C-MORE Schofield Lecture 1

Rise of the Machines
Themes
-Some of the new technologies your generation will have
-There are MANY UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS
-Automation is coming
Sunday, July 1, 12
GSFC, NASA
Natural Variability: Where do you put a mooring?
Where do you drive the ship? When should you be out there?
Color variability at multiple scales
around Tasmania from CZCS
(winds? currents? bottom topography?)
Simulations of required number of
moorings to predict THE SIGN of
cross shelf carbon transport
Sunday, July 1, 12
Prior to Deployment After to Deployment
Rumsfeld Unknown unknowns
Sunday, July 1, 12
Rumsfeld Unknown unknowns
Sunday, July 1, 12
Scott
Glenn
Josh
Kohut
Oscar
Schofield
HOW WE ARE TRAINED TO GO TO SEA
Sunday, July 1, 12
Ocean is hard to sample
Sunday, July 1, 12
Technology will rescue us!!!!
Sunday, July 1, 12
My Lab (Coastal Ocean Observation Lab: COOL)
Sunday, July 1, 12
Satellites
-Thousands of
satellites
-After the ships
one of the great
technical
revolutions for
oceanography
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Autosub
Southampton Oceanography Center UK
Hugin
Kongsberg Simrad, Norway
Martin-600
Maridan, Denmark
Explorer family,
ISE research, Canada
Odyssey,
Bluefin Robotics, USA
Thanks to Gwynn Griffiths
AUVs: They can be big
Sunday, July 1, 12
AUVs: They can be small
Slocum gliders
Seaglider
Spray
C-Scout
Mauve
Gavia
REMUS
Thanks to Gwynn Griffiths
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Longitude
(~2km)
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

0
15
1E10 bioluminscent photons/s
Sunday, July 1, 12
Longitude
(~2km)
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

0
15
Sunday, July 1, 12
Longitude
(~2km)
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

0
15
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

Latitude
(~300m)
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
The Communication Revolution
Darwins Odyssey
Sunday, July 1, 12
Darwins Odyssey
Sunday, July 1, 12
Darwins Odyssey
Sunday, July 1, 12
Darwins Odyssey
Sunday, July 1, 12
Darwins Odyssey
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
MVCO/CBLAST
S
W
06
L
aT
T
E
E
S
P
reS
S
O
/ M
A
R
C
O
O
S Delaware
N
E
N
A

C
u
b
a to
G
ran
d
B
an
ks
(n
ested
w
ith
in
H
yC
O
M
o
r M
ercato
r)
M
A
B
-G
o
M
(H
atteras to
H
alifax)
Hudson River
Nested Ocean Models
+
=
S4DVAR procedure
Lagrange function
Lagrange multiplier
At extrema of , we require:
S4DVAR procedure:
(1) Choose an
(2) Integrate NLROMS and compute J
(3) Integrate ADROMS to get
(4) Compute
(5) Use a descent algorithm to determine a down gradient correction to that will yield a
smaller value of J
(6) Back to (2) until converged
( )
( )
1
1
0 ( ) 0
0 0
0 (0) (0) 0 &
(0)
0 ( ) 0 . .
( )
i
i i
i
T
T i
i im m m
i
b
d L
NLROMS
dt
d L
ADROMS
dt
L
coupling of NL ADROMS
L
i c of ADROMS
|
= =
|
|
| [
= = | | j
| \ )
|
= =
|
|
|
= =
| |
x
N x F
N
H O Hx y
x x
B x x
x
x
1
( ) ( )
N
T i
i i i
i
d
L J
dt =
[
= + | j
\ )
x
x N x F
( ) i i t = F F ( ) i i t x x
( ) ( ) i i t i t
L
(0) b = x x
[0, ] t
[ , 0] t (0)
( )
1
(0) (0)
(0)
b
J
=
B x x
x
(0) x
Nested Models
Data Assimilation
4-D Forecasts
+
=
3-D Nowcasts
Remote Sensing Robots
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sargasso Sea
Front
Sargasso Sea
Front
Sargasso Sea
Front
Cold Core
Eddy
Cold Core
Eddy
Cold Core
Eddy
Warm Core
Remnant
Warm Core
Remnant
Warm Core
Remnant
Lets say you are hunting whales
Knowledge of the environment will give you a tactical advantage
Knowledge of future environment will give you a bigger tactical advantage
No in situ data
into the model
BSP in situ data
into the model
Gliders (4) in situ data
into the model
Sunday, July 1, 12
Science enabled by social networking
Sunday, July 1, 12
Network allows for construction of ad hoc networks when needed
Contributed Assets:

