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Risk Measurement
Chapters 10 and 11
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 2
The Paradox of Credit
Lending is not a buy and holdprocess.
To move to the efficient frontier, maximize
return for any given level of risk or
equivalently, minimize risk for any given
level of return.
This may entail the selling of loans from the
portfolio. Paradox of Credit Fig. 10.1.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 3
Return
The Ef f icient
Frontier
A
B
C
Risk
0
Figure 10.1 The paradox of credit.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 4
Managing the Loan Portfolio According to the
Tenets of Modern Portfolio Theory
Improve the risk-return tradeoff by:
Calculating default correlations across assets.
Trade the loans in the portfolio (as conditions
change) rather than hold the loans to maturity.
This requires the existence of a low transaction
cost, liquid loan market.
Inputs to MPT model: Expected return, Risk
(standard deviation) and correlations
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 5
The Optimum Risky Loan
Portfolio Fig. 10.2
Choose the point on the efficient frontier
with the highest Sharpe ratio:
The Sharpe ratio is the excess return to risk
ratio calculated as:
p
f
p
rR
o
AZ
=0.1174.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 22
Joint Loan Values
Table 11.1 shows the joint migration probabilities.
Calculate the portfolios value under each of the
64 possible credit migration possibilities (using
methodology in Chap.6) to obtain the values in
Table 11.3.
Can draw the portfolio value distribution using the
probabilities in Table 11.1 and the values in Table
11.3.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 23
Credit VAR Measures
Calculate the mean using the values in
Table 11.3 and the probabilities in Tab 11.1.
Mean =
Variance =
Mean=$213.63 million
Standard deviation= $3.35 million
i
i
i
V p
=
64
1
2
64
1
) ( Mean V p
i
i
i
=
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 24
Calculating the 99
th
percentile
credit VAR under normal
distribution
2.33 x $3.35 = $7.81 million
Benefits of diversification. The BBB loans
credit VAR (alone) was $6.97million.
Combining 2 loans with correlations=0.3,
reduces portfolio risk considerably.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 25
Calculating the Credit VAR
Under the Actual Distribution
Adding up the probabilities (from Table 11.1) in
the lowest valuation region in Table 11.3, the 99
th
percentile credit VAR using the actual (not
normal) distribution is $204.4 million.
Unexpected Losses=$213.63m - $204.4m = $9.23
million (>$7.81m).
If the current value of the portfolio = $215m, then
Expected Losses=$215m - $213.63m = $1.37m.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 26
CreditMetrics with More Than 2
Loans in the Portfolio
Cannot calculate joint transition matrices
for more than 2 loans because of
computational difficulties: A 5 loan
portfolio has over 32,000 joint transitions.
Instead, calculate risk of each pair of loans,
as well as standalone risk of each loan.
Use Monte Carlo simulation to obtain
20,000 (or more) possible asset values.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 27
Monte Carlo Simulation
First obtain correlation matrix (for each pair of
loans) using the systematic risk component of
equity prices. Table 11.5
Randomly draw a rating for each loan from that
loans distribution (historic rating migration)
using the asset correlations.
Value the portfolio for each draw.
Repeat 20,000 times! New algorithms reduce
some of the computational requirements.
The 99
th
% VAR based on the actual distribution is
the 200
th
worst value out of the 20,000 portfolio
values.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 28
MPT Using CreditMetrics
Calculate each loans marginal risk contribution =
the change in the portfolios standard deviation
due to the addition of the asset into the portfolio.
Table 11.6 shows the marginal risk contribution of
20 loans quite different from standalone risk.
Calculate the total risk of a loan using the
marginal contribution to risk = Marginal standard
deviation x Credit Exposure. Shown in column
(5) of Table 11.6.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 29
Figure 11.4
Plot total risk exposure using marginal risk
contributions (column 6 of Table 11.6) against the
credit exposure (column 5 of Table 11.4).
Draw total risk isoquants using column 5 of Table
11.6.
Find risk outliers such as asset 15 which have too
much portfolio risk ($270,000) for the loans size
($3.3 million).
This analysis is not a risk-return tradeoff. No
returns.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 30
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
1
2
3
0
Credit Exposure ($ Millions)
14 12 10
Isoquant Curv e of
Equal Total Risk
= $70,000
8 6 4
15
7
14
13
6
16
5
12 10
9
20 1
18
8
2 16
Figure 11.4 Credit limits and loan selection in CreditMetrics.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 31
Default Correlations Using Reduced Form Models
Events induce simultaneous jumps in default intensities.
Duffie & Singleton (1998): Mean reverting correlated
Poisson arrivals of randomly sized jumps in default
intensities.
Each assets conditional PD is a function of 4 parameters:
h (intensity of default process); (constant arrival prob.); k
(mean reversion rate); u (steady state constant default
intensity).
The jumps in intensity follow an exponential distribution
with mean size of jump=J.
So: probability of survival from time t to s:
p(t,s) = exp{o(s-t)+|(s-t)h(t)}
where |(t) = -(1 e
-kt
)/k
o(t) = -u[t + |(t)] [/(J+k)][Jt ln(1 - |(t)J)]
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 32
Numerical Example
Suppose that =.002, k=.5, u=.001, J=5, h(0)=.001 (corresponds to an
initial rating of AA).
Correlations across loan default probabilities:
V
c
=common factor; V=idiosyncratic factor. As v0, corr0 As v1,
corr1.
If v=.02, V=.001, V
c
=.05: the probability that loan
i
intensity jumps
given that loan
j
has experienced a jump is = vV
c
/(V
c
+V) = 2%. If v=
.05 (instead of .02), then the probability increases to 5%.
Figure 11.5 shows correlated jumps in default intensities.
Figure 11.6 shows the impact of correlations on the portfolios risk.
= vV
c
+ V
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 33
150
100
50
0
Marketwide
Credit Ev ent
Year
Source: Duffe and Singleton (1998), p.25.
The figure shows a portion of a simulated sample path of total default arrival
intensity (exactly 1,000 firms). An X denotes a default event.
Calendar
Time
3.4 3.2 3.8 3.6 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 4
Figure 11.5 Correlated def ault intensities.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 34
0
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
0
Time Windowm (Day s)
70
High Correlation
Medium Correlation
Low Correlation
60 90 80 50 40 30 20 10 100
Source: Duffe and Singleton (1998), p.27.
The figure shows the probabilty of an m-day interval within
10 years having four or more defaults (base case).
Figure 11.6 Portf olio def ault intended.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 35
Appendix 11.1: Valuing a Loan that Matures
after the Credit Horizon KMV PM
Maturity=M
3
in Figure 11.1. Use MTM to value loans.
Four Step Process:
1. Valuation of an individual firms assets using random sampling
of risk factors.
2. Loan valuation based on the EDFs implied by the firms asset
valuation.
3. Aggregation of individual loan values to construct portfolio
value.
4. Calculation of excess returns and losses for portfolio.
Yields a single estimate for expected returns (losses) for
each loan in the portfolio. Use Monte Carlo simulation
(repeated 50,000 to 200,000 times) to trace out distribution
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 36
Step 1: Valuation of Firm Assets at
3 Time Horizons Fig. 11.7
A
0 ,
A
H ,
A
M
valuations. Stochastic process generating A
H,
A
M
:
The random component c= systematic portion f + firm-specific portion
u. Each simulation draws another risk factor.
Using A
H
and
A
M
can calculate EDF
H
and EDF
M
ln A
H
= ln A
0
+ (-.5o
2
)t
H
+ oc
H
\t
H
(11.21)
where A
H
= the asset value at the credit horizon date H,
= the expected return (drift term) on the asset valuation,
o = the volatility of asset returns,
t
H
= the credit horizon time period,
c
H
= a random risk term (assumed to follow a standard normal
distribution).
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 37
Step 2: Loan Valuation Using
Term Structure of EDFs
Convert EDF into QDF by removing risk-adjusted ROR.
Also value loan as of credit horizon date H:
V
0
= PV
0
(1 LGD) + PV
0
(1-QDF)LGD (11.22)
where V
0
= the loans present value,
PV
0
= the present value factor using the riskfree rate to discount the loans cash flows to time t=0,
QDF = the (cumulative) risk neutral quasi-EDF,
LGD = the loss given default
V
H|ND
= C
H
+ PV
H
(1 LGD) + PV
H
(1-QDF)LGD (11.23)
where V
H|ND
= the loans expected value as of the credit horizon date given that
default has not occurred,
C
H
= the cash flow on the credit horizon date,
PV
H
= the present value factor using the riskfree rate as the discount factor to
discount the loans cash flows to time t=H.
However, there is a possibility that the loan will default on or before the credit horizon date. The expected
value of the loan given default is:
V
H|D
= (C
H
+ PV
H
)LGD
(11.24)
V
H
= (EDF) V
H|D
+ (1-EDF) V
H|ND
(11.25)
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 38
Step 3: Aggregation to Construct Portfolio
Sum the expected values V
H
for all loans in
the portfolio.
