Statistical Analysis

Carl Steinhauer
Consultant

Overview
P 401 Test Results
Statistical Analysis; PWL Estimate
Verify Production Process: Payment

Theory
Assumptions
2. Normal Distribution
3. Tools: Average and Standard
Deviation
4. Percent Within Limits
(PWL) Concept
1.

Assumptions

4.

Limited # of test results

Statistical Analysis
characteristics of large amount of material
Test result variability
Components:
materials
sampling-ERLPM
testing-ERLPM
Same Process
Random sampling-Lot, Sublot

5.

Normal Distribution

1.
2.

3.

Quality

Specific Procedures
1.
2.
3.
4.

Sublots, Lots, Partial Lots

Calculations
Retesting
Outliers

Population
80

F req u en cy

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4-7 4-9 5-1 5-3 5-5 5-7 5-9 5- 6-1 6-3 6-5 6-7 6-9 611
11
Organize Date

Analysis
% Taller than 5-5
% between 5-5 and 6-5
Average Height

Limit # of samples
Statistical Analysis
Estimate average
and % within limits

Asphalt Content %

15

6.55

6.45

6.35

6.25

6.15

6.05

5.95

5.85

5.75

5.65

5.55

5.45

Frequency

Figure 1

96 tests

25

20

n=100

10

30

20
Frequency

60

50

40

10

2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
2125
2150
2175
2200
2225
2250
2275
2300
2325
2350
2375
2400

Marshall Stability

x+/- 1Sn=68%
x+/-2Sn+95%
x+/-3Sn+99.7%

PWL Concept

PWL-% of
test result
exceeding L

L
L=spec lower tolerance limit
eg. Mat density 96.3 for P401

PWL Calculation Procedures

ERLPM-page 47

Section 110-AC 1505370-10A

Method for Computing PWL and Examples
Section 110-02
Spec. P401 Table 5-L and U Spec. Limits (page 24)

Given
x1=2
x2=4
x3=6
x4=8
X = 2+4+6+8 = 5
4

X=5
d1=2-5=-3
d2=4-5=-1

d1=9
d2=1

d3=6-5=1
d4=8-5=3

d3=1
d4=9

Sn =

d1+d2+d3=d4
n-1
Sn =
9+1+1+9 =
20
4-1
3
Sn =2.58
(calculator n-1)

Roundout Rules
ERLPM-page 47

Example-last digit to be kept-nearest 10 th

4.61
4.62
4.64
4.6500
4.66
4.67
4.68
4.69

becomes 4.7

Even Digit-same
Odd Digit-increase by 1
This case becomes 4.6
If it was 4.7500 it would become 4.8

MAT Density
Manual Appendix E, page 4

Sublot
1. = 96.0
2. = 97.0
3. = 99.0
4. = 100.0
x=98.0
Section 110-02f
Sn=1.8
QL=x-L
Spec Tables 5
Sn
QL=98.0-96.3 = .9444
1.8
Section 110-Table l, N=4
PL=82
page 50 ERLPM

MAT Density
PL = 82%

98.0

18%
96.3

Target Density 98.0 Achieved

Sn=1.8 versus 1.3
Acceptable QC Value

Effect of Quality Control

Sn = 1.3
Spec. pg 24

Sn = 1.8

82 PWL

90 PWL
96.3%

98%
x

Air Voids
App. D, page 3

Sublot
1= 2.1
2= 3.2
3=2.5
4=6.0
X= 3.4
Sn= 1.76
Spec. page 5 - 0.65

QL = x-L = 3.4-2.0 = .7955

Sn

1.76

PL(table 1) = 77%
n=4
QU= U-x = 5-3.4 = .909
Sn
1.76
PU(table 1) = 81%
n=4
PWL= PL + PU-100
PWL= 77+81-100 = 58

Air Voids
58%

23%
19%

3.4

PWL= PL + PU-100
PWL= 77 + 81-100 =58

Payment
Spec-par 401-8.1a-page 29
MAT Density PWL=82
Air Voids PWL= 58

Lower value

Lot Pay Factor

Air Voids- 1.4 x 58-12= 69.2%
Mat Density- 0.5 x 82+55= 96%
Use lower of 2 values- 69.2%

Joint Density
Appendix E, page 5

93.3
95.0
97.0
96.0
X= 95.3
Sn= 1.58

Table 5

QL= (95.3-93.3) = 1.2658

1.58
PL= 93
Spec. page 21 par. 401-5.2(b)(3) if < 71% there is a 5% penalty

Partial Lots
spec page 20

Section P-401-5.1c

Sample Problem
Flow-Appendix D, page 5
Partial lot situation-6 sublots
8.0, 8.2, 8.5, 8.2, 8.9, 9.1
X= 8.5
Sn= 0.44
QL= x-L = 8.5-8.0 = 1.1364; PL= 88
Sn
0.44
QU= U-X = 16-8.5 = 18.75; PL= 100
Sn
0.44
PWL= 88 + 100-100= 88<90
Corrective Action! 401-5.2(b)(2)

Outliers
Spec -pg 23 401-5.2d
-pg 25 401-5.3c
MAT Density and Air Voids

Test for Outliers

MAT Density
94.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
x= 96.2
Sn= 1.71

QL= 96.2-96.3 = -.0585

1.71
PL= <50%

ASTM E 178, par. 4

T1= (x-x1)/Sn
T1= 96.2-94 = 1.286
1.71

Table 1-ASTM E 178

N=4

Upper 5% significance level 1.463

Since 1.286<1.463 the 94.0 test value is

not considered an outlier and is retained!

Sample Problem-Outliers
Air Voids
2.0, 4.8, 4.9, 5.0
X=4.2
Sn=1.45
QL= 4.2-2.0 = 1.5172; PL= 100
1.45
QU= 5-4.2 = 0.5517; PU= 69
1.45
PWL= (100+69)-100=69
ASTM E 178 par. 4
Tn= (x-x1)/Sn = 4.2-2.0 = 1.517
1.45
Table 1, ASTM E 178, N=4, 5% significance
T= 1.463<1.517
therefore 2.0 is the outlier and it is discarded

Resampling
401-5.3 page 25

MAT Density ONLY

(Appendix E-pg 4)
Prior MAT Density- 96, 97, 99, 100
PWL 82
4 new cores 96, 96, 97, 98
AVG-all 8, 97.4
Sn= 1.51
QL= x-L = 97.4-96.3 = .7337
Sn
1.51
Table 1, N= 8
PWL= 77

Questions?

Thanks!