HF Radar Networks
USF, USM
Gliders
iRobot, Mote, Rutgers,
SIO, UDel, USF, Navy
Drifters & Profilers
Horizon Marine, Navy
Satellite Imagery
CSTARS, UDel
Ocean Forecasts
Navy, NCSU
Data/Web Services
ASA, Rutgers, SIO

USM HFR validation of SABGOM Forecast
in region with satellite detected oil slicks
Sunday, July 1, 12
Data and models for situations where the University does not allow
me to send graduate students
Hurricane Irene
August 2011
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Get off
the
damn
beach!!
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Two Gliders
Deployed by MARACOOS
in Hurricane Irene

RU16
Deployed for EPA.
Map bottom dissolved
oxygen.
Provided data on
mixing during storm.

RU23
Deployed for MARACOOS.
Map subsurface T/S
structure for fisheries.
Damaged early - drifter
Recovered by fisherman
Provided data on inertial
currents during storm.

Sunday, July 1, 12
14
33
29
105
60
salinity
% oxygen
temperature
55
55
0
0
55
d
e
p
t
h

d
e
p
t
h

d
e
p
t
h

8/12 9/07 date
26 0
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene
Sunday, July 1, 12
Winds assuming warm temperatures Winds using glider temperatures
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
CDOM
Backscatter
Ed491 (nm)
20
10
0
<10 25 >35
% phytoplankton (440
nm)
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

5 10 15 20
5 10 15 20
<27 30 >33
20
10
0
20
10
0
% detritus (440 nm)
<35 50 >60
% CDOM (440 nm)
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

Distance Offshore
P
h
y
t
o
p
l
a
n
k
t
o
n

C
D
O
M

D
e
t
r
i
t
u
s

Phytoplankton communities
Optical data collected by gliders
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
weather
mixing
actual
water column
physics
Mean
water column
hydrography
2
nd
and higher
trophic levels
phytoplankton
OPTICAL
PROPERTIES
sediment
CDOM
Detritus
light
nutrients
rivers

In situ
Acoustic
Field
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Diverse funding with an evolving suite of questions
1996-2001
Local scale observatories
SST
CHL
CHL
2001-2006
Regional scale observatories
2006-2011
Large marine ecosystem
observatories
Upwelling, hypoxia &
coastal predictive skill
Shelf transport, land/ocean
communication
Ecosystem dynamics, climate
scale mediated change
Schofield et al 2002
Glenn & Schofield 2003
Schofield et al. 2011 Glenn & Schofield 2009
Sunday, July 1, 12
Phase development: The nearshore coastal system
Question driving science deployment: Are humans causing coastal hypoxia?
Hypoxia
& Anoxia
Sunday, July 1, 12
Phase development: The nearshore coastal system
Question driving science deployment: Are humans causing coastal hypoxia?
Hypoxia
& Anoxia
Scott
Glenn
Oscar
Schofield
Josh
Kohut
Robert
Chant
John
Wilkin
Sunday, July 1, 12
40N
74W 75W
39N
Temperature
o
C
19 20 21 22 24
July 6, 98 - AVHRR
Field
Station
LEO
40N
74W 75W
39N
Field
Station
Chlor-a (mg/m
3
)
.1 .3 .5 1 2 4
July 11, 98 - SeaWiFS
LEO
Historical
Hypoxia/Anoxia
Sunday, July 1, 12
A)
1 m s
-1
North
Barnegat
delta
Cape May
delta
LEO
delta
10.8
12.2
13.6
15.0
16.4
17.8
19.2
20.6
22.0
23.4
24.8
Temp (
o
C)
w
i
n
d

D) 8/5/93
CTD Transect
B)
C)
E)
F) CODAR & SST 7/98
Figure 6
Song et al(JGR) 2002
Sunday, July 1, 12
30 X 30 km LEO CPSE
An Integrated Observatory
Sunday, July 1, 12
Month Long Experimental Effort
2001 Real-time Ensemble Forecasts
Sunday, July 1, 12
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
July, 2001
18 19 20 21
2
4
6
8
10
12
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

Thermistor
2
4
6
8
10
12
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

July, 2001
18 19 20 21
HR COAMPS / ROMS
KPP
2
4
6
8
10
12
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

July, 2001
18 19 20 21
MY2.5
Real-time validation of the ensemble forecasts
-In an observationally rich
environment, ensemble forecasts
can be compared to real-time data
to assess which model is closer to reality
and try to understand why.
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Shipboard surveys
Sunday, July 1, 12
N
o
r
t
h

