Indonesias economic outlook 2011: shifting into higher gear

Faisal Basri
23 November 2010

Bagian I Perekonomian Dunia

The world economic outlook, 2009-2011

Description
World GDP growth, % -United States -Euro Area -Japan -Developing economies -China -India -Asean-5 World trade growth, %
* Projection Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2010..

2009
-0.6 -2.6 -4.1 -5.2 2.5 9.1 5.7 1.7 -11.0

2010*
4.8 2.6 1.7 2.8 7.1 10.5 9.7 6.6 11.4

2011*
4.2 2.3 1.5 0.6 6.4 9.6 8.4 5.4 7.0

Leading economic indocators kian membaik

Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound

The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10%.
Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009.

Hong Kong joins Asias rapid climb out of recession. Hong Kongs economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in much of Asia, according to data published Friday. China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds during the April-to-June period.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.

Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) December 2010
6:05 p.m EDT

US$81.86 =

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.

Oil prices and stock market

= 11,203.55

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex)

= $1,353.6

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

Indeks US$ dan mata uang Asia

Source: Bank Danamon.

Crisis in Europe: now govts r the problems

Maastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP; Debt/GDP ratio < 60% Indonesia (the average of the last four years): Budget deficit =1.25%; Debt/GDP ratio =31.6%

Indonesia: government debt

100 75 50 25 0 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Foreign Debt
Source: Nota Keuangan 2009.

Domestic Debt

Global risks
Rigiditas politik dan resistensi public sebabkan proses penyesuaian di negaranegara maju berlangsung cukup lama. Kekalahan Partai Demokrat dalam pemilu sela di AS. Global imbalances yang bisa memicu currency wars dan gelombang proteksionisme.

Bagian II Perekonomian Indonesia

Economic temperature higher

Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % Target BI: 5% + 1%
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2002 2003 0
18.4

14.6

6.4 6.2 5.8 5.7 4.6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: BPS.

Inflation remains high in the region

percent

Source: Asian Development Bank, September 2010.

BI Rate 16 bulan berturut2 bertahan di 6.5%

(BI Rate, percent)
13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0

Source: Bank Indonesia.

12,500 9,500 9,000 8,500

8-Apr 6-Aug 23-Nov 3-Mar 15-Jun 22-Sep 4-Jan 18-Apr 26-Jul 10-Nov 21-Feb 5-Jun 11-Sep 3-Jan 17-Apr 25-Jul 10-Nov Feb-24 Jun-08 16-Sep 4-Jan 14-Apr 22-Jul 2-Nov

12,000

11,500

11,000

10,500

10,000

Source: Bank Indonesia

Heart beat has been appreciating ...

(Rupiah per US$)

Currency performance (y-t-d)

Thai Baht (THB) Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) Singapore Dollar (SGD) Phillipine Peso (PHP) Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Indian Rupee (INR) Taiwanese Dollar (TWD) South Korean Won (KRW) Chinese Renmimbi (CNY) Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) 0
Sources: Bloomberg (October 27, 2110).

10

12

100000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00

70000.00

80000.00

90000.00

Source: Bank Indonesia.

W

Foreign reserves increased very sharply

(US$ million)

1Ja 2F W e 3Ma W 4A W p 1Jn W 2W Jl 3W Ag 4S W ep 1N W ov 2D W ec 3J W an 4Fe b W 1A W pr 2M W ay 3Ju W n 4W Ju l 1S W ep 2Oc W 3- t No W 4- v D W ec 2A 31 p r -A u 31 g -J a 29 n -J 31 u n -A ug 5Oc t 15 -N ov 19 -D e 31 c -J a 6- n Ma 15 r -A 23 p r -M a 30 y -J un 7Au 15 g -S e 24 p -O F e ct b27 Ju l- 3 30 1 -D 31 ec -M a 29 y -O ct

Balance of payments (US$ million)

2008
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) 1. Exports, f.o .b. 2. Imports, f.o.b. B. Services, net C. Income, net D. Current Transfers, net II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. Capital Account B. Financial Account 1. Direct investment 2. Portfolio investment 3. Other investment III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS
Source: Bank Indonesia.

