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The document presents sales data over eight weeks, including actual sales, moving averages, forecast errors, and various error metrics such as Mean Forecast Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. It also discusses weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasts with specified weights. The overall analysis provides insights into forecasting accuracy and trends in sales data.

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22 views12 pages

Holt

The document presents sales data over eight weeks, including actual sales, moving averages, forecast errors, and various error metrics such as Mean Forecast Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. It also discusses weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing forecasts with specified weights. The overall analysis provides insights into forecasting accuracy and trends in sales data.

Uploaded by

photosmou16248
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Week Sales MA(3) Forecast Error Absolute Square Percentage Error

1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45 41 4 4 16 8.88888888888889
5 38 43 -5 5 25 -13.157894736842
6 43 41 2 2 4 4.65116279069768
7 39 42 -3 3 9 -7.6923076923077
8 38 40 -2 2 4 -5.2631578947368
Sum -4 16 58 -12.5733086443

MFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
MPE
Absolute Week Actual Sales MA(3) F/E Absolute Square A/P/E
1 39
2 44
3 40
8.888889 4 45 41 4 4 16 8.8888889
13.15789 5 38 43 -5 5 25 13.157895
4.651163 6 43 41 2 2 4 4.6511628
7.692308 7 39 42 -3 3 9 7.6923077
5.263158 8 38 40 -2 2 4 5.2631579
39.65341 Sum -4 16 58 39.653412

Mean Forecast Error -0.8


-0.8 Mean Absoture Error 3.2
3.2 Mean Square Error 11.6
11.6 Mean Absotute Percentage Error 7.9306824
7.930682 Mean Percentage Error -2.514662
-2.514662
P/E

8.8888889
-13.15789
4.6511628
-7.692308
-5.263158
-12.57331 0
Week Sales MA FE ABS SQR ABS/P/E P/E
1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45 41 4 4 16 8.888889 8.888889
5 38 43 -5 5 25 13.15789 -13.15789
6 43 41 2 2 4 4.651163 4.651163
7 39 42 -3 3 9 7.692308 -7.692308
8 38 40 -2 2 4 5.263158 -5.263158
SUM -4 16 58 39.65341 -12.57331
Weights: 0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1(Rece
Week Sales WMA(4)
1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45
5 38 42.7
6 43 41.1
7 39 41.6
8 38 40.6 Week Sales WM/A
1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45
5 38 42.7
6 43 41.1
7 39 41.6
8 38 40.6
Weights: 0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1(Recent)
Week Sales
1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45
5 38 42.7
6 43 41.1
7 39 41.6
8 38 40.6

Weights: 0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1(Recent)
Week Sales Forecast
1 39 39
2 44 39
3 40 40
4 45 40 a=0.2
5 38 41 a*At+(1-a)Ft)
6 43 40.4
7 39 40.92
8 38 40.536
Week Sales Forecast
1 39 39
2 44 39
3 40 40
4 45 40
5 38 41
6 43 40.4
7 39 40.92
8 38 40.536
Week Sales Forecast
1 39 39.000
2 44 39.000
3 40 40.000
4 45 40.000
5 38 41.000
6 43 40.400
7 39 40.920
8 38 40.536

a=0.2
a*At+(1-a)Ft)
a 0.2
b 0.2 level=a*at+(1-a)*Lt-1+Tt-1
Trend=B*(Lt-Lt-1)+(1-B)*T1
Period Actual Level Trend Forecast Error
1 155
2 180 180 25 Period
3 260 216 27.2 205 55 1
4 560 306.56 39.872 243.2 316.8 2
5 160 309.1456 32.41472 346.432 -186.432 3
6 185 310.2483 26.1523072 341.5603 -156.5603 4
5
6
level=a*at+(1-a)*Lt-1+Tt-1
Trend=B*(Lt-Lt-1)+(1-B)*T1-t

Actual Level Trend Forecast


155
180 180 25
260 216 27.2 205
560 306.56 39.872 243.2
160 309.1456 32.41472 346.432
185 310.2483 26.15231 341.5603
Period Actual Level Trend Forecast
1 155
2 180 180 25
3 260 216 27.2 205
4 560 306.56 39.872 243.2
5 160 309.1456 32.41472 346.432
6 185 310.2483 26.15231 341.5603

a 0.2
b 0.2
level=a*at+(1-a)*Lt-1+Tt-1
Trend=B*(Lt-Lt-1)+(1-B)*T1-t

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