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Reliance Industries
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net operating income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 17.2 (33.3) (584)bp (21.2) 3QFY12 85,135 7,285 8.6 4,440 % chg (qoq) 0.1 (9.9) (85)bp (4.6)
`731 `872
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Oil & Gas 252,460 1.1 1,066/689 775420 10 16,752 5,046 RELI.BO RIL@IN
For 4QFY2012, Reliance Industries (RIL) reported 17.2% yoy growth in its top line. However, EBITDA and PAT declined by 33.3% yoy and 21.2% yoy, respectively, due to a decline in KG-D6 gas production and lower gross refining margins (GRMs). Lower gas production leads to a decline in bottom line: RILs net sales increased by 17.2% yoy to `85,182cr, in-line with our estimate of `84,669cr. However, EBITDA decreased by 33.3% yoy to `6,563cr on account of lower profits from all its three main segments. GRM stood at US$7.6/bbl in 4QFY2012 compared to US$9.2/bbl in 4QFY2011 and US$6.8/bbl in 3QFY2012. Production from KG-D6 stood at 35mmscmd in 4QFY2012 compared to 41mmscmd in 3QFY2012 and 51mmscmd in 4QFY2011. Other income increased by 150.3% yoy to `2,295cr and depreciation expenses decreased by 21.5% yoy to `2,659cr. Hence, despite the 33.3% decline in EBITDA, PAT decreased by only 21.2% yoy to `4,236cr (slightly above our estimate of `4,177cr). RIL to set up a petcoke gasification plant: During 4QFY2012, RIL finalized its plan to set up a petcoke gasification plant for a capex of US$4bn. The company also downgraded its KG-D6 reserves by 12-15% due to reservoir complexity. Outlook and valuation: RILs refining and petrochemical segments profits declined during 4QFY2012. Going forward, although there are some concerns on the KG basin gas output, we believe RIL along with BP will optimize its producing blocks in KG-D6. Moreover, the stock is currently trading at a PE of 11.1x FY2013E and 10.4x FY2014E, compared to its past five-year trading average of 17.0x forward PE. Thus, we maintain our Buy recommendation on RIL with an SOTP target price of `872. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/ Sales (x) EV/ EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 44.7 11.4 17.0 26.9
3m
3.8 (5.4)
1yr
(10.8) (18.2)
3yr
58.2 36.1
FY2011 248,170 21.8 20,286 7.8 62.0 15.4 11.8 13.7 10.5 1.4 1.0 6.7
FY2012E 329,904 32.9 20,040 (1.2) 61.2 10.2 11.9 12.3 8.8 1.3 0.7 6.8
FY2013E 325,734 (1.3) 21,520 7.4 65.8 10.9 11.1 11.9 9.1 1.1 0.7 6.5
FY2014E 328,669 0.9 22,926 6.5 70.0 11.6 10.4 11.5 9.2 1.0 0.7 5.6
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
4QFY2012 85,182 71,519 78,619 6,563 7.7 2,295 2,659 768 5,431 6.4 1,195 22.0 4,236 4,236 5.0
4QFY2011 72,674 58,259 62,831 9,843 13.5 917 3,387 696 6,677 9.2 1,301 19.5 5,376 5,376 7.4
% chg (yoy) 17.2 22.8 25.1 (33.3) 150.3 (21.5) 10.3 (18.7) (8.1) (21.2) (21.2)
3QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 85,135 74,190 77,850 7,285 8.6 1,717 2,570 694 5,738 6.7 1,298 22.6 4,440 4,440 5.2 (4.6) (4.6) (7.9) (5.4) 33.7 3.5 10.7 0.1 (3.6) 1.0 (9.9)
4QFY2012 4QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 3QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 21,412 76,211 2,609 260 100,492 18,194 62,704 4,104 173 85,175 17.7 21.5 (36.4) 50.3 18.0 19,781 76,738 2,832 208 99,559 8.2 (0.7) (7.9) 25.0 0.9
Estimates
84,669 6,819 8.1 5,375 4,177
Actual
85,182 6,563 7.7 5,431 4,236
Variation (%)
0.6 (3.7) 0.3 1.0 1.4
(` cr)
49
45
(mmscmd)
41 35
40 30 20 10 0
1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 KG D6 gas production
Source: Company, Angel Research
(%)
25.0
(` cr)
4QFY11
Refining
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
Others
4QFY12
(` cr)
(%)
(%)
12.5
Segment-wise performance
Refining: During the quarter, crude processing stood at 16.3mn tonnes (compared to 16.7mn tonnes in 4QFY2011), with its refinery reporting capacity utilization of 109%. Despite the decline in crude throughput, higher petroleum product prices led to a 21.5% yoy increase in the refining segments revenue to `76,211cr. However, GRM decreased to US$7.6/bbl in 4QFY2012 compared to US$9.2/bbl in 4QFY2011 (US$6.8/bbl in 3QFY2012) on account of lower product cracks. Thus, the refining segments EBIT decreased by 32.4% yoy to `1,696cr.
(US $/bbl)
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
RIL GRMs
Singapore GRMs
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
Capacity Utilisation
Petrochemicals: During 4QFY2012, the petrochemicals segments revenue grew by 17.7% yoy to `21,412cr due to higher prices and sales volumes. However, the segments EBIT margin declined by 428bp yoy to 10.2% and EBIT declined by 17.2% yoy to `2,174cr.
4QFY12
(mn tonnes)
(%)
4QFY12
Oil and gas: The oil and gas segments revenue decreased by 36.4% yoy to `2,609cr due to lower production from KG-D6 block; however, this was partially offset by the increase in crude oil realization. Production from KG-D6 stood at 35mmscmd in 4QFY2012 compared to 51mmscmd in 4QFY2011. Consequently, the segments EBIT decreased by 39.4% yoy to `951cr during the quarter.
