Futures for Higher Education

Scenario workshop
DELEGATE PACK

4 questions to complete before we start

Whats your vision for the HE sector in 30 years?

www.

.com

What will the most

successful

institutions be doing in 30 years that the others

arent?

www.

.com

Its 15 years from now, what will have

changed most in terms of the universitys

mission

income

organisation / ways of working

www.

.com

Which aspect of your strategy is most critical to

ensuring the future success of the university?

www.

.com

FUTURES FOR HIGHER

EDUCATION
Trends presentation
2011

The workshop addresses two

main aims

Analysing
trends into the
future and what
is taking us
there

Exploring what
we want for
the future and
how we could
get there

This presentation focuses on

three main trends

The
funding
of higher
educatio
n in the
UK

The
demand
for
higher
educatio
n

Innovati
on and
evolutio
n in
higher
educatio
n

A
PICTURE
FOR
THE
FUTURE?

THIS SLIDE ILLUSTRATES

COMPONENTS OF THE
DAY
NOW
Current
situation

2/3-5 years
Lock ins

Outcome 1
What is hoped for in
the 30-year vision?

Outcome 2

Long-term drivers

Outcome 3
Institutional level

Segment stories

Short-term choices

Long-term choices

A.

Sector level

Key
Key indicators
indicators
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.

2010
2010

2015
2015

2040
2040

B.
C.

And these are points for the

group to consider
Headline questions

Things to think about

What are the key

decisions that face
your institution?

What sectors have

changed beyond
recognition?

How might these

shape higher
education in the UK
and around the
world?

What sectors are

starting rapid change
now?

How do you see the

future of HE in the

What about Black

Swans?

DEVELOPING A PICTURE OF
THE FUTURE

These are some caricatures of

the last decade
Demand continuing to outstrip heavily
regulated supply
Persistence of a dominant 3 year residential
degree model prestige of traditional models
Private providers and FE marginal or
subordinate to universities

And this has been the story of

funding for the past twenty years

We are now set for a

liberalisation of the market
Supply side liberalisation
Tuition fee replacing grant with more scope for
differentiation in cost (Or not...)
Stronger demand led focus on quality
Introduction of amendable mechanisms to restrain
taxpayer liability

 An infux of foreign investment at some point

Ex ante to protect consumer interests and ex post
competition law
Amongst both original players and new entrants
Biggest and most fnancially sound of the
incumbents

New sources of
funding?
New regulation?
Failures, mergers and
take-overs?
Continued market
domination for a time?
New entrants?

Lots of small niche suppliers & some big value

entrants

Innovation?

In what is ofered in terms of services, pricing,

support, etc

Others sectors have been

through liberalisation

A big assumption that needs to be

assessed

Post
industrial
economic
developm
ent

Developin
g middle
classes in
emerging
economie
s

Data rich
and
knowledg
e driven
world
learning
througho
ut career

Ongoing
and
growing
demand
for
higher
education
and
research

Could this be a picture of a

deregulated high demand future?
Higher education institutional income from non-EU domiciled students 1994/95 - 2008/09
(and non-EU domicile student numbers; excluding students from EEA countries)
2,500

300,000

247,995

239,210
229,645

199,225

million, cash terms

1,500

116,840
117,290122,150
111,480
1 09,940

173,985
152,620
136,295

Student numbers (head counts)

200,000

150,000

97,997

2,200 m

1,499 m

500

1,880 m

100,000

1,713 m

1,000

250,000

219,175
214,690

2,000

50,000

0
455 m 507 m 563 m 622 m 636 m 672 m 746 m 875 m 1,085 m 1,275 m 1,396 m 1,499 m 1,713 m 1,880 m 2,200 m

Academic years

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA): Resources of higher education institutions, Students in higher education institutions, various years

* From 2007/08 w riting up and sabbatical students are no longer included in standard counts of students

