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May 2, 2012
Punj Lloyd
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 32.2 3.9 (2.9) 3QFY12 2,826 164 70 % chg (qoq) 7.5 55.7 (87.2)
`54 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2012, Punj Lloyd (Punj) posted a mixed set of numbers with decent performance on the revenue front; however, the company reported dismal performance on the earnings front mainly on account of higher interest cost. Punj has received orders worth `13,817cr (commendable job in a gloomy environment) during FY2012 against `9,978cr in FY2011, taking its order backlog to `27,276cr (2.6x FY2012 revenue). However, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock on account of various overhangs uncertainty over receivable claims, stretched working capital, increasing leverage on the balance sheet and auditor qualifications. Mixed performance: For 4QFY2012, Punj posted 32.2% yoy top-line growth to `3,038cr. The companys EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 8.4% in 4QFY2012 against 10.7% in 4QFY2011. Interest and depreciation cost came in at `187cr and `70cr, respectively. Interest cost witnessed a jump of 37.0%/15.2% on a yoy/qoq basis, respectively. On the earnings front, Punj reported profit of `9cr, registering a decline of 2.9% on a yoy basis. Outlook and valuation: We are revising our estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 to factor in the companys mixed performance in 4QFY2012. As compared to the previous quarters, Punj has performed better in 2HFY2012; also, a few positives (such as healthy order inflow and reduction in auditor qualification) have emerged during the past two quarters. However, owing to the erratic performance posted by the company in the past, continuance of this performance remains in doubt. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock due to headwinds faced by the company (mentioned above).
PUNJ@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 37.2 19.4 11.7 31.7
3m (0.8)
1yr (8.9)
(4.8) (20.6)
FY2011 8,139 (22.1) (60) (1.8) 8.9 (2.0) 5.9 0.6 0.6 7.0
FY2012 10,557 29.7 92 2.8 8.5 18.9 3.0 7.2 0.6 0.6 7.4
FY2013E 11,592 9.8 60 (34.2) 1.8 8.4 28.7 2.0 7.3 0.6 0.6 6.9
FY2014E 12,993 12.1 106 74.8 3.2 8.4 16.4 3.4 8.0 0.5 0.6 6.6
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3,038 2,783 255 8.4 187 70 17 16 (5) 21 (3) (9) 9 0.3 9 0.3 0.3
4QFY11 2,299 2,053 245 10.7 136 70 6 45 26 18 (3) 2 9 0.8 9 0.4 0.3
% yoy chg 32.2 35.5 3.9 (230)bp 37.0 (0.1) 200.9 (65.3) (119.2) 12.1 (2.9) (2.9) (2.9)
3QFY12 2,826 2,662 164 5.8 162 89 195 107 33 75 (5) 1 70 2.6 70 2.5 2.1
% qoq chg 7.5 4.5 55.7 260bp 15.2 (21.7) (91.2) (85.5) (115.6) (72.3) (87.2) (87.2) -
FY2012 10,557 9,660 897 8.5 633 299 227 193 81 112 (11) (9) 92 1.1 92 0.9 2.8
FY2011 8,139 7,411 728 8.9 463 269 21 16 66 (50) 2 (3) (60) (0.6) (60) (0.7) (1.8)
% chg 29.7 30.3 23.3 (40)bp 36.5 11.0 994.0 1,115.8 21.7 -
Libya: On the Libyan orders (~`3,900cr) front, Punj is hopeful that the new government will honor the contracts. As per the company, resource mobilization is continuing at Libya and execution of upstream and oil and gas projects is expected to resume shortly. Accordingly, auditors have invited attention to the Libya issue as Emphasis of Matter only. However, political situation in Libya has not stabilized yet and the company is hoping that some stability will emerge in the next 3-6 months. Heera: In ONGC Heera matter, arbitration proceedings, which had been initiated, have been adjourned on mutual agreement. The dispute is being referred to Outside Expert Committee (OEC). This would likely resolve the dispute expeditiously. Further, there has been a reduction in auditor qualifications regarding non-accounting of liquidation damages on Heera project from `65cr to `7cr.
May 2, 2012
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
-
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
(29.0)
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
May 2, 2012
4QFY12
4QFY12
FY2014E Variation (%) 9.4 (23.4) Earlier Estimates 12,193 8.4 151 Revised Estimates 12,993 8.4 106 Variation (%) 6.6 (30.2) 11,592 8.4 74
Revised Estimates
10,592 8.4 96
As compared to the previous quarters, Punj performed better in 2HFY2012; also, a few positives (such as healthy order inflow and reduction in auditor qualification) emerged during the past two quarters. However, owing to the erratic performance posted by the company in the past, continuance of this performance remains in doubt. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock due to headwinds faced by the company.
1.8 3.2
May 2, 2012
Buy 13,963 16,017 18,359 Buy 53,779 60,258 69,900 Buy Buy 1,952 4,946 3,573 2,604 5,929 2,503 5,790 3,609 2,989 6,732 2,903 7,022 3,836 3,314 7,902
1,215 1,641
May 2, 2012
9.8
10,614 3,350 5,784 1,310 170 978
12.1
11,897 3,755 6,484 1,468 190 1,096
9.0 8.4
318 660
12.1 8.4
342 754
10.2 5.7
645 95 87 -
14.2 5.8
676 114 59 -
109 (43.4)
-
191 74.8
-
109
35
191
62
32.5
74
32.5
129
(7) (6) 60 60
May 2, 2012
FY2011 FY2012E 66 2,912 2,979 74 4,542 156 7,752 66 2,990 3,056 74 5,586 156 8,872
FY2013E FY2014E 66 66
May 2, 2012
(237) 95
(142)
(319) 114
(205)
310 14 (14)
283 243 673 916
336 14 (24)
298 (200) 916 717
May 2, 2012
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order Book/Sales (x) Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.1 6.2 0.7 1.3 10.5 0.4 1.1 4.6 1.0 1.6 5.5 0.9
1.6 5.1 1.0 1.7 5.0 1.1
FY2009 FY2010 0.6 0.7 0.4 10.2 0.7 1.7 (7.9) (7.2) (2.1) 0.4 81.9 2.2 2.6 0.7 4.9 5.7 (9.2) 5.0 88 73 125 64 0.6 0.3 0.5 15.3 0.7 2.7 (10.9) (10.9) (4.1) 0.2 91.2 1.3 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.2 (13.2) 3.6 145 85 151 122
FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2013E 8.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 7.0 0.7 2.3 (1.8) (1.8) 6.3 0.2 89.7 5.6 1.2 1.2 5.9 6.7 (2.0) 2.5 213 98 195 181 18.9 4.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 7.4 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 11.8 0.4 92.0 5.7 58.2 1.4 4.7 7.3 1.3 1.3 7.2 8.1 3.0 2.9 192 92 186 151
28.7 4.6 0.6 16.4 3.9 0.5
0.8
0.6 6.9 0.7 2.5 1.8 1.8 11.4
0.8
0.6 6.6 0.8 2.4 3.2 3.2 13.5
0.4
93.4 5.7 67.6
0.4
96.2 5.8 67.6
1.4
5.4 7.6 1.6 1.9
1.5
5.9 7.5 1.6 3.2
7.3
8.0 2.0 2.9 207 99 199 163
8.0
8.7 3.4 3.0 205 94 197 157
May 2, 2012
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbrokling.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Punj Lloyd No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
May 2, 2012
10