Chapter 5: Probability Distributions
(Discrete Variables)
Chapter Goals
• Combine the ideas of frequency
distributions and probability to form
probability distributions.
• Investigate discrete probability distributions
and study measures of central tendency and
dispersion.
• Study the binomial random variable.
1
5.1: Random Variables
Random Variable: A variable that assumes a unique
numerical value for each of the outcomes in the sample space
of a probability experiment.
Note:
1. Used to denote the outcomes of a probability experiment.
2. Each outcome in a probability experiment is assigned to a
unique value.
3. Illustration:
S
Random Variable
Outcomes
2 1 0 1 2
2
Examples of random variables:
1. Let the number of computers sold per day by a local
merchant be a random variable. Integer values ranging
from zero to about 50 are possible values.
2. Let the number of defective components in a shipment of
1000 be a random variable. Values range from 0 to 1000.
Discrete Random Variable: A quantitative random variable
that can assume a countable number of values.
Intuitively, a discrete random variable can assume values
corresponding to isolated points along a line interval. That is,
there is a gap between any two values.
Note: Usually associated with counting.
3
Continuous Random Variable: A quantitative random
variable that can assume an uncountable number of values.
Intuitively, a continuous random variable can assume any
value along a line interval, including every possible value
between any two values.
Note: Usually associated with a measurement.
4
5.2 Probability Distributions of a discrete
Random Variable
Probability Distribution: A distribution of the probabilities
associated with each of the values of a random variable. The
probability distribution is a theoretical distribution; it is used
to represent populations.
Note:
1. The probability distribution tells you everything you need
to know about the random variable.
2. The probability distribution may be presented in the form
of a table, chart, function, etc.
Probability Function: A rule that assigns probabilities to the
values of the random variable. 5
Example: A coin is tossed five times. Let the random
variable x be the number of heads. The probability
distribution is given in various forms below.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 1/32 5/32 10/32 10/32 5/32 1/32
The Probability Function is
P(x) = 5Cx /25.
6
A histogram may be used to present a probability
distribution.
Probability distribution of number of heads:
7
Reminder: Every probability function must satisfy the two
basic properties of probability.
1. The probability assigned to each value of the random
variable must be between 0 and 1, inclusive:
0 P( x) 1
2. The sum of the probabilities assigned to all the values of
the random variable must equal 1:
P( x) 1
all x
8
5.3: Mean and Variance of a
Discrete Probability
Distribution
Describe the center and spread of a
population.
m, s, s2 : population parameters.
Population parameters are usually unknown
values (we would like to estimate).
9
Note:
1. x is the mean of the sample.
2. s2 and s are the variance and standard deviation of the
sample.
3. x , s2, and s are called sample statistics.
4. m (lowercase Greek letter “mu”) is the mean of the
population.
5. s2 (“sigma squared”) is the variance of the population.
6. s (lowercase Greek letter “sigma”) is the standard
deviation of the population.
7. m, s2, and s are called population parameters. (A
parameter is a constant. m, s2, and s are typically unknown
values.)
10
Mean of a Discrete Random Variable:
The mean, m, of a discrete random variable x is found by
multiplying each possible value of x by its own probability
and then adding all the products together.
m [ xP( x )]
Note:
1. The mean is the average value of the random variable,
what happens on average.
2. The mean is not necessarily a value of the random
variable.
11
Variance of a Discrete Random Variable:
Variance, s2, of a discrete random variable x is found by
multiplying each possible value of the squared deviation from
the mean, (x m)2, by its own probability and then adding all
the products together.
s 2 [( x m ) 2 P ( x )]
[ x P ( x )] [ xP( x )]
2 2
[ x 2 P ( x )] m 2
Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable:
The positive square root of the variance.
s s2
12
Example: The number of standby passengers who get seats on
a daily commuter flight from Boston to New York is a
random variable, x, with probability distribution given below
(in an extensions table). Find the mean, variance, and
standard deviation.
x P( x ) xP( x ) x 2 x 2 P( x)
0 0.30 0.00 0 0.00
1 0.25 0.25 1 0.25
2 0.20 0.40 4 0.80
3 0.15 0.45 9 1.35
4 0.05 0.20 16 0.80
5 0.05 0.25 25 1.25
Totals 1.00 1.55 4.45
P( x) [ xP( x)] P( x )]
[ x 2
(check)
13
Solution:
Using the formulas for mean, variance, and standard
deviation:
m [ xP( x )] 155
.
Note: 1.55 is not a value of the random variable (in this case).
It is only what happens on average.
s [ x P ( x )] [ xP ( x )]
2 2 2
4.45 (155
. ) 2 4.45 2.4025 2.0475
s s 2 2.0475 1.43
14
Example: Box 1 contains 5 red balls and 3 black balls.
Box 2 contains 3 red balls and 1 black ball. A ball is
selected at random from Box 1 and is put into Box 2.
Then, a ball is selected at random from Box 2. Let x
be the number of red balls selected from the boxes.
1. Find the probability distribution for x.
2. What are the mean and standard deviation of x?
3. Find the probability that the ball selected from Box
1 is red, given that the ball selected from Box 2 is
black.