However - the worst financial and

economic crisis since 1929 started in 2007

Our GDP growth forecast is slow relative

to previous recoveries. This reflects the
effects of the fiscal consolidation, the
relatively slow easing of tight credit
conditions and ongoing private sector
deleveraging.
(Office for budget responsibility: March 2011)

Given rising pressure on governments

balance sheets and limitations on public
funding growth, Moodys anticipates that
the university sector will, over the long
term, seek more independent sources of
funding to finance growth and
expansion. We anticipate that
endowment fund building through
philanthropy, enrolments of international
students and borrowing will rise in some
countries.
(Moodys International Public Finance: Higher
Education, June 2009)

And the route out is long and

complex

Soverei
gn debt
crisis

Recessi
on and
unempl
oyment

Econom
ic
outlook

Credit
and
lending
crisis

Banking
debt
crisis

Will this lock in the shift to

tuition based funding?

 Public value agendas of mobility, equality and access

Research concentration v. diversifcation

Ending moral hazard produced by government-backed loan some risk transfer onto
institutions
Reducing government exposure to cost of loan book through RAB charge adjustments
Setting student numbers free ending student number controls
Use of competition regulation

Impact of government student number de regulation and incentives (AAB and

75000)
The new regulatory framework extent of any de regulation or liberalisation

Ongoing
variable
themes

Short/
Medium
term
questions

Immediate
questions

What other questions will need to

be resolved?

How will these changes affect

pressures around...
Customer satisfaction quality of teaching
and facilities?
Staff and professional satisfaction the
volume and quality of research?
Prestige and the push for world class
status continued cost inflation?

We are already seeing the

globalisation of higher education
Overseas students on UK HE provision and location of study, 2009/10
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000

340,010

200000
150000
100000
50000

68,450

0
2009/10
HEI in the UK

2009/10
HEI overseas
Location of study

This is being driven by global

economic development
0

China seeks to be the Asian country with the greatest number of

international students and a major destination in the world for
international students, according to goals outlined in its National
Plan for Medium and Long-Term Education Reform and
Development (20102020). With an annual international student
growth rate of 7%, international student numbers will reach at
least 500,000 by 2020, making it the biggest hosting country in
Asia.

20,000 40,000 60,000

China
India
Nigeria
United States
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia

(China on the Cusp: Becoming the biggest international student destination in Asia:
The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education)

Canada
Thailand
Taiwan

1998/99
2009/10

Korea (South)
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Singapore
Japan
Norway
Russia
Iran
Turkey

Number of students
in UK higher
education institutions
from the top 20
countries of domicile
for non-EU students,
2009/10

Producing new concentrations

of demand
UK providers with courses in Hong Kong
1.Birmingham City University
2.Coventry University
3.De Montfort University
4.Edinburgh Napier University
5.Glyndwr University
6.Herriot-Watt University
7.Kingston University
8.Lancaster University
9.Leeds Metropolitan University
10.
Manchester Metropolitan University
11.
Middlesex University
12.
Nottingham Trent University
13.
Oxford Brookes University
14.
Queen Mary, University of London
15.
Sheffield Hallam University
16.
Staffordshire University
17.
Swansea Metropolitan University
18.
The Royal Veterinary College, University of London
19.
The University of Bolton
20.
The University of Hull
21.
The University of Nottingham
22.
The University of Salford
23.
University College Birmingham
24.
University of Bath
25.
University of Bedford
26.
University of Birmingham
27.
University of Bradford
28.
University of Central Lancashire
29.
University of Derby
30.
University of Durham
31.
University of Glamorgan
32.
University of Gloucestershire
33.
University of Greenwich
34.
University of Hertfordshire
35.
University of Huddersfield
36.
University of Leicester
37.
University of London
38.
University of Manchester
39.
University of Northampton
40.
University of Northumbria
41.
University of Plymouth
42.
University of Portsmouth
43.
University of Reading
44.
University of Strathclyde
45.
University of Sunderland
46.
University of Surrey
47.
University of Ulster
48.
University of Wales
49.
University of Wales, Newport
50.
University of Warwick
51.
University of Wolverhampton
52.
University of the West of England, Bristol
53.
York St John University

And increasingly global

research networks

The continued strength of the traditional centres of

scientific excellence and the emergence of new players
and leaders point towards an increasingly multipolar
scientific world, in which the distribution of scientific
activity is concentrated in a number of widely dispersed
hubs.