2009
10,743 35,133 119,480 -84,347 -14,110 -15,140 4,861 3,548 96 3,453 1,928 10,336 -8,812 -1,785 -12,506

Q4-09
3,602 11,395 35,899 -24,504 -4,546 -4,551 1,303 1,270 14 1,255 604 3,521 -2,869 -918 -3,954

Q1-10
2,007 8,770 34,993 -26,222 -3,592 -4,339 1,168 4,829 18 4,811 2,300 6,159 -3,648 -215 -6,621

Q2-10
1,804 8,643 37,264 -28,621 -3,417 -4,628 1,206 4,370 0 4,370 1,977 1,089 1,304 -753 -5,421

Q3-10 Q1-Q3
1,308 9,120 39,228 -30,108 -3,890 -5,152 1,230 6,477 0 6,477 2,492 6,060 -2,075 -830 -6,955 5,119 26,534 111,485 -84,951 -10,899 -14,119 3,604 15,676 18 15,658 6,769 13,308 -4,419 -1,798 -18,997

126 22,916 139, 606 -116,690 -12,998 -15,155 5,364 -1,832 294 -2,126 3,419 1,764 -7,309 -238 1,945

Foreign merchandise trade

Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m)

Description
Total export Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Total import Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Surplus (Deficit) Non-oil and gas Oil and gas
* January-September. Source: BPS.

Billion US$
2007 114.1 92.0 22.1 74.5 52.5 21.9 39.6 39.5 0.2 2008 137.0 107.9 29.1 129.2 98.6 30.6 7.8 9.3 (1.5) 2009 2010* 103.1 86.6 16.5 96.8 77.9 19.0 6.3 8.7 (2.5) 110.8 91.8 19.0 97.3 77.8 19.4 13.5 14.0 (0.4)

Growth (yoy)
2007 2008 13.1 15.5 4.1 21.9 24.8 15.5 20.0 17.3 31.7 41.1 42.4 38.0 2009 -15.0 -9.7 -34.7 -25.0 -21.1 -37.8 2010* 38.3 34.9 57.3 42.4 41.1 48.0

Foreign merchandise trade: monthly

Composition of imports (%, Jan-Sep 2010)

7.4

19.8

Bahan baku Barang modal Barang konsumsi

72.8

Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals

Visitors: 2008 = 6,234,497 2009 = 6,323,730 2010 (Jan-Sep) = 5,185,917 Growth: Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63% Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43% Jan-Sep 2010 (y-o-y) = 12.26%
2009 2010

700000 650000 600000 550000 500000 450000 400000

2008

Sources: BPS

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIs

Structure of maturity

Source: World Bank, September 2010

JSX index recovered significantly

Per 30 Oktober (y-t-d) tertinggi di dunia (dalam US$), dengan kenaikan sebesar 50.2%
Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18.
3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 22-Oct 11-Oct 18-Jul 21-Apr 7-Apr 24-Jan 11-Jan

(Jakarta composite index)

Dec-09

11-Dec

Sep-02

1-Dec

5-Jul

8-Sep

29-Sep

14-Sep

27-Mar

18-Mar

20-Aug

Mar-11

22-Jun

13-Jun

Jun-08

2-Mar

2-Jan

27-May

19-Nov

Net foreign flows in the equity market

Foreign ownership of bonds and stocks

(Bonds: in percent of bonds outstanding; equities: in percent of market capitalization)

World Bank, October 2010.

102

108

114

120

72

78

84

90

96

Source: Danareksa Research Institute.

LEI (LHS)

Periode ekspansi baru dimulai

CEI (RHS)

Jan -9 0 O c t-9 0 Ju l-9 1 A p r -9 2 Jan -9 3 O c t-9 3 Ju l-9 4 A p r -9 5 Jan -9 6 O c t-9 6 Ju l-9 7 A p r -9 8 Jan -9 9 O c t-9 9 Ju l-0 0 A p r -0 1 Jan -0 2 O c t-0 2 Ju l-0 3 A p r -0 4 Jan -0 5 O c t-0 5 Ju l-0 6 A p r -0 7 Jan -0 8 O c t-0 8 Ju l-0 9 A p r -1 0 83 87 90 94 97 101 104 108 111

Indonesias post-crisis journey

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
5.4 5.7 6.2 5.8
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 -20

Gus Dur: Erratic/shaky Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration Crisis peak SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction
Source: BPS.

