PRESENTATION ON MARINE PRODUCTS WITH RESPECT TO VISAKHAPATNAM

PRESENTED BY: Pushpdev rai Gitam Institute Of International Business

OBJECTIVE
• To observe the trend of marine food industry in respect of a country (India) ,as a region/state (Visakhapatnam) and a domestic company (Devi sea foods Pvt ltd). • To observe the impact of parameters like: Exchange rate, Oil prices and Recession on Marine food industry.

INTRODUCTION
  MPEDA: Established in 1972 Covering fisheries of all kinds, increasing exports, specifying standards, processing, marketing, extension and training in various aspects of the industry. 1960: Initially concentrated in dried marine products 1961: Exports of frozen items. Exports were confined mainly to neighboring countries: Sri lanka, Singapore, Myanmar etc. 2000- 07 Concentrated to developing countries: Japan , U.S. & E.U. Built up capacity : Kerala is leading

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METHODOLOGY
• Regression analysis: Linear to observe individual impact of oil prices & exchange rates. • Multiple : Impact of both factors on absolute value of exports. • Moving averages method & Exponential smoothing : to estimate the production of Visakhapatnam region & domestic company Devi sea foods.

ANALYSIS (INDIA)
• 2. Regression analysis: Linear Regression Aim: to observe the relation between exchange rates (X) and value of exports (y).

Regression model: E (y) = A0 + A1X = -249.78*X + 18417.8 R- square: 0.213518 2. Independent variable: oil prices E (y) = A0 + A1X = 59.831*X + 4438.0 R- square: 0.753632 3. Multiple Regression: Y = a + A1*X1 + A2*X2 + ... + Ap*Xp Y = -278.891 + 95.088X1 + 67.6929X2 Adjusted R- square: 0.619

VISAKHAPATNAM Moving averages = ∑ (most recent n data values) / n AIM: To observe the fluctuations between the estimated and the actual frequencies
Moving Average
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Data Point

Value

Actual Forecast

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING : Ft+1 = aY1 + (1 – a) Ft • AIM: To forecast the future value by considering the actual of previous period and analyzing the trend. • For April 2008: 0.2(2762) + (1 – 0.8) 2180 = 2296.4

Exponential Smoothing
6000 Value 4000 2000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Data Point Actual Forecast

DEVI SEA FOODS • MOVING AVERAGE:
Moving Average
10,000,000 8,000,000 Value 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Data Point Actual Forecast

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING • Ft+1 = aY1 + (1 – a) Ft • April 2008: 0.2(3425762) + (1 – 0.2) 1275017 = 1705166
Exponential Smoothing 10,000,000 Value 5,000,000 1 5 9 13 17 21 Data Point Actual Forecast

OUR FINDINGS
• Exchange rates and oil prices do have impact. • Visakhapatnam demand fluctuations: climatic conditions and depending on good catch. • Devi sea foods impact: Recession • Total quantity 2006 – 07: 4386252 tonnes • 2007 – 08 : 3671188

SUGGESTIONS
• Improve harvesting techniques in order to cultivate white Shrimp (vannamei) whose international demand is very high. • Government and state assistance to “Deep sea fishing”. • Need improvement in preserving and maintaining hygienic conditions while exporting. • Government support in terms of subsidies during exchange rate fluctuations.

THANK YOU….!!!