S
o
u
t
h

1
5
m

6
North
Fluorometer
South, offshore flow
Adaptive Sampling of Resolved Scales- Shipboard & AUV surveys
North
Velocity
Sunday, July 1, 12
D
e
p
t
h

(
m
)

1
12
6
60
0
30
Time (hr)
A
b
s
o
r
p
t
i
o
n

a
t

4
4
0

n
m

(
m
-
1
)
1.0
0
Tidal cycle Upwelling
Optical profiler deployed on LEO-15 guest port
Nerd summer camp
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Aug 5, 2012
Sunday, July 1, 12
r
2
= .95
r
2
= .74
POC represents potentially
182 mol oxygen/kg
Upwelling can account
For spatially distribution
of recurrent upwelling eddies
?
Sunday, July 1, 12
What is happening in the northern zone?
Science focus Land-Ocean: How does the dynamics in the physical
oceanography influence the transport and transformation of the
particulate and dissolved matter in coastal buoyant plumes?
Geyer and Fong
Downwelling Upwelling
Southern flowing
turbid plume
Eastern offshore flowing
shallow turbid plume
Sunday, July 1, 12
Input of organic matter is pulsed to coastal system as floods and punctuated
tidal squirts. Example, a tidal bore as it flows past the R/V Cape Hatteras
Salinity
Sunday, July 1, 12
Wind data from NOAA NDBC station at Ambrose Light
HF RADAR tracking and dye labeling of plume
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
0
1
2
3
4
5
4/17/2005 4/18/2005 4/19/2005
Date
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
4/10/2005 4/11/2005 4/12/2005 4/13/2005
Date
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
v
i
t
y

(
m
g
C
/
m
^
3
/
h
r
)

New Plume
Old Plume
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
%

c
a
r
b
o
n

f
i
x
e
d

> 20 um
2 - 20 um
< 2 um
Stephanopyxis sp.
Thalassiosira
Lauderia
Skeletonema
Sunday, July 1, 12
Ocean
Hudson Bay
Salinity
P
e
r
c
e
n
t

O
x
y
g
e
n

S
a
t
u
r
a
t
i
o
n

u
n
d
e
r
s
a
t
u
r
a
t
e
d

s
u
p
e
r
s
t
a
u
r
a
t
e
d

LATTE April 2005
Sunday, July 1, 12
>20 m particulate trace metals and phosphorus - Ag, Al, Cr, Cu, Fe, P, Pb
s
a
l
i
n
i
t
y

50 ng L
-1
(Al, Fe, P g L
-1
;
Ag x 10, Al x 5, P x 10)
Sunday, July 1, 12
Freshwater Plume Moves Out Across the Shelf:
Hudson Shelf Valley
Sunday, July 1, 12
LaTTE 2005 -Post Injection 2 Final shipboard survey
After luring the Cape Hatteras offshore.
The survey began on the Highway.
We were near the glider when it
surfaced. We saw currents ripping
southward in a 10 m thick layer of
freshwater along the highway --
perhaps the most significant
freshwater transport we saw all
week.
Perhaps the most perplexing to
me is the Highway and why there
has been a lack of a strong coastally
trapped flow this week.
--- Bob Chant aboard the Cape
Hatteras, April 21, 2005
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12
Castaleo et al. 2008, 2010
MAB stratication
dominates the
hydrography of the shelf.
Temperature stratication
extreme, 25 to 8 degrees in a
only three meters
Salinity gradients show
inshore and offshore
gradients
Sunday, July 1, 12
january june december

3
1
c
h
l
o
r
o
p
h
y
l
l

(
m
g

m
-
3
)
4*10
5
1*10
5
p
h
o
t
o
s
y
n
t
h
e
t
i
c
a
l
l
y
a
v
a
i
l
a
b
l
e

r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n
EOF1, The Winter Bloom
3
1
c
h
l
o
r
o
p
h
y
l
l

(
m
g
/
m
3
)
p
h
o
t
o
s
y
n
t
h
e
t
i
c
a
l
l
y
a
v
a
i
l
a
b
l
e
r
a
d
i
a
t
i
o
n

4*10
5
1*10
5
january december
c
h
l
o
r
o
p
h
y
l
l

(
m
g

m
-
3
)
january june december
Month
25
5
s
e
a

s
u
r
f
a
c
e

t
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
2
0
EOF2
EOF2, The Spring and Fall Bloom
c
h
l
o
r
o
p
h
y
l
l