7.2

GDP growth of selected Asian countries

Source: Asian Development Bank, September 2010

Low quality Sectoral growth rate

(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)
2008
Tradable Agriculture Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Non-Tradable Electricity, Gas & Water Construction Trade, Hotel & Rest. Transport & Comm. Finance Services GDP
Source: BPS.

2009
2.2 4.1 4.4 2.1 7.1 13.8 7.1 1.1 15.5 5.0 6.4 4.5

Q4-09
4.5 4.6 5.2 4.2 6.4 14.0 8.0 4.2 12.2 3.8 5.7 5.4

Q1-10
3.4 3.0 3.1 3.7 8.3 8.2 7.1 9.4 11.9 5.3 4.6 5.7

Q2-10
3.8 3.1 3.8 4.3 8.8 4.8 7.2 9.6 12.9 6.1 5.3 6.2

Q-3-10
2.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 8.1 3.2 6.4 8.8 13.3 6.3 6.4 5.8

3.4 4.8 0.5 3.7 8.7 10.9 7.3 7.2 16.7 8.2 6.4 6.1

Low quality growth, 2000-2009* (%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 10.1 10.2 10.3
Source: BPS.

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas)

US$ million

2008
Exports Imports Trade Balance % of Total Exports Imports Rank Exports Imports
*January-September. Sources: BPS

2009
8,906 13,497 -4,591 9.1 17.3 3 1

2010*
9,306 14,212 -4,906 10.1 18.3 3 1

7,787 14,948 -7,161 7.2 15.2 4 1

Ease of doing business

Country
Singapore Thailand Malaysia Vietnam China Pakistan Bangladesh Brunei Darussalam Indonesia India Philippines
Source: IFC and World Bank, October 2010.

DB 2011
1 19 21 78 79 83 107 112 121 134 148

DB 2010
1 16 23 88 78 75 111 117 115 135 146

Bagian III Peluang dan Tantangan Pemerintahan Baru

Red shirts make bloody protest

MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3461303/Thaiprotesters-pour-blood

Protestors burn churches in Malaysia

January 2010

In God's name?
A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayst ory.cfm?story_id=15271154

Peluang jangan disia-siakan

Sebagai incumbent, SBY tak membutuhkan proses transisi yang panjang. Masa jabatan ke-2 bagi SBY: tak punya beban berat. Pilpres 1 putaran (60.8%): persiapan lebih panjang menyusun program dan kabinet. Modal dasar cukup kuat: PD pemenang pemilu dengan 20.8%. Koalisi 6 partai dengan 434 kursi DPR (76%) Semua faktor di atas sejatinya bisa menjadi basis legitimasi yang cukup kokoh (modal potensial)

Tapi, harus disertai dengan:

Kepemimpinan yang kuat (strong leadership). Manajemen pemerintahan yang mumpuni. Manajemen kebijakan yang efektif. Terus menjaga dan mengelola dukungan politik. Mengelola ekspektasi dan dukungan publik.

Faktor-faktor pengerem
Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014. Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN. Kekompakan kabinet terganggu. Kompromi-kompromi politik Agenda populisme mengedepan. Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan drastik.

Bagian IV Prospek 2010-14

The world economic outlook, 2009-2011

Description
World GDP growth, % -United States -Euro Area -Japan -Developing economies -China -India -Asean-5 World trade growth, %
* Projection Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2010..

2009
-0.6 -2.6 -4.1 -5.2 2.5 9.1 5.7 1.7 -11.0

2010*
4.8 2.6 1.7 2.8 7.1 10.5 9.7 6.6 11.4

2011*
4.2 2.3 1.5 0.6 6.4 9.6 8.4 5.4 7.0

Indonesia upgraded!!!
Despite the weakness of the global economy, the Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from 0.5% previously. (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the
Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.)

