Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dena Bank
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
3QFY12 541 393 187 % chg (qoq) 10.6 20.9 36.5 4QFY11 471 343 157 % chg (yoy) 27.0 38.6 62.3
`85 `111
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Dena Bank registered strong 62.3% yoy growth in its net profit to `255cr for 4QFY2012, despite significantly higher provisioning expenses, on account of higher growth in operating income and tax write back of `70cr. We recommend Buy on the stock. Business growth strong; Asset quality moderate: On a yoy basis, advances and deposits growth for the bank was above system-average at 26.5% and 20.2%, respectively. Loan growth was primarily driven by growth in MSME and retail portfolio, which increased by 22.2% and 18.7% yoy, respectively. Due to strong 34.2% yoy growth in current deposits, CASA deposits grew by healthy 16.9% yoy, but growth was below overall deposits growth at 20.2% yoy, which led to a 96bp yoy (44bp qoq) decline in CASA ratio to 34.5%. Yield on advances for the bank declined by 23bp qoq to 12.0% in 4QFY2012, while cost of deposits increased sequentially by 34bp, leading to a sequential decline of 12bp in reported NIM to 3.2%. Non-interest income grew by 5.9% yoy to `191cr, mostly due to strong 34.9% growth in fee income. The bank reported moderate asset quality. Gross NPA ratio improved to 1.67% in 4QFY2012 from 1.85% in 3QFY2012, while net NPA ratio improved to 1.01% from 1.10% in 3QFY2012. Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs), though dipped sequentially by 103bp, remained at healthy levels of 75.5%. Slippages (`244cr) increased on a sequential basis, with annualized slippage ratio coming at 2.2% in 4QFY2012 compared to 1.5% in 3QFY2012. The bank restructured advances worth `1,600cr during the quarter, which majorly included SEBs. The banks outstanding restructured book stood at `3,410cr (6.0% of loan book). Management has guided for no major advances (except for `200cr loan of state discom) to be in the restructuring pipeline. Outlook and valuation: Dena Bank structurally has a strong CASA franchise (at ~35% levels), aiding better NIMs than peers. We were cautious on the banks asset quality; however, so far, the banks asset quality has held up reasonably well compared to peers. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `111.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 55.2 11.5 12.1 21.2
3m (8.2) (5.4)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2011 1,763 60.3 612 19.6 2.8 18.3 4.6 0.8 1.0 20.9
FY2012 2,101 19.1 803 31.3 2.7 22.9 3.7 0.7 1.0 20.8
FY2013E 2,541 20.9 817 1.7 2.8 23.3 3.6 0.6 0.9 17.6
FY2014E 2,868 12.9 913 11.8 2.8 26.1 3.2 0.5 0.9 17.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,956 1,465 427 13 51 1,358 598 210 191 160 19 31 809 333 213 120 476 291 106 36 149 184 (70) 255 (38.2) 1,676 1,293 375 9 1,135 541 134 124 109 10 15 675 282 171 111 393 124 69 21 35 269 82 187 30.6 16.7 13.4 13.9 52.5 NA 19.6 10.6 57.1 54.2 47.0 93.5 104.8 19.8 18.2 24.7 8.2 20.9 134.1 55.2 74.1 322.7 (31.4) (185.7) 36.5 (6873)bp 1,407 1,085 314 5 4 936 471 181 180 118 0 62 652 309 200 109 343 124 121 19 (16) 219 62 157 28.4 39.0 35.0 36.1 182.2 1,138.5 45.0 27.0 16.4 5.9 34.9 6,803.6 (49.4) 24.1 7.9 6.4 10.8 38.6 135.1 (12.1) 91.2 (1,040.0) (15.9) (213.0) 62.3 (6658)bp
