
In the summer of 2017, Germany passed a law forc- audience.
ing social media companies to delete hate speech
within 24 hours of posting, or pay fines of up to $57
million. Canada’s Supreme Court ordered Google to
remove pirated content from search results. French
lawmakers are working to make Europe’s “right to
be forgotten” laws applicable worldwide. The result
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It’s now clear that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. election.
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LONGER-TERM IMPACT
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Key Insight In the U.S., we have plenty of policy questions, but Watchlist
Technology is now moving faster than any govern- few answers. We only have the existing democratic Government agencies; business leaders; legal schol-
ment’s ability to legislate it. As a result, countries instruments of change: patents, regulation, legisla- ars; law enforcement; technology and privacy advo-
around the world are learning the hard way what tion, and lawsuits. And society is trusting our law- cates; media organizations; everyday citizens.
happens when old laws clash with new technology. makers, political appointees, and agency heads to
apply those instruments to technologies that could
literally change the future of humanity.
Examples
In the U.S., the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act What’s Next
(CFAA) was enacted shortly after lawmakers
showed a clip of the 1984 movie WarGames during In a democracy, new policies and laws require dis-
testimony—it was an iconic scene about the brink of cussion, debate and various parts of a government
nuclear war with Matthew Broderick, as a teenage to collaborate. It’s a slow process by design, but that
hacker. The CFAA’s broad language makes it illegal to doesn’t mean we should avoid any action until there’s
break a website’s terms of service (TOS). But these a real crisis. Without meaningful discussion about
days, most of us break the TOS of the websites and the long-range implications of legislation, lawmakers
services we use without even realizing it. Every time could cause drastic (if untended) consequences for
that coworker Facebooks an inspirational message their constituents in the decades to come.
she found online, she’s technically breaking the law.
The CFAA was used to threaten internet activist
Aaron Swartz with 35 years in prison and $1 million
in fines for allegedly stealing a trove of academic
papers with the intent of making them available
freely to the public—he later hanged himself.
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A #catsofjihad post.
Key Insight It has also routinely fooled social media platforms Watchlist
Russia dominated global headlines throughout 2017, into allowing its content to resurface, again and Government agencies; technology leaders; media
perhaps giving us the impression that ISIS had again. ISIS understands how to start and stoke a organizations; ISIS; legal scholars; law enforcement;
faded away quietly. The threat of a digital caliphate viral campaign, making it difficult to turn off the technology and privacy advocates.
still looms. fire hose. The reluctance of social media companies
to stop the spread of misinformation, fake news
and extremist messaging is well-documented. Less The reluctance of social media
Examples
A “caliphate” is a physical Islamic state led by a
obvious: their inability to track and thwart, in real
time, coded posts. On average, ISIS releases three
companies to stop the spread of
caliph, a political and religious leader who is deemed dozen new pieces of content every day—videos, misinformation, fake news and
the successor to the Islamic prophet Muhammad. photos, text posts, tweets, audio clips—in lots of dif-
In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ferent languages, making it more prolific than many extremist messaging is well-
news organizations.
announced the formation of a geographic caliphate,
with Abu Bakr al Baghdadi—the head of ISIS—as its
documented. Less obvious: their
caliph. However, much of ISIS’s most significant What’s Next inability to track and thwart, in
work happens in the digital realm. More concerning
than the extension of physical borders held by ISIS The rise of a digital caliphate poses an existential real time, coded posts.
is the digital spread of its ideas—borders are easy challenge for the world’s most important technolo-
to break. A digital caliphate is hard to stop. gy companies, all of whom operate out of countries
with democratic laws. To thwart the rise of a digital
ISIS has risen to prominence because the orga- caliphate would necessarily involve censoring con-
nization commands social media unlike any other. tent. On the other hand, democratic nations could
The Islamic State has developed a magnificently work together—there is a way to kill an idea, and
powerful brand—with recognizable characters, plot that’s by spreading one that’s more compelling.
lines and all the trappings of effective propaganda.
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Watchlist
Government agencies; technology company leaders;
legal scholars; law enforcement; technology and
privacy advocates; media organizations; everyday
citizens.
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Key Insight What’s Next Old software, machines and systems are expensive
Parts of the federal government rely on comically old In a perplexing about-face, President Trump ac- to maintain. Plus, there aren’t many technicians
technology, which is very difficult to maintain. Over- knowledged that government systems need to be who have enough institutional knowledge to make
hauling the infrastructure has bipartisan appeal. overhauled—but then didn’t name key advisors who the necessary fixes, which means re-hiring retired
would have the authority to make needed changes. employees at high contract wages. Legacy systems
The White House Office of Science and Technology are also vulnerable to attack.