IMF (June 5, 2009): Looking forward, we have raised our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4 percent (from 2.5%) with inflation expected to decline to 2.5 about 5 percent by the end of the year. .
Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm

EIUs prediction on Indonesian economy

GDP growth, percent
6
4.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.2 5.5

4
3.2 3.1

3.4

2
0.6 0.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

-2

-1.3

-1.4

Apr. 08

Apr. 30

May. 28

Jun. 25

Aug. 06

Aug. 27

Sep. 24

30-Jan

2009
Source: The Economist, various issues.

2010

Projections of GDP by several agencies

No Agency 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Govt of Indonesia IMF World Bank ADB Economist Bank Danamon Danareksa (DRI) Date August 2009 October 2010 September 2010 September 2010 September 2010 November 2010 September 2010 2010 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.2 2011 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.4

Projections of GDP by expenditure

Description Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods & services Minus: Imports of goods & services Gross Domestic Product
* Actual ** Projection Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.

2008* 2009* 2010** 2011** 5,3 10.4 11.7 9.5 4.9 15.7 3.3 -9.7 5.2 5.4 9.6 15.0 16.2 6.5 5.3 7.0 9.4 9.3 9.9 6.9

10.0 -15.0 6.1 4.5

Projections of GDP by sector

Sector *
1. Agriculture 2. Mining 3. Manufacturing 4. Utilities 5. Construction 6. Trade and hospitality 7. Transport & communications 8. Finance 9. Services GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
*Projection Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.

2008
4.8 0.5 3.7 10.9 7.3 7.2 16.7 8.2 6.4 6.1

2009
4.1 4.4 2.1 13,8 7.1 1.1 15.5 5.0 6.4 4.5

2010*
3.6 3.0 4.5 11.2 7.5 8.0 16.5 6.9 6.5 6.5

2011
3.8 2.3 4.9 11.5 7.5 7.1 15.6 7.5 6.6 6.9

Bagian V Shifting into Higher Gear

Pertama Benahi Jantung Perekonomian

Anomali .

Level of credits to GDP, 2009

Perbandingan sektor keuangan di Asia-pasifik

Belanja pemerintah masih seret

Rp Trn
250 Rekening Pem erintah di BI Inter Bank Rate 200 BI Rate 10 150 12

percent
14

100

4 50 2

0 2004

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk, Sukri) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas.
Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.

GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %)

Description
Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment Exports Minus Imports GDP
* January-September (Q1-Q3). Source: BPS..

2007 2008 2009 2010*

5,0 3,9 9,4 8,5 9,0 6,3 5,3 10,4 11,7 9,5 10,0 6.1 4.9 15.7 3.3 -9.7 -15.0 4.5 4.7 -4.6 8.2 15.0 17.0 5.9

Akumulasi Iuran Jamkes

Cuma Sektor Formal Asumsi 32 jt Naker, rata-rata gaji Rp 1,5 jt/bln, iuran 5%, pertumbuhan gaji 10%, Naker 6% Rp milyar/th 28.800 33.581 39.155 45.655 53.234 62.070 72.374 84.388 98.397 114.731 Akumulasi. Rp Milyar 28.800 62.381 101.536 147.191 200.425 262.495 334.869 419.257 517.654 632.385 Akumulasi Iuran: Memastikan ketersediaan dana Kepastian investor faskes, alkes dan medical supplies Memastikan pasien

Th 1 Th 2 Th 3 Th 4 Th 5 Th 6 Th 7 Th 8 Th 9 Th 10

Dampak Ekonomi Asumsi Iuran HANYA 6%

2. Jaminan Hari Tua/Pens iun. Sumber dana Investa si Jangka Panjang Luar Biasa Besar.

Tahun Th 1 Th 2 Th 3 Th 4 Th 5 Th 6 Th 7 Th 8 Th 9 Th 10

Iuran/Th, Rp M 34.560 40.297 46.986 54.786 63.880 74.485 86.849 101.266 118.076 137.677

Akumulasi, Rp M 34.560 74.857 121.843 176.629 240.509 314.994 401.843 503.109 621.185 758.862

Kedua Lapisan Menengah Membesar

Indonesia: selected economic indicators

2007
GDP gowth (y-o-y, %) Nominal GDP (current prices (Rp trillions) GDP per capita (current prices, US$) Population (mill) Open unemployment rate (%) Inflation rate (%, year end) BI rate (%, year end) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Currrency (Rp/US$, average) Current account balance (% of GDP) Reserves (US$ billions) S&P's Rating 6.3 3,951 1,938 225.6 9.8 6.6 8.00 -1.3 35.2 9,163 2.4 56.9 BB-

