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DEMAND FORECASTING
&
MARKET POTENTIAL
ANALYSIS.
Market Potential
and
Market
Sizing Analysis
Market analysis help you know the economic
opportunity available to you in any geographic
market.
Whether you sell to consumers, to businesses,
or both, market sizing provides intelligence
you need to deploy sales and marketing
resources effectively.
Benefits of Market Potential Analysis
Survey Statistical
Method Method
Survey Method
Surveys are conducted to know about the
intentions of consumers (individuals, firms, or
industries),opinions of experts or of a markets.
There are two types of surveys
Census- all consumers /experts/markets are
surveyed,
Sample- selected subset is surveyed,
These methods are suitable for short term
forecasts due to nature of consumers
intensions .
The important survey methods are
Survey
Methods
Semi Average
Method
Time Series
Method
Moving Average
Method
Least Square
Method
Time Series Analysis
It is a arrangement of statistical data in a chronological
order in accordance with its time of occurance.The data may
be presented in the form of table or a graph.
Time series analysis can be used for demand forecasting by
first evaluating ,extracting &interpreting its various
components, so as to make it understandable & explainable.
The four components are
Trend,
Seasonal Variations,
Cyclical Variations,
Residual Variations
Depending on the nature, complexity &extent of the
analysis required , there are various types of models that can
be used to describe time series data.
Trend- it shows the underlying ,long-term tendency of the data ,
which may be result of basic developments in population, capital,
technology,etc. any event of future period can be forecasted using
trend line.
Seasonal Variation- these are short term cyclic fluctuations in
the data about the trend ,which is measured in an interval in a year.
The word season can have different meanings, it may be related to
weather ,holidays, customs, festivals, fashions, etc. Here , a series
fluctuates according to seasons of the year.
Cyclical Variations in this case the length of cycle is
generally longer than one year. Study of variations is essential for
predicting the turning points in business cycles. Cyclical variations
are affected by swings in general economic activity , wherein
recovery & boom are followed by recession & depressions &vice
versa.
Residual Variation these are disturbance due to
unforeseen events such as weather conditions, illness, strikes,
lockouts, riots, fires,wars,transport breakdown, & many more.
Graphical Method