Actual 598 210 809 333 476 291 184 (70) 255
% chg 5.9 21.7 9.6 9.0 10.1 211.7 (45.6) (154.1) 22.2
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 56,693 77,167 73.5 7,273 19,317 26,590 34.5 11.5 8.9 7.4 12.0 3.2 41.2 957 1.7 572 1.0 75.5 2.2 0.5 47,928 68,339 70.1 5,554 18,293 23,848 34.9 11.6 8.5 7.1 12.2 3.3 41.8 885 1.9 524 1.1 76.6 1.5 0.4 18.3 12.9 334bp 30.9 5.6 11.5 (44)bp (7)bp 32bp 34bp (23)bp (12)bp (56)bp 8.0 (18)bp 9.1 (9)bp (103)bp 63bp 15bp 44,828 64,210 69.8 5,418 17,324 22,742 35.4 13.4 9.8 6.0 10.5 3.1 47.4 842 1.9 549 1.2 74.6 3.0 0.7 26.5 20.2 365bp 34.2 11.5 16.9 (96)bp (190)bp (91)bp 139bp 141bp 12bp (616)bp 13.6 (19)bp 4.1 (21)bp 91bp (87)bp (18)bp
26.4 25.1
13.2 18.6
18.0 20.1
15.7 13.0
26.5 20.2
35.4
35.2
35.6
34.9
64.0 62.0
34.5
34.0
5.0 -
3.0
1.3
1.4
1.5
2.2
1.9 1.2
1.9 1.1
1.9 1.2
1.9 1.1
1.7 1.0
543
0.5
0.5
72.0 70.0
1,291
1,297
1,298
1,307
47.4
46.1
44.0
41.8
41.2
40.0 38.0
1.4 1.3
1,342
1.5
1.5
1.5
Investment arguments
Structurally strong CASA
Dena Bank has maintained its CASA ratio at healthy ~35% levels on account of having higher concentration of its branches in rural and semi-urban areas (mainly in Gujarat and Maharashtra). In the past two years, the bank has maintained a CASA market share of 1.1%, despite competition from private banks. This structural advantage is reflected in the bank's cost of deposits at 7.1% in FY2012, which is one of the lowest amongst peers.
Coverage ratio
Source: Angel Research
FY2014 Var. (%) 4.7 5.5 4.8 3.3 6.0 19.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 Earlier estimates 2,747 619 3,366 1,491 1,875 549 1,326 430 896 Revised estimates 2,868 654 3,522 1,554 1,968 617 1,351 438 913 Var. (%) 4.4 5.6 4.6 4.2 5.0 12.3 1.9 1.9 1.9
Earlier estimates 2,427 576 3,003 1,296 1,707 504 1,203 390 812
Revised estimates 2,541 608 3,149 1,339 1,809 600 1,209 392 817
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Reco. Buy Neutral Accumulate Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral
CMP (`) 1,001 415 511 813 22 329 148 105 649 353 48 419 78 405 85 92 180 82 846 219 746 1,852 91 68 206 58 53
Tgt. price (`) 1,587 567 1,201 470 166 925 411 55 522 504 111 117 218 96 274 1,066 2,511 131 276 78 -
Upside (%) 58.5 10.9 47.8 42.6 12.3 42.6 16.3 14.4 24.6 24.4 30.7 27.0 21.6 18.0 25.1 43.0 35.6 43.9 34.3 33.6 -
FY2014E P/ABV (x) 1.4 1.0 2.9 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6
FY2014E Tgt. P/ABV (x) 2.2 3.3 1.9 2.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 -
FY2014E P/E (x) 7.2 7.3 14.4 10.0 5.8 7.9 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.7 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.3 3.4 4.3 6.9 3.0 3.8 4.1 2.6 4.3
FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 16.4 13.0 27.0 20.4 4.5 22.5 6.2 3.3 11.1 23.3 45.3 11.8 100.1 5.3 6.6 22.7 5.4 28.3 8.8 27.7 10.3 23.6 17.3 13.0 24.8 22.5 13.5
FY2014E RoA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5