2008
6.0 4,951 2,270 228.5 8.6 11.2 9.25 -0.1 33.0

2009
4.5 5,613 2,590 231.4 7.9 2.8 6.50 -1.6 29.5

2010*
6.5 6,342 2,962 234.4 7.6 5.9 6.50 -1.0 28.3 9,085 1.2 90.0 BB

2011*
6.9 7,294 3,440 237.3 7.0 5.6 7.00 -1.2 26.4 8,900 1.0 100.0 BB+

9,756 10,356 0.1 52.1 BB1.9 66.1 BB-

Real consumption growth, 2001-09

annual average growth by ventiles ordered lowest consuming household to highest

Source: World Bank, September 2010, based on Susenas 2001-2009

Private consumption in Susenas and GDP

Susenas tends to Year Susenas(A) GDP (B) A/B undercount 1969/70 1,949 2,428 0.80 expenditures by high 1976 7,223 10,500 0.69 income households. 1978 9,488 15,126 0.63 The non-food items 1980 14,814 25,595 0.58 listed in the survey do 1984 30,674 54,066 0.57 not capture a 1987 44,617 71,788 0.62 significant proportion 1990 64,721 106,312 0.61 of spending by the 1993 98,015 175,078 0.56 rich (for example, 1996 165,810 332,094 0.50 automobiles, 1999 337,778 813,183 0.42 international travel, 2002 525,683 1,231,965 0.43 overseas education 2005 754,278 1,785,596 0.42 and health care). 2008 1,066,381 3,019,459 0.35 Source: Harvard Kennedy School, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, January 2010.

Perkembangan credit rating Indonesia

Rating Tahun 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 : 1998 S&P BB BBBBBBB+ B+ B+ B : BBBFitch BB+ BB BB BBBBBBB+ B+ : BBBMoody's Ba2 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 B2 B2 B3 : BBBCRC 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 : n/a

Indonesia: expenditure groups

1999
The Indonesian Middle Class (Millions)
Affluent(>=20)
0.01 0.09

2009
The Indonesian Middle Class (Millions)
Affluent(>=20)
0.05 0.32

Upper Middle(10 to 20)

0.04

0.36

Upper Middle(10 to 20)

0.23

2.0

Mid Middle(4 to 10)

1.14

6.36

Mid Middle(4 to 10)

3.98

18.3

Lower Middle(2 to 4)

13.1

24.4

Lower Middle(2 to 4)

25.5

43.3

Poor(<=2)

120.6

49.8

Poor(<=2)

89.1

47.1

130

100

50 Rural

0 Urban

50 70

100

50 Rural

50 Urban

100

Source: ADB based on BPS.

Ketiga Perkokoh Daya Saing

The World competitiveness scoreboard

Country
USA Singapore Hong Kong Switzerland Australia China Taiwan Malaysia India Korea Thailand Philippines Indonesia Venezuela

2003
1 4 10 9 7 27 17 21 42 32 28 41 49 51

2004
1 2 6 14 4 22 12 16 30 31 26 43 49 51

2005
1 3 2 8 9 29 11 26 33 27 25 40 50 51

2006
1 3 2 8 6 18 17 22 27 32 29 42 52 53

2007
1 2 3 6 12 15 18 23 27 29 33 45 54 55

2008
1 2 3 4 7 17 13 19 29 31 27 40 51 55

2009
1 3 2 4 7 20 23 18 30 27 26 43 42 57

2010
3 1 2 4 5 18 8 10 31 23 26 39 35 58

Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2010.

Global competitiveness index ranking

Country
USA Singapore Hong Kong Switzerland Australia China Taiwan Malaysia India Korea Thailand Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Venezuela

2007-08
1 7 12 2 19 34 14 21 48 11 28 71 54 68 98

2008-09
1 5 11 2 18 30 17 21 50 13 34 71 55 70 105

2009-10
2 3 11 1 15 29 12 24 49 19 36 87 54 75 113

2010-11
4 3 11 1 16 27 13 26 51 22 38 85 44 59 122

Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, various issues.

Pillars of competitiveness

Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, September 2010.