(
m
g
/
m
3
)
2
0
s
e
a

s
u
r
f
a
c
e
t
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
25
5
january december
Mode 1: Largest and most recurrent
bloom. Occurs during the dimmest
months of the year which is interesting.
Mode 2: The canonical spring bloom
which occurs prior to strong shelf
stratication.
SST PAR
Schofield et al. 2008
Sunday, July 1, 12
Yi et al. submitted
% of Variance explained by the two major
EOF modes as a function of space
EOF1: Winter (Nov-Feb)
EOF2: Spring (March-June)

Figure 3. EOFs of Chlorophyll in MAB. Left is the first two modes of EOFs, right is
percentage of the local variance explained by each mode.

EOF 1
EOF 2
%EOF 1
%EOF 2
a b
c d
Two major EOF modes
Yi et al CSR (2011)
Dynamics in phytoplankton variance is described by 2 modes. Mode 1 occurs in the winter on the inner shelf.
Mode 2 occurs in spring on the outer shelf. Summer phytoplankton explain little of the shelf-wide variance
however is extremely important to the nearshore coastal ecosystems
Sunday, July 1, 12
M
a
x
i
m
u
m

w
i
n
t
e
r

c
h
l
o
r
o
p
h
y
l
l
c
o
n
c
e
n
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
Percent of stormy days
5
0
20 40
Sunday, July 1, 12
Numerical experiment: Measured wind and no wind in Zone 1
No wind condition, later bloom, larger bloom during darkest winter
months, but integrated productivity over the winter is smaller by ~20%
Yi et al submitted
Sunday, July 1, 12
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Sunday, July 1, 12
Machines have improved
A technicians solution
in integrating the observatory
components
Sunday, July 1, 12
components
People need to sleep
and are fragile
Humans become the
bottle neck for
collecting data bytes
Sunday, July 1, 12
components
People need to sleep
and are fragile
Humans become the
bottle neck for
collecting data bytes
Scientists need time
to think
Oscar tries to
reintegrate into
society after the field
experiments
Sunday, July 1, 12
The OOI Observing System Experiment (OSE)
Nov 2 to Nov 13 2009
Science Community Workshop 1 5
Observatory (simulated) data
Virtual Ocean
Design, Testing and Deploy
Models
Data Assimilation
Data
Analysis
Science Questions & Drivers
~100 m
~3 km
Sensor &
Platform
Data Synthesis: Nowcast & Data Impact
Idea of Test
(May 2009)
Virtual Test
(Sep 2009)
Wet Test
(Nov 2009)
Sunday, July 1, 12
Scientists were distributed throughout the country & interacted in real-time
Community Blog
Data Portal
Sunday, July 1, 12
Weather Forecasts
Sunday, July 1, 12
5 different
satellite
sensors
Sunday, July 1, 12
Model A Model B
Model C
Model D
5 ocean numerical
models run in
forecast mode:
2 versions of ROMS
2 versions of HOPs
1 version of POM
Sunday, July 1, 12
Ensemble
Model
SST Obs.
Scientists could compare observations (single platform or means) with models (individual or means)
Sunday, July 1, 12
The same for in situ measurements
Model A Model B Model C
Model D
Sunday, July 1, 12
Ensemble mean
model
Variance in u velocity
component
Variance in v velocity
component
Sunday, July 1, 12
Known constraints (slow
0.5 knot, Battery, shipping
lanes)
Uncertain constraints (time-
varying 3D currents)
Operate autonomously &
re-plan daily
From A to B in the
shortest time
Follow a time-varying
feature (shelf-slope
salinity intrusion)
Sunday, July 1, 12
Scientic
community
Marine
operators
Sunday, July 1, 12
Distributed decision
making
using live web
service tools
Sunday, July 1, 12
Increase model resolution Reduce forecast error
How well
did we do?
Sunday, July 1, 12
26
Science
Agents
Science Event Manager
Processes alerts and
Prioritizes response observations
ASPEN
Schedules observations on EO-1
EO-1 Flight Dynamics
Tracks, orbit, overflights,
momentum management
Science
Alerts
Observation
Requests
Updates to
onboard plan
Science
Campaigns
Scientists
Hyperion
on EO-1
Sunday, July 1, 12
Hyperion on EO-1
7.5 km by 100 km
(30 m resolution)
Sunday, July 1, 12
Sunday, July 1, 12

C-MORE Schofield Lecture 1

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Rise of the Machines

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