Investment arguments
Ramp-up in KG-D6 could re-rate the stock: RILs upstream segment still has significant upside in store, considering the huge untapped resources. RILs natural gas production stood at 35mmscmd in 4QFY2012, significantly below its potential of 80mmscmd from KG-D6 due to constraints over reservoir pressure. Nevertheless, we believe RIL can ramp up its production over the medium term with the help of BPs technical expertise. Foray into newer businesses: RIL has been eyeing inorganic routes for diversifying its asset portfolio by entering into newer ventures, such as retail and telecom, on the back of significant cash pile (`72,252cr as on March 31, 2012) and treasury stocks. Initiatives such as shale gas acquisitions, with in-place reserves of over 10TCF, could prove to be a potential trigger for the stock in the long term.
`/share
268 187 142 45 54 60 35 60 30 15 36 931
(59) 872
Bloomberg consensus
66.9 71.0
Variation (%)
(1.7) (1.4)
65.8 70.0
Share price (` )
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11 Dec-11
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-07
Jan-12
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
7x
Source: Company, Angel Research
10x
13x
16x
19x
(%)
20 10 0
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Prem/Disc to Sensex
Apr-12
Apr-12
Jul-06
151,224 203,740 248,170 329,904 325,734 328,669 10.3 34.7 21.8 32.9 (1.3) 0.9 127,802 172,846 210,044 296,285 290,276 290,388 105,224 147,065 189,991 273,942 268,386 268,490 7,202 3,018 12,358 23,422 1.2 15.5 5,651 17,771 (2.0) 11.8 1,816 1,914 10.7 17,869 (2.2) 17,869 2,919 19.5 14,950 18 14,969 14,969 1.2 9.9 45.7 45.7 1.2 7,538 2,791 15,452 30,894 31.9 15.2 10,946 19,948 12.2 9.8 2,060 2,185 7.6 20,074 12.3 8,606 28,680 4,256 17.4 24,424 80 24,503 15,897 6.2 7.8 48.6 48.6 6.2 25,242 4,956 24.4 20,286 20,286 20,286 7.8 8.2 62.0 62.0 (17.2) 144 2,624 15,965 38,126 23.4 15.4 13,608 24,518 22.9 9.9 2,328 3,052 12.1 25,242 25.7 1,441 2,862 18,040 33,619 (11.8) 10.2 11,394 22,225 (9.4) 6.7 2,667 6,192 24.0 25,750 2.0 25,750 5,710 24.0 20,040 20,040 20,040 (1.2) 6.1 61.2 61.2 (1.2) 1,412 2,804 17,674 35,458 5.5 10.9 11,657 23,801 7.1 7.3 2,350 6,811 24.1 28,262 9.8 28,262 6,783 24.0 21,479 41 21,520 21,520 7.4 6.6 65.8 65.8 7.4 1,412 2,805 17,681 38,281 8.0 11.6 12,983 25,298 6.3 7.7 1,736 6,947 22.8 30,509 7.9 30,509 7,627 25.0 22,882 44 22,926 22,926 6.5 7.0 70.0 70.0 6.5
10
11
17,869 7,713 (5,771) (1,330) (1,926) 16,555 3,366 (102) 1,364 15,165 16,514 (1,908)
28,680 14,001 (1,786) (3,140) 31,815 2,645 (19) 2,160 513 (5,822) (2,219)
25,242 16,820 (1,722) (4,243) 33,338 (8,102) 9,666 196 (2,431) (8,378) 16,248 13,891 30,139
25,750 11,394 1,599 (6,192) (5,710) 26,841 6,192 (2,746) (2,683) 7,805 30,139 37,944
28,262 11,657 504 (6,811) (6,783) 26,829 6,811 (5,110) (2,981) (8,091) 9,979 37,944 47,924
30,509 12,983 (500) (6,947) (7,627) 28,418 6,947 (5,000) (3,279) (8,279) 5,716 47,924 53,640
(5,939) (14,688)
(8,759) (14,422)
20,701 (13,606)
(4,954) (14,907) 24,817 (22,436) 18,268 4,474 22,742 (8,851) 22,742 13,891
14,950 (16,289)
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT/Int.)
0.4 2.0 9.8 0.3 1.2 9.7 0.2 0.8 10.5 0.1 0.3 8.3 (0.0) (0.1) 10.1 (0.1) (0.4) 14.6 1.1 47.4 13.2 84.5 20.9 1.1 48.8 13.4 78.8 8.7 1.1 50.3 14.9 72.8 17.0 1.3 44.3 13.6 65.6 10.7 1.2 50.8 15.6 76.3 9.7 1.1 49.8 14.9 75.0 9.6 10.0 17.4 14.3 9.4 13.5 14.3 10.5 13.0 13.7 8.8 11.6 12.3 9.1 12.0 11.9 9.2 12.2 11.5 44.6 44.6 69.7 6.4 407 74.9 74.9 99.8 7.0 475 62.0 62.0 113.7 8.5 517 61.2 61.2 105.4 9.0 575 65.8 65.8 111.3 10.0 637 70.0 70.0 120.5 11.0 703 16.4 10.5 1.8 0.9 1.7 10.9 1.2 9.8 7.3 1.5 1.0 1.3 8.6 1.2 11.8 6.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 6.7 1.0 11.9 6.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 6.8 0.9 11.1 6.6 1.1 1.4 0.7 6.5 0.9 10.4 6.1 1.0 1.5 0.7 5.6 0.8
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
RIL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14