Keempat Galakkan Kembali Industrialisasi

Industri manufaktur merana

Sumber: diolah dari data BPS.

Gejala deindustrialisasi dini

Industri manufaktur Industri manufaktur nonmigas

Source: calculated from BPS.

Gejala dini deindustrialisasi

Net entry negatif untuk indusri manufaktur menengah dan besar. Alokasi kredit perbankan ke sektor industri manufaktur merosot tajam Daya saing industri manufaktur melemah Konsumsi listrik ke industri negatif Indonesia tersisih dari regional production networks

Pertumbuhan dan pangsa kredit

Penyaluran kredit perbankan ke sektor industri secara nominal tetap tumbuh namun persentasenya makin rendah. Pada 1985, hampir 40% kredit perbankan disalurkan ke sektor industri pengolahan. Pada 2008, industri manufaktur hanya memperoleh 16% kredit perbankan. Perbankan lebih tertarik pembiayaan konsumsi pembangunan properti. pada dan

Penurunan volume kredit perbankan berarti kelangkaan pembiyaan investasi dan modal kerja bagi sektor industri.

Konsumsi listrik untuk industri turun

Pertumbuhan penjualan listrik 2008 dan semester I 2009

Structure of manufacturing industry, %

Sub-sector
Food, beverages and tobacco Textiles, leather and footwear Wood and forestry products Paper and printing Fertilizers, chemicals and ruber products Cement and non-metal quarrying Basic metals and steel Vehicles, machinery and equipments
Source: BPS.

2001
24.7 12.4 8.8 6.6 14.5 5.0 7.1 20.9

2008
27.2 12.4 4.8 6.6 19.4 5.5 5.9 18.1

Growth of manufacturing industries

% change, year-on-year, 2010

Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10

Food, beverages and tobacco Textiles, leather and footwear Wood and forestry products Paper and printing Fertilizers, chemicals and ruber products Cement and non-metal quarrying Basic metals and steel Vehicles, machinery and equipments NON-OIL AND GAS MFG INDUSTRIES TOTAL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Source: BPS.

0.8 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 3.9 7.5 -0.2 10.4 4.1 3.7

1.9 -0.1 -3.2 -0.4 3.1 2.6 -0.0 12.3 4.9 4.4

4.2 0.0 -3.2 2.1 4.8 -1.0 -0.4 8.5 4.7 4.1

Growth of manufacturing industries

Medium and large industries, y-o-y, %.
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10

trendline

Source: BPS.

Growth of manufacturing industries

Medium and large industries, q-to-q.
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10

trendline

-1 -2 -3 -4
Source: BPS.

12-Top exporters
Merchandise exports, 2009, US$ billion
300 600 900 1200

China (9.6) Germany (9.0) United States (8.5) Japan (4.7) Netherlands (4.0) France (3.8) Italy (3.2) Belgium (3.0) Korea (2.9) United Kingdom (2.8) Hongkong (2.6) Canada (2.5)
Source : WTO.

( ) World share, %

Middle-leading exporters
Merchandise exports, 2009, US$ billion
0
Russian Federation (2.4) Singapore (2.2) Mexico (1.8) Spain (1.7) Taiwan (1.6) Saudi Arabia (1.5) UAE (1.4) Switzerland (1.4) Malaysia (1.3) India (1.2) Australia (1.2) Brazil (1.2) Thailand (1.2) Austria (1.1) Poland (1.1) Sweden (1.0) Norway (1.0) Indonesia (1.0)
Source : WTO.

100

200

300

400

Indonesia menduduki urutan ke-30. Namun, jika di luar perdagangan intra-EU(27), posisi Indonesia naik ke urutan 21.

Leading exporter/importers of nat. resources

Excluding intra-EU trade, 2008, US$ billion, ( ) World share, %
50
Russia (10.5) Saudi Arabia (8.7) Canada (5.5) EU (27) (5.4) United States (4.4) Norway (4.0) Australia (3.5) UAE (3.4) Iran (2.9) Kuwait (2.6) Venezuela (2.5) Algeria (2.4) Nigeria (2.3) Singapore (2.1) Angola (2.1)
Source : WTO.