15
Solution:
5 4 1
1. P(both red balls )
8 5 2
5 1 1
P(1st red and 2nd black )
8 5 8
3 3 9
P(1st black and 2nd red)
8 5 40
3 2 3
P(both black balls )
8 5 20
x 0 1 2
3 7 1
P (x ) 20 20 2
16
2. m xP( x )
7 1
1 2
20 2
27
1.35
20
s x 2
P ( x ) m 2
2
7 2 1 27
2
20 2 20
211
0.7263
400
17
P (1st red and 2nd black )
3. P (1st red | 2nd black )
P (2nd black )
1
8
1 3
8 20
5
11
0.4545
18
5.4: The Binomial Probability
Distribution
Binomial Probability Experiment:
An experiment that is made up of repeated trials that possess
the following properties:
1. There are n repeated independent trials.
2. Each trial has two possible outcomes (success, failure).
3. P(success) = p, P(failure) = q, and p + q = 1
4. The binomial random variable x is the count of the
number of successful trials that occur; x may take on any
integer value from zero to n.
19
Example: It is known that 40% of all graduating seniors on
campus have taken a statistics class. Five seniors are selected
at random and asked if they have taken a statistics class.
1. A trial is asking one student, repeated 5 times. The trials
are independent since the probability of taking a statistics
class for any one student is not affected by the results from
any other student.
2. Two outcomes on each trial:
taken a statistics class (success),
not taken a statistics class (failure)
3. p = P(taken a statistics class) = .40
q = P(not taken a statistics class) = .60
4. x = number of students who have taken a statistics class
20
Binomial Probability Function:
For a binomial experiment, let p represent the probability of a
“success” and q represent the probability of a “failure” on a
single trial; then P(x), the probability that there will be
exactly x successes on n trials is
n x n x
P ( x ) ( p )( q ), for x 0, 1, 2, ... , or n
x
Note:
1. The number of ways that exactly x successes can occur in
n trials:
n
x
2. The probability of exactly x successes: px
3. The probability that failure will occur on the remaining
(n - x) trials: qn - x
21
Note:
The number of ways that exactly x successes can occur in a
set of n trials is represented by the symbol
n
x
1. Must always be a positive integer.
2. Called the binomial coefficient.
3. Found by using the formula:
n n!
x x !( n x )!
n! is an abbreviation for n factorial.
n! n( n 1)( n 2) ... (3)( 2)(1).
6! 6 5 4 3 2 1 720.
22
Example: According to a recent study, 65% of all homes in a
certain county have high levels of radon gas leaking into their
basements. Four homes are selected at random and tested for
radon. The random variable x is the number of homes with
high levels of radon (out of the four).
Properties:
1. There are 4 repeated trials: n = 4. The trials are
independent.
2. Each test for radon is a trial, and each test has two
outcomes: radon or no radon.
3. p = P(radon) = .65, q = P(no radon) = .35
p+q=1
4. x is the number of homes with high levels of radon,
possible values: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
23
The binomial probability function:
4
P ( x ) (.65) x (.35) 4 x , for x 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
x
4
P( 0) (.65) 0 (.35) 4 (1)(1)( 0.0150) 0.0150
0
4
P(1) (.65)1 (.35) 3 ( 4)( 0.65)( 0.0429) 0.1115
1
4
P( 2) (.65) 2 (.35) 2 ( 6)( 0.4225)( 0.1225) 0.3105
2
4
P( 3) (.65) 3 (.35)1 ( 4)( 0.2746)( 0.35) 0.3845
3
4
P( 4) (.65) 4 (.35) 0 (1)( 0.1785)(1) 0.1785
4
m xP( x) 2.6,
s x P( x) m
2 2
0.954 .
24
Example: In a certain automobile dealership, 70% of all
customers purchase an extended warranty with their new car.
For 15 customers selected at random:
1. Find the probability that exactly 12 will purchase an
extended warranty.
2. Find the probability at most 13 will purchase an extended
warranty.
Solution:
Let x be the number of customers who purchase an extended
warranty. x is a binomial random variable.
The probability function associated with this experiment:
15
P ( x ) (.7) x (.3)15 x , for x 0, 1, 2, ... ,15
x
25
Probability exactly 12 purchase an extended warranty:
15
P(12) (.7)12 (.3) 3 .1700
12
Probability at most 13 purchase an extended warranty:
P ( x 13) P (0) P (1) P (13)
1 P (14) P (15)
15 14 1 15 15 0
1 (.7) (.3) (.7) (.3)
14 15
1 [.0305 .0047 ]
1 .0352 .9648
26
5.5: Mean and Standard Deviation of the
Binomial Distribution
The mean and standard deviation of a theoretical binomial
distribution can be found by using the following two
formulas:
m np
s npq
Note:
1. Mean is intuitive: number of trials multiplied by the
probability of a success.
2. The variance of a binomial probability distribution is:
s npq npq
2 2
27
Example: Find the mean and standard deviation of the
binomial distribution when n = 18 and p = .75.
Solution:
n = 18, p = .75, q = 1 .75 = .25
m np (18)(.75) 135
.
s npq (18)(.75)(.25) 3.375 18371
.
The probability function is
18
P ( x ) (.75) x (.25)18 x for x 0, 1, 2, ... , 18
x
28
Table of values and probabilities:
x P( X = x)
0.00 0.0000
1.00 0.0000
2.00 0.0000
3.00 0.0000
4.00 0.0000
5.00 0.0000
6.00 0.0002
7.00 0.0010
8.00 0.0042
9.00 0.0139
10.00 0.0376
11.00 0.0820
12.00 0.1436
13.00 0.1988
14.00 0.2130
15.00 0.1704
16.00 0.0958
17.00 0.0338
29
18.00 0.0056
Histogram:
m
P( x ) s
0.22
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 x
30
