SOLAR ENERGY SECRETS OF SILICONE with James Dunn | Photovoltaics | Hybrid Vehicle

Solar Energy: “Silicon Secrets”

James Dunn Center for Technology Commercialization Conf. on Future Energy Washington, DC Sept. 2006

PV Industry - ready to Take-off?
• Many large players entering Market like Honda, Mitsubishi, and Si Valley co’s • Technology Advances • Renewable Energy “Green” credits • Utilities need Green Power • DOE and DOD funding • Zero Energy Homes

Silicon – “Energy Gold”
• Solar power = less than 1 % of world's electricity - Growing over 40 % annually, $15 billion globally, says Rhone Resch, Pres. of the Solar Energy Industry Assoc. • "The solar industry is the next great hightech industry," Resch said. "Our estimate is that within 10 years solar could be the

lowest cost option for US electricity"

World PV Installations

PV Market Growth

US losing market share
• US has LOST lead in solar power development. • In 1997, U.S. solar power mfg captured 100% of the domestic market; • in 2003, we captured only 73%. • In 1997, U.S. mfgr.s captured over 40% of the world market; • in 2003, they captured only 14%. • We need to regain our Leadership!

Is there enough Silicon materials?
• 94% of PV Market uses Silicon
• Typically use “waste” si from Semiconductor industry @ $30-40/kg • Demand outpacing supply by 2-3X • Spot market prices up to $175/kg! • New PV grade Silicon emerging • New non–Si technologies & methods • New Thin Film and flexible PV designs

Serious Silicon Shortages
• World Si production about 35,000 Tons/yr. • PV Currently using up to 50% of Semiconductor grade materials ($$$$) • Need 50-85,000 Tons Si to meet growth • Si Represents 30-40% of total Panel cost • Need to expand Si mfg. and reduce cost • Typical (Siemens) plant costs $350-500M

PV Types and Efficiencies

Basic PV operation

Spectral Response

PhotoVoltaic Market Explosion

System Prices and cost targets

Shipments and Job forecast

PV Efficiency Improving

Major players – Where is the US?

Sharp Kyosera BP Solar Shell Solar Schott

Electric power Generation costs
Type Cost (c/kWh) 3-5 4-7 7-9 20-40 20-30 Combined cycle gas turbine Wind Power Biomass gasification Remote diesel generation Solar PV central station Solar PV distributed

2020 Target PV Cost

20-50 5-10

Top 20 players in 2006
• • Applied Materials (US) • Evergreen Solar (US) • First Solar (US) • GT Solar (US) • Hemlock (US) • SunPower (US) • • BP Solar (UK) • Carmanah (Canada) • Conergy (Germany) • Ersol (Germany) • Kyocera (Japan) • M.Setek (Japan) • Motech (Taiwan) • Q-Cells (Germany) • REC (Norway) • Sanyo (Japan) • Sharp (Japan) • SolarWorld (Germany) • Suntech (China) • Tokuyama (Japan)

US Co’s to Watch: – Dow Corning – Solar Sciences – NanoSolar - Energy Conversion Devices - Daystar - Spire – Equip, Supplier

Market Forecast – Photon Consulting

Large 100-500 kW Installations

Solar PV Trends

Tracking Collectors

New PV Roofing Tiles

New PV Designs
• Concentrating Solar Systems

Improved PV Modules
• • • • • Larger sizes and features Easy to Install Longer life Higher efficiency – up to 22% Higher Cost per Watt – 2005 !

Solar ‘Deals’ ?

• Evergreen EC120 Solar Pan 120 Watts, 12 Volts DC Made in USA • Only $4.29 per Watt ! • *Sale ends at 11AM ET, Wednesday, 9/20/2006 $518.00 Save $337.00

NREL Solar Hydrogen Home Vision

PV Silicon supply solutions
Several pathways: New PV grade Materials like Dow PV1101 New low cost Processes and Solar PV plants Better yields – Thinner wafers Thin Films and NanoSolar materials Non Si Technologies CIGS, TiO2, etc. R&D in higher efficiencies - $53M Univ. DE.

New Solar Silicon materials Dow Corning's PV1101
Coarser grade – 5-9’s purity Need to blend with Semi grade Polysilicon Cost savings limited (10% max) Production limited Requires blending Market limited window

PV / Fuel Cell Hybrid Power Plants
4-250-watt Fuel Cells
Photovoltaic arrays

Filter for hydrogen going to fuel cells Borohydride Fuel Tank

Fuel Pump

Main Vessel

Catalyst Chamber

World Trade Center complex goes LEED
Future plans may Include solar

Can the US Regain leadership?