FY2014E RoE (%) 20.3 14.5 22.1 16.0 17.5 23.3 17.6 16.0 18.2 16.9 17.2 16.4 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 18.2 13.9 18.6 14.3 18.1 19.1 17.1 15.4 17.5 16.5 13.7
IndBk
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); #Without adjusting for SASF
Mar-13
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 859 0.4 478 13.2 1,337 4.6 650 6.4 686 3.1 369 (14.8) 318 36.3 (42) (13.3) 360 78.5 FY09 1,064 23.9 430 (10.0) 1,495 11.8 768 18.1 726 5.8 185 (49.9) 541 70.5 119 21.9 423 17.5 FY10 1,100 3.3 589 36.9 1,689 13.0 848 10.4 841 15.7 154 (16.8) 687 26.8 176 25.6 511 21.0 FY11 1,763 60.3 534 (9.3) 2,297 36.0 1,073 26.6 1,224 45.6 326 111.7 898 30.8 287 31.9 612 19.6 FY12 2,101 19.1 582 9.1 2,683 16.8 1,155 7.6 1,528 24.9 562 72.7 966 7.6 163 16.9 803 31.3 FY13E 2,541 20.9 608 4.4 3,149 17.4 1,339 16.0 1,809 18.4 600 6.8 1,209 25.1 392 32.4 817 1.7 FY14E 2,868 12.9 654 7.5 3,522 11.8 1,554 16.0 1,968 8.8 617 2.7 1,351 11.8 438 32.4 913 11.8
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets Growth (%) FY08 287 1,514 33,943 22.6 395 1,066 1,437 38,642 3,533 505 10,283 23,024 25.8 412 885 38,642 22.9 FY09 287 1,884 43,051 26.8 52 1,391 1,796 48,461 4,982 875 12,473 28,878 25.4 405 847 48,461 25.4 FY10 287 2,315 51,344 19.3 46 1,516 2,079 57,587 4,355 759 15,694 35,462 22.8 407 908 57,587 18.8 FY11 333 3,323 64,210 25.1 176 1,516 1,281 70,838 4,721 687 18,769 44,828 26.4 404 1,429 70,838 23.0 FY12 350 4,127 77,167 20.2 217 3,664 1,863 87,388 5,195 356 23,028 56,693 26.5 407 1,710 87,388 23.4 FY13E 350 4,822 14.0 247 4,251 2,152 3,519 407 27,700 65,763 16.0 450 1,953 14.2 FY14E 350 5,592 14.0 282 4,846 2,471 4,011 464 31,656 74,970 14.0 498 2,227 14.1
87,970 100,286
99,792 113,827
99,792 113,827
Ratio Analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.5 1.1 1.4 0.3 1.7 1.1 2.8 1.9 0.9 (0.1) 1.0 25.0 25.6 2.4 0.4 2.0 0.1 2.1 0.9 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 24.8 24.0 2.1 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.1 0.8 2.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 1.0 24.4 23.5 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.0 2.3 0.8 3.1 1.7 1.4 0.4 1.0 21.9 20.9 2.7 0.7 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.2 1.0 20.4 20.8 2.7 0.6 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.6 2.7 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.9 20.2 17.6 2.7 0.6 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.6 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.9 19.9 17.0 6.8 1.6 1.2 5.8 1.4 1.4 4.8 1.0 2.4 4.6 0.8 2.6 3.7 0.7 3.5 3.6 0.6 3.5 3.2 0.5 4.1 12.5 51.8 1.0 14.7 62.2 1.2 17.8 2.0 18.3 2.2 22.9 3.0 23.3 3.0 26.1 3.5 83.4 103.4 122.3 142.1 164.1 2.4 0.9 2.2 0.8 60.7 2.1 1.1 2.9 0.5 48.3 1.8 1.2 2.2 0.2 78.6 1.9 1.2 2.1 0.4 74.5 1.7 1.0 1.6 0.3 75.5 2.6 1.1 1.8 0.6 75.5 3.4 1.3 1.7 0.5 75.0 39.2 67.8 11.1 6.8 34.8 67.1 12.1 6.8 36.0 69.1 12.8 8.2 35.5 69.8 13.4 9.8 34.5 73.5 17.6 9.7 33.4 74.8 17.9 9.9 33.1 74.8 18.1 9.9 2.5 48.7 1.0 25.6 2.5 51.4 1.0 24.0 2.1 50.2 1.0 23.5 2.8 46.7 1.0 20.9 2.7 43.0 1.0 20.8 2.8 42.5 0.9 17.6 2.8 44.1 0.9 17.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Dena Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
10