Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnam Party Conference Considers Reform or Die Carlyle A. Thayer February 29, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] We are preparing a report on the ongoing conference of the Vietnam Communist Party.Wewouldappreciateyourassessmentofthefollowing: 1.Ameetingof1,000delegatesincludingtheentirePolitburoistakingplaceinHanoi on reforming the governing Vietnam Communist Party. The conference will spend three days discussing how to restore shattered public trust. Two months ago, CommunistPartyGeneralSecretaryNguyenPhuTrongsaidthatifthepartywanted toremaininpower,itmustreformordie.Whatisthesignificanceofconveningthis conclave, particularly in the context of Vietnamese leaders contending with public disquietaboutlandrightsafteranevictionturnedshootoutinthenorthernportcity ofHaiPhong? ANSWER:TheVietnamCommunistPartyistheonlylegalpartyinVietnam.Itplays the difficult role of being both player and referee. This conference is important because of the participation of all highlevel leaders and so many other party members.Thesloganreformordieisnotnewbutistakenfromtheearlyyearsof i mi.In Vietnamscasetheparty willonlyretain thesupportof the people ifit seriously carries out selfcriticism and then acts to redress shortcomings. By giving publicitytothismeetingthepartyis,toacertainextent,becomingmoretransparent aboutitsinternalworkings. 2. Vietnams party chief Nguyen Phu Trong has said that it was "especially important" to adjust public spending and quickly remove barriers that inhibit "leadership,managementandadministration".Whatwasheactuallydrivingat? ANSWER:ForoveradecadeVietnamseconomyhashadhighgrowthrates.Tosome people high growth rates are sufficient. I interpret the party secretary generals remarksasimplyingthatVietnammuststepupdomesticreformbycuttingwasteful government expenditure.And,at thesametime,breakdownthebarrierstofuture longtermdevelopment,byadvancingthosewiththeskillandtalenttocarryoutreal reformsandremovingthoseofficialswhoaremerelymarkingtimesatisfiedwiththe statusquo. 3. Secretary General Trong also admitted that "a number of party... members lack properdiscipline,areplaguedbyindividualism,selfishnessandopportunism."Thisis not the first time Vietnamese leaders have acknowledged that the political system

2 hasbeenplaguedbyindividualism.Howdetrimentalisindividualismtothesurvival oftheregime? ANSWER:Vietnamisstillaneconomyintransitionwheremuchneedstobedoneto bringVietnamuptoworldclassstandardsofgovernanceandruleoflaw.Therewill alwaysbeaminorityofindividualswhogivelipservicetopartyidealsandattemptto profit from holding office in the party or state. The party has always stressed the collective over the individual. Vietnam faces a serious problem not just of individualismbyasinglepersonbutnetworksofcorruptionthatfosterindividualism. Thisisparticularlyseriousatlocallevel.Thepartymustuseitsleversofinspection andcontroltoidentifythosewhostandinthewayofreform. 4.Howimportantisthisconclave?Isitontheinternationalcommunitysradar? ANSWER: The current conference will be of importance to the international community that has an interest in Vietnams development. This includes foreign government officials, the business community, nongovernment organizations and others. However, because Vietnam is politically stable, the international communitysradarisfocusedelsewheresuchasSyriaandAfghanistan. 5.Yourfurthercommentswouldbeappreciated. ANSWERL: Generally, not much is known about the inner workings of the Vietnam CommunistParty.Therecentfourthplenumwentlargelyunpublicizedbytheforeign media.Also,thepartycarefullymanagedandlimitedtheamountofinformationthat was released to the public. It is hoped that this meeting will provide a detailed accountofitsdeliberationsandconclusionstotheVietnamesepublic,foreignmedia anddiplomaticcommunity.TheVietnamesepublicshouldbeencouragedtoofferits views on the proposed changes. Foreigners can hardly be expected to make an evaluation unless they are informed about the key issues discussed and the conclusions reached. There is much rumor about amending the Constitution but littleofsubstance.