100

150

200

250

300

350
EU (27) (22.9) United States (17.4) Japan (10.5) China (9.9) Korea (5.4) India (4.0) Singapore (2.8) Taiwan (2.5) Canada (2.0) Turkey (1.5) Thailand (1.5) Brazil (1.3) Mexico (1.2) Indonesia (1.1) Australia (1.0)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Leading exporters

Leading importers

Kelima Integrasikan Perekonomian Domestik

Keunikan Indonesia

Negara kepulauan

Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan

VISI: VISI: Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan
M 1. I S 2. I 3.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan; Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja; Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.

Melalui pencapaian 5 (lima) sasaran strategis: Melalui pencapaian 5 (lima) sasaran strategis: Struktur ekonomi yang kokoh, mandiri dan berdaya saing Sumber daya manusia produktif Sumber pembiayaan pembangunan mencukupi dan efisien Fokuspada areakebijakan: pada kebijakan: Fokus pada 77area kebijakan: Infrastruktur Kualitas sumber Teknologi
Peningkatan dan efisiensi alokasi anggaran negara untuk penelitian; Insentif kegiatan R&D oleh swasta;

Pemanfaatan SDA secara optimal dan lestari

Birokrasi yang kompeten, efektif dan bersih

daya manusia Penyediaan infrastruktur (fisik Implementasi sistem pendanaan kesehatan dan non fisik) yang berkelanjutan dan handal; Skema pendanaan terencana; Pembangunan Kebijakan harga pendidikan mengacu infrastruktur. pada output.

Pasar tenaga kerja:

Penyempurnaan UU ketenagakerjaan; Peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja sektor formal; Implementasi sistem jaminan sosial bagi pekerja;

Pasar modal dan perbankan:

Mobilisasi dana masyarakat: tabungan haji, surplus dana masyarakat. Monetisasi asset negara; Peningkatan basis pajak.

Pasar barang:
Sistem distribusi yang efisien. Perlindungan wajar bagi produsen domestik dari persaingan tidak adil dengan produsen luar negeri;

Kebijakan afirmatif:
Active industrial policy: mendorong kegiatan usaha potensial dan strategis; Penguatan struktur pelaku usaha; Persebaran spasial kegiatan ekonomi

Lingkungan sosial dan politik

Kerangka kelembagaan

Struktur pasar

85

SUPRASTRUKTUR

Price disparities (Rupiah)

Region
East Jawa West Kalimantan East Kalimantan South Sulawesa East Nusa Tenggara Merauke Nabire Paniai
Source: Ministry of Trade.

Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt

4,250 4,400 4,500 4,400 4,200 5,000 6,000 18,000 3,606 4,000 4,000 3,500 4,500 7,000 6,000 5,800 6,500 6,500 5,800 7,000 4,150 4,500 4,500 4,500 6,300 6,670 11,000 7,000 1,600 2,450 2,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 8,000

10,000 11,000 7,500 8,000

Logistic cost in comparison

Logistics performance index

Source: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, 2007..

Latest logistics performance index: 2010

http://go.worldbank.org/48HLQW56U0

Low port efficiency

Singapore Hong Kong United States Canada Japan New Zealand Australia Malaysia Taiwan Thailand Chile Korea Mexico Russia China Indonesia Peru Philippines Viet Nam

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Source: Wilson, Mann, and Otsuki, 2004.

Port efficiency
Container handling cost per 40 feet (US$)
L. Chabang, Thailand Chittagong, Bangladesh Kwangyang, Korea Port Klang, Malaysia Manila, Philippines Keohsiung,Taiwan T. Priok, Indonesia
Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008.

Ship movement per hour (unit)

L. Chabang, Thailand Chittagong, Bangladesh Kwangyang, Korea Port Klang, Malaysia Minila, Philippines Keohsiung, Taiwan

43 60 69 70 85 88 130

75 10 80 50 20 75 35

T. Priok, Indonesia

Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the productivity is the lowest among neighbouring countris

Inland transportation cost

Indonesia and Asia
Indonesia: US$0.34/km Asia (average): US$0.22/km

Indonesia 1.5 times higher than average Asia (Source: The Asia Foundation) Cost of WarsawaHamburg (750 km) is half of MakassarEnrekang (240 km)
(Source: The Asia Foundation)

Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri