Chapter 4 Probability

Notation and terms

Sample Space
Event
Compliment of an event
P( )
 Notation and terms
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes/the
population you are sampling from

For example: If you roll 1 fair die the sample space is

{1,2,3,4,5,6}
 Notation and terms
Event: Any collection of outcomes from the sample
space

For example: If you roll 1 fair die

A = {Odd}

B = {1, 2, 3, 5}

C = {6}
 Notation and terms
Compliment of an event: All of the outcomes in the
sample space that are not part of the event

For example: If you roll 1 fair die

A = {Odd} Ac = {Even}

B = {1, 2, 3, 5} Bc = {4, 6}

C = {6} Cc = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
 Notation and terms
Complement of an event: All of the outcomes in the
sample space that are not part of the event

A = {Odd} Ac = {Even}

The book uses the notation A Instead of Ac

 Notation and terms

P( )

The probability of happening

Basic Rules of Probability

0 p 1

P A P A c
1
P A 1 P A c

1 P A P Ac
 Equally likely outcomes
# of outcomes where event A occurs
P A
Total # of outcomes in the sample space
For example: If you roll 1 fair die
3 1
P Odd
6 2
4 2
P 1, 2, 3, 5
6 3
1
P 6
6
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 1 If 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

1A) Find the probability that they own an iPhone. 1764

4536

1B) Find the probability that they are over 55. 766
4536

756
1C) Find the probability that they do not own a smartphone.
4536
 Chapter 4 Probability
P A B is the probability that A happens GIVEN B Happens

Ex 2 You roll 1 fair six sided die:

1
2A) P 3|Odd 2B) P Odd| 3 1
3
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 3 If 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

3A) Find the probability that they own an Android phone given
they are 10 to 25. 425
1088

3B) Find the probability that they are 10 to 25 given they own
an Android phone. 425
2016

3C) P(do not own a smartphone | Over 55).

244
766
 Chapter 4 Probability
P A B is the probability that A happens GIVEN B Happens

Ex 4 You roll 2 fair six sided dice:

4A) Find the probability the second is a six given the first is a
six.
1
6

1
4A) P second is Odd| first is Odd
2
 Chapter 4 Probability
P A B is the probability that A happens GIVEN B Happens

A and B are Independent if and only if:

P A B P A and P B A P B
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 5 If 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

5A) Find the probability that they own an iPhone. 1764

4536
504
5B) Find the probability that they own an iPhone given they are
1296
26 to 40.
1296
5C) Find the probability that they are 26 to 40. 4536
504
5D) Find the probability that they are 26 to 40 given that they
1764
own an iPhone.

5E) Are owning an iPhone and being 26 to 40 independent

events ?
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

5E) Are owning an iPhone and being 26 to 40 independent?

A and B are Independent if and only if:

P A B P A and P B A P B
504 1764
P(iPhone|26 to 40) = P(iPhone) =
1296 4536

Are these equal?

504 1296
P(26 to 40|iPhone) = P(26 to 40) =
1764 4536
Are these equal?
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 6 If 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

6A) Find the probability that they own an iPhone and are 41 to
55. 642
4536

6B) Find the probability that they own an Android phone and
are 26 to 40. 638
4536

6C) Find the probability that they are 10 to 25 and over 55.

0
 And problems:
use the multiplication rule
Always try counting first, if that doesnt work then use one of these:

1) P A and B P A P B| A

2) P A and B and C P A P B| A P C| A and B

3) P A and B P A P B

IF and Only IF A and B are Independent

4) P A and B 0

IF and Only IF A and B are Disjoint

 Chapter 4 Probability
Ex 7 You roll 5 fair six sided dice:

7A) Find the probability they are all even.

5
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.03125
2 2 2 2 2 2 32

7B) Find the probability you roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in order.

5
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.0001286
6 6 6 6 6 6 7776

In both of these examples the events are Independent

 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 8 If 3 people surveyed are randomly selected, find the

probability that none of them own a smartphone.

8A) Assume the 3 people are selected with replacement.

756 756 756

0.0046296296
4536 4536 4536
8B) Assume the 3 people are selected without replacement.
756 755 754

0.0046143256
4536 4535 4534
 Chapter 4.3 Probability
1) P A or B P A P B P A and B

2) Recall that P A and B =0

IF and Only IF A and B are Disjoint so for

disjoint events the formula simplifies to:

P A or B P A P B 0

P A or B P A P B
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 9 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

9A) find the probability that they own an iPhone or are 41 to 55.

1764 1386 642 2508

0.5529
4536 4536 4536 4536
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 9 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

9A) find the probability that they own an iPhone or are 41 to 55.

1764 1386 642 2508

0.5529
4536 4536 4536 4536
9B) find the probability that they own an Android phone or are
26 to 40.

2016 1296 638 2674

0.5895
4536 4536 4536 4536
 Age Group
10 to 25 26 to 40 41 to 55 Over 55 Total
Cell iPhone 422 504 642 196 1764
Phone Android 425 638 627 326 2016
No smart phone 241 154 117 244 756
Total 1088 1296 1386 766 4536

Ex 9 1 person surveyed is randomly selected:

9A) find the probability that they own an iPhone or are 41 to 55.

1764 1386 642 2508

0.5529
4536 4536 4536 4536
9B) find the probability that they own an Android phone or are
26 to 40. 2016 1296 638 2674


0.5895
4536 4536 4536 4536

9C) find the probability that they are 10 to 25 or over 55.

1088 766 1854


0 0.4087
4536 4536 4536
 Chapter 4 Probability
P A or B P A P B P A and B

Ex 10 If 2 fair six sided dice are rolled find the probability

that the first or the second die is a 6

1 1 1 1 6 6 1 11
0.3056
6 6 6 6 36 36 36 36
 Chapter 4.3 Probability
Ex 11 If 1 card is drawn at random from a deck of cards find:

P(an Ace or a spade)

4 13 1 16
0.3077
52 52 52 52
 Chapter 4.4 Probability
Ex 12 If 25 people are randomly selected, find the probability
that at least 2 of them have the same birthday.
 Chapter 4.4 Probability
Ex 12 If 25 people are randomly selected, find the probability
that at least 2 of them have the same birthday.

P(at least 2 share a birthday) = 1 p (none share a birthday)

 Chapter 4.4 Probability

If 4 people are randomly selected, find the probability that

none of them have the same birthday.

365 364 363 362

P No Match 0.9836
365 365 365 365

P At least 1 Match 1 P No Match 1 0.9836 0.0164

 Chapter 4.4 Probability

If 7 people are randomly selected, find the probability that

none of them have the same birthday.

365 364
363
362 361
360
359
P No Match 0.9438
365 365
365
365 365
365
365

P At least 1 Match 1 P No Match 1 0.9438 0.0562

 Chapter 4.4 Probability
If 25 people are randomly selected, find the probability that
none of them have the same birthday.
 Chapter 4.4 Probability
If 25 people are randomly selected, find the probability that
none of them have the same birthday.