Examples
Policy, which Congress authorized in 1976 to give
In 2017, President Donald Trump asked the CEOs of the president “independent, expert judgment and Watchlist
America’s largest tech companies—Apple, Amazon, assistance on policy matters which require accu-
IBM, Intel, Oracle, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Facebook, Federal Chief Information Officer; Office of Science
rate assessments of the complex scientific and and Technology Policy; Government Accountability
Google and others—to help overhaul the govern- technological features involved” now has no direc-
ment’s tech infrastructure. But the idea of overhaul- Office; Department of Defense; IRS; State Depart-
tor and maintains only a skeleton staff. ment; Department of Transportation; Department of
ing government IT didn’t start with the Trump White
House. President Barack Obama created the U.S. The problem isn’t just about legacy systems—it’s Justice; Department of Health and Human Services;
Digital Service to attract tech sector experts to fed- about keeping pace with the changing nature of the FCC; Department of Housing and Urban Develop-
eral jobs and to fix the broken system from within. technology. In 2016, the Government Accountability ment; Department of Energy; Department of Home-
Office (GAO) published the findings of a sobering land Security; Environmental Protection Agency;
technology audit. It found that the Department of Office of Management and Budget; elected officials
Defense is using a 53-year-old system and 8-inch and lawmakers.
floppy disks as part of its nuclear program, while
the State Department uses a 26-year-old system to
track visa information for 55,000 foreign nationals—
software that was decommissioned by the vendor
who built it.
The U.S. Joins Sweden, the UAE, Finland, Germany, Saudi Arabia in
creating a cabinet-level role for futures work
Years ago, the now-shuttered Office of Technology Assessment was charged with
researching, forecasting and advising Congress on matters of emerging technol-
ogy. During its existence, the OTA released more than 750 prescient studies rang-
ing from robots in the workplace, to bioterrorism, to acid rain and climate change.
The OTA was defunded by Congress in 1995, and it was a mistake. We are building
and deploying new technologies at an unprecedented rate. For the first time in our
country’s history, advancements in science and technology have outpaced our law-
makers’ ability to respond in a measured and responsible way.
During the 2018 election cycle, candidates will talk only about technology as it
relates to jobs, the economy and better access to government services. That ad-
dresses our current problems, not our future ones. We must be developing long-
term solutions for technological unemployment, climate change, growing wealth
disparities and the shifting nexus of geopolitical power.
A Department of the Future and a Secretary of the Future would advise our nation’s
top leaders and policymakers on the social, economic and geopolitical implications
of emerging science and technology—as those implications relate to all other de-
partments, agencies and offices within the government. The office would coordi-
nate research, lead scenario mapping and long-range planning. And it would ask
and answer difficult legal and policy questions about the future of biotechnology,
artificial intelligence, autonomous travel, digital divides, renewable energy, space
exploration and beyond.
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Photo courtesy: SpaceX
The Falcon 9 rocket prepares to land for the second time.
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Credit: Canadian Space Agency
CubeSats can be used alone or stacked to suit the needs of a
specific mission.
Key Insight a swath of land to see who’s started drilling and become a national security liability.
Entrepreneurs are building and preparing to launch whether they’ve struck oil. Satellites monitor traffic,
thousands of low-cost, high-value satellites in the next polar ice caps, and even us. Unlike a traditional, large Watchlist
three years. These satellites are small, capable of satellite, when one CubeSats goes offline or gets Space Systems Loral; MDA; Planet; Planetary Resourc-
communicating with each other, and will photograph damaged, the rest of the fleet still works. es; Airbus D&S; DigitalGlobe; National Geospatial Intel-
every inch of Earth’s surface every day of the year.
Near-real time images, coupled with machine learn- ligence Agency; 3 Gimbals; Space Exploration Technol-
ing and analysis tools, is big business. Governments, ogies Corp; Orbital Insight; Google; SpaceKnow; Capella
Examples big agricultural corporations, intelligence agencies, Space Inc; OneWeb; SpacePharma; Santa Clara Univer-
Miniature satellites, otherwise known as CubeSats, shipping companies and logistics firms all want sity; Technische Universitat Berlin; Tokyo Institute of
aren’t new technology. They’ve actually been in use access, so they’re willing to pay tens of millions of Technology; University of Tokyo; California Polytechnic
by space agencies for years. What’s changing is dollars a year for access. The combined valuation University; Cornell University; Boeing; Delft University
the launch technology that lifts CubeSats into orbit. of companies such as Planet, Airbus D&S, MDA and of Technology; NASA Ames Research Center; Transce-
Heavy investment into propulsion systems—not to DigitalGlobe is well into the tens of billions. lestial; NSLComm; Earthcube; Aerial & Maritime; Fleet
mention significant advancements in technology Space; Astrocast; Kepler Communications; GeoOptics;
and cheaper components—are making it easier to What’s Next Hera Systems; Sky and Space Global; Astro Digital;
mass-produce tiny satellites in a factory and launch The Federal Aviation Administration is projecting Kanagawa University; The Aerospace Corporation;
them for a variety of purposes. Fleets of CubeSats “an unprecedented number” of satellite launch- Los Alamos National Labratory; NRL Naval Center for
now take photos of farmland and beam them back es between 2018-2020. This will allow journalists, Space; Space and Missile Defense Command; Satellog-
down to earth to help farmers assess their crops. companies, governments and private citizens to ic; Spire; US Air Force; Lawrence Livermore National
Image analysis software can tell big box retailers, gain access to the images and tools for all sorts Labratory; MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace Donganghong; Na-
such as Walmart, how many cars are parked in their of purposes. CubeSats and image analysis will help tional University of Defense Technology (China); Shang-
lots and look for trends over time. They can then do us better understand the pulse of our cities, gain a hai Engineering Center for Microsatellites (China); SRI
the same with a competitor’s parking lots to gather deeper view into weather events and dive into crimi- International; Naval Postgraduate School.
