Economics of Separated

Ascent Stage Launch

Vehicles
By Chris Y. Taylor
42nd AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint
Propulsion Conference
July 11, 2006

chrisytaylor@yahoo.com

Separated Ascent Stage Launch

Vehicles
Multiple vehicles launch separately but cooperate to
put one of their number into orbit .

Examples:
FLOC/Flock
Black Horse
Variation

Flock Space Launch Architecture

By Allan Goff, Novatia Labs, Folsom CA

c=R
c

= specific cost ($/lb.)

= Launch Cost/Payload Mass
= structure - payload mass ratio
= Structure Mass/Payload Mass
Driven by Technology & Physics
= structure cost ($/lb.)
= Launch Cost/Structure Mass
Driven by Management & Economics

c = R ( vehicle + ops
+ risk + propellant) + RD(nr/a)
Recurring Cost
vehicle = Cost of Vehicle Hardware
ops = Cost of Operations
risk = Cost of Risk
propellant = Cost of Propellant
Non-Recurring Cost
RD = Developed StructurePayload Mass
Ratio
nr = Non-recurring Structure Costs

vehicle= f Chardware

= fraction of vehicle expended

= 1 (completely expendable)

Chardware = cost of hardware ($/lb)

$1100 < Chardware <$2300

$1100 < vehicle < $2300

ops = L Clabor

L
= labor intensity (manhours/lb)
= Total Labor Hours / Structure Mass
1 < L < 20 (for current launchers)

Clabor = cost of labor ($/manhour)

= $100

$100 < ops < $2000

risk Pfail[Cpayload/r +
(1-f) Chardware]
Pfail = probability of failure
0.02 < Pfail < 0.05

Cpayload

= cost of payload ($/lb)

= payload cost/payload mass
$10,000

r = 2, f = 1

$100 < risk < $250

not including indirect costs

propellant = q Cpropellant

= Propellant Mass/Structure Mass

= r[/(1-)]
= 18 (assuming r=2, =0.9)

$0.1 < Cpropellant <$0.25

$1.8 < propellant <$4.5

Amortized Non-Recurring Cost

( nr/a)
nr
= non-recurring costs
$20,000 < nr < $120,000
(assuming R&D only)

a
= amortization factor
flight rate
= 27
(10 yr. payback, 4 yr. r&d , flight rate of 27/6 yr, 0%
interest & inflation)

$750 < ( nr/a)< $4500

Current Structure Launch Cost

Estimate

$5,000

Costs/Structure Mass

$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
R&D

Vehicle

Ops

Risk

Prop.

R and RD
R = Structure Payload Mass Ratio
Vehicle

Typical
Values:

Atlas V 400
Proton M
Ariane 5
Space
Shuttle

r (to LEO)
2
2.2
5.2
12

RD = Developed Structure Payload Mass

Ratio
= R (for entirely new launch vehicles)
Assumed R = RD = 2 for initial launch cost
estimate.

Current Specific Launch Cost

$10,000
Estimate
$9,000
Costs/Payload Mass ($/lb.)

$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
R&D

Vehicle

Ops

Risk

Prop.

R&D costs must be lowered!

Launch costs >$1000/lb. payload to
LEO with current development & flight
rate even if all recurring costs are
zero!
How can

RD(nr/a)

be lowered?

nr

R
D

Reduce Cost through Lean

Operation and Good Management

Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design

Griffen, M.D., Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration, presented U. of Wisconsin, April 11, 1999, http://fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/SPRING1999/lec

R&D costs must be lowered!

Launch costs >$1000/lb. payload to
LEO with current development & flight
rate even if all recurring costs are
zero!
How can

RD(nr/a)

be lowered?

nr

R
D

Using Identical Stages for

Reduced Development Cost
With Identical
stages RD < R
even for an entirely
new launch vehicle.

Bimese

Identical stages
increases
development cost
(nr).

Image from:
THE BIMESE CONCEPT: A STUDY OF MISSION
AND ECONOMIC OPTIONS by Dr. John R. Olds
and Jeffrey Tooley, 1999

Trimese

N-mese?

Flock Space Launch Architecture

By Allan Goff, Novatia Labs, Folsom CA

Separated ascent stages could allow a large

number of identical stages with a simple vehicle

FLOC Weight Growth

Calculated Launch Vehicle Structure-Payload Mass Ratio vs.
Structure Mass Fraction (Isp = 372)

Separated Ascent Stage

Tradeof

Large number of identical stages mean low

RD.
Simple configuration allows low vehicle nr.
Flock flexibility might allow high flight rate
and a.
Requires demonstration of safe, reliable midascent rendezvous. This requires expensive
and risky development effort. TANSTAAFL!

Mid-Ascent Rendezvous?
Are You Serious?
The idea of refueling an airplane in flight must have
seemed bizarre to anyone witnessing the Wright
Brothers first flights. By the 1920s it had been
demonstrated and today it is done routinely.
- R.M. Zubrin
Black Horse Proposal: 6 min. of exo-atmospheric
coasting, fuel transfer via. extendable boom needs 2
FLOC Proposal: Exo-atmospheric rendezvous, mating
booster to orbiter instead of refueling, only 1 restart

Is Rocket Rendezvous
Worthwhile?

Duration and cost of development program to

demonstrate rocket mid-flight rendezvous
unknown.
Novatia estimates specific cost of FLOC system
at about $100 to $200 per pound to LEO.
Are Novatias cost estimates accurate?

FLOC Performance Estimates

Data taken from: Goff, A., The Flock

Booster Architecture Low Cost Access to
LEO via Sustained Fueling, presented at
the 40th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint
Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, AIAA2004-3730, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 2004.

RocketCost.xls (beta)
1 stage simple linear cost analysis + risk
Summary
Payload Mass (lbs.)
Vehicle Masses (lbs.)
Specific Cost ($/lb)

to Contents
Structure
n/a
6,706

Propellant
n/a
85,162

Total
8,100
99,969
1,161

Rocket Equation Variables

Specific Impulse
Change in Velocity
Velocity Loss due to Gravity & Drag
Ideal Change in Velocity
Propellant Mass Fraction
Payload Mass
Vehicle Cost Characteristics
Fraction of Hardware Expended
Combined Propellant Price
Specific Cost of Hardware
Hourly Cost of Labor
Labor Intensity
Vehicle R&D Cost per lb. of Ms
Cost per lb. of Vehicle of Additional Facilities
Fraction of Development Attributed to ea. Launch
Non-Vehicle Cost Mission Failure
Probability of Mission Failure

Isp
Vbo
Vloss
V

Mpl

f
Cp
cs
cl
L
cr&d
cf
d
Cfail
pfail

415
23,500
2,000
25,500
0.927
8,100

0.020
0.127
1,000
75
1
100,000
0
0.01000
$198,000,000
0.01000

s
ft/s
ft/s
ft/s

Vehicle Description
Mass Ratio
Structural Mass
Propellant Mass
Structural Ratio
Initial Mass
Final Mass
Production Vehicle Cost
Program Development Cost
Fraction of Theoretically Possible V

R
Ms
Mp
R
Mi
Mf
Cs
Cd
Vratio

6.752
6,706
85,162
0.828
99,969
14,806
$6,706,409
$670,640,947
0.729682972

dimensionless
lbs.
lbs.
dimensionless
lbs.
lbs.

dimensionless

dimensionless
lbs.

dimensionless
$/lb
$/lb
$/hr
hr/lb

Total Cost of Launch

Cost of Hardware Expended
Cost of Propellant
Cost of Operations & Refurbishment
Cost of Risk
TOTAL COST w/o Development
Development Cost Assigned to ea. Launch
Total Cost including Development

Ch
Cp
Co
Cr
Ct
Cd

$134,128
$10,816
$502,981
$2,045,723
$2,693,647
$6,706,409
$9,400,057

Mpl
ch
cp
co
cr
cd
ct

8,100
17
1
62
253
828
1,161

$/lb
$/lb
dimensionless
dimensionless

Cost per unit Mass of Payload

Payload Mass
Specific Cost of Hardware Expended
Specific Cost of Propellant
Specific Cost of Ops & Refurb
Specific Cost of Risk
Specific Cost of Developoment
SPECIFIC COST

lbs.
$/lb
$/lb
$/lb
$/lb
$/lb
$/lb

http://www.jupiter-measurement.com/research/rocketcost.xls

32 Unit FLOC Baseline Cost

Estimate
Rocket

Input

Plane

Value

Input

Value

0.01

0.01

cH

$1000/lb

cH

$500/lb

0.1

0.01

cL

$100/hr

cL

$100/hr

PFAIL

2%

PFAIL

2%

cPL

$10,000/lb

cPL

$10,000/lb

cP

$0.25/lb.

cP

$0.25/lb.

nr

$20,000/lb

nr

$9,500/lb

27

27
Result

Result
Amortized Vehicle
Development

$481/lb.

Amortized Vehicle
Development

$229/lb.

Vehicle Hardware

$209/lb.

Vehicle Hardware

$104/lb.

Operations

$209/lb.

Operations

$21/lb.

Risk

$20/lb.

Risk

$20/lb.

Propellant

$4/lb

Propellant

$4/lb

TOTAL

$923/lb.

TOTAL

$378/lb.

Is FLOC a Rocket or a Plane?

Structure Mass / GLOW
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
AtlasV +
CentaurIII

Ariane 5

FLOC
Baseline

KC-135

B-58
Hustler

Rocket Specific Cost Estimate: $923/lb.

Plane Specific Cost Estimate: $378/lb.

Conclusions
Amortized development cost is really important for
economical space access. Dont spend $$$ to develop
more than you have to.
Separated ascent stage launch systems can achieve low
amortized vehicle development cost.
Keeping operations labor intensity low and reusability
high would be key to realizing the cost savings of
separated ascent stage launch systems.
The cost, duration, and risk of developing the mid-ascent
rendezvous capability needed for separated ascent
stage launch systems is unknown.
Do vehicle savings justify mid-ascent rendezvous
development costs? I dont know, but it is a serious
question.

Selected Bibliography
Griffin, M. D., and Claybaugh, W. R., The Cost of Access to Space, JBIS, Vol. 47, 1994, pp.
119-122.
Claybaugh, W. R., AIAA Professional Study Series Course: Economics of Space
Transportation, Oct. 12-13, 2002, Houston TX.
Taylor, C.Y., Propulsion Economic Considerations for Next Generation Space Launch,
presented at the 40th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, AIAA2004-3561, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 2004.
Griffin, M.D., Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration, presented at the U. of Wisconsin,
Madison, WI, Nov. 9, 2001, http://fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/FALL2001/lecture29.pdf.
Chang, I.S., Overview of World Space Launches, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol. 16, No.
5, 2000, pp. 853-866.
Isakowitz, S. J., Hopkins, J., and Hopkins, J. P., International Reference Guide to Space
Launch Systems, 4th ed., AIAA, Reston, VA, 2004.
Clapp, M. B., and Zubrin, R. M., Black Horse:One Stop to Orbit, Analog Science Fiction
and Fact, June 1995, pp. 63-82
Goff, A., FLOC Tradeoff Study Minimizing Technical Risk with Zero-g Sustained Fueling,
presented at the 41st AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, AIAA2005-32493, Tuscon, AZ, 2005.
Goff, A., The Flock Booster Architecture Low Cost Access to LEO via Sustained Fueling,
presented at the 40th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, AIAA2004-3730, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 2004.
Dore, F. J., Aircraft Design and Development Experience Related to Reusable Launch
Vehicles, Reducing the Cost of Space Transportation: Proceedings of the American
Astronautical Society 7th Goddard Memorial Symposium, edited by George K. Chacko,
American Astronautical Society, Washington, D.C., 1969.
Rocketcost.xls spreadsheet, Rev. K., Jupiter Research and Development, Houston, TX,
2006.