But addressing these trends is

not simple
Complex
ethical and
political
landscape

Diverse
student and
staffing
needs

New
competitors
US and
Chinese
universities

Overseas
academic
and industry
partners for
research

New
organisationa
l challenges
HR, fnance

Brand
Positioni
ng
Investm
ent

Wider range
of degree
models (1+2
etc)

Research concentration may affect your

institutions positioning domestically and globally

Or will a drift toward contract based funding

present challenges or opportunities?
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000

Science budget allocation

2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-

1000
900
800
700
600

Collaborative
research

500
400

HEBCI survey

300

Contract
research

200
100
0
2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008

How will financial models

evolve?
Efficiencies: streamlining and new accounting practices?
Costs: hollowing out of functions as part of efficiency and
modernisation strategies narrower focus?
Funding: new models of private revenue?
New ways of monetising the asset base investment
driven organisations?

You may be interested in US

revenue models

You may be interested in US

expenditure models

How might the presence of new

entrants affect you?

Online provision, with local

learning bases: locations within
10 miles of 87 million
Americans

No tenured professors
recruited by the class
The University of
Phoenix
455,600 enrolled
students in 2010
Large marketing budget(25,000
20% in 1995)
of Apollo Groups $1.3 billion
net revenue on selling and
promotional expenses

Aggressive recruitment of those

with access to federal aid and
veterans nearly 90% of
revenue

And what about online are we

leaving a decade of disappointment?
Development in CPD & TNE:
Facilitated
Blended
Online
Increasingly bottom up
adoption and adaptation of
technologies e.g. Cloud
computing
Do technologies require
review of methods?
Navigating knowledge
Intercultural and online
learning
Research methods &
networks

And what about unbundled

models of delivery?
The role of technology in enabling the
disaggregation of delivery and
compartmentalised products
The delivery process:
Content syllabus, research & scholarship
Classroom teaching, lectures, supervision
Infrastructure IT networks, libraries, estates etc

The product:

Pay as you go tuition, credit accumulation

Examination, accreditation and validation
Assessment
Library services
Accommodation
Student finance?

 HEIs staffed and led by those who have paid for most or all of the cost of
their tuition and been brought up on internet social networking
Fee paying cohort moving into leadership positions
Web 2.0 generation entering into mature academic posts
Fee paying cohort entering and maturing into academic posts
Web 2.0 generation entering into the academic workforce
Cohort of fee paying students entering into academic workforce
Web 2.0 generation entering into higher education

2040
2030
2020
Today

And through all of this generations

will change what will this mean?

And social priorities will evolve

what will be the next one?

The shift to a digital society: innovated and incubated by universities

in the first place
Will it all be about technological and social solutions for climate
change, or something else?

Future of UK university
research base, UUK 2010

Some initial questions for the

group
What is right, wrong or missing from this picture: or
have you heard it too often to care?
What is most significant for you and what are you
less bothered about?
What are the most significant uncertainties and how
might these shape outcomes?
What other ways are there or should there be of
looking at all this?

1) Trends, drivers,
events

Possible futures for the institution in 30 years

3) The best case?

6) Implications?
a) Relationships with
government(s)

b) Relationships with
other institutions

4) An interesting case?

5) The Defining
Moment(s)

c) Other relationships

2) The worst case?

Doodle an image

www.idenk.com

7) Questions to ponder?

DRA
FT

Review of the workshop

1. Name:________

2. How do you rate the session (out of 10)?

3. What was best?
4. What should we do next to follow-up on
today?
5. What things will you think more about?
6. What should we tell others?
7. One word to describe how you feel
________