strategic intelligence. Mining companies can survey nal activity. But that goes both ways. CubeSats could
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Photo courtesy: OSIRIS-REx Mission
OSIRIS-REx is already en route to the Bennu asteroid.
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Photo courtesy: NASA
NASA engineers load a structural test version of the Orion Stage
Adapter for NASA’s Space Launch System onto NASA’s Super
Guppy Aircraft at the Redstone Arsenal Airfield in Huntsville,
Alabama, for delivery to Lockheed Martin in Denver.
Key Insight cial facilities for the International Space Station humans headed back to the Moon and global discus-
We’re in the middle of a space exploration boom. (ISS). NASA is hoping that the ISS will help sup- sions about whether or not we should make Mars
Last year, retired U.S. military officers confirmed port and grow commercial space activities in the a protected habitat, free of government fighting.
that the government is seeking out and tracking near-future as it focuses more of its attention on China and India will become major players. Soon,
alien life. Startups are working on plans to colonize exploring Mars.
NASA is also readying the Space there will be a boom in launch vehicles, landers,
Mars, and they have serious investors. And it looks Launch System in preparation for deep space probes, rovers, space stations and research craft.
like humans might be headed back to the moon. exploration. The James Webb Space Telescope, We’ll also see partnerships formed for asteroid and
a massive observatory the size of a tennis court, moon mining and for space manufacturing. There
Examples is nearing completion. Some of the most exciting will be ancillary opportunities across industries,
space innovation is centered deep inside the Mojave from durable clothing retailers to skilled manufac-
Pittsburgh-based Astrobotic is developing a lu- Desert, where 17 space-related companies are turing operations. Private equity firms should start
nar lander for commercial use. Anyone wanting to closing in on commercial space travel, exploration looking at the soon-to-launch companies that will
make a lunar delivery just needs to pay $1.2 million and development. ultimately supply the tools, materials and technolo-
per kilogram of payload. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, gies for commercial space operations.
Japanese startup iSpace, and Florida-based Moon What’s Next
Express are all commercial-sector startups plan- Watchlist
ning to fly to the moon and back before 2021. Some We saw successful (and tragically, some unsuc-
of the companies view the moon as “Earth’s eighth cessful) commercial space launches in the past NASA; Amazon; European Space Agency; Indian
continent” that could be settled and mined for nat- three years. In January 2018 Elon Musk’s SpaceX Space Research Organization; China National Space
ural resources. Space agencies from India, China, celebrated the Falcon Heavy launch as the world Administration; DARPA; Scaled Composites and Vir-
Japan, the U.S., and also Russia, in a partnership watched a Tesla Roadster, and the “Spaceman,” gin Galactic (The Spaceship Company); XCOR Aero-
with the European Space Agency, also have plans to achieve orbit. space; SpaceX; Interorbital Systems; Stratolaunch;
land on the moon in 2019 and 2020. Space agencies in Europe, China and the U.S. are Masten Space Systems; Lockheed Martin; Northrop
hoping to either land on or get close enough to an Grumman; Boeing; Copenhagen Suborbitals; Orbital
Bigelow Aerospace and Axiom Space have both an- Sciences Corporation; Planetary Resources; Sam-
nounced that by 2020, they will have built commer- asteroid to mine it or change its path. Expect to see
sung; Facebook; Alphabet and many more.
© 2018 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 231
TEN WEAK
SIGNALS FOR
2019
WEAK SIGNALS
ON THE HORIZON
At the Future Today Institute, our goal in the first step of fore-
casting is to identify weak signals. Because we know that technol-
ogy is deeply intertwined with a number of other areas of modern
change—the economy, education, government, media, and more—
we cannot think about the future of a technology without simulta-
neously considering movement across all these other areas.
Here are some of the weak signals we’re already listening to for
2019:
Kristofer Perez
Kristofer (Kriffy) Perez is a management consultant with a decade of experience in financial ser-
vices across Europe and the Americas. He specializes in strategic foresight, customer-facing
innovation and product strategy. Based in New York City with over 15 patents filed, he is a global
entrepreneur who seeks to define how technology impacts society. He graduated from Lehigh Uni-
versity with degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Business and is a May 2018 MBA candidate at
New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
• Washington Post Bestseller “A rare treasure: a “[The Signals Are “A logical way to sift
• 2017 Thinkers50 Radar substantive guide written in Talking] provides several through today’s onslaught
Award Winner a narrative that’s a delight brain-bending future of events and information
to read.” possibilities...Webb’s stellar to spot coming changes in
• Winner, 2017 Gold Axiom reputation in this red- your corner of the world.”
—Christopher Graves,
Award hot field should generate
Global Chair, Ogilvy Public —KIRKUS
• Fast Company’s Best Books Relations demand.”
of 2016 —Booklist
• Amazon’s Best Books of 2016
Agencies AeroVironment
Aethon Inc.
ARP
Arria NLG
Bayer AG
BBDO
Aruba
Mentioned AGCO
Agria Corporation Asahi Shimbun Company
BBH
BBVA
AstraZeneca
In Our 2018 Airbnb
Airbus D&S Astro Digital
Beam
Bernard Matthews Farms
Alcon Astrobotic Bertelsmann
Trends AlgorithmWatch.org Astrocast Bing*
Alibaba AT&T Bioinspired Intelligent Mechatronics
Report. Alico Incorporated Atlantica Yield PLC Lab at Ritsumeikan University
All Nippon Airlines* Atmel Bitdefender
Alliance For American Manufacturing ATR Intelligent Robotics and Bitnation
Communication Laboratories Bitter Southerner
Allscripts
Audioburst Blink CarCharging
Alltech
Auphonic BLIP Systems
Alphabet
Aurora Labs Blis
altMBA
Brown Institute at Columbia University Circos VR Daegu Gyeongbuk Insistute of Science eCFA
& Technology eClinicalWorks
Buddy Cisco*
Dana-Farber Cancer Institute Eddystone
California Polytechnic University Citibank*
DARPA Eifer Elektro Firma
Caliper Claas
DataONE Electronic Arts
CalSTRS Clara Foods
Deep VR Electronic Frontier Foundation
Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project Clear
Del Monte Emerson Electric
Cambridge Analytica Cluster
Delft University of Technology Energid Technologies
Camera Culture Research Group COEX
at the MIT Media Lab Denso Energous Corp
Cognitive Horizons Network
Canadian Solar Inc Department of Computing Science, ENOVA
Coinbase University of Aberdeen
Capella Space Inc Coindesk Environmental Justice Foundation
Department of Transportation
Capital One College of Charleston Envision Solar
Design Lab
Cardano Columbia University’s Earth Institute EPFL
Detroit Dirt
Cargill Comcast NBC Universal Epic Games
Dexcom
Carnegie Mellon University Conoco Phillips EPSON Robotics
Didi Chuxing
Carrefour Consumer Physics Ericsson
DigitalGlobe
Case Western Reserve University Copenhagen Suborbitals ESA Data Registry
Discovery Communications
CBS Television Coral Project ESPN
Disney
CCP Games Cornell University Estcoin
DJI
Center for Internet and Technology Counterparty Estimote
Addiction DNV GL
Coursea Ethereal Machines
Dong Energy
and FaceTec Georgia Institute of Technology Hiangsu Akcome Science & Technology
Co.
Falabella Gimbal
HireVue
Government FAMA Glimworm Beacon
Hitachi
FANUC Robotics Global Cyber Alliance
Holvi
Agencies FarmLink
Festo
Global Pvq SE
GoBank
Home Depot
Honda
Mentioned FFRRobotics
FICO
Goodby Silverstein & Partners
Google
Honeywell
HP
In Our 2018 Fidor
Finless Foods
Google Play
Government of Luxembourg
HQSoftware
HSBC
First Solar Inc Grand View Research
Trends Fleet Space Graphenano
HTC
Huawei
Fluidinfo Grove Labs
Report. Formlabs Grupo Globo
Hubert Burda Media
Hulu
Founders Fund GSD&M
HumanAPI
Freescale Semiconductor GSK
Hyperledger
Frist Wind Solar Hadoop
Hyve
Fujitsu Hampton Creek
IBM
Funding Circle Hanergy Thin Film Power Group Ltd
IBM Research*
Future Meat Harmonix
IBM Watson*