P
t
V =
i
i
t
V (11.26)
where
P
t
V = the value of the loan portfolio at date t=0,H,
i
t
V
= the value of each loan i at date t=0,H.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 39
Step 4: Calculation of Excess Returns/Losses
Excess Returns on the Portfolio:
Expected Loss on the Portfolio:
Repeat steps 1 through 4 from 50,000 to 200,000 times.
H
R =
F
P
P P
H
R
V
V V
0
0
(11.27)
where R
H
= the excess return on the loan portfolio from time period 0 to
the credit
horizon date H,
P
H
V
= the expected value of the loan portfolio at the credit
horizon date,
P
V
0 = the present value of the loan portfolio,
R
F
= the riskfree rate.
0
|
V
V V
EL
H ND H
H
= (11.28)
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 40
A Case Study: KMV PM valuation of 5 yr maturity
$1 loan paying a fixed rate of 10% p.a.
Using Table 11.8:
V
0
= PV
0
(1 LGD) + PV
0
(1-QDF)LGD = 1.2103(.50) + (1.0675)(.50)
= $ 1.1389
Table 11.8
Valuing the Loans Present Value
Time
Period
(1)
Cash
flows
per
period
(2)
Discount
Factor
F
tR
e
(3)
Risk-free
Present
Value of
Cashflows
(2) x (3) = (4)
EDF
i
cumulative
(5)
QDF
i
cumulative
(6)
Risky
Present
Value of
Cashflows
(7)
1 .10 .9512 .0951 .0100 .0203 .0932
2 .10 .9048 .0905 .0199 .0471 .0862
3 .10 .8607 .0861 .0297 .0770 .0795
4 .10 .8187 .0819 .0394 .1088 .0730
5 1.10 .7788 .8567 .0490 .1414 .7356
Totals 1.2103 1.0675
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 41
Valuing the Loan at the Credit Horizon Date =1
Using Table 11.9:
V
H|ND
= C
H
+ PV
H
(1 LGD) + PV
H
(1-QDF)LGD = 0.10 +
1.1723(.50) + (1.0615)(.50) = $ 1.2169
V
H|D
= (C
H
+ PV
H
)LGD = (0.10 + 1.1723)(.50) = $ 0.63615
V
H
= (EDF) V
H|D
+ (1-EDF) V
H|ND
= (.01)(.63615) + (.99)(1.2169)
= $ 1.2111
Time
Period
(1)
Cash
flows
per
period
(2)
Discount
Factor
F
tR
e
(3)
Risk-free
Present
Value of
Cashflows
(2) x (3) = (4)
EDF
i
cumulative
(5)
QDF
i
cumulative
(6)
Risky
Present
Value of
Cashflows
(7)
1 .10 1 0
2 .10 .9512 .0951 .0100 .0203 .0932
3 .10 .9048 .0905 .0199 .0471 .0862
4 .10 .8607 .0861 .0297 .0770 .0795
5 1.10 .8187 .9006 .0394 .1088 .8026
Totals 1.1723 1.0615
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 42
KMVs Private Firm Model
Calculate EBITDA for private firm j in industry
j
.
Calculate the average equity mulitple for industry
i
by dividing the industry average MV of equity by
the industry average EBITDA.
Obtain an estimate of the MV of equity for firm j
by multiplying the industry equity multiple by
firm js EBITDA.
Firm js assets = MV of equity + BV of debt
Then use valuation steps as in public firm model.
Saunders & Allen Chapters 10 & 11 43
Credit Risk Plus Model 2 - Incorporating Systematic
Linkages in Mean Default rates
Mean default rate is a function of factor sensitivities to different independent
sectors (industries or countries).
Table 11.7 shows as example of 2 loans sensitive to a single factor (parameters
reflect US national default rates). As credit quality declines (m gets larger),
correlations get larger.
AB
= (m
A
m
B
)
1/2
=
N
k 1
u
Ak
u
Bk
(o
k
/m
k
)
2
(11.20)
where
AB
= default correlation between obligor A and B,
m
A
= mean default rate for type A obligor,
m
B
= mean default rate for type B obligor,
u
A
= allocation of obligor A's default rate volatility across N
sectors,
u
B
= allocation of obligor B's default rate volatility across N
sectors,
(o
k
/m
k
)
2
= proportional default rate volatility in sector k.