MEDIARELEASE

(March 22, 2012)

FROM:

Prof. Ronald D. Holmes President Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE:

Pulse Asias March 2012 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on the Filipinos Senatorial Preferences from the March 2012 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information. The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 26 to March 9, 2012 using face-to-face interviews. The following developments preoccupied Filipinos immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey: (1) the ongoing impeachment trial of Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato C. Corona1; (2) the arraignment for electoral fraud of former President and incumbent Pampanga Representative Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo; (3) the death and destruction caused by a 6.9magnitude earthquake in the Visayas on 06 February 2012; (4) the commemoration of the 26th anniversary of EDSA People Power I; (5) the controversies involving a few presidential appointees; (6) the death of Negros Occidental Representative Ignacio Arroyo and the fight over his remains; and (7) the increase in oil prices, fluctuating
Bythetimethefieldworkforthissurveywascompleted,theimpeachmentcourtwasinrecessafter completing26trialdays.Theprosecutionresteditscaseon28February2012.Thetrialresumedon12 March2012.
1

power rates, declining headline inflation rate, and the record-breaking performance of the Philippine Stock Exchange. As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used. Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort. For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Pulse Asias March 2012 Ulat ng Bayan Survey: Media Release on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences 22 March 2012 Filipinos are naming an average of ten preferred senatorial candidates for May 2013; a small majority of Filipinos (55%) already has a complete senatorial lineup for the midterm elections With a little over a year before the May 2013 elections, Filipinos are identifying a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored candidates for the Senate. Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, mean figures range from eight in rural Visayas to 11 in urban Mindanao. A median figure of 12 is recorded in most of these sub-groupings. The Visayas, particularly rural Visayas, and Class ABC are the exceptions. More than half of the Filipino adult population (55%) is already naming 12 senatorial candidates they favor for the May 2013 elections. Majorities across virtually all geographic areas (including sub-regions) and socio-economic classes have a complete senatorial line-up (51% to 75%). (Please refer to Tables 1 and 2.)

Table 1 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

February 26 - March 9, 2012 / Philippines

Demographic variables Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Urban Rural Visayas Urban Rural Mindanao Urban Rural

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (13%) (44%) (21%) (23%) (20%) (7%) (13%) (23%) (7%) (16%) (5%) (64%) (45%) (19%) (31%)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Mean Median

10 10 10 10 9 9 10 8 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 9

12 12 12 12 12 9 12 8 12 12 12 10 12 12 12 12

Class ABC TOTAL D D1 (owns res'l lot) D2 (does not own res'l lot) E

Table 2 2013 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 26 - March 9, 2012 / Philippines

(Estimated Population Demographic variables Percentage)

Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Urban Rural Visayas Urban Rural Mindanao Urban Rural Class ABC TOTAL D D1 (owns res'l lot) D2 (does not own res'l lot) E (100%) (13%) (44%) (21%) (23%) (20%) (7%) (13%) (23%) (7%) (16%) (5%) (64%) (45%) (19%) (31%)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

0
3 4 3 2 5 3 2 4 2 0 3 2 3 3 3 3

1
2 1 2 1 3 1 0 1 1 0 2 4 2 2 1 1

2
2 2 1 2 1 2 4 1 1 0 1 3 2 2 1 1

3
3 1 2 2 3 6 2 8 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 5

4
3 3 1 1 2 6 4 8 2 1 2 4 1 1 2 5

5
4 6 4 6 3 5 3 7 2 1 3 5 4 4 4 6

6
4 4 3 5 2 9 6 11 3 5 2 6 5 6 5 2

7
5 3 5 5 6 7 5 8 4 4 4 11 5 6 4 4

8
5 4 7 5 9 3 4 3 4 5 4 7 6 6 5 3

9
7 6 8 8 8 9 5 11 3 0 5 6 6 7 5 8

10
4 7 3 4 3 3 5 1 4 5 4 7 4 3 5 4

11
4 3 6 6 6 2 1 3 3 1 3 2 4 4 6 4

12
55 56 53 54 51 43 58 35 68 75 65 42 56 55 57 54

Out of 74 individuals included in the senatorial probe, 15 have a statistical chance of winning; Senator Loren Legarda is in solo 1st place (58.5%) If the May 2013 senatorial elections were held during the survey period (26 February to 09 March 2012), 15 out of the 74 personalities included in the senatorial probe would have a statistical chance of winning. Most of the probable winners are either incumbent or former members of the Senate. Claiming the top spot is Senator Loren Legarda, who enjoys an overall voter preference of 58.5%. Landing in 2nd place is Senator Francis G. Escudero (52.7%). Completing the top five are former Senator and incumbent Transportation and Communications Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II (41.8%), Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano (41.6%) and Cagayan Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (38.2%). These three individuals register a best statistical ranking of 3rd place. However, the lowest possible ranking of Transportation and Communications Secretary Roxas and Senator Cayetano is 5th place while that of Cagayan Representative Enrile is 7th place. (Please refer to Table 3.) Former Vice-President Noli de Castro, also a former member of the Senate, would be re-elected as senator by 34.6% of adult Filipinos. This translates to a statistical ranking of 5th to 9th places. Two re-electionists would also win another term Senator Antonio F. Trillanes IC (33.7%, 5th to 10th places) and Senator Gregorio B. Honasan (32.1%, 6th to 10th places). Occupying 6th to 12th

places is San Juan Representative Joseph Victor Ejercito (31.3%) while Senator Aquilino Martin Pimentel III would make it to 7th to 12th places (29.0%). Five other individuals make it to the winners circle former Leyte Representative Ted Failon (26.9%, 9th to 14th places), Justice Secretary Leila M. de Lima (26.6%, 9th to 15th places), former Senator and incumbent Muntinlupa Representative Rodolfo G. Biazon (22.5%, 11th to 22nd places), former Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (22.4%, 11th to 22nd places) and former Senator Ana Madrigal (21.8%, 12th to 22nd places). There are seven other personalities who are within striking distance of a senatorial seat former Quezon City Representative Michael T. Defensor (21.5%), Ms. Kris Aquino (20.7%), former Senator Richard J. Gordon (20.3%), Mr. Willie Revillame (20.2%), Ms. Ma. Lourdes Nancy Binay (19.5%), Ilocos Norte Governor Imee R. Marcos (18.6%) and Aurora Representative Juan Edgardo M. Angara (18.1%). Former Quezon City Representative Defensor has a statistical ranking of 13th to 22nd places while the rest share 13th to 24th places. Less than one in ten Filipinos (3.0%) refuses to name their preferred senatorial candidates or does not express support for any of the 74 individuals whose senatorial preferences are probed in this survey.

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 26 - March 9, 2012 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 1 of 2

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Aware

Voting For

Rank

LEGARDA, Loren ESCUDERO, Francis "Chiz" G. ROXAS, Manuel "Mar" A. II CAYETANO, Alan Peter "Compaero" S. ENRILE, Juan Ponce "Enrile Jr." DE CASTRO, Noli "Kabayan" TRILLANES, Antonio "Sonny" F. IV HONASAN, Gregorio "Gringo" B. EJERCITO, Joseph Victor "JV Estrada" PIMENTEL, Aquilino Martin "Koko" III FAILON, Ted DE LIMA, Leila M. BIAZON, Rodolfo "Pong" G. ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel "Migz" F. MADRIGAL, Ana "Jamby" DEFENSOR, Michael "Mike" T. AQUINO, Kris GORDON, Richard "Dick" J. REVILLAME, Willie BINAY, Ma. Lourdes Nancy "Nancy" MARCOS, Imee R. ANGARA, Juan Edgardo "Sonny" M. CUNETA, Sharon DE VENECIA, Jose III "Joey" P. POE, Grace "FPJ" TEODORO, Gilbert "Gibo" C. MACEDA, Ernesto "Manong Ernie" HAGEDORN, Edward "Ed" ENRIQUEZ, Mike HONTIVEROS-BARAQUEL, Ana "Risa Hontiveros" GOMEZ, Richard "Goma" LIM, Danilo "General Danny" D. MERCADO-REVILLA, Lani MANZANO, Eduardo "Edu" B. QUERUBIN, Ariel "Marines" O.

