Building Climate Resilience in Urban Infrastructure planning

Implementation of CDTA 7890-BAN

Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns of Bangladesh

CDTA Team
Dhaka Workshop 7th Feb, 2013

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) of the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) established under the Multi-donor Climate Investment Fund (CIF)

CTIIP: Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project

Capacity Development TA (CDTA 7980)

CDTA

Pre-feasibility studies to strengthen climate-resilient urban water, drainage, and sanitation projects in coastal towns.
PPTA on Preparing the Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project

PPTA

feasibility study and a project design with preliminary engineering that the government and ADB have agreed upon.
Project Design Advance (PDA) ensure project readiness

CDA

advanced preparatory actions such as detailed design work, safeguards finalization, and bidding document preparation

Objectives
Strengthened capacity to develop climate-resilient urban water, drainage, and sanitation projects in coastal towns.

Guide the project preparatory phase for the Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project TA will enable improved design of urban infrastructure projects in coastal towns Climate-proofing development projects Also consider non-structural soft measures

Study Coastal Towns

Four types of primary physical problems saline water intrusion; drainage congestion; extreme climate events; and changes in coastal morphology
Coastal Zone Issues (NAPA, 2005)
Area Population

Amtali
Pirojpur

8.92 sq. km
29.50 sq. km

17, 311
21,200 60,056

Galachipa 3.39 sq. km

Factors influencing key climate vulnerabilities of the coastal zone

Exposure to Tropical Cyclones & surge Sea-level rise (relative sea-level rise) Heavy rainfall events (pre-monsoon and monsoon season) Climate over the GBM basin & over the coastal zone itself (particularly rainfall) Land Subsidence (~ 2 10 mm/yr; CEGIS, DU in south central coast) Tidal effects: accretion and erosion (NatCom,2002 Bhola area: accretion 329.49, erosion 69.63 sq. km. Upstream river conditions (changing morphology due to sediment loads)

Overview of CDTA Work

Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios in Selected Costal Towns
Climate Change modeling Hydrodynamic modeling

Assessment of Impacts on the Water, Drainage and Sanitation Sector Caused by Climate Change
Assessment to establish base-line conditions Projections of future growth and development

Identification of structural and other options

Review of ongoing activities Adaptation Options based on results and consultations

Strengthening Capacity and Awareness of key stakeholders

Consultations, Workshops at Dhaka/Pourashavas Capacity building trainings for LGED engineers

Distinctive features
Community with a highly adaptive temperament 100fold reduction in deaths due to Tropical cyclones since the 1970s

Apply climate information to practical planning at the lowest level very specific balance of scales in using information Points of departure macro to local levels, optimize use of secondary information, practical approach (model results as guidance evidence based), incremental measures evolved with participation Barrier availability of data

Approach
Increasing Climate Risks
Water Supply
Urban water Issues

Present Climate Impacts due to climate variations and extremes Quantity and Sufficiency Quality: Salinity & contamination

Future Climate Change

Impact on water availability, demand and quality

Drainage

Adequacy of Existing Response to CC Systems water scenarios of extreme logging and its duration rainfall, sea-levels Existing condition Adaptation deficits Estimate future stress Fill gaps build climate resilience

Sanitation & Health

Schematic diagram showing the steps within the modeling framework

CCSM4 CMIP5 Monsoon Rainfall over the GBM basin

1850-2000 8-10 mm/day 2030-2060 8-11 mm/day 2070-2100 9-12 mm/day

Rainfall mm/day

CDTA Team, Annamalai, 2012

Annual& Mean& Temperature& changes& Bangladesh& in&

Bangladesh Future Climate Change Scenario

Annual& Precipitation& departure& Bangladesh& in&

! !

1.5 to 4 C increase in temperatures by the 2050s is projected Increasing temperatures shows as a consistent signal with a tendency for higher increases in the eastern parts of the coastal zone. Increasing rainfall during the monsoon season (about 10-15%) in the coastal area representing the three project Pourashavas. Cyclone frequencies not indicating increases Global sea-level projections used

a )

b)

Regional climate model generated climate change scenarios for southern coastal zone (a) Rainfall and temperatures (b) 1-day rainfall maxima. Scenarios are for baseline and three future emission levels

Studies reviewed Climate Change Cell Department of Environment Studies Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) World Bank - Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) Islamic Development Bank Fael Khair Program Ganges Barrage Feasibility and Detail Design Coastal Embankment Improvement Program (CEIP)

Introduction
Several mathematical models of the complex river systems, estuaries and northern Bay of Bengal have been applied for different national projects and programs. Three selected coastal towns - Pirojpur, Golachipa and Amtoli are situated within the South west Regional Model of the river and estuarine system that draws Bay of Bengal influence from the Bay of Bengal Model Results.