Rapid Expansion Forecast
• Solar production increase six-fold by 2010 : 10 GW BY 2010. The bulk of this growth will be in crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells/modules. Production of high purity Si feedstock rising from 32,000 tons in 2005 to over 85,000 tons in 2010, At the same time, increasing cell efficiencies and decreasing waste will enable silicon usage per watt to improve by 40%, from 11.5 g/W in 2005 to 7 g/W in 2010. Total c-Si cell/module production should exceed 8 GW by 2010. stronge growth of non-traditional technologies (CdTe, a-Si, CIS, μcSi, concentrators) • We expect nontraditional production to expand from 0.15 GW (9% market share) in 2005 to 2 GW (20% market share) in 2010.

Zero Energy Solar Homes

PV competes with Small Wind Turbines
• New Propeller-Free Spiral Designs – • New Integrated Inverters and controls

New World Global Warming Funds
Richard Branson pledged $3 billion to battle global warming, 9-22-06 Clinton announced launch of a $1B renewable energy investment fund 9-23 Clinton’s Green Fund to focus on reducing pollution and our dependence on fossil fuels. “The Earth is warming at an alarming rate, we are running out of fossil fuels, and it is time for us to take action to correct these problems,” Clinton said. “This is also a tremendous opportunity and there are countless good new jobs to be created in green energy field.”

The Race Heats up
• • • • • • Billions being spent Many large players Unlimited Market growth Improved performance Closing in on Electric costs Ideal for emerging countries

Future Vehicle Technology

COFE - Wash. DC James Dunn Center for Technology Commercialization Sept. 2006

Future Vehicle Techs. 2010-2020
• • • • • • • • • • • Many configurations, options & drive trains Lower Drag – high efficiency, streamlined bodies Advanced Spaceframes – Alum. + more magnesium Light weight Composite bodies and components New Airless tires and compliant wheels New Engines like Free Piston Engine-Generators Many fuels – Ethanol, CNG, BioDiesel, Syngas ? More Electric drives and Wheel Motors Novel Energy storage systems Adv. Sensors/controls – Rear view cameras & auto-parking Auto-Pilots - Lane tracking & auto. navigation

Vehicle Trends

Future drivetrain options
Gas, Diesel, or H2 Hybrid vehicles Plug-In Hybrids – novel energy storage Pure EV’s, some with series hybrid ICE Hydraulic Hybrids – I.E. EPA Compressed Air drive systems New Magnetic motor drives and Wheel Motors New IC Engines – Scuderi Split Cycle Engine, Rand Cam engine, DOD engines, Sterlings, and Free Piston Engines/Generators Multi-fuelled – CNG, Ethanol, Gas, Biofuels, H2

Free Piston Engines

Basic Free Piston Engine Specs
• • • • • • 35 KW design Simple - 1 Moving part Hydrogen Combustion – No Emissions 50% Thermal Efficiency Low Cost Long Life

Future Vehicle Technology
Technology • Hybrid Gas-electric • Hybrid diesel-electric • Hydrogen ICE • Alt. Fuel Hybrids • Plug-in Hybrids/EV’s • H2 ICE Hybrids • Hybrid MicroTurbine • Hydrogen Fuel Cell Time 2000-2015 2007-2015 2008-2030 2010-2020 2010-2025 2015-2030 2018-2030 2020-2035 Mpg 50-85+ 75-100 40-75 60-100 100-175 100-150 100-175 75-120

Alternative Fuels
Ethanol, Methanol, CNG BioDiesel + SynDiesel (Waste) Vegetable oils BioMass derived fuels, SynFuels H2, Urea, Ammonia Radioactive Pellets/Isotopes Other ?

Ford E-450 Van with Triton 10 Hydrogen ICE

V-

Hybrid Trucks & buses

New Tires and Wheels

Yes – No Air used !

Improved driving – less risk

May be on market by 2008

New Hybrid Designs
Use of U-caps and low cost LiIon batts

250 MPG ??

Battery EV’s

Coming in 2012 ??

New Fuel Cell cars
GM Sequel – Equinox – 100 units to be field tested

BMW – Dual H2/Gas 750

What is it?

Home Fuel Cell Vehicle Refueling Station

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