100 99 100 98 84 96 97 99 95 98 92 94 83 98 93 87 98 89 96 60 91 67 98 86 80 92 81 63 92 64 96 58 94 97 58

58.5 52.7 41.8 41.6 38.2 34.6 33.7 32.1 31.3 29.0 26.9 26.6 22.5 22.4 21.8 21.5 20.7 20.3 20.2 19.5 18.6 18.1 17.0 16.4 12.7 11.8 11.4 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.8 10.4 10.3 8.9 8.8

1 2 3-5 3-5 3-7 5-9 5-10 6-10 6-12 7-12 9-14 9-15 11-22 11-22 12-22 13-22 13-24 13-24 13-24 13-24 13-24 13-24 17-24 17-25 24-33 25-37 25-37 25-37 25-37 25-37 25-38 25-38 25-38 26-41 26-41

Q121. Kung ang nasabing halalan sa 2013 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-senador? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan. (SHOWLIST) Q122. May nabasa o narinig na ba kayo ng kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod kahit na kailan?

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 26 - March 9, 2012 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 2 of 2

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Aware

Voting For

Rank

MAGSAYSAY, Ma. Milagros "Mitos" H. TATAD, Francisco "Kit" S. MONSOD, Solita "Mareng Winnie" C. PICHAY, Prospero "Butch" C. Jr. TUPAS, Niel "Junjun" JR. C. BARBERS, Robert Ace "Ace" TOLENTINO, Francis "MMDA" N. GONZALES, Neptali "Boyet" M. II FARIAS, Rodolfo "Rudy" C. GARCIA, Gwendolyn "Gwen" CLAVIO, Arnold "Igan" OCAMPO, Saturnino "Satur" C. ACOSTA, Jr. Nereus "Neric" O. TAADA, Lorenzo "Erin" R. III TAMANO, Adel A. COJUANGCO, Mark O. GOLEZ, Roilo S. QUEZON, Manuel "Manolo" L. III MAZA, Liza "Liza ng Gabriela" PADACA, Grace ABAD, Florencio "Butch" B. SOLIMAN, Corazon "Dinky" J. DUMAGOSO, Francisco "Isko Moreno" VILLANUEVA, Emmanuel Joel "Joel" J. HERRERA, Bernadette "BH/Bagong Henerasyon" LACIERDA, Edwin REMULLA, Jesus Crispin "Boying" C. ALCALA, Proceso "Procy" J. CASIO, Teddy A. PUNO, Ronaldo "Ronnie" SUAREZ, Danilo "Danny" ZAMORA, Ronaldo "Ronnie" VILLAFUERTE, Luis Raymond "Lray" JR. ROBREDO, Jesse "Jess" GATCHALIAN, Sherwin "Win" T. MANDANAS, Hermilando "Dodo" I. PANLILIO, Eduardo "Among Ed" DOMINGO, Gregory "Greg" DE QUIROS, Conrado "Conrad" None / Refused / Undecided

51 79 77 84 72 76 52 61 47 46 76 75 47 66 51 41 58 38 63 46 44 71 73 25 54 85 38 65 43 58 36 30 28 76 34 22 50 64 23 ---

8.7 8.5 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.0

26-42 26-42 31-45 34-46 34-46 34-47 36-53 38-59 38-60 38-60 39-62 41-62 42-64 42-64 42-68 42-69 42-69 42-69 43-69 43-69 43-69 43-69 43-71 43-72 44-72 46-73 46-73 48-73 48-73 50-73 50-73 50-73 50-73 51-73 58-73 58-73 59-73 61-74 73-74 ---

Q121. Kung ang nasabing halalan sa 2013 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-senador? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan. (SHOWLIST) Q122. May nabasa o narinig na ba kayo ng kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod kahit na kailan?