Bay of Bengal Model applied in national projects

Bed Level, mPWD

Chandpur Bangladesh

India Bay of Bengal

Myanmar

Vishakahpatnam

Gwa Bay

Adopted from IWM Reports and Papers

Bay of Bengal Model applied in national projects

Adopted from IWM Reports and Papers

Bay of Bengal Model applied in national projects

Adopted from IWM Reports and Papers

River Models applied in national projects

Southeast region model

Southwest region model

Eastern-hill region model

Adopted from IWM Reports and Papers

South West Regional Model

Adopted from IWM Reports and Papers

 For water supply and drainage purpose, results from these modeling exercises have been analyzed to derive hydrodynamic condition that includes river or tidal creeks water levels, and salinity intrusion levels and locations for the baseline and projected climate change scenarios in this region. These results at different temporal scales have been used as the boundary condition for the urban drainage models of each township developed under the present TA project.

Summary of useful results Tidal hydraulics

Climate change induced changes in hydrology and hydraulics

Design data- Tidal consideration and climate change

Salinity levels including impacts of climate change scenarios

Storm surge impacts

Urban Drainage Modeling

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

EPA SWMM used for UDM

SWMM is a distributed, dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas.

SWMM
Storm Water Management Model

Pirojpur Pourashava

Calibration of model at Pirojpur

3

Simulated water level (m)

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 2.5

(b)

y = 0.881x + 0.320 R = 0.965

Simulated water level (m)

DamudorVarani Junction

Observed water level(m)

(b)

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 1 2
Observed water level(m)

y = 0.955x + 0. R = 0.933

Simulated water level (m)

DamudorShashanghat Junction

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

(b)

DamudorKumarKhali Junction

y = 1.023x - 0.250 R = 0.913

Observed water level(m)

Overtopped Sections

3
2 44

Figure 9.17: Overtopped sections of the natural canals in Pirojpur Pourashava.

Amtali Pourashava

Calibration at Amtali

Basuki Khal

Simulated water level (m)

4 3 2 1 0

y = 0.850x + 0.322 R = 0.874

0
(b)

2
Observed water level(m)

Figure 9.17: Overtopped sections of the natural canals in Pirojpur Pourashava

Overtopped sections

Golachipa Pourashava

Overtopped sections

Figure 9.19: Overtopped sections of the natural canals in Golachipa Pourashava.

Calibration at Golachipa

Branch Khal to meet lohalia river

Simulated water level (m)

3 2 1 0

y = 2.801x - 2.763 R = 0.785

0.5
(b)

1.5
Observed water level(m)

2.5

Depth-Inundation map for Pirojpur

Baseline

Climate Change, 2050

Depth Inundation map for Amtali

Baseline

Climate Change, 2050

Depth Inundation map for Golachipa

Baseline

Climate Change, 2050

Conclusions
Using the design storm conditions (10yr-2hr rainfall) flooding has been observed for many places in both baseline and climate change conditions. For Pirojpur Pourashava, the main canal, Damudar Khal is not overtopped under the design condition. However, several sections of Chanmari Khal,Varani Khal, Palpara Khal and Shashanghat Khal are found overflowed to banks. For Amtali Pourashava, it has found that the main canal, Basuki Khal has not overflowed for the design storm. However, other three major canals of Amtali Pourashava, namely, Khal connecting M.U. secondary school south side to Mofiz Talukders house, Khal connecting Badhghat Chowrasta to Shantinagar Akhrabari, and Khal connecting Pachim Chowra (WAPDA sluice) to R&H box culvert Chowra are overtopped. For Golachipa, some sections of the three nmajor canals, namely, Main Khal, Heliport Khal Arambag Khal are overtopped for the design storm.

UDM Recommendations
high resolution DEM is necessary to delineate catchment of the study area. Total station survey is necessary to construct high resolution DEM for the study areas, particularly important in the context of changed datum system and observed land subsidence. Continuous hourly rainfall and water level data of various major canals should be collected for a number of storms during the monsoon season of the study area. It is also essential to install automatic water level and flow measuring devices in the major canals and operate for the whole season. Automatic rain gauges should be installed to collect hourly rainfall data during the storms.

Amtali

Amtali Adaptation Cost 2050 (BDT in Lac)

Galachipa

Galachipa Adaptation Cost 2050 (BDT in Lac)

Pirojpur

Pirojpur Adaptation Cost 2050 (BDT in Lac)

thank you