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:
= Y = T =C
= S = R


| | | |
1 2 3 4



MA5=D1+D2+D3+D4/ 4
MA5=40+32+36+25/4=127/4=32
:

.
:

.


.


4

10

:
MA5=(4X40)+(3X32)+(2X30)+(1X25)/10=34


January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 (10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3
May 19 (12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3
June 23 (13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
July 26 (16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3


3
2
1
6

January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 [(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 121/6
May 19 [(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (12)]/6 = 141/3
June 23 [(3 x 19) + (2 x 16) + (13)]/6 = 17
July 26 [(3 x 23) + (2 x 19) + (16)]/6 = 201/2
 -2

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) )At-1 Ft-1
= 2/N+1

8 150 170

( )1 :
)F9= F8+ (A8-F8
=150+0.10(170-150) = 150+2
=152


2003 2004 2005 2003-2005
Jan 80 85 105 90 94
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 82 85 94
Apr 90 95 115 100 94
May 113 125 131 123 94
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
 Seasonal Index Example

2003 2004 2005 2003-2005
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 82 -2003
93 2005 94 85
=90
Apr 95 115
100 94
May 113 125 131 123 94
= 90/94 = .957
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94


2003 2004 2005 2003-2005
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90 95 115 100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102 113 105 94 1.117
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90 95 90 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851

Demand
2003 2004 2005 2003-2005
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85
85 2006 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90
95
= 1,200 115
100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 1,200 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102 Jan 113 x .957 = 96 94
105 1.117
12
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
1,200
Sept 85 90
Feb 95 x90
.851 = 85 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 12 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851

.

.
.
Y
t


y^ = a + bx

Sxy - nxy
=b
Sx2 - nx2

a = y - bx


Year ) (x y x2 xy
1999 1 74 1 74
2000 2 79 4 158
2001 3 80 9 240
2002 4 90 16 360
2003 5 105 25 525
2004 6 142 36 852
2005 7 122 49 854
x = 28 y = 692 x2 = 140 xy = 3,063
x=4 y = 98.86

xy - nxy )3,063 - (7)(4)(98.86

=b = = 10.54
x - nx
2 2 140 - (7)(4 )2

a = y - bx = 98.86 - 10.54(4) = 56.70




.








.

:

(y - yc)2
Sy,x =
n-2

where y = y-value of each data point

yc = computed value of the dependent
variable, from the regression
equation
n = number of data points


y2 - ay - bxy
= Sy,x
n-2


y2 - ay - bxy 39.5 - 1.75(15) - .25(51.5)
Sy,x = =
n-2 6-2

Sy,x = .306 4.0

3.25
3.0
Sales
The standard error
2.0
of the estimate is
$30,600 in sales 1.0

| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll